MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: brewcity77 on August 12, 2015, 02:15:08 PM
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I'm just curious what everyone's expectations are of Ellenson as he starts his career. While we all expect him to be good, do most people think this will be the only year he wears blue and gold, will he play out the string with his brother, or will he stay longer than Wally does?
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One and done, not necessarily because I expect him to dominate, but I could see him having a year like Looney at UCLA that lands him in the 1st round.
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The absolute only chance he stays for more than a year is if he wants to play out the rest of his brother's career with him.
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I think it all depends on his year. I think a 12/6 year means he's staying, yet a 15/7 game means he's gone.
A bucket + 1 isn't a lot when it comes down to it. I was surprised b andre drummond's decision to go pro, but it worked well for him. On the flip side Hank is expected to be an offensive game changer. 1-2 years could add the polishing that his game needs.
If there was a flip a coin option, I'd take it
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Can we please just enjoy this season first? Seriously, I can already see this board living in fear of Henry leaving after 1 year that we don't even enjoy what is in front of us.
That said, if he is as good as advertised (he looked it today), I don't see why he wouldn't be 1 and done. I'd go get paid - you never know what can happen injury wise. But, I for one, am going to enjoy him while he's here, rather than moan about him leaving early.
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Staying for two would be great.
But I hope he is 1-done, because that means he did/does something truly special this year.
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The thing that could keep him a second year is his strength and toughness. The downsides of his game today were being pushed around a bit, dribbling up too high, and finishing in traffic. If you take into account that his game is suited to Euro style, and he may get more physical play in the Big East, he may find that he needs more strength. I'm thinking in particular when he finishes, he starts out correctly oriented and gets bumped a bit and tried to adjust the ball in the right direction but lost some touch in the process. It would be awesome if he gained some strength and could impose his will a bit more on those short hooks and jumpers. Holding position in interior defense obviously benefits from greater strength as well. In my mind, that is the thing that might keep him an extra year, having a full offseason in the college strength training program and playing starter's minutes next year, rather than spending a rookie year on the bench if his pro coach doesn't think he's strong enough yet to finish at that level. (Yes you get paid even if you're on the bench but there is a perception that it is hard to recover from a bad rookie year.)
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I doubt he stays just to 'get better for the next level'. We know the NBA drafts guys based on potential and HE knows it as well. The only reason I could see HE staying is he isn't in a hurry to get there (liking college life/playing with Wally) or God forbid he gets injured hurting his 1st round status.
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The 06 Florida team came back, the 14 Kentucky team came back, Barnes and someone else that year came back. Anything can happen if he truly loves college ball and feels like he's a part of something special at MU.
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He's got show more mental toughness and a better shot.
Was his dad a tough player?
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what the f#ck is the point of this thread?
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what the f#ck is the point of this thread?
If you believe Henry Ellenson will be a one and done or not.
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He gone, ai na?
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He gone, ai na?
Roger, dot.
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The 06 Florida team came back, the 14 Kentucky team came back, Barnes and someone else that year came back. Anything can happen if he truly loves college ball and feels like he's a part of something special at MU.
People here act like nobody has ever stayed another year in college because they like it.
My gut feeling says 2 years for the Hankmeister.
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I put two years, but that is more wishful thinking than anything. Do you think he would go for guaranteed first round or is he thinking lottery?
Also, we need to remember to enjoy his time in the Blue and Gold (and White and Valor Blue).
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I think if Wally leaves MU and goes for the Olympics, Hank goes, but if Wally sticks around I can easily see the Ellenson bros together for one more year.
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I put two years, but that is more wishful thinking than anything. Do you think he would go for guaranteed first round or is he thinking lottery?
Also, we need to remember to enjoy his time in the Blue and Gold (and White and Valor Blue).
Henry will be a top 10 pick if he goes.
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Henry will be a top 10 pick if he goes.
If that's the case, let's hope he plays like it all year.
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If that's the case, let's hope he plays like it all year.
He could be an 11 and 5 guy and he'd be a top 10 pick.
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He could be an 11 and 5 guy and he'd be a top 10 pick.
That's what I mean. If he's going either way, I hope he puts up 25 and 10 a night, like he did today.
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what the f#ck is the point of this thread?
hear, hear, Crash!
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That's what I mean. If he's going either way, I hope he puts up 25 and 10 a night, like he did today.
Ahh gotcha. Well, I can certainly agree to that!
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Lets wait till he trashes Bucky in Madison, and relishes the moment. Putting fear in the heart of the Grinch twice, might compel him to stay two years.
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The Association is all about the playa's second contract. Just ax Butler or Crowder. If you're a sure fire first round pick, you'd be nuts to stick around and give it the old college try. #5 could realize in excess of 8 mil. in his rookie contract if the team extends his qualifyin' offer. He gone, ai na?
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Haven't looked at the poll results but anyone who votes 3 or more has some high grade meth on hand.
Legit a 0% chance he stays 3.
I'm just hoping he's a big fan of playing with Wally and stays 2.
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The Association is all about the playa's second contract. Just ax Butler or Crowder. If you're a sure fire first round pick, you'd be nuts to stick around and give it the old college try. #5 could realize in excess of 8 mil. in his rookie contract if the team extends his qualifyin' offer. He gone, ai na?
I think you probably have unrealistic expectations of Sandy Cohen.
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I am not sure how long he will stay but I have some high grade meth on hand so I voted 3 or more.
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Can we please just enjoy this season first? Seriously, I can already see this board living in fear of Henry leaving after 1 year that we don't even enjoy what is in front of us.
+1000
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The next Hiroshima on this board is Henry leaving.
Who knows, other than Henry, his family and his advisors? Here's hoping he gets a degree at Marquette and he's with us long enough to get his degree, play for us and enjoy us as much as we expect to enjoy him.
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I think if Wally leaves MU and goes for the Olympics, Hank goes, but if Wally sticks around I can easily see the Ellenson bros together for one more year.
No Need for Wally to LEAVE for the Olympics, as the High Jump competition will be done by August 16th...
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Henry could get hurt for the season and still get drafted in the first round. How he plays almost doesn't matter in this decision. Henry has the potential to go in the first round, that is a given. The decision will come down to whether or not Henry wants to stay in college. Which believe it or not, happens. Let the kid enjoy his first year and hopefully its enough to make him want to stay all four!
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The decision will come down to whether or not Henry wants to stay in college. Which believe it or not, happens.
Exactly. For all the 1-and-done talk around Kentucky, even a lot of THOSE kids stick around for a second season.
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+1000
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The next Hiroshima on this board is Henry leaving.
Who knows, other than Henry, his family and his advisors? Here's hoping he gets a degree at Marquette and he's with us long enough to get his degree, play for us and enjoy us as much as we expect to enjoy him.
Why? Everyone knows in their head that he's a one-and-done. You can't teach height, and a decent 7 footer from a top conference is a lottery pick almost every time. He would have to perform well below reasonable expectations not to be a lottery pick.
Yes, there are a handful of hopeless romantics that toy with the idea that "he wants to play with his brother" or "he'll have so much fun he'll stay four years." Fine--the're voting with their heart, not their head.
I suspect, however, that the majority of "two and through" votes are from the typical sandbagging MU fans who mentally set lower expectations to avoid their own disappointment should the team (or in this case Henry) fail to meet what everyone knows are reasonable expectations.
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Why? Everyone knows in their head that he's a one-and-done. You can't teach height, and a decent 7 footer from a top conference is a lottery pick almost every time. He would have to perform well below reasonable expectations not to be a lottery pick.
Yes, there are a handful of hopeless romantics that toy with the idea that "he wants to play with his brother" or "he'll have so much fun he'll stay four years." Fine--the're voting with their heart, not their head.
I suspect, however, that the majority of "two and through" votes are from the typical sandbagging MU fans who mentally set lower expectations to avoid their own disappointment should the team (or in this case Henry) fail to meet what everyone knows are reasonable expectations.
Kyle Singler was a 4 year guy at Duke and he was rated higher than Ellenson coming out of HS.
A concensus top 5 guy in a great year with guys like Rose, Love, Harden, Gordon, Mayo, Beasley, Bayless, Koufos, Hickson, Hummel, Deandre Jordan, Dujuan Blair, Chandler Parsons, evan Turner, Jeff Teague, etc. Good scorer, passer, and rebounder who could handle the ball like Ellenson.
So you never know.
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what the f#ck is the point of this thread?
No point at all. We have a long season to play. At this point it is far to early to speculate on something no one knows the answer. Time to move on.
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What's wrong with speculating on whether or not the highest level recruit that Marquette has signed in decades could be a one and done?
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What's wrong with speculating on whether or not the highest level recruit that Marquette has signed in decades could be a one and done?
The guy has played a grand total of 30 minutes of collegiate ball against a team from Iceland. There is essentially no empiricism for this discussion - not the least of which is that no one here has any relevant insight into the mind of Henry Ellenson.
This is the proverbial how many angels can dance on the head of a pin conversation...pure mental masturbation.
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The guy has played a grand total of 30 minutes of collegiate ball against a team from Iceland. There is essentially no empiricism for this discussion - not the least of which is that no one here has any relevant insight into the mind of Henry Ellenson.
This is the proverbial how many angels can dance on the head of a pin conversation...pure mental masturbation.
It's speculation on a fan board. That's pretty much what it is.
And you don't like the topic, don't participate. No one cares either way.
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The guy has played a grand total of 30 minutes of collegiate ball against a team from Iceland. There is essentially no empiricism for this discussion - not the least of which is that no one here has any relevant insight into the mind of Henry Ellenson.
This is the proverbial how many angels can dance on the head of a pin conversation...pure mental masturbation.
Concur with your summary but apparently our expectations are to high. We need to
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Why? Everyone knows in their head that he's a one-and-done. You can't teach height, and a decent 7 footer from a top conference is a lottery pick almost every time. He would have to perform well below reasonable expectations not to be a lottery pick.
Yes, there are a handful of hopeless romantics that toy with the idea that "he wants to play with his brother" or "he'll have so much fun he'll stay four years." Fine--the're voting with their heart, not their head.
I suspect, however, that the majority of "two and through" votes are from the typical sandbagging MU fans who mentally set lower expectations to avoid their own disappointment should the team (or in this case Henry) fail to meet what everyone knows are reasonable expectations.
This is pretty much where I'm at, but I was curious to see where fan expectations are at. Rather surprised so many think he'll be her more than two years.
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I'm not sure of much, but am 100% sure he is one and done.
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Why? Everyone knows in their head that he's a one-and-done. You can't teach height, and a decent 7 footer from a top conference is a lottery pick almost every time. He would have to perform well below reasonable expectations not to be a lottery pick.
Yes, there are a handful of hopeless romantics that toy with the idea that "he wants to play with his brother" or "he'll have so much fun he'll stay four years." Fine--the're voting with their heart, not their head.
I suspect, however, that the majority of "two and through" votes are from the typical sandbagging MU fans who mentally set lower expectations to avoid their own disappointment should the team (or in this case Henry) fail to meet what everyone knows are reasonable expectations.
I am not a hopeless romantic. I don't even know if Henry's brother will stick around 2 more years. I absolutely never said he'd stay for 4 years (and I don't know anybody on Scoop who seriously has said that). I haven't voted in this poll.
I am not a "typical sandbagging MU fan who sets lower expectations to avoid my own disappointment." Marquette basketball is not my end-all and be-all. I'd much rather us win than lose, but I don't base my self-worth on the outcome of sporting events.
I am not "predicting" anything regarding Henry. My gut says 2 years, but I have zero zero zero inside knowledge, and I acknowledge that maybe that's my hopeful side kicking in.
I just don't see why it is so outrageous that Henry could enjoy the college experience enough that he'd want to stick around for one more year. Stuff like that does happen. Echoing brand, Kyle Singler was the No. 4 recruit in his class, No. 1 at his position. He wasn't even a 3-and-done -- and he averaged 13 points and 6 rebs as a freshman!!
Those who say they "know" Henry is a 1-and-done are full of shyte unless they are personal friends with Henry or his family. I certainly allow that he might very well be a 1-and-done, but I don't pretend to be certain about any of this.
Why do I get the feeling I'll be writing a version of this about 100 times between now and next March?
Oh, for the simple days of Derrick vs. Dawson!
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I think Henry will be with us all 4 years. He is going to have a tough time adjusting to the physical play in the Big East in the first year. He will have bright moments but it will be clear to all that he should stay. His improvement on both ends of the court will continue on a steady progression the next 3 years after. The team will also be steadily improving with him. Should be a fun four years.
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I think it comes down to this:
Is he a one and done because of his potential?: Yes, absolutely
Does that mean he will actually go to the NBA after one season?: No
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It's speculation on a fan board. That's pretty much what it is.
And you don't like the topic, don't participate. No one cares either way.
You obviously do because:
A. You replied
B. You are second only to Chico in terms of activity
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I think Henry will be with us all 4 years. He is going to have a tough time adjusting to the physical play in the Big East in the first year. He will have bright moments but it will be clear to all that he should stay. His improvement on both ends of the court will continue on a steady progression the next 3 years after. The team will also be steadily improving with him. Should be a fun four years.
Really, hey?
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He gone.
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He gone.
Based on how he looks today you'd think so.
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So do we still think he's a 6 and 3 guy this season here or...?
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Could be a Cody Zeller/Kaminsky situation where, if this team really gels by the end of the season he sticks around to try for a National Championship next year. But my gut says he'll get paid next year.
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You obviously do because:
A. You replied
B. You are second only to Chico in terms of activity
On a per day activity, I'm second. I've been on the board a lot longer.
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On a per day activity, I'm second. I've been on the board a lot longer.
Jams,
Embrace it, man! Wear it with pride!
Reminds me of the joke about the Scotsman at his first baseball game. When someone explains to him that when a man has four balls he gets to walk to first the Scotsman stands and yells, "FOUR BALLS!!!! RUN WITH PRIDE, LADDIE!"
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Probably gotta wait 5 years to judge, ai na?
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HE will transfer to IA State
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Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere, but has MU ever had a one-and-done? Would Henry be our first?
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Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere, but has MU ever had a one-and-done? Would Henry be our first?
Good question. No player has come to MU as a Frosh and immediately left for the NBA. Those who left early include Chones, Doc, DWade and perhaps a few others. DWade is the only one in the last 30 years to the best of my recollection. He had spent 3 years on campus, two on the active roster. I believe he had one year of remaining eligibility.
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Good question. No player has come to MU as a Frosh and immediately left for the NBA. Those who left early include Chones, Doc, DWade and perhaps a few others. DWade is the only one in the last 30 years to the best of my recollection. He had spent 3 years on campus, two on the active roster. I believe he had one year of remaining eligibility.
DWade actually had 2 years of eligibility as he himself pointed out. He did well enough academically to earbn back that 1st year. But, well, that's all academic... ;)
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DWade actually had 2 years of eligibility as he himself pointed out. He did well enough academically to earbn back that 1st year. But, well, that's all academic... ;)
Interesting. Hadn't known that the Frosh year could be earned back.
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Interesting. Hadn't known that the Frosh year could be earned back.
That was under Prop 48 or whatever it was then. Not sure what rules might apply today.
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DWade is the only one in the last 30 years to the best of my recollection.
Vander? How quickly they forget!
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Those who left early include Chones, Doc, DWade and perhaps a few others.
Lucas, McNeill...
The real loss was that when McNeill left early so, too, did his wife. Fights in the stands during Marquette games dropped precipitously
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3URz2tmuos4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3URz2tmuos4)
Some highlights from the first two games...
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3URz2tmuos4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3URz2tmuos4)
Some highlights from the first two games...
Very nice video. Thanks for sharing
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I'm thinking he's a 6 and 3 guy this year and needs at least 3 seasons in college to hone his skillset, a'ina?
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I hope he is good enough to be one and done. Next hope is we get more guys that good in upcoming recruiting classes.
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I hope he is good enough to be one and done. Next hope is we get more guys that good in upcoming recruiting classes.
I am hoping he is good enough to be a one and done. But then stays to be a two and champ.
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Good question. No player has come to MU as a Frosh and immediately left for the NBA. Those who left early include Chones, Doc, DWade and perhaps a few others. DWade is the only one in the last 30 years to the best of my recollection. He had spent 3 years on campus, two on the active roster. I believe he had one year of remaining eligibility.
Vander and mayo
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Lucas, McNeill...
The real loss was that when McNeill left early so, too, did his wife. Fights in the stands during Marquette games dropped precipitously
First, we have NEVER had a one-and-done.
Second, if both of these guys had stayed -- along with Jim Chones -- there would have been multiple National Championship banners hanging.
McNeill should not have left early. He is an interesting lesson for Henry. He was a strong enough player to be drafted but not strong enough to be an NBA stud. He averaged about 8.1 points per game in his career and 17.2 minutes playing time per game. Had he stayed in 1973-1974, he might well have been the difference in Marquette being able to tame David Thompson and NC State. I think we missed him far more than the NBA wanted him.
Henry looks like he has it all. But, how much seasoning does he need before headed for the NBA? Dean Smith, back in Michael Jordan's day, would argue that his players should turn pro early if they would be drafted with one of the first half dozen choices in the NBA draft. His insights were from ex-Carolina players and his relationships in the NBA and usually were pretty good. Below that, the player would be a bench-sitter.
Time will tell but lets enjoy it while we can.
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http://m.espn.go.com/nba/mockdraft?source=chad-ford-big-board&version=1&season=2016&src=desktop
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http://m.espn.go.com/nba/mockdraft?source=chad-ford-big-board&version=1&season=2016&src=desktop
For us non-Insiders, what is Chad's blurb on Henry?
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HE is one and done. Anything can happen, but I fully expect him to be gone.
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Vander and mayo
I think the caveat is those who left and played in The Show
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I think the caveat is those who left and played in The Show
Vander did.
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I think y'all are expending way too much energy worry about this. What he decides, he decides, and we should all be thankful he has decided to spend his college career at Marquette, no matter how long or short that is.
You fellas are like the guy who is dating a beautiful, smart, and funny woman, but instead of enjoying it, he spends all of his time worrying about when she will come to her senses and break it off.
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From the article:
"8. Henry Ellenson COLLEGE: Marquette AGE: 18 DOB: 01/13/1997 Class: Frosh HT: 6-10 WT: 228 POS: C
Ellenson reminds some scouts of a young Kevin Love. He's a big man who can play with his back to the basket and also stretch the floor. He's a very good athlete for a player his size and he's more physically ready to dominate than many of the other players in our top 10. He'll need to have a great freshman season at Marquette to sustain this spot, but there's no question he has the talent to go this high."
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His Instagram username is "heNBA13".
/endofdiscussion
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I think y'all are expending way too much energy worry about this. What he decides, he decides, and we should all be thankful he has decided to spend his college career at Marquette, no matter how long or short that is.
You fellas are like the guy who is dating a beautiful, smart, and funny woman, but instead of enjoying it, he spends all of his time worrying about when she will come to her senses and break it off.
Why do people seem to think that considering how long a player will be around constitutes worry? I'm not worried in the least. One year, two years, whatever, I'm looking forward to him playing.
That said, I'm curious what the rest of MU nation thinks about how long he'll be around and think it's worth discussing as it impacts our future in terms of players in the fold and available scholarships.
Just part of summer when all you have are (at best) exhibition games. Discuss the hopes, dreams, and expectations for the future of the program.
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We've had a lot of one and dones. Most just head to Iowa State instead of the pros.
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We've had a lot of one and dones. Most just head to Iowa State instead of the pros.
LOL That post is full of win. 8-) 8-) 8-)
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We've had a lot of one and dones. Most just head to Iowa State instead of the pros.
OK, maybe this is Post of the Year
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First, we have NEVER had a one-and-done.
Second, if both of these guys had stayed -- along with Jim Chones -- there would have been multiple National Championship banners hanging.
McNeill should not have left early. He is an interesting lesson for Henry. He was a strong enough player to be drafted but not strong enough to be an NBA stud. He averaged about 8.1 points per game in his career and 17.2 minutes playing time per game. Had he stayed in 1973-1974, he might well have been the difference in Marquette being able to tame David Thompson and NC State. I think we missed him far more than the NBA wanted him.
Henry looks like he has it all. But, how much seasoning does he need before headed for the NBA? Dean Smith, back in Michael Jordan's day, would argue that his players should turn pro early if they would be drafted with one of the first half dozen choices in the NBA draft. His insights were from ex-Carolina players and his relationships in the NBA and usually were pretty good. Below that, the player would be a bench-sitter.
Time will tell but lets enjoy it while we can.
I guess I don't understand the lesson. Are you saying McNeill would have gotten stronger with another year of college compared to training with NBA trainers and coaches?
The NBA has far more resources and better coaching than college programs. The players also don't have to be a full-time student and aren't restricted by the NCAA to live on meal plans and health care from the school (though is more of a problem of the well-documented lower tier D-1 schools). If I wanted to be the best player possible, I'm not sure how going against walk-ons at Marquette is going to get me there.
If you are arguing the experience of being a star is the most important, then being in the NCAA tourney is a great way to be a star. From what I can tell from HE is that he wants to be a great basketball player and just not a big man on campus.
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I guess I don't understand the lesson. Are you saying McNeill would have gotten stronger with another year of college compared to training with NBA trainers and coaches?
I'm saying that playing every day and refining your game in college is better than riding the bench in the NBA.
I will concur that things are different now than then. McNeill played for undercapitalized teams with meager resources. I think the players union as well as the health of the game in the post-Jordan era changed that forever. Still, there are too many sad stories of high college players lost as the 10th to 12th guys on an NBA roster.
That said, I'm looking forward to seeing Henry play, whether it be one year, four or any amount of time in between.
