MUScoop
MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: Otule's Glass Eye on April 30, 2012, 04:12:30 PM
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Bryce Harper made his debut a few days back one of the most hyped prospects in history.
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Harper notched his first hit during the wave/mooning of Chad Billingsley
http://deadspin.com/5906055/bryce-harper-has-his-first-major-league-hit-possibly-because-dodgers-fans-were-mooning-their-own-pitcher (http://deadspin.com/5906055/bryce-harper-has-his-first-major-league-hit-possibly-because-dodgers-fans-were-mooning-their-own-pitcher)
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A lot of good young players in/coming up.
I'm hoping for another Golden Age of baseball to come around. Every team has some young players to be excited about.
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Braun hit 3 and was close to 4 home runs for the Brewers last night. Almost tied the record.
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yup, meanwhile Pujols is 0-April in home runs
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Braun hit 3 and was close to 4 home runs for the Brewers last night. Almost tied the record.
In San Diego. Where the ball never carries, especially this early in the season, and especially at night. That was the first 3 home run game in their ballpark's history.
He must be back on the 'roids. About time.
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In San Diego. Where the ball never carries, especially this early in the season, and especially at night. That was the first 3 home run game in their ballpark's history.
He must be back on the 'roids. About time.
That 4th ball he hit would've been a homer at Miller Park and half the other parks at least. Would've made history.
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In MVP runner up news... How about the tear Kemp has been on?
Really like what I have seen out of Dee Gordon as well.
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yup, meanwhile Pujols is 0-April in home runs
He needs his pharmacist or a ticket back to the National League.
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That 4th ball he hit would've been a homer at Miller Park and half the other parks at least. Would've made history.
he did make history: being the 1st 3 HR game at Petco
during last night's game they mentioned that more people have had 4 HR games than have had 3 HR plus a triple in a game, weird
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In MVP runner up news... How about the tear Kemp has been on?
Really like what I have seen out of Dee Gordon as well.
Dee Gordon is a good young player average doesnt show it but he is a fast guy who gets on base which you need in a leadoff hitter.
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Mat Gamel starting first baseman replacement for Fielder tore his ACL done for the year. Braun hurt as well. Second straight shutout for us. Not good.
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Mat Gamel starting first baseman replacement for Fielder tore his ACL done for the year. Braun hurt as well. Second straight shutout for us. Not good.
as a big brewers fan, its time to sell.
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as a big brewers fan, its time to sell.
What's there to sell really?
Gallardo?
Axford for sure.
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What's there to sell really?
Gallardo?
Axford for sure.
They won't sell as there really is no reason to at this stage, but Weeks, Hart, Greinke, and obviously Braun would net some prospects, especially as the trade deadline draws near.
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They won't sell as there really is no reason to at this stage, but Weeks, Hart, Greinke, and obviously Braun would net some prospects, especially as the trade deadline draws near.
Come on, you don't trade Braun. Never, ever. Generational talent.
Greinke can be worth something for sure.
Weeks and Hart can't net much given their contracts. Hart is what $9 million next season, not too terrible? Weeks will still be owed $20 million after the deadline.
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Die was cast for the Brewers this year when they let middle relief go all to hell.
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Greinke would bring a huge return, and Marcum could be a useful piece at the end of competing rotations that could net an either very young prospect or a middling developed prospect. Problem with Marcum is that his return diminishes every day, because while a useful 4th or 5th starter for a competing team, he probably wouldn't make a lot of teams playoff rotations. K-rod hasnt been great lately, but he's got a very good track record and teams always need bullpen help. Corey Hart has helped his value a lot lately, and would be under team control for two more years. Maybe Aoki generates a bit of interest at the deadline.
Braun, Weeks, Lucroy and Gallardo are the players under longer term team control and would never be traded.
Axford is an interesting case as he's very cheap for the next couple years and is a fan favorite. Personally, if a team was willing to pay for him, I'd definitely be willing to deal him. You never pay for saves, and I think keeping a closer for which other teams would give you a useful piece is a sin worse than paying a closer big money in free agency.
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I'll trade you Marmol for a bag of balls and a signed Yount jersey.
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as a big brewers fan, its time to sell.
I agree. The point about the bullpen is a very good point. But the play of Gamel was also going to be a big part of how this season turned out. There is no way that a combination of Travis Ishikawa, Brooks Conrad, and maybe Taylor Green is going to make things better.
Grienke is 100% in play right now. I'd be shocked if he was still on the team come July. At this point, its just waiting to see who sorts themselves out as strong buyers at the deadline.
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Come on, you don't trade Braun. Never, ever. Generational talent.
Greinke can be worth something for sure.
Weeks and Hart can't net much given their contracts. Hart is what $9 million next season, not too terrible? Weeks will still be owed $20 million after the deadline.
+1 If Greinke doesnt sign the extension by the trade deadline we need to trade him for prospects. Maybe a top 1B prospect? Anthony Rizzo is a 22 year old 1B in the Cubs AAA system hitting .375 with 7 homers so far but his spot is blocked in the bigs by LaHair. BRAUN WILL NEVER BE TRADED.
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Too early to sell now. At one point last year, they were 14-20. Plenty of time to turn it around.
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What's there to sell really?
Gallardo?
Axford for sure.
I don't want to see Gallardo leave even though he is performing bad this year. Axford is not a guy you trade he is one of if not the top closers in the game right now. He is being paid the minimum right now 500-550K. Hard to find a top closer for that price.
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Too early to sell now. At one point last year, they were 14-20. Plenty of time to turn it around.
Melvin is good at making blockbuster trades but not good at signing free agents. That Ramirez contract is killing me right now.
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Come on, you don't trade Braun. Never, ever. Generational talent.
Greinke can be worth something for sure.
Weeks and Hart can't net much given their contracts. Hart is what $9 million next season, not too terrible? Weeks will still be owed $20 million after the deadline.
I know that, you simply asked what there was to sell. Obviously they won't do that for the forseeable future (at least 4+ years).
It's surprising what teams will give up at the trade deadline if they feel they are only a guy or two away, especially if the Brewers kick in some cash.
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Melvin is good at making blockbuster trades but not good at signing free agents. That Ramirez contract is killing me right now.
Aram is not a March/April/May player.
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Too early to sell now. At one point last year, they were 14-20. Plenty of time to turn it around.
Agreed. Losing Gamel obviously isn't a good thing, but this is not the same as losing Prince Fielder. This is not an All-Star first baseman, and it never has been. With an extra Wild Card spot in play, it was obvious the Brewers wouldn't be as good this year as last year, but Gamel and Narveson can both be replaced (again, obviously not good to have those 2 out for the season, but it's a 5th starter and a #7 hitter who has never hit at the MLB level). Maybe Melvin makes a trade for a solid player who can fill in at short (or they finally, finally, mercifully move Hart to 1st and get Aoki in right and hitting 1...come on Ronald, it's time to realize that Rickie Weeks is not, has never been, and will never be a leadoff hitter...and if a team is going to buy Rickie, SELL HIM whether we are in contention or not!).
But the point is, at this point there is no point in looking at selling. We're what, 35ish games into a 162 game season? Aramis will get going, Braun will still be a top 5 player, Hart will be good, Weeks HAS to pick it up at least a LITTLE bit, Gonzalez and Lucroy will be solid. The pitching will get stronger, but not as good as last year. We will compete. My money is we miss the Playoffs, but I would be more surprised if we are out of it early than if we won the division.
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Agreed. Losing Gamel obviously isn't a good thing, but this is not the same as losing Prince Fielder. This is not an All-Star first baseman, and it never has been. With an extra Wild Card spot in play, it was obvious the Brewers wouldn't be as good this year as last year, but Gamel and Narveson can both be replaced (again, obviously not good to have those 2 out for the season, but it's a 5th starter and a #7 hitter who has never hit at the MLB level). Maybe Melvin makes a trade for a solid player who can fill in at short (or they finally, finally, mercifully move Hart to 1st and get Aoki in right and hitting 1...come on Ronald, it's time to realize that Rickie Weeks is not, has never been, and will never be a leadoff hitter...and if a team is going to buy Rickie, SELL HIM whether we are in contention or not!).
But the point is, at this point there is no point in looking at selling. We're what, 35ish games into a 162 game season? Aramis will get going, Braun will still be a top 5 player, Hart will be good, Weeks HAS to pick it up at least a LITTLE bit, Gonzalez and Lucroy will be solid. The pitching will get stronger, but not as good as last year. We will compete. My money is we miss the Playoffs, but I would be more surprised if we are out of it early than if we won the division.
I agree with a lot of this. But for me, the biggest issue is that this team is not as good as last year's team, which already wasnt good enough. Pitching is worse, lineup is worse, bullpen is worse. So at that point, you need to hope to be the hottest team in the playoffs, and I just dont see it with this squad. Losing Gamel isn't like losing Prince, but now we've lost Gamel and Prince. Went from Prince to Travis Ishikawa, who was a castoff from the team starting Brandon Belt and Aubrey Huff at the position.
So while I agree that the Crew should largely wait to sell for another month +, my only concern is the diminishing returns they might enjoy with a guy like Marcum. Anyone who buys Marcum buys on the regular season #s - especially after last years disastrous playoff run. So if you can get something for him now from a team like the Angels or Detroit that have end-of-the-rotation issues, I think you do it. At the deadline, teams who know they're in the playoffs won't be interested, because he won't make their playoff rotation.
I just think that with one of baseball's worst farm systems, and maybe another half decade of this kind of production from Braun, the team has better odds of doing something special if they rearm for another chance to sell the farm in 3-4 years than they do by trying to win today.
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Agreed. Losing Gamel obviously isn't a good thing, but this is not the same as losing Prince Fielder. This is not an All-Star first baseman, and it never has been. With an extra Wild Card spot in play, it was obvious the Brewers wouldn't be as good this year as last year, but Gamel and Narveson can both be replaced (again, obviously not good to have those 2 out for the season, but it's a 5th starter and a #7 hitter who has never hit at the MLB level). Maybe Melvin makes a trade for a solid player who can fill in at short (or they finally, finally, mercifully move Hart to 1st and get Aoki in right and hitting 1...come on Ronald, it's time to realize that Rickie Weeks is not, has never been, and will never be a leadoff hitter...and if a team is going to buy Rickie, SELL HIM whether we are in contention or not!).
But the point is, at this point there is no point in looking at selling. We're what, 35ish games into a 162 game season? Aramis will get going, Braun will still be a top 5 player, Hart will be good, Weeks HAS to pick it up at least a LITTLE bit, Gonzalez and Lucroy will be solid. The pitching will get stronger, but not as good as last year. We will compete. My money is we miss the Playoffs, but I would be more surprised if we are out of it early than if we won the division.
Talking about selling now is premature, but more just in the sense that a clear market of buyers and sellers has yet to sort itself out. You're right, its far too early, but I guess I'm just not as optimistic about this year's team, and I think that restocking the farm for a run in 2-4 years is better than, say, signing Derek Lee (which is being tossed around per mlbtraderumors.com).
There is no doubt this team can play better. As to Rickie, he's striking out at a higher clip than the last few years, which is concerning, but his walk rate is also up, and his BABIP is .217. .217!!!! That's horrendous luck so far. I agree that he's not a leadoff hitter, or, at least that his talent is better used elsewhere in a lineup, but he's not a bad player by any means, he's having a rough start to a year.
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+1 If Greinke doesnt sign the extension by the trade deadline we need to trade him for prospects. Maybe a top 1B prospect? Anthony Rizzo is a 22 year old 1B in the Cubs AAA system hitting .375 with 7 homers so far but his spot is blocked in the bigs by LaHair. BRAUN WILL NEVER BE TRADED.
Seriously????
Rizzo is the future 1B of the Cubs. He was drafted by Boston when Jed was there. Then Jed traded for him (in the A. Gonzalez deal) when he was in SD. Now Jed trades to get him in Chicago. NO CHANCE Rizzo gets traded. LaHair either moves to corner outfield or is playing in a different city come July.
Edited to add: What would the Cubs want with a half-season of Greinke when they will be 10-20 games under .500 in July?
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Greinke can be worth something for sure.
This could be interesting this year. My understanding is that as of this season, a team that trades for a rental WILL NOT get the compensatory picks if he leaves via free agency. I remember seeing somewhere that the player must be on your roster for one year in order to get the compensatory picks.
That could lower what teams are willing to offer for players in the last year of their contracts.
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The Tigers were never able to score off of him, so I have always had a respectful hate of Mariano Rivera, but I feel awful for him. Shagging flies like he had before every game for his entire career and he blows out his knee.
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The Tigers were never able to score off of him, so I have always had a respectful hate of Mariano Rivera, but I feel awful for him. Shagging flies like he had before every game for his entire career and he blows out his knee.
Yeah, its truly a sad day for baseball. Deadspin had a pretty cool article just observing ten years of New York papers theorizing that Mo was too old and washed up. One of the in-retrospect funniest lines, referring to some bout of struggles for Mo:
"Remember when the Yankees went after Goose Gossage even though they had Sparky Lyle? When does George start giving Eric Gagne the eye?"
Definitely the greatest closer ever, and one of the best pitchers of my lifetime. Really sad to see it possibly end like that.
http://deadspin.com/5901123/10-years-of-newspapers-declaring-that-mariano-rivera-is-too-old?tag=marianorivera
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Seriously????
Rizzo is the future 1B of the Cubs. He was drafted by Boston when Jed was there. Then Jed traded for him (in the A. Gonzalez deal) when he was in SD. Now Jed trades to get him in Chicago. NO CHANCE Rizzo gets traded. LaHair either moves to corner outfield or is playing in a different city come July.
Edited to add: What would the Cubs want with a half-season of Greinke when they will be 10-20 games under .500 in July?
Rizzo has been traded twice and it could happen again. Yes, Jed loves him obviously but he has dumped him twice only to pick him up on a differnet team. The way LaHair is playing I doubt they will dump him or change his position. He isn't an outfielder. It is an outside shot something like this would happen thought I'm just throwing out ideas. We have Nick Ramirez who we drafted last year who I like. Hit .380 in 25 games with 8 HR's in the rookie league before he got moved up to A ball where he really slowed down. There's this HS 1B named Joey Gallo from the same HS as Shabazz Muhammad, he's 6'4 200 lbs called the best power prospect in the draft. Was rated top 25 pick but has dropped a few spots in the last rankings. We have picks 27,28 and he's rated around #30. Scouts say he has the potential to hit 40+ HR in the big leagues.
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Brewers should look at what the Rangers are doing. Raising their drafted prospects along with signing international players. Last July the Rangers signed 2 top Dominican 16 year olds both being called future stars. A month or two later they signed another top Dominican 16 year old. The Marcum trade was a one year success, back to reality it is. Now that we have depleted our farm system the future looks bleak.
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We've had the most devastating group of injuries the ast week that I can remember this team having. Losing Narveson, Gamel, Gonzalez, 3 starters for the year, and Gomez out for undetermined amount of time with a hobbled Braun. They better be careful with his achilles. Don't want to see what happened to Ryan Howard all over again.
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Rizzo has been traded twice and it could happen again. Yes, Jed loves him obviously but he has dumped him twice only to pick him up on a differnet team. The way LaHair is playing I doubt they will dump him or change his position. He isn't an outfielder. It is an outside shot something like this would happen thought I'm just throwing out ideas. We have Nick Ramirez who we drafted last year who I like. Hit .380 in 25 games with 8 HR's in the rookie league before he got moved up to A ball where he really slowed down. There's this HS 1B named Joey Gallo from the same HS as Shabazz Muhammad, he's 6'4 200 lbs called the best power prospect in the draft. Was rated top 25 pick but has dropped a few spots in the last rankings. We have picks 27,28 and he's rated around #30. Scouts say he has the potential to hit 40+ HR in the big leagues.
Wrong. Jed has NEVER dumped Rizzo. He drafted Rizzo when he was in Boston. Then, after Jed went to be the GM of San Diego, he GOT Rizzo as part of the Adrian Gonzalez trade. And then, after coming to Chicago, he traded FOR Rizzo again. Not to mention, Rizzo is 22, LaHair is 29. And LaHair has played the corner outfield spots both in the minors and for the Cubs.
And the Cubs will not be buyers at the deadline - I ask again, why would the Cubs trade a left-handed power hitting first baseman who is 22, for a few months of Greinke? Answer - never going to happen.
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And the Cubs will not be buyers at the deadline - I ask again, why would the Cubs trade a left-handed power hitting first baseman who is 22, for a few months of Greinke? Answer - never going to happen.
Wait. Why would the Cubs trade anything for Greinke? This whole argument is flawed right there.
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Wait. Why would the Cubs trade anything for Greinke? This whole argument is flawed right there.
They wouldn't. That's the point I was attempting to make in my long-winded response. But I was responding specifically to the poster claiming the Brewers could get Rizzo.
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Rizzo has been traded twice and it could happen again. Yes, Jed loves him obviously but he has dumped him twice only to pick him up on a differnet team. The way LaHair is playing I doubt they will dump him or change his position. He isn't an outfielder. It is an outside shot something like this would happen thought I'm just throwing out ideas. We have Nick Ramirez who we drafted last year who I like. Hit .380 in 25 games with 8 HR's in the rookie league before he got moved up to A ball where he really slowed down. There's this HS 1B named Joey Gallo from the same HS as Shabazz Muhammad, he's 6'4 200 lbs called the best power prospect in the draft. Was rated top 25 pick but has dropped a few spots in the last rankings. We have picks 27,28 and he's rated around #30. Scouts say he has the potential to hit 40+ HR in the big leagues.
Should the Cubs throw in Castro and Brett Jackson too? If anything, the Cubs would dump LaHair at the deadline to try to get a couple average prospects.
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They wouldn't. That's the point I was attempting to make in my long-winded response. But I was responding specifically to the poster claiming the Brewers could get Rizzo.
I wish the Brewers could get Rizzo but I know I'm just dreaming up scenarios. I have heard rumors with the Brewers about signing Derrek Lee, or trading for Red Sox 1B prospect Lars Anderson who has fallen off the radar. But he strikes out a lot. Maybe the best choice at this point is to draft someone like Gallo.
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I wish the Brewers could get Rizzo but I know I'm just dreaming up scenarios. I have heard rumors with the Brewers about signing Derrek Lee, or trading for Red Sox 1B prospect Lars Anderson who has fallen off the radar. But he strikes out a lot. Maybe the best choice at this point is to draft someone like Gallo.
Matt LaPorta would be available for the right offer.
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Matt LaPorta would be available for the right offer.
Kevin Youkilis is probably on the block now, too, with the emergence of Middlebrooks. Youk is one year removed from a 5 year streak of excellent (average season = .297 21 85, 2nd highest OBP in AL, .903 OPS, GG quality defense). Health a big concern, but Red Sox will likely pick up a chunk of his salary.
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Matt LaPorta would be available for the right offer.
eh Laporta was a bust in his time in the majors I know he's raking so far this year but it could be a bad choice.
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Now that they have the one game playoff for wild card teams will that count as a post season appearance? I believe the Yankees have 50 (maybe 49) post season appearances since 1921.
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Now that they have the one game playoff for wild card teams will that count as a post season appearance? I believe the Yankees have 50 (maybe 49) post season appearances since 1921.
Yes I think it will but a few years back when as an example the Twins played the White Sox in a 1 game playoff it says on the White Sox postseason history on ESPN that that apparently doesn't count as a playoff appearance, so maybe it will maybe it won't but I think it will.
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Yes I think it will but a few years back when as an example the Twins played the White Sox in a 1 game playoff it says on the White Sox postseason history on ESPN that that apparently doesn't count as a playoff appearance, so maybe it will maybe it won't but I think it will.
When the White Sox beat the twins in that game it was not a playoff game but "an extension" of the regular season to determine the division winner. The wild card teams have made the playoffs and the game will be counted as a playoff game. You are right it will count as a playoff game.
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There's some rumors going around baseball that the Brewers may make a push at Josh Hamilton next offseason.
http://brewcrewcentral.wordpress.com/2012/05/14/what-should-the-brewers-do-and-the-josh-hamilton-rumors/
Also heard this rumor last night on the MLB channel. They also mentioned a possible K-Rod for Kevin Youkilis on the Red Sox deal? Said it would work out for both teams. But back to the Hamilton rumors it says Texas has offered him extensions for 4 or 5 years but for under 100 million because they are worried about his age, 31, his injury problems, averaging almost 50 games missed the past 3 years, and his past drug problems. Hamilton has told Texas he won't give them a hometeam bias. The Brewers have 50 million available on the payroll next year, but they are currently trying to get Greinke to sign an extension and he will probably get a paycheck of 15-20 million. So assuming it would work out down the road we could offer a deal of maybe 6-7 years of 140-150 million? Hamilton is a former #1 overall pick and has been the best overall player in the big leagues the past few years, winning the MVP 2 years ago and currently leading for the first triple crown in awhile (I'm not sure when the last one was) When he is on, he is better than Braun. I think it is worth a shot. Since other teams are iffy on him, we could stand out if we make a big offer.
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If we don't pay Fielder's price for a guy that is younger and much more durable, there is no way we go after Hamilton. I think the rumors stem from Hamilton's mentor being the new Brewers hitting coach. I would be shocked, but also thrilled if we got Hamilton. However, he has only averaged about 125 games. I highly doubt he gets Fielder money, but he isn't nearly as durable as Prince.
As for K-Rod, I wouldn't mind that trade. I don't know much about Youkilis now that the Red Sox are rumored to be looking to get rid of him, but he used to be a very good player. Our bullpen has been brutal, but K-Rod has been a reason for that, so I think if Youkilis turns his season around, it would be a great trade.
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Too good for the MLB thread?
Anyway...Prince was worth keeping over Josh Heroin (see what I did there?). High risk for lesser games played, baggage, and tier-two eliteness in the MLB.
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there is 50 mil on the payroll next year and if Greinke gets his extension he takes probably 15-20 mil off the board. Hamilton would prob get a deal for 15-20 mil instead of the 25-30 mil he would get if he had no problems. Rangers are worried about his durability and past problems. But for his ability 130 games really isnt bad. If somehow we manage to sign BOTH Greinke and Hamilton there would likely around 10 mil left, and if they don't resign Marcum (which I wouldn't mind because he has a dead arm and I'm ready for Peralta to come up) then there's 10 mil to use on cheap players. There's a few prospects I know of that could replace the other guys leaving. This is extremely unlikely to happen but it's got me excited.
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Too good for the MLB thread?
Anyway...Prince was worth keeping over Josh Heroin (see what I did there?). High risk for lesser games played, baggage, and tier-two eliteness in the MLB.
tier-2 eliteness? Look at his stats right now. He is on pace to break Barry Bonds' HR record among other things. He won the MVP 2 years ago. He is better than Braun at his best and if he can stay healthy for 150 games+ he is the best player in baseball.
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tier-2 eliteness? Look at his stats right now. He is on pace to break Barry Bonds' HR record among other things. He won the MVP 2 years ago. He is better than Braun at his best and if he can stay healthy for 150 games+ he is the best player in baseball.
Baseball executives get in trouble when they pay players for what they did...and not what they are going to do.
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Baseball executives get in trouble when they pay players for what they did...and not what they are going to do.
He's only 30 which is only a year or 2 older than Braun I believe which means he is at or nearing his peak. Apparently he is still learning small things about the game. He is one of the few 5 tool players in baseball. He is the best player in baseball right now, and he has pretty much been for the past 3 years. Yes there is concern about durability but I'd rather have 130 games with MVP #'s than 150 games from overpriced Ramirez or Weeks.
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Weeks and Ramirez aren't getting paid the money and years that Hamilton will get. No one is saying that Hamilton isn't one of the best players in the league, it's just if I had to commit big money to someone for an extended period of time, I'd probably go with Prince. Since the Brewers didn't do that, I'm guessing they aren't going to be involved in the Hamilton bidding.
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tier-2 eliteness? Look at his stats right now. He is on pace to break Barry Bonds' HR record among other things. He won the MVP 2 years ago. He is better than Braun at his best and if he can stay healthy for 150 games+ he is the best player in baseball.
I don't need to look at his stats, I know what his stats are. However, it is mid-May. When it comes to counting stats in baseball, talk to me in August/September and you won't be telling me about breaking Bonds' record.
He is better than Braun at his best? I imagine you are declaring JH's last two weeks his best? His last two weeks would make him the best baseball player ever then...when he is playing at his best.
Braun is tier-one elite along with Longoria, Votto, Pujols, Cabrera, AGon, Tulo, Cano, Bautista and Kemp. After those guys you can bring Hamilton into the conversation along with Prince, Adam Jones, Justin Upton, McCutch, Zobrist etc...
Take away Hamilton's best and worst season, and he still is a sub 4 WAR player, great investment. Go ahead though, I would like to see the Brewers throw their money away. His splits between Arlington Park and away is a big enough tell that Hamilton isn't a tier-one talent.
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So I agree that there is no way that the Brewers throw money at a guy like Hamilton. But, on the other hand, I think that I would be happier stomaching his risk than Prince's. The unique type of risk that Hamilton's drug issues represent isn't as surefire a decline as Prince's stress on his knees as a power hitter. In fact, I would also be happier with Hamilton's risk than really any pitcher, money being equal. I'm much more afraid of the Brewers investing money into Greinke or another SP long term than I am Hamilton, Prince, etc. However PTM makes perhaps the most valuable point that Hamilton's drug issues actually serve to distract from his true stats - which are the real reason the Brewers wont and shouldn't invest.
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I don't need to look at his stats, I know what his stats are. However, it is mid-May. When it comes to counting stats in baseball, talk to me in August/September and you won't be telling me about breaking Bonds' record.
He is better than Braun at his best? I imagine you are declaring JH's last two weeks his best? His last two weeks would make him the best baseball player ever then...when he is playing at his best.
Braun is tier-one elite along with Longoria, Votto, Pujols, Cabrera, AGon, Tulo, Cano, Bautista and Kemp. After those guys you can bring Hamilton into the conversation along with Prince, Adam Jones, Justin Upton, McCutch, Zobrist etc...
Take away Hamilton's best and worst season, and he still is a sub 4 WAR player, great investment. Go ahead though, I would like to see the Brewers throw their money away. His splits between Arlington Park and away is a big enough tell that Hamilton isn't a tier-one talent.
If Braun was on the Rangers and Hamilton on the Brewers, would you consider Hammy to be top-tier? I bet you would. Also, how does Braun's PED use factor in?
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Not sure how Braun's PED use factors in. Right now he is having a season just slightly under last year's.
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Not sure how Braun's PED use factors in. Right now he is having a season just slightly under last year's.
So he's still cheating? ;)
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So he's still cheating? ;)
Insert wadesworld Brewer rant saying Braun was not found guilty, complete with a Sammy Sosa reference.
Then insert back PTM comment telling wadesworld to chill out, and that nobody cares.
Insert wadesworld saying, "well clearly somebody does, because all Cubs fans do is bring this up..."
Insert TallTitan comment about blah blah blah.,
Y'all are welcome, I just saved about 10 minutes of your life.
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If Braun was on the Rangers and Hamilton on the Brewers, would you consider Hammy to be top-tier? I bet you would. Also, how does Braun's PED use factor in?
I'm not a Brewers fan, so that wouldn't really play into my opinion.
Braun's career average WAR of 5.5 is a full point and a half ahead of Hamilton proves my point.
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Insert wadesworld Brewer rant saying Braun was not found guilty, complete with a Sammy Sosa reference.
Then insert back PTM comment telling wadesworld to chill out, and that nobody cares.
Insert wadesworld saying, "well clearly somebody does, because all Cubs fans do is bring this up..."
Insert TallTitan comment about blah blah blah.,
Y'all are welcome, I just saved about 10 minutes of your life.
Well done.
(http://assets0.ordienetworks.com/images/GifGuide/clapping/oscars.gif)
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Blah Blah Blah!
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So Kerry Wood is retiring today. He's pretty much the Cubs' version of Teddy Higuera right?
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So Kerry Wood is retiring today. He's pretty much the Cubs' version of Teddy Higuera right?
Seems about right.
However, it's really rare to see a player never come close to living up to his potential but still become a beloved fan favorite - says a lot about the type of person he is and the type of injuries he dealt with.
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Seems about right.
However, it's really rare to see a player never come close to living up to his potential but still become a beloved fan favorite - says a lot about the type of person he is and the type of injuries he dealt with.
Also helps that he pitched one of the top 5 greatest games of all time at the age of 21.
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Also helps that he pitched one of the top 5 greatest games of all time at the age of 21.
He was 20, and struck out his age.
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I'm not a Brewers fan, so that wouldn't really play into my opinion.
Braun's career average WAR of 5.5 is a full point and a half ahead of Hamilton proves my point.
Where did you get that number? I see Braun at 4.5 and Hamilton at 3.9.
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Seems about right.
However, it's really rare to see a player never come close to living up to his potential but still become a beloved fan favorite - says a lot about the type of person he is and the type of injuries he dealt with.
Also says a lot about Cub fans. They fawn over Wood much like they still fawn over a team that finished 8.5 games behind the Mets 43 years ago. Kind of pathetic, no?
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Also says a lot about Cub fans. They fawn over Wood much like they still fawn over a team that finished 8.5 games behind the Mets 43 years ago. Kind of pathetic, no?
Brewers fans only fawn over World Series champions. If the Brewers would've lost the 1982 World Series, I'm sure you wouldn't see the team wear throwback uni's every Friday home game for a season.
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Brewers fans only fawn over World Series champions. If the Brewers would've lost the 1982 World Series, I'm sure you wouldn't see the team wear throwback uni's every Friday home game for a season.
You may be right about the '82 Brewers. That said, there is no team in baseball history that has as big a gap between accomplishment and adulation as the '69 Cubs.
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Also says a lot about Cub fans. They fawn over Wood much like they still fawn over a team that finished 8.5 games behind the Mets 43 years ago. Kind of pathetic, no?
Looking at it another way, Cubs fans fawn over Wood because he had several major injuries that could have been career-ending but he kept fighting and kept coming back and kept producing. He was also a key contributor on 3 playoff teams (in '07 he was hurt most of the season so I'm not counting that one). He also took significantly less money to re-sign with the Cubs each of the last 2 seasons. IMO, it's more about character than it is about his actual on-field production.
I will give you that the adulation given to the '69 Cubs is pretty bizarre.
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All good points on Kerry Wood, Stache. Good guy, as loyal to the Cubs as the fans were to him.
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Where did you get that number? I see Braun at 4.5 and Hamilton at 3.9.
Don't think I included either's first season in the majors. Math may be incorrect.
It was incorrect. Braun is 5.525 and JH is 4.55.
Still a full win better than Hamilton.
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All good points on Kerry Wood, Stache. Good guy, as loyal to the Cubs as the fans were to him.
