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Author Topic: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 10/11/19  (Read 279844 times)

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1050 on: December 03, 2018, 11:48:44 AM »
First of all, Furman being in is a complete and utter joke. Yes, they beat Villanova, but that alone shouldn't put them in. They needed overtime to beat sub-200 Gardner-Webb at home. They needed double-overtime to beat sub-300 Western Carolina at home this past Saturday. If results matter, then their most recent result should matter. Being the equal of a sub-300 team for 45+ minutes does not warrant being in the top-25. Voters just saw they didn't lose and moved them up their ballots.

Second, Michigan doesn't have a single #1 vote. That means 64 AP voters are doing it wrong. Few teams have better wins than Michigan's wins over North Carolina, Villanova, and Purdue. No team has wins of that caliber by 17+ points in each game. No one else has been closer than 17 points either. Michigan is decimating everyone they play. There is no logical rationale for putting Gonzaga, who has 2 single-digit wins including a bad Illinois team, Duke, who has a loss and 1 single-digit win, Kansas, who needed overtime twice and has 4 single-digit wins, or Virginia, who has 3 single-digit wins, ahead of Michigan. Even the pace of play argument doesn't hold up because while Virginia plays slow, Michigan is 327th in the country in pace, so they are destroying teams while playing at a Virginia-like pace.

Third, where did LSU go? They had 41 votes last week and were 5 out of being ranked. Since they, they beat Grambling at home by 21. Not anything special, but they seemingly lost all their votes. They are not ranked and not listed on NCAA.com as having any votes.

Finally, we're where I expected us to be, though we have a pretty good case to be in right now. Our two best wins are better than almost anyone who's ranked 13th or worse. Villanova & Arizona State have comparable wins, but the wins over Louisville and K-State are better than what Texas Tech, UNC, Virginia Tech, K-State, Buffalo, Iowa, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Maryland, Nebraska, or Furman have on their resumes. We do have two losses, but our losses are better than the two losses UNC & Villanova have, and Virginia Tech, K-State, and Mississippi State all have losses that are worse than our worst loss.

It'll all sort itself out. If we win two this week, we will be ranked by this time next week.

MU82

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1051 on: December 03, 2018, 12:03:16 PM »
We have the opportunity to beat two 12's in a row. And maybe even 3 if Buffalo makes the jump after the rodents fall!  We might have a new lucky number...Matt Heldt is fixen it up with the #12

Love this comment, LM!

Beat F%cky, and we are comfortably in the rankings next week, probably top 20.

We got this!
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1052 on: December 03, 2018, 12:04:48 PM »
Go 2-0 and we will be ranked

Purdue still getting 100 votes?? Sure they have 3 top 25 losses.

But they also are 5-3 with 5 wins vs cupcakes
Edit. Davidson isn’t a cupcake but also not a resume builder
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

wadesworld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1053 on: December 03, 2018, 12:06:43 PM »
First of all, Furman being in is a complete and utter joke. Yes, they beat Villanova, but that alone shouldn't put them in. They needed overtime to beat sub-200 Gardner-Webb at home. They needed double-overtime to beat sub-300 Western Carolina at home this past Saturday. If results matter, then their most recent result should matter. Being the equal of a sub-300 team for 45+ minutes does not warrant being in the top-25. Voters just saw they didn't lose and moved them up their ballots.

Second, Michigan doesn't have a single #1 vote. That means 64 AP voters are doing it wrong. Few teams have better wins than Michigan's wins over North Carolina, Villanova, and Purdue. No team has wins of that caliber by 17+ points in each game. No one else has been closer than 17 points either. Michigan is decimating everyone they play. There is no logical rationale for putting Gonzaga, who has 2 single-digit wins including a bad Illinois team, Duke, who has a loss and 1 single-digit win, Kansas, who needed overtime twice and has 4 single-digit wins, or Virginia, who has 3 single-digit wins, ahead of Michigan. Even the pace of play argument doesn't hold up because while Virginia plays slow, Michigan is 327th in the country in pace, so they are destroying teams while playing at a Virginia-like pace.

Third, where did LSU go? They had 41 votes last week and were 5 out of being ranked. Since they, they beat Grambling at home by 21. Not anything special, but they seemingly lost all their votes. They are not ranked and not listed on NCAA.com as having any votes.

Finally, we're where I expected us to be, though we have a pretty good case to be in right now. Our two best wins are better than almost anyone who's ranked 13th or worse. Villanova & Arizona State have comparable wins, but the wins over Louisville and K-State are better than what Texas Tech, UNC, Virginia Tech, K-State, Buffalo, Iowa, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Maryland, Nebraska, or Furman have on their resumes. We do have two losses, but our losses are better than the two losses UNC & Villanova have, and Virginia Tech, K-State, and Mississippi State all have losses that are worse than our worst loss.

It'll all sort itself out. If we win two this week, we will be ranked by this time next week.

You are putting far too much stock into margin of victory. Those 3 wins for Michigan are nice no doubt. But those 3 teams are also very overrated. They aren’t close to a Duke or even a Wisconsin at this point.

