[Cracked Sidewalks] Cracketology: Bracketing the Megaconferences

[brewcity77]

There have only been four instances of 9+ bids from a single league before, but this year's realignment has the SEC, Big 10, and Big 12 all reaching that with 30 combined bids. That only makes the Selection Committee's job harder. Today we break down why:

Cracketology: Bracketing the Megaconferences

[Oldgym]

Great explanation of what's become a nightmare process.  Loved this line.

"Placing the 6-seeds, the biggest issue I had was trying to remember if Texas A&M and Arizona are in the same conference."

[muwarrior69]

I thought the selection committee placed no emphasis on conference, but on each teams resume. Maybe it's time to just throw those rules out and rank the teams and who they play, they play, regardless of conference. With these super conferences how many times do these teams play each other anyway?

I know the further each team advances the more money the conference makes, but should that be a consideration?

I don't think the players really care who they play. They just want to keep playing for the championship, but the conferences probably do.

[brewcity77]

I thought the selection committee placed no emphasis on conference, but on each teams resume. Maybe it's time to just throw those rules out and rank the teams and who they play, they play, regardless of conference. With these super conferences how many times do these teams play each other anyway?

I know the further each team advances the more money the conference makes, but should that be a consideration?

I don't think the players really care who they play. They just want to keep playing for the championship, but the conferences probably do.

They don't emphasize conference, but when all the quality wins are segregated into 3 leagues, it's hard to get the wins the Selection Committee prioritizes. Earlier this week I looked at Q1 opportunities. 24 of the top 30 and 45 of the top 75 were in the B10/B12/SEC. There are 105 possible Q1 opportunities in conference play, the top-30 at home and top-75 on the road, so 69/105 Q1 games were in those leagues.

As a result, there are only 36 possible Q1 opportunities in the Big East, ACC, Mountain West, WCC, and all the other leagues combined.

Essentially what you're advocating for is Wins Above Bubble, which assigns a point value to every result based on who you play, where you play them, and the result. It's been added to the criteria this year and helps teams with fewer Q1 opportunities.

[DoctorV]

Where do we find the WAB data?

Are Nolan's team sheets the easiest?

I usually just check NET and KPom websites for the sake of time, but maybe I should look elsewhere?

[Newsdreams]

Where do we find the WAB data?

Are Nolan's team sheets the easiest?

I usually just check NET and KPom websites for the sake of time, but maybe I should look elsewhere?

Calm down, you sounding like Muggsy

[FairWeatherEagle]

Is the BIG EAST just hanging on?
Honest question. We have this resume of 4 national champs in 10 years ... So today the BE has to be taken seriously. But are we a few years away from financial obscurity and the consequences thereof.

Change is hard to take. Mega conferences and NIL...but we haven't seen the end of it. I hope the Big East survives.

[Newsdreams]

BE is doomed

[brewcity77]

Where do we find the WAB data?

Are Nolan's team sheets the easiest?

I usually just check NET and KPom websites for the sake of time, but maybe I should look elsewhere?

So for the official WAB, you can find it here: https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/42549

It's based on the original Torvik metric, but uses NET data instead of T-Rank data so that's what will reflect on the Team sheets. Each game has a score based on the opponent's NET ranking and location of the game, and your WAB goes up or down depending on that result.

I usually pull my metric rankings from Torvik, which has all the metrics updated multiple times per day: https://barttorvik.com/teamsheets.php

Is the BIG EAST just hanging on?
Honest question. We have this resume of 4 national champs in 10 years ... So today the BE has to be taken seriously. But are we a few years away from financial obscurity and the consequences thereof.

Change is hard to take. Mega conferences and NIL...but we haven't seen the end of it. I hope the Big East survives.

I sense a touch of hyperbole, but I agree that there are some potential issues. This year will be very interesting. The league really hurt itself in the first month of the season with both bad losses and close buy game wins. I do think the Big East is in good position now for 4 bids, but whether they can get to 5 will depend on if someone in that Xavier/Nova/Georgetown group can separate themselves from the pack (Xavier has the best shot based on their resume today).

