The Future of Cities

[dgies9156]

One of the things to which we must distinguish is the future of all cities, versus regional cities (i.e., Midwest, Northeast, small/large, rest of the country).

Cities in the sunbelt and the west are, long-term, viable and generally will continue dramatic growth. I'm thinking Nashville, Charlotte, Austin and Orlando. With the exception of, possibly, Nashville, the economies aren't based on traditional manufacturing and warehousing. All have a niche that's somewhat resilient to steep downturns and the growth of these cities covers up for some of the sociological problems they face.

Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles all will be strong and even stronger if they solve their homeless problem. Ditto for Denver and Phoenix.

Where we have problems are in sunsetting cities. Government is an increasingly large part of the economy, through transfer payments and make-work jobs. S0ocialists may disagree with me but far-left mayors and governors discourage long-term investment, particularly capital investment that is not easily portable. Having to bail out pension systems in New Jersey, Illinois and Connecticut, for example, by themselves is a hugely discouraging factor in investment in any of these states. This despite good educational systems, talented workers and mature infrastructure.

Small cities are only as good as the company they keep. Classic case is the Quad Cities of Western Illinois and Eastern Iowa. In 1978, when I arrived there, it was a blue collar paradise and nobody ever dreamed anything would change. Case, International Harvester, Caterpillar and Deere all had major manufacturing in the area. Collectively, they employed about 35,000 people at the time. Their suppliers probably employed another 10,000. By 1988, all 35,000 manufacturing jobs, or 10 percent of the regional population, were gone. It's 35 years later and the area still has not recovered -- and probably never will.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Real questions about where cities in the West are going to get their water from if they continue to grow.  That's a way bigger issue than homelessness.

[Uncle Rico]

Real questions about where cities in the West are going to get their water from if they continue to grow.  That's a way bigger issue than homelessness.

Sure is

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I have no love for either party, but a comment from British Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher years ago was SO spot on: "The problem with socialism is that sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."  I love the quote because it clearly identifies how governments do what they do.

The big problem with this quote is when you control the printing press you don't run out of anyone's money.  You just print more.

[jesmu84]

Homelessness is a problem?

I think I can come up with a solution...

[Hards Alumni]

Homelessness is a problem?

I think I can come up with a solution...

I gotchu.

Homes.

[lawdog77]

Homelessness is a problem?

I think I can come up with a solution...

more guns?

[Uncle Rico]

Homelessness is a problem?

I think I can come up with a solution...

Couple of ideas:

1. Make them into food and feed the slaves mining cobalt

2. Pay-per-view fights to the death

3. Ignore them and blame immigrants

[PorkysButthole]

First of all, Marquette isn't moving. Ever.

Second, Marquette's mission is to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and the Midwest first. Marquette's commitment to the inner city is an essential part of the Jesuit mission of Men and Women for Others. The notion of Marquette on some leafy green campus in Mequon or Cudahy is theoretically appealing to suburbanites but not in keeping with who we are.

Porky concurs with Dgies and The Sultan.  MU is not moving nor should it and it's urban location is its greatest strength!   

That said, Heisenberg is absolutely correct in acknowledging WASH U in STL as a great example of a National University that is thriving in an extremely declining area.   It's not just perceived to be a National University.  It is one in every sense of the word.  MU may perceive itself as a National University but isn't remotely close to one in Porky's opinion with 75% of all undergrads hailing from two states.  Wash U actually brags that 70% of its undergrads grew up more than 500 miles from STL.  MU isn't ever going to achieve that and that's ok.   Unlike downtown STL though, downtown MKE seems to be thriving.  Porky's been to MKE twice this year already and Downtown was packed both times and lots of new hotels have been built in the last few years as well.  MU needs to branch out and attract a lot more students from other parts of the country.  That doesn't mean MU is abandoning its commitment to MKE in general or it's inner city in particular.  Porky would argue strongly that if MU adopted such a strategy, the city of MKE would be strengthened considerably and might be able to offer more scholarships for qualified inner city MKE students  to attend MU.   The stronger MU becomes the stronger MKE becomes!

[PorkysButthole]

Interesting subject.   NYC may be a bad example since it's an international city that doesn't really have a downtown in the same sense as MKE, but it's largely recovered from the pandemic.   On any given evening, almost all decent restaurants and bars are packed in both midtown and the residential areas of Manhattan, and the better parts of Brooklyn.  Rents are the highest they've ever been and demand among young people and recent college grads to live in NYC is as strong as it's always been.  Anecdotally, Porky's been fielding 2-3 linkedin connection requests a week for the past two months from current MU seniors looking for jobs in NYC.

