Futbol Talk

[mu03eng]

Honest question from a non fan.  How easy/hard does the USA men's team have in qualifying for the World Cup compared to other parts of the world?

In short, harder than AP much easier than EMEA and easier than LA.

[Its DJOver]

Honest question from a non fan.  How easy/hard does the USA men's team have in qualifying for the World Cup compared to other parts of the world?

CONCACAF is notoriously easy to qualify from.  CONMEBOL is considered the most difficult followed by UEFA followed by a fairly steep drop off.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Honest question from a non fan.  How easy/hard does the USA men's team have in qualifying for the World Cup compared to other parts of the world?

It really depends on some of the draws.  For instance, a top team in Europe can get a relatively simple draw (see Germany in 2018) if they don't have a real top-notch second team to deal with.  Whereas Italy didn't make the Cup because they had to go against Spain in the group stage, then lost in the playoffs to another tough team in Sweden.

In Africa, it is similar, where only the group winners make the Finals.  So if you are placed with another good team, it's going to be difficult.

I would think the hardest is South America.  Ten teams playing a complete round robin.  Really the only "dogs" are Bolivia and Venezuela. 

[Its DJOver]

It really depends on some of the draws.  For instance, a top team in Europe can get a relatively simple draw (see Germany in 2018) if they don't have a real top-notch second team to deal with.  Whereas Italy didn't make the Cup because they had to go against Spain in the group stage, then lost in the playoffs to another tough team in Sweden.

In Africa, it is similar, where only the group winners make the Finals.  So if you are placed with another good team, it's going to be difficult.

I would think the hardest is South America.  Ten teams playing a complete round robin.  Really the only "dogs" are Bolivia and Venezuela.

But Germany kinda earned that via their FIFA ranking, that's how the groups were decided.  It's no coincidence that Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Croatia, and England all avoided each other in the group stage.  It doesn't work perfectly because as you noted Italy were in the same group as Spain, and The Dutch got stuck with France and Sweden, but the point still stands.   Plus any region that ha the host country in it, is going to have a slightly screwed up qualifying system.  CONCACAF in 2026 will actually be really interesting because it will be all the small countries playing each other for (probably) three spots, with the US, Mexico and Canada getting the automatic qualifier.

[wadesworld]

Another dumb non-fan question.  Are both qualifying tournaments and the World Cup COMPLETELY random "draws" in terms of "pools" (or whatever they may be called), or are there things like "one team from this group of countries will be in each different pool" kind of thing?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Another dumb non-fan question.  Are both qualifying tournaments and the World Cup COMPLETELY random "draws" in terms of "pools" (or whatever they may be called), or are there things like "one team from this group of countries will be in each different pool" kind of thing?

They are almost always seeded.  So if you have 8 groups of four, the top 8 teams will be in one pot, 9-16 in another, 17-24 in a third, etc.

It would be like if the NCAA tournament was decided by randomly drawing the one seeds into brackets, followed by two seeds, etc.

If you read this, it details how UEFA did their qualification back in 2018.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)

[Its DJOver]

Another dumb non-fan question.  Are both qualifying tournaments and the World Cup COMPLETELY random "draws" in terms of "pools" (or whatever they may be called), or are there things like "one team from this group of countries will be in each different pool" kind of thing?

This should help.
https://www.si.com/soccer/2017/11/14/world-cup-group-draw-pots-russia-2018

Host automatically gets put in "pot one", after that it's strictly by FIFA rankings (at least it was in 2018, they tweak it slightly almost every time for geography etc.). Still possible to get "group of deaths" (Germany, Spain, Denmark, Australia was possible in 2018), but much better balance.  Same/similar procedure happens with almost every tournament that has a group stage (both internationally and at club level).   

If a tournament is straight knock out, (FA Cup or League Cup for example), you can get marquee match-ups earlier.  In the build up to last years League Cup Final, Chelsea had to go through Liverpool, and Spurs while the toughest team City had to face was Leicester.

[Pakuni]

Another dumb non-fan question.  Are both qualifying tournaments and the World Cup COMPLETELY random "draws" in terms of "pools" (or whatever they may be called), or are there things like "one team from this group of countries will be in each different pool" kind of thing?

CONACAF just changed its qualifying format for the 2022 WC.

https://soccer.nbcsports.com/2019/07/10/explaining-concacafs-new-world-cup-qualification-format/

[BM1090]

Really don't like the new format.

[Its DJOver]

Really don't like the new format.

Can I ask why?  It really shouldn't/doesn't affect the USMNT very much at all, and it allows a lot of smaller countries opportunities to play significantly more games, even if their chances of qualification aren't increased at all.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I think the teams that have the most to complain about are the ones who are going to fall seventh or eighth in the FIFA rankings. Or maybe they don't since they have nothing but their on-field performance to blame. But the more I think about it, the more I think it was worth a change. 

