MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Windyplayer on February 01, 2017, 12:40:47 PM
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Good to be back in and around the bubble!
From SI yesterday:
After beating Creighton and Villanova, Marquette (14–7, 5–4) dropped a home game to Providence. Sure, why not? The surprising loss notwithstanding, the Golden Eagles took a quantum leap in the right direction with their upset of Villanova last week. They now have to be favored to get an at-large bid. In fact, they likely already have the necessary signature wins to get into the Dance. At this point, Marquette may just need to avoid bad losses the rest of the way.
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/01/31/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-acc-big-east-sec-pac-12 (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/01/31/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-acc-big-east-sec-pac-12)
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From CBS...
The Golden Eagles weren't even really on the radar until they went into Creighton and won on Jan. 21, which was the first game that the Bluejays were without their star point guard Maurice Watson Jr. That was still an impressive win, but it was followed up by an even more impressive one at home over Villanova.
Those two wins give Marquette a chance to compete for a spot in the tournament, but they will need to show some consistency. The Golden Eagles got a little too high off of those wins and followed them with a home loss to Providence. However, that is the worst of their seven losses, and if that remains true six weeks from now, they will give themselves a good chance to get in the field.
Marquette has a schedule of opportunity. The Golden Eagles have home games left with Butler, Creighton and Xavier, all of which are great chances to resume build. They just need to make sure they take care of business in most of the other games too.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-why-indianas-fate-hinges-on-its-next-four-games/ (http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-why-indianas-fate-hinges-on-its-next-four-games/)
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Thanks for sharing. The CBS "Bubble Watch" is pretty lazy.
Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Indiana, OK State and Marquette are the 5 teams he analyzes for his bubble watch?
Lol...ok.
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Plenty of bubblicious games tonight:
Seton Hall @ Xavier
Bama @ Arkansas
GaTech @ Clemson
Cuse @ NC State
TCU @ KState
FSU @ Miami
Texas Tech @ Texas
USC @ Washington
Richmond @ VCU
Never too early to talk about the bubble.
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Lunardi has us as a #10 seed against Northwestern. That would be fun...though the whole world would be against us.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
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Lunardi has us as a #10 seed against Northwestern. That would be fun...though the whole world would be against us.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
Also worth noting that Lunardi doesn't have us as LAST FOUR IN or LAST FOUR BYES. Looks like there are still at least 8 teams behind us and the cut line.
Not all hope is lost, fellas.
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Also worth noting that Lunardi doesn't have us as LAST FOUR IN or LAST FOUR BYES. Looks like there are still at least 8 teams behind us and the cut line.
Not all hope is lost, fellas.
Nope, take care of DePaul and head back to MKE for some home cooking.
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Nope, take care of DePaul and head back to MKE for some home cooking.
Yep. Need 2 of the next 3. Saturday is the first must win of the season.
The other three 10 seeds are part of the "last 4 byes" so it seems we would currently be the 9th team in.
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If we can finish 8-1 at home and two road wins we're good. Still doable.
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Palm has six Big East schools in, with Georgetown as first four that is out.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Palm has six Big East schools in, with Georgetown as first four that is out.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
Still 8 teams with a chance to dance from the BE. Impressive. Reminds me of the B12 from the past few years.
Palm has us as a 10. He doesn't do "last 4 byes", but were somewhere between 5th to last and 9th to last team in.
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If we can finish 8-1 at home and two road wins we're good. Still doable.
Why so many games or are you counting BET?
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Why so many games or are you counting BET?
A total of 8-1 at home. Already lost that 1 to Providence. So what he is saying is win out at home, and win two on the road. That would get us to 11-7, in which case we're like a 7 or 8 seed probably.
Really just need to get to 10 to feel safe prior to BET.
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A total of 8-1 at home. Already lost that 1 to Providence. So what he is saying is win out at home, and win two on the road. That would get us to 11-7, in which case we're like a 7 or 8 seed probably.
Really just need to get to 10 to feel safe prior to BET.
This.
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Keep playin' like horsechit and da only bubbles we'll be watchin' are those made while sittin' in da bathtub, hey?
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Still 8 teams with a chance to dance from the BE. Impressive. Reminds me of the B12 from the past few years.
Palm has us as a 10. He doesn't do "last 4 byes", but were somewhere between 5th to last and 9th to last team in.
I don't see any more then 5 getting in.
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Yep. Need 2 of the next 3. Saturday is the first must win of the season.
The other three 10 seeds are part of the "last 4 byes" so it seems we would currently be the 9th team in.
Agreed. A loss would be absolutely devastating for the program and would be a crushing blow to Wojo's development as a coach. I know that's painting with a broad stroke, but at the end of the day, it's about wins and losses.
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This.
Ok sorry read it wrong
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Still 8 teams with a chance to dance from the BE. Impressive. Reminds me of the B12 from the past few years.
Palm has us as a 10. He doesn't do "last 4 byes", but were somewhere between 5th to last and 9th to last team in.
With the Nova & Creighton wins we are safely in with 10 regular season wins we would be in 4th or tied for 4th.
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Keep playin' like horsechit and da only bubbles we'll be watchin' are those made while sittin' in da bathtub, hey?
Constipated, hey?
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Ok sorry read it wrong
You should be.
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A total of 8-1 at home. Already lost that 1 to Providence. So what he is saying is win out at home, and win two on the road. That would get us to 11-7, in which case we're like a 7 or 8 seed probably.
Really just need to get to 10 to feel safe prior to BET.
We'll be favored @depaul, @providence, @gtown, St Johns. Assume we'll be underdogs against Xavier x2, Creighton and Butler. You think we get 6 out of this? 5 is a stretch in my opinion. 4/8 is most realistic in my opinion. In which case we have some work to do in BE tourney.
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We'll be favored @depaul, @providence, @gtown, St Johns. Assume we'll be underdogs against Xavier x2, Creighton and Butler. You think we get 6 out of this? 5 is a stretch in my opinion. 4/8 is most realistic in my opinion. In which case we have some work to do in BE tourney.
Depends on who shows up. Also have you looked at X or Creighton recently? They aren't exactly world beaters themselves.
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We'll be favored @depaul, @providence, @gtown, St Johns. Assume we'll be underdogs against Xavier x2, Creighton and Butler. You think we get 6 out of this? 5 is a stretch in my opinion. 4/8 is most realistic in my opinion. In which case we have some work to do in BE tourney.
No way we are favored at GT and probably not Providence either. Likely XU at home though.
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Depends on who shows up. Also have you looked at X or Creighton recently? They aren't exactly world beaters themselves.
I watch as much BE basketball as I can. Saw Creighton beat Butler at Hinkle. Saw X beat a St. Johns team that just destroyed us. Beatable, no doubt, but could also blow us out if we're brickin 3s.
I'm not confident enough in our offense to consistently make up for the total ineptitude of the defense.
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No way we are favored at GT and probably not Provdence either. Probably XU at home though.
Furthers my point. Not getting 6 out 8 games, of which we are favored in 3.
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We'll be favored @depaul, @providence, @gtown, St Johns. Assume we'll be underdogs against Xavier x2, Creighton and Butler. You think we get 6 out of this? 5 is a stretch in my opinion. 4/8 is most realistic in my opinion. In which case we have some work to do in BE tourney.
I think this is off in an number of ways. I think we can get to 5-3, but if we play like we did last night, getting to 4 will be difficult.
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I think this is off in an number of ways. I think we can get to 5-3, but if we play like we did last night, getting to 4 will be difficult.
Which is why I said 4 is most realistic. Sure we could get to 5. We also could win 3. Or 2. I just think 4 is realistic. Even if we drop one of the four "easy" games, there's a chance we get one back from Butler, CU, X.
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I don't see any more then 5 getting in.
Nova, Butler, Creighton and X are basically all locks. They're all making the NCAA tournament. Book it.
Marquette and Seton Hall will duke it out for the 5th spot. Georgetown and Providence aren't too far behind.
I think 6 is a very legitimate possibility. 7 probably only happens if team like Gtown, Providence or SJU wins the BET. But there are 8 teams that are still alive for at larges, even if Georgetown's is hanging by a thread.
With the Nova & Creighton wins we are safely in with 10 regular season wins we would be in 4th or tied for 4th.
With last nights loss, I don't see us finishing above 5th. Maybe if we sweep X, but I don't see us winning at X.
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RPI Forecast has 19-11 as ever so slightly more probable than 18-12...basically a coin flip.
The also has MU favored vs DePaul and St. John's by 9 plus, 5.4 underdogs at Xavier. The other 5 games range from 1 point favorites to 2 point under dogs.
Win the two we're supposed to and 3 coin flips. Otherwise work left heading to BET.
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We got this, players will get their heads back on track. We are fine, just a set back
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Major divergence between predictive models (KenPom, et al) and the abomination that is the RPI this year. Marquette is 37 in KenPom, but only 65 in RPI. The committee has made it clear they intend to move away from RPI, but how much will it factor in this year.
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Major divergence between predictive models (KenPom, et al) and the abomination that is the RPI this year. Marquette is 37 in KenPom, but only 65 in RPI. The committee has made it clear they intend to move away from RPI, but how much will it factor in this year.
Was up to 40ish after Nova game. Still have time to improve RPI. Posted in another thread, but 11 wins we'll be mid 40s, 10 wins mid 50s, 9 wins mid 60s. Obviously depends a bit on which games we win and lose, but generally thats what it looks like when running a few scenarios. This is pre BET.
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I think this is off in an number of ways. I think we can get to 5-3, but if we play like we did last night, getting to 4 another win will be difficult.
FIFY
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I watch as much BE basketball as I can. Saw Creighton beat Butler at Hinkle. Saw X beat a St. Johns team that just destroyed us. Beatable, no doubt, but could also blow us out if we're brickin 3s.
I'm not confident enough in our offense to consistently make up for the total ineptitude of the defense.
so you're basing this entire thing on the transitive property? That doesn't work in college basketball and if you think it does then [insert insult here]
For crying out loud we're playing Depaul on Saturday, we destroyed Depaul but they beat Providence who beat us. One of two things happened after you read that, either your head exploded trying to figure it out or you realized that saying something like "saw x beat a St. Johns team that just destroyed us" is idiotic.
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so you're basing this entire thing on the transitive property? That doesn't work in college basketball and if you think it does then [insert insult here]
For crying out loud we're playing Depaul on Saturday, we destroyed Depaul but they beat Providence who beat us. One of two things happened after you read that, either your head exploded trying to figure it out or you realized that saying something like "saw x beat a St. Johns team that just destroyed us" is idiotic.
Slow down, James.
Highlight the part where I said "Xavier beat St. Johns, therefore they will beat us," please. Reading is hard.
You asked if I had seen X or Creighton lately. I told you that I had, and gave you the results of their recent games. I also said that they are beatable. Which part of this implies that I believe the transitive property applies to CBB?
And if you think losing to Depaul is not a possibility, I'd think again. Our lack of defense allows us to lose to anyone in the league.
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Only game that matters is Saturday's.
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We'll be favored @depaul, @providence, @gtown, St Johns. Assume we'll be underdogs against Xavier x2, Creighton and Butler. You think we get 6 out of this? 5 is a stretch in my opinion. 4/8 is most realistic in my opinion. In which case we have some work to do in BE tourney.
We won't be favored at Providence or at Georgetown. We may, however, be favored at home vs Creighton, Xavier and Butler.
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Only game that matters is Saturday's.
Thanks, Coach!
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That didn't work against SJU. Let's look ahead and see what happens.
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Slow down, James.
Highlight the part where I said "Xavier beat St. Johns, therefore they will beat us," please. Reading is hard.
You asked if I had seen X or Creighton lately. I told you that I had, and gave you the results of their recent games. I also said that they are beatable. Which part of this implies that I believe the transitive property applies to CBB?
And if you think losing to Depaul is not a possibility, I'd think again. Our lack of defense allows us to lose to anyone in the league.
It's JP, thank you.
Admittedly I was venting more because of a sh*t day at work. My bad for rant.
I also chose not to read the "beatable" portion because it's easier to respond irrationally (see how I met your mothers chain of screaming)
Losing to DePaul is always possible I was there in 2010, and there two years ago so I know it's possible but I do not see it after being at this years DePaul game.
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Only game that matters is Saturday's.
Hmm. Definitely not true. Winning Saturday and losing out would be pretty catastrophic.
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Hmm. Definitely not true. Winning Saturday and losing out would be pretty catastrophic.
We can worry about the losing out part after Saturday.
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Nova, Butler, Creighton and X are basically all locks. They're all making the NCAA tournament. Book it.
Marquette and Seton Hall will duke it out for the 5th spot. Georgetown and Providence aren't too far behind.
I think 6 is a very legitimate possibility. 7 probably only happens if team like Gtown, Providence or SJU wins the BET. But there are 8 teams that are still alive for at larges, even if Georgetown's is hanging by a thread.
With last nights loss, I don't see us finishing above 5th. Maybe if we sweep X, but I don't see us winning at X.
Not saying we win 10 for sure just responding to some people who think if we get to 10 wins it is no a sure bid. If we get to 10 wins we'll be dancing.
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Not saying we win 10 for sure just responding to some people who think if we get to 10 wins it is no a sure bid. If we get to 10 wins we'll be dancing.
Why do you think this? Is it because the bubble right now is soft/weak?
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Nova, Butler, Creighton and X are basically all locks. They're all making the NCAA tournament. Book it.
Marquette and Seton Hall will duke it out for the 5th spot. Georgetown and Providence aren't too far behind.
I think 6 is a very legitimate possibility. 7 probably only happens if team like Gtown, Providence or SJU wins the BET. But there are 8 teams that are still alive for at larges, even if Georgetown's is hanging by a thread.
With last nights loss, I don't see us finishing above 5th. Maybe if we sweep X, but I don't see us winning at X.
Providence is 4-7 in conference. Seton Hall is 3-6. St. John's has a losing record. None of them are making the tourney. If they go on a major winning streak, means that someone else is slipping and it could be us. I don't see anyone outside the top 4 winning the conference tournament.
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Why do you think this? Is it because the bubble right now is soft/weak?
Yes, and because if we get to 10, we will have enough good wins to offset any bad losses. Creighton and Villanova are already strong wins, and to get to 10 we would (at worst) get wins against DePaul, St. John's, Providence, Georgetown, Xavier.
What if we lose to one of the first couple but still get to 10? That means more wins against Butler, Creighton, or Xavier. Bottom line, get to 10, we get in.
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Providence is 4-7 in conference. Seton Hall is 3-6. St. John's has a losing record. None of them are making the tourney. If they go on a major winning streak, means that someone else is slipping and it could be us. I don't see anyone outside the top 4 winning the conference tournament.
Pay more attention. Seton Hall is very much still alive. Gtown making a run. PC far from dead.
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Yes, and because if we get to 10, we will have enough good wins to offset any bad losses. Creighton and Villanova are already strong wins, and to get to 10 we would (at worst) get wins against DePaul, St. John's, Providence, Georgetown, Xavier.
What if we lose to one of the first couple but still get to 10? That means more wins against Butler, Creighton, or Xavier. Bottom line, get to 10, we get in.
Lets say we lost to either Depaul saturday or St johns again would you think we would need to beat X both times?
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Lets say we lost to either Depaul saturday or St johns again would you think we would need to beat X both times?
They just need to get to 10. Doesn't matter how.
9 probably doesn't do it w a loss to DePaul tho. 9 May do it with some other combos of wins / losses.
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They just need to get to 10. Doesn't matter how.
9 probably doesn't do it w a loss to DePaul tho. 9 May do it with some other combos of wins / losses.
This and if we win 10 we should end up 4th or tied for 4th. Obvious more than 3 teams will get in.
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Lets say we lost to either Depaul saturday or St johns again would you think we would need to beat X both times?
10 wins. That's all it comes down to. Whatever the losses are, as long as we have 10+ Big East wins, we're dancing.
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10 wins. That's all it comes down to. Whatever the losses are, as long as we have 10+ Big East wins, we're dancing.
I think so, but I wonder if losing to Depaul would be a bad enough loss that it could keep us out with 10 wins.
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I think so, but I wonder if losing to Depaul would be a bad enough loss that it could keep us out with 10 wins.
No, because there would be an extra win vs Butler, Creighton, or Xavier to offset it.
MU already has two top 25 wins. Getting to 10 wins means at least one more, and at least two more if we lose to DePaul. No way a team with 4 top 25 wins gets left out with the soft bubble.
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I think so, but I wonder if losing to Depaul would be a bad enough loss that it could keep us out with 10 wins.
Here's my expectation of likelihood of remaining games:
v St. John's
@ DePaul
@ Providence
v Xavier
@ Georgetown
v Creighton
v Butler
@ Xavier
If we lose DePaul, that means getting a win against either Creighton or Butler, or getting Xavier on the road. Right now, teams like Georgia Tech (loss at home to Ohio), Kansas State (2 top-100 wins), Clemson (loss to #149 Oklahoma), TCU (1 top-50 win, Illinois State), and Wichita State (Zero top-100 wins) are on the inside of the bubble. We can suffer one road loss even against a bad team, knowing it would offset by a top-20 win.
The bubble is awful. Everyone has some pretty serious blemishes. The St. John's loss is our worst by a wide margin. If we lose to DePaul, then finish 5-2 with 2 of those wins over top-20 opponents, I think we'll be okay.
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Here's my expectation of likelihood of remaining games:
v St. John's
@ DePaul
@ Providence
v Xavier
@ Georgetown
v Creighton
v Butler
@ Xavier
If we lose DePaul, that means getting a win against either Creighton or Butler, or getting Xavier on the road. Right now, teams like Georgia Tech (loss at home to Ohio), Kansas State (2 top-100 wins), Clemson (loss to #149 Oklahoma), TCU (1 top-50 win, Illinois State), and Wichita State (Zero top-100 wins) are on the inside of the bubble. We can suffer one road loss even against a bad team, knowing it would offset by a top-20 win.
The bubble is awful. Everyone has some pretty serious blemishes. The St. John's loss is our worst by a wide margin. If we lose to DePaul, then finish 5-2 with 2 of those wins over top-20 opponents, I think we'll be okay.
Yup. This is exactly why I think 9-9 may actually get us in. 9-9 with a loss to Depaul seems less likely, but say we go 4-4 in the rest of the way with wins @ Depaul, vs. SJU, and any of the other two games you listed....our Nova and Creighton wins are still going to look so much better than anyone else around the bubble. I don't want to test this logic, but I still think MU has at least a 50/50 chance to dance at 9-9.
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Just FYI - all but three of the updated brackets since the SJU loss still have MU in the field.
Still an 8 seed overall.
http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/)
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Here's my expectation of likelihood of remaining games:
v St. John's
@ DePaul
@ Providence
v Xavier
@ Georgetown
v Creighton
v Butler
@ Xavier
If we lose DePaul, that means getting a win against either Creighton or Butler, or getting Xavier on the road. Right now, teams like Georgia Tech (loss at home to Ohio), Kansas State (2 top-100 wins), Clemson (loss to #149 Oklahoma), TCU (1 top-50 win, Illinois State), and Wichita State (Zero top-100 wins) are on the inside of the bubble. We can suffer one road loss even against a bad team, knowing it would offset by a top-20 win.
The bubble is awful. Everyone has some pretty serious blemishes. The St. John's loss is our worst by a wide margin. If we lose to DePaul, then finish 5-2 with 2 of those wins over top-20 opponents, I think we'll be okay.
DePaul- W
Beat providence, St. John's, and Georgetown.
Steal another 1 at home and that is 10 conference wins.
I honestly think 9-9 sneaks us in. May be a 10 seed but 9-9 gets you inthis year.
The problem is this year the big east is as competitive as I remember. Every game is a chance to lose or win.
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Just FYI - all but three of the updated brackets since the SJU loss still have MU in the field.
Still an 8 seed overall.
http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/)
9 seed over all today. And 5 spots away from the "last 4 in"
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9 seed over all today. And 5 spots away from the "last 4 in"
That hasn't been updated since yesterday am. Not that our DePaul win does much, but it was such a crazy day in CBB that it's worth mentioning.
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That hasn't been updated since yesterday am. Not that our DePaul win does much, but it was such a crazy day in CBB that it's worth mentioning.
True. Just looked up yesterday's schedule. A lot of teams took it on the chin.
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DePaul- W
Beat providence, St. John's, and Georgetown.
Steal another 1 at home and that is 10 conference wins.
I honestly think 9-9 sneaks us in. May be a 10 seed but 9-9 gets you inthis year.
The problem is this year the big east is as competitive as I remember. Every game is a chance to lose or win.
I'm confident about St. John's at home. Not particularly confident about either Georgetown or Providence on the road. Georgetown seems to be playing a lot better. Hopefully we can steal one of those.
I actually think we'll need to get two out of the Butler, Xavier, and Creighton home games. Beating Butler on Tuesday would give some breathing room.
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No, because there would be an extra win vs Butler, Creighton, or Xavier to offset it.
MU already has two top 25 wins. Getting to 10 wins means at least one more, and at least two more if we lose to DePaul. No way a team with 4 top 25 wins gets left out with the soft bubble.
The flaw here is that you're assuming Butler, Creighton and X will all be top 25 teams as of Selection Sunday. It's possible... but certainly not a given.
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The flaw here is that you're assuming Butler, Creighton and X will all be top 25 teams as of Selection Sunday. It's possible... but certainly not a given.
fair. But atleast two of them will be.
It will be nova and a combo of the other 2. Get one or 2 more wins there and you're between 2 & 4 wins vs top 25
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The flaw here is that you're assuming Butler, Creighton and X will all be top 25 teams as of Selection Sunday. It's possible... but certainly not a given.
Dorsnt matter, quality wins regardless. Shoot well n we can beat all 3
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We are 3-0 in return games this season. If that continues we're going at least 6-1 the rest of the way! #noseriessweeps
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Dorsnt matter, quality wins regardless. Shoot well n we can beat all 3
When the metric is "top 25 wins" then yes, it dors (sic) matter. The post said, "No way a team with 4 top 25 wins gets left out with the soft bubble."
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When the metric is "top 25 wins" then yes, it dors (sic) matter. The post said, "No way a team with 4 top 25 wins gets left out with the soft bubble."
You could also take it to mean no way a team with wins for Nova, Creighton, X and Butler are left out of the tournament. Which is true. Don't always have to take things so literally.
You could also look at top 25 as the RPI top 25. That probably means more to the committee than AP rankings anyways. And there is very little chance those four teams drop out of the RPI top 25.
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You could also take it to mean no way a team with wins for Nova, Creighton, X and Butler are left out of the tournament. Which is true. Don't always have to take things so literally.
You could also look at top 25 as the RPI top 25. That probably means more to the committee than AP rankings anyways. And there is very little chance those four teams drop out of the RPI top 25.
Oh, I thought he WAS talking about RPI top 25. I disagree that there's very little chance those four drop out.
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I actually think we'll need to get two out of the Butler, Xavier, and Creighton home games. Beating Butler on Tuesday would give some breathing room.
20-11, 10-8 in conference, wins against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and @ Creighton, no bad losses...that's better than IN, that's a 6-7 seed.
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Oh, I thought he WAS talking about RPI top 25. I disagree that there's very little chance those four drop out.
I haven't ran the numbers but at 2,8,12 and 15, they're all pretty safe for now.
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20-11, 10-8 in conference, wins against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and @ Creighton, no bad losses...that's better than IN, that's a 6-7 seed.
Completely agree. Losing at home to Providence really diminished the margin for error. I'd rather not go into Selection Sunday at 9-9.
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20-11, 10-8 in conference, wins against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and @ Creighton, no bad losses...that's better than IN, that's a 6-7 seed.
I believe we only have 30 games this year, chose to schedule 1 less than allowed. Dumb, the potential fifference between 20 n 19 in tge commitees eyes is big imo
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I'm confident about St. John's at home. Not particularly confident about either Georgetown or Providence on the road. Georgetown seems to be playing a lot better. Hopefully we can steal one of those.
I actually think we'll need to get two out of the Butler, Xavier, and Creighton home games. Beating Butler on Tuesday would give some breathing room.
I'm pretty confident we win at providence.
I do think we lose the Gtown game tho.
So need 2 of Butler, Creighton and X(2).
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One of the last teams in on bracket matrix right now is Miami (FL). Let's compare...
Marquette: 15-8, 6-5, wins Vanderbilt (n), @Georgia, @Creighton, vs Nova, loss @St Johns
Miami: 15-7, 5-5, wins Stanford, Rutgers, NC State x2, UNC, loss @Wake
Crap...was hoping that would be more obvious of a difference when I started typing
How about Michigan?: 14-9, 4-6, wins Marquette (n), Indiana, loss @Illinois
We may only be one game better than Michigan overall, and they did beat us (probably their best win), but we are still several steps ahead of them when it comes to tourney seeding.
Take care of business, and even if we end up at 9-9 enough other teams like Michigan or Miami will stumble and we'll be ok.
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I'm pretty confident we win at providence.
I do think we lose the Gtown game tho.
So need 2 of Butler, Creighton and X(2).
I know we certainly can win. It's just hard for me to be confident about any remaining road games.
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Just beat Butler Tuesday.
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Here's something to continue to pay attention to. Look at the standings on the left. Note the clear break between Marquette in 5th and everyone below them from 6th down. Closest competition at the moment is a game and a half back. Let's keep it that way. The committee likes gaps. Makes their job easier.
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I was curious to see how the women's team is doing when it comes to their tournament chances, and it looks like they are in a similar position to the men. ESPN's bracketologist has them in the last four in as a 10 seed.
Currently they are 17-6 (8-4) and in 3rd place in the Big East (the new women's Big East is not as competitive as the new men's league). They have three top 25 wins (Arizona St, @Oregon St, and @DePaul) and what looks like an easy-ish last 6 games (DePaul is the only team ahead of them still to play). Win the home games and easy roadies and they'll be in for sure. Lose a stinker and things could get dicey.
It would be awesome to end the men's three year NCAA drought and the women's 5 year drought in the same season.
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Womens BET is at the Al this year. Hopefully they get some decent butts in the seats.
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Per joe lunardi: as of yesterday at 1045 am before the DePaul game:
...30-VaTech, 31-Day, 32-IowaSt, 33-VCU, 34-Ark, 35-Marq, 36-OklaSt, 37-Clem, 38-Ind, 39-Minn, 40-Tcu, 41-Mich, 42-GaTech, 43-KanSt...
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Per joe lunardi: as of yesterday at 1045 am before the DePaul game:
...30-VaTech, 31-Day, 32-IowaSt, 33-VCU, 34-Ark, 35-Marq, 36-OklaSt, 37-Clem, 38-Ind, 39-Minn, 40-Tcu, 41-Mich, 42-GaTech, 43-KanSt...
And while I normally 'hate' the Rodents, it was important that they take care of business today against Tanned Tommy's bunch. That helped.
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I was curious to see how the women's team is doing when it comes to their tournament chances, and it looks like they are in a similar position to the men. ESPN's bracketologist has them in the last four in as a 10 seed.
Currently they are 17-6 (8-4) and in 3rd place in the Big East (the new women's Big East is not as competitive as the new men's league). They have three top 25 wins (Arizona St, @Oregon St, and @DePaul) and what looks like an easy-ish last 6 games (DePaul is the only team ahead of them still to play). Win the home games and easy roadies and they'll be in for sure. Lose a stinker and things could get dicey.
Ladies about to lose at home to St John's today.
It would be awesome to end the men's three year NCAA drought and the women's 5 year drought in the same season.
Ladies lost today to St John's
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Womens BET is at the Al this year. Hopefully they get some decent butts in the seats.
In yoga pants too, hey?
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Here's something to continue to pay attention to. Look at the standings on the left. Note the clear break between Marquette in 5th and everyone below them from 6th down. Closest competition at the moment is a game and a half back. Let's keep it that way. The committee likes gaps. Makes their job easier.
With the Creighton and Nova wins, MU has the potential to go 1-1 against each of the current conf top 4. To get ahead of myself, that would be huge for the resume. Beat Butler.
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With the Creighton and Nova wins, MU has the potential to go 1-1 against each of the current conf top 4. To get ahead of myself, that would be huge for the resume. Beat Butler.
Hell, with a win against all 4, we might be dancing at 8-10 (though 2 losses to SJU would be tough to overcome)
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Up to a #9 seed per Lunardi. Six Big East teams in--granted SHU is last team in.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
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Up to a #9 seed per Lunardi. Six Big East teams in--granted SHU is last team in.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
For those that don't follow that closely, Clemson and Illinois State both took 40-50 points beatings on Saturday and are still in the field. Clemson is 3-7 in the ACC. Illinois State's best wins are New Mexico and Wichita State (who beat them by 41 in the return trip on Saturday) and losses to San Francisco, Tulsa, Murray State, TCU and Wichita...
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As Jekyll and Hyde as this season has been for MU, oddly enough, they still pretty much control their own destiny for 2nd in the BE with games remaining against Butler, Creighton and Xavier x2.
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For those that don't follow that closely, Clemson and Illinois State both took 40-50 points beatings on Saturday and are still in the field. Clemson is 3-7 in the ACC. Illinois State's best wins are New Mexico and Wichita State (who beat them by 41 in the return trip on Saturday) and losses to San Francisco, Tulsa, Murray State, TCU and Wichita...
The bubble this season is weird.
Not a lot of top midmajors making a push.
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I believe we only have 30 games this year, chose to schedule 1 less than allowed. Dumb, the potential fifference between 20 n 19 in tge commitees eyes is big imo
I agree with this analysis.
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I doubt 1 extra buy game would make a difference.
Bubble is very weak......
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Anyone know why we didn't schedule an extra buy game? Was it because of a home and home falling through or something else?
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Latest bracket matrix has Marquette a 10 seed, with 7 teams between us and the cut line.
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Anyone know why we didn't schedule an extra buy game? Was it because of a home and home falling through or something else?
my understanding is that the way RPI works and who was left. So if we scheduled a game against the terrible teams that were left it would actually drag down the overall RPI rather than help it. I wish we had at least nabbed a D2 game or something but whatever.
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Anyone know why we didn't schedule an extra buy game? Was it because of a home and home falling through or something else?
I believe it was supposed to be a home and home with Utah but it fell through. Only option was to get a grambling level opponent. Hurts more than it helps
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I believe we only have 30 games this year, chose to schedule 1 less than allowed. Dumb, the potential fifference between 20 n 19 in tge commitees eyes is big imo
No, dumb is your response to it. If we got a 20th win against Grambling, it would hurt our RPI, SOS, computer numbers, and overall resume. The only way it would have been worth adding another game was if it was a top-225 team.
It was a smart move by Marquette's athletic department to NOT make a money grab by adding another crapcake, especially when you consider that so many of our opponents (Howard, Pitt, Michigan, IUPUI, SIUE, Western Carolina) have crapped the bed in conference play.
Believe it or not, St. Francis is proving to be one of our better non-con opponents from the RPI perspective, at least recently. 8-4 in conference and a legit contender in the NEC.
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Lunardi's new bracket has us as a 9 seed playing USC and Gonzaga the 1 seed. Keep in mind USC is KR old school. Also i think we could take the Zags
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Lunardi's new bracket has us as a 9 seed playing USC and Gonzaga the 1 seed. Keep in mind USC is KR old school. Also i think we could take the Zags
and he once again noted on twitter that the bubble is historically bad this year.
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I believe it was supposed to be a home and home with Utah but it fell through. Only option was to get a grambling level opponent. Hurts more than it helps
This
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Lunardi's new bracket has us as a 9 seed playing USC and Gonzaga the 1 seed. Keep in mind USC is KR old school. Also i think we could take the Zags
If we can beat Villanova, we can beat anybody. But let's earn our way into the tournament first.
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I believe it was supposed to be a home and home with Utah but it fell through. Only option was to get a grambling level opponent. Hurts more than it helps
I believe they put it off a year and still plan to play Utah next year, but we'll see.
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I believe they put it off a year and still plan to play Utah next year, but we'll see.
The series had to do a Mormon mission before getting started. Happens all the time.
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Well that is certainly a lot more negative on us than most.
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I doubt 1 extra buy game would make a difference.
Bubble is very weak......
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Trying to figure out how this dance card thing even works. Their % chance of bids seem way off - not just for sure us, but everybody after the gimmes. Even if it was % chance of bid TODAY, its still seems way off. Never looked at this site before, so not sure how their numbers are intended to work.
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Lunardi's new bracket has us as a 9 seed playing USC and Gonzaga the 1 seed. Keep in mind USC is KR old school. Also i think we could take the Zags
Would be a good draw relative to getting that seeding.
But we'd be in Utah playing two west coast teams
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I believe they put it off a year and still plan to play Utah next year, but we'll see.
I believe so too. Makes more sense actually because now Bailey might get a chance to play in Salt Lake.
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Trying to figure out how this dance card thing even works. Their % chance of bids seem way off - not just for sure us, but everybody after the gimmes. Even if it was % chance of bid TODAY, its still seems way off. Never looked at this site before, so not sure how their numbers are intended to work.
[/quote
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I doubt 1 extra buy game would make a difference.
Bubble is very weak......
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Georgetown ahead of us?
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No, dumb is your response to it. If we got a 20th win against Grambling, it would hurt our RPI, SOS, computer numbers, and overall resume. The only way it would have been worth adding another game was if it was a top-225 team.
It was a smart move by Marquette's athletic department to NOT make a money grab by adding another crapcake, especially when you consider that so many of our opponents (Howard, Pitt, Michigan, IUPUI, SIUE, Western Carolina) have crapped the bed in conference play.
Believe it or not, St. Francis is proving to be one of our better non-con opponents from the RPI perspective, at least recently. 8-4 in conference and a legit contender in the NEC.
Actually u assuming i didnt know this is dumb. There is a reason teams schedule the full amount of games and yes it would have needed to not been against a bottom feeder. So my comment stands. Go attack someone else, with your twisting of facts. You sound like an obtuse old fool in black socks and sandles yelling from your lawn chair.
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I believe it was supposed to be a home and home with Utah but it fell through. Only option was to get a grambling level opponent. Hurts more than it helps
I was thinking this was the case, but was unsure if I was just creating memories.
After all, I have thought for decades that it was the Bernstein Bears, not Berenstain...not sure what is what anymore.
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Actually u assuming i didnt know this is dumb. There is a reason teams schedule the full amount of games and yes it would have needed to not been against a bottom feeder. So my comment stands. Go attack someone else, with your twisting of facts. You sound like an obtuse old fool in black socks and sandles yelling from your lawn chair.
They schedule the full amount games for $$$$$. Nothing else.
As mentioned previously, they attempted to schedule Utah but it fell through for this year. There were no other options after that besides Grambling level opponents. Instead of going for $$$$$, they went for the RPI boost. Which as fans we should all be grateful for.
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Bubble Games tonight:
Michigan State @ Michigan
Syracuse @ Clemson
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Bubble Games tonight:
Michigan State @ Michigan
Syracuse @ Clemson
MU v. BU ;)
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They schedule the full amount games for $$$$$. Nothing else.
As mentioned previously, they attempted to schedule Utah but it fell through for this year. There were no other options after that besides Grambling level opponents. Instead of going for $$$$$, they went for the RPI boost. Which as fans we should all be grateful for.
+100
Exactly right, and beat me to the same type of statement. Once Utah fell through, there simply was no replacing them with a comparable value opponent. The athletic department did what was in the best interests of trying to make the tournament, which was to not play a 31st game that would have hurt our resume.
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Bubble Games tonight:
Michigan State @ Michigan
Syracuse @ Clemson
Wake @ ND
Texas Tech @ TCU
URI @ Umass
Vandy @ Arkansas
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+100
Exactly right, and beat me to the same type of statement. Once Utah fell through, there simply was no replacing them with a comparable value opponent. The athletic department did what was in the best interests of trying to make the tournament, which was to not play a 31st game that would have hurt our resume.
Perhaps this is the case, but I recall reading a quote from Broeker before this season saying he didn't expect to fill out the schedule next season either. I think it was in an interview with Matty V.
In any event, while I agree that scheduling a SWAC team to fill out the schedule isn't ideal, there really is no reason to leave a game on the table if only simply for win total optics purposes. I don't agree with Sand Knit on much, but I do agree there.
That said, if a scenario where a legit home and home was being scheduled (like Utah) and fell through, and at that point nothing but garbage was left, MU made the right decision.
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Lunardi's new bracket has us as a 9 seed playing USC and Gonzaga the 1 seed. Keep in mind USC is KR old school. Also i think we could take the Zags
Wait, it's possible we would beat TWO number 1 in the same year. I have to seat down.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch
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Actually u assuming i didnt know this is dumb. There is a reason teams schedule the full amount of games and yes it would have needed to not been against a bottom feeder. So my comment stands. Go attack someone else, with your twisting of facts. You sound like an obtuse old fool in black socks and sandles yelling from your lawn chair.
Now just hold on there with your name-calling. Some of us wear black socks because thats' the only color our Support-Hose comes in. Now, if you will excuse me, I have to get inside before it starts raining. "Nurse, where's my walker?"
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Actually u assuming i didnt know this is dumb. There is a reason teams schedule the full amount of games and yes it would have needed to not been against a bottom feeder. So my comment stands. Go attack someone else, with your twisting of facts. You sound like an obtuse old fool in black socks and sandles yelling from your lawn chair.
You want me to twist facts? How about this fact: last year there were more at-large berths given out to teams with 19 wins (Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Oregon State) than teams with 20 wins (Texas, Tulsa). Having 19 wins won't keep us out any more than having 20 wins (like last year) will get us in. And here's your original quote:
I believe we only have 30 games this year, chose to schedule 1 less than allowed. Dumb, the potential fifference between 20 n 19 in tge commitees eyes is big imo
You say nothing about a quality opponent, only that there's a difference between 20 and 19 wins, which is an empirically false statement. I made the assumption you didn't know that because you made a stupid statement with no basis in reality. I don't twist facts, I offer them as evidence that you don't know what you are talking about. And you write incoherently.
That last part doesn't provide any real justification to your knowledge base, but it does serve to make it easier for people to disrespect you. When you not only make stupid statements, but do so in a stupid manner, you're basically doubling down on your own stupidity.
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you made a stupid statement with no basis in reality.
#AlternativeFacts. He's learned from the master.
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You want me to twist facts? How about this fact: last year there were more at-large berths given out to teams with 19 wins (Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Oregon State) than teams with 20 wins (Texas, Tulsa). Having 19 wins won't keep us out any more than having 20 wins (like last year) will get us in. And here's your original quote:
You say nothing about a quality opponent, only that there's a difference between 20 and 19 wins, which is an empirically false statement. I made the assumption you didn't know that because you made a stupid statement with no basis in reality. I don't twist facts, I offer them as evidence that you don't know what you are talking about. And you write incoherently.
That last part doesn't provide any real justification to your knowledge base, but it does serve to make it easier for people to disrespect you. When you not only make stupid statements, but do so in a stupid manner, you're basically doubling down on your own stupidity.
Your wrong , reread ur original response. Simply wrong
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We have no chance at a bid. Like Sand, the selection committee hates Luke.
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Your wrong , reread ur original response. Simply wrong
Mods, can anything be done about third graders in this forum?
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Mods, can anything be done about third graders in this forum?
Ya culd u guyz hav, a Grammer tst b4 reg?/
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Your wrong , reread ur original response. Simply wrong
Okay, I reread it. Nothing I see that was invalidated by my second post, and nothing you've said has strengthened your argument. Nor has your 3 year old grammar.
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They should be on other side of bubble tonight.
- Seton Hall free throw debacle game loss
- Up 18 at Butler loss
- 3-6 Providence at home loss
- Butler at home, without Martin playing loss
Those games so far were just killers, very frustrating losses and they may have to win 5 out of 6, which also would be a miracle.
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They should be on other side of bubble tonight.
- Seton Hall free throw debacle game loss
- Up 18 at Butler loss
- 3-6 Providence at home loss
- Butler at home, without Martin playing loss
Those games so far were just killers, very frustrating losses and they may have to win 5 out of 6, which also would be a miracle.
4 of 6
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4 of 6
To feel comfortable heading into BET, I agree.
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Where do do we scrap up 4 wins out of our last 6 BE games?
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Where do do we scrap up 4 wins out of our last 6 BE games?
Xavier, St John's, Creighton and either @Georgetown or @PC.
Won't be easy, but definitely doable.
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Xavier, St John's, Creighton and either @Georgetown or @PC.
Won't be easy, but definitely doable.
Yep. And if we can win the two road games we can drop one of the two vs. X and Creighton.
Win Saturday and I really like our chances. But that's a really big one.
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Must win saturday
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Xavier, St John's, Creighton and either @Georgetown or @PC.
Won't be easy, but definitely doable.
I hope you are right, but our roster does not match up well against most of those teams. We got lucky that Creighton still did not know how to play without their best player - they have tightened ship big time and will be very tough to beat now. Xavier is full of thought players that we have fits against. St. John's we could beat, but their athleticism gave us fits. Georgetown and Providence will be tough to get on the road.
Would love to go 4-2, but my guess is we go 1-5 or 2-4. Hope I am wrong.
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Worried
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Just in case anyone was wondering, I did a quick scan of the brackets on bracketmatrix.com that were updated with last nights action. Didn't find 1 where we were out of the field. We were in the last four in a couple, 9s or 10s in most.
Obviously we need to find a way to win some games moving forward, but it is that soft.
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Just in case anyone was wondering, I did a quick scan of the brackets on bracketmatrix.com that were updated with last nights action. Didn't find 1 where we were out of the field. We were in the last four in a couple, 9s or 10s in most.
Obviously we need to find a way to win some games moving forward, but it is that soft.
I feel like if we are a 11 or 12 seed around there we have a better chance of making a run. I just want to make it this year.
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We still control our own destiny. The problem is, we've controlled our own destiny for 2 weeks now and have gone 1-3 while playing against Providence, St. John's, DePaul, and Butler. Not good.
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We still control our own destiny. The problem is, we've controlled our own destiny for 2 weeks now and have gone 1-3 while playing against Providence, St. John's, DePaul, and Butler. Not good.
We need to beat STJ, Prov and GTown
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I have no doubt we'd be in if the season ended today. The angst I have is we aren't trending well to finish these 6 games with a good enough resume to be in. It's not just that we lost, but the energy and decisions seem to be a lot like our non conference losses. We seem to be going backwards after the Villanova win after many hoped we turned a corner.
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I have no doubt we'd be in if the season ended today. The angst I have is we aren't trending well to finish these 6 games with a good enough resume to be in. It's not just that we lost, but the energy and decisions seem to be a lot like our non conference losses. We seem to be going backwards after the Villanova win after many hoped we turned a corner.
I can't argue with this. But I will ask these questions:
1. How were we "trending" before we started the stretch of 5 games that went Seton Hall - DePaul - @ Butler - @ Creighton - Villanova?
2. Did our "trend" suggest that we would go 4-1 in those games?
3. How were we "trending" after we beat Nova, and what did that trend do for us in successive games?
Sports seasons ebb and flow. Change happens fairly quickly, and often mysteriously. We are 1-3 since Nova, but two of those losses were by a total of 4 points.
I remain cautiously optimistic. Win at GT, and the trend will start to be our friend again!
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I can't argue with this. But I will ask these questions:
1. How were we "trending" before we started the stretch of 5 games that went Seton Hall - DePaul - @ Butler - @ Creighton - Villanova?
2. Did our "trend" suggest that we would go 4-1 in those games?
3. How were we "trending" after we beat Nova, and what did that trend do for us in successive games?
Sports seasons ebb and flow. Change happens fairly quickly, and often mysteriously. We are 1-3 since Nova, but two of those losses were by a total of 4 points.
I remain cautiously optimistic. Win at GT, and the trend will start to be our friend again!
Good point. I would say our trend was we were playing well, but couldn't close out a game. We did that against Creighton and Nova. In our 3 losses since, we haven't really played well and have been playing from behind for the vast majority of the games.
I hope it changes soon, but it just doesn't seem like we are going backwards in our quality of play. A win at Georgetown would do wonders for the team's confidence I think.
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I don't want another season of us not making the tourney
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I don't want another season of us not making the tourney
Nobody freakin' does.
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Nobody freakin' does.
Will it come to an end this season? I sure think it will. Do the players think they can make it?
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Anybody see that VCU GW game? My lord. VCU gets so lucky for the 2nd game in a row. Got a dagger hit against them to go down 1 with .4 seconds left.
Get a charge called on a defensive player on the inbound. Same kid who hit the tech free throw for VCU against St Bonnie when their fans stormed he court w less than 1 second left. Crazy.
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We are going to need to win the Big East tournament to make the NCAA. The rest of our schedule is brutal.
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We are going to need to win the Big East tournament to make the NCAA. The rest of our schedule is brutal.
I wasn't feeling good about how we were going to finish out the season. I am now. Thank you. This was the confidence boost I needed.
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We are going to need to win the Big East tournament to make the NCAA. The rest of our schedule is brutal.
Marquette is 5th in the BE right now.
3 games against teams 7,8, & 9 in the BE = not brutal
3 games against teams 2 & 4 in the BE both without their starting PG = winnable.
I mean, sure MU could lose all 6. Fairly likely they go 3-3. But I wouldn't be surprised if they win more than 3. The BE overall is brutal, but for MU this is a favorable schedule.
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We are going to need to win the Big East tournament to make the NCAA. The rest of our schedule is brutal.
I read this as written in jest.
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Marquette is 5th in the BE right now.
3 games against teams 7,8, & 9 in the BE = not brutal
3 games against teams 2 & 4 in the BE both without their starting PG = winnable.
I mean, sure MU could lose all 6. Fairly likely they go 3-3. But I wouldn't be surprised if they win more than 3. The BE overall is brutal, but for MU this is a favorable schedule.
This is definitely the silver lining.
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They should be on other side of bubble tonight.
- Seton Hall free throw debacle game loss
- Up 18 at Butler loss
- 3-6 Providence at home loss
- Butler at home, without Martin playing loss
Those games so far were just killers, very frustrating losses and they may have to win 5 out of 6, which also would be a miracle.
Also beat SH and nova in toss up games. It would have been nice to win one of the four above to even things out.
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They should be on other side of bubble tonight.
- Seton Hall free throw debacle game loss
- Up 18 at Butler loss
- 3-6 Providence at home loss
- Butler at home, without Martin playing loss
Those games so far were just killers, very frustrating losses and they may have to win 5 out of 6, which also would be a miracle.
I feel like you have no idea how bad this bubble is
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I feel like you have no idea how bad this bubble is
I think LOTS of people don't know how bad the bubble is.
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I think LOTS of people don't know how bad the bubble is.
The Washington Post knows! #10 seed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/02/08/bracketology-its-once-again-great-to-be-a-florida-gator/?utm_term=.f0b3e9b97d23 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/02/08/bracketology-its-once-again-great-to-be-a-florida-gator/?utm_term=.f0b3e9b97d23)
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The Washington Post knows! #10 seed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/02/08/bracketology-its-once-again-great-to-be-a-florida-gator/?utm_term=.f0b3e9b97d23 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/02/08/bracketology-its-once-again-great-to-be-a-florida-gator/?utm_term=.f0b3e9b97d23)
We would dominate SMU
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We would dominate SMU
Hrmmm nope. This is not a team capable of domination.
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Hrmmm nope. This is not a team capable of domination.
We would beat smu my bad
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Hrmmm nope. This is not a team capable of domination.
No it is. We dominated Vandy at the beginning of the year. We dominated Depaul at home. Even though we only won by 8 I feel like we dominated Creighton until we took our feet off the gas at the end. This team has a very high ceiling.
That being said, I'd doubt we'd beat, much less dominate SMU. I think they are a bad matchup for us.
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No it is. We dominated Vandy at the beginning of the year. We dominated Depaul at home. Even though we only won by 8 I feel like we dominated Creighton until we took our feet off the gas at the end. This team has a very high ceiling.
That being said, I'd doubt we'd beat, much less dominate SMU. I think they are a bad matchup for us.
We can only dominate if we rain threes and the other side becomes despondent leading to (complete) abandonment of offensive game plan.
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No it is. We dominated Vandy at the beginning of the year. We dominated Depaul at home. Even though we only won by 8 I feel like we dominated Creighton until we took our feet off the gas at the end. This team has a very high ceiling.
That being said, I'd doubt we'd beat, much less dominate SMU. I think they are a bad matchup for us.
I guess I meant NCAA tournament domination. Can't qualify giving up 94 as domination, regardless of the amazing offense that day in Omaha.
And you're right. Terrible matchup vs. SMU.
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Wee may haveta win the NCAA Tourney just ta get inta the tournament, ai na?
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I guess I meant NCAA tournament domination. Can't qualify giving up 94 as domination, regardless of the amazing offense that day in Omaha.
And you're right. Terrible matchup vs. SMU.
We'll be good Froling will give us all their secrets
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Hoosiers miss a chance to beat Purdue. Every little bit helps.
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I think we all are just really desperate for for MU to make the tourney, i know i am. Will this be the season we make it?
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Guys...Bracket Matrix still has Clemson in. Clemson is 13-10 and 3-8 in ACC. Their best win is @South Carolina and nothing else comes close. They have a six game losing streak.
We're fine unless we totally screw everything up.
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Guys...Bracket Matrix still has Clemson in. Clemson is 13-10 and 3-8 in ACC. Their best win is @South Carolina and nothing else comes close. They have a six game losing streak.
We're fine unless we totally screw everything up.
Bleacher Report has us in as a 10 playing VT. Also Joe Lunardi should be coming out with a new updated bracket tomorrow
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Guys...Bracket Matrix still has Clemson in. Clemson is 13-10 and 3-8 in ACC. Their best win is @South Carolina and nothing else comes close. They have a six game losing streak.
We're fine unless we totally screw everything up.
Yeah... stuff like this makes me happy...
But Clemson will probably drop out and be replaced by Cuse this week sometime.
We need to stop fuggin puking all over ourselves.
I have faith. But I'm getting tense.
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Dayton @ Rhode Island tonight.
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We would dominate SMU
Smu is an awful match up for us.
Length, shoot the 3 excellent and they play great defense.
No thanks
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11 seed in Palm's (CBS) update today. Safe of the last 4 in, barely.
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11 seed (6th last team in) in Lunardi's update today. First round vs. 6 seed St. Mary's....in Milwaukee. Good job, Joe.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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11 seed in Palm's (CBS) update today. Safe of the last 4 in, barely.
Those creighton and nova wins are keeping us alive.
This bubble is insane!
I really think 9-9 without a BET winner gets us in the first four games atleast.
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Hey..IF MU is fortunate enough to get in..i'd gladly take a 10,11 or 12 seed over an 8 or 9.
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11 seed (6th last team in) in Lunardi's update today. First round vs. 6 seed St. Mary's....in Milwaukee. Good job, Joe.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Because we wouldn't be able to play in our home court in Michigan, right?
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11 seed (6th last team in) in Lunardi's update today. First round vs. 6 seed St. Mary's....in Milwaukee. Good job, Joe.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Crap just reposted this in another thread. Didn't see this. Sorry.
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Those creighton and nova wins are keeping us alive.
This bubble is insane!
I really think 9-9 without a BET winner gets us in the first four games atleast.
I think so too, assuming everyone on the bubble keeps losing. I really do think 9-9 gets us to Dayton. 10-8 were safe. 9-9 plus any wins in the BET and were safe.
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I just keeping looking at the last team in.
Tennessee is 14-10 with only one good win (Kentucky) and a loss to Chattanooga. Their SOS is pretty good though.
Arkansas is 17-7 with no real quality wins and losses to Minnesota, Vanderbilt, and OK State (their best win is @ Tennessee).
This is the bubble this year folks.
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Indiana in at 15-10, 5-7. Softest bubble ever?
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I just keeping looking at the last team in.
Tennessee is 14-10 with only one good win (Kentucky) and a loss to Chattanooga. Their SOS is pretty good though.
Arkansas is 17-7 with no real quality wins and losses to Minnesota, Vanderbilt, and OK State (their best win is @ Tennessee).
This is the bubble this year folks.
And an awful loss to maybe the worst major conference team outside of Oregon State in Mizzou. Arkansas also got their doors blown off by fellow bubble team OK State recently.
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And an awful loss to maybe the worst major conference team outside of Oregon State in Mizzou. Arkansas also got their doors blown off by fellow bubble team OK State recently.
OK State isn't great but they are on the come up
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11 seed (6th last team in) in Lunardi's update today. First round vs. 6 seed St. Mary's....in Milwaukee. Good job, Joe.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Per Lundari, if we beat St. Marys, we would play the winner of #3 Wisconsin v #14 Bucknell.
Second round game between Bucky and MU in Milwaukee. That would set an attendance record!
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Per Lundari, if we beat St. Marys, we would play the winner of #3 Wisconsin v #14 Bucknell.
Second round game between Bucky and MU in Milwaukee. That would set an attendance record!
Probably not.
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Per Lundari, if we beat St. Marys, we would play the winner of #3 Wisconsin v #14 Bucknell.
Second round game between Bucky and MU in Milwaukee. That would set an attendance record!
Except we can't play in Milwaukee because it is our home court.
"The better a team is, the more priority they have in remaining close to home, but no team can actually play on its home court if it is hosting tournament games (generally, games are hosted on neutral courts, so this is not usually a problem)"
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Except we can't play in Milwaukee because it is our home court.
"The better a team is, the more priority they have in remaining close to home, but no team can actually play on its home court if it is hosting tournament games (generally, games are hosted on neutral courts, so this is not usually a problem)"
So..i guess I never realized this but the way thats worded..MU COULD play at the BC in the tourney(in a given year) so long as they werent the host? Say..the Big East was the "host" in Milwaukee, would that then be allowable for MU to play there?
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Could UWM host the tournament at the BC and then either UW or MU could play there? Or is there a financial benefit for MU that they wouldnt want to give up hosting?
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Could UWM host the tournament at the BC and then either UW or MU could play there? Or is there a financial benefit for MU that they wouldnt want to give up hosting?
Marquette would have to play under some number of games at the BC to play there. I think it's somewhere around 12 or something, but not exactly sure what the number is.
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Is the United center or the new DePaul arena 100miles away? Because I know it has to be past 100mi of your home arena and that'd be interesting if we could finally play in Chicago (I know the Allstate and Northwestern are under 100)
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Marquette would have to play under some number of games at the BC to play there. I think it's somewhere around 12 or something, but not exactly sure what the number is.
I think it's 4. I thought I remember something about Villanova only playing 4 games at Wells Fargo due to that rule one year.
That seems low. Hypothetically, would not be able to play in a MSG regional based on our preaseason tourney, STJ game, and BET?
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Is the United center or the new DePaul arena 100miles away? Because I know it has to be past 100mi of your home arena and that'd be interesting if we could finally play in Chicago (I know the Allstate and Northwestern are under 100)
You can definitely play within 100 miles of your home arena. UNC and Duke are always playing in Greensboro (50ish miles from Durham), Nova has played in Philli, Madison has played at the BC (and will this year), etc.
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You can definitely play within 100 miles of your home arena. UNC and Duke are always playing in Greensboro (50ish miles from Durham), Nova has played in Philli, etc.
Not to mention UW at the BC.
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Not to mention UW at the BC.
You beat me to my edit.
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Louisville has been at Rupp Arena, and UK has been at the Yum Center.
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That seems low. Hypothetically, would not be able to play in a MSG regional based on our preaseason tourney, STJ game, and BET?
I think it does also have to be considered a home venue, which MSG would not be for us.
Also, that requirement is only for the first round. So as MSG is a regional site, we'd be able to play there (as would St John's).
I believe we could play at the BC if say UW-Milwaukee was hosting there, or if we hosted a regional in Milwaukee (maybe in the Silk Exotic Entertainment Center in 2019).
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Not to mention UW at the BC.
thought that was 100 miles.
Don't know where I got this rule from. Maybe been having a recurring dream :o
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Anybody see that VCU GW game? My lord. VCU gets so lucky for the 2nd game in a row. Got a dagger hit against them to go down 1 with .4 seconds left.
Get a charge called on a defensive player on the inbound. Same kid who hit the tech free throw for VCU against St Bonnie when their fans stormed he court w less than 1 second left. Crazy.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0M0mvROhD1A
For those of you that haven't seen it.
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Anyone see the play at the end of the IU/Purdue game. Bryant drove to the basket. Swanigan tried to stop him. One official called it a charge - another called it a block. So, what did they do? Gave each guy a foull.
Sorry, but it can't be a block AND a charge. Unless blarges are part of the rule book now.
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I think it's 4. I thought I remember something about Villanova only playing 4 games at Wells Fargo due to that rule one year.
That seems low. Hypothetically, would not be able to play in a MSG regional based on our preaseason tourney, STJ game, and BET?
Last year. Then they got sent somewhere else and won the whole damn thing anyway.
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Could UWM host the tournament at the BC and then either UW or MU could play there? Or is there a financial benefit for MU that they wouldnt want to give up hosting?
Would have to at UWM's arena for us to play I think does not meet ncaa tournament requirements?
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As bad as today was, literally every other bubble team that has played lost. So there's that.
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As bad as today was, literally every other bubble team that has played lost. So there's that.
And...I'm one of the least optimistic people there is..BUT, I will say this..it was obvious to me that with the NCAA unveiling the top 16 seeds today, that they are placing a HUGE weight in top 50 wins(hence why UW wasn't in top 16). MU has two of the best you can have(4 overall) right now, with a chance to get up to 3 more yet. And those top 4 50 RPI wins compare well against any other team sitting on the bubble, and quite frankly are more than a lot of teams safely in have right now.
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And...I'm one of the least optimistic people there is..BUT, I will say this..it was obvious to me that with the NCAA unveiling the top 16 seeds today, that they are placing a HUGE weight in top 50 wins(hence why UW wasn't in top 16). MU has two of the best you can have(4 overall) right now, with a chance to get up to 3 more yet. And those top 4 50 RPI wins compare well against any other team sitting on the bubble, and quite frankly are more than a lot of teams safely in have right now.
Yah, I'm as down as I've been on this team this year, but it's still there for the taking. No one else has really done anything to move on front of us. This week off will be a blessing. Let other bubble teams lose the next seven days and come up with a game plan to beat X at get back on track.
I still think 9-9 gets us to Dayton even without a BET win, depenskng on how the final standings shake out. But right now 3-2 seems like a stretch. Really need to win the next two or 2/3.
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We absolutely have the opportunity to get in. But the way we are playing there is no chance we do what we need to do to get into the Tournament. Is it possible to turn it around? Sure. But the way we've been playing it's hard to see it.
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We absolutely have the opportunity to get in. But the way we are playing there is no chance we do what we need to do to get into the Tournament. Is it possible to turn it around? Sure. But the way we've been playing it's hard to see it.
This is where I'm at. We haven't played our way out yet. Last games are all winnable. But the recent performances have changed my perspective on how good this team. This many performances near our floor has moved our average down. Gotta use this week off to get our heads straight.
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This is where I'm at. We haven't played our way out yet. Last games are all winnable. But the recent performances have changed my perspective on how good this team. This many performances near our floor has moved our average down. Gotta use this week off to get our heads straight.
Totally agree, the last games we have this season are winnable
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Palm and Lunardi haven't updated, but the updated ones I have seen today have us in the last four in/first four out range
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Palm and Lunardi haven't updated, but the updated ones I have seen today have us in the last four in/first four out range
i see us as a bubble team even if we win 3 of the last 5 games
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Bracketmatrix still has us as a 11 seed
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Bracketmatrix still has us as a 11 seed
Not only that, we're not even in Dayton for the first four. Soft bubble.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/228 (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/228)
#11 seed, play-in game. Annnndddd, re-start the (clunky/rusty) optimism motor for Saturday!
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I think Saturday is the biggest game of Wojo's tenure. 18k with a beatable top 25 opponent coming in and a week of prep.
