Kolek planning to go pro
who is overestimating the Russian army at this point?
Reports of a potential cease fire with an agreement that Ukraine would basically give up Crimea and its far eastern territory and be officially neutral and not join NATO must be a dissatisfying pill to swallow but worth preventing the additional loss of life and destruction. I have not see anything that would prevent them from joining the EU though I could be wrong.IMO the West, including the United States, now needs a mini-Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Pouring money into their rehabilitation, and turning them even more to the West and eventually getting them into the EU, is definitely worth the cost.
If that "deal" is actually made I would expect China to invade Taiwan within a year. And if you think what's happening now is a s-show? Multiply that by 1000 if Tawain is usurped by the CCP. The policy and goals should be for Ukraine to win at all costs. Period. That means remaining a sovereign country, crippling Russia and Putin from ever threatening them or European NATO countries again, removing Putin's cash cow of oil and gas, and controlling some world order.
China invading Taiwan is infinitely more difficult than Russia invading Ukraine. It's not happening.And its easy for people in countries thousands of miles away to say "win at all costs," which I assume you mean capturing all of what was Ukraine a decade ago, but destroying even more property and killing thousands of more people are pretty hefty costs to hold onto areas that are populated with people who would likely rather be with Russia anyway.
I think "a deal" like that would ultimately be a total failure. And I'm sure Ukraine becoming more like "The West" would thrill Putin. At this point I have no idea what the goals are of the United States regarding this War and future ramifications of this situation. What I do know is it's not conceivable that Biden's comment was a gaffe. Especially since we are now aware that his responses to the "questioning" of his recent comments was from a prepared talking points paper. He also knew all the questions in advance. This is a problem regardless of your political leanings.Where I disagree with most people, and it's all sides of the political spectrum, is that "avoiding nuclear war " is the United States policy. That's not a policy and you can list all sorts of things that we and Western European countries have done that Putin could construe as a reason for unleashing his nuclear arsenal. If that "deal" is actually made I would expect China to invade Taiwan within a year. And if you think what's happening now is a s-show? Multiply that by 1000 if Tawain is usurped by the CCP. The policy and goals should be for Ukraine to win at all costs. Period. That means remaining a sovereign country, crippling Russia and Putin from ever threatening them or European NATO countries again, removing Putin's cash cow of oil and gas, and controlling some world order. If Biden "feels" that the pos should be taken out that's his prerogative as President of the United States. His comment that he "feels" a certain way "morally" but that's not US policy makes literally no sense. Now, I'm not saying regime change is necessarily the best answer but the way one "feels" as the leader of the free world generally leads to decisions /policies made by the United States.
FWIW, Boris Johnson said today that sanctions will NOT be lifted on Russia even if some sort of a ceasefire is agreed.
fluffWhat do you base your comments on China invading Taiwan as being more difficult and not happening?
I worry about Taiwan all the time. They are a proud people, and a strong ally to the United States. I don't know if what's happening in Ukraine would affect China's willingness to attack Taiwan one way or the other. One big problem for Taiwan is who would come to its rescue if China unleashed its military might? Unlike Ukraine, which borders EU countries who are sympathetic to its cause (and who have a keen sense of self-preservation), Taiwan is an island that is isolated from the rest of the world.Would the U.S. or other countries be willing to wage world war if China tries to take Taiwan? I sure feel for Taiwan and its people.
82There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.
Of course, my statement of "it's not happening" is just a guess. I am not an expert in foreign affairs by any means, but China knows it would be *extremely* difficult and costly to invade not to mention occupy. These are the reasons that the US only briefly looked at invading "Formosa" before looking elsewhere.https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-dayEspecially after watching the world's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, how difficult a time Russia is having on a MUCH easier geographic battlefield, and how humiliated Russia is feeling, IMO they have to come to the conclusion that invading Taiwan would be an enormous mistake.
I have absolutely no idea why you think the bolded.
I wouldn't think the Russian/Ukraine military operations are analogous at all to a potential China invasion of Taiwan.
Fluffy, Taiwan defending itself is still dependent on USA military support and direct confrontation with the CCP.