2012 MLB Thread

[robmufan]

All good points on Kerry Wood, Stache. Good guy, as loyal to the Cubs as the fans were to him.

Not to mention Wood did a heck of a lot off the field which made him very easy to like.  Even when he was a Yankee he held his annual bowling fundraiser in Chicago.

[🏀]

All good points on Kerry Wood, Stache. Good guy, as loyal to the Cubs as the fans were to him.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

I don't need to look at his stats, I know what his stats are. However, it is mid-May. When it comes to counting stats in baseball, talk to me in August/September and you won't be telling me about breaking Bonds' record.

He is better than Braun at his best? I imagine you are declaring JH's last two weeks his best? His last two weeks would make him the best baseball player ever then...when he is playing at his best.

Braun is tier-one elite along with Longoria, Votto, Pujols, Cabrera, AGon, Tulo, Cano, Bautista and Kemp. After those guys you can bring Hamilton into the conversation along with Prince, Adam Jones, Justin Upton, McCutch, Zobrist etc...

Take away Hamilton's best and worst season, and he still is a sub 4 WAR player, great investment. Go ahead though, I would like to see the Brewers throw their money away. His splits between Arlington Park and away is a big enough tell that Hamilton isn't a tier-one talent.

I have considered Hamilton a top player since he started with the Rangers. His WAR may be lower than Braun's, but the Rangers have a lot more talent and impact players than the Brewers do, especially on offense. Take away Braun from us, and we are back to the 60 win early 2000's Brewers. Take away Hamilton, and the Rangers are still likely a playoff team.

[🏀]

I have considered Hamilton a top player since he started with the Rangers. His WAR may be lower than Braun's, but the Rangers have a lot more talent and impact players than the Brewers do, especially on offense. Take away Braun from us, and we are back to the 60 win early 2000's Brewers. Take away Hamilton, and the Rangers are still likely a playoff team.

WAR does not relate to strength of team at all.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

WAR does not relate to strength of team at all.

Whether it does or not Braun and Hamilton are close in WAR. I still think that Josh Hamilton is better than Braun. Don't care what WAR says. 2 years ago he hit .359 with 30 HR's to win the MVP, even though it was in 130 games. Doubt Braun will ever hit .350.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Brewers get swept by the Lastros in 2 and are now losing to the worst team in baseball, Minnesota. It's getting embarassing.

[MUBurrow]

Brewers get swept by the Lastros in 2 and are now losing to the worst team in baseball, Minnesota. It's getting embarassing.

This is just not a good team, on paper or otherwise.   Braun's been Braun, Corey Hart has had a nice start (but even his average is down to .250), and Lucroy is a very good hitting catcher. But outside of that, there isn't much here. Aramis is a second half guy, but something is clearly wrong with Weeks (even beyond the recent wrist dinger).  Pitching is good at the top, but falls off very quickly (and Yo has some worrisome signs as well).  The bullpen has the fourth worst ERA in the NL, and importantly the worst WHIP in the majors.

I definitely get the perspective that its too early to panic, but this isn't an issue of a team that just needs time to balance out some statistical anomalies - it was a team with a very small margin of error that has since lost its starting 1B and SS for the year.  You can't be a threat with Brooks Conrad and Travis Ishikawa platooning at 1B combined with one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

[🏀]

Whether it does or not Braun and Hamilton are close in WAR. I still think that Josh Hamilton is better than Braun. Don't care what WAR says. 2 years ago he hit .359 with 30 HR's to win the MVP, even though it was in 130 games. Doubt Braun will ever hit .350.

One win in a WAR comparison is a lot.

I'm glad you don't care what WAR says, its only the best statistical comparison in baseball. Just shows you're willing to pay for a performance that has very little chance of being repeated. Wait....are you Jim Hendry? Or Cashman?

[🏀]

Whether it does or not

It does. Mute point.

[🏀]

Braun and Hamilton are close in WAR.

Brain and Hamilton are not close in WAR.

[🏀]

I still think that Josh Hamilton is better than Braun.