Win, beat St J and Prov and we are on the right side of the bubble March 12. I don't like that we could potentially end on a 3 game losing streak, but the committee has done a good job of looking at seasons as a whole and not late stretches.
The players have to do it, but with 6 days of prep, coming off ugly losses, what happens under Wojo's watch this week will be telling. I know he will be giving it his all, but it won't matter if the message isn't getting through to the players.
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I think Saturday is the biggest game of Wojo's tenure. 18k with a beatable top 25 opponent coming in and a week of prep.
Win, beat St J and Prov and we are on the right side of the bubble March 12. I don't like that we could potentially end on a 3 game losing streak, but the committee has done a good job of looking at seasons as a whole and not late stretches.
The players have to do it, but with 6 days of prep, coming off ugly losses, what happens under Wojo's watch this week will be telling. I know he will be giving it his all, but it won't matter if the message isn't getting through to the players.
As a Wojo backer and as a Scooper who considers himself (mostly) even-toned and rational, I find this to be a very fair assessment, dw3.
Any game can be the difference between making or missing the NCAAs, but this one has the real "feel" of a difference-maker, especially if it can launch a mini-winning streak as you say.
Here's hoping Wojo coaches 'em up real good and that the lads do their jobs.
I think they will!
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I think Saturday is the biggest game of Wojo's tenure. 18k with a beatable top 25 opponent coming in and a week of prep.
Win, beat St J and Prov and we are on the right side of the bubble March 12. I don't like that we could potentially end on a 3 game losing streak, but the committee has done a good job of looking at seasons as a whole and not late stretches.
The players have to do it, but with 6 days of prep, coming off ugly losses, what happens under Wojo's watch this week will be telling. I know he will be giving it his all, but it won't matter if the message isn't getting through to the players.
Well said. He'll have the backing of a raucous Saturday night crowd at the BC. Should be a hell of an environment.
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I think Saturday is the biggest game of Wojo's tenure. 18k with a beatable top 25 opponent coming in and a week of prep.
Win, beat St J and Prov and we are on the right side of the bubble March 12. I don't like that we could potentially end on a 3 game losing streak, but the committee has done a good job of looking at seasons as a whole and not late stretches.
The players have to do it, but with 6 days of prep, coming off ugly losses, what happens under Wojo's watch this week will be telling. I know he will be giving it his all, but it won't matter if the message isn't getting through to the players.
Well said. He'll have the backing of a raucous Saturday night crowd at the BC. Should be a hell of an environment.
I don't see the evidence to suggest a sellout raucous crowd on Saturday night. The last "opportunity" for a crowd to influence the game was against Butler and it was an embarrassment. Even marquee Saturday games earlier in the season didn't have a sellout crowd with great atmosphere.
I'd put coin on a token enthusiasm early thanks to late start and full day of drinking but if it's a close game throughout then the crowd will more likely have a tension set in during the second half which would contribute negatively to an already tight group of players.
Only a first half performance like DePaul at home would alleviate any hint of the tension.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/228 (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/228)
#11 seed, play-in game. Annnndddd, re-start the (clunky/rusty) optimism motor for Saturday!
As I've been saying for weeks.....
Honestly though, between now and when we tip Saturday, tons of teams just in front of us and just behind will be losing, like they've done all season. MU just needs to take care of business on this homestand, and go in PC 8-7 and in decent shape again. Now whether or not they can do that remains to be seen.
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I don't see the evidence to suggest a sellout raucous crowd on Saturday night. The last "opportunity" for a crowd to influence the game was an embarrassment against Butler. Even marquee Saturday games earlier in the season didn't have a sellout crowd with great atmosphere.
Sat. night is a sellout. Go ahead and look for tickets on ticketmaster, there's only a few scattered singles left, and prices on stubhub are ridiculous. If the team doesn't fall apart it's going to be a great atmosphere.
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As someone who will be going to the MKE games, they wouldn't give UW a 5 seed in Milwaukee right? Especially to play 4 seed Duke.
Our top 50 wins are keeping us in, but we have to stop the bleeding this weekend. A good stretch run at the end and we could put ourselves safely in. However, that means a big turnaround in our quality of play.
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Sat. night is a sellout. Go ahead and look for tickets on ticketmaster, there's only a few scattered singles left, and prices on stubhub are ridiculous. If the team doesn't fall apart it's going to be a great atmosphere.
Yep, many single tickets left for Xavier on Saturday. 1200 seats left for Senior Day vs Creighton.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/228 (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/228)
#11 seed, play-in game. Annnndddd, re-start the (clunky/rusty) optimism motor for Saturday!
Joey Brackets has Wisconsin as a 5 seed in Milwaukee vs the 4 seed Duke. :o :o
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Sat. night is a sellout. Go ahead and look for tickets on ticketmaster, there's only a few scattered singles left, and prices on stubhub are ridiculous. If the team doesn't fall apart it's going to be a great atmosphere.
We've had this discussion on Scoop endlessly regarding crowds. Firstly, if there are tickets available it is not a sellout. Secondly, I'm not talking a ticket sellout. I'm talking the kind of sellout where there is a person in each and every seat when the ball is tipped.
Marquette does very well with tickets sold. Not so well with people actually attending relative to the tickets sold.
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We've had this discussion on Scoop endlessly regarding crowds. Firstly, if there are tickets available it is not a sellout. Secondly, I'm not talking a ticket sellout. I'm talking the kind of sellout where there is a person in each and every seat when the ball is tipped.
Marquette does very well with tickets sold. Not so well with people actually attending relative to the tickets sold.
Dude, you're wrong here. Its National MU day. The place will be rocking.
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We've had this discussion on Scoop endlessly regarding crowds. Firstly, if there are tickets available it is not a sellout. Secondly, I'm not talking a ticket sellout. I'm talking the kind of sellout where there is a person in each and every seat when the ball is tipped.
Marquette does very well with tickets sold. Not so well with people actually attending relative to the tickets sold.
I hate to break it to you put everything college and pro in attendance goes by tickets sold. By your standard nothing would be soldout. That includes the Packers and the Super Bowl.
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We've had this discussion on Scoop endlessly regarding crowds. Firstly, if there are tickets available it is not a sellout. Secondly, I'm not talking a ticket sellout. I'm talking the kind of sellout where there is a person in each and every seat when the ball is tipped.
Marquette does very well with tickets sold. Not so well with people actually attending relative to the tickets sold.
The no-shows are usually season-ticket holders that skip the lower profile games. People that bought an individual ticket for just this game are more likely to show up. It's NMD, and a lot of people travel here for the game. Try looking for a hotel downtown that night. With a long afternoon for pre-game festivities the crowd will be ready, I'm just hoping the team gives us something to cheer for.
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As I've said over and over again, as long as our resume is demonstrably better than the last team IN, we're ok.
Right now that's Seton Hall: 15-9, 5-7 in conference, wins @ Iowa, vs. Cal, vs. South Carolina, losses @SJU, @PC, and vs. Stanford
Marquette: 15-10, 6-7 in conference, wins @Georgia, @Creighton, vs. Nova, losses @SJU, vs PC, Pitt (N)
We're ahead of them in top wins and have roughly the same in terms of bad losses. We split our matchups and are still ahead in the standings. The two resumes are pretty close right now. If we can stay above Seton Hall, we should be ok.
Oh, and Clemson is still "IN" at 3-9 in conference.
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Dude, you're wrong here. Its National MU day. The place will be rocking.
I sincerely hope. I've been to many of these days, notably the ones where MU didn't have a cloud hanging over it, and it isn't always a raucous crowd with a person in every single seat.
I hate to break it to you put everything college and pro in attendance goes by tickets sold. By your standard nothing would be soldout. That includes the Packers and the Super Bowl.
As I wrote, this discussion has gone on endlessly here. No need to be bogged down in it. But a tickets sold sellout where 15,928 people attend isn't the same crowd as having 18,717 actual people in the building.
The no-shows are usually season-ticket holders that skip the lower profile games. People that bought an individual ticket for just this game are more likely to show up. It's NMD, and a lot of people travel here for the game. Try looking for a hotel downtown that night. With a long afternoon for pre-game festivities the crowd will be ready, I'm just hoping the team gives us something to cheer for.
You mean lower profile games like Butler? Arena shots of that game showed plenty of open seats in the upper and lower sections. Only 12,500 listed for that game. Was it a tickets sold 12,500 or an actual attendance of 12,500? I know, I know, an 8 PM tip on a weeknight is just too tough for people to attend.......
Again, as I wrote earlier, I agree the crowd will have plenty of time to be "ready" for the game but that doesn't always translate. If MU doesn't hit nine 3FG in the first half and slogs through a tight one for 30 minutes, the crowd will grow more tense than raucous.
Oh, the bubble is the worst its been in history. (To keep things on topic)
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Yes there may be some rows in the upper corners not filled. X may keep the crowd out of the game. The refs may decide to takeover. The point is there won't be anyone who can say, MU didn't have a great home court advantage potential against X. Bringing it on the road just needs to be a part of your DNA as a team. Bringing it at home, fighting for every rebound, fighting through screens, diving for loose balls for 40 min will be easier with 18k engaged fans pushing you.
If the team doesn't bring it or at least show fight (win or lose), it will be a clear message that Wojo is being tuned out. If the shots don't go in, they don't go in. However, you can still compete at an elite level regardless. I haven't seen that a whole lot this year as a team.
Before the Butler game, Diener was giving a talk and said they believed they were the best offensive team in the country. Obviously that's not the case, but it almost seemed like they believed their formula with this team for a tourney berth was just to try and score 90 every game. I don't know how much defense and intangibles/fighting are stressed during practice hours, but I hope they get a healthy dose this week. I think the gains the team can make there are worth double the gains the team can get from trying to "fix" the offense. Just my opinion though, I just want them to compete more. Don't want them to lose, but it's more more bearable when you see them giving everything they have.
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As I wrote, this discussion has gone on endlessly here. No need to be bogged down in it. But a tickets sold sellout where 15,928 people attend isn't the same crowd as having 18,717 actual people in the building.
You just need help on your wording. You want people who have a ticket to show up at the game. The example you list, is still a sell-out. You just want limited no-shows.
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As I've said over and over again, as long as our resume is demonstrably better than the last team IN, we're ok.
Right now that's Seton Hall: 15-9, 5-7 in conference, wins @ Iowa, vs. Cal, vs. South Carolina, losses @SJU, @PC, and vs. Stanford
Marquette: 15-10, 6-7 in conference, wins @Georgia, @Creighton, vs. Nova, losses @SJU, vs PC, Pitt (N)
We're ahead of them in top wins and have roughly the same in terms of bad losses. We split our matchups and are still ahead in the standings. The two resumes are pretty close right now. If we can stay above Seton Hall, we should be ok.
Oh, and Clemson is still "IN" at 3-9 in conference.
Snapshot of a few other teams on the bubble, but in the tournament, per Lunardi's latest. Rankings are RPI* / Kenpom. Top 50 wins and worst losses per RPI*. *RPI per ESPN RPI - I know this isn't the best, but for ease of info, I am using it.
Marquette (11 seed - last 4 in):
15-10
RPI: 82
Kenpom: 42
Conference Record: 6-7
2-4 vs. RPI top 25
3-5 vs. RPI top 50
6-9 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: vs. Nova (2/3), @ Creighton (17/21), vs. Seton Hall (45/55), vs. Georgia (51*/50)
Worst Losses: @ SJU (114/83), vs. Providence (71/60)
Arkansas (11 seed - last 4 in):
18-7
RPI: 42
Kenpom: 57
Conference Record: 7-5
0-3 vs. RPI top 25
2-5 vs. RPI top 50
7-5 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: UT Arlington (48/70), @ Tennessee (44/41)
Worst Loss: vs. Mississippi State (113/95), @ Mizzou (240/165)
Clemson (11 seed - last 4 in):
13-11
RPI: 56
Kenpom: 39
Conference Record: 3-9
1-7 vs. top 25
3-8 vs. top 50
8-10 vs. top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ So. Carolina (20/27), @ Wake (31/32) vs. UNC Wilmington (47/56)
Worst Losses: vs. Oklahoma (161/82), vs. Cuse (70/48), @ Georgia Tech (76/79)
Seton Hall (11 seed - last 4 in):
15-9
RPI: 45
Kenpom: 55
Conference Record: 5-7
1-5 vs. top 25
2-5 vs. top 50
5-8 vs. top 100
Top 50 Wins: vs. So. Carolina (20/27) vs. Cal (33/46)
Worst Losses: @ SJU (114/83), @ Marquette (82/42), vs. Stanford (75/104)
Syracuse (11 seed - last 4 byes):
18-7
RPI: 70
Kenpom: 48
Conference Record: 8-5
2-4 vs. RPI top 25
5-5 vs. RPI top 50
8-7 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: v. UVA (13/2), vs. Fl State (10/13), vs Wake (31/32), vs. Miami (49/34), vs. Monmouth (50/100)
Worst Loss: @ BC (197/149), vs, SJU (114/83), vs. UCONN (121/86)
Michigan (11 seed - last 4 byes):
RPI: 61
Kenpom: 31
Conference Record: 6-6
1-3 vs. RPI top 25
2-6 vs. RPI top 50
9-8 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: vs. SMU (19/12), vs, Michigan State (41/54)
Worst Losses: @ Iowa (105/71), @ Illinois (66/75), vs. Ohio State (59/61)
Michigan State (10 seed - last 4 byes):
RPI: 41
Kenpom: 54
Conference Record: 7-5
2-5 vs. RPI Top 25
3-5 vs. RPI top 50
7-9 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ Minnesota (21/37), vs. Minnesota (21/37), v. Northwestern (34/30)
Worst Losses: vs. Northeastern (140/138), @ Indiana (87/49), vs, Penn State (65/80)
Cal (10 seed - last 4 byes):
RPI: 33
Kenpom: 46
Conference Record: 9-4
0-4 vs. RPI Top 25
1-6 vs. RPI top 50
4-7 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ USC (32/58)
Worst Losses: vs. San Diego State (92/78), vs. Seton Hall (45/55)
Kansas State (10 seed):
RPI: 43
Kenpom: 28
Conference Record: 5-7
1-4 vs. RPI Top 25
3-7 vs. RPI top 50
3-9 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ Baylor (1/7), @ Ok State (28/20), vs. West Virginia (29/4)
Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech (95/40), @ Iowa State (55/26), @ Tennessee (44/41)
TCU (10 seed):
RPI: 35
Kenpom: 38
Conference Record: 6-6
0-4 vs. RPI Top 25
2-6 vs. RPI top 50
5-8 vs. RPI top 100
Top 50 Wins: vs. Illinois State (26/45), vs. K State (43/28)
Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech (95/40), vs. Auburn (68/76)
Iowa State (7 (!) seed):
15-9
RPI: 55
Kenpom: 26
Conference Record: 7-5
1-4 vs. top 25
4-6 vs. top 50
5-7 vs. top 100
Top 50 Wins: @ Kansas (3/9), @ OK State (28/20), vs. K State (49/28)
Worst Losses: @Texas (137/68), @ Iowa (105/71), @ Vandy (62/59)
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Joe lunardi has us as a 11 seed in the play in game against clemson, if we win that we would play Maryland
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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Jerry Palm has Marquette out, and not even in the Last Four Out.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Palm has Providence and Seton Hall in over us.
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SI has us as an 11 seed vs. Maryland. 5th or 6th last team in
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NBC Sports has Marquette as one of the first 4 out
USA Today has Marquette out completely
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Let's worry about it after we get a few wins. If we continue to not win games, it doesn't matter where people have us today. Win 4 more games from now until Selection Sunday and we'll be in. Don't do that and we'll be out.
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As someone who will be going to the MKE games, they wouldn't give UW a 5 seed in Milwaukee right? Especially to play 4 seed Duke.
Our top 50 wins are keeping us in, but we have to stop the bleeding this weekend. A good stretch run at the end and we could put ourselves safely in. However, that means a big turnaround in our quality of play.
My expectation all along was Wisconsin getting the 4 and going to Milwaukee, but losing to Northwestern didn't help their cause. Still, their schedule doesn't get any tougher. If they beat Maryland and don't lose to anyone not named Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament, I think they get the 4 in Milwaukee. If they get the 5, they probably get shipped out.
Then again, we did play that virtual road game as a 3 against 6-seed Murray State in Kentucky, so who knows?
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My expectation all along was Wisconsin getting the 4 and going to Milwaukee, but losing to Northwestern didn't help their cause. Still, their schedule doesn't get any tougher. If they beat Maryland and don't lose to anyone not named Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament, I think they get the 4 in Milwaukee. If they get the 5, they probably get shipped out.
Then again, we did play that virtual road game as a 3 against 6-seed Murray State in Kentucky, so who knows?
Wisconsin was placed in Milwaukee as a 6 seed in 2004. Not being in the top 4 doesn't guarantee them being placed far away.
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Wisconsin was placed in Milwaukee as a 6 seed in 2004. Not being in the top 4 doesn't guarantee them being placed far away.
No, but in recent years the Selection Committee has talked more and more about trying to get the top-4 seeds close to home and (supposedly) not having a home-court disadvantage to lower seeded teams in the opening weekend. If Wisconsin gets a 5 or 6 and plays a higher seeded team in the Round of 32 in Milwaukee, it would be a veritable home game for Bucky. It would definitely be a discussion point the opening week of the tournament.
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No, but in recent years the Selection Committee has talked more and more about trying to get the top-4 seeds close to home and (supposedly) not having a home-court disadvantage to lower seeded teams in the opening weekend. If Wisconsin gets a 5 or 6 and plays a higher seeded team in the Round of 32 in Milwaukee, it would be a veritable home game for Bucky. It would definitely be a discussion point the opening week of the tournament.
I agree that they've been trying to cut down on that over the years, but it seems like a team or two seeded outside the top 4 seeds get a geographic advantage every year. Yale as a 12 seed playing in Providence against Duke last year in the second round is one that comes to mind. Cincinnati playing in Louisville as an 8 seed isn't fair either.
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Cincinnati playing in Louisville as an 8 seed isn't fair either.
Ehh, can't really be bothered by that. 2-hour drive from Cincy to Louisville, 3 hour drive from Purdue to Louisville. And the winner got to play undefeated Kentucky in their home state.
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Palm has Providence and Seton Hall in over us.
The Friars?? ::) ::)
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Ehh, can't really be bothered by that. 2-hour drive from Cincy to Louisville, 3 hour drive from Purdue to Louisville. And the winner got to play undefeated Kentucky in their home state.
I definitely agree with you on that with the way UK takes over arenas, but since they were the #1 overall seed that year I would have expected them to play someone from the 8/9 game from a plane flight away.
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Big win by fringe bubble team Texas Tech over Baylor. They were the 9th team out going into tonight.
Syracuse loses a close one in OT to Louisville.
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Hasn't Vandy and Georgia been playing good? If they are that would be good for MU
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Lunardi tweeted that he thinks we get in, 60/40. Not that it matters much today, but made me feel better for a few seconds.
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Big win by fringe bubble team Texas Tech over Baylor. They were the 9th team out going into tonight.
Syracuse loses a close one in OT to Louisville.
Yah that was a huge W. Glad to see Cuse lose.
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Lunardi tweeted that he thinks we get in, 60/40. Not that it matters much today, but made me feel better for a few seconds.
If we win on Saturday, this goes to 80/20.
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If we win on Saturday, this goes to 80/20.
Yep. Win our next 2 and we're in good shape again.
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Hasn't Vandy and Georgia been playing good? If they are that would be good for MU
They haven't
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They haven't
Vandy was in the top 50 RPI until they inexplicably lost to Missou Saturday. However, Georgia is currently knocking on the top 50 RPI door(at 53). Play Mississippi St Tomorrow night at Kentucky Saturday.
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Hasn't Vandy and Georgia been playing good? If they are that would be good for MU
They hasn't.
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Hasn't Vandy and Georgia been playing good? If they are that would be good for MU
If only Georgia could have held on @ Kentucky...
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If only Georgia could have held on @ Kentucky...
As nice as that might have been, I'd much rather we had held on against Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, and Butler. Be a lot less sweating the bubble around here at 19-6 (8-5).
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As nice as that might have been, I'd much rather we had held on against Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, and Butler. Be a lot less sweating the bubble around here at 19-6 (8-5).
Completely agree. Just hate to see Marquette lose out on an RPI top 50 win if Georgia finishes with an RPI at 55.
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As nice as that might have been, I'd much rather we had held on against Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, and Butler. Be a lot less sweating the bubble around here at 19-6 (8-5).
"Held on" implies we were leading at the end of the game. With 5 min to play in both games, I believe Wisconsin was steamrolling us and Butler had completely turned the tide. Legitimate grievances with regard to Pitt and SHU. Sweep of SHU would have been sweet.
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Too bad our win over Dayton in the secret scrimmage doesn't count
http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/sports/march-forecast-where-dayton-stands-ncaa-tournament-picture/WnkvQc25j2L9hPHPxa3QGP/
Ps the local newspapers in Dayton have their priorities in place
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Bracket matrix has us as first four out now
http://bracketmatrix.com/
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Decent read here if anyone is bored.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
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Decent read here if anyone is bored.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
Marquette [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 82, SOS: 76] After narrowly missing out on last week's massive opportunity -- a 68-65 home loss to Butler -- the Golden Eagles did themselves no favors in Saturday's 18-point loss at Georgetown. It's not an inherently bad loss on paper, but the 80 points in 68 possessions Marquette gave up to the Hoyas is a good example of why this team looks destined to spend the rest of the season hovering around the bubble: It doesn't guard anybody.
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Marquette [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 82, SOS: 76] After narrowly missing out on last week's massive opportunity -- a 68-65 home loss to Butler -- the Golden Eagles did themselves no favors in Saturday's 18-point loss at Georgetown. It's not an inherently bad loss on paper, but the 80 points in 68 possessions Marquette gave up to the Hoyas is a good example of why this team looks destined to spend the rest of the season hovering around the bubble: It doesn't guard anybody.
That's so unfair. I am 100% positive we have guarded somebody once this season!
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Pitt, Wake Forest, Auburn and Tennessee all lost.
Clemson got a win over Wake Forest.
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That's so unfair. I am 100% positive we have guarded somebody once this season!
Oh yeah! Prove it!!
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Pitt, Wake Forest, Auburn and Tennessee all lost.
Clemson got a win over Wake Forest.
Yep, fellow bubble teams continue to do their part to help us out! Better to have Clemson win that game than Wake.
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Yep, fellow bubble teams continue to do their part to help us out! Better to have Clemson win that game than Wake.
I'm not sure what to think about either of them. I think more brackets have Clemson in then Wake, but I'm still not sure why Clemson would be considered in with a 4-9 ACC record. Wakes loss tonight makes them 0-9 against the top 50 RPI..They shouldn't even be close to being in IMO. I mean if you want to compare apples to apples, MU's resume is better then either of those two by far, except the RPI.
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Full slate of bubble games tonight:
Arkansas (18-7; 7-5) @ South Carolina
Xavier @ Providence (15-11; 5-8)
Iowa State (15-9; 7-5) @ Kansas State (16-9; 5-7)
Wichita State (23-4; 13-1) @ S. Illinois
Fordham @ Rhode Island (16-9; 8-4)
Georgia Tech (15-10; 6-6) @ Miami (16-8; 6-6)
Creighton @ Seton Hall (15-9; 5-7)
Indiana (15-11; 5-8) @ Minnesota (18-7; 6-6)
OK State (16-9; 5-7) @ TCU (17-8; 6-6)
Alabama (14-10; 7-5) @ Missouri
Illinois State (21-5; 13-1) @ Missouri State
Nevada (19-6; 8-4) @ Air Force
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Full slate of bubble games tonight:
Arkansas (18-7; 7-5) @ South Carolina
Xavier @ Providence (15-11; 5-8)
Iowa State (15-9; 7-5) @ Kansas State (16-9; 5-7)
Wichita State (23-4; 13-1) @ S. Illinois
Fordham @ Rhode Island (16-9; 8-4)
Georgia Tech (15-10; 6-6) @ Miami (16-8; 6-6)
Creighton @ Seton Hall (15-9; 5-7)
Indiana (15-11; 5-8) @ Minnesota (18-7; 6-6)
OK State (16-9; 5-7) @ TCU (17-8; 6-6)
Alabama (14-10; 7-5) @ Missouri
Illinois State (21-5; 13-1) @ Missouri State
Nevada (19-6; 8-4) @ Air Force
Arkansas win.
Providence win.
Not a good start to the night.. Go Creighton
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Really bad loss for Rhode Island to a 10-15 Fordham team. They are probably out for good.
Kansas State also lost. That's a good result for us.
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Really bad loss for Rhode Island to a 10-15 Fordham team. They are probably out for good.
Kansas State also lost. That's a good result for us.
Providence winning really hurts...although they go to Creighton next, and lose that and they may be in some trouble and after that, MU could stick the dagger in them once and for all.
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Providence winning really hurts...although they go to Creighton next, and lose that and they may be in some trouble and after that, MU could stick the dagger in them once and for all.
Game at the Dunk could be largest one left on schedule. May very well be difference between MU and PC ending up tied in the table. If the reverse happens, PC will have better numbers, a sweep, though not a great win like Nova.
If Hall gets it over Jays tonight, the pressure for a win Saturday ratchets up to 11.
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Game at the Dunk could be largest one left on schedule. May very well be difference between MU and PC ending up tied in the table. If the reverse happens, PC will have better numbers, a sweep, though not a great win like Nova.
If Hall gets it over Jays tonight, the pressure for a win Saturday ratchets up to 11.
and PC has the loss to DePaul, not to mention BC as well and SJU
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Game at the Dunk could be largest one left on schedule. May very well be difference between MU and PC ending up tied in the table. If the reverse happens, PC will have better numbers, a sweep, though not a great win like Nova.
If Hall gets it over Jays tonight, the pressure for a win Saturday ratchets up to 11.
Doesn't really change anything about Saturday, it's a must win either way. Huge win for PC, but let's not forget they've lost to DePaul, Boston College and St Johns. And no huge wins. We're still in better shape (RPI be damned), but they're moving in the right direction for sure.
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Rhode Island lost tonight at home against Fordham. Their at-large chances are pretty much shot.
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and PC has the loss to DePaul, not to mention BC as well and SJU
Being that single, solitary one in DePaul's column should be a two ton weight around their neck.
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Oh yeah! Prove it!!
We have guarded more people than any other team in history. These attempts to lessen the enthusiasm of our defense are shameful and wrong.
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SJU loss is good for us although not bubble related.
Other big east results didn't go our way, but bubble results went fine. Rhode Island and Georgia Tech were two big competitors and both lost
Illinois State won a close one.
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Indiana lost a heartbreaker at Minnesota. That's a big one. IU is in deep trouble.
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Being that single, solitary one in DePaul's column should be a two ton weight around their neck.
and now PC over X. Hurts us.
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and now PC over X. Hurts us.
In short term, yes. But long term, could be great.
PC, an average squad but still considered on the bubble for some, has beaten two surefire NCAA teams in the Dunk. I think Xavier is going to finish 10-8 at best. If they "stumble" to that record and PC "surges" at the end to finish 9-9, then an MU win in the Dunk could very well be perceived in a better light than one win against X (a sweep against X, even without 45% of their scoring, would be held in higher esteem).
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Plus PC could move into top 50 RPI by seasons end. Should MU win there, that would add another top 50 win. Same with Georgia..they are on the cusp(53) as well and perhaps even Vandy could get there yet.
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Plus PC could move into top 50 RPI by seasons end. Should MU win there, that would add another top 50 win. Same with Georgia..they are on the cusp(53) as well and perhaps even Vandy could get there yet.
Good point. That would be 3 top 50 road wins if we could pull it off. I don't know if many bubble teams have 3 top 50 wins, much less on the road.
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Good point. That would be 3 top 50 road wins if we could pull it off. I don't know if many bubble teams have 3 top 50 wins, much less on the road.
If those things happen..plus beat X and Creighton at home plus a possible X road Victory..could have MU with 7-9 top 50 RPI wins by Conf tourney. A huge task yes..but doable.
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Last team in Lunardi's bracket today.
It's been a very frustrating couple of weeks, but win at home Saturday and we are in pretty good shape.
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Last team in Lunardi's bracket today.
It's been a very frustrating couple of weeks, but win at home Saturday and we are in pretty good shape.
Color me shocked he has Illinois State in. Pretty much said on Twitter the other day that they have very little chance of making it as an at large. Too bad they didn't drop that game to Missouri State last night. Watched the last couple minutes, and not gonna lie, they looked pretty terrible.
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Color me shocked he has Illinois State in. Pretty much said on Twitter the other day that they have very little chance of making it as an at large. Too bad they didn't drop that game to Missouri State last night. Watched the last couple minutes, and not gonna lie, they looked pretty terrible.
I think his Illinois state opinion is mostly because they have no way to improve their resume. They may be in now, but their computer numbers will plummet with any loss.
Marquette and Illinois state are the last two teams in...but Marquette has 5 games left. 4 opportunities for a good win and only one opportunity at a bad loss.
Illinois State has no opportunities for a good win unless they meet WSU in the MVC tourney. No chance to improve their profile from here, really.
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I think his Illinois state opinion is mostly because they have no way to improve their resume. They may be in now, but their computer numbers will plummet with any loss.
Marquette and Illinois state are the last two teams in...but Marquette has 5 games left. 4 opportunities for a good win and only one opportunity at a bad loss.
Illinois State has no opportunities for a good win unless they meet WSU in the MVC tourney. No chance to improve their profile from here, really.
True. And frankly, there just aren't very many mid majors that have the resume to steal a bid. Quickly going though the non P6 conferences, you have:
AAC
Locks: SMU, Cinci
Back-end Bubble: Houston
A10:
Bubble: VCU, Dayton (both are probably safe, barring collapses down the stretch)
CUSA:
Backend Bubble: Middle Tennessee
MVC:
Bubble: Wichita State (should be safe), Illinois State
MWC:
Back-end Bubble: Nevada
WCC:
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Marys
MAC:
Back-end Bubble: Akron
Sunbelt:
Back-end Bubble: UT Arlington
That is literally it. And Arlington, Akron, Nevada, Middle Tennessee and Houston are real reaches. They likely have to win their conference tourneys to get in, but we should be rooting for them to (sans Houston), just in case. There just aren't going to be very many bid stealers this year, hence you'll probably see a record number of sub .500 P6 conference teams make the dance.
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Last team in Lunardi's bracket today.
It's been a very frustrating couple of weeks, but win at home Saturday and we are in pretty good shape.
Not terrible considering we're on the fourth of a six day stretch where literally every other bubble team can improve their standing at the expense of MU having a bye week.
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True. And frankly, there just aren't very many mid majors that have the resume to steal a bid. Quickly going though the non P6 conferences, you have:
AAC
Locks: SMU, Cinci
Back-end Bubble: Houston
A10:
Bubble: VCU, Dayton (both are probably safe, barring collapses down the stretch)
CUSA:
Backend Bubble: Middle Tennessee
MVC:
Bubble: Wichita State (should be safe), Illinois State
MWC:
Back-end Bubble: Nevada
WCC:
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Marys
MAC:
Back-end Bubble: Akron
Sunbelt:
Back-end Bubble: UT Arlington
At the risk of sounding stupid ... what's a back-end bubble?
Doesn't have anything to do with J-Lo, does it?
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At the risk of sounding stupid ... what's a back-end bubble?
Doesn't have anything to do with J-Lo, does it?
Lol, was just referring to a team that is a borderline bubble team, ie: a long shot without winning their conference tourney.
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Bubble games tonight (2/16)
Wisconsin @ Michigan
Utah @ Oregon
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt
The last two are more fringe bubble games. Need to win to even get near the bubble. But still, figured I'd throw them on here.
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Bubble games tonight (2/16)
Wisconsin @ Michigan
Utah @ Oregon
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt
The last two are more fringe bubble games. Need to win to even get near the bubble. But still, figured I'd throw them on here.
Putting aside the badgers being the badgers, do you think we prefer UW or Michigan to win? I'd go UW.
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Putting aside the badgers being the badgers, do you think we prefer UW or Michigan to win? I'd go UW.
UW for sure.
But i still don't know how I feel about cheering for them. And Koenig is out tonight.
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If we get in we get blown away anyway, what's the point? Better not get humiliated, and build a competitive team, "at the highest level".
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If we get in we get blown away anyway, what's the point? Better not get humiliated, and build a competitive team, "at the highest level".
keep your nonsense in your thread.
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Bubble games tonight (2/16)
Wisconsin @ Michigan
Utah @ Oregon
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt
The last two are more fringe bubble games. Need to win to even get near the bubble. But still, figured I'd throw them on here.
I think we want Vandy to win. Are they close to the Top 50 category?
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I think we want Vandy to win. Are they close to the Top 50 category?
I think we do too, and they are currently 62
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If we get in we get blown away anyway, what's the point? Better not get humiliated, and build a competitive team, "at the highest level".
(https://media1.popsugar-assets.com/files/thumbor/Ktrb2ARIfhPZyNlLbROy920j_Hs/fit-in/1024x1024/filters:format_auto-!!-:strip_icc-!!-/2014/11/06/316/n/1922283/3229c6a5a6ae8cfa_giphy-10/i/When-Buzz-Woody-just-fundamentally-do-understand-each-other.gif)
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I think we want Vandy to win. Are they close to the Top 50 category?
This. Vandy isn't going dancing, so we need them to win as much as possible the rest of the way to move into the top 50 RPI category and give MU another top 50 win. Same with Georgia, they are 53...so they are right on the cusp.
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This. Vandy isn't going dancing, so we need them to win as much as possible the rest of the way to move into the top 50 RPI category and give MU another top 50 win. Same with Georgia, they are 53...so they are right on the cusp.
That may be all well and good but we really need to stop with the hook shots, shoot more 3's, play more zone and not try and run with the big dogs.
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Don't like the guy at all but you can tell how important Koenig is to Wisconsin. They look listless offensively without him
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Don't like the guy at all but you can tell how important Koenig is to Wisconsin. They look listless offensively without him
Honestly, they just aren't that good. Their record was built by playing NOBODY in the BIG and now that teams have figured out the key is to double Happ..they are in trouble.
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Their only consistent outside threat is Koenig, and with him injured, they can double Happ with no fear.
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Their only consistent outside threat is Koenig, and with him injured, they can double Happ with no fear.
Koenig played against Northwestern and they doubled happy beautifully. Koenig hasn't been shooting well anyway, and now that Vitto brown is back to being well..Vitto Brown..there just isn't much offensive firepower.
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Koenig played against Northwestern and they doubled happy beautifully. Koenig hasn't been shooting well anyway, and now that Vitto brown is back to being well..Vitto Brown..there just isn't much offensive firepower.
Vitto shot well at the beginning of the year but completely fell off
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keep your nonsense in your thread.
What, a rule of the MUScoop cult? I have you on ignore, please, put me on your ignore list, that way our paths or generstions won't have to pass. And stay off my grass and thread.
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Utah got smoked. Probably ends their chances.
Vandy won. Rpi up to 57.
Michigan won. They are in pretty good shape now.
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What, a rule of the MUScoop cult? I have you on ignore, please, put me on your ignore list, that way our paths or generstions won't have to pass. And stay off my grass and thread.
lol, yet you responded to my post? Hah. When you make a comment like this:
If we get in we get blown away anyway, what's the point? Better not get humiliated, and build a competitive team, "at the highest level".
And start threads about MU leaving the BE, it is going to elicit responses, for obvious reasons. Making the tournament is always better than not. Every single time.
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Joe Lunardi has us in the last 4 still (not surprising) but we would play syracuse in the play in game, this would be a bad matchup
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One bubble game tonight
Cal @ Stanford
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Saturday 2/18 Bubble Games:
Xavier @ Marquette
Clemson @ Miami
Kansas State @ Texas
Northern Iowa @ Wichita State
TCU @ Iowa State
Ole Miss @ Arkansas
Villanova @ Seton Hall
Utah State Legends @ Nevada
Wake Forest @ Duke
Missouri @ Tennessee
Rhode Island @ George Mason
SMU @ Houston
To roughly determine the bubble, I just used Bracket Matrix 10 seeds through the first 10 or so teams out.
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One bubble game tonight
Cal @ Stanford
Cal loses to Stanford.
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I'll keep this thread going all by myself if I have to!
Clemson loses a very important game against Miami.
Wichita State wins.
Seton Hall is getting run out of the gym at home vs. Nova
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I'll keep this thread going all by myself if I have to!
Clemson loses a very important game against Miami.
Wichita State wins.
Seton Hall is getting run out of the gym at home vs. Nova
I appreciate it! I'd help ya out if I wasn't on my phone!
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I'll keep this thread going all by myself if I have to!
Clemson loses a very important game against Miami.
Wichita State wins.
Seton Hall is getting run out of the gym at home vs. Nova
You're the update hero I need today. It's gorgeous outside so not keeping an eye on the scores much.
But damn those ticket prices are not budging at all on stubhub for me. :(
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I'll be slowing down later in the day when we get closer to game time. Heading downtown around 5.
But I've got you covered until then. 8-)
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Joe Lunardi has us in the last 4 still (not surprising) but we would play syracuse in the play in game, this would be a bad matchup
It's fun to speculate on this stuff, but don't get too wound up on possible matchups in all of these bracket looks. A bazillion things can and will change between now and Selection Sunday.
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Tennessee wins a must win over Missouri.
Wake falls short of a big win @ Duke
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Thanks for these updates. I check this thread each time I log on.
(https://media.tenor.co/images/6c4dda2b9d2e273d168af9ba0a6a3170/raw)
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You're the update hero I need today. It's gorgeous outside so not keeping an eye on the scores much.
But damn those ticket prices are not budging at all on stubhub for me. :(
Go to MU Ticket transfer site. I just posted two in the lower bowl. $50/each.
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Go to MU Ticket transfer site. I just posted two in the lower bowl. $50/each.
Only need one. I'll check it out
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Kstate wins at the buzzer
WVU is a joke. Choking again against bubble team Texas Tech
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TT is gonna lose in 2 OT
WVU is blahh
I will not be picking them far in march once again
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So far the results have gone really well for us today. Everyone who had a chance at a big win failed. KSU, WSU, and Tennessee won, but Tennessee and WSU won "can't lose" games. KSU losing at Texas would have been nice, but a loss would have hurt them far more than the win helps them
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VPI has an eFG% of 77%, makes as many FTs as Louisville attempts and still loses.
Good for MU, but how often does that happen.
For Jaybee...one of the outliers, Louisville had a eFG% of 60%, but dominated the offensive boards and forced 6 more TOs than they committed.
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KSU losing at Texas would have been nice
Shaka screws us ... again!
10-17 for The Can't Miss Kid.
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VPI has an eFG% of 77%, makes as many FTs as Louisville attempts and still loses.
Good for MU, but how often does that happen.
For Jaybee...one of the outliers, Louisville had a eFG% of 60%, but dominated the offensive boards and forced 6 more TOs than they committed.
Not sure it really helps MU. VPI is in all likelihood going to make it....they aren't really a bubble team at this point.
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Pitt beating Florida state by 11 with 9 min left.
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Pitt beating Florida state by 11 with 9 min left.
Aaaand 2 min later Florida state is only down 3
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I don't really think PITT has any chance of going dancing, regardless.
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Not sure it really helps MU. VPI is in all likelihood going to make it....they aren't really a bubble team at this point.
Not really sure why you say this, unless you also believe in all likelihood MU is going to make it. VPI only has 2 top 50 wins (we have 4). They have fewer losses, but that is because they really didn't play anyone in their OOC schedule. They have 2 losses in the RPI 100+, we only have 1.
Their advantage is they will be favored to win every game left on their schedule as it is fairly easy. Their disadvantage is if they lose more than 1 of those games they will suffer.
Our advantage is that we still play 3 top 50 teams, which means we might be able to pad our resume. Our disadvantage is our remaining schedule is very challenging and we are more likely than not going to lose some more games.
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If we get in we get blown away anyway, what's the point? Better not get humiliated, and build a competitive team, "at the highest level".
I understand that the sun is strong in Italy this time of year. You might want to try a hat.
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TCU lost. I think Rhode Island won
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TCU lost. I think Rhode Island won
URI won by 3.
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Houston lost to SMU
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Georgia with yet another close but no cigar effort
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Georgia with yet another close but no cigar effort
...and Maten might be dunzo.
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But...Vandy beat South Carolina, so back in the top 50 RPI, add another top 50 RPI win to MU's total.
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top 50 wins include (and those that are close to top 50)
Nova
X
Creighton
Shall
UGA
Vandy and
Georgetown?
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We're doing fine. Beat Johnnies and we're very close to punching our dance ticket.
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We're doing fine. Beat Johnnies and we're very close to punching our dance ticket.
Gonna need more than that.
Still need 3 more wins to feel real safe
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Gonna need more than that.
Still need 3 more wins to feel real safe
Again, beat Johnnies and we're close. That's all I said. Yes, it would be ideal to win 2 others besides that, and certainly 1 other.
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Again, beat Johnnies and we're close. That's all I said. Yes, it would be ideal to win 2 others besides that, and certainly 1 other.
Don't really call that close.
We're gonna need to snag at least 2 of our remaining tough games(assuming we get 10 wins before BE).
St. John's is just another step.
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Again, beat Johnnies and we're close. That's all I said. Yes, it would be ideal to win 2 others besides that, and certainly 1 other.
Agreed.
But you weren't word for word what pfheros said. So ya know... he like disagree's n stuff cause you're not being as negative as he is.
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Agreed.
But you weren't word for word what pfheros said. So ya know... he like disagree's n stuff cause you're not being as negative as he is.
Exactly. Shyte. Can't we get past Johnnies first without worrying about how horrible we have it?
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Agreed.
But you weren't word for word what pfheros said. So ya know... he like disagree's n stuff cause you're not being as negative as he is.
Disagree and stuff?
By pointing out that we need at least two more wins beyond SJu and their 100+ rpi?
It's a fact.
You going to survive?
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Disagree and stuff?
By pointing out that we need at least two more wins beyond SJu and their 100+ rpi?
It's a fact.
You going to survive?
Yawn. Troll.
I get what you're saying. But your Perma-Negative attitude makes it clear what your outlook is.
I'm not calling you out. But if you vote for team A 7 times outta 10, then you are what you are.
And since you're negative that often, then... well... you're negative.
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SJU + 1 gets us in. This bubble is woeful.
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Yawn. Troll.
I get what you're saying. But your Perma-Negative attitude makes it clear what your outlook is.
I'm not calling you out. But if you vote for team A 7 times outta 10, then you are what you are.
And since you're negative that often, then... well... you're negative.
I'm a troll because I'm pointing out the wins that we need?
Again, you going to survive?
I didn't say we're going to lose them. You too stupid to get that?
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SJU + 1 gets us in. This bubble is woeful.
You actually think so?
I think it's possible(play in I'd guess).
But that's still 2-3 from here on out. 18-13 is real dicey.
I'd be more confident if it was X and Creighton as the two wins
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2 gets us to the table. 3 allows us to sit comfortably at said table.
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I'd be more confident if it was X and Creighton as the two wins
Yes, but, we also can't afford to lose to SJU at home. So best case we need SJU + 1. I think we really need SJU + 2. Lose SJU, then we definitely need to win the last three, and perhaps show well in the BET.
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Yes, but, we also can't afford to lose to SJU at home. So best case we need SJU + 1. I think we really need SJU + 2. Lose SJU, then we definitely need to win the last three, and perhaps show well in the BET.
Yeah I'm still planning to need 3 more wins. Which I think makes us a lock as well.
If we get in with 9 and and a 1st round BET loss I'll be pleasantly surprised
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Ok state rallied vs the Sooners last night
Woulda been a bad loss
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Loyola may be about to do us a favor. Tied at Illinois St. with under 2 to go. ESPNU
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Loyola may be about to do us a favor. Tied at Illinois St. with under 2 to go. ESPNU
Spoke too soon
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Spoke too soon
You have a crystal ball? Game just ended right now. Loyola 3 from 40 feet rims out at the buzzer. ISU wins by 2.
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You have a crystal ball? Game just ended right now. Loyola 3 from 40 feet rims out at the buzzer. ISU wins by 2.
No I was comfortable in speaking too soon myself.
Didn't think Loyola would go length of the court in under 4
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You have a crystal ball? Game just ended right now. Loyola 3 from 40 feet rims out at the buzzer. ISU wins by 2.
Illinois State sucks. If that team gets an at large (they won't), it's a travesty.
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Truth is nun y'all really know four fookin' sure watt da hell is kneeded by anyone, hey?
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Georgia Tech takes care of Syracuse.
Michigan and Minnesota in a tight one on BTN.
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Inching our way from the last four in...
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
G-tech in play-in.
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Didn't make the bracket of 68, on CBS
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Beat St. John's Tuesday. Worry about matchups and seeds later.
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Didn't make the bracket of 68, on CBS
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
Laughable given the weak bubble this year.
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Beat St. John's Tuesday. Worry about matchups and seeds later.
Good advice for the team; falls on deaf ears for Scoop.
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I'm surprised Lunardi has Michigan State above us. I didn't think their resume had them in at this point. I guess I haven't looked too closely but it looks like their best wins are at Minnesota and home against Northwestern.
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Laughable given the weak bubble this year.
Everyone says that every year.
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Didn't make the bracket of 68, on CBS
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
Yet Prov and ALABAMA in!?! Lol, ok.
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I'm surprised Lunardi has Michigan State above us. I didn't think their resume had them in at this point. I guess I haven't looked too closely but it looks like their best wins are at Minnesota and home against Northwestern.
Also one of their senior leaders went down with a season ending knee injury
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I'm surprised Lunardi has Michigan State above us. I didn't think their resume had them in at this point. I guess I haven't looked too closely but it looks like their best wins are at Minnesota and home against Northwestern.
Yah, I was a little surprised to see us in the last 4 grouping still. I think we're ahead of a few teams above that - MSU, Cal, K State, Cuse.
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Know it doesn't mean anything, but the thought of UW playing Cuse in Buffalo is hilarious to me. Oh would they be fuming about that.
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Yah, I was a little surprised to see us in the last 4 grouping still. I think we're ahead of a few teams above that - MSU, Cal, K State, Cuse.
Really not sure how we are behind Cuse, we are above them in every single metric used by the selection committee.
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Really not sure how we are behind Cuse, we are above them in every single metric used by the selection committee.
You're forgetting the inevitable Syracuse factor. Look at last year, their inclusion in the tournament was a joke. They had no business being there. Lost 5/6 going into the tournament, scuffed to a .500 league record, one-and-done in the ACC Tourney, and not only do they get in but they avoid the play-in games? Rubbish.
And no, a Final Four run does NOT justify their inclusion. Just like 2011 VCU didn't belong in the tournament. You don't make your case for the tournament after it begins, you make it in the 4 months prior.
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You're forgetting the inevitable Syracuse factor. Look at last year, their inclusion in the tournament was a joke. They had no business being there. Lost 5/6 going into the tournament, scuffed to a .500 league record, one-and-done in the ACC Tourney, and not only do they get in but they avoid the play-in games? Rubbish.
And no, a Final Four run does NOT justify their inclusion. Just like 2011 VCU didn't belong in the tournament. You don't make your case for the tournament after it begins, you make it in the 4 months prior.
Careful. We could very well be .500 in our conference, be one and done in the BET, have a worse RPI than Cuse had last year, and be scoffing nearly as much (4-7 down the stretch) and still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament.
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Careful. We could very well be .500 in our conference, be one and done in the BET, have a worse RPI than Cuse had last year, and be scoffing nearly as much (4-7 down the stretch) and still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament.
I think mid majors were much better last year. When people say it's the weak bubble, it's because there are no alternatives to mediocre P-6 teams.
I'm shocked we aren't even on the first four out for Palm's bracket, but he skews heavy towards RPI.
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I think mid majors were much better last year. When people say it's the weak bubble, it's because there are no alternatives to mediocre P-6 teams.
I'm shocked we aren't even on the first four out for Palm's bracket, but he skews heavy towards RPI.
Keep winning and there will be no problem getting into the tourney. St. Johns is a must win. Besides Villy, there guards are really challenging, it should be an
interesting game. There not as good on the road.
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Careful. We could very well be .500 in our conference, be one and done in the BET, have a worse RPI than Cuse had last year, and be scoffing nearly as much (4-7 down the stretch) and still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament.
The entire basis for their inclusion was that they were better with Boeheim, then managed to lose 5 of their last 6, tanking that supposition. If there are worthier teams than us, that argument holds water. As the entire bubble keeps losing, I'd be surprised. There were worthier teams than Syracuse last year, especially from the mid-major ranks. This year I'm not sure that's the case.
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Yet Prov and ALABAMA in!?! Lol, ok.
Whoa. And we're not even in first four out. Lost a little respect for Palm. This is dreadful.
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Whoa. And we're not even in first four out. Lost a little respect for Palm. This is dreadful.
Ole miss ahead of us too
Lol
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Ole miss ahead of us too
Lol
Ole Miss's BEST win is Vandy followed by Tennessee. They're 7-7 in a watered down SEC with an RPI of 71 per CBS.
Marquette RPI per CBS? 72. Palm is a true believer. What a joke.
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USA Today has us as a #10 seed.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/20/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-north-carolina/98147994/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/20/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-north-carolina/98147994/)
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USA Today has us as a #10 seed.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/20/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-north-carolina/98147994/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/20/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-north-carolina/98147994/)
Playing Burton's Iowa State and a next round matchup with Louisville.
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Playing Burton's Iowa State and a next round matchup with Louisville.
Louisville would be a bloodbath, but by that point we will have already overachieved.
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USA Today has us as a #10 seed.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/20/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-north-carolina/98147994/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/20/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-north-carolina/98147994/)
The best news about that bracket is Indy. Chick already has our car warming up.
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Louisville would be a bloodbath, but by that point we will have already overachieved.
UL would probably beat us by 50 lol
But I'd be pleased to make it to round of 32 this year
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I'd gladly take an 11 or 12 and in play in game or not..get either a 5 or 6 seed in that game than a 4 or 13 or 3 or 14 as opposed to a 10 where you get a 2 seed in 2nd round most likely. MU can beat a 3,4 or 5 seed given who would be on those lines this year.
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UL would probably beat us by 50 lol
But I'd be pleased to make it to round of 32 this year
I agree Louisville would be a horrid matchup, but ya just never know.
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Bubble games tonight:
Miami @ Virginia
Iowa St @ Texas Tech.
Miami and Iowa State have played themselves in over the past week. Neither are locks, but probably safe barring a collapse.
Texas Tech is in the "next four out" territory
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Bubble games tonight:
Miami @ Virginia
Iowa St @ Texas Tech.
Miami and Iowa State have played themselves in over the past week. Neither are locks, but probably safe barring a collapse.
Texas Tech is in the "next four out" territory
Miami schedule is brutal down the stretch. And they haven't really beaten the good ACC teams.
If they lose out they could be in trouble
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Good advice for the team; falls on deaf ears for Scoop.
Good advice for the team; unnecessary advice for Scoop, whose very existence is based upon a bunch of interwebs dweebs (myself included) yakkin' about whatever enters our craniums. Wild speculation is almost mandatory, and what's being yakked about here isn't that wild.
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Any y'all 'member da daze wen makin' da Tourney wuz a given? Only suspense wuz seedin' and location, ai na?
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Any y'all 'member da daze wen makin' da Tourney wuz a given? Only suspense wuz seedin' and location, ai na?
You mean like 2 seasons? Because over half of Buzz's teams were around the bubble.
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You mean like 2 seasons? Because over half of Buzz's teams were around the bubble.
That's not true at all.
2008-09: Six seed
2009-10: Six seed
2010-11: 11 seed
2011-12: 3 seed
2012-13: 3 seed
2014-14: No post season
Of his six seasons, the only one where there was any doubt was 2010-11.
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True, but that 2009-2010 team was on the bubble for most of the year. I think that's when TBW started. I remember the 6 seed being a surprise.
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The best news about that bracket is Indy. Chick already has our car warming up.
Lunardi's Bracket has us in Indy too. If it works with my work schedule (Thursday is parent teacher conferences...) then I might be interested in going to Indy myself. What do day-of tickets usually end up costing?
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Lunardi's Bracket has us in Indy too. If it works with my work schedule (Thursday is parent teacher conferences...) then I might be interested in going to Indy myself. What do day-of tickets usually end up costing?
14 years ago (2003!) MU played a 1st round game in Indy (vs. Holy Cross, I think) on a Thursday or Friday afternoon and I drove down and bought two lower level tickets on the street about an hour before tipoff for $30 apiece. No idea how much the market has changed, but I'm sure the opponent is a big factor in the supply-and-demand equation.
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14 years ago (2003!) MU played a 1st round game in Indy (vs. Holy Cross, I think) on a Thursday or Friday afternoon and I drove down and bought two lower level tickets on the street about an hour before tipoff for $30 apiece. No idea how much the market has changed, but I'm sure the opponent is a big factor in the supply-and-demand equation.
Also depends who is in the other game in a particular 1st round session whether afternoon or evening.
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Hope for the second game of the session, buy the cheapest tickets you can find (on Stubhub or on the streets), head into the arena with a couple minutes left in the first game, and wait in the hallways for fans of teams from the first game to leave. Ask them for their ticket stubs and go sit in great seats for $20.
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True, but that 2009-2010 team was on the bubble for most of the year. I think that's when TBW started. I remember the 6 seed being a surprise.
This. I was including 09/10, 10/11 and 13/14.
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#10 seed on this site: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracket-predictions/
41% chance of making it in. A win over STJ would likely push it slightly over 50%
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Hope for the second game of the session, buy the cheapest tickets you can find (on Stubhub or on the streets), head into the arena with a couple minutes left in the first game, and wait in the hallways for fans of teams from the first game to leave. Ask them for their ticket stubs and go sit in great seats for $20.
You sir are brilliant. If I had a slow clap gif handy i'd give it to ya.
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This. I was including 09/10, 10/11 and 13/14.
Still not over half but even during those years we still expected to be in the tournament. Can you honestly say that at the beginning of the year you thought we were going to be out? I could see that or 09-10 but none of those other teams.
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You sir are brilliant. If I had a slow clap gif handy i'd give it to ya.
Thank you. Ain't my first rodeo. Now let's hope I need to use this method in a few weeks.
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Still not over half but even during those years we still expected to be in the tournament. Can you honestly say that at the beginning of the year you thought we were going to be out? I could see that or 09-10 but none of those other teams.
Not really no, but the point remains, Buzzs teams spent plenty of time around the bubble.
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So yo, back in da dey, wee one 81 straight at home, don't ya no, hey?
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch
I just can't agree with Palm's ranking of us here. Especially when you match us up side by side to those teams. I can't see Miami having a better resume than us. He cites 8-10 against the top 200, but doesn't mention that only 2 games are 101-200. Illinois State isn't even close to our resume.
I think the top 16 shown by the committee shows very different criteria than Palm.
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Palm has Alabama in and us out. We have the better RPI, SOS, kenpom rank, and Sagarin rank. Our three best wins (2 Nova, 18 XU, 22 Creighton) are better than their best (30 South Carolina). Their next two best wins (Vandy, Georgia) are teams we beat.
Yet they are in and we aren't even First Four Out. That's inexcusable.
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Bubble games tonight:
Miami @ Virginia
Iowa St @ Texas Tech.
Miami and Iowa State have played themselves in over the past week. Neither are locks, but probably safe barring a collapse.
Texas Tech is in the "next four out" territory
Yes the only way ISU is in trouble if they lose all games remaining
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I've always found Palm super lazy.
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Miami wins @ UVA in Ot. That should punch their ticket. UVA had taken a nose dive lately.
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This. I was including 09/10, 10/11 and 13/14.
Even if you were right about these 3 seasons (you're not), in what universe is 3 of 6 "more than half"?
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Even if you were right about these 3 seasons (you're not), in what universe is 3 of 6 "more than half"?
Dear lord. In Buzzs first year, we weren't really a bubble team but went into selection Sunday having lost 5 of 6. In 09-10, Marquette had 3 non con losses and started BE play 2-5, including a loss at DePaul. They may have ended up with a good seed, but it was due to a strong conclusion to the season. In 10-11, they were 20-14 on selection Sunday and were a bubble team all year long. In Buzz last year they were a bubble team most of the year until their slide at the end. 3/6 seasons Marquette was around the bubble for part or all of the season. Things were not always seashells and balloons. That's all I'm saying. Moving along now..
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Miami wins @ UVA in Ot. That should punch their ticket. UVA had taken a nose dive lately.
Not so fast. They have 2 tough games (Duke and Florida state) and a bubble matchup with VPI. If they lose all three, they finish 9-9 in conference, with a weak schedule and only 3 top 50 wins.
If that happens and we also go 9-9 in conference...I like our chances better than theirs.
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Iowa State and Texas Tech in a battle on ESPNU. Looks like it may go to OT. TT ball w 1 second left. ISU is likely in at this point, so we probably want them to win to knock TT off the bubble completely.
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Iowa State and Texas Tech in a battle on ESPNU. Looks like it may go to OT. TT ball w 1 second left. ISU is likely in at this point, so we probably want them to win to knock TT off the bubble completely.
Plus we want Deonte to do well.
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Plus we want Deonte to do well.
I always liked Deonte, but I don't give two craps what he does now. Plus, he already fouled out. With 2 points .
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I always liked Deonte, but I don't give two craps what he does now. Plus, he already fouled out. With 2 points .
Well at least Iowa State won in spite of an off night from Deonte.
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Well at least Iowa State won in spite of an off night from Deonte.
(http://media.giphy.com/media/3SBi8gMf8BqBG/giphy.gif)
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Not so fast. They have 2 tough games (Duke and Florida state) and a bubble matchup with VPI. If they lose all three, they finish 9-9 in conference, with a weak schedule and only 3 top 50 wins.
If that happens and we also go 9-9 in conference...I like our chances better than theirs.
Miamis RPI is 37....ours is 71. Ahead of us also,in Pomeroy and Sagarin. Better road neutral record ....no bad losses ...better record against the top 200 if we both end up at 9-9...we would be under 500 in those games.
VPI isn't a bubble matchup.....VPI is not on the bubble
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I always liked Deonte, but I don't give two craps what he does now. Plus, he already fouled out. With 2 points .
This.
He loooooong gowne, having the occasional nice offensive game and the consistently horrid defensive game for somebody else. If it were mathematically possible to care less than 0%, I would.
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Miamis RPI is 37....ours is 71. Ahead of us also,in Pomeroy and Sagarin. Better road neutral record ....no bad losses ...better record against the top 200 if we both end up at 9-9...we would be under 500 in those games.
VPI isn't a bubble matchup.....VPI is not on the bubble
If they lose all three they won't be ahead of us in all those categories. Their saving grace is their RPI. We would dominate them in top 50 wins.
As for VPI. They need to win at least 2 out of the last 4. Should be very doable for them, but if they don't they are likely out of the tournament.
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ESPN's Myron Medcalf seems to think we're on our way to an at-large bid. He picked one key story for each of the major conferences as we head into the end of the season, and his story for the Big East is that Marquette is moving toward an at-large bid. Obviously, the next 4 games are all crucial, but I think I'd agree that we're at least trending in the right direction after Saturday.
Also a good read for other conferences as well.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18727717/the-one-big-thing-know-every-major-conference-college-basketball (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18727717/the-one-big-thing-know-every-major-conference-college-basketball)
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Miami is in. The talking point is Virginia. Mediocre squad in the middle of the conference but will get the deference of reputation putting them far higher on the seed line then is justified.
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Miami is in. The talking point is Virginia. Mediocre squad in the middle of the conference but will get the deference of reputation putting them far higher on the seed line then is justified.
They swept Louisville. They deserve a bid for sure.
