Ellenson: One and Done or not?

[hdog1017]

If he's projected to be a top 10 pick, he'd be stupid to stay in school. 

[martyconlonontherun]

Pretty much where I am.  Doesn't have the quickness to guard a 4, certainly not a 3.  I'm not sure he has the range to pull a guy out consistently, which means he will have to do something mid range or down low, where that's going to be a chore.  Feels like not many minutes next year (if he goes) and not too much production.

I don't think anyone will disagree he will struggle as a rookie, cause, you know, he will be a 19/20 year old rookie. The question is do you think he will develop better with another year at Marquette being the man with slightly more minutes* or going to the pros to practice against grown, professional athletes every day in practice? And if so, is it enough improvement to bypass a year of salary (~$2.5M for 7th spot) that he probably won't make up unless he goes top 3 ($1.2m raise)?

*I say slightly since he will probably play more total minutes in the NBA due to the longer schedule.
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

[wadesworld]

Frank also stayed in school three years longer than Hank.

...and was still a far worse defender after those 3 extra years than Hank is. So what? Frank stayed in college 4 years longer than LeBron, 3 longer than Durant, 1 longer than Wade, 1 longer than Curry, etc.

[4everwarriors]

I'm starting to come to the conclusion that our fanbase is so unfamiliar with having a "one and done" type talent playing at Marquette University, that we have no idea what that talent looks like in action.   What did we all expect that the kid would come right in and AVERAGE a double-double???  (Oops, he is doing that).   

The pro game is completely different in so many ways than the college game....how one translates to the other is not clearly correlated and its why some guys who slay it in college can't make it in the NBA and why some who are good college players surprise in the pros (look no further than Wes).

The dude is amazing and he just turned 19.    The only "eye test" that matters is the ones being administered by NBA scouts...and they have him as a lottery pick.

D-league next year....seriously?

Solid Bro, hey?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'm starting to come to the conclusion that our fanbase is so unfamiliar with having a "one and done" type talent playing at Marquette University, that we have no idea what that talent looks like in action.   What did we all expect that the kid would come right in and AVERAGE a double-double???  (Oops, he is doing that).   

The pro game is completely different in so many ways than the college game....how one translates to the other is not clearly correlated and its why some guys who slay it in college can't make it in the NBA and why some who are good college players surprise in the pros (look no further than Wes).

The dude is amazing and he just turned 19.    The only "eye test" that matters is the ones being administered by NBA scouts...and they have him as a lottery pick.

D-league next year....seriously?

Didn't those same NBA scouts have other lottery picks that went to the D-League? 

Cameron Payne
Jeremy Lamb
Noah Vonleh
Jimmer Fredette
etc, etc


Did you know in the 2012 draft alone, of the 30 kids taken....33% were in the D-League within 2 months for at least some period of time.



Or guys like Luke Jackson who was a lottery pick and played all of 59 total games in the first three years of his career.

That being said, I don't think he goes to the D-League at all, but I do think he will have a learning curve for a few years.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Didn't those same NBA scouts have other lottery picks that went to the D-League? 

Cameron Payne
Jeremy Lamb
Noah Vonleh
Jimmer Fredette
etc, etc


Did you know in the 2012 draft alone, of the 30 kids taken....33% were in the D-League within 2 months for at least some period of time.



Or guys like Luke Jackson who was a lottery pick and played all of 59 total games in the first three years of his career.

That being said, I don't think he goes to the D-League at all, but I do think he will have a learning curve for a few years.

But but but LOTTERY PICK!!

[martyconlonontherun]

Didn't those same NBA scouts have other lottery picks that went to the D-League? 

Cameron Payne
Jeremy Lamb
Noah Vonleh
Jimmer Fredette
etc, etc


Did you know in the 2012 draft alone, of the 30 kids taken....33% were in the D-League within 2 months for at least some period of time.

Or guys like Luke Jackson who was a lottery pick and played all of 59 total games in the first three years of his career.

That being said, I don't think he goes to the D-League at all, but I do think he will have a learning curve for a few years.

Correct me if I'm wrong but i looked up the Dleague stats and I think Vonleh and Payne both only played 2 games. Lamb was the 14th, which is far different that the projected 7th pick of Ellenson. Ok, Jimmer just sucked.

