Seed

[1SE]

Bracketmatrix currently has us as the last 5. Cracketology has us as the first 7. Our ceiling? Gotta be a 3. Would 4 straight 4 straight Ls put us to a 10 or worse (that's Arby's BTW)?

Difference in probability of making 2nd round or 16 between 4 and 5 substantial  - difference in probability of making S16 between 5 and 7 substantial. Lots left to play for.

[wisblue]

IMHO the historic probability of a particular seed advancing is a lot less significant than how the team is trending heading into the tournamnent.

At this point MU has not beaten a team that will be in the tournament since beating Creighton in early January, and they have lost 5 games to 3 NCAA teams and 2 that are only on the bubble because of their wins over MU.

If that trend continues with losses to UConn and SJU and another in their first BET game, it will be hard to expect the team to suddenly play like it's early December, whether it's as a 6 seed or the more likely 7 or 8.

I'm focusing on the short term. First, get a win over GU to eliminate the possibility of having to play on Wednesday at MSG.

Then pick up a win or 2 against UConn and SJU to go into the BET and NCAA with some confidence and momentum.

I voted 7 seed based on a win at GU, losses to UConn and SJU, and the BET having no significant impact one way or the other.

[Shooter McGavin]

Agree Wisblue.  These last three regular season games will give us a really good idea if the team is back to playing November/December ball.  Will be fun and a little nerve wracking to watch. 

Regardless, senior day should be a nostalgic. Those seniors have averaged 25 wins a year.  Pretty impressive. 

[Its DJOver]

Still largely depends on other teams results as well as our own.  We moved from the first 6 to the last 5 on bracketmatrix more so due to Miss St blow out loss than our blow out win.

[1SE]

We remain the last 5 in BM - although about half the brackets aren't yet updated for weekend results.

Our road to a 4 seems to depend on passing 4 of:

Mizzou: Lost @Vandy over the weekend - not a bad loss by any stretch but if they also lose vs. UK then 1 win might be enough to get us by them.
Maryland: @Michigan Wednesday - if they win we need both.
Clemson: @BC and vs VT all that's left. Despite their lack of quality wins, I think we'd need to win both to pass a 26-5 ACC team with a win over Duke.
Purdue: @Illinois on the 8th - if we win both we probably pass even if they win that.
Arizona: Lost @ISU over the weekend - shouldn't hurt much but would have been a nice win. If they win @KU on we probably need both

In summary, of the 6 teams, we're the only one with 2 "statement" games left. That said, being the furthest out, I'd say we really need both to get to the 4 - we might even control our own destiny with that (but probably also at least one BET win). Winning one probably locks us into the 5 - but it's hard to see enough stumbles for the other 5 teams for 1-1 to get us on the 4 line.

Historically, the difference between a 4 and 5 is huge - probability of winning first game is 79% vs 65% (the largest drop-off between any two seed lines (of course mathematically equivalent to the diff between 12 and 13) - and the probability of going to the S16 is 47% vs 34% - the second largest drop-off after the 1-2 difference. By contrast - difference between 5 and 6 is negligible - 65% vs 62% first round and 34% vs 29% S16.

Lots to play for - let's start it off by serving up some revenge to Dan and the puppies.

[Uncle Rico]

Who cares?  They suck.  I said it at the time and will say it again, they should have hired Rick Pitino and we'd have been in the Final 4 by now.  The window is shut and this program is inhaling carbon monoxide on its way to toilet town.

[Newsdreams]

Who cares?  They suck.  I said it at the time and will say it again, they should have hired Rick Pitino and we'd have been in the Final 4 by now.  The window is shut and this program is inhaling carbon monoxide on its way to toilet town.

So like me you think MU is heading to Dayton

[GoldenEagles03]

My guess is

-Win the last 2 get a 4 seed
-Split the last 2 get a 6 seed
-Lose the last 2 get a 7 seed

UConn game is massive for the Big East Tourney. We lose to UConn and we are the 4 seed most likely playing Xavier. Win and we are the 3 with a chance at the 2 if we beat St. Johns.

So much left to play for!

[FairWeatherEagle]

Three things
1. Missed this poll as I was off scoop. If you have a poll it's a good idea to put a dummy comment in it to raise it to the top of the list of posts so it's visible. Otherwise it gets buried. Simple poll responses don't do that. Having said that I like polls!

2. I just averaged it out to a 5 but hoping on a 4 with a good finish. I think a 3 or 6 gives us the best chance at the E8, though that's a long shot in any case.