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Updated Bubble Watch from ESPN Eammon Brennan:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
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Updated Bubble Watch from ESPN Eammon Brennan:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
So funny how analysts/writers put on RPI goggles and slant their narratives toward that. Eamon refuses to give MU credit for anything. He starts with our loss to Butler a few weeks ago. Good grief.
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So funny how analysts/writers put on RPI goggles and slant their narratives toward that. Eamon refuses to give MU credit for anything. He starts with our loss to Butler a few weeks ago. Good grief.
I thought it was pretty fair.
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So funny how analysts/writers put on RPI goggles and slant their narratives toward that. Eamon refuses to give MU credit for anything. He starts with our loss to Butler a few weeks ago. Good grief.
RPI may be flawed, but so is our basketball team. I think his summary is a pretty fair assessment given our propensity for let downs.
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Updated Bubble Watch from ESPN Eammon Brennan:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
It's weird he constantly talks about our defense and how volatile we are but not at all about our prospects. I think our resume is better than most are giving it credit for. We have to take care of business, but I think we have a manageable path to the tournament.
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It's weird he constantly talks about our defense and how volatile we are but not at all about our prospects. I think our resume is better than most are giving it credit for. We have to take care of business, but I think we have a manageable path to the tournament.
No doubt it's a manageable path to the Tournament. The problem is, after we beat Villanova, we had a very manageable path to a 9-4 BE record. Instead, we were at 6-7. As the author says, "one of the nation's most volatile, unpredictable teams."
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So funny how analysts/writers put on RPI goggles and slant their narratives toward that. Eamon refuses to give MU credit for anything. He starts with our loss to Butler a few weeks ago. Good grief.
They definitely do put on RPI goggles, but their narrative for MU was pretty accurate. The glaring absurdity comes in the RPI/ACC bias.
They list 14 schools from the ACC in the bubble watch. Several of those wouldn't make it to the actual bubble if they won the rest of their conference games.
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Here's something that would be funny..all we've been doing is talking about being on the bubble, how many more MU needs to lock up a bid, which bracketologists have MU in or out right now. So wouldn't all this talk be funny if the only people that matter(the committee), have MU in safely already(barring a meteoric collapse) and all this talk and worrying is for nothing?? Obviously none of us know what the committee thinks of MU right now, but it's POSSIBLE they could be so impressed with a road win at Creighton and a home win vs Nova, that they have MU already in the field(fairly comfortably right now). :)
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They definitely do put on RPI goggles, but their narrative for MU was pretty accurate. The glaring absurdity comes in the RPI/ACC bias.
They list 14 schools from the ACC in the bubble watch. Several of those wouldn't make it to the actual bubble if they won the rest of their conference games.
Ehh. Not so sure about that (its 13, BTW). Pitt is a bit of stretch, but the rest of them are legit bubble teams. The ACC will probably get 11 or 12 in this year. MU fans should be rooting strongly against Wake, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
I do agree that they definitely overweight RPI in the bubble watch analysis.
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Sports Illustrated says MU is a "should be in" on account of the Villanova and @Creighton games, and barring a disaster like losing tonight.
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/21/ncaa-tournament-bubble-teams-watch-acc-big-ten-pac-12-sec
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Tonight's bubble games listed below. To stick with the "Bubble Watch" theme, I will use teams that ESPN list as "work left to do":
Rhode Island @ Lasalle
Clemson @ Va Tech
NC State @ Georgia Tech
Evansville @ Wichita State
Indiana @ Iowa
Fringe Bubble Games (long shots at best for an at large):
Purdue @ Penn State
Auburn @ LSU
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State
Akron @ Bowling Green
Monmouth @ Fairfield
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I vow to not be pissed off if we get "screwed" by the committee. All we had to do was win a couple out of Pitt, Butler, Butler, SH and Providence, and we'd be safely in or darn close to it.
I hate it when some coach cries on Selection Sunday about how unfair it was that his 18-13 team didn't get in.
Win a few more effen games! You screwed yourself, bozo!
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I vow to not be pissed off if we get "screwed" by the committee. All we had to do was win a couple out of Pitt, Butler, Butler, SH and Providence, and we'd be safely in or darn close to it.
I hate it when some coach cries on Selection Sunday about how unfair it was that his 18-13 team didn't get in.
Win a few more effen games! You screwed yourself, bozo!
...until you see the last 4-8 teams that made it..
Thankfully, I think MU is in pretty good shape if it wins 2 out of the next 4. No other bubble teams have the wins we have.
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...until you see the last 4-8 teams that made it..
Thankfully, I think MU is in pretty good shape if it wins 2 out of the next 4. No other bubble teams have the wins we have.
Nope. Because our lads will have had ample opportunity to not put themselves in such a precarious position. I admit it won't be easy to avoid blaming others, but I vow not to do so.
The good news is that I won't have to follow through on this because we're getting in!
(Unless those a$$wipes on the committee screw us!)
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Nope. Because our lads will have had ample opportunity to not put themselves in such a precarious position. I admit it won't be easy to avoid blaming others, but I vow not to do so.
The good news is that I won't have to follow through on this because we're getting in!
(Unless those a$$wipes on the committee screw us!)
Well if Middle Tennessee and Illinois State take 2 of the final 4 spots, and we're inexplicably left out after a 9-9 finish, I will be sure to ask your thoughts! ;D
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All 28 brackets on bracket matrix that were updated today have us in the field. Anywhere from a 9 to a 12 seed.
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All 28 brackets on bracket matrix that were updated today have us in the field. Anywhere from a 9 to a 12 seed.
Now if we could just end the season immediately we would be in pretty good shape!
Oh well......
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All 28 brackets on bracket matrix that were updated today have us in the field. Anywhere from a 9 to a 12 seed.
CBS not included in that? Odd.
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I vow to not be pissed off if we get "screwed" by the committee. All we had to do was win a couple out of Pitt, Butler, Butler, SH and Providence, and we'd be safely in or darn close to it.
I hate it when some coach cries on Selection Sunday about how unfair it was that his 18-13 team didn't get in.
Win a few more effen games! You screwed yourself, bozo!
You argue for your position at the time. That's all you have. Conceptually, I don't really understand your frustration with coaches in those situations.
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CBS not included in that? Odd.
CBS last updated on Sunday, but I can't imagine he'd have us in regardless
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Out of curiosity, I replaced our two worst cupcakes (Howard and SIUE) with two cupcakes from the ~150 RPI range who do schedule buy games regularly (Albany and Grand Canyon). Our RPI jumps 21 spots to 51. With our top 50 wins, we are worrying about seeding at this point instead of us making the tourney.
This is why I hate RPI. Who cares that we creamed Howard and SIUE by 30+ instead of creaming Albany and Grand Canyon by 20+?
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So we think 9-9 gets in?
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Out of curiosity, I replaced our two worst cupcakes (Howard and SIUE) with two cupcakes from the ~150 RPI range who do schedule buy games regularly (Albany and Grand Canyon). Our RPI jumps 21 spots to 51. With our top 50 wins, we are worrying about seeding at this point instead of us making the tourney.
This is why I hate RPI. Who cares that we creamed Howard and SIUE by 30+ instead of creaming Albany and Grand Canyon by 20+?
One note, Howard was not a buy game. It was part of the 2K classic and MU had no control. Pretty unfortunate in the first place, but doubly so when their best player missed almost the whole season.
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So we think 9-9 gets in?
I do. And here's why...
Going 2-2 puts at 5th or 6th. That's assuming providence, seton hall or St. John's go 3-1. The chances more than one go 3-1 or 4-0 are unlikely.
The committee is not leaving the 5th BE team out. Not with this bubble when going 3-16 in ACC is being considered.
So let's assume we end up 6th. Who are they going to take? Providence seton hall or St. John's at 5th or MU at 6th with wins over Nova and creighton and Xavier (yes not as marquee right now)
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One note, Howard was not a buy game. It was part of the 2K classic and MU had no control. Pretty unfortunate in the first place, but doubly so when their best player missed almost the whole season.
Yep. My main point wasn't that we need to schedule better buy games, just that RPI is stupid.
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I vow to not be pissed off if we get "screwed" by the committee. All we had to do was win a couple out of Pitt, Butler, Butler, SH and Providence, and we'd be safely in or darn close to it.
I hate it when some coach cries on Selection Sunday about how unfair it was that his 18-13 team didn't get in.
Win a few more effen games! You screwed yourself, bozo!
+1. This team had no shortage of "should win" situations. Butler, Pitt and SH are 3 obvious examples. Winning any one of those is a quality win (Pitt is borderline), and we'd be in a pretty decent spot. We also had a shot at Butler the second go around and Providence. Then we peed down our leg against GT and STJ.
I think "pretty volatile" is the best description for this team. We don't need to win out. But we probably can't afford more than 2 losses (@X and @Creighton) and can't afford to go one and done in the BET.
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Out of curiosity, I replaced our two worst cupcakes (Howard and SIUE) with two cupcakes from the ~150 RPI range who do schedule buy games regularly (Albany and Grand Canyon). Our RPI jumps 21 spots to 51. With our top 50 wins, we are worrying about seeding at this point instead of us making the tourney.
This is why I hate RPI. Who cares that we creamed Howard and SIUE by 30+ instead of creaming Albany and Grand Canyon by 20+?
The exact point I made a few pages ago. Take it a step further and replace another 1 or 2, and it continues to skyrocket. Broeker really needs to do a better job at this - I know it's an inexact science and you're bound to get a couple stickers, but we've had far too many for a bunch of years straight. Other major conference teams seem to do it every year...
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Ehh. Not so sure about that (its 13, BTW). Pitt is a bit of stretch, but the rest of them are legit bubble teams. The ACC will probably get 11 or 12 in this year. MU fans should be rooting strongly against Wake, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
I do agree that they definitely overweight RPI in the bubble watch analysis.
Thanks for the correction. My opinion is that Pitt, Clemson Syracuse are out. Syracuse has a difficult enough remaining schedule that if they won the rest of their conference games they could steal a bit, but that is very unlikely.
None of those 3 should be on the bubble watch. Georgia Tech is an interesting one. They are similar to us, where they can get in if they win 2 or 3 of their remaining games. 3 and they are in, 2 and they are sweating it out.
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Ehh. Not so sure about that (its 13, BTW). Pitt is a bit of stretch, but the rest of them are legit bubble teams. The ACC will probably get 11 or 12 in this year. MU fans should be rooting strongly against Wake, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
I do agree that they definitely overweight RPI in the bubble watch analysis.
Probably get 11 or 12? That seems ridiculous.
The Big East got 11 bids in only 1 year, and all 11 of those teams went 9-9 or better in conference play. All other years, they had less than 10 bids...
Lunardi has the ACC with 10; Big 12/Big 10 with 7; Big East with 6; Pac 12 w/ 5, and SEC w/ only 4. The American/WCC/A10 are each getting 2, and that won't change...
So in your opinion, the ACC is going to steal a bid from who?
Louisville, UNC, Duke, FSU, Notre Dame are all locks, and Virginia, Miami, and Va Tech are in barring a collapse. So that's an automatic 8.
Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Pittsburgh are the final 5. You really think a minimum of 3 of those teams will get in, and possibly 4? They can't ALL do well in the ACC tournament.
I think Syracuse will be #9. Then I can see 1 of Wake or Ga Tech getting the 10th bid, depending on who has the better finish.
Clemson will likely lose tonight & vs. FSU to get to 12 regular season losses.. Don't know if anyone's ever been let in the tournament with 12 conference losses.
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Probably get 11 or 12? That seems ridiculous.
The Big East got 11 bids in only 1 year, and all 11 of those teams went 9-9 or better in conference play. All other years, they had less than 10 bids...
Lunardi has the ACC with 10; Big 12/Big 10 with 7; Big East with 6; Pac 12 w/ 5, and SEC w/ only 4. The American/WCC/A10 are each getting 2, and that won't change...
So in your opinion, the ACC is going to steal a bid from who?
Louisville, UNC, Duke, FSU, Notre Dame are all locks, and Virginia, Miami, and Va Tech are in barring a collapse. So that's an automatic 8.
Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Pittsburgh are the final 5. You really think a minimum of 3 of those teams will get in, and possibly 4? They can't ALL do well in the ACC tournament.
I think Syracuse will be #9. Then I can see 1 of Wake or Ga Tech getting the 10th bid, depending on who has the better finish.
Clemson will likely lose tonight & vs. FSU to get to 12 regular season losses.. Don't know if anyone's ever been let in the tournament with 12 conference losses.
Damn, people take things literally sometimes. Maybe I should have said 10-12. Wouldn't at all be shocked to see any one of those numbers. No way a 9-9 ACC doesn't make it, and I guarantee you at least one 8-10 team will.
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Damn, people take things literally sometimes. Maybe I should have said 10-12. Wouldn't at all be shocked to see any one of those numbers. No way a 9-9 ACC doesn't make it, and I guarantee you at least one 8-10 team will.
Should I take those numbers literally?
The difference between 10 and 12 teams is significant. No one said that 9-9 would not make the tournament. That'd be a shoe-in.
But do the math. Who actually gets to 8-10?
Wake is 6-9, and finishes with Pitt, Louisville and Va Tech.. They aren't getting 8.
Ga Tech is at 7-7. They finish with NC St, ND, Pitt, Syracuse. They'll likely be 9-9. If they are only 8-10, that means they lost 3 straight entering the ACC tournament... two of which were against bubble or non-tourny teams.. That won't get you in.
Clemson would have to win out to get there. That aint happening.
Like I said - 10 is likely their ceiling, unless one of the outsiders runs the table and wins the conference tournament.
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Clemson loses another heartbreaker
Good for us tho
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Va Tech just pulled one out against Clemson. Hit a 3 with 3.4 seconds to win by 1.
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Should I take those numbers literally?
The difference between 10 and 12 teams is significant. No one said that 9-9 would not make the tournament. That'd be a shoe-in.
But do the math. Who actually gets to 8-10?
Wake is 6-9, and finishes with Pitt, Louisville and Va Tech.. They aren't getting 8.
Ga Tech is at 7-7. They finish with NC St, ND, Pitt, Syracuse. They'll likely be 9-9. If they are only 8-10, that means they lost 3 straight entering the ACC tournament... two of which were against bubble or non-tourny teams.. That won't get you in.
Clemson would have to win out to get there. That aint happening.
Like I said - 10 is likely their ceiling, unless one of the outsiders runs the table and wins the conference tournament.
Again, maybe I should have said 10-12. I think 11 is a real possibility. Lunardi said as much earlier today on ESPN.
Clemson likely out now with a loss ANOTHER one posession loss.
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CBS not included in that? Odd.
Palm is going senile. He has Alabama in, we have better RPI, SOS, Pomeroy, and Sagarin numbers. We have three wins better than their best win, their worst loss is worse than ours, and their second and third best wins are also teams we beat.
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They just said this on the St. Johns telecast ...
Lowest ever RPI to get an at-large bid ... Syracuse last year with an RPI of 71 (10 seed).
They made the final four.
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NC State with the win at Georgia Tech
Rough night for the ACC Bubble
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Ga Tech loses to Nc State.
Northwestern loses to Illinois perhaps giving Illinois a tiny window and pushing NW closer to the bubble.
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NC State with the win at Georgia Tech
Rough night for the ACC Bubble
That's a killer loss. NCST is outside the top 100 IIRC
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Va Tech just pulled one out against Clemson. Hit a 3 with 3.4 seconds to win by 1.
Tech has pulled three miracles this season. Enough to get Buzz dancing. And enough to get the bayou Bengals interested and Buzz to cash in. The carousel keeps spinning.
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Tech has pulled three miracles this season. Enough to get Buzz dancing. And enough to get the bayou Bengals interested and Buzz to cash in. The carousel keeps spinning.
Buzz to Louisville after Slick Rick retires.
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Really good bubble night for us. Especially if Indiana loses to Iowa here.
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Tech has pulled three miracles this season. Enough to get Buzz dancing. And enough to get the bayou Bengals interested and Buzz to cash in. The carousel keeps spinning.
I have exactly zero interest in "Buzz to wherever" rumors. Ditto for "when will Indiana can Cream?"
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I have exactly zero interest in "Buzz to wherever" rumors. Ditto for "when will Indiana can Cream?"
You took the time to post this to let the community know you have no time for this?
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Really good bubble night for us. Especially if Indiana loses to Iowa here.
I4 goes down to Iowa in OT.
Ole Miss keeps their hopes alive with an OT win over MSST.
South Carolina is probably a lock but slips closer to the bubble after losing to Florida.
Penn State is official DOA after losing to Purdue
Wichita State slaughters Evansville. Gonna be pulling hard for them in the MVC tourney.
Rhode Island still has life after beating La Salle
Auburn keeps its tiny hopes alive beating LSU
Clemson loses a heartbreaker to VT (lost on a 3 pointer with 3 seconds left)
Monmouth has a distant at large hope creaming Fairfield on the road
GT loses to a BAD NC State team....in Atlanta. Might be cooked.
Definitely a good bubble night. The likely contenders lost and only the dreamers won.
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Really good bubble night for us. Especially if Indiana loses to Iowa here.
Indiana has lost 5 in a row, 7 of 8 and is in 13th place in the BIG. They are not a bubble team no matter what morons like Palm and Lunardi say.
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Indiana has lost 5 in a row, 7 of 8 and is in 13th place in the BIG. They are not a bubble team no matter what morons like Palm and Lunardi say.
And mofo T-Cubed's tush is gettin' warmer, hey?
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And mofo T-Cubed's tush is gettin' warmer, hey?
Tommy 2 NC State.
Tom's ego is too big to wait around until he's fired. He'll leave before it gets to that point.
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Tommy 2 NC State.
Tom's ego is too big to wait around until he's fired. He'll leave before it gets to that point.
Makes a lot of sense.
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Makes a lot of sense.
Yep, TC is the kind of "established coach" a lot of people want. Including a lot of Scoopers.
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USA Today bracketology update today...#10 seed playing Oklahoma State.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/22/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-wichita-state/98241924/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/22/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-wichita-state/98241924/)
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USA Today bracketology update today...#10 seed playing Oklahoma State.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/22/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-wichita-state/98241924/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/22/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-wichita-state/98241924/)
In Indy. Would love the Indy game.
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Vandy tonight would be huge. Knock Tennessee down and help their RPI for us.
Need Duke over Cuse
Ok State over Kstate
Pitt vs Wake is preferable to Pitt.
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Don't forget a pair of Big East games that have huge bubble/seeding implications..
Xavier at Seton Hall
Providence at Creighton
(... and Depaul at Georgetown)
The could be a 4 way tie at 6-9 (for seeds 6-9) if Seton & Providence both lose. That would give us a nice 2 game cushion over those teams with 3 to play.
Bluiett sounds like a game-time decision again tonight. More likely to play than last week, but still an unknown.
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Don't forget a pair of Big East games that have huge bubble/seeding implications..
Xavier at Seton Hall
Providence at Creighton
(... and Depaul at Georgetown)
The could be a 4 way tie at 6-9 (for seeds 6-9) if Seton & Providence both lose. That would give us a nice 2 game cushion over those teams with 3 to play.
Bluiett sounds like a game-time decision again tonight. More likely to play than last week, but still an unknown.
As I sad before, I very much like separation in the standings. Makes it easy for the committee.
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Pitt vs Wake is preferable to Pitt.
Could be reading this wrong but I want Pitt to beat Wake. Both are stretches to make the tournament and Pitt helps our resume.
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Could be reading this wrong but I want Pitt to beat Wake. Both are stretches to make the tournament and Pitt helps our resume.
That's what I meant.
Ya the way I wrote that probably made it seem it was preferable that Pitt loses.
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A full slate of bubble action tonight:
Vandy @ Tennessee
Michigan @ Rutgers
Duke @ Syracuse
Pitt @ Wake Forest
TCU @ Kansas
SLU @ VCU (VCU most likely safe, but will include)
Depaul @ Georgetown
Xavier @ Seton Hall
Texas A&M @ Arkansas
Minnesota @ Maryland (Minnesota likely safe at this point)
Oregon @ Cal
OK State @ K State
Providence @ Creighton
Fringe Games:
UCONN @ Houston
Boise State @ Nevada
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Thanks JJJJJ for updating that
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Out of curiosity, I replaced our two worst cupcakes (Howard and SIUE) with two cupcakes from the ~150 RPI range who do schedule buy games regularly (Albany and Grand Canyon). Our RPI jumps 21 spots to 51. With our top 50 wins, we are worrying about seeding at this point instead of us making the tourney.
This is why I hate RPI. Who cares that we creamed Howard and SIUE by 30+ instead of creaming Albany and Grand Canyon by 20+?
Took this a step further. Left Howard in there since the we got them as part of the 2K Classic. Replaced Western Carolina (execpted RPI of 278), St Francis PA (284) and SIU Edwardsville (336) with Mount St Marys (151), New Hampshire (158) and New Orleans (160). RPI jumps 20 spots to 51. Do ND State (97), Winthrop (75) and College of Charleston (67) instead, and RPI jumps to 43. Scheduling cupcakes wisely makes an enormous difference.
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Palm is so weird.
On his Tuesday bubble recap he says
"Marquette will probably not be favored in any of their 3 remaining games and they will most likely need to win 1 to be in good shape heading into the BET"
He doesn't even have us close to in, but then says we only need to get 1?
What the hell
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Palm is so weird.
On his Tuesday bubble recap he says
"Marquette will probably not be favored in any of their 3 remaining games and they will most likely need to win 1 to be in good shape heading into the BET"
He doesn't even have us close to in, but then says we only need to get 1?
What the hell
He's hammered
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Palm is so weird.
On his Tuesday bubble recap he says
"Marquette will probably not be favored in any of their 3 remaining games and they will most likely need to win 1 to be in good shape heading into the BET"
He doesn't even have us close to in, but then says we only need to get 1?
What the hell
If we knock off PC and X, we will be favored at home against CU. Maybe even X if Bluiett is still out.
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If we knock off PC and X, we will be favored at home against CU. Maybe even X if Bluiett is still out.
We will probably only be a 1-2 point underdog vs PC. And we may be favored against Creighton, although I'll guess now it opens as EVEN.
Regardless, Palm's logic doesn't seem to add up.
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Duke and Xavier absolutely melting down
Not a good start
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Vandy with big win tho
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Duke and Xavier absolutely melting down
Not a good start
X is down 3 points and Duke is winning.....
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I'll tell you what...a team that is working their way towards the bubble?? Vanderbilt Just beat Tennessee tonight, makes them 15-13 overall and 8-7 in the SEC with games remaining against Mississippi St, Florida and Kentucky. Beat MSU and steal one of those last two, and they just may get in..especially with the toughest non conf SOS in the country. All of this is great for MU, winning tonight will pretty much assure them of staying in the top 50 RPI(barring a disaster against MSU).
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X is down 3 points and Duke is winning.....
Would help if you watched the games prior to looking at the current scores
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Would help if you watched the games prior to looking at the current scores
Lol, I've watched bits and pieces of both games. Was watching end of Vandy and Michigan games.
Context is your friend. Your comment made it seem like they were getting smoked.
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I'll tell you what...a team that is working their way towards the bubble?? Vanderbilt Just beat Tennessee tonight, makes them 15-13 overall and 8-7 in the SEC with games remaining against Mississippi St, Florida and Kentucky. Beat MSU and steal one of those last two, and they just may get in..especially with the toughest non conf SOS in the country. All of this is great for MU, winning tonight will pretty much assure them of staying in the top 50 RPI(barring a disaster against MSU).
The fact that this statement is true shows why we are in such good shape.
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I'll tell you what...a team that is working their way towards the bubble?? Vanderbilt Just beat Tennessee tonight, makes them 15-13 overall and 8-7 in the SEC with games remaining against Mississippi St, Florida and Kentucky. Beat MSU and steal one of those last two, and they just may get in..especially with the toughest non conf SOS in the country. All of this is great for MU, winning tonight will pretty much assure them of staying in the top 50 RPI(barring a disaster against MSU).
Vandy most likely isn't getting an at large. Best case scenario they win out and lose in SEC tourney. That gives them 15 losses. Maybe just maybe they could grab a last bid there, but that's assuming they win out, which they probably won't. I'm rooting for them, and they look like they stick in the top 50, but just too many losses, including at least 7 in a pretty terrible SEC, to get an at large IMO.
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Duke and Xavier absolutely melting down
Not a good start
Illinois State will likely win again in unspectacular fashion, but they are in for another 1-possession game tonight (making that 3 in a row against trash competition). But I strongly believe that their only road to the NCAA's is by winning the MVC tournament.
Last season there were two top 20 RPI teams that were barred from the tournament (SMU & Louisville). Even with those two teams out of the pool, the committee could not find room for #29 SD State, #30 St Mary's, and #31 Valpo.
The only reason the MVC got 2 bids last year was because Northern Iowa won the conference tournament... and Wichita State was 1 of the last 4 in. You could argue that they would have been excluded had it not been for the sanctions against SMU/Louisville.
I get that Illinois State is currently on the doorstep. But they have 1 top 50 win on the year (Wichita State). If they win out the rest of the way and lose to WSU in the final - they will still have only 1 top 50 win on the season.
That doesn't get you in. So let's hope Wichita can take care of business this year in the conference tournament... and if they don't, I'm 100% sold the committee will find room for them either (they are 1-4 against the top 50 -- with Illinois State being the only win).
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Lol, I've watched bits and pieces of both games. Was watching end of Vandy and Michigan games.
Context is your friend. Your comment made it seem like they were getting smoked.
X offense is non existent
Dukes is bad and they foul Cuse every possession
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Hall gonna win
TCU gonna lose
Cuse is down to the wire
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GTown in a tight one with DePaul.
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unnatural carnal knowledge Grayson Allen
Just handed Cuse a bid
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Vandy most likely isn't getting an at large. Best case scenario they win out and lose in SEC tourney. That gives them 15 losses. Maybe just maybe they could grab a last bid there, but that's assuming they win out, which they probably won't. I'm rooting for them, and they look like they stick in the top 50, but just too many losses, including at least 7 in a pretty terrible SEC, to get an at large IMO.
It would be 14 instead of 13 losses in your scenario.
Last year Syracuse had 13 losses and a 64 RPI and made the Final Four.
One game at a time. They are playing well much of the time and are in it most games.
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Shouldn't hurt us too much. Banked 3 at the buzzer to win for Cuse.
SHU winning is fine it keeps that win for us top 50. Would have been out with a loss.
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unnatural carnal knowledge Grayson Allen
Just handed Cuse a bid
The kids earned that court rush.
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The kids earned that court rush.
If you mean thanks to Allen taking 30 footers with full shot clocks as earning it, yes.
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Illinois state wins unimpressively yet again
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It would be 14 instead of 13 losses in your scenario.
Last year Syracuse had 13 losses and a 64 RPI and made the Final Four.
One game at a time. They are playing well much of the time and are in it most games.
NM. Brain fart
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Looks like Georgetown is going to lose at home to DePaul off of a last second foul. That seems familiar...
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Looks like Georgetown is going to lose at home to DePaul off of a last second foul. That seems familiar...
Yep. There goes Gt.
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Pitt lost to Wake. Not sure about that one. Wake is closer to us but that all but eliminates Pitt.
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Shouldn't hurt us too much. Banked 3 at the buzzer to win for Cuse.
SHU winning is fine it keeps that win for us top 50. Would have been out with a loss.
Hall has got a really good chance to make it now. 2-1 finish gets them to 9-9 in conference. Non conference wins against South Carolina and Cal....road neutral record is better then ours...beat Xavier and Creighton....solid RPI....only bad loss is St. John's.
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Pitt also melts down
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Pitt lost to Wake. Not sure about that one. Wake is closer to us but that all but eliminates Pitt.
Should certainly hope so, Pitt was 4-10 in ACC play going into that game, now 4-11. Not even close prior to the loss.
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Should certainly hope so, Pitt was 4-10 in ACC play going into that game, now 4-11. Not even close prior to the loss.
They were in some brackets and next four out on bracket matrix
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They were in some brackets and next four out on bracket matrix
15-13, 4-10 in conference going into that game and even being considered is a joke. Not even close.
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Jay Bilas has 8 - count 'em, 8 - Big East teams in the field, ranked as follows:
1. Villanova
21. Butler
30. Xavier
33. Marquette
37. Creighton
45. Seton Hall
55. Providence
67. Georgetown (written before they crapped the bed against DePaul)
He further says this about the "inconceivably weak" field:
"There has not been such a squishy, pliable, drippy bubble in the history of the NCAA tournament, nor has there been such a shortage of worthy mid-major teams. That is not to say that some cannot win games in the first weekend, or that Gonzaga cannot win the whole thing, but the committee is going to let in at-large teams that have more losses than the Washington Generals."
Seems a little crazy - but who knows?
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Jay Bilas has 8 - count 'em, 8 - Big East teams in the field, ranked as follows:
1. Villanova
21. Butler
30. Xavier
33. Marquette
37. Creighton
45. Seton Hall
55. Providence
67. Georgetown (written before they crapped the bed against DePaul)
He further says this about the "inconceivably weak" field:
"There has not been such a squishy, pliable, drippy bubble in the history of the NCAA tournament, nor has there been such a shortage of worthy mid-major teams. That is not to say that some cannot win games in the first weekend, or that Gonzaga cannot win the whole thing, but the committee is going to let in at-large teams that have more losses than the Washington Generals."
Seems a little crazy - but who knows?
That's easy to do when he didn't include many of the mid-major conferences in his field of 68...
He just does a power rankings. He doesn't actually do a legit bracket prediction.
Kenpom also has 8 Big East teams in their Top 68 ratings. Doesn't mean he thinks 8 teams are getting in.
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MN wins @ Maryland. They were likely a near lock but this removes any doubt.
Arkansas takes down Texas A&M at home.
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MN wins @ Maryland. Together we're likely a newr lock but this removes any doubt.
Arkansas takes down Texas A&M at home.
Gophers are playing for a 6 seed.
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Gophers are playing for a 6 seed.
At this point yah. Hopefully we're the lucky 10 or 11 seed that gets em. I watch most Gopher games as they're my 2nd squad and that team is very beatable.
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At this point yah. Hopefully we're the lucky 10 or 11 seed that gets em. I watch most Gopher games as they're my 2nd squad and that team is very beatable.
There my other team too.
We match up with them well.
But the gophers match up with other teams a lot better. They are playing well.
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There my other team too.
We match up with them well.
But the gophers match up with other teams a lot better. They are playing well.
Sure are. Amazing after dropping 5 straight. Happy for them tho. They're right on that border of where the teams really drop off a cliff. Gonna be an interesting tourney.
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Sure are. Amazing after dropping 5 straight. Happy for them tho. They're right on that border of where the teams really drop off a cliff. Gonna be an interesting tourney.
It's all gravy for them this year.
Gonna be really good next year.
Need us to join them
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Hmm, gophers v Marquette would be a tough one for me. On the one hand, I'm a born and raised Minnesotan and got my graduate degree at the U. On another hand, I've sent Marquette A LOT of money in tuition, fees, room and board over the last 12 years. Think I'll need to follow the money on this one.
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Creighton with the biggest collapse of the night.
Offense went into .30 BAC mode the last 6 minutes
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Creighton with the biggest collapse of the night.
Offense went into .30 BAC mode the last 6 minutes
Yup, Cartwright hits a three pointer with 4 seconds to go. Providence wins.
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The game was 62-59 with 6 minutes to play.
Quit calling everything a collapse. Pittsburgh blew a 19 point lead. Cal was up 16, and the lead is now cut to 1..
But sure. Biggest collapse goes to Creighton..
Providence is not a bad team. That's a good win for them. Huge wins for both them and Seton Hall tonight...
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Providence has won three in a row and are 7-8 in BE play.
Games left are MU, Depaul and St. Johns.
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Gents we can't back into this one. We need 2 of 3 now.
SH and PV have an easy 3 down the stretch. They know it. They are hungry. I really believe 9-9 won't do it now. Before some doubt hut maybe.
All because it's getting crowded in my he middle of the BE. We have to take it!
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Gents we can't back into this one. We need 2 of 3 now.
I'll do the best I can.
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Providence has won three in a row and are 7-8 in BE play.
Games left are MU, Depaul and St. Johns.
Let's hope they look at this 3 game stretch the same way we looked at Providence/St Johns and DePaul following the Nova win.
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The game was 62-59 with 6 minutes to play.
Quit calling everything a collapse. Pittsburgh blew a 19 point lead. Cal was up 16, and the lead is now cut to 1..
But sure. Biggest collapse goes to Creighton..
Providence is not a bad team. That's a good win for them. Huge wins for both them and Seton Hall tonight...
They scored 4 pts in 6 minutes.
You enjoy being a unnatural carnal knowledgeing idiot?
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Kstate lost at least
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Oh good, we're heading back into panic mode now. There's been far too much positivity around here lately.
Butler 'bout to beat Nova too.
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Kstate lost at least
So did Cal.
Not as good of a night for us as last night, but still a positive. Simply, there aren't many teams we are still competing with and some of them lost.
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Cal coughed up what would have been a massive win against Oregon. Hooray!
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Gents we can't back into this one. We need 2 of 3 now.
SH and PV have an easy 3 down the stretch. They know it. They are hungry. I really believe 9-9 won't do it now. Before some doubt hut maybe.
All because it's getting crowded in my he middle of the BE. We have to take it!
Ehh. Stil think 9-9 gets us to Dayton. Just aren't that many teams with better resumes. But PC and SHU made things more interesting tonight. At the end of the day, we just need to take care of our own business (get at least 2 of 3), and what those 2 do doesn't matter.
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Friars RPI now 53.....
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Cal drops its 3rd in a row.
Finishes with a freebee against RPI-killer Oregon State, before going on the road to Utah and Colorado. They need to finish out 3-0 to feel reasonably comfortable heading into the Pac-12 tourny.
Currently sitting a mere 1-6 against the top 50.
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"The Bilas Index is the best and most reliable measure of basketball excellence and accomplishment known to man. It should be used for good and not for ill, for pure enjoyment and not for financial gain and should not be used to wager. If The Bilas Index is used in such a diabolical manner, our friends in the desert can be brought to their knees and an entire industry toppled. That would be most unfortunate."
Jay has MU at #33.
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Why do people think if Providence gets in, we are suddenly out? There's room on this crappy bubble for both teams. I love seeing the Big East bubble teams win while the other bubble teams lose.
The two teams directly in front of us on bracketmatrix (K State/California) lost tonight. The team three spots behind us lost (TCU). Vandy knocked off Tennessee, strengthening our win and kicking the Vols out of the first four out. Yes, Seton Hall (right behind us), Syracuse (4 spots behind us), Illinois State (5 spots behind us), Wake Forest (9 spots behind us), and Providence (10 spots behinds ) all won, but I think it was overall a good day for us. Seton Hall or us will slide up to the 10 seed line, the other will move out of the play in game.
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Why do people think if Providence gets in, we are suddenly out? There's room on this crappy bubble for both teams. I love seeing the Big East bubble teams win while the other bubble teams lose.
The two teams directly in front of us on bracketmatrix (K State/California) lost tonight. The team three spots behind us lost (TCU). Vandy knocked off Tennessee, strengthening our win and kicking the Vols out of the first four out. Yes, Seton Hall (right behind us), Syracuse (4 spots behind us), Illinois State (5 spots behind us), Wake Forest (9 spots behind us), and Providence (10 spots behinds ) all won, but I think it was overall a good day for us. Seton Hall or us will slide up to the 10 seed line, the other will move out of the play in game.
I agree with this analysis
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Jay Bilas has 8 - count 'em, 8 - Big East teams in the field, ranked as follows:
1. Villanova
21. Butler
30. Xavier
33. Marquette
37. Creighton
45. Seton Hall
55. Providence
67. Georgetown (written before they crapped the bed against DePaul)
He further says this about the "inconceivably weak" field:
"There has not been such a squishy, pliable, drippy bubble in the history of the NCAA tournament, nor has there been such a shortage of worthy mid-major teams. That is not to say that some cannot win games in the first weekend, or that Gonzaga cannot win the whole thing, but the committee is going to let in at-large teams that have more losses than the Washington Generals."
Seems a little crazy - but who knows?
Eff em all. Don't back down. Great that Providence won. Make Saturday sweeter. Warrior Nation. Earn this.
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Despite everyone freaking out last night, Lunardi moved us up 3 spots since Monday. In his updated projections, Marquette is the last team that avoids Dayton and plays 6 seed Oklahoma State in Orlando
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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Grabbed the last bye in Lunardis bracket.
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Despite everyone freaking out last night, Lunardi moved us up 3 spots since Monday. In his updated projections, Marquette is the last time that avoids Dayton and plays 6 seed Oklahoma State in Orlando
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Ok State would be a wild one. They don't play a lick of D either. First to 110 wins.
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Our biggest asset is our top 50 wins. Currently 5-5 against the top 50. But we have several opponents currently flirting with the top 50 line: Vanderbilt (47th), Seton Hall (48th), Michigan (51st), Providence (54th), Georgia (57th).
Unlikely that all 5 would get into the top 50. But has the potential to move our top 50 W-L record as low as 3-6 (assuming losses to Creighton/X) or as high as 9-7 (assuming wins @Providence, @X, vs. Creighton). Here's what these opponents have the rest of the way:
Vanderbilt: Mississippi State, @Kentucky, Florida (Likely 1-2)
Seton Hall: @Depaul, Georgetown, @Butler (Likely 2-1)
Michigan: Purdue. @Northwestern, @Nebraska (Likely 1-2)
Providence: Marquette, Depaul, @St. John's (Likely 3-0)
Georgia: @Alabama, LSU, Auburn, @Arkansas (Likely 3-1)
Using RPI wizard, here are the final RPIs if those games play out like expected:
Vanderbilt: 49
Seton Hall: 45
Michigan: 49
Providence: 50
Georgia: 50
Obviously...not a perfect system. Can't have two 49s and two 50s. What it tells me is that all of these teams would likely be in the 45-55 range. Michigan will be the team to watch. Two of the games I have them losing (Purdue and @NW) are considered tossups on RPI forecast. Win either one and they can solidify themselves as a top 50 team. Georgia @Alabama is another tossup that could go against us. We are actually currently favored to beat Providence at RPI Forecast so that would likely keep them out of the top 50...but I'd be more than happy with that.
In the end, lets just go 3-0 and remove all doubt eh? ;D
EDIT: Looked at Pittsburgh too. They are currently 65th in RPI. They are likely to go 0-3 the rest of the way (UNC, @GT, @UVA). But if they somehow went 2-1, they also would have an RPI of 50 per RPI Wizard. So....possible.
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Despite everyone freaking out last night, Lunardi moved us up 3 spots since Monday. In his updated projections, Marquette is the last team that avoids Dayton and plays 6 seed Oklahoma State in Orlando
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
I am part of "everyone." I did not freak out.
We're gonna win Saturday and cruise into the Dance!
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Why do people think if Providence gets in, we are suddenly out? There's room on this crappy bubble for both teams. I love seeing the Big East bubble teams win while the other bubble teams lose.
The two teams directly in front of us on bracketmatrix (K State/California) lost tonight. The team three spots behind us lost (TCU). Vandy knocked off Tennessee, strengthening our win and kicking the Vols out of the first four out. Yes, Seton Hall (right behind us), Syracuse (4 spots behind us), Illinois State (5 spots behind us), Wake Forest (9 spots behind us), and Providence (10 spots behinds ) all won, but I think it was overall a good day for us. Seton Hall or us will slide up to the 10 seed line, the other will move out of the play in game.
TAMU--is it possible to direct me (us) the running list of legitimate bubble teams--or perhaps post it? You seem to have the best pulse on this topic. I've seen so called bubble teams in other threads that are not included in other bubble team lists. I understand it is not an exact science, and it's fluid--but I would like to get a better handle on who truly are the bubble teams. Thank you.
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TAMU--is it possible to direct me (us) the running list of legitimate bubble teams--or perhaps post it? You seem to have the best pulse on this topic. I've seen so called bubble teams in other threads that are not included in other bubble team lists. I understand it is not an exact science, and it's fluid--but I would like to get a better handle on who truly are the bubble teams. Thank you.
Honestly, all i did was look at Bracket Matrix (http://bracketmatrix.com/). Hardly a perfect system but it gives a good sense of where you stand in the eyes of all the different bracketologists.
It hasn't been updated yet today. But I'd imagine that we will move up either two spots or possibly only one due to Seton Hall beating X. Syracuse could theoretically jump us as well with their win @Duke.
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Thank you sir.
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Palm moved us in.
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Palm moved us in.
No way.
So basically, he kept us out for no logical reason, and then the first time in weeks that the bubble has a good night and he could justify keeping us out, he moves us in. Nice.
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TAMU--is it possible to direct me (us) the running list of legitimate bubble teams--or perhaps post it? You seem to have the best pulse on this topic. I've seen so called bubble teams in other threads that are not included in other bubble team lists. I understand it is not an exact science, and it's fluid--but I would like to get a better handle on who truly are the bubble teams. Thank you.
For better or worse, I actually think the Eamonn Brennan's Bubble Watch on ESPN is a decent list of the bubble teams--some of the analysis itself gets annoying, but I think he usually does a good job of tracking the trends in Bubbleland and then describing what recent/upcoming games might have an impact on bubble chances writ large. I believe it is updated twice weekly during most of the season, and then daily in the last few weeks.
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Let's hope they look at this 3 game stretch the same way we looked at Providence/St Johns and DePaul following the Nova win.
PC totally due to lose now and will take us too lightly. Just can't get into a huge hole like at the BC as we shot only 39%. We have our 'normal' shooting and win.
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Our biggest asset is our top 50 wins. Currently 5-5 against the top 50. But we have several opponents currently flirting with the top 50 line: Vanderbilt (47th), Seton Hall (48th), Michigan (51st), Providence (54th), Georgia (57th).
Unlikely that all 5 would get into the top 50. But has the potential to move our top 50 W-L record as low as 3-4 or as high as 7-7 (assuming a win @Providence). Here's what these opponents have the rest of the way:
Vanderbilt: Mississippi State, @Kentucky, Florida (Likely 1-2)
Seton Hall: @Depaul, Georgetown, @Butler (Likely 2-1)
Michigan: Purdue. @Northwestern, @Nebraska (Likely 1-2)
Providence: Marquette, Depaul, @St. John's (Likely 3-0)
Georgia: @Alabama, LSU, Auburn, @Arkansas (Likely 3-1)
Using RPI wizard, here are the final RPIs if those games play out like expected:
Vanderbilt: 49
Seton Hall: 45
Michigan: 49
Providence: 50
Georgia: 50
Obviously...not a perfect system. Can't have two 49s and two 50s. What it tells me is that all of these teams would likely be in the 45-55 range. Michigan will be the team to watch. Two of the games I have them losing (Purdue and @NW) are considered tossups on RPI forecast. Win either one and they can solidify themselves as a top 50 team. Georgia @Alabama is another tossup that could go against us. We are actually currently favored to beat Providence at RPI Forecast so that would likely keep them out of the top 50...but I'd be more than happy with that.
In the end, lets just go 3-0 and remove all doubt eh? ;D
EDIT: Looked at Pittsburgh too. They are currently 65th in RPI. They are likely to go 0-3 the rest of the way (UNC, @GT, @UVA). But if they somehow went 2-1, they also would have an RPI of 50 per RPI Wizard. So....possible.
Great post. Thanks for the analysis. What's your take on importance of the top 50 for our wins versus our losses? I would think we'd prefer our wins (Vandy, Georgia, PC (but not at expense of beating us), Seton Hall) to finish in the top 50. Obviously it'd be nice to have our losses to Michigan and Pitt be top 50 as well, but does that really matter in your opinion? I have hard time believing the committee is going to differentiate much if they finish above 50. It would, in fact, improve our top 50 RPI winning percentage, but lower our 50-100 winning percentage.
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For better or worse, I actually think the Eamonn Brennan's Bubble Watch on ESPN is a decent list of the bubble teams--some of the analysis itself gets annoying, but I think he usually does a good job of tracking the trends in Bubbleland and then describing what recent/upcoming games might have an impact on bubble chances writ large. I believe it is updated twice weekly during most of the season, and then daily in the last few weeks.
Yah, that's the best source IMO. Bracketmatrix works too, but can be a bit overwhelming to look at if you're not used to it, and tougher to differentiate auto bids and at large bids.
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No way.
So basically, he kept us out for no logical reason, and then the first time in weeks that the bubble has a good night and he could justify keeping us out, he moves us in. Nice.
Yeah he really has no logic
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Great post. Thanks for the analysis. What's your take on importance of the top 50 for our wins versus our losses? I would think we'd prefer our wins (Vandy, Georgia, PC (but not at expense of beating us), Seton Hall) to finish in the top 50. Obviously it'd be nice to have our losses to Michigan and Pitt be top 50 as well, but does that really matter in your opinion? I have hard time believing the committee is going to differentiate much if they finish above 50. It would, in fact, improve our top 50 RPI winning percentage, but lower our 50-100 winning percentage.
Top 50 wins matter more. But top 50 losses look better than 51-100 losses. I don't think winning% vs a specific group matters.
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Top 50 wins matter more. But top 50 losses look better than 51-100 losses. I don't think winning% vs a specific group matters.
You don't think 6-4 versus top 50 looks better than 6-6 versus top 50? I'm honestly not sure, since like I said, we'd have more 50+ losses. At the end of the day, I think it is just one more thing the committee is going to look at along with Kempom, Sagrin, raw RPI, conference record, etc. But the more top 50 wins we can get the better, we can all agree there.
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You don't think 6-4 versus top 50 looks better than 6-6 versus top 50? I'm honestly not sure, since like I said, we'd have more 50+ losses. At the end of the day, I think it is just one more thing the committee is going to look at along with Kempom, Sagrin, raw RPI, conference record, etc. But the more top 50 wins we can get the better, we can all agree there.
No. Because going 6-4 against top 50 vs. 6-6 against top 50 means we have 2 more losses against 51-100. Top 50 losses are always better than 51-100 losses.
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Our biggest asset is our top 50 wins. Currently 5-5 against the top 50. But we have several opponents currently flirting with the top 50 line: Vanderbilt (47th), Seton Hall (48th), Michigan (51st), Providence (54th), Georgia (57th).
Unlikely that all 5 would get into the top 50. But has the potential to move our top 50 W-L record as low as 3-6 (assuming losses to Creighton/X) or as high as 9-7 (assuming wins @Providence, @X, vs. Creighton). Here's what these opponents have the rest of the way:
Vanderbilt: Mississippi State, @Kentucky, Florida (Likely 1-2)
Seton Hall: @Depaul, Georgetown, @Butler (Likely 2-1)
Michigan: Purdue. @Northwestern, @Nebraska (Likely 1-2)
Providence: Marquette, Depaul, @St. John's (Likely 3-0)
Georgia: @Alabama, LSU, Auburn, @Arkansas (Likely 3-1)
Using RPI wizard, here are the final RPIs if those games play out like expected:
Vanderbilt: 49
Seton Hall: 45
Michigan: 49
Providence: 50
Georgia: 50
Obviously...not a perfect system. Can't have two 49s and two 50s. What it tells me is that all of these teams would likely be in the 45-55 range. Michigan will be the team to watch. Two of the games I have them losing (Purdue and @NW) are considered tossups on RPI forecast. Win either one and they can solidify themselves as a top 50 team. Georgia @Alabama is another tossup that could go against us. We are actually currently favored to beat Providence at RPI Forecast so that would likely keep them out of the top 50...but I'd be more than happy with that.
In the end, lets just go 3-0 and remove all doubt eh? ;D
EDIT: Looked at Pittsburgh too. They are currently 65th in RPI. They are likely to go 0-3 the rest of the way (UNC, @GT, @UVA). But if they somehow went 2-1, they also would have an RPI of 50 per RPI Wizard. So....possible.
Edited my original post. Forgot to include the games @X and Creighton in our potential top 50 record.
Also, I forgot Maten is hurt for Georgia. That moves their chances of going 3-1 down significantly. Man, they could do us a huge favor though if they could find a way to upset Arkansas on the road. They are only a few spots ahead of us.
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http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/)
4th to last team in on this am's update. Seton Hall jumped us for last bye. In 107/115 brackets. In all but 1 bracket updated since SJU win (which is Realtime RPI (http://realtimerpi.com/bracketology/bracketology_Men.html (http://realtimerpi.com/bracketology/bracketology_Men.html)), who for some reason hates us as I don't believe we've made their field all year, even after Nova win.
That said, if more brackets had been updated, pretty sure K State, and perhaps Cal would have dropped below us. They were dropped from several brackets this am.
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Tonight's action:
Georgia @ Alabama (Georgia fringe at best)
Nebraska @ Michigan State
USC @ Arizona
Fringe games:
Utah @ Colorado
Wisconsin @ Ohio State (OSU has virtually no chance of at large)
Towson @ UNC Wilmington (LONG shot at best for at large)
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Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.
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Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.
They are only 6 spots ahead of us according to bracket matrix. If they lose from here out, that's a spot we could leap into.
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Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.
If I owned a bubble watch service, I would make my bubble discussions as broad as possible. Essentially anyone who if they win a bunch in a row can play themselves in all the way to the teams that are likely safe but if they poop the bed they would fall out.
This way I am both accurate and get the most amount of fans hitting my report.
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Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.
Lunardi has them 2 spots in front of us
They only have 2 top 50 wins (2-5) and are only 5-6 vs the top 100. Two of those wins (Texas AM and BYU) could fall out of the top 100.
If they lose a couple of games and those 2 fall out of the top 100, they could miss. Tough to get in with 3 top 100 wins...
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Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.
They're most likely safe (was going to add that note), but really their resume is not special. 2 top 50 wins, both at home versus SMU and UCLA (we have 5). 5 top 100 wins (we have 8, with at least 4 more tries. USC has 0 top 100 games left, so only opportunities for bad losses). Best road win at Tex A&M. Played a god awful non con schedule. Besides the UCLA win, they haven't beaten anyone of substance in an extremely top heavy Pac12.
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Serious question. With remaining games against Butler, MU and DePaul, does Xavier fail to make the tournament if they go 1-2?
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Serious question. With remaining games against Butler, MU and DePaul, does Xavier fail to make the tournament if they go 1-2?
Nah. 0-3 and they are in trouble, but 1-2 they'd be fine. They have non-con wins over Clemson, Utah and Wake Forest, 3 other bubble teams. Only losses @ Baylor and @ Colorado.
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I do think it would be funny as we sit here and talk about being on the bubble, if the committee actually would have MU safely in at this point, with no real chance of falling out unless they lost out. You just never know. They may see something with MU they like, that all the bracketologists aren't seeing.
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Serious question. With remaining games against Butler, MU and DePaul, does Xavier fail to make the tournament if they go 1-2?
They're probably fine(more fine than MU would be at 9-9 in conference). Committee would probably give them the benefit of the doubt in having to figure out how to play without Sumner
We want X to beat Butler tho, so we get more credit when we beat them :)
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Ok State would be a wild one. They don't play a lick of D either. First to 110 wins.
Want to see
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I do think it would be funny as we sit here and talk about being on the bubble, if the committee actually would have MU safely in at this point, with no real chance of falling out unless they lost out. You just never know. They may see something with MU they like, that all the bracketologists aren't seeing.
Great point.
They also may have us clearly out and needing 20 wins to have a shot as well.
That's why we're best off just speculating based off what the majority of brackets have us lol
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Nah. 0-3 and they are in trouble, but 1-2 they'd be fine. They have non-con wins over Clemson, Utah and Wake Forest, 3 other bubble teams. Only losses @ Baylor and @ Colorado.
Agreed, losing out including a loss @ Depaul just might push them out. But their RPI is so strong. Teams from power conferences with those type of power numbers don't get left out. When X most likely loses to Butler on Saturday, we're going to be facing a determined bunch next Tuesday, with X having dropped 5 straight.
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Agreed, losing out including a loss @ Depaul just might push them out. But their RPI is so strong. Teams from power conferences with those type of power numbers don't get left out. When X most likely loses to Creighton on Saturday, we're going to be facing a determined bunch next Tuesday, with X having dropped 5 straight.
Butler not Creighton.
I will say the one thing working against X is the committee does like to 1. Take a look at how your playing lately(didn't hurt Cuse last year tho) and 2. How your current roster is playing.
So if X keeps losing without sumner, maybe things get dicey?
I just hope we can help add to that dicey.
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Butler not Creighton.
I will say the one thing working against X is the committee does like to 1. Take a look at how your playing lately(didn't hurt Cuse last year tho) and 2. How your current roster is playing.
So if X keeps losing without sumner, maybe things get dicey?
I just hope we can help add to that dicey.
Yes, thank you.
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Jerry coming around...
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-bracket-syracuse-last-team-in-duke-maintains-3-seed-unc-jumps-to-1-seed/
The Golden Eagles are back in the bracket after beating Xavier and St. John’s in the last week. Marquette has a poor strength of schedule, which is dragging them down, but they have five top 50 wins, including one on the road and another on a neutral court. The ability to beat good teams away from home is the primary reason why Marquette is ahead of Syracuse.
The upcoming schedule is pretty tough for the Golden Eagles though. They have road games at Providence and Xavier, which should be playing with some level of desperation, then finish at home against Creighton. Marquette’s tournament standing will likely still be in doubt entering the Big East tournament.
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Georgia up 3 at Alabama w 4 to go. On ESPN2.
A bulldog win would be doubly sweet.
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Jerry coming around...
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-bracket-syracuse-last-team-in-duke-maintains-3-seed-unc-jumps-to-1-seed/
The Golden Eagles are back in the bracket after beating Xavier and St. John’s in the last week. Marquette has a poor strength of schedule, which is dragging them down, but they have five top 50 wins, including one on the road and another on a neutral court. The ability to beat good teams away from home is the primary reason why Marquette is ahead of Syracuse.
The upcoming schedule is pretty tough for the Golden Eagles though. They have road games at Providence and Xavier, which should be playing with some level of desperation, then finish at home against Creighton. Marquette’s tournament standing will likely still be in doubt entering the Big East tournament.
It will be interesting to see what happens with Syracuse. Last year they were one of the teams who's RPI was about 72 which was one of the worst ever in the tourney from a non conf. tournament winner. Yet, they made the final four. Perhaps that works in Syracuse's favor. Regardless, the best thing MU can do is finish strong. If they win out, then they're in despite a 1st round BE conf tourney loss.
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Georgia gonna win. Nice road W
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Georgia up 3 at Alabama w 4 to go. On ESPN2.
A bulldog win would be doubly sweet.
Thank You, Georgia.
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Georgia up 3 at Alabama w 4 to go. On ESPN2.
A bulldog win would be doubly sweet.
Geaogia won!
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Regardless, the best thing MU can do is finish strong. If they win out, then they're in despite a 1st round BE conf tourney loss.
2-1 MU is stone cold lock regardless of what happens in BET. Book it.
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Georgia gonna win. Nice road W
I've never paid much attention to the Palm site, but the "What can MU do to boost its RPI today" is interesting.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
So far everything has happened.
Georgia, St. Francis, IUPUI winners so far
Houston Baptist right now down but not out, and UDub probably beats The Ohio St.
Stating the obvious like so many before me, all MU has to do is win.
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I was only half watching at the gym, but I'm pretty sure when ESPN ran a package on Alabama's Tournament Resume during the game against Georgia, one of the criteria they listed was Alabama's rebounds per game. Can anyone back me up on that? Struck me as one of the dumber things I've ever seen.
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Babtist came back to win.....UW losing by 9
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Overall good day on the bubble for MU.
USC loses to Arizona.
All former Marquette opponents besides Bucky won (Georgia, IUPUI, Houston Baptist)
Gardner-Webb won (lots of common opponents with MU)
Biggest win of the day was Georgia over Bama on the road. Boosts our RPI (Georgia now 51st in RPI) and likely bursts Bama's bubble.
All this resulted in a nice 4 spot bump in RPI for MU.
Nebraska failed to beat Michigan State but that was hardly a surprise. UNC-Wilmington also came back to beat Towson but I would be shocked if they actually managed an at large bid.
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Bubble watch is more fun than Kostas watch
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Bubble watch is more fun than Kostas watch
Haha. That was solid.
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I've never paid much attention to the Palm site, but the "What can MU do to boost its RPI today" is interesting.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
CBS has a very good site!
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Overall good day on the bubble for MU.
USC loses to Arizona.
All former Marquette opponents besides Bucky won (Georgia, IUPUI, Houston Baptist)
Gardner-Webb won (lots of common opponents with MU)
Biggest win of the day was Georgia over Bama on the road. Boosts our RPI (Georgia now 51st in RPI) and likely bursts Bama's bubble.
All this resulted in a nice 4 spot bump in RPI for MU.
Nebraska failed to beat Michigan State but that was hardly a surprise. UNC-Wilmington also came back to beat Towson but I would be shocked if they actually managed an at large bid.
Not knocking you at all, but this info is exactly why the RPI as key indicator of entry into the tournament is so stupid. MU moves up 4 spots in the RPI simply because teams we played and teams our opponents played have won or lost.
RPI is a stat from a by-gone era and the sooner it dies, the better off we'll all be.
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It is stupid. To have a meaningful measurement be 'we put in the walk-ons with 8 minutes to go' against an RPI 300 team vs. 'we put in the walk-ons with 2 minutes' against a RPI 200 winning both games by 25 is simply crazy. And it's bad for college basketball. Just a couple of years ago Grambling couldn't even fill out their schedule because of the RPI hit folks would take.
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It is stupid. To have a meaningful measurement be 'we put in the walk-ons with 8 minutes to go' against an RPI 300 team vs. 'we put in the walk-ons with 2 minutes' against a RPI 200 winning both games by 25 is simply crazy. And it's bad for college basketball. Just a couple of years ago Grambling couldn't even fill out their schedule because of the RPI hit folks would take.
??? Scoring margins have ZERO effect on RPI.
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Not knocking you at all, but this info is exactly why the RPI as key indicator of entry into the tournament is so stupid. MU moves up 4 spots in the RPI simply because teams we played and teams our opponents played have won or lost.
RPI is a stat from a by-gone era and the sooner it dies, the better off we'll all be.
Oh, I absolutely agree. Everyone but the committee seems to realize this. But they are supposedly moving away from it so maybe there is hope.
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??? Scoring margins have ZERO effect on RPI.
His point was that its dumb that we are being punished because we played cupcakes that were so bad that we could play our walk ons with 8 minutes left vs. playing cupcakes where we couldn't play our walk ons until 2 minutes left.
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Tonight's bubble action:
Oregon State @ California
Siena @ Monmouth (fringe at best)
Akron @ Buffalo (fringe at best)
Saturday's (rather broad) bubble games:
FL State @ Clemson
UNC @ PITT (Pitt probably has to win out regular season, plus several wins in ACCT at this point)
Wichita State @ Missouri State
Tennessee @ South Carolina
West Virginia @ TCU
Texas Tech @ OK State (OK State likely safe)
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa
VCU @ Rhode Island (VCU likely safe)
Seton Hall @ Depaul
Northeastern @ UNC-Wilmington (UNC-W longshot at best for at large)
Missouri @ Ole Miss
Miss. St @ Vandy
Purdue @ Michigan
Duke @ Miami (Miami likely safe at this point)
Marquette @ Providence
LSU @ Georgia (Georgia is a long shot at best)
Kansas State @ Oklahoma
Nevada @ UNLV (Nevada long shot at best)
Alabama @ Tex. A&M
Northwestern @ Indiana (Indiana a long shot, NW creeping closer to bubble)
Arkansas @ Auburn (Auburn long shot at best)
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His point was that its dumb that we are being punished because we played cupcakes that were so bad that we could play our walk ons with 8 minutes left vs. playing cupcakes where we couldn't play our walk ons until 2 minutes left.