Not to mention Wood did a heck of a lot off the field which made him very easy to like. Even when he was a Yankee he held his annual bowling fundraiser in Chicago.
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All good points on Kerry Wood, Stache. Good guy, as loyal to the Cubs as the fans were to him.
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I don't need to look at his stats, I know what his stats are. However, it is mid-May. When it comes to counting stats in baseball, talk to me in August/September and you won't be telling me about breaking Bonds' record.
He is better than Braun at his best? I imagine you are declaring JH's last two weeks his best? His last two weeks would make him the best baseball player ever then...when he is playing at his best.
Braun is tier-one elite along with Longoria, Votto, Pujols, Cabrera, AGon, Tulo, Cano, Bautista and Kemp. After those guys you can bring Hamilton into the conversation along with Prince, Adam Jones, Justin Upton, McCutch, Zobrist etc...
Take away Hamilton's best and worst season, and he still is a sub 4 WAR player, great investment. Go ahead though, I would like to see the Brewers throw their money away. His splits between Arlington Park and away is a big enough tell that Hamilton isn't a tier-one talent.
I have considered Hamilton a top player since he started with the Rangers. His WAR may be lower than Braun's, but the Rangers have a lot more talent and impact players than the Brewers do, especially on offense. Take away Braun from us, and we are back to the 60 win early 2000's Brewers. Take away Hamilton, and the Rangers are still likely a playoff team.
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I have considered Hamilton a top player since he started with the Rangers. His WAR may be lower than Braun's, but the Rangers have a lot more talent and impact players than the Brewers do, especially on offense. Take away Braun from us, and we are back to the 60 win early 2000's Brewers. Take away Hamilton, and the Rangers are still likely a playoff team.
WAR does not relate to strength of team at all.
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WAR does not relate to strength of team at all.
Whether it does or not Braun and Hamilton are close in WAR. I still think that Josh Hamilton is better than Braun. Don't care what WAR says. 2 years ago he hit .359 with 30 HR's to win the MVP, even though it was in 130 games. Doubt Braun will ever hit .350.
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Brewers get swept by the Lastros in 2 and are now losing to the worst team in baseball, Minnesota. It's getting embarassing.
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Brewers get swept by the Lastros in 2 and are now losing to the worst team in baseball, Minnesota. It's getting embarassing.
This is just not a good team, on paper or otherwise. Braun's been Braun, Corey Hart has had a nice start (but even his average is down to .250), and Lucroy is a very good hitting catcher. But outside of that, there isn't much here. Aramis is a second half guy, but something is clearly wrong with Weeks (even beyond the recent wrist dinger). Pitching is good at the top, but falls off very quickly (and Yo has some worrisome signs as well). The bullpen has the fourth worst ERA in the NL, and importantly the worst WHIP in the majors.
I definitely get the perspective that its too early to panic, but this isn't an issue of a team that just needs time to balance out some statistical anomalies - it was a team with a very small margin of error that has since lost its starting 1B and SS for the year. You can't be a threat with Brooks Conrad and Travis Ishikawa platooning at 1B combined with one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
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Whether it does or not Braun and Hamilton are close in WAR. I still think that Josh Hamilton is better than Braun. Don't care what WAR says. 2 years ago he hit .359 with 30 HR's to win the MVP, even though it was in 130 games. Doubt Braun will ever hit .350.
One win in a WAR comparison is a lot.
I'm glad you don't care what WAR says, its only the best statistical comparison in baseball. Just shows you're willing to pay for a performance that has very little chance of being repeated. Wait....are you Jim Hendry? Or Cashman?
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Whether it does or not
It does. Mute point.
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Braun and Hamilton are close in WAR.
Brain and Hamilton are not close in WAR.
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I still think that Josh Hamilton is better than Braun.
Except for all those 'stats ' that say otherwise.
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Don't care what WAR says.
Idiot.
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I will give you that the adulation given to the '69 Cubs is pretty bizarre.
I don't think the team gets as much adulation as the individual players do. The '69 Cubs had four future hall of famers, (and another at manager) and Santo, Jenkins, Williams, and Banks, understandably, still get a lot of love.
I don't think this is all that exclusive to the Cubs. Mays and McCovey never won a championship in SF but are referenced as immortals, (I'm pretty sure) Yount and Aaron and maybe Moliter all have statues at Miller Park, Carlton Fisk and Harold Baines never won anything on the south side, etc. but all still render quite a bit of adulation. There are just a lot of Cubs fans, so you hear about their former greats often.
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Idiot.
If you adjust their respective Career WAR for the amount of games played they are about the same, with Hamilton coming out a little bit ahead. Its great to say that Braun has a better WAR, but he has played more games.
Also Braun has a negative Defensive WAR, Hamilton does not.
The name calling is a nice touch though. It really helps make your point.
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Don't think I included either's first season in the majors. Math may be incorrect.
It was incorrect. Braun is 5.525 and JH is 4.55.
Still a full win better than Hamilton.
Not sure how you came to Braun's number.
He has a career WAR of 27.4. If you take out the 1.9 for his first season, his WAR is 25.5. If you divide that by his 5 years, his AVG WAR is 5.1.
Hamilton has a Career WAR of 23.4. If you remove the 2.4 from his first season, it is 21. If you divide that by 5 seasons it is 4.2. Even if you take this season, I'm not getting your math, or missing something up myself.
But like I said earlier, if you adjust for games played with their career WAR, Hamilton comes out a little ahead. Braun has played in 166 more games than Hamilton has though.
I find it silly to say that Hamilton isn't a tier one player. Especially if you are putting Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Bautista there.
And Hamilton plays a premium defensive position.
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If you adjust their respective Career WAR for the amount of games played they are about the same, with Hamilton coming out a little bit ahead. Its great to say that Braun has a better WAR, but he has played more games.
Also Braun has a negative Defensive WAR, Hamilton does not.
The name calling is a nice touch though. It really helps make your point.
Except adjusting for the games Hamilton has missed proves the point that Braun is better. Hamilton has one more year of major league service, but has played less games. Yeah, swing and a miss chuckler. Adjusting for his injuries is pointless, especially when looking for value.
Ryan Braun has been the 7th best player since 2008 and Hamilton isn't in the top 20.
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Except adjusting for the games Hamilton has missed proves the point that Braun is better. Hamilton has one more year of major league service, but has played less games. Yeah, swing and a miss chuckler. Adjusting for his injuries is pointless, especially when looking for value.
Ryan Braun has been the 7th best player since 2008 and Hamilton isn't in the top 20.
Hamilton usually has a great year (this year) and then an off year, causing his stats to even out a lot more. He hit .359 2 years ago, .298 last year, .392 so far this year. Braun does the same thing too but with a less dramatic rise/drop. If Hamilton makes those "off" years better his stats are better than Braun's. What if Hamilton didn't miss all those games and played the same amount that Braun plays every year? Who's better then? Also there's no need for the name calling.
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You can't say that Hamilton's WAR gap accounting for games missed and not isn't relevant when the whole conversation began trying to figure out how much he's worth in trade or FA. An assumption of the risk conversation like that is inherently dependent upon comparing the player he is when he plays to the probability he will be that player for any length of time. That is, I agree with PTM in relying on WAR, but very much disagree that a smart evaluation of the player means simply looking at WAR without any variables or adjustments.
Hamilton, when he's on the field consistently and has his life together is absolutely a tier 1 player. But that doesn't mean that his value is equal to that standard due to the risk. I think ya'll disagree way less than you're pretending to.
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You can't say that Hamilton's WAR gap accounting for games missed and not isn't relevant when the whole conversation began trying to figure out how much he's worth in trade or FA. An assumption of the risk conversation like that is inherently dependent upon comparing the player he is when he plays to the probability he will be that player for any length of time. That is, I agree with PTM in relying on WAR, but very much disagree that a smart evaluation of the player means simply looking at WAR without any variables or adjustments.
Hamilton, when he's on the field consistently and has his life together is absolutely a tier 1 player. But that doesn't mean that his value is equal to that standard due to the risk. I think ya'll disagree way less than you're pretending to.
Look at me, pretending to like Braun and getting in an argument over it.
I'm ashamed.
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Except adjusting for the games Hamilton has missed proves the point that Braun is better. Hamilton has one more year of major league service, but has played less games. Yeah, swing and a miss chuckler. Adjusting for his injuries is pointless, especially when looking for value.
Ryan Braun has been the 7th best player since 2008 and Hamilton isn't in the top 20.
Don't get your panties in a bunch. No need to get belligerent.
And you're the one swinging and missing. WAR represents who gives their team a better chance of winning. When they are playing, Hamilton makes more of a difference than Braun.
Their WARs show that Hamilton makes more of an impact. Basically, Hamilton is better. Braun is better at being healthy. Can you guarantee that Braun will be more healthy moving forward?
Braun has a negative defensive WAR. Meaning you could pull any old outfielder out of AAA and they would be better. That has to be accounted for.
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Don't get your panties in a bunch. No need to get belligerent.
And you're the one swinging and missing. WAR represents who gives their team a better chance of winning. When they are playing, Hamilton makes more of a difference than Braun.
Their WARs show that Hamilton makes more of an impact. Basically, Hamilton is better. Braun is better at being healthy. Can you guarantee that Braun will be more healthy moving forward?
Braun has a negative defensive WAR. Meaning you could pull any old outfielder out of AAA and they would be better. That has to be accounted for.
I've got no dog in this fight, but aren't his defensive liabilities already being accounted for in his WAR?
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Don't get your panties in a bunch. No need to get belligerent.
And you're the one swinging and missing. WAR represents who gives their team a better chance of winning. When they are playing, Hamilton makes more of a difference than Braun.
Their WARs show that Hamilton makes more of an impact. Basically, Hamilton is better. Braun is better at being healthy. Can you guarantee that Braun will be more healthy moving forward?
Braun has a negative defensive WAR. Meaning you could pull any old outfielder out of AAA and they would be better. That has to be accounted for.
This entire statement shows you have no idea what the concept behind WAR is.
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Let's all just agree that if JH wasn't on a absolute tear(in a contract year) right now, this discussion wouldn't even happen.
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Looks like I'm getting to the party a little late. Not to personally attack you MUfanatic4life but I disagree with everything you've mentioned here.
Rizzo is the least likely guy for the Cubs to trade. You have a better shot at getting Castro than Rizzo.
Bryan LaHair (bycracky) is just Micah Hoffpauir 2.0. Both are guys who spent too long in the minors and put up some solid numbers upon being called up. I think the Cubs would be more than willing to take an A level prospect for LaHair (bycracky).
Ryan Braun is a much better player than Josh Hamilton. The only way Josh Hamilton is better than Braun is defensively, and that really doesn't matter.
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Let's all just agree that if JH wasn't on a absolute tear(in a contract year) right now, this discussion wouldn't even happen.
What about the MVP year 2 years ago? Hamilton has been overall amazing since he joined the Rangers 4 years ago, and you don't see that. Don't tell me that WAR proves Braun is far better, because if Braun misses as much time as Hamilton does on a yearly basis it is much closer. The tear he is on and the fact that he is a FA next winter AND the fact that we apparently have a chance to get him and add another MVP caliber player is what has me excited.
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What about the MVP year 2 years ago? Hamilton has been overall amazing since he joined the Rangers 4 years ago, and you don't see that. Don't tell me that WAR proves Braun is far better, because if Braun misses as much time as Hamilton does on a yearly basis it is much closer. The tear he is on and the fact that he is a FA next winter AND the fact that we apparently have a chance to get him and add another MVP caliber player is what has me excited.
The problem is Braun doesn't miss the time that Hamilton does. Hamilton is injury prone (and has substance abuse problems) that have caused his career to go on pause multiple times. Braun has had minor injuries throughout his career. Grant Hill would have been better than Kobe if he had stayed healthy. Ken Griffey Jr. would've been better than Barry Bonds (steroid use or not) if he stayed healthy. Greg Oden would've been better than Andrew Bynum if he had stayed healthy. Injuries are something that you take into account when you are looking at signing someone. Nobody is going to pay Greg Oden the money that Dwight Howard is going to get because he was a big boy who could be awesome if he could JUST stay healthy.
I hope the Brewers don't get Hamilton. They need to start rebuilding through their minor league system and start making a well rounded lineup rather than being completely 1 dimensional and relying on the long ball. You can get by having 2 stars in the middle of the order and not being very balanced otherwise, but you'll never win a World Series that way. I would give anything to see the Brewers finally field a team that can actually produce runs without the long ball. How many times do the Brewers get a leadoff double and the guy is still standing on 2nd at the end of the inning? Or have the bases loaded with no outs and end up with 1 run. Most frustrating team to watch, even when they are having success.
Look at the Cardinals. Do they sign "big name" guys? Sure, but they're always older guys who are past their prime for low risk, high reward, short term deals in complimentary rolls to their actual stars. Look at Albert Pujols. A guy who could've been a career Cardinal, one of the best players in history, who they could've spent $200 million to make it all happen but instead they use all the money to solidify multiple spots and are much better because of it.
The Brewers can't afford to spend $125 million+ on 1 player past his prime, nor should they. They need to fill the multiple holes with multiple new players rather than try to fill multiple holes with 1 player. It just doesn't work, just like the easy fix rarely works (Miami Heat, Phillidolphia Eagles, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, LA Angels, etc.).
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What about the MVP year 2 years ago? Hamilton has been overall amazing since he joined the Rangers 4 years ago, and you don't see that. Don't tell me that WAR proves Braun is far better, because if Braun misses as much time as Hamilton does on a yearly basis it is much closer. The tear he is on and the fact that he is a FA next winter AND the fact that we apparently have a chance to get him and add another MVP caliber player is what has me excited.
You could use that logic to be argue anything.
For example:
If Braun hits as few homers as Juan Pierre on a yearly basis than their value is much closer.
Braun has proven the ability to stay healthy, thus he is more valuable because of the guaranteed production. You could argue that Hamilton at his peak is better than Braun at his peak (which may be what you're trying to do), but you can't use total production and notaccount for the risk that Hamilton presents from an injury perspective.
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This entire statement shows you have no idea what the concept behind WAR is.
Please enlighten me oh great one. You are wisdom incarnate.
And again where were you getting your WAR numbers and how do you know that Braun will continue to be healthy and Hamilton will not?
You are being a blind homer if you think either guys is significantly better than the other.
Yes, the dWar is included in the overall WAR, just showing there are weaknesses in Braun's game the Hamilton doesn't have.
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Please enlighten me oh great one. You are wisdom incarnate.
And again where were you getting your WAR numbers and how do you know that Braun will continue to be healthy and Hamilton will not?
You are being a blind homer if you think either guys is significantly better than the other.
Yes, the dWar is included in the overall WAR, just showing there are weaknesses in Braun's game the Hamilton doesn't have.
IIRC PTM is a cubs fan.
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IIRC PTM is a cubs fan.
Correct.
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And again where were you getting your WAR numbers and how do you know that Braun will continue to be healthy and Hamilton will not?
Fangraphs.
I don't know if Braun will continue to be healthy. What I do know is there is a much better chance that he stays healthy than Josh Hamilton staying healthy. Which is basically the real argument here.
You are being a blind homer if you think either guys is significantly better than the other.
Not a Brewers fan and have a dislike for Braun as a person. Hell of a player though. I don't think Braun is significantly better than Hamilton, however, I do think that he is 1 win better than Hamilton. I also put Hamilton is a 'tier' below Braun.
If you notice, all of my posts include statistics which I use to evaluate players. All I've seen from the Hamilton posts is that 1.) He won MVP two years ago, 2.) He's injured, a lot 3.) He's the best player ever...when he's at his best.
Yes, the dWar is included in the overall WAR, just showing there are weaknesses in Braun's game the Hamilton doesn't have.
Using the same logic you use for Hamilton's injury being a negative to his WAR, Braun's defense makes him an even better offensive player!
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According to the MLB Elo Player Ratings, Hamilton is #357 all-time and Braun is #367. In other words, it's a wash.
The Elo Rating System was actually created by a former Marquette professor so you know it has to be the most accurate rating system out there ;)
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According to the MLB Elo Player Ratings, Hamilton is #357 all-time and Braun is #367. In other words, it's a wash.
The Elo Rating System was actually created by a former Marquette professor so you know it has to be the most accurate rating system out there ;)
Was it bamamarquette? If not, hogwash.
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Fangraphs.
I don't know if Braun will continue to be healthy. What I do know is there is a much better chance that he stays healthy than Josh Hamilton staying healthy. Which is basically the real argument here.
Not a Brewers fan and have a dislike for Braun as a person. Hell of a player though. I don't think Braun is significantly better than Hamilton, however, I do think that he is 1 win better than Hamilton. I also put Hamilton is a 'tier' below Braun.
If you notice, all of my posts include statistics which I use to evaluate players. All I've seen from the Hamilton posts is that 1.) He won MVP two years ago, 2.) He's injured, a lot 3.) He's the best player ever...when he's at his best.
Using the same logic you use for Hamilton's injury being a negative to his WAR, Braun's defense makes him an even better offensive player!
OK well, Baseballreference.com gives different WAR numbers, so there is even some play in the stat there it seems, which is always nice.
I haven't said any of those things about Hamilton, I simply adjusted the WAR for games played because Hamilton has been injured. Certainly, that is a point for Braun, but if you want to compare the players while they are on the field, Hamilton comes out ahead.
Both player have the same career BA. .313.
Braun averages 36 HR and 118 RBI per 162 games played.
Hamilton averages 35 HR and 122 RBI per 162 games played.
Braun averages 125k and 54 BB per 162 games played
Hamilton averages 127K and 57 BB per 162.
Braun slugs .566
Hamilton slugs .558
Braun's OBP is .372
Hamilton's OBP is .371
So when they are playing, they are basically the same player, offensively speaking. In fact on Braun's Baseball Reference page, the most similar hitter? You guessed it Josh Hamilton.
Defensively speaking Hamilton plays a more important, more difficult position and he plays it better than Braun plays a less important less difficult position.
Both players are legitimately great. I don't see how you can say one is definitively better than the other. So you don't have a Braun bias fine, it must be something against Hamilton then. You are basing your entire argument on one stat, that obviously isn't perfect because 2 very credible sites give different numbers. Maybe you should look a little past what Billy Beane tells you.
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Correct.
Ahhhh, so you don't like Hamilton because the Cubs traded him for nothing. OK that makes sense.
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Ahhhh, so you don't like Hamilton because the Cubs traded him for nothing. OK that makes sense.
Yes. I am terribly upset that the Cubs traded Hamilton for nothing.
Except that Hendry was not going to use the Cubs Rule 5 pick. The Cubs did not have room to give Hamilton a roster spot for the entire 2007 season, nor did he deserve a roster spot on a division winning team.
At the Winter Meetings, the Reds pre-arranged a deal for the Cubs to use their Rule 5 pick on Hamilton to prevent any other teams from picking him up. Hendry made $50,000 for doing nothing. Great move.
Dumb.
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Yes. I am terribly upset that the Cubs traded Hamilton for nothing.
Except that Hendry was not going to use the Cubs Rule 5 pick. The Cubs did not have room to give Hamilton a roster spot for the entire 2007 season, nor did he deserve a roster spot on a division winning team.
At the Winter Meetings, the Reds pre-arranged a deal for the Cubs to use their Rule 5 pick on Hamilton to prevent any other teams from picking him up. Hendry made $50,000 for doing nothing. Great move.
Dumb.
If the Rays had any idea of how good Hamilton was going to become, they never would have left him off the 40-man roster after 2006.
If the Cubs had any idea of how good Hamilton was going to become, they would have selected him, kept him and not signed Soriano.
If the Reds had any idea of how good Hamilton was going to become, they never would have traded him for Edinson Volquez.
At the time, each of those moves looked like the right one.
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I don't understand the argument that Hamilton is better.
And as a Cubs fan I should be biased against Braun.
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I don't understand the argument that Hamilton is better.
And as a Cubs fan I should be biased against Braun.
I don't care what team Braun plays for. I'm biased against him because he's a cheater, which makes all of his numbers questionable, IMO.
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I (and I think most GMs) would take Braun over Hamilton to start a team as of today (not taking other guys into account). They both have interesting health questions. Braun's being performance that will be questioned by steroids today, and whether he will have the quick decline of steroid users later vs Hamilton's seemingly constant health problems and drug/alcohol dangers today, and what affect his hard living will have on his later years. In my entirely subjective opinion (but I'm guessing the opinion of most GMs) this, combined with Braun being a year and a half younger, washes out Braun. I think Braun is a much more surefire bet to give you more top production over the next 5 years than Hamilton is. Projecting much farther ahead than that with either guy gets very difficult, but I think Hamilton bears more risk age 30+ than Braun. Even if both were to precipitously decline due to the above risks, Hamilton is much more likely to simply flame out of baseball never to play again, whereas Braun will likely give some kind of return.
Lastly, I don't put too much stock in Hamilton's added value as a CF beyond the next year or two, because with his miles I don't see him sticking predominantly in center much longer than that.
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Yes. I am terribly upset that the Cubs traded Hamilton for nothing.
Except that Hendry was not going to use the Cubs Rule 5 pick. The Cubs did not have room to give Hamilton a roster spot for the entire 2007 season, nor did he deserve a roster spot on a division winning team.
At the Winter Meetings, the Reds pre-arranged a deal for the Cubs to use their Rule 5 pick on Hamilton to prevent any other teams from picking him up. Hendry made $50,000 for doing nothing. Great move.
Dumb.
Yeah, Lord knows Daryl Ward was so much more deserving, and a much better risk/reward. Good to know that you still think the 50k was better than having Hamilton. Or better than not even having him and not being another sweet trade by Hendry.
Fact is the Cubs had him and traded him for nothing. Just another Cubbie Occurrence!
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As for starting a team, of course most GMs would take Braun as he is younger. But if you needed to win a championship this year, I don't think there would be much of a difference in the percentage of GMs that would prefer Hamilton to Braun. I have to think any GM would be thrilled to have either.
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Yeah, Lord knows Daryl Ward was so much more deserving, and a much better risk/reward. Good to know that you still think the 50k was better than having Hamilton. Or better than not even having him and not being another sweet trade by Hendry.
Fact is the Cubs had him and traded him for nothing. Just another Cubbie Occurrence!
You're just baseball stupid. There's no point in continuing this debate with you.
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You're just baseball stupid. There's no point in continuing this debate with you.
No I'm not. This is just a fun way to irritate some one taking this waaay to seriously. I did notice that you didn't address the fact that their numbers are basically identical though.
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You're just baseball stupid. There's no point in continuing this debate with you.
And again, just name calling, no points or anything. Well played.
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No I'm not. This is just a fun way to irritate some one taking this waaay to seriously. I did notice that you didn't address the fact that their numbers are basically identical though.
Yes, you are baseball stupid. Your Daryle Ward comment proved it. I'm not irritated, you just have a very poor argument. I love baseball arguments. Attacking my favorite team which has no relevance further proves your baseball stupidity.
Their numbers are not 'basically identical', you had to adjust for time missed. Basically, back to WAR, Ryan Braun is a full win better.
Since 2009, Braun has been a top 10 player. Hamilton has not been a top 20 player, statistically.
Two different tiers.
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And again, just name calling, no points or anything. Well played.
There's no name calling, you're just baseball stupid. It's okay. I'm soccer stupid, football stupid, etc.
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Yes, you are baseball stupid. Your Daryle Ward comment proved it. I'm not irritated, you just have a very poor argument. Attacking my favorite team which has no relevance further proves your baseball stupidity.
Their numbers are not 'basically identical', you had to adjust for time missed. Basically, back to WAR, Ryan Braun is a full win better.
Since 2009, Braun has been a top 10 player. Hamilton has not been a top 20 player.
Two different tiers.
Yes. I fully acknowledge that Josh Hamilton has gotten hurt. I haven't denied that at all. Yes that is a big advantage for Ryan Braun. He has been healthy throughout his career.
When they are on the field, they have about the same impact on the game. That is all I am trying to say. The shots were not at your team. I figured you must have something against Hamilton. Couldn't figure out anything else.
Obviously the Daryl Ward comment was just to tweak you, because you're so smart, and I'm so dumb. The comment was in no way part of my "argument" (on a different note I wasn't making an argument, you made it one. I was just trying to make the point that when playing, both guys are about the same with their WAR.). Clearly the Daryl Ward part was separate. That's why it was in a different post than any of the Hamilton/Braun stuff.
My point isn't that Hamilton is better. It isn't that Braun is better. It is that both players are great, both players are elite. When they are on the field, they have just about an identical impact on the game.
Again I know Hamilton has had injuries. I know this has an impact on his free agent value. I never commented that he should make more or less, whatever.
All I have been saying is that I do not see how you can put Braun in better tier than Hamilton. They are what, 2 of the top 3 OFers? Both have won 1 MVP.
Did you know Eddie Collins has a better WAR than Lou Gehrig? Or that Kenny Lofton has a better WAR than Ernie Banks? Or that Carlos Beltran has a better WAR than Billy Williams, Andre Dawson and Yogi Berra?
I think it is worthwhile to look at the big picture and not rely completely on one stat.
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There's no name calling, you're just baseball stupid. It's okay. I'm soccer stupid, football stupid, etc.
You may want to add baseball to your list as well. Being able to look at one statistical category and take it as the end all be all doesn't make you baseball smart, unless maybe you invented it. Bill James? Is that you?
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Yes. I fully acknowledge that Josh Hamilton has gotten hurt. I haven't denied that at all. Yes that is a big advantage for Ryan Braun. He has been healthy throughout his career.
When they are on the field, they have about the same impact on the game. That is all I am trying to say. The shots were not at your team. I figured you must have something against Hamilton. Couldn't figure out anything else.
Obviously the Daryl Ward comment was just to tweak you, because you're so smart, and I'm so dumb. The comment was in no way part of my "argument" (on a different note I wasn't making an argument, you made it one. I was just trying to make the point that when playing, both guys are about the same with their WAR.). Clearly the Daryl Ward part was separate. That's why it was in a different post than any of the Hamilton/Braun stuff.
My point isn't that Hamilton is better. It isn't that Braun is better. It is that both players are great, both players are elite. When they are on the field, they have just about an identical impact on the game.
Again I know Hamilton has had injuries. I know this has an impact on his free agent value. I never commented that he should make more or less, whatever.
All I have been saying is that I do not see how you can put Braun in better tier than Hamilton. They are what, 2 of the top 3 OFers? Both have won 1 MVP.
Did you know Eddie Collins has a better WAR than Lou Gehrig? Or that Kenny Lofton has a better WAR than Ernie Banks? Or that Carlos Beltran has a better WAR than Billy Williams, Andre Dawson and Yogi Berra?
I think it is worthwhile to look at the big picture and not rely completely on one stat.
+1000000000000
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Now that Estrada is on the DL, the Brewers brought up Mike McClendon. I wish Peralta would be given his first opportunity in the rotation but he's pitched sub-par this season. Thornburg is once again pitching lights out this year and is right now 6-0 with a 2.98 ERA at AA. Wonder if he'll get a shot this year?
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did anyone watch the MLB draft?
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Quick example of why being completely reliant on WAR is a risky move. Right now, Darwin Barney is 5th in the NL in WAR. Clearly he is having a better season than Braun, Cargo, McCutchen, Strasburg, etc...
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Quick example of why being completely reliant on WAR is a risky move. Right now, Darwin Barney is 5th in the NL in WAR. Clearly he is having a better season than Braun, Cargo, McCutchen, Strasburg, etc...
yep he's an MVP canidate (not)
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Milwaukee Brewers 2012:
(http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/10/26/saupload_0205cramer.jpg)
SELL SELL SELL
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Milwaukee Brewers 2012:
(http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/10/26/saupload_0205cramer.jpg)
SELL SELL SELL
With some luck, they could eventually make the big move of becoming a "Don't Buy." Any AD fans out there?
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With some luck, they could eventually make the big move of becoming a "Don't Buy." Any AD fans out there?
Perhaps, with enough luck, the Brew Crew could become risky.
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Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf are FA's next year. Estrada and Narveson are arbitration eligible. Greinke could be traded for prospects at the deadline if we aren't in contention, or be released and get a compensation 1st round draft pick, but I prefer the first. A contract extension would probably cost too much. I would like to keep Marcum, and Greinke if possible. Not Wolf, he's old and washed up. Tyler Thornburg could take a spot next year as he deserves it. Peralta is likely ahead of him, but he's pitched like crap this year. Narveson, Estrada or both could be resigned. Fiers is a capable replacement but I'll bet he'd be moved to the bullpen. Would be a rotation of 1) Gallardo 2) Marcum 3) Peralta 4) Thornburg 5) Narveson/Estrada/Fiers.
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but at the point where thats your youth revolution rotation, why pay to keep marcum? invest that money elsewhere or save it moving forward. you aren't going to the playoffs with that rotation, so let someone else spend the money on marcum. at that point, i think you're better off just looking for cheap innings eaters and saving the money/using it to sign younger guys long term.
if anything, the past few outings are raising Marcum's value higher than it has been since when the brewers traded for him last year. the time to move him is nigh before he forgets how to throws strikes/his breaking pitches gain velocity again.
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but at the point where thats your youth revolution rotation, why pay to keep marcum? invest that money elsewhere or save it moving forward. you aren't going to the playoffs with that rotation, so let someone else spend the money on marcum. at that point, i think you're better off just looking for cheap innings eaters and saving the money/using it to sign younger guys long term.
if anything, the past few outings are raising Marcum's value higher than it has been since when the brewers traded for him last year. the time to move him is nigh before he forgets how to throws strikes/his breaking pitches gain velocity again.
Marcum has proved he is worth the money in my opinion. Keeping him or letting him go is a win/win. He is an asset to the team, but if he is let go the money they get is important in signing another player(s).
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Tyler Thornburg got called up to start tonight.
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Tyler Thornburg got called up to start tonight.
And got bombed. Long game to be at but the ball was jumping with the heat and humidity. Ax Man is having a rough spell. Still has the velocity but seems to have lost his movement on his fastball.
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Clearly Brewers' fans stuffed the ballot box (in an effort to prove their massive inferiority complex). ;)
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8084525/battle-ballparks-miller-park-defeats-att-park (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8084525/battle-ballparks-miller-park-defeats-att-park)
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The final write-up was the only one all week where Capel wasn't being a tool towards Milwaukee / Miller Park. Honestly, if he'd have accurately put it somewhere between 10-16 from the get-go I don't think Brewers fans would have been all up in arms and ruined his little contest. It does compare favorably in many of the criteria listed.
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Miller Park is at least middle of the pack or better in every single one of Caple's categories... probably top 5 in a two or three (price, roof, maybe seating). So how does that deserve a 24th place ranking?
I'm not saying Miller Park is #1 or even top 5. But it's closer to #1 than it is to #24. Frankly, Caple's egging on of Brewers Nation was probably intentional... there's nothing like controversy to drive traffic to your website.