[JWags85]

CONCACAF is nowhere near as hard as the qualifying in UEFA, but the only extra degree of difficulty is some of the decent teams playing in absolute viper pits, or you're playing on water logged repurposed cricket pitches for some of the island nations.  Comparable Euro squads to the US aren't playing top 70 nations in brutal conditions or barely squeaking by 100+ ranked squads cause the ball won't roll right. 

All that being said, the US should always roll right through the Hex.  Anything less is complete systemic failure.

[BM1090]

Can I ask why?  It really shouldn't/doesn't affect the USMNT very much at all, and it allows a lot of smaller countries opportunities to play significantly more games, even if their chances of qualification aren't increased at all.

I just think it unfairly punishes teams 7-12 and specifically countries like Curacao and Haiti who have invested a lot into the game and have been improving. They could have pushed for the Hex and direct qualification and instead now have to play in a 29 team tournament for the chance to maybe have a chance at .5 WC spots.

The use of FIFA rankings to determine the top 6 makes no sense to me either. The rankings can be gamed. Also, the cutoff date for the FIFA rankings is in less than a year. For CONCACAF to give nations less than a year notice this new qualifying format means teams ranked worse than 8ish don't have any chance to improve their ranking enough to make the hex. It also oddly rewards teams like Honduras and El Salvador who probably aren't top 6 teams in the region but will have a leg up to make the final round.

With regards to the USMNT, it's fine. Probably helps us.

[Its DJOver]

I think that you can make an argument that it helps teams like Curacao and Haiti.  Even if they were able to make the push and get into the Hex under the old system, the odds of them getting top 4 after 10 games going up against the likes of US, Mexico and Costa Rica is really low IMO.  Now they could, in theory, qualify without playing any of the regional big dogs. 

Someone from CONCACAF could now qualify for the inter-continental playoff without playing any team in the top 65, and assuming Australia comes out of the Oceanic group again, could qualify for the World Cup without playing a team in the top 40.  Compared to CONMEBOL where the format didn't allow the 16th ranked team to qualify, or UEFA where the 14th ranked team couldn't qualify, it's still ridiculously easy for CONCACAF teams compared to other regions in the world.

[Its DJOver]

https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/#CONCACAF

Updated FIFA rankings came out today.  Up 8 spots overall, still second in CONCACAF.  Top 6 next summer seems like it's almost a lock at this point regardless of the Nations League, although I don't 100% understand the point/ranking algorithm.

[JWags85]

I'm big on following movements of important USMNT components over the summer.

Zack Steffan joining Fortuna Dusseldorf on loan from Man City.  Good chance at plenty of first team Bundesliga action.  Then hopefully brought back to Man City to contribute.  Same age as Howard when he left MLS for Man Utd originally.

Paul Arriola rumored to be leaving DC United for either England or back to Liga MX.  Another good move IMO.  I really like him as a super sub on the wing for the US, needs to get more seasoning on top levels.  I got into an argument with someone recently who told me the MLS and Liga MX are on par with each other.  Which is absurd.  Top 2-3 teams in MLS can compete but there is a reason Liga MX dominates CONCACAF Champions League every year.

Tyler Boyd to Besiktas.  LOVE it.  Great league, club that scores a lot of goals and plays very offensive minded soccer.  Unfortunately its not CL, but Europa should provide him plenty of action.  Great audition to a top 4 league in Europe.

Matt Miazga back to Reading on Loan.  Becoming mini-Everton of the mid 2010s now with Miazga and Novakovich.  Nice and close to Chelsea to hopefully keep an eye on him.  Hopefully he's not fallen completely out of their plans.

[Its DJOver]

I highly doubt that Steffan will ever play for City.  He's only one year younger that their no 1 and wouldn't want to be a back up.  Good loan move, but he'll be sold by city within a couple of years for a profit.

Agree on Arriola.  MX is much better than MLS, but would still rather see him go across the pond.

Great move for Boyd.  See him doing well there and some bigger club taking a shot with him.

Miazga is staring to run out of time with Chelsea.  24 and 4th straight year on loan.  I think he's good enough for a mid tier big 5 league team, but the breakthrough has to come soon.  Development has slowed over the last 24 months.

[JWags85]

I highly doubt that Steffan will ever play for City.  He's only one year younger that their no 1 and wouldn't want to be a back up.  Good loan move, but he'll be sold by city within a couple of years for a profit.