Ahh misread it. Yah, I mean, at the end of the day, replace our three worst buy games with three buy games around 150ish and our RPI isn't an issue, and we still would have smoked those teams. I agree RPI is super lame and out of date. But some of this is on MU for poor buy game scheduling, something they've made a habit of lately.
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Ahh misread it. Yah, I mean, at the end of the day, replace our three worst buy games with three buy games around 150ish and our RPI isn't an issue, and we still would have smoked those teams. I agree RPI is super lame and out of date. But some of this is on MU for poor buy game scheduling, something they've made a habit of lately.
Or have one or two of our actual buy games not have critical injuries or play in a conference where the competition is terrible.
Last year, I had all sorts of issues with how MU scheduled, they corrected that for the most part this season but still get burned potentially.
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Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence
Pitt in NYC
@Seton Hall
@Butler
Providence
I originally argued Butler because that would give us a big top 25 road win, but as I thought about it more, I would say @Seton Hall. Gives us a top 50 road win, plus with the way the season has turned out that would likely eliminate Hall as a competitor for a bid.
Thoughts?
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??? Scoring margins have ZERO effect on RPI.
I understand. My only point is that we win either game with little effort. As such, it's a terrible measurement of how good we are but does impact a measuring stick.
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Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence
Why not include G-Town and STJ? I think those had the most impact.
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Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence
Pitt in NYC
@Seton Hall
@Butler
Providence
I originally argued Butler because that would give us a big top 25 road win, but as I thought about it more, I would say @Seton Hall. Gives us a top 50 road win, plus with the way the season has turned out that would likely eliminate Hall as a competitor for a bid.
Thoughts?
In a vacuum Butler because at that point we are 9-6 with another big win.
Part of me says Providence if it means preventing the post-Nova slide and we'd be in comfortably.
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Why not include G-Town and STJ? I think those had the most impact.
The Georgetown loss is not hurting us at all. They were a top 100 loss on the road and until this week were still in bubble consideration.
Even St. Johns is not a bad loss compared to what is on the ledgers for most bubble teams.
What is hurting us the most is home losses that reduce our RPI.
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I understand. My only point is that we win either game with little effort. As such, it's a terrible measurement of how good we are but does impact a measuring stick.
Agreed, just misread it.
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Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence
Pitt in NYC
@Seton Hall
@Butler
Providence
I originally argued Butler because that would give us a big top 25 road win, but as I thought about it more, I would say @Seton Hall. Gives us a top 50 road win, plus with the way the season has turned out that would likely eliminate Hall as a competitor for a bid.
Thoughts?
Without question, this is it.
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Why not include G-Town and STJ? I think those had the most impact.
Two reasons, neither of those games had outcomes that were ever really in doubt or anything other than a likely Marquette loss and as those were road games they don't negatively impact our RPI as much as home losses do.
(Yes, those road wins would have helped but since the game wasn't in doubt, isn't worth the debate IMO)
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Tonight's bubble action:
Oregon State @ California
Siena @ Monmouth (fringe at best)
Akron @ Buffalo (fringe at best)
Saturday's (rather broad) bubble games:
FL State @ Clemson
UNC @ PITT (Pitt probably has to win out regular season, plus several wins in ACCT at this point)
Wichita State @ Missouri State
Tennessee @ South Carolina
West Virginia @ TCU
Texas Tech @ OK State (OK State likely safe)
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa
VCU @ Rhode Island (VCU likely safe)
Seton Hall @ Depaul
Northeastern @ UNC-Wilmington (UNC-W longshot at best for at large)
Missouri @ Ole Miss
Miss. St @ Vandy
Purdue @ Michigan
Duke @ Miami (Miami likely safe at this point)
Marquette @ Providence
LSU @ Georgia (Georgia is a long shot at best)
Kansas State @ Oklahoma
Nevada @ UNLV (Nevada long shot at best)
Alabama @ Tex. A&M
Northwestern @ Indiana (Indiana a long shot, NW creeping closer to bubble)
Arkansas @ Auburn (Auburn long shot at best)
Think IU plays loose and blows out a super tense NW team that has lost 2 of 3 with a narrow win sandwiched in between against Rutgers at home (lost to Maryland at home & at Illinois). Collins will have to prove his worth in Bloomington. Serious gut check game.
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Think IU plays loose and blows out a super tense NW team that has lost 2 of 3 with a narrow win sandwiched in between against Rutgers at home (lost to Maryland at home & at Illinois). Collins will have to prove his worth in Bloomington. Serious gut check game.
I think both us and Northwestern will get in. But how hilarious would it be if Northwestern missed and we made it after all the posts about how we got the lesser of the former Duke assistants?
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I think both us and Northwestern will get in. But how hilarious would it be if Northwestern missed and we made it after all the posts about how we got the lesser of the former Duke assistants?
It would be a fun 8-9 game in Indy. Probably not in the cards though.
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It would be a fun 8-9 game in Indy. Probably not in the cards though.
Playing in Indy would be pretty great...I have a hunch we'll be sent West (which won't be so bad because we'll be dancin')
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Playing in Indy would be pretty great...I have a hunch we'll be sent West (which won't be so bad because we'll be dancin')
If we are in Indy on Friday... who is setting up the scoop caravan / bus? I'm in.
(If we make it knock on wood don't wanna upset the basketball Gods)
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Playing in Indy would be pretty great...I have a hunch we'll be sent West (which won't be so bad because we'll be dancin')
Right now Joe Lunardi has us in as a 11 seed ( last 4 bye) and playing oklahoma state in orlando
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I'm hoping we're in (obviously) and playing in Greenville. Nice short trip for me!
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I'm hoping we're in (obviously) and playing in Greenville. Nice short trip for me!
+1,000
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feb. 23 update according to eamonn brennan of espn--one man's opinion
"Marquette [17-10 (8-7), RPI: 67, SOS: 70] Marquette handled St. John's at home Tuesday, a nice respite in the midst of a particularly challenging closing slate to the regular season. The Golden Eagles finish with trips to Providence and Xavier, followed by a visit from Creighton. Marquette has more quality wins than most of the bubble at this point, but its jagged RPI and strength-of-schedule numbers -- especially its sub-250 noncon-SOS mark -- could become a disproportionate drag on its resume"
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Some article on Twitter by some guy, I'm not going back to dig it back up because I already have the nervous poops about the game today and will be at work for it sadly... but the twitter article said this:
Marquette (17-10, 8-7 Big East)
Marquette is a team that just started to break into the bubble as of late, but their resume looks good compared to some of their competition. They’re 6-5 against the RPI top 50, including marquee wins over the big three in the Big East: Villanova, Xavier, and Creighton. Their next three games are @Providence, @Xavier, and Creighton. A win in any of those games would improve their stock a good amount. Marquette may be a bit underrated now, but I’m hoping they pick up the steam they deserve and make it into the field of 68. Chance: 75%
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Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence
Pitt in NYC
@Seton Hall
@Butler
Providence
I originally argued Butler because that would give us a big top 25 road win, but as I thought about it more, I would say @Seton Hall. Gives us a top 50 road win, plus with the way the season has turned out that would likely eliminate Hall as a competitor for a bid.
Thoughts?
Providence, no question. Like it or not, RPI still matters, and not losing at home is more important than winning on the road. Maybe if Katin's fadeaway falls, we don't have that precipitous slide. And if we want fewer teams on the bubble, it would've accomplished that as well.
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Poor Clemson.
Although they won a national title in football. Their fan base is good for a while.
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Poor Clemson.
Although they won a national title in football. Their fan base is good for a while.
That's a big result. They're done with 12 conference losses. Likely would have been 50/50 at 7-11
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Pitt lost. Wichita state won
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Tennessee down 20 with 4 min left.
Texas Tech down 18 at half time.
Illinois state is up 5 at half.
Road island down 1 with 1 min left in the first half.
If these teams go 0-4 it would make a great first half of the day on the bubble for MU with Clemson already listing.
Seton hall up over DePaul at half. No surprise there though.
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Seton hall up over DePaul at half. No surprise there though.
DePaul had a lead with about 3 minutes left in half. Since then 22-4 Hall run. I was hoping for the Demons to knock SH off the bubble, but I don't see it happening now.
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Do we have a reason to care about Creighton and Nova?
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Tennessee down 20 with 4 min left.
Texas Tech down 18 at half time.
Illinois state is up 5 at half.
Road island down 1 with 1 min left in the first half.
If these teams go 0-4 it would make a great first half of the day on the bubble for MU with Clemson already listing.
Seton hall up over DePaul at half. No surprise there though.
TCU up 2 on WVU is huge.
WVU is so blahh and we need them to win
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Do we have a reason to care about Creighton and Nova?
No idea from a metrics stand point but from strictly the eye test I would think a victory over a 1 seed would have the greatest influence for MU and for that reason I'm rooting for Nova.
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Vcu the newest team we need help from to enter meltdown mode
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Vcu the newest team we need help from to enter meltdown mode
They look bad but URI was favored by 4 so I wouldn't really call it a meltdown for them to be down 7
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They look bad but URI was favored by 4 so I wouldn't really call it a meltdown for them to be down 7
They were up 3. And went down by 13
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Do we have a reason to care about Creighton and Nova?
Absolutely we do! If Creighton loses and MU wins, MU will currently move into the #3 seed for the BE tourney, and no matter what Xavier does, that can't change until at least next week.
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URI, Illinois state and seton all looking like winners.
We need Texas tech and TCU to lose.
And more than anything, we need MUBB to win today. Hoping the team puts one together in the gold kits again!
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Absolutely we do! If Creighton loses and MU wins, MU will currently move into the #3 seed for the BE tourney, and no matter what Xavier does, that can't change until at least next week.
We control our own destiny for the 3.
I'd rather Nova stay a 1 seed
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DePaul ain't dead. Down 5.
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As I said don't take WVU in the tourney
Just bad offense
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So bad.
WVU needs a stop
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WVU gets a gift call and TCU misses a wide open 3 at buzzer.
TCU and TT lose
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Vandy wins.
Michigan wins.
Georgia up 2 with 6 to go vs LSU.
K State getting blown out at Oklahoma. There's a bad loss for a bubble team.
At this point I think PC slides ahead of SHU and Marq for the 5th BE bid. In hindsight, would have been nice for SHU to lose today. With just SJU and DePaul left for PC, looks like they'll get to 10-8 and be safely in.
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We're fine. This was the toughest game of our last three. I like our odds of going 2-0 next week and removing all doubt.
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We're fine. This was the toughest game of our last three. I like our odds of going 2-0 next week and removing all doubt.
We have a few days off to prep for X then we got senior day vs creighton
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Also KenPom has us at 32
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Lunardi still has us in. Last 4.
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Lunardi still has us in. Last 4.
Jerry palm has us last 4 in as a 11 seed playing Kansas State. We got 2 huge games left probably 3 huge games left actually. All opportunities for big wins, let's do it
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Where are you seeing that?
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We're fine. This was the toughest game of our last three. I like our odds of going 2-0 next week and removing all doubt.
While I appreciate the optimism, this was the easiest of our final three games. X is down their two best guys, so maybe we have a chance, but Creighton is a real contender in our league. PC is not.
Let's pray we steal a win against a Xavier team playing without its leaders, which would help our RPI. And let's hope Wojo figures something out against Creighton for senior day. But I won't be surprised to see Wojo find a way to close out the season in an 0-3 note. He can compete, but he has a hard time winning for some reason.
Job security for mediocre performance must be nice.
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While I appreciate the optimism, this was the easiest of our final three games. X is down their two best guys, so maybe we have a chance, but Creighton is a real contender in our league. PC is not.
Let's pray we steal a win against a Xavier team playing without its leaders, which would help our RPI. And let's hope Wojo figures something out against Creighton for senior day. But I won't be surprised to see Wojo find a way to close out the season in an 0-3 note. He can compete, but he has a hard time winning for some reason.
Job security for mediocre performance must be nice.
Home is always easier than road IMHO. Providence should theoretically be easier than Xavier but they haven't looked good for awhile. Will be intriguing to see how they do against Butler tomorrow.
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The loss sucked but honestly was a good bubble day for us otherwise.
Alabama goes down to TAMU.
Pitt lost to UNC (though that hurts our RPI)
TCU lost to West Virginia
Michigan beat Purdue (giving us another top 50 opponent)
Clemson lost to FSU
Tennesse humiliated by South Carolina
Texas Tech crushed by Ok State
Vandy beat Mississippi State (keeps them top 50)
Houston Baptist won (helps RPI)
Georgia beat LSU (helping RPI)
10-18 Oklahoma DESTROYED Kansas State
SIU Edwardsville won their first game since losing to us!
Wichita State did beat Missouri State
Illinois State beat Northern Iowa
Rhode Island beat VCU
Indiana beat Northwestern (not sure they still have a chance)
Howard lost (not surprising)
Western Carolina lost (not surprising)
IUPUI lost (not surprising)
Arkansas won (probably a lock now)
My conclusion is that it's a lot easier to win in a mid major conference. Will be interesting to see how they value Wichita State, Middle Tennessee State, Illinois State, and Rhode Island when comparing them to teams like Marquette.
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Bracket matrix hasn't updated yet, but the brackets that have we are still in all of them, FWIW.
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Today:
Middle Tennessee @ UAB
Cuse @ Louisville
Butler @ Xavier
Wisconsin @ Michigan State
Monmouth @ Iona
Houston @ Memphis
Georgia Tech @ Norte Dame
USC @ Az State
Illinois @ Nebraska
Extensive damage to the bubble will occur today.
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USA Today has MU in as a 10 in the Sunday bracket.
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Here is one of my favorite bracketology sites. They do a great job summarizing all the different metrics, and it has a pretty cool listing of the broader bubble that allows you to analyze the teams all in one spot. Worth checking out if you like to follow the bubble, or would like to learn more about how MU stacks up with the 10-15 or so teams legitimately in contention for the last 8 or so spots.
http://www.seed-madness.com/ (http://www.seed-madness.com/)
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USA Today has MU in as a 10 in the Sunday bracket.
I really hope we aren't a 10 seed, but i mean i just want to get in. I'd prefer a 11 or 12
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Palm, who has been more negative towards MU versus other well respected bracketologists, has MU as his 3rd to last in the tournament in his update this morning.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
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Here is one of my favorite bracketology sites. They do a great job summarizing all the different metrics, and it has a pretty cool listing of the broader bubble that allows you to analyze the teams all in one spot. Worth checking out if you like to follow the bubble, or would like to learn more about how MU stacks up with the 10-15 or so teams legitimately in contention for the last 8 or so spots.
http://www.seed-madness.com/ (http://www.seed-madness.com/)
I certainly hope all these fancy websites are accurate. Would be fantastic to get in the Big Dance. Until then I will stick with my theory that we need 21 wins to get in.
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I certainly hope all these fancy websites are accurate. Would be fantastic to get in the Big Dance. Until then I will stick with my theory that we need 21 wins to get in.
Facts and real data points are your friend.
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Facts and real data points are your friend.
I have been a participant in too many committees were supposedly unbiased fact base people decide on emotion, then they rearrange the criteria to fit their selection. There is always going to be some one on that committee that has outsized influence.
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Facts and real data points are your friend.
I love everything you post regarding the bubble etc...but in this one instance, I agree with NY, not on the 21 wins, but that i don't trust the committee, never have never will. When you are talking the human element, anything is in play. Facts and data points are solid, but really came into play for me last year when Cuse got in.
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I have been a participant in too many committees were supposedly unbiased fact base people decide on emotion, then they rearrange the criteria to fit their selection. There is always going to be some one on that committee that has outsized influence.
Ok, so lets say Marquette goes 1-1 with a W over Creighton and 1-1 in the BET. 19-13. Let's use the latest bracket matrix as the source, http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/), and say all teams from 9 seeds to 1 seeds are locks. Let's assume there are 10 at larges between the 10-12 seed lines. (68 teams; 32 conferences = 36 at large teams). So after Arkansas being the last lock, please list off to me 10 teams that the committee will select that are more deserving than MU. And please consider their future schedule. And the fact that a 15 loss at large team has never made it. You'll quickly find out that it won't be possible to fill the field with 20+ win teams unless you invite all the MMs, and you'll also quickly find out that it gets pretty hairy toward the end.
I'd love to see you attempt to do this since you're so sure it will take 21 wins.
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I certainly hope all these fancy websites are accurate. Would be fantastic to get in the Big Dance. Until then I will stick with my theory that we need 21 wins to get in.
Since you say the committee is biased I assume you believe that some teams can get in that don't get to 21 wins but they have more respected coaches than what MU has. ::)
Just so I'm aware, of the bubble teams, which teams do you believe the biased selection committee would put in with less than 21 wins?
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Ok, so lets say Marquette goes 1-1 with a W over Creighton and 1-1 in the BET. 19-13. Let's use the latest bracket matrix as the source, http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/), and say all teams from 9 seeds to 1 seeds are locks. Let's assume there are 10 at larges between the 10-12 seed lines. (68 teams; 32 conferences = 36 at large teams). So after Arkansas being the last lock, please list off to me 10 teams that the committee will select that are more deserving than MU. And please consider their future schedule. And the fact that a 15 loss at large team has never made it. You'll quickly find out that it won't be possible to fill the field with 20+ win teams unless you invite all the MMs, and you'll also quickly find out that it gets pretty hairy toward the end.
I'd love to see you attempt to do this since you're so sure it will take 21 wins.
The thing that always worries me with the committee, is what if for whatever reason someone(s) on the committee doesn't like Marquette, regardless of what the numbers say. Maybe they don't like Wojo, maybe they think their uniforms are ugly, maybe at one point their son/daughter got denied admission...what i'm saying is, you can never discount the human element and the biases that may exist with some committee members.
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Since you say the committee is biased I assume you believe that some teams can get in that don't get to 21 wins but they have more respected coaches than what MU has. ::)
Just so I'm aware, of the bubble teams, which teams do you believe the biased selection committee would put in with less than 21 wins?
Michigan State
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The thing that always worries me with the committee, is what if for whatever reason someone(s) on the committee doesn't like Marquette, regardless of what the numbers say. Maybe they don't like Wojo, maybe they think their uniforms are ugly, maybe at one point their son/daughter got denied admission...what i'm saying is, you can never discount the human element and the biases that may exist with some committee members.
Cmon. This is silly. There is nothing that suggest the committee is out to screw over Marquette.
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In 28/31 brackets updated this morning on bracket matrix. First or second team out in the 3 we weren't in.
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Michigan State
MSU has an RPI of 47. They are in.
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somone make a poll for will we make the tourney or not
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Cmon. This is silly. There is nothing that suggest the committee is out to screw over Marquette.
No, there's no definitive proof of that, but I always think it's going to occur. Because you know what, it could. You never say never. The thing is, when they were locks I always worried they'd get screwed with their seeding/matchup etc, and there were some years I thought they definitely did. This year is different, they are on the bubble, they haven't been on the bubble this late in the year in many years. At this point, they have typically either been safely in or obviously out. What if the committee says you know what, this years bubble is so bad, let's take more mid majors and leave out some of the bigger guys. It's the human element..anything is possible. This is why I almost wish computers would make the picks at least then it's based strictly on numbers, and no one could really bitch.
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Middle Tennessee down 3 with 1.5 to go on CBSSN.
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Cmon. This is silly. There is nothing that suggest the committee is out to screw over Marquette.
I don't think there is a bias against MU. It is more about the teams the committee may unnecessarily be promoting. Syracuse performance last year , or some of the mid major successes,gives guys who are making the case for someone who has less of a resume.
Part of the reason I am pushing for 21 this year , is our total body of work would be good/very good on most objective matrices. With our no bad losses somewhat offsetting weaker strength of schedule .
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I don't think there is a bias against MU. It is more about the teams the committee may unnecessarily be promoting. Syracuse performance last year , or some of the mid major successes,gives guys who are making the case for someone who has less of a resume.
Part of the reason I am pushing for 21 this year , is our total body of work would be good/very good on most objective matrices. With our no bad losses somewhat offsetting weaker strength of schedule .
I figured you'd ignore my question...
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Middle Tennessee down 3 with 1.5 to go on CBSSN.
MTSU up 2 with 4.5 seconds to go. UAB ball.
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USB gets a really good look at a 3. Misses. MTSU wins.
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The thing that always worries me with the committee, is what if for whatever reason someone(s) on the committee doesn't like Marquette, regardless of what the numbers say. Maybe they don't like Wojo, maybe they think their uniforms are ugly, maybe at one point their son/daughter got denied admission...what i'm saying is, you can never discount the human element and the biases that may exist with some committee members.
I am saying they could possibly take teams with wins in the teens. Not saying 21 is an overall standard. It is just my standard for us. I hope I am wrong because getting to 21 is going to be hard.
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Valpo not really a bubble team, but now they really aren't as they're about to lose to Northern Kentucky. One less MM bid stealer to concern ourselves with.
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Valpo not really a bubble team, but now they really aren't as they're about to lose to Northern Kentucky. One less MM bid stealer to concern ourselves with.
That is good news.
We want Xavier to win today.
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That is good news.
We want Xavier to win today.
No! Other than having to face them Wednesday coming off five straight losses, it's about seeding for the BET at this point. I know this, I will be rooting HARD for Georgetown, SJU and ...gulp DePaul(what a terrible group to have to depend on) Tuesday night vs SH, Creighton and PC respectively. Maybe DePaul can make themselves useful and do MU a solid Tuesday night and knock off PC...It's about seeding for the BET at this point...the higher the better for MU, gotta get out of that "tied" group. Tiebreakers don't work in MU's favor. SJU knocking off Creighton is the least important of those 3 though.
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No! Other than having to face them Wednesday coming off five straight losses, it's about seeding for the BET at this point. I know this, I will be rooting HARD for Georgetown, SJU and ...gulp DePaul(what a terrible group to have to depend on) Tuesday night vs SH, Creighton and PC respectively. Maybe DePaul can make themselves useful and do MU a solid Tuesday night and knock off PC...It's about seeding for the BET at this point...the higher the better for MU, gotta get out of that "tied" group. Tiebreakers don't work in MU's favor. SJU knocking off Creighton is the least important of those 3 though.
We beat Xavier we want their resume to be strong . We want all Big East teams tournament worthy teams to Do well as it either directly or indirectly helps us. NCAA positioning more important than BET seeding. Every single game in Garden will be a battle no matter who we play.
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That is good news.
We want Xavier to win today.
Do we? Not so sure.
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Cuse down 20 on the road @ Louisville with 5 to go.
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Cuse down 20 on the road @ Louisville with 5 to go.
This is what i'm talking about with not trusting the committee..Cuse really doesn't deserve to get in again this year, but I bet they do, and their performance last year will be part of the reason. It's not right, but that's what I mean by the human element.
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This is what i'm talking about with not trusting the committee..Cuse really doesn't deserve to get in again this year, but I bet they do, and their performance last year will be part of the reason. It's not right, but that's what I mean by the human element.
I think they probably do. 6 top 50 wins. At worst .500 in the best conference. Wins over Florida State, Duke, Virginia. If they lose their last game to Ga Tech and a first round exit in the ACC tourney, they may be close (would be the 1st team ever to make it with 15 losses) but I think they're fine. Only major thing going against them in RPI. I fully expect Cuse to beat Georgia Tech in their final ACC game and make the tournament.
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X loses.
Monmouth wins (remains an enormous long shot for an at large)
Looks like Michigan State is gonnna knock off the Vadgers and likely be in pretty good shape
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Not really bubble related, but UW has to be slipping towards an 8/9 seed right?? We have already seen the committee doesn't have a lot of respect for the B10, and UW is finally showing their true colors. I'd love for them to have to play a #1 for once in the 2nd round(if they get that far) and be out on the 1st weekend.
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Depends on what they do at the B1G Tourney. My guess is they're a 6 or 7.
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I'm happy for those MU fans who purchase Milwaukee NCAA tickets...shouldn't have to deal with the moron brigade this year.
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Depends on what they do at the B1G Tourney. My guess is they're a 6 or 7.
It will be interesting to see what the committee does with them...They have only 3 wins vs. the top 50 RPI, and their non conf schedule SOS is the 2nd worst(265) of any team that is projected to get in right now as an at large..only Va Tech's is worse. We already know the committee doesn't view the Big very highly(and rightly so). if they were to seed teams strictly by RPI right now, UW would be the last 8 seed(32 RPI).
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Houston and Memphis In a good one 69-68 with 2 to go. CBSSN
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Houston and Memphis In a good one 69-68 with 2 to go. CBSSN
Houston hangs on for a 1 point win. Still a long shot for a bid.
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Ga Tech down 6 at ND at half.
USC up 48-47 on Arizona State at a half. Would be a bad loss for USC.
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Houston hangs on for a 1 point win. Still a long shot for a bid.
NIT bid that is. You're about as goofy in the head as they come. MU's resume doesn't warrant them a bid at this point. They'll have to win out in regular season and not get blown out in the conf. tourney.
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NIT bid that is. You're about as goofy in the head as they come. MU's resume doesn't warrant them a bid at this point. They'll have to win out in regular season and not get blown out in the conf. tourney.
The fuc* are you even talking about? I am talking about Houston. Ya know, a 20-8 team in a dog sh** conference whose best wins are Rhode Island and Vermont, that is currently on the bubble.
Dude, you have no idea what you're talking about. If you think MU has no chance to win another game - fine. But they are still very much alive for an at large. Educate yourself a bit before you continue to talk out of your ass.
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NIT bid that is. You're about as goofy in the head as they come. MU's resume doesn't warrant them a bid at this point. They'll have to win out in regular season and not get blown out in the conf. tourney.
I believe JJJJJ was referring to Houston, not MU.
I do think we need to win out to feel comfortable for an NCAA berth. But I think 1 win gives a shot as well. Could you please explain what about our resume in comparison with other bubble teams makes you so sure we are not tournament worthy when 90 out of 98 bracket experts think we are?
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Ga Tech down 6 at ND at half.
In other news, Ben Lammers on Ga Tech looks like he's turned into a nice post player. Averaging 14.5/9.5 as a junior. I know he were in his final 3 or 4 Buzzs final year.
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How long before X becomes a bubble team? They've dropped five in a row, and the committee may discount some of their early season wins without Sumner.
If we beat X on Wednesday, do we pass them in the at large pecking order?
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How long before X becomes a bubble team? They've dropped five in a row, and the committee may discount some of their early season wins without Sumner.
If we beat X on Wednesday, do we pass them in the at large pecking order?
They should be fine at 9-9 with that RPI. But if they drop their final 2, they're gonna be in trouble. They do end with DePaul.
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Georgia Tech loses. Up to 13 losses with vs Pitt and @ Cuse left on their schedule. Probably has to win both of those to get an at large and stay under the 15 loss threshold that an at large has never had. Lunardi had them in last four in as if this morning.
USC loses to 12-16 Az State (RPI 135) and is going to find themselves much much closer to the bubble tomorrow. Now .500 in a pretty bad PAC 12 after the top 3.
It has been a good day.
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Illinois beats Nebraska. Man Nebraska sucks.
FWIW, Seth Davis says Marquette "prolly" gets in at 9-9 on twitter. Don't shoot the messenger.
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How long before X becomes a bubble team? They've dropped five in a row, and the committee may discount some of their early season wins without Sumner.
If we beat X on Wednesday, do we pass them in the at large pecking order?
I think, if they lose to MU they should be in trouble. Maybe the committee will think differently than me. However, assuming they beat DePaul and lose in the first round of conference tournament they will have gone 1-7 (?) in their last eight games. They would have clearly shown they are not a even a good team without Sumner. Throw in the fact that while they have a very high RPI they do not have wins against top teams. The RPI may say one thing, but their actual results would show that they do not deserve a bid. However, if they beat MU and DePaul they are safely in.
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The fuc* are you even talking about? I am talking about Houston. Ya know, a 20-8 team in a dog sh** conference whose best wins are Rhode Island and Vermont, that is currently on the bubble.
Dude, you have no idea what you're talking about. If you think MU has no chance to win another game - fine. But they are still very much alive for an at large. Educate yourself a bit before you continue to talk out of your ass.
Awesome.
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Joey has Marquette has his 2nd to last team in on his bracket update this morning. His last four are Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette and Vandy. Has us playing Seton Hall in the play in game, which I highly doubt the committee will do.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
I think the best news here is that when you look at his first 8 teams out, there is a pretty clear delineation between us and them at the moment. Remember that no 15 loss team has ever received an at large.
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2 teams we beat right in there too...
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Joey has Marquette has his 2nd to last team in on his bracket update this morning. His last four are Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette and Vandy. Has us playing Seton Hall in the play in game, which I highly doubt the committee will do.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
I think the best news here is that when you look at his first 8 teams out, there is a pretty clear delineation between us and them at the moment. Remember that no 15 loss team has ever received an at large.
Any good news is good news.
How accurate is Lunardi historically?
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1st four out:
Georgia Tech - 16-13 (7-9)
Remaining Schedule: vs. PITT, @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, vs. Notre Dame
Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (77), RPI (96), Sagrin (81), BPI (92), SOR (57)
Record vs. top 50: 4-7
Record vs. top 100: 6-11
Wake Forest - 16-12 (7-9)
Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Miami, vs. Pitt, @ College of Charleston
Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (33), RPI (45), Sagrin (38), BPI (33), SOR (46)
Record vs. top 50: 1-9
Record vs top 100: 6-12
Rhode Island - 19-9 (11-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ St. Joes, vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (44), Sagrin (54), BPI (41), SOR (60)
Record vs. top 50: 2-3
Record vs. top 100: 4-7
Georgia - 17-12 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, @ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Tennessee
Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (56), Sagrin (50), BPI (65), SOR (52)
Record vs. top 50: 1-7
Record vs. top 100: 8-11
And Marquette as a comp:
Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
Record vs. top 50: 5-6
Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10
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1st four out:
Georgia Tech - 16-13 (7-9)
Remaining Schedule: vs. PITT, @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, vs. Notre Dame
Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (77), RPI (96), Sagrin (81), BPI (92), SOR (57)
Record vs. top 50: 4-7
Record vs. top 100: 6-11
Wake Forest - 16-12 (7-9)
Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Miami, vs. Pitt, @ College of Charleston
Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (33), RPI (45), Sagrin (38), BPI (33), SOR (46)
Record vs. top 50: 1-9
Record vs top 100: 6-12
Rhode Island - 19-9 (11-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ St. Joes, vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (44), Sagrin (54), BPI (41), SOR (60)
Record vs. top 50: 2-3
Record vs. top 100: 4-7
Georgia - 17-12 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, @ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Tennessee
Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (56), Sagrin (50), BPI (65), SOR (52)
Record vs. top 50: 1-7
Record vs. top 100: 8-11
And Marquette as a comp:
Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
Record vs. top 50: 5-6
Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10
Almost literally they only reason MU would be compared negatively with those teams is RPI. That is why those who say we're out unless we win a couple in the Big East are nuts.
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Almost literally they only reason MU would be compared negatively with those teams is RPI. That is why those who say we're out unless we win a couple in the Big East are nuts.
Yep.....I am doing my part to show those naysayers what the information out there reflects...and to me, its quite obvious.
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Any good news is good news.
How accurate is Lunardi historically?
Very
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Any good news is good news.
How accurate is Lunardi historically?
66/68 last year. 67/68 in 2015. 68/68 in 2014. Good, but not perfect. We're waaay too close for comfort.
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Almost literally they only reason MU would be compared negatively with those teams is RPI. That is why those who say we're out unless we win a couple in the Big East are nuts.
Gotta get at least 1 of these final 2. That is for sure.
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Gotta get at least 1 of these final 2. That is for sure.
That's what is so frustrating. We effin had it.
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That's what is so frustrating. We effin had it.
Agreed. And I think if more people were saying "I'm pissed off because we had a chance to basically sew up a bid and we blew it" vs "I'm pissed off because now we need to win out to make the tournament or we suck or MU's season is over", there wouldn't be much argument.
I think we win on Wednesday. And then we're in good shape.
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Agreed. And I think if more people were saying "I'm pissed off because we had a chance to basically sew up a bid and we blew it" vs "I'm pissed off because now we need to win out to make the tournament or we suck or MU's season is over", there wouldn't be much argument.
I think we win on Wednesday. And then we're in good shape.
When Doug Gottlieb tweeted that if Marquette won they would make the tourney...the run started. I blame him....
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Agreed. And I think if more people were saying "I'm pissed off because we had a chance to basically sew up a bid and we blew it" vs "I'm pissed off because now we need to win out to make the tournament or we suck or MU's season is over", there wouldn't be much argument.
I think we win on Wednesday. And then we're in good shape.
Yep. Wednesday is like a 'do over'. THIS time they need to get it right.
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That's what is so frustrating. We effin had it.
If MU holds the lead in the games in which it has blown double digit second half leads, not only would we effin have it, we would be debating seeds, matchups, and whether MU makes it to the second weekend. Alas.
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If MU holds the lead in the games in which it has blown double digit second half leads, not only would we effin have it, we would be debating seeds, matchups, and whether MU makes it to the second weekend. Alas.
Welcome to youth and inexperience
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Somehow, someway, we will get in. I don't know how, but it'll happen.
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Welcome to youth and inexperience
We are not that young. In our 9-man rotation, only four guys (Howard, Hauser, Heldt & Cheatham) have less than 2 years experience.
Fischer, JJJ, Wilson, Rowsey and Reinhardt all are in their fourth year or more of college hoops.
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We are not that young. In our 9-man rotation, only four guys (Howard, Hauser, Heldt & Cheatham) have less than 2 years experience.
Fischer, JJJ, Wilson, Rowsey and Reinhardt all are in their fourth year or more of college hoops.
Ha, so only half with two freshman and Heldt who is the equivalent of a freshman as far as PT to date? Also, two of those other guys have never played with the team until this year. Not an excuse, but understandable why it took Wojo so long to distribute the minuets in an effective manner -- now if we can just figure out how to win as a team down the stretch.
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We are not that young. In our 9-man rotation, only four guys (Howard, Hauser, Heldt & Cheatham) have less than 2 years experience.
Fischer, JJJ, Wilson, Rowsey and Reinhardt all are in their fourth year or more of college hoops.
You gotta look at it from a minutes played perspective not from a roster make up standpoint. Howard, Hauser, Heldt, Rowsey, and Katin combined have played more than 50% of our minutes and they haven't played for MU previously in any kind of consequential way (Heldt had almost no minutes last year)
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If MU holds the lead in the games in which it has blown double digit second half leads, not only would we effin have it, we would be debating seeds, matchups, and whether MU makes it to the second weekend. Alas.
Conversely, we also had a ridiculous comeback of our own against the #1 team in the country and held onto leads against Vanderbilt, Georgia, Xavier and Creighton. While we all would love them to win every game consistently, and they are certainly frustrating at times, we should make sure not to forget the big games that they did win.
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Completely agree. MU has won some games they shouldn't have. But fans tend to fixate on the ones that got away and there are a selection of those this season. IMO, losing the big leads is more frustrating to many than getting smoked.
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In Lunardi's new bracket lunardi has us playing seton hall as a play in game ?-(
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In Lunardi's new bracket lunardi has us playing seton hall as a play in game ?-(
3 Big East teams in the first four, which makes a conference matchup necessary.
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3 Big East teams in the first four, which makes a conference matchup necessary.
Weird, don't they usually try to avoid the same conference teams playing each other in the first round
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Win Wednesday, and I'll feel much better. Lunardi is the best at picking the tourney. I know we can do it.
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The games I would consider that probably "should" have gone a different way than they did this year that have involved Marquette are:
Went against Marquette:
- at Seton Hall
- at Providence
- vs. Pitt
Went in Marquette's favor:
Had a chance to steal but probably shouldn't have (and didn't):
- at Butler
- vs. Butler
- vs. Providence
These things usually even out in the end. But so far they haven't. Who knows, maybe we steal 2 that we get outplayed in for 38 minutes before we end the year and it does even out.
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The games I would consider that probably "should" have gone a different way than they did this year that have involved Marquette are:
Went against Marquette:
- at Seton Hall
- at Providence
- vs. Pitt
Went in Marquette's favor:
Had a chance to steal but probably shouldn't have (and didn't):
- at Butler
- vs. Butler
- vs. Providence
These things usually even out in the end. But so far they haven't. Who knows, maybe we steal 2 that we get outplayed in for 38 minutes before we end the year and it does even out.
To further your point, KenPom lists MU as one of the unluckiest teams in all of college basketball. Our luck ranking, which is measured by the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record, is 324 out of 347. That's pretty unreal. If we can finally see some past-due reversion than MU will be dancing.
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3 Big East teams in the first four, which makes a conference matchup necessary.
Yah, but I guarantee you it won't end up that way. They'd bump their favorite of the three BE teams up to an 11 and bye. They won't do a conference matchup in the first four, tho I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 BE teams in Dayton, but in separate matchups.
If any of SHU, PC and/or MU finish 10-8, they won't be playing in Dayton.
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Last bye in today's Bracket Matrix update.
http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/)
Still in 102 of 113 bracket projections.
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Yah, but I guarantee you it won't end up that way. They'd bump their favorite of the three BE teams up to an 11 and bye. They won't do a conference matchup in the first four, tho I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 BE teams in Dayton, but in separate matchups.
If any of SHU, PC and/or MU finish 10-8, they won't be playing in Dayton.
Agree. The only exception is if they truly believe the Big East has the last 3 teams in, they should just play the rematch instead of bumping a team up and penalizing a "more deserving" team.
Bracket Matrix update: 44/51 brackets updated today have us in the tournament. We are in 102/113 projected brackets total.
For comparison, Rhode Island is the first team out. They are in 39/113 projected brackets.
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Agree. The only exception is if they truly believe the Big East has the last 3 teams in, they should just play the rematch instead of bumping a team up and penalizing a "more deserving" team.
Bracket Matrix update: 44/51 brackets updated today have us in the tournament. We are in 102/113 projected brackets total.
For comparison, Rhode Island is the first team out. They are in 39/113 projected brackets.
Of the one's we weren't in that were updated today, we were first team out in 5, 4th team one in 1, and the other didn't list the just missed teams.
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Okay, I think we are all in agreement that if MU wins both this week, there is a strong likelihood, they are IN the NCAA's..But...are we certain that 10-8 gets them out of Dayton?? My concern with Dayton is, if you lose, it's like you weren't even in because you are home before the tourney really kicks off on Thursday. That would be depressing.
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Okay, I think we are all in agreement that if MU wins both this week, there is a strong likelihood, they are IN the NCAA's..But...are we certain that 10-8 gets them out of Dayton?? My concern with Dayton is, if you lose, it's like you weren't even in because you are home before the tourney really kicks off on Thursday. That would be depressing.
We are not all in agreement that there is a strong likelihood MU is in. I would say it is possible we are in.
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Lock for in the field of 64.
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We are not all in agreement that there is a strong likelihood MU is in. I would say it is possible we are in.
If we win BOTH?
Yeah, some people do think the sun revolves around the earth, I guess.
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Okay, I think we are all in agreement that if MU wins both this week, there is a strong likelihood, they are IN the NCAA's..But...are we certain that 10-8 gets them out of Dayton?? My concern with Dayton is, if you lose, it's like you weren't even in because you are home before the tourney really kicks off on Thursday. That would be depressing.
No, all but a couple loonies agree that if MU wins both this week, they are a LOCK for the NCAAs WITH a bye.
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If we win BOTH?
Yeah, some people do think the sun revolves around the earth, I guess.
Assuming we win both.
I still think we need to win Two more in the BET to make it a strong likelihood. One BET a likelihood and no BET a possibility.
Part of my theory is that wheels coming off Wagon at Xavier and to a lesser extent Creighton are not helpful to our cause.
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Assuming we win both.
I still think we need to win Two more in the BET to make it a strong likelihood. One BET a likelihood and no BET a possibility.
Part of my theory is that wheels coming off Wagon at Xavier and to a lesser extent Creighton are not helpful to our cause.
(http://cdn.playbuzz.com/cdn/8e286ba2-4aeb-4c29-80f0-b330b965b904/83fedf6f-7dd6-4aa9-87ec-eb7188dd35c9.png)
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Okay, I think we are all in agreement that if MU wins both this week, there is a strong likelihood, they are IN the NCAA's..But...are we certain that 10-8 gets them out of Dayton?? My concern with Dayton is, if you lose, it's like you weren't even in because you are home before the tourney really kicks off on Thursday. That would be depressing.
If we win both, we are a stone cold lock for the round of 64 at 10-8. Those that are unwilling to agree with that are just bullheaded (nice word), unwilling to examine the bubble, or some mixture of both.
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Assuming we win both.
I still think we need to win Two more in the BET to make it a strong likelihood. One BET a likelihood and no BET a possibility.
Part of my theory is that wheels coming off Wagon at Xavier and to a lesser extent Creighton are not helpful to our cause.
The problem is the team is all over the map. Great blowout wins, and frustrating choke jobs.
Need to win the last two to get in, and that may not be enough depending on what happens this last week.
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The problem is the team is all over the map. Great blowout wins, and frustrating choke jobs.
Need to win the last two to get in, and that may not be enough depending on what happens this last week.
Any BE will get in, with a bye, at 10-8. I'd bet a lot of money on it.
And I'd be utterly shocked if any BE team was left out at 9-9. SHOCKED. I'd still bet a good deal on that. A 9-9 team that gets bounced in the first round of the BET will probably be in Dayton, and needs to hope that a sub .500 team from a power 6 doesn't win their conference tourney, or some obscure team from the A10 or AAC, but outside of 3+ of those happening, I don't see a .500 or better team from the ACC, BE, B10, or B12 not making it.
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Winning at Xavier and beating Creighton are two high quality wins. Probably somewhat overrated, because they are not as good as they were before they lost their point guards. However, I see no way they are not in, if they win both.
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Any BE will get in, with a bye, at 10-8. I'd bet a lot of money on it.
And I'd be utterly shocked if any BE team was left out at 9-9. SHOCKED. I'd still bet a good deal on that.
It would not shock me, if a 9-9 Big East team gets left out of NCAA tournament. It would not shock me if an 8-10 Big East team gets left out of NIT.
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It would not shock me, if a 9-9 Big East team gets left out of NCAA tournament.
Pay more attention. Only chance would be if PC lost to Depaul on Tuesday (ends at 9-9), gets the 7 seed in the BE tourney, and loses to Depaul again. They still may get into Dayton at 9-9 there, but it'd be close with THREE losses to Depaul on the year.
Chances of that happening are close to 0%, IMO.
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66/68 last year. 67/68 in 2015. 68/68 in 2014. Good, but not perfect. We're waaay too close for comfort.
What has been Jerry Palm's record at CBS been?
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I agree, wouldn't be shocked. Do I think that would happen (9-9, lose 1st rd BET, left out), no not at all. You leave a little bit of a door open though. Illinois could get these last 2 and be sitting at 9-9 with a better RPI. There's a lot of things that could happen, and ways the committe decides to interpret things. Bracket Matrix was 65/68 last year, fortunately we fit the profile more closely of the three teams that got added (Cuse, Tulsa, Vandy) vs those that go left out (St Marys, St Bon, San Diego) other than the whole religious thing. Quality wins have proven to be a lot more important that quantity of wins.
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Pay more attention. Only chance would be if PC lost to Depaul on Tuesday (ends at 9-9), gets the 7 seed in the BE tourney, and loses to Depaul again. They still may get into Dayton at 9-9 there, but it'd be close with THREE losses to Depaul on the year.
Chances of that happening are close to 0%, IMO.
I did not say they were going to get left out, just that it would not shock me. We do not know hat else is going to happen. Certainly BYU beating Gonzaga gives them a chance for a bid. Iowa got to .500 in Big 10 and now play the badgers who are in their own free fall. They could play themselves in. Other teams could win their conference tournament that would not normally get a bid. There is a good possibility that 9-9 is not good enough, if some things happen.
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I did not say they were going to get left out, just that it would not shock me. We do not know hat else is going to happen. Certainly BYU beating Gonzaga gives them a chance for a bid. Iowa got to .500 in Big 10 and now play the badgers who are in their own free fall. They could play themselves in. Other teams could win their conference tournament that would not normally get a bid. There is a good possibility that 9-9 is not good enough, if some things happen.
Iowa and BYU are not getting at larges.
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Iowa and BYU are not getting at larges.
Correct.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/BYU/brigham-young-cougars (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/BYU/brigham-young-cougars)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/IOWA/iowa-hawkeyes (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/IOWA/iowa-hawkeyes)
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In addition to the bubble being awful, it helps that two of the few surging bubble teams are Vandy and Georgia. Besides the fact that we have a neutral and road win over two fellow bubble teams, it's moving our RPI up. About 10 days ago an 18-12 record projected to give MU a 71 RPI.
Now, an 18-12 record projects to RPI of 65/66. That's a safe number for a team with our record vs the top 50/100 and other computer numbers
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I ran a few scenarios with RPIWizard. I know it's not exact, but with 2 games left plus conference tournaments, the projections should be pretty accurate.
Scenario 1: 1-1 finish, 6 seed, followed by BET loss to Creighton in the first round.
W-L RPI* SOS
18-13 68 40
Scenario 2: 1-1 finish, 7 seed, first round win vs. DePaul, loss to Butler in the 2nd round
W-L RPI* SOS
19-13 68 52
Scenario 3: 2-0 down the stretch, 5 seed first round loss to Providence
W-L RPI* SOS
19-12 60 51
Scenario 4: 0-2 to finish the year, 7 seed, beat DePaul, beat Butler, lose to Creighton
W-L RPI* SOS
19-14 69 41
Scenario 5: 0-2 to finish the year, 7 seed, beat DePaul, beat Butler, Beat Creighton, lose to Nova
W-L RPI* SOS
20-14 59 34
I think we may be safe in any of those scenarios, even the two where we finish 8-10 in the Big East. Scenario 4 obviously worries me, but I would maintain that winning 1 of the next 2 and avoiding a game with DePaul should be enough.
I didn't run any scenarios where we lost the next 3 or any where we won more than 2 because in those situations we should be out or safely in.
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I ran a few scenarios with RPIWizard. I know it's not exact, but with 2 games left plus conference tournaments, the projections should be pretty accurate.
Scenario 1: 1-1 finish, 6 seed, followed by BET loss to Creighton in the first round.
W-L RPI* SOS
18-13 68 40
Scenario 2: 1-1 finish, 7 seed, first round win vs. DePaul, loss to Butler in the 2nd round
W-L RPI* SOS
19-13 68 52
Scenario 3: 2-0 down the stretch, 5 seed first round loss to Providence
W-L RPI* SOS
19-12 60 51
Scenario 4: 0-2 to finish the year, 7 seed, beat DePaul, beat Butler, lose to Creighton
W-L RPI* SOS
19-14 69 41
Scenario 5: 0-2 to finish the year, 7 seed, beat DePaul, beat Butler, Beat Creighton, lose to Nova
W-L RPI* SOS
20-14 59 34
I think we may be safe in any of those scenarios, even the two where we finish 8-10 in the Big East. Scenario 4 obviously worries me, but I would maintain that winning 1 of the next 2 and avoiding a game with DePaul should be enough.
I didn't run any scenarios where we lost the next 3 or any where we won more than 2 because in those situations we should be out or safely in.
I'd be pretty concerned with scenario 4, but we'd probably be really close.
By the way, I think it is unlikely that we go 1-1 and get the 7 seed (scenario 2). I think the only way that could happen is a loss @ X, and win vs. Creighton, and then all of Creighton, SHU and X finish at 10-8. Possible, but requires X and SHU to win out, and SHU has to play @ Butler. We hold the tie breaker with SHU, X and Creighton - even with a loss against X and/or Creighton this week. PC owns the tie breaker over us if we're the only 2 that finish at 9-9.
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Pay more attention. Only chance would be if PC lost to Depaul on Tuesday (ends at 9-9), gets the 7 seed in the BE tourney, and loses to Depaul again. They still may get into Dayton at 9-9 there, but it'd be close with THREE losses to Depaul on the year.
Chances of that happening are close to 0%, IMO.
I Was just going to say..i'm not sure Providence gets in at 9-9 if they lose to DePaul again this week. That'd be 3 sub 200 losses..that's ugly.
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I'd be pretty concerned with scenario 4, but we'd probably be really close.
By the way, I think it is unlikely that we go 1-1 and get the 7 seed (scenario 2). I think the only way that could happen is a loss @ X, and win vs. Creighton, and then all of Creighton, SHU and X finish at 10-8. Possible, but requires X and SHU to win out, and SHU has to play @ Butler. We hold the tie breaker with SHU, X and Creighton - even with a loss against X and/or Creighton this week. PC owns the tie breaker over us if we're the only 2 that finish at 9-9.
Any 3 way tie with PC and SHU we lose. So a loss to X, a win vs. Creighton, and then a 3 way tie with PC, SHU and MU, we would get the 7 seed. Mini conference would be PC 3-1, SHU 2-2, MU 1-3.
We win any 2 way tiebreaker with X, CU, or SHU at 9-9 due to either a sweep or our win over Nova.
I think.
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Any 3 way tie with PC and SHU we lose. So a loss to X, a win vs. Creighton, and then a 3 way tie with PC, SHU and MU, we would get the 7 seed. Mini conference would be PC 3-1, SHU 2-2, MU 1-3.
Yep..thanks. Missed that scenario.
I think at this point with the way PC has been playing, they're going to get to 10 wins. But ya never know...could see them losing @ SJU on Saturday, I guess. It'll be kind of double edged sword then, because only way we could get up to a 3 seed is PC losing one of their last 2 games, but if they lose 1, and we lose 1, and SHU loses @ Butler, we need to hope either Creighton or X ends up at 9-9 as well, or we could fall to 7. Beyond the obvious of not wanting to fall to the 7, I wanted to avoid Depaul all together, but from your RPI wizard scenarios and when I've run them as well, I was surprised that simply playing Depaul didn't sink our RPI more.
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Yep..thanks. Missed that scenario.
I think at this point with the way PC has been playing, they're going to get to 10 wins. But ya never know...could see them losing @ SJU on Saturday, I guess. It'll be kind of double edged sword then, because only way we could get up to a 3 seed is PC losing one of their last 2 games, but if they lose 1, and we lose 1, and SHU loses @ Butler, we need to hope either Creighton or X ends up at 9-9 as well, or we could fall to 7. Beyond the obvious of not wanting to fall to the 7, I wanted to avoid Depaul all together, but from your RPI wizard scenarios and when I've run them as well, I was surprised that simply playing Depaul didn't sink our RPI more.
I think if we beat X on Wednesday, then we clinch a 6 at worst? That would drop them to 8-9 and they couldn't pass us in the standings or win a tiebreaker with us. Maybe a 4 or 5 way tie we could lose a tiebreaker?
From an RPI standpoint, it would be slightly better to win against CU and lose against X, if we are going to lose one. But to avoid the 7 seed, beating X would be more valuable. I can't see CU losing to SJU this week.
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I think if we beat X on Wednesday, then we clinch a 6 at worst? That would drop them to 8-9 and they couldn't pass us in the standings or win a tiebreaker with us. Maybe a 4 or 5 way tie we could lose a tiebreaker?
From an RPI standpoint, it would be slightly better to win against CU and lose against X, if we are going to lose one. But to avoid the 7 seed, beating X would be more valuable. I can't see CU losing to SJU this week.
Id love to be a lower seed then we have a good chance at playing a good team in the BET
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Id love to be a lower seed then we have a good chance at playing a good team in the BET
Being the 6 seed would be great. Being the 7 seed and getting stuck in a first round game against DePaul would be terrible.
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1st four out:
Georgia Tech - 16-13 (7-9)
Remaining Schedule: vs. PITT, @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, vs. Notre Dame
Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (77), RPI (96), Sagrin (81), BPI (92), SOR (57)
Record vs. top 50: 4-7
Record vs. top 100: 6-11
Wake Forest - 16-12 (7-9)
Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Miami, vs. Pitt, @ College of Charleston
Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (33), RPI (45), Sagrin (38), BPI (33), SOR (46)
Record vs. top 50: 1-9
Record vs top 100: 6-12
Rhode Island - 19-9 (11-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ St. Joes, vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (44), Sagrin (54), BPI (41), SOR (60)
Record vs. top 50: 2-3
Record vs. top 100: 4-7
Georgia - 17-12 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, @ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Tennessee
Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (56), Sagrin (50), BPI (65), SOR (52)
Record vs. top 50: 1-7
Record vs. top 100: 8-11
And Marquette as a comp:
Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
Record vs. top 50: 5-6
Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10
Other at-large hopefuls:
Illinois State 25-5 (17-1)
Remaining Schedule: MVC Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Wichita St., vs. New Mexico, Vs. Tulsa
Worst Losses: @ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs. San Francisco
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (45), RPI (33), Sagrin (52), BPI (57), SOR (39)
Record vs. top 50: 1-1 (Wichita - who they also lost to by 41)
Record vs. top 100: 2-3
Kansas State 17-12 (6-10)
Remaining Schedule: @ TCU, vs. Texas Tech, B12 Tourney
Best Wins: @ Baylor, vs. WVU, @ OK State
Worst Losses: @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Tennessee
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (37), RPI (68), Sagrin (44), BPI (42), SOR (51)
Record vs. top 50: 3-8
Record vs. top 100: 4-11
TCU 17-12 (6-10)
Remaining Schedule: vs. K State, @ Oklahoma
Best Wins: vs. Illinois State, vs. Iowa State, @ Kansas Sate
Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech, vs. Auburn, @ Iowa State
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (40), RPI (60), Sagrin (45), BPI (52), SOR (48)
Record vs. top 50: 2-10
Record vs. top 100: 5-12
Houston 20-8 (11-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ Cincy, vs. Eastern Carolina
Best Wins: vs. Rhode Island, vs. Vermont, vs. UCF
Worst Losses: @ LSU, vs. Harvard, vs. Memphis
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (38), RPI (54), Sagrin (46), BPI (35), SOR (58)
Record vs. top 50: 2-4
Record vs. top 100: 3-5
Again...Marquette as a comp:
Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
Record vs. top 50: 5-6
Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10
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One of ISU's best wins is at home vs. Tulsa and one of their worst losses was @ Tulsa?
What the heck happened to Tulsa??????
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Seeing that differential between Illinois State and Marquette in their RPI's really shows how poor the RPI is. In what world is Illinois State some 40 spots better than us when you look at their schedule?
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One of ISU's best wins is at home vs. Tulsa and one of their worst losses was @ Tulsa?
What the heck happened to Tulsa??????
That's how horrible their schedule is. Honestly, whoever doesn't win the MVC tourney doesn't deserve an at large. They've beaten NOBODY.
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That's how horrible their schedule is. Honestly, whoever doesn't win the MVC tourney doesn't deserve an at large. They've beaten NOBODY.
I'd be fine with Wichita State getting in. Other than ISU their three losses are to tournament teams (Louisville, Oklahoma State, Michigan State)
Illinois State probably doesn't deserve it unless they win the MVC tournament. They beat nobody in non-conference and have losses to San Francisco, Murray State and Tulsa.
The good news is I think WSU is clearly the best team in the MVC and since they are on the bubble they will be motivated as hell to go out and win that tournament.
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Seeing that differential between Illinois State and Marquette in their RPI's really shows how poor the RPI is. In what world is Illinois State some 40 spots better than us when you look at their schedule?
It's clear that our schedule is not even close to comparable to ISU's, but at the same time, they've only lost one game since Christmas. Regardless of what conference you play in, that's a pretty impressive feat. ISU has a weak schedule, sure, but they've also won the vast majority of the games they should have won. 25-5 is nothing to sneeze at.
That said, having seen them play a little bit, I think we, along with any other power 6 team, would probably walk all over ISU regardless of where the game was played.
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1st four out:
Georgia Tech - 16-13 (7-9)
Remaining Schedule: vs. PITT, @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, vs. Notre Dame
Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (77), RPI (96), Sagrin (81), BPI (92), SOR (57)
Record vs. top 50: 4-7
Record vs. top 100: 6-11
Wake Forest - 16-12 (7-9)
Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Miami, vs. Pitt, @ College of Charleston
Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (33), RPI (45), Sagrin (38), BPI (33), SOR (46)
Record vs. top 50: 1-9
Record vs top 100: 6-12
Rhode Island - 19-9 (11-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ St. Joes, vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (44), Sagrin (54), BPI (41), SOR (60)
Record vs. top 50: 2-3
Record vs. top 100: 4-7
Georgia - 17-12 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, @ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Tennessee
Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (56), Sagrin (50), BPI (65), SOR (52)
Record vs. top 50: 1-7
Record vs. top 100: 8-11
Other at-large hopefuls:
Illinois State 25-5 (17-1)
Remaining Schedule: MVC Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Wichita St., vs. New Mexico, Vs. Tulsa
Worst Losses: @ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs. San Francisco
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (45), RPI (33), Sagrin (52), BPI (57), SOR (39)
Record vs. top 50: 1-1 (Wichita - who they also lost to by 41)
Record vs. top 100: 2-3
Kansas State 17-12 (6-10)
Remaining Schedule: @ TCU, vs. Texas Tech, B12 Tourney
Best Wins: @ Baylor, vs. WVU, @ OK State
Worst Losses: @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Tennessee
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (37), RPI (68), Sagrin (44), BPI (42), SOR (51)
Record vs. top 50: 3-8
Record vs. top 100: 4-11
TCU 17-12 (6-10)
Remaining Schedule: vs. K State, @ Oklahoma
Best Wins: vs. Illinois State, vs. Iowa State, @ Kansas Sate
Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech, vs. Auburn, @ Iowa State
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (40), RPI (60), Sagrin (45), BPI (52), SOR (48)
Record vs. top 50: 2-10
Record vs. top 100: 5-12
Houston 20-8 (11-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ Cincy, vs. Eastern Carolina
Best Wins: vs. Rhode Island, vs. Vermont, vs. UCF
Worst Losses: @ LSU, vs. Harvard, vs. Memphis
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (38), RPI (54), Sagrin (46), BPI (35), SOR (58)
Record vs. top 50: 2-4
Record vs. top 100: 3-5
Again...Marquette as a comp:
Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
Record vs. top 50: 5-6
Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10
FWIW, I did a quick comparison on Bracket Matrix of who is bumping us in the 11 brackets that do not include us, to get a real sense of which of these teams might be viewed as the most likely competition for those last few spots. I didn't include teams that appeared in every bracket for purposes of this comparison.
Wichita State: 11
USC: 11
Seton Hall: 11
Providence: 10
Vanderbilt: 9
Cal: 9
Illinois State: 8
Wake Forest: 7
Syracuse: 6
Rhode Island: 6
Kansas State: 5
TCU: 2
Georgia: 2
Illinois: 1
Houston: 1
GT, G'Town, Clemson, Indiana: 0
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Things would get really messy, if Creighton lost their last two and St John's won their last two. I believe is still possible for a 6 team tie at 9-9. Not likely, but it is possible.
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I have never rooted harder for any teams in my life then I will be this week rooting for DePaul(god that makes me almost wanna vomit), and SJU vs. PC. I want that 3 seed in the worst way. Now watch, MU would get the needed help, and go gag one away AGAIN. >:(
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I have never rooted harder for any teams in my life then I will be this week rooting for DePaul(god that makes me almost wanna vomit), and SJU vs. PC. I want that 3 seed in the worst way. Now watch, MU would get the needed help, and go gag one away AGAIN. >:(
oh ye of little faith
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Only one bubble game tonight and it might be a stretch to call it that.
Miami @ Virginia Tech - Miami is a lock now. Virginia Tech is probably safe as well, but Lunardi has them a few spots ahead of Marquette in the "last four byes" category. So I'll include it.
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Only one bubble game tonight and it might be a stretch to call it that.
Miami @ Virginia Tech - Miami is a lock now. Virginia Tech is probably safe as well, but Lunardi has them a few spots ahead of Marquette in the "last four byes" category. So I'll include it.
