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Author Topic: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/11/19  (Read 289558 times)

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1075 on: December 03, 2018, 04:14:33 PM »
Zags win against Duke is probably the best win in college basketball so far. So by your logic are you saying that the fact that Michigan beat Purdue by 19 and UNC by 17 that you're convinced they would beat both Duke and Gonzaga? Wins > Winning margin at the end of the day IMO.

Duke looks really overwhelming, but I'm not convinced they are as good as people think. I do think Michigan would beat them. Duke blasted a Kentucky team that frankly hasn't looked that impressive since then against a litany of cupcakes. They slipped by a good but probably not great Auburn team and their wins over San Diego State and Indiana don't impress me as much as any of Michigan's big wins. Zion is a freak of nature and they have great talent, but I'm just not convinced they are a great team, and I'm not sure they will be until they figure out that Tre Jones is by far their most important player.

As far as Gonzaga, again it's simply how impressive they've looked. The Duke win is great and all, but they needed to rally after being down big in the second half against Arizona, struggled to beat Illinois, and had to rally late to come from behind at Creighton. I have no doubt they are good, but they have been far from dominant.

Michigan has been dominant every time out. They trailed once in a second half. They haven't trailed after the under-16 timeout in any game and Pomeroy hasn't had them at less than 85% to win any game after the under-16. They didn't need to rally late, they didn't need to hold off any comeback attempts like Gonzaga and Duke have. And they absolutely suffocate you. They build a massive lead every time out, then bleed the clock on both ends of the floor.

Anything can happen in a one-off, but I think in a seven-game series Michigan would beat Duke or Gonzaga. They are better coached, more disciplined, and far better on defense. They're the best team I've seen this year.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1076 on: December 03, 2018, 04:18:25 PM »
Duke looks really overwhelming, but I'm not convinced they are as good as people think. I do think Michigan would beat them. Duke blasted a Kentucky team that frankly hasn't looked that impressive since then against a litany of cupcakes. They slipped by a good but probably not great Auburn team and their wins over San Diego State and Indiana don't impress me as much as any of Michigan's big wins. Zion is a freak of nature and they have great talent, but I'm just not convinced they are a great team, and I'm not sure they will be until they figure out that Tre Jones is by far their most important player.

As far as Gonzaga, again it's simply how impressive they've looked. The Duke win is great and all, but they needed to rally after being down big in the second half against Arizona, struggled to beat Illinois, and had to rally late to come from behind at Creighton. I have no doubt they are good, but they have been far from dominant.

Michigan has been dominant every time out. They trailed once in a second half. They haven't trailed after the under-16 timeout in any game and Pomeroy hasn't had them at less than 85% to win any game after the under-16. They didn't need to rally late, they didn't need to hold off any comeback attempts like Gonzaga and Duke have. And they absolutely suffocate you. They build a massive lead every time out, then bleed the clock on both ends of the floor.

Anything can happen in a one-off, but I think in a seven-game series Michigan would beat Duke or Gonzaga. They are better coached, more disciplined, and far better on defense. They're the best team I've seen this year.

Speaking of unimpressive

Purdue
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

MUBigDance

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1077 on: December 03, 2018, 04:28:27 PM »
Duke, Michigan are both in my 1-seeds and as we have seen, both are great. Wouldn't that be a great final?!

other 1's are Gonzaga and a team to be named later...maybe Virginia. Zags have a nicer road to navigate. But a think a cut below Duke and Michigan.

Kansas is good but not impressive...I see them getting knocked down to a 2 or even 3.

Lazar's Headband

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1078 on: December 03, 2018, 05:37:49 PM »
Duke, Michigan are both in my 1-seeds and as we have seen, both are great. Wouldn't that be a great final?!

other 1's are Gonzaga and a team to be named later...maybe Virginia. Zags have a nicer road to navigate. But a think a cut below Duke and Michigan.

Kansas is good but not impressive...I see them getting knocked down to a 2 or even 3.

Duke, Gonzaga,  Michigan,  Kansas, and Nevada look like the clear top 5 this year.  Tennessee not far behind,  but I don't think the Vols have upside of the others.

MU82

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1079 on: December 03, 2018, 06:52:10 PM »
Duke, Gonzaga,  Michigan,  Kansas, and Nevada look like the clear top 5 this year.  Tennessee not far behind,  but I don't think the Vols have upside of the others.

So ... Marquette at NO. 7 then? Nice!
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1080 on: December 03, 2018, 07:15:03 PM »
Duke, Gonzaga,  Michigan,  Kansas, and Nevada look like the clear top 5 this year.  Tennessee not far behind,  but I don't think the Vols have upside of the others.

Tennessee is really good too. If Schofield plays even a halfway decent game they beat Kansas.

Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

MuMark

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1081 on: December 03, 2018, 07:20:32 PM »
Virginia looks pretty good too........Duke clearly the most talented and with the highest upside.

GarciasWorld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1082 on: December 03, 2018, 10:41:42 PM »
And they beat a bad Illinois team by 6. Gonzaga is good, but they have not been as impressive as Michigan so far. It's just a hard sell when the Zags' most decisive significant win (Arizona) is an equal margin to Michigan's least impressive win over UNC.

Again, you're focusing way too much on margin of victory.  UNC, Purdue, and Iowa all lose to Duke by about 25 at this point in the season.  Gonzaga beat them by 2 on a neutral while controlling all but about a 4 minute spurt that got Duke in striking distance, and all without their 2nd best player.

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1083 on: December 04, 2018, 12:27:10 AM »
Again, you're focusing way too much on margin of victory.  UNC, Purdue, and Iowa all lose to Duke by about 25 at this point in the season.  Gonzaga beat them by 2 on a neutral while controlling all but about a 4 minute spurt that got Duke in striking distance, and all without their 2nd best player.

This is pure speculation. I'm talking about facts. On the court, on the resume, Michigan has been the unquestionably better team. And margin of victory is one of the best predictors of team quality and future results.

https://kenpom.com/blog/evidence-that-scoring-margin-matters/


GarciasWorld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1084 on: December 04, 2018, 06:38:50 AM »
This is pure speculation. I'm talking about facts. On the court, on the resume, Michigan has been the unquestionably better team. And margin of victory is one of the best predictors of team quality and future results.

https://kenpom.com/blog/evidence-that-scoring-margin-matters/

Unquestionably? Lol. It simply isn’t. They haven’t beat anyone close to a Duke or a Tennessee. Not even close. They beat a team that lost by 30 to Michigan State (who lost to the team we should’ve beat comfortably, I guess), a team that lost at home to Furman and dang near lost to 0-8 LaSalle, and a team that has one good win.

Galway Eagle

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1085 on: December 04, 2018, 06:53:56 AM »
Isn't the general rule that the transitive property doesn't work in basketball?
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Lazar's Headband

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1086 on: December 04, 2018, 07:23:22 AM »
Unquestionably? Lol. It simply isn’t. They haven’t beat anyone close to a Duke or a Tennessee. Not even close. They beat a team that lost by 30 to Michigan State (who lost to the team we should’ve beat comfortably, I guess), a team that lost at home to Furman and dang near lost to 0-8 LaSalle, and a team that has one good win.

Plus, Michigan beat UNC, who lost to Texas, who lost at home to Radford.

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1087 on: December 04, 2018, 07:30:04 AM »
Isn't the general rule that the transitive property doesn't work in basketball?

It is, but apparently this is the hill wades is willing to die on. And if we're going by the "X beat Y beat Z" arguments then we're so far down the rabbit hole we aren't paying attention to actual results.

The body of work and resume favors Michigan, especially when you consider the way in which they created that body of work. They didn't just win games, they curbstomped everyone they played.

Bocephys

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1088 on: December 04, 2018, 07:31:37 AM »
Plus, Michigan beat UNC, who lost to Texas, who lost at home to Radford.

Which means Wojo probably can't even beat Radford, which is why we should fire Wojo!

Lazar's Headband

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1089 on: December 04, 2018, 08:37:28 AM »
It is, but apparently this is the hill wades is willing to die on. And if we're going by the "X beat Y beat Z" arguments then we're so far down the rabbit hole we aren't paying attention to actual results.

The body of work and resume favors Michigan, especially when you consider the way in which they created that body of work. They didn't just win games, they curbstomped everyone they played.

I think you're the one who chose the hill to die on.  Anyone that disagrees with your opinion of Michigan is wrong because you're convinced you're criteria is right.

Michigan is very, very good.   But there is room at the table for other opinions,  including ones that think other teams are better than Michigan.

GarciasWorld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1090 on: December 04, 2018, 09:27:13 AM »
It is, but apparently this is the hill wades is willing to die on. And if we're going by the "X beat Y beat Z" arguments then we're so far down the rabbit hole we aren't paying attention to actual results.

The body of work and resume favors Michigan, especially when you consider the way in which they created that body of work. They didn't just win games, they curbstomped everyone they played.

It appears you're the only one dying on a hill.  Basically everyone that hasn't dug into a hot take realizes that Texas is a bubble team, UNC will wind up being solid but really hasn't impressed at all early this season, and Purdue isn't even an NIT team.  It has nothing to do with transitive property and everything to do with none of their wins being very good.  You try to downplay a win against Duke/how good Duke is but then talk up a blowout over Purdue...someone everyone is blowing out.  It's laughable.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2018, 09:28:58 AM by wadesworld »

Its DJOver

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1091 on: December 04, 2018, 09:34:35 AM »
Lets all keep in mind that rankings really mean nothing until about early-to-mid January.  At this point last year, Minnesota (a team that had no postseason play) was ranked higher than Virginia (the number one overall seed).  Some people seem to have a lot invested in non MU teams.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1092 on: December 04, 2018, 09:57:06 AM »
At this point Duke neutral/Zona neutral/Creighton away is a better 3 collection of wins than Nova away/Purdue home/Unc home.