3. No way we get a 7. Even with @UC and STJ losses and a BET bye exit. I don't think 3 losses in a row happens but no 7 in any case.

[Uncle Rico]

So like me you think MU is heading to Dayton

I'm cheering for it.  The farther we drop, the sweeter I told you so

[tower912]

Bully.  Let fans be fans however they see fit.

[Uncle Rico]

Bully.  Let fans be fans however they see fit.

That's why I told you so is so sweet.

[Newsdreams]

Bully.  Let fans be fans however they see fit.

Bully is the new norm, the accepted christian way in America.

[MuggsyB]

IMHO the historic probability of a particular seed advancing is a lot less significant than how the team is trending heading into the tournamnent.

At this point MU has not beaten a team that will be in the tournament since beating Creighton in early January, and they have lost 5 games to 3 NCAA teams and 2 that are only on the bubble because of their wins over MU.

If that trend continues with losses to UConn and SJU and another in their first BET game, it will be hard to expect the team to suddenly play like it's early December, whether it's as a 6 seed or the more likely 7 or 8.

I'm focusing on the short term. First, get a win over GU to eliminate the possibility of having to play on Wednesday at MSG.

Then pick up a win or 2 against UConn and SJU to go into the BET and NCAA with some confidence and momentum.

I voted 7 seed based on a win at GU, losses to UConn and SJU, and the BET having no significant impact one way or the other.

Exactly.  We all know how VCU was trending under Shaka's tutelage in 2011. 

[The Sultan]

Exactly.  We all know how VCU was trending under Shaka's tutelage in 2011. 

Are you being ironic here? VCU lost their last four conference games, lost the CAA championship, and barely got into the first four.

[Uncle Rico]

Bully is the new norm, the accepted christian way in America.

In a lot of ways, Jesus was the first bully

[Newsdreams]

In a lot of ways, Jesus was the first bully

No doubt, abusing those poor merchants in the temple, anti-capitalist, woke socialist.

[tower912]

No doubt, abusing those poor merchants in the temple, anti-capitalist, woke socialist.

Picking on the murmurers, the falsely pious, the haters.

[MuggsyB]

Are you being ironic here? VCU lost their last four conference games, lost the CAA championship, and barely got into the first four.

I'm pointing out that Blue is Whistling Dixie.  Anything can happen, it's essentially a crapshoot.  We're obviously not playing well, but there are a myriad of cases where a team gets bounced early that is on a hot streak and vice versa.  I'm sick of the vitriol towards our team.  You can only play your schedule and the BEast is down this season.  We've crapped the bed in a bunch of games for sure and have some major probs, but so do a number of other teams that are highly ranked.  For the 5th time, if Kam plays well and finds his J we can make a tourney run.  If he can't it will likely be an early exit. 

[The Sultan]

I'm pointing out that Blue is Whistling Dixie.  Anything can happen, it's essentially a crapshoot.  We're obviously not playing well, but there are a myriad of cases where a team gets bounced early that is on a hot streak and vice versa.  I'm sick of the vitriol towards our team.  You can only play your schedule and the BEast is down this season.  We've crapped the bed in a bunch of games for sure and have some major probs, but so do a number of other teams that are highly ranked.  For the 5th time, if Kam plays well and finds his J we can make a tourney run.  If he can't it will likely be an early exit. 

Hey, look at you being the calm voice of reason!

[dgies9156]

In 1977, we played like crap for most of the month of February.

We were the last team in and many thought the reason we even were invited was a tip of the NCAA cap to Coach McGuire, who was retiring. We were thought to be an "early exit" team.

We all know what happened back then.

In 1978 we were playing good basketball. We went into the tournament with our students wearing "Marquette Meet me in St. Louis" tshirts. We know what happened there, too.

It's the NCAA tournament... anything can happen!!!

[Uncle Rico]

In 1977, we played like crap for most of the month of February.

We were the last team in and many thought the reason we even were invited was a tip of the NCAA cap to Coach McGuire, who was retiring. We were thought to be an "early exit" team.

We all know what happened back then.

In 1978 we were playing good basketball. We went into the tournament with our students wearing "Marquette Meet me in St. Louis" tshirts. We know what happened there, too.

It's the NCAA tournament... anything can happen!!!

The best thing that can happen is we lose in Dayton again and this season ends.  The sooner it is over the better

[MU82]

We're obviously not playing well 

False.