Going forward, there are two main things to consider:

1. Breakaway Tournament: If the major football conferences decide to break away, they could exclude or severely limit how many Big East teams participate in a March tournament. Were that to happen, I do think they would invite non-P4 teams to participate, but the auto-bids would be gone, which would probably chop around 18-20 mid and low majors out of the field. Fans would likely want to see teams like Gonzaga, Marquette, and Memphis over the likes of South Carolina or Boston College, so I do think there would be some non-P4 inclusion, but how much it's hard to say. It's also possible the P4 leagues would poach the top basketball programs for diminished media shares (like the old Big East) which would have us fighting for a spot in the Big 10 or Big 12, most likely.

2. House Settlement: I know people will say "the power conferences will never let this happen" but the House Settlement provides a revenue sharing model. This will allow schools to share revenue to student-athletes. However because programs with football have to pay a disproportionate amount out to their 85 football scholarship players, it will mean schools like Marquette can actually revenue share more with their players than P4 programs will be able to. I don't think the P4 want to go up against the US Government and Supreme Court in this regard, so it may turn all this into an advantage for the Big East in the next decade.

Very long-winded way of saying I expect the league to survive, but it will be interesting to see what the landscape looks like in the next 5-10 years. Everything is pretty much locked into the status quo through the end of the current March Madness TV contract, so I recommend Marquette win the National Championship by 2032.

[wisblue]

I'll have to bite my lip to avoid responding to what "going up against the US government" means today.

[brewcity77]

I'll have to bite my lip to avoid responding to what "going up against the US government" means today.

I truly say that agnostic of the politics. In general, the NCAA and conferences trying to fight against the government and courts has gone very poorly for them and it's been on a bipartisan basis. It's not one party that's coming down against what the NCAA has done for generations, but both sides of the aisle and from every geographic corner of the country.

[GoldenEagles03]

There have only been four instances of 9+ bids from a single league before, but this year's realignment has the SEC, Big 10, and Big 12 all reaching that with 30 combined bids. That only makes the Selection Committee's job harder. Today we break down why:

Cracketology: Bracketing the Megaconferences

Random non-con question...didn't know where to put it.

UW-Milwaukee is almost inside the Top 100 in the NET with some sustained success/good basketball for the past few years. They are a Q2 game on the road. Has that ship sailed? Any chance we start scheduling them in the non-con? Has the recent avoidance been related strictly to lack of résumé benefit?

[Uncle Rico]

Random non-con question...didn't know where to put it.

UW-Milwaukee is almost inside the Top 100 in the NET with some sustained success/good basketball for the past few years. They are a Q2 game on the road. Has that ship sailed? Any chance we start scheduling them in the non-con? Has the recent avoidance been related strictly to lack of résumé benefit?

We're afraid of them

[brewcity77]

Random non-con question...didn't know where to put it.

UW-Milwaukee is almost inside the Top 100 in the NET with some sustained success/good basketball for the past few years. They are a Q2 game on the road. Has that ship sailed? Any chance we start scheduling them in the non-con? Has the recent avoidance been related strictly to lack of résumé benefit?

The last UWM & UWGB series, if I recall correctly, were both 3-for-1 deals. After losing at Green Bay and having a close call at the Mecca, Marquette went with the philosophy that they would not give up home games if they weren't getting a high major home game in return.

Neither have been willing to play without getting Marquette back at their place, and there's somewhat a lose-lose because if you win you were supposed to and if you lose it lasts a lot longer.

Maybe now that we're willing to give up home games to mid majors we'll see them back on the schedule, but I'd be surprised.

[The Sultan]

Random non-con question...didn't know where to put it.

UW-Milwaukee is almost inside the Top 100 in the NET with some sustained success/good basketball for the past few years. They are a Q2 game on the road. Has that ship sailed? Any chance we start scheduling them in the non-con? Has the recent avoidance been related strictly to lack of résumé benefit?

It's pretty simple. Marquette wants to treat UWM like any other random cupcake...and UWM doesn't want to be treated that way.  IOW they want either more $$$ or a home game as part of a multi year agreement.