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Crean sucks
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I'm saying that playing every day and refining your game in college is better than riding the bench in the NBA.
Not sure what you mean about playing everyday.
Practice Time: More time in NBA with better coaches and facilities. In practice, the worst player on the Bucks he would be going against is Johnny O'bryant who was a college star. At Marquette, he will be playing against some random walk on when playing 5-on-5 most years. HE wouldn't have a full class schedule either, allowing him more time to work on his game. The NBA hire assistant coaches on their ability to work with players. The Bucks have a couple specialist for redefining a players shot and coaching them. In college, the majority of the assistants are picked on how they recruit from what I can tell.
Game Time: The most a player is going to play in college is about 40 games and 1,200 game minutes.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2014.html
I exported ^that^ into excel, removed injured (Randle, Embiid) and European guys (Saric, Bodganivic, etc) and first rounders averaged 46.8 games and 924 minutes. Even as a 10th man, they still get plenty of experience. Any experience they lose, I believe it is more than offset by working out as a professional against other professionals.
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To say nothin' of the cash, hey?
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Johnny O'bryant who was a college star. At Marquette, he will be playing against some random walk on when playing 5-on-5 most years.
Game Time: The most a player is going to play in college is about 40 games and 1,200 game minutes.
O'Bryant a star? If Henry's offensive production is that of O'Bryant's (as a junior!), we'll have issues.
What random walk on is Henry playing against this year?
...haven't had a guy with less than 1,400 minutes in college bball the last few years..
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Dude, if ya need 5 bucks to move up a notch from the Chancery to maybe say Chipotle, let me know, hey?
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I'm saying that playing every day and refining your game in college is better than riding the bench in the NBA.
Maybe if you're talking about the players ego.
For everything else, he'd be better off riding an NBA bench than playing in college.
1. The NCAA restricts practice to just 20 hours per week and 4 hours per day. An NBA player faces no such restrictions.
2. An NBA player can afford to hire the best private coaches to improve any weakness in his game.
3. Excluding playoffs/tournaments, an NBA season is 82 games, an NCAA season is only 32 games. So a 30 mpg player in college only has to average 12 mpg to have an equal amount of game time.
4. In the NBA, there are 48 mpg to go around, while there are only 40 in college--so there is more opportunity to log that 12 mpg.
5. The best team a player encounters in college is not going to challenge him as much as the worst team he faces in the NBA
6. In fact, the practice squad an NBA player faces is probably better than the best college team he faces, and undoubtedly better than his college practice squad.
7. His coaches in college split time between athletic fund raising, recruiting and actual coaching. His NBA coaches are 100% focused on coaching.
There is no way a player will develop better by staying in college than he will if he heads to the NBA.
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^^ IMO, it depends on the kid. There is something to be said of DOMINATING and LEADING when it comes to growth as a player and a man.
All minutes are not created equal.
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O'Bryant a star? If Henry's offensive production is that of O'Bryant's (as a junior!), we'll have issues.
What random walk on is Henry playing against this year?
...haven't had a guy with less than 1,400 minutes in college bball the last few years..
JOB was a 2x all-sec first teamer. I college that a star on a college team. Not trying to overstate he was a wooden winner or anything. Now compare that to to who HE will be going against in practice: his brother and a 18 year old heldt when playing first team versus second team. My point is HE will be going against the best talent in the world every day at practice in the NBA and I'm not sure why people don't value that.
I don't understand your minute comment. We are comparing an extra year in college versus the nba. The most anyone played last year was Wilson with 1,052 minutes.
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Looking at MU's schedule, there are probably 15 games at minimum where HE won't be going against any NBA talent. I get being the man is important to development but he has his freshmen year to do that.
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Maybe if you're talking about the players ego.
For everything else, he'd be better off riding an NBA bench than playing in college.
1. The NCAA restricts practice to just 20 hours per week and 4 hours per day. An NBA player faces no such restrictions.
2. An NBA player can afford to hire the best private coaches to improve any weakness in his game.
3. Excluding playoffs/tournaments, an NBA season is 82 games, an NCAA season is only 32 games. So a 30 mpg player in college only has to average 12 mpg to have an equal amount of game time.
4. In the NBA, there are 48 mpg to go around, while there are only 40 in college--so there is more opportunity to log that 12 mpg.
5. The best team a player encounters in college is not going to challenge him as much as the worst team he faces in the NBA
6. In fact, the practice squad an NBA player faces is probably better than the best college team he faces, and undoubtedly better than his college practice squad.
7. His coaches in college split time between athletic fund raising, recruiting and actual coaching. His NBA coaches are 100% focused on coaching.
There is no way a player will develop better by staying in college than he will if he heads to the NBA.
I challenge you to find me an NBA team that practices more than 20 hours per week and more than 4 hours per day. It doesn't even come close.
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Maybe if you're talking about the players ego.
For everything else, he'd be better off riding an NBA bench than playing in college.
There is no way a player will develop better by staying in college than he will if he heads to the NBA.
Just a quick little stat:
Spencer Hawes and Kevin Love are the only 2 White NCAA American players to be one-and-done in the last 10 years.
Spencer Hawes was projected to go 5th the entire year leading up to the draft , and ended up being drafted 10th.
Kevin Love was also expected to go 5th and ended up being drafted 5th, and was also a 1st team All-American.
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One thing you have to look at here is that scouts say this draft class is relatively weak and the draft from the 2016 recruiting class is loaded. One and done might be the right decision for Henry for this reason alone. As long as his draft stock doesn't drop too much.
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One of the things that I think people are forgetting is that if HE stays in school, he is limiting his earning potential.
When he decides to enter the draft, he is going to have to spend his first four years on a rookie contract...assuming of course he is drafted in the first round. The earlier he gets off that first contract is when he can get onto the more lucrative second one.
So for instance, let's say that HE decides to go pro after one year and he is drafted around #20. He would earn about $7.2 million over his first four years. Now let's say he came back and actually improved his stock and is drafted #8. That get's him $13.6 million. Sounds like a good deal right? He made $6 million+ more over the course of his first four years by waiting.
However under the first scenario, HE will be able to cash in a year earlier. He may very well exceed that $6 million difference in the first year of that new contract. So when you compare of how much he has earned at a similar age (as opposed to years) he may likely be better off leaving early even if it means he is drafted lower in round one. You can only play so many years of basketball. He might as well maximize his earnings during that time.
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Chad Ford no longer has Henry at #9.
He has him at #8
But keep telling yourself he's coming back.
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Yeaaa, at first I thought he was gonna stay for 2, but man the kid looks so good. Selfishly I want him to stay for 2 but it's looking more like a 1 and done with every game.
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I challenge you to find me an NBA team that practices more than 20 hours per week and more than 4 hours per day. It doesn't even come close.
You're right, they are not "practicing" that much but the gym is open 24 hours and the coaches will stay until 3am with guys as they get shots up. There are no restrictions to individual instruction. Listen to guys like Jared Dudley talk, they casually mention stopping at the Cousins Center late at night to get shots up and seeing coaches and Giannis there. I think MU is a fantastic place to "prep" for the NBA. We have the facilities, the support and a Coach K graduate, but that being said, I'd have my kid go pro right away if he was a Top 10 pick.
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You're right, they are not "practicing" that much but the gym is open 24 hours and the coaches will stay until 3am with guys as they get shots up. There are no restrictions to individual instruction. Listen to guys like Jared Dudley talk, they casually mention stopping at the Cousins Center late at night to get shots up and seeing coaches and Giannis there. I think MU is a fantastic place to "prep" for the NBA. We have the facilities, the support and a Coach K graduate, but that being said, I'd have my kid go pro right away if he was a Top 10 pick.
No doubt the earlier you get on an NBA roster the faster you're going to progress as a player. But the practice hour "restriction" is not a restriction at all, and not a reason to choose leaving early over staying in college, as no NBA team will ever go over those 20 hours per week or 4 hours per day. The college players can go to their practice gyms and shoot at any time of the day or night, just like the NBA players can. The only thing that restricts the amount of time they can be in the gym is that they have to be in class (at some schools, anyway).
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I think he will stay all four years. My current best guess is he will have a steady progression ending as Big East Player of the Year as a Senior. Upside is he has a Ty Hansbrough/ Doug McDermott type college career.
Needs to demonstrate he can play against tough athletic quick players. I think Big East is a great forum for him to do that. Obviously his skills are formidable and very glad we have him.
There is some good points being made about practice in an NBA environment. I think he may end up enjoying the college environment and want to savor that for as long as he can.
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I think he will stay all four years. My current best guess is he will have a steady progression ending as Big East Player of the Year as a Senior. Upside is he has a Ty Hansbrough/ Doug McDermott type college career.
You serious?
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I think he will stay all four years. My current best guess is he will have a steady progression ending as Big East Player of the Year as a Senior. Upside is he has a Ty Hansbrough/ Doug McDermott type college career.
Needs to demonstrate he can play against tough athletic quick players. I think Big East is a great forum for him to do that. Obviously his skills are formidable and very glad we have him.
There is some good points being made about practice in an NBA environment. I think he may end up enjoying the college environment and want to savor that for as long as he can.
You actually had to post this on a second thread? As if it wasn't dumb enough the first time?
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You actually had to post this on a second thread? As if it wasn't dumb enough the first time?
It is my point of view. Your free to call it dumb. I think it is well considered and probably going to be accurate.
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It is my point of view. Your free to call it dumb. I think it is well considered and probably going to be accurate.
And if I decided to throw my life away on excessive amounts of felony level narcotics with some binge drinking tossed it...looks like New York is the place to be.
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Here we get another string of comments since anybody (who was me) posted: What if he loves the Marquette experience? What if he simply likes college?
To me, that will be the main factor in Henry's decision.
All kinds of kids -- including several at the 1-and-done factory that is Kentucky -- have stayed in college "just because."
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Here we get another string of comments since anybody (who was me) posted: What if he loves the Marquette experience? What if he simply likes college?
To me, that will be the main factor in Henry's decision.
All kinds of kids -- including several at the 1-and-done factory that is Kentucky -- have stayed in college "just because."
Yes - but many of those supposed Kentucky 1-and-dones stayed out because they weren't going to be drafted as high as they thought they should go, or faced a deep draft that hurt their chances. Think Willy Cauley-Stein, Alex Poythress and the Harrison twins. And in years 2 and 3 either their stock dropped (Harrison twins) or they were injured (Poythress). Maybe it's better to be sitting out with a torn ACL if you're collecting $ millions on a guaranteed contract.
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Here we get another string of comments since anybody (who was me) posted: What if he loves the Marquette experience? What if he simply likes college?
To me, that will be the main factor in Henry's decision.
All kinds of kids -- including several at the 1-and-done factory that is Kentucky -- have stayed in college "just because."
Clearly Henry can and will do what-ever he wants. I guess from my personal perspective, I would be thrilled if he enters the NBA as a first round pick as soon as he can/wants to. Would I be upset if he stayed at Marquette in a McDermott type situation - of course not. However, he doesn't owe me or MU any more time than he needs.
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It is my point of view. Your free to call it dumb. I think it is well considered and probably going to be accurate.
What makes you believe that Henry will be different than most one and done types and will stick around for all four years? What makes your point of view "well considered?" Because to me it sounds simply like a guess wrapped around some blue and gold goggled hopefulness. The vast majority of these types of players leave school after one or two years, barring an injury of some sort. I really don't know why he would be different.
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I'm so moved on from Henry being here in 2017 that I'm starting to think Duane will declare, too.
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I'm so moved on from Henry being here in 2017 that I'm starting to think Duane will declare, too.
6'1" off guards are not a hot NBA commodity.
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Ellenson measured 6-10.5 in shoes and 7-2 wingspan in 2014
hansborough was 6-9.5 and 6-11.5 Wingspan (people we surprised because he did not play that big).
McDermott was 6-7 1/2 with shoes and 6-9.25 WS.
So ellenson functionally is 2" taller then Hansbrough and has more skill and a larger frame and is 5" taller then McDermott with less skill and a larger frame.
They were both lottery picks but McDermott cannot defend his position in the NBA and hansbrough is limited OFF to able to create scoring for himself.
Plus its not a strong Class in 2016, The top guy in this draft would probably be projected around 5-7 in 2014 and 2015.
Ellenson could very well project top 3 if he has a good year. My hope is he stays for 2 to play with his Bro one more year and Play for a top 5-10 team in the country, play for a big East title and go deep in the NCAA's
FYI with wingspan I only counted a 1" for every 2" longer figuring functional height.
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6'1" off guards are not a hot NBA commodity.
You and I both know this but players sometimes think a different way. This is Duane's 3rd year out of HS, that coupled big time on the floor success and family considerations could have him try it. Look at Tokoto, more and more, guys just want to get into the pro's where they think they can beat the next man out for that money spot.
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No doubt the earlier you get on an NBA roster the faster you're going to progress as a player. But the practice hour "restriction" is not a restriction at all, and not a reason to choose leaving early over staying in college, as no NBA team will ever go over those 20 hours per week or 4 hours per day. The college players can go to their practice gyms and shoot at any time of the day or night, just like the NBA players can. The only thing that restricts the amount of time they can be in the gym is that they have to be in class (at some schools, anyway).
So what's the point?
In college, you absolutely cannot under any circumstances practice more than 20 hours/week or 4/day.
In the NBA, you probably won't practice that much, but nothing would stop you from doing so if you wanted/needed to.
Advantage is still with the NBA on this point for development possibility.
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You and I both know this but players sometimes think a different way. This is Duane's 3rd year out of HS, that coupled big time on the floor success and family considerations could have him try it. Look at Tokoto, more and more, guys just want to get into the pro's where they think they can beat the next man out for that money spot.
If Duane did this. He'd make Vander look like Albert Einstein.
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So what's the point?
In college, you absolutely cannot under any circumstances practice more than 20 hours/week or 4/day.
In the NBA, you probably won't practice that much, but nothing would stop you from doing so if you wanted/needed to.
Advantage is still with the NBA on this point for development possibility.
My point is that you will NEVER practice more than 20 hours in a week or 4 hours in a day in college or the pros. There is no limit on NCAA athletes as to how many hours they can be by themselves (or with teammates but without coaches) in a gym (or on a field). Sure, there's a limit as to how much they can have organized practices, but it is far more than any NBA team would even fathom practicing. So this is not an advantage for leaving for the NBA.
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If Duane did this. He'd make Vander look like Albert Einstein.
Completely disagree.
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Here we get another string of comments since anybody (who was me) posted: What if he loves the Marquette experience? What if he simply likes college?
To me, that will be the main factor in Henry's decision.
All kinds of kids -- including several at the 1-and-done factory that is Kentucky -- have stayed in college "just because."
I voted 2 years, based only on this notion. If he is not totally on love with college life, he's gone.
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Yes - but many of those supposed Kentucky 1-and-dones stayed out because they weren't going to be drafted as high as they thought they should go, or faced a deep draft that hurt their chances. Think Willy Cauley-Stein, Alex Poythress and the Harrison twins. And in years 2 and 3 either their stock dropped (Harrison twins) or they were injured (Poythress). Maybe it's better to be sitting out with a torn ACL if you're collecting $ millions on a guaranteed contract.
Yes, but when they signed to play for Kentucky, they did so thinking they were going to the 1-and-done factory and that they, too, would go 1-and-done.
I don't know if "Draft Express" or any of the gurus had any of those guys in their top 10 as Henry is now. But I do know they were very highly ranked coming out of HS.
I mean, Andrew Harrison was the No. 5 prospect in the entire HS class of 2013, and No. 1 at his position. He was a 6-5 stud. You don't think he fully expected to be a 1-and-done?
Stuff happens.
If Henry goes, he goes. If he stays, he stays. All we can do is blah-blah-blah about it.
I just don't see why it is so easily dismissed that Henry Ellenson could end up staying more than one year (for whatever reason) like Andrew Harrison and Kyle Singler did. It's not an outrageous, borderline-impossible notion as some make it out to be -- especially if Henry simply loves being in college.
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The dude is 6'10" with a guard's skill set. He gone, ai na?
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The dude is 6'10" with a guard's skill set. He gone, ai na?
How tall was Tim Duncan and what kind of skill set did he have?
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Henry's highlights from the final two games in Italy...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldJcdW9lCns&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldJcdW9lCns&feature=youtu.be)
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How tall was Tim Duncan and what kind of skill set did he have?
Henry was 4 months old when Tim was drafted and wasn't even born yet when Tim decided to return for his senior season. I think you need to find a more recent example.
The best I can think of are Blake Griffin or Marcus Smart.
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Henry was 4 months old when Tim was drafted and wasn't even born yet when Tim decided to return for his senior season. I think you need to find a more recent example.
The best I can think of are Blake Griffin or Marcus Smart.
Yeah in the Tim Duncan era, one and dones were rare. Kevin Garnett was the first guy drafted out of high school just two years earlier. Players have a completely different mind set these days.
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Yeah in the Tim Duncan era, one and dones were rare. Kevin Garnett was the first guy drafted out of high school just two years earlier. Players have a completely different mind set these days.
They were more rare, but Reggie Harding was drafted out of high school by the Pistons in 1962.
Garnett was the first in the modern era, but there were a few before him.
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They were more rare, but Reggie Harding was drafted out of high school by the Pistons in 1962.
Garnett was the first in the modern era, but there were a few before him.
I typed it. Knew I should have said "in the modern era." Hit "post" anyway to see how long it would take.
Less than 15 minutes.
;)
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I originally voted that he was one and done. Of course, if he wants to go it does not matter whether he is ready or not. He seemed to wear down on the Italy tour. I now believe he is not as ready as I thought he was. I do not even think he is the best player on the team. I think Fischer is the best player. We really could have three players go pro after this year. We will be a serious challenger to win the NCAA tournament if Henry, Luke and Duane stay.
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@PatThomas1318: Duane Wilson on Henry Ellenson "He will be Marquette's first ever one and done."
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@PatThomas1318: Duane Wilson on Henry Ellenson "He will be Marquette's first ever one and done."
Apparently Duane has never heard of Niv Berkowitz.
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@PatThomas1318: Duane Wilson on Henry Ellenson "He will be Marquette's first ever one and done."
I'm fine with Henry being a one and done, so long as he doesn't turn into our programs version of Larry Hughes. Keep on the recruiting trail Wojo.
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Apparently Duane has never heard of Niv Berkowitz.
Apparently he didn't hear from our local Scoop experts that we need to temper expectations on him because he's a freshman and unless you go to Kentucky you don't produce as freshman. Be happy with 6 and 3 from Hank this year.
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I'm fine with Henry being a one and done, so long as he doesn't turn into our programs version of Larry Hughes.
I'm not sure what this means.
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Whatever happens, happens. I'll just enjoy the ride this season.
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Glaring endorsement but Duane can exaggerate let's not forget he called Steve Taylor when of the best power forwards in the country About this time last year.
Hopefully he'll be great if he's one and done, great if he's two and through and great if he stays for three or four years.
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I hoping Ellenson has a good enough season to be a top 5 pick. My fear is that Duane and/or Fischer would also turn pro. Everyone returning besides Henry should result in a very successful 2016-17 season.
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I hoping Ellenson has a good enough season to be a top 5 pick. My fear is that Duane and/or Fischer would also turn pro. Everyone returning besides Henry should result in a very successful 2016-17 season.
Duane would have to take an ENORMOUS jump. He simply isn't big enough unless he becomes a hell of a PG.
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Glaring endorsement but Duane can exaggerate let's not forget he called Steve Taylor when of the best power forwards in the country About this time last year.
It think its great that Duane thinks so highly of his teammate but to put that in prospective how many can't miss NBA prospects has Duane ever been on a team with? If the Bucks players start saying H.E. is NBA ready NOW (like we heard when Wade was on team) then I'll start thinking Henry "might" leave after this freshman year. For now I'm in the 2 years or longer camp.
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It think its great that Duane thinks so highly of his teammate but to put that in prospective how many can't miss NBA prospects has Duane ever been on a team with? If the Bucks players start saying H.E. is NBA ready NOW (like we heard when Wade was on team) then I'll start thinking Henry "might" leave after this freshman year. For now I'm in the 2 years or longer camp.
He's been listed in the top 10 of 2016 NBA Draft boards for the past year and a half by people who get paid to evaluate those things. He was 1 of 13 players chosen to represent the USA at his age group. He's 6'10" with a guard's skillset. Literally the only chance he stays is if he loves playing with his brother that much...and even then, he might love his brother enough to say, "I'll take care of you for the rest of your life by getting paid next year."
He gowne.
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I think little to no chance of him returning for a second season. Hopefully the first of more one and done at MU.
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Glaring endorsement but Duane can exaggerate let's not forget he called Steve Taylor when of the best power forwards in the country About this time last year.
Hopefully he'll be great if he's one and done, great if he's two and through and great if he stays for three or four years.
Not so great for recruiting as Marquette would get a reputation as a place where great players languish and/or regress.
Henry is a one year guy. Period. Most people (as shown by the poll results) don't get it due to a combination of wishful thinking and our inexperience as a fan base with one and dones.
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I'm fine with Henry being a one and done, so long as he doesn't turn into our programs version of Larry Hughes. Keep on the recruiting trail Wojo.
I'm not sure what this means.
I believe that Chitown is referring to Larry Hughes status as a one and done both as a player and as the only one and done recruit for SLU.
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http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/331029421.html
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I'm fine with Henry being a one and done, so long as he doesn't turn into our programs version of Larry Hughes. Keep on the recruiting trail Wojo.
Yes, let's hope Henry doesn't turn us into St. Louis.
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Apparently Duane has never heard of Niv Berkowitz.
