Ellenson: One and Done or not?

[Marcus92]

You weren't here for the Dawson vs. Derrick debates were you? Ellenson's one and done status is NOTHING compared to the nonsense in those threads. And I say that knowing that I was one of the main contributors.

Maybe there's some irresistible force or underlying principle at work — that a message board always requires one inexplicable topic that rolls up post after post, month after month.

I've been following Scoop for years, but rarely felt like contributing anything until this season. Yes, I remember the Dawson vs. Derrick debates; didn't interest me in the least. The choice between two below-average point guards (no matter how hard they play) isn't a choice at all. Nothing anyone could say on the matter would change my mind on that.

[Herman Cain]

Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here. 

I just don't think he'll see the court much next year.  Maybe even the year after.  Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are. 

Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA.  Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now.  ABUSED.

He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game.  But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.   

Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star.  I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team.  I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player.  In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.   

I agree with all of this. I think a very relevant example to consider when considering Henrys trajectory post MU  is the Jimmer Fredette case. He just called back up the NBA. He has all the same questions surrounding him that Henry does. He played a different postion but his strengths were quite good and he was highly acclaimed and a lottery pick.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14807650/new-york-knicks-sign-guard-jimmer-fredette

[Silkk the Shaka]

I agree with all of this. I think a very relevant example to consider when considering Henrys trajectory post MU  is the Jimmer Fredette case. He just called back up the NBA. He has all the same questions surrounding him that Henry does. He played a different postion but his strengths were quite good and he was highly acclaimed and a lottery pick.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14807650/new-york-knicks-sign-guard-jimmer-fredette

No.

If you don't understand the difference between where a player is at coming out as a freshman vs. where a player is at coming out as a senior and the trajectory of each's development post-college (on the whole), then you truly don't understand the college-to-NBA paradigm at all.

You're comparing concerns about Henry as a frosh vs. concerns about Jimmer as a senior. It's not a good comparison in the least.

[GGGG]

I agree with all of this. I think a very relevant example to consider when considering Henrys trajectory post MU  is the Jimmer Fredette case. He just called back up the NBA. He has all the same questions surrounding him that Henry does. He played a different postion but his strengths were quite good and he was highly acclaimed and a lottery pick.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14807650/new-york-knicks-sign-guard-jimmer-fredette

It is a terrible comparison.  Different ages.  Different position. 

If you are looking for a relevant example for Henry that might make people wary, read this scouting report from back in 2007 on Spencer Hawes. 

"Height/Weight: 6-11, 250
Age: 19

Strengths/weaknesses: He really does a good job shooting the ball. He's very knowledgeable about the game and knows how to play as part a team, which will make it easy for him to fit in. Obviously, he has good size; it's a matter of whether his speed and quickness allow him to succeed at the next level. His speed and quickness are going to be a big question. We wouldn't take him, but for certain teams it doesn't matter. It just depends on the team.

Best case/worst case: I see his best-case scenario is being a solid starter in the league. I really don't see him as an All-Star-caliber player, but I would say that he could be a starting center on a good team, a very good team depending on what's around him. The thing that just might hold him back is that it's going to take some time for him to develop. It's not only the speed and quickness that will be different, but physically he's not as developed as he needs to be. If he can do those things and get stronger, he'll be fine. He could wind up as a backup center, but I think he'll have a career in the league."


Now Hawes has had a nice career but hardly stellar.  He's in his ninth year in the league and has made $33 million.  Big guys like Hawes, and like Ellenson, can stick in the league for a long time because of their size and their skills.

Mediocre shooting guards like Jimmer are a dime a dozen.

[Herman Cain]

It is a terrible comparison.  Different ages.  Different position. 

If you are looking for a relevant example for Henry that might make people wary, read this scouting report from back in 2007 on Spencer Hawes. 

"Height/Weight: 6-11, 250
Age: 19

Strengths/weaknesses: He really does a good job shooting the ball. He's very knowledgeable about the game and knows how to play as part a team, which will make it easy for him to fit in. Obviously, he has good size; it's a matter of whether his speed and quickness allow him to succeed at the next level. His speed and quickness are going to be a big question. We wouldn't take him, but for certain teams it doesn't matter. It just depends on the team.

Best case/worst case: I see his best-case scenario is being a solid starter in the league. I really don't see him as an All-Star-caliber player, but I would say that he could be a starting center on a good team, a very good team depending on what's around him. The thing that just might hold him back is that it's going to take some time for him to develop. It's not only the speed and quickness that will be different, but physically he's not as developed as he needs to be. If he can do those things and get stronger, he'll be fine. He could wind up as a backup center, but I think he'll have a career in the league."


