2012 MLB Thread

[wadesworld]

What about the MVP year 2 years ago? Hamilton has been overall amazing since he joined the Rangers 4 years ago, and you don't see that. Don't tell me that WAR proves Braun is far better, because if Braun misses as much time as Hamilton does on a yearly basis it is much closer. The tear he is on and the fact that he is a FA next winter AND the fact that we apparently have a chance to get him and add another MVP caliber player is what has me excited.

The problem is Braun doesn't miss the time that Hamilton does. Hamilton is injury prone (and has substance abuse problems) that have caused his career to go on pause multiple times. Braun has had minor injuries throughout his career. Grant Hill would have been better than Kobe if he had stayed healthy. Ken Griffey Jr. would've been better than Barry Bonds (steroid use or not) if he stayed healthy. Greg Oden would've been better than Andrew Bynum if he had stayed healthy. Injuries are something that you take into account when you are looking at signing someone. Nobody is going to pay Greg Oden the money that Dwight Howard is going to get because he was a big boy who could be awesome if he could JUST stay healthy.

I hope the Brewers don't get Hamilton. They need to start rebuilding through their minor league system and start making a well rounded lineup rather than being completely 1 dimensional and relying on the long ball. You can get by having 2 stars in the middle of the order and not being very balanced otherwise, but you'll never win a World Series that way. I would give anything to see the Brewers finally field a team that can actually produce runs without the long ball. How many times do the Brewers get a leadoff double and the guy is still standing on 2nd at the end of the inning? Or have the bases loaded with no outs and end up with 1 run. Most frustrating team to watch, even when they are having success.

Look at the Cardinals. Do they sign "big name" guys? Sure, but they're always older guys who are past their prime for low risk, high reward, short term deals in complimentary rolls to their actual stars. Look at Albert Pujols. A guy who could've been a career Cardinal, one of the best players in history, who they could've spent $200 million to make it all happen but instead they use all the money to solidify multiple spots and are much better because of it.

The Brewers can't afford to spend $125 million+ on 1 player past his prime, nor should they. They need to fill the multiple holes with multiple new players rather than try to fill multiple holes with 1 player. It just doesn't work, just like the easy fix rarely works (Miami Heat, Phillidolphia Eagles, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, LA Angels, etc.).

[Bocephys]

What about the MVP year 2 years ago? Hamilton has been overall amazing since he joined the Rangers 4 years ago, and you don't see that. Don't tell me that WAR proves Braun is far better, because if Braun misses as much time as Hamilton does on a yearly basis it is much closer. The tear he is on and the fact that he is a FA next winter AND the fact that we apparently have a chance to get him and add another MVP caliber player is what has me excited.

You could use that logic to be argue anything.

For example:
If Braun hits as few homers as Juan Pierre on a yearly basis than their value is much closer.

Braun has proven the ability to stay healthy, thus he is more valuable because of the guaranteed production.  You could argue that Hamilton at his peak is better than Braun at his peak (which may be what you're trying to do), but you can't use total production and notaccount for the risk that Hamilton presents from an injury perspective.

[buckchuckler]

This entire statement shows you have no idea what the concept behind WAR is.

Please enlighten me oh great one.  You are wisdom incarnate. 

And again where were you getting your WAR numbers and how do you know that Braun will continue to be healthy and Hamilton will not? 

You are being a blind homer if you think either guys is significantly better than the other.

Yes, the dWar is included in the overall WAR, just showing there are weaknesses in Braun's game the Hamilton doesn't have. 

[Hards Alumni]

Please enlighten me oh great one.  You are wisdom incarnate. 

And again where were you getting your WAR numbers and how do you know that Braun will continue to be healthy and Hamilton will not? 

You are being a blind homer if you think either guys is significantly better than the other.

Yes, the dWar is included in the overall WAR, just showing there are weaknesses in Braun's game the Hamilton doesn't have. 

IIRC PTM is a cubs fan.

[🏀]

IIRC PTM is a cubs fan.

Correct.

[🏀]

And again where were you getting your WAR numbers and how do you know that Braun will continue to be healthy and Hamilton will not? 
 

Fangraphs.

I don't know if Braun will continue to be healthy. What I do know is there is a much better chance that he stays healthy than Josh Hamilton staying healthy. Which is basically the real argument here.