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Funny how Miller Park is beating out every stadium in the polls probably just because of the loyal fans. I regulate ESPN conversation boards and fans of other teams don't know what to do.
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Funny how Miller Park is beating out every stadium in the polls probably just because of the loyal fans. I regulate ESPN conversation boards and fans of other teams don't know what to do.
Those Brewers fans look like equal idiots.
Because it is Wisconsin, where every fan is a professional beer drinker and brat eater. That equals a great party.
Nice.
Either way, I'd say Miller Park is in the upper 1/4 of ballparks. PNC and AT&T are superior though. I've heard Camden is nice.
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I live in Boston, Fenway is an armpit of a stadium. Go once for nostalgia purposes, then stay far far away.
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Miller Park is at least middle of the pack or better in every single one of Caple's categories... probably top 5 in a two or three (price, roof, maybe seating).
I disagree. I like Miller Park, but it needs to be docked significantly for at least two categories:
"1. Location: The best ballparks not only are in the heart of a city, but they also feel as if they are deep in the city's soul, with identifiable views, distinctive features and a relationship with the surroundings."
-Miller Park is essentially in the middle of a parking lot. Outsiders can drive to a Brewers game and never even see Milwaukee. The only "identifiable view" is of 94.
"3. History: Even the best facilities filled with every imaginable amenity and design touch are lacking until the memories of past games are thick. As James Earl Jones says in "Field of Dreams,'' fans "will have to brush them from their faces.''
-I know it's hard to have history when you're only 10 years old, (and a large percentage of stadiums now have been built post 1995), but MP's most "historical" moment is probably the All-Star game ending in a tie.
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Having been to 12 of the current MLB stadiums, I can honestly say that Miller Park is pretty unmemorable. In fact, swap LF chalet/slide for RF pool and it's the same stadium as non-descript Chase Field in Phoenix (ranked #23 by Caple) except it's in a worse location in the city. I don't dislike Miller Park but it feels a lot like a newer version of the old school "cookie cutter" stadiums.
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I disagree. I like Miller Park, but it needs to be docked significantly for at least two categories:
"1. Location: The best ballparks not only are in the heart of a city, but they also feel as if they are deep in the city's soul, with identifiable views, distinctive features and a relationship with the surroundings."
-Miller Park is essentially in the middle of a parking lot. Outsiders can drive to a Brewers game and never even see Milwaukee. The only "identifiable view" is of 94.
"3. History: Even the best facilities filled with every imaginable amenity and design touch are lacking until the memories of past games are thick. As James Earl Jones says in "Field of Dreams,'' fans "will have to brush them from their faces.''
-I know it's hard to have history when you're only 10 years old, (and a large percentage of stadiums now have been built post 1995), but MP's most "historical" moment is probably the All-Star game ending in a tie.
If the Menomonee Valley isn't deep in the soul of Milwaukee, then Milwaukee has no soul. Besides, the location is perfect for what makes MP truly great... tailgating.
MP is built on the ancient burial ground of County Stadium. At what other stadium can you tailgate over the exact spot where the King's 755th landed? There's a lot more history at MP than you think. It's not "genuine" history like Fenway or Wrigley, but it's still more than the post-95s as you stated.
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-Miller Park is essentially in the middle of a parking lot. Outsiders can drive to a Brewers game and never even see Milwaukee. The only "identifiable view" is of 94.
I think this would put it at the very top of the "Transportation" category though. Can't think of a ballpark that is more accessible than Miller Park. Milwaukee is also the first or second best big city for traffic flow. Getting to and from the park while at MU was less of a chore than walking to class; getting to and from the park in a lot of MLB cities is painful.
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No Livan Hernandez posts? For shame.
I like the signing. Those criticizing it have been from a "why are they buying/this won't help them contend" angle. But that's not what this trade was about. Hernandez has always been nothing if not an innings eater, and if/when the Brewers sell, all they really have to draw interest are two starters and a set up man. That's a lot of innings that someone has to pitch.
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After yesterday's debacle, I am surprised that Cody Ransom is still on the team, and I would be very close to dumping Morgan as well....but would probably keep him. Ransom has 78 ABs and struck out 40 times. What's the point?
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After yesterday's debacle, I am surprised that Cody Ransom is still on the team, and I would be very close to dumping Morgan as well....but would probably keep him. Ransom has 78 ABs and struck out 40 times. What's the point?
Text message I sent to my cousin yesterday (before he threw a single pitch):
"F***ing Manny Parra. Brewers need to cut him loose."
response:
"Text from 2008"
The Brewers have no bats this year outside of Braun (Lucroy is injured).
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After yesterday's debacle, I am surprised that Cody Ransom is still on the team, and I would be very close to dumping Morgan as well....but would probably keep him. Ransom has 78 ABs and struck out 40 times. What's the point?
I'm sick of Morgan's mistakes he did something a few days earlier that was equally foolish. That gets you benched in HS or college.
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Text message I sent to my cousin yesterday (before he threw a single pitch):
"F***ing Manny Parra. Brewers need to cut him loose."
response:
"Text from 2008"
The Brewers have no bats this year outside of Braun (Lucroy is injured).
Well Ramirez is finally coming around. And Hart has hit so-so.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/brewers-prepared-to-offer-greinke-extension.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/brewers-prepared-to-offer-greinke-extension.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)
Brewers offering Greinke $100M over 5. Very fair offer in terms of what he could get on the market, although his true market value is probably more like $120 over 6. But the AAV is right on. IMO certainly an offer both can be happy about that has a better chance of being enough with Greinke than it might be with a similar players given his potential reluctance to go to bigger markets, etc. I still don't think it gets the job done, and as a Brewers fan honestly kind of hope it doesnt, but nothing to sneeze at - especially for MKE.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/brewers-prepared-to-offer-greinke-extension.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/brewers-prepared-to-offer-greinke-extension.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)
Brewers offering Greinke $100M over 5. Very fair offer in terms of what he could get on the market, although his true market value is probably more like $120 over 6. But the AAV is right on. IMO certainly an offer both can be happy about that has a better chance of being enough with Greinke than it might be with a similar players given his potential reluctance to go to bigger markets, etc. I still don't think it gets the job done, and as a Brewers fan honestly kind of hope it doesnt, but nothing to sneeze at - especially for MKE.
I would sign Zach to this deal in a second if I was the Brewers. But all you need to know is that this is a gesture contract to keep the folks in MKE happy. Just like Prince, it is money, but it isn't close. Zach will get more than Matt Cain (6 years, $127 Million), and could be the highest paid pitcher ever.
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Heymen - as always - is taking shots in the dark.
If the Brewers are offering Greinke anything right now it's time, not money. In other words probably six or seven years at 15-18M a year (average) with a club option & heavy performance bonuses.
What is going to be the deal maker for Greinke is the opportunity/feasibility to stay in one place for the remainder of his career... both playing and off-field. There aren't many teams that can offer that as a possibility.
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I would sign Zach to this deal in a second if I was the Brewers. But all you need to know is that this is a gesture contract to keep the folks in MKE happy. Just like Prince, it is money, but it isn't close. Zach will get more than Matt Cain (6 years, $127 Million), and could be the highest paid pitcher ever.
Most likely correct, but I think there is an element of legitimacy to it...at least moreso than with Sabathia or Prince. Still very little chance, but with those two there was truly a 0% chance they would take it.
He won't get as much as Matt Cain did either -- Grienke is slightly older (not a big deal), and his ERA has been roughly a full point higher the past 3 years -- and he is certainly not going to get what Sabathia has gotten/will get from the Yankees with his original and extended contract.
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Grienke isn't looking at Matt Cain money, that's a certain.
$100m/5 years is a nice deal for Zach and the Brewers. I don't think that's something he should be turning down.
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I would sign Zach to this deal in a second if I was the Brewers. But all you need to know is that this is a gesture contract to keep the folks in MKE happy. Just like Prince, it is money, but it isn't close. Zach will get more than Matt Cain (6 years, $127 Million), and could be the highest paid pitcher ever.
If Greinke is looking for more than Cain he is nuts. Cain is just plain better, as well as a year younger. Cain is a good comparable contract to look at, but if Greinke gets more it is a mistake.
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Grienke isn't looking at Matt Cain money, that's a certain.
$100m/5 years is a nice deal for Zach and the Brewers. I don't think that's something he should be turning down.
+1. And if the Brewers actually have that on the table, then Greinke is going to be in a Brewers uniform for a long time. Honestly, I don't think anything is on the table right now... even if Greinke were willing to sign a deal, the Brewers may trade him any way if they're 10 games out two weeks from now.
Yes, Greinke has a CY... but he hasn't had a season similar to his 2009 performance over the last several years. Cain, on the other hand, is still improving and has a freshly-rolled perfecto under his belt (granted, that was accomplished after the contract). If he hits FA according to where he's trending right now, four to five years averaging around $18-21M/year is probably where he ends up signing.
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Greinke is actually a little better than Cain according to the advanced pitching metrics, although it's really close. I don't see any reason he wouldn't command similar money.
According to fangraphs (sorry for the crappy formatting):
Greinke Cain Comparison
IP FIP XFIP WAR IP FIP XFIP WAR IP FIP XFIP WAR
2004 145.00 3.97 4.36 2.20 2004 - - - - 2004 - - - -
2005 183.00 5.80 4.49 2.60 2005 46.10 4.08 4.98 0.70 2005 greinke cain greinke greinke
2006 6.10 4.26 5.04 0.00 2006 190.20 3.96 4.59 3.50 2006 cain cain cain cain
2007 122.00 3.69 3.74 2.50 2007 200.00 3.78 4.47 4.00 2007 cain greinke greinke cain
2008 202.10 3.47 3.56 4.90 2008 217.20 3.91 4.46 3.70 2008 cain greinke greinke greinke
2009 229.10 2.16 2.33 9.30 2009 217.20 3.89 4.16 3.30 2009 greinke greinke greinke greinke
2010 220.00 4.17 3.34 5.10 2010 223.10 3.65 4.00 3.70 2010 cain cain greinke greinke
2011 171.20 3.83 2.98 3.90 2011 221.20 2.91 3.78 5.20 2011 cain cain greinke cain
2012 116.00 3.57 2.56 3.50 2012 120.10 3.13 3.56 2.70 2012 cain cain greinke greinke
Wins for Cain 6 5 1 3
Wins for Greinke 2 3 7 5
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Greinke loves playing in MKE and Miller Park and said he doesnt like the idea of playing in a big market, because he has the anxiety disorder. 100 mil 5 years is plenty and at a certain point the idea of staying in a market he loves playing in out-weighs the idea of making more money but being less happy. My guess is he will heavily decide on this deal and a likely 6-7 130-140 mil deal but ultimately choose the smaller one the Brewers are offering, at least that's my thinking.
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per Morosi, Brewers have scratched Greinke from his Wed start. No reason given yet, but this can't be good.
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Drew Olsen made a good point on the radio...By pushing Greinke back they then get Gallardo-Greinke going 1-2 in the cinci series maybe trying to make a little run before they decide what happens with him at the deadline.
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Melvin said there's nothing wrong with him, just to "recharge his batteries"
Re: the Red's matchup - yeah that might be the thought. looking at the standings, I don't think I agree with the logic/would do it myself, but maybe thats whats going on. If so, I think its dumb for a couple reasons. Primarily, when the top 3 teams are all less than 5 games back in the middle of July, those teams are all pretty fungible. A win against Cin isnt really that much bigger than a win against StL at this point, especially with the talent StL has, its not like theres any real certainty that its going to be Mke v Cin for the division at the end of the year. If you're gauging whether or not you're going to get some top prospects back in trades and sell or whether you're going to make a run based on a two game swing in July, your priorities are severely severely misguided.
Plus, this is going to make teams wonder what's wrong with Greinke, no matter what the real reason might be. With Marcum essentially untradable this season as it is, you can't afford to potentially undermine your only blue chip trade prospect's value like that. To march Greinke out there in back-to-backs after he got tossed, then rest him a week later to recharge his batteries is incredibly short sighted and irresponsible.
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Drew Olsen made a good point on the radio...By pushing Greinke back they then get Gallardo-Greinke going 1-2 in the cinci series maybe trying to make a little run before they decide what happens with him at the deadline.
It's adorable that they still think they have a chance.
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It's adorable that they still think they have a chance.
Don't look now, but the Cubs are 12-4 in their last 16 games.
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It's adorable that they still think they have a chance.
Yep, the Cardinals and Rays showed last year that you always have to bow down and give up early. A 7/8 game lead is far too much to overcome with only 74 games left.
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Yep, the Cardinals and Rays showed last year that you always have to bow down and give up early. A 7/8 game lead is far too much to overcome with only 74 games left.
When the risk-reward is cutting significant time off of bottoming out your club so you can rebuild through your farm system, you don't make decisions based on a couple of teams with historical late season surges that clinched the wild card in game 162.
Plus, those teams had much better players on them than the Brewers do. Here are the box scores to the games each of those teams played on July 16 of last year:
Cards - http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716117 (http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716117)
Rays - http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716130 (http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716130)
The Cards lineup was drastically better than the Brewers of today, and the Rays had solid, deep pitching fronted by Shields, Hellickson, Price, and the promise of Matt Moore.
My biggest complaint with this whole thing though, is that if the Brewers actually think this is a team that has a great chance of winning, then go for it - but stop this "oh, maybe if we win 4 of 6 in these series we're contenders, but then maybe if we lose 2 of 3 we should sell." What the hell kind of thinking is that? You don't judge your team, and the franchise altering consequences of draft pick compensation vs deadline deals by what happens over ANY 9 game period. The front office has to be confident in its knowledge of its own team one way or the other and use that to crystal ball the second half, not what happens in a week and a half out of the gate.
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My biggest complaint with this whole thing though, is that if the Brewers actually think this is a team that has a great chance of winning, then go for it - but stop this "oh, maybe if we win 4 of 6 in these series we're contenders, but then maybe if we lose 2 of 3 we should sell." What the hell kind of thinking is that? You don't judge your team, and the franchise altering consequences of draft pick compensation vs deadline deals by what happens over ANY 9 game period. The front office has to be confident in its knowledge of its own team one way or the other and use that to crystal ball the second half, not what happens in a week and a half out of the gate.
Your logic implies a static "level of performance/talent."
Think of the MU/WVU game last year, where three of MU's key players sat out the first half, and let's assume that having Cadougan, DJO & Blue in the lineup for just the second half is enough to outscore WVU by 12 points in that half -- which is great because they were only down 11 at half time. But if MU fell into a 15- or 20-point hole by halftime, do you think MU would still have won the game? Probably not. So what a shorthanded MU team did in the first 20 minutes to "hold serve" dictated whether or not their "A-team" had a chance to win the game in the next 20 minutes.
Or think of a 4x100 relay race... even if you've got the three fastest people in the world running your 1st, 3rd and anchor, you can't hand the second leg to anyone... he/she has to at least be "good enough" to keep your 3rd and anchor within striking distance.
Right now, the Brewers are trying to stay within striking distance - just like MU did in the 1st half vs. WVU - knowing that in about two weeks the Brewers are a different (i.e. better) team when Marcum and Lucroy return from the DL. If the Brewers are 6 games out on July 31, it's not out of the question that a "healthy" Brewers team can overcome that deficit. But if they're 13 games out on July 31, then it's virtually impossible - even for a healthy team - to overcome that kind of deficit in less than 60 games.
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When the risk-reward is cutting significant time off of bottoming out your club so you can rebuild through your farm system, you don't make decisions based on a couple of teams with historical late season surges that clinched the wild card in game 162.
Plus, those teams had much better players on them than the Brewers do. Here are the box scores to the games each of those teams played on July 16 of last year:
Cards - http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716117 (http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716117)
Rays - http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716130 (http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310716130)
The Cards lineup was drastically better than the Brewers of today, and the Rays had solid, deep pitching fronted by Shields, Hellickson, Price, and the promise of Matt Moore.
My biggest complaint with this whole thing though, is that if the Brewers actually think this is a team that has a great chance of winning, then go for it - but stop this "oh, maybe if we win 4 of 6 in these series we're contenders, but then maybe if we lose 2 of 3 we should sell." What the hell kind of thinking is that? You don't judge your team, and the franchise altering consequences of draft pick compensation vs deadline deals by what happens over ANY 9 game period. The front office has to be confident in its knowledge of its own team one way or the other and use that to crystal ball the second half, not what happens in a week and a half out of the gate.
Beat me to it Burrow, well said.
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I think those are great points, most of which I've never thought of. It also reveals that my main problem with the strategy is that I just don't think the team overcomes any deficit even with the return of Marcum and Lucroy.
In July, Brewers catchers have hit well over .300 and hit about .265-.270 in June, to go with 5 HRs. Before Lucroy got hurt, he was admittedly on fire at .345 with the same 5 HRs that Maldonado has hit in fewer ABs. I'm not arguing that these stats aside, Lucroy isn't better than the Maldonado-Kottaras combo. But I don't think that upon return Lucroy hits much better than what his replacements have so far, so I don't see a much "better team" there.
Its possible that Lucroy calls a better game than the other two, and I don't know how to look up whether or not that's true. But I have a strong suspicion that any defensive difference between Lucroy and the others behind the plate is negligible.
Marcum is kind of a wild card, and would probably be a boost - his replacements have been a bit of a mixed bag. Fiers has been great thus far but will cool down, Estrada has been up and down but can't go deep into games, and the early returns on Thornburg don't really hint that he'll be a major contributor to a competing team this season unless its possibly out of the bullpen. But the long delays in Marcum's rehab don't have me hopeful that even upon his return he'll be back for good. Even if he is, he won't be back until at least August, which is an absolute max of about 8-9 starts. Its not like you're getting a shutdown SP for those 9 starts either, in fact if he goes something like 9 GS, 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA, its a great outcome. I don't think the difference between that and replacement gives the brewers more than a couple extra wins, and that's giving the benefit of the doubt at every step along the way.
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I don't disagree that it's not a given that the Brewers can overcome any deficit with Marcum and Lucroy, but if the Brewers take the series vs StL and sweep Cincy this weekend, they could very well be 4 games out one week from today. Conversely, they could also be 12 out if they falter. If I'm DM and I'm 4 games out on July 23, I'm buying... If I'm 10 out I'm selling. If I'm 6-8 out, then the next 8 games will decide what I do and we start the conversation all over again. ;D
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I don't disagree that it's not a given that the Brewers can overcome any deficit with Marcum and Lucroy, but if the Brewers take the series vs StL and sweep Cincy this weekend, they could very well be 4 games out one week from today. Conversely, they could also be 12 out if they falter. If I'm DM and I'm 4 games out on July 23, I'm buying... If I'm 10 out I'm selling. If I'm 6-8 out, then the next 8 games will decide what I do and we start the conversation all over again. ;D
This is right. The Brewers are also team that will always have the added complication to any deal(s) or non-deal(s) of needing to get fans through the turnstiles. They really cannot afford to write of seasons or portions of seasons if they can help it, as some larger market teams can. Obviously, if they are 15 out at the deadline, your sucking wind and you have no choice but to salvage what you can via trade, but if they are middle of the road, MA and DM are for the most part try to compete.
Melvin is not stupid enough to make a decision based on some surprise 9 game hot streak. He knows what he has, just as he knows what the remaining schedule is, etc. They have a decent lineup, including a guy that could be the MVP again, formidable rotation (if healthy), and a bullpen that last year was a strength, and cannot possibly perform worse than it has thus far (I hope not anyway). If a team matching that description is sitting 4-5 back at the deadline, however you got there' will at worst stand pat, and at best try to add a piece or two. Or, maybe even a little of both, like trading a K-rod for a player that could potentially help in another area right away, as an example.
Every win counts the same no matter when they happen. Particularly with the expanded playoffs, if you think you have a chance to play meaningful games in September, if you're the Milwaukee Brewers, you have little choice but to go for it (Ina responsible way of course).
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This is right. The Brewers are also team that will always have the added complication to any deal(s) or non-deal(s) of needing to get fans through the turnstiles. They really cannot afford to write of seasons or portions of seasons if they can help it, as some larger market teams can.
Well, what you are talking about is the marginal difference between what they would sell if they held course versus what they would sell if they sold off. I would argue that is a pretty small amount. If the Brewers continue on their current course, the typical fan is about as likely to walk up and purchase a ticket as they would if they sold off.
Furthermore, if a deal makes them more competitive down the line, they will recoup any lost sales.
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Anyone catch this "slide" by Fat Boy yesterday?
I feel for the second baseman there:
(http://nbchardballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/fielder-running.gif)
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Anyone catch this "slide" by Fat Boy yesterday?
I feel for the second baseman there:
Aren't you clever? Did you think of that nickname all by yourself or did your kid help you out with that?
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If they win this next week then instead of trading away Greinke trade for some bullpen help and hope to make a run like the Cardinals made last year.
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If they win this next week then instead of trading away Greinke trade for some bullpen help and hope to make a run like the Cardinals made last year.
Thats been their plan for the past month. Poo or get off the pot already.
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If they win this next week then instead of trading away Greinke trade for some bullpen help and hope to make a run like the Cardinals made last year.
Heck no. No matter what they do next week trade Greinke, Marcum, and KRod. The Brewers, even if they had a better bullpen, are nowhere near what the Cardinals were last year. And with just 1 game for the 2 Wild Cards, the Brewers would play 1 game and be bounced (assuming they miraculously made the playoffs, which they wouldn't). Teams that rely on the long ball to score (the definition of the Brewers offense since as long as I can remember) can make it to the Playoffs if they have multiple guys who can go yard on any given at bat (Braun, Fielder, Hart, Weeks before his injury last year) and have the right roll players who can get on base in front of them (Morgan last year, Hairston). The Brewers have nobody that gets on in front of them consistently (Aoki is OK, but he's at .287 while Morgan and Hairston were at over .300 last year for much of the year). This year we have Braun and Hart who can hit a home run on any given at bat (but even Hart's a stretch). Even teams like the Brewers last year, who are stacked wirh power, get bounced unless they can also manufacture runs. Compare the lineups and rotations of the Cardinals and the Brewers and the Cards make the Brewers look like a little league team:
1) Furcal vs. Aoki - Furcal and it's not even close
2) Schumaker vs. Morgan/Gomez - Schumaker and it's not even close (this year's production from Morgan is horrible)
3) Pujols vs. Braun - Push
4) Berkman vs. Ramirez - Berkman by a decent margin
5) Holliday vs. Hart - Holliday by a slight margin
6) Freese vs. Weeks - Freese and it isn't even close
7) Molina vs. Maldonado/Lucroy - Molina by a decent margin (and I hate him and love Lucroy, but Molina is the best all around catcher in baseball)
8) Theriot/Punto vs. Ransom - Theriot/Punto and it's not even close
The Cardinals also had John Jay, Daniel Descalso, and Allan Craig coming off their bench, which is much better than the Brewers Travis Ishikawa, Cezar Isturas, and George Kottaras. Their lineup is MUCH more well rounded and they had a much better approach at the plate. There were no black holes and no easy outs in their lineup (like there is with our 2, 6, and 8 holes - obviously 9 will be on any NL team). They didn't just get hot, they played the way they were capable of playing and put it all together at the right time. That team was stacked and built to win in the Playoffs. This year's Brewers are nowhere near that, even with bullpen help.
Pitching Rotation:
1) Carpenter vs. Greinke - Carpenter but only by a small margin
2) Garcia vs. Gallardo - Gallardo by a small margin
3) Lohse vs. Marcum - Push in my opinion
4) Jackson vs. Wolf - Jackson by a decent margin
5) I don't even remember who the Cardinals #5 starter was without Wainright last year, but my guess is they were more consistent than Fiers/Estrada (not needed for the Playoffs, but definitely needed to get there)
Bullpen:
Salas, Lynn, Dotel, Rzepcyznski, Motte, Westbrook. Every one of those pitchers is better than any bullpen pitchers for the Brewers, including KRod. We'd have to trade for an entire new bullpen.
The Cardinals were just a very good team who put it all together. The Brewers are just not a very good team, and even if they put it all together from now until October, they will be watching the Playoffs at home. Try to get Greinke to resign before the deadline, and if he doesn't trade him. Trade Marcum and KRod for sure. Weeks if anyone is that desperate that they think he can miraculously figure it out would be awesome to get something for as well.
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This is about the time that the Brewers went on their big run last year....but they were still about 5 games above .500 when they started that run. And the Brewers have enough of a starting rotation that they can beat anyone in the playoffs if they get hot enough. I just don't think they are going to get hot.
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This is about the time that the Brewers went on their big run last year....but they were still about 5 games above .500 when they started that run. And the Brewers have enough of a starting rotation that they can beat anyone in the playoffs if they get hot enough. I just don't think they are going to get hot.
Offense isn't consistent enough, and we all know how awful the pen has been.
They have had terrible production from the 2 hole, as opposed to last year when Morgan was over .300. Unless he/Gomez and Rickie get really hot, I just don't see it.
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Aren't you clever? Did you think of that nickname all by yourself or did your kid help you out with that?
Yes I am. Thanks for asking!
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agree with most of what's being said. even beyond trying to compare to last year's cards, just compare this year's Brewers to last year. This year is worse in every way - lineup, rotation, and bullpen - and last year's team was always fighting an uphill battle in the playoffs.
I think the Crew should look to trade Greinke and K-Rod obviously, and I guess it would be great to get something for Marcum, but he won't be pitching before the deadline, so I doubt it happens. I also think they should try to offload Aramis on the Dodgers, who have been said to be very interested. If the Brewers can get a prospect or two and get out from under that contract, that would be great. He will be affordable next year when the Brewers won't compete anyway, but that third year there is no way he will be worth the money. Finally, I don't get why the Brewers keep saying "Corey Hart is an important part of our future" unless there's some indication he'll take a hometown discount after his deal is up after next season. With multiple teams interested, he's like Aramis in that the team won't be competitive while it would otherwise make sense to have him on board. If you can get a good return on him for decent Double-A level prospects, I don't see why not. I don't think you cut bait on Weeks though, he's good value when considering his production every year up to this season, and considering he's under team control through 2015, I dont think you sell low right now given this year's anomaly.
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Anyone catch this "slide" by Fat Boy yesterday?
I feel for the second baseman there:
(http://nbchardballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/fielder-running.gif)
Saw it in person. Even cooler when you see it at the stadium with your 5 year old screaming with joy.
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Back to the Grienke topic. If that contract is out there for him does he bother to take it? A good part of the reason he wanted out of KC was that they were perennial losers with no look of improvement.
That being said, the only thing the Brewers have going for them right now is Ryan Braun. I forsee a lot of losing in the future.
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Back to the Grienke topic. If that contract is out there for him does he bother to take it? A good part of the reason he wanted out of KC was that they were perennial losers with no look of improvement.
That being said, the only thing the Brewers have going for them right now is Ryan Braun. I forsee a lot of losing in the future.
I wouldn't want my team giving $100M to a pitcher who is a headcase and openly admitted that he doesn't try as hard when his team is out of the race. His value is high right now and there are a lot of teams in the race who need starting pitching. Sell. Sell. Sell.
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Even though many on here have a strong dislike for the Cubs, you have to admit that the heel clicks when the team took the field yesterday was an incredibly cool tribute to Ron Santo.
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Back to the Grienke topic. If that contract is out there for him does he bother to take it? A good part of the reason he wanted out of KC was that they were perennial losers with no look of improvement.
That being said, the only thing the Brewers have going for them right now is Ryan Braun. I forsee a lot of losing in the future.
Agreed... 70-80 games a year is a lot of losing.
I'm not so sure I'd be willing to throw in the towel on the Brewers' ability to be competitive over the next 3-5 years... 2013-2016 is going to be a complete role reversal from 2006-2010 insomuch as the Brewers have decent pitching depth coming through their system but much less offensive depth. Narveson and Estrada have been improving every year and are as good as they come at the back end of a rotation; alternatively, either could go to the pen as long relief/in-season depth. Fiers has been phenomenal; Peralta and Rogers appear like they're starting to get it together at AAA (both are still young); Thornburg has looked pretty damn promising in the majors considering he was pitching at single-A this time last year; Gallardo's under control for a few more years; and Scarpetta and Stinson have been putting up decent numbers at AA.
The bullpen is always going to be a question... primarily, is Axford the second coming of Turnbow or Fingers? Nevertheless, if you have young, homegrown (read: cheap) arms in the rotation, you can afford to spend on some bullpen arms.
The everyday lineup is going to be anchored by Braun, Gamel and Lucroy for the foreseeable future... that's a pretty decent 3-4-5 for $20M/year. Weeks, Hart and Ramirez will be off the books in a couple years which would free up $35-40M of payroll. Logan Schaefer will be the everyday CF as soon as Gomez hits FA in 2014. But then, the problems start... basically, the Brewers have two types of position players in their farm system: "AAAA" guys who will hit .300 at AAA and .091 in the MLB (Conrad, Bianchi, Green, etc.) and serviceable hitters who are concerns defensively (Farris, Gennett, Maysonet, etc.). The one critically important cog that's missing from the Brewers' system -- an everyday SS. That's what a Greinke trade needs to yield: preferably Profar (Rangers), Machado (Orioles), Simmons (Atlanta), or even Hechavarria (Blue Jays); although three of those four are likely untouchable.
So in 2014, the Brewers opening day lineup looks something like this:
Rotation -- Some combination of Gallardo, Fiers, Narveson, Estrada, Thornburg, Peralta, Rogers
Closer -- Axford... maybe Rogers
OF: Braun (LF), Schaefer (CF), ?? (RF)
C: Lucroy
IF: Gamel (1B), Farris or Gennett (2B), SS Prospect (via Greinke trade), ?? (3B)
That's not a bad lineup... decent rotation (though lacking a true #1, barring a renaissance by Gallardo), good bats, good defense, plenty of power, but not quite a contending squad. They'd still need a RF and 3B who can get on base consistently, not to mention a solid bullpen (considering young arms/lack of veterans in the rotation). However, you've got only $40M in payroll committed to the above (leaving about $50-55M to go out and plug in the remaining pieces, add additional depth or a #1 starter) and trading Weeks and Ramirez should yield - at the very least - some bullpen help.
But at the end of the day, it doesn't matter what the Brewers do... it matters what the other four teams in the NL Central do.
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I really agree with most everything you laid out there, and I think this is the reason why the Brewers need to be willing to throw in the towel on next year, and aim to compete in 2014 or 2015. They can get a nice return of minor leaguers who are much further along in their development if they trade guys like Hart and Aramis this season, rather than hang onto them because they're under contract for one more year. If you deal Aramis to the Dodgers, for instance, you could get back a potential starting piece for 2014-15, as well as open up a ton of salary for free agency in 2014. Similarly, Hart has been drawing a lot of interest, and while his contract for next year is affordable, it doesnt do you any good if you aren't going to compete anyway. Trade him away, and use that extra year as leverage to get players further along in their development so you aren't restocking on prospects that are new draftees and/or need another 2-3 years of seasoning in the minors.