The one area that still hasn't yet recovered is return to offices.  It's better than it was this time last year, but most suburban folk like Porky are only commuting to the office 2-3x per week, so businesses that are dependent on commuters are still struggling, although not to the same extent that they were a year or two ago.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I'm just self aware.  The meme doesn't fit here.

You made money the old fashioned way then, aina?

[Hards Alumni]

You made money the old fashioned way then, aina?

Yes, capitalism.

[Not A Serious Person]

Porky concurs with Dgies and The Sultan.  MU is not moving nor should it and it's urban location is its greatest strength!   

That said, Heisenberg is absolutely correct in acknowledging WASH U in STL as a great example of a National University that is thriving in an extremely declining area.   It's not just perceived to be a National University.  It is one in every sense of the word.  MU may perceive itself as a National University but isn't remotely close to one in Porky's opinion with 75% of all undergrads hailing from two states.  Wash U actually brags that 70% of its undergrads grew up more than 500 miles from STL.  MU isn't ever going to achieve that and that's ok.   Unlike downtown STL though, downtown MKE seems to be thriving.  Porky's been to MKE twice this year already and Downtown was packed both times and lots of new hotels have been built in the last few years as well.  MU needs to branch out and attract a lot more students from other parts of the country.  That doesn't mean MU is abandoning its commitment to MKE in general or it's inner city in particular.  Porky would argue strongly that if MU adopted such a strategy, the city of MKE would be strengthened considerably and might be able to offer more scholarships for qualified inner city MKE students  to attend MU.   The stronger MU becomes the stronger MKE becomes!

Good post

But I remind everyone that every city has a hot trending neighborhood, and always will. Third Ward in Milwaukee, Fulton Market in Chicago, FiDi (Financial District) in NYC.

And it is a gigantic mistake to think that one hot neighborhood means all is well.

I'll quote (again) the Milwaukee Journal that shot down this belief.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2023/03/08/whats-path-for-milwaukee-to-reverse-population-decline-grow-again/69959649007/


Still, the optics of Milwaukee’s population decline can be deceiving. In some places, it looks and feels like the city is growing. The city saw an explosion of new apartment buildings and condominiums in the last two decades. The apartment building boom continues. Right now, construction is underway on a 44-story tower near the Milwaukee Art Museum. A 31-story apartment building is rising on the northwestern edge of the city’s Third Ward.

The number of occupied housing units in the city increased by 5,000 in the last decade. So, how can our population be declining?

The answer lies in shrinking household sizes in Milwaukee. Most of the new housing units in Milwaukee were smaller apartments with one or two people living in them. Citywide, the typical household size fell from 2.5 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2020.

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The single biggest problem for a northern city is the declining population. They all have it (see the first post in this thread). It means all northern cities are declining, just a matter of degree.

----

And you are correct that 75% of MU students come from two areas that are in trouble, Chicagoland and WI. Both are falling behind the rest of the country and will continue to go forward

So, if the answer is MU will never move, and that is a reasonable argument, then either MU has to transcend the plight of being in a big northern city, like Wash U, or it will be worse in 5 to 10 years, and decline further in 15 to 20 years.

[Not A Serious Person]

Interesting subject.   NYC may be a bad example since it's an international city that doesn't really have a downtown in the same sense as MKE, but it's largely recovered from the pandemic.   On any given evening, almost all decent restaurants and bars are packed in both midtown and the residential areas of Manhattan, and the better parts of Brooklyn.  Rents are the highest they've ever been and demand among young people and recent college grads to live in NYC is as strong as it's always been.  Anecdotally, Porky's been fielding 2-3 linkedin connection requests a week for the past two months from current MU seniors looking for jobs in NYC.

The one area that still hasn't yet recovered is return to offices.  It's better than it was this time last year, but most suburban folk like Porky are only commuting to the office 2-3x per week, so businesses that are dependent on commuters are still struggling, although not to the same extent that they were a year or two ago.

Office usage in NYC is 50% of pre-pandemic. And it is setting NYC back.

