MUScoop
MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: Not A Serious Person on April 18, 2023, 06:09:54 PM
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Love to get your take here.
Brookings did a detailed analysis of the dire position of the population of big cities. The bottom has dropped out.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/big-cities-saw-historic-population-losses-while-suburban-growth-declined-during-the-pandemic/
(https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Figure-1-01.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1)
(https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Figure-2-01.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1)
And it is not just cities with bad weather. Even the cities with good weather are seeing growth rates fall hard but still positive.
(https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Figure-4-01.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1)
And it is not just the pandemic year. The trend started after the 2008 financial crisis. So, it has been years in the making, and the existing trend accelerated during the pandemic.
(https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FIGURE-5-01.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1)
And they are not merely moving to the suburbs. See the blue bars, still positive but falling.
(https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FIGURE-6-01.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1)
(https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/FIGURE-7-01-1.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1)
And the University of Toronto looked at cell phone activity and found some alarming data from last fall.
https://www.statista.com/chart/29722/cellphone-activity-in-north-american-downtowns/
Data collected by the University of Toronto School of Cities shows that as of the fall of 2022, the downtowns of many major population centers in the U.S. and Canada were still recording much less activity than before the pandemic. Los Angeles had gained back around two thirds of its former life (as measured by cellphone activity), but other downtowns - like in Chicago, Vancouver in British Columbia, Seattle and San Francisco - are now at most half as active as they had been before the pandemic. The lull also affects boomtowns of former years like Denver, Atlanta and Houston.
(https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/29722.jpeg)
And even the New York Times noted that a secular change is taking place
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/15/opinion/post-pandemic-cities-suburbs-future.html
Most of the nation’s major cities face a daunting future as middle-class taxpayers join an exodus to the suburbs, opting to work remotely as they exit downtowns marred by empty offices, vacant retail space and a deteriorating tax base.
The question facing large cities, especially the older cities in the North, is whether they can break what urban experts now call an urban doom loop. The evidence to date suggests that things are not improving much.
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This brings us to Milwaukee.
This long piece ran last month in the Journal Sentinel literally about the future of Milwaukee
Here's how Milwaukee can reach Mayor Cavalier Johnson's ambitious goal to grow to 1 million people
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2023/03/08/whats-path-for-milwaukee-to-reverse-population-decline-grow-again/69959649007/
Today, some cities in the south and southwest are seeing their populations soar. But more than a few proud American cities are shrinking, shedding thousands of residents. Milwaukee is one of them.
Mayor Cavalier Johnson hopes to reverse that trend. More than 100 years after Daniel Burnham’s exhortation, Johnson is making big plans of his own.
He wants Milwaukee to grow. A lot.
During his campaign for mayor, Johnson raised a few eyebrows when he talked about the city increasing its population to one million people, nearly twice its current size.
It is not just that Johnson wants Milwaukee to grow. He needs population and business growth to help relieve enormous pressure on the city’s long-term finances.
But you sense that Johnson’s moonshot for Milwaukee is about more than aspiring to grow; it is about inspiring a city to reimagine itself, to think differently about its future.
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Let me conclude with these three questions.
What is the future of big cities (over 250k)? Especially older big cities in northern climates?
If you are not optimistic, can you envision a scenario in which MU moves?
If Milwaukee sinks into a "doom loop" (term noted in the NY Times article above) does MU have an obligation to seriously consider moving?
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Fascinating question, to say the least.
I admit I left the Chicago area after living there for 44 years. Love the city and the region but had some serious issues that as I faced retirement, I felt a change was appropriate. That said, there's a couple things that have to be done to make Urban America grow again:
1) Education -- Fixing the education system is Job 1. If students can't read and write at grade level when they graduate, they're not going to be able to move on to college or sophisticated workplaces. They're stuck with no way out. Chicago, for example, spends twice the average per pupil as the state at large and the results are terrible. This is an area that can't be understated.
2) Crime -- Solve the education problem and you're on your way to solving the crime problem. Regardless, this must be dealt with in most major cities.
3) Investment -- Nothing makes a city hum like corporate headquarters. The merger and acquisition wave of the past 50 years has robbed cities of their core benefactors. Look at the number of corporate headquarters in Chicago when I arrived -- 1978 -- versus now. It's only getting worse. Without major corporate benefactors, there's less focus on building a cultural and social infrastructure. Milwaukee has Baird, NML and Harley Davidson, among others, and those are the firms that support the performing arts. Baird took a major stand for what became AmFam Park and it's there because the corporate headquarters firms stepped up.
4) Gay Community -- In every city I've ever lived in, urban renewal has been far less effective than an active and vibrant gay community. Chicago's Boystown, Nashville's East Side (Lockland Springs), San Francisco's Mission District all owe their present cache to the efforts of the gay and/or lesbian communities. The religious right needs to understand that if they want to reinvigorate their communities, they need to be welcoming and even encouraging to gay and lesbian people. They know how to rehab and they certainly know how to party!
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I mean where would Marquette move? And how would that move make it more attractive to students?
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It's impossible to find housing at a reasonable price in most major metros these days. Low supply leading to significantly higher rents in Chicago and NYC. What a difference a year makes. It'll be interesting what data from this year looks like, it seems that all of your sources are from 2021 and 2022.
Your NYT quote is from an editorial, btw.
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If folks are leaving cities, and not going to suburbs, then they're all moving to rural locations?
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I mean where would Marquette move? And how would that move make it more attractive to students?
I agree it is something that is not easy.
The most likely way to MU moving is by opening a second campus and slowly shifting resources to that campus.
That said, ChatGPT gives me some examples. Spot checks of some (but not all) on Wiki confirm
University that opened a second campus in the US and are shifting major resources to that campus.
ASU - Downtown Phoenix
Northeastern - Charlotte
Texas A&M - San Antonio
Virginia Tech - Northern Virginia
Cornell - NYC
Purdue - Indianapolis
Drexel - Sacramento
Schools moving their campus over the last 80 years,
University of Tulsa, Central Florida, Rice, Elon, SMU, Trinity, Seton Hall, and Colorado College
(Wiki doubling-checking many of these confirms it)
Schools struggling with enrollment because they are in areas of declining population
Depaul, Akron, Chicago State, Wayne State, Eastern Michigan, Louisana Monroe, Stevens Point, and Western and Southern Illinois.
Schools that have closed in recent years are all in areas with fast-declining populations
Stritch (coming), St Joe Indiana, Burlington College (VT), and College of New Rochelle.
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Again, this is not happening in at least a decade. But suppose Milwaukee goes the way of St. Louis, Detroit, or even the way Chicago is now going. How does the University thrive if the area around it and the biggest pool of students (Chicagoland) is effectively dying?
So, it comes down to how you answer the first question, what is the future of big cities in northern climates?
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If folks are leaving cities, and not going to suburbs, then they're all moving to rural locations?
Cities of less than 250k ... which some might define as rural
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Chicago metro area population actually has been growing.
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Chicago metro area population actually has been growing.
Metro, and downtown specifically.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/chicago-s-downtown-now-has-more-residents-than-before-pandemic
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Cities of less than 250k ... which some might define as rural
I suppose that makes sense with cost of living being pretty ridiculous in most large cities. Combine that with crumbling infrastructure
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It's impossible to find housing at a reasonable price in most major metros these days. Low supply leading to significantly higher rents in Chicago and NYC. What a difference a year makes. It'll be interesting what data from this year looks like, it seems that all of your sources are from 2021 and 2022.
Your NYT quote is from an editorial, btw.
The data from cell phone coverage and office usage (Kastle systems) is current into Q1 2023 and shows no improvement.
Are you arguing this trend is over? Because if it is not, what are the long-term prospects for MU?
https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/milwaukee-wi-population
Milwaukee
1960 = 741.3k
1970 = 717.4k
1980 = 636.3k
1990 = 628.1k
2000 = 597k
2010 = 594.8k
2020 = 576.3k
2023 (est) = 555.6k
2029 (est) = 516.5k
And the biggest pool of students for MU, Chicago, is even worse.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/chicago-il-population
1960 = 3.6M
1970 = 3.4m
1980 = 3m
1990 = 2.8m
2000 = 2.9m
2010 = 2.7m
2020 = 2.7m
2023 (est) = 2.6m
2029 (est) = 2.3m
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The data from cell phone coverage and office usage (Kastle systems) is current into Q1 2023 and shows no improvement.
Are you arguing this trend is over? Because if it is not, what are the long-term prospects for MU?
https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/milwaukee-wi-population
Milwaukee
1960 = 741.3k
1970 = 717.4k
1980 = 636.3k
1990 = 628.1k
2000 = 597k
2010 = 594.8k
2020 = 576.3k
2023 (est) = 555.6k
2029 (est) = 516.5k
And the biggest pool of students for MU, Chicago, is even worse.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/chicago-il-population
1960 = 3.6M
1970 = 3.4m
1980 = 3m
1990 = 2.8m
2000 = 2.9m
2010 = 2.7m
2020 = 2.7m
2023 (est) = 2.6m
2029 (est) = 2.3m
Ask the people in charge of the university what their plans are
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Cities of less than 250k ... which some might define as rural
Cities that are less than 250k are not rural.
If some define it that way they aren’t observing those cities.
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How 'bout da hell hole aka Chicago, hey?
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Metro, and downtown specifically.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/chicago-s-downtown-now-has-more-residents-than-before-pandemic
Metro is experiencing small positive growth but is far behind the national population growth rate. The metro area is losing ground to the rest of the country.
Downtown is not households with kids or a very small number of households with kids. This does not benefit a university seeking competitive applications.
Consider this ... the Universities with the largest number of applications. Do you see a correlation between population and applications?
https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/the-short-list-college/articles/colleges-that-received-the-most-applications
University of California—Los Angeles 108,877
University of California—San Diego 100,073
University of California—Irvine 97,942
University of California—Santa Barbara 90,963
University of California—Berkeley 88,076
New York University 80,210
University of California—Davis 76,225
Pennsylvania State University—University Park 73,861
California State University—Long Beach 67,402
University of Michigan—Ann Arbor 65,021
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Cardinal Stritch closing has nothing to do with the fact they are in Milwaukee.
And again Heisey, where do they move?
One school that did move was Carthage College, which was originally in rural Carthage, IL. They moved to their present site in 1964 after nearly 100 years in operation.
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Cardinal Stritch closing has nothing to do with the fact they are in Milwaukee.
And again Heisey, where do they move?
One school that did move was Carthage College, which was originally in rural Carthage, IL. They moved to their present site in 1964 after nearly 100 years in operation.
If Stritch was in a city with faster growth, or any growth for that fact, would it be in the same position? Most colleges and universities that close have a common denominator, they are in an area of rapid depopulation.
So let me ask the question bluntly ... are big Midwestern cities like Milwaukee and Chicago going to die like Detroit and St Louis? If your answer is yes, what should MU do in response to this?
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If Stritch was in a city with faster growth, or any growth for that fact, would it be in the same position? Most colleges and universities that close have a common denominator, they are in an area of rapid depopulation.
So let me ask the question bluntly ... are big Midwestern cities like Milwaukee and Chicago going to die like Detroit and St Louis? If your answer is yes, what should MU do in response to this?
Ask university officials. They’ll have a better answer than scoop
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Metro is experiencing small positive growth but is far behind the national population growth rate. The metro area is losing ground to the rest of the country.
Downtown is not households with kids or a very small number of households with kids. This does not benefit a university seeking competitive applications.
Your OP is about how downtowns are shrinking, and you use year old data to prove your point. In reality, major city's downtowns have grown past pre-pandemic levels as folks rush back to city centers to be near to restaurants, the arts, and culture.
Milwaukee declining in population for decades and university average applications per year? Idk man. Just pointing out that your OP is incorrect because you're using old data, and your whole point is built off of that.
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How 'bout da hell hole aka Chicago, hey?
Chicago is awesome. Love going there. Same with NYC
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Chicago is awesome. Love going there. Same with NYC
How 'bout fookin' Cudahy, den, hey?
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Ask the people in charge of the university what their plans are
As a thought experiment, what would be your reaction to MU opening a second campus in Nashville, Charlotte, or Orlando? And then, over time, more and more resources are moved from Milwaukee to that campus.
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As a thought experiment, what would be your reaction to MU opening a second campus in Nashville, Charlotte, or Orlando? And then, over time, more and more resources are moved from Milwaukee to that campus.
I’ll be dead
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If Stritch was in a city with faster growth, or any growth for that fact, would it be in the same position? Most colleges and universities that close have a common denominator, they are in an area of rapid depopulation.
So let me ask the question bluntly ... are big Midwestern cities like Milwaukee and Chicago going to die like Detroit and St Louis? If your answer is yes, what should MU do in response to this?
Stitch is in one of the wealthiest parts of the city. Again, their location had nothing to do with why they closed.
And again, I will ask a THIRD time. Where should MU move?
I think they are fine where they are now. And that location will serve them well into the future.
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Your OP is about how downtowns are shrinking, and you use year old data to prove your point. In reality, major city's downtowns have grown past pre-pandemic levels as folks rush back to city centers to be near to restaurants, the arts, and culture.
Milwaukee declining in population for decades and university average applications per year? Idk man. Just pointing out that your OP is incorrect because you're using old data, and your whole point is built off of that.
Old data? I used the latest data available.
I provided a story from March 2023 from both the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and NY Times(by Thomas Edsell) that says exactly the opposite of what you contend.
And if you want more data, the Univerity of Toronto has an entire project on this subject, with the most up-to-date data available. They even created downtown recovery indices and it is not a pretty picture.
https://downtownrecovery.com/index.html
So why don't you provide data that support your contention that big northern cities are not seeing an alarming population decline?
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Stitch is in one of the wealthiest parts of the city. Again, their location had nothing to do with why they closed.
And again, I will ask a THIRD time. Where should MU move?
I think they are fine where they are now. And that location will serve them well into the future.
If the northern cities continue their alarming depopulation, should MU consider reacting to it, such as moving? And if it does, it is a decade-type of project. (that said, I think Depaul is much closer to this decision point than MU).
Washington University in St. Louis is in a town that has lost more than half its population (actually, by some measures, St Louis' population decline is equal to Detriot) and thrives in an area that is not. It did that because it is perceived as a "national university" that transcends St. Louis.
So, if you want to tell me MU is a national university that transcends the situation in Milwaukee, that would be a good argument.
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ArchMan will be here soon to defend st louie.
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First of all, Marquette isn't moving. Ever.
Second, Marquette's mission is to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and the Midwest first. Marquette's commitment to the inner city is an essential part of the Jesuit mission of Men and Women for Others. The notion of Marquette on some leafy green campus in Mequon or Cudahy is theoretically appealing to suburbanites but not in keeping with who we are.
Third, if Marquette opens a campus in Nashville, I'll literally die! One of the appeals to Marquette way back when was they were NOT Nashville and that Milwaukee was a different world than Nashville. Besides, you really expect to compete for students in Nashville? A Jesuit Catholic university there is OUT OF ITS ELEMENT!!!!!
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Old data? I used the latest data available.
I provided a story from March 2023 from both the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and NY Times(by Thomas Edsell) that says exactly the opposite of what you contend.
And if you want more data, the Univerity of Toronto has an entire project on this subject, with the most up-to-date data available. They even created downtown recovery indices and it is not a pretty picture.
https://downtownrecovery.com/index.html
So why don't you provide data that support your contention that big northern cities are not seeing an alarming population decline?
Like I said before, the NYT article is an editorial. That's not valuable
Downtown Recovery is data from 2022 at the most recent. Like I said, old data.
The JSOnline article about Milwaukee has nothing to do with major downtown population recovery nationwide.
I linked an article above from 2023, which you responded to already. Here it is again, with a couple more:
Chicago - more people downtown than prepandemic - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/chicago-s-downtown-now-has-more-residents-than-before-pandemic
Chicago Loop fastest growing neighborhood in the US - https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/chicagos-loop-is-fastest-growing-downtown/
Downtown MSP - Continuing to grow every year - https://www.minnpost.com/twin-cities-business/2023/02/downtown-minneapolis-population-growth-slowed-in-2022/
Your data is old, just sayin. There's a reason that apartment supply is so low and prices are so high in major metros.
I think you're extrapolating a Milwaukee problem into a nationwide problem.
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Like I said before, the NYT article is an editorial. That's not valuable
Downtown Recovery is data from 2022 at the most recent. Like I said, old data.
The JSOnline article about Milwaukee has nothing to do with major downtown population recovery nationwide.
I linked an article above from 2023, which you responded to already. Here it is again, with a couple more:
Chicago - more people downtown than prepandemic - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/chicago-s-downtown-now-has-more-residents-than-before-pandemic
Chicago Loop fastest growing neighborhood in the US - https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/chicagos-loop-is-fastest-growing-downtown/
Downtown MSP - Continuing to grow every year - https://www.minnpost.com/twin-cities-business/2023/02/downtown-minneapolis-population-growth-slowed-in-2022/
Your data is old, just sayin. There's a reason that apartment supply is so low and prices are so high in major metros.
I think you're extrapolating a Milwaukee problem into a nationwide problem.
2022 data is old? It's April 2023.
I get it. Everyone has to pile on heisey, bit this line is just arguing to argue. Don't become the Archman of Chicago.
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Like I said before, the NYT article is an editorial. That's not valuable
Downtown Recovery is data from 2022 at the most recent. Like I said, old data.
The JSOnline article about Milwaukee has nothing to do with major downtown population recovery nationwide.
I linked an article above from 2023, which you responded to already. Here it is again, with a couple more:
Chicago - more people downtown than prepandemic - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/chicago-s-downtown-now-has-more-residents-than-before-pandemic
Chicago Loop fastest growing neighborhood in the US - https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/chicagos-loop-is-fastest-growing-downtown/
Downtown MSP - Continuing to grow every year - https://www.minnpost.com/twin-cities-business/2023/02/downtown-minneapolis-population-growth-slowed-in-2022/
Your data is old, just sayin. There's a reason that apartment supply is so low and prices are so high in major metros.
I think you're extrapolating a Milwaukee problem into a nationwide problem.
Chicago is 2.4 million. The Loop has a residential population of 46,000, or 1.9% of Chicago's total population. It is up 4,000 since 2020, making it a fast-growing neighborhood. And hardly any of these new 4,000 households have high school-aged kids considering a university.
MSP, the downtown core, has a population of 56,748, in a city of 425,000, or 13% of the total MSP population. It increased by 1.2% in the last year .... or a whole 681 people.
These are not serious rebuttals.
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2022 data is old? It's April 2023.
I get it. Everyone has to pile on heisey, bit this line is just arguing to argue. Don't become the Archman of Chicago.
Thank you
I'm trying hard to have a serious argument, as it is a serious subject. Please try and do the same.
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Chicago is 2.4 million. The Loop has a residential population of 46,000, or 1.9% of Chicago's total population. It is up 4,000 since 2020, making it a fast-growing neighborhood. And hardly any of these new 4,000 households have high school-aged kids considering a university.
MSP, the downtown core, has a population of 56,748, in a city of 425,000, or 13% of the total MSP population. It increased by 1.2% in the last year .... or a whole 681 people.
These are not serious rebuttals.
Marquette isn’t going anywhere
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First of all, Marquette isn't moving. Ever.
Second, Marquette's mission is to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and the Midwest first. Marquette's commitment to the inner city is an essential part of the Jesuit mission of Men and Women for Others. The notion of Marquette on some leafy green campus in Mequon or Cudahy is theoretically appealing to suburbanites but not in keeping with who we are.
Third, if Marquette opens a campus in Nashville, I'll literally die! One of the appeals to Marquette way back when was they were NOT Nashville and that Milwaukee was a different world than Nashville. Besides, you really expect to compete for students in Nashville? A Jesuit Catholic university there is OUT OF ITS ELEMENT!!!!!
Fair enough. I completely understand your point of view, and you are not wrong.
But what happens if the depopulation in Chicago/Milwaukee reaches the point that Depaul is now seeing? Then MU has to start going backward. And once you start going backward, it becomes a "doom loop."
So, to revise the question for you. Do you fear that MU has to think about managing a long-term decline? Or can it transcend the population growth of its area (Chicago/Milwaukee)
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2022 data is old? It's April 2023.
I get it. Everyone has to pile on heisey, bit this line is just arguing to argue. Don't become the Archman of Chicago.
Yes, data about pandemic recovery of downtowns from 6 months ago is old. There was a black swan event and, again, there's a reason that apartments are hard to find and historically expensive in major metro areas.
Chicago is 2.4 million. The Loop has a residential population of 46,000, or 1.9% of Chicago's total population. It is up 4,000 since 2020, making it a fast-growing neighborhood. And hardly any of these new 4,000 households have high school-aged kids considering a university.
MSP, the downtown core, has a population of 56,748, in a city of 425,000, or 13% of the total MSP population. It increased by 1.2% in the last year .... or a whole 681 people.
These are not serious rebuttals.
You're the one that said downtowns repeatedly. Would you like to move your goalposts?
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Yes, data about pandemic recovery of downtowns from 6 months ago is old. There was a black swan event and, again, there's a reason that apartments are hard to find and historically expensive in major metro areas.
Rents in Chicago are down in the last year.
https://www.renthop.com/average-rent-in/chicago-il
Chicago is more than a handful of apartment buildings in Fulton Market.
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I just hope Marquette burns the buildings to the ground on the way out so the neighborhood can’t turn them into whore and trap houses.
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How 'bout da hell hole aka Chicago, hey?
What about Chicago?
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I agree it is something that is not easy.
The most likely way to MU moving is by opening a second campus and slowly shifting resources to that campus.
That said, ChatGPT gives me some examples. Spot checks of some (but not all) on Wiki confirm
University that opened a second campus in the US and are shifting major resources to that campus.
ASU - Downtown Phoenix
Northeastern - Charlotte
Texas A&M - San Antonio
Virginia Tech - Northern Virginia
Cornell - NYC
Purdue - Indianapolis
Drexel - Sacramento
Schools moving their campus over the last 80 years,
University of Tulsa, Central Florida, Rice, Elon, SMU, Trinity, Seton Hall, and Colorado College
(Wiki doubling-checking many of these confirms it)
Schools struggling with enrollment because they are in areas of declining population
Depaul, Akron, Chicago State, Wayne State, Eastern Michigan, Louisana Monroe, Stevens Point, and Western and Southern Illinois.
Schools that have closed in recent years are all in areas with fast-declining populations
Stritch (coming), St Joe Indiana, Burlington College (VT), and College of New Rochelle.
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Again, this is not happening in at least a decade. But suppose Milwaukee goes the way of St. Louis, Detroit, or even the way Chicago is now going. How does the University thrive if the area around it and the biggest pool of students (Chicagoland) is effectively dying?
So, it comes down to how you answer the first question, what is the future of big cities in northern climates?
The above is why you should not use ChatGPT as a resource, and apparently, you can't wiki it either. Didn't check them all, but:
Drexel's satellite campus in Sacramento closed in 2015. It failed, because Drexel is known in Philly...not Sacramento.
Cornell always had a footprint in NYC, that is where their medical school is, and they didn't really create a satellite campus. They created Cornell "Tech" which was a way to leverage technology access in the city in conjunction with their medical school.
Also, Rice has always been in Houston. Elon has never moved. SMU has always been in Dallas, and Seton Hall moved to South Orange New Jersey shortly after its founding back in the 1800's.
So...most of your post is inaccurate.
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Cardinal Stritch closing has nothing to do with the fact they are in Milwaukee.
And again Heisey, where do they move?
One school that did move was Carthage College, which was originally in rural Carthage, IL. They moved to their present site in 1964 after nearly 100 years in operation.
Strich isn't in Milwaukee, even though they may utilize a Milwaukee mailing address.
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Rents in Chicago are down in the last year.
https://www.renthop.com/average-rent-in/chicago-il
Chicago is more than a handful of apartment buildings in Fulton Market.
Again, the population of the Chicago metro area actually has been growing.
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Fair enough. I completely understand your point of view, and you are not wrong.
But what happens if the depopulation in Chicago/Milwaukee reaches the point that Depaul is now seeing? Then MU has to start going backward. And once you start going backward, it becomes a "doom loop."
So, to revise the question for you. Do you fear that MU has to think about managing a long-term decline? Or can it transcend the population growth of its area (Chicago/Milwaukee)
We've had this discussion before about Marquette's student future. You have choices -- take a bigger slice of a smaller pie or find a bigger pie.
A Jesuit Catholic University will have trouble being successful in states of the south, where the population either is Protestant or not religious. Unless the basketball team suddenly becomes a 1970s Part 2, nobody outside the Midwest and East knows us.
So the answer is bigger slice of a smaller pie.
To those of you arguing about Chicago's miniscule growth rate -- do you really think that's going to continue with Brandon Johnson as Mayor? No chance!
You tossed Lori Lightfoot for ---- this?
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The above is why you should not use ChatGPT as a resource, and apparently, you can't wiki it either. Didn't check them all, but:
Drexel's satellite campus in Sacramento closed in 2015. It failed, because Drexel is known in Philly...not Sacramento.
Cornell always had a footprint in NYC, that is where their medical school is, and they didn't really create a satellite campus. They created Cornell "Tech" which was a way to leverage technology access in the city in conjunction with their medical school.
Also, Rice has always been in Houston. Elon has never moved. SMU has always been in Dallas, and Seton Hall moved to South Orange New Jersey shortly after its founding back in the 1800's.
So...most of your post is inaccurate.
I'll add that TAMU doesn't have a second campus in San Antonio. TAMUSA is a separate institution that's part of the TAMU system. That would be like saying UW Madison has a second campus in Parkside
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I'll go on record as saying that Marquette is never moving. They'd go fully online before they'd move their main campus
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To those of you arguing about Chicago's miniscule growth rate -- do you really think that's going to continue with Brandon Johnson as Mayor? No chance!
I do not live in Chicago, have not lived there for 13 years, and am highly unlikely to move back. I didn't leave because of the mayor at the time, I have no opinion of the most recent mayor, and I have no opinion about the new mayor. I no longer follow Chicago politics. My son and his family live in Deerfield, so we do visit the northern burbs several times a year.
I am merely stating a fact. A couple of posters keep saying the Chicago metro area is losing population. All I'm doing is looking at the data, which reveals that the Chicago metro area actually has been growing.
