Seed

[1SE]

Bracketmatrix currently has us as the last 5. Cracketology has us as the first 7. Our ceiling? Gotta be a 3. Would 4 straight 4 straight Ls put us to a 10 or worse (that's Arby's BTW)?

Difference in probability of making 2nd round or 16 between 4 and 5 substantial  - difference in probability of making S16 between 5 and 7 substantial. Lots left to play for.

[wisblue]

IMHO the historic probability of a particular seed advancing is a lot less significant than how the team is trending heading into the tournamnent.

At this point MU has not beaten a team that will be in the tournament since beating Creighton in early January, and they have lost 5 games to 3 NCAA teams and 2 that are only on the bubble because of their wins over MU.

If that trend continues with losses to UConn and SJU and another in their first BET game, it will be hard to expect the team to suddenly play like it's early December, whether it's as a 6 seed or the more likely 7 or 8.

I'm focusing on the short term. First, get a win over GU to eliminate the possibility of having to play on Wednesday at MSG.

Then pick up a win or 2 against UConn and SJU to go into the BET and NCAA with some confidence and momentum.

I voted 7 seed based on a win at GU, losses to UConn and SJU, and the BET having no significant impact one way or the other.

[Shooter McGavin]

Agree Wisblue.  These last three regular season games will give us a really good idea if the team is back to playing November/December ball.  Will be fun and a little nerve wracking to watch. 

Regardless, senior day should be a nostalgic. Those seniors have averaged 25 wins a year.  Pretty impressive. 

[Its DJOver]

Still largely depends on other teams results as well as our own.  We moved from the first 6 to the last 5 on bracketmatrix more so due to Miss St blow out loss than our blow out win.

[1SE]

We remain the last 5 in BM - although about half the brackets aren't yet updated for weekend results.

Our road to a 4 seems to depend on passing 4 of:

Mizzou: Lost @Vandy over the weekend - not a bad loss by any stretch but if they also lose vs. UK then 1 win might be enough to get us by them.
Maryland: @Michigan Wednesday - if they win we need both.
Clemson: @BC and vs VT all that's left. Despite their lack of quality wins, I think we'd need to win both to pass a 26-5 ACC team with a win over Duke.
Purdue: @Illinois on the 8th - if we win both we probably pass even if they win that.
Arizona: Lost @ISU over the weekend - shouldn't hurt much but would have been a nice win. If they win @KU on we probably need both

In summary, of the 6 teams, we're the only one with 2 "statement" games left. That said, being the furthest out, I'd say we really need both to get to the 4 - we might even control our own destiny with that (but probably also at least one BET win). Winning one probably locks us into the 5 - but it's hard to see enough stumbles for the other 5 teams for 1-1 to get us on the 4 line.

Historically, the difference between a 4 and 5 is huge - probability of winning first game is 79% vs 65% (the largest drop-off between any two seed lines (of course mathematically equivalent to the diff between 12 and 13) - and the probability of going to the S16 is 47% vs 34% - the second largest drop-off after the 1-2 difference. By contrast - difference between 5 and 6 is negligible - 65% vs 62% first round and 34% vs 29% S16.

Lots to play for - let's start it off by serving up some revenge to Dan and the puppies.

[Uncle Rico]

Who cares?  They suck.  I said it at the time and will say it again, they should have hired Rick Pitino and we'd have been in the Final 4 by now.  The window is shut and this program is inhaling carbon monoxide on its way to toilet town.

[Newsdreams]

Who cares?  They suck.  I said it at the time and will say it again, they should have hired Rick Pitino and we'd have been in the Final 4 by now.  The window is shut and this program is inhaling carbon monoxide on its way to toilet town.

So like me you think MU is heading to Dayton

[GoldenEagles03]

My guess is

-Win the last 2 get a 4 seed
-Split the last 2 get a 6 seed
-Lose the last 2 get a 7 seed

UConn game is massive for the Big East Tourney. We lose to UConn and we are the 4 seed most likely playing Xavier. Win and we are the 3 with a chance at the 2 if we beat St. Johns.

So much left to play for!

[FairWeatherEagle]

Three things
1. Missed this poll as I was off scoop. If you have a poll it's a good idea to put a dummy comment in it to raise it to the top of the list of posts so it's visible. Otherwise it gets buried. Simple poll responses don't do that. Having said that I like polls!

2. I just averaged it out to a 5 but hoping on a 4 with a good finish. I think a 3 or 6 gives us the best chance at the E8, though that's a long shot in any case.

3. No way we get a 7. Even with @UC and STJ losses and a BET bye exit. I don't think 3 losses in a row happens but no 7 in any case.

[Uncle Rico]

So like me you think MU is heading to Dayton

I'm cheering for it.  The farther we drop, the sweeter I told you so

[tower912]

Bully.  Let fans be fans however they see fit.

