NL Central Pissing Match - 2011

[Benny B]

If you guys want to continue talking about 2010, that's fine.  But I'd rather talk about the current season.

My predictions for 2011:

* Cincy isn't going to repeat their 2010 performance.
* Pujols has no desire to leave St. Louis and will sign an extension mid-season once he realizes that he has become a major distraction (yes, it will take him that long to figure this out)
* Milwaukee will do what they do best... jump out to an early division lead only to give it up in August.
* Chicago's fate rests upon which Zambrano decides to show up this year.  Of course, neither Zambrano will be pitching in October (at least in a Cubs uniform),
* Houston will show flashes of greatness and be a thorn in the side of divisional opponents, but they will have the worst out-of-division record in baseball.
* Everyone on Pittsburgh's Sept 15 roster will be making under $478,000.

[robmufan]

Speaking of contracts...why would the Brewers pay Rickie Weeks 39 million over 4 years?  I think they overpaid a little bit!

[wadesworld]

Speaking of contracts...why would the Brewers pay Rickie Weeks 39 million over 4 years?  I think they overpaid a little bit!

Disagree completely.  Rickie is an absolute stud.  This was a great deal.

[shiloh26]

Disagree completely.  Rickie is an absolute stud.  This was a great deal.

I also thought it was pricey, but only because of Rickie's injury history. He has the potential to outperform that contract, as I think last year is a pretty good picture (i.e. was not an aberration) of what he will do consistently if he is health. 

Overall, a core of Weeks, Braun, and Gallardo, and Hart, who are all now signed at least through '13 is not bad at all.  Wish we had a stud up and comer to replace Prince at 1B, though.

[Hards Alumni]

I also thought it was pricey, but only because of Rickie's injury history. He has the potential to outperform that contract, as I think last year is a pretty good picture (i.e. was not an aberration) of what he will do consistently if he is health. 

Overall, a core of Weeks, Braun, and Gallardo, and Hart, who are all now signed at least through '13 is not bad at all.  Wish we had a stud up and comer to replace Prince at 1B, though.

First base is the most replaceable position in baseball.

I am not worried.

For the record I am totally happy with what the Brewers are going to be paying Rickie.  I just hope we get 2010 Rickie.

[MUBurrow]

i just hope we get 4 years of Rickie.  even bad Rickie at least gets on base, so that bodes well.  Im certainly glad that the 5th year is an option, but I like the length too. I'm always hesitant of long term deals to speed guys, but no way his speed should be waning by the end of this deal.  So the only question is his health.  I wouldn't hate it if he didn't get hit by his usual number of pitches this year - can't afford one to the elbow now that he's getting paid.

Another note I was thinking about today.  That Braun deal is not only a team friendly deal, but a team defining deal.  Braun isnt signed so team friendly, do we lock Rickie up to this?  How about Hart or Gallardo? 

[shiloh26]

First base is the most replaceable position in baseball.

I am not worried.

For the record I am totally happy with what the Brewers are going to be paying Rickie.  I just hope we get 2010 Rickie.

I really think we will, with health. He started off 2009 in the same way before the injury.  His OBP has been very high consistently in his career so there is no red flag there. Although his batting average crept up from '08 and '07, his batting average on balls in play for those two years were astoundingly low, even though his slugging was pretty consistent.  I take that to mean that he wasn't producing weak outs more those years, he was hitting it at people.  Basically, this all means that I think he did not produce above what he is normally capable of last year.  Also, he's entering into the prime of his career at 28, so there is no reason to think he wont maintain that level of play over the course of a 4-5 year contract.

Edit: Link: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksri01-bat.shtml

I marveled over that Braun deal from day 1.  I mean, it didn't take a swing expert, anyone with eyes could see that he could just plain hit.  It looked like he was placing the ball with a tennis racket sometimes that first year and a half.  I remember being surprised and incredibly happy that he signed such a reasonable long term deal.  Don't get a player like that who will be happy with a contract like that too often.  If we don't lock him down like that, I'm not sure we take on a slightly riskier deal like Rickie's.  Maybe we'd be desperate to keep Prince if Braun doesn't sign that deal, I'm really not sure where the Brewers would be.

[GGGG]

First base is the most replaceable position in baseball.

I am not worried.