Now, others might do what you're doing -- speculate that the population will decrease because of the city's new mayor or whatever factor one might choose to name. But the fact is that the metro area's population has been slowly increasing.
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I do not live in Chicago, have not lived there for 13 years, and am highly unlikely to move back. I didn't leave because of the mayor at the time, I have no opinion of the most recent mayor, and I have no opinion about the new mayor. I no longer follow Chicago politics. My son and his family live in Deerfield, so we do visit the northern burbs several times a year.
I am merely stating a fact. A couple of posters keep saying the Chicago metro area is losing population. All I'm doing is looking at the data, which reveals that the Chicago metro area actually has been growing.
Now, others might do what you're doing -- speculate that the population will decrease because of the city's new mayor or whatever factor one might choose to name. But the fact is that the metro area's population has been slowly increasing.
Chicago Metro's population growth is less than the national average. So yes, more people, but losing ground yearly to the rest of the country.
And eventually, the appeal to living next to, but not in Chicago will diminish as the city itself becomes less and less attractive.
And .. there is this from three weeks ago
https://www.illinoispolicy.org/91-of-102-illinois-counties-lose-population-in-2022/
91 OF 102 ILLINOIS COUNTIES LOSE POPULATION IN 2022
Illinois’ population decline reached record-breaking levels in 2022 as the state’s population dropped by 104,437 residents from from July 2021-July 2022.
The losses were widespread, new data shows. There were 91 of Illinois’ 102 counties that lost population during that year, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released March 30.
The largest decline in numeric terms came from the state’s most populous counties. Cook County lost 68,314, DuPage County lost 5,547, Lake County lost 3,010, St. Clair County lost 2,351 and Kane County lost 2,001. The decline in Cook County was the second-most in the nation, behind only Los Angeles County.
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The above is why you should not use ChatGPT as a resource, and apparently, you can't wiki it either. Didn't check them all, but:
Drexel's satellite campus in Sacramento closed in 2015. It failed, because Drexel is known in Philly...not Sacramento.
Cornell always had a footprint in NYC, that is where their medical school is, and they didn't really create a satellite campus. They created Cornell "Tech" which was a way to leverage technology access in the city in conjunction with their medical school.
Also, Rice has always been in Houston. Elon has never moved. SMU has always been in Dallas, and Seton Hall moved to South Orange New Jersey shortly after its founding back in the 1800's.
So...most of your post is inaccurate.
Thanks for correcting
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We've had this discussion before about Marquette's student future. You have choices -- take a bigger slice of a smaller pie or find a bigger pie.
A Jesuit Catholic University will have trouble being successful in states of the south, where the population either is Protestant or not religious. Unless the basketball team suddenly becomes a 1970s Part 2, nobody outside the Midwest and East knows us.
So the answer is bigger slice of a smaller pie.
To those of you arguing about Chicago's miniscule growth rate -- do you really think that's going to continue with Brandon Johnson as Mayor? No chance!
You tossed Lori Lightfoot for ---- this?
Good post
This is the heart of the issue for MU, like most universities in northern cities, will have to manage through a population base it depends on that is declining.
If it mismanages it, it will go through painful budget cuts (see Depaul) and hard choices like closing programs or entire schools.
Contrast this to southern schools that can make many mistakes and get bailed out because of their growing populations. Northern schools have to be more or less perfect.
Regarding the religious angle. This is tricky. Yes, the country is becoming less religious. But the non-religious are having fewer kids.
1.6 per for non-religious women (less than the replacement rate of 2.1) versus 2.5 for religious women (above the replacement rate)
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/
So, in the long run, what does going secular get you? Remember, it is about getting kids to apply.
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Chicago Metro's population growth is less than the national average. So yes, more people, but losing ground yearly to the rest of the country.
And eventually, the appeal to living next to, but not in Chicago will diminish as the city itself becomes less and less attractive.
And .. there is this from three weeks ago
https://www.illinoispolicy.org/91-of-102-illinois-counties-lose-population-in-2022/
91 OF 102 ILLINOIS COUNTIES LOSE POPULATION IN 2022
Illinois’ population decline reached record-breaking levels in 2022 as the state’s population dropped by 104,437 residents from from July 2021-July 2022.
The losses were widespread, new data shows. There were 91 of Illinois’ 102 counties that lost population during that year, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released March 30.
The largest decline in numeric terms came from the state’s most populous counties. Cook County lost 68,314, DuPage County lost 5,547, Lake County lost 3,010, St. Clair County lost 2,351 and Kane County lost 2,001. The decline in Cook County was the second-most in the nation, behind only Los Angeles County.
Even if the data is correct, Illinois Policy is not cite worthy.
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First of all, Marquette isn't moving. Ever.
Second, Marquette's mission is to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and the Midwest first. Marquette's commitment to the inner city is an essential part of the Jesuit mission of Men and Women for Others. The notion of Marquette on some leafy green campus in Mequon or Cudahy is theoretically appealing to suburbanites but not in keeping with who we are.
Third, if Marquette opens a campus in Nashville, I'll literally die! One of the appeals to Marquette way back when was they were NOT Nashville and that Milwaukee was a different world than Nashville. Besides, you really expect to compete for students in Nashville? A Jesuit Catholic university there is OUT OF ITS ELEMENT!!!!!
Not to mention it is also one of Milwaukee's largest employers.
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Even if the data is correct, Illinois Policy is not cite worthy.
That's idiotic, even from you.
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The above is why you should not use ChatGPT as a resource, and apparently, you can't wiki it either. Didn't check them all, but:
Drexel's satellite campus in Sacramento closed in 2015. It failed, because Drexel is known in Philly...not Sacramento.
This thread is galactically stupid on many levels, but trying to back up data with ChatGPT, a source that is known to lie and make up information at times, just takes it to the next level. I thought talking Marquette moving to Orlando or Nashville was dumb, but using that as supporting evidence is even worse.
Oh well...at least reading through this is humorous.
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This thread is galactically stupid on many levels, but trying to back up data with ChatGPT, a source that is known to lie and make up information at times, just takes it to the next level. I thought talking Marquette moving to Orlando or Nashville was dumb, but using that as supporting evidence is even worse.
Oh well...at least reading through this is humorous.
C'mon the obvious new location for Marquette in in the UP
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So, to revise the question for you. Do you fear that MU has to think about managing a long-term decline? Or can it transcend the population growth of its area (Chicago/Milwaukee)
Marquette, and every other school in the midwest, has already started to think about the demographic decline in the next decade.
Marquette will close before it leaves Milwaukee.
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C'mon the obvious new location for Marquette in in the UP
I thought it was already there?
At least that's what people have been telling me for 35 years that they saw my school on the Weather Channel.
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Rents in Chicago are down in the last year.
https://www.renthop.com/average-rent-in/chicago-il
Chicago is more than a handful of apartment buildings in Fulton Market.
Rents in many places are slowing or falling because they rocketed up the previous two years at unsustainable levels.
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This thread is galactically stupid on many levels, but trying to back up data with ChatGPT, a source that is known to lie and make up information at times, just takes it to the next level. I thought talking Marquette moving to Orlando or Nashville was dumb, but using that as supporting evidence is even worse.
Oh well...at least reading through this is humorous.
What's stupid about asking what MU does in an area with a declining population?
Ok, they will never move. That was an idea. What is next, budget cuts, program closures, and school closures?
Or do you believe MU can transcend the areas failing and thrive despite it like Washington University in St. Louis has thrived despite that city dying?
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Marquette, and every other school in the midwest, has already started to think about the demographic decline in the next decade.
Marquette will close before it leaves Milwaukee.
And how do they plan on handling it? What do you think they should do?
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Cities will be fine. They will continue to be the hubs of culture and commerce, attracting the young dreamers. Who will one day get old and write and quote articles pondering the future of cities.
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This thread is galactically stupid on many levels, but trying to back up data with ChatGPT, a source that is known to lie and make up information at times, just takes it to the next level. I thought talking Marquette moving to Orlando or Nashville was dumb, but using that as supporting evidence is even worse.
Oh well...at least reading through this is humorous.
Negative. It makes up information exclusively. It is designed to produce linked language that sounds correct by predicting based on a large data set what words are statistically most likely to go together in what order in response to a prompt. It is not designed to produce accuracy, but to produce something that sounds like accuracy. Reporting on what it is (oh no it's AI!) and what it can do (look out Google, it's going to replace search!) have done a huge disservice to people's understanding of what LLMs are, what they are capable of, and how they work.
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Cities will be fine. They will continue to be the hubs of culture and commerce, attracting the young dreamers. Who will one day get old and write and quote articles pondering the future of cities.
Except that is no longer happening in northern cities. Populations are declining. Companies are leaving, and cultural activities are diminishing.
Young dreams are now largely white privileged kids around the third ward. That cannot support the entire city. It is a fun period before they leave and get serious about life.
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Cities will be fine. They will continue to be the hubs of culture and commerce, attracting the young dreamers. Who will one day get old and write and quote articles pondering the future of cities.
🎶 A woman came up to me and said
"I'd like to poison your mind
With wrong ideas that appeal to you
Though I am not unkind"
She looked at me, I looked at something
Written across her scalp
And these are the words that it faintly said
As I tried to call for help
There's only one thing that I know how to do well
And I've often been told that you only can do
What you know how to do well
And that's be you,
Be what you're like,
Be like yourself,
And so I'm having a wonderful time
But I'd rather be whistling in the dark
Whistling in the dark
Whistling in the dark
Whistling in the dark
Whistling in the dark
Whistling in the dark
There's only one thing that I like
And that is whistling in the dark 🎶
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Back to our regularly scheduled program ... ;D
Urban Midwestern cities are in decline for two reasons: Air conditioning and logistics.
A little background:
Air Conditioning -- As a very young youngster, I lived in Nashville. Summers there were HOT HOT HOT. Until 1962, we never had air conditioning. It was relatively rare for any home to have air conditioning, which became widely available in the 1950s. Before air conditioning, Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Charlotte, Memphis and Nashville all were relatively small cities. We built a home in 1964 that had central air conditioning. It was about that time that new houses all had it -- and the south rose again!
Logistics -- Most of the large Midwestern and Eastern Cities began as transportation hubs. Chicago, for example, was an absolutely wonderful place to build a railroad. There were relatively few impediments (rivers, mountains, land below sea level) to constrain construction of railroads, classification yards, depots and repair facilities. The flatness of the "Water Level Route" between New York and Chicago was a large reason why the NYC made cities like Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago (along with access to water and natural resources).
Now fast forward to the 1960s. The development of the interstate highway system changed the way goods were moved. What had gone by rail now could be moved more quickly by truck. Less-than-carload shipments by rail almost ceased and trains were restricted to moving bulk goods. The interstate system also allowed more effective placement of manufacturing plants in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas and yes, even the evil empire of Florida. Think about the reason the Penn Central went bankrupt -- it's the same reason why Midwestern and Northeastern cities are shrinking -- no industry and no competitive advantages against newer locales. Companies moved out as business and industry had far more options than the traditional Water Level Route and the parallel Pennsylvania Railroad line.
When the jobs moved, those that could, did!
One final thought: imagine US Steel wanted to build a new steel plant to effectively replace South Works. Now imagine for some strange reason US Steel wanted the plant in Chicago! Assuming there was a plot of land large enough on which to build the plant, the process of permitting and constructing would be a nightmare. NIMBYs and cultural warriors would be screaming about locating the plant in Chicago, instead of say Winnetka or Kenilworth. Environmental warriors would be screaming about the carbon footprint of the plant. The city would have its hands out and the alderwoman from the ward in which the plant was located would somehow want US Steel to find executive jobs for every constituent who voted for her in the last election.
If you don't believe me -- and I know many of you won't -- look at the difficulty the Norfolk Southern has had in expanding its rail yard in the Englewood neighborhood of Chicago. If that was Tennessee or North Carolina, the project would have been completed a half decade ago!
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Except that is no longer happening in northern cities. Populations are declining. Companies are leaving, and cultural activities are diminishing.
Young dreams are now largely white privileged kids around the third ward. That cannot support the entire city. It is a fun period before they leave and get serious about life.
And in a generation, half of Florida will be underwater Arizona and Texas will be uninhabitable. There are always headwinds and challenges. Hopefully, the younger generations, having been left a sh!t sandwich by their elders, actually work the problem instead of whining and kicking the can down the road.
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And how do they plan on handling it? What do you think they should do?
I've answered this multiple times in multiple topics.
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And in a generation, half of Florida will be underwater.
You really believe this?
Really?
Half of Florida already is underwater -- and not the good kind that is swampy and has lots of alligators. Back during the last ice age, the Florida peninsula was twice its current size. But as the ice caps melted, the a good hunk of the old peninsula was absorbed. That may happen further in the future but it's going to take a whole lot longer than any of us have in lifespan.
Oh and a good hunk of the east coast will be underwater too!
I'm betting against it! I live on a barrier island off the coast of Florida just north of Vero Beach.
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I am more concerned about it than I am the future of cities in the upper midwest.
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Back to our regularly scheduled program ... ;D
Urban Midwestern cities are in decline for two reasons: Air conditioning and logistics.
A little background:
Air Conditioning -- As a very young youngster, I lived in Nashville. Summers there were HOT HOT HOT. Until 1962, we never had air conditioning. It was relatively rare for any home to have air conditioning, which became widely available in the 1950s. Before air conditioning, Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Charlotte, Memphis and Nashville all were relatively small cities. We built a home in 1964 that had central air conditioning. It was about that time that new houses all had it -- and the south rose again!
Logistics -- Most of the large Midwestern and Eastern Cities began as transportation hubs. Chicago, for example, was an absolutely wonderful place to build a railroad. There were relatively few impediments (rivers, mountains, land below sea level) to constrain construction of railroads, classification yards, depots and repair facilities. The flatness of the "Water Level Route" between New York and Chicago was a large reason why the NYC made cities like Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago (along with access to water and natural resources).
Now fast forward to the 1960s. The development of the interstate highway system changed the way goods were moved. What had gone by rail now could be moved more quickly by truck. Less-than-carload shipments by rail almost ceased and trains were restricted to moving bulk goods. The interstate system also allowed more effective placement of manufacturing plants in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas and yes, even the evil empire of Florida. Think about the reason the Penn Central went bankrupt -- it's the same reason why Midwestern and Northeastern cities are shrinking -- no industry and no competitive advantages against newer locales. Companies moved out as business and industry had far more options than the traditional Water Level Route and the parallel Pennsylvania Railroad line.
When the jobs moved, those that could, did!
One final thought: imagine US Steel wanted to build a new steel plant to effectively replace South Works. Now imagine for some strange reason US Steel wanted the plant in Chicago! Assuming there was a plot of land large enough on which to build the plant, the process of permitting and constructing would be a nightmare. NIMBYs and cultural warriors would be screaming about locating the plant in Chicago, instead of say Winnetka or Kenilworth. Environmental warriors would be screaming about the carbon footprint of the plant. The city would have its hands out and the alderwoman from the ward in which the plant was located would somehow want US Steel to find executive jobs for every constituent who voted for her in the last election.
If you don't believe me -- and I know many of you won't -- look at the difficulty the Norfolk Southern has had in expanding its rail yard in the Englewood neighborhood of Chicago. If that was Tennessee or North Carolina, the project would have been completed a half decade ago!
There would be significant NIMBY pushback on locating a new steel plant in Charlotte or any of NC’s other well-populated areas. Probably less so in Bumblefork, though there probably still would be some.
Everyone in every state wants to bring in new business and the jobs that go with it. But few people in any state, including Tennessee and North Carolina, want to live anywhere near large industrial operations such as steel plants.
We like clean water here in NC, too.
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I am more concerned about it than I am the future of cities in the upper midwest.
Maybe Miami should open a satellite campus in Detroit?
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There would be significant NIMBY pushback on locating a new steel plant in Charlotte or any of NC’s other well-populated areas. Probably less so in Bumblefork, though there probably still would be some.
Everyone in every state wants to bring in new business and the jobs that go with it. But few people in any state, including Tennessee and North Carolina, want to live anywhere near large industrial operations such as steel plants.
We like clean water here in NC, too.
Been to Smyrna, Tennessee lately? Or Spring Hill, Tennessee?
Smyrna is just south of the Davidson/Rutherford County Line in Rutherford. It was formerly the home of Seward Air Force Base, which closed around 1971. It was a small town controlled by the Ridley Family until Patriarch Sam went to prison for acting consistent with a Chicago politician.
In 1980, Nissan announced it would build a massive automobile assembly complex just south of the old air base. By 1982, the plant was up and running. Today, the Interstate 24 corridor between Nashville and Murfreesboro (about 30 miles long and part of the Nashville MSA) is one of the fastest growing industrial corridors in America -- and it's also more heavily populated than ever. Smyrna is a small city and likely one of the 10 to 15 largest in Tennessee.
And, I won't even start on Spring Hill! Also part of the Nashville MSA.
So yes, people do live near large industrial plants.
P.S. -- My Father, a Marquette Engineer, spent a good chunk of his life helping ensure Nashville and vicinity had clean water!
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Been to Smyrna, Tennessee lately? Or Spring Hill, Tennessee?
Smyrna is just south of the Davidson/Rutherford County Line in Rutherford. It was formerly the home of Seward Air Force Base, which closed around 1971. It was a small town controlled by the Ridley Family until Patriarch Sam went to prison for acting consistent with a Chicago politician.
In 1980, Nissan announced it would build a massive automobile assembly complex just south of the old air base. By 1982, the plant was up and running. Today, the Interstate 24 corridor between Nashville and Murfreesboro (about 30 miles long and part of the Nashville MSA) is one of the fastest growing industrial corridors in America -- and it's also more heavily populated than ever. Smyrna is a small city and likely one of the 10 to 15 largest in Tennessee.
And, I won't even start on Spring Hill! Also part of the Nashville MSA.
So yes, people do live near large industrial plants.
P.S. -- My Father, a Marquette Engineer, spent a good chunk of his life helping ensure Nashville and vicinity had clean water!
And I'm telling you that if a corporation tried to open a steel plant anywhere near any even semi-populous part of the greater Charlotte metro area, you'd hear the NIMBYs if you opened your window in Florida.
Also, 1982 is a long time ago and Nashville has grown a lot since then. I'm guessing most decent neighborhoods would fight like crazy to keep any large industrial complex far away.
Glad to hear your dad fought to help keep water clean. Hearing about places where it's not drinkable due to industrial pollution is beyond sad.
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Which will die first, cities or the NFL?
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Which will die first, cities or the NFL?
Or Apple stock?
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Or Apple stock?
Or Disney?
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Which will die first, cities or the NFL?
Will those things die before or after everybody has a self-driving car and all auto dealers have been relegated to the dustbin of history?
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A little more than 9 years ago, I bet some guy $1,000 after he claimed that "All big box retailers will be gone in 10 years because they won't survive Amazon." Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Costco, Best Buy, all of them!
I hope the guy will pay up ... unless all of those retailers disappear in like 9 months, in which case I'll pay him.
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A little more than 9 years ago, I bet some guy $1,000 after he claimed that "All big box retailers will be gone in 10 years because they won't survive Amazon." Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Costco, Best Buy, all of them!
I hope the guy will pay up ... unless all of those retailers disappear in like 9 months, in which case I'll pay him.
A smart bet. I would even add 10 more years.
People simply like to shop. They want to get out of their houses. I seldom shop online - the exception being for baseball cards because they generally aren't otherwise available
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And I'm telling you that if a corporation tried to open a steel plant anywhere near any even semi-populous part of the greater Charlotte metro area, you'd hear the NIMBYs if you opened your window in Florida.
Also, 1982 is a long time ago and Nashville has grown a lot since then. I'm guessing most decent neighborhoods would fight like crazy to keep any large industrial complex far away.
Glad to hear your dad fought to help keep water clean. Hearing about places where it's not drinkable due to industrial pollution is beyond sad.
Well, industry is still locating in Nashville.
To your bigger question, if we reject industry for our major cities because of stakeholder complaints, what do we do?
1) Leave a semi-skilled workforce, whose forbearers came to the Midwest and Northeast to work in the factories, idle? This requires a huge government investment in social welfare which, all things being equal, none of us want to make.
2) Have the government employ a majority of the semi-skilled workers? That seems to be the answer in Chicago and Illinois and we have seen what that's done to government budgets and pension deficiencies. We can't afford to keep creating "make work" jobs and then hire far more people than we need.
3) Do what Mississippi, Alabama and other then-rural southern states did back in the day -- buy the semi-skilled workers a train or bus ticket back to the south and send them to work there?
4) Do nothing and hope against hope that our urban public school systems somehow, someway get their act together and educate disadvantaged youth to be more than they have been.
None of these options have proven to work. That's why I'm a big believer in urban investment, streamlined permitting and state and federal tax incentives to invest in a very limited urban enterprise zone effort. It has to work because the alternative is a nightmare!
Now, in effect, we're doing 1,2 and 4. The out-of-control crime, poor schools and heavy tax burden will continue to drive people south, even to the Evil Empire that is Florida!!
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I'm a big believer in urban investment, too, dg.
And I hope you and yours get to enjoy Florida for many, many, many, MANY decades.
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That's why I'm a big believer in urban investment, streamlined permitting and state and federal tax incentives to invest in a very limited urban enterprise zone effort. It has to work because the alternative is a nightmare!
the Evil Empire that is Florida!!
I had only a small manufacturing company and when it was time to move to a larger facility, I was planning on moving the company to an industrial areas in the burbs. Richmond's Building Inspection Dept. had earned a rep for being complete a$$holes who nitpicked everything. There had been a years-long departure of businesses, especially manufacturers, fed up with the city BS. The media focused on the story and the head of the dept. was fired, along with his close cronies and replaced with a great, "can-do" guy.
Then the city then offered a some really sweet deals to retain businesses. 1) reasonable inspections that took into consideration the decades old buildings, some late 1800's-early 1900's- so that it was feasible to use the old buildings. 2) a very low interest loan to facilitate upgrading the old buildings and increase the number of employees, pay utility bills etc. 3) If certain easily attainable goals were met in a given time frame, the loan was forgiven. So...I took an eyesore of a building, had it painted and really cleaned up and repaired, and expanded my workforce. The rent of my 13,700 square foot building was about $2.70 per square foot the first year with modest increases in future years, so I was very happy with that. We were featured on the news as a success story and had some city officials at our grand opening, one of whom was our local councilman. Some guy named Tim Kaine. Future gov and senator.
Oh...I agree. Florida is the Evil Empire. Always hated it.
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A little more than 9 years ago, I bet some guy $1,000 after he claimed that "All big box retailers will be gone in 10 years because they won't survive Amazon." Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Costco, Best Buy, all of them!
I hope the guy will pay up ... unless all of those retailers disappear in like 9 months, in which case I'll pay him.
Will be a shock to your system to have reportable income, hey??
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Will be a shock to your system to have reportable income, hey??
We Are Marquette!
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The trend of people moving to cities and especially downtowns has picked right back up. Continues the long term trend.
Generally downtowns and surrounding areas, in particular, are adding population, which helps to offset reduced office workers. Remote work hasn’t meant people going off to live in small towns, at least not post pandemic.
MKE doing well in downtown and the surrounding areas. Better than well, doing great, even booming. Bodes well for MU. MU is in a good spot lots of new building activity to the northeast, east, and southeast - southeast had been a dead area and Wisconsin Ave to the east is going great, hopefully that trend will continue and spread. Kids want vibrant cities and MKE’s downtown and surrounding area qualify. MKE not doing so well in poorer areas, northwest of city center, where most of the crime occurs - I wonder if these are the areas people are leaving and heading south…?
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I'm a big believer in urban investment, too, dg.
And I hope you and yours get to enjoy Florida for many, many, many, MANY decades.
Thank you. I hope so too Brother MU! The sea is still where it's supposed to be -- 1,200 YARDS FROM MY FRONT DOOR!!!
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I had only a small manufacturing company and when it was time to move to a larger facility, I was planning on moving the company to an industrial areas in the burbs. Richmond's Building Inspection Dept. had earned a rep for being complete a$$holes who nitpicked everything. There had been a years-long departure of businesses, especially manufacturers, fed up with the city BS. The media focused on the story and the head of the dept. was fired, along with his close cronies and replaced with a great, "can-do" guy.
Then the city then offered a some really sweet deals to retain businesses. 1) reasonable inspections that took into consideration the decades old buildings, some late 1800's-early 1900's- so that it was feasible to use the old buildings. 2) a very low interest loan to facilitate upgrading the old buildings and increase the number of employees, pay utility bills etc. 3) If certain easily attainable goals were met in a given time frame, the loan was forgiven. So...I took an eyesore of a building, had it painted and really cleaned up and repaired, and expanded my workforce. The rent of my 13,700 square foot building was about $2.70 per square foot the first year with modest increases in future years, so I was very happy with that. We were featured on the news as a success story and had some city officials at our grand opening, one of whom was our local councilman. Some guy named Tim Kaine. Future gov and senator.
Oh...I agree. Florida is the Evil Empire. Always hated it.
Brother Snoop:
This is the kind of thing I'm talking about. You want to make cities viable, you do what Richmond did with your business. It makes one heck of a difference. You pay taxes, people work and homes get upgraded. Cars get purchased and people have hope.
As for Florida, I call it the Evil Empire because I lived in Illinois and no one in Illinois government likes Florida! I live on the Treasure Coast and actually find the place generally works well, when our governor isn't off trying to trap mice!!!!
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The trend of people moving to cities and especially downtowns has picked right back up. Continues the long term trend.
Generally downtowns and surrounding areas, in particular, are adding population, which helps to offset reduced office workers. Remote work hasn’t meant people going off to live in small towns, at least not post pandemic.
MKE doing well in downtown and the surrounding areas. Better than well, doing great, even booming. Bodes well for MU. MU is in a good spot lots of new building activity to the northeast, east, and southeast - southeast had been a dead area and Wisconsin Ave to the east is going great, hopefully that trend will continue and spread. Kids want vibrant cities and MKE’s downtown and surrounding area qualify. MKE not doing so well in poorer areas, northwest of city center, where most of the crime occurs - I wonder if these are the areas people are leaving and heading south…?
Nick Bloom of Stanford University just put out a report today saying the opposite if this.