Bloomberg detailed this a few months ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-manhattan-work-from-home/
Remote Work Is Costing Manhattan More Than $12 Billion a Year
Three years into the pandemic, business leaders and city officials around the world are still trying just about everything to lure employees back into offices and revive local economies. But new data on in-person work analyzed by Bloomberg News show that in a number of cities across the US, Fridays at the office are dead. Mondays are a crapshoot. And returning to pre-pandemic work schedules looks like a lost cause.



The supply of NYC restaurants is way down versus pre-pandemic.

https://ny.eater.com/2023/2/3/23580317/nyc-restaurant-closings-february-2023#:~:text=Close%20to%20three%20years%20after,caused%20by%20the%20coronavirus%20pandemic.

Close to three years after New York’s first indoor dining shutdown, restaurants and bars continue to struggle. More than 4,500 have closed since the onset of the pandemic due to the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Since it’s difficult to track restaurant and bar closings, experts say that number is likely much higher and will take years to fully assess.

Rents are also a poor metric of the health of a city.

https://www.curbed.com/2023/01/nyc-real-estate-covid-more-apartments-higher-rent.html
New Yorkers Never Came ‘Flooding Back.’ Why Did Rents Go Up So Much?
Getting to the bottom of a COVID-era real estate mystery.

[PorkysButthole]

So, if the answer is MU will never move, and that is a reasonable argument, then either MU has to transcend the plight of being in a big northern city, like Wash U, or it will be worse in 5 to 10 years, and decline further in 15 to 20 years.

On this, Porky could not agree more!  Hopefully the powers that be at MU are listening to scoop!

[PorkysButthole]

Office usage in NYC is 50% of pre-pandemic. And it is setting NYC back.

Bloomberg detailed this a few months ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-manhattan-work-from-home/
Remote Work Is Costing Manhattan More Than $12 Billion a Year
Three years into the pandemic, business leaders and city officials around the world are still trying just about everything to lure employees back into offices and revive local economies. But new data on in-person work analyzed by Bloomberg News show that in a number of cities across the US, Fridays at the office are dead. Mondays are a crapshoot. And returning to pre-pandemic work schedules looks like a lost cause.



The supply of NYC restaurants is way down versus pre-pandemic.

https://ny.eater.com/2023/2/3/23580317/nyc-restaurant-closings-february-2023#:~:text=Close%20to%20three%20years%20after,caused%20by%20the%20coronavirus%20pandemic.

Close to three years after New York’s first indoor dining shutdown, restaurants and bars continue to struggle. More than 4,500 have closed since the onset of the pandemic due to the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Since it’s difficult to track restaurant and bar closings, experts say that number is likely much higher and will take years to fully assess.

Rents are also a poor metric of the health of a city.

https://www.curbed.com/2023/01/nyc-real-estate-covid-more-apartments-higher-rent.html
New Yorkers Never Came ‘Flooding Back.’ Why Did Rents Go Up So Much?
Getting to the bottom of a COVID-era real estate mystery.

All fair points backed up by data.   There was a similar article about the same issue in today's WSJ in fact.  It's behind a subscription wall but scoopers who are WSJ subs can find that article in the link below:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/manhattans-top-office-landlord-looks-at-plan-b-20aa3198?page=1

At the end of the day, All Porky can do is report what Porky sees when Porky goes to work or visits a younger sibling, as Porky often does, who lives in Manhattan.

One thing to keep in mind.....just because the surviving restaurants, bars and theaters are full doesn't mean those customers are New Yorkers themselves.   Many could very well be suburbanites like Porky.

The Bloomberg article is spot on though about Mondays and Fridays.   Porky's company's official policy is 3x per week, and supposedly big brother is monitoring card swipes but most people are only coming in 2x per week and so far at least, not being punished for it.

The young and single folks in their 20's and early 30's that do live in the city are the only ones coming into our offices more than that which makes sense given most live in small apartments with roommates.

[Not A Serious Person]

I think he just wants to have a discussion. 

The trap is that there is often a conclusion made with political undertones added.

The reality is that cities will continue to grow and rural America will become smaller and smaller.  Trying to pin this trend on one thing or another is a fool's errand.

There are a myriad of reasons why populations grow in one place, and shrink in another, and then change back over time.

If you want my true opinion, Heise 2.0 has always presented himself as a conservative around here, and he is trying to correlate an uptick in crime with a decrease in urban populations.  That is his political undertone, and his argument is wafer thin. But most people are simple.  They want logic or data to all fit nicely into one box or another.  It doesn't.  You can't describe why anything as complex as population variation over time in a single sentence. 