Also have Troy @ UT Arlington. UT-A in all likelihood needs to win the Sun Belt but a loss tonight takes away 1 more somewhat interesting non P6 canididate.
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Only one bubble game tonight and it might be a stretch to call it that.
Miami @ Virginia Tech - Miami is a lock now. Virginia Tech is probably safe as well, but Lunardi has them a few spots ahead of Marquette in the "last four byes" category. So I'll include it.
Really nice win for Buzz and The Hokies.
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Only one bubble game tonight and it might be a stretch to call it that.
Miami @ Virginia Tech - Miami is a lock now. Virginia Tech is probably safe as well, but Lunardi has them a few spots ahead of Marquette in the "last four byes" category. So I'll include it.
Yeah, VTech was 95% before, 100% now. Don't think they'll last long without their best rebounder, though.
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http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/gallery/college-basketball-bracketology-bubble-teams-update-syracuse-wake-forest-indiana-illinois-marquette-022717
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ESPN Bubble Watch update:
Marquette [17-11 (8-8), RPI: 69, SOS: 67] Marquette was the latest victim of Providence's unrelenting push into the field, falling 73-69 on Saturday at the Dunkin' Donuts Center in Providence, R.I., which essentially left the Golden Eagles in the same place they've been for weeks, if not months: on the bubble. The RPI and nonconference strength of schedule (in the low 240s) is shaky, but wins over Creighton and Villanova (and three other top-50 victories) are more than a lot of bubble teams can boast. Marquette may get more yet: Next up is Wednesday's trip to Xavier, followed by a weekend home game against Creighton.
Fair.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
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http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/gallery/college-basketball-bracketology-bubble-teams-update-syracuse-wake-forest-indiana-illinois-marquette-022717
From Fox Sports Bubble Summary:
Had they just beaten the teams they were supposed to (Georgetown, St. John’s), the Golden Eagles wouldn’t be playing for their tournament lives right now. Instead, they need to win at least one of their final two games to feel good about making the Big Dance. Winning both obviously wouldn't hurt.
...so they think we only need 1/2.
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Tonight's bubble action:
Georgetown @ Seton Hall
Depaul @ Providence
Vandy @ Kentucky (looks like Vandy may have locked up a top 50 RPI...not sure we want them to win this)
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech
Fringe Bubble (long shots at best)
Indiana @ Purdue
Miami @ Akron
Ohio State @ Penn State
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From Fox Sports Bubble Summary:
Had they just beaten the teams they were supposed to (Georgetown, St. John’s), the Golden Eagles wouldn’t be playing for their tournament lives right now. Instead, they need to win at least one of their final two games to feel good about making the Big Dance. Winning both obviously wouldn't hurt.
...so they think we only need 1/2.
Honestly of all the losses I think those two are lower on our list of what ifs. Teams come out flat, it happens. Plus we aren't historically great at the garden so I expected that one. What we should've done is be better against the middle of the pack. Heck I'd take a loss to a team that's out if it meant a win over Providence or Seton hall right now.
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Honestly of all the losses I think those two are lower on our list of what ifs. Teams come out flat, it happens. Plus we aren't historically great at the garden so I expected that one. What we should've done is be better against the middle of the pack. Heck I'd take a loss to a team that's out if it meant a win over Providence or Seton hall right now.
The one that still kills me is the first Providence loss. Huge letdown after Nova, come out flat, still should have won if not for uncharacteristic hot 3 pt shooting from Providence.
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A positive thing we have going for us is that we don't really have a bad loss besides maybe pitt or providence, but both of those teams could make the tourney
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Tonight's bubble action:
Georgetown @ Seton Hall
Depaul @ Providence
Vandy @ Kentucky (looks like Vandy may have locked up a top 50 RPI...not sure we want them to win this)
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech
Fringe Bubble (long shots at best)
Indiana @ Purdue
Miami @ Akron
Ohio State @ Penn State
It looks like if Vandy loses the next 2 they will be projected at 51 in the RPI. Win 1 in the SEC tournament and they are probably top 50. Win 1 of their final 2 and they are easily top 50. I think we definitely want them to lose tonight. If they win they start to have a real strong bubble case.
It'd be VERY helpful for us if Georgetown beat Seton Hall. If so, they likely end up 8-10 with the final game at Butler. Then we'd have the 6 seed even if we lose our remaining two games.
Of course, I want 7 Big East bids too. But if Marquette gets a bid at the expense of SHU or PC....that's fine.
Pitt winning tonight would be doubly good. Pretty much would eliminate GT and helps our RPI. Not counting on it, though.
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A positive thing we have going for us is that we don't really have a bad loss besides maybe pitt or providence, but both of those teams could make the tourney
Pitt can't. They are pretty much done barring them reeling off a winning streak until the ACC finals.
PC is in good shape.
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A positive thing we have going for us is that we don't really have a bad loss besides maybe pitt or providence, but both of those teams could make the tourney
Pitt ain't making the tourney, and PC isn't a bad loss. Our worst loss is @ SJU, but if that's your worst loss you're doing OK.
Most of the power conference teams in contention around the bubble don't really have horrible losses. Wake, K State, TCU...those teams don't really have bad losses either. But we have better wins.
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It looks like if Vandy loses the next 2 they will be projected at 51 in the RPI. Win 1 in the SEC tournament and they are probably top 50. Win 1 of their final 2 and they are easily top 50. I think we definitely want them to lose tonight. If they win they start to have a real strong bubble case.
It'd be VERY helpful for us if Georgetown beat Seton Hall. If so, they likely end up 8-10 with the final game at Butler. Then we'd have the 6 seed even if we lose our remaining two games.
Of course, I want 7 Big East bids too. But if Marquette gets a bid at the expense of SHU or PC....that's fine.
Pitt winning tonight would be doubly good. Pretty much would eliminate GT and helps our RPI. Not counting on it, though.
Yah, at this point, I am rooting for what's best for MU. If it means 6 BE teams go instead of 7, so what. If all 7 BE teams look solid for bids going into Selection Sunday, that is going to add a little nervousness for me, assuming we're 9-9.
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After this mornings update, we are in 110/123 brackets on Bracket Matrix. 5th last team in.
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After this mornings update, we are in 110/123 brackets on Bracket Matrix. 5th last team in.
More commonly known as one of the last four byes.
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CBS has us in as a 11 playing a play in game against RI
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More commonly known as one of the last four byes.
I'm more interested in the fact that 89.4% of bracket projections have us in the field. For all the doom and gloom around here, if you would have asked us before the season if we all would have taken "projected in, avoid Dayton" with 2 games left.....almost everyone would have taken it.
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I know we all want to go 2-0 this week and then have success in the BET. But do you guys think we punch our ticket baring something truly crazy with a win at Xavier tomorrow? Road wins count for so very much.
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I know we all want to go 2-0 this week and then have success in the BET. But do you guys think we punch our ticket baring something truly crazy with a win at Xavier tomorrow? Road wins count for so very much.
Yah, I wouldn't use the words "punch our ticket", but I think we're in really good shape if we win tomorrow.
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I wish this guy was on the SC
http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/bracket-watch-projections-predictions-bracketology-ncaa-tournament-mandel-022817
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I'm more interested in the fact that 89.4% of bracket projections have us in the field. For all the doom and gloom around here, if you would have asked us before the season if we all would have taken "projected in, avoid Dayton" with 2 games left.....almost everyone would have taken it.
I think the issue is not so much where we stand now, but the fact we still have to win some games. We have two tough games and haven't been playing our best the last few weeks.
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I think the issue is not so much where we stand now, but the fact we still have to win some games. We have two tough games and haven't been playing our best the last few weeks.
I think that's fair. But I also think that before the season if I would have told everyone, we need to win one of our final 2 games to have a good shot at the tournament, people would have taken that.
Now, the team needs to go out and take care of business. But I think they will.
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I wish this guy was on the SC
http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/bracket-watch-projections-predictions-bracketology-ncaa-tournament-mandel-022817
If he is..can we bribe him for a 10 seed instead of that 9 and potential matchup with KU? :P
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I think the issue is not so much where we stand now, but the fact we still have to win some games. We have two tough games and haven't been playing our best the last few weeks.
In the past 10 days, Marquette destroyed Xavier and St. John's and shot 48% on the road in a tight loss to an NCAA Tournament team in PC. Seems to me their play is trending upward.
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If he is..can we bribe him for a 10 seed instead of that 9 and potential matchup with KU? :P
we can take KU
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we can take KU
I don't see us getting up to a 9 seed unless we win the next two, but if we did and are seeded against KU, I will have never rooted for a 16 over 1 harder. KU would be a disastrous match up.
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I don't see us getting up to a 9 seed unless we win the next two, but if we did and are seeded against KU, I will have never rooted for a 16 over 1 harder. KU would be a disastrous match up.
The only player that i think could kill us from KU would be josh jackson but their bigs are soft
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The only player that i think could kill us from KU would be josh jackson but their bigs are soft
Yeah...no. Mason and Graham would eat us alive and Lucas is a man.
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Yeah...no. Mason and Graham would eat us alive and Lucas is a man.
But if we have a hotting shooting day against them or even anyone all teams should be scared if we are hitting our shots
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Most likely Big East Scenarios
Win out- 5 seed
Beat X, lose to Creighton- 5 seed
Lose to X, beat Creighton- 6 seed
Lose Out- 7 seed
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Heck, that's why I have said, I will take an 11 or 12 any day, as long as it's not in Dayton. MU could beat a 5 seed(if a 12) Easily, and could beat a 6(if an 11). Then if seeding held, they'd get a 4(definitely winnable) or a 3(bring it on).
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We could beat KU. But they are gonna beat us 9/10 times on a neutral court.
Honestly, I don't give a crap what seed we get. I just want to get in. Avoiding Dayton would be ideal, but even last 4 in would be fine by me at this point.
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Most likely Big East Scenarios
Win out- 5 seed
Beat X, lose to Creighton- 5 seed
Lose to X, beat Creighton- 6 seed
Lose Out- 7 seed
I will take a PC loss tonight(or Saturday) and an MU win out, and take the 3 seed thank you very much.
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Most likely Big East Scenarios
Win out- 5 seed
Beat X, lose to Creighton- 5 seed
Lose to X, beat Creighton- 6 seed
Lose Out- 7 seed
Are these seeds for NCAA or BET
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Are these seeds for NCAA or BET
BET
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Heck, that's why I have said, I will take an 11 or 12 any day, as long as it's not in Dayton. MU could beat a 5 seed(if a 12) Easily, and could beat a 6(if an 11). Then if seeding held, they'd get a 4(definitely winnable) or a 3(bring it on).
Totally agree with you, i just want to get in this year. But going off your point if we are a 11 seed we could easily beat a 6 seed then play most likely a 3 seed which is winnable too, better chance at a run. Also if we beat a 6 seed we will have momentum going into the next game. But anyway lets focus on getting in first
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"Marquette has some good wins, but a lot of losses. The Golden Eagles didn't play a very good non-conference schedule and is paying for that a little bit now as well. Marquette lost a tough one at Providence that it looked like it had control of. They don't really need quality wins, but have nothing but quality opponents left."
Per Jerry Palm on cbs sports
He has us "on the fence"
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We could beat KU. But they are gonna beat us 9/10 times on a neutral court.
Honestly, I don't give a crap what seed we get. I just want to get in. Avoiding Dayton would be ideal, but even last 4 in would be fine by me at this point.
Same.
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We could beat KU. But they are gonna beat us 9/10 times on a neutral court.
Honestly, I don't give a crap what seed we get. I just want to get in. Avoiding Dayton would be ideal, but even last 4 in would be fine by me at this point.
What do you mean by avoid dayton? Like playing in dayton or the team?
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What do you mean by avoid dayton? Like playing in dayton or the team?
The First Four play-in games are played in Dayton.
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The First Four play-in games are played in Dayton.
Ohh. Definitely hope we can avoid that. But i mean lets focus on getting in first
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Ohh. Definitely hope we can avoid that. But i mean lets focus on getting in first
What we focus on doesn't matter, but honestly I'd be fine w Dayton this year. That said, I hope we can win 2 of the next 3 and I don't think we'll need to worry about having to play in Dayton.
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We could beat KU. But they are gonna beat us 9.5/10 times on a neutral court.
Honestly, I don't give a crap what seed we get. I just want to get in. Avoiding Dayton would be ideal, but even last 4 in would be fine by me at this point.
Exactly.
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We have proven two things this year 1) We can beat anybody! 2) We can lose to anybody!
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What we focus on doesn't matter, but honestly I'd be fine w Dayton this year. That said, I hope we can win 2 of the next 3 and I don't think we'll need to worry about having to play in Dayton.
Why the hell do you continue to have that JJJ at pg in every single post?? its getting annoying and old
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Are these seeds for NCAA or BET
NIT
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-tracker-college-basketball-march-madness-wild-cards/98472764/
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Why the hell do you continue to have that JJJ at pg in every single post?? its getting annoying and old
It's a signature bud
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Why the hell do you continue to have that JJJ at pg in every single post?? its getting annoying and old
It's his signature. Part of long tradition of posters using quotes of other posters saying ridiculous things to have them enshrined in the immortal halls of scoopdom.
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It's his signature. Part of long tradition of posters using quotes of other posters saying ridiculous things to have them enshrined in the immortal halls of scoopdom.
It is a nice passive aggressive way to say "I think I'm better than you."
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I know we all want to go 2-0 this week and then have success in the BET. But do you guys think we punch our ticket baring something truly crazy with a win at Xavier tomorrow? Road wins count for so very much.
Actually, based on RPI, not losing at home usually helps more that winning on the road. I don't have time to run numbers, but my guess is if we win one this week, Creighton would help us more than Xavier.
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The First Four play-in games are played in Dayton.
I actually want to play in Dayton. The team could use a game against a so-called equal team to get their feet wet. If they cannot beat another 11 or 12 seed they are not going to beat a 5 or 6th seed. I think getting a win under their belt would help them greatly in the next game.
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But road neutral record is obviously something the committee looks at closely.....and ours could use some help.
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Actually, based on RPI, not losing at home usually helps more that winning on the road. I don't have time to run numbers, but my guess is if we win one this week, Creighton would help us more than Xavier.
Yah I think our RPI is one point higher w a win vs CU as opposed to @ X.
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If they cannot beat another 11 or 12 seed they are not going to beat a 5 or 6th seed. I think getting a win under their belt would help them greatly in the next game.
Actually, I think the weight of evidence shows that MU is precisely the kind of team that would lose to an 11 or 12 but beat a 5 or 6.
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Yah I think our RPI is one point higher w a win vs CU as opposed to @ X.
I ran the numbers anyway. 62 RPI if we beat Creighton and lose to Xavier, 65 RPI if we beat Xavier and lose to Creighton.
As valuable as road wins are, not losing at home is more important in that system.
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I actually want to play in Dayton. The team could use a game against a so-called equal team to get their feet wet. If they cannot beat another 11 or 12 seed they are not going to beat a 5 or 6th seed. I think getting a win under their belt would help them greatly in the next game.
The problem with that is a loss in Dayton. We're we even in the tournament then? Scoopers would say yes, the rest of the bracket filling world says no.
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The problem with that is a loss in Dayton. We're we even in the tournament then? Scoopers would say yes, the rest of the bracket filling world says no.
Counts as an NCAA tournament appearance. You're right, not as many people who don't give a rip about CBB but may happen to fill out a bracket will take notice of Marquette's inclusion, but at the end of the day, that is no where near to top of my list of concerns. As a fan, I (we) have been glued to this team since Vandy in early November. We haven't seen a tourney game since Syracuse in 2013. Give me anything while us die hards continue to wait for brighter days ahead.
I don't get the notion that the play-in games aren't making the tourney. Sure, it'd suck getting bounced before Thursday, but it is a hell of a lot better than not being there at all. For me, it would make this roller coaster season an ultimate success in my eyes, and the ups and downs over the past few months that much more bittersweet. Nothing like March Madess IMO, and ya just never now. Wouldn't be surprised to Marquette win two games and find themselves in the round of 32 on Saturday/Sunday against a WV, a Duke, a Cinci, maybe a St. Mary's or even a Wisconsin. Potentially winnable games if the right guys get hot.
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Meanwhile, Georgetown is up 5 with 8 to go.
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The problem with that is a loss in Dayton. We're we even in the tournament then? Scoopers would say yes, the rest of the bracket filling world says no.
Exactly...the exact reason i want to hopefully avoid Dayton..should they lose there, they are home before the "regular" tourney even starts, and it's like they were never in it anyway.
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Gtown up 1 and SHU with 1.5 to go. FS1
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Gtown with just some brutal turnovers down the stretch here. 3 in last 5 or 6 possessions.
Seton Hal escapes. Just a terrible shot by Gtown. Hardly even got one off. Should have gone for quick 2 as SHU was still in the 1-1s. Brutal.
SHU pretty much wraps up their bid there.
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Georgetown two turnovers and then foul on three pointer.
Thompson keeping Pryor on bench because 4 fouls, geez put him back in, Georgetown not going anywhere.
And another turnover and Pryor not playing. Now Thompson puts him in with 18 seconds.
Last five Georgetown possessions, four turnovers. They had them, but boy those fumble turnovers killed them and last possesion, ugly.
Not playing Pryor?.....Thompson in big doo-doo.......
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Man that ending was ugly, G-town really choked
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F you Georgetown, you can go to hell! The only saving grace is the hall goes to Butler Saturday, you expect them to lose that. Now we just need to be HUGE DePaul fans tonight. Icky i know, but they can do something useful for MU once, can't they??
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Gtown with just some brutal turnovers down the stretch here. 3 in last 5 or 6 possessions.
Seton Hal escapes. Just a terrible shot by Gtown. Hardly even got one off. Should have gone for quick 2 as SHU was still in the 1-1s. Brutal.
SHU pretty much wraps up their bid there.
Yup
Side note, Delgado has to be POY for BE. Hope he gets it over Hart, well deserved.
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Yup
Side note, Delgado has to be POY for BE. Hope he gets it over Hart, well deserved.
POY to a kid on a team that went .500? Not happening and shouldn't happen.
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Yeah it's going to be Hart.....he is going to be one of the top guys for National player of the year so not sure how he isn't BE POY.
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Yeah it's going to be Hart.....he is going to be one of the top guys for National player of the year so not sure how he isn't BE POY.
Good point, spoke too soon, but kid having unreal season. Swanigan from Purdue might get lots of votes, so we'll see.
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In the past 10 days, Marquette destroyed Xavier and St. John's and shot 48% on the road in a tight loss to an NCAA Tournament team in PC. Seems to me their play is trending upward.
This sounds suspiciously positive. Many Scoopers can't abide by this!
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Good point, spoke too soon, but kid having unreal season. Swanigan from Purdue might get lots of votes, so we'll see.
Frank Mason too.
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Actually, I think the weight of evidence shows that MU is precisely the kind of team that would lose to an 11 or 12 but beat a 5 or 6.
That was my first thought too
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I ran the numbers anyway. 62 RPI if we beat Creighton and lose to Xavier, 65 RPI if we beat Xavier and lose to Creighton.
As valuable as road wins are, not losing at home is more important in that system.
That's up from last week. Ran the same numbers and our RPI was around 68. The bubble has been kind to us.
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Indiana loses, their faint chances of getting back into this thing are shot.
Akron loses to Miami OH. Another somewhat interesting bubble team that could have just maybe been interesting enough amongst all the carnage but pissed their chances away.
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The bubble has been kind to us.
This year's bubble is softer than a baby's backside.
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F you Georgetown, you can go to hell! The only saving grace is the hall goes to Butler Saturday, you expect them to lose that. Now we just need to be HUGE DePaul fans tonight. Icky i know, but they can do something useful for MU once, can't they??
Actually them going to Butler isn't a saving grace for us. They are in a no lose situation. If they lose no one will hold it against them. If they win they have another huge win on their resume. Seton Hall is in the tournament barring some crazy scenario where they end up in the 7th place game and lose to Depaul in the BET....and there are bunch of bid stealers.
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Akron loses to Miami OH. Another somewhat interesting bubble team that could have just maybe been interesting enough amongst all the carnage but pissed their chances away.
Wow. Akron was 16 point favorites at home. Added bonus is that their RPI will drop a hefty amount. Could be enough for us to move up. People ahead of us losing is another way to increase our RPI!
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Actually them going to Butler isn't a saving grace for us. They are in a no lose situation. If they lose no one will hold it against them. If they win they have another huge win on their resume. Seton Hall is in the tournament barring some crazy scenario where they end up in the 7th place game and lose to Depaul in the BET....and there are bunch of bid stealers.
I'm talking about seeding for the BET. It doesn't look like it's going to matter much though, because of course DePaul sucks and is getting blown out by Providence anyway. *sigh*
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I'm talking about seeding for the BET. It doesn't look like it's going to matter much though, because of course DePaul sucks and is getting blown out by Providence anyway. *sigh*
PC could still lose @ SJU and we win out and we'd could still get the 3. Not likely, but possible.
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Vandy up 25-6 early at Kentucky. This is an interesting game. First gut was to root for Kentucky, but the more I think about it, I don't know. Gonna be tough for Vandy to beat FL on Saturday, and to get an at larger they'd have 15 losses. I think this year will be the year a 15 loss team gets an at large, but just not sure there will be enough of them to include Vandy... but if they hold on AND beat Florida on sat, they definitely pass us.
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Vandy with the hot hand early in Lexington.
A win over UK should solidify their sub-50 RPI rating (keeping the shine on our win over Vandy).
Knowing that we're battling Vandy on the bubble (both on Lunardi's First Four In), should there be part of us that wants them to lose tonight?
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I'm talking about seeding for the BET. It doesn't look like it's going to matter much though, because of course DePaul sucks and is getting blown out by Providence anyway. *sigh*
Providence is likely to go 2-0, and if we're talking seeding - that's not a bad thing since they have every tiebreaker against us anyways.
If we're in a 2-way tie with Seton Hall, we have the edge.
If we're in a 3-way tie with Seton & Xavier, we would finish 1st out of the 3.
If we go 2-0 and end up in a tie with Providence, so be it. That means we went 2-0, and losing that tiebreaker simply means we are getting the 5 or 6 seed.
Providence losing to Depaul or St Johns likely only helps us in terms of our overall NCAA tournament bid. The odds of us passing them outright over these final 2 is pretty slim.
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Vandy up 25-6 early at Kentucky. This is an interesting game. First gut was to root for Kentucky, but the more I think about it, I don't know. Gonna be tough for Vandy to beat FL on Saturday, and to get an at larger they'd have 15 losses. I think this year will be the year a 15 loss team gets an at large, but just not sure there will be enough of them to include Vandy... but if they hold on AND beat Florida on sat, they definitely pass us.
I'm rooting for Vandy...1. I HATE UK and 2. anything to help MU's RPI/Resume at this point is welcomed. This definitely would. Now the key is, if we can get Georgia to cooperate and get their RPI into the top 50.
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I'm rooting for Vandy...1. I HATE UK and 2. anything to help MU's RPI/Resume at this point is welcomed. This definitely would. Now the key is, if we can get Georgia to cooperate and get their RPI into the top 50.
We want them to cooperate, but also need to remember we're directly in competition with them. We definitely want them to end conference play w 14 losses.
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We want them to cooperate, but also need to remember we're directly in competition with them. We definitely want them to end conference play w 14 losses.
It's all right in front of MU to take, MU wins both this week and they are lock city. Go out and take it, don't back door your way in.
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It's all right in front of MU to take, MU wins both this week and they are lock city. Go out and take it, don't back door your way in.
Agreed. But that ain't gonna stop me for hoping for other teams eliminate themselves from contention.
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Providence is likely to go 2-0, and if we're talking seeding - that's not a bad thing since they have every tiebreaker against us anyways.
If we're in a 2-way tie with Seton Hall, we have the edge.
If we're in a 3-way tie with Seton & Xavier, we would finish 1st out of the 3.
If we go 2-0 and end up in a tie with Providence, so be it. That means we went 2-0, and losing that tiebreaker simply means we are getting the 5 or 6 seed.
Providence losing to Depaul or St Johns likely only helps us in terms of our overall NCAA tournament bid. The odds of us passing them outright over these final 2 is pretty slim.
Actually winning out would mean the 4 seed If tied with providence, because it would mean we swept CU and they'd drop below us.
Win out and have PC loses @ SJU and we get the 3 seed.
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Actually winning out would mean the 4 seed If tied with providence, because it would mean we swept CU and they'd drop below us.
Win out and have PC loses @ SJU and we get the 3 seed.
I should have known better then to pin my hopes on DePaul tonight. Would have rather they beat PC so I could sleep easier this week. Oh well, I guess SJU can be kinda sorta tough at home sometimes.
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Ga Tech up 4 on Pitt. 8 to go. ESPNU.
PC up 12 on depaul. 9 to go. FS1.
Kentucky has cut the Vandy lead to 10.
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Ga Tech gonna hold on to beat Pitt, unfortunately.
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Ga Tech gonna hold on to beat Pitt, unfortunately.
Not a HUGE result. Tech should still be well behind us. Would have been a nice RPI boost though
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Not a HUGE result. Tech should still be well behind us. Would have been a nice RPI boost though
Ya, would have been some breathing room tho.
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Ga Tech gonna hold on to beat Pitt, unfortunately.
Here's the weird thing about worrying about Georgia Tech. If you think they are in, then why would we be out. All statistical measure have us in front of them. Even if we lose out, our statistical numbers will be better than theirs.
Their best case scenario is .500 in league play, with an RPI of around 90. Had they lost tonight, their RPI would be over 100 and considered a bad loss for teams.
That's how bad the bubble is this year.
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This comeback by Kentucky has been... terrifying. Should just about polish off Vandy's chances, though.
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Kentucky turns it on at the end. Look like they are going to win.
Gives Vandy 14 loses.....I don't think any team has gotten an at large bid with 15 losses.
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This comeback by Kentucky has been... terrifying. Should just about polish off Vandy's chances, though.
I don't think so. Vandy is right on the fringe. A win over Florida might do it for them or at least have them right in it.
Good result for us. Rpi doesn't suffer and a win would have been huge for them
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Kentucky turns it on at the end. Look like they are going to win.
Gives Vandy 14 loses.....I don't think any team has gotten an at large bid with 15 losses.
That is correct. 14 losses is the most.
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That is correct. 14 losses is the most.
That will almost certainly be broken this year unless the committee decides to let teams like Illinois State, Houston, Rhode Island, Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington get at larges when they haven't beaten anybody all year.
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That is correct. 14 losses is the most.
Well that may get broken this year. A team with 15 losses may make the tournament.
One example is that either Syracuse or Georgia Tech will have 15 losses.
Some seem to think they are both in. If that is true a 15-loss team will make the tournament.
Wake has to beat Louisville or VPI (on the road) to avoid being at 15 losses. I think they lose both, which would put 2 of the 3 bubblicious ACC teams at 15 losses. Hard to believe with this bubble that one of them doesn't get in.
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Another weird team (not on the bubble). Oklahoma St.
With only Kansas left on their schedule, they will likely finish 19-11 overall, 9-9 in the Big12 and 3-9 against the top 50...but ridiculous RPI/KP numbers that don't appear to match their performance. Strange.
Right now bracketology has them as a 6-seed.
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Ideal situation for us was Vandy winning 1 and losing 1. If not possible, would rather have them lose 2 than win 2. So tonight was a good result. Kentucky and Florida are such good opponents that even if they lose both, they are still a top 50 RPI team. Trick will be the SEC tournament.
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Anyone worrying about Providence, remember SJU is 5-3 at home in conference play with their only losses to Villanova, Creighton at full strength, and Xavier at full strength (that was the game Sumner was injured). Johnnies will probably be a slim favorite going into Saturday.
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Anyone worrying about Providence, remember SJU is 5-3 at home in conference play with their only losses to Villanova, Creighton at full strength, and Xavier at full strength (that was the game Sumner was injured). Johnnies will probably be a slim favorite going into Saturday.
Horrible match-up from a tourney standpoint for Providence. Very difficult game on the road against a team the Committee expects you to handle. A win keeps them EDIT: punches their ticket afloat, an L EDIT: has them walking on egg shells.
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Horrible match-up from a tourney standpoint for Providence. Very difficult game on the road against a team the Committee expects you to handle. A win keeps them afloat, an L eviscerates their tourney hopes.
If st johns wins thats a good thing for us
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Horrible match-up from a tourney standpoint for Providence. Very difficult game on the road against a team the Committee expects you to handle. A win keeps them afloat, an L eviscerates their tourney hopes.
Ehhh. PC is a stone cold lock w a win. Very much still alive w a L.
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Ehhh. PC is a stone cold lock w a win. Very much still alive w a L.
Johnnies fan for 1 game
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Horrible match-up from a tourney standpoint for Providence. Very difficult game on the road against a team the Committee expects you to handle. A win keeps them afloat, an L eviscerates their tourney hopes.
Providence punched their ticket last night. 9 Big East wins will be enough. Losing to St John's isn't at all disastrous.
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If st johns wins thats a good thing for us
It's all about that 3 seed for the BE tourney. I know the prevailing theme is conference standings mean nothing but in leagues that do the double round robin it does I believe past committees have said as much.
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Providence punched their ticket last night. 9 Big East wins will be enough. Losing to St John's isn't at all disastrous.
Perhaps, but if other bubble teams go on mini-runs and PC loses to SJU they could very well find themselves on the outside looking in. Let's not forget that it would be their second loss to SJU this year.
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It's all about that 3 seed for the BE tourney. I know the prevailing theme is conference standings mean nothing but in leagues that do the double round robin it does I believe past committees have said as much.
Well the 3 seed means we win the next 2, so I'm all for that! Assuming we go 9-9, I don't think the 4-6 seeds matter much. I would love another shot at PC in the first round at MSG, however.
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Here is one thing that nobody has said. What happens in Hartford in the AAC Conference Tourney if SMU or Cincinnati doesn't win. There goes one spot at-large pool.. What happens if Dayton or VCU don't win the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney. There goes another spot at-large spot.
Wichita State in the MVC and Middle Tennessee State in Conf. USA. Those could be at-large schools. If all that happens there goes FOUR bids at-large bids.
Things will be much better if MU goes 10-8 in the Big East.
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Here is one thing that nobody has said. What happens in Hartford in the AAC Conference Tourney if SMU or Cincinnati doesn't win. There goes one spot at-large pool.. What happens if Dayton or VCU don't win the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney. There goes another spot at-large spot.
Wichita State in the MVC and Middle Tennessee State in Conf. USA. Those could be at-large schools. If all that happens there goes FOUR bids at-large bids.
Things will be much better if MU goes 10-8 in the Big East.
Oh for sure. 1 or 2 of those will happen.
Could add Illinois State in the MVC as well. Houston in the AAC. Rhode Island in the A10. Middle Tennessee would have a shot at an at large, but probably needs to win their tournament to feel safe. Not to mention teams that are eliminated from at larges in the P6 like Texas Tech, Texas or Oklahoma in the B12, Georgetown or SJU in the BE, Indiana, or Iowa in the B10, pretty much anyone not named Oregon, Arizona, or UCLA in P12. MU fans and other teams around the bubble should definitely be rooting for the top dogs to win their tournaments.
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Here is one thing that nobody has said. What happens in Hartford in the AAC Conference Tourney if SMU or Cincinnati doesn't win. There goes one spot at-large pool.. What happens if Dayton or VCU don't win the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney. There goes another spot at-large spot.
Wichita State in the MVC and Middle Tennessee State in Conf. USA. Those could be at-large schools. If all that happens there goes FOUR bids at-large bids.
Things will be much better if MU goes 10-8 in the Big East.
That is definitely the biggest risk--if there are any bid stealers from those conferences you mentioned or some team below us on the bubble has a major run and wins their major conference championship. As each happens, that is one less spot for wiggle room. Which is definitely why two would be much more comfortable, although I still believe that one gets it done, given the way every other bubble team has struggled the same as us.
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Tonight's bubble action:
Auburn @ Georgia
Michigan @ Northwestern (both teams likely safe, but we should root for Michigan here)
Rhode Island @ St. Joes
Michigan State @ Illinois
Louisville @ Wake Forest
K State @ TCU
Marquette @ Xavier
Washington State @ USC
Fringe Games (long shots at best for at-larges at this point):
Tennessee @ LSU
Ole Miss @ Alabama
Texas @ Texas Tech
Nevada @ San Jose State
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Tonight's bubble action:
Auburn @ Georgia
Michigan @ Northwestern (both teams likely safe, but we should root for Michigan here)
Rhode Island @ St. Joes
Michigan State @ Illinois
Louisville @ Wake Forest
K State @ TCU
Marquette @ Xavier
Washington State @ USC
Fringe Games (long shots at best for at-larges at this point):
Tennessee @ LSU
Ole Miss @ Alabama
Texas @ Texas Tech
Nevada @ San Jose State
I would say biggest ones for us tonight are Michigan State and Louisville. If Illinois and Wake Forest pick up home losses, they are probably done. In WF's case, chance to pick up a huge win and give their resume the one thing it's missing -- a signature win.
USC losing would put them in real trouble. Michigan win would be good for RPI, since they are safe anyways. I'm torn on whether I want Georgia to win or lose. A loss would eliminate them, but a win and they have a real chance at top 50 RPI
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I would say biggest ones for us tonight are Michigan State and Louisville. If Illinois and Wake Forest pick up home losses, they are probably done. In WF's case, chance to pick up a huge win and give their resume the one thing it's missing -- a signature win.
USC losing would put them in real trouble. Michigan win would be good for RPI, since they are safe anyways. I'm torn on whether I want Georgia to win or lose. A loss would eliminate them, but a win and they have a real chance at top 50 RPI
Yep. Probably be fine with Georgia winning this game. Even with Georgia win and Marquette loss tonight, I still think we're ahead of Georgia in the pecking order.
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Compiled a general list of bubble teams, not all-inclusive. I leave out Wake, because if they don't win against Louisville they are likely done and right now would be out. By my count four of the teams on this list will not make it. The rest get in. The AVG is the average of RPI and KP.
| Team | Conf. | Season | RPI | KP | Avg |
| Illinois State | 17-1 | 25-5 | 34 | 45 | 40 |
| Houston | 11-5 | 20-8 | 52 | 39 | 46 |
| Rhode Island | 11-5 | 19-9 | 44 | 53 | 49 |
| Cal | 10-6 | 19-9 | 51 | 47 | 49 |
| Marquette | 8-8 | 17-7 | 72 | 32 | 52 |
| USC | 8-8 | 21-8 | 39 | 67 | 53 |
| Seton Hall | 9-8 | 19-10 | 49 | 58 | 54 |
| Nevada | 12-4 | 23-6 | 43 | 65 | 54 |
| Providence | 9-8 | 19-11 | 55 | 56 | 56 |
| Syracuse | 9-8 | 17-13 | 79 | 51 | 65 |
| Ole Miss | 9-7 | 18-11 | 71 | 77 | 74 |
| Georgia Tech | 8-9 | 17-13 | 91 | 76 | 84 |
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Compiled a general list of bubble teams, not all-inclusive. I leave out Wake, because if they don't win against Louisville they are likely done and right now would be out. By my count four of the teams on this list will not make it. The rest get in. The AVG is the average of RPI and KP.
| Team | Conf. | Season | RPI | KP | Avg |
| Michigan | 9-7 | 19-10 | 47 | 27 | 37 |
| Illinois State | 17-1 | 25-5 | 34 | 45 | 40 |
| Houston | 11-5 | 20-8 | 52 | 39 | 46 |
| Rhode Island | 11-5 | 19-9 | 44 | 53 | 49 |
| Marquette | 8-8 | 17-7 | 72 | 32 | 52 |
| USC | 8-8 | 21-8 | 39 | 67 | 53 |
| Seton Hall | 9-8 | 19-10 | 49 | 58 | 54 |
| Nevada | 12-4 | 23-6 | 43 | 65 | 54 |
| Providence | 9-8 | 19-11 | 55 | 56 | 56 |
| Syracuse | 9-8 | 17-13 | 79 | 51 | 65 |
| Ole Miss | 9-7 | 18-11 | 71 | 77 | 74 |
| Georgia Tech | 8-9 | 17-13 | 91 | 76 | 84 |
To me, seems pretty obvious you leave Houston, Nevada, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech out. Rhode Island and Illinois State last two teams in at the moment. USC, Cuse and Marquette in the next grouping.
Cal should probably be somewhere in that grouping as well.
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Marquette still safe as the 5th team in (first bye) on today's Bracketmatrix update.
http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/)
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To me, seems pretty obvious you leave Houston, Nevada, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech out. Rhode Island and Illinois State last two teams in at the moment. USC, Cuse and Marquette in the next grouping.
Cal should probably be somewhere in that grouping as well.
Kansas State, Wake Forest and TCU, Illinois should all be on there as well
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Marquette still safe as the 5th team in (first bye) on today's Bracketmatrix update.
http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/)
In the field in 112/124 (90.3%) brackets
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To me, seems pretty obvious you leave Houston, Nevada, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech out. Rhode Island and Illinois State last two teams in at the moment. USC, Cuse and Marquette in the next grouping.
Cal should probably be somewhere in that grouping as well.
For the purposes here I included Cal as safely in. I had 28 teams safely in these were the next 12.
I exclude Kansas State and TCU since they have to win out to just make it to 2 games under .500. Right now they would be in the next four and really don't think they can make it in...not impossible but difficult. Similar for Wake and Illinois. They would be well out at this point and need to do work to be considered.
That's why we really need to win 1-more. If not we end up in the category with those 2-games under .500 group.
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Sports Illustrated is updating their Bubble Watch every day from here on out. There's more about MU and the Big East in today's post but didn't want to pull a Heisy and post all of it. Still, here's the narrative for tonight's game:
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch
"These teams are on the bubble, but they’re in better shape than both Kansas State and TCU. Marquette owns wins over Villanova and Creighton, while Xavier has three top-50 wins and strong marks in both RPI (27) and on kenpom.com (39). It’s more likely than not that both of these teams hear their names called on Selection Sunday, regardless of what happens in Cincinnati on Wednesday. The winner, however, will brush right up against lock territory."
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Sports Illustrated is updating their Bubble Watch every day from here on out. There's more about MU and the Big East in today's post but didn't want to pull a Heisy and post all of it. Still, here's the narrative for tonight's game:
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch
"These teams are on the bubble, but they’re in better shape than both Kansas State and TCU. Marquette owns wins over Villanova and Creighton, while Xavier has three top-50 wins and strong marks in both RPI (27) and on kenpom.com (39). It’s more likely than not that both of these teams hear their names called on Selection Sunday, regardless of what happens in Cincinnati on Wednesday. The winner, however, will brush right up against lock territory."
This is a HUGE game
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For the purposes here I included Cal as safely in. I had 28 teams safely in these were the next 12.
Why is Cal safely in? They are currently listed as Last Four In per bracketmatrix.
Can't just look at Ws and Ls. Gotta look at who those Ws and Ls are against. Cal's best win is against USC (RPI 38). Their second best win is Princeton!
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Why is Cal safely in? They are currently listed as Last Four In per bracketmatrix.
Can't just look at Ws and Ls. Gotta look at who those Ws and Ls are against. Cal's best win is against USC (RPI 38). Their second best win is Princeton!
I should have included them. I should have left Michigan off (a lock) and had Cal on the list (swapped the two now). Like I said, not a perfect list. The key things is we should be rooting for Houston and Rhode Island to lose and to not see any unexpected winners in the A10 or AAC tournaments.
My thought was that it would be unlikely for the committee to skip over both Cal and Utah to let USC in. They also have two very winnable road games to finish off the season, and figured if they win at least 1 of 2. I think if they do that, at least 4 PAC12 teams are in and they are likely a lock, barring an embarrassing defeat in the conference tournament.
If they lose both, they are likely out.
I'd also love to see USC lose one of their remaining games. Either would be a bad loss and would make it easier for the committee to say, only 3 PAC12 teams deserve to be in.
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Sports Illustrated is updating their Bubble Watch every day from here on out. There's more about MU and the Big East in today's post but didn't want to pull a Heisy and post all of it. Still, here's the narrative for tonight's game:
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch
"These teams are on the bubble, but they’re in better shape than both Kansas State and TCU. Marquette owns wins over Villanova and Creighton, while Xavier has three top-50 wins and strong marks in both RPI (27) and on kenpom.com (39). It’s more likely than not that both of these teams hear their names called on Selection Sunday, regardless of what happens in Cincinnati on Wednesday. The winner, however, will brush right up against lock territory."
I agree with SI here.
I have scouted out my spot on Kauai to watch tonight's game - 4 p.m. time here. Me, the missus, my daughter and her man will be turning some sleeping little bar into Marquette central!!!
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I agree with SI here.
I have scouted out my spot on Kauai to watch tonight's game - 4 p.m. time here. Me, the missus, my daughter and her man will be turning some sleeping little bar into Marquette central!!!
After the big win, I'll be living through you vicariously while you celebrate.
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I agree with SI here.
I have scouted out my spot on Kauai to watch tonight's game - 4 p.m. time here. Me, the missus, my daughter and her man will be turning some sleeping little bar into Marquette central!!!
Yes definitely make sure you all watch the game. We lost the last game because you did not watch it because you were traveling. We need to reverse that karma. Thank You.
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Here is one thing that nobody has said. What happens in Hartford in the AAC Conference Tourney if SMU or Cincinnati doesn't win. There goes one spot at-large pool.. What happens if Dayton or VCU don't win the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney. There goes another spot at-large spot.
Wichita State in the MVC and Middle Tennessee State in Conf. USA. Those could be at-large schools. If all that happens there goes FOUR bids at-large bids.
Things will be much better if MU goes 10-8 in the Big East.
Izzaklee
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Yes definitely make sure you all watch the game. We lost the last game because you did not watch it because you were traveling. We need to reverse that karma. Thank You.
I take full blame. And tonight I'll take full credit!
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Georgia sucks
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Georgia sucks
Perhaps I am missing context, but they won
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Georgia sqeaks it out..move into the top 50...for now.
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Perhaps I am missing context, but they won
They shouldn't have won. Gave that game away. Auburn missed their shot to win. Game MU loses (situaitionally) this year.
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Perhaps I am missing context, but they won
Yeah, didn't we want that? TAMU?
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Yeah, didn't we want that? TAMU?
Yah. I posted it before they got lucky and won. It was a good result for us.
Doesn't change the fact that Georgia is not a very good basketball team.
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Seriously happy for Northwestern.
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Seriously happy for Northwestern.
I sort of am. Just want it to be a one time thing though. We compete with them for recruits.
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I sort of am. Just want it to be a one time thing though. We compete with them for recruits.
No we don't. I don't remember any kid we were both after.
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I sort of am. Just want it to be a one time thing though. We compete with them for recruits.
I can't think of or name a single recruit in recent memory that was discerning between MU and Northwestern. I just don't see it...
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Bad bubble night for us. Illinois and WF both win. WF win is especially big
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We're dancing boys.
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Bad bubble night for us. Illinois and WF both win. WF win is especially big
Illinois should be a complete non factor in the bubble conversation.
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Wake Forest beat Louisville.
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Xavier now in last 4 in per Lunardi. Yikes. Loss @DePaul on Saturday and they're toast barring a deep BE tourney run. I think they smoke the Blue Demons, however.
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Xavier now in last 4 in per Lunardi. Yikes. Loss @DePaul on Saturday and they're toast barring a deep BE tourney run. I think they smoke the Blue Demons, however.
I agree. Blueitt goes for 35.
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We're dancing boys.
I'm not there quite yet. Lose the next two, some bid stealers could F it up for us.
But huge win. We are in great position.
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Illinois currently has a below .500 conference record in a down big ten
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Xavier now in last 4 in per Lunardi. Yikes. Loss @DePaul on Saturday and they're toast barring a deep BE tourney run. I think they smoke the Blue Demons, however.
Even then, looks like they would be the "7th" BE team in right? I know their computer numbers are pretty decent, but yikes, losing 6 of 7 to finish conference play, with their best win @ depleted creighton? Looking at them closely makes me feel pretty good that our status is close to lock.
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Lunardi has MU as an 11 with a bye against St. Mary's morning.
Yes please. Although that UCLA matchup in round 2 less enticing.
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Lunardi has MU as an 11 with a bye against St. Mary's morning.
Yes please. Although that UCLA matchup in round 2 less enticing.
That UCLA game would be hella fun. First to 150 wins.
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Lunardi has MU as an 11 with a bye against St. Mary's morning.
Yes please. Although that UCLA matchup in round 2 less enticing.
Win creighton and move up to the 10 seed.
Lose creighton and play in Dayton.
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I'm going to join the group that is happy for Northwestern. I'd love to see them get into the tournament, and the win last night was cool to see.
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NBC has Marquette as a #9 playing #8 Northwestern in the first round in Salt Lake. Winner likely plays #1 Gonzaga.
I'd take that.
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NBC has Marquette as a #9 playing #8 Northwestern in the first round in Salt Lake. Winner likely plays #1 Gonzaga.
I'd take that.
OH YES!
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NBC has Marquette as a #9 playing #8 Northwestern in the first round in Salt Lake. Winner likely plays #1 Gonzaga.
I'd take that.
That'd be absolutely brutal for me. I could sure give a hell of a scoop scouting report though.
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NBC has Marquette as a #9 playing #8 Northwestern in the first round in Salt Lake. Winner likely plays #1 Gonzaga.
I'd take that.
Everyone in the country would want NW to win
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Tonight's bubble action:
Houston @ Cinci (Huge game for Houston. If they don't win, I think their at large hopes are dead)
Florida Int. @ Middle Tennessee (Fl Int is awful, so MTSU should win easily, but if not, this would be a dagger)
Cal @ Utah (Go Utah!)
UT Arlington @ Louisiana Monroe (UT Arlington isn't getting an at large, but they're mildly interesting)
That is about it for tonight.
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Still last four in in Palm's bracket...after a road win against a top 30 RPI team. Cool, Jerry, Cool.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
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Still last four in in Palm's bracket...after a road win against a top 30 RPI team. Cool, Jerry, Cool.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
I disregarded that bracket as soon as I saw he had Illinois in there.
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#9 seed against MSU in USA Today bracket. Date with UNC in second round.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/03/02/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-bubble/98626374/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/03/02/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-bubble/98626374/)
Interesting that Palm continues to go against the grain here. More interesting that I continue to be bothered by it.
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I'm not happy about Northwestern mostly because of the outsized coverage it'll get since half the sports media are J school grads from there(other half are Cuse grads). Yeah it's a big deal but no bigger than if Rutgers actually made it at some point in time this century.
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Not everyone.
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I can't think of or name a single recruit in recent memory that was discerning between MU and Northwestern. I just don't see it...
Gabe Levin who went with us. We offered Aaron Falzone ,who went with them . Jordan Nwora had us and NU in his pared down list before he blew up and went to Louisville. Etc.
Lot of recruits will do their unofficial sat NU and MU in consecutive days . Etc.
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Sacar Anim.
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Gabe Levin who went with us. We offered Aaron Falzone ,who went with them . Jordan Nwora had us and NU in his pared down list before he blew up and went to Louisville. Etc.
Lot of recruits will do their unofficial sat NU and MU in consecutive days . Etc.
Bottom line, if we lose a recruit to NW, I have zero issue with it.
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Lot of recruits will do their unofficial sat NU and MU in consecutive days . Etc.
I did this! Spring Break, 2006.
I don't remember much, but my tour at NU was a huge crowd of like 10 families. At MU it was me and one other girl (plus parents). The personal touch was part of what sold me on Marquette.
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Win creighton and move up to the 10 seed.
Lose creighton and play in Dayton.
That's not how the bubble works
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That's not how the bubble works
Can You provide your most up to date bubble analysis. Thanks.
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Thursday's Bracket Matrix update: http://bracketmatrix.com/
Marquette is in every bracket released today, and moves back ahead of Providence and Seton Hall as the last 10 seed. High seed is a 7.
Xavier is starting to get dropped, and will probably fall below us in a few days as the results of last night's game gets priced in.
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Can You provide your most up to date bubble analysis. Thanks.
I'm working on something analyzing the bubble should we have a bunch of stolen bids. I should have it done at some point this afternoon.
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I'm working on something analyzing the bubble should we have a bunch of stolen bids. I should have it done at some point this afternoon.
You sir have done the work of a thousand Rowsey's to put together this bubble watch. Keep up the strong work!
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Everyone in the country would want NW to win
Good.
We'd get a ton of pub after we kick their purple arses.
Methinks this simply was arranged this way by this particular analyst to create a Wojo-Collins matchup, however. The committee doesn't usually arrange stuff like that.
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Methinks this simply was arranged this way by this particular analyst to create a Wojo-Collins matchup, however. The committee doesn't usually arrange stuff like that.
I think they consider it more than they admit. There have been quite a number of "coaching relationship" matchups in the first round. Two that come quickly to mind are TC/Ralph Willard in '03 and TC/Tom Izzo in '07.
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Good.
We'd get a ton of pub after we kick their purple arses.
Methinks this simply was arranged this way by this particular analyst to create a Wojo-Collins matchup, however. The committee doesn't usually arrange stuff like that.
Joey gets props for accuracy of field not match-ups; might as well have fun with the latter.
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Everyone in the country would want NW to win
Who cares.
We'd unnatural carnal knowledgeing smash northwestern.
Please give me that
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Who cares.
We'd unnatural carnal knowledgeing smash northwestern.
Please give me that
I agree.
I also think Northwestern fans are saying the same thing about the prospects of playing us.
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I apologize for the long post here, but I am going to do a exercise to see what the bubble looks like in a nightmare scenario where bids are stolen left and right.
Favorites for the AQ (32 Teams):
Villanova - Big East
Kansas - B12
UNC - ACC
Oregon - P12
Kentucky - SEC
Purdue - Big Ten
Cincinnati - American
Dayton - A10
Wichita State - MVC
Middle Tennesee - CUSA
UNC Wilmington - Colonial
Nevada - MWC
Texas Arlington - Sun Belt
Monmouth - Metro Atlantic
Vermont - American East
Princeton - Ivy
Valpo - Horizon
Akron - MAC
Belmont - Ohio Valley
E. Tennessee State - Southern
Bucknell - Patriot
Winthrop - Big South
CSU Bakersfield - WAC
Florida Gulf Coast - A Sun
South Dakota - Summit
North Dakota - Big Sky
New Orleans - Southland
Texas Southern - SWAC
North Carolina Centeral - Mideastern
UC Irvine - Big West
Mount St. Mary's - Northeast
I have bolded the conferences that I believe are the most likely to have bid stealers - American, A10, Conference USA and the MVC. Now let's select four teams that don't have a chance for an at large to win those tournaments and steal some bids.
UCONN - American
Richmond - A10
Louisiana Tech - CUSA
Northern Iowa - MVC
I have initialized the conferences that have a team that the committee may consider if they win out until their conference championship and lose - (UNC Wilmington - Colonial; Nevada - MWC; and Texas Arlington - Sun Belt). These teams are long shots at best, but may receive some at large consideration. Now let's assume a different team wins each of those conference tournaments, putting UNC Wilmington, Nevada and Texas Arlington into the at large pool.
College of Charleston - Colonial
San Diego State - MWC
Arkansas State - Sun Belt
Now let's assume that 1/3 of the P6 conference tournaments are won by a team that wouldn't get an at large. Let's go with:
Tennessee - SEC
Indiana - Big 10
So that is a total of 9 potential bids stolen (3 of which from conferences that are EXTREMELY UNLIKELY to receive 2 bids). This is a worst case scenario that is not going to happen. I see 4 or 5 as the absolute max.
Now let's go through the 36 at large bids and see how many teams are truly a lock:
Gonzaga
Louisville
Baylor
Kentucky
UCLA
Arizona
Butler
Florida
Florida State
Duke
West Virginia
Purdue
Virginia
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Minnesota
SMU
Creighton
Wisconsin
St. Mary's
Iowa State
Maryland
OK State
South Carolina
Miami
Dayton
Virginia Tech
Northwestern
That is 28 teams. 28 locks + 32 auto bids leaves 8 spots left on the bubble in this nightmare scenario for the bubble dwellers. Here are the teams that are in contention for those spots ranked in current order on bracket matrix:
1. Michigan
2. VCU
3. Arkansas
4. Michigan state
5. Wichita State
6. Xavier
7. USC
8. Marquette
9. Seton Hall
10. Providence
11. Middle Tennessee
12. Syracuse
13. California
14. Illinois State
15. Rhode Island
16. Vandy
17. Wake Forest
18. Illinois
19. K State
20. Houston
21. TCU
22. Georgia Tech
23. Clemson
Others hoping to be considered:
UNC Wilmington
Nevada
Texas Arlington
Utah
Texas Tech
Ohio State
Alabama
Ole Miss
BYU
Conclusion:
Even if the world turns upside down and nearly everything that can go wrong for bubble teams does go wrong, and Marquette finishes 0-2, they're still right there for a berth in the First Four. There are only a few teams listed behind Marquette that I could see the committee putting in before MU (Providence, maybe Middle Tennessee, Syracuse maybe?). After that...I just can't see it. I also think the committee is going to have a hard time selecting USC and Xavier in front of Marquette at this point, and they are currently seeded 1 slot ahead and 3 slots ahead, on Bracketmatrix.
So while it is theoretically possible for Marquette to not receive a bid, it would take a crazy set of circumstances, and even then, they still look to be above the cut line, if only just barely. A win on Saturday would certainly erase any possible scenario.
That said, I am sticking with what I said last night. This team is dancing. Book it.
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I agree.
I also think Northwestern fans are saying the same thing about the prospects of playing us.
Thats because MU and NU are almost the exact same team. We have a very similar makeup in skill set and personel.
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I agree.
I also think Northwestern fans are saying the same thing about the prospects of playing us.
They definitely could be. But that'd be foolish.
Unless you have a clear edge(in this case abusing size and length vs us) the last team you want to see is a team that can bomb from 3.
I also like lunardis st Mary's matchup. Let Londale get his.
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Good.
We'd get a ton of pub after we kick their purple arses.
Methinks this simply was arranged this way by this particular analyst to create a Wojo-Collins matchup, however. The committee doesn't usually arrange stuff like that.
I most certainly think that the committee creates intriguing matchups if possible. They may not publicize it but they would be stupid not to. It gives analysts and talking heads more to go on and more and more hype for the tournament. Which in turn brings more eyes and ears to the tv. Just my two cents.
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Marquette - 18-11 (9-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, @ Xavier
Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (30), RPI (58), Sagrin (30), BPI (29), SOR (47)
Record vs. top 50: 6-6
Record vs. top 100: 9-10
Lunardi's Last Four in:
Xavier - 18-12 (8-9)
Remaining Schedule: @ Depaul, BE Tourney
Best Wins: @ Creighton, vs, Wake, vs, Seton Hall
Worst Losses: @ Colorado, vs. Marquette, @ Marquette
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (48), RPI (35), Sagrin (34), BPI (40), SOR (37)
Record vs. top 50: 3-8
Record vs. top 100: 8-11
Cal - 19-9 (10-6)
Remaining Schedule: @Utah, @Colorado, P12 Tournament
Best Wins: @USC, cs. Princeton, vs, Stanford
Worst Losses: vs. San Diego State, @ Stanford, vs. Seton Hall
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (46), RPI (52), Sagrin (44), BPI (46), SOR (63)
Record vs. top 50: 1-7
Record vs. top 100: 4-8
USC - 22-8 (9-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs.Wash, P12 Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs.UCLA, vs. SMU, vs. BYE
Worst 3 losses: @Arizona State, @Utah, vs. Cal
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (65), RPI (39), Sagrin (57), BPI (61), SOR (41)
Record vs. top 50: 2-5
Record vs top 100: 5-7
Wake Forest - 17-12 (8-9)
Remaining Schedule: @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Louisville, vs. Miami, vs. Pitt
Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (31), RPI (40), Sagrin (35), BPI (30), SOR (36)
Record vs. top 50: 2-9
Record vs top 100: 7-12
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Yea, our record vs the top 50 is huge at this point. That plus our KenPom ranking. Just out of curiosity, can anyone estimate what that would be with a loss vs Creighton?
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Marquette - 18-11 (9-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, @ Xavier
Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (30), RPI (58), Sagrin (30), BPI (29), SOR (47)
Record vs. top 50: 6-6
Record vs. top 100: 9-10
Lunardi's First Four Out:
Vandy - 16-14 (9-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs.Florida, SEC Tourney
Best 3 wins: @ Florida, vs. South Carolina, vs. Iowa State
Worst 3 losses: @Alabama, vs. Tennesse, vs. Bucknell
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (40), RPI (49), Sagrin (50), BPI (50), SOR (64)
Record vs. top 50: 4-7
Record vs. top 100: 9-13
Georgia Tech - 17-13 (8-9)
Remaining Schedule: @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, @ VCU
Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (76), RPI (94), Sagrin (67), BPI (89), SOR (55)
Record vs. top 50: 4-7
Record vs. top 100: 6-11
Rhode Island - 20-9 (12-5)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (49), RPI (44), Sagrin (52), BPI (37), SOR (57)
Record vs. top 50: 2-3
Record vs. top 100: 4-7
Kansas State 18-12 (7-10)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, B12 Tourney
Best Wins: @ Baylor, vs. WVU, @ OK State
Worst Losses: @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Tennessee
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (35), RPI (59), Sagrin (41), BPI (42), SOR (48)
Record vs. top 50: 3-8
Record vs. top 100: 5-11
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Yea, our record vs the top 50 is huge at this point. That plus our KenPom ranking. Just out of curiosity, can anyone estimate what that would be with a loss vs Creighton?
62 is the current estimate with a loss on Saturday.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi (http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi)
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.
.
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Iowa State
Maryland
OK State
South Carolina
Miami
Dayton
Virginia Tech
Northwestern
That is 28 teams. 28 locks + 32 auto bids leaves 8 spots left on the bubble in this nightmare scenario for the bubble dwellers. Here are the teams that are in contention for those spots ranked in current order on bracket matrix:
1. Michigan
2. VCU
3. Arkansas
4. Michigan state
5. Wichita State
6. Xavier
7. Northwestern
8. USC
9. Marquette
10. Seton Hall
11. Providence
12. Middle Tennessee
.
.
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You have NW as a lock and a bubble team...other than that, great stuff.
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62 is the current estimate with a loss on Saturday.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi (http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi)
And with 2 straight losses to Creighton (1 in NYC) we project to an RPI of 65. I think we're safe, guys.
The thing is, we might hover right around the bubble if we lose. But the distance between us and the teams currently "out" is pretty substantial.
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You have NW as a lock and a bubble team...other than that, great stuff.
Thanks for the catch. Edited. Aaaaandd, what'dya know, that slides up back to #8, the last team in the field, even with all those bids stolen. 8-)
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Yea, our record vs the top 50 is huge at this point.
Also worth noting that is with Georgia at 51. They could end up inside the top 50, perhaps at the expense of Vandy or Seton Hall, or perhaps not.