Except for all those 'stats ' that say otherwise.

[🏀]

Don't care what WAR says.

Idiot.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

I will give you that the adulation given to the '69 Cubs is pretty bizarre.

I don't think the team gets as much adulation as the individual players do.  The '69 Cubs had four future hall of famers, (and another at manager) and Santo, Jenkins, Williams, and Banks, understandably, still get a lot of love. 

I don't think this is all that exclusive to the Cubs.  Mays and McCovey never won a championship in SF but are referenced as immortals, (I'm pretty sure) Yount and Aaron and maybe Moliter all have statues at Miller Park, Carlton Fisk and Harold Baines never won anything on the south side, etc. but all still render quite a bit of adulation.  There are just a lot of Cubs fans, so you hear about their former greats often.

[buckchuckler]

Idiot.

If you adjust their respective Career WAR for the amount of games played they are about the same, with Hamilton coming out a little bit ahead.  Its great to say that Braun has a better WAR, but he has played more games. 

Also Braun has a negative Defensive WAR, Hamilton does not. 

The name calling is a nice touch though.  It really helps make your point. 

[buckchuckler]

Don't think I included either's first season in the majors. Math may be incorrect.

It was incorrect. Braun is 5.525 and JH is 4.55.

Still a full win better than Hamilton.

Not sure how you came to Braun's number.
He has a career WAR of 27.4.  If you take out the 1.9 for his first season, his WAR is 25.5.  If you divide that by his 5 years, his AVG WAR is 5.1.

Hamilton has a Career WAR of 23.4.  If you remove the 2.4 from his first season, it is 21.  If you divide that by 5 seasons it is 4.2.  Even if you take this season, I'm not getting your math, or missing something up myself. 

But like I said earlier, if you adjust for games played with their career WAR, Hamilton comes out a little ahead.  Braun has played in 166 more games than Hamilton has though.  

I find it silly to say that Hamilton isn't a tier one player.  Especially if you are putting Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Bautista there.  

And Hamilton plays a premium defensive position.  

[🏀]

If you adjust their respective Career WAR for the amount of games played they are about the same, with Hamilton coming out a little bit ahead.  Its great to say that Braun has a better WAR, but he has played more games.  

Also Braun has a negative Defensive WAR, Hamilton does not.  

The name calling is a nice touch though.  It really helps make your point.  

Except adjusting for the games Hamilton has missed proves the point that Braun is better. Hamilton has one more year of major league service, but has played less games. Yeah, swing and a miss chuckler. Adjusting for his injuries is pointless, especially when looking for value.

Ryan Braun has been the 7th best player since 2008 and Hamilton isn't in the top 20.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Except adjusting for the games Hamilton has missed proves the point that Braun is better. Hamilton has one more year of major league service, but has played less games. Yeah, swing and a miss chuckler. Adjusting for his injuries is pointless, especially when looking for value.

Ryan Braun has been the 7th best player since 2008 and Hamilton isn't in the top 20.

Hamilton usually has a great year (this year) and then an off year, causing his stats to even out a lot more. He hit .359 2 years ago, .298 last year, .392 so far this year. Braun does the same thing too but with a less dramatic rise/drop. If Hamilton makes those "off" years better his stats are better than Braun's. What if Hamilton didn't miss all those games and played the same amount that Braun plays every year? Who's better then? Also there's no need for the name calling.

[MUBurrow]

You can't say that Hamilton's WAR gap accounting for games missed and not isn't relevant when the whole conversation began trying to figure out how much he's worth in trade or FA. An assumption of the risk conversation like that is inherently dependent upon comparing the player he is when he plays to the probability he will be that player for any length of time.  That is, I agree with PTM in relying on WAR, but very much disagree that a smart evaluation of the player means simply looking at WAR without any variables or adjustments. 

Hamilton, when he's on the field consistently and has his life together is absolutely a tier 1 player. But that doesn't mean that his value is equal to that standard due to the risk. I think ya'll disagree way less than you're pretending to.

