NL Central Pissing Match - 2011

[dwaderoy2004]

Greinke has been unlucky as hell.  He's been hittable, but realistically, his ERA should be closer to 3.5 than 5.5 based on his peripherals.  read this:

http://disciplesofuecker.com/if-it-wasnt-for-bad-luck-zack-greinked-have-no-luck-at-all/

Added: that being said, the top three of Halladay, Hamels and Lee blows Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum out of the water.  But with Blanton and Oswalt being hurt, the brewers rotation is certainly deeper.  Advantage Phils come playoff time, but it probably all evens out in the regular season.

[MerrittsMustache]

Greinke has been unlucky as hell.  He's been hittable, but realistically, his ERA should be closer to 3.5 than 5.5 based on his peripherals.  read this:

http://disciplesofuecker.com/if-it-wasnt-for-bad-luck-zack-greinked-have-no-luck-at-all/

Added: that being said, the top three of Halladay, Hamels and Lee blows Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum out of the water.  But with Blanton and Oswalt being hurt, the brewers rotation is certainly deeper.  Advantage Phils come playoff time, but it probably all evens out in the regular season.

I don't care what his peripherals say he should be, his ERA is 5.45 and I find it hard to call any pitcher "unlucky" when he's got 7-3 record despite having an ERA that high.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't care what his peripherals say he should be, his ERA is 5.45 and I find it hard to call any pitcher "unlucky" when he's got 7-3 record despite having an ERA that high.

Yeah, who cares about statistics!

[dwaderoy2004]

I don't care what his peripherals say he should be, his ERA is 5.45 and I find it hard to call any pitcher "unlucky" when he's got 7-3 record despite having an ERA that high.

You don't understand baseball.

[reinko]

You don't understand baseball.

I understand baseball, but what the crap does this mean?      

Let's start with the basics. Greinke has a 2.98 FIP, a sparkling 2.15 xFIP, and an unsightly 5.45 ERA (the ERA is with Greinke only allowing 2 ER last night; Fangraphs appears to have not updated that yet). He is, unsurprisingly, getting poor results in two of the most common "luck" stats; he's sporting a .349 BABIP and a 15.9% HR/FB ratio. These two numbers tend to be around .300 and 11%, respectively, so clearly Zack is getting no help there.

[NavinRJohnson]

Yes, and he has a career ERA under 4 in nearly 200 starts, playing for perhaps the worst team in baseball, in the American League. Regression to the mean, coupled with him making his Spring Training starts in the MLB regular season would seem to suggest that he is in for a pretty good second half. Not to mention, that Halladay, Lee, and Hammel's currently have ERAs are all significantly lower than their career. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that they will see theirs creep up a little.That's not really the point though, all I'm saying is that at this moment looking forward, I like the way the Brewers stack up against the Phillies. Their rotation still gets the nod, but I don't think the gap is as wide as most would believe it to be. The Brewers' bullpen is probably better, as is the offense.

[dwaderoy2004]

I understand baseball, but what the crap does this mean?      

Let's start with the basics. Greinke has a 2.98 FIP, a sparkling 2.15 xFIP, and an unsightly 5.45 ERA (the ERA is with Greinke only allowing 2 ER last night; Fangraphs appears to have not updated that yet). He is, unsurprisingly, getting poor results in two of the most common "luck" stats; he's sporting a .349 BABIP and a 15.9% HR/FB ratio. These two numbers tend to be around .300 and 11%, respectively, so clearly Zack is getting no help there.

FIP is fielding independent pitching.  it takes into account K-rate, walk rate, home runs allowed and hit by pitches to give you a number that represents only what the pitcher can directly control.  any balls in play that are not a home run are subject to fielders making the correct play.  so basically the FIP is what his ERA should be if luck were taken out of the equation.  xFIP normalizes home runs allowed by doing it as a percentage of home runs allowed per fly ball.  Which is why his exceedingly high ratio of 16% is very unlucky as it represents almost 50% higher than the norm.  BABIP is batting average on balls in play, and again, greinke's numbers are much higher than the average, suggesting bad luck, perhaps due to the brewers crappy defense.  

[MUBurrow]

I think Greinke will be better, but not old Greinke either. The Brewers defense will always suck, and so Greinke will continue to be "unlucky" in that sense.  No matter what his sabers are, his ERA will be 'unluckily' high all year. Plus, the type of pitcher he is figures into how unlucky his HR/FB ration is.  He has always pounded the zone, and so his HR/FB ratio will be higher than the average.  Its not like he's a groundball pitcher who has had all of his mistakes go over the wall. He just greases balls in the zone and dares batters to hit them.

[dwaderoy2004]

Agree 100%, which is why I think his ERA should be closer to 3.50 as opposed to the sub 3.00 ERA predicted by FIP.

[MU B2002]

Anybody else get a chuckle out of Prince having to monitor what his son was doing the entire press conference. 

[Benny B]

Anybody else get a chuckle out of Prince having to monitor what his son was doing the entire press conference. 