But "crime is bad in big scary cities and that's why people are fleeing in record numbers" is a great way to drive clicks to a website or draw eyes to a television.  ESPECIALLY, if the person who is reading or watching has recently moved away from a city or is considering moving away from an urban area.  It adds to their confirmation bias that they've made a smart decision.  A little dopamine is released, and they run and tell their friends.

Please show me where I mentioned crime in my posts and how that became a central theme of my ideas.  That's you attempted to portray me as a racist. And that makes you disgusting.

To help you, see the five or so posts above. The problem is the declining population.

See the second post quoting the mayor of Milwaukee, a city with a falling population will eventually die with a declining population. That is my concern. The population of Milwaukee and Chicago are declining, which is a big problem for an institution I care about ... MU.

---

So, while I did not say my motivation for this thread, I will say it now ... it was the budget cuts at Depaul, and I worried that this is as much about being in a large northern city as the specific management decision at Depaul ... and a potential leading indicator for MU.

---

And yes, your first sentence is 100% correct. Like everyone else, I come to a message board to discuss topics. Why exactly are you here? And why do you post replies?

And again, I do not appreciate you suggesting I'm a racist.

[Skatastrophy]

Rents are also a poor metric of the health of a city.

https://www.curbed.com/2023/01/nyc-real-estate-covid-more-apartments-higher-rent.html
New Yorkers Never Came ‘Flooding Back.’ Why Did Rents Go Up So Much?
Getting to the bottom of a COVID-era real estate mystery.

You found a guy that writes for teh entertainment section of NYMag. Also, in his own article, he called his point a "conspiracy theory."

I get that you have strong opinions, but you need to get better at finding sources to back them up.

How about Manhattan rentals months of supply, listing inventory, and new leases (source for the charts below: https://millersamuel.com/charts-category/manhattan/)



Interesting how the inventory tracks with the prices. Seems like things are starting to normalize



And home sales have recovered nicely in Manhattan as well, moving as quick as ever in spite of rate spikes



Also, regarding restaurants returning to business centers due to WFH, here's a much better source with much better data: https://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/reports/nyc-sectors/restaurant

Business centers will have to pivot. They already are in major metros, with those former business centers spiking in population. Funny enough, it's much easier to convert the ancient buildings into condos/lofts than it is to convert the newer construction. Commercial real estate folks will have to figure it out. I can't imagine what they're going to do with those nightmarish suburban 4-story office parks once everyone's leases are up. Nobody wanted to be in those in the first place.

[Uncle Rico]

You found a guy that writes for teh entertainment section of NYMag. Also, in his own article, he called his point a "conspiracy theory."

I get that you have strong opinions, but you need to get better at finding sources to back them up.

How about Manhattan rentals months of supply, listing inventory, and new leases (source for the charts below: https://millersamuel.com/charts-category/manhattan/)



Interesting how the inventory tracks with the prices. Seems like things are starting to normalize



And home sales have recovered nicely in Manhattan as well, moving as quick as ever in spite of rate spikes



Also, regarding restaurants returning to business centers due to WFH, here's a much better source with much better data: https://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/reports/nyc-sectors/restaurant

Business centers will have to pivot. They already are in major metros, with those former business centers spiking in population. Funny enough, it's much easier to convert the ancient buildings into condos/lofts than it is to convert the newer construction. Commercial real estate folks will have to figure it out. I can't imagine what they're going to do with those nightmarish suburban 4-story office parks once everyone's leases are up. Nobody wanted to be in those in the first place.

Chef’s kisses

[dgies9156]

Good post

But I remind everyone that every city has a hot trending neighborhood, and always will. Third Ward in Milwaukee, Fulton Market in Chicago, FiDi (Financial District) in NYC.

And it is a gigantic mistake to think that one hot neighborhood means all is well.

I'll say it again!

If you want to revive struggling urban neighborhoods, promote an active and vibrant GAY AND LESBIAN COMMUNITY.

Where gays and lesbians have been allowed to prosper, the city around them prospers as well. They bring talent -- lots of it -- along with creativity and an understanding of the possible that stretches expectations.

