Bubble Watch

[GoldenDieners32]

USA Today has MU in as a 10 in the Sunday bracket.

I really hope we aren't a 10 seed, but i mean i just want to get in. I'd prefer a 11 or 12

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Palm, who has been more negative towards MU versus other well respected bracketologists, has MU as his 3rd to last in the tournament in his update this morning.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[Herman Cain]

Here is one of my favorite bracketology sites.  They do a great job summarizing all the different metrics, and it has a pretty cool listing of the broader bubble that allows you to analyze the teams all in one spot.  Worth checking out if you like to follow the bubble, or would like to learn more about how MU stacks up with the 10-15 or so teams legitimately in contention for the last 8 or so spots.

http://www.seed-madness.com/

I certainly hope all these fancy websites are accurate. Would be fantastic to get in the Big Dance.  Until then I will stick with my theory that we need 21 wins to get in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I certainly hope all these fancy websites are accurate. Would be fantastic to get in the Big Dance.  Until then I will stick with my theory that we need 21 wins to get in.

Facts and real data points are your friend. 

[Herman Cain]

Facts and real data points are your friend.

I have been a participant  in too many committees were supposedly unbiased fact base people decide on emotion, then they rearrange the criteria to fit their selection.  There is always going to be some one on that committee that has outsized influence.

[muguru]

Facts and real data points are your friend.

I love everything you post regarding the bubble etc...but in this one instance, I agree with NY, not on the 21 wins, but that i don't trust the committee, never have never will. When you are talking the human element, anything is in play. Facts and data points are solid, but really came into play for me last year when Cuse got in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I have been a participant  in too many committees were supposedly unbiased fact base people decide on emotion, then they rearrange the criteria to fit their selection.  There is always going to be some one on that committee that has outsized influence.

Ok, so lets say Marquette goes 1-1 with a W over Creighton and 1-1 in the BET.  19-13. Let's use the latest bracket matrix as the source, http://bracketmatrix.com/, and say all teams from 9 seeds to 1 seeds are locks.  Let's assume there are 10 at larges between the 10-12 seed lines. (68 teams; 32 conferences = 36 at large teams). So after Arkansas being the last lock, please list off to me 10 teams that the committee will select that are more deserving than MU. And please consider their future schedule.  And the fact that a 15 loss at large team has never made it.  You'll quickly find out that it won't be possible to fill the field with 20+ win teams unless you invite all the MMs, and you'll also quickly find out that it gets pretty hairy toward the end.

I'd love to see you attempt to do this since you're so sure it will take 21 wins. 

[wadesworld]

I certainly hope all these fancy websites are accurate. Would be fantastic to get in the Big Dance.  Until then I will stick with my theory that we need 21 wins to get in.

Since you say the committee is biased I assume you believe that some teams can get in that don't get to 21 wins but they have more respected coaches than what MU has. 

Just so I'm aware, of the bubble teams, which teams do you believe the biased selection committee would put in with less than 21 wins?

[muguru]

Ok, so lets say Marquette goes 1-1 with a W over Creighton and 1-1 in the BET.  19-13. Let's use the latest bracket matrix as the source, http://bracketmatrix.com/, and say all teams from 9 seeds to 1 seeds are locks.  Let's assume there are 10 at larges between the 10-12 seed lines. (68 teams; 32 conferences = 36 at large teams). So after Arkansas being the last lock, please list off to me 10 teams that the committee will select that are more deserving than MU. And please consider their future schedule.  And the fact that a 15 loss at large team has never made it.  You'll quickly find out that it won't be possible to fill the field with 20+ win teams unless you invite all the MMs, and you'll also quickly find out that it gets pretty hairy toward the end.

I'd love to see you attempt to do this since you're so sure it will take 21 wins.

The thing that always worries me with the committee, is what if for whatever reason someone(s) on the committee doesn't like Marquette, regardless of what the numbers say. Maybe they don't like Wojo, maybe they think their uniforms are ugly, maybe at one point their son/daughter got denied admission...what i'm saying is, you can never discount the human element and the biases that may exist with some committee members.

[Herman Cain]

Since you say the committee is biased I assume you believe that some teams can get in that don't get to 21 wins but they have more respected coaches than what MU has. 

Just so I'm aware, of the bubble teams, which teams do you believe the biased selection committee would put in with less than 21 wins?

Michigan State

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The thing that always worries me with the committee, is what if for whatever reason someone(s) on the committee doesn't like Marquette, regardless of what the numbers say. Maybe they don't like Wojo, maybe they think their uniforms are ugly, maybe at one point their son/daughter got denied admission...what i'm saying is, you can never discount the human element and the biases that may exist with some committee members.

