Wojo's Threshold

[bilsu]

There are definitely crazy things that happen in the NCAA tourney and the significance of them are best judged after they occur.  To pre-dismiss results or lack of results doesn’t make sense to me. 

Said a different way a couple college coach’s legacy is built in March.  You must win eventually (let alone make some runs) to have a chance at a positive legacy.

How many champions since the UCLA dominance would of won the NCAA title again, if they immediately replayed the same tournament. I doubt Virginia would of won the NCAA tournament again, if they immediately replayed it.
Winning the championship is some what of a crap shoot. You need to be good enough to compete against the best and then have things break your way.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

How many champions since the UCLA dominance would of won the NCAA title again, if they immediately replayed the same tournament. I doubt Virginia would of won the NCAA tournament again, if they immediately replayed it.
Winning the championship is some what of a crap shoot. You need to be good enough to compete against the best and then have things break your way.

Winning any individual 50/50 game is of course uncertain.  That was not my point....its more the last sentence.  In this case we are not talking about the final two team clash...we are talking about winning the first game.

[Its DJOver]

Winning any individual 50/50 game is of course uncertain.  That was not my point....its more the last sentence.  In this case we are not talking about the final two team clash...we are talking about winning the first game.

This is about where I'm at.  Wojo is 0-2 in tournament games with 2 blowouts.  Cause for concern? Yes.  Grounds for dismissal? IMO, no.  Could he go 0-3 and keep his job? Probably. 0-4? Probably not, but a high buyout might save him for a year. 0-5? Immediate termination.  At some point "crapshoot" has to turn into "this inability to win a tournament game is a very serious problem that no amount of good recruiting or lack of off-court issues an make up for".  Some people are already at this level.  The silent majority does not appear to be there. Yet.

[Dawson Rental]

I think our ceiling will depend on how much rest Markus Howard gets during the conference season.

I don't have high hopes for Howard getting rest. I don't have high hopes for our NCAA tourney success this year. I really hope that Wojo figures it out and that I'm wrong.

When Markus got hurt last year; who was the point guard?  Oh yeah, Sam Hauser.  Markus will get more rest this year, he's got a solid running mate and Greg and Symir in reserve.

[Cheeks]

This is about where I'm at.  Wojo is 0-2 in tournament games with 2 blowouts.  Cause for concern? Yes.  Grounds for dismissal? IMO, no.  Could he go 0-3 and keep his job? Probably. 0-4? Probably not, but a high buyout might save him for a year. 0-5? Immediate termination.  At some point "crapshoot" has to turn into "this inability to win a tournament game is a very serious problem that no amount of good recruiting or lack of off-court issues an make up for".  Some people are already at this level.  The silent majority does not appear to be there. Yet.

If we were 0-2 and lost both games by 9 points would the doubters care any differently?  I say a resounding no way.  Lose by 1, lose by 20, lose by 10, people aren’t going to be happy.

[Lennys Tap]

If we were 0-2 and lost both games by 9 points would the doubters care any differently?  I say a resounding no way.  Lose by 1, lose by 20, lose by 10, people aren’t going to be happy.

I'm certainly unhappy when we lose on the big stage - but I know that sooner or later in the tournament it's almost inevitable. What's not inevitable is not showing up, not competing. So when we get run out of the gym by a team were supposed to be just as good as (S Carolina) or by one we're supposed to be better than (Murray St) I'm a lot more unhappy. And when it happens in the first round, I'm also more unhappy. Maybe that's just me but I seriously doubt it.

[Cheeks]

I'm certainly unhappy when we lose on the big stage - but I know that sooner or later in the tournament it's almost inevitable. What's not inevitable is not showing up, not competing. So when we get run out of the gym by a team were supposed to be just as good as (S Carolina) or by one we're supposed to be better than (Murray St) I'm a lot more unhappy. And when it happens in the first round, I'm also more unhappy. Maybe that's just me but I seriously doubt it.

End of the day it is a L.  I guess it is how people live their life.  We made a Final Four by going through a gauntlet including knocking off the #1 team and another top 5 team....people still bitch how we lost the Final Four game.  Should we have lost the Elite 8 game by 1 at the buzzer to spare us the “shame” of losing in the Final Four?

It’s beyond silly.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I'm certainly unhappy when we lose on the big stage - but I know that sooner or later in the tournament it's almost inevitable. What's not inevitable is not showing up, not competing. So when we get run out of the gym by a team were supposed to be just as good as (S Carolina) or by one we're supposed to be better than (Murray St) I'm a lot more unhappy. And when it happens in the first round, I'm also more unhappy. Maybe that's just me but I seriously doubt it.

Adding, how we ended the BE season last, down double digits at home for most of the 2nd vs. PSU in the NIT. There is always some solid reason around the crapshoot loss...but this year I expect the crapshoots to break MUs way. This can be a very good match-up roster.

[Shooter McGavin]

but this year I expect the crapshoots to break MUs way. This can be a very good match-up roster.

Hope you are right Dr. B!

[WhiteTrash]

I believe in the crapshoot, along with Jay, Mike, Roy, Mark, Tom, and so many other coaches.  So no, I will go with getting into the dance, and then see what happens. 


Doc, what if we got in as a 8 seed and a 16 knocked off the 1 in our bracket.  We make the Sweet 16 as a result...does that convince you, or is it the luck of the draw?  Way too much randomness in the tournament on who you play, where, etc...situations where some teams are given a gift, other situations where you play a double digit that goes all the way to the Final Four. 

