The War in Russia

[Coleman]

I'm not sure how Russia will become a "vasal state" of China when the former has a great deal of the resources the latter needs.

China has undoubtedly grown in influence, but that's Russia's own doing.

Yes, but most of the world is refusing to buy these resouces, with the exception of China and India.

Russia needs China much, much more than China needs Russia.

[MuggsyB]

Now that I no longer live in Russia and have all my assets out it's ok to comment.

1.  Putin is drunk on power like many long term autocrats such as Pinochet, Soeharto, Mahatir, Pol Pot, etc.
2.  Most Russians still think the devil you know is better than the devil you don't
3.  None of the immediate successors would be better or more stable than Putin.  Prigozhin is a criminal through and through, and is always available to the highest bidder.
4.  As much as the west likes to blame them, the Oligarchs are not to blame in this case.  That would be the equivalent of the US citizenry and press asking Musk, Buffet, Bezos, Ellison and Gates to overthrow the US president.  Regardless of how they gained their companies and their positions, these guys are now businessmen.  Most were the smartest guy in the room when it was there for the taking, and they now run some serious companies. 
5.  No-one in Russia today is strong enough to take down Putin.  It will take more mistakes by Putin PLUS a series of external and internal "events".  It would also take any individual or political party many years to usurp Putin... if they survive.  The level of checks and balances in place to maintain the power structure is unreal. 

Don't take any of this please as pro-Putin.  Russia is a great country with great people.  The 2nd most patriotic country I've ever experienced.  Putin is no longer Russia and Russia never was Putin.  Putin has invaded a sovereign state and this sort of action must never be tolerated, no matter where or by whom.

The end game hasn't even started, and will take a long time to unveil. 

Word to the wise:  Watch China's role in all this.

Thank you for your comments.   There's a lot to think about when it comes to China's potential role.  None of which is particularly good for the United States. 

[dgies9156]

How?  He didn’t have the political support or the public support.  There was a pro-German faction in the nation and you have prominent Americans like Lindbergh preaching non-intervention. It’s not as simple as FDR saying go to war over crimes against humanity.  In fact, we might be ashamed at how some might have reacted to going to war over it

Monday morning quarterbacks can look at the situation and make a different claim. But FDR, for better or worse, was sitting in the decision chair at the time.

One option would have been to bomb the concentration camps at Treblinka, Dachau and Auschwitz. The rail lines, the trains and the facilities that fed the Holocaust. Maybe that would have worked -- or maybe the Nazis would have rebuilt them. Plus, the B-17s and B-24s did not have the range to reach the camps without landing in Russia or Russian held territory. The US tried like all get out to negotiate landing rights for bombers after depositing their payloads on Germany. The Russians "sort of" agreed but made the process so painful that few bombers ended up landing in the east.

The camps were way too far east

Josef Stalin saw us as both an ally and a potential enemy.

[tower912]

Well played.


Edit... I liked it better when you stopped at 'Monday morning Q', dgies.     I thought it was brilliant commentary, some of your best.   

[#UnleashSean]

Josef Stalin saw us as both an ally and a potential enemy.

To be fair to Stalin, the US and UK literally had a plan to align with German forces after deposing Hitler, and attack the USSR.

[Lennys Tap]

To be fair to Stalin, the US and UK literally had a plan to align with German forces after deposing Hitler, and attack the USSR.

Too bad it never came to fruition.

[MUBurrow]

One option would have been to bomb the concentration camps at Treblinka, Dachau and Auschwitz. The rail lines, the trains and the facilities that fed the Holocaust. Maybe that would have worked -- or maybe the Nazis would have rebuilt them. Plus, the B-17s and B-24s did not have the range to reach the camps without landing in Russia or Russian held territory. The US tried like all get out to negotiate landing rights for bombers after depositing their payloads on Germany. The Russians "sort of" agreed but made the process so painful that few bombers ended up landing in the east.

There is a Secrets of the Dead episode that I've been meaning to watch that examines the debate among the US and British high command on whether to bomb Auschwitz.

[Uncle Rico]

Sort of like the idea of America immediately turning its back on an ally at the end of WWII and becoming the very thing they defeated.  Be the aggressor and extend American hegemony across the whole of Europe and into the Pacific.  Ramifications certainly would have been minimal in both the short term and long term.

The number of casualties would have been staggering unless we used the bomb beyond Japan, in this case, as a weapon of aggression.  Certainly wouldn’t have been a long term problem.  Everything would be perfect in the world today, probably.

[MuggsyB]

Monday morning quarterbacks can look at the situation and make a different claim. But FDR, for better or worse, was sitting in the decision chair at the time.

One option would have been to bomb the concentration camps at Treblinka, Dachau and Auschwitz. The rail lines, the trains and the facilities that fed the Holocaust. Maybe that would have worked -- or maybe the Nazis would have rebuilt them. Plus, the B-17s and B-24s did not have the range to reach the camps without landing in Russia or Russian held territory. The US tried like all get out to negotiate landing rights for bombers after depositing their payloads on Germany. The Russians "sort of" agreed but made the process so painful that few bombers ended up landing in the east.

The camps were way too far east

Josef Stalin saw us as both an ally and a potential enemy.