You are being a blind homer if you think either guys is significantly better than the other.
 

Not a Brewers fan and have a dislike for Braun as a person. Hell of a player though. I don't think Braun is significantly better than Hamilton, however, I do think that he is 1 win better than Hamilton. I also put Hamilton is a 'tier' below Braun.

If you notice, all of my posts include statistics which I use to evaluate players. All I've seen from the Hamilton posts is that 1.) He won MVP two years ago, 2.) He's injured, a lot 3.) He's the best player ever...when he's at his best.

Yes, the dWar is included in the overall WAR, just showing there are weaknesses in Braun's game the Hamilton doesn't have. 

Using the same logic you use for Hamilton's injury being a negative to his WAR, Braun's defense makes him an even better offensive player!

[MerrittsMustache]

According to the MLB Elo Player Ratings, Hamilton is #357 all-time and Braun is #367. In other words, it's a wash.

The Elo Rating System was actually created by a former Marquette professor so you know it has to be the most accurate rating system out there 

[🏀]

According to the MLB Elo Player Ratings, Hamilton is #357 all-time and Braun is #367. In other words, it's a wash.

The Elo Rating System was actually created by a former Marquette professor so you know it has to be the most accurate rating system out there 

Was it bamamarquette? If not, hogwash.

[buckchuckler]

Fangraphs.

I don't know if Braun will continue to be healthy. What I do know is there is a much better chance that he stays healthy than Josh Hamilton staying healthy. Which is basically the real argument here.

Not a Brewers fan and have a dislike for Braun as a person. Hell of a player though. I don't think Braun is significantly better than Hamilton, however, I do think that he is 1 win better than Hamilton. I also put Hamilton is a 'tier' below Braun.

If you notice, all of my posts include statistics which I use to evaluate players. All I've seen from the Hamilton posts is that 1.) He won MVP two years ago, 2.) He's injured, a lot 3.) He's the best player ever...when he's at his best.

Using the same logic you use for Hamilton's injury being a negative to his WAR, Braun's defense makes him an even better offensive player!

OK well, Baseballreference.com gives different WAR numbers, so there is even some play in the stat there it seems, which is always nice. 

I haven't said any of those things about Hamilton, I simply adjusted the WAR for games played because Hamilton has been injured.  Certainly, that is a point for Braun, but if you want to compare the players while they are on the field, Hamilton comes out ahead.

Both player have the same career BA.  .313. 
Braun averages 36 HR and 118 RBI per 162 games played.
Hamilton averages 35 HR and 122 RBI per 162 games played. 
Braun averages 125k and 54 BB per 162 games played
Hamilton averages 127K and 57 BB per 162.
Braun slugs .566
Hamilton slugs .558
Braun's OBP is .372
Hamilton's OBP is .371


So when they are playing, they are basically the same player, offensively speaking.  In fact on Braun's Baseball Reference page, the most similar hitter?  You guessed it Josh Hamilton. 
Defensively speaking Hamilton plays a more important, more difficult position and he plays it better than Braun plays a less important less difficult position. 

Both players are legitimately great.  I don't see how you can say one is definitively better than the other.  So you don't have a Braun bias fine, it must be something against Hamilton then.  You are basing your entire argument on one stat, that obviously isn't perfect because 2 very credible sites give different numbers.  Maybe you should look a little past what Billy Beane tells you.

[buckchuckler]

Correct.

Ahhhh, so you don't like Hamilton because the Cubs traded him for nothing.  OK that makes sense. 

[🏀]

Ahhhh, so you don't like Hamilton because the Cubs traded him for nothing.  OK that makes sense. 

Yes. I am terribly upset that the Cubs traded Hamilton for nothing.

Except that Hendry was not going to use the Cubs Rule 5 pick. The Cubs did not have room to give Hamilton a roster spot for the entire 2007 season, nor did he deserve a roster spot on a division winning team.

At the Winter Meetings, the Reds pre-arranged a deal for the Cubs to use their Rule 5 pick on Hamilton to prevent any other teams from picking him up. Hendry made $50,000 for doing nothing. Great move.

Dumb.

[MerrittsMustache]

Yes. I am terribly upset that the Cubs traded Hamilton for nothing.