Lol, good catch. Although, technically, Niv was a 1/4 and done.
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I believe that Chitown is referring to Larry Hughes status as a one and done both as a player and as the only one and done recruit for SLU.
Oh. OK. I thought he was somehow disparaging Larry Hughes.
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http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2015/10/07/best-big-men-college-basketball-ben-simmons-gonzaga-sabonis-karnowski
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It think its great that Duane thinks so highly of his teammate but to put that in prospective how many can't miss NBA prospects has Duane ever been on a team with? If the Bucks players start saying H.E. is NBA ready NOW (like we heard when Wade was on team) then I'll start thinking Henry "might" leave after this freshman year. For now I'm in the 2 years or longer camp.
Diamond Stone, for one. If you follow those sorts of rankings for kids.
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Duane would have to take an ENORMOUS jump. He simply isn't big enough unless he becomes a hell of a PG.
Anyone can go pro, whether it is a good idea or not. See Vander Blue.
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I hoping Ellenson has a good enough season to be a top 5 pick. My fear is that Duane and/or Fischer would also turn pro.
So, your "fear" is basically that MU wins a national championship this season.
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So, your "fear" is basically that MU wins a national championship this season.
+1 -- I dream of a scenario where those three go pro next year. My guess is the excitement of watching that happen would totally offset the temporary gap in recruiting. Temporary would likely be the key word because Wojo would be the coach that just delivered 3 guys to the NBA.
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+1 -- I dream of a scenario where those three go pro next year. My guess is the excitement of watching that happen would totally offset the temporary gap in recruiting. Temporary would likely be the key word because Wojo would be the coach that just delivered 3 guys to the NBA.
Well if those three go pro obviously Haanif JJJ and Cohen all step up and get us to back to back national championships.
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Oops.
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+1 -- I dream of a scenario where those three go pro next year. My guess is the excitement of watching that happen would totally offset the temporary gap in recruiting. Temporary would likely be the key word because Wojo would be the coach that just delivered 3 guys to the NBA.
So we're worried we have a guard that will play way better than junior-year Vander Blue, to go along with our freshman lottery pick, as well as a 6'10 center who will also play well enough to be first-round worthy. Wow. I need to increase my expectations for this season!
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I think little to no chance of him returning for a second season. Hopefully the first of more one and done at MU.
I'm not saying it's likely, but there are plenty of examples of guys projected to go in the lottery that stick around for another year.
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I'm not saying it's likely, but there are plenty of examples of guys projected to go in the lottery that stick around for another year.
Really, can you name them?
He gone.
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Bein' NBA ready, as a prereq. for enterin' the draft, should have no bearin', whatsoever, whether a playa enters or not. The Association is predicated on potential. The 30th playa selected in this year's draft got a 3 year guaranteed deal, with a club option for year 4. Total compensation value is north of $8 mil.
HE gone. If, by chance, Henry is dumb enough to stay, I'll personally examine his head for nothin', hey?
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Really, can you name them?
He gone.
Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger. If we're going off players that were projected to be lottery picks before the season that stayed because they didn't live up to expectations that'd be half of Kentucky's team this past year I believe.
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Really, can you name them?
He gone.
Off the top of my head?
2015: Jakob Poeltl, Caris Levert, Kris Dunn, Wayne Selden, Chris Walker
2014: Willie Cauley-Stein, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Wayne Selden, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker
2013: Alex Poythress
Sometimes kids like playing in college. Its rare, its not the norm but It does happen. Everyone who claims to know whether or not Ellenson is gone is mistaking opinion for fact.
I think everyone except maybe one or two posters I have seen, agree that Ellenson has the talent to go one and done. Whether or not he does is an entirely different question.
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Really, can you name them?
He gone.
Blake Griffin. Very similar situation to Henry and Wally. Came back to play his sophomore year with his brother who was a senior at the time
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Blake Griffin. Very similar situation to Henry and Wally. Came back to play his sophomore year with his brother who was a senior at the time
Griffin, Cauley-Stein and the Harrisons are very good examples. Hell, Kaminsky might have been a lottery pick in 2014; certainly a first-rounder. Going back a few years (but not that long ago), Duke's Kyle Singler was an absolute stud coming out of HS in 2006 ... and ended up staying all 4 years.
Of course, Henry could be 1-and-done, but all these folks who profess to be sure -- and yes, I'm talkin' about Duane, too -- have absolutely no inside information that it's a certainty.
They are using logic, and that's smart. But logic doesn't always rule the day when it comes to a 19-year-old's decision, especially when that 19-year-old has a brother on the team and doesn't have huge financial need.
I guess it's just totally uncool to say, "I don't know, but I think ... " Gotta say, with total certainty, HE'S GONE AND IT'S A DONE DEAL.
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So far:
2015: Jakob Poeltl, Caris Levert, Kris Dunn, Wayne Selden, Chris Walker
2014: Willie Cauley-Stein, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Wayne Selden, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker
2013: Alex Poythress
2011: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Terrance Jones
2008: Blake Griffin, Kyle Singler
Let's keep this list going! Should give us hope for two years of Henry!
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So far:
2015: Jakob Poeltl, Caris Levert, Kris Dunn, Wayne Selden, Chris Walker
2014: Willie Cauley-Stein, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Wayne Selden, Montrezl Harrell, Sam Dekker
2013: Alex Poythress
2011: Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger
2008: Blake Griffin, Kyle Singler
Let's keep this list going! Should give us hope for two years of Henry!
Harrison Barnes. Excellent example. No. 1-rated recruit in Class of 2010 by Scout, No. 2-rated by Rivals. Mickey D's AA. Junior National Select Team. Morgan Wootton winner as No. 1 prep player of 2010. Preseason AP All-American as frosh despite never having played a college game. First double-double only a month into UNC career. In January of his freshman year, was projected as the No. 8-overall draft pick.
And yet he stayed two years.
Oh, and BTW, Sullinger was projected as the No. 1-overall draft pick in January of his freshman year (same year as Barnes, 2011).
And yet he stayed for two years.
And that same year, Terrence Jones went for 25-12 in his first game at Kentucky and by January was projected as the No. 6-overall pick. Averaged 16 points and 9 rebs as a Kentucky frosh and was first-team All-SEC.
And yet he stayed two years ... and was rewarded with a national title as a sophomore.
So that's three just from 2011 -- Barnes, Sullinger and Jones -- who were projected as lottery picks and ended up staying two years at their schools.
But yes, some here think it is OUTRAGEOUS to think that Henry Ellenson, whose own brother is on the team and whose family has no significant financial need, might stick around for more than one year.
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He gowne.
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Love the "no significant financial needs" argument, too. Because living off your parents household income of $100K? Is no different than making $2M/year yourself and being 1 year closer to upping that to $10M+/year.
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We really need to redirect this conversation back to the fact someone is worried we have THREE first-round NBA draft picks on the team THIS YEAR.
I guess that would be like reverse Hiroshima, because that would be the bomb.
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Love the "no significant financial needs" argument, too. Because living off your parents household income of $100K? Is no different than making $2M/year yourself and being 1 year closer to upping that to $10M+/year.
There's a big difference and you know what he's getting at. Quite a lot of players that turn into lottery picks have families that are quite poor and need the financial assistance.
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There's a big difference and you know what he's getting at. Quite a lot of players that turn into lottery picks have families that are quite poor and need the financial assistance.
Of course he knows. He's just being disingenuous so he can "win" his argument.
wadesworld isn't commenting on why Barnes, Sullinger and Jones all agreed to delay that sure $2 million with the promise of being one year closer to $10 million. I wonder if he also KNEW they were "gowne."
Look, I make no claims to know what's going on inside Ellenson's head. He very well could leave after one year. But those who think it's a done deal while providing no proof of inside knowledge and while also completely ignoring the MANY recent examples of highly touted (many MORE highly touted than Henry) kids who stayed for two years ... well, we know what they are full of. And it's not just disningenuousness!
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Of course he knows. He's just being disingenuous so he can "win" his argument.
wadesworld isn't commenting on why Barnes, Sullinger and Jones all agreed to delay that sure $2 million with the promise of being one year closer to $10 million. I wonder if he also KNEW they were "gowne."
Look, I make no claims to know what's going on inside Ellenson's head. He very well could leave after one year. But those who think it's a done deal while providing no proof of inside knowledge and while also completely ignoring the MANY recent examples of highly touted (many MORE highly touted than Henry) kids who stayed for two years ... well, we know what they are full of. And it's not just disningenuousness!
In other words, HE has factors that mitigate why he might not simply be a "one and done." I don't think anyone can disagree with that. I *think* he will be a one and done, but I don't know how much he...
...enjoys being in school
...enjoys playing with his brother
...has his parents telling him that the NBA can wait.
Making a prediction and then dying on that hill is a little silly.
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He gowne.
Did he transfer? Or do you mean he's good enough to declare at the end of the season? Because we all agree about that.
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Did he transfer? Or do you mean he's good enough to declare at the end of the season? Because we all agree about that.
Yeah, he transferred.
He heard freshman can't put up numbers unless they're at UK, so he's actually enrolled there now.
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In other words, HE has factors that mitigate why he might not simply be a "one and done." I don't think anyone can disagree with that. I *think* he will be a one and done, but I don't know how much he...
...enjoys being in school
...enjoys playing with his brother
...has his parents telling him that the NBA can wait.
Making a prediction and then dying on that hill is a little silly.
Exactly.
I make no predictions. I didn't even vote in our silly poll. I simply allow for the possibility -- the very real possibility -- that he could make the same decision many other recent prep stars did and stay for two years.
To some, even allowing for that possibility is "wrong."
Those folks have boxed themselves in now. They might consider themselves the biggest Marquette fans in the world but they will be rooting for Henry to leave so they can say, "I told you so."
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Exactly.
I make no predictions. I didn't even vote in our silly poll. I simply allow for the possibility -- the very real possibility -- that he could make the same decision many other recent prep stars did and stay for two years.
To some, even allowing for that possibility is "wrong."
Those folks have boxed themselves in now. They might consider themselves the biggest Marquette fans in the world but they will be rooting for Henry to leave so they can say, "I told you so."
Nope. I'll be rooting for Henry to leave because the only reason he doesn't leave is if he has some kind of major injury this year, and that would not be good for anyone.
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Seriously, the kid has not played one game yet, and everybody has him gone. Lets see if he can take MU to the NCAA tournament much less be a .500 team in conference. After the year is over, might be the time to bring this up. It is one thing to be a one and done player, it is another to stay in the league 10-12 years.
For every Jimmy Butler, there is 10 kids who are in Europe or Asia, after 2 year stint. The money is so good in the NBA, it would be wiser to stay a couple of years and mature as a person.
zz
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Seriously, the kid has not played one game yet, and everybody has him gone. Lets see if he can take MU to the NCAA tournament much less be a .500 team in conference. After the year is over, might be the time to bring this up. It is one thing to be a one and done player, it is another to stay in the league 10-12 years.
For every Jimmy Butler, there is 10 kids who are in Europe or Asia, after 2 year stint. The money is so good in the NBA, it would be wiser to stay a couple of years and mature as a person.
zz
Yeah. Just ask Dominic James how that worked out for him.
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I for one hope & believe that HE will be in a position to choose to enter NBA draft -- should he want to do that.
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Yeah. Just ask Dominic James how that worked out for him.
yes, he would have been out of the league at 20, hard to say if that would be better for him or not.
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Nope. I'll be rooting for Henry to leave because the only reason he doesn't leave is if he has some kind of major injury this year, and that would not be good for anyone.
If he averages 15.6ppg and 5.8rpg would you say he's a fool to stay? Or 17.2ppg and 10.2rpg?
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yes, he would have been out of the league at 20, hard to say if that would be better for him or not.
Well, he would've had a few years of making multiple millions of dollars even if that is the case. Instead, he didn't get paid for the next 3 years and then went overseas. So instead of making $2M/year for the next 3 years and then going overseas, he made $0.00/year over the next 3 years and then went overseas. Oops.
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If he averages 15.6ppg and 5.8rpg would you say he's a fool to stay? Or 17.2ppg and 10.2rpg?
I'm guessing you're comparing him to 2 players who put up those numbers but stayed in college. Were either of those players 6'10" guys with a guard's skillset?
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I'm guessing you're comparing him to 2 players who put up those numbers but stayed in college. Were either of those players 6'10" guys with a guard's skillset?
One is 6-8 with a guard's skill set. The other is 6-9 and built like a tank.
There's only two players I can think of that are 6-10 with a guards skill set. And of those two there was financial need for one of them while the other did not. Although the other lead his team to a FF so if Ellenson does that go on ahead and leave.
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respect the process
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Nope. I'll be rooting for Henry to leave because the only reason he doesn't leave is if he has some kind of major injury this year, and that would not be good for anyone.
Unless you know him, or know someone who has talked with him and given you his mindset, you are simply making a prediction. It may be a REALLY good prediction based on the history of players ranked that high, but ultimately you don't know if HE will stay or not.
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I'm in the "He Gone" camp and it is two fold:
1) I believe it is the most realistic scenario
2) I am setting myself up mentally for a Henry Free 2017 (I believe Wojo is doing this too)
Of all the names bandied about the only sure fire lotto's were Marcus Smart and Blake Griffin. The Harrison Twins have been 2nd Rounders since they started playing at UK. Harrison Barnes had a very uneven Freshman season. WCS is a work in progress. Dekker was a fringe Top 10 player at best out of HS. Yes top 10 potential kids flame out but it's not as likely. The odds state Henry is gone.
Finally, his family is made up of decorated athletes. Regardless of finances if you have the option of playing in the best league in the world, against the best competition, with the best coaching and facilities --- competitive people like the Ellensons usually take it.
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HE was ranked #9 RSCI. Here is the current status of other #9s:
2014: Justin Jackson, UNC, averaged 10.7 ppg. Back in school
2013: Noah Vonleh, IU, one and done, NBA player
2012: Marcus Smart, OkSU, averaged 15 ppg his freshman year and was B12 POY. Stayed another year.
2011: Adonis Thomas, UNC, three years in school. Fringe NBA player.
2010: Tristan Thompson, Texas, one and done, NBA player
2009: Kenny Boynton, Florida, four year player. Solid college guy but not NBA player.
2008: Ed Davis, UNC, two year player. Fringe NBA player.
2007: JJ Hickson, NC State, one and done. NBA player
2006: Brook Lopez, Stanford, two year player. NBA player.
2005: Mario Chalmers, Kansas, three year player. NBA player.
So of the last ten players ranked in the same position as HE
**3 were one and done
**3 stayed two years, but two of whom could have have been no doubt first round picks after one year, but came back for second year (Smart, Lopez)
**2 spent three years in school
**1 spent four years in school
**1 is still in school
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Nope. I'll be rooting for Henry to leave because the only reason he doesn't leave is if he has some kind of major injury this year, and that would not be good for anyone.
Source?
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Even a Looney would go pro after a year.
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Saw Henry at the women's soccer game last night and he really likes an athlete and not a 6-11 ball player. He even walks like an agile athlete. Going to be fun to watch.
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HE was ranked #9 RSCI. Here is the current status of other #9s:
2014: Justin Jackson, UNC, averaged 10.7 ppg. Back in school
2013: Noah Vonleh, IU, one and done, NBA player
2012: Marcus Smart, OkSU, averaged 15 ppg his freshman year and was B12 POY. Stayed another year.
2011: Adonis Thomas, UNC, three years in school. Fringe NBA player.
2010: Tristan Thompson, Texas, one and done, NBA player
2009: Kenny Boynton, Florida, four year player. Solid college guy but not NBA player.
2008: Ed Davis, UNC, two year player. Fringe NBA player.
2007: JJ Hickson, NC State, one and done. NBA player
2006: Brook Lopez, Stanford, two year player. NBA player.
2005: Mario Chalmers, Kansas, three year player. NBA player.
So of the last ten players ranked in the same position as HE
**3 were one and done
**3 stayed two years, but two of whom could have have been no doubt first round picks after one year, but came back for second year (Smart, Lopez)
**2 spent three years in school
**1 spent four years in school
**1 is still in school
Some players are very good college players, but will not make the NBA because they are too small or not athletic enough. Ellenson has the size and if you define athleticism as mobility he is athletic enough.
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Some players are very good college players, but will not make the NBA because they are too small or not athletic enough. Ellenson has the size and if you define athleticism as mobility he is athletic enough.
Which of those players would you describe as too small or not athletic enough for the NBA?
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We will obviously have enough information to determine if he is a 1 and done based on his performance during the scrimmage tonight.
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Which of those players would you describe as too small or not athletic enough for the NBA?
Kenny Boynton. Too small for the NBA (and a cautious case for why Duane Wilson will likely not make the NBA either.)
But I think that's the only one considering the rest of them are actually in the NBA right now.
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I think the answer has been definitively spoken. Henry is not a legitimate one and done.
I continue to believe he will be with us for 4 years. Big East Player of the Year as a Senior.
He has a lot of talent, but he also has many holes in his game. Those holes were exposed in high school but were overlooked.
Wojo has given this kid a green light for everything and I think that needs to be rethought.
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I think the answer has been definitively spoken. Henry is not a legitimate one and done.
I continue to believe he will be with us for 4 years. Big East Player of the Year as a Senior.
He has a lot of talent, but he also has many holes in his game. Those holes were exposed in high school but were overlooked.
Wojo has given this kid a green light for everything and I think that needs to be rethought.
I have said I think he'll be around for more than one year, but it's FAR too early to say what you said here.
NBA teams draft for potential. Noah Vonleh was the No. 9 pick in the 2014 draft, for cripe's sake, and that's just one of dozens of examples in recent years.
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I think the answer has been definitively spoken. Henry is not a legitimate one and done.
I continue to believe he will be with us for 4 years. Big East Player of the Year as a Senior.
He has a lot of talent, but he also has many holes in his game. Those holes were exposed in high school but were overlooked.
Wojo has given this kid a green light for everything and I think that needs to be rethought.
...The kid put up 21, 16, and 3 in his first game. That is literally the best debut for a Marquette basketball player ever. And unlike other similar great debuts, it was against legitimate top 100 competition rather than some scrubs. And you want to say "definitively" he is not a legitimate one and one option after two games.
I'm not saying he's going to go one and done but I have seen nothing to say he couldn't to this point. And before you say "his defense," the NBA doesn't care. He's 6"11 with a strong handle and good shot. Defense can be taught.
But more than anything, it's two games. To say anything is definitive is just silly.
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I think the answer has been definitively spoken. Henry is not a legitimate one and done.
I continue to believe he will be with us for 4 years. Big East Player of the Year as a Senior.
He has a lot of talent, but he also has many holes in his game. Those holes were exposed in high school but were overlooked.
Wojo has given this kid a green light for everything and I think that needs to be rethought.
Yep. After two games you know. Maybe you should be a scout.
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...The kid put up 21, 16, and 3 in his first game. That is literally the best debut for a Marquette basketball player ever. And unlike other similar great debuts, it was against legitimate top 100 competition rather than some scrubs. And you want to say "definitively" he is not a legitimate one and one option after two games.
I'm not saying he's going to go one and done but I have seen nothing to say he couldn't to this point. And before you say "his defense," the NBA doesn't care. He's 6"11 with a strong handle and good shot. Defense can be taught.
But more than anything, it's two games. To say anything is definitive is just silly.
This should just about end the nonsense above.
Calling him a 4 year player after 21 and 16 lol
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One and done. Draft positions are based off upside potential, especially the younger you are. Furthermore, from everything I have heard it appears to me he has high desire to play at next level. Barring injury I think very slim possibility of him being back for a second year.
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I think the answer has been definitively spoken. Henry is not a legitimate one and done.
I continue to believe he will be with us for 4 years. Big East Player of the Year as a Senior.
He has a lot of talent, but he also has many holes in his game. Those holes were exposed in high school but were overlooked.
Wojo has given this kid a green light for everything and I think that needs to be rethought.
This is effing laughable. Let's bear in mind, Henry is currently averaging 19.5/9.5. If he keeps that up, those will be better numbers than Trey Lyles, Noah Vonleh, Alex Len, or Steven Adams ever put up, all of whom were lottery picks in the past 3 years. Those are also better number than Anthony Bennett, who was the #1 overall pick 3 years ago.
Looking at Henry's body, he could certainly use another year. He is not at all sculpted and right now seems to have that kind of "country strong" physique that many freshman bigs have. Give him a second year and he could be a POY candidate. Not team, not league, but nationally. But if he wants to go this year, the skillset is there and he's almost certain to be a first round pick.
Everyone is talking about his debut, how about putting up 18/3/3 in his second game on what was clearly an off-night? If that's what he does when he's BAD, I'm pretty sure he's good enough to get drafted on potential.
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He gone, hey?
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This is effing laughable. Let's bear in mind, Henry is currently averaging 19.5/9.5. If he keeps that up, those will be better numbers than Trey Lyles, Noah Vonleh, Alex Len, or Steven Adams ever put up, all of whom were lottery picks in the past 3 years. Those are also better number than Anthony Bennett, who was the #1 overall pick 3 years ago.
Looking at Henry's body, he could certainly use another year. He is not at all sculpted and right now seems to have that kind of "country strong" physique that many freshman bigs have. Give him a second year and he could be a POY candidate. Not team, not league, but nationally. But if he wants to go this year, the skillset is there and he's almost certain to be a first round pick.
Everyone is talking about his debut, how about putting up 18/3/3 in his second game on what was clearly an off-night? If that's what he does when he's BAD, I'm pretty sure he's good enough to get drafted on potential.
Henry has good stats for sure. I just see him as a Me First stat guy right now. That is going to be severely exploited when he plays against quality athletic competition.