Which is exactly why the Cardinals would be monumentally stupid to agree to Pujols contract demands.  The Brewers would need to find some power from the left-hand side of the plate, but even taking a lower level FA would be better than giving Prince some of the money that is being thrown around.

[Ari Gold]

My concern with Rickie's contract is his health. He's really only had 2 good seasons and they are pretty far apart. if we can get 2010 Rickie Weeks for the next 4 years, it'll look like a great contract. If not he's Suppan #2.

Personally I think The Brewers have the best starting 3 pitchers in the NL (yes better than the Phils) because -besides the obvious YoGa and Zach- Shaun Marcum went 13-8 with a 3.64 last year and 9-7 with a 3.38 in 2009 in the AL East. The NL Central isn't as strong of a hitting division. Marcum's numbers could be even better.  Mark Rodgers has the potential to be come in and be a solid #4 pitcher for the crew.
 
Bettancourt is not a long term answer at shortstop.

At some point, next season or beyond, Corey Hart will move to 1st base (he has the stride to scoop Week's bad throws) if we can't keep fielder.

Other Predictions for the rest of the Central:
the Reds don't repeat their success
Pujols leaves the Cardinals, for the Royals.
Cubs finish 3rd in the division
Pirates could still be last, but their two new pitchers should raise some eyebrows

Rest of the NL:
Bryce Harper will be referred to as "a unnatural carnal knowledgeing douchebag" by at least one person on ESPN live. -the nickname will stick.

[reinko]

Rest of the NL:
Bryce Harper will be referred to as "a fracking douchebag" by at least one person on ESPN live. -the nickname will stick.

You are kidding right?  He looks SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO cool.

[drewm88]

Deadspin posted this yesterday morning:

We're but minutes away from Albert Pujols's self-imposed deadline for signing a contract extension. This means that if the Cardinals don't come back with a whopper of a last-minute offer, it's all but inevitable that he'll sign with the Cubs in the offseason for eight years, $250 million, shatter his kneecap next May, and never be the same player again. No one wants this to happen.

Whole post is here: http://deadspin.com/#!5761968/welcome-to-albertgeddon

[TallTitan34]

I predict Marcum will be better than Greinke.

The Cubs pitching will be fine.  They have good rotation who most of the year was leading the majors in quality starts without Garza (unsure where they finished):

1) Garza
2) Dempster
3) Zambrano
4) Wells
5) Cashner, Marshall, Silva, Wellemeyer, Samardzija, etc.

And decent pen:

7th) Wood
8th) Guzman
9th) Marmol

It is the offense that will make or break them. 

[Benny B]

First base is the most replaceable position in baseball.

I am not worried.

For the record I am totally happy with what the Brewers are going to be paying Rickie.  I just hope we get 2010 Rickie.

That is also the most overlooked fact in baseball.

I sincerely hope Pujols cons the Cardinals into signing him for 8 years/$250M and that Prince signs for 7y/$210M with the Cubs.  If that happens, I would bat Counsell lead-off against those two as long as I could and then make him the hitting coach when he hangs up his cleats.

The Brewers could start a second tally for "Forced E-3's" on the Citgo Pump, and watch that thing light up for years to come against CHC and STL.

[TallTitan34]

That is also the most overlooked fact in baseball.

I sincerely hope Pujols cons the Cardinals into signing him for 8 years/$250M and that Prince signs for 7y/$210M with the Cubs.  If that happens, I would bat Counsell lead-off against those two as long as I could and then make him the hitting coach when he hangs up his cleats.

The Brewers could start a second tally for "Forced E-3's" on the Citgo Pump, and watch that thing light up for years to come against CHC and STL.

You expect 40 year old Craig Counsell to be playing that many more years?

[jmayer1]

That is also the most overlooked fact in baseball.

I sincerely hope Pujols cons the Cardinals into signing him for 8 years/$250M and that Prince signs for 7y/$210M with the Cubs.  If that happens, I would bat Counsell lead-off against those two as long as I could and then make him the hitting coach when he hangs up his cleats.

The Brewers could start a second tally for "Forced E-3's" on the Citgo Pump, and watch that thing light up for years to come against CHC and STL.

???

What is this post supposed to mean?

[🏀]

Personally I think The Brewers have the best starting 3 pitchers in the NL (yes better than the Phils)

Its good to have an early frontrunner for the Homer Comment  of the Year Award.