@I_Am_NickBloom 10h
Was Feb 2023 peak Return To Office?
The three best indicators of Return to Office (or its inverse, Working From Home) all show drops in office occupancy and rises in WFH in March 2023.
It looks increasingly like RTO has finally stalled out.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuA8DTyacAAyHkI?format=jpg&name=medium)
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I had only a small manufacturing company and when it was time to move to a larger facility, I was planning on moving the company to an industrial areas in the burbs. Richmond's Building Inspection Dept. had earned a rep for being complete a$$holes who nitpicked everything. There had been a years-long departure of businesses, especially manufacturers, fed up with the city BS. The media focused on the story and the head of the dept. was fired, along with his close cronies and replaced with a great, "can-do" guy.
Then the city then offered a some really sweet deals to retain businesses. 1) reasonable inspections that took into consideration the decades old buildings, some late 1800's-early 1900's- so that it was feasible to use the old buildings. 2) a very low interest loan to facilitate upgrading the old buildings and increase the number of employees, pay utility bills etc. 3) If certain easily attainable goals were met in a given time frame, the loan was forgiven. So...I took an eyesore of a building, had it painted and really cleaned up and repaired, and expanded my workforce. The rent of my 13,700 square foot building was about $2.70 per square foot the first year with modest increases in future years, so I was very happy with that. We were featured on the news as a success story and had some city officials at our grand opening, one of whom was our local councilman. Some guy named Tim Kaine. Future gov and senator.
Oh...I agree. Florida is the Evil Empire. Always hated it.
Interesting stuff and smart business.
Meanwhile as someone who works for a small business in Wisconsin, that will be leaving in the next 12-24 months, I can testify that many places, especially in the North, are not like that.
Things have changed post-COVID, naturally, but circa 2019/early 2020, you’d have smaller companies fighting in the Midwest with local laws, ordinances, etc… while states, counties, and municipalities in the Sun Belt were literally throwing money at them. At one point, the minimum we could have gotten for moving a company of 15-20 people to a variety of places in Texas, Florida, or Tennessee was close very to 7 figures, not even including tax savings and related incentives
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Regarding the state of Milwaukee, I suggest reading the story from last month's Journal Sentinel which the mayor of Milwaukee describes what is happening in the city.
Descriptions here are not remotely close to what the Mayor thinks.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2023/03/08/whats-path-for-milwaukee-to-reverse-population-decline-grow-again/69959649007/
highlights
During his campaign for mayor, Johnson raised a few eyebrows when he talked about the city increasing its population to one million people, nearly twice its current size.
It is not just that Johnson wants Milwaukee to grow. He needs population and business growth to help relieve enormous pressure on the city’s long-term finances.
But you sense that Johnson’s moonshot for Milwaukee is about more than aspiring to grow; it is about inspiring a city to reimagine itself, to think differently about its future.
Milwaukee’s population reached its peak in 1960, when census data showed a city of more than 741,000 residents. That made it the 11th largest city in America. Today, it is 31st. Since 1970, except for a slight uptick in the early 2010s, the city’s population has been steadily declining.
According to the Census Bureau, the city’s population fell 17,600 since 2010 to just over 577,000 in 2020.
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Still, the optics of Milwaukee’s population decline can be deceiving. In some places, it looks and feels like the city is growing. The city saw an explosion of new apartment buildings and condominiums in the last two decades. The apartment building boom continues. Right now, construction is underway on a 44-story tower near the Milwaukee Art Museum. A 31-story apartment building is rising on the northwestern edge of the city’s Third Ward.
The number of occupied housing units in the city increased by 5,000 in the last decade. So, how can our population be declining?
The answer lies in shrinking household sizes in Milwaukee. Most of the new housing units in Milwaukee were smaller apartments with one or two people living in them. Citywide, the typical household size fell from 2.5 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2020.
That change is largely the result of declining birthrates in the last decade. Birth certificate records show that 117,000 babies were born to Milwaukee mothers in the 1990s, falling to 112,000 in the 2000s, and 98,000 in the 2010s.
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Metro Milwaukee recovered from the last recession more slowly than some peer cities, with many of the new jobs created in lower-wage occupations. As part of “The American Growth Project,” a recent study from the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise at the University of North Carolina ranked the 50 largest cities (metros) by speed of economic growth in 2022. Milwaukee finished last.
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Nick Bloom of Stanford University just put out a report today saying the opposite if this.
@I_Am_NickBloom 10h
Was Feb 2023 peak Return To Office?
The three best indicators of Return to Office (or its inverse, Working From Home) all show drops in office occupancy and rises in WFH in March 2023.
It looks increasingly like RTO has finally stalled out.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuA8DTyacAAyHkI?format=jpg&name=medium)
GOO is speaking about people residing in downtowns.
Bloom's report is about people working in offices, downtown and elsewhere.
Not the same thing.
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GOO is speaking about people residing in downtowns.
Bloom's report is about people working in offices, downtown and elsewhere.
Not the same thing.
Yep, in fact GOO specifically acknowledged a downturn in office workers in his 2nd paragraph:
Generally downtowns and surrounding areas, in particular, are adding population, which helps to offset reduced office workers. Remote work hasn’t meant people going off to live in small towns, at least not post pandemic.
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Regarding the state of Milwaukee, I suggest reading the story from last month's Journal Sentinel which the mayor of Milwaukee describes what is happening in the city.
Descriptions here are not remotely close to what the Mayor thinks.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2023/03/08/whats-path-for-milwaukee-to-reverse-population-decline-grow-again/69959649007/
highlights
During his campaign for mayor, Johnson raised a few eyebrows when he talked about the city increasing its population to one million people, nearly twice its current size.
It is not just that Johnson wants Milwaukee to grow. He needs population and business growth to help relieve enormous pressure on the city’s long-term finances.
But you sense that Johnson’s moonshot for Milwaukee is about more than aspiring to grow; it is about inspiring a city to reimagine itself, to think differently about its future.
Milwaukee’s population reached its peak in 1960, when census data showed a city of more than 741,000 residents. That made it the 11th largest city in America. Today, it is 31st. Since 1970, except for a slight uptick in the early 2010s, the city’s population has been steadily declining.
According to the Census Bureau, the city’s population fell 17,600 since 2010 to just over 577,000 in 2020.
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Still, the optics of Milwaukee’s population decline can be deceiving. In some places, it looks and feels like the city is growing. The city saw an explosion of new apartment buildings and condominiums in the last two decades. The apartment building boom continues. Right now, construction is underway on a 44-story tower near the Milwaukee Art Museum. A 31-story apartment building is rising on the northwestern edge of the city’s Third Ward.
The number of occupied housing units in the city increased by 5,000 in the last decade. So, how can our population be declining?
The answer lies in shrinking household sizes in Milwaukee. Most of the new housing units in Milwaukee were smaller apartments with one or two people living in them. Citywide, the typical household size fell from 2.5 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2020.
That change is largely the result of declining birthrates in the last decade. Birth certificate records show that 117,000 babies were born to Milwaukee mothers in the 1990s, falling to 112,000 in the 2000s, and 98,000 in the 2010s.
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Metro Milwaukee recovered from the last recession more slowly than some peer cities, with many of the new jobs created in lower-wage occupations. As part of “The American Growth Project,” a recent study from the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise at the University of North Carolina ranked the 50 largest cities (metros) by speed of economic growth in 2022. Milwaukee finished last.
You already linked to this article.
Milwaukee isn't growing to a million people. Milwaukee is doing largely fine - losing population mostly due to household size, not a decrease in living units. Its going through ebbs and flows like every other city has for time eternal. And Marquette isn't leaving the city.
Honestly I have no idea where you are going with this stuff. It's like you view yourself as some sort of futurist but you really don't have a point.
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You already linked to this article.
Milwaukee isn't growing to a million people. Milwaukee is doing largely fine - losing population mostly due to household size, not a decrease in living units. Its going through ebbs and flows like every other city has for time eternal. And Marquette isn't leaving the city.
Honestly I have no idea where you are going with this stuff. It's like you view yourself as some sort of futurist but you really don't have a point.
I think he's just airing out his feelings? Really weird.
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Interesting stuff and smart business.
Meanwhile as someone who works for a small business in Wisconsin, that will be leaving in the next 12-24 months, I can testify that many places, especially in the North, are not like that.
Things have changed post-COVID, naturally, but circa 2019/early 2020, you’d have smaller companies fighting in the Midwest with local laws, ordinances, etc… while states, counties, and municipalities in the Sun Belt were literally throwing money at them. At one point, the minimum we could have gotten for moving a company of 15-20 people to a variety of places in Texas, Florida, or Tennessee was close very to 7 figures, not even including tax savings and related incentives
Yep. The attitudes and ignorance of officials in too many metro areas toward business are simply awful. I was really pissed when Obama, during a campaign stop in Roanoke VA, said "If you own a business, you didn't build it. Someone else did that." Of course, that "someone else" is government. Business funds governments via taxes on income and half of FICA as well as hiring tax paying employees. I absolutely could not stand Obama from that day forward. I will quickly add that I do not like either party. After risking the equity in our home, investing almost all of our savings and having to sign personally on large loans, that comment got to me Big Time.
Fun story: An owner of a small commercial building in Richmond was making some simple repairs to his roof when a building inspector driving by noticed him, and scaled the ladder to the flat roof. He told the man that he needed a permit and to stop work immediately. The man pointed out that the cost of the repairs was under the amount requiring a permit, but the inspector was adamant.
"Okay, fine! I'll get a permit." The inspector began to write up the "violation" report while the man descended the ladder. Then the man took the ladder away. It was his, after all, and the inspector had not been given permission to use it. This was the pre cell phone era, so the inspector used his radio to summon help so that he could get off the roof. A news reporter was tipped off about the intercepted call for help, and the TV and radio stations and their listeners had a great time getting a laugh out of it.
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You already linked to this article.
Milwaukee isn't growing to a million people. Milwaukee is doing largely fine - losing population mostly due to household size, not a decrease in living units. Its going through ebbs and flows like every other city has for time eternal. And Marquette isn't leaving the city.
Honestly I have no idea where you are going with this stuff. It's like you view yourself as some sort of futurist but you really don't have a point.
I think he just wants to have a discussion.
The trap is that there is often a conclusion made with political undertones added.
The reality is that cities will continue to grow and rural America will become smaller and smaller. Trying to pin this trend on one thing or another is a fool's errand.
There are a myriad of reasons why populations grow in one place, and shrink in another, and then change back over time.
If you want my true opinion, Heise 2.0 has always presented himself as a conservative around here, and he is trying to correlate an uptick in crime with a decrease in urban populations. That is his political undertone, and his argument is wafer thin. But most people are simple. They want logic or data to all fit nicely into one box or another. It doesn't. You can't describe why anything as complex as population variation over time in a single sentence.
But "crime is bad in big scary cities and that's why people are fleeing in record numbers" is a great way to drive clicks to a website or draw eyes to a television. ESPECIALLY, if the person who is reading or watching has recently moved away from a city or is considering moving away from an urban area. It adds to their confirmation bias that they've made a smart decision. A little dopamine is released, and they run and tell their friends.
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Yep. The attitudes and ignorance of officials in too many metro areas toward business are simply awful. I was really pissed when Obama, during a campaign stop in Roanoke VA, said "If you own a business, you didn't build it. Someone else did that." Of course, that "someone else" is government. Business funds governments via taxes on income and half of FICA as well as hiring tax paying employees. I absolutely could not stand Obama from that day forward. I will quickly add that I do not like either party. After risking the equity in our home, investing almost all of our savings and having to sign personally on large loans, that comment got to me Big Time
Hoping to avoid a partisan debate here, but two points (the second more important than the first):
1. You're both misquoting Obama and leaving out the first part of the quote that puts the second part in context. And, in context, he was correct.
2. No, business does not fund government ... and it sure as heck doesn't fund government via income taxes. It's the labor of individuals that produces revenue for businesses. The business returns a portion of that revenue to the individual (i.e. wages), from which the individual then funds a share of government (i.e. income taxes). And it's also through revenue produced by those individuals that businesses pay corporate and other taxes.
The business in and of itself is merely an entity through which individuals collectively produce goods or services that generate revenue. It's not some benevolent being which bestows money upon employees and government out of the goodness of its heart.
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Yep. The attitudes and ignorance of officials in too many metro areas toward business are simply awful.
Don't cities compete frequently in an attempt to attract businesses (sometimes to the detriment of the local populace)? Foxconn, Amazon HQ2 are 2 that come to mind easily. Plus KC KS vs KC MO.
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Hoping to avoid a partisan debate here, but two points (the second more important than the first):
1. You're both misquoting Obama and leaving out the first part of the quote that puts the second part in context. And, in context, he was correct.
2. No, business does not fund government ... and it sure as heck doesn't fund government via income taxes. It's the labor of individuals that produces revenue for businesses. The business returns a portion of that revenue to the individual (i.e. wages), from which the individual then funds a share of government (i.e. income taxes). And it's also through revenue produced by those individuals that businesses pay corporate and other taxes.
The business in and of itself is merely an entity through which individuals collectively produce goods or services that generate revenue. It's not some benevolent being which bestows money upon employees and government out of the goodness of its heart.
Without the entrepreneur's financial risk and efforts to establish the business, there are no individuals producing goods and services. The "mere entity" is the foundation. And I neither said nor implied that it was some sort of benevolent being. That's laughable.
Look at the numerous small towns throughout the country that no longer have those "mere entities" and tell me about the residents' income and taxes generated. They are virtually ghost towns.
Regarding Obama's remarks, allegedly lifted from an Elizabeth Warren speech, he clearly was giving credit to government for providing roads, bridges etc. And exactly where did the government get the money to do things like that? His "you didn't build that" was an insult to anyone who worked extremely hard to get a business up and running. Shame on him for his cheap shot, political BS.
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Without the entrepreneur's financial risk and efforts to establish the business, there are no individuals producing goods and services. The "mere entity" is the foundation. And I neither said nor implied that it was some sort of benevolent being. That's laughable.
Look at the numerous small towns throughout the country that no longer have those "mere entities" and tell me about the residents' income and taxes generated. They are virtually ghost towns.
You can't run modern businesses from small towns or rural areas (that I've been to, staying with family). Their Internet is terrible. Fastest thing available in many places is 5g Home Internet. It's wild how little we invest in the infrastructure in this country.
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You can't run modern businesses from small towns or rural areas (that I've been to, staying with family). Their Internet is terrible. Fastest thing available in many places is 5g Home Internet. It's wild how little we invest in the infrastructure in this country.
That's changing in many areas. Our electric co -op set up a subsidiary (Firefly) and, with some generous government grant money, established a fiber system in our rural county. We have better internet than my sister in the Chicago burbs! It's a good example of government working with businesses and individuals. Property values are estimated to have increased about 10% after the system was up and running.
But regarding your point about trying to run a business in an area with poor internet...very true, but the disastrous decline in business closures in small towns and cities mostly occurred decades ago. And 5G Home Internet makes it clear that things cannot change in that scenario.
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Don't cities compete frequently in an attempt to attract businesses (sometimes to the detriment of the local populace)? Foxconn, Amazon HQ2 are 2 that come to mind easily. Plus KC KS vs KC MO.
True that. I should have been more clear. I was referring to small businesses where the officials seem too often do not give a rat's ass. Individually, the small businesses are sometimes barely visible, but collectively they add up. Next time that you are in a smaller city (or even parts of large cities) notice the boarded up buildings. They spell FAILURE, and not just business failure.
The huge companies are sought after, and the cities compete aggressively.
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Without the entrepreneur's financial risk and efforts to establish the business, there are no individuals producing goods and services. The "mere entity" is the foundation. And I neither said nor implied that it was some sort of benevolent being. That's laughable.
So, I'm not sure what this has to do with your insistence that business funds government through income taxes and FICA (????), but I do agree with you a bit here. Having people who invest their time and resources in creating businesses is massively important for sustaining a thriving economy.
But what you seem unable or unwilling to recognize is that all the entrepreneurial spirit in the world isn't going to go far without access to publicly funded infrastructure and utilities, a public transportation network, a workforce educated on the public dime, a secure financial system, police, fire and perhaps even military protection, a stable currency, and on and on.
I mean, I'm sure there are some very smart, inventive and hard-working people in Somalia, Yemen and Honduras, but without all the benefits of a stable, effective government (effective being a relative term here), none of them are going to be the next Steve Jobs or Jeff Bezos.
And no, businesses do not fund this. Individuals do. The vast majority of public funding comes via individual taxes, consumption taxes and property taxes.
At the end of the day, both sides need each other to thrive. You seem to only understand half of that.
Look at the numerous small towns throughout the country that no longer have those "mere entities" and tell me about the residents' income and taxes generated. They are virtually ghost towns.
Honestly not sure what this has to do with what we were discussing. Some small towns are ghost towns because of something Obama said a decade ago? Explain further.
Regarding Obama's remarks, allegedly lifted from an Elizabeth Warren speech, he clearly was giving credit to government for providing roads, bridges etc. And exactly where did the government get the money to do things like that? His "you didn't build that" was an insult to anyone who worked extremely hard to get a business up and running. Shame on him for his cheap shot, political BS.
As I explained, government gets its money to provide roads, bridges, etc. primarily from individual citizens. So, yeah, Obama was right. Or is it your belief that inidividual businesses built the roads and airports they use, built the public utilities, built the airports, built the internet, etc.?
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Without the entrepreneur's financial risk and efforts to establish the business, there are no individuals producing goods and services. The "mere entity" is the foundation. And I neither said nor implied that it was some sort of benevolent being. That's laughable.
Look at the numerous small towns throughout the country that no longer have those "mere entities" and tell me about the residents' income and taxes generated. They are virtually ghost towns.
Regarding Obama's remarks, allegedly lifted from an Elizabeth Warren speech, he clearly was giving credit to government for providing roads, bridges etc. And exactly where did the government get the money to do things like that? His "you didn't build that" was an insult to anyone who worked extremely hard to get a business up and running. Shame on him for his cheap shot, political BS.
I think the point was that you didn't do it all by yourself... because you didn't. Society helped a lot and you were given the tools because we have a functioning society. A functioning society where not everyone has the means to start a business.
I think you probably understand this, but there are quite a few people (some I know personally) who think that starting a business is incredibly difficult. Sure, there are risks (fairly minor if we are being honest), but the rewards are enormous if done correctly. Now, seeing that cost/benefit analysis and actually DOING something and creating the business is the hardest part. A lot of people have a lot of great ideas, but don't have any idea where to start, but securing financials from a bank is not terribly difficult.
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Pakuni… must’ve been a liberal arts kind of guy. Clueless when it kums 2 Da kash
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I think the point was that you didn't do it all by yourself... because you didn't. Society helped a lot and you were given the tools because we have a functioning society. A functioning society where not everyone has the means to start a business.
I think you probably understand this, but there are quite a few people (some I know personally) who think that starting a business is incredibly difficult. Sure, there are risks (fairly minor if we are being honest), but the rewards are enormous if done correctly. Eno Now, seeing that cost/benefit analysis and actually DOING something and creating the business is the hardest part. A lot of people have a lot of great ideas, but don't have any idea where to start, but securing financials from a bank is not terribly difficult.
We agree for the most part, but your "fairly minor" comment and ease of securing financing are not always true. The need for infrastructure is absolutely essential, but my point was the tax revenues that allow for the infrastructure do not magically appear in the hands of government. Businesses are private, not government, property. Thank you for not assuming that I needed a lecture on the subject.
I have no love for either party, but a comment from British Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher years ago was SO spot on: "The problem with socialism is that sooner or later, you run out of other people's money." :D I love the quote because it clearly identifies how governments do what they do.
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So, I'm not sure what this has to do with your insistence that business funds government through income taxes and FICA (????), but I do agree with you a bit here. Having people who invest their time and resources in creating businesses is massively important for sustaining a thriving economy.
But what you seem unable or unwilling to recognize is that all the entrepreneurial spirit in the world isn't going to go far without access to publicly funded infrastructure and utilities, a public transportation network, a workforce educated on the public dime, a secure financial system, police, fire and perhaps even military protection, a stable currency, and on and on.
I mean, I'm sure there are some very smart, inventive and hard-working people in Somalia, Yemen and Honduras, but without all the benefits of a stable, effective government (effective being a relative term here), none of them are going to be the next Steve Jobs or Jeff Bezos.
And no, businesses do not fund this. Individuals do. The vast majority of public funding comes via individual taxes, consumption taxes and property taxes.
At the end of the day, both sides need each other to thrive. You seem to only understand half of that.
Honestly not sure what this has to do with what we were discussing. Some small towns are ghost towns because of something Obama said a decade ago? Explain further.
As I explained, government gets its money to provide roads, bridges, etc. primarily from individual citizens. So, yeah, Obama was right. Or is it your belief that inidividual businesses built the roads and airports they use, built the public utilities, built the airports, built the internet, etc.?
Your assumption that I am unwilling to accept the importance of infrastructure is just that- your assumption.
I understand all of the bolded. Whether people are self-employed, work for a business or tradesmen etc., they pay taxes. Unemployed people do not. Take a deep breath and stop your condescension and patronizing BS.
Since I did not link Obama's quote in any way-implied or stated-with the "ghost towns" comment mentioned in another thread, YOU "explain further." Stop making crap up. This is just one of the reasons why I replied to Hards post in a very different tone than yours. His tone was respectful while commenting on my post.
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Pakuni… must’ve been a liberal arts kind of guy. Clueless when it kums 2 Da kash
;D
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We agree for the most part, but your "fairly minor" comment and ease of securing financing are not always true. The need for infrastructure is absolutely essential, but my point was the tax revenues that allow for the infrastructure do not magically appear in the hands of government. Businesses are private, not government, property. Thank you for not assuming that I needed a lecture on the subject.
I don't see the point you're trying to make here (and that is probably a me thing). You're upset with Obama because you feel like he slighted your entrepreneurship by claiming 'you didn't build that'?
Yes, the risks are fairly minor. What is the worst that can happen? Your LLC, s-corp, or however you arranged your corporation declares bankruptcy and goes under. You are forced to sell your home/assets and become a worker again instead of an owner. Does that suck? Of course it does, but that is what you signed up for. It's why the rewards are higher than they would be for the average worker. I am not trying to lecture you, personally. You obviously know all of this (which I made clear, previously), but I'm just stating for anyone reading, my opinions on the matter. If you're not interested or don't value them, I understand. Not everyone will.
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Your assumption that I am unwilling to accept the importance of infrastructure is just that- your assumption.
I understand all of the bolded. Whether people are self-employed, work for a business or tradesmen etc., they pay taxes. Unemployed people do not. Take a deep breath and stop your condescension and patronizing BS.
Since I did not link Obama's quote in any way-implied or stated-with the "ghost towns" comment mentioned in another thread, YOU "explain further." Stop making crap up. This is just one of the reasons why I replied to Hards post in a very different tone than yours. His tone was respectful while commenting on my post.
Unemployed people still pay all kinds of taxes. Gas tax, property taxes (where applicable), sales tax, etc. Sure, they don't pay income taxes, but they certainly still contribute financially to the system. :P
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Your assumption that I am unwilling to accept the importance of infrastructure is just that- your assumption.
You're the one who brought up Obama's quote and that you "absolutely could not stand Obama from that day forward," but that quote was exactly about the "importance of infrastructure." (As well as other public services such as public education, fire protection, etc.)
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Unemployed people still pay all kinds of taxes. Gas tax, property taxes (where applicable), sales tax, etc. Sure, they don't pay income taxes, but they certainly still contribute financially to the system. :P
Fair enough.
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Your assumption that I am unwilling to accept the importance of infrastructure is just that- your assumption.
I understand all of the bolded. Whether people are self-employed, work for a business or tradesmen etc., they pay taxes. Unemployed people do not. Take a deep breath and stop your condescension and patronizing BS.
Since I did not link Obama's quote in any way-implied or stated-with the "ghost towns" comment mentioned in another thread, YOU "explain further." Stop making crap up. This is just one of the reasons why I replied to Hards post in a very different tone than yours. His tone was respectful while commenting on my post.
My apologies if my response came off as condescending. I'm legitimately confused as to the point you're trying to make.
If you accept that it's individuals that largely fund the government, why do you disagree with the idea that it's not businesses that "built that" ... that being the infrastructure and stable environment that you accept is necessary for businesses to succeed?
I wholeheartedly agree that Obama's remarks could have been better delivered, but his point is not incorrect.
And I'll note I'm not the one here lobbing insults.
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You can't run modern businesses from small towns or rural areas (that I've been to, staying with family). Their Internet is terrible. Fastest thing available in many places is 5g Home Internet. It's wild how little we invest in the infrastructure in this country.
I agree with Brother Snoop that rural access is changing. And, if necessary, there's always satellite.
The bigger question is transportation. Not just the logistics of getting in and out -- trucks and trains deal with that -- but the proximity to an airport. Companies in places like Moline, Peoria, Decatur etc., have found the connecting flight on the Devil's Chariot (CRJ-200s in many cases) adds hours to a trip, especially if your company is international. You either do what Walmart does and run your own private airline or you do what Cat did and move to Deerfield and then to Dallas.
Sof ar, Deere is still in Moline but the big question for them is for how long?
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Yes, the risks are fairly minor. What is the worst that can happen? Your LLC, s-corp, or however you arranged your corporation declares bankruptcy and goes under. You are forced to sell your home/assets and become a worker again instead of an owner. Does that suck? Of course it does, but that is what you signed up for.
If losing all your assets and/or livelihood is “fairly minor” I’m not sure what is major in this day and age?!
I think the bigger ideology, which is what I feel SS is getting at, is the mentality by some that government is the more useful benevolent and far more important economic driver/entity, not entrepreneurship/business creation. I’m not saying that’s what you or anyone in this thread has specifically stated, it’s hardly an uncommon sentiment. Undercut the role and risk of business or creators by vaunting the role or importance of government. Which has always seemed silly to me. Everyone has the same access to government created infrastructure, but not everyone is making an outsized economic impact with it.
Shockingly, the Venm Diagram of those people and those who think CEOs don’t do much but sign papers and go to a few meetings while everyone does the work…is nearly a clean circle
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My apologies if my response came off as condescending. I'm legitimately confused as to the point you're trying to make.