Yes he may be drafted on potential. All I care about is the here and now and him contributing to MU winning.
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Henry has good stats for sure. I just see him as a Me First stat guy right now. That is going to be severely exploited when he plays against quality athletic competition.
Yes he may be drafted on potential. All I care about is the here and now and him contributing to MU winning.
Interestingly, NBA general managers have slightly different concerns than Scoopers.
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Henry has good stats for sure. I just see him as a Me First stat guy right now. That is going to be severely exploited when he plays against quality athletic competition.
Yes he may be drafted on potential. All I care about is the here and now and him contributing to MU winning.
What the hell did you expect him to do in high school? He had absolutely no other talent playing with him on his high school team. He was the guy and had to be a me first stat stuffer. The same could be said for almost every other high d 1 player. This Marquette team is young and has played two fricking games. The talent is obviously there let them develop and enjoy the ride.
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What the hell did you expect him to do in high school? He had absolutely no other talent playing with him on his high school team. He was the guy and had to be a me first stat stuffer. The same could be said for almost every other high d 1 player. This Marquette team is young and has played two fricking games. The talent is obviously there let them develop and enjoy the ride.
Cmon...don't you know about the pipeline between Rice Lake and the NBA???
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This thread is simply putting the cart before the horse in a big way. Henry isn't anywhere near NBA ready today, let alone Iowa ready............. Lots of learning and improvement to go before ANY discussions of pro level.
Another thread said something about Kaminsky being on the bench in the NBA right now and Henry's not anywhere near Kaminsky in level of play. Yes, he's 6'11" but a much unpolished act. Let's be honest. A lot of skills and mindset need to improve before he's considered for the next level. Let him learn to master this one, first, and that will take time.
Enjoy the ride and he ain't going' nowhere, except to class for a while............
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You fail to remember that the NBA draft purely on potential. HE has shown to be fairly polished and with a very unique skill set for a big man. At 18 he's still got an incredibly high ceiling. He'll be gone unless he desires to stick around and enjoy college or gets injured.
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This thread is simply putting the cart before the horse in a big way. Henry isn't anywhere near NBA ready today, let alone Iowa ready............. Lots of learning and improvement to go before ANY discussions of pro level.
Another thread said something about Kaminsky being on the bench in the NBA right now and Henry's not anywhere near Kaminsky in level of play. Yes, he's 6'11" but a much unpolished act. Let's be honest. A lot of skills and mindset need to improve before he's considered for the next level. Let him learn to master this one, first, and that will take time.
Enjoy the ride and he ain't going' nowhere, except to class for a while............
Are you saying he isn't a one and done? If the draft was held TODAY he would for sure be a top 15 pick. I really don't see the point of bringing up Kaminsky riding the bench cause 4 years from now Ellenson will be 3 years in the league at that point. Kaminsky didn't do anything his freshmen year. Not really comparable players when it comes to NBA potential.
Chad Ford just had HE as the 7th pick in his latest mock.
We are all enjoying the ride but to it is definitely a fair question on whether he is leaving after this year.
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He is one and done unless for some reason he decides to return. I do not get were posters say he needs to work on his body. Just look at him standing next to Fischer. Like a lot of players he probably will need a year or two to get off the NBA bench, but so what. You get paid a lot of money while you are developing. What surprises me is that I find him to be a boring player so far. I thought it would be exciting to watch him, but so far he has not really gotten going. Has mostly missed his 10-15 ft jumpers. He may be as good as Wade (based on draft status), but Wade was a much more exciting player. Watching Wade absolutely faking out his defender is much more exciting than the way Ellenson plays. I also wonder how Ellenson would look playing in a Georgetown style offense where everything runs through a bigman. I think MU needs to utilize him more underneath.
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This thread is simply putting the cart before the horse in a big way. Henry isn't anywhere near NBA ready today, let alone Iowa ready............. Lots of learning and improvement to go before ANY discussions of pro level.
Another thread said something about Kaminsky being on the bench in the NBA right now and Henry's not anywhere near Kaminsky in level of play. Yes, he's 6'11" but a much unpolished act. Let's be honest. A lot of skills and mindset need to improve before he's considered for the next level. Let him learn to master this one, first, and that will take time.
Enjoy the ride and he ain't going' nowhere, except to class for a while............
Again, thanks for the laugh. Scoop is on a roll today.
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Again, thanks for the laugh. Scoop is on a roll today.
I also never understood the philosophy of going against inferior talent in college, coached by assistants more focused on recruiting, and having to pretend to go to class makes someone a better player than getting paid to be a full-time athlete, afford a personal nutritionist/cook, coached by the best in the world, and going against former college All-Americans every day in practice. So if he does need to get better, why not go to the NBA and get better there. Some team will draft him top 15 whether he is ready or not.
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This thread is simply putting the cart before the horse in a big way. Henry isn't anywhere near NBA ready today, let alone Iowa ready............. Lots of learning and improvement to go before ANY discussions of pro level.
Another thread said something about Kaminsky being on the bench in the NBA right now and Henry's not anywhere near Kaminsky in level of play. Yes, he's 6'11" but a much unpolished act. Let's be honest. A lot of skills and mindset need to improve before he's considered for the next level. Let him learn to master this one, first, and that will take time.
Enjoy the ride and he ain't going' nowhere, except to class for a while............
Henry will turn pro when he wants to. If it was today, he would be a lottery pick. If its at the end of the season, he will be a lottery pick. And if it's in 2, 3 or 4 years, he will be a lottery pick..
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Henry will turn pro when he wants to. If it was today, he would be a lottery pick. If its at the end of the season, he will be a lottery pick. And if it's in 2, 3 or 4 years, he will be a lottery pick..
This is the only thing that needs to be said. There will be the typical "he is not ready" posts after every single game regardless of what he does. We are 2/2 in that happening so far this year. Henry is a lottery pick when he decides to leave MU. Hopefully, for our sake, it will be at least one more year after this one.
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This thread is simply putting the cart before the horse in a big way. Henry isn't anywhere near NBA ready today, let alone Iowa ready............. Lots of learning and improvement to go before ANY discussions of pro level.
Another thread said something about Kaminsky being on the bench in the NBA right now and Henry's not anywhere near Kaminsky in level of play. Yes, he's 6'11" but a much unpolished act. Let's be honest. A lot of skills and mindset need to improve before he's considered for the next level. Let him learn to master this one, first, and that will take time.
Enjoy the ride and he ain't going' nowhere, except to class for a while............
Skal Labissiere fouled out tonight with 7 and 4. He's D league material. I'm glad Wojo wasn't on him.
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Skal Labissiere fouled out tonight with 7 and 4. He's D league material. I'm glad Wojo wasn't on him.
Can you imagine if Ellenson had those numbers in a game? Some here would be saying to bench him already.
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Can you imagine if Ellenson had those numbers in a game? Some here would be saying to bench him already.
We have a poster here who already thinks he should be.
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Henry has a way to go to be an NBA Player.In our 2 games, I expected more domination from
him. But then, Diamond Stone didn't light up the college scene last night against Georgetown.
Also Henry didn't play against top HS competition. This is D-! major college BB.
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Henry has a way to go to be an NBA Player.In our 2 games, I expected more domination from
him. But then, Diamond Stone didn't light up the college scene last night against Georgetown.
Also Henry didn't play against top HS competition. This is D-! major college BB.
yeah totally 19.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 3 apg is nowhere near dominant.
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I EXPECTED MORE FROM HENRY. TAKEOVER GAME
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He played AAU ball at the highest level and was on team USA for some tournament. He has played plenty of good competition.
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Henry has played up to my expectations. That said, my expectations are a lot lower than most. I think he will continue to rack up good stats against the weak teams, I expect him to have less impressive stats when he plays more qualified competition and continue to learn what it takes to be a college defensive player. The Big East is a place where every possession is a battle.
Overall I expect him to be Big East Rookie of the Year ,stay with us four years and be Big East Player of the Year as a Senior. He is an excellent recruit for us and I am delighted we have him . As time goes his chemistry with the other players will develop . The best thing I have seen so far from him is that pass to Luke to open the game the other night. That play was something very few big men could even conceptualize much less perfectly execute.
I would like to see the one and done chatter die down. Reality is if he truly is going to be a lottery pick he will go. As was pointed out by several n this thread he can develop his game a lot more and position himself for a big payday sooner as a pro. On the other hand he may very well enjoy the college environment and take it all in as much as he can.
My expectations above are baseline and assume he is enjoying the college experience . My upside projection is that he has a career approaching Tyler Hansbrough in college and some where along the line we get another final four.
In the meantime I hope we beat Iowa and Henry has another solid performance.
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Good lord, this thread is embarrassing.
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I EXPECTED MORE FROM HENRY. TAKEOVER GAME
I expected him to defeat ISIS, cure cancer and get me a night with Scarlett Johansson, so Hankster is falling far short of my expectations, too.
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Henry has played up to my expectations. That said, my expectations are a lot lower than most. I think he will continue to rack up good stats against the weak teams, I expect him to have less impressive stats when he plays more qualified competition and continue to learn what it takes to be a college defensive player. The Big East is a place where every possession is a battle.
Overall I expect him to be Big East Rookie of the Year ,stay with us four years and be Big East Player of the Year as a Senior. He is an excellent recruit for us and I am delighted we have him . As time goes his chemistry with the other players will develop . The best thing I have seen so far from him is that pass to Luke to open the game the other night. That play was something very few big men could even conceptualize much less perfectly execute.
I would like to see the one and done chatter die down. Reality is if he truly is going to be a lottery pick he will go. As was pointed out by several n this thread he can develop his game a lot more and position himself for a big payday sooner as a pro. On the other hand he may very well enjoy the college environment and take it all in as much as he can.
My expectations above are baseline and assume he is enjoying the college experience . My upside projection is that he has a career approaching Tyler Hansbrough in college and some where along the line we get another final four.
In the meantime I hope we beat Iowa and Henry has another solid performance.
I will wager my life savings he doesn't stay 4 years.
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I will wager my life savings he doesn't stay 4 years.
My guess is that's not that large of a bet. ;D
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I will wager my life savings he doesn't stay 4 years.
True Dat
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I think the game against LSU will give a good indication of how good Ellenson is. I think the LSU freshmen is projected to be the top pick in the draft and they have another top 10 freshmen. Ellenson could be the third best player on the floor.
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Henry has a way to go to be an NBA Player.In our 2 games, I expected more domination from
him. But then, Diamond Stone didn't light up the college scene last night against Georgetown.
Also Henry didn't play against top HS competition. This is D-! major college BB.
It all depends on your perspective. Do you consider June 23, 2016 to be a long way to go? Because if he wants to be a NBA player, he'll be one that day if he chooses.
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I think the game against LSU will give a good indication of how good Ellenson is. I think the LSU freshmen is projected to be the top pick in the draft and they have another top 10 freshmen. Ellenson could be the third best player on the floor.
I think the game against LSU will give a good indication of how good Ellenson is. I think the LSU freshmen is projected to be the top pick in the draft and they have another top 10 freshmen. Ellenson could be the third best player on the floor.
This is a good point. I Hope Henry sticks with fundamentals and doesn't get caught up in the hype of the comparison. If Henry does the things he does well consistently in the game his stock could rise. I would prefer to see a lot of post and mid range play , with less bringing the ball up the floor and outside shots.
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The few times Henry brought the ball up the floor had nothing to do with anything. He got a rebound, there was no fast break, a guard wasn't immediately open, he's a decent ballhandler (good for a big) and so he brought it into the frontcourt.
I'd rather not see him then immediately chuck one from deep, though, as he did once against IUPUI. Get it across, get it to a guard, start the offense.
But the actual bringing up the ball? Not an issue whatsoever. It's actually nice to have a big who is capable if an opponent puts on an extreme press.
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I'm getting a Brian Butch vibe on HE, that his ceiling may be lower than we think because of a lack of lateral quickness. He's a worse athlete than I thought he'd be.
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I'm getting a Brian Butch vibe on HE, that his ceiling may be lower than we think because of a lack of lateral quickness. He's a worse athlete than I thought he'd be.
Ellenson will get as many points in 5 games as Butch did in his entire 1st two years on the UW campus.
Quite the comparison.
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I'm getting a Brian Butch vibe on HE, that his ceiling may be lower than we think because of a lack of lateral quickness. He's a worse athlete than I thought he'd be.
Given that Ellenson scored more points in his first college game than Butch had in any game during his first 2 1/2 seasons at Wisconsin, and that Ellenson scored more points in his debut than Butch scored in all but three games of his four-year Bucky career, and that Ellenson had more rebounds in his first college game than Butch did in any game in four years, and that NBA scouts consider Ellenson a likely lottery pick ... well, I don't want to say your post was dopey, but ...
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I'm getting a Brian Butch vibe on HE, that his ceiling may be lower than we think because of a lack of lateral quickness. He's a worse athlete than I thought he'd be.
I'm sorry but in two games I can see why Henry is 10x the player Butch was. Does that mean he doesn't have to work on parts of his game? Absolutely not.
And Stone's post made twitter already.
https://twitter.com/PaintTouches/status/667399495957635072
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I'm sorry but in two games I can see why Henry is 10x the player Butch was. Does that mean he doesn't have to work on parts of his game? Absolutely not.
And Stone's post made twitter already.
https://twitter.com/PaintTouches/status/667399495957635072
Reason #2,017 to avoid Twitter.
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I'm getting a Brian Butch vibe on HE, that his ceiling may be lower than we think because of a lack of lateral quickness. He's a worse athlete than I thought he'd be.
Log off. Christ.
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I'm getting a Brian Butch vibe on HE, that his ceiling may be lower than we think because of a lack of lateral quickness. He's a worse athlete than I thought he'd be.
You just took over the top spot from our buddy Kenosha.
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Given that Ellenson scored more points in his first college game than Butch had in any game during his first 2 1/2 seasons at Wisconsin, and that Ellenson scored more points in his debut than Butch scored in all but three games of his four-year Bucky career, and that Ellenson had more rebounds in his first college game than Butch did in any game in four years, and that NBA scouts consider Ellenson a likely lottery pick ... well, I don't want to say your post was dopey, but ...
Anddddd end of discussion.
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The guy is averaging damn near 20/10 and he's being viewed by some as a disappointment and the next Brian Butch. Pure craziness.
Never change, MUScoop...
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Implying that Henry is going to be as big a disappointment as Butch is asinine. Henry is not a finished product. But, he is better right now than Butch was at any point in his career.
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It's actually sad that this isn't the craziest thing stone cold has said on here
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The guy is averaging damn near 20/10 and he's being viewed by some as a disappointment and the next Brian Butch. Pure craziness.
Never change, MUScoop...
If MUscoop was a person...
(http://www.fallongrace.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/iStock_000017880296Small.jpg)
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HE will be fine. Nice player. I'm not convinced yet he will be a lottery pick like some have touted, but who knows.
The fact that he doesn't play for Becky and didn't wear a bra at Beckyville automatically makes him light years ahead of Butch. I don't think you will see him crying in a locker room like Butch either.
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Butch wasn't even good enough to play his freshman year
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The few times Henry brought the ball up the floor had nothing to do with anything. He got a rebound, there was no fast break, a guard wasn't immediately open, he's a decent ballhandler (good for a big) and so he brought it into the frontcourt.
I'd rather not see him then immediately chuck one from deep, though, as he did once against IUPUI. Get it across, get it to a guard, start the offense.
But the actual bringing up the ball? Not an issue whatsoever. It's actually nice to have a big who is capable if an opponent puts on an extreme press.
Nothing wrong with Bringing it up the court, but I would prefer to see the ball move up the court through passes . Greatest big man ball handler ever was Magic Johnson and he always first looked to move the ball up passing it.
With Henry's height he could make some really nice passes in transition.
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Yeah, but Danny Manning would lead the break. So there is precedence for Henry bringing the ball up under the right circumstances.
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Yeah, but Danny Manning would lead the break. So there is precedence for Henry bringing the ball up under the right circumstances.
Yes , I am saying under the right circumstances bring it up. Just prefer to see the ball moving by passing as primary means.
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If MUscoop was a person...
(http://www.fallongrace.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/iStock_000017880296Small.jpg)
In today's world, don't we need to be a bit more progressive?
(https://ghettoheiress.files.wordpress.com/2015/06/grumpy-old-black-man.jpg?w=714)
(http://thatretiredlady.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/pict-grandma-lois.jpg)
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Current Draft Express has HE going 8th. The same that said Blue would go had he stayed for his senior season. Take it as you will.
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#3 on Fox Sports mock draft dated today.
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-ben-simmons-skal-labissiere-jamal-murray-111915
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#3 on Fox Sports mock draft dated today.
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-ben-simmons-skal-labissiere-jamal-murray-111915
Typical Fox right-wing nonsense favoring the privileged white man.
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#3 on Fox Sports mock draft dated today.
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-ben-simmons-skal-labissiere-jamal-murray-111915
I think Simmons, Laissiere and Murray are clearly the top 3, but Henry is as good as anyone else.
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Typical Fox right-wing nonsense favoring the privileged white man.
It's considered "privileged" to grow up in Wisconsin these days?
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Henry has a lot of skills, but I rather see him under the basket than at the three point line. They should do everything possible to get the ball to him within 10 ft of basket and have Fischer on the opposite side of basket. They did that last year with Fischer and Taylor. Taylor had some nice passes from Fischer right at the hoop.
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I'll bet $100 any poster here Henry Ellenson will not match Butch's career numbers in conference when averaged out or be a top 20 pick in the NBA draft. Takers?
So he has to do both for you to win.
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I'll bet $100 any poster here Henry Ellenson will not match Butch's career numbers in conference or be a top 20 pick in the NBA draft. Takers?
$100 for charity and I'm in. Please send your donation to the Ronald McDonald House of Eastern Wisconsin.
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I don't like Ronald McDonald, looks like a pedophile. Pick another cause.
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I'll donate all my winnings to the NRA. You're welcome.
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I like Henry and hope he makes big improvement but there's no way I see him as even a 1st round pick right now.
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No really, quick speak up...my observation was so out of line.
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It was. Ellenson is going to be just fine.
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Brian Butch was just fine. I'm seeing similar out of HE.
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Brian Butch was just fine. I'm seeing similar out of HE.
I have said since this summer , Henry will be with us for four years. I have him at a slightly higher trajectory than you do, but not significantly greater.
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It's looking like a more similar comparison may be Sam Okey.
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there is no way in hell HE is going pro this year!!!
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Henry will need three years of college before he sits and learns for two years in the NBA. The fact that Wojo has sorrounded him with some of the worst shooters in the country won't help his cause.
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You try getting double and triple teamed because your teammates can't shoot. Sticking with my 2 year prediction.
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Henry will need three years of college before he sits and learns for two years in the NBA. The fact that Wojo has sorrounded him with some of the worst shooters in the country won't help his cause.
To be fair, some of the kids that surround him were very good high school shooters. It's early, let's see how things go.
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To be fair, some of the kids that surround him were very good high school shooters. It's early, let's see how things go.
True. But this team is not even competitive now.
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Y'all just gotta take a powder break. Chit, we get our first 5 star dude in decades and people here flip 'cause he ain't Lebron's clone or on the cover of SI yet. If ya don't see the basketball ability and potential in Henry's game, even now, ya just don't know stink 'bout basketball. Ellenson farts out more skills in a day than most playas show in 4 years of college hoops, ai na?
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Doc, you know your stuff. The kid is next level kid and let's enjoy his time here. He flat out is a player and I am pulling for him.
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Y'all just gotta take a powder break. Chit, we get our first 5 star dude in decades and people here flip 'cause he ain't Lebron's clone or on the cover of SI yet. If ya don't see the basketball ability and potential in Henry's game, even now, ya just don't know stink 'bout basketball. Ellenson farts out more skills in a day than most playas show in 4 years of college hoops, ai na?
Yup.
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Henry could be like Dominic James. The longer he stays in college the more his value goes down.
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Y'all just gotta take a powder break. Chit, we get our first 5 star dude in decades and people here flip 'cause he ain't Lebron's clone or on the cover of SI yet. If ya don't see the basketball ability and potential in Henry's game, even now, ya just don't know stink 'bout basketball. Ellenson farts out more skills in a day than most playas show in 4 years of college hoops, ai na?
Agreed that he has lots of talent. Also has lots to learn, including down low play and defense. He hangs too much on the perimeter. Down low, he should be able to score almost at will.
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Not! He needs to learn to play as a power forward and his defense is no better than Heldts is. I don't think we need to always run the offense thru him, don't let him launch threes until he has proven he can score inside 10 feet first!
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Not! He needs to learn to play as a power forward and his defense is no better than Heldts is. I don't think we need to always run the offense thru him, don't let him launch threes until he has proven he can score inside 10 feet first!
They look to me like a slow version of Wisconsin. Farm boys from Wisconsin in need of a good "wood sheading".
Or I could say, that to me, they look like an inexperienced Duke bench.
Only time will bell, at least they are starting from the bottom with nowhere to go but up.
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This board becomes jscomments 2.0 when we're bad. Jesus Christ.
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I'm getting a Brian Butch vibe on HE, that his ceiling may be lower than we think because of a lack of lateral quickness. He's a worse athlete than I thought he'd be.
I don't think of him as an athlete, but rather as a basketball player.
He does not seem to me to play subconsciously, he is thinking out there and he is not quick to react. He has to play faster than he can think. He is not yet a natural, it may come, we shall see.
The entire team needs to learn to play the game....not think the game.
It is like trying to think thru a golf swing. It has to happen so fast that you can't think just let it happen.