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Marquette - 18-11 (9-8)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, @ Xavier
Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (30), RPI (58), Sagrin (30), BPI (29), SOR (47)
Record vs. top 50: 6-6
Record vs. top 100: 9-10
Next Four Out:
Georgia - 18-12 (9-8)
Remaining Schedule:@ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Ole Miss
Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (51), Sagrin (51), BPI (65), SOR (51)
Record vs. top 50: 1-7
Record vs. top 100: 9-11
Illinois 18-12 (8-9)
Remaining Schedule: @Rutgers, B10 Tourney
Best Wins: vs.VCU, vs. Michigan State, @Northwestern
Worst Losses: vs. Penn State, @ Penn State, @ Indiana
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (66), RPI (56), Sagrin (64), BPI (62), SOR (52)
Record vs. top 50: 5-8
Record vs. top 100: 11-12
Houston 20-8 (11-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ Cincy, vs. Eastern Carolina, AAC Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Rhode Island, vs. Vermont, vs. UCF
Worst Losses: @ LSU, vs. Harvard, vs. Memphis
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (39), RPI (53), Sagrin (46), BPI (34), SOR (61)
Record vs. top 50: 2-4
Record vs. top 100: 3-5
Clemson 15-14 (5-12)
Remaining Schedule: vs. BC, ACC Tourney
Best Wins: @ South Carolina, vs, UNC Wilmington, @ Wake Forest
Worst Losses: vs. Oklahoma, @ Georgia Tech, vs. Syracuse
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (37), RPI (61), Sagrin (42), BPI (36), SOR (54)
Record vs. top 50: 4-11
Record vs. top 100: 9-13
Others to keep an eye on:
Illinois State 25-5 (17-1)
Remaining Schedule: MVC Tourney
Best Wins: vs. Wichita St., vs. New Mexico, Vs. Tulsa
Worst Losses: @ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs. San Francisco
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (44), RPI (32), Sagrin (54), BPI (57), SOR (38)
Record vs. top 50: 1-1 (Wichita - who they also lost to by 41)
Record vs. top 100: 2-3
TCU 17-13 (6-11)
Remaining Schedule: @ Oklahoma
Best Wins: vs. Illinois State, vs. Iowa State, @ Kansas Sate
Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech, vs. Auburn, @ Iowa State
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (43), RPI (68), Sagrin (47), BPI (53), SOR (56)
Record vs. top 50: 2-10
Record vs. top 100: 4-12
Syracuse 17-13 (9-8)
Remaining Schedule: @ Georgia Tech
Best Wins: vs. Florida State, vs. Duke, vs. Virginia
Worst Losses: @ Boston College, vs. St. Johns, vs. UCONN
Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (79), Sagrin (40), BPI (33), SOR (53)
Record vs. top 50: 6-7
Record vs. top 100: 8-10
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My sister is a Freshman at Illinois St. would be a fun matchup if they met in the tournament for somehow.
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In other news, the 14-4 Liberty Fightin' John Dawson's go down to the 8-10 Radford Highlanders in the Big South tournament.
Was Dawson not able to get a red shirt? Played 4 minutes for Marquette his sophomore year. Listed as a senior.
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In other news, the 14-4 Liberty Fightin' John Dawson's go down to the 8-10 Radford Highlanders in the Big South tournament.
Was Dawson not able to get a red shirt? Played 4 minutes for Marquette his sophomore year. Listed as a senior.
Saw the last minute or two. Announcers referred to Dawson as a "redshirt senior" two or three times.
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In other news, the 14-4 Liberty Fightin' John Dawson's go down to the 8-10 Radford Highlanders in the Big South tournament.
Was Dawson not able to get a red shirt? Played 4 minutes for Marquette his sophomore year. Listed as a senior.
The NCAA ruled against him. I think the appeal might still be pending? If not, his career is done.
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The NCAA ruled against him. I think the appeal might still be pending? If not, his career is done.
That is what I thought, but seems like such a drag for the NCAA to not give the kid a waiver over 4 minutes.
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In other news, the 14-4 Liberty Fightin' John Dawson's go down to the 8-10 Radford Highlanders in the Big South tournament.
Was Dawson not able to get a red shirt? Played 4 minutes for Marquette his sophomore year. Listed as a senior.
Wow, UNC-A lost the first game. 2 games, 2 of the top 3 seeds eliminated. Winthrop is a 1 seed playing the tournament at home...talk about a bracket opening up....
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That is what I thought, but seems like such a drag for the NCAA to not give the kid a waiver over 4 minutes.
Sandy had 19 this year. Is that significant? I understand the NCAA's point of view. If you say 4 is OK, but 19 isn't, where do you draw that line?
Better idea. Don't transfer mid-season. He has no one to blame but himself for blowing an entire year of eligibility on four minutes. Stick around and you might get to play more.
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Sandy had 19 this year. Is that significant? I understand the NCAA's point of view. If you say 4 is OK, but 19 isn't, where do you draw that line?
Better idea. Don't transfer mid-season. He has no one to blame but himself for blowing an entire year of eligibility on four minutes. Stick around and you might get to play more.
Touche.
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Sandy had 19 this year. Is that significant? I understand the NCAA's point of view. If you say 4 is OK, but 19 isn't, where do you draw that line?
Better idea. Don't transfer mid-season. He has no one to blame but himself for blowing an entire year of eligibility on four minutes. Stick around and you might get to play more.
Agree. Mid-season transfers just don't make sense, and it's a slippery slope if you start granting exemptions based on number of minutes played. Maybe if it's a family emergency to get closer to home, but that clearly wasn't the case with Dawson.
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Wow, UNC-A lost the first game. 2 games, 2 of the top 3 seeds eliminated. Winthrop is a 1 seed playing the tournament at home...talk about a bracket opening up....
I watch some at work. Player for Campbell had 51 points in beating UNCA!
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Houston gets smoked by Cinci. They're toast.
Middle Tennessee neck and neck with FIU w 10 to go.
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Okay JJJJJ, do I need to cheer for Wisconsin in their game against Iowa? That would be sooo painful.
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Okay JJJJJ, do I need to cheer for Wisconsin in their game against Iowa? That would be sooo painful.
Meh. Doesn't hurt, but it doesn't make much difference one way or the other. A win for Wisco may bump our RPI a tiny bit. Iowa isn't getting an at large.
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Meh. Doesn't hurt, but it doesn't make much difference one way or the other. A win for Wisco may bump our RPI a tiny bit. Iowa isn't getting an at large.
That's what I wanted clarification on. Thanks. Go Hawkeyes!
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Can You provide your most up to date bubble analysis. Thanks.
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=53736.0
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http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=53736.0
Thanks
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Middle Tennessee escapes with a 3 point home win against an awful FIU team.
At this point I fully expect MTSU to get an at large if they win their final conference game but lose in the CUSA tourney, but man, I don't know if they should.
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What am I missing? We get a Top 50 road win and Lunardi only has us as last four bye? That doesn't seem to be much of a reward.
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What am I missing? We get a Top 50 road win and Lunardi only has us as last four bye? That doesn't seem to be much of a reward.
Isn't the thought with Lunardi that his teams are usually right, but seeds are usually off? Personally, I think we are a high 10 or low 9 on the strength of our top 50 wins. I still hate to say lock, but think we are in a good spot.
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Middle Tennessee escapes with a 3 point home win against an awful FIU team.
At this point I fully expect MTSU to get an at large if they win their final conference game but lose in the CUSA tourney, but man, I don't know if they should.
I'm not sure they will get an at large. Wins over Ole Miss and Vanderbilt who will not make it. Are they hanging their hat on UNCW and Belmont.
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I didnt watch the top 16 show from a few weeks back what did they say?
Did they make specific references to the top 50 wins? And to not ising the rpi as much? Those two topics seem to be brought up alot. Its interesting beacause i have always been amazed by how much the commitee has basically deferred to the RPI. Which is a big reason i have concerns, we seem to be good everywhere but rpi.
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I didnt watch the top 16 show from a few weeks back what did they say?
Did they make specific references to the top 50 wins? And to not ising the rpi as much? Those two topics seem to be brought up alot. Its interesting beacause i have always been amazed by how much the commitee has basically deferred to the RPI. Which is a big reason i have concerns, we seem to be good everywhere but rpi.
I didn't see it, but remember no Big Ten teams included. Lack of Top 50 wins was a big reason. There's been a few articles about the going away from the RPI. There was a summit of sorts with people who developed other type of rankings (Pomeroy, BPI, Glockner).
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At that point Villanova was 1 and Butler 16. They did not have Wisconsin in the top 16 and the commentators found that hard to believe. Since then Wisconsin has lost 4 or 5 games. The committee certainly had sound insight when it came to Wisconsin. They were not a top 4 seed when they were leading the Big 10, so I wonder were the committee would put them now.
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At that point Villanova was 1 and Butler 16. They did not have Wisconsin in the top 16 and the commentators found that hard to believe. Since then Wisconsin has lost 4 or 5 games. The committee certainly had sound insight when it came to Wisconsin. They were not a top 4 seed when they were leading the Big 10, so I wonder were the committee would put them now.
Did they give a reason? Like say lack of top 50 wins cuz we are putting an emphasis on this?
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At that point Villanova was 1 and Butler 16. They did not have Wisconsin in the top 16 and the commentators found that hard to believe. Since then Wisconsin has lost 4 or 5 games. The committee certainly had sound insight when it came to Wisconsin. They were not a top 4 seed when they were leading the Big 10, so I wonder were the committee would put them now.
8 vs. 9 game against Marquette.
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I could see Wisconsin easily being in the 8/9 game. I can see MU also being there, if we beat Creighton. However, I think the committee tries not to match you against a team you already played in the first round and tries hard not to have it happen in the second round.
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What am I missing? We get a Top 50 road win and Lunardi only has us as last four bye? That doesn't seem to be much of a reward.
People overestimate how much a team can move up or down on the bubble. That's why our position is so solid. Even if we lose to Creighton and Wake Forest wins at Virginia Tech, they won't move ahead of us on the bubble.
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I didnt watch the top 16 show from a few weeks back what did they say?
Did they make specific references to the top 50 wins? And to not ising the rpi as much? Those two topics seem to be brought up alot. Its interesting beacause i have always been amazed by how much the commitee has basically deferred to the RPI. Which is a big reason i have concerns, we seem to be good everywhere but rpi.
The general message was the RPI was a lot less important than it used to be, and top 50 wins are more important than they used to be.
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Cal getting absolutely smoked by Utah.
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The general message was the RPI was a lot less important than it used to be, and top 50 wins are more important than they used to be.
If they're going away from RPI which they should - are they using top 50 kp wins, top 50 sag wins, top 50 bpi wins, or top 50 rpi? I think it's off to use top 50 rpi wins if they're going away from using. Rpi is much more flawed than any of the other metrics used. The rpi is our only downfall at this point so here's to hoping it really is on its way out.
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If they're going away from RPI which they should - are they using top 50 kp wins, top 50 sag wins, top 50 bpi wins, or top 50 rpi? I think it's off to use top 50 rpi wins if they're going away from using. Rpi is much more flawed than any of the other metrics used. The rpi is our only downfall at this point so here's to hoping it really is on its way out.
The articles that I read was that the rpi could be used less starting next year and replaced with other metrics. I think the rpi is still an important tool for them this year.
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Vandy, GA and SH now with RPIs of 47, 49 and 50, respectively. Precariously close to no longer being top 50 wins but also on the bubble with MU.
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Vandy, GA and SH now with RPIs of 47, 49 and 50, respectively. Precariously close to no longer being top 50 wins but also on the bubble with MU.
Ga RPI is 51. If you include then in top 50, MU has 7 top 50 wins, not 6.
And regarding what metric used for top 50/100 wins, my understanding is they're still going to use RPI for that, but less as a raw metric. Meaning no silly cut offs if a teams RPI is in the 70s but body of work and other metrics are strong. I think RPI will continue to be used to some degree, but they also realize that there are stronger metrics out there at this point.
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Vandy, GA and SH now with RPIs of 47, 49 and 50, respectively. Precariously close to no longer being top 50 wins but also on the bubble with MU.
Careful where you get your RPI numbers. ESPN is consistently wrong. Georgia is not quite top 50 yet.
Also RPI doesn't go up or down simply because you win or lose. That helps but its much more complicated than that. With Vanderbilt playing Florida and Seton Hall playing at Butler, there is little to no chance that their RPI goes down if they lose those games. At the end of the regular season, they will be top 50 wins.
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ESPN Bubble Watch:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
Marquette [18-11 (9-8), RPI: 59, SOS: 68] Look out, world: Marquette can score the basketball. This has been the case all season, but this week's 95-points-in-71-trips power outage at the Cintas Center might have been the best the Golden Eagles have played on that side of the floor all season, and that's saying something. The problem, of course, is defense, but if Marquette could guard folks it wouldn't be anywhere close to the bubble, and how much fun would that be? (Not that much, we say. Marquette fans might disagree.) Anyway, the Golden Eagles have a real chance of beating Creighton at home Saturday, and what's already looking like a bracket-worthy team could get an even more significant boost in advance of the Big East tourney.
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Meh. Doesn't hurt, but it doesn't make much difference one way or the other. A win for Wisco may bump our RPI a tiny bit. Iowa isn't getting an at large.
I find it interesting that Iowa could end up 10-8 in the BIG? but not get an At-large, that would be a lock in the BEast. Further evidence of a down year in the BIG?.
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I find it interesting that Iowa could end up 10-8 in the BIG? but not get an At-large, that would be a lock in the BEast. Further evidence of a down year in the BIG?.
Yes, I think on average the Big Ten's highest seed is a 5.
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I find it interesting that Iowa could end up 10-8 in the BIG? but not get an At-large, that would be a lock in the BEast. Further evidence of a down year in the BIG?.
Look at Iowa's non-conference:
Wins:
Iowa State (RPI 27)
Northern Iowa (RPI 152)
North Dakota (RPI 178)
Kennesaw State (RPI 258)
Savannah State (RPI 280)
UT-Rio Grande Valley (RPI 322)
Stetson (RPI 328)
Delaware State (RPI 330)
Losses:
Virginia (RPI 16)
@Notre Dame (RPI 23)
Seton Hall (RPI 49)
Memphis (RPI 117)
Nebraska Omaha (RPI 140)
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Bracket Matrix Update:
Average seed: 10.18
Projected In: 104/109 Brackets
Highest/Lowest: 7 seed/12 seed
8th last team in (last four byes)
All 5 brackets that have us out have us as the first team out. Two of them are solely computer generated.
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The writing is on the wall, gentlemen.
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Caught this AP writer's article this morning in our local paper:
https://www.usnews.com/news/sports/articles/2017-03-03/big-east-eyeing-7-ncaa-tournament-bids
Big East Eyeing 7 NCAA Tournament Bids
The Big East is in good NCAA Tournament shape at the top, with Villanova, Butler and Creighton.
By JOHN MARSHALL, AP Basketball Writer
The Big East has been strong at the top, led by defending national champion Villanova.
The second-ranked Wildcats (23-3, 14-3 Big East) won the regular-season conference title and will be the No. 1 seed in next week's Big East Tournament regardless of what happens Saturday against Georgetown.
No. 13 Butler (23-6, 12-5) is in good shape for the NCAA Tournament and Creighton (23-7, 10-7) should be as well despite dropping out of the AP Top 25 this week.
The other four Big East teams on the NCAA bubble may still have some to work to do — or at least avoid a bad loss.
Seton Hall (19-10, 9-8) avoided a misstep in one of those can't-lose games by beating Georgetown. The Pirates can help their resume by beating No. 13 Butler, but still should be in good NCAA shape barring a quick exit in the conference tournament.
Providence (19-11, 9-8) had a similar win by beating DePaul this week, but can't afford losing to St. John's on Saturday or an early conference tournament exit. The Friars already lost to St. John's once this season, one of several bad losses already on their resume.
Marquette (18-11, 9-8) has proven it can score and has a win over then-No. 1 Villanova on its resume. The Golden Eagles have trouble on the defensive end, though, which has put them on the bubble.
Marquette beat fellow bubble team Xavier on Tuesday and has a big potential booster on Saturday, facing Creighton in Milwaukee.
Xavier (18-12, 8-9) was once among the elite teams in the conference. Then point guard Edmond Sumner went down with a torn ACL, sending the Musketeers into a tail spin.
Xavier also had to play without Trevon Blueitt in two games and had its losing streak stretched to six with the loss to Marquette. The Musketeers end the season against DePaul, a game they can't afford to lose.
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ON THE RISE
Northwestern. The Wildcats' long wait to finally reach the NCAA Tournament may be over. Northwestern (21-9, 10-6 Big Ten) had a rough go two weeks ago with losses to Illinois and Indiana, but followed that up with a win over fellow bubbler Michigan. Still, when you've never been to the big dance, the wait is going to be nerve-wracking.
Nevada. The Wolf Pack (24-6, 13-4 MWC) have bounced back from two losses in three games with a five-game winning streak. They face a big game against Colorado State and may have to hope the Mountain West is a two-bid conference if they don't win the MWC Tournament.
Michigan State. Even with a loss to Illinois this week, the Spartans (18-12, 9-7 Big Ten) appear to be in decent shape in a season that looked lost early. A loss to Maryland on Saturday and an early exit in the conference tournament could change that.
Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons (17-12, 8-9 ACC) were in dire need of a marquee win and got one on Wednesday, knocking off No. 8 Louisville 88-81. A win over Virginia Tech on Saturday could help even more.
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FADING HOPES
California. The Bears (19-10, 10-7 Pac-12) were already teetering on the bubble and a 30-point loss to Utah Thursday night is not going to push the needle forward. Cal may need to beat Colorado and a deep Pac-12 Tournament run to reach the dance.
VCU. The Rams (23-7, 13-4 A10) appeared to be a lock, then last week happened. Losses to Rhode Island and Dayton put a lot more importance on Saturday's home game against George Mason; they still appear to be on the right side of the bubble thanks to a strong RPI, but can't afford to lose this one.
Houston. The Cougars (20-9, 11-6 AAC) failed on a chance for a resume-boosting win this week, losing 65-47 to No. 18 Cincinnati. Now Houston likely has to avoid losing to East Carolina and make a deep run in the conference tournament to have a shot.
Tennessee. The Vols (15-15, 7-9 SEC) may need to win the SEC tournament after losing six of their last eight games, including LSU on Wednesday.
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Illinois up 2 at a Rutgers inside 4 minutes. A loss who eliminate them from at large consideration.
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Illinois up 2 at a Rutgers inside 4 minutes. A loss who eliminate them from at large consideration.
Illinois loses. They're toast.
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Illinois loses. They're toast.
Great finish. Clear that bubble.
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Illinois loses. They're toast.
Yup, thats about the equivalent of a X loss to Depaul.
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Vanderbilt needs to lose today too. Get them off that bubble too.
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OSU loses to It's Indiana.
Florida vs Vandy. Do we want Florida to knock Vandy off the bubble or Vandy to win bc we have the road win against them?
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Yup, thats about the equivalent of a X loss to Depaul.
Except X has a far better resume than Illinois
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OSU loses to It's Indiana.
Florida vs Vandy. Do we want Florida to knock Vandy off the bubble or Vandy to win bc we have the road win against them?
We want Vandy. They aren't going to be the first team ever to get a bid with 15 losses, and if they do, they aren't getting in over Marquette.
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We want Vandy. They aren't going to be the first team ever to get a bid with 15 losses, and if they do, they aren't getting in over Marquette.
This
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Tennessee beats Alabama. Any faint chance they had (they had none) for an at large is gone.
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Let's play 20 more minutes of Warrior hoops and we can lock this thread up!
Come on boys, close it out!
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Cal down 3 to Colo instead a minute. A loss and they're looking very very NITish.
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Cal, Michigan State and Georgia all lose.
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Vandy up 2 inside a minute.
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Vanderbilt upsets Florida. Be interesting to see if they get in with 15 losses.
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It would be a crime if Vandy didn't dance.
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It would be a crime if Vandy didn't dance.
Not really. It'd actually set a new precedent.
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Change is good. They have done enough to dance. And their power rating keeps getting better and better for Marquette.
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Change is good. They have done enough to dance. And their power rating keeps getting better and better for Marquette.
They're not gonna get in unless they do some damage in SEC tourney. They're gonna take an Illinois State, or a Middle Tennessee over a 15 loss SEC team.
That said, I wouldn't be completely shocked if they get to Dayton w an SEC tourney win or two.
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They're not gonna get in unless they do some damage in SEC tourney. They're gonna take an Illinois State, or a Middle Tennessee over a 15 loss SEC team.
That said, I wouldn't be completely shocked if they get to Dayton w an SEC tourney win or two.
Illinois State has 2 Top 100 wins. And if New Mexico falters down the stretch - just one.
That would be a new standard for an at-large team.
Lunardi has them as a 12 seed - only IN because they are currently listed as the 1-seed in the MVC. If they lose to Wichita State, they're out.
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Illinois State has 2 Top 100 wins. And if New Mexico falters down the stretch - just one.
That would be a new standard for an at-large team.
Lunardi has them as a 12 seed - only IN because they are currently listed as the 1-seed in the MVC. If they lose to Wichita State, they're out.
I'm well aware of their resume. They're going to take them over a 15 loss SEC team. If Vandy makes it, it won't be at he expense of Illinois State.
PS - this is coming from someone who has been vocal about ISU not having the resume for an at large. But everyone else keeps losing. At some point you have to let that team in over the other options.
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Illinois loses. They're toast.
Isn't losing to Rutgers, like losing twice in one day. ;D I agree toast is on fire.
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Jerry Palm still has Marquette in his last four here on CBSSN bit. And this was considering today's win. Dude is nuts.
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Palm puts a lot of emphasis on RPI, so he is justified in his reasoning. MU's RPI is gonna be one of lowest for an at large team this year. I don't like it because it hurts my team, but I respect that he's got his methods.
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Palm puts a lot of emphasis on RPI, so he is justified in his reasoning. MU's RPI is gonna be one of lowest for an at large team this year. I don't like it because it hurts my team, but I respect that he's got his methods.
He's not justified when his reasoning no longer makes sense.
I remember when Dusty Baker hated walks because they clogged the bases.
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Palm puts a lot of emphasis on RPI, so he is justified in his reasoning. MU's RPI is gonna be one of lowest for an at large team this year. I don't like it because it hurts my team, but I respect that he's got his methods.
Aside from his methods making him one of the least accurate bracket predictors. Sure, he sticks to his guns despite being constantly wrong, but he's still constantly wrong.
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Jerry Palm still has Marquette in his last four here on CBSSN bit. And this was considering today's win. Dude is nuts.
Uh, Lunardi had same at his 5pm update. Last in, close to byes.
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Uh, Lunardi had same at his 5pm update. Last in, close to byes.
No. He had us with one of the last four byes.
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No. He had us with one of the last four byes.
As an 11 seed. Very close to in from him.
Beat SH and probably move to 10/9. BET now a seed tournament.
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Either way - the point is, Lunardi didn't move us a single spot after the win.
Which means, in his eyes, we would probably need to beat Villanova to jump into a single digit seed.
Still think we're a lock to get out of Dayton, but the fact that he didn't move us a single spot after that win is a little disappointing. Could certainly fall back 1 spot with a L vs. Seton Hall and a bid stealer emerges.
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Wake up 4 on VT. 1 minute left.
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URI gets 5 second violation inbounding ball with 10 seconds left, tie gane. Davidson guy gets stuffed at the rim after splitting 4 defenders.
Going to OT.
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URI pulls it out in OT. Davidsons 3 attempt to tie it comes up a bit short.
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Wake up 4 on VT. 1 minute left.
Buzz leaving another turd on our doorstep....
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This is one of those nightmare bubble days that really make you happy MU took it into their own hands and won. Feels damn good.
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This is one of those nightmare bubble days that really make you happy MU took it into their own hands and won. Feels damn good.
I agree with this analysis.
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This is one of those nightmare bubble days that really make you happy MU took it into their own hands and won. Feels damn good.
Great point. Looking far less 'soft' than just a week ago. Teams like Illinois State and Xavier should be very nervous. Glad we took care of business. Six BEast teams dance. Xavier still has work to do.
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Great point. Looking far less 'soft' than just a week ago. Teams like Illinois State and Xavier should be very nervous. Glad we took care of business. Six BEast teams dance. Xavier still has work to do.
Disagree....i think as long as X doesn't lose in their opening round they are the 7th Big East team in
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Disagree....i think as long as X doesn't lose in their opening round they are the 7th Big East team in
No disagreement from me. What I meant was that they're fine unless they screw up against DePaul. Probably Dayton, but fine.
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Less optomistic about Xavier. They might have good RPI numbers but committee has reasons. Losing streak broke only by two DePaul win? Top talent out. And 7 BE Teams doesn't sit well. Certainly bubble bubble might bubble up a spot.
I'm sure others have their opinions. I hope X gets in and BE wins a bunch.
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We need to take care of Seton Hall to be sure. Fox showed us as an 8 before the game was over. That seems so ridiculously high.
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Almost every bubble team is winning ove the course of tge week. I was really rooting against providence n seton hall today. Really concerned that this might turn into a nightmare for marquette. Especially if what the nbc guy said holds water with the commitee
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Almost every bubble team is winning ove the course of tge week. I was really rooting against providence n seton hall today. Really concerned that this might turn into a nightmare for marquette. Especially if what the nbc guy said holds water with the commitee
Dude. We're fine
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We all think the bubble is really soft this year, but I heard two bracketologists or analysts say it's actually a normal bubble.
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We all think the bubble is really soft this year, but I heard two bracketologists or analysts say it's actually a normal bubble.
Those bracketologists should be fired.
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This is one of those nightmare bubble days that really make you happy MU took it into their own hands and won. Feels damn good.
Not too bad of a day actually.
TCU/Georgia/Geogia Tech/UT Alrington all lost any hope of an at-large
Illinois/Cal are now on the wrong side of the bubble
Michigan State lost which probably puts them below us
St. Francis/Vandy/Fresno/Houston Baptist/IUPUI all won boosting our RPI
UNC-W/Wichita State/Gonzaga (I assume, their up in the 2nd half) all won, meaning less chance of bid-stealers.
But you are right, the most important result is that we won!
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Lunardi just said he isn't ruling out Georgia Tech. Said they could beat Pitt and then Virginia and......
I think these guys are just trolling for dollars now.....
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Lunardi just said he isn't ruling out Georgia Tech. Said they could beat Pitt and then Virginia and......
I think these guys are just trolling for dollars now.....
They gotta fill air time, and still have another week to talk possibilities. To me, there is a pretty significant gap between the first grouping of byes and the first four out. He also has Illinois State as the AQ and Wichita as an at large. When ISU loses tomorrow, they'll fall below us, in all likelihood.
I thought we'd get a little more of a push in the brackets today - from Lunardi specifically, but I'm not gonna lose any sleep over it. I think tomorrow's bracket matrix updates will show that most brackets will have given us a larger boost - perhaps above Michigan State and Dayton. South Carolina dropping like a rock too, and Va Tech and Ok State lost today as well. Some room for upward movement despite wins for a lot of back end tournament teams today.
Bottom line, MU is in the tournament and has put themselves in a great spot heading into MsG.
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SI.com moved MU to a lock along with Creighton, Nova, and Butler.
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SI.com moved MU to a lock along with Creighton, Nova, and Butler.
Sweet.
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Palm moved Marquette up to a 10 seed this am. Logic got the better of him, apparently.
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SI.com moved MU to a lock along with Creighton, Nova, and Butler.
hope we are a 11 seed
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hope we are a 11 seed
Lunardi has us as an 11 versus Minnesota. Would be an excellent matchup for us. Arizona in round 2....not so much.
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Lunardi has us as an 11 versus Minnesota. Would be an excellent matchup for us. Arizona in round 2....not so much.
that means he has zona as a 4?
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that means he has zona as a 4?
A 3. 4s play 5/12 winner.
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#8 seed in USA Today...going up against Buzz and co.
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Lunardi gave MU no love for its win yesterday ... We are just one spot away from playing in Dayton according to the latest Bracketology=.
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There's going to be a lot of bracketology click baiting going on this week. So lots of crazy stuff will be written. Stuff like 'We just heard that MU beat Dayton in the secret scrimmage so we've moved them from the Last 4 In group to the very last Last 4 Byes'
Here's probably more what the reality is in the committee room. Seton Hall and MU have something like a 10 and bye 11 seed already positioned for them. Winner on Thursday gets the 10. Done, unless something crazy happens (like winning the BEast) and need to re-look.
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There's going to be a lot of bracketology click baiting going on this week. So lots of crazy stuff will be written. Stuff like 'We just heard that MU beat Dayton in the secret scrimmage so we've moved them from the Last 4 In group to the very last Last 4 Byes'
Where is NateDogg?
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There's going to be a lot of bracketology click baiting going on this week. So lots of crazy stuff will be written. Stuff like 'We just heard that MU beat Dayton in the secret scrimmage so we've moved them from the Last 4 In group to the very last Last 4 Byes'
Here's probably more what the reality is in the committee room. Seton Hall and MU have something like a 10 and bye 11 seed already positioned for them. Winner on Thursday gets the 10. Done, unless something crazy happens (like winning the BEast) and need to re-look.
i kind of want to be an 11 seed but it doesn't matter let's just win games and get to arizona
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i kind of want to be an 11 seed but it doesn't matter let's just win games and get to arizona
As a kid I always paid a ton of attention to who my hockey and baseball teams would play in tournaments, playoffs, etc. I always knew who was good and who wasn't, paid much more attention that your average 10-17 year old. As a kid my hockey coaches would literally ask me for scouting reports. Probably where I get my obsession with the bubble stuff. Been that way since I was little.
But my old man would always tell me, "Son, in order to be the best, you gotta beat the best." While we'd all love to avoid playing a 1 or a 2 in the round of 32, it's more than likely we will do just that should we get through the opening round. And we can beat those teams. Things open up a bit after that.
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As a kid I always paid a ton of attention to who my hockey and baseball teams would play in tournaments, playoffs, etc. I always knew who was good and who wasn't, paid much more attention that your average 10-17 year old. As a kid my hockey coaches would literally ask me for scouting reports. Probably where I get my obsession with the bubble stuff. Been that way since I was little.
But my old man would always tell me, "Son, in order to be the best, you gotta beat the best." While we'd all love to avoid playing a 1 or a 2 in the round of 32, it's more than likely we will do just that should we get through the opening round. And we can beat those teams. Things open up a bit after that.
your right but could be hang won't a Kansas, unc, or a gonzaga? I think we could against the zags but I mean I believe in the boys
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As a kid I always paid a ton of attention to who my hockey and baseball teams would play in tournaments, playoffs, etc. I always knew who was good and who wasn't, paid much more attention that your average 10-17 year old. As a kid my hockey coaches would literally ask me for scouting reports. Probably where I get my obsession with the bubble stuff. Been that way since I was little.
But my old man would always tell me, "Son, in order to be the best, you gotta beat the best." While we'd all love to avoid playing a 1 or a 2 in the round of 32, it's more than likely we will do just that should we get through the opening round. And we can beat those teams. Things open up a bit after that.
Each of the last two years, the basketball team I coach lost a coin flip to be No. 1 seed in our tournament. Each time, I fretted a little about having to play a much tougher semifinal opponent, and each time I was disappointed we wouldn't get to host the title game. But each time, we beat the semifinal opponent, and each time we went on to win the championship on the road. And each time, I'm convinced having to play the tougher semifinal opponent got us better prepared for the championship game.
It's fun to speculate, but all's we can do is beat the team in front of us.
As an aside ...
I appreciate the contributions of you, TAMU and others who are really into bracketology and who have a good fix on how the process works. Very helpful. Keep 'em coming!
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Illinois State getting drubbed by Wichita. I kinda doubt they make it, and if they do, definitely First Four. I think Vandy is in that group too.
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Illinois State getting drubbed by Wichita. I kinda doubt they make it, and if they do, definitely First Four. I think Vandy is in that group too.
My thought is that they do not pass the eye test. Granted this is one game, but they do not look like a tournament team today.
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My thought is that they do not pass the eye test. Granted this is one game, but they do not look like a tournament team today.
They haven't for awhile. Made a habit of winning one possession games against bad teams the last month, with a 40 point pounding from Wichita mixed in.
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Gotta think that Illinois State is done after today. Manhandled in MVC Championship Game.
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Monmouth just lost. Can't imagine them getting an at large, but worth noting.
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Monmouth just lost. Can't imagine them getting an at large, but worth noting.
They were always a long shot. I think if any of the one bid league teams sneak at large it will be Middle Tennessee State or Nevada.
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....
I appreciate the contributions of you, TAMU and others who are really into bracketology and who have a good fix on how the process works. Very helpful. Keep 'em coming!
I'll say this...I agree that JJJJ, you have provided a lot of substance to Scoop. But do you think razzing Marquette Fan in NY in your signature may be played out?
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Based on everything I've read here and elsewhere, I'm at least 95% confident that we're in and very much deservedly so.
However ...
I can't remember which year it was, but one year when I lived in Minny, the Gophers were so sure they were getting into the tourney that they actually had a big party. Clem Haskins and most players were there, the media was invited, select season-ticket holders, the cheerleaders, etc. It was a real shindig.
And then the Gophers didn't get a bid. The room went from Party Central to Funeral City. Clem was outraged, but he had to wear it. A pretty embarrassing day in Gophers sports history.
So while I'm very confident, I don't think I'll hold a party at my house on Selection Sunday. It would be bad mojo!
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Based on everything I've read here and elsewhere, I'm at least 95% confident that we're in and very much deservedly so.
However ...
I can't remember which year it was, but one year when I lived in Minny, the Gophers were so sure they were getting into the tourney that they actually had a big party. Clem Haskins and most players were there, the media was invited, select season-ticket holders, the cheerleaders, etc. It was a real shindig.
And then the Gophers didn't get a bid. The room went from Party Central to Funeral City. Clem was outraged, but he had to wear it. A pretty embarrassing day in Gophers sports history.
So while I'm very confident, I don't think I'll hold a party at my house on Selection Sunday. It would be bad mojo!
I think the two craziest ones:
2004, 25-3 Utah State ranked 22nd in the Nation
2014, 23/25th ranked SMU
I just don't see how you can leave teams out that the nation's experts think are top 25 teams...moral of the story, until your name is called you aren't in.
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I think the two craziest ones:
2004, 25-3 Utah State ranked 22nd in the Nation
2014, 23/25th ranked SMU
I just don't see how you can leave teams out that the nation's experts think are top 25 teams...moral of the story, until your name is called you aren't in.
That'll occasionally happen in strong bubble years where a team doesn't play a strong conference season. It was one of my main concerns going into the New Big East. Hilariously 2/3 teams I thought would have to carry the conference have mostly laid an egg so far.
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I think the two craziest ones:
2004, 25-3 Utah State ranked 22nd in the Nation
2014, 23/25th ranked SMU
I just don't see how you can leave teams out that the nation's experts think are top 25 teams...moral of the story, until your name is called you aren't in.
I think it's a good reminder that the top-25 is really meaningless. That Utah State team hardly played anyone. Lost to Utah and beat BYU in non-conference, split with conference champion Pacific. One of the first good examples of "you've got to play someone". For SMU, they treated the whole AAC like crap that year. SMU didn't have any good non-conference wins (a bad Texas A&M was their best win). When they announced 29-5 Louisville, who Pomeroy had as the #1 team in the country, as a 4-seed, the writing was on the wall. As good as the top of that league was (Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, and NC UConn) there was too much crap at the bottom.
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I'll say this...I agree that JJJJ, you have provided a lot of substance to Scoop. But do you think razzing Marquette Fan in NY in your signature may be played out?
Some people are too damn sensitive.
But sure, I will oblige. I'll find another ridiculous comment to poke fun at for the next several weeks. Shouldn't be too hard.
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I think the two craziest ones:
2004, 25-3 Utah State ranked 22nd in the Nation
2014, 23/25th ranked SMU
I just don't see how you can leave teams out that the nation's experts think are top 25 teams...moral of the story, until your name is called you aren't in.
Yep! I only count the chickens I have. Saw the following in another thread:
Team Top 50 Wins Top 50 Losses
Villanova 10 3
Florida St. 10 4
North Carolina 10 4
Butler 10 4
Duke 10 6
Baylor 9 4
Kansas 8 2
Kentucky 7 5
Minnesota 7 6
Marquette 7 6
Louisville 7 7
If Gonzaga does not win their tourney, could they be out?
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Yep! I only count the chickens I have. Saw the following in another thread:
Team Top 50 Wins Top 50 Losses
Villanova 10 3
Florida St. 10 4
North Carolina 10 4
Butler 10 4
Duke 10 6
Baylor 9 4
Kansas 8 2
Kentucky 7 5
Minnesota 7 6
Marquette 7 6
Louisville 7 7
If Gonzaga does not win their tourney, could they be out?
?-(
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Yep! I only count the chickens I have. Saw the following in another thread:
Team Top 50 Wins Top 50 Losses
Villanova 10 3
Florida St. 10 4
North Carolina 10 4
Butler 10 4
Duke 10 6
Baylor 9 4
Kansas 8 2
Kentucky 7 5
Minnesota 7 6
Marquette 7 6
Louisville 7 7
If Gonzaga does not win their tourney, could they be out?
Even if they lose in the championship game they will still be in keep in mind that the zags beat Arizona, Iowa State, Florida and St Mary's twice
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Yep! I only count the chickens I have. Saw the following in another thread:
Team Top 50 Wins Top 50 Losses
Villanova 10 3
Florida St. 10 4
North Carolina 10 4
Butler 10 4
Duke 10 6
Baylor 9 4
Kansas 8 2
Kentucky 7 5
Minnesota 7 6
Marquette 7 6
Louisville 7 7
If Gonzaga does not win their tourney, could they be out?
LOL!
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Some people are too damn sensitive.
But sure, I will oblige. I'll find another ridiculous comment to poke fun at for the next several weeks. Shouldn't be too hard.
Plus MUFNY might have been correct. With JJJ at point we may have finished the regular season 5-0 instead of 4-1.
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Yep! I only count the chickens I have. Saw the following in another thread:
Team Top 50 Wins Top 50 Losses
Villanova 10 3
Florida St. 10 4
North Carolina 10 4
Butler 10 4
Duke 10 6
Baylor 9 4
Kansas 8 2
Kentucky 7 5
Minnesota 7 6
Marquette 7 6
Louisville 7 7
If Gonzaga does not win their tourney, could they be out?
No. Not even close.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Up a few spots per Lunardi, the Bracket King. We are now a 10 seed playing South Carolina in Sacramento.
That would be a very interesting matchup. An unstoppable force (Marquette's Offense) vs. an immovable object (South Carolina's defense).
It also tells you something about the bubble when Illinois can lose to Rutgers and still be considered "First Four Out."
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Up a few spots per Lunardi, the Bracket King. We are now a 10 seed playing South Carolina in Sacramento.
That would be a very interesting matchup. An unstoppable force (Marquette's Offense) vs. an immovable object (South Carolina's defense).
It also tells you something about the bubble when Illinois can lose to Rutgers and still be considered "First Four Out."
I will take a 10 seed no problem. I would love to avoid the 8-9 this year.
That being said, it will take a BET championship game or actual championship to get to the 7.
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That would be a very interesting matchup. An unstoppable force (Marquette's Offense) vs. an immovable object (South Carolina's defense).
I like our chances in a classic good offense/bad defense vs. good defense/bad offense matchup.
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I like our chances in a classic good offense/bad defense vs. good defense/bad offense matchup.
the literal movable object against the resistible force.
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Yep! I only count the chickens I have. Saw the following in another thread:
Team Top 50 Wins Top 50 Losses
Villanova 10 3
Florida St. 10 4
North Carolina 10 4
Butler 10 4
Duke 10 6
Baylor 9 4
Kansas 8 2
Kentucky 7 5
Minnesota 7 6
Marquette 7 6
Louisville 7 7
If Gonzaga does not win their tourney, could they be out?
At least you formed it as a question...
They would be 'out' as a 1 seed...let's just go with that.
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Even Palm is coming around, #10 seed against Iowa State...
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
Though, of course, he made sure to mitigate it...
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch)
"Marquette has some good wins, but a lot of losses. The Golden Eagles didn't play a very good non-conference schedule and is paying for that a little bit now as well. Marquette finished well though and is one win away from getting off this list.?
Haha, a lot of losses? We have 11 which is in no way, shape, or form high for a team hovering around the 9/10 seed line.
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Even Palm is coming around, #10 seed against Iowa State...
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology)
Though, of course, he made sure to mitigate it...
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch)
"Marquette has some good wins, but a lot of losses. The Golden Eagles didn't play a very good non-conference schedule and is paying for that a little bit now as well. Marquette finished well though and is one win away from getting off this list.?
Haha, a lot of losses? We have 11 which is in no way, shape, or form high for a team hovering around the 9/10 seed line.
He's had that first sentence ('some good wins but a lot of losses') for about a month. The same page lists Marquette as 6th in the Big East. Wouldn't put too much weight on anything Palm throws out there.
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stewart mandel has us as an 8 seed playing arkansas and if we would win we would most likely play #1 Gonzaga
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Bracket Matrix morning update: Up to the top 10 seed, in every bracket except for RealTimeRPI.
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Bracket Matrix morning update: Up to the top 10 seed, in every bracket except for RealTimeRPI.
I wonder the logic for RealTimeRPI. You would think they were weighting RPI high, but they have Syracuse in and us out, which makes no sense from an RPI standpoint.
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I wonder the logic for RealTimeRPI. You would think they were weighting RPI high, but they have Syracuse in and us out, which makes no sense from an RPI standpoint.
Lol yah, they haven't had us in a bracket all year. Its like they don't know we even exist!
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No. Not even close.
So as far a Gonzaga goes, top 50 wins/losses don't matter? They get a pass?
Just asking, as forgetful did point out some ranked teams did not get selected.
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So as far a Gonzaga goes, top 50 wins/losses don't matter? They get a pass?
Just asking, as forgetful did point out some ranked teams did not get selected.
They are 4-0 against RPI top 25 teams and 10-1 against RPI top 100 teams. They have wins over Arizona, Florida, Iowa State, and Tennessee and none of those were at home.
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Does st Mary's warrant an at large bid this year?
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So as far a Gonzaga goes, top 50 wins/losses don't matter? They get a pass?
Just asking, as forgetful did point out some ranked teams did not get selected.
The imperfect stats that we have, at some point you have to value winning and the dreaded "eye test". I don't think they're the #1 overall seed, and if they don't win their tourney, I don't think the belong as a #1 at all. But this is a good basketball team, and any sort of sustained winning should be valued.
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So as far a Gonzaga goes, top 50 wins/losses don't matter? They get a pass?
Just asking, as forgetful did point out some ranked teams did not get selected.
They are 5-0 against the top 50, and 10-1 against the top 100.
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Does st Mary's warrant an at large bid this year?
Yes. 7-9 seed range IMO.
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They are 5-0 against the top 50, and 10-1 against the top 100.
Not to mention #1 in Pomeroy and Sagarin and 10th in RPI.
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So as far a Gonzaga goes, top 50 wins/losses don't matter? They get a pass?
Just asking, as forgetful did point out some ranked teams did not get selected.
Top 50 wins is an important stat to the committee. It is not the only stat.
They have 4 top 25 wins. 5 top 50. 10 top 100. No bad losses. 1 loss total.
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This link from Last Year has Lunardi whining about the committee's choices....but what's interesting is the video of him interviewing the chair on the last 4 in and out.
The big deal was strength of schedule and top 50 wins. If similar thinking in the committee this year I think we are in good shape.
oops....heres the link:
http://www.espn.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/112470/the-committee-got-so-much-wrong-and-here-is-how
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Now in 106 out of 107 brackets. We hopped over Michigan State and are now the top 10 seed. Gonna need a lot of help to jump the entire 8/9 seed line. Tank for the 10 seed?
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Now in 106 out of 107 brackets. We hopped over Michigan State and are now the top 10 seed. Gonna need a lot of help to jump the entire 8/9 seed line. Tank for the 10 seed?
Despite the disrespect we'd be receiving, I will be happy with an 11 seed and bye should we lose on Thursday.
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http://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/bigboard/ (http://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/bigboard/)
Yahoo does a nice little matrix that shows top 50 wins. MU top 10 seed. Next team to match or beat Marquette in top 50 wins? Have to go all the way up to Butler, as the top 4 seed.
Knowing how much the committee loves top 50 wins, I think we may be pleasantly surprised with our seed no matter what happens at MSG.
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http://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/bigboard/ (http://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/bigboard/)
Yahoo does a nice little matrix that shows top 50 wins. MU top 10 seed. Next team to match or beat Marquette in top 50 wins? Have to go all the way up to Butler, as the top 4 seed.
Knowing how much the committee loves top 50 wins, I think we may be pleasantly surprised with our seed no matter what happens at MSG.
I agree. Wouldn't surprise me if the bracket experts are underseeding us. Similar to how the 2010 team was 2-3 lines higher than most everyone expected.
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I agree. Wouldn't surprise me if the bracket experts are underseeding us. Similar to how the 2010 team was 2-3 lines higher than most everyone expected.
Plus if we beat SHU, and Georgia sneaks into the top 50, we'd have 9.
Edit: RPI Wizard puts Georgia exactly at 50 with a win over Tennessee and loss to Kentucky in the SEC tournament, so adding them to the top 50 win list is certainly conceivable.
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I agree. Wouldn't surprise me if the bracket experts are underseeding us. Similar to how the 2010 team was 2-3 lines higher than most everyone expected.
Ok, once you start talking like this you are really inviting the karma fairies to come screw with us. Just sayin'.
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UNC-W wins CAA tournament. It was unlikely anyways, but no bid thief from the CAA
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As Mick Cronin said, seeding is a farce designed to create "money matchups." It really doesn't matter where the committee seeds us as our opponent, probably another at large team, may not be any better than us.
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What's up with Eamonn Brennan? No Bubble Watch in 3 days? Does ESPN have one of those "Take as much time off as you need" benefit time policies? Does he think he's a millenial? GET BACK TO WORK!
(https://68.media.tumblr.com/4433901e8c97560268040071acca9b99/tumblr_ogs713QUIM1umcm23o1_500.gif)
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What's up with Eamonn Brennan? No Bubble Watch in 3 days? Does ESPN have one of those "Take as much time off as you need" benefit time policies? Does he think he's a millenial? GET BACK TO WORK!
(https://68.media.tumblr.com/4433901e8c97560268040071acca9b99/tumblr_ogs713QUIM1umcm23o1_500.gif)
He tweeted they will be back to daily updates starting tomorrow AM.
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Oh - never mind.
(http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/firefly.gif)
(thx)
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As Mick Cronin said, seeding is a farce designed to create "money matchups." It really doesn't matter where the committee seeds us as our opponent, probably another at large team, may not be any better than us.
I saw this quote and I see his point, but most of the tournament sites were sold out before the tournament started a few years ago.
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I saw this quote and I see his point, but most of the tournament sites were sold out before the tournament started a few years ago.
Tournament committee chair was asked about Cronins comment and he specifically said it has no bearing on bracketing and that 95% of tickets are sold before the bracket is released.
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Oh - never mind.
(http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/firefly.gif)
(thx)
Also, he's very much a millennial at a sprightly 31 years old
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Another update on bracketmatrix. We are still in the same spot, top 10 seed. We are now in 124/125 brackets. The only bracket we are not in is real time RPI, which I believe exclusively uses RPI to determine the field.
At this point there are only 8 teams outside the field currently appearing on any brackets. There are 10 teams between us and the NIT. 4 of the 8 teams only appear on 5 brackets or less. A fifth team only appears on 9 brackets. A 6th only appears on 13 brackets. It really seems like there are only two teams on the outside with a legitimate shot, Rhode Island and Kansas State. And it won't be at our expense. For fun, here's the resumes side by side compared to Marquette.
Marquette:
Record: 19-11
RPI: 55
KP: 28
SOS: 45
Top 50: 7-6
Top 100: 10-10
Best Wins: NOVA (1), @CREI (27), @XAV (34)
Worst Losses: @SJU (138), @GTWN (96), PITT (70)
Rhode Island:
Record: 21-9
RPI: 42
KP: 51
SOS: 64
Top 50: 2-3
Top 100: 4-7
Best Wins: CINC (13), VCU (23), BEL (61)
Worst Losses: FORD (211), LAS (126), @RICH (85)
Kansas State:
Record: 19-12
RPI: 59
KP: 32
SOS: 53
Top 50: 3-8
Top 100: 5-10
Best Wins: @BAY (6), @OKST (35), WVU (22)
Worst Losses: @OKLA (153), @TTU (106), TCU (79)
Always important to remember, we don't have to outrun the bear. Just our slowest friend. These two represent the slow friend we have to outrun. Feeling pretty good.
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Here is a research report prepared by CBS Sports. They have an analysis of all 7 candidates.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-2017-big-east-tournament-field-is-set-seven-could-go-dancing/
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Tournament committee chair was asked about Cronins comment and he specifically said it has no bearing on bracketing and that 95% of tickets are sold before the bracket is released.
True, however, you can't tell me seeding a middling Michigan State team a little higher to face a Duke or UNC, for example, in order to get better ratings and thus raising TV revenues in the long haul doesn't happen...
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How Illinois is still on the bubble after losing to Rutgers confuses me
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Same as Providence being in despite losing to Boston College and Depaul..
Vandy lost to Missouri..
Plenty of bad losses on the resumes for bubble teams, and even teams locked into the tourny (like Providence).
Being in the last 4 or 8 out doesn't really mean they are close. They're not.
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Finally moved to the teams that should be in on ESPN as well.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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True, however, you can't tell me seeding a middling Michigan State team a little higher to face a Duke or UNC, for example, in order to get better ratings and thus raising TV revenues in the long haul doesn't happen...
It doesn't happen. Ever. Committee has a job to do and that job isn't to maximize revenue for the NCAA. Heck, there isn't even an NCAA rep at the selection table... you think these AD's from all over the country give a damn about ticket sales or ratings in Salt Lake City?
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True, however, you can't tell me seeding a middling Michigan State team a little higher to face a Duke or UNC, for example, in order to get better ratings and thus raising TV revenues in the long haul doesn't happen...
When do you believe this has happened previously?
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Tournament committee chair was asked about Cronins comment and he specifically said it has no bearing on bracketing and that 95% of tickets are sold before the bracket is released.
This response assumes that the NCAA tournament derives its money from ticket sales. I'm skeptical. The large majority of the income is from the television rights, not ticket sales. So, intriguing match-ups that draw eyeballs lead to higher ratings which leads to better broadcast rights deals.
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This response assumes that the NCAA tournament derives its money from ticket sales. I'm skeptical. The large majority of the income is from the television rights, not ticket sales. So, intriguing match-ups that draw eyeballs lead to higher ratings which leads to better broadcast rights deals.
So the committee takes into account potential television ratings for a tournament whose television deal stretches into the 2030s?
And again, show me an example of when this has occurred. When has a team been moved among seed lines to set up a television match-up that would draw more eyeballs then it would otherwise?
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So the committee takes into account potential television ratings for a tournament whose television deal stretches into the 2030s?
And again, show me an example of when this has occurred. When has a team been moved among seed lines to set up a television match-up that would draw more eyeballs then it would otherwise?
There is always the conspiracy theory that certain matchups were setup, because they have cool story lines. But the bottom line is that the frequency with which that occurs is well within what one would expect based on random chance. There aren't that many ways to arrange things and fit all the rules.
People love a good conspiracy theory though.
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Finally moved to the teams that should be in on ESPN as well.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Making new believers every day.
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There is always the conspiracy theory that certain matchups were setup, because they have cool story lines. But the bottom line is that the frequency with which that occurs is well within what one would expect based on random chance. There aren't that many ways to arrange things and fit all the rules.
People love a good conspiracy theory though.
Exactly. A lot of these match-ups have to do with coaches and we all know how small that world is in high-level DI hoops.
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There is always the conspiracy theory that certain matchups were setup, because they have cool story lines. But the bottom line is that the frequency with which that occurs is well within what one would expect based on random chance. There aren't that many ways to arrange things and fit all the rules.
People love a good conspiracy theory though.
Don't bring your hoity-toity frequencies, standard deviations, and fancy p-value talk around here. While technically correct (the best kind of correct), it is not effectively correct for Scoop purposes.
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I agree. Wouldn't surprise me if the bracket experts are underseeding us. Similar to how the 2010 team was 2-3 lines higher than most everyone expected.
If you take MU's top 50 wins at face value, then I would agree that the experts are underseeding MU. However, I think they may be pricing in the Xavier and Creighton injuries and their RPIs may not reflect the quality of the wins as top-50 when MU beat them. I don't know by how many seeds MU is underseeded if they are. But if it means they get a 10 instead of an 8 or 9, that's ok by me.
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Don't bring your hoity-toity frequencies, standard deviations, and fancy p-value talk around here. While technically correct (the best kind of correct), it is not effectively correct for Scoop purposes.
#SizeOfPValuesNoMatta
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There is always the conspiracy theory that certain matchups were setup, because they have cool story lines.
If we're a 7 or 10 in Kentucky's bracket I'll buy into the "Marquette and Kentucky have the most-played matchup in tourney history, so let's match them up again" conspiracy theory.
Maybe if we end up matched with Northwestern in a Collins-Wojo battle too. That's about it.
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If we're a 7 or 10 in Kentucky's bracket I'll buy into the "Marquette and Kentucky have the most-played matchup in tourney history, so let's match them up again" conspiracy theory.
Maybe if we end up matched with Northwestern in a Collins-Wojo battle too. That's about it.
Va Tech / MU would be interesting as well.
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No one outside of Marquette, Northwestern, or Duke enthusiasts would care about a Collins-Wojo matchup, as exciting a matchup as that would actually be.
Now if we end up against VT, we would ask for an independent party to oversee the process
(https://mytaxpartner.pwc.com/media/270209/pwc_icon_twitter_128x128.png)
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If we're a 7 or 10 in Kentucky's bracket I'll buy into the "Marquette and Kentucky have the most-played matchup in tourney history, so let's match them up again" conspiracy theory.
Maybe if we end up matched with Northwestern in a Collins-Wojo battle too. That's about it.
Actually, the last time there was a selection committee conspiracy, it involved Kentucky not wanting to play Marquette resulting in an NIT banner for us.
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Exactly. A lot of these match-ups have to do with coaches and we all know how small that world is in high-level DI hoops.
+1
It's like 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon.
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Don't bring your hoity-toity frequencies, standard deviations, and fancy p-value talk around here. While technically correct (the best kind of correct), it is not effectively correct for Scoop purposes.
(http://i.imgur.com/gRk1uZm.gif)
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So far, no bid stealers. MVC was a potential one if Witchita St didn't win. WCC final between Gonzaga and St. Mary's means no stolen bid there either.
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some bracketoligists think Middle Tennessee can get a at large bid
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I just saw UWM is making a run at the tourney by making the Horizon final. They play Northern Kentucky on ESPN tonight after going 4-14 in conference play.
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Ok, once you start talking like this you are really inviting the karma fairies to come screw with us. Just sayin'.
As long as we're in, I don't care if it's a 3-seed or the very last team in Dayton.
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I just saw UWM is making a run at the tourney by making the Horizon final. They play Northern Kentucky on ESPN tonight after going 4-14 in conference play.
and having 10 wins the whole season. Really good job their coach has done with the team. On espn last night the announcer said that uwm top 6 leading scorers had either graduated or transferred
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http://m.espn.com/wireless/relatedvideos?id=18843140&cid=2459792&backText=NCAAM%20Bracketology%20-%20ESPN&back=http%3A%2F%2Fm.espn.com%2Fncb%2Fbracketology%3Fiteration%3D250%26region%3D2%26year%3D2017
See first video below. No respect. This seems crazy even being a big east fan.
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http://m.espn.com/wireless/relatedvideos?id=18843140&cid=2459792&backText=NCAAM%20Bracketology%20-%20ESPN&back=http%3A%2F%2Fm.espn.com%2Fncb%2Fbracketology%3Fiteration%3D250%26region%3D2%26year%3D2017
See first video below. No respect. This seems crazy even being a big east fan.
Yeah, he's out of his mind.
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http://m.espn.com/wireless/relatedvideos?id=18843140&cid=2459792&backText=NCAAM%20Bracketology%20-%20ESPN&back=http%3A%2F%2Fm.espn.com%2Fncb%2Fbracketology%3Fiteration%3D250%26region%3D2%26year%3D2017
See first video below. No respect. This seems crazy even being a big east fan.
He's only worried about the ACC.
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Greenberg is a big ACC guy. Just doing his part for the mothership.
#Alternativefacts
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I wish the Big East had a mothership sports site that had great articles and game videos. Seems like you have to go to youtube to see highlights. foxsports.com sucks.
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I wonder what Greenberg's definition of "earn a chance to play in the NCAA tournament" is. Because the only team that NEEDs to win one in the BET is Xavier. And that's just because they are playing Depaul. Marquette/Seton Hall/Providence all have a chance to play. There is no situation where the fans of those teams are not watching on Selection Sunday.
My guess is that most talking heads talk this way about every time that is not a lock. Even if it would take extraordinary results for the team to not make it.
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I just saw UWM is making a run at the tourney by making the Horizon final. They play Northern Kentucky on ESPN tonight after going 4-14 in conference play.
the Horizon tourney was really sad. 3 of the 4 teams in the semi-finals were a combined 32-60
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the Horizon tourney was really sad. 3 of the 4 teams in the semi-finals were a combined 32-60
Was? It's not over. So several desperate teams get hot at the right time---why is that sad?
UWM didn't win 3 in a row all year, and they have won 3 in this tourney--going for 4 tonight. A #10 seed has never won a game in this tournament, and UWM has won 3. No team has ever played in March Madness with as many losses as UWM........23.
Lavell is a hell of a coach and was dealt sheet......but he certainly HS them playing now.
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http://m.espn.com/wireless/relatedvideos?id=18843140&cid=2459792&backText=NCAAM%20Bracketology%20-%20ESPN&back=http%3A%2F%2Fm.espn.com%2Fncb%2Fbracketology%3Fiteration%3D250%26region%3D2%26year%3D2017
See first video below. No respect. This seems crazy even being a big east fan.
Well, if he's right (hint: he's not), Marquette and Seton Hall cannot both make the tournament.
"Those four teams need to advance in the Big East tournament to earn a chance to play in the NCAA tournament."
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Wake Forest lost tonight. They may be in some trouble now.
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Seth is now saying he has all of them in the tourney except X.
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Seth is now saying he has all of them in the tourney except X.
You're welcome ;)
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Wake Forest lost tonight. They may be in some trouble now.
Uh, no. They beat BC
Georgia tech lost.
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Uh, no. They beat BC
Georgia tech lost.
I'm done for the day.
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I'm done for the day.
Hasn't even got crazy yet...........
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Uh, no. They beat BC
Georgia tech lost.
Honestly better that Georgia Tech lost than Wake Forest. Eliminates the Yellow Jackets for good and Pitt's win gives us an RPI boost.
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I thought this thread was going to veer into talk of Seth Greenberg's daughters cause that's like a Scoop thing, no?
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So far, no bid stealers. MVC was a potential one if Witchita St didn't win. WCC final between Gonzaga and St. Mary's means no stolen bid there either.
I still think Illinois State gets in. With several P6 schools with losing conference records in the hunt, I get the feeling they'll throw the mid-majors a bone and put Illinois State and their 17-1 MVC record in the first four.
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I still think Illinois State gets in. With several P6 schools with losing conference records in the hunt, I get the feeling they'll throw the mid-majors a bone and put Illinois State and their 17-1 MVC record in the first four.
I know they are in a not so good conference but they are a good team
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I know they are in a not so good conference but they are a good team
Are they? Three bad losses, two drubbings by the one good team they played this year and won win over that one good team they played. To me it seems like a team that would be completely shell shocked going into the tournament.
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Are they? Three bad losses, two drubbings by the one good team they played this year and won win over that one good team they played. To me it seems like a team that would be completely shell shocked going into the tournament.
Nah, theyre decent. They play a really funky defence that could give teams fits.
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Nah, theyre decent. They play a really funky defence that could give teams fits.
From where I sit, ISU has no chance. They have one good, not great, win. One. With three bad losses. 24 of their 27 wins came against teams with an RPI over 100. No chance.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/ILLST/illinois-state-redbirds (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/ILLST/illinois-state-redbirds)
EDIT: Mid-majors have to force the committee's hand. That resume has no such force.