Also, new rumors have teams interested in Loe and Parra, which makes sense because bullpen help is always needed this time of year. So in addition to trading Greinke, K-Rod, Marcum (if you can get anything for him) deal those relievers. Even if you only get pieces that project to perform similarly in the majors as those two do today (ie right now project for relief/end of the rotation type guys) thats more valuable to you in two years than it is today.
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Trade Weeks for as high of a return as you can get this offseason, which is pretty much nothing, but his stock this offseason hopefully would be better than what his current stock is as teams may think he would be in for a rebound year. Give Green his chance until Gennett is ready for a callup next year. Prepare Hunter Morris or maybe Nick Ramirez as the 1B of the future, although I prefer Morris. If they don't decide to stick with Gamel next season maybe give Sean Halton a shot next year before Morris is ready. Dump Morgan and his all-aorund $hitty play and give Schafer a serious try. Keep Gomez as backup used for defensive and baserunning situations. Maybe try to get rid of Hart and keep Aoki in RF. If they trade Greinke at the deadline they should aim for a 3B or SS in return, like Olt, Profar or Machado. If Marcum proves he still has it, keep him. Dump Wolf. Not sure about what to do with ARam though.
Lineup 2 years from now could then look like
1) Profar, SS
2) Aoki, RF
3) Braun, LF
4) ARam(?), 3B
5) Lucroy, C
6) Gamel or Morris, 1B
7) Gennett, 2B, maybe in the 2 spot in the lineup
8) Schafer, CF
9) P
Rotation of
1) Gallardo
2) Thornburg
3) Marcum
4) Peralta
5) Fiers
If Estrada is around he seems better in the bullpen. Jungmann, Bradley, Nelson, Gagnon all in waiting for a spot in case of poor play or injury or maybe put a few of them in the BP. Seems like a young, inexpensive team, which may or may not be better than the current team depending on if all the young guys pay off. Would also give them more $$$ to spend in the future.
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Ryan Dumpster I mean Dempster was traded from the Cubs to ATL, top 25 prospect Jacob Turner was in a deal that sent him from DET to MIA, and Ichiro was traded from SEA to the Yankees. Trades picking up heat. Greinke could be gone any day.
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Trade Weeks for as high of a return as you can get this offseason, which is pretty much nothing, but should be better than what his current stock is and maybe give Green his chance until Gennett is ready for a callup next year. Prepare Hunter Morris or maybe Nick Ramirez as the 1B of the future, although I prefer Morris. If they don't decide to stick with Gamel next season maybe give Sean Halton a shot next year before Morris is ready. Dump Morgan and his all-aorund $hitty play and give Schafer a serious try. Keep Gomez as backup used for defensive and baserunning situations. Maybe try to get rid of Hart and keep Aoki in RF. If they trade Greinke at the deadline they should aim for a 3B or SS in return, like Olt, Profar or Machado. If Marcum proves he still has it, keep him. Dump Wolf. Not sure about what to do with ARam though.
Lineup 2 years from now could then look like
1) Profar, SS
2) Aoki, RF
3) Braun, LF
4) ARam(?), 3B
5) Lucroy, C
6) Gamel or Morris, 1B
7) Gennett, 2B, maybe in the 2 spot in the lineup
8) Schafer, CF
9) P
Rotation of
1) Gallardo
2) Thornburg
3) Marcum
4) Peralta
5) Fiers
If Estrada is around he seems better in the bullpen. Jungmann, Bradley, Nelson, Gagnon all in waiting for a spot in case of poor play or injury or maybe put a few of them in the BP. Seems like a young, inexpensive team, which may or may not be better than the current team depending on if all the young guys pay off. Would also give them more $$$ to spend in the future.
There's no way they get Profar...He's the number one prospect in baseball the Rangers won't give him up. Olt on the other hand is very possible and my hope, he could be big time.
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There's no way they get Profar...He's the number one prospect in baseball the Rangers won't give him up. Olt on the other hand is very possible and my hope, he could be big time.
Colby Lewis is out for the season. Greinke was already an upgrade over two of the Ranger's SP's. Now he's an upgrade over three. Regardless, Tejas now has a couple holes to plug in their rotation.
If the Angels make a move in the next day or two, the Rangers get desperate and Profar loses the untouchable.
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Ryan Dumpster I mean Dempster was traded from the Cubs to ATL, top 25 prospect Jacob Turner was in a deal that sent him from DET to MIA, and Ichicro was traded from SEA to the Yankees. Trades picking up heat. Greinke could be gone any day.
I am probably the only Marlins fan on this board. For you Detroit followers, you just picked up two class acts. Anibel Sanchez is a great pitcher, who was not getting run support and Infante is just one of those infielders that gets the job done no matter where he is at. Sanchez is in last year of contract, so see what happens at end of year. Great pickups for the Tigers. I guess this Jacob Turner is a stud, hopefully in the Josh Johnson mode.
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And I realize no team likely wants anything to do with Weeks so if they trade him they would likely have to pay most of his salary. Haven't heard his name in any trade rumors but I really want him gone. I like Scooter Gennett.
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I am probably the only Marlins fan on this board. For you Detroit followers, you just picked up two class acts. Anibel Sanchez is a great pitcher, who was not getting run support and Infante is just one of those infielders that gets the job done no matter where he is at. Sanchez is in last year of contract, so see what happens at end of year. Great pickups for the Tigers. I guess this Jacob Turner is a stud, hopefully in the Josh Johnson mode.
Watched Turner pitch against the White Sox yesterday. Seemed like he had good stuff, but not Josh Johnson stuff. Seemed like more of a sinkerballer than a power pitcher.
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Dempster deal to ATL not finalized yet as he isnt sure if he will approve it.
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Anyone watch the Brewers tonight? K-Rod blew 3 run lead in 9th to lose to PHI 7-6. Last straw. They need to sell.
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I am probably the only Marlins fan on this board. For you Detroit followers, you just picked up two class acts. Anibel Sanchez is a great pitcher, who was not getting run support and Infante is just one of those infielders that gets the job done no matter where he is at. Sanchez is in last year of contract, so see what happens at end of year. Great pickups for the Tigers. I guess this Jacob Turner is a stud, hopefully in the Josh Johnson mode.
robmufan is a huge Marlins fan.
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Tiger fans knew about Infante. Thanx for the tip about Sanchez. He may be this years Doug Fister. Sanchez is from the same home town as Cabrera. Brantly is a left handed hitting catcher who is making great strides defensively, hits for average but not power yet. Blocked at the big league level by Avila. Turner has been a crown jewel in the Tigers organization the last couple of years. Tiger fans live in fear that he is another Smoltz. Second base and the 5th spot in the rotation have been Detroit's two big weaknesses. This trade fixes them both. The Marlins got a couple of good young players. And don't think Flynn is just a body. Tall lefty who throws in the low 90's, just hasn't been able to master command yet.
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Tiger fans knew about Infante. Thanx for the tip about Sanchez. He may be this years Doug Fister. Sanchez is from the same home town as Cabrera. Brantly is a left handed hitting catcher who is making great strides defensively, hits for average but not power yet. Blocked at the big league level by Avila. Turner has been a crown jewel in the Tigers organization the last couple of years. Tiger fans live in fear that he is another Smoltz. Second base and the 5th spot in the rotation have been Detroit's two big weaknesses. This trade fixes them both. The Marlins got a couple of good young players. And don't think Flynn is just a body. Tall lefty who throws in the low 90's, just hasn't been able to master command yet.
Thanks. Turner is being assigned to Triple AAA for a few starts, then will get a call-up. Now wait and see if Marlins make any additional trades by next Tuesday.
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Anyone watch the Brewers tonight? K-Rod blew 3 run lead in 9th to lose to PHI 7-6. Last straw. They need to sell.
Yes, but unfortunately K-Rod was one of the pieces that was absolutely for sale. He's been terrible since they put him in the closer role. Maybe that's good though since he was very good as a set up man. Perhaps this can facilitate a move back to that role with a contender. You could see how badly he has wanted to get back to closing games, and I questioned just how agreeable he would be to moving back to a set up role. Maybe this will help.
Other than that, I fully expect to see Grienke (even though I think he should sign the Brewers extension offer), and Wolf traded by this weekend. If not for going on the DL, Marcum's list could be in that list as well. Be that as it may, 2 SPs and a closer/set up man should net pretty decent return.
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There's no way they get Profar...He's the number one prospect in baseball the Rangers won't give him up. Olt on the other hand is very possible and my hope, he could be big time.
Torrealba and Napoli are FA's at the end of this year... not sure if the Rangers have many C prospects in their system, but I think Lewis being done for the season might entice the Rangers to consider some sort of multi-player trade involving Profar, Greinke & Maldonado. That would give the Rangers the rotation help they need now and a promising, young player they can control for another 6 years. Milwaukee gets the SS they need and gives up a position player where they have good depth. Throw in a PTBNL to balance things out, and voila... Rangers are WS champs this year, and Brewers are WS champs in two years.
If Greinke really likes Milwaukee, he'll accept the trade to Texas and simply re-sign with Milwaukee after the season (with the new CBA, Milwaukee no longer would have to forfeit a draft pick to Texas to do so)... if he doesn't, the Brewers never had a chance to resign him. I said it once, I'll say it again.... if I'm Greinke and I want to be in Milwaukee, I tell Melvin I'll take his 5y/$100 offer, but I'll sign it in November 10; in the meantime, use me in a trade -- not only do I get a chance to win a ring now, I can help get the team I'm playing on for the next five years (and eventually for whom I'll be the scouting director someday) some much needed young talent which only helps me in my quest to win another ring soon.
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Torrealba and Napoli are FA's at the end of this year... not sure if the Rangers have many C prospects in their system, but I think Lewis being done for the season might entice the Rangers to consider some sort of multi-player trade involving Profar, Greinke & Maldonado. That would give the Rangers the rotation help they need now and a promising, young player they can control for another 6 years. Milwaukee gets the SS they need and gives up a position player where they have good depth. Throw in a PTBNL to balance things out, and voila... Rangers are WS champs this year, and Brewers are WS champs in two years.
If Greinke really likes Milwaukee, he'll accept the trade to Texas and simply re-sign with Milwaukee after the season (with the new CBA, Milwaukee no longer would have to forfeit a draft pick to Texas to do so)... if he doesn't, the Brewers never had a chance to resign him. I said it once, I'll say it again.... if I'm Greinke and I want to be in Milwaukee, I tell Melvin I'll take his 5y/$100 offer, but I'll sign it in November 10; in the meantime, use me in a trade -- not only do I get a chance to win a ring now, I can help get the team I'm playing on for the next five years (and eventually for whom I'll be the scouting director someday) some much needed young talent which only helps me in my quest to win another ring soon.
I would do Grienke and Maldanado for Profar in heartbeat it just isn't very realistic...Teams just don't give up the best prospect in baseball for two months of a pitcher and a backup catcher. Especially ones ran as well as the Rangers, I think a more reasonable return would be an Olt or a prospect in that range and a close to Major League ready arm. Which is still a very good return, I would be ecstatic if the brewers were able to get Olt of it.
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I would do Grienke and Maldanado for Profar in heartbeat it just isn't very realistic...Teams just don't give up the best prospect in baseball for two months of a pitcher and a backup catcher. Especially ones ran as well as the Rangers, I think a more reasonable return would be an Olt or a prospect in that range and a close to Major League ready arm. Which is still a very good return, I would be ecstatic if the brewers were able to get Olt of it.
I don't know that I'd call Maldonado a "backup" catcher. He's been the everyday starter since Lucroy went down, and to be batting .278 mostly out of the 8-hole in regular work at the ML level is pretty damn good (it would be good enough for 7th place amongst qualified players)... not perennial all-star good, but MLB starter good. He's only throwing out baserunners at a 25% clip, but I'm willing to give him a pass on that (his MiLB average is closer to 45%). While Maldonado isn't yet a proven commodity at the ML level, he's certainly demonstrated enough to show he is beyond ML ready. On the other hand, "#1 prospect in MLB" could mean anything or nothing at all -- Profar (the #4 prospect in MLB, according to MLB) is, and remains, a complete unknown at the ML level.
Of the top 20 prospects in the Rangers' system, only one is a catcher - Jorge Alfaro who isn't exactly tearing it up at high-A right now. He's at least 3-4 years away from being ML-ready. The only other C on their 40-man is Luis Martinez who's a career .267 hitter in 5+ years in the minors and hit .203 in his first (and only) ML stint - 22 games - last year.
If you need a young, everyday catcher who you can control through 2019 and a proven SP who will help keep your 2012 postseason push on track, this is win-win trade. Bear in mind that the Rangers have $11M committed to Andrus at SS through 2014. You're not going to hold back Profar until 2015, you're not going to sit him on the bench in Arlington (especially when you already have a young utility guy in Gonzalez) and you're not going to dump Andrus (who's having his best season yet) after signing a 3yr contract at the beginning of this year.
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I don't know that I'd call Maldonado a "backup" catcher. He's been the everyday starter since Lucroy went down, and to be batting .278 mostly out of the 8-hole in regular work at the ML level is pretty damn good (it would be good enough for 7th place amongst qualified players)... not perennial all-star good, but MLB starter good. He's only throwing out baserunners at a 25% clip, but I'm willing to give him a pass on that (his MiLB average is closer to 45%). While Maldonado isn't yet a proven commodity at the ML level, he's certainly demonstrated enough to show he is beyond ML ready. On the other hand, "#1 prospect in MLB" could mean anything or nothing at all -- Profar (the #4 prospect in MLB, according to MLB) is, and remains, a complete unknown at the ML level.
Of the top 20 prospects in the Rangers' system, only one is a catcher - Jorge Alfaro who isn't exactly tearing it up at high-A right now. He's at least 3-4 years away from being ML-ready. The only other C on their 40-man is Luis Martinez who's a career .267 hitter in 5+ years in the minors and hit .203 in his first (and only) ML stint - 22 games - last year.
If you need a young, everyday catcher who you can control through 2019 and a proven SP who will help keep your 2012 postseason push on track, this is win-win trade. Bear in mind that the Rangers have $11M committed to Andrus at SS through 2014. You're not going to hold back Profar until 2015, you're not going to sit him on the bench in Arlington (especially when you already have a young utility guy in Gonzalez) and you're not going to dump Andrus (who's having his best season yet) after signing a 3yr contract at the beginning of this year.
You are grossly overrating Maldonado. We get you think he's cute, but him and a two month rental are not going to bring in Profar, who will also be under team control until 2019. They would need a pitcher that could be under team control for a bit longer to make that deal. Keith Law confirmed as much today.
1. Jurickson Profar, SS
Age: 19
Level: Double-A (Frisco)
Too good to trade? Profar looks as if he could step in as a major league shortstop by Opening Day and be league-average or better, with superstar upside. That combination of immediate return and potential peak could make it impossible for Texas to get sufficient return in any deal; they would have to receive more than one established big leaguer with multiple years of control remaining to come close to the potential value of the first six years of Profar's career.
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I would do Grienke and Maldanado for Profar in heartbeat it just isn't very realistic...Teams just don't give up the best prospect in baseball for two months of a pitcher and a backup catcher. Especially ones ran as well as the Rangers, I think a more reasonable return would be an Olt or a prospect in that range and a close to Major League ready arm. Which is still a very good return, I would be ecstatic if the brewers were able to get Olt of it.
The only reason Olt is being shopped is because his spot at 3rd is blocked by Beltre. If MIL aquires him he is blocked by Ramirez.
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Maldanado is a solid catcher and throwing out 25% of runners is actually pretty solid at the major league, but all of his minor league hitting stats indicate ( besides one solid year last year) that he is probably hitting a little over his head right now. He's the same age as Lucroy and could make a great tandem at catcher for the brewers but for now I'm not so sure he is more then a backup albeit a good one.
As far as Profar goes, almost every updated prospect rankings and article I've read lists him as the best prospect in baseball and if not the top player, definitely the top position player. As far as the Andrus situation there are rumblings that he would move to 2B/3B and they would shop Beltre/Kinsler, realistically they could keep all 4 and make it work. A 19 SS putting up the numbers he is putting up at the AA level are ridiculous he is a pretty safe bet to be an All-Star at a premier position for a long time. It would just not be a good move for the Rangers to trade him for Grienke even if you threw in Maldanado.
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The only reason Olt is being shopped is because his spot at 3rd is blocked by Beltre. If MIL aquires him he is blocked by Ramirez.
You could move either to 1st without a problem, otherwise there are rumblings that the Dodgers are pretty interested in Ramirez right now. I guess we'll have to see how it all works out, needless to say I don't know if I have much faith in Melvin.
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You could move either to 1st without a problem, otherwise there are rumblings that the Dodgers are pretty interested in Ramirez right now. I guess we'll have to see how it all works out, needless to say I don't know if I have much faith in Melvin.
This. I don't see Melvin and Attanasio making the deals that could really improve the club 2-3 years down the road because they're terrible of "selling" and seeing 1/3 the gate get lopped off. Unfortunately, I see this being a middling organization for a couple years until attendance goes down to where they fear it would be anyway, then maybe they're willing to sell and rebuild. With the new CBA, if you want good pieces you're going to have to give up players with more than 2 months of team control, and I just don't see the Brewers pioneering that.
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woke up to both good and bad news today.
Good - Cole Hamels is going to ink an extension with the Phillies. Makes Greinke easily the top pitcher on the market.
Bad - Dodgers traded for Hanley Ramirez. He might be at short in the short term, but will almost certainly move to third since I doubt LAD is ready to move on from Dee Gordon. So any interest they might have had in Aramis is probably gone. Then again, they didn't give up a ton for three years of Hanley (although his contract probably had something to do with it) - they gave up Eovaldi who entered the season as one of their top 10 propsects and McGough, who was probably between 20-30.
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"Doug hasn't said anything to me about them trading me," Greinke said. "I'm assuming I'll still be here. Obviously, something could happen. But I enjoy playing here and I don't really look forward to being traded from this place. It's just baseball. I won't take it personal if it happens."
I know this is something players just say, but Zach Grienke is one of the most honest players I have heard give a press conference.
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Is Aramis Ramirez contract considered a "bad" contract? Isn't he basically doing what he normally does? If they get rid of him, what are the options at third?
I don't think the Brewers are in a complete rebuild mode. Despite the likely loss of Greinke, if they build back up their bull pen, they could compete for a wild card as early as next year. I think they are pretty much where Cincinnati was last year - coming off a division championship, but too many holes and too many injuries. They fixed things and turned it around this year.
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I think trading ARam is highly unlikely, but if its possible, I gotta think the Yankees could potentially enter the picture today as well. Could certainly serve in a DH role down the line as well, given that he has a couple years left. Guy seems to be good for .285, 25 and 100 just about every year. No sign of that changing much this year at least.
Grienke is obviously the tall pole in the tent, that will likely dictate any other significant moves the Brewers make.
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I think trading ARam is highly unlikely, but if its possible, I gotta think the Yankees could potentially enter the picture today as well. Could certainly serve in a DH role down the line as well, given that he has a couple years left. Guy seems to be good for .285, 25 and 100 just about every year. No sign of that changing much this year at least.
Grienke is obviously the tall pole in the tent, that will likely dictate any other significant moves the Brewers make.
Exactly what I thought, when I saw that A-Rod is out 6-8 weeks with a broken hand. They said Eric chavez would fill in though.
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The Braves GM stated that they are done trying to get Dempster. Now that Hamels is off the market, do the Braves make a move?
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Thoughts about the past 12 hours.
Brewers' Bullpen: This is what happens when you commit too much to starting pitching that you lose focus on your bullpen. Solid bullpen arms that are reliable in late innings are cheap to acquire. I'll concede that Axford's and K-Rod's performance this year has been moderately shocking, but nothing about what we've seen from Parra, Loe and Veras should come as a surprise to anyone.
Houston: WTF? Seriously. Are you stockpiling cash? Is Jim Crane getting divorced? At least the Marlins win a world series before they go into dump mode. You're the 3rd largest metro area in the country and that's exactly the number of people on your active roster who are being paid more than a renewal salary -- three. If there's an award for getting your active payroll under $20M, congratulations. (In all honesty though, I know exactly what you're doing... and I'm glad you're going to the AL West next year).
Cole Hamels: The Phillies overpaid, but that's a luxury a team with the 2nd highest payroll in MLB has. By nearly every career statistic, Cain and Hamels are nearly identical pitchers. However, Hamels' 2012 stats are mostly in-line with his trend; Cain's stats have been improving the past few years.
Zach Greinke: It's been great knowing you Zach, but you're going to get paid; unfortunately, it's not going to be in Milwaukee. Your primary suitors this winter will be Detroit, Atlanta, St. Louis, Washington, and the "mystery team." My guess is you go to the mystery team (and if you read between the lines, you'll know exactly who I'm talking about).
Ryan Dempster: Either the guy really likes the Cubs or he's using his 10-5 rights to extort more money or a contract from someone. Probably the latter.
A-Ram Ram: I don't think he's going anywhere. He's due $10M next year, $16M in 2014. Unless the Brewers take on some of that salary (which they won't), that's a difficult trade to make or one that yields little in return. The Brewers need a 3B and a clean-up hitter... Ramirez might be expensive but he's one contract that's filling two significant needs.
K-Rod & Rickie Weeks: Will a team buy into the "change of scenery" argument? In K-Rod's case, you're going to either pay his salary and get a AA prospect or you're going to dump his salary for a PTBNL. Unfortunately, there's probably not a lot of demand out there for an oft-injured, .250 career hitting 2B having his worst hitting season yet.
Cory Hart: For someone who could be a team's missing piece at OF, 1B or DH, a $10M salary in 2013 is a relative bargain. Brewers could probably pick up the remainder of his 2012 salary and get a high-end AA or AAA prospect in return.
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Why would the Brewers trade Hart? He has another year left, and as you say, is a "relative bargain?"
They can't throw the towel in on *next* year.
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At the risk of sounding like Yogi Berra, part of being good is knowing when you are bad.
If the Brewers can sell a few pieces and get some value, they might get lucky and restock and maybe get bounce-back years out of Rickie/Ax/Lucroy in 2013-2014.
Honestly, other than gutting it, I think that's all they can do. They are caught right in the middle, and the draft doesn't work quickly enough in MLB.
Sell 3 or 4 of: greinke, k-rod, axford (if you get a good offer), Hart, weeks, etc.
The guys they do keep might have bounce back years, so if they get lucky with some of the young guys they trade for, they could be competitive in 2014.
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Why would the Brewers trade Hart? He has another year left, and as you say, is a "relative bargain?"
They can't throw the towel in on *next* year.
Gamel will go back to 1B next year. And I suppose I'm assuming Logan Schafer is ready to go in 2013; so your OF corps is set (Braun, Schaefer, Gomez/Aoki). If Cory Hart is still on the team, where do you plug him in?
Basically, I'm replacing Hart with Schafer, and in doing so, freeing up $9.5M to be spent on other needs (e.g. bullpen) where the marginal return is going to be exponentially greater than the marginal loss of Hart/Schafer.
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Gamel will go back to 1B next year. And I suppose I'm assuming Logan Schafer is ready to go in 2013; so your OF corps is set (Braun, Schaefer, Gomez/Aoki). If Cory Hart is still on the team, where do you plug him in?
Basically, I'm replacing Hart with Schafer, and in doing so, freeing up $9.5M to be spent on other needs (e.g. bullpen) where the marginal return is going to be exponentially greater than the marginal loss of Hart/Schafer.
The only issue with this is that I am not completely sold on Gamel. He hasn't put enough at bats together to lead me to believe he is the permanent answer at 1B....especially coming off a knee injury.
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The only issue with this is that I am not completely sold on Gamel. He hasn't put enough at bats together to lead me to believe he is the permanent answer at 1B....especially coming off a knee injury.
Probably not a permanent answer, but Hunter Morris at AA is. He's probably a year or two away, so Gamel holds the line for another year and if he's not the answer, you trade him or maybe try him out back at 3B when Ramirez is up.
I can't imagine the combined stats of Gamel and Schafer are going to be worse than Hart & Aoki combined.
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Is Aramis Ramirez contract considered a "bad" contract? Isn't he basically doing what he normally does? If they get rid of him, what are the options at third?
This year is fine, and even next year at $10 mil is okay. Its that third year at $16 mil that sucks. It'll be his age 36 season. My thought on dealing him is that this time next year, no one will want him at all, whereas this year a richer team like the Dodgers or Yankees might take him on and swallow that last year because of the reasonable $10 mil he's owed in between.
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Meanwhile...
http://deadspin.com/5929099/carlos-gomez-completely-rounded-the-bases-before-learning-his-home-run-sailed-foul
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This year is fine, and even next year at $10 mil is okay. Its that third year at $16 mil that sucks. It'll be his age 36 season. My thought on dealing him is that this time next year, no one will want him at all, whereas this year a richer team like the Dodgers or Yankees might take him on and swallow that last year because of the reasonable $10 mil he's owed in between.
Maybe I am just too optimistic in thinking the Brewers aren't really that far from being back in the playoffs next year.
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Maybe I am just too optimistic in thinking the Brewers aren't really that far from being back in the playoffs next year.
You might be a tad optimistic...The problem is they'll have essentially the same line-up with the exception of a healthy Lucroy all year (hopefully) but they'll have a young and quite frankly worse starting rotation. I agree though they're really not that far off...
Depending on how Melvin handles this trade deadline is huge though, if he can get something like Olt and Perez back from the Rangers or Segura, Cron, Richards back from the Angels 2-3 years from now you're back in the thick of things.
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This year is fine, and even next year at $10 mil is okay. Its that third year at $16 mil that sucks. It'll be his age 36 season. My thought on dealing him is that this time next year, no one will want him at all, whereas this year a richer team like the Dodgers or Yankees might take him on and swallow that last year because of the reasonable $10 mil he's owed in between.
Granted it's a small consolation, but 6 of the $16M he's due in 2014 is deferred.
If the Brewers have fill a hole at clean-up and 3B via free agency this winter, it's going to take two acquisitions... and chances are, you're going to spend more than $26M to sign those players.
Sure Ramirez's contract sucks, but compared to the alternative, it's a damn good deal.
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You might be a tad optimistic...The problem is they'll have essentially the same line-up with the exception of a healthy Lucroy all year (hopefully) but they'll have a young and quite frankly worse starting rotation. I agree though they're really not that far off...
Depending on how Melvin handles this trade deadline is huge though, if he can get something like Olt and Perez back from the Rangers or Segura, Cron, Richards back from the Angels 2-3 years from now you're back in the thick of things.
A main reason for optimism is that the NL isn't all that good, especially the NL Central. Even a team with relatively significant flaws could get into the playoffs and once you're in, anything can happen.
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The new rumor is a package with the Rangers might be packaged around Elvis Andrus...(http://brewernation.mlblogs.com/2012/07/26/heres-what-i-know-so-far/ (http://brewernation.mlblogs.com/2012/07/26/heres-what-i-know-so-far/))...
I have a hard time believing this one, as good as Profar is I don't think the Rangers would pin their season on a 19 year old shortstop being able to step in seamlessly on a run to the World Series.
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I would make that trade in a heartbeat. A 23 year old, All Star shortstop with 2 years remaining on his contract?
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I would make that trade in a heartbeat. A 23 year old, All Star shortstop with 2 years remaining on his contract?
Not to mention one additional year of control if you pull a J.J. Hardy on him.
(Although he is a Boras client... I'm sure there's something to prevent that from occurring.)
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ESPN reporting that Brewers GM Doug Melvin says the team will trade P Zack Greinke before Tuesday's deadline.
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I don't think the Rangers would actually make that trade because its too risky for this year. I do think though, that they would trade Andrus before they traded Profar. Which is all to say, neither is happening.
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ESPN reporting that Brewers GM Doug Melvin says the team will trade P Zack Greinke before Tuesday's deadline.
In other news, the sun will rise tomorrow.
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He will be traded by Saturday....he is scheduled to start Sunday.
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In other news, the sun will rise tomorrow.
Greinke told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Wednesday. "(General manager) Doug (Melvin) hasn't said anything to me about them trading me, so I'm assuming I'll still be here.
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Doug will tell him when the deal is done. If ZG wanted to stay here he would sign the extension.
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Greinke told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Wednesday. "(General manager) Doug (Melvin) hasn't said anything to me about them trading me, so I'm assuming I'll still be here.
I'll bet you believe every GM that gives his coach a "vote of confidence" as well, huh? They've been planning to trade him since he rejected their more than reasonable offer.
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Probably not a permanent answer, but Hunter Morris at AA is. He's probably a year or two away, so Gamel holds the line for another year and if he's not the answer, you trade him or maybe try him out back at 3B when Ramirez is up.
I can't imagine the combined stats of Gamel and Schafer are going to be worse than Hart & Aoki combined.
I'm a kool-aid drinker in regards to Morris as well as Scooter Gennett. I think those two could anchor the right side of the infield for a long time. If Segura (more likely) or Profar/Andrus (unlikely) are aquired to play SS the infield problem is fixed long-term, until they need a new 3B.
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I'm a kool-aid drinker in regards to Morris as well as Scooter Gennett. I think those two could anchor the right side of the infield for a long time. If Segura (more likely) or Profar/Andrus (unlikely) are aquired to play SS the infield problem is fixed long-term, until they need a new 3B.
If Gennett and Morris turn out to be as sweet as the Kool-Aid my father makes, then you could move Gamel to 3B post-Ramirez. With as many young arms coming through the system, hopefully a few of them will turn out promising enough that you could tolerate errors at the hot corner so long as your defense and offense are otherwise solid.
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The good thing about the minors being stocked with pitching is that it is easier to trade pitchers for position players than the other way around.
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I'll bet you believe every GM that gives his coach a "vote of confidence" as well, huh? They've been planning to trade him since he rejected their more than reasonable offer.
I am not disagreeing with you at all. What I found odd was that Melvin came out publicly and "showed his cards" about trading him. That doesn't really happen often that I remember.
It could work out good for him where a couple teams get into a bidding war or the other teams know he is going to trade him and try to lowball him. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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It's been extremely quiet on the rumor front today...trade imminent?
Both the Braves and the Angels have said they're backing off Grienke...Looks like it will be Texas
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Nope, off to Anaheim.
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Love this deal. Can't fill every need in one deal, but a top prospect to fill the top need (SS) and two pitchers with good potential is great value for a rental.
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Knew aquiring Segura was the most likely option as Texas was unwilling to part with Olt or Profar. Happy with this deal, the pitchers acquired look like solid prospects.
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I like this deal a lot as well. All 3 prospects were in the top 10 prospects of the Angels organization, Segura and Hellweg were top 5. Pena played in the Futures game (got rocked) but could develop into a pretty good bullpen arm.