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50 NBA Scouts expected tonight to watch Simmons, Ellenson. Per Adam Zagoria.
https://twitter.com/AdamZagoria/status/668775987220512768 (https://twitter.com/AdamZagoria/status/668775987220512768)
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50 NBA Scouts expected tonight to watch Simmons, Ellenson. Per Adam Zagoria.
https://twitter.com/AdamZagoria/status/668775987220512768 (https://twitter.com/AdamZagoria/status/668775987220512768)
Well that's a slap in the face to Blakeney who I'm sure has NBA aspirations as well
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This will be a fun thread to pull up at year-end since both sides are making specific predictions. Some hear are saying no way he will be drafted in the lottery/first round in June. Me and other saying no way he doesn't if he chooses.
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Well that's a slap in the face to Blakeney who I'm sure has NBA aspirations as well
Blakeney is actually the one that worries me tonight. I could very well see Wojo going to a zone against LSU. Our man defense isn't cutting it and LSU will be in an unfamiliar arena for the first time, so the shooting angles will change. Force them to make threes, which is one of Blakeney's specialties. If we do go zone, he's the one that could really punish us.
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Blakeney is actually the one that worries me tonight. I could very well see Wojo going to a zone against LSU. Our man defense isn't cutting it and LSU will be in an unfamiliar arena for the first time, so the shooting angles will change. Force them to make threes, which is one of Blakeney's specialties. If we do go zone, he's the one that could really punish us.
I actually agree. Personally I'd prefer to take on Hornsby (thank god he's out those two would've been too much) than Blakeney. Shocked at how proficient he's been on offense and there's been like no coverage about it.
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I actually agree. Personally I'd prefer to take on Hornsby (thank god he's out those two would've been too much) than Blakeney. Shocked at how proficient he's been on offense and there's been like no coverage about it.
Yeah, amazing that a kid averaging 19.3 ppg/5.3 rpg while shooting over 47% beyond the arc is being ignored. That's what happens when you play next to Ben Simmons, I guess.
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He isn't being ignored. This is what the tweet said:
"Nearly 50 NBA scouts will be at Barclays Center today/tom for Ben Simmons, Henry Ellenson and more"
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He isn't being ignored. This is what the tweet said:
"Nearly 50 NBA scouts will be at Barclays Center today/tom for Ben Simmons, Henry Ellenson and more"
In other works, Hornsby is the Professor and/or Mary Ann of the prospects.
That's just the way it is....
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In other works, Hornsby is the Professor and/or Mary Ann of the prospects.
That's just the way it is....
I see what you did there. That was pretty good.
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Just curious....do you think the LSU board has a 12-page thread titled "Simmons: One and Done or not?"?
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Zags article on Ellenson today:
https://www.sny.tv/college-recruiting/news/marquettes-ellenson-heading-towards-big-east-rookie-of-the-year-award-nba-lottery-pick/164526602?tcid=tw_article_164526602
"Ellenson is Top 10," one NBA scout said. "Scores inside and out, rebounds, young, big and improving."
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He gowne.
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Zags article on Ellenson today:
https://www.sny.tv/college-recruiting/news/marquettes-ellenson-heading-towards-big-east-rookie-of-the-year-award-nba-lottery-pick/164526602?tcid=tw_article_164526602
"Ellenson is Top 10," one NBA scout said. "Scores inside and out, rebounds, young, big and improving."
Clearly that NBA scout doesn't realize that his rebounds aren't difficult enough.
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I'm glad this was bumped. Because if there is one subject that hasn't been discussed enough on Scoop, this is it.
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I'm glad this was bumped. Because if there is one subject that hasn't been discussed enough on Scoop, this is it.
It's in its own thread and has an updated article. You don't have to read it if you don't want.
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It's in its own thread and has an updated article. You don't have to read it if you don't want.
Chillax, Sultan. I was just being hilarious.
You can stop laughing hysterically now.
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Clearly that NBA scout doesn't realize that his rebounds aren't difficult enough.
And that he 'wont be any good' in his first year.
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He gowne.
I know you keep saying this and there was a point in time at the beginning of the season and during his recruiting process when you were asbolutely correct but do not underestimate how close he is with his family, just sayin'
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HE'll be able ta buy a new family, ai na?
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4ever
Could not have said it better myself. Well done!!
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HE'll be able ta buy a new family, ai na?
(http://i.imgur.com/EucIfYY.gif)
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He gowne.
Yep,but hey...it was fun while it lasted...kind of?
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19th in this draft
http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft
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19th in this draft
http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft
Pretty sure this one is known as one of the least reliable mocks. draftexpress is generally the best (has Henry at 6).
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Yep,but hey...it was fun while it lasted...kind of?
+1. sadness
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Pretty sure this one is known as one of the least reliable mocks. draftexpress is generally the best (has Henry at 6).
Any mock draft that puts Grayson Allen ahead of Henry is completely unreliable.
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Any mock draft that puts Grayson Allen ahead of Henry is completely unreliable.
Yep, draftexpress has Grayson at 25.... in the 2017 draft.
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I know you keep saying this and there was a point in time at the beginning of the season and during his recruiting process when you were asbolutely correct but do not underestimate how close he is with his family, just sayin'
He is very close with his family, and he'll use his cool millions of dollars to pay off any types of debts they may have and buy them a nice house to enjoy the rest of their lives in.
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He is very close with his family, and he'll use his cool millions of dollars to pay off any types of debts they may have and buy them a nice house to enjoy the rest of their lives in.
I have no idea because I don't know his family.
Many of you assume $$ is the only factor. What if it's not?
What if his parents tell him it's his choice. What if he is having a blast and feels that he has a chance to be NCAA POY next year, while really accomplishing some audacious team goals?
I think it's 93% he is gone, but none of us know.
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Let's say Henry goes #6, for discussion purposes, if he enters the 2016 draft.
Taking the rookie scale at face value:
Year 1 - $2.931M
Year 2 - $3.063M
Opt 3 - $3.195M
Opt 4 - $4.051M
Qual 5 - $5.404M
Total = $18.644M
If he delayed until 2017 but remained #6 overall, the five year total rises nominally to $19.298M, i.e. he would make an additional $654,000 over five years by delaying his entry into the league. So there really isn't any financial incentive in staying in school if he's going to be a mid-level lottery pick.
If HE doesn't declare this year, publicly, he'll probably say that he wants to win an NCAA Championship or play one more year with his brother, etc.; however, the real reason would be to work on his game.
Of course, lottery picks are only two-year contracts, meaning if HE flames out after year 2, he's still guaranteed at least $6 million over the next two years. However, if HE believes he could improve to being a top 3 pick, he would improve his 5-year earnings to $24-32M, i.e. if he can improve his draft position in 2017, it's worth up to an additional $13.4M over five years.
However, as astute MU alums know all too well (lately), the real money isn't in lottery contracts, it's in extensions and/or free agency. Of course, delaying his entry into the draft until 2017 means delaying his entry into FA by a year; however, if HE believes he has not hit a ceiling in college, delaying his entry into the draft may increase his chances of making it to FA. Even lottery picks will flame out and more times than not, it's the early entrants when they do... could they have improved their career prospects by waiting another year? Perhaps. But they also run the risk of exposing themselves in their sophomore or junior years (see: James, Dominic). It's a calculated risk, no doubt; however, only a clear-headed player can truly judge whether their confidence/talent levels are requisite for a long career in the NBA, and fortunately, Henry seems like he has his head on straight (not to mention, he's surrounded by people looking out for his best interest, not their own).
In short, $6M is a heck of a lot of money simply for playing a game; but if you're not quite ready for the league (which is not an observation regarding HE, strictly a hypothetical), staying in college that extra year might be worth anywhere from $18M to $God-only-knows-what over your career.
Henry will make the right decision in time. Regardless, this year has been great for him... and despite my wish that it could have been better for the team, I hope that there will be lasting benefit to HE's presence even if he is 1-and-done.
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The biggest factor for staying might be that he likes playing for Wojo and of course with his teammates. I have no idea, if he likes playing for Wojo.
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Let's say Henry goes #6, for discussion purposes, if he enters the 2016 draft.
Taking the rookie scale at face value:
Year 1 - $2.931M
Year 2 - $3.063M
Opt 3 - $3.195M
Opt 4 - $4.051M
Qual 5 - $5.404M
Total = $18.644M
If he delayed until 2017 but remained #6 overall, the five year total rises nominally to $19.298M, i.e. he would make an additional $654,000 over five years by delaying his entry into the league. So there really isn't any financial incentive in staying in school if he's going to be a mid-level lottery pick.
If HE doesn't declare this year, publicly, he'll probably say that he wants to win an NCAA Championship or play one more year with his brother, etc.; however, the real reason would be to work on his game.
Of course, lottery picks are only two-year contracts, meaning if HE flames out after year 2, he's still guaranteed at least $6 million over the next two years. However, if HE believes he could improve to being a top 3 pick, he would improve his 5-year earnings to $24-32M, i.e. if he can improve his draft position in 2017, it's worth up to an additional $13.4M over five years.
However, as astute MU alums know all too well (lately), the real money isn't in lottery contracts, it's in extensions and/or free agency. Of course, delaying his entry into the draft until 2017 means delaying his entry into FA by a year; however, if HE believes he has not hit a ceiling in college, delaying his entry into the draft may increase his chances of making it to FA. Even lottery picks will flame out and more times than not, it's the early entrants when they do... could they have improved their career prospects by waiting another year? Perhaps. But they also run the risk of exposing themselves in their sophomore or junior years (see: James, Dominic). It's a calculated risk, no doubt; however, only a clear-headed player can truly judge whether their confidence/talent levels are requisite for a long career in the NBA, and fortunately, Henry seems like he has his head on straight (not to mention, he's surrounded by people looking out for his best interest, not their own).
In short, $6M is a heck of a lot of money simply for playing a game; but if you're not quite ready for the league (which is not an observation regarding HE, strictly a hypothetical), staying in college that extra year might be worth anywhere from $18M to $God-only-knows-what over your career.
Henry will make the right decision in time. Regardless, this year has been great for him... and despite my wish that it could have been better for the team, I hope that there will be lasting benefit to HE's presence even if he is 1-and-done.
Great post. Thanks.
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When you are a guaranteed first round draft pick the most likely way to earn the most money in your career is to get into the NBA and get to your second contract as soon as possible.
Hank is a guaranteed first round pick. The only way Hank does not earn millions of dollars from playing a game is if he comes back for another year that he does not need to make millions of dollars from playing a game and shreds his knee or worse.
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Oh, and he gowne.
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Pretty sure this one is known as one of the least reliable mocks. draftexpress is generally the best (has Henry at 6).
All of these Mock drafts are unreliable. For example Dayonta Davis of Michigan State is not even listed on Draft Express and neither is Ben Bentil. For whatever it is worth the Draft net has a very detailed scouting report on Henry that is worth reading.
Net Net he will be drafted but I would not take stock on any of these services. The members of MU Scoop could put together a more reliable Mock draft than most of these services.
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All of these Mock drafts are unreliable. For example Dayonta Davis of Michigan State is not even listed on Draft Express and neither is Ben Bentil. For whatever it is worth the Draft net has a very detailed scouting report on Henry that is worth reading.
Net Net he will be drafted but I would not take stock on any of these services. The members of MU Scoop could put together a more reliable Mock draft than most of these services.
That's because neither Daytona Davis or Ben Bentil will be in this year's NBA Draft.
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All of these Mock drafts are unreliable. For example Dayonta Davis of Michigan State is not even listed on Draft Express and neither is Ben Bentil. For whatever it is worth the Draft net has a very detailed scouting report on Henry that is worth reading.
Net Net he will be drafted but I would not take stock on any of these services. The members of MU Scoop could put together a more reliable Mock draft than most of these services.
Yeah...that's not accurate either.
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That's because neither Daytona Davis or Ben Bentil will be in this year's NBA Draft.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Bentil there. Not much more he can prove in college.
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All of these Mock drafts are unreliable. For example Dayonta Davis of Michigan State is not even listed on Draft Express and neither is Ben Bentil. For whatever it is worth the Draft net has a very detailed scouting report on Henry that is worth reading.
Net Net he will be drafted but I would not take stock on any of these services. The members of MU Scoop could put together a more reliable Mock draft than most of these services.
Nope
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That's because neither Daytona Davis or Ben Bentil will be in this year's NBA Draft.
Right. Draft express had Davis going top 10 in 2017 & Bentil top 50 in 2017
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That's because neither Daytona Davis or Ben Bentil will be in this year's NBA Draft.
Why do you think that.
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Right. Draft express had Davis going top 10 in 2017 & Bentil top 50 in 2017
Bentil's stock has probably suffered from playing in the shadow of Kris Dunn, however his game has probably improved as a result of playing alongside Kris Dunn. He might get drafted this year if he chooses to go but it would be interesting to watch him next year as the number 1 focus of the opponents defensive gameplan.
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Bentil's stock has probably suffered from playing in the shadow of Kris Dunn, however his game has probably improved as a result of playing alongside Kris Dunn. He might get drafted this year if he chooses to go but it would be interesting to watch him next year as the number 1 focus of the opponents defensive gameplan.
I have watched most of Providence games this year. Bentil put hard work in to improve. Bentil has consistently dominated . He has incredible footwork and is an excellent shooter. I think he is one of the most attractive college players out there.
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Let's say Henry goes #6, for discussion purposes, if he enters the 2016 draft.
Taking the rookie scale at face value:
Year 1 - $2.931M
Year 2 - $3.063M
Opt 3 - $3.195M
Opt 4 - $4.051M
Qual 5 - $5.404M
Total = $18.644M
If he delayed until 2017 but remained #6 overall, the five year total rises nominally to $19.298M, i.e. he would make an additional $654,000 over five years by delaying his entry into the league. So there really isn't any financial incentive in staying in school if he's going to be a mid-level lottery pick.
If HE doesn't declare this year, publicly, he'll probably say that he wants to win an NCAA Championship or play one more year with his brother, etc.; however, the real reason would be to work on his game.
Of course, lottery picks are only two-year contracts, meaning if HE flames out after year 2, he's still guaranteed at least $6 million over the next two years. However, if HE believes he could improve to being a top 3 pick, he would improve his 5-year earnings to $24-32M, i.e. if he can improve his draft position in 2017, it's worth up to an additional $13.4M over five years.
However, as astute MU alums know all too well (lately), the real money isn't in lottery contracts, it's in extensions and/or free agency. Of course, delaying his entry into the draft until 2017 means delaying his entry into FA by a year; however, if HE believes he has not hit a ceiling in college, delaying his entry into the draft may increase his chances of making it to FA. Even lottery picks will flame out and more times than not, it's the early entrants when they do... could they have improved their career prospects by waiting another year? Perhaps. But they also run the risk of exposing themselves in their sophomore or junior years (see: James, Dominic). It's a calculated risk, no doubt; however, only a clear-headed player can truly judge whether their confidence/talent levels are requisite for a long career in the NBA, and fortunately, Henry seems like he has his head on straight (not to mention, he's surrounded by people looking out for his best interest, not their own).
In short, $6M is a heck of a lot of money simply for playing a game; but if you're not quite ready for the league (which is not an observation regarding HE, strictly a hypothetical), staying in college that extra year might be worth anywhere from $18M to $God-only-knows-what over your career.
Henry will make the right decision in time. Regardless, this year has been great for him... and despite my wish that it could have been better for the team, I hope that there will be lasting benefit to HE's presence even if he is 1-and-done.
So, if he can reasonably see himself be a top 3 pick in 2017, versus a run of the mill lottery pick in 2016, he should order a second helping of the Marquette Special.
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I have watched most of Providence games this year. Bentil put hard work in to improve. Bentil has consistently dominated . He has incredible footwork and is an excellent shooter. I think he is one of the most attractive college players out there.
Bentil is my favorite college basketball player this year.
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a run of the mill lottery pick in 2016
Haha, nice phrasing.
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Bentil is my favorite college basketball player this year.
I hope Bentil goes pro so Providence can be as awful as this year's St.Johns
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When you are a guaranteed first round draft pick the most likely way to earn the most money in your career is to get into the NBA and get to your second contract as soon as possible.
Hank is a guaranteed first round pick. The only way Hank does not earn millions of dollars from playing a game is if he comes back for another year that he does not need to make millions of dollars from playing a game and shreds his knee or worse.
Honest question here (I don't know the answer)...
How many times over the past 25 years has a sure-fire lottery pick returned to school for an additional year and suffered a career-ending (or severely-hampering) injury?
Regardless, I would suspect that very few do because athletes know when their body is prone to injuries of this nature. For example, if you're a guy like TJ Ford or Greg Oden, and you have known since high school that your body only has a few years in it, if that even, before it starts breaking down, then sure... you're going to enter the draft as soon as you can. So I imagine that all of these guys with bodies that are prone to injury (and they know it) are entering as soon as possible, while guys like Jared Sullinger didn't start seeing red flags until after the NBA docs pointed them out to him (and probably would have entered early had he known earlier).
On the other hand, I can't imagine very many athletes are entering the draft as soon as they can primarily because they've been reading stories about Bobby Hurley or Maurice Stokes.
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When you are a guaranteed first round draft pick the most likely way to earn the most money in your career is to get into the NBA and get to your second contract as soon as possible.
Hank is a guaranteed first round pick. The only way Hank does not earn
millions of dollars from playing a game is if he comes back for another year that he does not need to make millions of dollars from playing a game and shreds his knee or worse.
Yeah just like what happened to Kris Dunn when he shredded his knee... The kid is going to be fine, if he comes back next year he's basically deferring on $2 million. The money will be there and he knows that, he knows he's good enough, cat wants to play in the tourney and is confident that the money will be there should he decide to come back to school.
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Yeah just like what happened to Kris Dunn when he shredded his knee... The kid is going to be fine, if he comes back next year he's basically deferring on $2 million. The money will be there and he knows that, he knows he's good enough, cat wants to play in the tourney and is confident that the money will be there should he decide to come back to school.
Fans care about NCAAs a lot more than players do.
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I have watched most of Providence games this year. Bentil put hard work in to improve. Bentil has consistently dominated . He has incredible footwork and is an excellent shooter. I think he is one of the most attractive college players out there.
Yep, really only needed to watch 2 Providence games (against MU) to know he is legit.
Just pointing out that it will be interesting to see him play without Dunn because he benefits a ton from Dunn's driving ability. How many buckets did he get underneath the zone against us?
He's a pro either way. Hope he stays to keep Providence respectable. We seem to have their number regardless.
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When you are a guaranteed first round draft pick the most likely way to earn the most money in your career is to get into the NBA and get to your second contract as soon as possible.
In a world where Kwame Brown can sign a 1 / $7 million deal in his 11th year in the NBA with the salary cap at $58 million.
2016-17 cap is projected $90 million
2017-18 cap is project $108 million
Henry is going to get PAID after his rookie contract. I'd get in the league ASAP
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Fans care about NCAAs a lot more than players do.
The players care about the NCAAs more than most fans, the great ones at least. These guys eat sleep and breathe hoops. The people saying Hank is "gowne" coincidently are the same ones that were saying we had no shot at signing Hank to begin with and what was the deciding factor in that decision...family.
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I'll bet $100 any poster here Henry Ellenson will not match Butch's career numbers in conference when averaged out or be a top 20 pick in the NBA draft. Takers?
So he has to do both for you to win.
I like Henry and hope he makes big improvement but there's no way I see him as even a 1st round pick right now.
Blackhat wins this thread
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In a world where Kwame Brown can sign a 1 / $7 million deal in his 11th year in the NBA with the salary cap at $58 million.
2016-17 cap is projected $90 million
2017-18 cap is project $108 million
Henry is going to get PAID after his rookie contract. I'd get in the league ASAP
Slight leap in logic here. Point taken, however.
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Blackhat wins this thread
To review...
Brian Butch as a senior: 12.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg
Henry this year: 16.6 / 10.0
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I think there's a good chance Bentil declares this season. He's having a monster year, his team is ranked, and he's about to lose Kris Dunn as a running mate. I only think his stock can go down from here.
I don't know if Henry could feasibly improve his stock. He's already a top 10 pick. I don't think he's a top 5. Probably in the 6-10 range. From a financial perspective, getting in sooner is the smarter option. But if he wanted to be a top 5 pick, I'm not sure if another year in the NCAA would get him there. He would get the chance to play on a much better team, make the postseason, and his numbers would likely significantly increase. He's shown flashes of outside shooting touch but if he became a consistent shooter from three next season that might help. But any improvement he shows might be counterbalanced by the fact that he's a year older. Its probably more likely that he lowers his draft stock rather than increases it. That, plus the chance for injury makes declaring the smart move for his career.
However, who knows what his motivations are. I don't think Henry himself has decided. I'm expecting him to be gone but would be ecstatic if he came back.
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If immediate money is his biggest motivator -- and I don't blame him if it is -- or if testing himself at the highest level of basketball sooner than later is his biggest motivator (or some combination thereof), Henry goes.
If he is more motivated by other things (college life, the MU experience, playing with Wally, improving as a player before he goes to the NBA, making an NCAA tourney run), Henry stays.
It's pretty simple, yet we try to make it so complicated here.
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Fans care about NCAAs a lot more than players do.
That might be true of some fans and some players ... but when Pitino told his team that it was ineligible for the NCAAs, Damion Lee and Trey Lewis were inconsolable and sobbed like babies.
So either they had just been slicing onions or they cared a little bit.
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I've always tried not to speculate whether Henry will stay or go, but the marquette athletics youtube chanel just posted a highlight video dedicated to Henry. Think it's time to accept the fact that he's probably going.
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Fans care about NCAAs a lot more than players do.
I find this incredibly hard to agree with.
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To review...