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From where I sit, ISU has no chance. They have one good, not great, win. One. With three bad losses. 24 of their 27 wins came against teams with an RPI over 100. No chance.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/ILLST/illinois-state-redbirds (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/ILLST/illinois-state-redbirds)
EDIT: Mid-majors have to force the committee's hand. That resume has no such force.
That's how I see it. MVC is 12th in conference RPI, right between the Colonial and Sun Belt. Those are one bid conferences. The Valley has reputation but this year it isn't very good. Only two teams with winning records, both overall and in conference play. I think Wichita St will be seeded as a 10 or 11. Well below the 8-9 range most brackets project.
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That's how I see it. MVC is 12th in conference RPI, right between the Colonial and Sun Belt. Those are one bid conferences. The Valley has reputation but this year it isn't very good. Only two teams with winning records, both overall and in conference play. I think Wichita St will be seeded as a 10 or 11. Well below the 8-9 range most brackets project.
Wichita St will be playing at dayton i think
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Wichita St will be playing at dayton i think
They will be closer to a 6 seed than an 11/12 seed.
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Wichita St will be playing at dayton i think
Wichita St won their conference tournament. They can't play in Dayton.
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Wichita St will be playing at dayton i think
No chance. They'd have to be a 16 seed since they are an automatic qualifier. The 11/12 seed type play in games are for at larges only.
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No chance. They'd have to be a 16 seed since they are an automatic qualifier. The 11/12 seed type play in games are for at larges only.
Ohhh my bad
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18845420/giant-killers-giant-killing-teams-top-seeds-want-avoid-2017-ncaa-tournament
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18845420/giant-killers-giant-killing-teams-top-seeds-want-avoid-2017-ncaa-tournament
For those of us that don't pay for ESPN's shi**y analysis, did they include MU in this?
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18845420/giant-killers-giant-killing-teams-top-seeds-want-avoid-2017-ncaa-tournament
when posting insider the common protocol is to post the mu tidbit
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For those of us that don't pay for ESPN's shi**y analysis, did they include MU in this?
Gist- 3 PT shooting what MU does and they should shoot more of 'em.
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when posting insider the common protocol is to post the mu tidbit
Giant Killer Rating: 41.5
Coach Steve Wojciechowski has a team that made 45 percent of its 3s in Big East play. With a number that high, it's not a stretch to say Marquette can keep up with anyone if the Golden Eagles are feeling like their usual accurate selves.
Sure, critics will say making 3s is all that the Golden Eagles can do. Well, if you had to pick just one thing to be good at, that's not a bad one. Markus Howard is a 55 percent 3-point shooter, and he's joined by the likes of Andrew Rowsey (45.5 percent), Sam Hauser (44.7 percent) and Katin Reinhardt (38.3 percent). With that many threats on the perimeter, Marquette shoots a pretty high number of 3s. Know what? MU should probably shoot even more, though future higher-seeded opponents really hope Woj's guys do not.
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when posting insider the common protocol is to post the mu tidbit
I thought it was to get belligerent when asked to cite your sources.
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I still think if Providence loses to Creighton, they could be sweating out selection Sunday. They are the ONLY team of those not mid major teams that have 3 sub 100 RPI losses, and 2 of those were to sub 200. I can promise you..if they get in over say another bubble team with a similar resume but without those 3 bad losses, that will be heavily talked about Sunday Night/Monday.
Has any team every gotten in the field with 3 losses that bad? Probably but I bet not very often.
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I thought it was to get belligerent when asked to cite your sources.
Haha. Those were good times. Now Mat V's articles don't pull automatically AND no one steals his clicks. Sad.
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I still think if Providence loses to Creighton, they could be sweating out selection Sunday. They are the ONLY team of those not mid major teams that have 3 sub 100 RPI losses, and 2 of those were to sub 200. I can promise you..if they get in over say another bubble team with a similar resume but without those 3 bad losses, that will be heavily talked about Sunday Night/Monday.
Has any team every gotten in the field with 3 losses that bad? Probably but I bet not very often.
Yes, but usually their team name is Syracuse.
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Wichita St will be playing at dayton i think
You think Wichita State is getting a 16 seed? Because only 16 seeded auto-bids and at large teams play in Dayton. At least I'm pretty sure.
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Bracket matrix updated. We're still in the same spot. Still missing from just 1 bracketology, Real Time RPI which exclusively uses RPI to determine inclusion. It also has Northwestern out due to their lower RPI and they are even safer than we are.
Interesting development is that Rhode Island is now considered the last team in and Illinois State is now the first team out, despite the two not playing yesterday. If the masses are right, Illinois State might be out of chances because they cannot play themselves in.
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Syracuse loses. Eff Boeheim.
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Syracuse loses to the U.
Good. F 'cuse.
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Good because a Syracuse loss distances us from the bubble.
Bad because I don't think we can catch Miami at this point. Even if we win the BET.
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Good because a Syracuse loss distances us from the bubble.
Bad because I don't think we can catch Miami at this point. Even if we win the BET.
Much more good than bad, however.
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Miami is pretty much a lock so who cares? Cuse a was a fellow bubble team very close to us. Very good result there for us
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Good because a Syracuse loss distances us from the bubble.
Bad because I don't think we can catch Miami at this point. Even if we win the BET.
Yeah, but if we win the BET, who cares? No chance we get left out with an autobid. Does seeding matter that much?
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Yeah, but if we win the BET, who cares? No chance we get left out with an autobid. Does seeding matter that much?
Literally impossible to get left out with an autobid....
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Literally impossible to get left out with an autobid....
That's what "no chance" means, yes... ;)
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Send the overhyped Orange to Dayton for a slice of humble pie. Better yet, leave'em out.
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Yeah, but if we win the BET, who cares? No chance we get left out with an autobid. Does seeding matter that much?
There is no chance we're getting left out, regardless.
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Yeah, but if we win the BET, who cares? No chance we get left out with an autobid. Does seeding matter that much?
There is no chance we're getting left out, regardless.
JJJJJ's post is why I wouldn't have minded Cuse winning. We are in. I don't worry about getting left out anymore. My next worry is seeding. I'm going to be cheering for the teams right above us to lose.
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JJJJJ's post is why I wouldn't have minded Cuse winning. We are in. I don't worry about getting left out anymore. My next worry is seeding. I'm going to be cheering for the teams right above us to lose.
Maybe we should start a new "Seeding Watch" thread.
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On the ESPN bottom line just now, Lunardi has us as a LOCK. Xavier only one of 7 in big east not a lock.
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Haha. Those were good times. Now Mat V's articles don't pull automatically AND no one steals his clicks. Sad.
Matt's articles have been rendered unreadable by the Gannett-ification of JSOnline.
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On the ESPN bottom line just now, Lunardi has us as a LOCK. Xavier only one of 7 in big east not a lock.
This is excellent, up-to-the-minute bubble reporting.
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Maybe we should start a new "Seeding Watch" thread.
That has crossed my mind...
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There is no chance we're getting left out, regardless.
I agree, I was just pointing out that the goal of making the tournament is reached automatically by winning the BET.
While I'd love a Final Four or national title in the next month, that's not where I'm setting my sights, so frankly, I just don't really care about seeding.
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I agree, I was just pointing out that the goal of making the tournament is reached automatically by winning the BET.
While I'd love a Final Four or national title in the next month, that's not where I'm setting my sights, so frankly, I just don't really care about seeding.
Yah, your sight setting lately has been a bit strange, but hey, to each their own. I do know that once we get there, you'll be pulling for the boys just as much as I am, and that we can agree on! Go MU!
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If we make it to the tournament the teams I would like us to play first round are either Syracuse or Va Tech. Syracuse because that guarantees good TV coverage on the East Coast.
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Yah, your sight setting lately has been a bit strange, but hey, to each their own. I do know that once we get there, you'll be pulling for the boys just as much as I am, and that we can agree on! Go MU!
My sights are always on the same thing. Being an elite program. Contending for national titles and being routinely in the top-10. But I accept these things don't happen overnight. It took Jay Wright a decade to build Villanova into that.
Getting there, in my opinion, takes winning and accolades. Big East titles, Final Fours, 1-seeds, those are the goals, but those are components of becoming a true national title contender. I don't think we're there yet, but I like the path we're on.
I want another national title in my lifetime. I want to remember a national title. Anything less than that is just window dressing that is hopefully building towards that. Runner up, Final Four, those are nice building blocks, but still represent failure. That's why I care about tangible things you can point to, and why little things like first and second weekend wins have minimal meaning if you don't win two games on the final weekend of the season.
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If we make it to the tournament the teams I would like us to play first round are either Syracuse or Va Tech. Syracuse because that guarantees good TV coverage on the East Coast.
I think the only way we play Syracuse in the first round is if we get a 5 seed and they get a 12, or if we fall all the way to the play in game. There's no situation where we get a 5 and I don't think there is any situation where both Syracuse and us are in Dayton. Too many teams between us at this point. If we fall all the way to Dayton than Syracuse will get pushed into the NIT. Theoretically possible if all the teams between us do really well and the teams behind Syracuse don't but unlikely. But I don't hope to play Syracuse because if we do it will be in Dayton and I want a higher seed.
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Yeah, but if we win the BET, who cares? No chance we get left out with an autobid. Does seeding matter that much?
Seeding doesn't matter all that much, but I dream about winning a Big East Title.
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Clemson lost to Duke. If there was any doubt (there wasn't, really) now they are officially done.
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Seeding doesn't matter all that much, but I dream about winning a Big East Title.
I envy you. I've always been a "go big or go home" kind of guy who was born 8+ months after Al wept on the bench for the last time. Which pretty much means that every college basketball season has been a disappointed my entire life, although beating Utah State would be the sole exception but only because I was holding my oldest the entire game, and by the time Lazar sank that last FT, more than half of my son's life up to that point had been spent sleeping in my arms.
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Clemson lost to Duke. If there was any doubt (there wasn't, really) now they are officially done.
Sadly Lunardi kept refusing to kill them(or Indiana)
Until no games remain
Mental
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Sadly Lunardi kept refusing to kill them(or Indiana)
Until no games remain
Mental
It may just be a dearth of teams that are out but close to getting in. If you look at Bracket Matrix, there's a huge drop from team #70 to the rest. Maybe a "good" loss doesn't drop Clemson behind anyone new, and Joey still has to fill his first and next four out, even if there's next to no chance Clemson moves up into the field.
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It may just be a dearth of teams that are out but close to getting in. If you look at Bracket Matrix, there's a huge drop from team #70 to the rest. Maybe a "good" loss doesn't drop Clemson behind anyone new, and Joey still has to fill his first and next four out, even if there's next to no chance Clemson moves up into the field.
If all the bubble teams lose, SOMEONE still has to be selected.
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My sights are always on the same thing. Being an elite program. Contending for national titles and being routinely in the top-10. But I accept these things don't happen overnight. It took Jay Wright a decade to build Villanova into that.
Getting there, in my opinion, takes winning and accolades. Big East titles, Final Fours, 1-seeds, those are the goals, but those are components of becoming a true national title contender. I don't think we're there yet, but I like the path we're on.
I want another national title in my lifetime. I want to remember a national title. Anything less than that is just window dressing that is hopefully building towards that. Runner up, Final Four, those are nice building blocks, but still represent failure. That's why I care about tangible things you can point to, and why little things like first and second weekend wins have minimal meaning if you don't win two games on the final weekend of the season.
Clearly, you just don't place as much value on early round wins as part of the building blocks towards future success. But, I think there is a pretty good argument that those early round wins can be important building blocks towards the ultimate goal. As you said, "getting there . . . takes winning and accolades."
I think that most of us agree that at this point, we've met or exceeded expectations for this year, all things considered. We are largely playing with house money from here on out.
We won't fault Wojo or the team if we end up losing the first round game--likely, it'll be a toss-up or we'll be slight underdogs, and just getting there this year is a prize unto itself.
But this is where I think things have the potential to change the relevance for the program. Win when we aren't expected to (particularly in the Dance).
Especially this early in Wojo's coaching career, an unexpected S16 run will certainly have an impact on reputation and recruiting. Gives Wojo a little more cache to go into a recruit's home and make his pitch against the blue bloods, making it a little easier to bring in high level talent. He's already shown that he can recruit good talent without that success; just imagine what he can do with a little more heft to his resume. A few NCAA wins will also re-energize the casual fan base, which we all agree has been lackluster the last few seasons.
One of the things that really accelerated our program under Buzz was that while we expected to compete under him (especially after the first year or two), I don't think anyone expected that Sweet 16 run as an 11 seed in 2011. But, that started off a string of success resulting in three straight S16s (and an Elite 8!).
All of this is to say--while simply making the tourney this year will be great, and a sign that we are moving the right direction, a win or two would help accelerate the entire process and do a lot to jump start the excitement around the program.
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The whole clemson thing has been totally annoying to me. Regardless of whether MU gets in and where they stand the fact the the name Clemson continues to roll off these dbags lips is vomi inducing. My goodness, take illinois, or illinois state or belmont or houston or any other bubble team before clemson. My good ness they went 6-12 in the acc, read that agin they lost twice as many games as they won. They did nothing all season long and its a slap in the face of all bubke teams and is beyond reason or onjectivity that they even be mentioned. Georgetown has as much acheievement as clemson as do about 100 other teams that are not being mention , its insane
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The whole clemson thing has been totally annoying to me. Regardless of whether MU gets in and where they stand the fact the the name Clemson continues to roll off these dbags lips is vomi inducing. My goodness, take illinois, or illinois state or belmont or houston or any other bubble team before clemson. My good ness they went 6-12 in the acc, read that agin they lost twice as many games as they won. They did nothing all season long and its a slap in the face of all bubke teams and is beyond reason or onjectivity that they even be mentioned. Georgetown has as much acheievement as clemson as do about 100 other teams that are not being mention , its insane
I heard they have a satellite campus in Bristol now.
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Winning would help, and obviously I'll cheer any Marquette success. Right now I feel like we're ahead of schedule, so I'm not stressing too much about this postseason. Hoping for the Big East Title, then as deep a NCAA run as we can muster.
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Any chance MU gets selected to play in Orlando? I will be there during that time and would love to head to the games...
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Winning would help, and obviously I'll cheer any Marquette success. Right now I feel like we're ahead of schedule, so I'm not stressing too much about this postseason. Hoping for the Big East Title, then as deep a NCAA run as we can muster.
So u wouldnt feel twinge or even take a deep breath if mu's name wasnt mentioned on sunday evening?
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Any chance MU gets selected to play in Orlando? I will be there during that time and would love to head to the games...
Agree, I am there for a conference as well. Odds are very slim as it's a Thursday / Sat location and MU is hosting those days so they try to avoid that conflict I have heard.
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I heard they have a satellite campus in Bristol now.
They lost in ACC tourney today, that should be the large nail in their bubble
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So u wouldnt feel twinge or even take a deep breath if mu's name wasnt mentioned on sunday evening?
He meant we are ahead of schedule because he expects we will hear our named called Sunday.
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If all the bubble teams lose, SOMEONE still has to be selected.
AND they have to have something to talk about. Gets pretty boring if they tell the truth and only discuss 4-5 teams for a week. But realistically, that's probably what it's down to.
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So u wouldnt feel twinge or even take a deep breath if mu's name wasnt mentioned on sunday evening?
In order for that to happen 5/9 of the remaining conferences that have the potential to produce an at large bid would have to have a bid stealer. Even then, I think our name still gets called. So if that happens I will consider it God's will that we don't make the tournament and have to live with that. Marquette has put together a resume worthy of making the field.
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Both Greenberg and Jay Williams STILL have Syracuse in after the loss. See video on espn.com
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/
Using Strength of Record as the best statistical correllation with Selection Committee choices in the past, this author computes that MU has an 88.6% chance of making the tournament, only behind Wake Forest and Xavier among bubble teams.
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And model that has Wake and X as more deserving is a crap model.
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Syracuse is done
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Both Greenberg and Jay Williams STILL have Syracuse in after the loss. See video on espn.com
As they should. Losing to Miami on a neutral court is not a bad loss. You shouldn't move down (and you don't) for a good loss. However, this means they are out of chances to improve their resume. If teams like Rhode island and Kansas state win in their tournaments, then cuse will move down.
Syracuse is done
Only if the teams below them win.
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And model that has Wake and X as more deserving is a crap model.
agreed.
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Syracuse is done
Couldn't happen to a nicer group of guys lol
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As they should. Losing to Miami on a neutral court is not a bad loss. You shouldn't move down (and you don't) for a good loss. However, this means they are out of chances to improve their resume. If teams like Rhode island and Kansas state win in their tournaments, then cuse will move down.
Only if the teams below them win.
I agree that likely Syracuse is in, but the only objective measure that supports them being in is top 50 wins. They will set a new record for highest RPI (currently 84) and they are 47 in Kenpom. That Kenpom rating is behind a lot of teams that also beat them in RPI that are also on the bubble.
They are certainly going to be an interesting team to discuss in the selection committee. Personally, I think they should be out, but I'm hard pressed to find clear teams to replace them (Vanderbilt comes to mind).
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Jay Bills on Mike & Mike right now:
"Yeah I think Syracuse is going to make it, there are not enough teams on the bubble for them to miss the tourney. They have 6 top 50 wins, and if there was one thing the committee showed us last year, it's that top 50 wins matter. Syracuse has a cushion of about 4-5 teams behind them."
:o
We should be a 9 seed at least then.
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Buzz and Company helped us out by beating Wake Forest
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Syracuse is done
Now Boeheim can get out of Greensboro (to be fair, he has a point!)
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Syracuse is done
They are in
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CBS Sports thinks Cuse is done.
....also, they're 2-11 away from the Carrier Dome!?
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-wake-forest-in-for-nervous-selection-sunday/
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How accurate is Palm vs Lunardi generally? Palm still does not seem very high on us and if we lose today surely will be saying we will be "sweating it out". With all this love of top 50 wins I wanna feel confident for Sunday but too much reading has me nervous
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CBS Sports thinks Cuse is done.
....also, they're 2-11 away from the Carrier Dome!?
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-wake-forest-in-for-nervous-selection-sunday/
Bit of an overstatement. Palm said that they "could" use a run in the ACC Tournament. I think they're playing in Dayton.
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Now Boeheim can get out of Greensboro (to be fair, he has a point!)
They weren't there to begin with.
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How accurate is Palm vs Lunardi generally? Palm still does not seem very high on us and if we lose today surely will be saying we will be "sweating it out". With all this love of top 50 wins I wanna feel confident for Sunday but too much reading has me nervous
If you want to be nervous, be nervous about whether we go to Dayton or not.
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How accurate is Palm vs Lunardi generally? Palm still does not seem very high on us and if we lose today surely will be saying we will be "sweating it out". With all this love of top 50 wins I wanna feel confident for Sunday but too much reading has me nervous
I believe Palm is usually on the low side of accuracy when compared with others. Lunardi is generally the best (at least of the bracket forecasters with the most pub).
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I believe Palm is usually on the low side of accuracy when compared with others. Lunardi is generally the best (at least of the bracket forecasters with the most pub).
I saw someone post Palm is in the 60s as far as accuracy (I think out of 81). I believe this is over the last five years, so it is fair to judge him. Lunardi was around 27.
I saw another post that had the most accurate people had us around a 9 a week ago.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/)
88.6% chance for Marquette.
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Lets just get a few W's and hope other teams lose. We are back baby
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Lets just get a few W's and hope other teams lose. We are back baby
So we have to beat Seton Hall and Villanova and hope other teams lose...for a 6 seed?
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Man, can't believe some of you guys are still up in arms about this. A tiny part of me will be worried about Dayton if we lose today. But I think we are SAFELY in the field. Like at least a dozen teams behind us and the cutline.
I think a loss today and we're a 9 or 10. A win today, and loss tomorrow, we're an 8 or 9.
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Lets just get a few W's and hope other teams lose
FIFY
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Why is ok state such a lock?
Minimal wins. Lots of loses with chances to get big wins.
That resume is so bland. And most have them as a 7 seedish
And they make us look like the best defense in nation.
Can't guard a lick
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How accurate is Palm vs Lunardi generally? Palm still does not seem very high on us and if we lose today surely will be saying we will be "sweating it out". With all this love of top 50 wins I wanna feel confident for Sunday but too much reading has me nervous
Palm emphasizes RPI and has said that until the committee shows that it is willing to move away from it, he will continue to use it. Hence why he is low on Syracuse and was low on MU throughout February.
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Why is ok state such a lock?
Minimal wins. Lots of loses with chances to get big wins.
That resume is so bland. And most have them as a 7 seedish
And they make us look like the best defense in nation.
Can't guard a lick
They would be an intriguing matchup for us.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/)
88.6% chance for Marquette.
This is possibly the most stupid article i have ever seen in regards to bubble teams etc. i could not be any more worthless
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i could not be any more worthless
Don't sell yourself short, Judge. You're a tremendous slouch.
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i could not be any more worthless
Truer words, rarely spoken. It is good that you can own it.
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Illinois about to lose. Groce probably on his way out too.
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Illinois off of the bubble.
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Palm also puts a big emphasis on non conference SOS......he talks about it a lot
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Nobody can be perfect predicting this stuff, especially the last few at-larges, because the committees do not think the same way each year. Lunardi, for example, may get the last couple teams wrong because he is basing his projections on what the average committee has done in the past, but who can really predict how they are going to select the teams in any one year? If the committee decides to think that our wins over Creighton and Xavier aren't real top 50 wins because those teams weren't really top 50 teams because of injuries at the time we played them, then we may move down the ladder. I know traditionally committees haven't acted that way in the past, but especially the past few years it seems they include a team or two or exclude a team or two that surprises everyone.
Don't get me wrong, I'm pretty confident we are in, but I'll always want one more win to be sure.
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TCU vs KANSAS BIG FOR US
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TCU vs KANSAS BIG FOR US
Not really
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TCU vs KANSAS BIG FOR US
Define big. TCU is not getting an at large. Its big in the sense that it would make stealing a bid in the Big 12 a lot easier. But you don't have to worry about TCU making the tournament except as an auto-bid.
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Ya A10, BIG, and American are the places that scare me
Rooting for all the #1 seeds
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Define big. TCU is not getting an at large. Its big in the sense that it would make stealing a bid in the Big 12 a lot easier. But you don't have to worry about TCU making the tournament except as an auto-bid.
If they beat the Number 1 team?? I bet they show back up real quick in the at large discussion if they win right here.
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If they beat the Number 1 team?? I bet they show back up real quick in the at large discussion if they win right here.
Doubt it. 6-12 teams with 15 losses don't make the tournament.
Does look like they're gonna win though.
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If they beat the Number 1 team?? I bet they show back up real quick in the at large discussion if they win right here.
No they won't.
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This stinks because it puts them only 2 games away from a bid theft. Though, we should always trust in Jamie Dixon losing in March.
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This is going to get real dicey for MU is someone not named Baylor wins the B12 now, and if someone like IU or Iowa wins the B10.
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This is going to get real dicey for MU is someone not named Baylor wins the B12 now, and if someone like IU or Iowa wins the B10.
Yeah like if West Virgina, #11 in the country wins the B12, MU is screwed
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This is going to get real dicey for MU is someone not named Baylor wins the B12 now, and if someone like IU or Iowa wins the B10.
Huh? ISU and WVU can both win it
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This is going to get real dicey for MU is someone not named Baylor wins the B12 now, and if someone like IU or Iowa wins the B10.
TCU ain't winning the Big 12. Indiana is awful and Iowa is a one man team. Everything's fine.
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This is going to get real dicey for MU is someone not named Baylor wins the B12 now, and if someone like IU or Iowa wins the B10.
What? Iowa St and WVU are firmly in the tourney.
Stop hyperventilating.
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What? Iowa St and WVU are firmly in the tourney.
Stop hyperventilating.
I know, but I meant if one of the teams that is already in doesn't win it...like Texas Tech or something. Or if Cal wins the Pac. Anything can happen..
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This is going to get real dicey for MU is someone not named Baylor wins the B12 now, and if someone like IU or Iowa wins the B10.
You mean like West Virginia or Iowa State?
There are three bid thieves in the Big 12. There are also three locks. My money is on one of the locks to win. But it certainly does warrant watching.
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I know, but I meant if one of the teams that is already in doesn't win it...like Texas Tech or something. Or if Cal wins the Pac. Anything can happen..
Well Texas Tech lost yesterday, so I wouldn't count on that one.
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I know, but I meant if one of the teams that is already in doesn't win it...like Texas Tech or something. Or if Cal wins the Pac. Anything can happen..
Sure, but it is not very likely. But, if you want to work yourself into a tizzy the next few days on Scoop, go for it.
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You mean like West Virginia or Iowa State?
There are three bid thieves in the Big 12. There are also three locks. My money is on one of the locks to win. But it certainly does warrant watching.
Closer to 4 locks (think OK state is in) and 2 thieves, 1 of which is Texas (really bad). TCU is the only one to be concerned about IMO.
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Closer to 4 locks (think OK state is in) and 2 thieves, 1 of which is Texas (really bad). TCU is the only one to be concerned about IMO.
Kansas State
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Really need baylor to beat KSU
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Really need baylor to beat KSU
No we don't. But it would be better than the alternative, I guess.
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Kansas State
you right. Although they could sneak in with a win over Baylor, regardless of big12 winning title.
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Hey, we just lost....no more games until we find out our status Sunday.
So I'm taking a breather and letting time tell me if I need to tense up for Sunday's announcement.
Feeling good about getting in. I do wonder about our seed...but even that I'm going to shelve until later Saturday.
Take it all in fellow scoopers...the whole regular season is over and we are a success in my book.
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you right. Although they could sneak in with a win over Baylor, regardless of big12 winning title.
Maybe sneak in to the field. But they would need to beat west Virginia to get past us.
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Today's performance was not something the committee will be anxious to cleave on to.
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Today's performance was not something the committee will be anxious to cleave on to.
Do you have your crow ready for when we make the tourney?
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Do you have your crow ready for when we make the tourney?
He said we had to go 4-0 to finish the season and win a BET game to get in.
There isn't much he says that shouldn't be taken with 1 to 2 lbs of salt.
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Do you have your crow ready for when we make the tourney?
I have the seasonings ready.
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If anyone thinks we've seem bad officiating, check out Fresno State and New Mexico. Technicals, jump ball called on a free throw attempt, FSU had one foul out with about 12 to play and as a team has 22 fouls to 16 made baskets. Just awful officiating.
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Do you have your crow ready for when we make the tourney?
I don't know if we will be in the tourney or not, but if we don't make it in the crow you eat will be a lot worse than the crow of those who said we are out.
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I don't know if we will be in the tourney or not, but if we don't make it in the crow you eat will be a lot worse than the crow of those who said we are out.
Except one side has provided tangible facts and evidence, the other just throwing sh** at a wall with no idea what they're talking about.
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We rooting for Butler or X? No clue as to how effects RPI, but don't want X taking our possible seed?
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Except one side has provided tangible facts and evidence, the other just throwing sh** at a wall with no idea what they're talking about.
JJJJJ....you do a great job with all of this thank you. That being said...tangible evidence and facts aren't always the be all end all..there have been many examples through the years of leaving teams out that seemed obvious they were in. Or like last year...all the tangible facts and evidence said no way was Cuse getting in..yet, they did. It's just when a human element is involved(like the committee), you can NEVER be 100% sure what they may or may not do.
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JJJJJ....you do a great job with all of this thank you. That being said...tangible evidence and facts aren't always the be all end all..there have been many examples through the years of leaving teams out that seemed obvious they were in. Or like last year...all the tangible facts and evidence said no way was Cuse getting in..yet, they did. It's just when a human element is involved(like the committee), you can NEVER be 100% sure what they may or may not do.
[/quote
Totally fair argument.
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We rooting for Butler or X? No clue as to how effects RPI, but don't want X taking our possible seed?
At this point we should pretty much be rooting for the higher seeded teams in all P6 tournaments except for something like this Indiana Iowa game where we would prefer an Indiana win.
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JJJJJ....you do a great job with all of this thank you. That being said...tangible evidence and facts aren't always the be all end all..there have been many examples through the years of leaving teams out that seemed obvious they were in. Or like last year...all the tangible facts and evidence said no way was Cuse getting in..yet, they did. It's just when a human element is involved(like the committee), you can NEVER be 100% sure what they may or may not do.
I think people have responded to this comment from you at least 30 times in the past couple weeks. I have nothing else to say.
Bite your nails until our name is called on Sunday. I don't know what else to tell you.
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At this point we should pretty much be rooting for the higher seeded teams in all P6 tournaments except for something like this Indiana Iowa game where we would prefer an Indiana win.
Yeah, Cal just beat Utah, don't like that. They could be a stealer if they beat Oregon next.
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Cal wins.. Michigan wins... Tcu wins... Georgia wins...
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Cal wins.. Michigan wins... Tcu wins... Georgia wins...
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JJJJJ....you do a great job with all of this thank you. That being said...tangible evidence and facts aren't always the be all end all..there have been many examples through the years of leaving teams out that seemed obvious they were in. Or like last year...all the tangible facts and evidence said no way was Cuse getting in..yet, they did. It's just when a human element is involved(like the committee), you can NEVER be 100% sure what they may or may not do.
You keep citing Cuse as your example, but you keep mentioning many examples.
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Yeah, Cal just beat Utah, don't like that. They could be a stealer if they beat Oregon next.
By that logic, Utah could have also been a bid stealer if they had won.
Cal will have to win the PAC 12 tournament to get a higher seed than us.
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Lunardi has us as a 10 playing miami which i think could potentially be a bad matchup for us
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I think it is safe to say at this point that Iowa has no chance in hell they get an at-large bid.
On the other side, Indiana has a nice path to win the B10 and are apparently playing well again.
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You keep citing Cuse as your example, but you keep mentioning many examples.
And Cuse isn't a very good example. Who deserved to be in over them? They had a bad RPI but the rest of their resume was tournament worthy. An early signal that the committee was going away from RPI.
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Lunardi has us as a 10 playing miami which i think could potentially be a bad matchup for us
I don't believe that has been updated since this am.
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And Cuse isn't a very good example. Who deserved to be in over them? They had a bad RPI but the rest of their resume was tournament worthy. An early signal that the committee was going away from RPI.
Normally they wouldn't have made it either. They benefited from both Louisville and SMU being ineligible to play in the tournament.
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Normally they wouldn't have made it either. They benefited from both Louisville and SMU being ineligible to play in the tournament.
Well they weren't in the first four, so more like Tulsa and Wichita wouldn't have made it.
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Well they weren't in the first four, so more like Tulsa and Wichita wouldn't have made it.
I had completely forgot they weren't even in the first four. Yeah, that one still makes no sense.
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I don't think I am so much worried about getting in, it's being in Dayton i want no part of.
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Lunardi was just on my TV screen giving excuses for why a 15-loss team may make the tourney... "teams now play 31, 32 games before we even get to the conference tourney"... of course, teams CAN'T play 32. SMH, bad news.
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Does Xavier/Butler matter to us? Butler winning keeps X behind us, but an X win could help legitimize our wins against them.
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Does Xavier/Butler matter to us? Butler winning keeps X behind us, but an X win could help legitimize our wins against them.
We want Xavier to win for the reasons cited. they just did.
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X may have just taken our bid. These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional
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X wins. Don't need them to win another to jump us.
Announcers said Butler has never won a BE tournament game. Can't believe that.
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X may have just taken our bid. These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional
We swept them by an average margin of 15.5 pts. We have double the number of top 50 wins as they do. We be fine.
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X may have just taken our bid. These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional
Ha, you are perpetually worried about our bid.
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I am not a fan of the guy who makes our schedule. We really needed that 31st game. Would have had 20 wins and been in a little better position. I don't buy the excuses. A good opponent could have been found.
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X may have just taken our bid. These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional
Get a grip. If X just stole a bid it very likely wasn't ours.
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Get a grip. If X just stole a bid it very likely wasn't ours.
Lunardi just said X is in and will probably jump them to next four byes, same category as MU.
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Get a grip. If X just stole a bid it very likely wasn't ours.
If I were syracuse though, I'd be worried about X winning. X just likely leap-frogged them.
X would need to win the BE tournament to leap-frog us.
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Lunardi just said X is in and will probably jump them to next four byes, same category as MU.
Got it. Not the same as stealing our bid though.
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Rooting for Creighton in this next one.
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Lunardi just said X is in and will probably jump them to next four byes, same category as MU.
That is a good data point. Now we need Creighton to edge Providence. Looking for the teams we beat to do well.
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X may have just taken our bid. These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional
Sigh.
X winning is not ideal true. But they are not the ones we need to worry about. Again, making the tournament is not about outrunning the bear. It is about outrunning your slowest friend. The slowest friend we need to beat out is the teams in the First Four Out. As of this morning, that was Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa, and Illinois. What do three of those teams have in common? They already lost in their conference tournament meaning they can't play themselves in anymore. If Baylor completes the sweep and takes out Kansas State, the entire first four out will be stuck on the wrong side of the bubble. That means that the Next Four Out will be the ones that have to rise up and win enough games to pass Marquette. As of this morning, that group was Houston, California, Georgia, and Clemson. Clemson is already dead. Houston doesn't play in a good enough conference to win their way in without getting an auto-bid. Cal would have to beat Oregon and even then they would likely need to win one more to pass Marquette....which would make them an auto-bid. And Georgia lost to Marquette head to head. They could theoretically pass Marquette but it would be close and that's a huge advantage in our corner.
So again, barring a crap ton of bid thieves.....7 is max possible at this point (and 1 of those 7 assumes MTSU would even get an at large if they lose)....Marquette is still in the tournament.
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So if X was one of the last four in, and have moved from that spot...someone has to take their spot..Ugh, this is why I wanted MU to get that #3 seed so badly..matchups were so much better in that half of the bracket. I would have loved their chances to get to saturday night. :(
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I am not a fan of the guy who makes our schedule. We really needed that 31st game. Would have had 20 wins and been in a little better position. I don't buy the excuses. A good opponent could have been found.
It would have been against a low major that would have hurt our RPI. Total wins no matta.
Besides, you think Illinois is getting in over us and they only have 17 wins.
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Sigh.
X winning is not ideal true. But they are not the ones we need to worry about. Again, making the tournament is not about outrunning the bear. It is about outrunning your slowest friend. The slowest friend we need to beat out is the teams in the First Four Out. As of this morning, that was Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa, and Illinois. What do three of those teams have in common? They already lost in their conference tournament meaning they can't play themselves in anymore. If Baylor completes the sweep and takes out Kansas State, the entire first four out will be stuck on the wrong side of the bubble. That means that the Next Four Out will be the ones that have to rise up and win enough games to pass Marquette. As of this morning, that group was Houston, California, Georgia, and Clemson. Clemson is already dead. Houston doesn't play in a good enough conference to win their way in without getting an auto-bid. Cal would have to beat Oregon and even then they would likely need to win one more to pass Marquette....which would make them an auto-bid. And Georgia lost to Marquette head to head. They could theoretically pass Marquette but it would be close and that's a huge advantage in our corner.
So again, barring a crap ton of bid thieves.....7 is max possible at this point (and 1 of those 7 assumes MTSU would even get an at large if they lose)....Marquette is still in the tournament.
In the meantime we want Creighton to beat Providence.
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In the meantime we want Creighton to beat Providence.
Correct.
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Got it. Not the same as stealing our bid though.
X loses and they are probably out
Now X is in first byes. They win again tomorrow, they seal first bye and no Dayton.
With MU loss and X doing above, puts MU in danger of playing in Dayton, not losing bid.
Root for Creighton next. Providence still in first bye right now.
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X may have just taken our bid. These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional
No, you are delusional. Please list off the 68 teams that will make it instead. K thanks.
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For those who think we still won't make it, care to make a bet?
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No, you are delusional. Please list off the 68 teams that will make it instead. K thanks.
Jamil, serious question, if that win moved Xavier off the "last four in" and in Dayton...someone needs to slip down and replace them..What if that is MU?? How close is MU to falling into Dayton, ASSUMING they aren't already there??
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For those who think we still won't make it, care to make a bet?
After this Xavier win I am in the make it camp.
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Jamil, serious question, if that win moved Xavier off the "last four in" and in Dayton...someone needs to slip down and replace them..What if that is MU?? How close is MU to falling into Dayton, ASSUMING they aren't already there??
What if that ISN'T MU??
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After this Xavier win I am in the make it camp.
Wait. You are willing to bet that MU doesn't make it?
Because I will make a paypal account right now to make an actual bet with you.
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Jamil, serious question, if that win moved Xavier off the "last four in" and in Dayton...someone needs to slip down and replace them..What if that is MU?? How close is MU to falling into Dayton, ASSUMING they aren't already there??
Check my last post in the seed thread. We are still one spot ahead of X, per lunardi who by the way is lower on us than most bracketologists. Our average seed is 9.6 and Fox and SI have us as an 8 seed.
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Jamil, serious question, if that win moved Xavier off the "last four in" and in Dayton...someone needs to slip down and replace them..What if that is MU?? How close is MU to falling into Dayton, ASSUMING they aren't already there??
Without knowing who Lunardis last 4 byes are, thats hard to say. We'll find out tomorrow. But they're not moving ahead of a team that swept them.
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What if that ISN'T MU??
I'm hoping like hell it's not. Somehow I feel like you'd be okay with them in Dayton. To each their own.
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What if that ISN'T MU??
Then it's Providence, Vandy or USC per Lunardi.
USC has UCLA tonight I believe, and of course PU/CU. Vandy destroyed TAM, but we beat Vandy already.
Root for UCLA and CU and wake up tomorrow happy campers for now.
Most believe we get bid, but now avoid play in game. Just wish we won today and it would be moot point, but what fun is that.......
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Without knowing who Lunardis last 4 byes are, thats hard to say. We'll find out tomorrow. But they're not moving ahead of a team that swept them.
Ask and you shall receive...
Joe LunardiVerified account @ESPNLunardi 9m9 minutes ago
Latest bubble: LAST BYES Providence, Marquette, Xavier, Vandy; LAST IN Southern Cal, Syracuse, Wake Forest,... http://es.pn/2mNtqVD
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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Jamil, serious question, if that win moved Xavier off the "last four in" and in Dayton...someone needs to slip down and replace them..What if that is MU?? How close is MU to falling into Dayton, ASSUMING they aren't already there??
But it wasn't. Lunardi revealed his updated bracket on TV just now. He said Marquette was his 7th team from the bubble. Meaning we were the 2nd highest of the Last Four Byes.
The reason we weren't freaking out is because we've studied the bubble and realized that there were still at least a couple teams between us and Dayton.
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Ask and you shall receive...
Joe LunardiVerified account @ESPNLunardi 9m9 minutes ago
Latest bubble: LAST BYES Providence, Marquette, Xavier, Vandy; LAST IN Southern Cal, Syracuse, Wake Forest,... http://es.pn/2mNtqVD
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
Well there ya go.
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I'm hoping like hell it's not. Somehow I feel like you'd be okay with them in Dayton. To each their own.
I'm mean, I'd be ok no matter what Marquette's record is. It doesn't really affect me like that. But again, not getting a bye doesn't mean you didn't make the tournament. You can think that if you want to, but its not accurate.
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Ask and you shall receive...
Joe LunardiVerified account @ESPNLunardi 9m9 minutes ago
Latest bubble: LAST BYES Providence, Marquette, Xavier, Vandy; LAST IN Southern Cal, Syracuse, Wake Forest,... http://es.pn/2mNtqVD
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
Excellent. Go Creighton........thanks
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I'm hoping like hell it's not. Somehow I feel like you'd be okay with them in Dayton. To each their own.
Oh no. I would much prefer them not to be in Dayton.
I just don't get your constant worry. The evidence as it stands now SUGGESTS that they won't be in Dayton. But you are right. It's ultimately up to the committee and they may feel differently. But again, if that's where you ultimately land logically, and there is nothing you can do about it, why let it ruin your weekend?
Tomorrow night, I am having dinner with one of my kids. On Saturday, I have some errands to run in the morning, but my wife has agreed to make her lasagna for dinner- and its damn good. I have a nice bottle of Merlot ready and waiting. Maybe I will make a desert of some type to go with it.
So I will worry about Marquette on Sunday afternoon. No reason to do it now.
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Oh no. I would much prefer them not to be in Dayton.
I just don't get your constant worry. The evidence as it stands now SUGGESTS that they won't be in Dayton. But you are right. It's ultimately up to the committee and they may feel differently. But again, if that's where you ultimately land logically, and there is nothing you can do about it, why let it ruin your weekend?
Tomorrow night, I am having dinner with one of my kids. On Saturday, I have some errands to run in the morning, but my wife has agreed to make her lasagna for dinner- and its damn good. I have a nice bottle of Merlot ready and waiting. Maybe I will make a desert of some type to go with it.
So I will worry about Marquette on Sunday afternoon. No reason to do it now.
Tiramisu?
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Tiramisu?
Nah. I don't really like it and it's too hard to make. I'm thinking more of a chocolate hazelnut mousse that I haven't made in awhile.
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Well there ya go.
If the season ended today, we'd be in. Problem is, bubble teams are still playing, and their resumes are getting better. Marquette's is not.
Providence, Xavier, Vandy; Southern Cal, Rhode Island, Kansas St, Houston, Cal; Georgia, and TCU are still alive.
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Tiramisu?
Address?
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Maybe I will make a desert of some type to go with it.
Wow. Seems like a big task. How much sand will this take?
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We swept them by an average margin of 15.5 pts. We have double the number of top 50 wins as they do. We be fine.
Hey quit being so delusional.
::)
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If the season ended today, we'd be in. Problem is, bubble teams are still playing, and their resumes are getting better. Marquette's is not.
Providence, Xavier, Vandy; Southern Cal, Rhode Island, Kansas St, Houston, Cal; Georgia, and TCU are still alive.
I'm not worried about any of those teams you just listed besides PC. And I'm not worried about PC, just have a hard time seeing us being seeded above them. But maybe their 2 sub 200 losses make up for their 2 one posession wins over us.
The reat of those teams? We're comfortably ahead of them.
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If the season ended today, we'd be in. Problem is, bubble teams are still playing, and their resumes are getting better. Marquette's is not.
Providence, Xavier, Vandy; Southern Cal, Rhode Island, Kansas St, Houston, Cal; Georgia, and TCU are still alive.
This is true. They are the teams we have to keep an eye on....minus TCU, Cal, Houston, and Georgia. Those teams are so far behind us at this point that they would need to win their conference tournaments in order to pass us....at which point they would become an auto-bid and then the point becomes moot.
People forget, there is very little you can do to improve and damage your resume this time of year. If Baylor beats Kansas State, then all we have to worry about is a bid thief bonanza.
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This is true. They are the teams we have to keep an eye on....minus TCU, Cal, Houston, and Georgia. Those teams are so far behind us at this point that they would need to win their conference tournaments in order to pass us....at which point they would become an auto-bid and then the point becomes moot.
People forget, there is very little you can do to improve and damage your resume this time of year. If Baylor beats Kansas State, then all we have to worry about is a bid thief bonanza.
Tell that to Syracuse with McNamara. Went from being OUT before the BE tourney that year..won the thing and got a 6 seed.
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nm
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Without knowing who Lunardis last 4 byes are, thats hard to say. We'll find out tomorrow. But they're not moving ahead of a team that swept them.
So.... Butler will be ahead of Villanova? Not sure about the credibility of that particular metric. Depends on the tourney, but right now most "experts" had us ahead of Providence, and they swept us.
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Wow. Seems like a big task. How much sand will this take?
(http://i.imgur.com/DoLSFyg.gif)
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Wait. You are willing to bet that MU doesn't make it?
Because I will make a paypal account right now to make an actual bet with you.
NO I am saying I am in the camp that says MU WILL make it . I am flip flopping with the course of events.
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So.... Butler will be ahead of Villanova? Not sure about the credibility of that particular metric. Depends on the tourney, but right now most "experts" had us ahead of Providence, and they swept us.
Slightly different scenario...look, all I was saying is that I think MUs resume is better than all those teams listed, except for maybe PC. I like our resume more than theirs, but they did in fact sweep us, so it's not very difficult to see them being about us on the S curve.
The rest have very little case to be ahead of MU.
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Starting to get a little worried probably will be on the bubble going into sunday
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Starting to get a little worried probably will be on the bubble going into sunday
We are ok. Xavier helped us tonight. There will be some surprises along the way but I think for now we are eking our way in. Creighton is doing a good job tonight hopefully they keep it up. McDermott is showing he is a very good coach.
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Baylor is a really, really bad top 10 team.
Said it all year.
And it hurts us tonight
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Baylor is a really, really bad top 10 team.
Said it all year.
And it hurts us tonight
Hopefully baylor can pull it out need some bubble teams to lose
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NO I am saying I am in the camp that says MU WILL make it . I am flip flopping with the course of events.
Haha ok.
At the end of all your posts. Please just state
IN or OUT so I can keep up! ;)
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if UVA losses tonight they would be a tough 6 or 7 seed
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Haha ok.
At the end of all your posts. Please just state
IN or OUT so I can keep up! ;)
We need this Creighton win over Providence
IN
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Man, Baylor played great defense for 29 seconds and Kansas State just puts in a circus shot to stop the Baylor run. K State up 5, 1 minute, Wildcat ball.
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if UVA losses tonight they would be a tough 6 or 7 seed
They are really not a very good team. Any team that struggles to score 60 doesn't scare me at all. Even when we play our worst offensive games we can score 65 in our sleep.
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Man, Baylor played great defense for 29 seconds and Kansas State just puts in a circus shot to stop the Baylor run. K State up 5, 1 minute, Wildcat ball.
Not real happy about his. Were is K State in pecking order?
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Not real happy about his. Were is K State in pecking order?
Well behind us. Even with this win. If they win against West Virigina tomorrow they might get past us.
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So we're big West Virginia fans tomorrow then? And Iowa State?
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Well behind us. Even with this win. If they win against West Virigina tomorrow they might get past us.
Seems like they have some quality wins on their resume so maybe the jump the likes of Illinois State at least tonight. Huggy Bear better get his act together tomorrow.
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deaerve a tourney in their careers
Rocky do us all a favor. Please.
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deaerve a tourney in their careers
You're a Grade A Jack-Wagon.
These 22 year olds don't deserve this in their careers?
Sure maybe some games they didn't deserve to win. But why be such a sad person all the time? Why can't Luke and jjj make the tourney? Because some lonely dude on a MU site that likes sand says so?
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers
You aren't very intelligent.
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All the BET is showing is that the six teams behind Nova are going to beat each other up and that they are all tournament worthy....7 it shall be.
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers
Luke, JJJ, Duane and Reinhardt are giving it everything they have. They definitely deserve it and they have been playing like they want it. The team did not give up until the last second ticked off today.
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers
Put the bottle down and get some sleep.
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers
I went back and read your first 15 to 20 posts. Revealing. Good bye.
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10774;area=showposts;start=450
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Luke, JJJ, Duane and Reinhardt are giving it everything they have. They definitely deserve it and they have been playing like they want it. The team did not give up until the last second ticked off today.
Whoa. For the first time ever MUFNY I agree with you.... weird! Nice.
Creighton up 9 with 1:30 left. Keep it up you stupid blue air animals.
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Creighton had the look of a final four type team prior to the Maurice Watson imbroglio. Tonight they showed they could win a very classic Big East hard fought game.
I guess they will be playing Xavier next. Not sure who we are rooting for in that game. I think I will wait until I see a few brackets post today. My instinct is still Creighton.
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers
Not really.
Assuming Creighton can hold an 11 point lead with 1:36 left, than Marquette will likely finish with 7 or 8 teams between them and the bubble.
Of those 7-8, 3 are "sitting ducks" (Providence, Wake, Cuse) meaning they have already lost and will drop out before Marquette does. 1 (USC) will also become a sitting duck if UCLA takes care of business.
Of the remaining 4-5, 1 (MTSU) can't pass Marquette because they'll either be an auto-bid or in Dayton.
3 of the First Four Out (Illinois State, Iowa, and Illinois) are all sitting ducks. They can't pass Marquette.
Its still going to take 3-4 bid thieves for Marquette to be left out. And there's really only 6 conferences that could steal a bid from Marquette at this point.
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers
(http://www.ocm.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/tumblr_inline_o4bojpAHDH1qg2qcl_500.gif)
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Not really.
Assuming Creighton can hold an 11 point lead with 1:36 left, than Marquette will likely finish with 7 or 8 teams between them and the bubble.
Of those 7-8, 3 are "sitting ducks" (Providence, Wake, Cuse) meaning they have already lost and will drop out before Marquette does. 1 (USC) will also become a sitting duck if UCLA takes care of business.
Of the remaining 4-5, 1 (MTSU) can't pass Marquette because they'll either be an auto-bid or in Dayton.
3 of the First Four Out (Illinois State, Iowa, and Illinois) are all sitting ducks. They can't pass Marquette.
Its still going to take 3-4 bid thieves for Marquette to be left out. And there's really only 6 conferences that could steal a bid from Marquette at this point.
And even if that all happened....we'd still have a good chance.
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SI has us at 9 after our loss.
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Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers
You know... it's only funny when you don't actually believe what you type.
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CTD just locked us.
https://crashingthedance.com/selection
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Put this in the Seeding hread but frankly I'm not sure where to post these thoughts any more, so here goes...
SI's update has us as a 9 seed.
So after yesterday's "disaster". ESPN didn't move us at all. SI didn't move us at all. Palm moved us down one spot.
And just to illustrate how hard it is to move up the bubble. Kansas State's win over Baylor moved them up ONE spot in his bracket, from first team out to last team in. Even with a win today they won't be head of us, although they will also probably be safely in the field.
Modify message
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Put this in the Seeding hread but frankly I'm not sure where to post these thoughts any more, so here goes...
SI's update has us as a 9 seed.
So after yesterday's "disaster". ESPN didn't move us at all. SI didn't move us at all. Palm moved us down one spot.
And just to illustrate how hard it is to move up the bubble. Kansas State's win over Baylor moved them up ONE spot in his bracket, from first team out to last team in. Even with a win today they won't be head of us, although they will also probably be safely in the field.
Modify message
Yup. While I think there are some people who underestimate what the conference tournaments do, there are a whole lot of worriers who don't understand that conference tournaments aren't weighted 10x what we did in the regular season. Each game, regular season or conference tourney, is worth one game. Our win over Nova is worth more than a KState win over Baylor, no matter when it happened (unless one of the teams involved had an injury or departure and their results took a hit as a result...but that's not the case).
We're dancing.
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Yea, I remember being very worried in 2012 and 2013 that our poor conference tournament showing would drop us down to the 4/5 line.
Hell, in 2013 I didnt even think we had any chance for a 3 seed before the BE tournament let alone after it. But top flight wins matter. (Syracuse that year) I dont know where we land, I still personally think in the 10-11 range but I do think scoop tends to underseed ourselves.
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I think in 2010 we thought our Big East Tourney performance put us safely in, and we were the last or second last team in.
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I think in 2010 we thought our Big East Tourney performance put us safely in, and we were the last or second last team in.
Which actually kind of strengthens the point that we may put too much emphasis on the BE tourney.
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Which actually kind of strengthens the point that we may put too much emphasis on the BE tourney.
Absolutely. We tend to play up tournament results since it's our last chance to build a resume, or hurt it. If you look at some of these wins in the context of the full resume, then it really lowers the impact.
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Absolutely. We tend to play up tournament results since it's our last chance to build a resume, or hurt it. If you look at some of these wins in the context of the full resume, then it really lowers the impact.
Being so close to the cut line was one of the biggest factors in me starting to look at how much conference tournament games matter and becoming convinced they really don't mean squat unless you cut down nets. I don't think we were on the outside looking in and beating Providence and WVU put us over the top. We were in regardless, and didn't move an inch despite those games.
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In the first game of the season, a player's season 3P% swings wildly. If he makes his first it goes from 0 to 100%. If he then misses his second it goes from 100% to 50%. If he makes his next, it raises 16% to 66%.....by the end of the season, making a 3P shots is going to raise his season 3P% by like .001%.
Same applies to resumes. Its the end of the season. There's only so much 1 win can help you or 1 loss can hurt you. There is a much greater distance between teams than people realize.
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Lunardi has us as a 10 today, vs. 7 Oklahoma St.
Providence, MU, and Xavier are all last 4 byes (along with Vandy). No one from BEast playing in Dayton, with the conference getting 7 bids.
Nova 1
Butler 4
Creighton 7
Seton Hall 10
Providence 10
MU 10
Xavier 11
Things could change, but that would be a hell of a Selection Sunday for a 10 team conference.
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Dayton lost which is not great. SMU held on against ECU which is good.
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Dayton is garbage
Should be a bubble team
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Either Rhode Island, Davidson, or St. Bonneventure will be in the A10 Championship
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Dayton is garbage
Should be a bubble team
Looking at them led me to looking at VCU and I really do not get the VCU love (lunardi has them as a 9). 24-7 record, with their best wins at home vs MTSU and Dayton, and they lost to Fordham and Davidson. Their RPI is good but I am thoroughly unimpressed by their resume.
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Dayton lost which is not great. SMU held on against ECU which is good.
With SMU up 43-21 at the half, I didn't even check in on that game until the last minute. Was shocked when I turned it on to see it tied. Glad SMU pulled it out, need them or Cincy to win that league.
Elsewhere, Michigan takes out Purdue in overtime, good for our RPI.
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Michigan just beat Purdue
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Well the A10 is stealing a bid if VCU loses
Even tho that whole league sucks
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Well, we should be VCU fans.
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Whomever wins wouldn't change MU's seed, I suppose RI could move up past MU, but doubtful. They will be stealing the Cuse/Vanderbilt/USC bid.
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Whomever wins wouldn't change MU's seed, I suppose RI could move up past MU, but doubtful. They will be stealing the Cuse/Vanderbilt/USC bid.
It's not our bid I'm worried about.
It's knocking us to the play in game.
They better make Dayton or VCU play there
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MTSU wins. Next is the CUSA Championship. Would be big for them to win the tourney and keep CUSA a one-bid league.
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MTSU wins. Next is the CUSA Championship. Would be big for them to win the tourney and keep CUSA a one-bid league.
I don't think MTSU has any shot of moving past us. If they were to lose and still make the tournament, they'd be headed to Dayton, so I don't think CUSA matters much at all for us.
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Bucky v. Crean tonight. I'm always of the "anyone but wisconsin" school of thought but given that IU is a potential bid thief and wisconsin helps our RPI, does anyone feel different?
I'm cheering for the nuke
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Updated Bracketmatrix just came out.
http://bracketmatrix.com/ (http://bracketmatrix.com/)
Dropped two spots. Seton Hall and Michigan State jumped us. Now the #3 10 seed instead of the top 10 seed.
Teams behind us remain:
X (vs. Creighton)
PC (done)
Vandy (vs. Florida)
Wake (done)
Middle Tennessee (in conference championship tomorrow)
USC (done)
K State (vs. West Virginia)
Rhode Island (vs. St Bonny currently)
CUTLINE
Syracuse (done)
Illinois State (done)
Cal (vs. Oregon)
Iowa (done)
TCU (vs. Iowa State)
Illinois (done)
Georgia (about to be done vs. Kentucky)
Clemson (done)
Most of the teams on that list that aren't done are going to be done in a few hours.
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Can't believe I have to cheer for Creighton, Florida and West Virginia all on the same night...
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Can't believe I have to cheer for Creighton, Florida and West Virginia all on the same night...
Don't forget Wisconsin, they're the worst to root for :'(
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Dayton is garbage
Should be a bubble team
They will be better next year though.
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Can't believe I have to cheer for Creighton, Florida and West Virginia all on the same night...
Also for Deonte and Iowa State.
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More importantly I think, of all the updates done today only 2 have us out of the field. Those 2 are both computerized (Massey and Numberfire).
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Also for Deonte and Iowa State.
That ones easy, love Iowa St.
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Georgia loses to Kentucky. They are now done. No way they can pass us.
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BRACKET MATRIX HAS UPDATED!!! SOUND THE KLAXONS!!!
Marquette has moved behind both Michigan State and Seton Hall (to be expected), with seven at-large teams behind them.
Of those seven teams, four are still playing. Rhode Island, Kansas State, Xavier and Vanderbilt. Providence, USC and Wake Forest are not playing. Only one of the "first four out" is still playing. Cal.
Things are still looking just fine for a bid. Can still end up in Dayton with some upsets tonight however.
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They will be better next year though.
Not.
Even.
Close.
They lose 4 senior starters, and those 4 are the fourth highest scoring senior class in school history. Not only that, but I think there's a very real chance this is the year Archie Miller jumps ship. His alma mater, NC State, is open and he could probably get a blank check there. His team will take a massive step down next year with or without him, so now is the time to leave before his star tarnishes. The only way Dayton is even playing in Dayton next year is if they host a NIT game, and I'd bet they're on the outside of that tournament looking in.
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They will be better next year though.
Don't they have a ton of seniors including a senior who is projected to go in the second round?
EDIT: Brewcity, well done.
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Not.
Even.
Close.
They lose 4 senior starters, and those 4 are the fourth highest scoring senior class in school history. Not only that, but I think there's a very real chance this is the year Archie Miller jumps ship. His alma mater, NC State, is open and he could probably get a blank check there. His team will take a massive step down next year with or without him, so now is the time to leave before his star tarnishes. The only way Dayton is even playing in Dayton next year is if they host a NIT game, and I'd bet they're on the outside of that tournament looking in.
But, but, but, but....
KOSTAS!!
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I'd like to take a moment to say how much I wish Amir Coffey could have ended up in a Marquette uniform.
That is all.
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I'd like to take a moment to say how much I wish Amir Coffey could have ended up in a Marquette uniform.
That is all.
Noted.
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It's not our bid I'm worried about.
It's knocking us to the play in game.
They better make Dayton or VCU play there
Wouldn't a tea, that steals the A10 bid be behind us seedwise?
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In the first game of the season, a player's season 3P% swings wildly. If he makes his first it goes from 0 to 100%. If he then misses his second it goes from 100% to 50%. If he makes his next, it raises 16% to 66%.....by the end of the season, making a 3P shots is going to raise his season 3P% by like .001%.
Same applies to resumes. Its the end of the season. There's only so much 1 win can help you or 1 loss can hurt you. There is a much greater distance between teams than people realize.
Hmm, depends on how many shots you have taken. If you have for instance taken 30 shots, each is worth 3.3%
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I'd like to take a moment to say how much I wish Amir Coffey could have ended up in a Marquette uniform.
That is all.
I was keen on Coffee as well.
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Rhode Island wins. Don't think that matters much to us.
Michigan State loses. That is good for us.
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First time I have watched Minnesota, they are pretty good. Coffey looked great and that kid Lynch(?) was really good.
Only thing is they played like 6 players and the one kid hurt his leg and is on crutches, so must have bench issues.
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Wouldn't a tea, that steals the A10 bid be behind us seedwise?
Most likely, but then it pushes up the "last 4" since autobids won't play in the play-in games.
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Rhode Island wins. Don't think that matters much to us.
It actually does and here's why.
If Rhode Island wins the A10 tournament, they will then have an automatic bid and will not be going to Dayton. Since the other two A10 teams are basically assured of no Dayton (VCU and Dayton), that means that we are one step closer to possibly being in the First Four.
We want URI to lose. They are likely out if they lose, or at least an at-large behind Marquette.
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Absolutely. We tend to play up tournament results since it's our last chance to build a resume, or hurt it. If you look at some of these wins in the context of the full resume, then it really lowers the impact.
I don't know about everyone else but I play up the tournament because its a chance to win an important, prestigious tournament, which as a fan would make me very happy. The NCAA tournament is not the only thing there is in college basketball. I don't look at every single minute detail of every single thing we do thinking about how it will effect our NCAA tournament chances or seeding. I like to see us win, and the Big East tournament is the second biggest thing we do every year (the biggest in some recent years).