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Anyone care to get back to that Josh Hamilton is better than Ryan Braun argument?
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Anyone care to get back to that Josh Hamilton is better than Ryan Braun argument?
No kidding.
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Anyone care to get back to that Josh Hamilton is better than Ryan Braun argument?
The slump has really brought down his stats, but in a slump hitting .290 is still very good. I would still sign him in a heartbeat this offseason especially since the price tag will be lower.
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Anyone care to get back to that Josh Hamilton is better than Ryan Braun argument?
Despite the prolonged slump for Hammy, their numbers are still pretty close.
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So his super, white hot streak wasn't an anomaly, but his 'prolonged slump' is?
Hot/Cold as the guy averages out. That's his MO, he'll find himself on the DL shortly I would venture to guess.
He won't command high caliber money this offseason.
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The slump has really brought down his stats, but in a slump hitting .290 is still very good. I would still sign him in a heartbeat this offseason especially since the price tag will be lower.
.282, actually. .288 if you revise to include his 3 for 4 game last night.
He still gets a big contract as long as he stays in the .280 - .300 range.
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So his super, white hot streak wasn't an anomaly, but his 'prolonged slump' is?
Hot/Cold as the guy averages out. That's his MO, he'll find himself on the DL shortly I would venture to guess.
He won't command high caliber money this offseason.
If he is inexpensive then the Brewers should pull the trigger, they could trade Hart or Weeks this offseason to help with the money. Even if he only gives you 120-130 games a year he is usually one of the most dominant players in the game when he is on, right now he is not. Without him the Rangers don't get to back-to-back WS.
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He won't command high caliber money this offseason.
JD Drew got several LARGE contracts. He was ALWAYS hurt, and never played more than 145 games (and only played over 140 a handful of times).
Hamilton will get his money. It won't be cheap.
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Hamilton is a guy the Brewers should absolutely not sign. Right now, the problem isn't the bats, its the arms. The bullpen is the worst in baseball. And the Brewers have some of the best power in all of baseball even though they lost a huge slugger from last year.
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Keep Hart at first and find a decent bat for RF that isn't going to cost huge money. (Nick Swisher?Delmon Young? Carlos Lee?) With Wolf gone and the Greinke salary off the books, sign a starter and bull pen help. Not sure to do with Marcum though.
Hamilton is the type of signing that could hamstring the Brewers for years if he breaks down....like the Mauer contract is doing for the Twins.
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Keep Hart at first and find a decent bat for RF that isn't going to cost huge money. (Nick Swisher?Delmon Young? Carlos Lee?) With Wolf gone and the Greinke salary off the books, sign a starter and bull pen help. Not sure to do with Marcum though.
Hamilton is the type of signing that could hamstring the Brewers for years if he breaks down....like the Mauer contract is doing for the Twins.
Aoki and Gamel may be the right fielders next year under this scenario.
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Aoki and Gamel may be the right fielders next year under this scenario.
Aoki doesn't have enough pop to be a corner outfielder and I still don't know what you have in Gamel.
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Aoki doesn't have enough pop to be a corner outfielder and I still don't know what you have in Gamel.
I think you could survive next year not having any pop in RF if you can fix the pen problems. Offense needs more guys hitting for average than it does power.
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I think you could survive next year not having any pop in RF if you can fix the pen problems. Offense needs more guys hitting for average than it does power.
A legitimate position no doubt. See, I would rather have Aoki in center so Morgan's ass can be booted. But that makes sense.
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A legitimate position no doubt. See, I would rather have Aoki in center so Morgan's ass can be booted. But that makes sense.
Agreed.... Morgan's "gotta go." He'll latch on with someone else, have another good season and drop off again. 10 years from now, he may be the poster child for the argument for "change of scenery."
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A legitimate position no doubt. See, I would rather have Aoki in center so Morgan's ass can be booted. But that makes sense.
I like Nyjer the Character, not Nyjer the Player. While the occasional hit (i.e. yesterday's 2 run shot) are always good and whatnot... he's just not doing well this year.
As far as Aoki goes... perhaps it's time to try out Logan Schafer in CF in a platoon with The Man (Gomez) in September?
BTW - how many trades took place today!
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I like Nyjer the Character, not Nyjer the Player. While the occasional hit (i.e. yesterday's 2 run shot) are always good and whatnot... he's just not doing well this year.
As far as Aoki goes... perhaps it's time to try out Logan Schafer in CF in a platoon with The Man (Gomez) in September?
BTW - how many trades took place today!
Too many trades to list. Alot.....
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Too many trades to list. Alot.....
Dempster to the Rangers, Victorino to the Dodgers, Pence to the Giants were the 3 biggest.
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I like Hunter Morris as a long-term solution at 1B instead of Hart or Gamel, he's been killing it at AA all year. Not sure how much it translates to the next level. Morris-1B Gennett-2B Segura-SS.
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I like Nyjer the Character, not Nyjer the Player. While the occasional hit (i.e. yesterday's 2 run shot) are always good and whatnot... he's just not doing well this year.
As far as Aoki goes... perhaps it's time to try out Logan Schafer in CF in a platoon with The Man (Gomez) in September?
BTW - how many trades took place today!
Nyjer is one of those guys that everybody (players, coaches, fans) love when he is doing well and the team is doing well.
When things aren't going so well, his schtick tends to annoy people. He's not the first player like this, he's not the last. Orlando Hudson seems to have the same thing going on.
Dennis Rodman is actually another extreme example. Fantastic with the Pistons and the Bulls, he became a distraction elsewhere.
Its actually too bad Nyjer didn't have a better year because a contending team would probably love to have his energy for the stretch run.
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Was watching the MLB Network, the Rangers were taking pregame BP and GM Jon Daniels was being interviewed. Interview was about Dempster acquisition but when Josh Hamilton walked past the camera and waved Daniels said "I would also like to break news on a Hamilton extension." Don't know the details of it yet.
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Was watching the MLB Network, the Rangers were taking pregame BP and GM Jon Daniels was being interviewed. Interview was about Dempster acquisition but when Josh Hamilton walked past the camera and waved Daniels said "I would also like to break news on a Hamilton extension." Don't know the details of it yet.
I didn't even see it and I can tell he was joking.
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I didn't even see it and I can tell he was joking.
No he wasn't.
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I thought the dodgers getting League was a nice move for their pen.
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Nyjer is one of those guys that everybody (players, coaches, fans) love when he is doing well and the team is doing well.
When things aren't going so well, his schtick tends to annoy people. He's not the first player like this, he's not the last. Orlando Hudson seems to have the same thing going on.
I'm likely in the minority here, but I like Nyjer's antics and think that he's been perhaps too... withdrawn... this year. Maybe part of Nyjer being Nyjer is that it kept him loose enough last year to be able to focus on "tickling" that ball out of the infield for base hits.
Dennis Rodman is actually another extreme example. Fantastic with the Pistons and the Bulls, he became a distraction elsewhere.
Well, he is in the Hall of Fame because of those stretches with the Pistons and the Bulls. He was only with other teams for 4 years total in his career (2 with San Antonio, 1 with the Lakers, and one with the Mavericks).
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I'm likely in the minority here, but I like Nyjer's antics and think that he's been perhaps too... withdrawn... this year. Maybe part of Nyjer being Nyjer is that it kept him loose enough last year to be able to focus on "tickling" that ball out of the infield for base hits.
Well, he is in the Hall of Fame because of those stretches with the Pistons and the Bulls. He was only with other teams for 4 years total in his career (2 with San Antonio, 1 with the Lakers, and one with the Mavericks).
I don't dislike Nyjer's antics, but when you are under .500, some of his stuff gets a little tiresome. Do you really want him standing on second doing "beast mode" after he hits a double when they are out of the pennant race? How about when they are down 7-0? That stuff only works when you are winning a lot of games.
Rodman's numbers look good in S.A., but he was a HUGE distraction. Put him on another winning team (the Bulls), and suddenly his antics don't look so bad. It's an extreme example, but on winning teams, eccentric behavior is far easier to deal with.
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I don't dislike Nyjer's antics, but when you are under .500, some of his stuff gets a little tiresome. Do you really want him standing on second doing "beast mode" after he hits a double when they are out of the pennant race? How about when they are down 7-0? That stuff only works when you are winning a lot of games.
Rodman's numbers look good in S.A., but he was a HUGE distraction. Put him on another winning team (the Bulls), and suddenly his antics don't look so bad. It's an extreme example, but on winning teams, eccentric behavior is far easier to deal with.
Rich/famous people are eccentric. The same behavior for the average guy means you're crazy.
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No he wasn't.
And yet, I don't see anything about this 15 hours later...
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Rich/famous people are eccentric. The same behavior for the average guy means you're crazy.
Correct.
I'm not breaking new ground here.
Morgan brings a lot of energy and a spark, but he's eccentric enough that it doesn't work very well on a mediocre team.
Like I said before, if he was a little better this year, I bet some teams in the pennant race would have inquired about him. He's a pretty good role player for a team in contention.
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I don't dislike Nyjer's antics, but when you are under .500, some of his stuff gets a little tiresome. Do you really want him standing on second doing "beast mode" after he hits a double when they are out of the pennant race? How about when they are down 7-0? That stuff only works when you are winning a lot of games.
Rodman's numbers look good in S.A., but he was a HUGE distraction. Put him on another winning team (the Bulls), and suddenly his antics don't look so bad. It's an extreme example, but on winning teams, eccentric behavior is far easier to deal with.
Well from the get-go Nyjer was different this year from last year with his antics. I'm just saying that perhaps there's a correlation between his antics, how loose he's playing, and how well he's playing. It's definitely time to thank him for his contributions last year and part ways.
Rodman was absolutely a distraction in SA - 100% agreed.
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Well from the get-go Nyjer was different this year from last year with his antics. I'm just saying that perhaps there's a correlation between his antics, how loose he's playing, and how well he's playing. It's definitely time to thank him for his contributions last year and part ways.
Rodman was absolutely a distraction in SA - 100% agreed.
It's a chicken or the egg problem in the scenario you've described. He can't play well unless he's being a little reckless, but he can't be that vocal when he's playing poorly because he'll drive everybody crazy and alienate his teammates.
There could be something to that.
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He won't command high caliber money this offseason.
God is that just stupid.
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So as things have evened out during Hamilton's slump,
Hamilton has more HR than Braun
Hamilton has more RBI than Braun
Braun and Hamilton have the same amount of XBH
Braun has a better OPS
Braun has more steals
Braun has a better BA.
While each guy has some statistical advantages, they are right on top of each other.
Both players are having seasons that should have them in the thick of MVP consideration.
I think I'm still saying they are both the same tier of player for sure.
Josh Hamilton is still the most similar player to Braun statistically, according to Baseball Reference.
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Was watching the MLB Network, the Rangers were taking pregame BP and GM Jon Daniels was being interviewed. Interview was about Dempster acquisition but when Josh Hamilton walked past the camera and waved Daniels said "I would also like to break news on a Hamilton extension." Don't know the details of it yet.
he said that using teal
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God is that just stupid.
You think he's getting Howard or Fielder money?
It ain't happening without team friendly opt-outs when it comes to substances and injuries.
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Are there any White Sox fans on this board?
It looks like the south side of Chicago is in for an exciting finish once again this year.
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Are there any White Sox fans on this board?
It looks like the south side of Chicago is in for an exciting finish once again this year.
Here! Love the moves Kenny has made. He got a 3B, reliever and a starter, can't ask for more than that. The extra starter should hopefully make Sale and Quintana more effective.
What makes the moves even better is that the Sox didn't really give anything up.
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You think he's getting Howard or Fielder money?
It ain't happening without team friendly opt-outs when it comes to substances and injuries.
He's a bit older, so I don't think he'll get the years, but I'd think an average salary of between 20-25 million is nearly a guarantee.
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He's a bit older, so I don't think he'll get the years, but I'd think an average salary of between 20-25 million is nearly a guarantee.
No team is putting $20 million into him, not without huge out clauses.
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No team is putting $20 million into him, not without huge out clauses.
Yes they will. He won't get a ton of years, but will command a pretty high average annual salary. I could very well see him getting 5 years, 125 million. I mean if someone is stupid enough to give Howard that deal a few years before his contract was even up, Hamilton should command that--he's a much better player. Remember, it only takes 1 GM. I think you are overrating the fear baseball management has about his substance abuse issues.
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And yet, I don't see anything about this 15 hours later...
Maybe he was joking, but he gave no indication he was. Saw on a Rangers blog that they were not sure either. ?-(
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No team is putting $20 million into him, not without huge out clauses.
Jayson Werth is getting $18M a year and his career has been statistically significant to former Brewer great Jeffery Hammonds. Hamilton will get a big money deal.
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Yes they will. He won't get a ton of years, but will command a pretty high average annual salary. I could very well see him getting 5 years, 125 million. I mean if someone is stupid enough to give Howard that deal a few years before his contract was even up, Hamilton should command that--he's a much better player. Remember, it only takes 1 GM. I think you are overrating the fear baseball management has about his substance abuse issues.
Players at the ML level are being drug- tested far more often today than they were when Hamilton was getting into trouble. So if he does start the habit again, he'll likely be tested within a few months, fail, and be suspended. And while he's suspended, there is no paycheck. In other words, a GM who really wants Josh Hamilton isn't going to put much weight into his substance abuse issues... whatever they commit to him is going to effectively be contingent upon him staying clean. The downside is that he relapses and you lose a player, but at least you're no longer obligated to pay his salary.
The biggest factors that are going to inhibit his chances of getting a long-term deal... he turns 32 next May, and power-hitting OF's aren't exactly scarce commodities.
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Hamilton is going to get a deal of about 5 yrs./$100M with a GM hoping to win a World Series in one of the first three years....knowing that 4 and 5 will probably be bad money.
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Yep.
http://deadspin.com/5931354/something-weird-is-going-on-with-josh-hamilton
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Yeah....I'm very likely wrong.
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Yeah....I'm very likely wrong.
I don't think he eclipses the $20m point, but he'll get close.
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I don't think he eclipses the $20m point, but he'll get close.
Every time PTM makes a prediction, I look at his signature line and say... "that's great, but what does Titan think?"
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I don't think he eclipses the $20m point, but he'll get close.
So you think he won't get $20 million, but he'll get close? Are you changing your prediction or just have a very narrow idea of what you think he'll get?
Sorry if that question came off di*kish, it wasn't meant to be.
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So you think he won't get $20 million, but he'll get close? Are you changing your prediction or just have a very narrow idea of what you think he'll get?
Sorry if that question came off di*kish, it wasn't meant to be.
Didn't come off that way.
Not changing, I consider $20+ to be top-caliber money, and he's not there. I think someone will roll the dice and land him for $17-19.5m, but getting him at $20 and over will make GMs uneasy.
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Every time PTM makes a prediction, I look at his signature line and say... "that's great, but what does Titan think?"
I wear a WWTT34D wristband.
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Didn't come off that way.
Not changing, I consider $20+ to be top-caliber money, and he's not there. I think someone will roll the dice and land him for $17-19.5m, but getting him at $20 and over will make GMs uneasy.
OK so just to be clear, 20 is big time top caliber money, but 19.5 isn't? Does that mean that Braun, who tops out at 19M between now and 2021, isn't a big time player; that is, if we are using 20M in salary as the judge?
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OK so just to be clear, 20 is big time top caliber money, but 19.5 isn't? Does that mean that Braun, who tops out at 19M between now and 2021, isn't a big time player; that is, if we are using 20M in salary as the judge?
Did I ever make a connection between talent and top caliber money? Nope.
Braun is one of the biggest steals in baseball.
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OK so just to be clear, 20 is big time top caliber money, but 19.5 isn't? Does that mean that Braun, who tops out at 19M between now and 2021, isn't a big time player; that is, if we are using 20M in salary as the judge?
FWIW, there is a "psychological" threshold at $20M; think about the difference between someone who hit .300 and someone who hit .299... the public views a .300 hitter in a different light than a .299 hitter, in any event, marginally more favorably than it would a .277 hitter compared to a .276 counterpart.
Further, like performance bonuses in MLB, some contracts between the players and their respective agents step-up to a larger percentage at certain thresholds, i.e. the agent's fee is 10% up to 'X' & 15% beyond 'X.' $20M certainly seems like a logical threshold that some of the premier players (and agents) would establish.
Therefore, one could make the argument that in baseball circles, $20M is considered "big time" and $19.5M is not... even if the player making $19.5M is considerably better than the $20M player.
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Here! Love the moves Kenny has made. He got a 3B, reliever and a starter, can't ask for more than that. The extra starter should hopefully make Sale and Quintana more effective.
What makes the moves even better is that the Sox didn't really give anything up.
Yes, Kenny finally pulled the trigger and made some good deals this year. I really hope Liriano bounces back with new surroundings. He looked pretty good in his first start for us.
Tough series starting tonight against the Angels.... we've gotta face Grienke, Santana, and Haren.
Don't stop now boys.
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Did I ever make a connection between talent and top caliber money? Nope.
Braun is one of the biggest steals in baseball.
No, but you seemed to imply it. Since, you seemed to use the opinion that Hamilton won't "command high caliber money" to justify your position that Braun is a better player. Or that was my impression at least. Sorry if I misunderstood.
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Yes, Kenny finally pulled the trigger and made some good deals this year. I really hope Liriano bounces back with new surroundings. He looked pretty good in his first start for us.
Tough series starting tonight against the Angels.... we've gotta face Grienke, Santana, and Haren.
Don't stop now boys.
Can't wait for this series, going to two of the games. Gotta check out the Mike Trout Experience. Hopefully the Sox pitching shows up, really shows up.
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Can't wait for this series, going to two of the games. Gotta check out the Mike Trout Experience. Hopefully the Sox pitching shows up, really shows up.
What a game you got to go to huh?
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Can't wait for this series, going to two of the games. Gotta check out the Mike Trout Experience. Hopefully the Sox pitching shows up, really shows up.
Saw Trout a couple of weeks ago in Detroit. Absolutely, positively the real deal. I told my wife and kids that we had come to see 3 future HOF'ers (Prince, Pujols, Cabrera) but may have seen a 4th. Flies around CF, hit a bomb over the bullpen in Detroit.....great stuff.
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Saw Trout a couple of weeks ago in Detroit. Absolutely, positively the real deal. I told my wife and kids that we had come to see 3 future HOF'ers (Prince, Pujols, Cabrera) but may have seen a 4th. Flies around CF, hit a bomb over the bullpen in Detroit.....great stuff.
Might win the MVP at 20 years old.
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Might win the MVP at 20 years old.
I don't think there's any might about it.
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Have you looked at Cabrera's numbers lately? Trout is a shoo-in for Rookie of the year, though.
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I don't think there's any might about it.
1/3 of the season has yet to be played; that has to at least add a "might" into any discussions about MVP.
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What a game you got to go to huh?
Yeah, 2 games, 2 extra inning games. Both great games. Wish the Sox could have pulled that one last night out. Left a bunch of runners on base, especially against Santana. Oh well, have to hope Liriano is the good version of himself today.
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Trout robbed a home run from Beckham last night, that I am confident there isn't another CF in baseball that would have made that catch. The top of the wall was about at his shoulder.
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Have you looked at Cabrera's numbers lately? Trout is a shoo-in for Rookie of the year, though.
Cabrera puts up the .325+ avg consistently with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI but constantly gets overlooked. He won't win it unless he increases those while leading the Tigers to a WS or something.
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Trout robbed a home run from Beckham last night, that I am confident there isn't another CF in baseball that would have made that catch. The top of the wall was about at his shoulder.
I saw that on sportscenter top plays and said, "Are you kidding me? He did it again." He has mad hops too he really got up on that.
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Trout robbed a home run from Beckham last night, that I am confident there isn't another CF in baseball that would have made that catch. The top of the wall was about at his shoulder.
Two great games to see! Trout almost robbed Rios of his walk-off on Friday, too. And he hit an absolute bomb in that Friday game as well.
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White Sox take 2/3 from the Halos, Detroit scores 5 in the bottom of the 10th to sweep the Indians. The AL Central should be a lot of fun for the next 7-8 weeks.
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Have you looked at Cabrera's numbers lately? Trout is a shoo-in for Rookie of the year, though.
He'll have slightly more homers than Trout when the season is over and more RBIs, but that's it. Trout will have more runs, a higher batting average, better OPS, significantly more stolen bases, and plays elite defense at a premium position. No too mention he didn't even play the first month so Cabrera had a head start. Obviously there's still two months left in the season, but given their current pace I don't see it as much of a contest.
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No too mention he didn't even play the first month so Cabrera had a head start.
Missing the first month of the season does not give a player a head start in batting average nor OPS, and missed time can actually benefit in those categories.
Trout has been absolutely incredible in the 86 games he's appeared. If he plays in the remaining 53 games on the schedule nearly 40% of his at-bats will be after today; his numbers can look significantly different by the end of the season.
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Two great games to see! Trout almost robbed Rios of his walk-off on Friday, too. And he hit an absolute bomb in that Friday game as well.
Trout's just playing at another level right now. Dude is a beast.
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Trout has amazing numbers but if the Angels finish 3rd in the AL West (like they are now) I don't think Trout gets the MVP. Just one man's opinion.
However...I don't think the Angels will finish in 3rd, I think they catch the Rangers..just a gut feeling.
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Trout: 86 games .346 19 homers 58 rbi
Cabrera: 108 games .325 27 homers 91 rbi
Trout is good, but Cabrera is best in AL right now. Cabrera is MVP, Trout is Rookie of Year so far.
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However...I don't think the Angels will finish in 3rd, I think they catch the Rangers..just a gut feeling.
Not if their bullpen pitches like they have over the past week or so.
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Trout: 86 games .346 19 homers 58 rbi
Cabrera: 108 games .325 27 homers 91 rbi
Trout is good, but Cabrera is best in AL right now. Cabrera is MVP, Trout is Rookie of Year so far.
Batting average is a fairly useless stat, on base and slugging or the combination of both (OPS) are much more relevant.
RBI is a totally meaningless stat and should never be used when discussing performance as it totally relies on luck, timing, and how good the guys in front of you are at getting on-base.
Now that I have my statistical rant out of the way--Trout is simply a better player right now. He's not only a better offensive player, he's about 5x as good of a defensive player as compared to Cabrera (not to mention baserunner as well).
If I had to vote today it would be
1. Trout
2. Cano
3. Cabrera
I'd be fine with switching 2 and 3 though.
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SS Jean Segura, the main piece in the Grienke trade, is making his debut tonight for the Brewers should be fun.
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SS Jean Segura, the main piece in the Grienke trade, is making his debut tonight for the Brewers should be fun.
Looks like he's in the starting lineup.
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However...I don't think the Angels will finish in 3rd, I think they catch the Rangers..just a gut feeling.
What will be interesting to see is if they finish 3rd in the AL West and still make the playoffs.
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Batting average is a fairly useless stat, on base and slugging or the combination of both (OPS) are much more relevant.
RBI is a totally meaningless stat and should never be used when discussing performance as it totally relies on luck, timing, and how good the guys in front of you are at getting on-base.
Now that I have my statistical rant out of the way--Trout is simply a better player right now. He's not only a better offensive player, he's about 5x as good of a defensive player as compared to Cabrera (not to mention baserunner as well).
If I had to vote today it would be
1. Trout
2. Cano
3. Cabrera
I'd be fine with switching 2 and 3 though.
While I agree with you that RBI and BA are not as meaningful as they used to be, I completely disagree that they are meaningless. OPS does not capture the complete productivity of a player..i.e. how about guys who are very productive with less than 2 outs and a runner on 3rd..I think this situation is highly overlooked in current statistical analysis
I also think that guys like Adam Dunn who are brought in to swing for the fences and rub produce are drastically underrated in your type of analysi...
Adam Dunn's response to a reporter who informed him that he has less singles than he does home runs-"They don't pay me to hit singles and get on base."
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While I agree with you that RBI and BA are not as meaningful as they used to be, I completely disagree that they are meaningless. OPS does not capture the complete productivity of a player..i.e. how about guys who are very productive with less than 2 outs and a runner on 3rd..I think this situation is highly overlooked in current statistical analysis
I also think that guys like Adam Dunn who are brought in to swing for the fences and rub produce are drastically underrated in your type of analysi...
Adam Dunn's response to a reporter who informed him that he has less singles than he does home runs-"They don't pay me to hit singles and get on base."
RBI was never meaningful, people just used it because it's what was available.
BA is not totally useless, but it only tells part of the picture. Ultimately, unless you get on base, you can't score. Having a team .280 BA (would lead the league), but taking no walks means you aren't going to score a lot of runs. BA has only slight value because all hits are more valuable than walks (singles are only slightly more valuable than walks). Just because things have been done a certain way for a long time does not mean that they were correct.
Paragraph 1--This is "overlooked" because statistics have shown that there is no meaningful difference in how a player performs in different situations over the long haul. Basically, there is no such thing as "clutch".
Paragraph 2 & 3--Why is that? BA actually drastically underates Dunn because he doesn't get a lot of non-hr hits. If I only looked at BA (.205), I would say Dunn should be sent down. However, since he gets a ton of walks (contrary to the last part of his comment--obp of .343) and hrs (slugging of .484), his ops (.827, 23rd in the AL out of 80 qualified players) actually reflects that he is a productive player that should get the vast majority of the DH at-bats for the White Sox.
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Trout: 86 games .346 19 homers 58 rbi
Cabrera: 108 games .325 27 homers 91 rbi
Trout is good, but Cabrera is best in AL right now. Cabrera is MVP, Trout is Rookie of Year so far.
There is more to the story with Trout, especially considering he is a leadoff man. That obviously restricts his RBI opportunities, as does playing in 22 less games. Trout has scored more runs, has a better OPS (he is better in OBP and SLG), and 32 more steals.
There is a lot of baseball to be played. I'm not sure these two will really separate, it may be a tough choice for AL MVP
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there is no such thing as "clutch".
Really??? Show your work please.
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There is more to the story with Trout, especially considering he is a leadoff man. That obviously restricts his RBI opportunities, as does playing in 22 less games. Trout has scored more runs, has a better OPS (he is better in OBP and SLG), and 32 more steals.
There is a lot of baseball to be played. I'm not sure these two will really separate, it may be a tough choice for AL MVP
Ever since I picked up Trout as soon as he was available on Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball, I've been undefeated. I have a good chance for a 20-win (1 week = 1 win/loss) season in large part thanks to him.
Meanwhile in MIL... what another great outing from Fiers!
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Really??? Show your work please.
I just checked the first guy that came to mind, and Albert Pujols has a BA .18 higher with RISP than with no one one, .13 higher than his career average. That is over about 7900 PA. That is a lot of flukiness if there isn't any such thing as a clutch player.
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***Three True Outcomes: The three ways a plate appearance can end without fielders coming into play: walks, home runs, and strikeouts. Baseball Prospectus coined the term in homage to Rob Deer, who excelled at producing all three outcomes. The statistical result of the three true outcomes on a player's slash line is a low batting average, as well as an unusually high on-base percentage relative to the batting average. Traditionally, players with a high percentage of their plate appearances ending in one of the three true outcomes are underrated, as general managers often overestimate the harm in striking out, and underestimate the value of a walk.***
Dunn leads a group of six players by 2 HR.
Dunn leads Ben Zobrist by 10 BB.
Dunn leads Carlos Pena by 22K
Past winners are Babe Ruth four times, Hack Wilson, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and Dale Murphy all once each.
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3TO... that's what made Russell Branyan a cult hero for the Brewers.
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Really??? Show your work please.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656 (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656)
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I just checked the first guy that came to mind, and Albert Pujols has a BA .18 higher with RISP than with no one one, .13 higher than his career average. That is over about 7900 PA. That is a lot of flukiness if there isn't any such thing as a clutch player.
Yep, in the span of nearly 8,000 plate appearances, Pujols has gotten 27 less hits than expected (compared to his career batting average) with no-one on base (-0.8% of those at-bats), 25 more with runners on base (0.9%), and 24 more with runners in scoring position (1.7%). Those are well withing an expected statistical range and prove my point. Even the best hitter of his generation has shown that he is not any more "clutch" than expected based on his career norms.
Category AB H BA # of Hits Compared to Expected Variation
Empty 3347 1063 0.318 (27) -0.8%
On Base 2800 937 0.335 25 0.9%
RISP 1429 489 0.342 24 1.7%
Career 6737 2194 0.326
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656 (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656)
You can debate the existence of "clutch" all you want; however, there is no debate over whether the antithesis exists. There are players who simply buckle under pressure... look no further than Yuniesky Betancourt.
With runners on, his batting average drops 10% once he gets 2 outs on him. Having over 1000 games logged in his career, I would venture to say 10% is statistically significant.
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656 (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656)
That article, does point out 2 guys that are clutch hitters (or meet the criteria to be clutch hitters, whatever). All it takes to disprove your theory is a single clutch hitter. By that articles admission, Tony Fernandez and Paul Molitor both disprove it. It also seems to go on the principle that guys can't be clutch because if they were they would be every season. Couldn't the same be said for Batting Avg overall, or HR, or SB, OR OBP or whatever? There is going to be variance in every stat every season.
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Yep, in the span of nearly 8,000 plate appearances, Pujols has gotten 27 less hits than expected (compared to his career batting average) with no-one on base (-0.8% of those at-bats), 25 more with runners on base (0.9%), and 24 more with runners in scoring position (1.7%). Those are well withing an expected statistical range and prove my point. Even the best hitter of his generation has shown that he is not any more "clutch" than expected based on his career norms.
Category AB H BA # of Hits Compared to Expected Variation
Empty 3347 1063 0.318 (27) -0.8%
On Base 2800 937 0.335 25 0.9%
RISP 1429 489 0.342 24 1.7%
Career 6737 2194 0.326
Ok, anyways, maybe Pujols is a bad example. Maybe he is just too good all around. As I said, I'm a White Sox fan. A guy most Sox fans remember for his clutch performances was Joe Crede. Upon checking his numbers, it isn't my memory being bad.
Crede hit .278 with RISP and .239 with no one on. He was a career .254 hitter. He had (sigh) 19 more hits than his career avg would have dictated with RISP, and 27 less with no one on. The fact is, he hit .39 points higher with RISP than with no one on. That seems kinda clutch to me.
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I'm not familiar with any of the background statistics that are involved with the debate over "clutch" players, but wouldn't it be expected that players have better stats with RISP? It would seem to me that RISP also means a greater number of pitches to hit, a greater probability that the pitcher being faced is a reliever, etc. I would think most players would have measurably better stats with RISP.
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You can debate the existence of "clutch" all you want; however, there is no debate over whether the antithesis exists. There are players who simply buckle under pressure... look no further than Yuniesky Betancourt.
With runners on, his batting average drops 10% once he gets 2 outs on him. Having over 1000 games logged in his career, I would venture to say 10% is statistically significant.