Honestly, I thought his boys were going to start fighting over it and snap it in half on national TV.  That would have been legendary.

[MerrittsMustache]

FIP is fielding independent pitching.  it takes into account K-rate, walk rate, home runs allowed and hit by pitches to give you a number that represents only what the pitcher can directly control.  any balls in play that are not a home run are subject to fielders making the correct play.  so basically the FIP is what his ERA should be if luck were taken out of the equation.  xFIP normalizes home runs allowed by doing it as a percentage of home runs allowed per fly ball.  Which is why his exceedingly high ratio of 16% is very unlucky as it represents almost 50% higher than the norm.  BABIP is batting average on balls in play, and again, greinke's numbers are much higher than the average, suggesting bad luck, perhaps due to the brewers crappy defense.  

So if you're numbers are much higher than average, it means you're unlucky? I always thought it meant that you weren't all that good. I should go back and look at my high school pitching FIP and xFIP. I may have been MLB material but didn't realize it!

[MerrittsMustache]

Yeah, who cares about statistics!

You don't understand baseball.

Are theoretical runs being used to decide baseball games or are they still sticking with actual runs scored? Assuming they still use actual runs, I'd take a "lucky" pitcher like Halladay, Lee, Verlander, Weaver or Sabathia over Greinke any day.

[Hards Alumni]

Are theoretical runs being used to decide baseball games or are they still sticking with actual runs scored? Assuming they still use actual runs, I'd take a "lucky" pitcher like Halladay, Lee, Verlander, Weaver or Sabathia over Greinke any day.

No, they are used as a predictor in conversations like this.

If you want to have a conversation about wins that is fine.  You can back up your argument with actual wins.  But that would be stupid since wins are a function of more than just pitching.

Hey, whatever bogus criteria you want to rate pitching on is fine, just remember Chris Capuano had a season where he won 18 games and CC Sabathia has a season where he only won 11.

Who is the better pitcher?

[HouWarrior]

The Houston Chron guy, R Justice, is all for Astros going to the AL. He's originally from Dallas(ugh), and sees us with a Rangers rivalry...I dont. He says:

..."I haven't spoken to Jim Crane about the issue, but he's said to strongly favor staying in the National League. I favor the American League because I think playing the Rangers 18 times a year would do great things for MLB in this state. It would also help the Rangers in cutting down their number of 9 p.m. starts.

Drayton McLane said that in his walks around Minute Maid Park he has been surprised by the passion fans spoke out against moving to the AL. Other than having a dozen or so 9 p.m. road games, I don't see what the big deal is. The Astros have never really had a real rival, but the Rangers could be a great one...."

Justice lacks a Houston pedigree, and fails to realize that the Houston Buffs were the AAA farm team for the Cards, for many decades, then the Colt 45s joined the NL in early 60s, later becoming the Astros. Like Milw,  it was always a natl league town. When Brewers first came, people listened to cubs games in the stands...the rivalry never fixed with the white sox. I left before Harveys wallbangers, so maybe the AL took hold at some point, but I was very very happy when Brew crew joined the NL central. It has seemed a more natural fit, to me.


Do yall think our NL central brethren care enough, or will holler over a push of the Astros to the AL?

I realize our geography makes us a bit of an outlier, but Houstonians are really mad about any shift to the AL...we are strictly a natl league town, and dont want to switch--can you relate?

Im just hoping against hope for some empathy, as its a little similar to Milw.'s situation...historically.

BTW, if you prefer to say good riddance or prefer we go, I am a grownup, and can accept that too...Im just wondering if yall have thoughts here. Thanks.

[GGGG]

I personally don't care if Houston leaves or not.

However, I think Houston fans will adapt just like Brewer fans did to a switch in leagues.  It really isn't that big of a deal.

I like the idea of a full balanced schedule, no divisions, with the top five going to the playoffs.

[MerrittsMustache]

No, they are used as a predictor in conversations like this.

If you want to have a conversation about wins that is fine.  You can back up your argument with actual wins.  But that would be stupid since wins are a function of more than just pitching.

Hey, whatever bogus criteria you want to rate pitching on is fine, just remember Chris Capuano had a season where he won 18 games and CC Sabathia has a season where he only won 11.

Who is the better pitcher?

When did I ever mention that pitchers should be measured by their number of wins?

[dwaderoy2004]

So if you're numbers are much higher than average, it means you're unlucky? I always thought it meant that you weren't all that good. I should go back and look at my high school pitching FIP and xFIP. I may have been MLB material but didn't realize it!

no, but maybe you should retake your statistics course.  these are statistically significant deviations from not only the league average but his career averages, suggesting with high confidence that luck is a large factor in his numbers.

[MerrittsMustache]

no, but maybe you should retake your statistics course.  these are statistically significant deviations from not only the league average but his career averages, suggesting with high confidence that luck is a large factor in his numbers.

So if you're stats are significantly higher than the league average then it simply means you're unlucky. Got it. And all this time I just thought Doug Davis sucked!