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Wouldn't a tea, that steals the A10 bid be behind us seedwise?
Nope because auto bids can't play in the Dayton "at large" play in games.
So they go ahead of us by default
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It actually does and here's why.
If Rhode Island wins the A10 tournament, they will then have an automatic bid and will not be going to Dayton. Since the other two A10 teams are basically assured of no Dayton (VCU and Dayton), that means that we are one step closer to possibly being in the First Four.
We want URI to lose. They are likely out if they lose, or at least an at-large behind Marquette.
Right. I meant it didn't matter that they won today. If they win tomorrow and lose on Sunday, they may be in the field but certainly behind Marquette. If they get the auto-bid, that obviously matters to us.
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It actually does and here's why.
If Rhode Island wins the A10 tournament, they will then have an automatic bid and will not be going to Dayton. Since the other two A10 teams are basically assured of no Dayton (VCU and Dayton), that means that we are one step closer to possibly being in the First Four.
We want URI to lose. They are likely out if they lose, or at least an at-large behind Marquette.
Yeah but either way whoever advances of RI, Davidson and St Bonnie's to play VCU(if they got there in the ship) is playing for that autobid.
So it doesn't matter much. Except if you think RI is the toughest match up vs VCU
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Alabama is going to advance to the SEC semifinals to play Kentucky. They are a potential bid-stealer, although I would bet a lot that they lose tomorrow. They are not a bubble team, and are out unless they win the auto-bid.
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Alabama is going to advance to the SEC semifinals to play Kentucky. They are a potential bid-stealer, although I would bet a lot that they lose tomorrow. They are not a bubble team, and are out unless they win the auto-bid.
South Carolina really isn't very good. I hope we get put up against them.
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Alabama is going to advance to the SEC semifinals to play Kentucky. They are a potential bid-stealer, although I would bet a lot that they lose tomorrow. They are not a bubble team, and are out unless they win the auto-bid.
I was lobbying about a year ago that we play Alabama. Wojo versus Avery would be fun.
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So far, no complaints:
Wisco beating Indiana
Florida beating Vandy
Cincy beating Tulsa
Iowa state beating TCU.
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So far, no complaints:
Wisco beating Indiana
Florida beating Vandy
Cincy beating Tulsa
Iowa state beating TCU.
Except vandy jumps us.
Even tho they suck.
Florida just let's them walk all over them
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Probably most importantly, VCU over George Mason with 2 minutes left.
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Except vandy jumps us.
Even tho they suck.
Florida just let's them walk all over them
Don't get ahead of yourself.
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Don't get ahead of yourself.
What, a tie game isn't one team walking all over another?
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What, a tie game isn't one team walking all over another?
Good point. My fault.
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Good point. My fault.
I don't get what's ur fault in that exchange.
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I don't get what's ur fault in that exchange.
Sarcasm both ways.
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Sarcasm both ways.
Ya I got it I missed that wades wasn't the first one you had replied too. My fault :)
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Except vandy jumps us.
Even tho they suck.
Florida just let's them walk all over them
Not convinced a 15 loss team (not to mention .500 SEC team) has any better ceiling than Dayton.
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Quite an ending to Nova-Hall.
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Great Nova game, Hart with a Vander against Davidson type shot.
Novas almost blew it at the line missing three front ends.
Seton Hall probably gets a 9/10 seed.
TCU getting killed. Wisky winning and Vandy up just abit.
Go West Va. tonight
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What, a tie game isn't one team walking all over another?
Nope but trailing all game to a team you've lost to twice already is
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Josh Hart is a beast.
Delgado is a beast. Also a baby. But a beastly baby
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Vandy and florida going to ot
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Kasey Hill a very comparable player to Derrick Wilson.
Awful offensively
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Good bubble day, breathe everybody. We are fine.
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Good bubble day, breathe everybody. We are fine.
That's no fun. Let's get some more inane freak outs.
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Good bubble day, breathe everybody. We are fine.
The Dayton loss was bad.
Cal and kstate would be too.
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Hill can't shoot, but at least he has some sweet mixtapes back in the day.
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The Dayton loss was bad.
Cal and kstate would be too.
When Cal and Kansas State get rolled tonight there will be nothing left to talk about.
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I hope we get Florida.
They suck.
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When Cal and Kansas State get rolled tonight there will be nothing left to talk about.
That's all I want.
Can't be playing in Dayton.
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So what's the impact of the Vandy win on us?
Question is posed to reasonable posters.
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So what's the impact of the Vandy win on us?
Question is posed to reasonable posters.
Makes our win against them more impressive especially on a neutral court. So long as they don't win the SEC tournament, I doubt a team with 15 losses will jump us especially one we beat.
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Not ideal, but I don't think it's the end of the world. As long as Cal and Kansas St lose, tonight will still probably be a net positive
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Makes our win against them more impressive especially on a neutral court. So long as they don't win the SEC tournament, I doubt a team with 15 losses will jump us especially one we beat.
Thinking along the same lines but wanted some other input.
Thanks.
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Need an x loss too
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Need an x loss too
Agreed but I feel that's more Dayton impact than about making the tourney.
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Agreed but I feel that's more Dayton impact than about making the tourney.
Dayton is my worry
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Well Creighton, Oregon and WVU have yet to show up
At least kstate is just as inept scoring
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Northwestern was down 7 early and switched it to be up 8 within 5 minutes. Lotta time left, Oregon and WV are good teams. Plus Kansas St sucks.
Creighton is sleepwalking though. The one time I cheer for them...
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Well Creighton, Oregon and WVU have yet to show up
At least kstate is just as inept scoring
Creighton is down 6, Oregon is tied, and WVU is down 5. Let the games play out. Lots of game to be played.
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Creighton is down 6, Oregon is tied, and WVU is down 5. Let the games play out. Lots of game to be played.
WVU isn't down 5 unless you're way ahead lol.
But they look like ass
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WVU isn't down 5 unless you're way ahead lol.
But they look like ass
They are losing 13-8 with 7:36 left in the first half. There are 28 minutes left in the game. They look bad, but so does their opponent. Lots of game left.
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They are losing 13-8 with 7:36 left in the first half. There are 28 minutes left in the game. They look bad, but so does their opponent. Lots of game left.
WVU simply can't score.
It's this way every time I watch.
This is awful basketball
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WVU simply can't score.
It's this way every time I watch.
This is awful basketball
They're top 15 in scoring. You must catch them at really bad times
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WVU simply can't score.
It's this way every time I watch.
This is awful basketball
Haven't watched this whole game, but watched a good bit of KSU's last one. The box score looks a lot like their last game and reeks of referee bias.
12-fouls to 4 in this one. (was 21-15 against Baylor).
Against Baylor they hacked like crazy and nothing was called. Baylor couldn't make a bucket for a long time because of it. Really seems the B12 refs are trying to ensure they get a 6th team in.
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They're top 15 in scoring. You must catch them at really bad times
No I watch them all the time.
They have no offense. If you make them shoot or put them to the line they are screwed.
Dependent on TOs.
It's why the flame out every year.
It's a wretched offensive team
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Creighton prevails.
I swear all week I've yet to see a kid hit a crucial 1 and 1
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Creighton wins, Oregon up and WVU making a run.
RE-LAX
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Creighton wins, Oregon up and WVU making a run.
RE-LAX
Nobody is panicked
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Nobody is panicked
(http://i.imgur.com/6p7ib3V.gif)
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Houston going to lose to UCONN.
WV down 3 with the ball 3 mins to do.
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No I watch them all the time.
They have no offense. If you make them shoot or put them to the line they are screwed.
Dependent on TOs.
It's why the flame out every year.
It's a wretched offensive team
Gotcha, they're a terrible half court offense team.
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WV up 1. K State ball. 10 seconds left.
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Gotcha, they're a terrible half court offense team.
And free throw shooting
Which is the theme of these tournies.
Another big miss
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Oregon beats Cal.
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WV escapes 51-50. Ugly game
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Oregon and WVU prevail.
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Great defense by WVU on the last possession. Survive with a 1 point victory.
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Goodbye bid stealers. Only one left in the A-10, we good.
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Well, Cal, KSU and Houston will not be passing us on the seed list.
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Goodbye bid stealers. Only one left in the A-10, we good.
Uconn on their home court if they get really miraculous
Also would be nice to just make sure Ole miss dies here
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Ole miss done.
Now just bama can cause trouble in SEC
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Uconn on their home court if they get really miraculous
Also would be nice to just make sure Ole miss dies here
Dead
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Uconn on their home court if they get really miraculous
Also would be nice to just make sure Ole miss dies here
I've pretty much penciled in UCONN to win the AAC for weeks. They're not good, but it's what UCONN does.
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Dead
IF HE DIES HE DIES
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I've pretty much penciled in UCONN to win the AAC for weeks. They're not good, but it's what UCONN does.
This one would be really crazy because of how bad they are.
Assuming SMU don't choke. It will be really hard to beat both cincy and smu
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Not a bubble game...but damn, Arizona is good. I don't want to play them.
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Not a bubble game...but damn, Arizona is good. I don't want to play them.
[/quot
UCLA is no slouch either. The Top 3 teams in PAC 12 are dangerous.
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And free throw shooting
FTs no matta.
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Bracket Matrix has yet to update but as of this morning, Marquette was the third 10 seed, 8 spots from the bubble. Behind them in order:
Xavier (Dead)
Providence (Dead)
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest (Dead)
Middle Tennessee State
USC (Dead)
Kansas State (Dead)
Rhode Island
Cutoff
Syracuse (Dead)
Illinois State (Dead)
California (Dead)
Iowa (Dead)
TCU (Dead)
Houston (Dead)
Illinois (Dead)
Georgia (Dead)
Clemson (Dead)
All but three teams behind us our dead. All three are in the field at the moment. One of them can't catch us because they only have a game against lowly Marshall. One is unlikely to catch us because instead of building their resume agaisnt Dayton, they will have to slum it with Davidson. The third, we own a 20+ point beatdown against. We no longer have to worry about beating out other at larges. Our only fear should be bid thieves. There are only 4 conferences left that can produce a bid thief. Honestly, I only think we will have 1 bid thief (A10) with a possibility of a 2nd (AAC). I don't think CUSA or the SEC will produce one (knock on wood).
All this to say, I'm feeling pretty safe at the moment. Committee could come out of left field....but we would be one of the bigger snubs in tournament history.
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Creighton strength definitely helping our cause. Our wins over them looking much better. Also it appears as if the wheels have stayed on Xavier Wagon which also helps our cause.
I have studied all the analysis prepared by our very studious posters on this site and feel pretty comfortable we are going to eke our way in .
All I care about is getting in the field. We have enough offense to play with anyone and the tournament is generally about hot shooting teams.
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Different sort of Bubble watch
http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/ (http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/)
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Different sort of Bubble watch
http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/ (http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/)
Glad MU not on it and Cuse is.
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Lunardi dropped MU to an 11 seed. Third last bye......
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Lunardi dropped MU to an 11 seed. Third last bye......
Yep
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology)
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Bracket Matrix has yet to update but as of this morning, Marquette was the third 10 seed, 8 spots from the bubble. Behind them in order:
Xavier (Dead)
Providence (Dead)
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest (Dead)
Middle Tennessee State
USC (Dead)
Kansas State (Dead)
Rhode Island
Cutoff
Syracuse (Dead)
Illinois State (Dead)
California (Dead)
Iowa (Dead)
TCU (Dead)
Houston (Dead)
Illinois (Dead)
Georgia (Dead)
Clemson (Dead)
All but three teams behind us our dead. All three are in the field at the moment. One of them can't catch us because they only have a game against lowly Marshall. One is unlikely to catch us because instead of building their resume agaisnt Dayton, they will have to slum it with Davidson. The third, we own a 20+ point beatdown against. We no longer have to worry about beating out other at larges. Our only fear should be bid thieves. There are only 4 conferences left that can produce a bid thief. Honestly, I only think we will have 1 bid thief (A10) with a possibility of a 2nd (AAC). I don't think CUSA or the SEC will produce one (knock on wood).
All this to say, I'm feeling pretty safe at the moment. Committee could come out of left field....but we would be one of the bigger snubs in tournament history.
Wow, TAMU, I've never seen such hubris!
(Sorry, Crash, I couldn't resist.)
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Interesting how the last four byes are Big East teams. ESPN bias?
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Interesting how the last four byes are Big East teams. ESPN bias?
Actually, I do think it is a bit. We might have one in Dayton (Providence most likely) but it wouldn't surprise me to see those teams seeded in the 7-10 range rather than the 11 line.
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Vandy being ahead of us is a travesty.
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Vandy being ahead of us is a travesty.
It is. I don't see any scenario that they are in anything other than a play in game unless they get the AQ. First ever 15 loss at large. They will get in, though.
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Basically.
Need VCU
SMU or Cincy(hopefully both win today and end all doubt)
Midde Tennessee
And anyone but Bama in SEC
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USA Today has MU solidly in the tournament and as an 8 seed.
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
USA TODAY Sports Bracketology: Duke vaults to No. 2, Arizona eyes No. 1 seed
http://usat.ly/2mwRcEq
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Vandy being ahead of us is a travesty.
It is. I don't see any scenario that they are in anything other than a play in game unless they get the AQ. First ever 15 loss at large. They will get in, though.
Is it? They have an RPI of 33 and a SOS of 1....that's right....they number 1 SOS in the country. They also own 6 top 50 wins (1 less than us) and 11 top 100 wins (2 more than us). They have 3 top 10 wins (all against the same team), a road win at Arkansas (28), and a win at home vs Iowa State (24). You could make an argument for those 5 wins all being better than our 2nd best win. They do have one abysmal loss to Mizzou on the road, but all their other losses are top 100.
Really the only reason they were on the bubble was they didn't have enough Ws. The three in the last week (including two top 10) have changed that. Will be interesting to see how and if the committee factors in our head to head matchup. Keep in mind that it happened almost 4 months ago. Does it still have the same weight?
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Is it? They have an RPI of 33 and a SOS of 1....that's right....they number 1 SOS in the country. They also own 6 top 50 wins (1 less than us) and 11 top 100 wins (2 more than us). They have 3 top 10 wins (all against the same team), a road win at Arkansas (28), and a win at home vs Iowa State (24). You could make an argument for those 5 wins all being better than our 2nd best win. They do have one abysmal loss to Mizzou on the road, but all their other losses are top 100.
Really the only reason they were on the bubble was they didn't have enough Ws. The three in the last week (including two top 10) have changed that. Will be interesting to see how and if the committee factors in our head to head matchup. Keep in mind that it happened almost 4 months ago. Does it still have the same weight?
Mostly interested to see how they seed the first 15 loss at large team. It's never happened before.
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X may have just taken our bid. These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional
Currently 97.4% of the bracket guys are delusional. Including Lunardi (ESPN), CBS, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, Fox Sports
http://bracketmatrix.com/
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Is it? They have an RPI of 33 and a SOS of 1....that's right....they number 1 SOS in the country. They also own 6 top 50 wins (1 less than us) and 11 top 100 wins (2 more than us). They have 3 top 10 wins (all against the same team), a road win at Arkansas (28), and a win at home vs Iowa State (24). You could make an argument for those 5 wins all being better than our 2nd best win. They do have one abysmal loss to Mizzou on the road, but all their other losses are top 100.
Really the only reason they were on the bubble was they didn't have enough Ws. The three in the last week (including two top 10) have changed that. Will be interesting to see how and if the committee factors in our head to head matchup. Keep in mind that it happened almost 4 months ago. Does it still have the same weight?
We also beat them by 24 on a neutral court. They play in the SEC, which is essentially the AAC with Kentucky. Put them in any other Power conference and they are not making the tournament.
They should dance, because they got it done. But should absolutely be in a play in game.
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No bama bid stealer
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Currently 97.4% of the bracket guys are delusional. Including Lunardi (ESPN), CBS, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, Fox Sports
http://bracketmatrix.com/
Now at 98.3%. 115 out of 117 brackets say yes. Of the two that don't, one hasn't been updated in two days.
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It is. I don't see any scenario that they are in anything other than a play in game unless they get the AQ. First ever 15 loss at large. They will get in, though.
So your stance has changed? This time last week - there was NO WAY Vandy would get in at Illinois State's expense...
Now they are safely in. And Ill State is by most indications - OUT.
Most people on this board feel like Conference tournament games have no real relevance outside of seeding...
So what changed? Illinois State made it to the championship game of the MVC..
This whole thread is a circle of (1) HOT TAKES, (2) backpedaling, (3) MORE HOT TAKES, (4) Backpedaling, etc.
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A10 and AAC only bid stealers left? I suppose the CUSA, but I don't see MTSU ahead of us if an at-large. Even though Vandy is probably in, we probably want them as an at-large as they would likely be in the play-in game.
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So your stance has changed? This time last week - there was NO WAY Vandy would get in at Illinois State's expense...
Now they are safely in. And Ill State is by most indications - OUT.
Most people on this board feel like Conference tournament games have no real relevance outside of seeding...
So what changed? Illinois State made it to the championship game of the MVC..
This whole thread is a circle of (1) HOT TAKES, (2) backpedaling, (3) MORE HOT TAKES, (4) Backpedaling, etc.
Good lord.
Illinois State is in the MVC. They beat no one to get to the championship game then got blown out.
Vanderbilt played the hardest schedule in the country and upset Florida yesterday. Meanwhile everyone around them keeps losing.
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So your stance has changed? This time last week - there was NO WAY Vandy would get in at Illinois State's expense...
Now they are safely in. And Ill State is by most indications - OUT.
Most people on this board feel like Conference tournament games have no real relevance outside of seeding...
So what changed? Illinois State made it to the championship game of the MVC..
This whole thread is a circle of (1) HOT TAKES, (2) backpedaling, (3) MORE HOT TAKES, (4) Backpedaling, etc.
First off all, you're a pissy little guy. Don't really get why you feel the need to attack those providing analysis. By all mean, provide something meaningful.
Secondly, did I ever say Vandy wouldn't get in at Illinois States expense? I've never really been in ISUs corner. They haven't played anyone but WSU in months, and have gotten smoked by WSU twice. Meanwhile, since last week, Vandy has beaten Florida twice. One of which was a conference game.
I am curious to see how the committee treats Vandy. They're in unchartered waters. How much weight does the committee put into the 15 losses? I tend to think that may push them to Dayton, but their resume is far superior to the Rhode Islands, K State, Illinois State, USC, Cals of the world, so they just may escape Dayton with 15 losses. Guess we'll see in 24 hours.
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They're not gonna get in unless they do some damage in SEC tourney. They're gonna take an Illinois State, or a Middle Tennessee over a 15 loss SEC team.
That said, I wouldn't be completely shocked if they get to Dayton w an SEC tourney win or two.
If this is what you're referring to amen, I literally qualified the statement with the exact scenario that just happened. Vandy has earned a bid at this point with its back to back wins over Florida.
And I still think ISU may get in. It'll be close. Don't think they deserve to though. I also said that in my next post from the above.
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Secondly, did I ever say Vandy wouldn't get in at Illinois States expense? I've never really been in ISUs corner.
Your comments came after Vandy had already beaten Florida (for the 2nd time this year).
I'm well aware of their resume. They're going to take them over a 15 loss SEC team. If Vandy makes it, it won't be at he expense of Illinois State.
Literally said "won't be at the expense of Illinois State".
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Smu does their job today.
VCU in a dogfight. They are not good and have a poor resume. Make them play in Dayton if they lose
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Vandy getting smoked now, down 21........
looks like the SEC tournament over for them, just don't jump MU tomm.
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Looking like a team playing 3 times in less than 48hrs.
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If VCU isn't in the play in game for losing to garbage Richmond that would be the real travesty.
Why is this team so safe? Losing to Fordham?
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If VCU isn't in the play in game for losing to garbage Richmond that would be the real travesty.
Why is this team so safe? Losing to Fordham?
They are beating Richmond right now.
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They are beating Richmond right now.
Which has nothing to do with what I said
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Which has nothing to do with what I said
"If VCU isn't in the play in game for losing to garbage Richmond that would be a real travesty."
They haven't lost to Richmond this year. So where are you getting this "for losing to Richmond" business?
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"If VCU isn't in the play in game for losing to garbage Richmond that would be a real travesty."
They haven't lost to Richmond this year. So where are you getting this "for losing to Richmond" business?
The very first word of "if" should clue you in.
Then again. You don't know what a missed dunk is.
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Clicked to VCU. I didn't know they had a team of cavemen!
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The very first word of "if" should clue you in.
Then again. You don't know what a missed dunk is.
You used the function "if" on the "qualifying game." Not on a potential loss by VCU.
Suggested edit: "If VCU loses to Richmond and isn't in the play in game, that would be a real travesty."
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You used the function "if" on the "qualifying game." Not on a potential loss by VCU.
Suggested edit: "If VCU loses to Richmond and isn't in the play in game, that would be a real travesty."
Hey, don't you know what a missed dunk is?!
:o
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You used the function "if" on the "qualifying game." Not on a potential loss by VCU.
Suggested edit: "If VCU loses to Richmond and isn't in the play in game, that would be a real travesty."
It still works tho.
"If you go to that party you will be in trouble".
Very common phrase. And it's something that has yet to happen.
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OT.
VCU sucks.
Should win this game if they just let Lewis take over tho
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Clicked to VCU. I didn't know they had a team of cavemen!
And Mo Alie Cox, Jae Crowders twin.
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OT.
VCU sucks.
Should win this game if they just let Lewis take over tho
Both these teams suck. Talk about the eye test? How 'bout the barf test?
Edit: Jae Crowder Jr. is pretty good though.
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VCU gonna win.
Hopefully they can avoid losing to RI again.
Rhode Island I actually think is better then them
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Your comments came after Vandy had already beaten Florida (for the 2nd time this year).
Literally said "won't be at the expense of Illinois State".
After saying that Vandy will likely get in with a few wins in the SEC tourney, which they got, including another top 20 win. Vandy is definitely going to be an interesting name to see what happens tomorrow. I do think the committee will have a tough time leaving Illinois State out and putting a 15 loss sec team in, but they may both get in. If it comes down to those 2 (it won't), Vandy has the better resume IMO.
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VCU gonna win.
Hopefully they can avoid losing to RI again.
Rhode Island I actually think is better then them
Way better.
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We're just about out of bracket thieves, correct? I'm not really counting Rhode Island at this point.
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We're just about out of bracket thieves, correct? I'm not really counting Rhode Island at this point.
Basically just Uconn.
RI has Dayton implications. If they get the auto bid they can't be a play in so someone has to be bumped down there.
Also would be good for Middle Tennessee to just win tonight
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Cincy blowing a 14 pt lead
And watching purvis hit that miracle bank shot at the shot clock buzzer makes you wonder if these bastards are gonna pull another miracle run
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Cincy blowing a 14 pt lead
And watching purvis hit that miracle bank shot at the shot clock buzzer makes you wonder if these bastards are gonna pull another miracle run
I am watching this game and all I can think is screw football and get both of these teams in the Big East.
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Uconn is like a damn cockroach
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F'in UCONN just won't go away.
5 point game 45 seconds to to.
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F'in UCONN just won't go away.
5 point game 45 seconds to to.
It's crazy
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Cincinnati vs SMU in AAc Title Game.
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No bid steal.
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MU down to #28 in Pomeroy.
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MU down to #28 in Pomeroy.
Down as in the number got lower or down as in it got worse?
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Down as in the number got lower or down as in it got worse?
Got better by sitting...as team like CU, Vandy, and Michigan improved our standing.
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Got better by sitting...as team like CU, Vandy, and Michigan improved our standing.
Sweet, see sitting on your ass works out sometimes. At least that's what I tell myself.
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We shouldn't worry about the bubble we are in i think
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Doew anyone sense the slowly Wheels coming off the wagon? I think the Cavalry needs to come to our rescue soon. Just saw the latest Lunardi hate sheet.
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Do tell, last one I saw had us 11, playing Michigan then Baylor
http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?iteration=254®ion=3&year=2017 (http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?iteration=254®ion=3&year=2017)
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Doew anyone sense the slowly Wheels coming off the wagon? I think the Cavalry needs to come to our rescue soon. Just saw the latest Lunardi hate sheet.
Nope.
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What if we got matched up with michigan again? I feel like we would have a chance but it would be tough
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This has prol been mentioned other times but has there been any analysis over the last two or three years on lunardis accuracy for his placements? I bet his total picked in percentage is pretty high but as far as the actual seeds given and the regional placement? This Potential Michigan matchup has me worried and just thought about what the likelihood is it goes that way
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What if we got matched up with michigan again? I feel like we would have a chance but it would be tough
It would be a good game.
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It would be a good game.
Michigan has been playing well lately
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This has prol been mentioned other times but has there been any analysis over the last two or three years on lunardis accuracy for his placements? I bet his total picked in percentage is pretty high but as far as the actual seeds given and the regional placement? This Potential Michigan matchup has me worried and just thought about what the likelihood is it goes that way
Yeah, this matchup has me nervous
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This has prol been mentioned other times but has there been any analysis over the last two or three years on lunardis accuracy for his placements? I bet his total picked in percentage is pretty high but as far as the actual seeds given and the regional placement? This Potential Michigan matchup has me worried and just thought about what the likelihood is it goes that way
Bracket Matrix has an evaluation system that looks at how various bracketologists have performed over the past five years. Of the 88 bracketologists they have tracked, Lunardi places at #22. So not bad.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
That being said, just a quick look shows that those ranked higher than Lundardi generally have Marquette seeded a little higher than he does.
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Nope.
That is good news
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Dont want to jinx us but we have gotten incredibly lucky as far as the conference tourneys have gone
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#0 on middle Tennessee needs to stop shooting
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Sweet, see sitting on your ass works out sometimes.
My college major!
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Bracket Matrix has an evaluation system that looks at how various bracketologists have performed over the past five years. Of the 88 bracketologists they have tracked, Lunardi places at #22. So not bad.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
That being said, just a quick look shows that those ranked higher than Lundardi generally have Marquette seeded a little higher than he does.
Great info - yeah so he is usually in the 330 neighborhood - so id guess he gets all but 2-3 teams not picked in right, so it looks like the guys that are really good at this get about all the teams right and about half the teams seeded correctly and half the teams within one seed - that's 340 - or a few more seeded correctly and a few more where they miss the seed by more than one -
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Really hoping for that 10 seed now
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Of note from that matrix site from what I can tell the best score on there was a group of high school kids last year who got a 351 and in their bracket we are a 9 seed playing northwestern in gonzagas bracket -
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Guys..MU is NOT playing Michigan in the 1st round. The commitee tries very hard to not matchup teams thay have played in the regular season in the first round.
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Guys..MU is NOT playing Michigan in the 1st round. The commitee tries very hard to not matchup teams thay have played in the regular season in the first round.
This......they will move a team to a different seed line if they have to in order to avoid this scenario
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Latest update.
2nd highest 10 seed. 8 teams between us and the bubble. 4 between us and Dayton. That could change tomorrow if Rhode Island wins....but VCU is only 2 spots higher than us. Could a loss drop them below us?
Looking forward to the Selection Sunday show for the first time in years
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This......they will move a team to a different seed line if they have to in order to avoid this scenario
Lunardi has said he doesn't worry about this and his bracket is inaccurate in that regard. He isn't worried about where who someone plays, rather seed lines.
We will not be playing Michigan. I wouldn't be surprised in the least though if we are playing Northwestern. I have a feeling that is who we will play; it will be named the "Who will replace coach K championship".
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Could be Northwestern.....or Buzz.....wouldn't that be something.....
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All seven Beast teams locks for lunardi now
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We shouldn't worry about the bubble we are in i think
You change your mind every 20 minutes. Stick with something. It's a good habit.
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Latest update.
2nd highest 10 seed. 8 teams between us and the bubble. 4 between us and Dayton. That could change tomorrow if Rhode Island wins....but VCU is only 2 spots higher than us. Could a loss drop them below us?
Looking forward to the Selection Sunday show for the first time in years
All I care about is making the tournament . I can make the case that Dayton is a better outcome as we play someone relatively equal seed wise . If we play like we can it may be a momentum builder . Our guys then go into the second round with a game under their belt.
First things first let's get in.
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All I care about is making the tournament . I can make the case that Dayton is a better outcome as we play someone relatively equal seed wise . If we play like we can it may be a momentum builder . Our guys then go into the second round with a game under their belt.
First things first let's get in.
Agree
Great for the program and our new coach. Gives legitimacy in the eyes of recruits and their parents to wojos vision.
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Agree
Great for the program and our new coach. Gives legitimacy in the eyes of recruits and here parents to wojos vision.
You have been all over the place the last few days. Attacking players, Wojo, the schedule makers. Now you're all good? I'd rather have you here in this frame of mind than the previous, but make up your mind laddie.
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You have been all over the place the last few days. Attacking players, Wojo, the schedule makers. Now you're all good? I'd rather have you here in this frame of mind than the previous, but make up your mind laddie.
Actually i havent. Before we even played seton hall a number of people were saying have no fear we are a lock. Ive firmly said , no there could be a ton of bid stealers. Thankfully that has not happened. Uconn, alabama, etc , etc all have fallen off. Now i fell safe.
And our achedule makers still sucked
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Actually i havent. Before we even played seton hall a number of people were saying have no fear we are a lock. Ive firmly said , no there could be a ton of bid stealers. Thankfully that has not happened. Uconn, alabama, etc , etc all have fallen off. Now i fell safe.
And our achedule makers still sucked
We were a lock before we played Creighton.
And you don't have a damn clue about the schedule or you could've answered one of the basic questions I posed.
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Stating the obvious, but that Nova win will have a HUGE impact on making the tournament, without that we are possibly first 4 out/in
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We shouldn't worry about the bubble we are in i think
You change your mind every 20 minutes. Stick with something. It's a good habit.
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Doew anyone sense the slowly Wheels coming off the wagon? I think the Cavalry needs to come to our rescue soon. Just saw the latest Lunardi hate sheet.
Hashtag @ScoopTakes.
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I wonder when RPI changes fail to matter. As we watch teams like Creighton (back to top-25), Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and others have micro-effects on our RPI, does the committee even care with how fast things can change this week? Do they stop and say "wait, Marquette has three top-25 wins now, bump them up a line?"
This is more of why I don't think conference championship week matters as much as some think. My guess is they go with the RPI or computer rankings they have to start the week and stick with it, because making changes as hundreds of teams are playing is just ludicrous.
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I wonder when RPI changes fail to matter. As we watch teams like Creighton (back to top-25), Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and others have micro-effects on our RPI, does the committee even care with how fast things can change this week? Do they stop and say "wait, Marquette has three top-25 wins now, bump them up a line?"
This is more of why I don't think conference championship week matters as much as some think. My guess is they go with the RPI or computer rankings they have to start the week and stick with it, because making changes as hundreds of teams are playing is just ludicrous.
I've wondered the same thing Brew, and remember the NCAA has their own RPI. But you do wonder where the "cut off" is as far as "locking it in". That would be fascinating to know, and I bet if anyone ever asked a committee chair that question they'd answer it.
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Brennan put up his final bubble watch... thinks we are in: http://m.espn.com/ncb/bubblewatch?src=desktop
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Is this the lease exciting bubble ever? Lunardi really has only 6 teams on the cut-line: Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, and Illinois State. If I'm the committee, I'm taking Wake Forest, Kansas State, Rhode Island, and USC. Wake and URI play into the West, K-State and USC into the East. If URI wins the A-10 Tourney, drop Vandy into their place due to 15 losses.
I know the thought process is that the committee loves Syracuse, but they have 3 bad losses (and unlike us, Georgetown and St. John's were at home), an awful RPI/SOS, mediocre computer numbers, and no wins away from home that are really worth anything (Clemson, meh). Though USC's resume isn't much more impressive, more wins but mostly against the terrible part of the Pac-12.
Some have tried to defend this bubble in recent days, saying how it's actually strong (Seth Davis) but come on...Syracuse, USC, and Illinois State? Those resumes, along with a 15-loss team being a lock indicates how bad it is.
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Soft bubble plus no real bid stealers means that you going to have some teams get in that would have had no shot in previous years.
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Latest lunardi:
11 seed vs St Mary's, in Sacramento.
Winner likely plays Oregon.
That would be a fun line to be on!
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Soft bubble plus no real bid stealers means that you going to have some teams get in that would have had no shot in previous years.
Yup. Usually, the part of the show I always look forward to is the outrage over the "screw-ups" the committee makes. But if USC, Syracuse, or Illinois State are left out, will anyone really be that upset other than their own fans?
I kind of think you have to take Wake and K-State. Rhode Island I think did enough based on their 2-1 top-25 record, 10-6 record away from home, and #24 NCSOS. For me it comes down to 3 teams for 1 spot, and I'm not sure it makes any real difference. No one will get snubbed because an undeserving team will automatically get in.
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Soft bubble plus no real bid stealers means that you going to have some teams get in that would have had no shot in previous years.
Agreed. And those 'no previous shot' teams ought to be shipped off to Dayton. I'm looking at YOU Vandy. Be thankful that you get even that with your 15 losses.
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Is this the lease exciting bubble ever? Lunardi really has only 6 teams on the cut-line: Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, and Illinois State. If I'm the committee, I'm taking Wake Forest, Kansas State, Rhode Island, and USC. Wake and URI play into the West, K-State and USC into the East. If URI wins the A-10 Tourney, drop Vandy into their place due to 15 losses.
I know the thought process is that the committee loves Syracuse, but they have 3 bad losses (and unlike us, Georgetown and St. John's were at home), an awful RPI/SOS, mediocre computer numbers, and no wins away from home that are really worth anything (Clemson, meh). Though USC's resume isn't much more impressive, more wins but mostly against the terrible part of the Pac-12.
Some have tried to defend this bubble in recent days, saying how it's actually strong (Seth Davis) but come on...Syracuse, USC, and Illinois State? Those resumes, along with a 15-loss team being a lock indicates how bad it is.
Honestly Brew, you bring up a great case AGAINST Syracuse to be included. However, if you compare them to Providence, Syracuse's computer #'s are better in every metric(BPI, Sagarin, KenPom) by a susbstantial margin, except RPI. PC also has more bad losses-3(below 100 RPI), then any team projected to be in the field. Both have losses against BC and SJU and PC has the loss to DePaul as well. Both are 6-8 against the RPI top 50. If you leave Cuse out(which I think you have to), then I think a strong argument can be made as well to leave Providence out(unless you are going STRICTLY on RPI). At the very least, I think PC is a strong candidate for Dayton.
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Honestly Brew, you bring up a great case AGAINST Syracuse to be included. However, if you compare them to Providence, Syracuse's computer #'s are better in every metric(BPI, Sagarin, KenPom) by a susbstantial margin, except RPI. PC also has more bad losses-3(below 100 RPI), then any team projected to be in the field. Both have losses against BC and SJU and PC has the loss to DePaul as well. Both are 6-8 against the RPI top 50. If you leave Cuse out(which I think you have to), then I think a strong argument can be made as well to leave Providence out(unless you are going STRICTLY on RPI). At the very least, I think PC is a strong candidate for Dayton.
I could see PC in Dayton, but what kills Syracuse for me is that 2-11 mark away from home and the refusal to play anywhere outside of New York. They only played one non-con game outside the state of New York, the Wisconsin game they were assigned. Compare that to Providence, who went 5-9 away from the Dunk with two of those wins (Creighton and Marquette) coming on the road against tourney teams. Also, there's the obvious 20-12 v 18-14 comparison, with Providence having a better record against a tougher schedule (both NCSOS and total SOS). And Providence doesn't have more bad losses, Syracuse has three sub-100 losses and two of them (Georgetown, St. John's) were at home.
If any Big East team goes to Dayton, I agree that it should be Providence. I just don't think any of us should be in Dayton.
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I've wondered the same thing Brew, and remember the NCAA has their own RPI.
Huh? There is only 1 RPI. (Well, some orgs like ESPN try to calculate it, but screw up.. so there are mistake-RPIs too)
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Latest lunardi:
11 seed vs St Mary's, in Sacramento.
Winner likely plays Oregon.
That would be a fun line to be on!
That would be a dream scenario. St. Mary's not overly physical, nor is Oregon, and Oregon lost major contributor Boucher.
Please tourney gods make this happen!
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Just root for VCU. They win and Rhode Island probably gets a play in game. Rhode Island wins, then VCU moves down to like a 9/10, Rhode Island gets a non-play in game, then its a committee call who drops. MU, X, Providence??
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Roy Schmidt @prepbullseye
IL St HC Dan Muller sounds very confident that his Redbirds will be playing an NCAA play-in game in Dayton. And they SHOULD be IMO.
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Roy Schmidt @prepbullseye
IL St HC Dan Muller sounds very confident that his Redbirds will be playing an NCAA play-in game in Dayton. And they SHOULD be IMO.
Bullseye is totally in the bag for ISU. I just don't see it. 1 top-50 win, 2-4 against the top-100, 2 bad losses. I mean, sure, they are 26-6, but 24 of those wins are against sub-100 teams.
I wouldn't be upset if they were in, but it would take a major shift from the committee. In recent years, they have looked more to teams with top-50 and top-100 wins when allowing teams with bad losses in. Maybe they edge out Syracuse or USC, but I don't think they have any right to be "very confident" of anything other than a home NIT game.
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Just root for VCU. They win and Rhode Island probably gets a play in game. Rhode Island wins, then VCU moves down to like a 9/10, Rhode Island gets a non-play in game, then its a committee call who drops. MU, X, Providence??
Not necessarily, I'm not certain that all the teams you list aren't in front of at least Vanderbilt and maybe Michigan St. on the seed list.
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Just root for VCU. They win and Rhode Island probably gets a play in game. Rhode Island wins, then VCU moves down to like a 9/10, Rhode Island gets a non-play in game, then its a committee call who drops. MU, X, Providence??
Maybe....but VCU is only two spots higher than us on bracket matrix. Is a loss enough to move them down? My guy say no, but the committee is often unfriendly to the best teams from bad conferences, just look at Wichita State in the play in game last season.
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Maybe....but VCU is only two spots higher than us on bracket matrix. Is a loss enough to move them down? My guy say no, but the committee is often unfriendly to the best teams from bad conferences, just look at Wichita State in the play in game last season.
So either you are on the committee or you have some guys on the committee. Hmmm, no wonder you got so much info.
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So either you are on the committee or you have some guys on the committee. Hmmm, no wonder you got so much info.
Lol. The y is right next to the t. My bad.
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I'll be rooting for VCU because Rhode Island would definitely be in the mix for Dayton. Not necessarily the case with VCU.
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Was just watching CBS where Palm works for. If they didnt have us in the last five teams in (yes five), I cant imagine we end up in Dayton.
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I haven't heard of him before, but I saw a tweet saying Patrick Stevens is a good basketball follow. He is tweeting out his rankings of teams and has MU at 34. I've thought we were in the lower 9/upper 10 range for awhile based on our Top 50 wins.
https://twitter.com/d1scourse/status/840959942546845696
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I haven't heard of him before, but I saw a tweet saying Patrick Stevens is a good basketball follow. He is tweeting out his rankings of teams and has MU at 34. I've thought we were in the lower 9/upper 10 range for awhile based on our Top 50 wins.
https://twitter.com/d1scourse/status/840959942546845696
Is that to be interpreted as 34 on the S curve?
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Is that to be interpreted as 34 on the S curve?
That's how I interpret it
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Is that to be interpreted as 34 on the S curve?
Yes. He did all teams 1-68. It's an interesting string.
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Lots of game left but once again VCU looks like absolute ass.
Rhode Island again seems like the superior team(as I said coming in)
Loser of this game should be in Dayton. Regardless of which team it is
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Espn just said if rhode island wins they belive MU goes to dayton
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Espn just said if rhode island wins they belive MU goes to dayton
I think it will be one of Providence, Vanderbilt, Michigan St. or Xavier.
I do not think the committee is impressed with the B10 and think Michigan St. is far lower on the seed list than people think.
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I don't trust any of these analysts anymore. VCU loses and its gonna be close to a play in game. So be it, few weeks ago thought MU didn't have a prayer, have to just enjoy fact they willing be playing.
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I would like to think/hope that all things being equal if MU is really one of the teams considered for Dayton that their win over Nova will trump everything else.
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I don't trust any of these analysts anymore. VCU loses and its gonna be close to a play in game. So be it, few weeks ago thought MU didn't have a prayer, have to just enjoy fact they willing be playing.
The issue is, a team like VCU who we are clearly better then might be determining our Dayton fate.
It's a joke
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The issue is, a team like VCU who we are clearly better then might be determining our Dayton fate.
It's a joke
Yes, but at least MU will make the tournament, something many thought impossible weeks ago. If they didn't lay an egg against SH, moot point, but it is what it is. Truly believe one of MU, X or Prov drop with VCU loss, but maybe get to see MU play twice this week.
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The issue is, a team like VCU who we are clearly better then might be determining our Dayton fate.
It's a joke
If Marquette ends up in Dayton it is a fate that they could have prevented all on their own.
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If Marquette ends up in Dayton it is a fate that they could have prevented all on their own.
By what? Tripling VCU top 50 wins instead of just more then doubling?
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By what? Tripling VCU top 50 wins instead of just more then doubling?
I think he means not shiiting 5-6 wins down their leg in the second half
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I think he means not shiiting 5-6 wins down their leg in the second half
That's great.
It's still the fact that VCU should not be higher then us as is.
I'm not saying we should be a 5 seed here
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Actually i havent. Before we even played seton hall a number of people were saying have no fear we are a lock. Ive firmly said , no there could be a ton of bid stealers. Thankfully that has not happened. Uconn, alabama, etc , etc all have fallen off. Now i fell safe.
And our achedule makers still sucked
You haven't slammed this team (Fischer, JJJ), Wojo, the schedule makers in the last week?
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The issue is, a team like VCU who we are clearly better then might be determining our Dayton fate.
It's a joke
Well, gotta tak care of yo own business, hey?
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I haven't heard of him before, but I saw a tweet saying Patrick Stevens is a good basketball follow. He is tweeting out his rankings of teams and has MU at 34. I've thought we were in the lower 9/upper 10 range for awhile based on our Top 50 wins.
https://twitter.com/d1scourse/status/840959942546845696
Thanks for sharing. Great read.
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Here comes VCU...
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The issue is, a team like VCU who we are clearly better then might be determining our Dayton fate.
It's a joke
We are at least 5 teams from Dayton IMHO.
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Well, gotta tak care of yo own business, hey?
We did, in retrospect to getting 10/11 seed.
And no bids were stolen.
This is simply the fact that VCU resume or eye test is not a good basketball team.
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We are at least 5 teams from Dayton IMHO.
Yup, the CBS crew said that this morning. Lunardi is the only one who seems to have Vandy over us.
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We are at least 5 teams from Dayton IMHO.
Hope you're right.
I believe we should be about 5 away. But with some guys like Palm and Lunardi have so dangerously close
It leaves it very open.
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Yup, the CBS crew said that this morning. Lunardi is the only one who seems to have Vandy over us.
CBS said 5 between us and play in?
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What really makes this bubble business difficult to reconcile is winning one less game than last year when we didn't even make the NIT field and feeling like a lock. It shows the strength of the Big East this year but our non conference schedule this year was almost as bad as last year's, thank goodness for teams like Vanderbilt and Michigan being NCAA worthy.
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What really makes this bubble business difficult to reconcile is winning one less game than last year when we didn't even make the NIT field and feeling like a lock. It shows the strength of the Big East this year but our non conference schedule this year was almost as bad as last year's, thank goodness for teams like Vanderbilt and Michigan being NCAA worthy.
No it wasn't. Not even close.
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CBS said 5 between us and play in?
Five between us and the bubble, which means that we have at least two teams leeway between us and Dayton.
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Where are all the posters saying MU isn't an NCAA team gonna be when we get an 8 or a 9 seed?
Personally hoping for a 10 or 11 (no Dayton), but a good chunk of this board should be eating some major crow in a few hours. But they won't be (a few in particular).
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Where are all the posters saying MU isn't an NCAA team gonna be when we get an 8 or a 9 seed?
Personally hoping for a 10 or 11 (no Dayton), but a good chunk of this board should be eating some major crow in a few hours. But they won't be (a few in particular).
Hopefully not talking me.
But you really think that high? I hope not though. 8/9 wouldn't be fun
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Hopefully not talking me.
But you really think that high? I hope not though. 8/9 wouldn't be fun
So what exactly would you be happy with?
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Hopefully not talking me.
But you really think that high? I hope not though. 8/9 wouldn't be fun
No I'm not talking about you.
I think a 9 is possible. 10 most likely.
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What really makes this bubble business difficult to reconcile is winning one less game than last year when we didn't even make the NIT field and feeling like a lock. It shows the strength of the Big East this year but our non conference schedule this year was almost as bad as last year's, thank goodness for teams like Vanderbilt and Michigan being NCAA worthy.
Total wins no matta. That is why Illinois St is squarely on the bubble behind teams with far fewer wins.
Understand the process and it will become clear.
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So what exactly would you be happy with?
10/11 should be a pretty obvious guess.
8/9 craps on Dayton tho
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You guys are high if you think we have a shot at 9 or higher.
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Yes be happy regardless but Dayton would blow D and personally I don't think we should be there - clearly should be higher than last couple at Large's
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You guys are high if you think we have a shot at 9 or higher.
It depends on how much they weight top 50 wins. If they weight it very highly like they said they are going to we are a 9 seed. If they do not we are a 10-11.
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SMU Cincy might not even be over by 430 CST
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We won't be in Dayton.
Sand knit you should be hoping we are in Dayton or NIT since you said yourself these seniors don't deserve to be in the tourney.
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It depends on how much they weight top 50 wins. If they weight it very highly like they said they are going to we are a 9 seed. If they do not we are a 10-11.
This
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CNN/Bleacher Report has MU as a 12 and fifth to last...which if URI wins, puts us in Dayton. I think they are off...like Vandy and Xavier ahead of us...but, just saying.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2696424-ncaa-bracketology-2017-real-time-seed-and-region-projections-for-all-68-teams?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
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CNN/Bleacher Report has MU as a 12 and fifth to last...which if URI was NSF, puts us in Dayton. I think they are off...like Vandy and Xavier ahead of us...but, just saying.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2696424-ncaa-bracketology-2017-real-time-seed-and-region-projections-for-all-68-teams?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial
But we can't be a 12 unless we're in the play in game right? This one makes no sense.
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But we can't be a 12 unless we're in the play in game right? This one makes no sense.
Unless they put some additional conference champions onto the 11 seed line.
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Officials swallowing their whistles in the VCU game. VCU fouled several times and no calls. Still fighting though.
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Looks like RI win.
This should be a fun three hours........
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VCU sucks
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It depends on how much they weight top 50 wins. If they weight it very highly like they said they are going to we are a 9 seed. If they do not we are a 10-11.
I predict zero chance at a 9. 20% at a 10. 50% at 11. 30% at 12
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Interesting that Lunardi has MU #11 vs St Mary's #6 in Sacramento in the Midwest AND #6 UW vs #11 Xavier in Sacramento South Bracket.. 8-)
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Mu may miss the whole thing
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Mu may miss the whole thing
Thats not gonna happen.
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Mu may miss the whole thing
Missouri? Yes.
Marquette? Not a chance.
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I predict zero chance at a 9. 20% at a 10. 50% at 11. 30% at 12
9. 20%
10. 40%
11. 40%
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I predict zero chance at a 9. 20% at a 10. 50% at 11. 30% at 12
I'd say, 10%, 30%, 50%, 10% for the same seeds.
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You guys are high if you think we have a shot at 9 or higher.
I think we'll be on the 8/9 line, but think as high as a 7 is realistic. It depends on if they use top-50 wins, computer rankings, or RPI as their main factor in seeding.
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I think we'll be on the 8/9 line, but think as high as a 7 is realistic. It depends on if they use top-50 wins, computer rankings, or RPI as their main factor in seeding.
Brew, I appreciate your positivity but if we're in consideration for a 7 seed that would be a pretty big miss by the committee. Who knows though, maybe the Nova win carries a pretty big weight.
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I think we'll be on the 8/9 line, but think as high as a 7 is realistic. It depends on if they use top-50 wins, computer rankings, or RPI as their main factor in seeding.
Seriously?
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A 7 seed?! :o
Almost did a spit-take on my keyboard over that one.
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Seriously?
Really. We've heard consistently that top-50 wins is massively important and saw that when they released the top-16. Nothing from 7-11 would surprise me, with 8/9 my expectation.
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Brew is the counter balance to the Mr. Sand-knit types on the board. His unrealistic, unrelenting positivity is almost as bad. Not a single bracket has us higher than 9 yet Brew thinks were a top 21-24 team with a chance at 7.
9-12 are the realistic options.
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Really. We've heard consistently that top-50 wins is massively important and saw that when they released the top-16. Nothing from 7-11 would surprise me, with 8/9 my expectation.
MU needed a win in the BET to get a 7. As it is, our biggest competition is our BE peers. Hall and PC hold the head to head over MU. MU over X. Has to be an 11 seed and I am hopining X gets Dayton over MU because of distance, head to head and injuries. That said, Vandy has to be the choice for Dayton over both.
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Brew is the counter balance to the Mr. Sand-knit types on the board. His unrealistic, unrelenting positivity is almost as bad. Not a single bracket has us higher than 9 yet Brew thinks were a top 21-24 team with a chance at 7.
9-12 are the realistic options.
21-24 are the 6 seeds. I don't think the idea of us being in the 28-36 range is that crazy, especially when teams are regularly moved up or down a line.
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Really. We've heard consistently that top-50 wins is massively important and saw that when they released the top-16. Nothing from 7-11 would surprise me, with 8/9 my expectation.
So you're ruling out Dayton?
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Mu may miss the whole thing
A few hours ago you say we are safely in, after blasting the team all week and saying we aren't in. Now you say we may miss the whole thing again?
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A few hours ago you say we are safely in, after blasting the team all week and saying we aren't in. Now you say we may miss the whole thing again?
I like this version of Chicos.
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I think we'll be on the 8/9 line, but think as high as a 7 is realistic. It depends on if they use top-50 wins, computer rankings, or RPI as their main factor in seeding.
puff puff pass man.
You'd like to make a wager?
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I think we'll get a 9/10. My only worry was that the committee would discredit our Creighton/Xavier wins but MU has a better resume than most of the bubble. I'm with Brew that I think we'll be pleasantly surprised with our seed.....or, worst case, we get an 11 and have an easier path to the second weekend. No chance we end up in Dayton IMO.
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I think we'll get a 9/10. My only worry was that the committee would discredit our Creighton/Xavier wins but MU has a better resume than most of the bubble. I'm with Brew that I think we'll be pleasantly surprised with our seed.....or, worst case, we get an 11 and have an easier path to the second weekend. No chance we end up in Dayton IMO.
You can't discredit the X and Creighton wins without discrediting the teams as well.
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I don't mean to be flippant but doesn't the committee sometimes go the easy way? Xavier was 9-9. Done as it pertains to BEast? Just asking.
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I don't mean to be flippant but doesn't the committee sometimes go the easy way? Xavier was 9-9. Done as it pertains to BEast? Just asking.
Realistically YES they or PC should be last in the BE pecking order, but it doesn't mean they will be.
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So you're ruling out Dayton?
I don't think we'll be in Dayton. I've said as much elsewhere.
You'd like to make a wager?
On what, single v double digit seed? Position on S-Curve? Dayton v bye?
One thing to remember, there's a chance Creighton, Marquette, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Providence are all on the 7-10 lines. That could force seed movement to avoid conference matchups.
I know everyone loves Lunardi because he's on the mothership, but he's never been great at seeding, just great at the field. I wouldn't look to him (or Palm) when it comes to seeds.
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Conference record isn't a thing so no.
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Conference record isn't a thing so no.
I had thought the committee has said in the past that in leagues that do play a "normal" schedule(like the BE), that they do consider conference records??
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Espn just said if rhode island wins they belive MU goes to dayton
Was there a Face attached to this or was it a scroll at the screen bottom?
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Was there a Face attached to this or was it a scroll at the screen bottom?
Well on ESPN right now Lunardi says Providence is in Dayton, and MU is still avoiding Dayton. So, methinks Mr. Sand-Knit is just making crap up again.
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So the rumored opponent is St Mary's.
Anyone know anything about them?
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Well on ESPN right now Lunardi says Providence is in Dayton, and MU is still avoiding Dayton. So, methinks Mr. Sand-Knit is just making crap up again.
Saw that Michigan State dropped also to the byes in front of us.
Knew X, Prov or MU had to go to play in. We'll see.......
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So the rumored opponent is St Mary's.
Anyone know anything about them?
Lol what do you mean the rumored opponent
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Well on ESPN right now Lunardi says Providence is in Dayton, and MU is still avoiding Dayton. So, methinks Mr. Sand-Knit is just making crap up again.
Yeah, kind of like a weather Vane.
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Lol what do you mean the rumored opponent
Homer tweeted about MU playing St Mary's.
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Homer tweeted about MU playing St Mary's.
He's just reading what Lunardi posted.
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I don't think we'll be in Dayton. I've said as much elsewhere.
On what, single v double digit seed? Position on S-Curve? Dayton v bye?
One thing to remember, there's a chance Creighton, Marquette, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Providence are all on the 7-10 lines. That could force seed movement to avoid conference matchups.
I know everyone loves Lunardi because he's on the mothership, but he's never been great at seeding, just great at the field. I wouldn't look to him (or Palm) when it comes to seeds.
As mentioned previously... if you take teams' RPI off their resumes, MU's resume stacks up quite well against other 7&8 seeds.
If this is the year the SC finally gets past RPI, MU is an easy 8 and very much in the running for a 7. No miss whatsoever.
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Don't start scouting opponents until we get one unless you really have so much time on your hands you don't know what else to do. We'll have a real opponent to scout soon enough ... unless Mrs. Sand-Knitwit is right and we miss the tourney, miss the NIT and have next season canceled due to Wojo being the worst coach in basketball history.
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Kind of strange that Providence went from being ahead of us to behind us on Lunardi's bracket...
This is why I never care for the up-to-the-minute analysis for Bracket Matrix or individual bracketologists.. Providence and Marquette haven't played in days, but they flip flopped spots overnight - where Providence is now in Dayton.
Not sure what would really cause that. Whether he's getting word from the committee, or a change of opinion..
As most have mentioned, seeding Providence/Marquette/Xavier will prove to be very difficult. Would not be surprised if we were in Dayton. Also wouldn't be shocked if we were in the 8-9 game..
If I had to predict.. i'll say the seeding will go like this for the Big East..
1 - Nova
4 - Butler
6 - Creighton
7 - Seton Hall
10 - Providence
11 - Marquette
11 - Xavier (Dayton)
Honestly have no idea on the last 3. But I do think Seton will be higher than the other 3, even though they are all currently projected in the 10-11 range.
Anything outside of Dayton and I'll be pumped. And hopefully they somehow get a game in Tulsa on Friday, so I can try and make that 3-4 hour drive from Dallas to see the game..
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Kind of strange that Providence went from being ahead of us to behind us on Lunardi's bracket...
This is why I never care for the up-to-the-minute analysis for Bracket Matrix or individual bracketologists.. Providence and Marquette haven't played in days, but they flip flopped spots overnight - where Providence is now in Dayton.
Not sure what would really cause that. Whether he's getting word from the committee, or a change of opinion..
As most have mentioned, seeding Providence/Marquette/Xavier will prove to be very difficult. Would not be surprised if we were in Dayton. Also wouldn't be shocked if we were in the 8-9 game..
If I had to predict.. i'll say the seeding will go like this for the Big East..
1 - Nova
4 - Butler
6 - Creighton
7 - Seton Hall
10 - Providence
11 - Marquette
11 - Xavier (Dayton)
Honestly have no idea on the last 3. But I do think Seton will be higher than the other 3, even though they are all currently projected in the 10-11 range.
Anything outside of Dayton and I'll be pumped. And hopefully they somehow get a game in Tulsa on Friday, so I can try and make that 3-4 hour drive from Dallas to see the game..
Lunardi also has us ahead of X but has X as a 10 seed and us as an 11. So who knows.
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The only BE "lock" I think has to be behind us is X. We beat the crap out of them twice, beat the likely overall No. 1 seed (which beat the crap out of them twice) and have a better record in the same conference. I'd understand PU and obviously SH being ahead of us. X would be a real head-scratcher to me.
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The only BE "lock" I think has to be behind us is X. We beat the crap out of them twice, beat the likely overall No. 1 seed (which beat the crap out of them twice) and have a better record in the same conference. I'd understand PU and obviously SH being ahead of us. X would be a real head-scratcher to me.
If RPI is a big factor, then X has us by a bunch. Currently X is 36 and MU is 60.
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Also...part of my expectation of an 8/9 is pessimism, because what I really want is to play in Indy, but for that we'd almost certainly have to be on the 7/10 line.
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I'm going 7. Every year when I have thought 9/10, it's been higher. And there's no money on the line.
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We'll see whether the committee disregards conference tournaments like some here say or if they overvalue them like others here say. My stance has always been they value them for what they are, 1-4 games in a 30-35 game season. Of course most teams are going to stay roughly right around where they were projected to be going into the conference tournament, because there aren't a ton of "needle moving" wins or losses in these tournaments. Most teams will do roughly what is expected of them.
BUT. When you are a team like Michigan that is projected around an 8 seed going into the conference tournament and then you beat Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in a 3 day span, or you're a team like Duke that's projected as a 4 seed going into your conference tournament and beat Clemson, Louisville, North Carolina, and Notre Dame in a 4 day span you're going to be moving up multiple lines. Heck, even Iowa State who was projected around a 7 seed will move up, and their only "needle moving" win was against West Virginia given that Baylor and Kansas were upset before either got to Iowa State.
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We'll see whether the committee disregards conference tournaments like some here say or if they overvalue them like others here say. My stance has always been they value them for what they are, 1-4 games in a 30-35 game season.
I've had that same stance, throughout. Always though a Big East tournament game would mean just as much as a win over X or Creighton down the stretch..
The tough thing is - no one really knows what the committee thought of teams on the bubble prior to the conference tournament.
Some think Vanderbilt is a good example.. Most had them out going into the SEC tournament. Beat A&M, Florida, then got stomped by Arkansas. If they jump all the way to a 9 or 10 (like Lunardi is showing), it would be hard to ignore that they at least value Tournament games the same as Regular season games...
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I'm thinking/hoping, if seeding comes down to a "tie" between PC, Xavier, SH, MU, that MU's win over Nova will trump everything else. That could end up being a HUGE feather in MU's cap.
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If RPI is a big factor, then X has us by a bunch. Currently X is 36 and MU is 60.
Fair enough. I guess we'll see shortly how they value RPI compared to all the stuff I mentioned.
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Guys, guys, guys, Lunardi is good...but let's remember that he's not actually on the selection committee.
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Guys, guys, guys, Lunardi is good...but let's remember that he's not actually on the selection committee.
True, but he's certainly somewhat connected.
That last minute move of Providence from ahead of MU & Xavier, to behind both and in the play-in game was a little telling to me.
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This is why I never care for the up-to-the-minute analysis for Bracket Matrix or individual bracketologists.. Providence and Marquette haven't played in days, but they flip flopped spots overnight - where Providence is now in Dayton.
As someone who checked bracketmatrix pretty frequently, I can tell you that Providence was never ahead of Marquette. X hasn't been ahead of Marquette since the regulars season ended. The only flip flopping that occurred Seton Hall passing Marquette after they won in the BET.
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True, but he's certainly somewhat connected.
That last minute move of Providence from ahead of MU & Xavier, to behind both and in the play-in game was a little telling to me.
Yah definitely interesting. He must've been tipped off.