[robmufan]

I don't want the facts to get in the way of Ari's good story...but lets be honest, Marcum is still young, and has the potential to do great things, but he is in no way going to give the Brewers the numbers they need to be better than the phillies 3!

ERA:
2006: 5.06
2007: 4.13
2008: 3.39
2010: 3.64

WHIP:
2006:1.596
2007:1.245
2008:1.163
2010:1.147

I am also guessing Oswalt will be able to out-duel Yovanni for the #2 spot.

[Benny B]

???

What is this post supposed to mean?

It was sarcasm, based on the idea that Craig Counsell is a left-handed, pull hitter who hits a lot of hard ground balls towards the first baseman.  It was also me implying that Pujols & Fielder aren't going to be stocking up on Gold Gloves over the next decade.

[TallTitan34]

Pujols is a pretty good defensive player.  It just gets overlooked by his offense.

[MUBurrow]

I'm a huge Brewers guy - but I'm not as convinced as others that Marcum will improve all that much since moving from the AL East.  Of all starters with more than x (i cant remember exactly how many) starts, he threw a lower % of fastballs than any SP in baseball last year.  I think his lack of heat lowers his ceiling a bit.  Certainly doesn't knock him as a great and very smart pitcher, but I think that the lack of variety makes him a little more hittable even on good days.  I still think he's a fantastic pickup, but I think his expectations are getting overinflated a bit, given what he is.

[shiloh26]

I'm a huge Brewers guy - but I'm not as convinced as others that Marcum will improve all that much since moving from the AL East.  Of all starters with more than x (i cant remember exactly how many) starts, he threw a lower % of fastballs than any SP in baseball last year.  I think his lack of heat lowers his ceiling a bit.  Certainly doesn't knock him as a great and very smart pitcher, but I think that the lack of variety makes him a little more hittable even on good days.  I still think he's a fantastic pickup, but I think his expectations are getting overinflated a bit, given what he is.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/shaun-marcum-whip-it-good/

Interesting statistical article about what Marcum could be able to do this year.  Basically, these guys have developed a formula to predict WHIP, and Marcum was predicted for another sub-1.20 WHIP season prior to being traded... and maybe that is just his ceiling, but maybe his ceiling goes up facing no DH and no Yankees/Rays lineups (to be fair, also no Orioles lineups).  My favorite rosy stat, however: Take out starts vs. the Rays, Yankees, and Sox last year and his ERA was 2.74 and WHIP 1.08.  I think you're right that he's not all of the sudden going to be Tim Lincecum, but the decidedly weaker NL central competition provides some built in upside (I think the Pirates improve quite a bit, but the Astros get significantly worse, so we'll call that a wash... Cubs are perhaps marginally better, Cards and Reds are the same teams as last year). 

You're right, he's not an overpowering pitcher, he just throws good strikes.  I don't think he becomes a Cy Young candidate by any means just by switching divisions, but I definitely think that there is strong reason to believe his stats uptick. 

[🏀]

I don't want the facts to get in the way of Ari's good story...but lets be honest, Marcum is still young, and has the potential to do great things, but he is in no way going to give the Brewers the numbers they need to be better than the phillies 3!

ERA:
2006: 5.06
2007: 4.13
2008: 3.39
2010: 3.64

WHIP:
2006:1.596
2007:1.245
2008:1.163
2010:1.147

I am also guessing Oswalt will be able to out-duel Yovanni for the #2 spot.

You mean Oswalt will be able to out duel Marcum for the #3 spot?

Halladay is much better than Greinke.
Cliff Lee is better than Yovanni.
Oswalt is more established and probably better than Marcum.

[TallTitan34]

Looks like Adam Wainwright is out for the year with Tommy John surgery.

Cubs and Brewers fans rejoice!

[wadesworld]

See ya, Cards!

And then Poopholes can leave for some other squad.  Even if it is the Cubs...might make them contenders for something for a while, but we all know they'll figure out a way to mess it up!

[jmayer1]

See ya, Cards!

And then Poopholes can leave for some other squad.  Even if it is the Cubs...might make them contenders for something for a while, but we all know they'll figure out a way to mess it up!

This really sucks for the Cards if he does end up needing surgery, but they'll still compete for the division.