Brian Butch as a senior: 12.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg
Henry this year: 16.6 / 10.0
Yea, but Butch played in the Big which is, as we know, a much more talented conference.
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If immediate money is his biggest motivator -- and I don't blame him if it is -- or if testing himself at the highest level of basketball sooner than later is his biggest motivator (or some combination thereof), Henry goes.
If he is more motivated by other things (college life, the MU experience, playing with Wally, improving as a player before he goes to the NBA, making an NCAA tourney run), Henry stays.
It's pretty simple, yet we try to make it so complicated here.
It really is that simple. If Henry values the practical/logical he goes. If he values the emotional/intangible he stays. Anyone who thinks anything else or "knows" what Henry will do is completely fooling themselves.
I'd guess he's gone and am planning accordingly but we'll see.
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Seriously, did I miss something and you are now discussing Wally's status for next year?
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That might be true of some fans and some players ... but when Pitino told his team that it was ineligible for the NCAAs, Damion Lee and Trey Lewis were inconsolable and sobbed like babies.
So either they had just been slicing onions or they cared a little bit.
Lee is a 5th year, he knows how fleeting it is. He came to Louisville to play. But in general, fans always care more about performance than players. To players it is a job. Certainly for college players it's less so than pro but it's still a job and stepping stone to something greater. Whereas for me, Marquette basketball means an inordinate amount.
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Does the benefit of him staying outweigh the benefits of him leaving? Abolutely not...
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It wouldn't surprise me to see Bentil there. Not much more he can prove in college.
I would love to see him go because that all but guarantees we're better than them next year. But he wouldn't be a first round pick, which means he's not guaranteed to be paid in the NBA next year. That's almost as big of a risk as a top 10 pick (see: Hank) staying in college.
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If immediate money is his biggest motivator -- and I don't blame him if it is -- or if testing himself at the highest level of basketball sooner than later is his biggest motivator (or some combination thereof), Henry goes.
If he is more motivated by other things (college life, the MU experience, playing with Wally, improving as a player before he goes to the NBA, making an NCAA tourney run), Henry stays.
It's pretty simple, yet we try to make it so complicated here.
Yep.
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I would love to see him go because that all but guarantees we're better than them next year. But he wouldn't be a first round pick, which means he's not guaranteed to be paid in the NBA next year. That's almost as big of a risk as a top 10 pick (see: Hank) staying in college.
I think Bentil will be a high first round pick. He has what the pros need.
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Fans care about NCAAs a lot more than players do.
Lee is a 5th year, he knows how fleeting it is. He came to Louisville to play. But in general, fans always care more about performance than players. To players it is a job. Certainly for college players it's less so than pro but it's still a job and stepping stone to something greater. Whereas for me, Marquette basketball means an inordinate amount.
How many college basketball players have you known personally? Because I've known a few dozen, and not a single one of them would agree with anything you just said.
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Lee is a 5th year, he knows how fleeting it is. He came to Louisville to play. But in general, fans always care more about performance than players. To players it is a job. Certainly for college players it's less so than pro but it's still a job and stepping stone to something greater. Whereas for me, Marquette basketball means an inordinate amount.
Rubbish.
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I think Bentil will be a high first round pick. He has what the pros need.
Agreed. Honestly, I think he looks like a top-10 pick right now. Only a sophomore, improving by leaps and bounds. He looks like the ideal NBA stretch 4. Great footwork, can shoot from outside, and has a great frame.
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Agreed. Honestly, I think he looks like a top-10 pick right now. Only a sophomore, improving by leaps and bounds. He looks like the ideal NBA stretch 4. Great footwork, can shoot from outside, and has a great frame.
I think it's funny that we all think Bentil is a good outside shooter but Henry isn't when Bentil shoots just 2 percent higher on the same amount of attempts.
Not necessarily directing this at you. I've seen a ton of comments about Bentil's shooting over the past week and he's just not consistent from deep right now.
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I think it's funny that we all think Bentil is a good outside shooter but Henry isn't when Bentil shoots just 2 percent higher on the same amount of attempts.
Not necessarily directing this at you. I've seen a ton of comments about Bentil's shooting over the past week and he's just not consistent from deep right now.
No, he's not, and neither is Henry. But assessing them as collegiate three point shooters now (neither are very good) and evaluating them for the next level are two different things. If I'm a GM and see a kid at that size hitting 30% on a relatively high volume, I'd consider that a plus. Obviously not on a Steve Novak level, but something that we can work with knowing their range extends to the arc.
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I think it's funny that we all think Bentil is a good outside shooter but Henry isn't when Bentil shoots just 2 percent higher on the same amount of attempts.
Not necessarily directing this at you. I've seen a ton of comments about Bentil's shooting over the past week and he's just not consistent from deep right now.
The point is he shoots 82 percent from the line, has enough of a 3 point capability to be respected which gives him lanes to drive and is an animal on the inside with incredible footwork and an NBA ready body. Not much more one can ask for .
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If immediate money is his biggest motivator -- and I don't blame him if it is -- or if testing himself at the highest level of basketball sooner than later is his biggest motivator (or some combination thereof), Henry goes.
If he is more motivated by other things (college life, the MU experience, playing with Wally, improving as a player before he goes to the NBA, making an NCAA tourney run), Henry stays.
It's pretty simple, yet we try to make it so complicated here.
This
... but even if he's drafted in the top 10, he's not going to see much time unless he goes to D league. So it would be money (yes), competition (no) and I'll venture that the NCAA life is a lot more fun than the D league life even if you're on first round guaranteed money.
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Bentil's stock has probably suffered from playing in the shadow of Kris Dunn, however his game has probably improved as a result of playing alongside Kris Dunn. He might get drafted this year if he chooses to go but it would be interesting to watch him next year as the number 1 focus of the opponents defensive gameplan.
Kris Dunn has resulted in Bentil being scouted numerous times. Therefore, I think the NBA has a pretty good handle on him. They look at whether you are athletic enough, big enough, coachable, skilled and not necessarily how many points you are averaging.
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This
... but even if he's drafted in the top 10, he's not going to see much time unless he goes to D league. So it would be money (yes), competition (no) and I'll venture that the NCAA life is a lot more fun than the D league life even if you're on first round guaranteed money.
Why do people think that Henry is going to lack for quality playing time in the NBA? He's not a tweener. He's got good size, a very nice shot that will only increase in range when he gets more coaching, and he's got the frame to add muscle. Every defense right now is throwing double teams at him whenever he touches the ball. That's not going to happen in the NBA.
I think we are trying a little too hard to find flaws and be critical of the guy.
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Why do people think that Henry is going to lack for quality playing time in the NBA? He's not a tweener. He's got good size, a very nice shot that will only increase in range when he gets more coaching, and he's got the frame to add muscle. Every defense right now is throwing double teams at him whenever he touches the ball. That's not going to happen in the NBA.
I think we are trying a little too hard to find flaws and be critical of the guy.
I do respect your point and can't wait personally for another MU alum to achieve success in the NBA. Two simple words counter your point: David Lee.
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I do respect your point and can't wait personally for another MU alum to achieve success in the NBA. Two simple words counter your point: David Lee.
I guess I don't understand the reference. David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star. I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.
He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.
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I guess I don't understand the reference. David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star. I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.
He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.
Indeed, there are many better examples than David Lee if one wants to minimize Ellenson's chances. How about, say, Darius Miles? No. 3 overall pick in 2000 straight out of high school, considered a bust within 4 years; but even he hung around on NBA rosters for 8 seasons, made a crap-load of money and will get a huge pension. Or maybe Adam Morrison, No. 3 overall pick in 2006 but didn't make it past his rookie contract.
David Lee? Thousands upon thousands of today's college players would LOVE to have Lee's career and earnings.
As for Henry having to go to the D-League ...
Not many lottery picks are dispatched to D-League as rookies, though it does happen. Noah Vonleh, No. 9 pick by Hornets in 2014, was hurt in training camp, couldn't make the active roster after healing and spent most of the 2014-15 season in the D-League. He was traded to Portland in the offseason and he now starts for the Blazers, though he has modest stats and is averaging only about 16 mpg. He actually might be a pretty good "worst-case scenario" example of what could happen to Henry. More likely, Henry will be with his NBA team all season, as is the norm.
Of course, a lot will depend on the team Henry goes to. Is it stocked with similar players? Is it a legit playoff contender that can't afford to teach Henry on the fly and needs the roster spot for, say, a guard? Also, it will depend on Henry staying healthy and avoiding a situation such as Vonleh's.
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Excellent point. Vonleh is an excellent example about a worst case scenario. Similar size and skill set to Henry. And Vonleh will be in the league for a long time. It may take him awhile to hit his stride, but he's getting paid along the way.
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D League? What are you watching?
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D League? What are you watching?
I think a lot of people discount how much Henry is being asked to do. He has to play beyond himself to make up for the roster around him. As a result, he is more inefficient than he would be on a tournament team.
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I guess I don't understand the reference. David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star. I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.
He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.
David Lee will make 86 million in his career after his contract is up. 86 million. His salary alone for this year is 15.4 million.
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D League? What are you watching?
We have a tendency here to undervalue our best players and overvalue our worst ones, if you haven't noticed.
D-Wade being the big exception, because how the hell could you undervalue that guy?
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This is my last post on HE. Anyone that does not understand how impressive his numbers are this season are complete idiots, know nothing about basketball or delusional. He is far from perfect player but I doubt that I will ever see freshman at MU put up those type numbers ever again. In addition, I think he does it with about 90% effort out there.
All I can say is that I am very happy HE made the decision to attend MU and play ball. Enjoyed my limited time talking with him and his family at a couple of events and hopes he proves "D" League faction of scoop a thing or two about basketball. Seriously guys, it is a very easy game to understand. I am living proof of that.
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We have a tendency here to undervalue our best players and overvalue our worst ones, if you haven't noticed.
D-Wade being the big exception, because how the hell could you undervalue that guy?
Not disputing this, but examples?
EDIT: Pat on back for "founding" post.
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I guess I don't understand the reference. David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star. I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.
He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.
Sultan: You're right... I wan't clear enough. David Lee has been successful, but right now he's a massively gifted offensive player who can't play D and doesn't rebound well enough for his position, so he can't get off the bench. The NBA has changed over the last few years, and the value of Defense has increased - especially for young players and role players - while advanced stats are used more and more to determine a player's contribution and worth. My comparison was to David Lee right now, in the NBA of right now. My point is that HE needs to improve his defense or he won't get off the bench, regardless of how gifted he is offensively. He could gain time - as I've said in previous posts - based on his rebounding talent alone, if his rebounding skills translate to the NBA level.
I do hope he is successful if he jumps, and agree that from a financial perspective it would be hard to resist.
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It depends on what drives Henry. If he goes pro, he's a 10 minute per game player in 2016 if he goes pro. His defense is a liability, as is his ball-handling and 3-point shooting. Heck, he doesn't finish at the rim all that well. But a team drafting him isn't looking for HE in 2016-17, they're looking for the long-haul.
If he comes back for a year, he could jump in 2017-18 as an immediate 20-25 minute per game contributor.
Remember, Wade was at MU for 3 years, Butler and Crowder left after senior year. There's something to be said for the maturation that can occur in college
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David Lee will make 86 million in his career after his contract is up. 86 million. His salary alone for this year is 15.4 million.
You have to be joking! Seriously, I know his solo career wasn't awesome but Diamond Dave is worth $60M and I'll fight any man that says VanHalen was 1/10th as good with Sammy Hagar.
*also, not directed specifically at you, this thread is beyond absurd.
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Just freaking enjoy him while we can. He is gone. Please focus on a DePaul or Dayton thread instead.
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It depends on what drives Henry. If he goes pro, he's a 10 minute per game player in 2016 if he goes pro. His defense is a liability, as is his ball-handling and 3-point shooting. Heck, he doesn't finish at the rim all that well. But a team drafting him isn't looking for HE in 2016-17, they're looking for the long-haul.
If he comes back for a year, he could jump in 2017-18 as an immediate 20-25 minute per game contributor.
Obviously, this is opinion, and you don't try to suggest it's anything but.
Had Joakim Noah left Florida after his sophomore year, there was much talk that he would have been the No. 1 pick. Certainly top-5. Instead he stayed to help Fla win another title but he didn't have quite as good a year individually. He dropped to No. 9 overall and he had trouble finding a role with the Bulls for two full years.
So there is no guarantee that staying will make him a better player or more attractive to the pros. Nor is there any guarantee that him leaving will help or hurt him in the pros.
The only guarantees are 1, Hank will get very rich very quickly whenever he turns pro; 2, We would be a much better team with him next year.
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I guess I don't understand the reference. David Lee has been in the league 10+ seasons and is a two time All Star. I think if Henry follows in those footsteps, that would be considered a very successful career.
He got a slow start to his career, but still got 15+ minutes off the bench as a rookie.
I think Henry will do pretty good in the pros, but if he leaves this year I suspect his first year will be pretty painful to watch unless he suddenly learns to hit the 3 consistently. Hope I'm wrong, but yes he could have a very solid career.
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I think Henry will do pretty good in the pros, but if he leaves this year I suspect his first year will be pretty painful to watch unless he suddenly learns to hit the 3 consistently. Hope I'm wrong, but yes he could have a very solid career.
Can't find the bet right now but just to clarify, if he plays in less than 35 games and averages more than 5 points per game in those 35 the bet is just off or do you win the bet?
I'd put $100 to a charity of the winner's choosing on him averaging over 5 ppg while playing over 35 games, but if he's over 5 ppg but under 35 GP it's a push, while under 5 ppg whether he plays 35+ games or less I'd lose the bet.
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Can't find the bet right now but just to clarify, if he plays in less than 35 games and averages more than 5 points per game in those 35 the bet is just off or do you win the bet?
I'd put $100 to a charity of the winner's choosing on him averaging over 5 ppg while playing over 35 games, but if he's over 5 ppg but under 35 GP it's a push, while under 5 ppg whether he plays 35+ games or less I'd lose the bet.
Bet is, he averages less than 5 points per game I win, but he has to play at least 35 games. If he averages more than 5 points per game or less than 5 points per game, but less than 35 games played. No one wins. If he averages more than 5 points per game and more than 35 games, you win.
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David Lee will make 86 million in his career after his contract is up. 86 million. His salary alone for this year is 15.4 million.
While David Lee's number have been down the last two years, he averaged a near double-double for 8 consecutive years, including between 16 and 20 ppg for 6 of those years. His career averages are 14.7 ppg and 9.5 rpg. No bad at all.
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Bet is, he averages less than 5 points per game I win, but he has to play at least 35 games. If he averages more than 5 points per game or less than 5 points per game, but less than 35 games played. No one wins. If he averages more than 5 points per game and more than 35 games, you win.
Deal.
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Why do people think that Henry is going to lack for quality playing time in the NBA? He's not a tweener. He's got good size, a very nice shot that will only increase in range when he gets more coaching, and he's got the frame to add muscle. Every defense right now is throwing double teams at him whenever he touches the ball. That's not going to happen in the NBA.
I think we are trying a little too hard to find flaws and be critical of the guy.
Because the thought of him guarding NBA 4s is nearly comical.
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Bet is, he averages less than 5 points per game I win, but he has to play at least 35 games. If he averages more than 5 points per game or less than 5 points per game, but less than 35 games played. No one wins. If he averages more than 5 points per game and more than 35 games, you win.
What if he averages 12.1 ppg in 34 games before getting injured? Any total of 410 or more points would project to 5.0 ppg in an 82-game season.
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What if he averages 12.1 ppg in 34 games before getting injured? Any total of 410 or more points would project to 5.0 ppg in an 82-game season.
Ha
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What if he averages 12.1 ppg in 34 games before getting injured? Any total of 410 or more points would project to 5.0 ppg in an 82-game season.
I'm good with where it's at. My thought was if he averages under 5 ppg and plays in under 35 games then he most likely spent most of his season in the D League. If that's the case and I can get out with a push so be it, even though in reality I deserve to lose that bet. I don't expect that to be the case (which is why I'm betting he scores over 5 ppg next year) but doesn't hurt to not have to worry about that.
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Because the thought of him guarding NBA 4s is nearly comical.
Oh my, that's seriously frightening.
If he ends up on a Thibs-coached team, especially, he'll be lucky to see the floor at at all next year.
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Because the thought of him guarding NBA 4s is nearly comical.
He'll be fine.
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He'll be fine.
How could he not be with eight figures in his pocket?
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He'll be fine.
Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here.
I just don't think he'll see the court much next year. Maybe even the year after. Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are.
Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA. Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now. ABUSED.
He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game. But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.
Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star. I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team. I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player. In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.
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I think you are severely underestimating Henry's skills and his ability to grow as an NBA player. I'm not saying he will be a super-star or anything like that, but he will be a rotation guy from early on and will increase his range over time.
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I think you are severely underestimating Henry's skills and his ability to grow as an NBA player. I'm not saying he will be a super-star or anything like that, but he will be a rotation guy from early on and will increase his range over time.
Nah. I'm not underestimating his skills. He's a really really good offensive player. I just don't think he is remotely ready to guard NBA 4s.
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Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here.
I just don't think he'll see the court much next year. Maybe even the year after. Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are.
Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA. Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now. ABUSED.
He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game. But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.
Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star. I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team. I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player. In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.
I agree with every word of this.
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Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here.
I just don't think he'll see the court much next year. Maybe even the year after. Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are.
Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA. Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now. ABUSED.
He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game. But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.
Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star. I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team. I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player. In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.
I guess I don't get why him not being NBA ready=staying will be better for him long-term. He will still get 20 minutes a game next year and play twice as many games while learning and developing at the pro-level. Once drafted as a top 10 pick, teams are invested in him long-term. Wojo at most will have him one more year and his main interest is to win, not develop Henry. Yeah, he gets a year of being the man and dominating, but considering he was the man this year would another year really develop him more? He will be playing inferior talent and with inferior coaches (IMO). Honestly, I think there is a better chance of Henry not improving, falling out of the lottery than him improving enough to make up for the lost year of NBA salary/development.
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Just for the heck of it, I looked up Dirk Nowitzki's career stats. I am in no way saying Henry will be the next Dirk. But I, like others, have seen them linked in comparisons, so I looked up Dirk.
As a rookie in the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season, Dirk started about half of Dallas' games and averaged 20 mpg. He scored 8.2 ppg and pulled down 3.4 rpg. He shot only 40.5% overall and, most surprisingly, 20.6% from 3-point range. He also was considered a major defensive liability.
By the following season, he had become a solid pro, and by Year 3, he was considered a star on the rise. He has gone on to have a Hall of Fame career even though he has never been much of a defensive player.
Some might not remember it now, but Dirk was an extremely controversial pick by Don Nelson, who was criticized widely both at the time of the pick and when Dirk wasn't an instant star.
Again, I doubt Henry will be anything close to Dirk. None of the "Next Dirks" ever are. But even HoFers like Dirk often struggle to adjust to NBA life.
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I guess I don't get why him not being NBA ready=staying will be better for him long-term. He will still get 20 minutes a game next year and play twice as many games while learning and developing at the pro-level. Once drafted as a top 10 pick, teams are invested in him long-term. Wojo at most will have him one more year and his main interest is to win, not develop Henry. Yeah, he gets a year of being the man and dominating, but considering he was the man this year would another year really develop him more? He will be playing inferior talent and with inferior coaches (IMO). Honestly, I think there is a better chance of Henry not improving, falling out of the lottery than him improving enough to make up for the lost year of NBA salary/development.
I get that counterargument.
However:
Henry just turned 19 years old. Another year of maturing isn't going to hurt. He will mature in the NBA too, sure, but with many, many more distractions and running the risk of becoming a forgotten guy if he doesn't perform. It happens every single year.
I don't really think being a top 10 pick means a team is invested in a guy long term. Sure, they'd prefer their top picks work, but lottery picks spend years in the D league, get thrown in trades to teams that don't get a rats ass about that, get cut, etc., all the flipping time. This really means nothing.
Henry is going to have a much better supporting cast next year, should he stay at MU. Sure, he was the guy this year. But he's going to be the guy again next year. 20 and 12 isn't a stretch. I think he could conceivably increase his draft stock a few spots, and maybe if he really goes off next year, he's got a chance at being a top 3 pick.
The chances of him falling out the lottery are pretty minimal, IMO. Only way that happens is if he suffers a significant injury, and if that happens, he'll probably stay in college another year anyway to prove he is healthy again as jr. He would still only be 20 years old at the start of his Jr year. Its not like we're talking about a 24 year old guy here.
Injuries are always a risk. Henry could blow his ACL out play in the Vegas summer league, miss all next season and spend the next year in the D league and be a forgotten man. Unlikely, but possible.
Again, as I've said repeatedly, the choice is Henry's and he is likely gone. I would likely be gone too, if I were him. But lets not act like him going pro has no risk associated with it. NBA rookie contracts are guaranteed for 2 years...that's it..2 years. I suspect HE to bet on himself, and he probably should, but another year at MU isn't likely to hurt him NBA prospects.
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Nah. I'm not underestimating his skills. He's a really really good offensive player. I just don't think he is remotely ready to guard NBA 4s.
Frank Kaminsky was a far worse defensive player than Hank. Frank's getting 21 mpg guarding 4s and 5s in the NBA.
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The chances of him falling out the lottery are pretty minimal, IMO.
Agreed. NBA was comfortable drafting him based on potential at the start of the season that won't change after next year.
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This thread has gone from highly speculative (whether or not Henry Ellenson will turn pro following his freshman season) to massively, impossibly speculative (what level of success Henry Ellenson will achieve at the professional level).
Summing up 15+ pages of posts on the first point:
Since Henry is projected as a consensus lottery pick, history suggests that he will declare. The vast majority of players in his position do. But until he either does so or doesn't, nobody knows anything for certain — including quite possibly Henry himself.