If you accept that it's individuals that largely fund the government, why do you disagree with the idea that it's not businesses that "built that" ... that being the infrastructure and stable environment that you accept is necessary for businesses to succeed?
I wholeheartedly agree that Obama's remarks could have been better delivered, but his point is not incorrect.
And I'll note I'm not the one here lobbing insults.
Apology accepted. And I have to 'fess up that I could have handled myself better. I think our discussions would have been better served without your "mere entity" comment though. That set me off. JWags presented my case far better than I did myself, so please read his interpretation of what he thought I was driving at.
Are we good?
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If losing all your assets and/or livelihood is “fairly minor” I’m not sure what is major in this day and age?!
I think the bigger ideology, which is what I feel SS is getting at, is the mentality by some that government is the more useful benevolent and far more important economic driver/entity, not entrepreneurship/business creation. I’m not saying that’s what you or anyone in this thread has specifically stated, it’s hardly an uncommon sentiment. Undercut the role and risk of business or creators by vaunting the role or importance of government. Which has always seemed silly to me. Everyone has the same access to government created infrastructure, but not everyone is making an outsized economic impact with it.
Shockingly, the Venm Diagram of those people and those who think CEOs don’t do much but sign papers and go to a few meetings while everyone does the work…is nearly a clean circle
Thank you SO much for identifying what I was saying far better than I did myself. I'm a little embarrassed that I did convey my thoughts better. You nailed it.
Oh, and I know that does not necessarily mean you agree with me on a number of issues. Thanks again.
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If losing all your assets and/or livelihood is “fairly minor” I’m not sure what is major in this day and age?!
I think the bigger ideology, which is what I feel SS is getting at, is the mentality by some that government is the more useful benevolent and far more important economic driver/entity, not entrepreneurship/business creation. I’m not saying that’s what you or anyone in this thread has specifically stated, it’s hardly an uncommon sentiment. Undercut the role and risk of business or creators by vaunting the role or importance of government. Which has always seemed silly to me. Everyone has the same access to government created infrastructure, but not everyone is making an outsized economic impact with it.
Shockingly, the Venm Diagram of those people and those who think CEOs don’t do much but sign papers and go to a few meetings while everyone does the work…is nearly a clean circle
Well that depends. If you lose your home and all your assets, then you probably held on to the idea of the business too long. Also, people from all walks of life lose their homes due to financial hardship. It isn't uncommon, and there is always a road back from such things. None of it is fun, but it certainly isn't insurmountable. No one should be heaving themselves off the US Bank building because they had to declare bankruptcy or had to sell assets.
I will say that the older a person gets, the more difficult it is to bounce back from a failed business.
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Pakuni… must’ve been a liberal arts kind of guy. Clueless when it kums 2 Da kash
No way. He's the smartest guy on this board.
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I don't see the point you're trying to make here (and that is probably a me thing). You're upset with Obama because you feel like he slighted your entrepreneurship by claiming 'you didn't build that'?
Yes, the risks are fairly minor. What is the worst that can happen? Your LLC, s-corp, or however you arranged your corporation declares bankruptcy and goes under. You are forced to sell your home/assets and become a worker again instead of an owner. Does that suck? Of course it does, but that is what you signed up for. It's why the rewards are higher than they would be for the average worker. I am not trying to lecture you, personally. You obviously know all of this (which I made clear, previously), but I'm just stating for anyone reading, my opinions on the matter. If you're not interested or don't value them, I understand. Not everyone will.
r/selfawarewolves
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r/selfawarewolves
I'm just self aware. The meme doesn't fit here.
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I don't see the point you're trying to make here (and that is probably a me thing). You're upset with Obama because you feel like he slighted your entrepreneurship by claiming 'you didn't build that'?
Yes, the risks are fairly minor. What is the worst that can happen? Your LLC, s-corp, or however you arranged your corporation declares bankruptcy and goes under. You are forced to sell your home/assets and become a worker again instead of an owner. Does that suck? Of course it does, but that is what you signed up for. It's why the rewards are higher than they would be for the average worker. I am not trying to lecture you, personally. You obviously know all of this (which I made clear, previously), but I'm just stating for anyone reading, my opinions on the matter. If you're not interested or don't value them, I understand. Not everyone will.
Huh? I meant my post as a "thanks" and am not sure how you read it otherwise.
Huh/
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I agree with Brother Snoop that rural access is changing. And, if necessary, there's always satellite.
The bigger question is transportation. Not just the logistics of getting in and out -- trucks and trains deal with that -- but the proximity to an airport. Companies in places like Moline, Peoria, Decatur etc., have found the connecting flight on the Devil's Chariot (CRJ-200s in many cases) adds hours to a trip, especially if your company is international. You either do what Walmart does and run your own private airline or you do what Cat did and move to Deerfield and then to Dallas.
Sof ar, Deere is still in Moline but the big question for them is for how long?
Satellite? Ugh! That's what we had before fiber. Maybe ours was unusually bad, and wooded areas do not help with signal strength. When it rained hard and during thunderstorms, it went out. And the number of people drawing from it slowed it down during certain hours. Not that it was very fast to begin with.
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No way. He's the smartest guy on this board.
Probably not.
But definitely smarter than you.
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Probably not.
But definitely smarter than you.
low bar
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low bar
Agreed.
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One of the things to which we must distinguish is the future of all cities, versus regional cities (i.e., Midwest, Northeast, small/large, rest of the country).
Cities in the sunbelt and the west are, long-term, viable and generally will continue dramatic growth. I'm thinking Nashville, Charlotte, Austin and Orlando. With the exception of, possibly, Nashville, the economies aren't based on traditional manufacturing and warehousing. All have a niche that's somewhat resilient to steep downturns and the growth of these cities covers up for some of the sociological problems they face.
Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles all will be strong and even stronger if they solve their homeless problem. Ditto for Denver and Phoenix.
Where we have problems are in sunsetting cities. Government is an increasingly large part of the economy, through transfer payments and make-work jobs. S0ocialists may disagree with me but far-left mayors and governors discourage long-term investment, particularly capital investment that is not easily portable. Having to bail out pension systems in New Jersey, Illinois and Connecticut, for example, by themselves is a hugely discouraging factor in investment in any of these states. This despite good educational systems, talented workers and mature infrastructure.
Small cities are only as good as the company they keep. Classic case is the Quad Cities of Western Illinois and Eastern Iowa. In 1978, when I arrived there, it was a blue collar paradise and nobody ever dreamed anything would change. Case, International Harvester, Caterpillar and Deere all had major manufacturing in the area. Collectively, they employed about 35,000 people at the time. Their suppliers probably employed another 10,000. By 1988, all 35,000 manufacturing jobs, or 10 percent of the regional population, were gone. It's 35 years later and the area still has not recovered -- and probably never will.
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Real questions about where cities in the West are going to get their water from if they continue to grow. That's a way bigger issue than homelessness.
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Real questions about where cities in the West are going to get their water from if they continue to grow. That's a way bigger issue than homelessness.
Sure is
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I have no love for either party, but a comment from British Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher years ago was SO spot on: "The problem with socialism is that sooner or later, you run out of other people's money." :D I love the quote because it clearly identifies how governments do what they do.
The big problem with this quote is when you control the printing press you don't run out of anyone's money. You just print more.
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Homelessness is a problem?
I think I can come up with a solution...
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Homelessness is a problem?
I think I can come up with a solution...
I gotchu.
Homes.
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Homelessness is a problem?
I think I can come up with a solution...
more guns?
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Homelessness is a problem?
I think I can come up with a solution...
Couple of ideas:
1. Make them into food and feed the slaves mining cobalt
2. Pay-per-view fights to the death
3. Ignore them and blame immigrants
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First of all, Marquette isn't moving. Ever.
Second, Marquette's mission is to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and the Midwest first. Marquette's commitment to the inner city is an essential part of the Jesuit mission of Men and Women for Others. The notion of Marquette on some leafy green campus in Mequon or Cudahy is theoretically appealing to suburbanites but not in keeping with who we are.
Porky concurs with Dgies and The Sultan. MU is not moving nor should it and it's urban location is its greatest strength!
That said, Heisenberg is absolutely correct in acknowledging WASH U in STL as a great example of a National University that is thriving in an extremely declining area. It's not just perceived to be a National University. It is one in every sense of the word. MU may perceive itself as a National University but isn't remotely close to one in Porky's opinion with 75% of all undergrads hailing from two states. Wash U actually brags that 70% of its undergrads grew up more than 500 miles from STL. MU isn't ever going to achieve that and that's ok. Unlike downtown STL though, downtown MKE seems to be thriving. Porky's been to MKE twice this year already and Downtown was packed both times and lots of new hotels have been built in the last few years as well. MU needs to branch out and attract a lot more students from other parts of the country. That doesn't mean MU is abandoning its commitment to MKE in general or it's inner city in particular. Porky would argue strongly that if MU adopted such a strategy, the city of MKE would be strengthened considerably and might be able to offer more scholarships for qualified inner city MKE students to attend MU. The stronger MU becomes the stronger MKE becomes!
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Interesting subject. NYC may be a bad example since it's an international city that doesn't really have a downtown in the same sense as MKE, but it's largely recovered from the pandemic. On any given evening, almost all decent restaurants and bars are packed in both midtown and the residential areas of Manhattan, and the better parts of Brooklyn. Rents are the highest they've ever been and demand among young people and recent college grads to live in NYC is as strong as it's always been. Anecdotally, Porky's been fielding 2-3 linkedin connection requests a week for the past two months from current MU seniors looking for jobs in NYC.
The one area that still hasn't yet recovered is return to offices. It's better than it was this time last year, but most suburban folk like Porky are only commuting to the office 2-3x per week, so businesses that are dependent on commuters are still struggling, although not to the same extent that they were a year or two ago.
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I'm just self aware. The meme doesn't fit here.
You made money the old fashioned way then, aina?
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You made money the old fashioned way then, aina?
Yes, capitalism.
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Porky concurs with Dgies and The Sultan. MU is not moving nor should it and it's urban location is its greatest strength!
That said, Heisenberg is absolutely correct in acknowledging WASH U in STL as a great example of a National University that is thriving in an extremely declining area. It's not just perceived to be a National University. It is one in every sense of the word. MU may perceive itself as a National University but isn't remotely close to one in Porky's opinion with 75% of all undergrads hailing from two states. Wash U actually brags that 70% of its undergrads grew up more than 500 miles from STL. MU isn't ever going to achieve that and that's ok. Unlike downtown STL though, downtown MKE seems to be thriving. Porky's been to MKE twice this year already and Downtown was packed both times and lots of new hotels have been built in the last few years as well. MU needs to branch out and attract a lot more students from other parts of the country. That doesn't mean MU is abandoning its commitment to MKE in general or it's inner city in particular. Porky would argue strongly that if MU adopted such a strategy, the city of MKE would be strengthened considerably and might be able to offer more scholarships for qualified inner city MKE students to attend MU. The stronger MU becomes the stronger MKE becomes!
Good post
But I remind everyone that every city has a hot trending neighborhood, and always will. Third Ward in Milwaukee, Fulton Market in Chicago, FiDi (Financial District) in NYC.
And it is a gigantic mistake to think that one hot neighborhood means all is well.
I'll quote (again) the Milwaukee Journal that shot down this belief.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2023/03/08/whats-path-for-milwaukee-to-reverse-population-decline-grow-again/69959649007/
Still, the optics of Milwaukee’s population decline can be deceiving. In some places, it looks and feels like the city is growing. The city saw an explosion of new apartment buildings and condominiums in the last two decades. The apartment building boom continues. Right now, construction is underway on a 44-story tower near the Milwaukee Art Museum. A 31-story apartment building is rising on the northwestern edge of the city’s Third Ward.
The number of occupied housing units in the city increased by 5,000 in the last decade. So, how can our population be declining?
The answer lies in shrinking household sizes in Milwaukee. Most of the new housing units in Milwaukee were smaller apartments with one or two people living in them. Citywide, the typical household size fell from 2.5 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2020.
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The single biggest problem for a northern city is the declining population. They all have it (see the first post in this thread). It means all northern cities are declining, just a matter of degree.
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And you are correct that 75% of MU students come from two areas that are in trouble, Chicagoland and WI. Both are falling behind the rest of the country and will continue to go forward
So, if the answer is MU will never move, and that is a reasonable argument, then either MU has to transcend the plight of being in a big northern city, like Wash U, or it will be worse in 5 to 10 years, and decline further in 15 to 20 years.
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Interesting subject. NYC may be a bad example since it's an international city that doesn't really have a downtown in the same sense as MKE, but it's largely recovered from the pandemic. On any given evening, almost all decent restaurants and bars are packed in both midtown and the residential areas of Manhattan, and the better parts of Brooklyn. Rents are the highest they've ever been and demand among young people and recent college grads to live in NYC is as strong as it's always been. Anecdotally, Porky's been fielding 2-3 linkedin connection requests a week for the past two months from current MU seniors looking for jobs in NYC.
The one area that still hasn't yet recovered is return to offices. It's better than it was this time last year, but most suburban folk like Porky are only commuting to the office 2-3x per week, so businesses that are dependent on commuters are still struggling, although not to the same extent that they were a year or two ago.
Office usage in NYC is 50% of pre-pandemic. And it is setting NYC back.
Bloomberg detailed this a few months ago.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-manhattan-work-from-home/
Remote Work Is Costing Manhattan More Than $12 Billion a Year
Three years into the pandemic, business leaders and city officials around the world are still trying just about everything to lure employees back into offices and revive local economies. But new data on in-person work analyzed by Bloomberg News show that in a number of cities across the US, Fridays at the office are dead. Mondays are a crapshoot. And returning to pre-pandemic work schedules looks like a lost cause.
The supply of NYC restaurants is way down versus pre-pandemic.
https://ny.eater.com/2023/2/3/23580317/nyc-restaurant-closings-february-2023#:~:text=Close%20to%20three%20years%20after,caused%20by%20the%20coronavirus%20pandemic.
Close to three years after New York’s first indoor dining shutdown, restaurants and bars continue to struggle. More than 4,500 have closed since the onset of the pandemic due to the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Since it’s difficult to track restaurant and bar closings, experts say that number is likely much higher and will take years to fully assess.
Rents are also a poor metric of the health of a city.
https://www.curbed.com/2023/01/nyc-real-estate-covid-more-apartments-higher-rent.html
New Yorkers Never Came ‘Flooding Back.’ Why Did Rents Go Up So Much?
Getting to the bottom of a COVID-era real estate mystery.
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So, if the answer is MU will never move, and that is a reasonable argument, then either MU has to transcend the plight of being in a big northern city, like Wash U, or it will be worse in 5 to 10 years, and decline further in 15 to 20 years.
On this, Porky could not agree more! Hopefully the powers that be at MU are listening to scoop!
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Office usage in NYC is 50% of pre-pandemic. And it is setting NYC back.
Bloomberg detailed this a few months ago.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-manhattan-work-from-home/
Remote Work Is Costing Manhattan More Than $12 Billion a Year
Three years into the pandemic, business leaders and city officials around the world are still trying just about everything to lure employees back into offices and revive local economies. But new data on in-person work analyzed by Bloomberg News show that in a number of cities across the US, Fridays at the office are dead. Mondays are a crapshoot. And returning to pre-pandemic work schedules looks like a lost cause.
The supply of NYC restaurants is way down versus pre-pandemic.
https://ny.eater.com/2023/2/3/23580317/nyc-restaurant-closings-february-2023#:~:text=Close%20to%20three%20years%20after,caused%20by%20the%20coronavirus%20pandemic.
Close to three years after New York’s first indoor dining shutdown, restaurants and bars continue to struggle. More than 4,500 have closed since the onset of the pandemic due to the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Since it’s difficult to track restaurant and bar closings, experts say that number is likely much higher and will take years to fully assess.
Rents are also a poor metric of the health of a city.
https://www.curbed.com/2023/01/nyc-real-estate-covid-more-apartments-higher-rent.html
New Yorkers Never Came ‘Flooding Back.’ Why Did Rents Go Up So Much?
Getting to the bottom of a COVID-era real estate mystery.
All fair points backed up by data. There was a similar article about the same issue in today's WSJ in fact. It's behind a subscription wall but scoopers who are WSJ subs can find that article in the link below:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/manhattans-top-office-landlord-looks-at-plan-b-20aa3198?page=1
At the end of the day, All Porky can do is report what Porky sees when Porky goes to work or visits a younger sibling, as Porky often does, who lives in Manhattan.
One thing to keep in mind.....just because the surviving restaurants, bars and theaters are full doesn't mean those customers are New Yorkers themselves. Many could very well be suburbanites like Porky.
The Bloomberg article is spot on though about Mondays and Fridays. Porky's company's official policy is 3x per week, and supposedly big brother is monitoring card swipes but most people are only coming in 2x per week and so far at least, not being punished for it.
The young and single folks in their 20's and early 30's that do live in the city are the only ones coming into our offices more than that which makes sense given most live in small apartments with roommates.
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I think he just wants to have a discussion.
The trap is that there is often a conclusion made with political undertones added.
The reality is that cities will continue to grow and rural America will become smaller and smaller. Trying to pin this trend on one thing or another is a fool's errand.
There are a myriad of reasons why populations grow in one place, and shrink in another, and then change back over time.
If you want my true opinion, Heise 2.0 has always presented himself as a conservative around here, and he is trying to correlate an uptick in crime with a decrease in urban populations. That is his political undertone, and his argument is wafer thin. But most people are simple. They want logic or data to all fit nicely into one box or another. It doesn't. You can't describe why anything as complex as population variation over time in a single sentence.
But "crime is bad in big scary cities and that's why people are fleeing in record numbers" is a great way to drive clicks to a website or draw eyes to a television. ESPECIALLY, if the person who is reading or watching has recently moved away from a city or is considering moving away from an urban area. It adds to their confirmation bias that they've made a smart decision. A little dopamine is released, and they run and tell their friends.
Please show me where I mentioned crime in my posts and how that became a central theme of my ideas. That's you attempted to portray me as a racist. And that makes you disgusting.
To help you, see the five or so posts above. The problem is the declining population.
See the second post quoting the mayor of Milwaukee, a city with a falling population will eventually die with a declining population. That is my concern. The population of Milwaukee and Chicago are declining, which is a big problem for an institution I care about ... MU.
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So, while I did not say my motivation for this thread, I will say it now ... it was the budget cuts at Depaul, and I worried that this is as much about being in a large northern city as the specific management decision at Depaul ... and a potential leading indicator for MU.
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And yes, your first sentence is 100% correct. Like everyone else, I come to a message board to discuss topics. Why exactly are you here? And why do you post replies?
And again, I do not appreciate you suggesting I'm a racist.
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Rents are also a poor metric of the health of a city.
https://www.curbed.com/2023/01/nyc-real-estate-covid-more-apartments-higher-rent.html
New Yorkers Never Came ‘Flooding Back.’ Why Did Rents Go Up So Much?
Getting to the bottom of a COVID-era real estate mystery.
You found a guy that writes for teh entertainment section of NYMag. (https://nymag.com/author/lane-brown/) Also, in his own article, he called his point a "conspiracy theory."
I get that you have strong opinions, but you need to get better at finding sources to back them up.
How about Manhattan rentals months of supply, listing inventory, and new leases (source for the charts below: https://millersamuel.com/charts-category/manhattan/)
(https://i.imgur.com/yuUz5g0.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/yuUz5g0.jpg)
Interesting how the inventory tracks with the prices. Seems like things are starting to normalize
(https://i.imgur.com/elQrk1u.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/elQrk1u.jpg)
And home sales have recovered nicely in Manhattan as well, moving as quick as ever in spite of rate spikes
(https://i.imgur.com/fBAz7ze.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/fBAz7ze.jpg)
Also, regarding restaurants returning to business centers due to WFH, here's a much better source with much better data: https://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/reports/nyc-sectors/restaurant
Business centers will have to pivot. They already are in major metros, with those former business centers spiking in population. Funny enough, it's much easier to convert the ancient buildings into condos/lofts than it is to convert the newer construction. Commercial real estate folks will have to figure it out. I can't imagine what they're going to do with those nightmarish suburban 4-story office parks once everyone's leases are up. Nobody wanted to be in those in the first place.
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You found a guy that writes for teh entertainment section of NYMag. (https://nymag.com/author/lane-brown/) Also, in his own article, he called his point a "conspiracy theory."
I get that you have strong opinions, but you need to get better at finding sources to back them up.
How about Manhattan rentals months of supply, listing inventory, and new leases (source for the charts below: https://millersamuel.com/charts-category/manhattan/)
(https://i.imgur.com/yuUz5g0.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/yuUz5g0.jpg)
Interesting how the inventory tracks with the prices. Seems like things are starting to normalize
(https://i.imgur.com/elQrk1u.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/elQrk1u.jpg)
And home sales have recovered nicely in Manhattan as well, moving as quick as ever in spite of rate spikes
(https://i.imgur.com/fBAz7ze.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/fBAz7ze.jpg)
Also, regarding restaurants returning to business centers due to WFH, here's a much better source with much better data: https://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/reports/nyc-sectors/restaurant
Business centers will have to pivot. They already are in major metros, with those former business centers spiking in population. Funny enough, it's much easier to convert the ancient buildings into condos/lofts than it is to convert the newer construction. Commercial real estate folks will have to figure it out. I can't imagine what they're going to do with those nightmarish suburban 4-story office parks once everyone's leases are up. Nobody wanted to be in those in the first place.
Chef’s kisses
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Good post
But I remind everyone that every city has a hot trending neighborhood, and always will. Third Ward in Milwaukee, Fulton Market in Chicago, FiDi (Financial District) in NYC.
And it is a gigantic mistake to think that one hot neighborhood means all is well.
I'll say it again!
If you want to revive struggling urban neighborhoods, promote an active and vibrant GAY AND LESBIAN COMMUNITY.
Where gays and lesbians have been allowed to prosper, the city around them prospers as well. They bring talent -- lots of it -- along with creativity and an understanding of the possible that stretches expectations.
In San Francisco a few years ago, enough straights were buying around the Castro that the gays were afraid they would soon lose their community. The gays provided the seed to upgrade the community and sure enough, the straights soon followed. Enough that the gays felt they were being bought out.
The conservative Christians have it all wrong -- it's in their economic interest to foster cooperation with the Gays! The sooner they do, the better our cities will be. Maybe we might even have understanding!
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I'll say it again!
If you want to revive struggling urban neighborhoods, promote an active and vibrant GAY AND LESBIAN COMMUNITY.
Where gays and lesbians have been allowed to prosper, the city around them prospers as well. They bring talent -- lots of it -- along with creativity and an understanding of the possible that stretches expectations.
In San Francisco a few years ago, enough straights were buying around the Castro that the gays were afraid they would soon lose their community. The gays provided the seed to upgrade the community and sure enough, the straights soon followed. Enough that the gays felt they were being bought out.
The conservative Christians have it all wrong -- it's in their economic interest to foster cooperation with the Gays! The sooner they do, the better our cities will be. Maybe we might even have understanding!
This is based on an incorrect belief of who is leaving cities and why they are declining.
It is families that are leaving the city. And more African-American families than White familes. African-American familes are terrible victims of crime (mainly black-on-black), and if they have the means, they leave. What is left is those that cannot leave. They are angry and desperate and the downward cycle continues.
Side note, where do many African-American families that leave large northern cities go?
https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-new-great-migration-is-bringing-black-americans-back-to-the-south/
A ‘New Great Migration’ is bringing Black Americans back to the South
Beginning early in the last century and continuing for decades, Black Americans took part in a “Great Migration” that saw millions move out of the South and into other parts of the country. But over the past 50 years, that historic event has reversed, as many returned to the South in a “New Great Migration.”
Now, new Census Bureau migration data released over the past year makes plain that this return movement is continuing, although with some dispersion to other parts of the country. This report builds on earlier migration analyses to incorporate new statistics from the Census Bureau’s 5-Year American Community Survey.
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A vibrant Gay community will not get families to stay, especially African-Americans. Affordability, jobs, schools, and safety will get them to stay. Trendy restaurants and art galleries are not going to fix these problems.
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Good thing you never mention crime in your posts…..
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The population of Milwaukee and Chicago are declining, which is a big problem for an institution I care about ... MU.
AGAIN, the population of the greater Chicago metro area is actually growing. Don’t you think Marquette gets students from Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park and Park Ridge?
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You found a guy that writes for teh entertainment section of NYMag. (https://nymag.com/author/lane-brown/) Also, in his own article, he called his point a "conspiracy theory."
I get that you have strong opinions, but you need to get better at finding sources to back them up.
How about Manhattan rentals months of supply, listing inventory, and new leases (source for the charts below: https://millersamuel.com/charts-category/manhattan/)
(https://i.imgur.com/yuUz5g0.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/yuUz5g0.jpg)
Interesting how the inventory tracks with the prices. Seems like things are starting to normalize
(https://i.imgur.com/elQrk1u.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/elQrk1u.jpg)
And home sales have recovered nicely in Manhattan as well, moving as quick as ever in spite of rate spikes
(https://i.imgur.com/fBAz7ze.jpg) (https://i.imgur.com/fBAz7ze.jpg)
Also, regarding restaurants returning to business centers due to WFH, here's a much better source with much better data: https://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/reports/nyc-sectors/restaurant
Business centers will have to pivot. They already are in major metros, with those former business centers spiking in population. Funny enough, it's much easier to convert the ancient buildings into condos/lofts than it is to convert the newer construction. Commercial real estate folks will have to figure it out. I can't imagine what they're going to do with those nightmarish suburban 4-story office parks once everyone's leases are up. Nobody wanted to be in those in the first place.
You're assuming that rising rents are only a good thing. That is not necessarily true.
Also, rents are rising everywhere, and it is creating a burden. It prices out the middle class and creates stress in cities
This is the opposite of affordable housing.
The average American tenant is rent-burdened. Here’s what that means for the economy.
For the first time in over 20 years, the typical American spends 30 percent of their income on housing.
By Adam Barnes and Gianna Melillo | Feb. 21, 2023
https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/infrastructure/3866947-renters-paying-30-percent-of-income-for-housing-crisis/
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AGAIN, the population of the greater Chicago metro area is actually growing. Don’t you think Marquette gets students from Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park and Park Ridge?