Get us in the tournament, and then we see what happens.

I think the "crapshoot' theory has some truth to it but not a whole lot. Question: Does Roy Williams keep his job if he goes 0-10 in the next ten tournaments? Or are the people of UNC ignorant about college basketball?

[Herman Cain]

I think the "crapshoot' theory has some truth to it but not a whole lot. Question: Does Roy Williams keep his job if he goes 0-10 in the next ten tournaments? Or are the people of UNC ignorant about college basketball?

Matt Doherty got booted from UNC after missing two years in a row.

In Roys whole career including Kansas he has only missed the tournament twice. Every year he did make he won at least once.

I think UNC would give Roy another year beyond Doherty but that would be a highly debate topic at his current age. 

[Lennys Tap]

End of the day it is a L.  I guess it is how people live their life.  We made a Final Four by going through a gauntlet including knocking off the #1 team and another top 5 team....people still bitch how we lost the Final Four game.  Should we have lost the Elite 8 game by 1 at the buzzer to spare us the “shame” of losing in the Final Four?

It’s beyond silly.

The 30+ point loss to Kansas was embarrassing - but mitigated a great deal by the run that preceded it, especially vs Pitt and UK.

Zero, nothing, nada like that re S. Carolina and Murray St. That was pure, unadulterated, unmitigated embarrassment. Even most slurpers acknowledged that.

[WhiteTrash]

Matt Doherty got booted from UNC after missing two years in a row.

In Roys whole career including Kansas he has only missed the tournament twice. Every year he did make he won at least once.

I think UNC would give Roy another year beyond Doherty but that would be a highly debate topic at his current age.

Herman, I think you are right. I don't think the people of UNC would buy the "crapshoot" theory even with Roy's impressive resume. But then again, maybe UNC leadership is unsophisticated about college basketball and  do not understand what a crapshoot the tourney is. 

[MU82]

Matt Doherty got booted from UNC after missing two years in a row.

In Roys whole career including Kansas he has only missed the tournament twice. Every year he did make he won at least once.

I think UNC would give Roy another year beyond Doherty but that would be a highly debate topic at his current age.

There's a big difference between missing the tournament entirely -- especially 2x in a row at a place like UNC -- and not advancing (or not advancing "far enough").

During his tenure at Kansas, Roy was criticized for "not winning the big one." I believe the same was said about Dean Smith for quite some time. Lute Olsen regularly was criticized for early-round losses. Mark Few was criticized for failing to get Gonzaga out of the first weekend 11 times in 13 seasons (2002-14). Bobby Knight became just another d-bag bully when he stopped winning NCAA tournament games.

None of the above ever came close to getting fired for on-court failure, nor should they have.

Wojo, of course, has not yet proven to be in the same universe as any of those coaches. But at least he's been better than Doherty was an UNC (ducks for cover).

[The Lens]

The 30+ point loss to Kansas was embarrassing - but mitigated a great deal by the run that preceded it, especially vs Pitt and UK.

Zero, nothing, nada like that re S. Carolina and Murray St. That was pure, unadulterated, unmitigated embarrassment. Even most slurpers acknowledged that.

The 30+ point loss talk gained steam when this followed...

'04 NIT
'05 NIT
'06 1st round loss
'07 1st round loss
'08 2nd round loss to a team without a coach

[tower912]

I have said it, fluffy has said it.     Right now, Wojo is Crean without the final 4 run.     Can Wojo improve?

[Galway Eagle]

I have said it, fluffy has said it.     Right now, Wojo is Crean without the final 4 run.     Can Wojo improve?

and if he doesn't can he at least snag us a Final Four?

[willie warrior]

Who do you slurp?

Good coaches, not shlubs still trying to learn how to coach, and already reaching their plateau.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I have said it, fluffy has said it.     Right now, Wojo is Crean without the final 4 run.     Can Wojo improve?

[Lennys Tap]

The 30+ point loss talk gained steam when this followed...

'04 NIT
'05 NIT
'06 1st round loss
'07 1st round loss
'08 2nd round loss to a team without a coach

+1

The Final Four "bump" didn't materialize until after TC left town.

[Herman Cain]

I have said it, fluffy has said it.     Right now, Wojo is Crean without the final 4 run.     Can Wojo improve?

I tend to think he is the inverse of Deane. Can recruit well but challenged by coaching. Records are very similar.

[Galway Eagle]

I tend to think he is the inverse of Deane. Can recruit well but challenged by coaching. Records are very similar.

I don't get this comparison. The trend lines are opposite each other as is level of competition.

[MU82]

I have said it, fluffy has said it.     Right now, Wojo is Crean without the final 4 run.     Can Wojo improve?

The above rings far more true than this:

I tend to think he is the inverse of Deane. Can recruit well but challenged by coaching. Records are very similar.

[Dr. Blackheart]

'08 2nd round loss to a team without a coach

I might add the first round game plan was assigned to a first year assistant who was going up against his old boss.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

If Wojo doesn’t win a NCAA tournament game this year he should be fired. The program has gone backwards under his leadership. There is zero enthusiasm, zero “buzz” and zero positivity come out of The Al. It’s all spin.

I’d be shocked if we make the NCAA.