I'm sick of the vitriol towards our team.

Then why are you saying we're not playing well?

[Newsdreams]

Picking on the murmurers, the falsely pious, the haters.

You mean like some we have here?

[Newsdreams]

In 1977, we played like crap for most of the month of February.

We were the last team in and many thought the reason we even were invited was a tip of the NCAA cap to Coach McGuire, who was retiring. We were thought to be an "early exit" team.

We all know what happened back then.

In 1978 we were playing good basketball. We went into the tournament with our students wearing "Marquette Meet me in St. Louis" tshirts. We know what happened there, too.

It's the NCAA tournament... anything can happen!!!

Now MU is jinxed!

[wisblue]

You can always find examples to illustrate a point of view but, on balance, I'd much rather have a team that finishes with some momentum than one that has limped over the last month.

MU teams in 2019 and 2022 finished poorly and had spectacular flameouts in their first NCAA games.

[The Sultan]

You can always find examples to illustrate a point of view but, on balance, I'd much rather have a team that finishes with some momentum than one that has limped over the last month.

MU teams in 2019 and 2022 finished poorly and had spectacular flameouts in their first NCAA games.

Eeyore gonna Eeyore.

[MU82]

So ... winning is better than losing. Got it!

[Uncle Rico]

You can always find examples to illustrate a point of view but, on balance, I'd much rather have a team that finishes with some momentum than one that has limped over the last month.

MU teams in 2019 and 2022 finished poorly and had spectacular flameouts in their first NCAA games.

Thanks.  This is what I've been saying.  It's a constant problem under Shaka

[MuggsyB]

You can always find examples to illustrate a point of view but, on balance, I'd much rather have a team that finishes with some momentum than one that has limped over the last month.

MU teams in 2019 and 2022 finished poorly and had spectacular flameouts in their first NCAA games.

Completely irrelevant. 

[MuggsyB]

In 1977, we played like crap for most of the month of February.

We were the last team in and many thought the reason we even were invited was a tip of the NCAA cap to Coach McGuire, who was retiring. We were thought to be an "early exit" team.

We all know what happened back then.

In 1978 we were playing good basketball. We went into the tournament with our students wearing "Marquette Meet me in St. Louis" tshirts. We know what happened there, too.

It's the NCAA tournament... anything can happen!!!

Ty brother dgies. 

[tower912]

One of those was Wojo. So, who GAF?  Yes, Shaka has gone to the tournament 3 times in 3 years and is 3-3 overall.

[Uncle Rico]

One of those was Wojo. So, who GAF?  Yes, Shaka has gone to the tournament 3 times in 3 years and is 3-3 overall.

Exactly.  He's terrible

[MuggsyB]

False.

Then why are you saying we're not playing well?
[/quote

I don't think we've played near our ceiling or how we did earlier in the year.

That's not being vitriolic.  Attacking our team and coming up with stuff out of one's ass is what I object to MU82. 

[Viper]

Let me clear up all this uncertainty. Marquette will beat UConn and beat StJ's because I'm predicting Marquette will lose to UConn and lose to StJ's. See what I'm doing here? Let's chat again next week.

[wisblue]

Completely irrelevant. 

No more so than any examples of anyone's past seasons and how they turned out.

Would you rather have your favorite team go into the tournament after a strong month, or don't you care?

[MuggsyB]

No more so than any examples of anyone's past seasons and how they turned out.

Would you rather have your favorite team go into the tournament after a strong month, or don't you care?

Of course I would so they could snag a better seed.  That's not the point. 

[wisblue]

False.

Then why are you saying we're not playing well?
[/quote

I don't think we've played near our ceiling or how we did earlier in the year.

That's not being vitriolic.  Attacking our team and coming up with stuff out of one's ass is what I object to MU82. 
[


Saying that the team has not been playing well since the end of 2024 is not disparaging or vitriolic or "attacking" the team. But you have used those words to describe posts that have pointed that out.

[The Sultan]

Because to say the team has not been playing well since the end of 2024 is a nonsensical statement.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

No more so than any examples of anyone's past seasons and how they turned out.

Would you rather have your favorite team go into the tournament after a strong month, or don't you care?

Assuming the seed is the same I wouldn't care. I may care about the reason behind why they aren't playing well. Is they're an injury? A locker room issue? I definitely care.  Have recent opponets shot the cover off the ball? Or is the team in a shooting slump? Don't care.

