The War in Russia

[tower912]

Yes.  But there was a huge isolationist streak both in congress and among the citizenry.

[MuggsyB]

Yes.  But there was a huge isolationist streak both in congress and among the citizenry.

And it contributed to mass genocide. 

[Uncle Rico]

We'll agree to disagree.  Roosevelt knew what was happening and we should have tried to thwart Nazi aggression as early at '38.

How?  He didn't have the political support or the public support.  There was a pro-German faction in the nation and you have prominent Americans like Lindbergh preaching non-intervention. It's not as simple as FDR saying go to war over crimes against humanity.  In fact, we might be ashamed at how some might have reacted to going to war over it

[Uncle Rico]

And it contributed to mass genocide.

So did the Treaty of Westphalia, colonialism, WWI, the India-Pakistan split and on and on.

Revising history doesn't change history.  One action doesn't equal just x

[tower912]

 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

We'll agree to disagree.  Roosevelt knew what was happening and we should have tried to thwart Nazi aggression as early at '38. 

1938? Before Germany even invaded Poland? Even the UK and France didn't get involved then.

[MuggsyB]

So did the Treaty of Westphalia, colonialism, WWI, the India-Pakistan split and on and on.

Revising history doesn't change history.  One action doesn't equal just x

The T of W is not analogous to the world close to 300 years later.and what could have been done imo.  We fked up Versailles as well with the "Dawes Plan".  Absolutely idiotic. 

[Uncle Rico]

1938? Before Germany even invaded Poland? Even the UK and France didn't get involved then.

I mean, there were plenty of opportunities to do so before then. 

America was in no position either way.  We'd have been routed in any attempt.  People don't understand how vulnerable we were militarily at that time from a manpower and equipment standpoint.  December 7th changed it all.  The ramp up to becoming an effective fighting force is one of the most incredible feats in human history.

[Uncle Rico]

The T of W is not analogous to the world close to 300 years later.and what could have been done imo.  We fked up Versailles as well with the "Dawes Plan".  Absolutely idiotic.

Every action in European history lead up to WWII, so 🤷🏼‍♂️

[reinko]

We'll agree to disagree.  Roosevelt knew what was happening and we should have tried to thwart Nazi aggression as early at '38.

MMQB a world war and matter a factly stating a world leader "knew" something and didn't act is certainly an interesting tact

[tower912]

Muggsy gotta Muggsy.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The T of W is not analogous to the world close to 300 years later.and what could have been done imo.  We fked up Versailles as well with the "Dawes Plan".  Absolutely idiotic. 

The "what if Franz Ferdinand wasn't assasinated" may be the most interesting in history. WW1 was one nobody really wanted but were dragged into. Kinda think the nationalistic movements in Austria-Hungary could have been managed diplomatically instead. Similar to how the Hungarian question was addressed.

[MuggsyB]

We've allowed all sorts of slaughtering well after WW2 and even Cambodia. See the continent of Africa.  Totally inexcusable. 

[Uncle Rico]

We've allowed all sorts of slaughtering well after WW2 and even Cambodia. See the continent of Africa.  Totally inexcusable.

We've?  We?  How has America done as the world's policeman overall?

It's not that simple to just throw troops at a situation.  It's not even that simple to use economic leverage in these situations.

Your heart is in a good place and I understand the frustration but American intervention isn't always the answer

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The West wasn't Won until Zeppelin played the Forum in '72.

[Scoop Snoop]

The T of W is not analogous to the world close to 300 years later.and what could have been done imo.  We fked up Versailles as well with the "Dawes Plan".  Absolutely idiotic.

Muggs, love your enthusiasm for MU bball, but your absolute cluelessness regarding history is simply mind boggling.

Find a respected history professor or authors who have carefully and professionally researched the subjects of their books and have takes even remotely near yours. Then I will listen and take your version of history seriously. I am not a professional historian but have read stacks of history related books over many years. Nothing I have ever read comes remotely close to your theories and narratives.

All you have accomplished here is to derail this thread. Starting with a post of yours, there are now 22 posts that have nothing to do with the thread started by Tower.

[WarriorFan]

Now that I no longer live in Russia and have all my assets out it's ok to comment.

1.  Putin is drunk on power like many long term autocrats such as Pinochet, Soeharto, Mahatir, Pol Pot, etc.
2.  Most Russians still think the devil you know is better than the devil you don't
3.  None of the immediate successors would be better or more stable than Putin.  Prigozhin is a criminal through and through, and is always available to the highest bidder.
4.  As much as the west likes to blame them, the Oligarchs are not to blame in this case.  That would be the equivalent of the US citizenry and press asking Musk, Buffet, Bezos, Ellison and Gates to overthrow the US president.  Regardless of how they gained their companies and their positions, these guys are now businessmen.  Most were the smartest guy in the room when it was there for the taking, and they now run some serious companies. 
5.  No-one in Russia today is strong enough to take down Putin.  It will take more mistakes by Putin PLUS a series of external and internal "events".  It would also take any individual or political party many years to usurp Putin... if they survive.  The level of checks and balances in place to maintain the power structure is unreal. 

Don't take any of this please as pro-Putin.  Russia is a great country with great people.  The 2nd most patriotic country I've ever experienced.  Putin is no longer Russia and Russia never was Putin.  Putin has invaded a sovereign state and this sort of action must never be tolerated, no matter where or by whom.

The end game hasn't even started, and will take a long time to unveil. 

Word to the wise:  Watch China's role in all this. 