[The Sultan]

I truly say that agnostic of the politics. In general, the NCAA and conferences trying to fight against the government and courts has gone very poorly for them and it's been on a bipartisan basis. It's not one party that's coming down against what the NCAA has done for generations, but both sides of the aisle and from every geographic corner of the country.

I do think the P4 has to play their cards at least somewhat close to the vest. A breakwaway tournament for instance, is going to make the idea of giving the NCAA antitrust status a lot more politically feasible.  The public in general doesn't mind the football changes because the balance of power has always favored the rich and powerful, and it could be argued the current set up makes a non-P4 champion a much better possibility.

But messing too much with March Madness and the politics change drastically.  So you will see more at-large bids and more conference champion play-in games IMO. And the at-larges based on NET will almost entirely favor the P4 plus Big East.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

The last UWM & UWGB series, if I recall correctly, were both 3-for-1 deals. After losing at Green Bay and having a close call at the Mecca, Marquette went with the philosophy that they would not give up home games if they weren't getting a high major home game in return.

Neither have been willing to play without getting Marquette back at their place, and there's somewhat a lose-lose because if you win you were supposed to and if you lose it lasts a lot longer.

Maybe now that we're willing to give up home games to mid majors we'll see them back on the schedule, but I'd be surprised.

There's a big difference between scheduling upper level A-10 teams and Horizon league schools.

[The Sultan]

There's a big difference between scheduling upper level A-10 teams and Horizon league schools.

Yeah. I almost did the eye-roll emoji with that one...

[brewcity77]

There's a big difference between scheduling upper level A-10 teams and Horizon league schools.

Dayton is 70 in the NET this morning and Milwaukee is 107. Dayton is holding on to Q1 status (barely) but it's not that big a difference. Our WAB would change by -0.2 had we lost at Milwaukee instead. Again, it's really not that big a difference.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Dayton is 70 in the NET this morning and Milwaukee is 107. Dayton is holding on to Q1 status (barely) but it's not that big a difference. Our WAB would change by -0.2 had we lost at Milwaukee instead. Again, it's really not that big a difference.

Now do that based on their preaeason metrics. Then do it based on average metrics from the last 5, 10, 15 years.

Trying to compare Dayton to UWM is silly.

[Newsdreams]

The last UWM & UWGB series, if I recall correctly, were both 3-for-1 deals. After losing at Green Bay and having a close call at the Mecca, Marquette went with the philosophy that they would not give up home games if they weren't getting a high major home game in return.

Neither have been willing to play without getting Marquette back at their place, and there's somewhat a lose-lose because if you win you were supposed to and if you lose it lasts a lot longer.

Maybe now that we're willing to give up home games to mid majors we'll see them back on the schedule, but I'd be surprised.

UW was supposedly asking for $ at one point.

[GoldenEagles03]

It's pretty simple. Marquette wants to treat UWM like any other random cupcake...and UWM doesn't want to be treated that way.  IOW they want either more $$$ or a home game as part of a multi year agreement.

I enjoyed watching MU play at UWGB and UWM. Good fun for hoops in the State. Makes sense with quads and metrics and all else why it's all but eliminated.

Side note...in 2004 (I think)...I went to the Marquette/Southern Miss game at the Resch Center in GB. Horrible result, but still fun to see a turnout in another in state arena.

[TallTitan34]

Good fun for hoops in the State.

Attendance says otherwise.

[The Sultan]

Attendance says otherwise.

Yeah it was pretty clear that very few people cared about those opponents. UWM may as well be Presbyterian.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Dayton is 70 in the NET this morning and Milwaukee is 107. Dayton is holding on to Q1 status (barely) but it's not that big a difference. Our WAB would change by -0.2 had we lost at Milwaukee instead. Again, it's really not that big a difference.

I noticed you omitted NET #340 Green Bay from your argument. Convenient.

Oh, BTW, Dayton has a better NET than 5 BE teams and a better NET than high major NC State (#119), who supposedly fell through.

As long as the mid major is our 6th best non-conference game and versus teams like Dayton, VCU, Drake, St. Mary's, Memphis, Utah State, Boise State, San Diego St, etc , then I'm fine with it.