If so, why is it viewed as a bad thing that Ellenson would spend a week or two in the Dleague? Both Payne and Vonleh are developing nicely. I think a year in the league really matured Vonleh and he is started to look useful on the court. Would another year at IU matured him as well? Who knows but I would rather have him hitting the learning curve early instead of playing an another year under Crean relying on his athleticism.

[Herman Cain]

Correct me if I'm wrong but i looked up the Dleague stats and I think Vonleh and Payne both only played 2 games. Lamb was the 14th, which is far different that the projected 7th pick of Ellenson. Ok, Jimmer just sucked.

If so, why is it viewed as a bad thing that Ellenson would spend a week or two in the Dleague? Both Payne and Vonleh are developing nicely. I think a year in the league really matured Vonleh and he is started to look useful on the court. Would another year at IU matured him as well? Who knows but I would rather have him hitting the learning curve early instead of playing an another year under Crean relying on his athleticism.

The Jimmer Fredette case is very relevant to Henry. Fredette is a prolific scorer but has a reputation for not being able to guard anyone. I have watched several of his D League games and the lack of D is what is holding him back. He is still a scoring machine and very fun to watch.

The defensive issue won't stop someone from drafting Henry but it will ultimately be what makes or breaks him at the next level.

[wadesworld]

I'm just wondering if the people who think a guy with the combination of skill and size of Hank will be playing in the D League next year are the same guys who were predicting 6 and 3 out of Hank at MU this year.

Some people really just don't understand the game of high level basketball.

[bamamarquettefan]

Yes, being a d-league player making 15k a year in hopes of a longshot bid eventually is nothing like having 10 million guaranteed over 3 years and being given a little time in the d-league to practice against much tougher competition than you would have played in college.

Of course I am hoping Henry stays, but if you are going in the first round it is only logical to go. NBA scouts are good at seeing where you will be at 22 years old once oro coaches have you full-time for a couple of years. It rarely makes logical sense to stay, but I hope he does!

[The Lens]

I'm just wondering if the people who think a guy with the combination of skill and size of Hank will be playing in the D League next year are the same guys who were predicting 6 and 3 out of Hank at MU this year.

Some people really just don't understand the game of high level basketball.

Not to mention, Henry has always played at the highest level he could (Team USA) and with success.  The NBA has been watching Henry since he was 15.  They're awaiting his arrival. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Correct me if I'm wrong but i looked up the Dleague stats and I think Vonleh and Payne both only played 2 games. Lamb was the 14th, which is far different that the projected 7th pick of Ellenson. Ok, Jimmer just sucked.

If so, why is it viewed as a bad thing that Ellenson would spend a week or two in the Dleague? Both Payne and Vonleh are developing nicely. I think a year in the league really matured Vonleh and he is started to look useful on the court. Would another year at IU matured him as well? Who knows but I would rather have him hitting the learning curve early instead of playing an another year under Crean relying on his athleticism.

No idea, I was merely offering evidence that the suggestion he could be in the D-League (for however short or long duration) is hardly crazy talk.

[martyconlonontherun]

The Jimmer Fredette case is very relevant to Henry. Fredette is a prolific scorer but has a reputation for not being able to guard anyone. I have watched several of his D League games and the lack of D is what is holding him back. He is still a scoring machine and very fun to watch.

The defensive issue won't stop someone from drafting Henry but it will ultimately be what makes or breaks him at the next level.

Interesting argument that you are making. Comparing a 19 yr old 6'10" Freshman PF to a 22 yr old 6'2" SG Senior.

Also, Jimmer is a career 41% shooter (That would put him in the bottom third of all NBAers right now) and <1.5 Ast/to. He is what he is, a great scorer against lesser opponents in the D-league and college. Put him in the pros and he just can't get off the shots he wants. Ellenson's game translates very well and he has legit size. Fredette is up there with the Draymond Green comparisons for me scratching my head.

[GGGG]

The Jimmer Fredette case is very relevant to Henry. Fredette is a prolific scorer but has a reputation for not being able to guard anyone. I have watched several of his D League games and the lack of D is what is holding him back. He is still a scoring machine and very fun to watch.

The defensive issue won't stop someone from drafting Henry but it will ultimately be what makes or breaks him at the next level.