In San Francisco a few years ago, enough straights were buying around the Castro that the gays were afraid they would soon lose their community. The gays provided the seed to upgrade the community and sure enough, the straights soon followed. Enough that the gays felt they were being bought out.

The conservative Christians have it all wrong -- it's in their economic interest to foster cooperation with the Gays! The sooner they do, the better our cities will be. Maybe we might even have understanding!

[Not A Serious Person]

I'll say it again!

If you want to revive struggling urban neighborhoods, promote an active and vibrant GAY AND LESBIAN COMMUNITY.

Where gays and lesbians have been allowed to prosper, the city around them prospers as well. They bring talent -- lots of it -- along with creativity and an understanding of the possible that stretches expectations.

In San Francisco a few years ago, enough straights were buying around the Castro that the gays were afraid they would soon lose their community. The gays provided the seed to upgrade the community and sure enough, the straights soon followed. Enough that the gays felt they were being bought out.

The conservative Christians have it all wrong -- it's in their economic interest to foster cooperation with the Gays! The sooner they do, the better our cities will be. Maybe we might even have understanding!

This is based on an incorrect belief of who is leaving cities and why they are declining.

It is families that are leaving the city. And more African-American families than White familes.  African-American familes are terrible victims of crime (mainly black-on-black), and if they have the means, they leave. What is left is those that cannot leave. They are angry and desperate and the downward cycle continues.

Side note, where do many African-American families that leave large northern cities go?

https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-new-great-migration-is-bringing-black-americans-back-to-the-south/
A ‘New Great Migration’ is bringing Black Americans back to the South

Beginning early in the last century and continuing for decades, Black Americans took part in a “Great Migration” that saw millions move out of the South and into other parts of the country. But over the past 50 years, that historic event has reversed, as many returned to the South in a “New Great Migration.”

Now, new Census Bureau migration data released over the past year makes plain that this return movement is continuing, although with some dispersion to other parts of the country. This report builds on earlier migration analyses to incorporate new statistics from the Census Bureau’s 5-Year American Community Survey.

----

A vibrant Gay community will not get families to stay, especially African-Americans. Affordability, jobs, schools, and safety will get them to stay. Trendy restaurants and art galleries are not going to fix these problems.

[pbiflyer]

Good thing you never mention crime in your posts…..

[MU82]

The population of Milwaukee and Chicago are declining, which is a big problem for an institution I care about ... MU.

AGAIN, the population of the greater Chicago metro area is actually growing. Don’t you think Marquette gets students from Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park and Park Ridge?

[Not A Serious Person]

You found a guy that writes for teh entertainment section of NYMag. Also, in his own article, he called his point a "conspiracy theory."

I get that you have strong opinions, but you need to get better at finding sources to back them up.

How about Manhattan rentals months of supply, listing inventory, and new leases (source for the charts below: https://millersamuel.com/charts-category/manhattan/)



Interesting how the inventory tracks with the prices. Seems like things are starting to normalize



And home sales have recovered nicely in Manhattan as well, moving as quick as ever in spite of rate spikes



Also, regarding restaurants returning to business centers due to WFH, here's a much better source with much better data: https://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/reports/nyc-sectors/restaurant

Business centers will have to pivot. They already are in major metros, with those former business centers spiking in population. Funny enough, it's much easier to convert the ancient buildings into condos/lofts than it is to convert the newer construction. Commercial real estate folks will have to figure it out. I can't imagine what they're going to do with those nightmarish suburban 4-story office parks once everyone's leases are up. Nobody wanted to be in those in the first place.

You're assuming that rising rents are only a good thing. That is not necessarily true.

Also, rents are rising everywhere, and it is creating a burden. It prices out the middle class and creates stress in cities

This is the opposite of affordable housing.


The average American tenant is rent-burdened. Here’s what that means for the economy.
For the first time in over 20 years, the typical American spends 30 percent of their income on housing.
By Adam Barnes and Gianna Melillo | Feb. 21, 2023
https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/infrastructure/3866947-renters-paying-30-percent-of-income-for-housing-crisis/

[Not A Serious Person]

AGAIN, the population of the greater Chicago metro area is actually growing. Don’t you think Marquette gets students from Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park and Park Ridge?

Not anymore ... crossed over to negative in 2022 after many years of falling growth rates


https://www.ibjonline.com/2023/04/02/91-of-102-illinois-counties-lose-population-in-2022-rural-counties-at-a-faster-rate/