Not anymore ... crossed over to negative in 2022 after many years of falling growth rates
https://www.ibjonline.com/2023/04/02/91-of-102-illinois-counties-lose-population-in-2022-rural-counties-at-a-faster-rate/
(https://www.ibjonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/illinois-policy-institute-population-loss-map-1.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtefpJ-XsAExs5G?format=jpg&name=large)
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This website says otherwise:
https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22956/chicago/population
The current metro area population of Chicago in 2023 is 8,937,000, a 0.4% increase from 2022.
The metro area population of Chicago in 2022 was 8,901,000, a 0.27% increase from 2021.
The metro area population of Chicago in 2021 was 8,877,000, a 0.14% increase from 2020.
The metro area population of Chicago in 2020 was 8,865,000, a 0.03% increase from 2019.
And regardless, we're splitting hairs. The Chicago metro area has about 9 million residents. Even if it lost a million -- and I doubt it will in my lifetime -- it will still be huge fertile ground for Marquette and other area universities.
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Not anymore ... crossed over to negative in 2022 after many years of falling growth rates
https://www.ibjonline.com/2023/04/02/91-of-102-illinois-counties-lose-population-in-2022-rural-counties-at-a-faster-rate/
(https://www.ibjonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/illinois-policy-institute-population-loss-map-1.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtefpJ-XsAExs5G?format=jpg&name=large)
Psh. July 2022 is way too old of a data set. Damn the reporting periods and data collation.
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You just scolded Hards for assuming something about you. And then, once you didn't care for the facts that were presented, you resorted to a personal attack, which I certainly didn't do to you.
You are correct. That was unfair of me. I apologize.
I deleted my post. Feel free to delete the quote in your reply if you desire.
I will answer you this way (starting with what I wrote before) ...
----
I've attended lunches with Lovell, and he talked at length about how MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago (Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park, and Park Ridge).
I've seen you participate in threads in this forum about the same need.
Why does everyone think MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago? It is not because it is a bad place. It is because it is not growing.
So, you are correct the number of applications from suburban Chicago is not going to zero ... ever (as you said, even if it falls one million tomorrow). But it is not growing. And for MU to maintain its academic and reputational standards, it needs a growing pool of applications to maintain its selectivity.
That growing pool of applications will no longer come from the area that has supplied a growing pool of applications for many decades ... suburban Chicago.
This is a problem. Not a problem tomorrow. But a real and significant long-term planning problem.
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Please show me where I mentioned crime in my posts and how that became a central theme of my ideas. That's you attempted to portray me as a racist. And that makes you disgusting.
To help you, see the five or so posts above. The problem is the declining population.
See the second post quoting the mayor of Milwaukee, a city with a falling population will eventually die with a declining population. That is my concern. The population of Milwaukee and Chicago are declining, which is a big problem for an institution I care about ... MU.
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So, while I did not say my motivation for this thread, I will say it now ... it was the budget cuts at Depaul, and I worried that this is as much about being in a large northern city as the specific management decision at Depaul ... and a potential leading indicator for MU.
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And yes, your first sentence is 100% correct. Like everyone else, I come to a message board to discuss topics. Why exactly are you here? And why do you post replies?
And again, I do not appreciate you suggesting I'm a racist.
I think you're telling on yourself a bit here. I never brought race into the equation. You seem to be equating crime with race... which, believe it or not, is very very racist.
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I think you're telling on yourself a bit here. I never brought race into the equation. You seem to be equating crime with race... which, believe it or not, is very very racist.
You know what you did, everyone here knows what you did. And instead of apologizing, you just doubled down and now outright called me a racist, instead of implying it.
you’re a disgusting piece of sh!t.
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You know what you did, everyone here knows what you did. And instead of apologizing, you just doubled down and now outright called me a racist, instead of implying it.
you’re a disgusting piece of sh!t.
The only person you should be looking at is yourself.
I think the typed words speak well enough for themselves.
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This is based on an incorrect belief of who is leaving cities and why they are declining.
It is families that are leaving the city. And more African-American families than White familes. African-American familes are terrible victims of crime (mainly black-on-black), and if they have the means, they leave. What is left is those that cannot leave. They are angry and desperate and the downward cycle continues.
Side note, where do many African-American families that leave large northern cities go?
https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-new-great-migration-is-bringing-black-americans-back-to-the-south/
A ‘New Great Migration’ is bringing Black Americans back to the South
Brother Heise:
You miss my point.
Want to upgrade a declining neighborhood -- or even a slum?
Bring in the gays! It works!
Beginning early in the last century and continuing for decades, Black Americans took part in a “Great Migration” that saw millions move out of the South and into other parts of the country. But over the past 50 years, that historic event has reversed, as many returned to the South in a “New Great Migration.”
Now, new Census Bureau migration data released over the past year makes plain that this return movement is continuing, although with some dispersion to other parts of the country. This report builds on earlier migration analyses to incorporate new statistics from the Census Bureau’s 5-Year American Community Survey.
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A vibrant Gay community will not get families to stay, especially African-Americans. Affordability, jobs, schools, and safety will get them to stay. Trendy restaurants and art galleries are not going to fix these problems.
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A vibrant Gay community will not get families to stay, especially African-Americans. Affordability, jobs, schools, and safety will get them to stay. Trendy restaurants and art galleries are not going to fix these problems.
WTH do people mean by "vibrant gay community?" Most of the gay people I know just kind of live their lives like everyone else. Many are married and have children - and are treated just fine by their neighbors.
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Vibrant gay community means a gay community that's full of life, accepted and willing to make the same investment in a community that the straights are.
Vibrant gay community means a community where people are free to express themselves without fear of harassment, vandalism, hate crimes or ridicule. Where they can have a drag show if they want and not have a mice-trapping governor think the First Amendment stops at who you sleep with.
Yeah, I'm talking you, Ron!!!!
Vibrant gay community means going to a bar on a Saturday night and not having a nutcase play shoot-em-up because too much of society condemns you because they don't like who you sleep with! Or who you love!
Vibrant gay community means that when a gay or lesbian couple moves in next door, it's not a big deal! That they're welcomed by the straights.
That's a vibrant gay community!
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You are correct. That was unfair of me. I apologize.
I deleted my post. Feel free to delete the quote in your reply if you desire.
I will answer you this way (starting with what I wrote before) ...
----
I've attended lunches with Lovell, and he talked at length about how MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago (Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park, and Park Ridge).
I've seen you participate in threads in this forum about the same need.
Why does everyone think MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago? It is not because it is a bad place. It is because it is not growing.
So, you are correct the number of applications from suburban Chicago is not going to zero ... ever (as you said, even if it falls one million tomorrow). But it is not growing. And for MU to maintain its academic and reputational standards, it needs a growing pool of applications to maintain its selectivity.
That growing pool of applications will no longer come from the area that has supplied a growing pool of applications for many decades ... suburban Chicago.
This is a problem. Not a problem tomorrow. But a real and significant long-term planning problem.
Suburban Chicago actually is growing, albeit very slowly now. Even if it starts declining, though, it will not be a flood of departures. Millions upon millions of people -- and their high-school and college aged kids -- will still happily reside there for decades.
But yes, Marquette needs diversity. We agree on that.
Based on the information available right now, I do not see this as an existential threat, certainly not in my lifetime. But I don't pretend to be skilled at projecting demographics several decades into the future, so we'll see what happens -- or at least our kids and grandkids will see what happens.
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Fascinating question, to say the least.
I admit I left the Chicago area after living there for 44 years. Love the city and the region but had some serious issues that as I faced retirement, I felt a change was appropriate. That said, there's a couple things that have to be done to make Urban America grow again:
1) Education -- Fixing the education system is Job 1. If students can't read and write at grade level when they graduate, they're not going to be able to move on to college or sophisticated workplaces. They're stuck with no way out. Chicago, for example, spends twice the average per pupil as the state at large and the results are terrible. This is an area that can't be understated.
2) Crime -- Solve the education problem and you're on your way to solving the crime problem. Regardless, this must be dealt with in most major cities.
3) Investment -- Nothing makes a city hum like corporate headquarters. The merger and acquisition wave of the past 50 years has robbed cities of their core benefactors. Look at the number of corporate headquarters in Chicago when I arrived -- 1978 -- versus now. It's only getting worse. Without major corporate benefactors, there's less focus on building a cultural and social infrastructure. Milwaukee has Baird, NML and Harley Davidson, among others, and those are the firms that support the performing arts. Baird took a major stand for what became AmFam Park and it's there because the corporate headquarters firms stepped up.
4) Gay Community -- In every city I've ever lived in, urban renewal has been far less effective than an active and vibrant gay community. Chicago's Boystown, Nashville's East Side (Lockland Springs), San Francisco's Mission District all owe their present cache to the efforts of the gay and/or lesbian communities. The religious right needs to understand that if they want to reinvigorate their communities, they need to be welcoming and even encouraging to gay and lesbian people. They know how to rehab and they certainly know how to party!
Brother Dgies,
All the things you have mentioned are dependent on #1 and the primary problem is we have the wrong vision and overall goals. It starts with early childhood education. I'm talking ages 2-5. We should have a national goal that learning to read before age 5 is mandatory or you can't enroll in kindergarten.
I used to tutor kids ages 12-17 in both reading/writing and math in Chicago and DC. It's absolutely astounding that their skill levels are so behind. As far as I can tell nothing has changed. In lieu of this idea of free college what we should have is free or minimal cost early childhood education in our inner cities.
It can be done with the right vision and right incentives to get high quality pre K teachers. Everything starts with learning how to read. We have failed our children and our entire educational system needs to be re-examined imo. Start with one simple but vital goal. For those that do not have special needs reading by age 5 has to be mandatory. The two most important things that can be done for young children is learning how to swim and learning how to read.
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The two most important things that can be done for young children is learning how to swim and learning how to read.
I dont disagree with most of your post, but putting learning to read and learning to swim at anywhere the same level is kind of wild, unless you live in a balmy climate and have a pool in your backyard. For a kid growing up in the Midwest or Northern climates where pool/swimming weather is 3 months a year at best, I think there are far more important/pressing developmental goals.
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I dont disagree with most of your post, but putting learning to read and learning to swim at anywhere the same level is kind of wild, unless you live in a balmy climate and have a pool in your backyard. For a kid growing up in the Midwest or Northern climates where pool/swimming weather is 3 months a year at best, I think there are far more important/pressing developmental goals.
Kids drown constantly JWags. I'd have to look it up but I believe among young children it's the 2nd leading cause of accidental death. it's extremely important and we don't emphasize or talk about it nearly enough.
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Kids drown constantly JWags. I'd have to look it up but I believe among young children it's the 2nd leading cause of accidental death. it's extremely important and we don't emphasize or talk about it nearly enough.
Most kids are idiots
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Kids drown constantly JWags. I'd have to look it up but I believe among young children it's the 2nd leading cause of accidental death. it's extremely important and we don't emphasize or talk about it nearly enough.
Learning to swim is very important, but drowning is pretty far down the list of causes of child deaths.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2201761
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Learning to swim is very important, but drowning is pretty far down the list of causes of child deaths.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2201761
I meant accidental deaths. Kids need to learn how to swim.
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900 kids drown a year. 4,300 die from firearms.
But let's get all freaked out about swim lessons.
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900 kids drown a year. 4,300 die from firearms.
But let's get all freaked out about swim lessons.
That's not the point, nor am I freaking out.
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That's not the point, nor am I freaking out.
In addition to swimming lessons, kids need firearm lessons.
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In addition to swimming lessons, kids need firearm lessons.
Give every kid a life jacket and a kevlar vest
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Psh. July 2022 is way too old of a data set. Damn the reporting periods and data collation.
It's not an old data set, but it's a crappy publication using data published by the disreputable Illinois Policy Institute (a far-right think tank). Illinois Policy Institute says they're using Census estimate data, but I can only find that number on the Census bureau website using their "vintage analysis" approach to population estimates which has been off by as much as 500,000 people in Illinois as recently as 2020.
Did you know that the US Census Bureau has estimated Chicago & Illinois' population loss incredibly inaccurately every year thanks to those vintage estimates? Thankfully there are real counts every once in a while, and also the census bureau has been working to update their estimation methodology. It was interesting that the real census count in 2020 proved that Illinois grew by 250,000 instead of the census bureau estimates saying Illinois shrunk by 250,000 people. Here's an interesting article if you're interested - https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2023/3/31/23665433/census-bureau-illinois-population-estimates-raja-krishnamoorthi-column-rich-miller
The author of this piece in the Sun Times is Rich Miller. From his Wikipedia - Miller was a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times for 8 years before joining Crain's Chicago Business in 2014 as a columnist.[2] The Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois.
Seems trustworthy?
Compared to the article that Heisenberg shared written by "Editor" from the "Illinois Business Journal." The Illinois Business Journal seems to be run by Greg Hoskins (who owns 20+ small town papers in Southern Illinois), and has one editor, Melissa Crockett Meske. Melissa's credentials are that she's a communications strategist, "My bylines appear in publications throughout the United States including the Illinois Business Journal, Great Rivers & Routes Tourism Bureau (Southwestern Illinois) seasonal tourism guides, various RiverBend Growth Association publications including their annual Currents magazine." https://macmeske.com/
It would be nice if Heisenberg could find good sources to back up their opinions on things. The crappy sources make it seem like the arguments are intellectually dishonest? Pretty weird, honestly.
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Suburban Chicago actually is growing, albeit very slowly now. Even if it starts declining, though, it will not be a flood of departures. Millions upon millions of people -- and their high-school and college aged kids -- will still happily reside there for decades.
But yes, Marquette needs diversity. We agree on that.
Based on the information available right now, I do not see this as an existential threat, certainly not in my lifetime. But I don't pretend to be skilled at projecting demographics several decades into the future, so we'll see what happens -- or at least our kids and grandkids will see what happens.
Let's agree that 2022 Suburban Chicago population growth has now sunk to zero (you showed a slight increase, around 0.15%, and I showed a slight decrease of -0.15%. Let's round it to zero). Over the same time, the US population grew by 0.38%
Suburban Chicago's population has been ~2% larger since 2010. The US is ~9% larger over the same period.
Schools that do not rely on suburban Chicago as a primary source of students are seeing applications grow faster than MU. This allows schools everywhere else to increase their standards for acceptance faster than MU.
So, MU's standards will fall faster than everyone else. They will sink reputationally, and their ability to grow the university will also be impaired.
Again, why do I care about this? Let's look at another similar school that also relies on Suburban Chicago for their primary source of students, Depaul.
Their enrollment started sinking at least six years ago. For Depaul, this is not a problem decades into the future. It has already started. To assume MU can escape this same plight for decades is misplaced. For all we know, it has already started at MU.
(https://depauliaonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-08-at-4.42.44-PM-900x634.png)
That is unless MU can transcend its geographic constraints and become a truly national university. Happy to hear an argument as to why this is happening or about to happen.
It is short-sided to brush this problem off as it will largely occur after I die, so who cares. Responsible universities, and their trustees, care a great deal about long-term planning and need to deal with these problems now.
I know Lovell cared. He told me as much at more than one luncheon I attended., He is fully aware of the population decline and the challenges it poses.
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Let's agree that 2022 Suburban Chicago population growth has now sunk to zero (you showed a slight increase, around 0.15%, and I showed a slight decrease of -0.15%. Let's round it to zero). Over the same time, the US population grew by 0.38%
Suburban Chicago's population has been ~2% larger since 2010. The US is ~9% larger over the same period.
Schools that do not rely on suburban Chicago as students' primary source is seeing applications grow faster than MU everywhere else. This allows schools everywhere else to increase their standards for acceptance faster than MU.
So, MU's standards will fall faster than everyone else. They will sink reputationally, and their ability to grow the Unvoierity will also be impaired.
Again, why do I care about this? Let's look t another similar school that also relies on Suburban Chicago for their primary source of students, Depaul.
Their enrollment started sinking at least six years ago. For Depaul, this is not a problem decades into the future. It has already started. To assume MU can escape this same plight for decades is misplaced. For all we know, it has already started at MU.
(https://depauliaonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-08-at-4.42.44-PM-900x634.png)
That is unless MU can transcend its geographic constraints and become a truly national university. Happy to hear an argument as to why this is happening or about to happen.
It is short-sided to brush this problem off as it will largely occur after I die, so who cares. Responsible universities, and their trustees, care a great deal about long-term planning and need to deal with these problems now.
I know Lovell cared. He told me as much at more than one luncheon I attended., He is fully aware of the population decline and the challenges it poses.
Cool
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It's not an old data set, but it's a crappy publication using data published by the disreputable Illinois Policy Institute (a far-right think tank). Illinois Policy Institute says they're using Census estimate data, but I can only find that number on the Census bureau website using their "vintage analysis" approach to population estimates which has been off by as much as 500,000 people in Illinois as recently as 2020.
Did you know that the US Census Bureau has estimated Chicago & Illinois' population loss incredibly inaccurately every year thanks to those vintage estimates? Thankfully there are real counts every once in a while, and also the census bureau has been working to update their estimation methodology. It was interesting that the real census count in 2020 proved that Illinois grew by 250,000 instead of the census bureau estimates saying Illinois shrunk by 250,000 people. Here's an interesting article if you're interested - https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2023/3/31/23665433/census-bureau-illinois-population-estimates-raja-krishnamoorthi-column-rich-miller
The author of this piece in the Sun Times is Rich Miller. From his Wikipedia - Miller was a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times for 8 years before joining Crain's Chicago Business in 2014 as a columnist.[2] The Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois.
Seems trustworthy?
Compared to the article that Heisenberg shared written by "Editor" from the "Illinois Business Journal." The Illinois Business Journal seems to be run by Greg Hoskins (who owns 20+ small town papers in Southern Illinois), and has one editor, Melissa Crockett Meske. Melissa's credentials are that she's a communications strategist, "My bylines appear in publications throughout the United States including the Illinois Business Journal, Great Rivers & Routes Tourism Bureau (Southwestern Illinois) seasonal tourism guides, various RiverBend Growth Association publications including their annual Currents magazine." https://macmeske.com/
It would be nice if Heisenberg could find good sources to back up their opinions on things. The crappy sources make it seem like the arguments are intellectually dishonest? Pretty weird, honestly.
The census bureau is lying; anyone listening to them is a Fox News hater.
Instead, rely on a far-leftist- politician that says the census bureau is lying.
That is a good argument you have!
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But assuming it is correct. It would not be unique to Suburban Chicago; it will largely apply to the entire country. Everyone would see a bump higher, and nothing would change. Suburban Chicago continues to lose ground to everyone else, and anyone relying on Suburban Chicago, like a University looking for students, remains at a disadvantage.
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The census bureau is lying; anyone listening to them is a Fox News hater.
Instead, rely on a far-leftist- politician that says the census bureau is lying.
That is a good argument you have!
---
But assuming it is correct. It would not be unique to Suburban Chicago; it will largely apply to the entire country. Everyone would see a bump higher, and nothing would change. Suburban Chicago continues to lose ground to everyone else, and anyone relying on Suburban Chicago, like a University looking for students, remains at a disadvantage.
Man, you have brain rot
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Brother Dgies,
All the things you have mentioned are dependent on #1 and the primary problem is we have the wrong vision and overall goals. It starts with early childhood education. I'm talking ages 2-5. We should have a national goal that learning to read before age 5 is mandatory or you can't enroll in kindergarten.
I used to tutor kids ages 12-17 in both reading/writing and math in Chicago and DC. It's absolutely astounding that their skill levels are so behind. As far as I can tell nothing has changed. In lieu of this idea of free college what we should have is free or minimal cost early childhood education in our inner cities.
It can be done with the right vision and right incentives to get high quality pre K teachers. Everything starts with learning how to read. We have failed our children and our entire educational system needs to be re-examined imo. Start with one simple but vital goal. For those that do not have special needs reading by age 5 has to be mandatory. The two most important things that can be done for young children is learning how to swim and learning how to read.
1. Okay, so what happens to those kids? They get left behind?
2. Yes free childcare/learning... but let's make it everywhere, not just the problematic sounding, "Inner cities". Yikes.
3. I'm not going to crap on your swimming idea because it is an important life skill, but it shouldn't be a top priority.
I'll add that we need to treat our teachers much better than we do and spend the money on them to encourage our best and brightest to become and REMAIN teaching. We don't do that.
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Let's agree that 2022 Suburban Chicago population growth has now sunk to zero (you showed a slight increase, around 0.15%, and I showed a slight decrease of -0.15%. Let's round it to zero). Over the same time, the US population grew by 0.38%
Suburban Chicago's population has been ~2% larger since 2010. The US is ~9% larger over the same period.
Schools that do not rely on suburban Chicago as a primary source of students are seeing applications grow faster than MU. This allows schools everywhere else to increase their standards for acceptance faster than MU.
So, MU's standards will fall faster than everyone else. They will sink reputationally, and their ability to grow the university will also be impaired.
Again, why do I care about this? Let's look at another similar school that also relies on Suburban Chicago for their primary source of students, Depaul.
Their enrollment started sinking at least six years ago. For Depaul, this is not a problem decades into the future. It has already started. To assume MU can escape this same plight for decades is misplaced. For all we know, it has already started at MU.
(https://depauliaonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-08-at-4.42.44-PM-900x634.png)
That is unless MU can transcend its geographic constraints and become a truly national university. Happy to hear an argument as to why this is happening or about to happen.
It is short-sided to brush this problem off as it will largely occur after I die, so who cares. Responsible universities, and their trustees, care a great deal about long-term planning and need to deal with these problems now.
I know Lovell cared. He told me as much at more than one luncheon I attended., He is fully aware of the population decline and the challenges it poses.
We will agree to disagree on the threat to Marquette. Have a good one! (If you're willing to allow yourself to do so.)
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The census bureau is lying; anyone listening to them is a Fox News hater.
The Census Bureau would never provide incorrect data on Illinois' population, right?
Illinois suffered significant undercounting during the 2020 census, leading to the mistaken conclusion that the state lost residents over the previous ten years — when in reality it added more than a quarter of a million people and swelled to its largest population ever.
That’s the stunning revelation from a report the U.S. Census Bureau itself released on Thursday, admitting that its ten-year head counts were off in more than a dozen states.
Illinois’ purported population loss has become a talking point for everyone from former residents justifying their departure to political candidates using it to bash incumbents for policies they say are prompting a stampede out of the state.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/5/19/23131741/illinois-2020-census-undercount-population-gain-pritzker-welch-democrats-republican-trump
Third graph feels particularly relevant in this thread
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I dont disagree with most of your post, but putting learning to read and learning to swim at anywhere the same level is kind of wild, unless you live in a balmy climate and have a pool in your backyard. For a kid growing up in the Midwest or Northern climates where pool/swimming weather is 3 months a year at best, I think there are far more important/pressing developmental goals.
Maybe Muggs is thinking that 90% of the U.S. will be under water within a few years.
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Let's agree that 2022 Suburban Chicago population growth has now sunk to zero (you showed a slight increase, around 0.15%, and I showed a slight decrease of -0.15%. Let's round it to zero). Over the same time, the US population grew by 0.38%
Suburban Chicago's population has been ~2% larger since 2010. The US is ~9% larger over the same period.
Schools that do not rely on suburban Chicago as a primary source of students are seeing applications grow faster than MU. This allows schools everywhere else to increase their standards for acceptance faster than MU.
So, MU's standards will fall faster than everyone else. They will sink reputationally, and their ability to grow the university will also be impaired.
Again, why do I care about this? Let's look at another similar school that also relies on Suburban Chicago for their primary source of students, Depaul.
Their enrollment started sinking at least six years ago. For Depaul, this is not a problem decades into the future. It has already started. To assume MU can escape this same plight for decades is misplaced. For all we know, it has already started at MU.
(https://depauliaonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screen-Shot-2023-04-08-at-4.42.44-PM-900x634.png)
That is unless MU can transcend its geographic constraints and become a truly national university. Happy to hear an argument as to why this is happening or about to happen.
It is short-sided to brush this problem off as it will largely occur after I die, so who cares. Responsible universities, and their trustees, care a great deal about long-term planning and need to deal with these problems now.
I know Lovell cared. He told me as much at more than one luncheon I attended., He is fully aware of the population decline and the challenges it poses.
If those "part time faculty" are headcount and not FTE, the graph is pretty meaningless.
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The Census Bureau would never provide incorrect data on Illinois' population, right?
Illinois suffered significant undercounting during the 2020 census, leading to the mistaken conclusion that the state lost residents over the previous ten years — when in reality it added more than a quarter of a million people and swelled to its largest population ever.
That’s the stunning revelation from a report the U.S. Census Bureau itself released on Thursday, admitting that its ten-year head counts were off in more than a dozen states.
Illinois’ purported population loss has become a talking point for everyone from former residents justifying their departure to political candidates using it to bash incumbents for policies they say are prompting a stampede out of the state.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/5/19/23131741/illinois-2020-census-undercount-population-gain-pritzker-welch-democrats-republican-trump
Third graph feels particularly relevant in this thread
Yes, more left-wing politicians calling BS on professional statisticians because they don't like the answer.
Good argument
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Man, you have brain rot
Probably, but I do not think that the world is made up of statistics that agree with my view or the liars/Fox News Watchers.
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Learning to swim is very important, but drowning is pretty far down the list of causes of child deaths.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2201761
#BadData
What you linked to isn’t about children. It’s about people ages 1 (excludes those under 1) through 19 (includes many adult deaths).
An infant is a child. A 19 year old is not. Stop the lies!!!!
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If those "part time faculty" are headcount and not FTE, the graph is pretty meaningless.
If the black line keeps sinking, both bars are going down.
And how many other universities that rely on Suburban Chicago for enrollment have this same kind of black line, or will shortly?
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If the black line keeps sinking, both bars are going down.
And how many other universities that rely on Suburban Chicago for enrollment have this same kind of black line, or will shortly?
Two things:
The graph looks worse than it is due to scale.
And it takes time to reduce full time faculty, due to tenure and due to further specialization at the graduate levels. Part time faculty are used as student population rises and falls.
So the best thing to do would be to comparing student to faculty ratio by using the FTE of each.
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Yes, more left-wing politicians calling BS on professional statisticians because they don't like the answer.
Good argument
It was the Census Bureau, i.e. the professional statisticians, that made the correction, not politicians
Bad reading comprehension.
