Bubble Watch

[jsglow]

??? Scoring margins have ZERO effect on RPI.

I understand.  My only point is that we win either game with little effort.  As such, it's a terrible measurement of how good we are but does impact a measuring stick.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence

Why not include G-Town and STJ?  I think those had the most impact.

[cheebs09]

Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence

Pitt in NYC
@Seton Hall
@Butler
Providence

I originally argued Butler because that would give us a big top 25 road win, but as I thought about it more, I would say @Seton Hall. Gives us a top 50 road win, plus with the way the season has turned out that would likely eliminate Hall as a competitor for a bid.

Thoughts?

In a vacuum Butler because at that point we are 9-6 with another big win.

Part of me says Providence if it means preventing the post-Nova slide and we'd be in comfortably.

[forgetful]

Why not include G-Town and STJ?  I think those had the most impact.

The Georgetown loss is not hurting us at all.  They were a top 100 loss on the road and until this week were still in bubble consideration. 

Even St. Johns is not a bad loss compared to what is on the ledgers for most bubble teams. 

What is hurting us the most is home losses that reduce our RPI.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I understand.  My only point is that we win either game with little effort.  As such, it's a terrible measurement of how good we are but does impact a measuring stick.

Agreed, just misread it. 

[Golden Avalanche]

Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence

Pitt in NYC
@Seton Hall
@Butler
Providence

I originally argued Butler because that would give us a big top 25 road win, but as I thought about it more, I would say @Seton Hall. Gives us a top 50 road win, plus with the way the season has turned out that would likely eliminate Hall as a competitor for a bid.

Thoughts?

Without question, this is it.

[mu03eng]

Why not include G-Town and STJ?  I think those had the most impact.

Two reasons, neither of those games had outcomes that were ever really in doubt or anything other than a likely Marquette loss and as those were road games they don't negatively impact our RPI as much as home losses do.

(Yes, those road wins would have helped but since the game wasn't in doubt, isn't worth the debate IMO)

[Windyplayer]

Tonight's bubble action:

Oregon State @ California

Siena @ Monmouth (fringe at best)

Akron @ Buffalo (fringe at best)



Saturday's (rather broad) bubble games:

FL State @ Clemson

UNC @ PITT (Pitt probably has to win out regular season, plus several wins in ACCT at this point)

Wichita State @ Missouri State

Tennessee @ South Carolina

West Virginia @ TCU

Texas Tech @ OK State (OK State likely safe)

Illinois State @ Northern Iowa

VCU @ Rhode Island (VCU likely safe)

Seton Hall @ Depaul

Northeastern @ UNC-Wilmington (UNC-W longshot at best for at large)

Missouri @ Ole Miss

Miss. St @ Vandy

Purdue @ Michigan

Duke @ Miami (Miami likely safe at this point)

Marquette @ Providence

LSU @ Georgia (Georgia is a long shot at best)

Kansas State @ Oklahoma

Nevada @ UNLV (Nevada long shot at best)

Alabama @ Tex. A&M

Northwestern @ Indiana (Indiana a long shot, NW creeping closer to bubble)

Arkansas @ Auburn (Auburn long shot at best)

Think IU plays loose and blows out a super tense NW team that has lost 2 of 3 with a narrow win sandwiched in between against Rutgers at home (lost to Maryland at home & at Illinois). Collins will have to prove his worth in Bloomington. Serious gut check game.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Think IU plays loose and blows out a super tense NW team that has lost 2 of 3 with a narrow win sandwiched in between against Rutgers at home (lost to Maryland at home & at Illinois). Collins will have to prove his worth in Bloomington. Serious gut check game.

I think both us and Northwestern will get in. But how hilarious would it be if Northwestern missed and we made it after all the posts about how we got the lesser of the former Duke assistants?

[jsglow]

I think both us and Northwestern will get in. But how hilarious would it be if Northwestern missed and we made it after all the posts about how we got the lesser of the former Duke assistants?

It would be a fun 8-9 game in Indy.  Probably not in the cards though.

[Windyplayer]

It would be a fun 8-9 game in Indy.  Probably not in the cards though.