LoudMouth

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1054 on: December 03, 2018, 12:20:58 PM »
I can't speak for the rest of this but LSU lost to OKST on Sunday and most AP voters have their ballots completed before the Sunday games
Down 5 with 1 second left, doable

Lazar's Headband

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1055 on: December 03, 2018, 12:26:59 PM »
First of all, Furman being in is a complete and utter joke. Yes, they beat Villanova, but that alone shouldn't put them in. They needed overtime to beat sub-200 Gardner-Webb at home. They needed double-overtime to beat sub-300 Western Carolina at home this past Saturday. If results matter, then their most recent result should matter. Being the equal of a sub-300 team for 45+ minutes does not warrant being in the top-25. Voters just saw they didn't lose and moved them up their ballots.

Second, Michigan doesn't have a single #1 vote. That means 64 AP voters are doing it wrong. Few teams have better wins than Michigan's wins over North Carolina, Villanova, and Purdue. No team has wins of that caliber by 17+ points in each game. No one else has been closer than 17 points either. Michigan is decimating everyone they play. There is no logical rationale for putting Gonzaga, who has 2 single-digit wins including a bad Illinois team, Duke, who has a loss and 1 single-digit win, Kansas, who needed overtime twice and has 4 single-digit wins, or Virginia, who has 3 single-digit wins, ahead of Michigan. Even the pace of play argument doesn't hold up because while Virginia plays slow, Michigan is 327th in the country in pace, so they are destroying teams while playing at a Virginia-like pace.

Third, where did LSU go? They had 41 votes last week and were 5 out of being ranked. Since they, they beat Grambling at home by 21. Not anything special, but they seemingly lost all their votes. They are not ranked and not listed on NCAA.com as having any votes.

Finally, we're where I expected us to be, though we have a pretty good case to be in right now. Our two best wins are better than almost anyone who's ranked 13th or worse. Villanova & Arizona State have comparable wins, but the wins over Louisville and K-State are better than what Texas Tech, UNC, Virginia Tech, K-State, Buffalo, Iowa, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Maryland, Nebraska, or Furman have on their resumes. We do have two losses, but our losses are better than the two losses UNC & Villanova have, and Virginia Tech, K-State, and Mississippi State all have losses that are worse than our worst loss.

It'll all sort itself out. If we win two this week, we will be ranked by this time next week.

You're putting way more thought into this than the voters.  A quick scan of results, tweak last week's ballot, submit. That's the process.

Don't put too much stock in the value of the poll.

GGGG

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1056 on: December 03, 2018, 12:33:13 PM »
You're putting way more thought into this than the voters.  A quick scan of results, tweak last week's ballot, submit. That's the process.

Don't put too much stock in the value of the poll.


Especially in early December.  It will normalize as more people pay attention.

UWW2MU

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1057 on: December 03, 2018, 01:10:41 PM »
Surprised Ben Steele didn't have us on his ballot.  Is he usually harder on the local teams?  Even that other team in our state is lower seeded than most other ballots.

https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll-voter/ben-steele

Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1058 on: December 03, 2018, 01:28:54 PM »
You are putting far too much stock into margin of victory. Those 3 wins for Michigan are nice no doubt. But those 3 teams are also very overrated. They aren’t close to a Duke or even a Wisconsin at this point.

?? Strange comment. Michigan is clearly better than UW right now and would be a 1 seed if the season ended today

wadesworld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1059 on: December 03, 2018, 01:37:54 PM »
?? Strange comment. Michigan is clearly better than UW right now and would be a 1 seed if the season ended today

Yes. Michigan is better than UW. But UNC, Purdue, and Nova are not. At least not right now. Those are the best wins of teams like Gonzaga and UVA, who started higher in the polls than Michigan did and has at least 1 win that is better than Michigan’s best, by a pretty decent margin.

I’d put Kansas, UVA, and Gonzaga over Michigan for sure and would have Duke and Nevada right on par with them.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1060 on: December 03, 2018, 01:45:56 PM »
It is fantastic we are going to get credit for playing the Badgers as a top 12 team.  Even better when we beat them.

There is no way in hell the Badgers are a top 15 team in the country. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

BM1090

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1061 on: December 03, 2018, 01:55:53 PM »
It is fantastic we are going to get credit for playing the Badgers as a top 12 team.  Even better when we beat them.

There is no way in hell the Badgers are a top 15 team in the country.

Kenpom has them at #10.

But yeah, I agree.
Formerly MUeagle1090

Galway Eagle

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1062 on: December 03, 2018, 02:00:24 PM »
Kenpom has them at #10.

But yeah, I agree.

He's admitted his system is inaccurate with WI
“More the knowledge, lesser the ego. Lesser the knowledge, more the ego.” Albert Einstein a note for some posters

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1063 on: December 03, 2018, 02:01:48 PM »
Kenpom has them at #10.

But yeah, I agree.

Wisco is always in Kenpom's top 10. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1064 on: December 03, 2018, 02:05:27 PM »
Yes. Michigan is better than UW. But UNC, Purdue, and Nova are not. At least not right now. Those are the best wins of teams like Gonzaga and UVA, who started higher in the polls than Michigan did and has at least 1 win that is better than Michigan’s best, by a pretty decent margin.