On the second point:
Nothing is a sure thing in the NBA. Nothing. Every draft pick is a crap shoot. Former #1 overall Greg Oden never played a full season, logging fewer than 1,000 career points before his body gave out. Meanwhile, nobody — not even the GM responsible for the decision — predicted that Jimmy Butler (a #30 overall pick) would leapfrog his teammate and former #1 pick Derrick Rose to become an All-Star.
You can talk all you want about whether you think he's ready, whose game is similar to his, et cetera. That all means nothing. You don't know. Nobody does. Henry has the skills and potential to be a special player. He also has the potential to suffer a career-ending injury in practice today. Only time will tell what the future holds for him.
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Frank Kaminsky was a far worse defensive player than Hank. Frank's getting 21 mpg guarding 4s and 5s in the NBA.
Valid point, though I would not say "far worse."
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You can talk all you want about whether you think he's ready, whose game is similar to his, et cetera. That all means nothing. You don't know. Nobody does.
Yes, you've captured the essence of Scoop and all message boards, by and large.
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Frank Kaminsky was a far worse defensive player than Hank. Frank's getting 21 mpg guarding 4s and 5s in the NBA.
Frank also stayed in school three years longer than Hank.
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I get that counterargument.
However:
Henry just turned 19 years old. Another year of maturing isn't going to hurt. He will mature in the NBA too, sure, but with many, many more distractions and running the risk of becoming a forgotten guy if he doesn't perform. It happens every single year.
I don't really think being a top 10 pick means a team is invested in a guy long term. Sure, they'd prefer their top picks work, but lottery picks spend years in the D league, get thrown in trades to teams that don't get a rats ass about that, get cut, etc., all the flipping time. This really means nothing.
Henry is going to have a much better supporting cast next year, should he stay at MU. Sure, he was the guy this year. But he's going to be the guy again next year. 20 and 12 isn't a stretch. I think he could conceivably increase his draft stock a few spots, and maybe if he really goes off next year, he's got a chance at being a top 3 pick.
The chances of him falling out the lottery are pretty minimal, IMO. Only way that happens is if he suffers a significant injury, and if that happens, he'll probably stay in college another year anyway to prove he is healthy again as jr. He would still only be 20 years old at the start of his Jr year. Its not like we're talking about a 24 year old guy here.
Injuries are always a risk. Henry could blow his ACL out play in the Vegas summer league, miss all next season and spend the next year in the D league and be a forgotten man. Unlikely, but possible.
Again, as I've said repeatedly, the choice is Henry's and he is likely gone. I would likely be gone too, if I were him. But lets not act like him going pro has no risk associated with it. NBA rookie contracts are guaranteed for 2 years...that's it..2 years. I suspect HE to bet on himself, and he probably should, but another year at MU isn't likely to hurt him NBA prospects.
I agree with most of this, but it's immaterial because of what you say in the last paragraph.
One thing I disagree with is the distractions part. NBA players actually face fewer distractions than college players, who have to juggle academics along with what basically is a full-time job as an athlete.
When you are a pro, you CAN have distractions -- you can do the club scene or you can be very visible to fans through community work or you can sign a bazillion autograph. But you mostly control all that. You can choose to open yourself up to distractions or you largely can choose not to.
College athletes aren't supposed to be able to opt out of half of what they are there for. Again, they aren't supposed to be able to.
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When you are a pro, you CAN have distractions -- you can do the club scene or you can be very visible to fans through community work or you can sign a bazillion autograph. But you mostly control all that. You can choose to open yourself up to distractions or you largely can choose not to.
I suspect most NBA players, especially 19-year-olds in the League, don't understand this.
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I agree with most of this, but it's immaterial because of what you say in the last paragraph.
One thing I disagree with is the distractions part. NBA players actually face fewer distractions than college players, who have to juggle academics along with what basically is a full-time job as an athlete.
When you are a pro, you CAN have distractions -- you can do the club scene or you can be very visible to fans through community work or you can sign a bazillion autograph. But you mostly control all that. You can choose to open yourself up to distractions or you largely can choose not to.
College athletes aren't supposed to be able to opt out of half of what they are there for. Again, they aren't supposed to be able to.
Not exactly true and/or relevant.
Sure, academics are a "distraction" for an athlete in college... but they've been dealing with these distractions for the better part of a decade by the time they're in college, and - suffice to say - if they're in college (i.e. still eligible), it would seem they've become adequately accustomed to the distraction. So is it really a distraction at that point? On the other hand, even the tiniest of "distractions" that come along with being dumped into the real world (with millions in your pocket) is a still a new distraction that forces one to react without having any reference of benefit/consequence.
But that's for the voluntary stuff... there's also the involuntary stuff that one cannot avoid - which is true in both the college and professional ranks - but I would be willing to bet the involuntary distractions at the college level pale in comparison to that which one encounters at the professional level. Not to mention, one cannot opt out of their contractual obligations to show up for promo/sponsor outings, press conferences, PR events, media availability, etc. lest they want a whole new set of distractions.
But Hank can deal with this. Again, he has people around him looking out for his best interests... that's a big advantage most 1-and-done'rs don't have.
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On the second point:
Nothing is a sure thing in the NBA. Nothing. Every draft pick is a crap shoot. Former #1 overall Greg Oden never played a full season, logging fewer than 1,000 career points before his body gave out. Meanwhile, nobody — not even the GM responsible for the decision — predicted that Jimmy Butler (a #30 overall pick) would leapfrog his teammate and former #1 pick Derrick Rose to become an All-Star.
You can talk all you want about whether you think he's ready, whose game is similar to his, et cetera. That all means nothing. You don't know. Nobody does. Henry has the skills and potential to be a special player. He also has the potential to suffer a career-ending injury in practice today. Only time will tell what the future holds for him.
So to further summarize Henry's NBA career potential:
Complete Bust <= Henry <= Hall of Fame
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Not exactly true and/or relevant.
Sure, academics are a "distraction" for an athlete in college... but they've been dealing with these distractions for the better part of a decade by the time they're in college, and - suffice to say - if they're in college (i.e. still eligible), it would seem they've become adequately accustomed to the distraction. So is it really a distraction at that point? On the other hand, even the tiniest of "distractions" that come along with being dumped into the real world (with millions in your pocket) is a still a new distraction that forces one to react without having any reference of benefit/consequence.
But that's for the voluntary stuff... there's also the involuntary stuff that one cannot avoid - which is true in both the college and professional ranks - but I would be willing to bet the involuntary distractions at the college level pale in comparison to that which one encounters at the professional level. Not to mention, one cannot opt out of their contractual obligations to show up for promo/sponsor outings, press conferences, PR events, media availability, etc. lest they want a whole new set of distractions.
But Hank can deal with this. Again, he has people around him looking out for his best interests... that's a big advantage most 1-and-done'rs don't have.
You would be amazed at how boring the lives of most professional athletes are. For every time you hear about Blake Griffin punching out his trainer buddy, there 10,000 incidents of guys in hotel rooms watching game film on iPads, guys calling assistant coaches at midnight to get more shots up, etc.
Not to mention, the NBA has almost a 1:1 player to coach ratio, all of the worries are about distractions are very much overblown. 99% of professional athletes are just that, professional.
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Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here.
I just don't think he'll see the court much next year. Maybe even the year after. Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are.
Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA. Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now. ABUSED.
He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game. But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.
Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star. I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team. I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player. In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.
Pretty much where I am. Doesn't have the quickness to guard a 4, certainly not a 3. I'm not sure he has the range to pull a guy out consistently, which means he will have to do something mid range or down low, where that's going to be a chore. Feels like not many minutes next year (if he goes) and not too much production.
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I'm starting to come to the conclusion that our fanbase is so unfamiliar with having a "one and done" type talent playing at Marquette University, that we have no idea what that talent looks like in action. What did we all expect that the kid would come right in and AVERAGE a double-double??? (Oops, he is doing that).
The pro game is completely different in so many ways than the college game....how one translates to the other is not clearly correlated and its why some guys who slay it in college can't make it in the NBA and why some who are good college players surprise in the pros (look no further than Wes).
The dude is amazing and he just turned 19. The only "eye test" that matters is the ones being administered by NBA scouts...and they have him as a lottery pick.
D-league next year....seriously?
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If he's projected to be a top 10 pick, he'd be stupid to stay in school.
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Pretty much where I am. Doesn't have the quickness to guard a 4, certainly not a 3. I'm not sure he has the range to pull a guy out consistently, which means he will have to do something mid range or down low, where that's going to be a chore. Feels like not many minutes next year (if he goes) and not too much production.
I don't think anyone will disagree he will struggle as a rookie, cause, you know, he will be a 19/20 year old rookie. The question is do you think he will develop better with another year at Marquette being the man with slightly more minutes* or going to the pros to practice against grown, professional athletes every day in practice? And if so, is it enough improvement to bypass a year of salary (~$2.5M for 7th spot) that he probably won't make up unless he goes top 3 ($1.2m raise)?
*I say slightly since he will probably play more total minutes in the NBA due to the longer schedule.
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
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Frank also stayed in school three years longer than Hank.
...and was still a far worse defender after those 3 extra years than Hank is. So what? Frank stayed in college 4 years longer than LeBron, 3 longer than Durant, 1 longer than Wade, 1 longer than Curry, etc.
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I'm starting to come to the conclusion that our fanbase is so unfamiliar with having a "one and done" type talent playing at Marquette University, that we have no idea what that talent looks like in action. What did we all expect that the kid would come right in and AVERAGE a double-double??? (Oops, he is doing that).
The pro game is completely different in so many ways than the college game....how one translates to the other is not clearly correlated and its why some guys who slay it in college can't make it in the NBA and why some who are good college players surprise in the pros (look no further than Wes).
The dude is amazing and he just turned 19. The only "eye test" that matters is the ones being administered by NBA scouts...and they have him as a lottery pick.
D-league next year....seriously?
Solid Bro, hey?
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I'm starting to come to the conclusion that our fanbase is so unfamiliar with having a "one and done" type talent playing at Marquette University, that we have no idea what that talent looks like in action. What did we all expect that the kid would come right in and AVERAGE a double-double??? (Oops, he is doing that).
The pro game is completely different in so many ways than the college game....how one translates to the other is not clearly correlated and its why some guys who slay it in college can't make it in the NBA and why some who are good college players surprise in the pros (look no further than Wes).
The dude is amazing and he just turned 19. The only "eye test" that matters is the ones being administered by NBA scouts...and they have him as a lottery pick.
D-league next year....seriously?
Didn't those same NBA scouts have other lottery picks that went to the D-League?
Cameron Payne
Jeremy Lamb
Noah Vonleh
Jimmer Fredette
etc, etc
Did you know in the 2012 draft alone, of the 30 kids taken....33% were in the D-League within 2 months for at least some period of time.
Or guys like Luke Jackson who was a lottery pick and played all of 59 total games in the first three years of his career.
That being said, I don't think he goes to the D-League at all, but I do think he will have a learning curve for a few years.
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Didn't those same NBA scouts have other lottery picks that went to the D-League?
Cameron Payne
Jeremy Lamb
Noah Vonleh
Jimmer Fredette
etc, etc
Did you know in the 2012 draft alone, of the 30 kids taken....33% were in the D-League within 2 months for at least some period of time.
Or guys like Luke Jackson who was a lottery pick and played all of 59 total games in the first three years of his career.
That being said, I don't think he goes to the D-League at all, but I do think he will have a learning curve for a few years.
But but but LOTTERY PICK!!
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Didn't those same NBA scouts have other lottery picks that went to the D-League?
Cameron Payne
Jeremy Lamb
Noah Vonleh
Jimmer Fredette
etc, etc
Did you know in the 2012 draft alone, of the 30 kids taken....33% were in the D-League within 2 months for at least some period of time.
Or guys like Luke Jackson who was a lottery pick and played all of 59 total games in the first three years of his career.
That being said, I don't think he goes to the D-League at all, but I do think he will have a learning curve for a few years.
Correct me if I'm wrong but i looked up the Dleague stats and I think Vonleh and Payne both only played 2 games. Lamb was the 14th, which is far different that the projected 7th pick of Ellenson. Ok, Jimmer just sucked.
If so, why is it viewed as a bad thing that Ellenson would spend a week or two in the Dleague? Both Payne and Vonleh are developing nicely. I think a year in the league really matured Vonleh and he is started to look useful on the court. Would another year at IU matured him as well? Who knows but I would rather have him hitting the learning curve early instead of playing an another year under Crean relying on his athleticism.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but i looked up the Dleague stats and I think Vonleh and Payne both only played 2 games. Lamb was the 14th, which is far different that the projected 7th pick of Ellenson. Ok, Jimmer just sucked.
If so, why is it viewed as a bad thing that Ellenson would spend a week or two in the Dleague? Both Payne and Vonleh are developing nicely. I think a year in the league really matured Vonleh and he is started to look useful on the court. Would another year at IU matured him as well? Who knows but I would rather have him hitting the learning curve early instead of playing an another year under Crean relying on his athleticism.
The Jimmer Fredette case is very relevant to Henry. Fredette is a prolific scorer but has a reputation for not being able to guard anyone. I have watched several of his D League games and the lack of D is what is holding him back. He is still a scoring machine and very fun to watch.
The defensive issue won't stop someone from drafting Henry but it will ultimately be what makes or breaks him at the next level.
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I'm just wondering if the people who think a guy with the combination of skill and size of Hank will be playing in the D League next year are the same guys who were predicting 6 and 3 out of Hank at MU this year.
Some people really just don't understand the game of high level basketball.
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Yes, being a d-league player making 15k a year in hopes of a longshot bid eventually is nothing like having 10 million guaranteed over 3 years and being given a little time in the d-league to practice against much tougher competition than you would have played in college.
Of course I am hoping Henry stays, but if you are going in the first round it is only logical to go. NBA scouts are good at seeing where you will be at 22 years old once oro coaches have you full-time for a couple of years. It rarely makes logical sense to stay, but I hope he does!
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I'm just wondering if the people who think a guy with the combination of skill and size of Hank will be playing in the D League next year are the same guys who were predicting 6 and 3 out of Hank at MU this year.
Some people really just don't understand the game of high level basketball.
Not to mention, Henry has always played at the highest level he could (Team USA) and with success. The NBA has been watching Henry since he was 15. They're awaiting his arrival.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but i looked up the Dleague stats and I think Vonleh and Payne both only played 2 games. Lamb was the 14th, which is far different that the projected 7th pick of Ellenson. Ok, Jimmer just sucked.
If so, why is it viewed as a bad thing that Ellenson would spend a week or two in the Dleague? Both Payne and Vonleh are developing nicely. I think a year in the league really matured Vonleh and he is started to look useful on the court. Would another year at IU matured him as well? Who knows but I would rather have him hitting the learning curve early instead of playing an another year under Crean relying on his athleticism.
No idea, I was merely offering evidence that the suggestion he could be in the D-League (for however short or long duration) is hardly crazy talk.
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The Jimmer Fredette case is very relevant to Henry. Fredette is a prolific scorer but has a reputation for not being able to guard anyone. I have watched several of his D League games and the lack of D is what is holding him back. He is still a scoring machine and very fun to watch.
The defensive issue won't stop someone from drafting Henry but it will ultimately be what makes or breaks him at the next level.
Interesting argument that you are making. Comparing a 19 yr old 6'10" Freshman PF to a 22 yr old 6'2" SG Senior.
Also, Jimmer is a career 41% shooter (That would put him in the bottom third of all NBAers right now) and <1.5 Ast/to. He is what he is, a great scorer against lesser opponents in the D-league and college. Put him in the pros and he just can't get off the shots he wants. Ellenson's game translates very well and he has legit size. Fredette is up there with the Draymond Green comparisons for me scratching my head.
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The Jimmer Fredette case is very relevant to Henry. Fredette is a prolific scorer but has a reputation for not being able to guard anyone. I have watched several of his D League games and the lack of D is what is holding him back. He is still a scoring machine and very fun to watch.
The defensive issue won't stop someone from drafting Henry but it will ultimately be what makes or breaks him at the next level.
The Jimmer case is not at all relevant to Henry. Jimmer was a volume shooting SG is college who wasn't particularly tall or skilled for the NBA game.
Henry is a 6'10" forward.
Good comparison. ::)
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The Jimmer case is not at all relevant to Henry. Jimmer was a volume shooting SG is college who wasn't particularly tall or skilled for the NBA game.
Henry is a 6'10" forward.
Good comparison. ::)
Yeah that's why such a large number of these posts that claim Hank doesn't have the skills, isn't ready, won't contribute for at least 3 years, could use multiple more years at MU, etc. are not even worth arguing against. When someone makes an argument like Hank is a worse pro prospect than Jimmer, the fact of the matter is that person simply doesn't understand what makes up a quality NBA player.
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wadesworld
Well said!!
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I'm guilty at grasping at straws here, too. Fact of the matter is if I had a rooting interest in another school, I wouldn't think twice about whether Ellenson bolts for the League from a purely rational standpoint. That being said, objectively, there's still a chance he stays given familial ties.
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Ellenson would improve his game, if he came back for his sophomore year. However, his game would improve more practicing with NBA players. The only reason to comeback is that he likes being in college more than he would like making millions..
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Ellenson would improve his game, if he came back for his sophomore year. However, his game would improve more practicing with NBA players. The only reason to comeback is that he likes being in college more than he would like making millions..
Other reasons would include playing with his brother for another year while their parents could also see the together along with the chance of playing in the NCAAs. But, I'm not holding my breath on a potential decision to stay.
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But, I'm not holding my breath on a potential decision to stay.
I hope nobody's holding their breath related to any statement or argument made as part of this thread.
For starters, we won't know the answer to any of these questions at least until the NBA Draft (assuming Henry declares after this season) — more likely well into next season or even beyond (enough time to determine what kind of success Henry has at the NBA level).
That's a long time to hold your breath.
Beyond that, there seems to be an endless supply of "reasons" and "proof" on all sides of this inane topic. The posts continue, the "evidence" stacks up page after page, to what end? It just keeps going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on.
If this thread never ends, how will be able to determine the "truth" of any of the infinite arguments offered here? A profound question, certainly one for the philosophers to ponder.
17 pages of this. Sheesh.
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Beyond that, there seems to be an endless supply of "reasons" and "proof" on all sides of this inane topic. The posts continue, the "evidence" stacks up page after page, to what end? It just keeps going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on.
This could be Scoop's mission statement.
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This could be Scoop's mission statement.
I hate mission statements. Can't we just do like a motto or something?
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This could be Scoop's mission statement.
True. But after reading the same points over and over again, if you haven't convinced anyone, seems like it's time to move on. I'm amazed that anyone is still interested in this topic or honestly feels like they have something new to offer.
If it hasn't all been said many times over in 17 pages, what will it take?
From a broader perspective, what is it about this topic that generated so much more interest than your average new post? Some here seem obsessed with the hypothetical subject of what Henry will or won't do months or years from now — right in the middle of the season, when there is actual, for-real basketball being played, games with real impact on Marquette's current season, and with a real postseason in the balance.
I don't get it.
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True. But after reading the same points over and over again, if you haven't convinced anyone, seems like it's time to move on. I'm amazed that anyone is still interested in this topic or honestly feels like they have something new to offer.
This one might actually be better.
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True. But after reading the same points over and over again, if you haven't convinced anyone, seems like it's time to move on. I'm amazed that anyone is still interested in this topic or honestly feels like they have something new to offer.
If it hasn't all been said many times over in 17 pages, what will it take?
From a broader perspective, what is it about this topic that generated so much more interest than your average new post? Some here seem obsessed with the hypothetical subject of what Henry will or won't do months or years from now — right in the middle of the season, when there is actual, for-real basketball being played, games with real impact on Marquette's current season, and with a real postseason in the balance.
I don't get it.
You weren't here for the Dawson vs. Derrick debates were you? Ellenson's one and done status is NOTHING compared to the nonsense in those threads. And I say that knowing that I was one of the main contributors.
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You weren't here for the Dawson vs. Derrick debates were you? Ellenson's one and done status is NOTHING compared to the nonsense in those threads. And I say that knowing that I was one of the main contributors.
Maybe there's some irresistible force or underlying principle at work — that a message board always requires one inexplicable topic that rolls up post after post, month after month.
I've been following Scoop for years, but rarely felt like contributing anything until this season. Yes, I remember the Dawson vs. Derrick debates; didn't interest me in the least. The choice between two below-average point guards (no matter how hard they play) isn't a choice at all. Nothing anyone could say on the matter would change my mind on that.
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Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here.
I just don't think he'll see the court much next year. Maybe even the year after. Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are.
Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA. Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now. ABUSED.
He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game. But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.
Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star. I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team. I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player. In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.
I agree with all of this. I think a very relevant example to consider when considering Henrys trajectory post MU is the Jimmer Fredette case. He just called back up the NBA. He has all the same questions surrounding him that Henry does. He played a different postion but his strengths were quite good and he was highly acclaimed and a lottery pick.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14807650/new-york-knicks-sign-guard-jimmer-fredette
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I agree with all of this. I think a very relevant example to consider when considering Henrys trajectory post MU is the Jimmer Fredette case. He just called back up the NBA. He has all the same questions surrounding him that Henry does. He played a different postion but his strengths were quite good and he was highly acclaimed and a lottery pick.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14807650/new-york-knicks-sign-guard-jimmer-fredette
No.
If you don't understand the difference between where a player is at coming out as a freshman vs. where a player is at coming out as a senior and the trajectory of each's development post-college (on the whole), then you truly don't understand the college-to-NBA paradigm at all.