Cmon. This is silly. There is nothing that suggest the committee is out to screw over Marquette.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

In 28/31 brackets updated this morning on bracket matrix. First or second team out in the 3 we weren't in.

[Nukem2]

Michigan State

MSU has an RPI of 47.  They are in.

[Johnny B]

somone make a poll for will we make the tourney or not

[muguru]

Cmon. This is silly. There is nothing that suggest the committee is out to screw over Marquette.

No, there's no definitive proof of that, but I always think it's going to occur. Because you know what, it could. You never say never. The thing is, when they were locks I always worried they'd get screwed with their seeding/matchup etc, and there were some years I thought they definitely did. This year is different, they are on the bubble, they haven't been on the bubble this late in the year in many years. At this point, they have typically either been safely in or obviously out. What if the committee says you know what, this years bubble is so bad, let's take more mid majors and leave out some of the bigger guys. It's the human element..anything is possible. This is why I almost wish computers would make the picks at least then it's based strictly on numbers, and no one could really bitch.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Middle Tennessee down 3 with 1.5 to go on CBSSN.

[Herman Cain]

Cmon. This is silly. There is nothing that suggest the committee is out to screw over Marquette.

I don't think there is a bias against MU. It is more about the teams the committee may unnecessarily be promoting. Syracuse performance  last year  , or some of the mid major successes,gives guys  who are making the case for someone who has less of a resume.

Part of the reason I am pushing for 21 this year , is our total body of work would be good/very good on most objective matrices.  With our no bad losses somewhat offsetting weaker strength of schedule .

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't think there is a bias against MU. It is more about the teams the committee may unnecessarily be promoting. Syracuse performance  last year  , or some of the mid major successes,gives guys  who are making the case for someone who has less of a resume.

Part of the reason I am pushing for 21 this year , is our total body of work would be good/very good on most objective matrices.  With our no bad losses somewhat offsetting weaker strength of schedule .

I figured you'd ignore my question...

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Middle Tennessee down 3 with 1.5 to go on CBSSN.

MTSU up 2 with 4.5 seconds to go. UAB ball.

[BM1090]

USB gets a really good look at a 3. Misses. MTSU wins.

[Herman Cain]

The thing that always worries me with the committee, is what if for whatever reason someone(s) on the committee doesn't like Marquette, regardless of what the numbers say. Maybe they don't like Wojo, maybe they think their uniforms are ugly, maybe at one point their son/daughter got denied admission...what i'm saying is, you can never discount the human element and the biases that may exist with some committee members.

I am saying they could possibly take teams with wins in the teens. Not saying 21 is an overall standard. It is just my standard for us. I hope I am wrong because getting to 21 is going to be hard.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Valpo not really a bubble team, but now they really aren't as they're about to lose to Northern Kentucky. One less MM bid stealer to concern ourselves with.

[Herman Cain]

Valpo not really a bubble team, but now they really aren't as they're about to lose to Northern Kentucky. One less MM bid stealer to concern ourselves with.

That is good news.

We want Xavier to win today.

[muguru]

That is good news.

We want Xavier to win today.

No! Other than having to face them Wednesday coming off five straight losses, it's about seeding for the BET at this point. I know this, I will be rooting HARD for Georgetown, SJU and ...gulp DePaul(what a terrible group to have to depend on) Tuesday night vs SH, Creighton and PC respectively. Maybe DePaul can make themselves useful and do MU a solid Tuesday night and knock off PC...It's about seeding for the BET at this point...the higher the better for MU, gotta get out of that "tied" group. Tiebreakers don't work in MU's favor. SJU knocking off Creighton is the least important of those 3 though.

[Herman Cain]

No! Other than having to face them Wednesday coming off five straight losses, it's about seeding for the BET at this point. I know this, I will be rooting HARD for Georgetown, SJU and ...gulp DePaul(what a terrible group to have to depend on) Tuesday night vs SH, Creighton and PC respectively. Maybe DePaul can make themselves useful and do MU a solid Tuesday night and knock off PC...It's about seeding for the BET at this point...the higher the better for MU, gotta get out of that "tied" group. Tiebreakers don't work in MU's favor. SJU knocking off Creighton is the least important of those 3 though.

We beat Xavier we want their resume to be strong . We want all Big East teams tournament worthy teams to Do well as it either directly or indirectly helps us. NCAA positioning more important than BET seeding. Every single game in Garden will be a battle no matter who we play.