Except that Hendry was not going to use the Cubs Rule 5 pick. The Cubs did not have room to give Hamilton a roster spot for the entire 2007 season, nor did he deserve a roster spot on a division winning team.

At the Winter Meetings, the Reds pre-arranged a deal for the Cubs to use their Rule 5 pick on Hamilton to prevent any other teams from picking him up. Hendry made $50,000 for doing nothing. Great move.

Dumb.

If the Rays had any idea of how good Hamilton was going to become, they never would have left him off the 40-man roster after 2006.

If the Cubs had any idea of how good Hamilton was going to become, they would have selected him, kept him and not signed Soriano.

If the Reds had any idea of how good Hamilton was going to become, they never would have traded him for Edinson Volquez.

At the time, each of those moves looked like the right one.

[TallTitan34]

I don't understand the argument that Hamilton is better.

And as a Cubs fan I should be biased against Braun.

[MerrittsMustache]

I don't understand the argument that Hamilton is better.

And as a Cubs fan I should be biased against Braun.

I don't care what team Braun plays for. I'm biased against him because he's a cheater, which makes all of his numbers questionable, IMO.

[MUBurrow]

I (and I think most GMs) would take Braun over Hamilton to start a team as of today (not taking other guys into account). They both have interesting health questions.  Braun's being performance that will be questioned by steroids today, and whether he will have the quick decline of steroid users later vs Hamilton's seemingly constant health problems and drug/alcohol dangers today, and what affect his hard living will have on his later years.  In my entirely subjective opinion (but I'm guessing the opinion of most GMs) this, combined with Braun being a year and a half younger, washes out Braun. I think Braun is a much more surefire bet to give you more top production over the next 5 years than Hamilton is. Projecting much farther ahead than that with either guy gets very difficult, but I think Hamilton bears more risk age 30+ than Braun. Even if both were to precipitously decline due to the above risks, Hamilton is much more likely to simply flame out of baseball never to play again, whereas Braun will likely give some kind of return.

Lastly, I don't put too much stock in Hamilton's added value as a CF beyond the next year or two, because with his miles I don't see him sticking predominantly in center much longer than that.

[buckchuckler]

Yes. I am terribly upset that the Cubs traded Hamilton for nothing.

Except that Hendry was not going to use the Cubs Rule 5 pick. The Cubs did not have room to give Hamilton a roster spot for the entire 2007 season, nor did he deserve a roster spot on a division winning team.

At the Winter Meetings, the Reds pre-arranged a deal for the Cubs to use their Rule 5 pick on Hamilton to prevent any other teams from picking him up. Hendry made $50,000 for doing nothing. Great move.

Dumb.

Yeah, Lord knows Daryl Ward was so much more deserving, and a much better risk/reward.  Good to know that you still think the 50k was better than having Hamilton.  Or better than not even having him and not being another sweet trade by Hendry. 

Fact is the Cubs had him and traded him for nothing.  Just another Cubbie Occurrence! 

[buckchuckler]

As for starting a team, of course most GMs would take Braun as he is younger.  But if you needed to win a championship this year, I don't think there would be much of a difference in the percentage of GMs that would prefer Hamilton to Braun.  I have to think any GM would be thrilled to have either. 

[🏀]

Yeah, Lord knows Daryl Ward was so much more deserving, and a much better risk/reward.  Good to know that you still think the 50k was better than having Hamilton.  Or better than not even having him and not being another sweet trade by Hendry.  

Fact is the Cubs had him and traded him for nothing.  Just another Cubbie Occurrence!  

You're just baseball stupid. There's no point in continuing this debate with you.

[buckchuckler]

You're just baseball stupid. There's no point in continuing this debate with you.

No I'm not.  This is just a fun way to irritate some one taking this waaay to seriously.  I did notice that you didn't address the fact that their numbers are basically identical though. 

[buckchuckler]

You're just baseball stupid. There's no point in continuing this debate with you.

And again, just name calling, no points or anything.  Well played.

[🏀]

No I'm not.  This is just a fun way to irritate some one taking this waaay to seriously.  I did notice that you didn't address the fact that their numbers are basically identical though.  

Yes, you are baseball stupid. Your Daryle Ward comment proved it. I'm not irritated, you just have a very poor argument. I love baseball arguments. Attacking my favorite team which has no relevance further proves your baseball stupidity.