[Uncle Rico]

Bully.  Let fans be fans however they see fit.

That's why I told you so is so sweet.

[Newsdreams]

Bully.  Let fans be fans however they see fit.

Bully is the new norm, the accepted christian way in America.

[MuggsyB]

IMHO the historic probability of a particular seed advancing is a lot less significant than how the team is trending heading into the tournamnent.

At this point MU has not beaten a team that will be in the tournament since beating Creighton in early January, and they have lost 5 games to 3 NCAA teams and 2 that are only on the bubble because of their wins over MU.

If that trend continues with losses to UConn and SJU and another in their first BET game, it will be hard to expect the team to suddenly play like it's early December, whether it's as a 6 seed or the more likely 7 or 8.

I'm focusing on the short term. First, get a win over GU to eliminate the possibility of having to play on Wednesday at MSG.

Then pick up a win or 2 against UConn and SJU to go into the BET and NCAA with some confidence and momentum.

I voted 7 seed based on a win at GU, losses to UConn and SJU, and the BET having no significant impact one way or the other.

Exactly.  We all know how VCU was trending under Shaka's tutelage in 2011. 

[The Sultan]

Exactly.  We all know how VCU was trending under Shaka's tutelage in 2011. 

Are you being ironic here? VCU lost their last four conference games, lost the CAA championship, and barely got into the first four.

[Uncle Rico]

Bully is the new norm, the accepted christian way in America.

In a lot of ways, Jesus was the first bully

[Newsdreams]

In a lot of ways, Jesus was the first bully

No doubt, abusing those poor merchants in the temple, anti-capitalist, woke socialist.

[tower912]

No doubt, abusing those poor merchants in the temple, anti-capitalist, woke socialist.

Picking on the murmurers, the falsely pious, the haters.

[MuggsyB]

Are you being ironic here? VCU lost their last four conference games, lost the CAA championship, and barely got into the first four.

I'm pointing out that Blue is Whistling Dixie.  Anything can happen, it's essentially a crapshoot.  We're obviously not playing well, but there are a myriad of cases where a team gets bounced early that is on a hot streak and vice versa.  I'm sick of the vitriol towards our team.  You can only play your schedule and the BEast is down this season.  We've crapped the bed in a bunch of games for sure and have some major probs, but so do a number of other teams that are highly ranked.  For the 5th time, if Kam plays well and finds his J we can make a tourney run.  If he can't it will likely be an early exit. 

[The Sultan]

I'm pointing out that Blue is Whistling Dixie.  Anything can happen, it's essentially a crapshoot.  We're obviously not playing well, but there are a myriad of cases where a team gets bounced early that is on a hot streak and vice versa.  I'm sick of the vitriol towards our team.  You can only play your schedule and the BEast is down this season.  We've crapped the bed in a bunch of games for sure and have some major probs, but so do a number of other teams that are highly ranked.  For the 5th time, if Kam plays well and finds his J we can make a tourney run.  If he can't it will likely be an early exit. 

Hey, look at you being the calm voice of reason!

[dgies9156]

In 1977, we played like crap for most of the month of February.

We were the last team in and many thought the reason we even were invited was a tip of the NCAA cap to Coach McGuire, who was retiring. We were thought to be an "early exit" team.

We all know what happened back then.

In 1978 we were playing good basketball. We went into the tournament with our students wearing "Marquette Meet me in St. Louis" tshirts. We know what happened there, too.

It's the NCAA tournament... anything can happen!!!

[Uncle Rico]

In 1977, we played like crap for most of the month of February.

We were the last team in and many thought the reason we even were invited was a tip of the NCAA cap to Coach McGuire, who was retiring. We were thought to be an "early exit" team.

We all know what happened back then.

In 1978 we were playing good basketball. We went into the tournament with our students wearing "Marquette Meet me in St. Louis" tshirts. We know what happened there, too.

It's the NCAA tournament... anything can happen!!!

The best thing that can happen is we lose in Dayton again and this season ends.  The sooner it is over the better

[MU82]

We're obviously not playing well 

False.

I'm sick of the vitriol towards our team.

Then why are you saying we're not playing well?

[Newsdreams]

Picking on the murmurers, the falsely pious, the haters.

You mean like some we have here?

[Newsdreams]

In 1977, we played like crap for most of the month of February.

We were the last team in and many thought the reason we even were invited was a tip of the NCAA cap to Coach McGuire, who was retiring. We were thought to be an "early exit" team.

We all know what happened back then.

In 1978 we were playing good basketball. We went into the tournament with our students wearing "Marquette Meet me in St. Louis" tshirts. We know what happened there, too.

It's the NCAA tournament... anything can happen!!!

Now MU is jinxed!