Perhaps it's more a matter of Greinke's 2009 season being a statistical outlier that skews his career "averages." Take away that season then look at his career numbers. Pretty ordinary.

[dwaderoy2004]

You would only have a point if Doug Davis has a FIP that was significantly lower than his ERA.  For his career, his FIP and ERA are almost perfectly in line (see FIP-ERA):

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1244/doug-davis

Greinke also has a pretty symmetrical FIP to ERA throughout his career:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1943/

As such, this year's numbers of 2.98 FIP and a 5.45 ERA for a difference of almost 2.5 runs proves that luck is the main reason for his uncharacteristically high ERA.

But I'm sure you'll just make another clever one liner, so I'm done because you really don't understand what you are arguing.

[wadesworld]

You would only have a point if Doug Davis has a FIP that was significantly lower than his ERA.  For his career, his FIP and ERA are almost perfectly in line (see FIP-ERA):

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1244/doug-davis

Greinke also has a pretty symmetrical FIP to ERA throughout his career:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/1943/

As such, this year's numbers of 2.98 FIP and a 5.45 ERA for a difference of almost 2.5 runs proves that luck is the main reason for his uncharacteristically high ERA.

But I'm sure you'll just make another clever one liner, so I'm done because you really don't understand what you are arguing.

Nope, he doesn't.  It's hard to have an intelligent baseball conversation with a Cubs fan.  That's OK.  The average baseball fan wouldn't understand it either.  It reminds me of taking a girl to a baseball game.  They think it's fun and all, but they don't understand the game and how it's supposed to be.  Just like Merritt doesn't understand that there are statistics beyond just ERA that matter/prove a pitcher's worth.  He probably thinks batting average is the most telling offensive statistic too.

[MerrittsMustache]

Nope, he doesn't.  It's hard to have an intelligent baseball conversation with a Cubs fan.  That's OK.  The average baseball fan wouldn't understand it either.  It reminds me of taking a girl to a baseball game.  They think it's fun and all, but they don't understand the game and how it's supposed to be.  Just like Merritt doesn't understand that there are statistics beyond just ERA that matter/prove a pitcher's worth.  He probably thinks batting average is the most telling offensive statistic too.

Actually, I'd be willing to bet that I understand baseball more than any of you and have played more baseball than any of you. Spitting out obscure stats as excuses for your team's underachieving pitcher doesn't demonstrate knowledge of the game. It means that you can regurgitate numbers. Good for you guys though. Keep thinking that you're knowledgable fans. After all, ignorance is bliss.

[Hards Alumni]

Actually, I'd be willing to bet that I understand baseball more than any of you and have played more baseball than any of you. Spitting out obscure stats as excuses for your team's underachieving pitcher doesn't demonstrate knowledge of the game. It means that you can regurgitate numbers. Good for you guys though. Keep thinking that you're knowledgable fans. After all, ignorance is bliss.

Since this is the way the conversation is going...

I'm smarter than you, na na na na boo boo, stck your head in doo doo.

[dwaderoy2004]

Actually, I'd be willing to bet that I understand baseball more than any of you and have played more baseball than any of you. Spitting out obscure stats as excuses for your team's underachieving pitcher doesn't demonstrate knowledge of the game. It means that you can regurgitate numbers. Good for you guys though. Keep thinking that you're knowledgable fans. After all, ignorance is bliss.

But wait, how do you justify that Greinke is underachieving?  oh yeah...STATS!  we're just talking about ones you don't understand so you belittle them.  The fact that you don't know about these "obscure" stats demonstrates lack of knowledge on your part and is the definition of ignorance.  Stats like these are why Felix won the Cy Young last year.  Look, you're right that ERA is a fair indicator of his RESULTS this year.  But his actual PERFORMANCE has been better than his RESULTS.  I'd be willing to bet you that his ERA ends up below 4.00 for the season.  if you think FIP is garbage, then you have nothing to worry about...

[MerrittsMustache]

But wait, how do you justify that Greinke is underachieving?  oh yeah...STATS!  we're just talking about ones you don't understand so you belittle them.  The fact that you don't know about these "obscure" stats demonstrates lack of knowledge on your part and is the definition of ignorance.  Stats like these are why Felix won the Cy Young last year.  Look, you're right that ERA is a fair indicator of his RESULTS this year.  But his actual PERFORMANCE has been better than his RESULTS.  I'd be willing to bet you that his ERA ends up below 4.00 for the season.  if you think FIP is garbage, then you have nothing to worry about...

Are you kidding me?! You think it was Felix's FIP and xFIP that won him the Cy Young? It wasn't his league-leading ERA, IP and H/9? How about his 1.057 WHIP, 6 CG or 232 Ks? Did those have anything to do with it? And, oh by the way, those are actual stats, not theoretical numbers to show how lucky or unlucky he may or may not have been.

What do you want to bet that ZG's actual ERA is lower than 4.00 at season's end?