I’d put Kansas, UVA, and Gonzaga over Michigan for sure and would have Duke and Nevada right on par with them.

UNC, Purdue, and Nova combined are better wins than Wisconsin, Dayton, and Maryland. Especially when Michigan dominated all three and Virginia struggled to put their opponents away while playing at a similar pace (so the idea of margin being irrelevant because of UVa's pace would be a false one).

And UNC, Purdue, and Nova are also better than Duke, Creighton, and Arizona, especially when two of those three were again by narrow margins.

Right now, as far as body of work, Michigan is the best team in the country. It's not close.

TheREALwrk

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1065 on: December 03, 2018, 02:08:21 PM »
He's admitted his system is inaccurate with WI

How do you mean?

Its DJOver

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1066 on: December 03, 2018, 02:10:44 PM »
How do you mean?

His algorithm value pace differently than others, so playing at a slower pace always helps them have better kenpom numbers than they deserve.  It would be similar with UVA except that they're a legit top 10 team. 

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1067 on: December 03, 2018, 02:13:37 PM »
How do you mean?

He wrote an article a few years ago about how Wisconsin benefited overly much in his system. It was largely based on pace of play, because a high efficiency at a slower pace would make for a smaller sample size, which pushed teams like Wisconsin and Virginia to the top of the model.

I'm not sure if that is still a problem. There are more top-100 teams in terms of pace (5) in the top-10 than bottom-100 teams (3).

BM1090

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1068 on: December 03, 2018, 02:14:34 PM »
He's admitted his system is inaccurate with WI

He did. But he also had made changes to his system since then to try to correct it.
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1069 on: December 03, 2018, 02:42:34 PM »
Right now, as far as body of work, Michigan is the best team in the country. It's not close.

All coaches with votes (but 1) and all AP voters disagree with you. 

I tend to agree somewhat, I'd probably have Michigan 3 behind 1. Kansas and 2. Gonzaga, but I do agree they've been the most impressive so far this season.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

Lazar's Headband

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1070 on: December 03, 2018, 02:59:07 PM »
UNC, Purdue, and Nova combined are better wins than Wisconsin, Dayton, and Maryland. Especially when Michigan dominated all three and Virginia struggled to put their opponents away while playing at a similar pace (so the idea of margin being irrelevant because of UVa's pace would be a false one).

And UNC, Purdue, and Nova are also better than Duke, Creighton, and Arizona, especially when two of those three were again by narrow margins.

Right now, as far as body of work, Michigan is the best team in the country. It's not close.

It's really too early to say how good any of those wins are.  We'll know much more later in the season.

BTW, Gonzaga beat Creighton by 11 and Arizona by 17. Not exactly close margins.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1071 on: December 03, 2018, 03:11:11 PM »
UNC, Purdue, and Nova combined are better wins than Wisconsin, Dayton, and Maryland. Especially when Michigan dominated all three and Virginia struggled to put their opponents away while playing at a similar pace (so the idea of margin being irrelevant because of UVa's pace would be a false one).

And UNC, Purdue, and Nova are also better than Duke, Creighton, and Arizona, especially when two of those three were again by narrow margins.

Right now, as far as body of work, Michigan is the best team in the country. It's not close.

Gonzaga and Kansas both have stronger wins at the top.

Zags beat Duke without Tillie which absolutely demolishes any other win to this point.

And Kansas has Tennessee and Michigan State as far superior wins as well
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

brewcity77

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1072 on: December 03, 2018, 03:16:32 PM »
BTW, Gonzaga beat Creighton by 11 and Arizona by 17. Not exactly close margins.

And they beat a bad Illinois team by 6. Gonzaga is good, but they have not been as impressive as Michigan so far. It's just a hard sell when the Zags' most decisive significant win (Arizona) is an equal margin to Michigan's least impressive win over UNC.

Lazar's Headband

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1073 on: December 03, 2018, 03:35:52 PM »
And they beat a bad Illinois team by 6. Gonzaga is good, but they have not been as impressive as Michigan so far. It's just a hard sell when the Zags' most decisive significant win (Arizona) is an equal margin to Michigan's least impressive win over UNC.

Well you never said anything about Illinois so I was confused about who the 2nd close game was against.

I know you're adamant about the quality of Michigan's wins but I think UNC and Purdue are both overrated.   We shall see.

MU_CHI

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 11/12/18
« Reply #1074 on: December 03, 2018, 03:55:25 PM »
And they beat a bad Illinois team by 6. Gonzaga is good, but they have not been as impressive as Michigan so far. It's just a hard sell when the Zags' most decisive significant win (Arizona) is an equal margin to Michigan's least impressive win over UNC.

Zags win against Duke is probably the best win in college basketball so far. So by your logic are you saying that the fact that Michigan beat Purdue by 19 and UNC by 17 that you're convinced they would beat both Duke and Gonzaga? Wins > Winning margin at the end of the day IMO.