Now Hawes has had a nice career but hardly stellar.  He's in his ninth year in the league and has made $33 million.  Big guys like Hawes, and like Ellenson, can stick in the league for a long time because of their size and their skills.

Mediocre shooting guards like Jimmer are a dime a dozen.

Yes the example you gave is good.

I think people are misinterpreting my point. All I really saying is being a lottery pick does not necessarily imply a guarantee or stamp of approval. If a player has holes in their game the holes will be exposed. It is easy to see that about Jimmer today. At the time he was a number 10 pick .

In golf there are lots of guys who pile up wins in the lesser tournaments but when they get to the Majors the holes in their games are exposed.

At the end of the day Henry is a well coordinated 6-11 kid and that will carry him a long way .  It remains to be seen what his ceiling will be .  For the sake of Marquette I want to see him do as well as possible.

[Jay Bee]

Also, Jimmer is a career 41% shooter (That would put him in the bottom third of all NBAers right now)

What relevance does a 41% career FG% have? What does comparing FG% of all NBA players do for you?

More than 40% of Jimmer's FGA's are 3 pointers. You want to compare his FG% to centers who rarely if ever attempt a three and mostly score within 5 feet from the bucket? Crazy.
---------------

As for Henry, I'd like him to take a serious look at insurance contracts out there. If he can get a one that he's comfortable with, come on back for one more year of fun at MU.

[martyconlonontherun]

Yes the example you gave is good.

I think people are misinterpreting my point. All I really saying is being a lottery pick does not necessarily imply a guarantee or stamp of approval. If a player has holes in their game the holes will be exposed. It is easy to see that about Jimmer today. At the time he was a number 10 pick .

In golf there are lots of guys who pile up wins in the lesser tournaments but when they get to the Majors the holes in their games are exposed.

At the end of the day Henry is a well coordinated 6-11 kid and that will carry him a long way .  It remains to be seen what his ceiling will be .  For the sake of Marquette I want to see him do as well as possible.

What is your point? You keep mentioning Ellenson as a Junior/Senior. So you are implying either: 1. He isn't good enough to get drafted in the lottery right now or 2. You think he will develop much better in colllege?

1. He's a lottery pick. 2. He will be "exposed" in the NBA and will force him to grow unlike being in college.

Is there some kind of shame of being drafted 10th and making $15M+ throughout his career being a lifelong bench guy? Or out of pride he should stick around MU and dominate for 4 years?

[martyconlonontherun]

What relevance does a 41% career FG% have? What does comparing FG% of all NBA players do for you?

More than 40% of Jimmer's FGA's are 3 pointers. You want to compare his FG% to centers who rarely if ever attempt a three and mostly score within 5 feet from the bucket? Crazy.
---------------

As for Henry, I'd like him to take a serious look at insurance contracts out there. If he can get a one that he's comfortable with, come on back for one more year of fun at MU.

I agree I probably should have sorted by position or made it TS% (For the record he has a below average eFG%-and that is supposed to be his elite skill) but for relevancy reread what I was quoting. He was saying Jimmer was only held back because he is a bad defender. I'm saying Jimmer was held back because he was an undersized SG, who wasn't efficient and below average PG skills PLUS a horrible defender----and came out as a senior. And he wanted to compare that guy to a freshman PF with legit NBA size?


He definitely needs an insurance policy if he comes back, but he still misses a year of salary ($2.5m) and a year of professional development.

[MU82]

There is zero reason to compare Jimmer and Henry. Zero. Apples and kumquats ... and Hank is the apple!

[VegasWarrior77]

Jack Goods
‏@GoodsOnSports
Henry Ellenson is No. 3 on Chad Ford's big board. Not bad. #mubb

#1 Ben Simmons LSU
#2 Brandon Ingram Duke

[wadesworld]

Jack Goods
‏@GoodsOnSports
Henry Ellenson is No. 3 on Chad Ford's big board. Not bad. #mubb

#1 Ben Simmons LSU
#2 Brandon Ingram Duke

#3 on the NBA D League Draft big board, right?  I mean, he was only going to get 6 and 3 as a freshman, be around at least 2 years and more likely 4, and play in the D League as a pro, no?  That's what I learned at Scoop, at least.

[wadesworld]

Oh, by the way, he gowne.

[The Lens]

FYI, In September of 2014, DraftExpress had him #9 in the 2016 Draft.  No one should be able to say that this snuck up on them.  Ever since Henry signed with us, he has been a projected One & Done Lottery Pick.

