NL Central Pissing Match - 2011

[dwaderoy2004]

Are you kidding me?! You think it was Felix's FIP and xFIP that won him the Cy Young? It wasn't his league-leading ERA, IP and H/9? How about his 1.057 WHIP, 6 CG or 232 Ks? Did those have anything to do with it? And, oh by the way, those are actual stats, not theoretical numbers to show how lucky or unlucky he may or may not have been.

What do you want to bet that ZG's actual ERA is lower than 4.00 at season's end?

Man, look at you just regurgitating stats.  that's weird.  Did i say it was his FIP or xFIP?  I said stats like these.  even 5 years ago, a guy with a .500 record would not have sniffed the Cy Young.  It's because of people starting to understand sabers that Felix won the Cy Young.  It seems to be your argument that luck doesn't matter.  How then, did Felix lose 12 games last year?  His stats clearly indicate his dominance...yet 12 losses?  Maybe the fact that his run support per game was the lowest in the AL by 0.75 runs?  No luck involved there...

Loser won't post on any baseball-related threads anymore.

EDIT: Actually what we should be betting is whether or not Greinke has a Sub 3.00 ERA from here on out, since that is what FIP actually predicts.  It does not take into account current ERA to estimate end of year ERA.

[Benny B]

http://dlvr.it/bt9kL

The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and defending World Series champ San Francisco Giants are also thought to have interest in Beltran, though a scout told [Yahoo Sports] that the Milwaukee Brewers are "a dark horse in the Beltran sweepstakes."

FOXSports has it that the Phillies and Red Sox "are among the most aggressive ... if not the most aggressive" suitors for the 34-year-old Beltran, who got on base five times in five chances in his return from three games off with the flu Tuesday night.

FOXSports names the Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, and Atlanta Braves as being interested in Beltran as well.
--------------------

Phillies & San Fran, sure.  Red Sox, you bet.  Yankees, of course.  Brewers, WTF?!?

Question the first: Where do you put Beltran?  Certainly not left or right, so does he have enough leg in him to go back to CF?  And is moving Tony Plush from the line-up really a good idea... granted the guy has no pop, but he's a spark plug.  How many game-winning rallies has Plush been an integral part of this year?  Nearly all of them, perhaps?

Question the second: What are you going to give up to get him?  Beltran, possibly aside from Reyes (depending on his health/recovery over the next 5 days), is the prize acquisition on the market.  It's almost a guarantee that whoever gets him is going to overpay.  I'm not sure the Brewers are going to be willing to give up the level of prospect(s) needed to get Beltran considering the lack of depth on the farm right now.

Question the third: If you're Doug Melvin, aren't you all-in on getting a SS right now?  When you look at the marginal spread (mmmm... marginal spread) between what you have vs. Beltran & Yuni B vs. an average SS, the latter is where you're going to get bang for your buck.

IMO, the only way the Brewers are in the Beltran sweepstakes is if they're willing to send (and the Mets want) one of their current outfielders back... I'd actually be quite happy trading Corey Hart & a PTBNL or two (+ Yuni B, otherwise DFA his behind) for a package deal of Reyes and Beltran... I don't know whether that's even enough, if the Mets are one of the 15 on Hart's NTL, and whether the Mets realistically are planning on being in it in the next two years (otherwise, there's no value in just two years of Corey Hart at $9 & $10M.)

[Hards Alumni]

The Mets will be trading Beltran away for a song.  He is due too much money and they are having financial troubles.

The Brewers don't really *need* Beltran, but if we can get him on the cheap... why not?

Obviously, I'd rather have Reyes... he is a franchise guy.  I think the Mets are going to be asking a lot more for him... if they even care to trade him at all.

[MerrittsMustache]

Man, look at you just regurgitating stats.  that's weird.  Did i say it was his FIP or xFIP?  I said stats like these.  even 5 years ago, a guy with a .500 record would not have sniffed the Cy Young.  It's because of people starting to understand sabers that Felix won the Cy Young.  It seems to be your argument that luck doesn't matter.  How then, did Felix lose 12 games last year?  His stats clearly indicate his dominance...yet 12 losses?  Maybe the fact that his run support per game was the lowest in the AL by 0.75 runs?  No luck involved there...