The Jimmer case is not at all relevant to Henry.  Jimmer was a volume shooting SG is college who wasn't particularly tall or skilled for the NBA game.

Henry is a 6'10" forward.

Good comparison.   

[wadesworld]

The Jimmer case is not at all relevant to Henry.  Jimmer was a volume shooting SG is college who wasn't particularly tall or skilled for the NBA game.

Henry is a 6'10" forward.

Good comparison.   

Yeah that's why such a large number of these posts that claim Hank doesn't have the skills, isn't ready, won't contribute for at least 3 years, could use multiple more years at MU, etc. are not even worth arguing against.  When someone makes an argument like Hank is a worse pro prospect than Jimmer, the fact of the matter is that person simply doesn't understand what makes up a quality NBA player.

[Goose]

wadesworld

Well said!!

[Windyplayer]

I'm guilty at grasping at straws here, too. Fact of the matter is if I had a rooting interest in another school, I wouldn't think twice about whether Ellenson bolts for the League from a purely rational standpoint. That being said, objectively, there's still a chance he stays given familial ties.

[bilsu]

Ellenson would improve his game, if he came back for his sophomore year. However, his game would improve more practicing with NBA players. The only reason to comeback is that he likes being in college more than he would like making millions..

[Nukem2]

Ellenson would improve his game, if he came back for his sophomore year. However, his game would improve more practicing with NBA players. The only reason to comeback is that he likes being in college more than he would like making millions..

Other reasons would include playing with his brother for another year while their parents could also see the together along with the chance of playing in the NCAAs.  But, I'm not holding my breath on a potential decision to stay.

[Marcus92]

But, I'm not holding my breath on a potential decision to stay.

I hope nobody's holding their breath related to any statement or argument made as part of this thread.

For starters, we won't know the answer to any of these questions at least until the NBA Draft (assuming Henry declares after this season) — more likely well into next season or even beyond (enough time to determine what kind of success Henry has at the NBA level).

That's a long time to hold your breath.

Beyond that, there seems to be an endless supply of "reasons" and "proof" on all sides of this inane topic. The posts continue, the "evidence" stacks up page after page, to what end? It just keeps going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on.

If this thread never ends, how will be able to determine the "truth" of any of the infinite arguments offered here? A profound question, certainly one for the philosophers to ponder.

17 pages of this. Sheesh.

[GGGG]

Beyond that, there seems to be an endless supply of "reasons" and "proof" on all sides of this inane topic. The posts continue, the "evidence" stacks up page after page, to what end? It just keeps going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on.

This could be Scoop's mission statement.

[JakeBarnes]

This could be Scoop's mission statement.

I hate mission statements. Can't we just do like a motto or something?

[Marcus92]

This could be Scoop's mission statement.

True. But after reading the same points over and over again, if you haven't convinced anyone, seems like it's time to move on. I'm amazed that anyone is still interested in this topic or honestly feels like they have something new to offer.

If it hasn't all been said many times over in 17 pages, what will it take?

From a broader perspective, what is it about this topic that generated so much more interest than your average new post? Some here seem obsessed with the hypothetical subject of what Henry will or won't do months or years from now — right in the middle of the season, when there is actual, for-real basketball being played, games with real impact on Marquette's current season, and with a real postseason in the balance.

I don't get it.

[GGGG]

True. But after reading the same points over and over again, if you haven't convinced anyone, seems like it's time to move on. I'm amazed that anyone is still interested in this topic or honestly feels like they have something new to offer.

This one might actually be better.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

True. But after reading the same points over and over again, if you haven't convinced anyone, seems like it's time to move on. I'm amazed that anyone is still interested in this topic or honestly feels like they have something new to offer.

If it hasn't all been said many times over in 17 pages, what will it take?

From a broader perspective, what is it about this topic that generated so much more interest than your average new post? Some here seem obsessed with the hypothetical subject of what Henry will or won't do months or years from now — right in the middle of the season, when there is actual, for-real basketball being played, games with real impact on Marquette's current season, and with a real postseason in the balance.

I don't get it.

You weren't here for the Dawson vs. Derrick debates were you? Ellenson's one and done status is NOTHING compared to the nonsense in those threads. And I say that knowing that I was one of the main contributors.