Can you let me know where you are getting your data?
By my count, he has a career .262 BA with runners on and 2 outs (189/721). His career BA is is .266. He has about 3 less hits than expected in those situations in over 700 at-bats.
If you are talking about 2 outs with RISP, he has a .249 BA (106/426). He has 7 less hits than expected in over 400 at bats. Again, not statistically significant. In fact, some of his other "clutch" situation numbers (tie game, within 1 run) are slightly better than his career averages.
At the end of the day, a career .260 hitter is going to be more or less a .260 hitter in all situations, the same holds true with a .290, or .320 hitter. They perform at or close to the same level regardless of circumstances. Can you find some small outliers if you look hard enough? Sure, probably, but you will fail to find a significant difference in the vast, vast majority of players. It's been proved statistically on numerous occasions.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=betanyu01&year=Career&t=b (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=betanyu01&year=Career&t=b)
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You can debate the existence of "clutch" all you want; however, there is no debate over whether the antithesis exists. There are players who simply buckle under pressure... look no further than Yuniesky Betancourt.
With runners on, his batting average drops 10% once he gets 2 outs on him. Having over 1000 games logged in his career, I would venture to say 10% is statistically significant.
Yiniesky didn't need runners on base to show the world he sucked.
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That article, does point out 2 guys that are clutch hitters (or meet the criteria to be clutch hitters, whatever). All it takes to disprove your theory is a single clutch hitter. By that articles admission, Tony Fernandez and Paul Molitor both disprove it. It also seems to go on the principle that guys can't be clutch because if they were they would be every season. Couldn't the same be said for Batting Avg overall, or HR, or SB, OR OBP or whatever? There is going to be variance in every stat every season.
??? All it takes is one guys to disprove a theory. How many guys played a statistically relevant amount of games in that timeframe? A thousand? More? And out of all those guys, they found exactly 2 guys that met the criteria. Yep, really disproves the whole theory?
Have you ever, ever told a lie? If so, should you always be considered a liar? My goodness, is everything so black and white?
Yes, there will be variance in every stat. That's the whole point. Eventually over time, though, people will revert to the mean.
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Yep, in the span of nearly 8,000 plate appearances, Pujols has gotten 27 less hits than expected (compared to his career batting average) with no-one on base (-0.8% of those at-bats), 25 more with runners on base (0.9%), and 24 more with runners in scoring position (1.7%). Those are well withing an expected statistical range and prove my point. Even the best hitter of his generation has shown that he is not any more "clutch" than expected based on his career norms.
Category AB H BA # of Hits Compared to Expected Variation
Empty 3347 1063 0.318 (27) -0.8%
On Base 2800 937 0.335 25 0.9%
RISP 1429 489 0.342 24 1.7%
Career 6737 2194 0.326
In a game where 24 points (BA with RISP and BA with no one on) in BA isn't statistically significant, 24 points is the difference between Robby Alomar and Omar Infante; Ryan Braun and Javy Lopez; Lou Brock and Hank Blalock; Jim Edmonds and Jay Gibbons. Just sayin.
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??? All it takes is one guys to disprove a theory. How many guys played a statistically relevant amount of games in that timeframe? A thousand? More? And out of all those guys, they found exactly 2 guys that met the criteria. Yep, really disproves the whole theory?
Have you ever, ever told a lie? If so, should you always be considered a liar? My goodness, is everything so black and white?
Yes, there will be variance in every stat. That's the whole point. Eventually over time, though, people will revert to the mean.
You said they don't exist. That means there are none. If I find Bigfoot, it disproves the theory that says he doesn't exist.
Also, according to your own source (maybe read it more carefully next time ;)) that study covered a 15 year span of baseball history. Not the entire history of the game
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Ok, anyways, maybe Pujols is a bad example. Maybe he is just too good all around. As I said, I'm a White Sox fan. A guy most Sox fans remember for his clutch performances was Joe Crede. Upon checking his numbers, it isn't my memory being bad.
Crede hit .278 with RISP and .239 with no one on. He was a career .254 hitter. He had (sigh) 19 more hits than his career avg would have dictated with RISP, and 27 less with no one on. The fact is, he hit .39 points higher with RISP than with no one on. That seems kinda clutch to me.
Yes, looking at that narrow prism, Crede would seem to be clutch. Of course, looking further you can see that a lot of this so-called "clutch" ability was based off the fact that he was pretty lucky in those circumstances (RISP) with a .274 batting average on balls in play vs. a career .255 BABIP.
Of course, looking at situations generally defined as "clutch", you can see Crede is back to his career norms.
"Clutch" situations:
2 outs, RISP - 98/371 - .264 - 4 more hits than expected
Late and Close - 130/489 - .266 - 6 more hits than expected
There are always going to be variances. A .254 hitter like Crede won't hit exactly .254 in every situation. But as a general rule, he will revert to the mean in most situations (home/away, lhp/rhp excluded as those is correlation with a lot of hitters in those scenarios). It's been proven that there are very few exceptions to this rule.
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It's not what you hit, it's when you hit.
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You said they don't exist. That means there are none. If I find Bigfoot, it disproves the theory that says he doesn't exist.
Also, according to your own source (maybe read it more carefully next time ;)) that study covered a 15 year span of baseball history. Not the entire history of the game
There are exceptions to every rule. The study came up with 2 guys out of how many. I would say those would be considered outliers, not normal.
Maybe you should be the one to read more careful. I didn't say if covered all of baseball, I said over that timeframe. I can't put it any better than that article did:
All major-league players have a demonstrated ability to perform under pressure. They've proven that by rising to the top of an enormous pyramid of players, tens of thousands of them, all trying to be one of the top 0.1% that gets to call themselves "major leaguers." Within this group of elite, who have proven themselves to be the best in the world at their jobs, there is no discernable change in their abilities when runners are on base, or when the game is tied in extra innings, or when candy and costumes and pumpkins decorate the local GigaMart. The guys who are good enough to be in the majors are all capable of succeeding and failing in these situations, and they're as likely to do one or the other in the clutch as they are at any other time. Over the course of a game, a month, a season or a career, there is virtually no evidence that any player or group of players possesses an ability to outperform his established level of ability in clutch situations, however defined.
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In a game where 24 points (BA with RISP and BA with no one on) in BA isn't statistically significant, 24 points is the difference between Robby Alomar and Omar Infante; Ryan Braun and Javy Lopez; Lou Brock and Hank Blalock; Jim Edmonds and Jay Gibbons. Just sayin.
That would be an apples and oranges comparison. You are taking the guys highest and lowest ba in certain situations (with smaller sample sizes) and comparing that difference to the difference among players over the span of their careers 10,000+ at bats. That doesn't seem to be a valid comparison.
Btw, batting average still isn't a great stat to compare players, however I think it only has some relevance here as we are only comparing players against themselves (assuming he is going to walk and slug at about the same rate).
At any rate, this has been a pretty good discussion but alas, I have to buckle down and do some work.
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That would be an apples and oranges comparison. You are taking the guys highest and lowest ba in certain situations (with smaller sample sizes) and comparing that difference to the difference among players over the span of their careers 10,000+ at bats. That doesn't seem to be a valid comparison.
Btw, batting average still isn't a great stat to compare players, however I think it only has some relevance here as we are only comparing players against themselves (assuming he is going to walk and slug at about the same rate).
At any rate, this has been a pretty good discussion but alas, I have to buckle down and do some work.
I know it wasn't apples to apples, just trying to point out that in baseball, since the numbers can be so small, differences that don't appear significant when you break it down to 25 extra hits, when you look at the big picture and see a guy hitting .24 points higher with RISP, it is a pretty big deal.
It is a good discussion, I fear we will have to agree to disagree, as you feel there exceptions that prove the rule, and I feel as though I found bigfoot and you can't unfind him.
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Melky Cabrera has been suspended 50 games for using roids. That hurts the Giants chances pretty seriously.
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Melky Cabrera has been suspended 50 games for using roids. That hurts the Giants chances pretty seriously.
Looks like he's not trying the Ryan Braun school of defense either and is accepting the punishment.
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Melky Cabrera has been suspended 50 games for using roids. That hurts the Giants chances pretty seriously.
What?! You mean a .267 hitter who averaged 8 HRs/year didn't suddenly learn how to hit for average and power in his late 20s? I'm shocked!
Hopefully Theo is on the phone with Brian Sabean right now trying to sell him on Soriano.
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Looks like he's not trying the Ryan Braun school of defense either and is accepting the punishment.
Why invoke the Braun defense when he has something even better at his disposal... the SF fans who wrote the Barry Bonds school of defense. My guess is that this will simply go down as "Melky Cabrera never tested positive for steroids" in the annals of Giants lore.
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Melky Cabrera has been suspended 50 games for using roids. That hurts the Giants chances pretty seriously.
But helps the Dodgers. :)
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Nice little game from King Felix today.
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Nice little game from King Felix today.
Unreal. Struck out 5 of the last 6. Just killer. Eventful day in baseball.
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Looks like he's not trying the Ryan Braun school of defense either and is accepting the punishment.
Or he did, and it stayed quiet. Like Braun's case should have been.
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Unreal. Struck out 5 of the last 6. Just killer. Eventful day in baseball.
The ball was dancing around the strike zone like Buzz after a WVU game.
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Looks like he's not trying the Ryan Braun school of defense either and is accepting the punishment.
"My positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used," Cabrera said in a statement released by the union. "I accept my suspension under the Joint Drug Program and I will try to move on with my life. I am deeply sorry for my mistake and I apologize to my teammates, to the San Francisco Giants organization and to the fans for letting them down."
Accepting blame! What a novel concept! He should have tried to ruin the life of the sample handler instead.
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"My positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used," Cabrera said in a statement released by the union. "I accept my suspension under the Joint Drug Program and I will try to move on with my life. I am deeply sorry for my mistake and I apologize to my teammates, to the San Francisco Giants organization and to the fans for letting them down."
Accepting blame! What a novel concept! He should have tried to ruin the life of the sample handler instead.
That's just like, your opinion, man.
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Or he did, and it stayed quiet. Like Braun's case should have been.
^ This.
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"My positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used," Cabrera said in a statement released by the union. "I accept my suspension under the Joint Drug Program and I will try to move on with my life. I am deeply sorry for my mistake and I apologize to my teammates, to the San Francisco Giants organization and to the fans for letting them down."
Accepting blame! What a novel concept! He should have tried to ruin the life of the sample handler instead.
When rules aren't followed, there is no reason to not appeal. That appeal should have never come to light (even if he did get off on a technicality).
Following the rules that have been collectively bargained, what a novel concept!! The sample handler has nobody to blame but himself.
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When rules aren't followed, there is no reason to not appeal. That appeal should have never come to light (even if he did get off on a technicality).
Following the rules that have been collectively bargained, what a novel concept!! The sample handler has nobody to blame but himself.
Except he did follow them, MLB thinks he followed them, the WADA thinks he followed them. Braun did get one arbitrator to catch his Hail Mary pass though, so good for him. Doesn't change the fact that he never disputed the positive test, only how it was handled.
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Or he did, and it stayed quiet. Like Braun's case should have been.
Actually, a beat writer had the scoop on this one back in late July (http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/28/giants-beat-writer-apologizes-to-melky-cabrera-for-ped-rumor/), but because of Melky and Melky's agent's denial of them even being contacted by MLB or the union for a positive test and the fact that the writer had even acknowledged the rumor in the first place, the writer issued an apology to Melky.
Oh, irony. Sweet, sweet irony.
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Doesn't change the fact that he never disputed the positive test, only how it was handled.
But if the easiest path to clearing oneself is via a Chain of Custody dispute, why should they even fight the test itself? Doing so would have likely led to the airing of all sorts of things that Braun would have not wanted disclosed. Why disclose more than what is absolutely necessary for one's defense?
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Except he did follow them, MLB thinks he followed them, the WADA thinks he followed them. Braun did get one arbitrator to catch his Hail Mary pass though, so good for him. Doesn't change the fact that he never disputed the positive test, only how it was handled.
A neutral arbitrator who was agreed upon by both parties (the MLB and the MLBPA). If the MLB doesn't like it, then they shouldn't have made it their own rules.
And how do you know whether Braun disputed his innocence or the use of a banned substance in his defense? Were you sitting in on the hearings? I doubt it. How do you know what the arbitrator based his decision off of? If the handler followed all of the procedures correctly and everyone involved agrees to that, then Braun was found not guilty based on...?
Even if Braun was found not guilty based solely on a technicality and didn't dispute the use of a banned substance in his hearings, he maintained his innocence from day 1. Like in any legal case, Braun could have been innocent based on a huge number of facts. The defense could have had 5 different arguments. The job of the defense team is to decide which defense is the best defense to use, the most likely to win the case. Whether Braun used a banned substance or not, the easiest defense to win the case was always going to be a chain of custody issue (which apparently there wasn't 1 and everyone knew there wasn't but he still won his case...? Must be a buddy of Braun's that the MLB agreed to use as an "independent" arbitrator, eh? ::) ) because that means the sample cannot possibly be used or found credible, legally. It was a failure to follow the MLB's own rules.
And Braun ruining someone else's life? Please. Do your job and do it correctly and nobody knows or cares who the sampler is. Why take a dude's pee sample home with you for 48 hours?
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A neutral arbitrator who was agreed upon by both parties (the MLB and the MLBPA). If the MLB doesn't like it, then they shouldn't have made it their own rules.
And how do you know whether Braun disputed his innocence or the use of a banned substance in his defense? Were you sitting in on the hearings? I doubt it. How do you know what the arbitrator based his decision off of? If the handler followed all of the procedures correctly and everyone involved agrees to that, then Braun was found not guilty based on...?
Even if Braun was found not guilty based solely on a technicality and didn't dispute the use of a banned substance in his hearings, he maintained his innocence from day 1. Like in any legal case, Braun could have been innocent based on a huge number of facts. The defense could have had 5 different arguments. The job of the defense team is to decide which defense is the best defense to use, the most likely to win the case. Whether Braun used a banned substance or not, the easiest defense to win the case was always going to be a chain of custody issue (which apparently there wasn't 1 and everyone knew there wasn't but he still won his case...? Must be a buddy of Braun's that the MLB agreed to use as an "independent" arbitrator, eh? ::) ) because that means the sample cannot possibly be used or found credible, legally. It was a failure to follow the MLB's own rules.
And Braun ruining someone else's life? Please. Do your job and do it correctly and nobody knows or cares who the sampler is. Why take a dude's pee sample home with you for 48 hours?
Barry Bonds has maintained his innocence from Day 1 too and has never tested positive, do you believe him? How about Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro?
Braun was found not guilty (note how very different that is from innocent) because of a loophole. I was merely pointing out the difference between his and Melky Cabrera's responses.
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And Braun ruining someone else's life? Please. Do your job and do it correctly and nobody knows or cares who the sampler is. Why take a dude's pee sample home with you for 48 hours?
The point I was trying to make was that Braun unnecessarily called out the handler and threw him under the bus despite the fact that experts on the matter have stated that leaving the sample out for 48 hours would not have affected the results and the sample was not tampered with. If you think about it, Braun should be thanking the handler because if he had immediately shipped the sample, Braun would have missed the first 2 months of the season.
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The point I was trying to make was that Braun unnecessarily called out the handler and threw him under the bus despite the fact that experts on the matter have stated that leaving the sample out for 48 hours would not have affected the results and the sample was not tampered with. If you think about it, Braun should be thanking the handler because if he had immediately shipped the sample, Braun would have missed the first 2 months of the season.
You know... that's an interesting twist. After all, on the surface it would appear that Braun was calling out the collector, but it was actually the collector who threw himself under the bus. All this time I thought it might be to save his job, but perhaps the collector was doing the right thing after all.
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You know... that's an interesting twist. After all, on the surface it would appear that Braun was calling out the collector, but it was actually the collector who threw himself under the bus. All this time I thought it might be to save his job, but perhaps the collector was doing the right thing after all.
Completely ridiculous and improbable conspiracy theory...
Braun knew he would test positive so his agent/lawyers, knowing full well the protocol, advised him to pay the collector six figures to keep the sample at his house over the weekend before shipping it because that was their best chance to "overturn" the positive test, especially since news of the positive test would never be made known to the public and the payoff from Braun would be more than enough to cover the loss the handler would experience from being fired from his side job if word of the bribe leaked or for mishandling the sample.
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It is known that the collector followed his company's protocol when it came to handling the sample, right? And that his company's protocol follows the guidelines set forth by the WADA, right?
The collector, his company and the WADA all followed the wrong guidelines because of a difference in wording between the WADA and MLB guidelines. The MLB will be changing their verbiage to match WADA's verbiage with the next agreement.
To sum this whole thing up, if Ryan Braun played in the NFL or the 2012 London Games he would have been guilty of doping without the loophole to get him out.
To further sum it up, Braun got off. It's over and he's still having a great season.
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It is known that the collector followed his company's protocol when it came to handling the sample, right? And that his company's protocol follows the guidelines set forth by the WADA, right?
The collector, his company and the WADA all followed the wrong guidelines because of a difference in wording between the WADA and MLB guidelines. The MLB will be changing their verbiage to match WADA's verbiage with the next agreement.
To sum this whole thing up, if Ryan Braun played in the NFL or the 2012 London Games he would have been guilty of doping without the loophole to get him out.
To further sum it up, Braun got off. It's over and he's still having a great season.
Actually... I would think that WADA should be changing their protocol and/or chain-of-custody rules. If you gave me a suitcase with a million dollars and a name, I bet I could get that person to fail a drug test so long as allowing a sample to sit unattended for 24-48 hours was allowed under the testing protocol.
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Actually... I would think that WADA should be changing their protocol and/or chain-of-custody rules. If you gave me a suitcase with a million dollars and a name, I bet I could get that person to fail a drug test so long as allowing a sample to sit unattended for 24-48 hours was allowed under the testing protocol.
Can't disagree. I also think there has to be some trust in the collectors over potentially following a collector to a FedEx store, and then breaking into said store to steal the sample.
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Shouldn't Bud award the home field advantage for the WS to the American League since the MVP of his "meaningful" game was cheating?
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Shouldn't Bud award the home field advantage for the WS to the American League since the MVP of his "meaningful" game was cheating?
Bud should be more worried about Melky taking home the batting title at this point.
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Shouldn't Bud award the home field advantage for the WS to the American League since the MVP of his "meaningful" game was cheating?
Interesting but that's a slippery slope if they decide to go down that path. If anything, they should give home-field to the team with the best record because of this...and keep it that way.
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Interesting but that's a slippery slope if they decide to go down that path. If anything, they should give home-field to the team with the best record because of this...and keep it that way.
+ infinity
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Or revert to switching it back and forth like they used to. There is no evidence that anyone takes the All Star game more seriously because of the home field advantage aspect.
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Can't disagree. I also think there has to be some trust in the collectors over potentially following a collector to a FedEx store, and then breaking into said store to steal the sample.
Would you trust a person you don't know with your reputation and a ton of money?
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Would you trust a person you don't know with your reputation and a ton of money?
It's mind-boggling to think what "average" people would do for even $10,000 these days without regard for the consequences.
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Would you trust a person you don't know with your reputation and a ton of money?
Kinda happens everyday to more than MLB players. People are trusted to do their job.
In the perfect world, Ryan Braun pees into a container than has a small camera to confirm his wiener is releasing the urine. As soon as the stream stops, the container transforms into a small rocket ship the size of a paper airplane and flys to the testing facility.
However, I believe we are still a few years away from this technology.
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Kinda happens everyday to more than MLB players. People are trusted to do their job.
In the perfect world, Ryan Braun pees into a container than has a small camera to confirm his wiener is releasing the urine. As soon as the stream stops, the container transforms into a small rocket ship the size of a paper airplane and flys to the testing facility.
However, I believe we are still a few years away from this technology.
If NASA would stop its unrequited love affair with Mars they could focus one these much more important projects.
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Kinda happens everyday to more than MLB players. People are trusted to do their job.
In the perfect world, Ryan Braun pees into a container than has a small camera to confirm his wiener is releasing the urine. As soon as the stream stops, the container transforms into a small rocket ship the size of a paper airplane and flys to the testing facility.
However, I believe we are still a few years away from this technology.
The technology is the easy part... the hard part is getting it to make that cool "transformer" sound, chee-goo-goo-gunk-go-gunk.
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Looks like he's not trying the Ryan Braun school of defense either and is accepting the punishment.
Turns out he did worse.
http://deadspin.com/5935999/melky-cabrera-cooked-up-a-phony-website-to-try-to-beat-his-suspension
And yeah, he appealed...but it was kept quiet like Braun's should have been.
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Turns out he did worse.
http://deadspin.com/5935999/melky-cabrera-cooked-up-a-phony-website-to-try-to-beat-his-suspension
And yeah, he appealed...but it was kept quiet like Braun's should have been.
I've got to applaud that effort though.
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Or revert to switching it back and forth like they used to. There is no evidence that anyone takes the All Star game more seriously because of the home field advantage aspect.
I prefer that they use 3 criteria. Whichever league has the best interleague record, the team with the best record, and the all-star game. This year the AL dominated the NL (again) in regular season interleague, but the NL won the all-star game, so whichever team of the World Series participants has the best record would get home field advantage. Keeps a little juice in the all-star game, but more likely to reward the better team with home field.
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Jurickson Profar homered in his first at bat with Texas today, becoming the first player in Rangers history to homer in his first at bat, the first 1993 born player to hit a home run, and the youngest player to homer in the MLB since Adrian Beltre in 1998. He is a 19 1/2 y/o.
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http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_09_02_pitmlb_milmlb_1&mode=wrap#gid=2012_09_02_pitmlb_milmlb_1&mode=video
This guy would be absolutely scary if he actually took steroids. My goodness. (Edit, the link doesn't take you directly to the video...click on the Video link and go to Braun's 3 run homer on the right) People thought the Braun's production would drop because he was "no longer juicing" and he lost his protection in Prince Fielder. I think you could put a little league team around him against major league pitching and he'd still hit .300 with 30 bombs a year.
Honest question, who is going to win the NL MVP?
- Andrew McCutchen: .344 BA, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 16 SB, .972 OPS
- Ryan Braun: .310 BA, 37 HR, 95 RBI, 22 SB, .996 OPS
- Matt Kemp: .331 BA, 18 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .980 OPS
- Buster Posey: .329 BA, 19 HR, 83 RBI, 1 SB, .935 OPS
- Joey Votto: .342 BA, 14 HR, 49 RBI, 5 SB, 1.069 OPS
- David Wright: .314 BA, 17 HR, 79 RBI, 12 SB, .910 OPS
Last year Kemp had 6 more home runs and 15 more RBI than Braun, while Braun hit 12 points higher than Kemp. The Brewers finished with the 2nd best record in the NL and 96 wins, while the Dodgers finished below .500 with 79 wins.
For these players, the rankings among NL players are as follows:
Batting Average:
- McCutchen 2nd
- Posey 3rd
- Wright 5th
- Braun 7th
- Kemp and Votto do not have enough ABs to qualify
Home Runs:
- Braun 1st (by EIGHT, which is a pretty darn big gap between 1 and 2)
- McCutchen 12th (tied)
- Posey 23rd (tied)
- Kemp 27th (tied)
- Wright 32nd (tied)
RBI:
- Braun 1st
- Posey 10th (tied)
- McCutchen 15th
- Wright 16th
- Kemp and Votto both are outside of the top 40
Stolen Bases
- Braun 16th (tied)
- McCutchen 24th (tied)
- Posey, Wright, Kemp, and Votto are all outside of the top 40
OPS
- Braun 1st
- McCutchen 2nd
- Posey 4th
- Wright 5th
- Votto and Kemp don't have enough ABs to qualify, but Votto would be 1st and Kemp would be 3rd
If you want to include WAR, it is:
- Wright 1st (6.0)
- McCutchen 2nd (5.8)
- Braun 3rd (5.6)
- Posey 6th (5.0)
- Votto 8th (tied at 4.6)
- Kemp is outside of the top 40
Cincinnati is tied for the best record in the NL. SF is 5.0 GB of Cinci, LAD is 10 GB of Cinci, Pitt is 11 GB of Cinci, Milwaukee is 16 GB of Cinci, and NY is 17.5 GB of Cinci.
Cinci and SF will be in the Playoffs. LAD will battle for a Wild Card spot and probably get in. Pittsburgh has a chance but will likely end up out of the Playoffs. Milwaukee and New York will miss the Playoffs.
The combination of the "weaker" stats (compared to the other guys) and being on the worst team of these guys drops Wright out in my opinion.
With Kemp and Votto missing so much time yet their teams still being in the Playoff race (and the Reds really thriving without Votto), plus their stats are nowhere near the other guys (not even giving them enough ABs to qualify for certain batting category rankings) leads me to drop those 2 out in my opinion.
That leaves Posey, Braun, and McCutchen. Posey is putting up really good numbers all while playing the most difficult position to play everyday. McCutchen is a big reason why the Pirates are fighting for a Playoff spot. Braun is arguably the best player in baseball, but on a weak team.
Last year, both Kemp and Braun were in the top 5-10 in just about every major statistical category. While Kemp had the better numbers overall, the gap was not very significant at all. Had both teams been in the Playoffs, chances are Kemp wins the MVP over Braun, but Kemps team finished 13.5 games worse than Braun's. The statistical gap was not big enough to justify giving Kemp the MVP over Braun.
If the Brewers continue to play the way they have been over the last month for the rest of the season, they will finish with a better record than the Pirates, a record above .500 (4 under right now, but winners of 11 of their last 13), and within a couple games of a Wild Card spot (6.5 games back as of right now). To me, that would drop McCutchen out and leave it down to Braun and Posey.
Braun's numbers are significantly better than Posey's in every statistical category except for batting average, which is arguably the least important statistic of them all (along with RBIs). Posey plays a more important position and is a better defender at his position, but Braun's War is still .6 games higher than Posey's.
In my mind, Braun should win the MVP. Their is no stand-out star on a Playoff team this year, or someone who is so close to Braun that the fact that their team is so much better they should get it. Braun's numbers are so much better than everyone else's and the Brewers could still finish fairly close to a Playoff spot. It will be interesting to see because Braun benefitted from playing for a better team last year, if he loses out on a back-to-back MVP for the exact same reason this year.
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I agree with dropping Kemp and Votto to the extent they are short of qualifying. If they qualify by season's end, I think you have to put them back into the conversation.
If the Pirates get in, you almost have to give it to McCutchen. Cincy, LA, SF, Milwaukee, etc. all have multiple high profile guys... The Pirates have one.
If the Pirates don't get into the playoffs and Kemp/Votto don't qualify, I would say its between Posey and Braun. And while I am of the mindset that an MVP from a non playoff team has to be far and away better than the next guy whose team did get in the playoffs, an 18 HR differential is tough to overlook.
Edit: Your analysis may be all for naught... if the Brewers - now only 6 out of the WC (loss column) with 3 to play against StL - were to make it into the postseason, then based on current stats/rank/differential holding, Braun would be the MVP without question, most likely in a unanimous decision
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I think it will be between Braun, McCutchen and Posey. Wright is taken out because of how poor the Mets have played this year, and Kemp and Votto have been injured for large periods of time this season and should not be in consideration. Right now I would say McCutchen would win it. And btw wadesworld the Brewers still have a small chance at the playoffs, I'm a Brewers fan ;). How many people said the Cardinals couldnt make the playoffs last year?
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I think it will be between Braun, McCutchen and Posey. Wright is taken out because of how poor the Mets have played this year, and Kemp and Votto have been injured for large periods of time this season and should not be in consideration. Right now I would say McCutchen would win it. And btw wadesworld the Brewers still have a small chance at the playoffs, I'm a Brewers fan ;). How many people said the Cardinals couldnt make the playoffs last year?
I'm a Brewers fan too, but no. It's not going to happen. The Cardinals had a stacked lineup last year but for whatever reason it took them until the end of the year to put it all together. Their bullpen was also the best in baseball last year, whereas the Brewers is the worst in baseball this year.
1) Aoki vs. Furcal - Furcal by a pretty decent margin
2) Weeks vs. Jay/Craig - Jay/Craig by a slight margin
3) Braun vs. Pujols - push
4) Ramirez vs. Berkman - very slightly to Berkman
5) Hart vs. Holliday - very slightly to Holliday
6) Lucroy vs. Freese - Freese by a pretty decent margin
7) Gomez vs. Molina - Molina by a pretty decent margin
8) Segura/Bianchi vs. Punto - Punto by a large margin
9) Pitcher
Their bench was also better with guys like Daniel Descalso and Ryan Theriot coming off of the bench, compared to the Brewers Cesar Izturis and Travis Ishikawa.
Their top 3 of Chris Carpenter, Edwin Jackson, and Jaime Garcia is far and away better than the Brewers' this year of Yovanni Gallardo, Mike Fiers, and Marco Estrada (or Rodgers or Estrada, whoever the number 3 is right now for the Brewers).
And the bullpens, well...
There's really no comparison whatsoever between last year's Cardinals and this year's Brewers.
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Wades -
Not sure how Holliday is not even in your discussion. His stats are certainly comparable - .307 (9th in NL), HR 25 (8th), RBI 92 (2nd), SB 4 (not top 40), OPS .905 (6th), WAR 4.4 (11th).
And the Cards are in better shape than the Mets, Brewers, Pirates, and essentially tied with the Dodgers. Not saying Holliday would absolutely win it, but I think he belongs in the discussion with the six you already named. By the way, I'm a Cubs fan so it pains me to put a Card in the discussion.
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If the MVP was for the best player, Braun would likely win it this season. However, if it's truly the most valuable player, it's Andrew McCutchen without question.
The Pirates as a team: .246/.301/.404/.704
Without McCutchen: .234/.288/.384/.672
The Brewers as a team: .257/.320/.433/.753
Without Braun: .250/.311/.413/.724
The Brewers' offense without Braun is still better than the Pirates' offensive with McCutchen. The Pirates' second-best player this season has been Garrett Jones who would be the fourth- or fifth-best player on the Brewers (behind Braun, ARam, Lucroy and possibly Hart).
Granted, I don't think Pittsburgh will make the playoffs but to even be in contention at this point is a testament to how great McCutchen has been.
All of that said, I think Posey will win it because sportswriters like to vote for a guy on a playoff team.
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Wades -
Not sure how Holliday is not even in your discussion. His stats are certainly comparable - .307 (9th in NL), HR 25 (8th), RBI 92 (2nd), SB 4 (not top 40), OPS .905 (6th), WAR 4.4 (11th).
And the Cards are in better shape than the Mets, Brewers, Pirates, and essentially tied with the Dodgers. Not saying Holliday would absolutely win it, but I think he belongs in the discussion with the six you already named. By the way, I'm a Cubs fan so it pains me to put a Card in the discussion.