[🏀]

You can't say that Hamilton's WAR gap accounting for games missed and not isn't relevant when the whole conversation began trying to figure out how much he's worth in trade or FA. An assumption of the risk conversation like that is inherently dependent upon comparing the player he is when he plays to the probability he will be that player for any length of time.  That is, I agree with PTM in relying on WAR, but very much disagree that a smart evaluation of the player means simply looking at WAR without any variables or adjustments. 

Hamilton, when he's on the field consistently and has his life together is absolutely a tier 1 player. But that doesn't mean that his value is equal to that standard due to the risk. I think ya'll disagree way less than you're pretending to.

Look at me, pretending to like Braun and getting in an argument over it.

I'm ashamed.

[buckchuckler]

Except adjusting for the games Hamilton has missed proves the point that Braun is better. Hamilton has one more year of major league service, but has played less games. Yeah, swing and a miss chuckler. Adjusting for his injuries is pointless, especially when looking for value.

Ryan Braun has been the 7th best player since 2008 and Hamilton isn't in the top 20.

Don't get your panties in a bunch.  No need to get belligerent. 

And you're the one swinging and missing.  WAR represents who gives their team a better chance of winning.  When they are playing, Hamilton makes more of a difference than Braun. 

Their WARs show that Hamilton makes more of an impact.  Basically, Hamilton is better.  Braun is better at being healthy.  Can you guarantee that Braun will be more healthy moving forward? 

Braun has a negative defensive WAR.  Meaning you could pull any old outfielder out of AAA and they would be better.  That has to be accounted for. 

[Bocephys]

Don't get your panties in a bunch.  No need to get belligerent. 

And you're the one swinging and missing.  WAR represents who gives their team a better chance of winning.  When they are playing, Hamilton makes more of a difference than Braun. 

Their WARs show that Hamilton makes more of an impact.  Basically, Hamilton is better.  Braun is better at being healthy.  Can you guarantee that Braun will be more healthy moving forward? 

Braun has a negative defensive WAR.  Meaning you could pull any old outfielder out of AAA and they would be better.  That has to be accounted for. 

I've got no dog in this fight, but aren't his defensive liabilities already being accounted for in his WAR?

[🏀]

Don't get your panties in a bunch.  No need to get belligerent. 

And you're the one swinging and missing.  WAR represents who gives their team a better chance of winning.  When they are playing, Hamilton makes more of a difference than Braun. 

Their WARs show that Hamilton makes more of an impact.  Basically, Hamilton is better.  Braun is better at being healthy.  Can you guarantee that Braun will be more healthy moving forward? 

Braun has a negative defensive WAR.  Meaning you could pull any old outfielder out of AAA and they would be better.  That has to be accounted for. 

This entire statement shows you have no idea what the concept behind WAR is.

[🏀]

Let's all just agree that if JH wasn't on a absolute tear(in a contract year) right now, this discussion wouldn't even happen.

[TallTitan34]

Looks like I'm getting to the party a little late.  Not to personally attack you MUfanatic4life but I disagree with everything you've mentioned here.

Rizzo is the least likely guy for the Cubs to trade.  You have a better shot at getting Castro than Rizzo.

Bryan LaHair (bycracky) is just Micah Hoffpauir 2.0. Both are guys who spent too long in the minors and put up some solid numbers upon being called up.  I think the Cubs would be more than willing to take an A level prospect for LaHair (bycracky).

Ryan Braun is a much better player than Josh Hamilton.  The only way Josh Hamilton is better than Braun is defensively, and that really doesn't matter.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Let's all just agree that if JH wasn't on a absolute tear(in a contract year) right now, this discussion wouldn't even happen.

What about the MVP year 2 years ago? Hamilton has been overall amazing since he joined the Rangers 4 years ago, and you don't see that. Don't tell me that WAR proves Braun is far better, because if Braun misses as much time as Hamilton does on a yearly basis it is much closer. The tear he is on and the fact that he is a FA next winter AND the fact that we apparently have a chance to get him and add another MVP caliber player is what has me excited.