[geps]

It's wild to me we could end up 14-6 again in the BE yet looking at a 5 or 6 seed vs. the 2 last year. BE is better this year too.

[The Sultan]

It's wild to me we could end up 14-6 again in the BE yet looking at a 5 or 6 seed vs. the 2 last year. BE is better this year too.

Yeah, I don't think the Big East is better this year. Last year the Big East had six teams top 50 in Kenpom - three in the top 20. Right now there are only four - one in the top 20.

Furthermore the conference is why we have a lower seed. Despite our tough non conference schedule, our strength of schedule is now 46th in the country. (That will rise after the next two games I think.) Last year at tourney time it was sixth.

Brew said it above, the poor performance of the BE non-conference is dragging the conference down.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It's wild to me we could end up 14-6 again in the BE yet looking at a 5 or 6 seed vs. the 2 last year. BE is better this year too.

The BE isn't better. College basketball as a whole is better.

Our KenPom net rtg is 22.61, 24th best in the nation. Net rtg is the overall score KenPom ranks team by. The higher,  the better.

Since the first year of KenPom data (1997), a netrtg of 22.61 would have finished ranked in the top 16 every year except this year and 2017 (22nd in 2017).

There were three years when a netrtg of 22.61 would have been top 10. This includes 2023. This year's teams netrtg is higher than Shakas second year team that finished 10th in KenPom.

Put simply, in 26/28 years,  this Marquette team would be deserving of a protected seed according to KenPom. Instead college basketball is so top heavy this season that KenPom says we're barely deserving of a 6 seed.

[Shooter McGavin]

Good stuff TAMU.  Hope this team plays up to its capabilities and possibly a little above and wins a couple in the tournament.   

[DoctorV]

The BE isn't better. College basketball as a whole is better.

Our KenPom net rtg is 22.61, 24th best in the nation. Net rtg is the overall score KenPom ranks team by. The higher,  the better.

Since the first year of KenPom data (1997), a netrtg of 22.61 would have finished ranked in the top 16 every year except this year and 2017 (22nd in 2017).

There were three years when a netrtg of 22.61 would have been top 10. This includes 2023. This year's teams netrtg is higher than Shakas second year team that finished 10th in KenPom.

Put simply, in 26/28 years,  this Marquette team would be deserving of a protected seed according to KenPom. Instead college basketball is so top heavy this season that KenPom says we're barely deserving of a 6 seed.

Great data.

Do you think it's mostly due to teams being much better because they are older and more talented, or do you think teams are also jobbing the system by running up the scores and improving their efficiencies because they know how much it matters for seeding?

Sportsmanship seems to be dead, if you will?

I'd argue a little bit of both

[FairWeatherEagle]

6 now unless we win BET then 5. Would rather have 6 to tell you the truth

[MuggsyB]

I think we're a 7. 

[GoldenEagles03]

Probably an 8 now. Hope Michigan State gets bumped up to a 1 so we can have a chance to get revenge against them.

[willie warrior]

The seed should be planted now and hope that it blossoms next year when we will really dominate the BEast.

[Viper]

Eeyore gonna Eeyore.

it's a legit talking point.

[BM1090]

6. This loss doesn't hurt. I'd prefer a 7 to a 5 but 6 is a solid spot to be.

[GoldenEagles03]

6. This loss doesn't hurt. I'd prefer a 7 to a 5 but 6 is a solid spot to be.

They will be an 8 or 9 most likely. A 7 would be great at this point. Just get there healthy please

[BM1090]

They will be an 8 or 9 most likely. A 7 would be great at this point. Just get there healthy please

No they won't.

[GoldenEagles03]

No they won't.

They won't fall to a 10 of that's what you're thinking

[Vander Blue Man Group]

They will be an 8 or 9 most likely. A 7 would be great at this point. Just get there healthy please

They will not be an 8 or 9.

[GoldenEagles03]

They will not be an 8 or 9.

Very easily could be.

https://x.com/GrahamDoeren/status/1898471143247413494?t=5fs19-eI8T4D8G7M-apnVA&s=19

[GB Warrior]

Seed doesn't matter so long as the kids had fun

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Very easily could be.

https://x.com/GrahamDoeren/status/1898471143247413494?t=5fs19-eI8T4D8G7M-apnVA&s=19

Thank you for sharing an irrelevant, meaningless tweet.

I don't see it but maybe I'm way off.

[GoldenEagles03]

Thank you for sharing an irrelevant, meaningless tweet.