Very good points. I didn't even look at Holliday's numbers this season. I just kind of looked at the players whose names I had heard come up in discussions of NL MVP so far. The combination of his numbers and his teams' success definitely make him an NL MVP candidate, probably one of the top 3 candidates.
If the MVP was for the best player, Braun would likely win it this season. However, if it's truly the most valuable player, it's Andrew McCutchen without question.
The Pirates as a team: .246/.301/.404/.704
Without McCutchen: .234/.288/.384/.672
The Brewers as a team: .257/.320/.433/.753
Without Braun: .250/.311/.413/.724
The Brewers' offense without Braun is still better than the Pirates' offensive with McCutchen. The Pirates' second-best player this season has been Garrett Jones who would be the fourth- or fifth-best player on the Brewers (behind Braun, ARam, Lucroy and possibly Hart).
Granted, I don't think Pittsburgh will make the playoffs but to even be in contention at this point is a testament to how great McCutchen has been.
All of that said, I think Posey will win it because sportswriters like to vote for a guy on a playoff team.
Good points. McCutchen is more valuable to his team than Ryan Braun is to his team. To me, then, it would come down to whether either one has a legitimate shot to make the Playoffs within the last week or so of the season. If both teams miss the Playoffs but are close or both teams miss the Playoffs and neither were really close at all, then I think it goes to Braun due to the better numbers (outside of Batting Average, which is widely agreed upon as a fairly meaningless stat, although so are RBIs which Braun has going for him). If both teams made the Playoffs (no chance, but if), then my guess is it would be Braun because of the better numbers despite McCutchen actually being more valuable to his team, a Playoff team.
I agree that it usually goes to the best player on a Playoff team. If that is the case again this year, then I would say that Holliday deserves it more than anyone looking at his numbers, but my guess is Posey would get it because he is doing what he does while playing catcher. There just seems to be so little hype/discussion about Holliday as MVP.
Overall, I think the numbers show that Braun clearly is having the best year in the NL, but he may lose out on what helped him to win MVP last year. I guess what goes around comes around.
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Overall, I think the numbers show that Braun clearly is having the best year in the NL, but he may lose out on what helped him to win MVP last year. I guess what goes around comes around.
PEDs?
(Come on, it was too easy!)
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PEDs?
(Come on, it was too easy!)
Haha well played
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PEDs?
(Come on, it was too easy!)
Now, now... the MVP voting happens at the end of the regular season, and Braun clearly wasn't juicing until the postseason.
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He'll have slightly more homers than Trout when the season is over and more RBIs, but that's it. Trout will have more runs, a higher batting average, better OPS, significantly more stolen bases, and plays elite defense at a premium position. No too mention he didn't even play the first month so Cabrera had a head start. Obviously there's still two months left in the season, but given their current pace I don't see it as much of a contest.
Cabrera currently leading in batting average and RBI's. Still not much of a contest?
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Cabrera currently leading in batting average and RBI's. Still not much of a contest?
There is a month to play. That is what will decide it. Seriously though, batting average? The difference in their batting averages in .000388. Hardly a point to argue with 25 games left.
Also, RBIs should really be in Cabrera's favor. First of all Cabrera has played in 21 more games than Trout. Secondly he is a middle of the order hitter giving him many more opportunities to drive in runs than Trout, who is a lead off hitter.
Cabrera is on a crazy tear though. He is a scary hitter.
(at least) One of their teams isn't going to make the playoffs. That may be as much a factor as anything.
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I have to admit, I wasn't sure about the 2 wild card system, but how this season is shaking out, it seems like it will be an incredible final month.
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I have to admit, I wasn't sure about the 2 wild card system, but how this season is shaking out, it seems like it will be an incredible final month.
We currently have a 6-team race for the 2nd Wild Card spot, and a 3- or 4- tie is plausible at this point; further, since the only games scheduled amongst the contenders are 4 between the Dodgers/Cards and 3 between each Brewers/Pirates and Dodgers/D-Backs, there is even an outside chance at a 5- or 6-way tie (in the scenarios below) since teams won't be "beating up on each other" for the most part. In such a case, I'm not sure MLB even has a scenario for breaking more than a 4-way tie for one wildcard spot, so things could get very interesting.
St Louis (75-66)
Remaining Games (21): @SD(2), @LAD(4), HOU(3), @CHC(3), @HOU(3), WAS(3), CIN(3)
Potential Scenario: Split road games, home series vs. Hou 2-1, final home series 2-4. (10-11)
Tiebreaker Advantage: MIL & ARI (HTH record)
LA Dodgers (74-67)
Remaining Games (21): @ARI(2), STL(4), @WAS(3), @CIN(3), @SD(3), COL(3), SF(3)
Potential Scenario: Split remaining ARI & STL games, 4-7 road trip, 4-2 final homestand. (11-10)
Tiebreaker Advantage: STL, PIT, PHI (HTH record)
Pittsburgh (72-68)
Remaining Games (22): @CIN(2), @CHC(4), MIL(3), @HOU(3), @NYM(4), CIN(3), ATL(3)
Potential Scenario: Split CIN, 3-1 vs. CHC, 1-2 vs. MIL, 4-3 road trip, 4-2 final homestand (13-9)
Tiebreaker Advantage: STL, ARI, PHI (HTH record)
Milwaukee (70-71)
Remaining Games (21): ATL(2), NYM(3), @PIT(3), @WAS(3), @CIN(3), HOU(3), SD(3)
Potential Scenario: Win each remaining series & go 5-1 on final homestand. (15-6)
Tiebreaker Advantage: LAD, PIT (HTH record); ARI (NL Win pct)
Philadelphia (70-71)
Remaining Games (21): FLA(2), @HOU(4), @NYM(3), ATL(3), WAS(3), @FLA(3), @WAS(3)
Potential Scenario: Split FLA, 6-1 vs HOU & NYM, 4-2 homestand, 4-2 final roadtrip. (15-6)
Tiebreaker Advantage: MIL, STL, ARI (HTH record)
Arizona (69-72)
Remaining Games (21): LAD(2), SF(3), SD(3), @COL(4), @SF(3), CHC(3), COL(3)
Potential Scenario: Split LAD, 5-1 vs. SF & SD, 5-2 road trip, 5-1 final homestand (16-5)
Tiebreaker Advantage: LAD
In most circumstances, tiebreaker priority - in a multiple-team scenario - would go PHI, with MIL/STL/LAD in some order next tier depending on which combination of teams remain, then PIT, and finally ARI.
DISCLAIMER: I recognize the seemingly infinite number of permutations involved in the remaining 21-22 games amongst six teams. For all we know, the 2nd wild card team will finish 10 games ahead of the 3rd place WC team, and the above is moot. I'm not trying to start a debate over individual game outcomes, e.g. "no way are the Brewers going to lose a game to the Mets," "derp, derp," "etc." I'm simply presenting a reasonable scenario where you could have multiple teams tied for the final WC spot going into the last week (and perhaps at the end) of the season.
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Cabrera currently leading in batting average and RBI's. Still not much of a contest?
Cabrera is the best hitter in the game today. With Albert Pujols and (young) Frank Thomas, among the 3 best right handed hitters in the last 40 years. That said, he's a liability at 3rd base when healthy and seriously sub par when playing a little hurt (as he is today). Trout is an elite fielder at an important position and an elite baserunner - reminiscent of the pre-steroid Barry Bonds. My vote goes to the 5 tool guy.
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Trout is an amazing ballplayer. I haven't said otherwise. The interesting thing is who will be MVP if neither the Tigers nor the Angels make the playoffs. And for the record, I held out a long time but Leyland needs to be fired. The Tigers have no heart and Leyland is managing without passion or intelligence right now. Victor Martinez and Inge were the clubhouse leaders last year. Tigers traded Inge (and kept Rayburn, oy) and VMart's absence, while it led to the Fielder signing, is more evident in the lack of clutch hitting from anyone. His influence led to the Tigers actually grinding out at-bats last year. 4 consecutive hits in the second inning last night led to one run. If I had $1 for every time the Tigers have failed to get the runner in from 3rd with less than two outs this year, I could make a house payment. This is more frustrating for a Detroit fan than the 2008 Lions. We knew they sucked, the only question was how bad. For a team with this much talent to underperform it by this much.......Leyland must go and the next coach has got to come in chewing iron and crapping nails.
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As of this morning, 19 of 30 teams are within 3.5 games of a playoff spot (and above .500). Take away the second WC spot and that number of teams in contention drops to 12. 60% increase in teams playing meaningful games in September. Not too shabby.
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Cabrera currently leading in batting average and RBI's. Still not much of a contest?
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/28887/al-mvp-debate-cabrera-versus-trout
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That does a great job of summing up Trout's candidacy.
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This is right. The Brewers are also team that will always have the added complication to any deal(s) or non-deal(s) of needing to get fans through the turnstiles. They really cannot afford to write of seasons or portions of seasons if they can help it, as some larger market teams can. Obviously, if they are 15 out at the deadline, your sucking wind and you have no choice but to salvage what you can via trade, but if they are middle of the road, MA and DM are for the most part try to compete.
Melvin is not stupid enough to make a decision based on some surprise 9 game hot streak. He knows what he has, just as he knows what the remaining schedule is, etc. They have a decent lineup, including a guy that could be the MVP again, formidable rotation (if healthy), and a bullpen that last year was a strength, and cannot possibly perform worse than it has thus far (I hope not anyway). If a team matching that description is sitting 4-5 back at the deadline, however you got there' will at worst stand pat, and at best try to add a piece or two. Or, maybe even a little of both, like trading a K-rod for a player that could potentially help in another area right away, as an example.
Every win counts the same no matter when they happen. Particularly with the expanded playoffs, if you think you have a chance to play meaningful games in September, if you're the Milwaukee Brewers, you have little choice but to go for it (Ina responsible way of course).
Or you keep the K-Rod and trade away an ace starting pitcher for an everyday SS, perhaps?
That sound you might have heard was my hindsight analyzer exploding just now.
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Is Segura really going to be the everyday SS next year? I guess he probably should be...but I wouldn't mind a decent veteran backup. I like Gonzalez, but they aren't picking up his option at $4M.
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Brewer fans, when Prince played 1st base for you, was he able to dig the ball out of the dirt? 1/2 dozen times in the last couple of weeks he has fanned on throws skipping in.
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Brewer fans, when Prince played 1st base for you, was he able to dig the ball out of the dirt? 1/2 dozen times in the last couple of weeks he has fanned on throws skipping in.
He wasn't half bad at that. His defensive shortcomings were a range issue more than anything.
Is Segura really going to be the everyday SS next year? I guess he probably should be...but I wouldn't mind a decent veteran backup. I like Gonzalez, but they aren't picking up his option at $4M.
If they sign a veteran utility guy he maybe goes to AAA to start the season. Probably not though. Has held his own defensively and the lineup is strong enough to let him learn to hit in the 8 spot if he doesn't tank it in the spring.
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Brewer fans, when Prince played 1st base for you, was he able to dig the ball out of the dirt? 1/2 dozen times in the last couple of weeks he has fanned on throws skipping in.
Saw the one he missed today - it didn't look very difficult and he wasn't even close.
Another question on Prince. Is he really a vegetarian? At what, maybe 5'11", 325, that's a hell of a lot of hay every day.
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Saw the one he missed today - it didn't look very difficult and he wasn't even close.
Another question on Prince. Is he really a vegetarian? At what, maybe 5'11", 325, that's a hell of a lot of hay every day.
so the story goes. he allegedly read skinny bitch and the rest was history.
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As of this morning, 19 of 30 teams are within 3.5 games of a playoff spot (and above .500). Take away the second WC spot and that number of teams in contention drops to 12. 60% increase in teams playing meaningful games in September. Not too shabby.
Sure, there are a lot of teams still in the race but does anyone else feel like it cheapens the playoffs since a lot of the teams still in contention have no business being in contention for a playoff spot, specifically in the NL?
That said, if the Cubs were hovering around .500 but playing games that mattered, maybe I'd be singing a different tune.
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Sure, there are a lot of teams still in the race but does anyone else feel like it cheapens the playoffs since a lot of the teams still in contention have no business being in contention for a playoff spot, specifically in the NL?
In my opinion, yes and no.
I was originally against the second wild card, (as I was against the first wild card). If I had my druthers, I would like there to be two divisions in each league, with the West winner playing the East winner for a chance to advance to the World Series. (I also don't want interleague play or for the All-Star game to determine home field, but have no problem with the DH; I basically want baseball from 1987 again).
That said, I feel the second wild card actually cheapens the first wild card, almost- but not entirely- correcting a wrong.
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Sure, there are a lot of teams still in the race but does anyone else feel like it cheapens the playoffs since a lot of the teams still in contention have no business being in contention for a playoff spot, specifically in the NL?
That said, if the Cubs were hovering around .500 but playing games that mattered, maybe I'd be singing a different tune.
Yes. The wild card chase is more exciting, though I suspect the one game playoff will be a big letdown after all the build-up of the race to get in. And the first round system of the wild card team hosting the top seed first in a 2-3 is ridiculous.
My idea for the whole “not enough teams make the playoffs” issue would be a rotation system; every 4-7 years (preferably closer to the 7) they should double the playoff size to 8 per league and play an extra best of 5 round. That way the small market teams can always try to make a run in the year when the playoffs expand, you’d see a ton of hype and excitement, but the “cheapening” of the playoff system would only come around once every few years and we'd keep the 4 teams per league format in other years.
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Frack it, I will bring it up. Thoughts on this Brewers run? ESPN has them as a statistically 9% chance to make the playoffs, up from a .1% a month ago.
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Frack it, I will bring it up. Thoughts on this Brewers run? ESPN has them as a statistically 9% chance to make the playoffs, up from a .1% a month ago.
Glad to be able to scoreboard watch, but it's still a huge longshot.
They're gonna have to play near perfect ball over these next 10, since St. Louis has 6 with the Astros and 3 with the Cubs.
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Sure, there are a lot of teams still in the race but does anyone else feel like it cheapens the playoffs since a lot of the teams still in contention have no business being in contention for a playoff spot, specifically in the NL?
That said, if the Cubs were hovering around .500 but playing games that mattered, maybe I'd be singing a different tune.
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Frack it, I will bring it up. Thoughts on this Brewers run? ESPN has them as a statistically 9% chance to make the playoffs, up from a .1% a month ago.
I blame you.
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In my opinion, yes and no.
I was originally against the second wild card, (as I was against the first wild card). If I had my druthers, I would like there to be two divisions in each league, with the West winner playing the East winner for a chance to advance to the World Series. (I also don't want interleague play or for the All-Star game to determine home field, but have no problem with the DH; I basically want baseball from 1987 again).
That said, I feel the second wild card actually cheapens the first wild card, almost- but not entirely- correcting a wrong.
I think I disagree, since the two wild cards will have to play it out to play a division champ. I like how it puts more emphasis on the division and challenges the Wild Cards a bit more.
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I think I disagree, since the two wild cards will have to play it out to play a division champ. I like how it puts more emphasis on the division and challenges the Wild Cards a bit more.
Personally, I'd like to see 2 divisions in each league and 2 Wild Cards in each league. The WC teams play the division winners best of 5 in a 2-1-2 format (i.e. only 1 home game for the Wild Card teams). Give the division winners a distinct advantage in the LDS.
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I think I disagree, since the two wild cards will have to play it out to play a division champ. I like how it puts more emphasis on the division and challenges the Wild Cards a bit more.
I think thats what he meant by righting a wrong - ie making it harder for a wild card team to make a deep run. I'm on board with this train of thought (unless I'm misreading every one). In addition to having to win the one game playoff, there's no overstating how important it is to take the WC winner's rotation out of schedule. Most teams are in the WC because they don't have a ton of pitching depth, and you basically force that team to use 4 SPs in the first two rounds.
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OK, shout it out if you had Oakland winning the AL West..... (crickets)
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Texas Rangers in first place for 178 days, then get swept by Oakland to lose the Division. Longest stay in front, then lose, in MLB history.
Tonight Yankees/Sox, then Orioles/Rays for first place. Yanks lose, O's win, then a one game playoff. Exciting stuff for MLB.
Bobby V of Sox to be canned after the game, so lets see what he does tonight with his lineup. Go O's......
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I think thats what he meant by righting a wrong - ie making it harder for a wild card team to make a deep run. I'm on board with this train of thought (unless I'm misreading every one). In addition to having to win the one game playoff, there's no overstating how important it is to take the WC winner's rotation out of schedule. Most teams are in the WC because they don't have a ton of pitching depth, and you basically force that team to use 4 SPs in the first two rounds.
I disagree. Why should the Orioles and Rangers be at a disadvantage to the Tigers, when they both had better records in tougher divisions?. The Tigers would have finished 4th in the AL East or AL West. The best wild card will usually have a better record than at least one division winner. Further, the AL would have been MORE exciting with only one wild card as the four teams would have been worried about total exclusion. Last year was one of the greatest last days ever and it would not have been if there were 2 wild cards. The second wild card will reduce excitement as often as it creates it, and all for the sake of punishing a team that usually isn't the worst of the 4 playoff teams in the league.
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Anyone care to make predictions about the playoffs. I won't. Having watched >140 Tiger games this year, I can honestly say they have an equal chance of getting swept by the A's as they have winning it all.
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Anyone care to make predictions about the playoffs. I won't. Having watched >140 Tiger games this year, I can honestly say they have an equal chance of getting swept by the A's as they have winning it all.
AL:
Wild Card: Orioles beat Rangers
ALDS: A's beat Tigers
ALDS: Yankees beat Orioles
ALCS: Yankees beat A's
NL:
Wild Card: Braves beat Cards
NLDS: Giants beat Reds
NLDS: Braves beat Nats
NLCS: Braves beat Giants
World Series: Braves beat Yankees
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The Braves are just killing themselves
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The Braves are just killing themselves
Maybe we should blame the replacement umps?
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looks like my prediction 3 posts up has already been destroyed, guess I'll say I like the Nats now. Stinkin Cards.
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Cards will win it all again. And I'll cry myself to sleep again.
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AL:
ALDS: Tigers over A's (with the Tigers winning every game not started by Verlander)
ALDS: Orioles over Yankees (with the Yankees losing at least two at The Stadium)
ALCS: Tigers over Orioles (w/ Prince having a big series and the O's closer Johnson blowing a game)
NL:
NLDS: Giants over Reds (w/ the headlines focusing on how Baker screwed it up)
NLDS: Cards over Nats (w/ St. Louis getting unexpected power from some middle infielder or back-up catcher)
NLCS: Gaints over Cards (with Matt Cain as the MVP of the series that goes seven games)
World Series: Giants over Tigers (w/ Detroit's poor defense finally catching up with them)
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AL:
ALDS: Tigers over A's (with the Tigers winning every game not started by Verlander)
ALDS: Orioles over Yankees (with the Yankees losing at least two at The Stadium)
ALCS: Tigers over Orioles (w/ Prince having a big series and the O's closer Johnson blowing a game)
NL:
NLDS: Giants over Reds (w/ the headlines focusing on how Baker screwed it up)
NLDS: Cards over Nats (w/ St. Louis getting unexpected power from some middle infielder or back-up catcher)
NLCS: Gaints over Cards (with Matt Cain as the MVP of the series that goes seven games)
World Series: Giants over Tigers (w/ Detroit's poor defense finally catching up with them)
I like this prediction. Add in Jim Johnson shutting down the Yankees in Mariano fashion.
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I like this prediction. Add in Jim Johnson shutting down the Yankees in Mariano fashion.
Ouch, not so much on this one PTM...can't win em all.
Awesome game last night. Amazing comeback by the Cards (admittedly bias as a Stl fan)!!
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Ouch, not so much on this one PTM...can't win em all.
Awesome game last night. Amazing comeback by the Cards (admittedly bias as a Stl fan)!!
I am so frustrated that the Cards cant lose a series. They seem to be under God's watch or something.
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Jeter with a fractured ankle. I am clearly a Tiger fan, but I would infinitely prefer having Jeter out there.
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Jeter with a fractured ankle. I am clearly a Tiger fan, but I would infinitely prefer having Jeter out there.
It really didnt look that bad when I watched it in real time but in slow-mo zoomed in he really rolled it bad.
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I am so frustrated that the Cards cant lose a series. They seem to be under God's watch or something.
I also root against the Cardinals, but think that the "Cardinals Luck" discussion is becoming overblown.
The fact is that St. Louis makes the playoffs very, very often, and has bad and good luck once in the postseason. Just in the last 10 years, they've had their fair share of both good and bad postseasons:
In '02 they lost in the NLCS to the Wild Card Giants
In '04 they won 105 games but lost to the luckiest-team-of-all-time Boston Red Sox
In '05 they lost a heart-breaking NLCS to the Wild Card Houston Astros
In '06 they won the World Series by defeating a (probably superior) Detroit team
In '09 they got swept by the Dodgers despite winning 91 games in the regular season, including losing a game because Matt Holliday botched a routine fly ball
In '11 they won the World Series in exceptional fashion.
If you make the playoffs in 6/10 years, anything can, and probably will, happen. (Unless you're the Braves).
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I also root against the Cardinals, but think that the "Cardinals Luck" discussion is becoming overblown.
The fact is that St. Louis makes the playoffs very, very often, and has bad and good luck once in the postseason. Just in the last 10 years, they've had their fair share of both good and bad postseasons:
In '02 they lost in the NLCS to the Wild Card Giants
In '04 they won 105 games but lost to the luckiest-team-of-all-time Boston Red Sox
In '05 they lost a heart-breaking NLCS to the Wild Card Houston Astros
In '06 they won the World Series by defeating a (probably superior) Detroit team
In '09 they got swept by the Dodgers despite winning 91 games in the regular season, including losing a game because Matt Holliday botched a routine fly ball
In '11 they won the World Series in exceptional fashion.
If you make the playoffs in 6/10 years, anything can, and probably will, happen. (Unless you're the Braves).
There was nothing unlucky about the Cardinals loss to the Red Sox in '04. They got swept, and completely embarrassed in the World Series. Whoever won the Yankees vs. Red Sox series was going to sweep the World Series.
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Whoever won the Yankees vs. Red Sox series was going to sweep the World Series.
The exact same thing was said in '03, when the Yankees lost to the Wild Card Marlins.
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The exact same thing was said in '03, when the Yankees lost to the Wild Card Marlins.
Still, a sweep can hardly be called lucky or unlucky.
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Still, a sweep can hardly be called lucky or unlucky.
That was total domination by the Red Sox. Not only did the Cardinals never have a lead, they were only even tied after 1 inning out of 36. The Red Sox took the lead in the first inning of every game and never looked back.
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There was nothing unlucky about the Cardinals loss to the Red Sox in '04. They got swept, and completely embarrassed in the World Series. Whoever won the Yankees vs. Red Sox series was going to sweep the World Series.
Nope, and there was nothing lucky about the 2 World Series they've in the last 6 years. They have good squads year-in and year-out for the most part.
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No World Series talk? Giants up 2 games to zero over Detroit.
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No World Series talk? Giants up 2 games to zero over Detroit.
I predicted Giants in 6 to start the series.
Detroit has gone cold, but it's still been very entertaining to watch.
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Where it stands doesn't surprise me. Detroit offense has been spotty throughout the playoffs (and throughout the year, for that matter). The only real surprise was Verlander getting rocked.
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Where it stands doesn't surprise me. Detroit offense has been spotty throughout the playoffs (and throughout the year, for that matter). The only real surprise was Verlander getting rocked.
Prior to this season, Verlander's postseason record was very poor, and while he was dominant against the A's and Yanks, the A's are a free-swinging strikeout machine tailor-made for Verlander, and the Yankees couldn't hit anybody not named Valverde in the playoffs.
Tigers had the 7th best record in AL, and had exactly a .500 record when not playing against the wretched AL Central during the season. They were rewarded for this by getting two homes games to start the postseason against a better team that had to fight their way into the postseason right up until the last day of the season. They won the first series because Coco Crisp (usually an exceptional defender) dropped a fly ball in game 2 and then were fortunate to play the aging and beat up Yankees (who were spent before they got to the ALCS.) They have an excellent rotation, a weak bullpen, weaker defense and an offense centered around two truly outstanding hitters. If those two guys don't hit, they are going to have lots of trouble scoring runs.
It's the nature of the beast in baseball that the best teams usually don't advance to the World Series, and no outcome in a MLB postseason series should be that surprising.
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I think we are saying the same thing, only from different perspectives. I have now watched over 160 Tiger games this year. 3.5 hitters have been consistent this year; Cabrera, Fielder, Jackson, and Dirks (.5 of the year) Look at the averages of EVERY OTHER HITTER, particularly RISP, and you can understand (A) why the Tigers regular season record was poor and (B) how they can be behind 2-0 against the Giants. Offensively, Detroit does not extend at bats, does not take the extra base, does not consistently do situational hitting. Every borderline call that Lamont has made at third this year has been the wrong one.
Teams that do what the Giants do offensively, extend at-bats, don't strike out, run up pitch counts, thrive against Detroit pitching. Every reliever for Detroit has been a weak link at some point this year. Valverde just happens to have lost it at the worst possible time. I said a month ago that Detroit was done, and then they went and got just hot enough while the White Sox imploded.
Detroit can still win, but I don't think they do. I agree that it will probably be Giants in 6.
Late edit: One other thing missing from Detroit is that refuse-to-lose, run-through-a-brickwall dirtbag, a la Scutaro, Pence, Pagan. There is nobody in that clubhouse screaming to rally the troops. And it has been missing all year. No one to consistently start a late-inning rally, make that diving stop etc.
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Painful. Interesting stat brought up last night. Through last night's game, all time record in the WS of a team that swept the LCS vs a team that went 7 to win the LCS: 1-15 Still looking for that dirtbag that refuses to lose.
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Painful. Interesting stat brought up last night. Through last night's game, all time record in the WS of a team that swept the LCS vs a team that went 7 to win the LCS: 1-15 Still looking for that dirtbag that refuses to lose.
I'm sorry but no "dirtbag" is going to save a team that hits .159 in the WS. The Tigers have talent but the time off and the Giants' pitching kept them out of rhythm. Teams win the World Series because of talent, not because of dirtbags or grinders or screamers or whatever you want to call them. Prior to this season, the Giants you mentioned who "refuse to lose" (Pagan, Scutaro and Pence) had been to the playoffs a combined 2 times in 21 seasons. Scutaro was actually the starting SS for the Red Sox when they collapsed last September.
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I'm sorry but no "dirtbag" is going to save a team that hits .159 in the WS. The Tigers have talent but the time off and the Giants' pitching kept them out of rhythm. Teams win the World Series because of talent, not because of dirtbags or grinders or screamers or whatever you want to call them. Prior to this season, the Giants you mentioned who "refuse to lose" (Pagan, Scutaro and Pence) had been to the playoffs a combined 2 times in 21 seasons. Scutaro was actually the starting SS for the Red Sox when they collapsed last September.
+1. Well said.
That being said, Scutaro had a very good year and was a perfect fit for what the Giants needed this year. That doesn't mean that he would be good fit for the Tigers, or even for next year's Giants.
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Painful. Interesting stat brought up last night. Through last night's game, all time record in the WS of a team that swept the LCS vs a team that went 7 to win the LCS: 1-15 Still looking for that dirtbag that refuses to lose.
It's really 2-16, but still an amazing stat.
1988, Dodgers beat A's 4-1
2006, Cards beath Tigers, 4-1
2007, Red Sox beat Rockies 4-0
2012, Giants beat Tigers 4-0
When it was 5 games for the championship series, it was pretty even (LCS sweepers won 3 of 5 series and 16-12 overall in games)
1976, Reds (3-0 NLCS) beat Yankees (3-2 ALCS), 4-0
1980, Phillies (3-2 NLCS) beat Royals (3-0 ALCS), 4-2
1981, Dodgers (3-2 NLCS) beat Yankees (3-0 ALCS), 4-2
1982, Cardinals (3-0 NLCS) beat Brewers (3-2 ALCS), 4-3
1984, Tigers (3-0 ALCS) beat Padres (3-2 NLCS), 4-1
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Even though the MVP voting took place over three weeks ago (~Oct 3), Posey's less-than-spectacular post-season (.200/.294/.350) pretty much sums up why I think the whole "MVP voting preference" that's given to players who are in the post-season is a bunch of garbage. If you're going to give Posey and Molina (who had the same .200/.294 line before his meaningless 4 for 4 performance in StL's 0-9 Game 7 loss) extra credit because the Giants and Cards were in the post-season, then wait until the post-season is over before taking the vote.
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Even though the MVP voting took place over three weeks ago (~Oct 3), Posey's less-than-spectacular post-season (.200/.294/.350) pretty much sums up why I think the whole "MVP voting preference" that's given to players who are in the post-season is a bunch of garbage. If you're going to give Posey and Molina (who had the same .200/.294 line before his meaningless 4 for 4 performance in StL's 0-9 Game 7 loss) extra credit because the Giants and Cards were in the post-season, then wait until the post-season is over before taking the vote.
The award is for the regular season.
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It's really 2-16, but still an amazing stat.
1988, Dodgers beat A's 4-1
2006, Cards beath Tigers, 4-1
2007, Red Sox beat Rockies 4-0
2012, Giants beat Tigers 4-0
When it was 5 games for the championship series, it was pretty even (LCS sweepers won 3 of 5 series and 16-12 overall in games)
1976, Reds (3-0 NLCS) beat Yankees (3-2 ALCS), 4-0
1980, Phillies (3-2 NLCS) beat Royals (3-0 ALCS), 4-2
1981, Dodgers (3-2 NLCS) beat Yankees (3-0 ALCS), 4-2
1982, Cardinals (3-0 NLCS) beat Brewers (3-2 ALCS), 4-3
1984, Tigers (3-0 ALCS) beat Padres (3-2 NLCS), 4-1
Then Joe Buck and Timmy got it wrong on Saturday night. No worries. Same basic principle. One of the (many) Tiger's flaws in the WS was that they had taken on the flatline personality of Leyland. There is no position player on that team that is a clubhouse leader. There was no passion from the Tigers. Nobody to lead. SF had that.
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Then Joe Buck and Timmy got it wrong on Saturday night. No worries. Same basic principle. One of the (many) Tiger's flaws in the WS was that they had taken on the flatline personality of Leyland. There is no position player on that team that is a clubhouse leader. There was no passion from the Tigers. Nobody to lead. SF had that.
That's funny...everyone kept asking how the Brewers were gonna replace Prince's leadership in the clubhouse this season. Guess he left that behind.
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The award is for the regular season.
Semantics, I suppose.
Nevertheless, to pad an MVP candidate's resume by saying that he "accomplished" getting his team to the post-season during the regular season is ridiculous. A post-season appearance is a team accomplishment, not an individual achievement (unless said candidate had more runs/RBI's than the opposition in every one of the team's wins and no plate appearances in all of the team's losses).