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DePaul's enrollment decline is mostly due to falling graduate-level enrollments. Transfer student enrollment and the softening of the undergraduate retention rate are also contributors, but at a significantly smaller rate.
Use that info as you wish to continue the pissing match.
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Two things:
The graph looks worse than it is due to scale.
And it takes time to reduce full time faculty, due to tenure and due to further specialization at the graduate levels. Part time faculty are used as student population rises and falls.
So the best thing to do would be to comparing student to faculty ratio by using the FTE of each.
Agree about the chart.
Depaul's enrollment From the chart
2017 = 22,769
2022 = 20,791
Loss = 1,978 (8.7%)
A major university showing five sequential years of enrollment decline now totaling almost 9% seems huge!
Why?
DePaul spokesperson Mary Hansen attributed it to "increased competition for students among universities and declining numbers of college-going students."
https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2022/06/13/illinois-undergraduate-enrollment-drops
So, why does the highlighted part not matter to MU?
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Probably, but I do not think that the world is made up of statistics that agree with my view or the liars/Fox News Watchers.
That was a nice response to an pretty boy remark by me. Good on you, sorry for losing my cool.
The statistics you shared are provably incorrect, but I suppose it's up to you to ignore the evidence. Even if that evidence is the census bureau saying that they're going to update their methodology because of how big of a miss they had specifically in Chicago.
Have a great weekend.
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#BadData
What you linked to isn’t about children. It’s about people ages 1 (excludes those under 1) through 19 (includes many adult deaths).
An infant is a child. A 19 year old is not. Stop the lies!!!!
My whole point was about young children and these people go to something completely tangential and disregard that learning to swim is very important for this age group.
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That was a nice response to an pretty boy remark by me. Good on you, sorry for losing my cool.
The statistics you shared are provably incorrect, but I suppose it's up to you to ignore the evidence. Even if that evidence is the census bureau saying that they're going to update their methodology because of how big of a miss they had specifically in Chicago.
Have a great weekend.
No problem
But I'll ask again, pretty much every state unhappy with the census is making the same argument. So if the Census' methodology is proven wrong, and everyone gets equally bumped higher, then nothing changes.
Or, is there a case to make Chicagoland methodology was wrong, then say, NYC? NY/NYC is screaming even louder about the census numbers.
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No problem
But I'll ask again, pretty much every state unhappy with the census is making the same argument. So if the Census' methodology is proven wrong, and everyone gets equally bumped higher, then nothing changes.
Or, is there a case to make Chicagoland methodology was wrong, then say, NYC? NY/NYC is screaming even louder about the census numbers.
The Census was correct, the estimations between censuses were incorrect by over 500,000 people in Illinois.
The estimates, the numbers you're using, have been very very wrong in Chicago/Illinois vs the counted numbers. The census bureau is trying to update their methodology to fix that issue. Other places have not been as wrong. I'm not expert, so I can't explain the "why" to you. That's why I linked an article written by a guy that's been digging into this for a few years.
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I'll add that we need to treat our teachers much better than we do and spend the money on them to encourage our best and brightest to become and REMAIN teaching. We don't do that.
At the risk of starting a war, we do treat our teachers well. Maybe in some rural and poor districts there are problems, but overall, no chance!
In Chicago, for example, the state and city spend an average of $30,000 per pupil on education. The state average is $15,000. Where do you think most of that goes? There is something materially wrong when we spend this kind of money on schools and our 11th graders cannot do basic math, read and write. It's only going to get worse now that the Teachers control City Hall.
In my old District, Community 128 in Libertyville and Vernon Hills, our median teacher salary is well over $100,000 annually. And the benefits they receive, including low-cost healthcare, extreme pension benefits (assuming the fund is solvent) and a vacation that most of us would call "retirement" are huge. They scream about grading papers et al, but in a job like mine, working 12-16 hour days is not uncommon. And the pay is comparable. They did great work -- my children were living proof of it -- but they're NOT, repeat, NOT treated poorly.
One of the major problems with urban education is we may be expecting too much from the schools. To be candid, my early childhood education was gained in the lap of my mother. Or sitting next to her as she read to me, and my brothers and sisters. My Dad did too and they both had expectations of us. They backed it with their effort and their sacrifice, both of which enabled four of their six children to attend and receive degrees from Marquette (the other two went to Catholic Universities in the Midwest).
When we had problems, my Mom or Dad took us to get help. In one case, that meant dealing with ADHD by driving across Nashville to treatments and meetings twice a week. In other cases, it meant simply sitting with us as we went to the pool. Or taking us to the forest and letting us go into the woods and explore.
The point is, when you have a child, a parent needs to take responsibility. The schools can and should be a partner in the effort but, to be candid, no one can expect a school to replace a parent. That doesn't mean we give up on struggling children with incompetent parents, but it means we get rid of a "if it feels good, do it" or "it's not in my plan" or "it's inconvenient" attitudes.
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Agree about the chart.
Depaul's enrollment From the chart
2017 = 22,769
2022 = 20,791
Loss = 1,978 (8.7%)
A major university showing five sequential years of enrollment decline now totaling almost 9% seems huge!
Why?
DePaul spokesperson Mary Hansen attributed it to "increased competition for students among universities and declining numbers of college-going students."
https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2022/06/13/illinois-undergraduate-enrollment-drops
So, why does the highlighted part not matter to MU?
Of course it does.
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I've attended lunches with Lovell, and he talked at length about how MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago (Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park, and Park Ridge).
I've seen you participate in threads in this forum about the same need.
Why does everyone think MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago? It is not because it is a bad place. It is because it is not growing.
So, you are correct the number of applications from suburban Chicago is not going to zero ... ever (as you said, even if it falls one million tomorrow). But it is not growing. And for MU to maintain its academic and reputational standards, it needs a growing pool of applications to maintain its selectivity.
That growing pool of applications will no longer come from the area that has supplied a growing pool of applications for many decades ... suburban Chicago.
This is a problem. Not a problem tomorrow. But a real and significant long-term planning problem.
Glad to hear this is on Lovell's radar. Porky just wishes they would actually DO something about it. It seems as though they're just thinking about it. The debate about whether the greater Chicagoland area is growing or not should be irrelevant as it relates to MU.
In Porky's view, geographic diversity is every bit as important....if not more important.....than racial and socio-economic diversity and a large university needs all three to truly thrive, so even if greater Chicagoland was projected to grow their overall population as well as their population of 18-22 year-olds by double digits for the next two decades, MU should still aggressively pursue geographic diversity if it wants to maintain is current position.
Porky can only speak for the metro NYC area, and to a lesser extent the Northeast but to call MU's recruitment efforts here abysmal would be generous. And before anyone cites the even more ominous demographic cliff facing the Northeast, Porky fully acknowledges that the population of college age students is declining precipitously here as well, but there are still a hell of a lot more of them here. It's the most densely populated part of the country by far and that's not going change anytime soon.
Porky has long suspected MU has eschewed more geographic diversity because that pursuit conflicts with MU's mission. They need to get over this. Yes, students that matriculate to MU from the coasts and south tend to come from wealthier families who can afford the increased cost of travel back and forth during breaks and summers. So what?????? Presumably these students' families qualify for significantly less aid and pay a higher percentage of sticker tuition. Wouldn't that help fund more aid for the less fortunate? What is Porky missing?
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Glad to hear this is on Lovell's radar. Porky just wishes they would actually DO something about it. It seems as though they're just thinking about it. The debate about whether the greater Chicagoland area is growing or not should be irrelevant as it relates to MU.
In Porky's view, geographic diversity is every bit as important....if not more important.....than racial and socio-economic diversity and a large university needs all three to truly thrive, so even if greater Chicagoland was projected to grow their overall population as well as their population of 18-22 year-olds by double digits for the next two decades, MU should still aggressively pursue geographic diversity if it wants to maintain is current position.
Porky can only speak for the metro NYC area, and to a lesser extent the Northeast but to call MU's recruitment efforts here abysmal would be generous. And before anyone cites the even more ominous demographic cliff facing the Northeast, Porky fully acknowledges that the population of college age students is declining precipitously here as well, but there are still a hell of a lot more of them here. It's the most densely populated part of the country by far and that's not going change anytime soon.
Porky has long suspected MU has eschewed more geographic diversity because that pursuit conflicts with MU's mission. They need to get over this. Yes, students that matriculate to MU from the coasts and south tend to come from wealthier families who can afford the increased cost of travel back and forth during breaks and summers. So what?????? Presumably these students' families qualify for significantly less aid and pay a higher percentage of sticker tuition. Wouldn't that help fund more aid for the less fortunate? What is Porky missing?
They are doing something about it. They are intentionally focusing on students in majors that traditionally pay more in net tuition (business, nursing, engineering) and don't mind if they get smaller in the process. It's a smart strategy that a lot of schools are following.
Geographic diversity is a high-cost game. You just put yourself into competition with schools that are going to drive that net tuition down. It has nothing to do with mission.
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At the risk of starting a war, we do treat our teachers well. Maybe in some rural and poor districts there are problems, but overall, no chance!
In Chicago, for example, the state and city spend an average of $30,000 per pupil on education. The state average is $15,000. Where do you think most of that goes? There is something materially wrong when we spend this kind of money on schools and our 11th graders cannot do basic math, read and write. It's only going to get worse now that the Teachers control City Hall.
In my old District, Community 128 in Libertyville and Vernon Hills, our median teacher salary is well over $100,000 annually. And the benefits they receive, including low-cost healthcare, extreme pension benefits (assuming the fund is solvent) and a vacation that most of us would call "retirement" are huge. They scream about grading papers et al, but in a job like mine, working 12-16 hour days is not uncommon. And the pay is comparable. They did great work -- my children were living proof of it -- but they're NOT, repeat, NOT treated poorly.
One of the major problems with urban education is we may be expecting too much from the schools. To be candid, my early childhood education was gained in the lap of my mother. Or sitting next to her as she read to me, and my brothers and sisters. My Dad did too and they both had expectations of us. They backed it with their effort and their sacrifice, both of which enabled four of their six children to attend and receive degrees from Marquette (the other two went to Catholic Universities in the Midwest).
When we had problems, my Mom or Dad took us to get help. In one case, that meant dealing with ADHD by driving across Nashville to treatments and meetings twice a week. In other cases, it meant simply sitting with us as we went to the pool. Or taking us to the forest and letting us go into the woods and explore.
The point is, when you have a child, a parent needs to take responsibility. The schools can and should be a partner in the effort but, to be candid, no one can expect a school to replace a parent. That doesn't mean we give up on struggling children with incompetent parents, but it means we get rid of a "if it feels good, do it" or "it's not in my plan" or "it's inconvenient" attitudes.
Cool story bro. Average Salary in Milwaukee Public Schools was $66,000. In rural Poynette, WI they're catching around $50,000. Do you think that is enough money to live on as a college graduate? Would you sign up for that? Plus teachers are 100% treated like crap. They're subjected to a hostile work environment where their work is criticized non stop, they're accused of misconduct, and literally have a chance at being shot dead.
https://publicstaffreports.dpi.wi.gov/PubStaffReport/Public/PublicReport/TeacherSalaryReport You can look up any district in Wisconsin if you choose.
Libertyville and Vernon Hills are wealthy suburbs. People MOVE to those places FOR their schools. You named two places that teachers DREAM of teaching. Well unfortunately, there is this thing called reality and in the United States of America we still have to educate every student. Everyone that walks through the door. Every district has different needs, and different challenges.
Also, respectfully, you're old. You grew up in a time where parents had time to raise their children and spend time with them. You clearly came from an an extremely privileged background. Not everyone has that time or has that ability to impact their child's lives. Even the children you've raised were raised in a different period of time. This constant harping from people about how 'it starts at home' is so incredibly stupid. How can anything start at home when the parents and more often single parent can't afford to pay for necessities. Raising a child in 2023 is reported to be around $310,000. In 1980 the cost was approx a quarter of that. In that period of time real wages have not increased four fold. So expecting a parent to raise a child as you have or you were raised is not as simple as 'it starts at home'. Not every parent has a spouse. Not every parent works a 9-5 job. Not every parent has family near them to help with child care. And also in reality, many of those parents who are trying their best alone come home from work exhausted. Again, the world has changed drastically since you've raised your children.
I could go on and on for hours about how your age is showing in your post, but I think by you get my point.
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Hards… having a child is a choice… so is taking out student debt. If you’re not cool with the economics, you need not do it.
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Hards… having a child is a choice… so is taking out student debt. If you’re not cool with the economics, you need not do it.
Having a child has always been a choice. But 50 years ago, having an unplanned/unexpected child wasn't the economic hurdle it is now.
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Cool story bro. Average Salary in Milwaukee Public Schools was $66,000. In rural Poynette, WI they're catching around $50,000. Do you think that is enough money to live on as a college graduate? Would you sign up for that? Plus teachers are 100% treated like crap. They're subjected to a hostile work environment where their work is criticized non stop, they're accused of misconduct, and literally have a chance at being shot dead.
https://publicstaffreports.dpi.wi.gov/PubStaffReport/Public/PublicReport/TeacherSalaryReport You can look up any district in Wisconsin if you choose.
Libertyville and Vernon Hills are wealthy suburbs. People MOVE to those places FOR their schools. You named two places that teachers DREAM of teaching. Well unfortunately, there is this thing called reality and in the United States of America we still have to educate every student. Everyone that walks through the door. Every district has different needs, and different challenges.
Also, respectfully, you're old. You grew up in a time where parents had time to raise their children and spend time with them. You clearly came from an an extremely privileged background. Not everyone has that time or has that ability to impact their child's lives. Even the children you've raised were raised in a different period of time. This constant harping from people about how 'it starts at home' is so incredibly stupid. How can anything start at home when the parents and more often single parent can't afford to pay for necessities. Raising a child in 2023 is reported to be around $310,000. In 1980 the cost was approx a quarter of that. In that period of time real wages have not increased four fold. So expecting a parent to raise a child as you have or you were raised is not as simple as 'it starts at home'. Not every parent has a spouse. Not every parent works a 9-5 job. Not every parent has family near them to help with child care. And also in reality, many of those parents who are trying their best alone come home from work exhausted. Again, the world has changed drastically since you've raised your children.
I could go on and on for hours about how your age is showing in your post, but I think by you get my point.
Bullsh1t with your characterization of most teachers.
I know tons of teachers who love or loved their jobs, retire extremely well, and are happy as a clam.
Bullsh1t.
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Bullsh1t with your characterization of most teachers.
I know tons of teachers who love or loved their jobs, retire extremely well, and are happy as a clam.
Bullsh1t.
i will second this chili. i have tons of teachers as patients. my kindergarten teacher is a patient plus many others throughout my school years. yes, there are challenges, just as with most other professions, but most speak about the rewards. i've always said that i couldn't do the job that they do...that's why i don't. same for nursing homes and many other areas of work.
if they were concerned with the pay, find something else that will pay what you need or want.
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Bullsh1t with your characterization of most teachers.
I know tons of teachers who love or loved their jobs, retire extremely well, and are happy as a clam.
Bullsh1t.
Say you're someone who hasn't talked to an actual teacher in 20 years without actually saying you haven't talked to a actual teacher in 20 years.
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Say you're someone who hasn't talked to an actual teacher in 20 years without actually saying you haven't talked to a actual teacher in 20 years.
What do teachers have to complain about? They’re highly valued in this country.
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Hards… having a child is a choice… so is taking out student debt. If you’re not cool with the economics, you need not do it.
Thanks, I'm aware. I have neither.
The Neoliberal society we all live in is predicated on replacement population growth at a minimum. Is your solution to not have children? Not take on debt?
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Bullsh1t with your characterization of most teachers.
I know tons of teachers who love or loved their jobs, retire extremely well, and are happy as a clam.
Bullsh1t.
Yet, I have a family full of them. And the retired ones would no longer recommend it to the young ones.
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Brother Dgies,
All the things you have mentioned are dependent on #1 and the primary problem is we have the wrong vision and overall goals. It starts with early childhood education. I'm talking ages 2-5. We should have a national goal that learning to read before age 5 is mandatory or you can't enroll in kindergarten.
I used to tutor kids ages 12-17 in both reading/writing and math in Chicago and DC. It's absolutely astounding that their skill levels are so behind. As far as I can tell nothing has changed. In lieu of this idea of free college what we should have is free or minimal cost early childhood education in our inner cities.
It can be done with the right vision and right incentives to get high quality pre K teachers. Everything starts with learning how to read. We have failed our children and our entire educational system needs to be re-examined imo. Start with one simple but vital goal. For those that do not have special needs reading by age 5 has to be mandatory. The two most important things that can be done for young children is learning how to swim and learning how to read.
I am very on board with your idea of increasing access to free or minimal cost early childhood education in all areas. It's something that is sorely needed. I agree that we should have a goal of children reading by age five, but I'm not sure about your "can't enroll in kindergarten" suggestion. Children who are behind on literacy need extra support, not to be punished. Maybe mandating some sort of supplemental reading program that can be completed in Kindergarten.
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Cool story bro. Average Salary in Milwaukee Public Schools was $66,000. In rural Poynette, WI they're catching around $50,000. Do you think that is enough money to live on as a college graduate? Would you sign up for that? Plus teachers are 100% treated like crap. They're subjected to a hostile work environment where their work is criticized non stop, they're accused of misconduct, and literally have a chance at being shot dead.
https://publicstaffreports.dpi.wi.gov/PubStaffReport/Public/PublicReport/TeacherSalaryReport You can look up any district in Wisconsin if you choose.
Libertyville and Vernon Hills are wealthy suburbs. People MOVE to those places FOR their schools. You named two places that teachers DREAM of teaching. Well unfortunately, there is this thing called reality and in the United States of America we still have to educate every student. Everyone that walks through the door. Every district has different needs, and different challenges.
Also, respectfully, you're old. You grew up in a time where parents had time to raise their children and spend time with them. You clearly came from an an extremely privileged background. Not everyone has that time or has that ability to impact their child's lives. Even the children you've raised were raised in a different period of time. This constant harping from people about how 'it starts at home' is so incredibly stupid. How can anything start at home when the parents and more often single parent can't afford to pay for necessities. Raising a child in 2023 is reported to be around $310,000. In 1980 the cost was approx a quarter of that. In that period of time real wages have not increased four fold. So expecting a parent to raise a child as you have or you were raised is not as simple as 'it starts at home'. Not every parent has a spouse. Not every parent works a 9-5 job. Not every parent has family near them to help with child care. And also in reality, many of those parents who are trying their best alone come home from work exhausted. Again, the world has changed drastically since you've raised your children.
I could go on and on for hours about how your age is showing in your post, but I think by you get my point.
Oh good grief.
About the only thing you didn't say was that I was a 1 percenter (I'm not), a Trumper (also, no) and a comic book (Richie Rich) was written about me. Again, no.
If having parents that cared about you, that wanted the best for you and sacrificed for you and your brothers and sisters is old fashioned or privileged, then I'm guilty and God Help Me, I hope I was as good to my children as my parents were to me. As to education, my parents gave up a lot to send us to Catholic schools in Nashville and Marquette. Maybe, if my Dad was less successful, we might have gone to the University of Tennessee or Middle Tennessee State due to financial pressures, but we would have gone to college. Period. Because that's how you create a foundation for your children. Period. And we would have made the most of it.
There's a few people in Scoop who knew my parents and I suspect they'd tell you the same think I am -- they were great people who cared deeply about the people and the communities they lived in. That's not old fashioned or privileged. That's called being Catholic and respecting the Great Commandment, "Love thy Neighbor as Thyself..."
As to me being old, give me a break. Caring is ageless and at the core of good parenting. You do things because you care, not because you have the resources to do so. Sometimes the fight is harder than it should be, but as a parent you can't quit and make an excuse that the time or resources aren't there. If you believe that, you should never have had children.
My children were orphans who lived in conditions few Americans have ever seen. Both had severe learning disabilities. They were adopted in the late 1990s. Which means they were out of high school less than 10 years ago. Yes, Vernon Hiils and Libertyville are good school districts. But when you have teachers who don't want to teach your children, you have a battle on your hands -- which we did! The Middle School wanted to social promote one of my children who at one point was struggling. They thought we would be pushovers until, during an IEP session, we called them out and demanded more. We scared the hell out of them because we knew what they were doing and it forced them to act. The teachers and administrators weren't used to college educated parents they couldn't buffalo in an IEP session. That child has a college degree from an accredited national university.
That's called parenting.
Another child was warehoused in a Belarusian orphanage for 2.5 years. She couldn't speak in Russian much less English when we completed the adoption. These are leaning disabilities far beyond anything anyone else I ever knew had to confront. But our calling -- our vocation if you will -- was to raise her -- and we did. When a high school teacher, in front of my child, told her we were expecting too much from her and that we had to expect low achievement from her, I blew! The result was my child looked at me coming out the door of the school and said, "thank you, Dad." That child too, has a college degree.
That's called parenting!
Neither my wife nor I were perfect parents. Far from it! But we were and still are committed to our children. There's a lot of people in this world who just get by who feel exactly the same way. They were given a responsibility and wrapped themselves in it. They accepted the fact that they have an obligation and they do the best they can every day. I'm not saying we don't need pre-school and we don't need to work with at-risk children. My late mother, who designed a kindergarten curriculum that formed one basis for what's still used in Tennessee, would come back and haunt me if I said otherwise. But the schools can't be parents either.
As parents, my wife and I had some tough days with our children. But the way we handled it was something that became the core of the eulogy at my Father's funeral and is the basis for good parenting:
Never Give Up!
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Oh good grief.
About the only thing you didn't say was that I was a 1 percenter (I'm not), a Trumper (also, no) and a comic book (Richie Rich) was written about me. Again, no.
If having parents that cared about you, that wanted the best for you and sacrificed for you and your brothers and sisters is old fashioned or privileged, then I'm guilty and God Help Me, I hope I was as good to my children as my parents were to me. As to education, my parents gave up a lot to send us to Catholic schools in Nashville and Marquette. Maybe, if my Dad was less successful, we might have gone to the University of Tennessee or Middle Tennessee State due to financial pressures, but we would have gone to college. Period. Because that's how you create a foundation for your children. Period. And we would have made the most of it.
There's a few people in Scoop who knew my parents and I suspect they'd tell you the same think I am -- they were great people who cared deeply about the people and the communities they lived in. That's not old fashioned or privileged. That's called being Catholic and respecting the Great Commandment, "Love thy Neighbor as Thyself..."
As to me being old, give me a break. Caring is ageless and at the core of good parenting. You do things because you care, not because you have the resources to do so. Sometimes the fight is harder than it should be, but as a parent you can't quit and make an excuse that the time or resources aren't there. If you believe that, you should never have had children.
My children were orphans who lived in conditions few Americans have ever seen. Both had severe learning disabilities. They were adopted in the late 1990s. Which means they were out of high school less than 10 years ago. Yes, Vernon Hiils and Libertyville are good school districts. But when you have teachers who don't want to teach your children, you have a battle on your hands -- which we did! The Middle School wanted to social promote one of my children who at one point was struggling. They thought we would be pushovers until, during an IEP session, we called them out and demanded more. We scared the hell out of them because we knew what they were doing and it forced them to act. The teachers and administrators weren't used to college educated parents they couldn't buffalo in an IEP session. That child has a college degree from an accredited national university.
That's called parenting.
Another child was warehoused in a Belarusian orphanage for 2.5 years. She couldn't speak in Russian much less English when we completed the adoption. These are leaning disabilities far beyond anything anyone else I ever knew had to confront. But our calling -- our vocation if you will -- was to raise her -- and we did. When a high school teacher, in front of my child, told her we were expecting too much from her and that we had to expect low achievement from her, I blew! The result was my child looked at me coming out the door of the school and said, "thank you, Dad." That child too, has a college degree.
That's called parenting!
Neither my wife nor I were perfect parents. Far from it! But we were and still are committed to our children. There's a lot of people in this world who just get by who feel exactly the same way. They were given a responsibility and wrapped themselves in it. They accepted the fact that they have an obligation and they do the best they can every day. I'm not saying we don't need pre-school and we don't need to work with at-risk children. My late mother, who designed a kindergarten curriculum that formed one basis for what's still used in Tennessee, would come back and haunt me if I said otherwise. But the schools can't be parents either.
As parents, my wife and I had some tough days with our children. But the way we handled it was something that became the core of the eulogy at my Father's funeral and is the basis for good parenting:
Never Give Up!
Some people talk the talk, others walk the walk. Brother dries, you know of what you speak. I’m proud to call you brother.
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Thanks, I'm aware. I have neither.
Praise Jesus.
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Yet, I have a family full of them. And the retired ones would no longer recommend it to the young ones.
I too have a family full of teachers. They love/loved the profession.
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Say you're someone who hasn't talked to an actual teacher in 20 years without actually saying you haven't talked to a actual teacher in 20 years.
Huh?
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I too have a family full of teachers. They love/loved the profession.
Every teacher I know - and I know some active teachers (not retirees) quite well - still loves teaching children.
But nearly everything else about the job has become worse - less support from parents, administrators and school board;, the politicalization of what they teach; the incessant union-bashing; the excessive focus on standardized testing; frequent shifts in curriculum with little teacher input, etc.
A first-grade teacher I know recently had a student's grandmother approach at an open house and demand an explanation about what she's teaching about critical race theory.
I will say I've never heard these teachers complain about their compensation, but they're all from the suburbs and in the upper strata when it comes to that.
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Every complaint I hear from teachers about compensation is always crouched in the working conditions that you mention Pak.
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Who doesn’t have a gripe about their job?
To characterize all teachers as holistically unhappy is patently false, and agenda driven, period.
One beef teachers have that I think is 100% legit is how Scott Walker undermined the teacher’s union. If change was needed, he should have done it differently. His method was absolutely wrong.
The insurance company that had a stranglehold on medical insurance contracts, WEA, had a clause that kept school districts from even shopping their insurance. Once Walker got the unions out, school districts got to shop their business and saved tons.
So yes, change was needed. But Walker was foolish for the tactics he used. He got what he deserved.
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Who doesn’t have a gripe about their job?
To characterize all teachers as holistically unhappy is patently false, and agenda driven, period.
One beef teachers have that I think is 100% legit is how Scott Walker undermined the teacher’s union. If change was needed, he should have done it differently. His method was absolutely wrong.