Loser won't post on any baseball-related threads anymore.

EDIT: Actually what we should be betting is whether or not Greinke has a Sub 3.00 ERA from here on out, since that is what FIP actually predicts.  It does not take into account current ERA to estimate end of year ERA.

How did run support affect Felix's overall numbers outside of W/L, a stat that most baseball fans would tell you is overrated?

Let's just agree that you'll stick to your new-fangled theoretical statistics and keep thinking that Greinke has just been unlucky and I'll stick to my curmudgeon-y actual statistics and keep thinking that Greinke hasn't performed very well and just go on our merry ways.

[dwaderoy2004]

Fair enough mustache.  Soon enough we can get back to MU basketball anyway...

[Benny B]

The Mets will be trading Beltran away for a song.  He is due too much money and they are having financial troubles.

The Brewers don't really *need* Beltran, but if we can get him on the cheap... why not?

Obviously, I'd rather have Reyes... he is a franchise guy.  I think the Mets are going to be asking a lot more for him... if they even care to trade him at all.

Agreed... plus you also keep him from going to STL, SF or PHI.  (Does "defense wins championships" apply to defensive trades?)

Nevertheless, I think the Brewers need to focus on the following SS's... start at the top, work your way down until you're comfortable with the demands from the other side, and pull the trigger:

1) Jose Reyes
2) Yunel Escobar (could command even more than Reyes if Toronto is even willing to deal.. certainly helps to solve the SS problem for next year, though)
3) Jamey Carroll (not much of a defensive upgrade, but Brewers could use a guy with a .360 OBP)
4) Brendan Ryan (offensively similar to Yuni B, but probably best defensive option out there)
5) Erik Aybar (Although, Angels aren't out of it... yet, and he has another year of arbitration)
6) Clint Barmes (having a great year defensively, although it's nearly impossible to trade within the division)

If the Brewers can't get one of the above SS's, then I say plug Josh Wilson in, hope for very few ground balls, and turn the efforts to another arm (lefty?) for the pen.

[wadesworld]

How did run support affect Felix's overall numbers outside of W/L, a stat that most baseball fans would tell you is overrated?

Let's just agree that you'll stick to your new-fangled theoretical statistics and keep thinking that Greinke has just been unlucky and I'll stick to my curmudgeon-y actual statistics and keep thinking that Greinke hasn't performed very well and just go on our merry ways.

Would you agree that there are different defenses behind different pitchers?  So a team like the Brewers who has an infield of McGehee, Betancourt, Weeks, and Fielder will give up more runs than even an average defensive infield, let alone a good defensive infield.  On top of that, Greinke is a pitcher who POUNDS AWAY at the strike zone.  Which means he will rely on the strikeout and on his defense to make plays for him.  So when he has one of the worst defenses behind him, his numbers are going to be worse than a pitcher who ha a great defense behind him or one who relies on deception.

[MUBurrow]

Agreed... plus you also keep him from going to STL, SF or PHI.  (Does "defense wins championships" apply to defensive trades?)

Nevertheless, I think the Brewers need to focus on the following SS's... start at the top, work your way down until you're comfortable with the demands from the other side, and pull the trigger:

1) Jose Reyes
2) Yunel Escobar (could command even more than Reyes if Toronto is even willing to deal.. certainly helps to solve the SS problem for next year, though)
3) Jamey Carroll (not much of a defensive upgrade, but Brewers could use a guy with a .360 OBP)
4) Brendan Ryan (offensively similar to Yuni B, but probably best defensive option out there)
5) Erik Aybar (Although, Angels aren't out of it... yet, and he has another year of arbitration)
6) Clint Barmes (having a great year defensively, although it's nearly impossible to trade within the division)

If the Brewers can't get one of the above SS's, then I say plug Josh Wilson in, hope for very few ground balls, and turn the efforts to another arm (lefty?) for the pen.

I generally agree, but I don't think the Crew should pay what its going to take to get Beltran. The talk was putting Beltran in right and shifting Corey to center. Yuck city. Plus i just dont think the nyjer for beltran trade nets enough to be worth the price you pay for Beltran. 