Miazga is staring to run out of time with Chelsea.  24 and 4th straight year on loan.  I think he's good enough for a mid tier big 5 league team, but the breakthrough has to come soon.  Development has slowed over the last 24 months.

Claudio Bravo is 36 coming off an Achilles injury.  I could see Steffan being brought back in 2020 to spell Ederson, play the Cup matches, and then likely get sold elsewhere in England.  Having an America wear the shirt also helps with their continued US branding efforts.

Agreed on Miazga.  The Chelsea loan system can be even more perilous when you have managers constantly coming in and out.  I'm not optimistic though.  I'm worried enough about Pulisic there.

[Its DJOver]

Claudio Bravo is 36 coming off an Achilles injury.  I could see Steffan being brought back in 2020 to spell Ederson, play the Cup matches, and then likely get sold elsewhere in England.  Having an America wear the shirt also helps with their continued US branding efforts.

The thing is, that I'm not even sure that he would be the best keeper that mcfc currently has out on loan.

https://www.transfermarkt.us/arijanet-muri%C4%87/profil/spieler/371021

Four years younger.  Came up through the academy (which actually means something), recalled after Bravo's injury last year and impressed in the chances given.  Also, as much as the branding helps, that will have 0% influence over Pep.  He will play who he wants, regardless of what anyone else says.  I absolutely want Steffan to succeed, and I think he will, I just doubt that it will be with City.  Remember when City signed Mix Diskerud and people freaked out because it was an American going to a big club?  Never made an appearance for City.

[JWags85]

The thing is, that I'm not even sure that he would be the best keeper that mcfc currently has out on loan.

https://www.transfermarkt.us/arijanet-muri%C4%87/profil/spieler/371021

Four years younger.  Came up through the academy (which actually means something), recalled after Bravo's injury last year and impressed in the chances given.  Also, as much as the branding helps, that will have 0% influence over Pep.  He will play who he wants, regardless of what anyone else says.  I absolutely want Steffan to succeed, and I think he will, I just doubt that it will be with City.  Remember when City signed Mix Diskerud and people freaked out because it was an American going to a big club?  Never made an appearance for City.

Fair point.  Mix is completely different for me.  That was someone they had in their system at NYCFC that they wanted to put into their developmental system.  No intelligent fan thought he would be putting on the City kit.  He wasn't even a standout MLS player.  Steffan on the other hand was an MLS star and the figured US #1, which matters as thats the only position the US has consistently churned out at an international level.  But I fully agree the odds of him being a City player, much less a regular, aren't high.

[Its DJOver]

https://twitter.com/SkyKaveh/status/1154780800216371201

I wasn't overly impressed with Long during the Gold Cup, but if this were to go through his ceiling would skyrocket.  One of the best leagues in the world with a top manager.  More please.

[Its DJOver]

https://www.si.com/soccer/2019/07/28/caden-benson-free-kick-goal-special-olympics-fc-dallas

Thunderbolt alert.

[JWags85]

https://twitter.com/SkyKaveh/status/1154780800216371201

I wasn't overly impressed with Long during the Gold Cup, but if this were to go through his ceiling would skyrocket.  One of the best leagues in the world with a top manager.  More please.

1000% agree.  He wasn't great and I further was fairly unhappy with his selection in general.  But this would be huge for him, and hopefully help put Ream out to pasture.

Seeing now that its fallen through for the moment due to work permit issues.  I find this to be ridiculous.  Amazing how US internationals have so much trouble getting work permits.  Its always those who have European grandparents that make it work with a separate passport.  I have multiple friends that had no issues getting work permits to work as accountants, consultants, and even lawyers.  Yet a top athlete playing for a Premier League club can't secure one.

[Its DJOver]

So week one of the Prem in the books, and surprise, it looks like it's really only going to be a two horse race again.  City made West Ham look like a high school team and Liverpool looked equally impressive against (an admittedly bad) Norwich side.  Spurs and Arsenal both looked so-so for long stretches and Sundays' United Chelsea game was more about how Chelsea couldn't strengthen and have a rookie manager rather than United being "back".  Expect top two to be another slug-fest, and then a solid 15-20 point drop off. 

[Golden Avalanche]

So week one of the Prem in the books, and surprise, it looks like it's really only going to be a two horse race again.  City made West Ham look like a high school team and Liverpool looked equally impressive against (an admittedly bad) Norwich side.  Spurs and Arsenal both looked so-so for long stretches and Sundays' United Chelsea game was more about how Chelsea couldn't strengthen and have a rookie manager rather than United being "back".  Expect top two to be another slug-fest, and then a solid 15-20 point drop off.

When a majority of the competition doesn't field a full first choice squad it seems unwise to make sweeping generalizations at either end of the table.