[WarriorPride68]

Jack Goods
‏@GoodsOnSports
Henry Ellenson is No. 3 on Chad Ford's big board. Not bad. #mubb

#1 Ben Simmons LSU
#2 Brandon Ingram Duke

[MUFlutieEffect]

4th as of now...  Simmons, Ingram, and Dragan Bender (Croatia)

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft

[ChicosBailBonds]

Jack Goods
‏@GoodsOnSports
Henry Ellenson is No. 3 on Chad Ford's big board. Not bad. #mubb

#1 Ben Simmons LSU
#2 Brandon Ingram Duke

Don't worry, when Chris Ford is wrong he'll rearrange it like he has in the past.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/1/25/7886991/chad-ford-nba-draft-espn-rankings-change

[ChicosBailBonds]

Draft Express has him slipping one spot to #8 and 5th best freshman

[The Lens]

Draft Express has him slipping one spot to #8 and 5th best freshman

That's a fair spot.  If I was a top 5 team, I'd be disappointed with landing Henry.

6-10 and I'd be wait & see. 

11+ and I would be very excited. 

[VegasWarrior77]

Don't worry, when Chris Ford is wrong he'll rearrange it like he has in the past.

So when Henry goes #1 he'll move Simmons, et al down....

[forgetful]

It is a terrible comparison.  Different ages.  Different position. 

If you are looking for a relevant example for Henry that might make people wary, read this scouting report from back in 2007 on Spencer Hawes. 

"Height/Weight: 6-11, 250
Age: 19

Strengths/weaknesses: He really does a good job shooting the ball. He's very knowledgeable about the game and knows how to play as part a team, which will make it easy for him to fit in. Obviously, he has good size; it's a matter of whether his speed and quickness allow him to succeed at the next level. His speed and quickness are going to be a big question. We wouldn't take him, but for certain teams it doesn't matter. It just depends on the team.

Best case/worst case: I see his best-case scenario is being a solid starter in the league. I really don't see him as an All-Star-caliber player, but I would say that he could be a starting center on a good team, a very good team depending on what's around him. The thing that just might hold him back is that it's going to take some time for him to develop. It's not only the speed and quickness that will be different, but physically he's not as developed as he needs to be. If he can do those things and get stronger, he'll be fine. He could wind up as a backup center, but I think he'll have a career in the league."


Now Hawes has had a nice career but hardly stellar.  He's in his ninth year in the league and has made $33 million.  Big guys like Hawes, and like Ellenson, can stick in the league for a long time because of their size and their skills.

Mediocre shooting guards like Jimmer are a dime a dozen.

Spencer Hawes is 7'1", 250. Henry is 6'10, 228. Spencer also had a 29" standing vertical, which I'd be shocked if Henry can beat. 

Hawes was actually more NBA ready than Henry.

Also, I want to be clear; Henry is definitely a lottery pick, and in my opinion is gone after this year.  I just also think he has a long way to go before being actually ready for the NBA.  I figure he will spend at least 1 year in the D-league and likely 2 more riding the pine, before seeing meaningful action.

[Herman Cain]

Draft Express has him slipping one spot to #8 and 5th best freshman

This is worth reading. Gives the plusses and minuses.

http://upsidemotor.com/2016/01/14/henry-ellenson-2016-nba-draft-scouting-report-marquette/

[Goose]

One intangible not mentioned is that HE has basketball moxie. He gets 11 boards a game and makes it look easy. He gets where the rebound is going.

On scoring side, he gets 16-20 points a game and they run no plays for him. If I were coach I would run all plays thru him and they run few, if any.

[The Lens]

One intangible not mentioned is that HE has basketball moxie. He gets 11 boards a game and makes it look easy. He gets where the rebound is going.

On scoring side, he gets 16-20 points a game and they run no plays for him. If I were coach I would run all plays thru him and they run few, if any.

I have read that rebounding, more so that scoring, is an accurate predictor of success at the next level.

[Goose]

Lens

The kid flat out rebounds every game and makes it look easy. David Boone is my favorite rebounder in MU history and he had to work for every board. HE makes it look easy every game.

[forgetful]

One intangible not mentioned is that HE has basketball moxie. He gets 11 boards a game and makes it look easy. He gets where the rebound is going.

On scoring side, he gets 16-20 points a game and they run no plays for him. If I were coach I would run all plays thru him and they run few, if any.

The latter point is just not true.  He has a usage rate of 25.4%.  They run nearly everything through him.

As for his rebounds, part of his rebounding (its 10, not 11) is due to more available rebounds in MU games.  He is 1st in the conference in total rebounds, but only 5th in terms of rebounding percentage.  Those statistics are also helped by the fact that MU has been leaving guards away from crashing the board, in order to possibly get some breaks.  It is also helped by him playing nearly 34 minutes per game.

HE is a good rebounder, but nowhere near great.