There's plenty of literature about FDR's tepid response to the concentration camps and that he knew full well what was going on.  Including meeting with Jews that got out.  He never felt strongly about it from many of the things I've read.  And frankly we as a nation contributed to it because there was virulent antisemitism at the time.  It's also worth noting that antisemitism is as bad today worldwide as it's been since WW2.  Roosevelt essentially didn't say one word about these camps until years after he knew and all the murder took place.   Imo we have a moral responsibility to prevent such mass killing of innocent people.  And what have we done since??  Even after Stalin, Mao, and Pol Pot?  Nothing.  We absolutely could and should have stopped what happened in Rwanda and Sierra Leone for starters.   Inexcusable. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

FDR of course knew about the camps. His long held belief, rightly or wrongly, was that the best way the United State could provide relief was to defeat Germany in the war. He established the War Refugee Board too late after pressure on a number of fronts, but it was effective for the short time it was in existence. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Kari Lake Declares Herself New Leader of the Wagner Group

PHOENIX (The Borowitz Report)—The situation in Russia descended into further uncertainty after Kari Lake stunned geopolitical experts by declaring herself the new leader of the Wagner Group.

Speaking from the mercenary force’s new headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona, the former anchorwoman claimed that she won the leadership of Wagner by a landslide.

She warned Russian state media against questioning her claim to the Wagner helm. “I will be your worst frickin’ nightmare,” she said.

Wagner troops expressed surprise at Lake’s sudden elevation and reservations about whether she would be an improvement over their former leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. “She seems really mean,” one said.

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/kari-lake-declares-herself-new-leader-of-the-wagner-group

[MuggsyB]

Kari Lake Declares Herself New Leader of the Wagner Group

PHOENIX (The Borowitz Report)—The situation in Russia descended into further uncertainty after Kari Lake stunned geopolitical experts by declaring herself the new leader of the Wagner Group.

Speaking from the mercenary force’s new headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona, the former anchorwoman claimed that she won the leadership of Wagner by a landslide.

She warned Russian state media against questioning her claim to the Wagner helm. “I will be your worst frickin’ nightmare,” she said.

Wagner troops expressed surprise at Lake’s sudden elevation and reservations about whether she would be an improvement over their former leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. “She seems really mean,” one said.

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/kari-lake-declares-herself-new-leader-of-the-wagner-group

W
T
F
?

[tower912]

Look at the link. 

It

Is

Satire

[MuggsyB]

Look at the link. 

It

Is

Satire

Oh...okay. 

[Lennys Tap]

Look at the link. 

It

Is

Satire

Isn’t

Satire

Supposed

To

Be

Funny?

[tower912]

Humor, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.   I miss the good old days when you could laugh.

[Uncle Rico]

Humor, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.   I miss the good old days when you could laugh.

Everyone should laugh at Kari Lake

[Lennys Tap]

Humor, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.   I miss the good old days when you could laugh.

Very true, my friend. But I still laugh all the time at things that are funny. Just today I literally laughed out loud recalling your story of driving in a car alone and wearing a mask to ward off Covid. Now THAT was funny. And original.

Sometimes Rico is funny and original, just not as often as he used to be. I miss those good old days.

[tower912]

The story was I was going to wear a mask while driving to inspire road rage.   I liked that one.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Isn’t

Satire

Supposed

To

Be

Funny?

Right. We shouldn't laugh at Kari Lake. Check.

[WarriorFan]

Yes, but most of the world is refusing to buy these resouces, with the exception of China and India.

Russia needs China much, much more than China needs Russia.

I will respectfully disagree.  Russian coal production has barely dropped... it's all getting consumed somewhere.  Lots gets "washed" when combined with other cargoes.  Same for oil.  Russian oil is getting mixed with other sources and/ or refined in places that then sell it to the global market.  Read about what's happening with Gold in UAE.  Diamonds from Russia are sold on friendly markets or "washed" into global markets and production has not dropped much. 

China has a very limited supply of water, oil, gas, skilled people, tillable land, forest products, iron ore, phosphate (for fertilizer) and copper.  Their coal and metals mines are ridiculously inefficient and very high cost which is why they buy so much production from offshore.  China needs a lot of what Russia has, and is working slowly and carefully to gain control of Russian production.  Check out how many hectares of Russian forest is already owned by Chinese companies.

Prior to the war it had been harder for China to exert economic influence over Russia the way they have over African countries.  Now the control structures in Russia are weaker and the need for buyers is stronger.  The Chinese are coming in and spreading lots of money around.  It's clear what they want to happen next - they want to own the government the same way they own Ziimbabwe or DRC.

[Lennys Tap]

Right. We shouldn't laugh at Kari Lake. Check.

Kari Lake, you, me and everyone can be the butt of jokes. I just like my jokes funny. You don’t care as long as the butt of the joke is someone you don’t like.

So which of us has a sense of humor?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Kari Lake, you, me and everyone can be the butt of jokes. I just like my jokes funny. You don’t care as long as the butt of the joke is someone you don’t like.

So which of us has a sense of humor?

My apologies. I'll stick to the "<insert exotic animal> is delicious" formula that the underboard finds the height of humor even on the 403rd iteration.

If Lenny doesn't find it funny, no one finds it funny.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Look at the link. 

It

Is

Satire

Only because the new Yorker URL told you it was humor.

[Lennys Tap]

My apologies. I'll stick to the "<insert exotic animal> is delicious" formula that the underboard finds the height of humor even on the 403rd iteration.

I have no idea what you’re talking about but it sure doesn’t sound funny. At least the way you’re telling it.