The deal I would bite on but doubt Toronto would: Corey Hart for Yunel Escobar straight up.  The Jays are invested in Yunel, but its incredibly team friendly. He's due $5m this year and next, with team options for $5m in both 2014 and 2015. I think thats a great bargain.  Corey Hart meanwhile is due almost $25m over the next three years. Escobar gives you less power, more average, and plays a weaker position. I think I'd do that, especially with all the RF bats available on the cheaps. If you could turn Hart + something small into Escobar, then flip a low-mid level prospect or two for a Willingham, Ludwick, Francoeur, etc, I think you're better now and in the future.

[Benny B]

I generally agree, but I don't think the Crew should pay what its going to take to get Beltran. The talk was putting Beltran in right and shifting Corey to center. Yuck city. Plus i just dont think the nyjer for beltran trade nets enough to be worth the price you pay for Beltran. 

The deal I would bite on but doubt Toronto would: Corey Hart for Yunel Escobar straight up.  The Jays are invested in Yunel, but its incredibly team friendly. He's due $5m this year and next, with team options for $5m in both 2014 and 2015. I think thats a great bargain.  Corey Hart meanwhile is due almost $25m over the next three years. Escobar gives you less power, more average, and plays a weaker position. I think I'd do that, especially with all the RF bats available on the cheaps. If you could turn Hart + something small into Escobar, then flip a low-mid level prospect or two for a Willingham, Ludwick, Francoeur, etc, I think you're better now and in the future.

I was thinking the exact same thing last night before the Gomez injury; although for the reasons you mentioned, I'm not sure that Toronto would be interested unless you package Corey with another top prospect or take on a good portion of his salary.

However, I've changed my mind on Beltran after last night's game.  Tim Brown (Yahoo Sports) seems to think Beltran can be had for prospects or salary... I can't say I disagree given the Mets financial picture.  If that's true, Doug Melvin would become legendary if he could pull off two trades: 1) Beltran for a mid-level prospect or two ("hey... remember that PTBNL list we gave you for K-Rod... we'll take Carlos, you pick four") and 2) Escobar for some combination of Corey Hart, Mat Gamel, cash or a PTBNL.

Imagine a lineup that looks like this going into September:

Weeks
Morgan
Braun
Fielder
Beltran
Escobar
McGehee
Lucroy

If McGehee keeps hitting the way he has thus far in the 2nd half, I'd put that 1-8 against anyone.  Coupled with an B+ pitching staff, and I think you have enough to be seriously considered as WS contenders.

All it's going to cost you is about $12M, a couple of unproven/unready prospects, and Corey Hart.  If it means becoming the instant NL favorites, I would say that's an easy decision to make.

Granted, they'd be left gaping holes at RF and 1B this off-season, but those might just be two of the easiest positions to fill this year on the FA market, via trades or from within during the off-season.  Otherwise, the entire core of players is back.  Plus, they'll have some compensatory draft picks depending on where Fielder and/or Beltran sign.

[whodem]

Thank god we have the Cardinals as the measuring stick for baseball etiquette.

[reinko]

Thank god we have the Cardinals as the measuring stick for baseball etiquette.

The difference in calls is fantastic.  I think the Cardinals TV call takes the cake on this one.

http://www.sportsgrid.com/mlb/video-yadier-molina-bumps-spits-on-umpire/

The Cardinals, the greater uniter between Brewers and Cubs fans.

[wadesworld]

The Cardinals, the greater uniter between Brewers and Cubs fans.

+1. Used to hate the Cubs more. Over the last 3-4 years it's the Cardinals by far. And it has nothing to do with the Cubs sucking. Can't stand anybody on the Cardinals

[MerrittsMustache]

The Cardinals really are punks and it all starts with LaRussa. With the exception of Braun, I really don't have a problem with any of the Brewers and wouldn't mind seeing them win the division. I'd prefer if Pittsburgh won it but they seem to be fading having lost 2 in a row to the suddenly surging Cubs.

[MerrittsMustache]

From Phil Rogers of The Trib...

Lance Lynn should be Tony La Russa's new favorite pitcher. The Cardinals' reliever made La Russa's latest game of Mr. Macho Baseball 2012 a little more palatable, at least for La Russa himself and the Cardinals' tunnel-visioned fans.