Playing in Indy would be pretty great...I have a hunch we'll be sent West (which won't be so bad because we'll be dancin')

[fjm]

Playing in Indy would be pretty great...I have a hunch we'll be sent West (which won't be so bad because we'll be dancin')

If we are in Indy on Friday... who is setting up the scoop caravan / bus? I'm in.

(If we make it knock on wood don't wanna upset the basketball Gods)

[GoldenDieners32]

Playing in Indy would be pretty great...I have a hunch we'll be sent West (which won't be so bad because we'll be dancin')

Right now Joe Lunardi has us in as a 11 seed ( last 4 bye) and playing oklahoma state in orlando

[MU82]

I'm hoping we're in (obviously) and playing in Greenville. Nice short trip for me!

[ATL MU Warrior]

I'm hoping we're in (obviously) and playing in Greenville. Nice short trip for me!

+1,000

[rocket surgeon]

feb. 23 update according to eamonn brennan of espn--one man's opinion

     "Marquette [17-10 (8-7), RPI: 67, SOS: 70] Marquette handled St. John's at home Tuesday, a nice respite in the midst of a particularly challenging closing slate to the regular season. The Golden Eagles finish with trips to Providence and Xavier, followed by a visit from Creighton. Marquette has more quality wins than most of the bubble at this point, but its jagged RPI and strength-of-schedule numbers -- especially its sub-250 noncon-SOS mark -- could become a disproportionate drag on its resume"

[fjm]

Some article on Twitter by some guy, I'm not going back to dig it back up because I already have the nervous poops about the game today and will be at work for it sadly... but the twitter article said this:


Marquette (17-10, 8-7 Big East)

Marquette is a team that just started to break into the bubble as of late, but their resume looks good compared to some of their competition. They're 6-5 against the RPI top 50, including marquee wins over the big three in the Big East: Villanova, Xavier, and Creighton. Their next three games are @Providence, @Xavier, and Creighton. A win in any of those games would improve their stock a good amount. Marquette may be a bit underrated now, but I'm hoping they pick up the steam they deserve and make it into the field of 68. Chance: 75%

[brewcity77]

Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence

Pitt in NYC
@Seton Hall
@Butler
Providence

I originally argued Butler because that would give us a big top 25 road win, but as I thought about it more, I would say @Seton Hall. Gives us a top 50 road win, plus with the way the season has turned out that would likely eliminate Hall as a competitor for a bid.

Thoughts?

Providence, no question. Like it or not, RPI still matters, and not losing at home is more important than winning on the road. Maybe if Katin's fadeaway falls, we don't have that precipitous slide. And if we want fewer teams on the bubble, it would've accomplished that as well.

[amen426]

Poor Clemson.

Although they won a national title in football. Their fan base is good for a while.

[BM1090]

Poor Clemson.

Although they won a national title in football. Their fan base is good for a while.

That's a big result. They're done with 12 conference losses. Likely would have been 50/50 at 7-11

[BM1090]

Pitt lost. Wichita state won

[fjm]

Tennessee down 20 with 4 min left.

Texas Tech down 18 at half time.

Illinois state is up 5 at half.

Road island down 1 with 1 min left in the first half.

If these teams go 0-4 it would make a great first half of the day on the bubble for MU with Clemson already listing.

Seton hall up over DePaul at half. No surprise there though.

[SaveOD238]

Seton hall up over DePaul at half. No surprise there though.

DePaul had a lead with about 3 minutes left in half.  Since then 22-4 Hall run.  I was hoping for the Demons to knock SH off the bubble, but I don't see it happening now.

[jsglow]

Do we have a reason to care about Creighton and Nova?

[PGsHeroes32]

Tennessee down 20 with 4 min left.

Texas Tech down 18 at half time.

Illinois state is up 5 at half.

Road island down 1 with 1 min left in the first half.

If these teams go 0-4 it would make a great first half of the day on the bubble for MU with Clemson already listing.

Seton hall up over DePaul at half. No surprise there though.

TCU up 2 on WVU is huge.

WVU is so blahh and we need them to win