[Scoop Snoop]

Wow! Fascinating post WarriorFan. Your last sentence is chilling, but I think it will prove to be true.

[StillAWarrior]

Prigozhin is probably going to want to hire a food taster and stay away from windows. I've got to imagine his days are numbered. You come at the king, you best not miss.

Don't take any of this please as pro-Putin.

Ditto.

[pbiflyer]

Now that I no longer live in Russia and have all my assets out it's ok to comment.

1.  Putin is drunk on power like many long term autocrats such as Pinochet, Soeharto, Mahatir, Pol Pot, etc.
2.  Most Russians still think the devil you know is better than the devil you don't
3.  None of the immediate successors would be better or more stable than Putin.  Prigozhin is a criminal through and through, and is always available to the highest bidder.
4.  As much as the west likes to blame them, the Oligarchs are not to blame in this case.  That would be the equivalent of the US citizenry and press asking Musk, Buffet, Bezos, Ellison and Gates to overthrow the US president.  Regardless of how they gained their companies and their positions, these guys are now businessmen.  Most were the smartest guy in the room when it was there for the taking, and they now run some serious companies. 
5.  No-one in Russia today is strong enough to take down Putin.  It will take more mistakes by Putin PLUS a series of external and internal "events".  It would also take any individual or political party many years to usurp Putin... if they survive.  The level of checks and balances in place to maintain the power structure is unreal. 

Don't take any of this please as pro-Putin.  Russia is a great country with great people.  The 2nd most patriotic country I've ever experienced.  Putin is no longer Russia and Russia never was Putin.  Putin has invaded a sovereign state and this sort of action must never be tolerated, no matter where or by whom.

The end game hasn't even started, and will take a long time to unveil. 

Word to the wise:  Watch China's role in all this.

I am pretty sure that well thought out, fact laden posts are a TOS violation at scoop. 

(Seriously, thanks for insight unavailable to the average person. This is better analysis than most, if not all the talking heads I have heard)

On another aspect of this whole mess, I don't understand the drive for money and power when these people (Putin, Wagner guy, et. al.) spend most of their waking time looking over the shoulder.  All the money in the world, but no freedom. Sounds like an awful life.

[Uncle Rico]

Now that I no longer live in Russia and have all my assets out it's ok to comment.

1.  Putin is drunk on power like many long term autocrats such as Pinochet, Soeharto, Mahatir, Pol Pot, etc.
2.  Most Russians still think the devil you know is better than the devil you don't
3.  None of the immediate successors would be better or more stable than Putin.  Prigozhin is a criminal through and through, and is always available to the highest bidder.
4.  As much as the west likes to blame them, the Oligarchs are not to blame in this case.  That would be the equivalent of the US citizenry and press asking Musk, Buffet, Bezos, Ellison and Gates to overthrow the US president.  Regardless of how they gained their companies and their positions, these guys are now businessmen.  Most were the smartest guy in the room when it was there for the taking, and they now run some serious companies. 
5.  No-one in Russia today is strong enough to take down Putin.  It will take more mistakes by Putin PLUS a series of external and internal "events".  It would also take any individual or political party many years to usurp Putin... if they survive.  The level of checks and balances in place to maintain the power structure is unreal. 

Don't take any of this please as pro-Putin.  Russia is a great country with great people.  The 2nd most patriotic country I've ever experienced.  Putin is no longer Russia and Russia never was Putin.  Putin has invaded a sovereign state and this sort of action must never be tolerated, no matter where or by whom.

The end game hasn't even started, and will take a long time to unveil. 

Word to the wise:  Watch China's role in all this.

Number 2 is a really important point.

Western society looks at Russia and asks how Putin holds on, this is a good answer.  This goes back to the Tsars.  They knew that devil, not the new devil that replaced them but once the communists took over, they quickly adopted the new devil.  It's a certain tragic flaw of Russians. 

I think it's incomprehensible for many Americans to understand this mindset.  It clouds our judgement in understanding foreign relations and diplomacy.

[4everwarriors]

Crean sucks

[Coleman]

Not sure how this morphed into a World War II alternate history thread.

Russia will end up being a vassal state of China. It is all but inevitable at this point. China has a vested interest in maintaining regional stability and any threat to that will be dealt with immediately. Whether that includes Putin as its figurehead remains to be seen, China will likely support whoever is most likely to maintain stability and whoever is most economically advantageous to them. It would not surprise me in the least if they were involved behind the scenes in quelling this rebellion. Lukashenko has no real power....he is a Putin puppet. Prigozhin did not turn around for no reason. It would not surprise me if he got word that China was going to support Putin in the event of any rebellion. That would be game over for him. Putin is evil but somewhat predictable, and the Chinese know they can work with him. Prigozhin is a true wild card, and his hand on the nuclear button would cause major regional instability and bring nothing but headaches for Beijing.

China will also be the one to decide if/when Russia gives up this disastrous war in Ukraine. If Putin loses Chinese support, he's done.

The 2 biggest winners of the War in Ukraine have been NATO and China. Russia is now a third rate power.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I'm not sure how Russia will become a "vasal state" of China when the former has a great deal of the resources the latter needs.

China has undoubtedly grown in influence, but that's Russia's own doing.

[WarriorFan]

I'm not sure how Russia will become a "vasal state" of China when the former has a great deal of the resources the latter needs.

I'm also not sure "how" it will happen.  It could be economic, it could be military, it could be resource based.  I'm not sure when it will happen.  I believe it is the most likely outcome.