Michigan won their games by more pts.

But the zags wins right now have more weight
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1093 on: December 04, 2018, 10:16:53 AM »
You try to downplay a win against Duke/how good Duke is but then talk up a blowout over Purdue...someone everyone is blowing out.  It's laughable.

I'm going to go ahead and accept this as evidence you don't really pay attention to college basketball that much, because only one team has blown out Purdue.

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1094 on: December 04, 2018, 10:32:31 AM »
At this point Duke neutral/Zona neutral/Creighton away is a better 3 collection of wins than Nova away/Purdue home/Unc home.

Michigan won their games by more pts.

But the zags wins right now have more weight

Debatable, and I would say it isn't. Most any metric would disagree with that take as well. The NET gives Michigan 3 top-35 wins. kenpom.com gives Michigan 3 top-18 wins. Sagarin has them with 3 top-23 wins. The only metric in which Michigan's third best win is better than Gonzaga's second best win is Sagarin (Arizona 22, Villanova 23).

And again, I would point to the fashion of the wins. Michigan has destroyed everyone they've played. No one else has come close to doing that except Nevada, but their best win (@USC by 12) pales in comparison to Michigan's three best by a mile.

The only defensible position is not dropping teams because they didn't lose. That's the entire argument.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1095 on: December 04, 2018, 10:50:53 AM »
There's another argument. Fair or not, at the beginning of the season Michigan was projected to be a back of the top 25ish team by most. Kansas was projected to be #1 or #2 and Gonzaga was projected to be top 10. These conclusions were made based on the roster each team had. What they lost, who they gained, etc.

In the first week of December, I have no issue with someone who says the sample size is still too small. I think its reasonable for someone to believe that Gonzaga/Kansas have underachieved so far and Michigan has overachieved. The more games we play, the less valid that argument becomes. But it's only December, we're not a third of the way through the season yet. Michigan has certainly looked like the #1 team in the nation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them regress towards the mean either. I have the same thoughts about Bucky. What they've done so far has earned them a top 15 ranking....but I don't think they are a top 15 team.
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1096 on: December 04, 2018, 11:12:05 AM »
Debatable, and I would say it isn't. Most any metric would disagree with that take as well. The NET gives Michigan 3 top-35 wins. kenpom.com gives Michigan 3 top-18 wins. Sagarin has them with 3 top-23 wins. The only metric in which Michigan's third best win is better than Gonzaga's second best win is Sagarin (Arizona 22, Villanova 23).

And again, I would point to the fashion of the wins. Michigan has destroyed everyone they've played. No one else has come close to doing that except Nevada, but their best win (@USC by 12) pales in comparison to Michigan's three best by a mile.

The only defensible position is not dropping teams because they didn't lose. That's the entire argument.

No it’s very debatable. You’re using flawed early season ratings like NET while everything is getting sorted out.

Arizona has beaten ISU and a road win at uconn. No need to throw a parade but that beats the living fu ck out of anything Purdue has accomplished. Nova has yet to look impressive than Creighton. And Duke blows away unc.

Can Purdue win a quality game before before call them a quality team?? Seriously. They might be good, but if you’re gonna point to who Michigan has beaten...don’t conveniently stop at what Purdue has done to be a good win.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

PGsHeroes32

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1097 on: December 04, 2018, 11:15:07 AM »
Debatable, and I would say it isn't. Most any metric would disagree with that take as well. The NET gives Michigan 3 top-35 wins. kenpom.com gives Michigan 3 top-18 wins. Sagarin has them with 3 top-23 wins. The only metric in which Michigan's third best win is better than Gonzaga's second best win is Sagarin (Arizona 22, Villanova 23).

And again, I would point to the fashion of the wins. Michigan has destroyed everyone they've played. No one else has come close to doing that except Nevada, but their best win (@USC by 12) pales in comparison to Michigan's three best by a mile.

The only defensible position is not dropping teams because they didn't lose. That's the entire argument.

NET has Zona ahead of both Purdue and Nova btw and closer to UNC than Purdue is to Zona.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

TAMU Eagle

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/10/18
« Reply #1098 on: December 04, 2018, 10:36:36 PM »
Michigan barely beats a mediocre Northwestern team. So that means they suck now right?  ;D
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PTM

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/10/18
« Reply #1099 on: December 04, 2018, 11:23:44 PM »
Michigan barely beats a mediocre Northwestern team. So that means they suck now right?  ;D

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