I don't see it but maybe I'm way off.

Graham is one of the best bracketologists around. An 8 or 9 would definitely suck, but oh well.

[MU82]

Very easily could be.

https://x.com/GrahamDoeren/status/1898471143247413494?t=5fs19-eI8T4D8G7M-apnVA&s=19

Well, if Graham Doeren says so in what he himself calls merely an "opinion" ... it's obviously a done deal.

Opinions are easy. Why, I know one guy whose opinion was that Madison was easily one of the B18G's top two teams, but they couldn't even beat Penn State at home on Senior Day.

BTW ... I have no idea what our seed will be. I certainly wouldn't base it on what one bracketologist says, regardless of what he or she says.

[CountryRoads]

The committee had us at #18 (2nd 5 seed) on 2/16/25.

Since then we are 3-3 with the 3 losses being Q1 (2 on the road). I guess we could drop 11 spots to #29 (the first 8), but that would be pretty harsh imo.

My prediction? We're a 7 in Cleveland with a date with the Spartans if we win our first. Full circle. Time for this group to get some payback on them.

[MUDPT]

Graham is one of the best bracketologists around. An 8 or 9 would definitely suck, but oh well.

He's ranked 46th in the bracket matrix rankings, so not the best around.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

He's ranked 46th in the bracket matrix rankings, so not the best around.

I'm sorry that he's down on us so he must be one of the best.

[CountryRoads]

He's ranked 46th in the bracket matrix rankings, so not the best around.

All of their final brackets will be decent. Although, collectively they are way too radical for how much they move teams by the hour. I guess I would do that too if I were a bracketologist. Whether we're a 5, 6, 7 or 8 will depend much more on logistics than any one of our game results. The committee is just looking at final resumes and metrics not who won or lost in any given 4 hours. 

Example: we finished 2018-2019 season 1-5 and entered the tournament with 9 losses and still casually received a 5 seed.

[fjm]

Just talked to a guy at lefs Cucky town, who knows a lot. He said, and this is fair...

"Do you think MU will make the tournament? They beat Wisconsin and that's it"

I like it, fair question. The "crown" tournament is finna be tough. Hope we can win at least 1 game.

[MUDPT]

Here's the number one ranked on bracket matrix

https://x.com/BracketsYago/status/1898469492096749650

[HutchwasClutch]

Just talked to a guy at lefs Cucky town, who knows a lot. He said, and this is fair...

"Do you think MU will make the tournament? They beat Wisconsin and that's it"

I like it, fair question. The "crown" tournament is finna be tough. Hope we can win at least 1 game.

No, it isn't fair, it's stupid. But thanks for letting us know what the drunks at Leff's think. He probably pays attention to one MU game per year. 

[MU82]

No, it isn't fair, it's stupid. But thanks for letting us know what the drunks at Leff's think. He probably pays attention to one MU game per year. 

I assumed fjm was being sarcastic, but these days you never know.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

No, it isn't fair, it's stupid. But thanks for letting us know what the drunks at Leff's think. He probably pays attention to one MU game per year. 

I guess people can miss even the most obvious sarcasm.

[fjm]

I was being very sarcastic. As I've said multiple times, I think we are a sweet 16 team.

[bradforster]

They will be an 8 or 9 most likely. A 7 would be great at this point. Just get there healthy please

No way.

[fjm]

They will be an 8 or 9 most likely. A 7 would be great at this point. Just get there healthy please

I'll take this bet. $20? I get 7 or lower you get 8-16?

[wisblue]

The committee had us at #18 (2nd 5 seed) on 2/16/25.

Since then we are 3-3 with the 3 losses being Q1 (2 on the road). I guess we could drop 11 spots to #29 (the first 8), but that would be pretty harsh imo.

My prediction? We're a 7 in Cleveland with a date with the Spartans if we win our first. Full circle. Time for this group to get some payback on them.

All losses hurt to some extent, if only because they represent lost opportunities for wins that could boost the resume.

They also open the door for other teams to move up as they pick up quality wins.

But I also don't think MU will drop all the way to an 8

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I'm COLE so I expect an 8 or 9.  Just hope the tournament isn't too big of a distraction for the student-athletes and their studies.

[WarriorFan]

MU has to win 2 in the BET to not be an 8 seed.  In any other case the overall selection committee historical disdain for catholic universities in the midwest not named Notre Dame will show through, and it'll be an 8 seed in the west.