You're comparing concerns about Henry as a frosh vs. concerns about Jimmer as a senior. It's not a good comparison in the least.
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I agree with all of this. I think a very relevant example to consider when considering Henrys trajectory post MU is the Jimmer Fredette case. He just called back up the NBA. He has all the same questions surrounding him that Henry does. He played a different postion but his strengths were quite good and he was highly acclaimed and a lottery pick.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14807650/new-york-knicks-sign-guard-jimmer-fredette
It is a terrible comparison. Different ages. Different position.
If you are looking for a relevant example for Henry that might make people wary, read this scouting report from back in 2007 on Spencer Hawes.
"Height/Weight: 6-11, 250
Age: 19
Strengths/weaknesses: He really does a good job shooting the ball. He's very knowledgeable about the game and knows how to play as part a team, which will make it easy for him to fit in. Obviously, he has good size; it's a matter of whether his speed and quickness allow him to succeed at the next level. His speed and quickness are going to be a big question. We wouldn't take him, but for certain teams it doesn't matter. It just depends on the team.
Best case/worst case: I see his best-case scenario is being a solid starter in the league. I really don't see him as an All-Star-caliber player, but I would say that he could be a starting center on a good team, a very good team depending on what's around him. The thing that just might hold him back is that it's going to take some time for him to develop. It's not only the speed and quickness that will be different, but physically he's not as developed as he needs to be. If he can do those things and get stronger, he'll be fine. He could wind up as a backup center, but I think he'll have a career in the league."
Now Hawes has had a nice career but hardly stellar. He's in his ninth year in the league and has made $33 million. Big guys like Hawes, and like Ellenson, can stick in the league for a long time because of their size and their skills.
Mediocre shooting guards like Jimmer are a dime a dozen.
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It is a terrible comparison. Different ages. Different position.
If you are looking for a relevant example for Henry that might make people wary, read this scouting report from back in 2007 on Spencer Hawes.
"Height/Weight: 6-11, 250
Age: 19
Strengths/weaknesses: He really does a good job shooting the ball. He's very knowledgeable about the game and knows how to play as part a team, which will make it easy for him to fit in. Obviously, he has good size; it's a matter of whether his speed and quickness allow him to succeed at the next level. His speed and quickness are going to be a big question. We wouldn't take him, but for certain teams it doesn't matter. It just depends on the team.
Best case/worst case: I see his best-case scenario is being a solid starter in the league. I really don't see him as an All-Star-caliber player, but I would say that he could be a starting center on a good team, a very good team depending on what's around him. The thing that just might hold him back is that it's going to take some time for him to develop. It's not only the speed and quickness that will be different, but physically he's not as developed as he needs to be. If he can do those things and get stronger, he'll be fine. He could wind up as a backup center, but I think he'll have a career in the league."
Now Hawes has had a nice career but hardly stellar. He's in his ninth year in the league and has made $33 million. Big guys like Hawes, and like Ellenson, can stick in the league for a long time because of their size and their skills.
Mediocre shooting guards like Jimmer are a dime a dozen.
Yes the example you gave is good.
I think people are misinterpreting my point. All I really saying is being a lottery pick does not necessarily imply a guarantee or stamp of approval. If a player has holes in their game the holes will be exposed. It is easy to see that about Jimmer today. At the time he was a number 10 pick .
In golf there are lots of guys who pile up wins in the lesser tournaments but when they get to the Majors the holes in their games are exposed.
At the end of the day Henry is a well coordinated 6-11 kid and that will carry him a long way . It remains to be seen what his ceiling will be . For the sake of Marquette I want to see him do as well as possible.
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Also, Jimmer is a career 41% shooter (That would put him in the bottom third of all NBAers right now)
What relevance does a 41% career FG% have? What does comparing FG% of all NBA players do for you?
More than 40% of Jimmer's FGA's are 3 pointers. You want to compare his FG% to centers who rarely if ever attempt a three and mostly score within 5 feet from the bucket? Crazy.
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As for Henry, I'd like him to take a serious look at insurance contracts out there. If he can get a one that he's comfortable with, come on back for one more year of fun at MU.
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Yes the example you gave is good.
I think people are misinterpreting my point. All I really saying is being a lottery pick does not necessarily imply a guarantee or stamp of approval. If a player has holes in their game the holes will be exposed. It is easy to see that about Jimmer today. At the time he was a number 10 pick .
In golf there are lots of guys who pile up wins in the lesser tournaments but when they get to the Majors the holes in their games are exposed.
At the end of the day Henry is a well coordinated 6-11 kid and that will carry him a long way . It remains to be seen what his ceiling will be . For the sake of Marquette I want to see him do as well as possible.
What is your point? You keep mentioning Ellenson as a Junior/Senior. So you are implying either: 1. He isn't good enough to get drafted in the lottery right now or 2. You think he will develop much better in colllege?
1. He's a lottery pick. 2. He will be "exposed" in the NBA and will force him to grow unlike being in college.
Is there some kind of shame of being drafted 10th and making $15M+ throughout his career being a lifelong bench guy? Or out of pride he should stick around MU and dominate for 4 years?
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What relevance does a 41% career FG% have? What does comparing FG% of all NBA players do for you?
More than 40% of Jimmer's FGA's are 3 pointers. You want to compare his FG% to centers who rarely if ever attempt a three and mostly score within 5 feet from the bucket? Crazy.
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As for Henry, I'd like him to take a serious look at insurance contracts out there. If he can get a one that he's comfortable with, come on back for one more year of fun at MU.
I agree I probably should have sorted by position or made it TS% (For the record he has a below average eFG%-and that is supposed to be his elite skill) but for relevancy reread what I was quoting. He was saying Jimmer was only held back because he is a bad defender. I'm saying Jimmer was held back because he was an undersized SG, who wasn't efficient and below average PG skills PLUS a horrible defender----and came out as a senior. And he wanted to compare that guy to a freshman PF with legit NBA size?
He definitely needs an insurance policy if he comes back, but he still misses a year of salary ($2.5m) and a year of professional development.
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There is zero reason to compare Jimmer and Henry. Zero. Apples and kumquats ... and Hank is the apple!
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Jack Goods
@GoodsOnSports
Henry Ellenson is No. 3 on Chad Ford's big board. Not bad. #mubb
#1 Ben Simmons LSU
#2 Brandon Ingram Duke
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Jack Goods
@GoodsOnSports
Henry Ellenson is No. 3 on Chad Ford's big board. Not bad. #mubb
#1 Ben Simmons LSU
#2 Brandon Ingram Duke
#3 on the NBA D League Draft big board, right? I mean, he was only going to get 6 and 3 as a freshman, be around at least 2 years and more likely 4, and play in the D League as a pro, no? That's what I learned at Scoop, at least.
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Oh, by the way, he gowne.
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FYI, In September of 2014, DraftExpress had him #9 in the 2016 Draft. No one should be able to say that this snuck up on them. Ever since Henry signed with us, he has been a projected One & Done Lottery Pick.
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Jack Goods
@GoodsOnSports
Henry Ellenson is No. 3 on Chad Ford's big board. Not bad. #mubb
#1 Ben Simmons LSU
#2 Brandon Ingram Duke
(https://media4.giphy.com/media/oCnqvqgc1H1Ac/giphy.gif)
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4th as of now... Simmons, Ingram, and Dragan Bender (Croatia)
http://espn.go.com/nba/draft (http://espn.go.com/nba/draft)
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Jack Goods
@GoodsOnSports
Henry Ellenson is No. 3 on Chad Ford's big board. Not bad. #mubb
#1 Ben Simmons LSU
#2 Brandon Ingram Duke
Don't worry, when Chris Ford is wrong he'll rearrange it like he has in the past.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/1/25/7886991/chad-ford-nba-draft-espn-rankings-change
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Draft Express has him slipping one spot to #8 and 5th best freshman
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Draft Express has him slipping one spot to #8 and 5th best freshman
That's a fair spot. If I was a top 5 team, I'd be disappointed with landing Henry.
6-10 and I'd be wait & see.
11+ and I would be very excited.
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Don't worry, when Chris Ford is wrong he'll rearrange it like he has in the past.
So when Henry goes #1 he'll move Simmons, et al down....
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It is a terrible comparison. Different ages. Different position.
If you are looking for a relevant example for Henry that might make people wary, read this scouting report from back in 2007 on Spencer Hawes.
"Height/Weight: 6-11, 250
Age: 19
Strengths/weaknesses: He really does a good job shooting the ball. He's very knowledgeable about the game and knows how to play as part a team, which will make it easy for him to fit in. Obviously, he has good size; it's a matter of whether his speed and quickness allow him to succeed at the next level. His speed and quickness are going to be a big question. We wouldn't take him, but for certain teams it doesn't matter. It just depends on the team.
Best case/worst case: I see his best-case scenario is being a solid starter in the league. I really don't see him as an All-Star-caliber player, but I would say that he could be a starting center on a good team, a very good team depending on what's around him. The thing that just might hold him back is that it's going to take some time for him to develop. It's not only the speed and quickness that will be different, but physically he's not as developed as he needs to be. If he can do those things and get stronger, he'll be fine. He could wind up as a backup center, but I think he'll have a career in the league."
Now Hawes has had a nice career but hardly stellar. He's in his ninth year in the league and has made $33 million. Big guys like Hawes, and like Ellenson, can stick in the league for a long time because of their size and their skills.
Mediocre shooting guards like Jimmer are a dime a dozen.
Spencer Hawes is 7'1", 250. Henry is 6'10, 228. Spencer also had a 29" standing vertical, which I'd be shocked if Henry can beat.
Hawes was actually more NBA ready than Henry.
Also, I want to be clear; Henry is definitely a lottery pick, and in my opinion is gone after this year. I just also think he has a long way to go before being actually ready for the NBA. I figure he will spend at least 1 year in the D-league and likely 2 more riding the pine, before seeing meaningful action.
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Draft Express has him slipping one spot to #8 and 5th best freshman
This is worth reading. Gives the plusses and minuses.
http://upsidemotor.com/2016/01/14/henry-ellenson-2016-nba-draft-scouting-report-marquette/
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One intangible not mentioned is that HE has basketball moxie. He gets 11 boards a game and makes it look easy. He gets where the rebound is going.
On scoring side, he gets 16-20 points a game and they run no plays for him. If I were coach I would run all plays thru him and they run few, if any.
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One intangible not mentioned is that HE has basketball moxie. He gets 11 boards a game and makes it look easy. He gets where the rebound is going.
On scoring side, he gets 16-20 points a game and they run no plays for him. If I were coach I would run all plays thru him and they run few, if any.
I have read that rebounding, more so that scoring, is an accurate predictor of success at the next level.
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Lens
The kid flat out rebounds every game and makes it look easy. David Boone is my favorite rebounder in MU history and he had to work for every board. HE makes it look easy every game.
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One intangible not mentioned is that HE has basketball moxie. He gets 11 boards a game and makes it look easy. He gets where the rebound is going.
On scoring side, he gets 16-20 points a game and they run no plays for him. If I were coach I would run all plays thru him and they run few, if any.
The latter point is just not true. He has a usage rate of 25.4%. They run nearly everything through him.
As for his rebounds, part of his rebounding (its 10, not 11) is due to more available rebounds in MU games. He is 1st in the conference in total rebounds, but only 5th in terms of rebounding percentage. Those statistics are also helped by the fact that MU has been leaving guards away from crashing the board, in order to possibly get some breaks. It is also helped by him playing nearly 34 minutes per game.
HE is a good rebounder, but nowhere near great.
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One intangible not mentioned is that HE has basketball moxie. He gets 11 boards a game and makes it look easy. He gets where the rebound is going.
On scoring side, he gets 16-20 points a game and they run no plays for him. If I were coach I would run all plays thru him and they run few, if any.
He only gets the easy rebounds. He loses almost every contested rebound.
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Spencer Hawes is 7'1", 250. Henry is 6'10, 228. Spencer also had a 29" standing vertical, which I'd be shocked if Henry can beat.
Hawes was actually more NBA ready than Henry.
Also, I want to be clear; Henry is definitely a lottery pick, and in my opinion is gone after this year. I just also think he has a long way to go before being actually ready for the NBA. I figure he will spend at least 1 year in the D-league and likely 2 more riding the pine, before seeing meaningful action.
If a team is willing to spend a lottery pick on Henry, I doubt that they toss him in the D-League for his first year. If that is the plan he might as well come back for another year in college, much better exposure and a chance to make a run in the tourney which could really boost his stock.
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He only gets the easy rebounds. He loses almost every contested rebound.
God I love that you are sticking with the "his rebounds aren't hard enough" ridiculousness.
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If a team is willing to spend a lottery pick on Henry, I doubt that they toss him in the D-League for his first year. If that is the plan he might as well come back for another year in college, much better exposure and a chance to make a run in the tourney which could really boost his stock.
1) He won't be in the D League (so you have it right).
2) When you're a top 6 pick and the next year's draft is much stronger there's really only 1 way to go in the draft, and it isn't up.
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He only gets the easy rebounds. He loses almost every contested rebound.
What's funny is I find it incredible how often Hank ends up with the ball when there's a big scrum of players going after it. He almost always comes out with it. I'm starting to wonder if you even watch MU.
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Henry's rebounds aren't hard enough is even better than the "derrick only gets basic assists" argument
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The hope is Henry wants to have another fun year of college. An insurance policy can make him rich if injured. I like it.
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4th as of now... Simmons, Ingram, and Dragan Bender (Croatia)
http://espn.go.com/nba/draft (http://espn.go.com/nba/draft)
The Croat has a great name, considering his homeland created Slivovits brandy!
Should his nickname be "3-day"?
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The hope is Henry wants to have another fun year of college. An insurance policy can make him rich if injured. I like it.
Fun? Marquette Basketball just tweeted a pic of study hall on the road in Omaha. What is fun about that?
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This is worth reading. Gives the plusses and minuses.
http://upsidemotor.com/2016/01/14/henry-ellenson-2016-nba-draft-scouting-report-marquette/
I thought the summary was written by me....it was most excellent. 8-)
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God I love that you are sticking with the "his rebounds aren't hard enough" ridiculousness.
It's the he's tall logic. Mike Kinsella should have averaged 19 rebounds then. He didn't.
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I have read that rebounding, more so that scoring, is an accurate predictor of success at the next level.
See: Davis, Anthony.
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Forgetful
The fact that Henry touches the ball in half court offense does constitute a play being run. The half court offense is a joke IMO.
As for the rebounds, talk to people that have played the game at high level, get their take and get back to me.
I try not to take the bait on this topic and just cannot control myself. For a guy that was HS AA, been projected as lottery pick(still does), average a double double, six time BE rookie of the week and 7 STOG(picked by u guys), it seems like 50% of the posts on him are negative. Folks, bashing him is not going to motivate him to come back another year. Truthfully, out of all the stupid debates I have been part of on scoop this one has me scratching my head.
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Truthfully, out of all the stupid debates I have been part of on scoop this one has me scratching my head.
All the negativity I have read can be summed up by this statement "it's really hard to be good in the NBA and very few people do it". No joke - great analysis.
HE going one and done is good for HE, Wojo and MU. Now it looks like he put himself in a position to choose his destiny and that is fantastic. Go HE.
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Fun? Marquette Basketball just tweeted a pic of study hall on the road in Omaha. What is fun about that?
And I guess you are assuming that Henry dislikes the academic side of school. I certainly haven't heard that. He is certainly no Vander in that regard.
So you are saying being an NBA player is nothing but fun 24/7?
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Forgetful
The fact that Henry touches the ball in half court offense does constitute a play being run. The half court offense is a joke IMO.
As for the rebounds, talk to people that have played the game at high level, get their take and get back to me.
I try not to take the bait on this topic and just cannot control myself. For a guy that was HS AA, been projected as lottery pick(still does), average a double double, six time BE rookie of the week and 7 STOG(picked by u guys), it seems like 50% of the posts on him are negative. Folks, bashing him is not going to motivate him to come back another year. Truthfully, out of all the stupid debates I have been part of on scoop this one has me scratching my head.
Done. They agree with me about his rebounding. Only one was a player at a high level though, the other was a hall of fame college coach.
As for the negativity. It is called constructive criticism. Nobody is saying he isn't an NBA player. They are pointing out areas he needs to improve on to be more than a bit player in the NBA. Frankly, if HE can't handle that, he'll never improve.
And in reference to him being bothered by constant constructive criticism and then not coming back. He isn't coming back no matter if we shower him with praise or tear him to shreds. He is going to the NBA next year.
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The one thing that Henry has at MU right now is the open to shot whenever he wants, great deal for him. In the pros, if he shots from 3 and is 1 for 4 all time he
will be sitting on the bench more often then not. PLus against people his own size like tonight he is not nearly effective as he really can not jump. If he played against
Giannis or Jabari, they would go around him like nothing. Even in the minute or so action for Novak, he can not guard anyone, that is why he has been on 9 different
teams can not defend, then again he has probably made $25M in those 9 years so that is not to bad.
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I think Henry cares more about playing in the NBA than he does about being able to miss shots without getting benched.
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And I guess you are assuming that Henry dislikes the academic side of school. I certainly haven't heard that. He is certainly no Vander in that regard.
So you are saying being an NBA player is nothing but fun 24/7?
No, being a NBA player is work, hard work. But that work is centered around getting better on the court. As a college student he will spend 2 hours a day working on something that has no short or medium term upside for him. It would be like having a part time job. Even if one likes academics, it is not an easy process and it is a time consuming one.
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He only gets the easy rebounds. He loses almost every contested rebound.
Only a very small % of rebounds are made above the rim and /or what you would consider "contested". Most are made by recognizing where the ball will go and beating people to that spot. HE is very good at that. Luke's as big as Henry but doesn't get nearly as many boards. That's not because Henry's lucky and the ball just bounces his way.
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No, being a NBA player is work, hard work. But that work is centered around getting better on the court. As a college student he will spend 2 hours a day working on something that has no short or medium term upside for him. It would be like having a part time job. Even if one likes academics, it is not an easy process and it is a time consuming one.
2 hours a day? It's more than that.
Probably has 3-4 hours of class on average, plus team study hall and tutoring. Then any additional homework.
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He only gets the easy rebounds. He loses almost every contested rebound.
This does not make sense to me. If you box out properly or get superior position in relation to where the ball is headed the rebound will not look contested.
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2 hours a day? It's more than that.
Probably has 3-4 hours of class on average, plus team study hall and tutoring. Then any additional homework.
This.
Hell, even I spent 2 hours a day as a student at MU, and I was a notorious F-up!
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2 hours a day? It's more than that.
Probably has 3-4 hours of class on average, plus team study hall and tutoring. Then any additional homework.
Whoops, I forgot about actually going to class.
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Luke's as big as Henry but doesn't get nearly as many boards. That's not because Henry's lucky and the ball just bounces his way.
Oh yeah? Not many people know that Henry wears lucky Mighty Mouse Underoos and that he puts the Buffalo nickel his great uncle gave him under the tongue of his right sneaker for additional luck!
But seriously, folks ... this is an excellent point, Lenny.
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This is worth reading. Gives the plusses and minuses.
http://upsidemotor.com/2016/01/14/henry-ellenson-2016-nba-draft-scouting-report-marquette/
Great article. One thing I loved is how it talked about how Henry's work to position himself for rebounds cost him on the defensive end and stunted his shot-blocking ability. Also, since about this time, the work he's put in on his defense and shot-blocking has been apparent.
Henry had 24 blocks in our first 18 games, an average of 1.3 bpg. Since then, he has 20 in the past 9 games, an average of 2.2 per game. He's been more aggressive in defending opponents and using his size to alter shots. In addition, it really hasn't hurt his rebounding, he's still pulling down 10.5 per game over that span.
He's also been committing more fouls in that span (2.8 in past 9 games, 2.3 in first 18). Again, being more physical on defense, and doing so without fouling out. All of this tells me he's responding to the coaching staff. Good sign for both Henry and for the staff.
His game has deficits. His three-point shooting especially. A guy with his size and consistent form should have little problem with shots being contested should be able to hit around 35%. But again...a positive in that over that 9-game stretch, he's hitting 34.6% (9/26) beyond the arc. Maybe a sign he's picking shots better or gaining confidence?
As far as the easy rebounds, I would agree that Henry makes rebounds look easy. There are two reasons for this. First, he does get great positioning which allows him to pull down many balls uncontested. Second, he doesn't have the kind of upper body strength many of the more experienced players have so when a board is contested, he's not as likely to pull it down. The former is a great skill and it's impressive that a freshman has such a feel for that, the latter is a problem but can be easily rectified with coaching and time in the weight room.
The biggest issue with Henry is his efficiency. That should improve with better shot selection and having more talented players around him. Whether it happens here or not remains to be seen.
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we'll need another poll on this after the BET.
I think about how Giannis developed in the NBA vs how he would have, had he been on an average college team for two years.
Henry has the ability and assets....go to the NBA and be-all-you-can-be....for $1M
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It pains me to think what this team would be if Henry was only one year younger.
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Anybody have a way of doctoring Hank's birth certificate to make him a year younger and require him to remain in college an extra year?
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Anybody have a way of doctoring Hank's birth certificate to make him a year younger and require him to remain in college an extra year?
I saw him on campus earlier tonight. He looked like he was really enjoying college life.....
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I saw him on campus earlier tonight. He looked like he was really enjoying college life.....
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/N1Ap4xvxceJAA/giphy.gif)
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Doug Gottlieb @GottliebShow 3h3 hours ago
Doug Gottlieb Retweeted Juug Flutie
Ellenson Doug Gottlieb added,
Juug Flutie @Mr_546
@GottliebShow Poehtl or Ellenson......better pro?