One thing about La Russa. He can get self righteous at the drop of a hat if his players are hit with pitches, and just as quickly he'll either order or intimidate his pitcher into retaliating. It can get silly, and it can get dangerous, and it did both on Tuesday night in Milwaukee. It also probably should have cost the Cardinals an important game with the NL Central leaders, but Lynn contained the damage.

La Russa lost it after Takashi Saito hit Albert Pujols in the hand with a pitch. No one, including La Russa, thought Saito hit Pujols deliberately. Yet La Russa ordered Jason Motte to drill the Brewers' Ryan Braun in the bottom of the inning. It took him two pitches to do it, but Motte got Braun in the left shoulder of a pitch as he ducked away.

There was an odd bit of timing to the incident. The game was tied 7-7, in the seventh inning, yet La Russa thought the effort to protect Pujols was worth putting the go-ahead run on base with no outs. That's about as hard core as it gets.

The move blew up on La Russa when lefty Marc Rzepcynski then walked Prince Fielder, putting men on first and second with no outs. Lynn came in to face Casey McGehee, who reached on an infield single, loading the bases with no outs. But the St. Louis reliever turned into Harry Houdini, retiring Yuniesky Betancourt, Jonathan Lucroy and pinch hitter Mark Kotsay without the Brewers getting Braun home from third, and the Cardinals would go on to win 8-7 in the 11th inning.

The Brewers' television crew of Brian Anderson and Bill Schroeder had the right take on the incident, in real time. Schroeder called it "bush league'' and then referenced the ethical high ground that La Russa and the Cardinals cling to while taking cheap shots they wouldn't tolerate from the other side.

"They fashion themselves as the keeper of baseball etiquette,'' Schroeder said. "They're nothing if not predictable. Complain about everything. That's Cardinals baseball.''

La Russa admitted afterward that he didn't think Saito was throwing at Pujols. He didn't like him throwing a pitch above the waist on the inside part of the plate.

"I don't want to hear about our tactics vs. what they did," La Russa said. "They did not make an intentional hit, but they tried to throw the ball up and in. It's a very dangerous pitch and we almost paid a hell of a price. Just look at the location and potential danger of the two (pitches). That's a dangerous pitch whoever throws it. ... I'm tired of the danger. Get the ball down if you want to get the ball inside. That's one of the ways you avoid any nonsense."

On Monday night, La Russa had filed a complaint with umpire chief Gary Darling during a game against the Brewers, apparently complaining that lighting inconsistencies with the ribbon board that surrounds the stands above the loge level made it darker when the Cardinals were batting than when the Brewers hit.

Really. He did.

The Brewers discussed the situation with league officials but didn't change anything. "It's all been handled," Brewers GM Doug Melvin told the Journal Sentinel. "I really don't have any comment on it. We didn't change anything. There was no reason to change anything. What was brought up, nothing had to be changed."

Brewers manager Ron Roenicke did not order his pitchers to retaliate against the Cardinals on Tuesday. But keep an eye on Wednesday's game. The Brewers just might be in a mood to send a message or two of their own.

[Hards Alumni]

Lets not forget that La Russa feels the need to call an announcer for the other team so that he can explain his comments to the Great Tony La Russa.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/126704128.html

[Mayor McCheese]

Lets not forget that La Russa feels the need to call an announcer for the other team so that he can explain his comments to the Great Tony La Russa.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/126704128.html

I was at the game on Tuesday, so I missed Schroeder's call from the throw at Braun - can I find it anywhere?

[NavinRJohnson]

nm

[reinko]

I was at the game on Tuesday, so I missed Schroeder's call from the throw at Braun - can I find it anywhere?

http://deadspin.com/5827532/how-the-brewers-and-cardinals-broadcast-crews-reacted-to-the-ryan-braun-plunking-last-night

[Mayor McCheese]

http://deadspin.com/5827532/how-the-brewers-and-cardinals-broadcast-crews-reacted-to-the-ryan-braun-plunking-last-night

Thank You. 

[Mayor McCheese]

http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/pirates-acquire-lee-ludwick-to-bolster-2ndhalf-col,21073/

So much for the Pirates...