Their numbers are not 'basically identical', you had to adjust for time missed. Basically, back to WAR, Ryan Braun is a full win better.

Since 2009, Braun has been a top 10 player. Hamilton has not been a top 20 player, statistically.

Two different tiers.

[🏀]

And again, just name calling, no points or anything.  Well played.

There's no name calling, you're just baseball stupid. It's okay. I'm soccer stupid, football stupid, etc.

[buckchuckler]

Yes, you are baseball stupid. Your Daryle Ward comment proved it. I'm not irritated, you just have a very poor argument. Attacking my favorite team which has no relevance further proves your baseball stupidity.

Their numbers are not 'basically identical', you had to adjust for time missed. Basically, back to WAR, Ryan Braun is a full win better.

Since 2009, Braun has been a top 10 player. Hamilton has not been a top 20 player.

Two different tiers.

Yes.  I fully acknowledge that Josh Hamilton has gotten hurt.  I haven't denied that at all.  Yes that is a big advantage for Ryan Braun.  He has been healthy throughout his career.  

When they are on the field, they have about the same impact on the game.  That is all I am trying to say.  The shots were not at your team.  I figured you must have something against Hamilton.  Couldn't figure out anything else.  

Obviously the Daryl Ward comment was just to tweak you, because you're so smart, and I'm so dumb.  The comment was in no way part of my "argument" (on a different note I wasn't making an argument, you made it one.  I was just trying to make the point that when playing, both guys are about the same with their WAR.).  Clearly the Daryl Ward part was separate.  That's why it was in a different post than any of the Hamilton/Braun stuff.  

My point isn't that Hamilton is better.  It isn't that Braun is better.  It is that both players are great, both players are elite.  When they are on the field, they have just about an identical impact on the game.  

Again I know Hamilton has had injuries.  I know this has an impact on his free agent value.  I never commented that he should make more or less, whatever.

All I have been saying is that I do not see how you can put Braun in better tier than Hamilton.  They are what, 2 of the top 3 OFers?  Both have won 1 MVP.  

Did you know Eddie Collins has a better WAR than Lou Gehrig?  Or that Kenny Lofton has a better WAR than Ernie Banks?  Or that Carlos Beltran has a better WAR than Billy Williams, Andre Dawson and Yogi Berra?  

I think it is worthwhile to look at the big picture and not rely completely on one stat.

[buckchuckler]

There's no name calling, you're just baseball stupid. It's okay. I'm soccer stupid, football stupid, etc.

You may want to add baseball to your list as well.  Being able to look at one statistical category and take it as the end all be all doesn't make you baseball smart, unless maybe you invented it.  Bill James?  Is that you?

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Yes.  I fully acknowledge that Josh Hamilton has gotten hurt.  I haven't denied that at all.  Yes that is a big advantage for Ryan Braun.  He has been healthy throughout his career.  

When they are on the field, they have about the same impact on the game.  That is all I am trying to say.  The shots were not at your team.  I figured you must have something against Hamilton.  Couldn't figure out anything else.  

Obviously the Daryl Ward comment was just to tweak you, because you're so smart, and I'm so dumb.  The comment was in no way part of my "argument" (on a different note I wasn't making an argument, you made it one.  I was just trying to make the point that when playing, both guys are about the same with their WAR.).  Clearly the Daryl Ward part was separate.  That's why it was in a different post than any of the Hamilton/Braun stuff.  

My point isn't that Hamilton is better.  It isn't that Braun is better.  It is that both players are great, both players are elite.  When they are on the field, they have just about an identical impact on the game.  

Again I know Hamilton has had injuries.  I know this has an impact on his free agent value.  I never commented that he should make more or less, whatever.

All I have been saying is that I do not see how you can put Braun in better tier than Hamilton.  They are what, 2 of the top 3 OFers?  Both have won 1 MVP.  

Did you know Eddie Collins has a better WAR than Lou Gehrig?  Or that Kenny Lofton has a better WAR than Ernie Banks?  Or that Carlos Beltran has a better WAR than Billy Williams, Andre Dawson and Yogi Berra?  

I think it is worthwhile to look at the big picture and not rely completely on one stat.

+1000000000000