The insurance company that had a stranglehold on medical insurance contracts, WEA, had a clause that kept school districts from even shopping their insurance. Once Walker got the unions out, school districts got to shop their business and saved tons.
So yes, change was needed. But Walker was foolish for the tactics he used. He got what he deserved.
Yes. These clearly are just job gripes and you clearly aren’t agenda driven. 🙄🙄🙄
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Yes. These clearly are just job gripes and you clearly aren’t agenda driven. 🙄🙄🙄
Lol. Pot, meet kettle.
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Why do people think there has been a dramatic drop in the number of students enrolling in teacher education programs?
https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/fewer-people-are-getting-teacher-degrees-prep-programs-sound-the-alarm/2022/03
Why do people think that public school districts that used to have their pick of job applicants, now will take pretty much anyone to fill a classroom DESPITE many of them decreasing in student population?
https://www.axios.com/2022/08/14/teacher-staffing-shortage-incentives-back-to-school
Why do you think teacher retirements have accelerated? Pretty much every teacher I know who CAN retire has done so despite being nowhere near eligible to earn social security.
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/01/1076943883/teachers-quitting-burnout
And the problem is going to get worse. Young teachers are quitting the profession early and finding other things to do. They are overworked, dealing with parents and lack mentors because they're either out the door or just too overworked.
To write off these trends as mere "job gripes" is insane. There has been growing fundamental disrespect of the teaching profession going on for years. This isn't an "agenda." These are absolute facts.
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::)
Hope you didn’t hurt yourself with all that “heavy lifting”.
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::)
Hope you didn’t hurt yourself with all that “heavy lifting”.
Says the guy who uses the "but my friends and family are teachers" line.
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Well, they are.
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Well, they are.
Cool
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Well, they are.
And they are anecdotes. You have been provided with anecdotes that show the opposite so at best that's a wash. You have now been provided with data that shows concerning trends, do you have any data that counters?
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And they are anecdotes. You have been provided with anecdotes that show the opposite so at best that's a wash. You have now been provided with data that shows concerning trends, do you have any data that counters?
Data from Sultan. Whooopeeee
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Why do people think there has been a dramatic drop in the number of students enrolling in teacher education programs?
https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/fewer-people-are-getting-teacher-degrees-prep-programs-sound-the-alarm/2022/03
Why do people think that public school districts that used to have their pick of job applicants, now will take pretty much anyone to fill a classroom DESPITE many of them decreasing in student population?
https://www.axios.com/2022/08/14/teacher-staffing-shortage-incentives-back-to-school
Why do you think teacher retirements have accelerated? Pretty much every teacher I know who CAN retire has done so despite being nowhere near eligible to earn social security.
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/01/1076943883/teachers-quitting-burnout
And the problem is going to get worse. Young teachers are quitting the profession early and finding other things to do. They are overworked, dealing with parents and lack mentors because they're either out the door or just too overworked.
To write off these trends as mere "job gripes" is insane. There has been growing fundamental disrespect of the teaching profession going on for years. This isn't an "agenda." These are absolute facts.
Feelings don’t care about your facts.
People that don’t believe the teaching profession is in a perilous position right now are whistling in the dark
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Data from Sultan. Whooopeeee
Yep. Anyone can fake a webpage.
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Oh good grief...
Dgies, if I'm understanding your thesis correctly, it sounds like you believe that more responsibility needs to be placed on the parents for the education of their children. I don't think anyone can argue with you. Engaged parents committed to their children's education are a if not the top predictor of student success. However, I think there's some factors you are overlooking.
First, it sounds like you were a 1%er in terms of quality of parent. You were blessed with phenomenal parents who raised you well. The challenge is, not everyone is blessed in the same way. Based on your description, most people have/had worse parents than you did and many have parents who are abusive or close to it. It also sounds like your parents were at least financially stable, if not a little more than that. That helps as well. You are not wrong to say that parents should do more and just be better parents, but the reality is, there is nothing we can do about that. People who are not good parents will continue to become parents, that can't be stopped unless you want the government policing who can and can't have children. Since this is true, we are always going to have children whose parents are not stepping up enough whether because they are unengaged or because they engaged but are overwhelmed due to a lack of resources. I don't think the proper response is to throw up our hands and say "your parent should be doing more". I think the right response is to say "your parents should be doing more", try to engage those parents, and provide the children with as quality of education options as possible so that those children can succeed in spite of who their parents are. I'll also add that there's a cyclical effect here. Children often grow up to have a similar parenting style to their parents. You had wonderful parents and became a wonderful parent yourself. Most of that is on you but I'm sure you would agree that your parent's example showed you the way. I work in a field where I interact with people accused of all kinds of evil and abuse. In my work, I often get to meet the parents of these individuals. I'll just say that often you can tell where they learned their abusive behavior. This of course isn't a rule, good parents sometimes raise future bad parents and vice versa. Mrs. TAMU grew up in an abusive home and has become an amazing parent. She would tell you that education played a huge role in that.
Second, there's the reality that while parenting is important and may even be the most important factor, parents just don't spend that much time with their kids, especially in households where both parents work. Mrs. TAMU and I both work, we could not afford to live on just one of our salaries without significant downsizing. TAMU Jr. wakes up at 7am and we usually have her out the door to daycare by 7:30am. We pick her up from daycare at 5:30pm and she is usually in bed by 8:30pm. We spend 4 hours with her on weekdays and those four hours include us cooking, cleaning, driving her to and from daycare, giving her a bath, getting her ready for bed, swim lessons once a week (shout out to Muggsy), one other lesson once a week (currently it's gymnastics), as well as doing any other number of things that needs to be done where we might not be giving her our undivided attention. Daycare gets her for 9 hours on weekdays, more than double what we do. Now we try to make us much of our weekend as we can about focusing on TAMU Jr. but even with that it ends up being that daycare gets her about as much as we do. I think it will only get worse as she gets older and joins more clubs and sports or gets an afterschool job. We also have a second kid on the way so our attention is going to have to be split starting in a few months. I'd like to think that Mrs. TAMU and I are fantastic parents, and TAMU Jr is quite simply the best, but reality is that our parenting will only take her so far given time constraints. Quality education makes a huge difference.
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Oh good grief.
About the only thing you didn't say was that I was a 1 percenter (I'm not), a Trumper (also, no) and a comic book (Richie Rich) was written about me. Again, no.
If having parents that cared about you, that wanted the best for you and sacrificed for you and your brothers and sisters is old fashioned or privileged, then I'm guilty and God Help Me, I hope I was as good to my children as my parents were to me. As to education, my parents gave up a lot to send us to Catholic schools in Nashville and Marquette. Maybe, if my Dad was less successful, we might have gone to the University of Tennessee or Middle Tennessee State due to financial pressures, but we would have gone to college. Period. Because that's how you create a foundation for your children. Period. And we would have made the most of it.
There's a few people in Scoop who knew my parents and I suspect they'd tell you the same think I am -- they were great people who cared deeply about the people and the communities they lived in. That's not old fashioned or privileged. That's called being Catholic and respecting the Great Commandment, "Love thy Neighbor as Thyself..."
As to me being old, give me a break. Caring is ageless and at the core of good parenting. You do things because you care, not because you have the resources to do so. Sometimes the fight is harder than it should be, but as a parent you can't quit and make an excuse that the time or resources aren't there. If you believe that, you should never have had children.
My children were orphans who lived in conditions few Americans have ever seen. Both had severe learning disabilities. They were adopted in the late 1990s. Which means they were out of high school less than 10 years ago. Yes, Vernon Hiils and Libertyville are good school districts. But when you have teachers who don't want to teach your children, you have a battle on your hands -- which we did! The Middle School wanted to social promote one of my children who at one point was struggling. They thought we would be pushovers until, during an IEP session, we called them out and demanded more. We scared the hell out of them because we knew what they were doing and it forced them to act. The teachers and administrators weren't used to college educated parents they couldn't buffalo in an IEP session. That child has a college degree from an accredited national university.
That's called parenting.
Another child was warehoused in a Belarusian orphanage for 2.5 years. She couldn't speak in Russian much less English when we completed the adoption. These are leaning disabilities far beyond anything anyone else I ever knew had to confront. But our calling -- our vocation if you will -- was to raise her -- and we did. When a high school teacher, in front of my child, told her we were expecting too much from her and that we had to expect low achievement from her, I blew! The result was my child looked at me coming out the door of the school and said, "thank you, Dad." That child too, has a college degree.
That's called parenting!
Neither my wife nor I were perfect parents. Far from it! But we were and still are committed to our children. There's a lot of people in this world who just get by who feel exactly the same way. They were given a responsibility and wrapped themselves in it. They accepted the fact that they have an obligation and they do the best they can every day. I'm not saying we don't need pre-school and we don't need to work with at-risk children. My late mother, who designed a kindergarten curriculum that formed one basis for what's still used in Tennessee, would come back and haunt me if I said otherwise. But the schools can't be parents either.
As parents, my wife and I had some tough days with our children. But the way we handled it was something that became the core of the eulogy at my Father's funeral and is the basis for good parenting:
Never Give Up!
I never called you those thing because I don't believe them to be true, and it's irrelevant. What I called you was old and from another time, and the rest of your response only affirmed my beliefs. I don't believe you to be a bad person or a bad parent. Quite the opposite. You've had every opportunity to raise great kids, and be able to advocate for them, and provide for them. Great job. I mean that. What I'm saying is that not everyone has the privilege of being able to do that. Which was my point. The "Work harder" mindset sounds great on paper, but isn't a a possibility for a lot of parents. Some parents can 'parent harder' but have no success.
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Praise Jesus.
Kind of cruel, considering. Remember to ask for forgiveness for this one on Sunday.
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Data from Sultan. Whooopeeee
Sultan works for edweek, NPR, and axios?
It doesn't matter what Scooper found the data. Just what the data says and whether it is legitimate. Sultan providing the data doesn't make it illegitimate.
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::)
Hope you didn’t hurt yourself with all that “heavy lifting”.
Articles with stats vs anecdotes the rest of us have provided.
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brother dogie, fantastic story and huge kudos at ya for the ferocity with which you stood guard for your children...and it never ends. it's not supposed to.
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Data from Sultan. Whooopeeee
Lame.
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Again, I think the initial focus needs to be reading and pre-K. The fact that kids generally don't learn how to read until they are 6-7 is an absolute joke. Now obviously parents or families that read to young kids make an enormous difference in their development. But the goal of every pre-K early childhood teacher should be to getting children to read.
I've read certain things over the years that this goal is too lofty and puts too much pressure on our young citizens. Really? This is fking nonsense. Children learn way faster than adults, especially ages 1-5. If you put an average kid in a household with 20 people and 10 different languages spoken, he/she would know all 10 languages fluently with zero problem. An adult does not have that capacity.
You want to find some correlation between how much money we spend on education and results? Spend it on a Pre-K reading initiative. Pay people good money to get these youngsters the most important tool to succeed in their future. And once they learn how to read they can attack the world with confidence and passion.
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Again, I think the initial focus needs to be reading and pre-K. The fact that kids generally don't learn how to read until they are 6-7 is an absolute joke. Now obviously parents or families that read to young kids make an enormous difference in their development. But the goal of every pre-K early childhood teacher should be to getting children to read.
I've read certain things over the years that this goal is too lofty and puts too much pressure on our young citizens. Really? This is fking nonsense. Children learn way faster than adults, especially ages 1-5. If you put an average kid in a household with 20 people and 10 different languages spoken, he/she would know all 10 languages fluently with zero problem. An adult does not have that capacity.
You want to find some correlation between how much money we spend on education and results? Spend it on a Pre-K reading initiative. Pay people good money to get these youngsters the most important tool to succeed in their future. And once they learn how to read they can attack the world with confidence and passion.
Agreed muggs! We need universal pre-K and universal childcare
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Again, I think the initial focus needs to be reading and pre-K. The fact that kids generally don't learn how to read until they are 6-7 is an absolute joke. Now obviously parents or families that read to young kids make an enormous difference in their development. But the goal of every pre-K early childhood teacher should be to getting children to read.
I've read certain things over the years that this goal is too lofty and puts too much pressure on our young citizens. Really? This is fking nonsense. Children learn way faster than adults, especially ages 1-5. If you put an average kid in a household with 20 people and 10 different languages spoken, he/she would know all 10 languages fluently with zero problem. An adult does not have that capacity.
You want to find some correlation between how much money we spend on education and results? Spend it on a Pre-K reading initiative. Pay people good money to get these youngsters the most important tool to succeed in their future. And once they learn how to read they can attack the world with confidence and passion.
Yep. There is a large correlation between reading and success in school.
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Yep. There is a large correlation between reading and success in school.
Yep.
Also a large correlation between early childhood education and not just success in school, but success in life (less likely to become a criminal, less likely to abuse alcohol/drugs, etc.).
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Yep.
Also a large correlation between early childhood education and not just success in school, but success in life (less likely to become a criminal, less likely to abuse alcohol/drugs, etc.).
Everyone knows this. So, to give one example, why isn't it fixed in Chicago?
https://www.wbez.org/stories/why-has-the-cps-budget-increased-while-enrollment-has-shrunk/a114360a-447d-4a49-9e64-c2b6de124c4d
A decade ago, in 2013, the school district’s total budget, at a time of cuts, was $5.3 billion, or about $13,200 for each of the 403,000 students. The 2023 budget is $9.4 billion, or about $29,400 each for 322,000 students. Meanwhile, over the past decade, enrollment is down by about 81,000 students.
So, are Chicago's schools 250% better than the average school in the country?
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2022-08-26/which-states-invest-the-most-in-their-students#:~:text=Data%20shows%20which%20states%20spend,at%20the%20school%20level%20lie.&text=%7C-,Aug.,2022%2C%20at%202%3A07%20p.m.&text=To%20educate%20students%2C%20the%20U.S.,both%20across%20and%20within%20states.
To educate students, the U.S. on average spent just under $12,000 per pupil in fiscal year 2019, though totals varied broadly both across and within states.
Pre-k, universal, early childhood ... blah blah blah ...what you are saying is we don't spend enough per student. Chicago sh!ts money per student like few other school districts. So, why isn't it the model school district?
From WBEZ again ...
business, personnel costs make up the bulk of CPS’ expenses (65%), and its 43,000 employees get raises every year.
Whose fault is this and is the answer even more money when Chicago spends $29,000 per student when the rest of the country spends less than $12,000 per student?
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Cities reviving downtowns by converting offices to housing
https://apnews.com/article/cities-downtowns-vacant-offices-affordable-housing-pandemic-cc2cd895fd0f186229f69b74a133eddb?user_email=6647dfa7189f748384d7389910f7b584c6fcfc35ae990102964c7e826d4175c7&utm_medium=Morning_Wire&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_campaign=MorningWire_April24_2023&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers
NEW YORK (AP) — On the 31st floor of what was once a towering office building in downtown Manhattan, construction workers lay down steel bracing for what will soon anchor a host of residential amenities: a catering station, lounge, fire pit and gas grills.
The building, empty since 2021, is being converted to 588 market-rate rental apartments that will house about 1,000 people. “We’re taking a vacant building and pouring life not only into this building, but this entire neighborhood,” said Joey Chilelli, managing director of real estate firm Vanbarton Group, which is doing the conversion.
Across the country, office-to-housing conversions are being pursued as a potential lifeline for struggling downtown business districts that emptied out during the coronavirus pandemic and may never fully recover. The conversion push is marked by an emphasis on affordability. Multiple cities are offering serious tax breaks for developers to incentivize office-to-housing conversions — provided that a certain percentage of apartments are offered at affordable below-market prices.
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All:
First off, Brother TAMU, thanks for the kind words. Sadly, you may be right about my parents in the sense they were in the 1 percent. If they were, there's something incredibly wrong in this country. What they did was put their family first and put the needs of the flock of children they had (five in five years and a sixth 10 years later) ahead of their own desires and, in some cases, needs.
For what it's worth, so did my wife's parents. Like my parents, both her parents worked all day. But they found a way, as TAMU and Ms. TAMU are for TAMU Junior and as we did for our two children.
On a broad basis, yes, I am pointedly arguing for stronger and more effective parental involvement in their children's education. My wife and I used to discuss what we called the "three-legged stool" on which quality education is based. The three legs are parent, teacher and child. If all three legs are firm and well placed, you have an opportunity for a great school where the students do well. If one of the legs is broken or not properly rooted, the stool might work but it's far less effective. When two of the legs are broken or do not work, it's highly unlikely that the stool will work.
In our case, the Middle School teachers our children had should have been charged with educational malpractice. We scared them because we demanded results and we well versed in both state and federal law. They were failing our children and we demanded better. The teachers didn't have the upper hand because they knew we were right. Don't get me wrong: when our children screwed up (as they did many times), we were vocal with our children too.
Which brings me back to the topic at hand, the future of cities. Nobody is going to make a major capital investment in poor urban neighborhoods until the human capital problems are solved. The workforce is generally not equipped to do anything other than the simplest tasks. That's a function of the three legged stool with no legs working.
Schools have to exist for the students, not for the teachers, and parents have to be involved. I can't speak to every urban situation but in my long-time home of Chicago, I am confident that everything the schools is do for the teachers and not for the students. And, it's not translating to a better quality, better performing workforce. In the private sector, we'd respond by more R&D, capital expenditures and a major change-out in the staffing. Particularly with Chicago's new Mayor, that's not going to happen in the Schools.
Early childhood will help, I agree, but reform is the only answer!
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I can't speak to every urban situation but in my long-time home of Chicago, I am confident that everything the schools is do for the teachers and not for the students.
Sorry, dg, but you also can't speak for Chicago. My wife and I know at least a dozen Chicago teachers, including two of our best friends, and they work their asses off to make life and learning better for the kids. My daughter's best friend from high school is a Chicago public school teacher; she works incredibly hard, too. You might think their pay is "high" because it's more than teachers make in smaller towns and/or southern states, but Chicago is a very high cost-of-living area, and all of the teachers we know work WAY more than 40 hours a week.
And speaking of the south ...
Here in Charlotte, another major metro area, hundreds upon hundreds of teacher openings went unfilled this school year. As a result, class sizes had to be made larger, electives had to be abandoned, extracurricular activities were reduced, etc. Kids with special needs have been affected the most, as those jobs have been the most difficult to fill. NC has gutted teacher unions, millions of taxpayer dollars get funneled to religious schools and wealthy private schools, and teacher pay has lagged behind other states (though they've been frantically trying to play catch-up the last couple of years under public pressure). Teachers here are overworked and underappreciated, too.
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Cities reviving downtowns by converting offices to housing
https://apnews.com/article/cities-downtowns-vacant-offices-affordable-housing-pandemic-cc2cd895fd0f186229f69b74a133eddb?user_email=6647dfa7189f748384d7389910f7b584c6fcfc35ae990102964c7e826d4175c7&utm_medium=Morning_Wire&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_campaign=MorningWire_April24_2023&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers
NEW YORK (AP) — On the 31st floor of what was once a towering office building in downtown Manhattan, construction workers lay down steel bracing for what will soon anchor a host of residential amenities: a catering station, lounge, fire pit and gas grills.
The building, empty since 2021, is being converted to 588 market-rate rental apartments that will house about 1,000 people. “We’re taking a vacant building and pouring life not only into this building, but this entire neighborhood,” said Joey Chilelli, managing director of real estate firm Vanbarton Group, which is doing the conversion.
Across the country, office-to-housing conversions are being pursued as a potential lifeline for struggling downtown business districts that emptied out during the coronavirus pandemic and may never fully recover. The conversion push is marked by an emphasis on affordability. Multiple cities are offering serious tax breaks for developers to incentivize office-to-housing conversions — provided that a certain percentage of apartments are offered at affordable below-market prices.
I was thinking about this story when this thread started. I saw a similar article a month ago and found it interesting that cities see it as a one-time-opportunity to convert unused office space to apartments (that are in demand). Kills a few birds with one stone.
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Cities reviving downtowns by converting offices to housing
https://apnews.com/article/cities-downtowns-vacant-offices-affordable-housing-pandemic-cc2cd895fd0f186229f69b74a133eddb?user_email=6647dfa7189f748384d7389910f7b584c6fcfc35ae990102964c7e826d4175c7&utm_medium=Morning_Wire&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_campaign=MorningWire_April24_2023&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers
NEW YORK (AP) — On the 31st floor of what was once a towering office building in downtown Manhattan, construction workers lay down steel bracing for what will soon anchor a host of residential amenities: a catering station, lounge, fire pit and gas grills.
The building, empty since 2021, is being converted to 588 market-rate rental apartments that will house about 1,000 people. “We’re taking a vacant building and pouring life not only into this building, but this entire neighborhood,” said Joey Chilelli, managing director of real estate firm Vanbarton Group, which is doing the conversion.
Across the country, office-to-housing conversions are being pursued as a potential lifeline for struggling downtown business districts that emptied out during the coronavirus pandemic and may never fully recover. The conversion push is marked by an emphasis on affordability. Multiple cities are offering serious tax breaks for developers to incentivize office-to-housing conversions — provided that a certain percentage of apartments are offered at affordable below-market prices.
This is what FiDi (the Financial District) did after 9/11. It remade itself into a residential neighborhood.
They even have a Montessori school across the street from the New York Stock Exchange.
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So, yes, it can work, but it is horribly expensive, highly disruptive, and takes 10 to 20 years.
And if FiDi, Fulton Market in Chicago, and the Third Ward in Milwaukee are examples, downtowns remade into residential areas are for rich, well-educated white people to live. It is not a place of affordability housing. So, it widens the inequality in major cities, a source of big problems now.
But based on the comments here, which reflect comments away from this board (so I'm not bashing anyone here, just saying they reflect a wider the comments about cities), there is nothing wrong with the cities. They are returning to normal. Remote work is ending. So, there is no need to spend trillions in remaking the downtown areas in residential neighborhoods as it is "all going back to 2019."
But, if the pandemic has changed the nature of work, and the need to have major downtown areas of major citites, then yes, we need to spend trillions redoing all the offices in residential and rethink why we have large urban areas and happens in them (live in downtown or work there).
But for what? Rich white people to live a more cosmopolitan lifestyle? What about the wasteland on the Northside of Milwaukee, the south and west sides of Chicago, and Harlem and the Bronx in NYC? This does nothing for them.
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How Wall Street Became a Fancy Residential Neighborhood
The effort to repopulate downtown Manhattan has been a big success, but not for everyone.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-29/how-wall-street-became-a-fancy-residential-neighborhood
The rise of remote work during the pandemic has cut demand for office space and left some American downtowns feeling like ghost towns. As a result, there’s been much talk of converting downtown offices into apartments. This could not only bail out owners of suddenly less-valuable commercial real estate, advocates say, but bring life to emptied-out neighborhoods, passengers to underused transit systems and affordable housing to cities that desperately need it.
Could it work? Well, one iconic American downtown — New York’s Financial District, also known as Wall Street — embarked on just such a transformation several decades ago and has certainly succeeded in attracting residents. In 1970, the Manhattan census tracts south of Chambers Street on the west and the Brooklyn Bridge on the east had 833 inhabitants. As of the 2020 Census, there were 60,806.
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Pre-k, universal, early childhood ... blah blah blah ...what you are saying is we don't spend enough per student. Chicago sh!ts money per student like few other school districts. So, why isn't it the model school district?
Literally nobody here said this. You remain the king of knocking over straw men.
From WBEZ again ...
business, personnel costs make up the bulk of CPS’ expenses (65%), and its 43,000 employees get raises every year.
Personnel costs make up the bulk of every nearly organization's spending. Duh. In fact, 65% is arguably on the low end.
Raises? No, no that!
Whose fault is this and is the answer even more money when Chicago spends $29,000 per student when the rest of the country spends less than $12,000 per student?
First, can you show where you're getting this $12,000 figure? According to the next link, the national average was $13,494 in FY2020. Are you really suggesting the national average has dipped about $1,500 per student over the last three years?
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/per-pupil-spending.html
Second, according to the next link, per pupil spending in CPS was $17,800 in 2020, not that far off the national average which we've already established. Now, can you imagine any reason why per-student spending has risen so dramatically in the three years since? Or where CPS got all this money? Or what worldwide event might have led to a sudden increase in spending? Might it be the result of a torrent of COVID relief money - more than $2.8 billion, to be exact - CPS has received since then? Or is it your argument that CPS has risen property taxes 63% since 2020 to cover those added costs?
https://chalkboardreview.com/report-as-schools-approach-30000-per-student-in-spending-performance-plunges/
Third, it's quite ridiculous to compare per-pupil spending in a massive, urban school district with the "national average." As you know, everything costs more - from personnel to transportation to supplies to building maintenance - in places like Chicago, New York and San Francisco, than in Newton, Kansas, Butte Montana, and Evansville, Indiana. Any accurate comparison would have to be among peer districts.
None of this isn't to suggest CPS doesn't have big problems or isn't in need of significant improvement. It does and it does. But your suggestion that its per pupil spending ought to be compared with the national average is pretty silly.
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Literally nobody here said this. You remain the king of knocking over straw men.
Personnel costs make up the bulk of every nearly organization's spending. Duh. In fact, 65% is arguably on the low end.
Raises? No, no that!
First, can you show where you're getting this $12,000 figure? According to the next link, the national average was $13,494 in FY2020. Are you really suggesting the national average has dipped about $1,500 per student over the last three years?
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/per-pupil-spending.html
Second, according to the next link, per pupil spending in CPS was $17,800 in 2020, not that far off the national average which we've already established. Now, can you imagine any reason why per-student spending has risen so dramatically in the three years since? Or where CPS got all this money? Or what worldwide event might have led to a sudden increase in spending? Might it be the result of a torrent of COVID relief money - more than $2.8 billion, to be exact - CPS has received since then? Or is it your argument that CPS has risen property taxes 63% since 2020 to cover those added costs?
https://chalkboardreview.com/report-as-schools-approach-30000-per-student-in-spending-performance-plunges/
Third, it's quite ridiculous to compare per-pupil spending in a massive, urban school district with the "national average." As you know, everything costs more - from personnel to transportation to supplies to building maintenance - in places like Chicago, New York and San Francisco, than in Newton, Kansas, Butte Montana, and Evansville, Indiana. Any accurate comparison would have to be among peer districts.