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That's funny...everyone kept asking how the Brewers were gonna replace Prince's leadership in the clubhouse this season. Guess he left that behind.
He actually downplayed his leadership and the need to get fired up in the clubhouse this year. A calming influence is a good thing, but knowing when to get fired up is important, too.
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Semantics, I suppose.
Nevertheless, to pad an MVP candidate's resume by saying that he "accomplished" getting his team to the post-season during the regular season is ridiculous. A post-season appearance is a team accomplishment, not an individual achievement (unless said candidate had more runs/RBI's than the opposition in every one of the team's wins and no plate appearances in all of the team's losses).
I forget, was this the consensus opinion of Brewer fans last season when Kemp had better stats than Braun, but Braun's team got into the playoffs?
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I forget, was this the consensus opinion of Brewer fans last season when Kemp had better stats than Braun, but Braun's team got into the playoffs?
Good luck finding any consensus on anything amongst baseball fans.
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Good luck finding any consensus on anything amongst baseball fans.
Ok fine.
I forget, was this the prevailing feeling among Brewer fans last season when Kemp had better stats than Braun, but Braun's team got into the playoffs?
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I'm a Brewer fan and I think Posey should get the MVP over Braun. Braun might have had slightly better power numbers, but Posey caught 114 games this year. I always give the benefit of the doubt to a catcher versus a left fielder. Much more mentally and physically demanding.
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I'm a Brewer fan and I think Posey should get the MVP over Braun. Braun might have had slightly better power numbers, but Posey caught 114 games this year. I always give the benefit of the doubt to a catcher versus a left fielder. Much more mentally and physically demanding.
Braun is not going to be the MVP this season or any in the near future. He will likely finish no better than third behind Posey and McCutchen. Too many voters view him as a cheater. Jayson Stark wrote this about Braun in an article earlier this season...
I'd bet at least one-third of this year's MVP voters don't give him even a top-10 vote. And that will be that. And you know what? If that happens, it won't just be the ban-'em-all-for-life crowd that cheers. So will people who work in this sport. Some of them.
One last story: As I was working on this column, I asked one of the scouts quoted earlier which player he thought was the National League MVP. His answer said it all.
"Anybody," he said, "but Ryan Braun."
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8375277/buster-posey-andrew-mccutchen-ryan-braun-wild-national-league-mvp-race-mlb (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8375277/buster-posey-andrew-mccutchen-ryan-braun-wild-national-league-mvp-race-mlb)
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Braun is not going to be the MVP this season or any in the near future. He will likely finish no better than third behind Posey and McCutchen. Too many voters view him as a cheater. Jayson Stark wrote this about Braun in an article earlier this season...
I'd bet at least one-third of this year's MVP voters don't give him even a top-10 vote. And that will be that. And you know what? If that happens, it won't just be the ban-'em-all-for-life crowd that cheers. So will people who work in this sport. Some of them.
One last story: As I was working on this column, I asked one of the scouts quoted earlier which player he thought was the National League MVP. His answer said it all.
"Anybody," he said, "but Ryan Braun."
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8375277/buster-posey-andrew-mccutchen-ryan-braun-wild-national-league-mvp-race-mlb (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8375277/buster-posey-andrew-mccutchen-ryan-braun-wild-national-league-mvp-race-mlb)
It's probably worth mentioning that Stark used his opening twelve paragraphs to explain why he, personally, isn't going to allow the drug test to factor into his voting and used the above strictly as a counterpoint in the final three paragraphs. I'm not at all discounting what he said; however, you've got one voter on the record basically saying that he would vote for Braun but only speculation that others (up to one-third according to Stark) will not.
In any event, it's a bit too premature to say that "too many voters view him as a cheater;" he's not an admitted cheater like Bonds, McGwire, etc. and that's where I see the potential for internal conflict within those journalists who "feel a need to make moral statements on behalf of the planet" yet are skewed to the end of the spectrum that goes off the deep end the moment anyone tampers with an individual's due process.
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Rookies of the Year announced.
A no-brainer in the AL: Mike Trout
Bryce Harper wins it in the NL based on reputation. Both Miley and Frazier had better seasons.
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Rookies of the Year announced.
A no-brainer in the AL: Mike Trout
Bryce Harper wins it in the NL based on reputation. Both Miley and Frazier had better seasons.
Harper had a higher WAR than both. Barely over Miley according to fangraphs but by a lot according to baseball refernce and in both over Frazier.
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Rookies of the Year announced.
A no-brainer in the AL: Mike Trout
Bryce Harper wins it in the NL based on reputation. Both Miley and Frazier had better seasons.
Seems a bit unfair to Harper. Harper had more Runs, Steals, Singles, (tied in doubles) Triples, Home Runs, Walks and a higher OBP than Frazier. The numbers in most categories were very close, though steals, runs, and walks all went heavily to Harper. Both had very strong seasons, I think for the offensive players, I would have given the edge to Harper.
Miley had a great season, if I had a vote, that is probably where I would have gone. But I can certainly understand giving it to a player that was contributing everyday, and on a contender no less.
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Harper had a higher WAR than both. Barely over Miley according to fangraphs but by a lot according to baseball refernce and in both over Frazier.
Frazier had a better OPS. Remember when the baseball nerds declared OPS the most important stat? ;) I don't understand why WAR is now such a hot stat when you consider that there's not a consistent way to calculate it.
Anyway, I would have voted for Miley. The way I calculate WAR, he was ahead of Harper.
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Torii Hunter to the Tigers for two years. Perfect. Clubouse presence, mentor for the young guys, lets Garcia and Castellanos develop for another year or two. Bat him second or 6th.
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Torii Hunter to the Tigers for two years. Perfect. Clubouse presence, mentor for the young guys, lets Garcia and Castellanos develop for another year or two. Bat him second or 6th.
He's the best. He has been so great for the Halos here....first class all the way. You'll love, absolutely love his infectious attitude. Hate to see him go, but we're screwed with the Vernon Wells situation and have so many great outfielders (Trout, Bourjos, etc) at low cost that it became inevitable. Good get by the Tigers.
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I energetically lamented the lack of clubhouse leadership for the Tigers this year. IMO, this directly addresses it. In addition, with the return of Victor Martinez, I expect to see fewer teamwide slumps.
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Trout or Cabrera?
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8631348/mlb-2012-american-league-most-valuable-player
I'm hoping for Kid Fish and I think the numbers are there, but we'll see what the voters say.
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Trout or Cabrera?
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8631348/mlb-2012-american-league-most-valuable-player
I'm hoping for Kid Fish and I think the numbers are there, but we'll see what the voters say.
Cabrera's going to win.
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Cabrera's going to win.
Yup, he did. I disagree, ESPN did as well with their experts but such is life. I didn't understand "made the postseason" argument because the Halos had a better record than the Tigers but played in the AL's best division. The Tigers would have finished in 4th place in the AL West, but some people put a lot of credence into that. Again, such is life.
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I was getting ready to bust out...."WAR, huh, good God, what is it good for?..Absolutely nothing say it again...." Triple crown trumped a lot as did stats over the last 5 weeks. Trout will get his...helluva player.
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I was getting ready to bust out...."WAR, huh, good God, what is it good for?..Absolutely nothing say it again...." Triple crown trumped a lot as did stats over the last 5 weeks. Trout will get his...helluva player.
Hopefully, but no guarantees in life. Marino still looking for his Super Bowl ring.
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Yup, he did. I disagree, ESPN did as well with their experts but such is life. I didn't understand "made the postseason" argument because the Halos had a better record than the Tigers but played in the AL's best division. The Tigers would have finished in 4th place in the AL West, but some people put a lot of credence into that. Again, such is life.
Trout was on another planet in June and July, but only hit .284 in August and .257 in September - either he wore down or the pitchers started to figure him out. Cabrera was consistently excellent throughout the season.
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Trout was on another planet in June and July, but only hit .284 in August and .257 in September - either he wore down or the pitchers started to figure him out. Cabrera was consistently excellent throughout the season.
There is an award for best hitter, called Silver Slugger.
Let's also not forget down the stretch who each player had to go against. Trout had to face mostly the AL West staffs down the stretch....Oakland #2 in AL pitching, Seattle #4, Texas #7. The AL Central...well the worst two pitching staffs in the entire league were in the AL Central. Different pitching staffs. KC and Chicago were also in the bottom half at #9 and #10...so four of the 6 worst pitching staffs in the AL were in the AL Central. That's living large on some weaker pitching.
I guess I look at it as even down the stretch, who was out there stealing bases, scoring runs at a record pace, taking away runs on defense and leading his team to a better record? It is about all around player, not just best hitter, which Miguel clearly was this year....but it helps to know what kind of pitching they faced, the type of competition (the AL Central was not very good), the ballpark you play in (Angel stadium rated 27th while Comerica was rated 9th), etc, etc.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
We'll never know, but I would love to see what Trout would have done all year long playing as many games in the AL Central and playing at Comerica and vice versa what Miguel would have done in the AL West and having to play in Anaheim or even on the west coast. A great article by MLB a few months ago about how much harder it is to hit on the west coast because of the marine layer and such. Albert was saying as much in a few interviews this year...balls he hit that normally flew out in St. Louis are warning track power here on the coast.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120617&content_id=33487892&vkey=news_la&c_id=la
I think most voters don't factor that stuff in.
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There is an award for best hitter, called Silver Slugger.
Let's also not forget down the stretch who each player had to go against. Trout had to face mostly the AL West staffs down the stretch....Oakland #2 in AL pitching, Seattle #4, Texas #7. The AL Central...well the worst two pitching staffs in the entire league were in the AL Central. Different pitching staffs. KC and Chicago were also in the bottom half at #9 and #10...so four of the 6 worst pitching staffs in the AL were in the AL Central. That's living large on some weaker pitching.
I don't know about that - the Angels had the highest team batting average in the American League for August and September, so either they were crushing the ball or the pitching that they were facing wasn't that great.
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Agree with Chico's that Trout deserved it, but Cabrera also a deserving recipient. The Triple Crown is hard to overlook, but it's odd that if Josh Hamilton hit two more HRs there's a good chance that Trout may have won the MVP. Cabrera was arguably better the last two seasons. Guy is a great, great hitter.
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Agree with Chico's that Trout deserved it, but Cabrera also a deserving recipient. The Triple Crown is hard to overlook, but it's odd that if Josh Hamilton hit two more HRs there's a good chance that Trout may have won the MVP. Cabrera was arguably better the last two seasons. Guy is a great, great hitter.
I think the correct player won the award. Cabrera was just ridiculous. He had an OPS over 1.000 each of the season's last 3 months. Trout had one month all season with an OPS over 1.000. Not only did Cabrera win the triple crown, but he had more doubles that Trout had doubles and triples combined (obviously Cabrera had 0 triples). Cabrera also, despite being a "power hitter" and winning the triple crown, struck out 41 fewer times than Trout did.
I was all on board for Trout winning the MVP in August, and even early September. But Cabrera went crazy. He propelled his team from a deficit to the playoffs. He out did Trout in all of the most important offensive categories. (H, HR, RBI, BA, 2B, SLG, OPS, TB -- even if you add all Trout's steals into his TB, Cabrera is still ahead). Trout was amazing. He was the best player in baseball through the first 5 months of the season. But by the end, Cabrera had surpassed him.
In my opinion, Cabrera was the best player in the league by the conclusion of the season. The dominance of his offensive performance was just too much.
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In 2010, Cabrera had better numbers than Hamilton, but the Rangers made the postseason and the Tigers did a second half death spiral. Also, IIRC, no AL player has won the MVP from a non-playoff team in the last 9 years. Finally, little known fact. The year that Ted Williams won the triple crown but finished second (by one point) to DiMaggio, one of the NY beat writers failed to put Williams in his top 10, as he thought Ted was a jerk.
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"Let's also not forget down the stretch who each player had to go against. Trout had to face mostly the AL West staffs down the stretch....Oakland #2 in AL pitching, Seattle #4, Texas #7. The AL Central...well the worst two pitching staffs in the entire league were in the AL Central. Different pitching staffs. KC and Chicago were also in the bottom half at #9 and #10...so four of the 6 worst pitching staffs in the AL were in the AL Central. That's living large on some weaker pitching."
I think that is a little deceiving. Cabrera faced the AL Central yes, which his team resides in, and made the World Series from, and they weren't the best team in that division for most of the season. It took an epic collapse' by the White Sox to get the Tigers into the playoffs, where they then proceeded to destroy teams from "better" divisions.
You also fail to mention that Trout faced the White Sox later in the season than the Tigers did. The Angels also played the Royals in the last month of the season. While the Tigers also faced 2 AL West teams in September, Anaheim and Oakland.
You also say the Rangers are a better staff, and the White Sox a lesser staff. Did you know there was a difference of .03 runs between their ERAs? That doesn't seem to be a significant difference. The White Sox were tied for 8th, and the Rangers were 7th.
Did you know the Sox had 2 of the 5 or 6 best pitchers in the AL this season? Sale pitched against the Tigers 3 times, and Peavy 6 times. That is half the games the Tigers played against the Sox with Cabrera facing a better starting pitcher than anyone that Trout would have faced regularly from the AL West, except Felix (5 times-- he was basically statistically equal to Sale). Looking at the team numbers doesn't tell the entire story.
And while Seattle has great numbers for a pitching staff, they have 1 great pitcher, and a great pitchers park. They don't exactly have a killer staff. Felix, Vargas, a decent pen, but Safeco is their next best pitcher.
Over the course of an entire season. I think all this pretty much evens out. Cabrera was better and more valuable to his team. If Cabrera were on the Angels, they would have been a playoff team. If he wasn't on the Tigers, they wouldn't have been.
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It's a joke that Cabrera won.
Cabrera was just a little bit better hitter than Trout (admittedly the most important phase)
Trout is a better baserunner and it's not even close.
Trout is a better defender and it's not even close.
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I don't know about that - the Angels had the highest team batting average in the American League for August and September, so either they were crushing the ball or the pitching that they were facing wasn't that great.
Ironically, the teams the Angels played in September
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Halos record 8-1
In August, a steady diet of Indians, Tigers, White Sox, Red Sox. That also helps the batting average.
For me, it was pretty simple.
Trout played one month less than Cabrera and put up numbers that no one in the history of baseball had ever done. NO ONE. He played exceptional defense, exceptional base running and finished as the 2nd best hitter. The Halos were dead in the water when he got there, 6-14..worst record in their history. They played in the toughest division in baseball, finished with a better record than the Tigers, had to face MUCH better pitching, plays in a pitchers ballpark, etc.
Cabrera...fantastic hitter, best in the game. Not a great defensive player, not a threat at all on the bases, faced easier pitching staffs, played in a horrible division, etc. But, they made the playoffs and he won the triple crown.
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You can break it down anyway you want, the problem will be Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Even though the Triple Corwn may be antiquated, the BBWAA was not going to give it Trout as soon as that happened.
I thought Trout should have won it.
However, I am awfully suspicious of him and some of the BBWAA were as well.
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The award is Most Valuable Player, as in the most valuable to his team.
Detroit won their division. Replace Cabrera with an average 3B and they miss the playoffs.
LAofA finished 3rd in their division. Replace Trout with an average CF and they finish 3rd in their division.
Cabrera was the MVP without a doubt.
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How is the Triple Crown antiquated? He had the best BA, most RBI, and most HR in the league. He was the most productive offensive player in the league, which is who typically gets the award.
Trout is much better on D, but you know what, Ozzie Smith never won an MVP. Brooks Robinson won 1 MVP, in a great offensive season. Defense has never been a major factor in deciding the MVP, not nearly the factor that offense is, not saying it is right, just historical.
As for the baserunning, if you add all Trout's steals into his total bases, he still comes up short of what Cabrera did.
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How is the Triple Crown antiquated? He had the best BA, most RBI, and most HR in the league. He was the most productive offensive player in the league, which is who typically gets the award.
Trout is much better on D, but you know what, Ozzie Smith never won an MVP. Brooks Robinson won 1 MVP, in a great offensive season. Defense has never been a major factor in deciding the MVP, not nearly the factor that offense is, not saying it is right, just historical.
As for the baserunning, if you add all Trout's steals into his total bases, he still comes up short of what Cabrera did.
RBIs are not a good judgment of offensive production and AVG is the antiquated version of OBP or OPS.
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The award is Most Valuable Player, as in the most valuable to his team.
That's not what it means. It means who has the best season. I have never quite understood all the word-smithing over "most valuable." It means who has the best season. Always has.
How is the Triple Crown antiquated? He had the best BA, most RBI, and most HR in the league. He was the most productive offensive player in the league, which is who typically gets the award.
Because people will argue that BA isn't as important as OPS. (Which Cabrera won anyway.) And RBIs are too dependent on who is in front of you.
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That's not what it means. It means who has the best season. I have never quite understood all the word-smithing over "most valuable." It means who has the best season. Always has.
To me, most valuable means most valuable. That's the problem. There's no true definition as to what people are voting for. Some people vote for the best player, some vote for best player on the best team, some vote for most valuable. If the award always went to the guy who had the best season, there would be alot more players from non-contenders with MVP awards.
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That's not what it means. It means who has the best season. I have never quite understood all the word-smithing over "most valuable." It means who has the best season. Always has.
Then Ryan Braun would have won the NL MVP and it wouldn't have even been close.
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Then Ryan Braun would have won the NL MVP and it wouldn't have even been close.
Agree and Matt Kemp would have won in 2011.
Everyone realizes that Braun will have to have a Triple Crown season where he is head and shoulders above the competition before he wins another MVP, right?
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Agree and Matt Kemp would have won in 2011.
Everyone realizes that Braun will have to have a Triple Crown season where he is head and shoulders above the competition before he wins another MVP, right?
Exactly. Switch Braun with Cabrera and Mike Trout is your AL MVP this season.
OK, not the best analogy but you know what I mean.
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You can break it down anyway you want, the problem will be Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Even though the Triple Corwn may be antiquated, the BBWAA was not going to give it Trout as soon as that happened.
I thought Trout should have won it.
However, I am awfully suspicious of him and some of the BBWAA were as well.
Suspicion is out there for a lot of guys, including Cabrera, Pujols, Braun, etc. You can't be good anymore without the antenna going up which is sad in many ways, but totally understandable. The previous era has tainted a lot of things. The ridiculous testing methods of MLB don't help bring any confidence either.
We agree.
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RBIs are not a good judgment of offensive production and AVG is the antiquated version of OBP or OPS.
I love when people say that. Historically speaking, it just isn't true. RBIs are a good judge of offensive production. It is also typically accompanied by someone championing the merits of some bogus stat like park adjusted OPS.
The guys that get RBIs are typically hitting in a particular spot in the order. The reason they are there, is because they are the best hitters. They also typically hit for power and extra base hits and thrive with runners on base.
For example Cabrera hit .356 with RISP, he had an OBP of .424 and slugged .580.
Compared with Trout's line of .324/.393/.559
Cabrera was better across the board with runners on base.
Cabrera also led Trout in SLG% and OPS. Trout had a very slim lead in OBP.
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I love when people say that. Historically speaking, it just isn't true. RBIs are a good judge of offensive production. It is also typically accompanied by someone championing the merits of some bogus stat like park adjusted OPS.
The guys that get RBIs are typically hitting in a particular spot in the order. The reason they are there, is because they are the best hitters. They also typically hit for power and extra base hits and thrive with runners on base.
For example Cabrera hit .356 with RISP, he had an OBP of .424 and slugged .580.
Compared with Trout's line of .324/.393/.559
Cabrera was better across the board with runners on base.
Cabrera also led Trout in SLG% and OPS. Trout had a very slim lead in OBP.
I love when people say RBIs are a great indicator of offensive production and then have to justify their significance with other stats.
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The other stats are there to prove that the RBIs aren't a fluke.
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The other stats are there to prove that the RBIs aren't a fluke.
Yeah, but they are independent to a hitter's production.
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I love when people say that. Historically speaking, it just isn't true. RBIs are a good judge of offensive production. It is also typically accompanied by someone championing the merits of some bogus stat like park adjusted OPS.
The guys that get RBIs are typically hitting in a particular spot in the order. The reason they are there, is because they are the best hitters. They also typically hit for power and extra base hits and thrive with runners on base.
For example Cabrera hit .356 with RISP, he had an OBP of .424 and slugged .580.
Compared with Trout's line of .324/.393/.559
Cabrera was better across the board with runners on base.
Cabrera also led Trout in SLG% and OPS. Trout had a very slim lead in OBP.
At the same time, you don't put Trout in the 3 spot when he can run like he does. As such, his RBI opportunities are going to be far less for two reasons. First, his first at bat no one is on ahead of him = less RBI. Second, in subsequent at bats he follows the 7, 8 , 9 hitters = less RBI potential.
Putting Trout at the 3 spot would take away a tremendous amount of run producing opportunities for the rest of the team because of OBP and what he does when he's already on base...stealing bases, going from 1st to 3rd, stretching singles into doubles.
But again, I thought MVP was more about just hitting but the argument for keeps coming back to one thing...hitting. It's as if he was DH that wouldn't hurt him at all because the other stuff apparently doesn't count.
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At the same time, you don't put Trout in the 3 spot when he can run like he does. As such, his RBI opportunities are going to be far less for two reasons. First, his first at bat no one is on ahead of him = less RBI. Second, in subsequent at bats he follows the 7, 8 , 9 hitters = less RBI potential.
Putting Trout at the 3 spot would take away a tremendous amount of run producing opportunities for the rest of the team because of OBP and what he does when he's already on base...stealing bases, going from 1st to 3rd, stretching singles into doubles.
But again, I thought MVP was more about just hitting but the argument for keeps coming back to one thing...hitting. It's as if he was DH that wouldn't hurt him at all because the other stuff apparently doesn't count.
Obviously he had less RBI opportunities, that is certainly true. That is when the ratio stats come in handy. In their opportunities with runners in scoring position, and with men on base, Cabrera had a higher BA, OBP, and SLG. So it isn't just that he had more opportunities. He was better when he had the opportunities.
And just because a guy can run doesn't mean he shouldn't hit in the middle of the order. See Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Barry (and Bobby) Bonds, Jose Canseco, Jeff Bagwell, Vlad, Beltran, David Wright, and a whole bunch of other guys.
He didn't hit in the middle of the order because they had other more proven guys to hit there. More accurately, there were guys being paid a crap load to hit in those spots.
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The year that Ted Williams won the triple crown but finished second (by one point) to DiMaggio, one of the NY beat writers failed to put Williams in his top 10, as he thought Ted was a jerk.
Ted Williams won the triple crown TWICE and didn't win the MVP either time. He also didn't win the MVP the year he hit .406, despite leading the league in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, R, HR and BB. In both his triple crown years he also led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ (not that anyone knew what OPS or OPS+ was), TB, BB and R.
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http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121129&content_id=40462424&vkey=pr_chc&c_id=chc
a 25 year old director of operations? 25?! f***! i'm 28. what am i doing with my life?
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http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121129&content_id=40462424&vkey=pr_chc&c_id=chc
a 25 year old director of operations? 25?! f***! i'm 28. what am i doing with my life?
The only job in MLB that's worse than any job with the Cubs is Season Ticket Sales Rep for the Marlins.
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http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121129&content_id=40462424&vkey=pr_chc&c_id=chc
a 25 year old director of operations? 25?! f***! i'm 28. what am i doing with my life?
You're more than likely more qualified than this guy is for the job.
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http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121129&content_id=40462424&vkey=pr_chc&c_id=chc
a 25 year old director of operations? 25?! f***! i'm 28. what am i doing with my life?
I assume he's related to Crane Kenney.
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You think he's getting Howard or Fielder money?
It ain't happening without team friendly opt-outs when it comes to substances and injuries.
Wow I couldn't have been more wrong.
Hamilton gets $125m for 5 years.
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Wow I couldn't have been more wrong.
Hamilton gets $125m for 5 years.
You and me both...I'm in shock and I follow the Halos very closely. Absolutely shocked. Not sure I like the deal. Another outfielder, we have no pitching other than Weaver, we play in a pitcher's ballpark where power hitters come to die. Interesting times. The only thing I can think of is the Doyers nonsense down the road with their $6 billion tv deal has Arte feeling nervous so he wants to make sure the Halos are still a topic of conversation. That's the only thing I can think of at this point.
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You and me both...I'm in shock and I follow the Halos very closely. Absolutely shocked. Not sure I like the deal. Another outfielder, we have no pitching other than Weaver, we play in a pitcher's ballpark where power hitters come to die. Interesting times. The only thing I can think of is the Doyers nonsense down the road with their $6 billion tv deal has Arte feeling nervous so he wants to make sure the Halos are still a topic of conversation. That's the only thing I can think of at this point.
I still think they get Dickey as well, which is okay, right? I just fail to get excited about him.
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Looks like $25M for 5 for Hamilton.
Wasn't there a debate about this earlier this summer?
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You and me both...I'm in shock and I follow the Halos very closely. Absolutely shocked. Not sure I like the deal. Another outfielder, we have no pitching other than Weaver, we play in a pitcher's ballpark where power hitters come to die. Interesting times. The only thing I can think of is the Doyers nonsense down the road with their $6 billion tv deal has Arte feeling nervous so he wants to make sure the Halos are still a topic of conversation. That's the only thing I can think of at this point.
Still think the Angels only invest in homegrown talent?
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I still think they get Dickey as well, which is okay, right? I just fail to get excited about him.
Dickey does not excite me. ;D
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Still think the Angels only invest in homegrown talent?
Did I say that or did I say most of their talent was homegrown...which at the time it was.
Even looking at this team
Weaver...All Star...home grown
Richards...starting pitcher...home grown
Trumbo..All Star...home grown
Trout...All Star...home grown
Kendrick..2B...home grown
Aybar...SS...home grown
Bourjos...OF...home grown...of course now he or Trumbo aren't going to start so who knows.
Morales...DH...home grown
Unfortunately we got rid of Napoli, Lackey, Santana in the past few seasons or it would be even more so.
In the past it was even more so, but when half your team of starters are home grown that isn't too shabby. At one point a few years ago 7 of the 9 players out there were home grown.
That's one of the reasons I don't like some of these free agency moves. Our best players over time have always been home grown.
Molina, Joyner, Trout, Morales, Finley, Percival, Glaus, Remy, Salmon, Edmonds, Erstad, Witt, Tanana, Shields, etc.
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Wow I couldn't have been more wrong.
Hamilton gets $125m for 5 years.
Told you ;)
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Told you ;)
You sir were correct. Hats off.
Everyone wins in a LA arms race!
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You sir were correct. Hats off.
Everyone wins in a LA arms race!
It has to turn out better for the baseball teams than it did for the Lakers, right?
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It has to turn out better for the baseball teams than it did for the Lakers, right?
I'm loving the Lakers implosion with every game, but I wouldn't be surprised if they don't make a turnaround as well.
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Anibal Sanchez stays with the Tigers. Top 4 in the rotation will be Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Sanchez. If they stay healthy, they will be very good.
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Does that seem like preposterous money for Sanchez? Yikes.
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It is ridiculous money for everybody. The Dodgers overpaid for Greinke and set the bar for this year's class of pitchers. Can you imagine what Verlander gets when he becomes a free agent after '14?
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There's not a lot of quality pitching out there, especially in free agency. Sanchez is only 28, has a career ERA of 3.75, has good control, keeps the ball in the ballpark and has averaged 196 IP the last 3 seasons. In today's market, that's worth $15M/season.
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I want to see the Tigers package Porcello, Peralta, and Boesch for a shortstop with range. I don't care if the guy is a .240 hitter.
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I want to see the Tigers package Porcello, Peralta, and Boesch for a shortstop with range. I don't care if the guy is a .240 hitter.
would they have any interest in Trumbo? seems to be some sort of match between the two teams that just spent huge with the Angels needing to fill in their rotation.
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would they have any interest in Trumbo? seems to be some sort of match between the two teams that just spent huge with the Angels needing to fill in their rotation.
No interest in giving up Trumbo. Bourjes yes, not Trumbo. I think a deal with the Mets is in the works which doesn't make me happy, but one of our outfielders is going. Trumbo has a hole in his swing but when he is on he is really on. Peter is an insane outfielder, arguably one of the 3 best defensively there is. Great speed, but light on the stick.
Last thing I want to do is give Trumbo to a team that has Miggy and Fielder.
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No interest in giving up Trumbo. Bourjes yes, not Trumbo. I think a deal with the Mets is in the works which doesn't make me happy, but one of our outfielders is going. Trumbo has a hole in his swing but when he is on he is really on. Peter is an insane outfielder, arguably one of the 3 best defensively there is. Great speed, but light on the stick.
Last thing I want to do is give Trumbo to a team that has Miggy and Fielder.
sounds fair from my end. I kind of started from a Angels-Tigers match up well w/ Porcello thing, and with Bourjos and Austin Jackson repetitive got to Trumbo.
As for a trade with the Mets, I think Niese would be a great get - and with the Angels offensive surplus, a deal could get done. He would be a great mid rotation starter. I wouldn't want any part of what the Mets are demanding for Dickey though. I think he'll really drop off this year, and I don't believe he has any type of staying power. HOWEVER I would be more likely to trade for him if he signed that 2 yr $26M extension the Mets have been balking at. While I don't think he'll be great again, thats a pretty risk-free deal to make on the off chance he stays something remotely close to 2012 R.A. Dickey. So I have kind of a boom or bust outlook on him.
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Unfortunately we got rid of Napoli, Lackey, Santana in the past few seasons or it would be even more so.
How is losing any of those guys unfortunate actually?
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How is losing any of those guys unfortunate actually?
I've always liked how during the time I worked there and under Mike's lead we have been a home grown talent team with a few players from the Free Agent market. Of late, that has changed which I'm not wild about. It's certainly exciting, but I enjoy seeing guys in Arizona in the minors come up and make the big club.
I would have liked to have had Naps' bat the last few years, especially how he has destroyed us. Ervin has always been a headcase, Lackey a strong pitbull...though his talents were coming to an end.
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Dickey traded to the Blue Jays, signs 2 year $25 million extension. Just in this offseason the Jays have added Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and now Dickey to their rotation as well as Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera. Looks like they're sick of sitting in the AL East cellar and are going all in.
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A little off-topic, but a fun MLB read-
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121214&content_id=40650956&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
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Dickey traded to the Blue Jays, signs 2 year $25 million extension. Just in this offseason the Jays have added Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and now Dickey to their rotation as well as Jose Reyes. Looks like they're sick of sitting in the AL East cellar and are going all in.
I'm cool with going all in and maybe even giving up too much in prospects to do so, but I don't like this trade for Toronto. Dickey could get absolutely shelled up I. That hitters park, and is moving from nl to al east besides. With that rotation I'm surprise they didn't go harder at shields. Dickey is a huge question mark, and I think you need more certainty when you go all in like this. Could have undone a lot of the benefits garners through the Miami trade.