Oso planning to go pro
Want a tremendous thread of doom? Read this thread:https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
Honestly, after reading that thread .. and once you take the leap that C19 is not going to be controlled .. it's just a matter of time. The author presupposes a doubling-rate of 6 days .. fine, maybe we can make that 12 days, so instead of billions infected by July, it's ~October. Yay?Seems like only a matter of time, like 4-6 weeks where all schooling is closed. All cruise ships, closed. Air travel will be 75% closed. Hotels, closed. Restaurants, closed. Churches, closed. On and on.That seems like .. the beginning of a global great depression?
Flu truther?Go to the top of this page and you will seeTotal recovered = 58,359Total Death = 3,558No divide them to get the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR)3,558 / 58,359 = 6.1%Of all the resolved cases, 6.1% die2018/2019 flu seasonhttps://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.htmlTotal = 35,520,883Recovered = 35,486,726Dead = 34,15734,157 / 35,486,786 = .096% (2018/2018 CFR)Coronavirus is 63.5x (6.1%/0.096%) deadlier than the seasonal flu.
Please read the first sentence of the storyThe University of Washington said on Friday that it would cancel in-person classes and have students take courses and finals remotely while the Seattle area grapples with a growing coronavirus outbreak, in a move that other colleges around the country are preparing to follow if the virus becomes more widespread.and since you missed that, you probably also missed this in the middleThe University of Washington, with 50,000 students on three campuses across the Seattle region, was apparently the first large college in the United States to make the shift entirely to online classes amid virus concerns. It said the change would begin Monday and continue through the remainder of the winter quarter, which ends March 20. The university’s president, Ana Mari Cauce, said she was hopeful that normal classes would resume during the spring quarter.Oh wait, I said semester and it says quarter. Stand corrected on that minor point. But ... they are not going back in late March. This is not ending in two weeks.
The media has made this out to be a frightening ordeal for everyone, the ABC news special report on Friday night was reminiscent of the somber reports of terror attacks. If you're in one of the demographic groups that are susceptible to pneumonia or garden variety influenza complications, then by all means make preparations and precautions. But cancelling months of classes, bringing businesses fully to a halt, encouraging people to postpone or cancel vacation/travel plans 1/2/3 months in the future? Thats where I'm getting a bit sick of the media bias and narrative.
I am not personally scared of having the virus. I bet I will persevere. More so I am cautious about contracting and infecting others. If there’s anything I can do to stop that while not going full China lockdown it’s a win.
China checked it and it will be a 1-2 quarter recession for them. So I guess it depends on when the rest of the world can get to peak infection. My guess is it will take ROW longer due to either worse health systems (emerging markets) or freedom (developed).
You’re buying what China is saying?
I liked this document ..https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cI_D3ULz6-qoBRMND8dIVz-naW92MqATphBg5bQEIjg/preview?fbclid=IwAR3dK2AUxsebUvy-VFkTqRKrbADDFmv7fcYX4U9wpkr_Vt0XHTjNq8y8VeQ&pru=AAABcN5-6sQ*1EWxzP8ANMZuVQ_HmmvMEw#
Are you saying it’s way worse from them (meaning more than 1-2 quarters) or they are sandbagging cause they were in economic turmoil before this?
Actually, Wags, I was referring to statements that things are getting better in Chine (re:coronavirus). When did we suddenly get to the point that their gov't - which has lied from the beginning and covered up the extent of the virus - has suddenly become a source of facts.According to The Week - a centrist news site - they are still simply lying and covering up. In other words, SOP.https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claimI think we all agree that we don't know what is going on in China. I think we can also agree we will not get transparency from the Chinese Gov't.
Ok, multiple sources have them closing the Coronavirus hospitals and quarantine centers. And I can tell you, as well as many others, first hand from clients and customers that many factories are back open and back to work. Not speaking to long term business outlooks, but claiming its a massive coverup and the virus is still rampaging unchecked is some alarmist nonsense IMO.Maybe they are window dressing Wuhan a bit, but the country is not longer at a standstill and case numbers continue to drop. Thats meaningful.
WagsOur team is back to work and have full access to 90% of the factories we work with, which is over 50 and all over China. Many of the factories not up and running are factories with money issues. There has been a glut of overcapacity for a long time and the weak factories are suffering. I cannot comment on China reporting new cases or deaths accurately, but confirm much of China is open for business.I have two grandkids arriving in early April otherwise I would be finding a way to get back to China and Vietnam.
MU FanKeep me posted.