[Benny B]

What a week... you'd never know that NFL training camp was in full gear (metaphorically speaking):

1) It's amazing how quiet it gets when the Cubs are 16 games out, even after a seven-game win streak.  Granted they're not as vitriolic as their Cardinal counterparts, Cubs fans apparently do 80% of the talking in the NL Central when they're in contention.

2) To no one's surprise ("no one" as in those of us who actually watch baseball as opposed to simply reading the cue cards behind the camera) the Pirates have gone from 1st place to 4th place & 10 games behind in a matter of two weeks.  The entire nationally syndicated sports show docket was dominated by the "are the Pirates for real - you bet they are" storyline just after the All-Star break.  Not so much anymore.

3) SE Wisconsin sports talk is now equating Cards/Brewers with Packers/Vikings (i.e. a rivalry that emerges only when the Bears - or in this case, the Cubs - go into hibernation).  That would be a great analogy if it weren't for the fact that the Vikings and Bears aren't the long-time rivals in this love triangle.

4) Two meaningful series start tomorrow: STL/MIL & CLE/DET.  Nationally, the former will be overshadowed by the latter, and both will be overshadowed by either a) A-Rod's Pokergate, b) "When will Strasburg be called up," or c) both. 

That is, of course, unless Tony gets a hankerin' for some three-bean salad and a benches-clearing brawl ensues, which is relatively likely at this point... I'd give it 7:2.

5) The Brewers and Cardinals play an almost identical remaining schedule (in terms of series' opponents).  The only difference: Brewers play the Fish in September while the Cards play the Braves.  Both teams should continue the current trend by beating-up on opponents for the last eight weeks.

6) Brewers have three open dates in September, the last one coming before a season-ending 6-game homestand against the Fish and Bucs.  The Cards have two open dates, the last being the 15th, just before @PHI, NYM, CHC, @HOU.

Aforementioned schedules - with the exception of Philly (home for Brewers, road for Cards) - are quite favorable.... no teams over .500 for the Brewers outside the Cards series, only Atlanta for the Cards.  Speaking of which, if the Cards sweep the Braves, Atlanta may very well lose its grip on the Wild Card (or fall further behind by that point).  If the Braves sweep the Cards, the Brewers solidify their chances of winning the division.  Either way, that series looks quite beneficial for the Brewers' playoff chances at this point.

And since I've breached the topic of October, it's worth pointing out that assuming no one misses a start and no makeup games played outside their currently scheduled series, the Brewers' rotation is lined up so that:

 a. St Louis will see Gallardo & Wolf 3x, Marcum twice & Narveson once, but no Greinke.
 b. Narveson will be the odd-man out in the 4-game series against Philly.
 c. Wolf & Gallardo are the only pitchers who have a remaining opponent W/L pct over .500 (.514 & .513, respectively).
 d. Narveson has the weakest opp. W/L pct - .453.
 e. Wolf is lined up to pitch game 162.  On normal rest, Gallardo, Greinke & Marcum are lined up to start in a potential playoff rotation.

I'm not sure anything could be termed "ideal" when it comes to the unknowns of September baseball, but that's about as ideal as it gets for the Brewers.  Barring a collapse - which is certainly possible, although not as probable as recent history - things are looking pretty good for the Crew.

[dwaderoy2004]

Greinke been pitching very well....as he has been all season.  Luck starting to even out though as his ERA drops steadily towards 4.00.

[LON]

As much as I wouldn't mind Pujols getting ear-holed (well, I don't really want them to throw at his head)...the last time the Brewers got into this "You hit us, we hit you" thing it didn't work out so well...just beat them.

[GGGG]

And yet, Packers training camp news is still the first sports story on Milwaukee area newscasts.  (At least last week it was.)

[reinko]

Are you kidding me?! You think it was Felix's FIP and xFIP that won him the Cy Young? It wasn't his league-leading ERA, IP and H/9? How about his 1.057 WHIP, 6 CG or 232 Ks? Did those have anything to do with it? And, oh by the way, those are actual stats, not theoretical numbers to show how lucky or unlucky he may or may not have been.

What do you want to bet that ZG's actual ERA is lower than 4.00 at season's end?

Still taking bets?