None of this isn't to suggest CPS doesn't have big problems or isn't in need of significant improvement. It does and it does. But your suggestion that its per pupil spending ought to be compared with the national average is pretty silly.
I'll boil it down for you ... about 100% of the population agrees on the need for pre-k, universal, and early childhood education. There is no need to make a case for it. It has long ago been made.
So if we all agree on it, what's the problem? Money! Who is going to pay for it? So, this is a veiled argument for an increase in per-pupil spending.
Are we not paying enough already?
And to your post ... just say it ... the problem with Chicago is $30k per pupil is not enough. The city needs to raise taxes and spend even more on education.
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Personnel costs make up the bulk of every nearly organization's spending. Duh. In fact, 65% is arguably on the low end.
Raises? No, no that!
#FakeNews #Lies
“Every nearly”? Lol. Not nearly every either.
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I'll boil it down for you ... about 100% of the population agrees on the need for pre-k, universal, and early childhood education. There is no need to make a case for it. It has long ago been made.
So if we all agree on it, what's the problem? Money! Who is going to pay for it? So, this is a veiled argument for an increase in per-pupil spending.
Are we not paying enough already?
And to your post ... just say it ... the problem with Chicago is $30k per pupil is not enough. The city needs to raise taxes and spend even more on education.
So, if I understand your argument here, it's that you and everyone else accepts that early childhood education has wide-ranging, decadeslong positive impacts both on individuals and society as a whole, but you just don't want to pay for it?
Huh. Guess you'd prefer your taxes go to unemployment benefits, food stamps, public housing and prisons.
And to your post ... just say it ... #thepoornomatta
Anyhow, the good news is that CPS already offers free early childhood education.
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#FakeNews #Lies
Labor costs can account for as much as 70% of total business costs; this includes employee wages, benefits, payroll and other related taxes.
https://www.paycor.com/resource-center/articles/closer-look-at-labor-costs/
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So, if I understand your argument here, it's that you and everyone else accepts that early childhood education has wide-ranging, decadeslong positive impacts both on individuals and society as a whole, but you just don't want to pay for it?
Huh. Guess you'd prefer your taxes go to unemployment benefits, food stamps, public housing and prisons.
And to your post ... just say it ... #thepoornomatta
Anyhow, the good news is that CPS already offers free early childhood education.
Thank you for saying $30k/year per student is not enough. Just keep paying more and more.
Now that we have settled, do you think the problem is taxes are too low?
Tell me this, Mayor Johnson ... why do you think for one second the current educational system is competent enough to take this one. They have failed at everything else. Why isn't it just more wasted money and wasted lives?
Hint, Start with firing thousands of non-teachers in the public school system and use that to pay for it. If it is that important, isn't it worth firing 10,000 to 15,000 school administrators?
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Labor costs can account for as much as 70% of total business costs; this includes employee wages, benefits, payroll and other related taxes.
https://www.paycor.com/resource-center/articles/closer-look-at-labor-costs/
“Can”, not at all what you says, dingbat. There are tons of orgs that have far higher costs outside of personnel. Accept the L
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Thank you for saying $30k/year per student is not enough. Just keep paying more and more.
You're not a serious person.
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You're not a serious person.
This is what losing an argument looks like
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I'll boil it down for you ... about 100% of the population agrees on the need for pre-k, universal, and early childhood education. There is no need to make a case for it. It has long ago been made.
So if we all agree on it, what's the problem? Money! Who is going to pay for it? So, this is a veiled argument for an increase in per-pupil spending.
Are we not paying enough already?
And to your post ... just say it ... the problem with Chicago is $30k per pupil is not enough. The city needs to raise taxes and spend even more on education.
I am not privy to how this money is being specifically spent with regards to pre-K programs. Are you? What I do know is there a sizeable% of kids that cannot read by the time they are 7 and this is fking absurd. So again, why can we not have a national goal using as many resources at our disposal as possible and change this fact? Because these kids are essentially in danger to have any future whatsoever in this world if they cannot read. I would focus on this goal alone and I believe it could bring both political sides together. Get our kids reading at 3, 4, and 5. And no, I do not hear anyone discussing that we absolutely have to change this dynamic and treat it as our highest priority.
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I am not privy to how this money is being specifically spent with regards to pre-K programs. Are you? What I do know is there a sizeable% of kids that cannot read by the time they are 7 and this is fking absurd. So again, why can we not have a national goal using as many resources at our disposal as possible and change this fact? Because these kids are essentially in danger to have any future whatsoever in this world if they cannot read. I would focus on this goal alone and I believe it could bring both political sides together. Get our kids reading at 3, 4, and 5. And no, I do not hear anyone discussing that we absolutely have to change this dynamic and treat it as our highest priority.
Agree, Muggs. We've actually made some nice in-roads in this area in NC, especially in the big cities. And that's despite politics here being as divisive as anywhere, so it can happen if the power brokers are willing to put aside some pettiness and work together.
Covid-19 was a rough blow because the kids who could least afford time away were missing school, but even they are gradually catching up again.
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This is what losing an argument looks like
No, it's what being bored with real-life examples of the Dunning–Kruger effect looks like.
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Sorry, dg, but you also can't speak for Chicago. My wife and I know at least a dozen Chicago teachers, including two of our best friends, and they work their asses off to make life and learning better for the kids. My daughter's best friend from high school is a Chicago public school teacher; she works incredibly hard, too. You might think their pay is "high" because it's more than teachers make in smaller towns and/or southern states, but Chicago is a very high cost-of-living area, and all of the teachers we know work WAY more than 40 hours a week.
Brother MU:
The fact that (if I remember correctly) only 11 percent of African Americans and 17 percent of Hispanic students tested can function at grade level in 11th grade math speaks for itself. By any measure, CPS is failing. In many African American and Hispanic neighborhoods, ACT and SAT scores are so low as to barely register. Even accounting for allegations of cultural bias, the numbers are shameful.
Sure, we can throw more money at it. But CPS is spending more than double the statewide average per pupil. And that's a state that includes New Trier, Highland Park, Lake Forest, Stevenson, Glenbrook, Glenbard, Naperville, Downers Grove, Hinsdale among others. It is a state that spends a very large amount of property tax on education and Chicago is failing. Badly.
Nobody wants to face the massive scope of the failure because, like Illinois' public pension mess, if you deal with it, there will be both pain and unnerving change. Neither is something people prefer from their government. That, and thousands and thousands of people not used to accountability will be held accountable! Heck, the city could not even close heavily underutilized schools without massive threats from the CTU, allegations of racism from the neighborhoods and screams about how a half dozen children will have to wade across the floor of the Kennedy Expressway and dodge 80,000 pound trucks to get to an alternative school (OK, I jest on the last one, a little)
I'll concede that there are some caring, good teachers in CPS. And, I'll further concede that if one can contribute enough money to an alderman, local potentate or ward healer to get children into a magnet school, the education is pretty good. But the separate and horribly unequal education that comes from most CPS schools not only is terrible but is a civil rights violation as well.
Reform the educational system to put students first and you're well on your way to improving urban economies.
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Brother MU:
The fact that (if I remember correctly) only 11 percent of African Americans and 17 percent of Hispanic students tested can function at grade level in 11th grade math speaks for itself. By any measure, CPS is failing. In many African American and Hispanic neighborhoods, ACT and SAT scores are so low as to barely register. Even accounting for allegations of cultural bias, the numbers are shameful.
Sure, we can throw more money at it. But CPS is spending more than double the statewide average per pupil. And that's a state that includes New Trier, Highland Park, Lake Forest, Stevenson, Glenbrook, Glenbard, Naperville, Downers Grove, Hinsdale among others. It is a state that spends a very large amount of property tax on education and Chicago is failing. Badly.
Nobody wants to face the massive scope of the failure because, like Illinois' public pension mess, if you deal with it, there will be both pain and unnerving change. Neither is something people prefer from their government. That, and thousands and thousands of people not used to accountability will be held accountable! Heck, the city could not even close heavily underutilized schools without massive threats from the CTU, allegations of racism from the neighborhoods and screams about how a half dozen children will have to wade across the floor of the Kennedy Expressway and dodge 80,000 pound trucks to get to an alternative school (OK, I jest on the last one, a little)
I'll concede that there are some caring, good teachers in CPS. And, I'll further concede that if one can contribute enough money to an alderman, local potentate or ward healer to get children into a magnet school, the education is pretty good. But the separate and horribly unequal education that comes from most CPS schools not only is terrible but is a civil rights violation as well.
Reform the educational system to put students first and you're well on your way to improving urban economies.
We all know the overall state of CPS is poor. I was responding to your suggestion that CPS teachers have been handed wonderful jobs with great pay and conditions by a district that does "everything for the teachers and not for the students."
Thanks for conceding that there are some caring, good teachers at CPS. I'd suggest that there are a lot more than you choose to believe, and I'd suggest that very few have it easy.
As for Chicago and any other major metro school district, improving them obviously is incredibly difficult. I agree reform is necessary. But saying "reform" is a bazillion times easier than to even begin to execute reform.
And for the record, after attending a neighborhood K-8 school, both of our kids somehow got into Payton Prep even though my wife and I didn't pay off any aldermen.
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We all know the overall state of CPS is poor. I was responding to your suggestion that CPS teachers have been handed wonderful jobs with great pay and conditions by a district that does "everything for the teachers and not for the students."
Thanks for conceding that there are some caring, good teachers at CPS. I'd suggest that there are a lot more than you choose to believe, and I'd suggest that very few have it easy.
As for Chicago and any other major metro school district, improving them obviously is incredibly difficult. I agree reform is necessary. But saying "reform" is a bazillion times easier than to even begin to execute reform.
And for the record, after attending a neighborhood K-8 school, both of our kids somehow got into Payton Prep even though my wife and I didn't pay off any aldermen.
I think you may have me confused with someone else. I never said they had a great job with great pay. Rather, I said and continue to believe, the vast majority aren't doing their jobs. The CTU has taken control of CPS and the system works for the teachers, not the students.
I'm glad your children were admitted to Payton prep. It's not only one of the best CPS schools, it's among the best in the country. What that means is the teachers WANT to teach your children. I'm sure your children were smart, well prepared and didn't give the teachers a whole lot of trouble. From what you've said about your family over the years, they're great young adults.
The teachers didn't want to teach my children -- and we were in a so-called "high-performing" district which had a motto of "Learning for All -- Whatever It Takes." Mine were outliers and traditional teaching techniques didn't work. My daughter was stuck in an LD class with six other children, all of whom were boys and none of whom spoke English sufficiently to function in a U.S. School. Rather than finding a way to reach our children -- which is their job -- they tried to socially promote them. My wife gets an instant ticket to heaven for the hours she spent re-teaching our children late into the evening because the schools were inept. In effect, our children were home schooled. Thank God Libertyville High more than made up for the incompetence we saw in Middle School.
Heck, even one of my relatives who is a teacher, in my presence, wailed about having to teach "those learning disabled children."
Multiply this by the number of students who may have been exposed to fetal alcohol, who have some type of genetic learning disability or otherwise have problems teachers don't want to deal with. That's a big part of CPS' problem, along with parents who just have given up. We gave thought several times about moving to the city while we lived in the Chicago area, but didn't in large measure because we were afraid of CPS. With good reason!
Bottom line: You want to reverse the 60 year population decline? School reform -- real reform with performance benchmarks -- has to be the starting point. We can't run from it because it steps on the CTU's toes, or because it's too hard!
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I think you may have me confused with someone else. I never said they had a great job with great pay. Rather, I said and continue to believe, the vast majority aren't doing their jobs. The CTU has taken control of CPS and the system works for the teachers, not the students.
Anyway to support this, beyond your feelings?
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dgies, no need to go further. My experience with Chicago teachers, including those I know personally and those who taught my kids from their earliest years, apparently was different than yours.
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dgies, no need to go further. My experience with Chicago teachers, including those I know personally and those who taught my kids from their earliest years, apparently was different than yours.
I don't think it's black and white. I think there are excellent teachers, good teachers, mediocre teachers, poor teachers, and really bad teachers. And this is at every level.
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I don't think it's black and white. I think there are excellent teachers, good teachers, mediocre teachers, poor teachers, and really bad teachers. And this is at every level.
And in every city, town and village.
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And in every city, town and village.
No question about it.
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Downtown Has Not Yet Fully Recovered
https://apolloacademy.com/downtown-has-not-yet-fully-recovered/
Data from downtowns show that cellphone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels, see chart below. New York is at 74% and Chicago is at 50% of 2019 levels. Boston is at 54% of pre-pandemic levels. This has implications for retail, restaurants, and office.
(https://apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/042423-Chart-1.jpg)
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Having just read this entire dialogue I'm surprised there are no references to European or Asian cities in which one can live and work and dine and shop all within a few hundred meters... or at least on top of a subway stop that conveniently take you to where you work.
Most US cities (and this is a distinctly US problem, even Canada has avoided it) have underinvested in:
- public transport
- zoning & re-zoning
- education
The old american concept of living in the burbs and working in the center is dead. That's why cities need to re-formulate (re-zone) and re-invent mixed use areas that cater to business and living and culture.
If I were to live in downtown Milwaukee or Chicago (which I'd love to do), i would expect that the massive property taxes would create an education system worthy of the expense, and public transport that is at least not disgusting.
Examples of cities that have successfully combined work/home/basic needs/culture: (in no apparent order) Melbourne, Brisbane, Singapore, Hong Kong, Zurich, Berlin, Dubai, Moscow, Vancouver. Jakarta and Bangkok have massively improved.
Milwaukee is in fact one of the best mid-size mid-american cities with a city center far more active than St. Louis, Dayton, Cincinnatti, Detroit, etc.
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Having just read this entire dialogue I'm surprised there are no references to European or Asian cities in which one can live and work and dine and shop all within a few hundred meters... or at least on top of a subway stop that conveniently take you to where you work.
Most US cities (and this is a distinctly US problem, even Canada has avoided it) have underinvested in:
- public transport
- zoning & re-zoning
- education
The old american concept of living in the burbs and working in the center is dead. That's why cities need to re-formulate (re-zone) and re-invent mixed use areas that cater to business and living and culture.
If I were to live in downtown Milwaukee or Chicago (which I'd love to do), i would expect that the massive property taxes would create an education system worthy of the expense, and public transport that is at least not disgusting.
Examples of cities that have successfully combined work/home/basic needs/culture: (in no apparent order) Melbourne, Brisbane, Singapore, Hong Kong, Zurich, Berlin, Dubai, Moscow, Vancouver. Jakarta and Bangkok have massively improved.
Milwaukee is in fact one of the best mid-size mid-american cities with a city center far more active than St. Louis, Dayton, Cincinnatti, Detroit, etc.
Agree on all fronts, but Americans opted for single family homes and sprawl 70 years ago. We don't plan our cities very well here.
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Interesting Article in today's NYT
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/10/opinion/nyc-office-vacancy-playground-city.html
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Milwaukee is in fact one of the best mid-size mid-american cities with a city center far more active than St. Louis, Dayton, Cincinnatti, Detroit, etc.
But they don't have the Cardinals ;D
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Large U.S. cities regain population lost during pandemic, census data shows
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/05/18/cities-population-rebound-pandemic/
Many of the nation’s most populous cities shrank when covid struck, causing speculation about whether the change would be permanent. But those cities are for the most part rebounding, according to new data released by the Census Bureau on Thursday.
Most of the 37 cities with more than 500,000 people saw demographic slowdowns in the first year of the pandemic, with the most severe declines in San Francisco, which lost 6.79 percent of its population, and New York City, which lost 3.22 percent. But between July 2021 and July 2022, all but six had improved their trajectory, either by resuming growth, increasing growth, or slowing their decline, the bureau’s latest Vintage 2022 population estimates show.
The 10 most populous cities — those with more than 1 million residents at the start of the pandemic — did the best, with nine out of 10 showing demographic improvement. (Only Philadelphia did not.) The turnarounds spanned the country, with the largest in San Francisco, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, New York City, San Jose, Dallas and Milwaukee, according to an analysis of the data by William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution.
Less populous cities, on the other hand, have not seen the same level of revival: Only about half of those with populations between 50,000 and 500,000 did better last year than the previous year. “Fewer of these smaller areas took the big hits of larger cities, and many experienced pandemic-era increases which could be eroding somewhat in the past year,” Frey said.
At the beginning of the pandemic, when many workers who were able to telecommute fled crowded cities for the suburbs or rural areas, businesses and demographers were left guessing whether the moves would be permanent. The new data implies they were not. But regaining population does not necessarily mean that city centers will bounce back.
“We’re talking about whole cities, not just downtowns,” Frey said. “Especially in big cities, where downtown is a big part of the commercial but not a big part of the residential, you still have a lot of people working from home.” ...
The growth may yet increase, Frey said, noting that the numbers released Thursday roughly reflect the second year of the pandemic, when many people were still being cautious. “When the pandemic is on the back burner for many of these people, there may be more coming down the road.”
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From the story above.
Most of these cities never had more than 1 million in population. This is factually incorrect.
——
The 10 most populous cities — those with more than 1 million residents at the start of the pandemic — did the best, with nine out of 10 showing demographic improvement. (Only Philadelphia did not.) The turnarounds spanned the country, with the largest in San Francisco, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, New York City, San Jose, Dallas and Milwaukee, according to an analysis of the data by William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution.
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And yet they are growing, including the Chicago metro area.
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People have been forecasting the downfall of cities for a long time. Heisey will just be the latest in a long-line of people to be wrong about it.
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People have been forecasting the downfall of cities for a long time. Heisey will just be the latest in a long-line of people to be wrong about it.
They were right in the 60s and 70s though, during white flight. Cities (NYC as an example) changed and beginning in the 90s gentrified like crazy. Now there is a ton of commercial real estate that isn't being used (WFH being a thing). Cities could probably add a lot more density if they added housing where commercial properties sit empty.
Furthermore, there should be some regulation regarding empty store fronts being allowed to sit empty for years without the owner attempting to find a tenant. Tax empty commercial buildings to facilitate entrepreneurship instead of real estate speculation. Looking at you, State Street in Madison.
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They were right in the 60s and 70s though, during white flight. Cities (NYC as an example) changed and beginning in the 90s gentrified like crazy. Now there is a ton of commercial real estate that isn't being used (WFH being a thing). Cities could probably add a lot more density if they added housing where commercial properties sit empty.
Furthermore, there should be some regulation regarding empty store fronts being allowed to sit empty for years without the owner attempting to find a tenant. Tax empty commercial buildings to facilitate entrepreneurship instead of real estate speculation. Looking at you, State Street in Madison.
What you're describing isn't the downfall of cities, though. It's the evolution of cities. And that's something that's been happening since a bunch of Sumerians got together and decided they were tired of walking so much.
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Who you callin' a Sumerian? YOU'RE a Sumerian, pal!
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What you're describing isn't the downfall of cities, though. It's the evolution of cities. And that's something that's been happening since a bunch of Sumerians got together and decided they were tired of walking so much.
Okay, is your definition of downfall the total elimination? Because then we're just having a ridiculous argument.
If you're okay with it, arbiter, we can change downfall to decline.
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And yet they are growing, including the Chicago metro area.
Just because you keep saying it does not make it correct ...
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-census-update-2023-20230518-i2de6f6oy5gsba3ahzgv2by2hq-story.html
People constantly come and go, but new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Chicago lost about 81,000 people, or just under 3% of its population, from 2020 to 2022. Despite the decline, the city retained its position as the nation’s third most populous city, after New York City and Los Angeles, in 2022. Houston was ranked fourth.
Chicago’s population as of July 1, 2022, was estimated at 2,665,039, with changes calculated from the estimated base of April 1, 2020.
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Just because you keep saying it does not make it correct ...
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-census-update-2023-20230518-i2de6f6oy5gsba3ahzgv2by2hq-story.html
People constantly come and go, but new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Chicago lost about 81,000 people, or just under 3% of its population, from 2020 to 2022. Despite the decline, the city retained its position as the nation’s third most populous city, after New York City and Los Angeles, in 2022. Houston was ranked fourth.
Chicago’s population as of July 1, 2022, was estimated at 2,665,039, with changes calculated from the estimated base of April 1, 2020.
And that's before Brandon Johnson!!!!!
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People have been forecasting the downfall of cities for a long time. Heisey will just be the latest in a long-line of people to be wrong about it.
Perfect post by a guy with the name "semantics" in his handle. "Downfall" means nothing.
For instance, Chicago's population was 3.6 million in 1970, and 2.6 million today. So, by one definition, the loss of 1 million in 50 years makes the "downfall" a historical statement of fact. It is not an opinion, anymore.
But since it is an open-ended meaningless statement, as long as there is a geographic area called A city" the expert of semantics can claim this statement is wrong.
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And that's before Brandon Johnson!!!!!
Angela Davis will join Johnson in a Sunday event about the future of Chicago.
Because Angela Davis is exactly the person Johnson wants to talk about the future of Chicago.
Promoted on Twitter here
https://twitter.com/gochujung_/status/1658550933653954575
Who is Angela Davis?
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Davis was among the most notorious figures in America’s last radical era forty or fifty years ago. She was twice the U.S. Communist Party’s candidate for vice president and was warmly welcomed by the former Soviet Union (which awarded her its Lenin Peace Prize), the former East Germany and Cuba. A gun belonging to her was used in a famous attempt to spring prisoners in which four people were killed. She was prosecuted but acquitted for three capital felonies including conspiracy to murder.
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Perfect post by a guy with the name "semantics" in his handle. "Downfall" means nothing.
For instance, Chicago's population was 3.6 million in 1970, and 2.6 million today. So, by one definition, the loss of 1 million in 50 years makes the "downfall" a historical statement of fact. It is not an opinion, anymore.
But since it is an open-ended meaningless statement, as long as there is a geographic area called A city" the expert of semantics can claim this statement is wrong.
LOL, this is rich. Coming from a guy who cites population figures from "a city" without seemingly understanding how cities work and operate.
I think I would make a great living as a futurist. All I would have to do is come to Scoop to see what Heisey is saying...and predict the opposite. I'd be rich beyond my wildest dreams.
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And that's before Brandon Johnson!!!!!
How do you say "defund the police?"
BREAKING: Mayor Brandon Johnson appoints @GarienGatewood Deputy Mayor of Community Safety, a post created by MBJ. He "will lead cross-government efforts to eradicate the root causes of crime and violence, and advance a comprehensive, healing-centered approach to public safety."
13:54
https://twitter.com/jimdaleywrites/status/16595854406
BREAKING: Mayor Brandon Johnson appoints @GarienGatewood Deputy Mayor of Community Safety, a post created by MBJ. He "will lead cross-government efforts to eradicate the root causes of crime and violence, and advance a comprehensive, healing-centered approach to public safety."
https://twitter.com/jimdaleywrites/status/1659585440603598849?s=20
@GarienGatewood "I am humbled by this opportunity to advance a holistic and comprehensive approach to community safety," said Gatewood in a press release announcing the appointment.
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LOL, this is rich. Coming from a guy who cites population figures from "a city" without seemingly understanding how cities work and operate.
I think I would make a great living as a futurist. All I would have to do is come to Scoop to see what Heisey is saying...and predict the opposite. I'd be rich beyond my wildest dreams.
Go for it!
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Go for it!
Nah. It would require to read too many of your posts.
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Nah. It would require to read too many of your posts.
lazy
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lazy
Definitely.
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lazy
Sultan is way, way too busy to do something like that.
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Just because you keep saying it does not make it correct ...
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-census-update-2023-20230518-i2de6f6oy5gsba3ahzgv2by2hq-story.html
People constantly come and go, but new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Chicago lost about 81,000 people, or just under 3% of its population, from 2020 to 2022. Despite the decline, the city retained its position as the nation’s third most populous city, after New York City and Los Angeles, in 2022. Houston was ranked fourth.
Chicago’s population as of July 1, 2022, was estimated at 2,665,039, with changes calculated from the estimated base of April 1, 2020.
Thanks for that update, seriously. I hadn't seen it from two days ago.
It is only talking about the city of Chicago and not the metro area, though. As of the previous report, the Chicago metro area actually had grown, but maybe this latest report shows the area also has seen a small decline.
Either way, I'm not particularly concerned. It's your right to be very concerned, of course.
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Okay, is your definition of downfall the total elimination? Because then we're just having a ridiculous argument.
If you're okay with it, arbiter, we can change downfall to decline.
Arbiter? Cool.
I would use neither downfall or decline, because neither are accurate. What you describe as occurring in the 60s and 70s is just part of the ebb and flows of urbanization that's been occurring since the dawn of civilization. And a minor blip of one at that. You want to see a real ebb? Check out Rome in the mid 6th century. Or London circa 1563. And yet both are still around.
Maybe we'll see a tectonic shift in civilization, and humanity moves away from the urban model that's been at the core of our existence for a few millennia now. I suspect not, but who knows.
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In the Tribune article:
Eamon Kerrigan-Krodel, 22, graduated from Ohio State University in December and is moving to Chicago in July, where he got an accounting job. He likes Chicago’s nightlife, affordable rent and public transportation.
“Being able to take the train into work or pretty much anywhere you want to go in the city is awesome,” he said.
Kerrigan-Krodell is relocating at a time when Chicago’s rental market is booming, with the city seeing some of the fastest price increases in the country, indicating high demand.
Yep. If he's smart (and he went to The OSU, so he must be!), he'll simply spend his time in Chicago's many wonderful, vibrant, safe neighborhoods while avoiding the few bad neighborhoods.
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Brother MU:
Northeastern Illinois isn't growing either. The same Chicago Tribune article reported the following:
"The census also estimates that Illinois lost more than 230,000 people, or about 1.8%, in that time. Much of the reported decline — about 176,000 — came in the Chicago metropolitan area, which covers 14 counties including Cook and the collar counties, and extends into Indiana and Wisconsin."
As I said earlier, that's before Brandon Johnson. If the city doesn't get the crime problem under control, the 81,000 person loss will be a single raindrop in the ocean. It will get a lot bigger a lot faster. Add that to job killing taxes that Mayor Johnson is proposing for Chicago and the things that make Chicago, well, Chicago, will erode. Pile on Governor JB and the illusionary financial improvement in Illinois and you have a real problem.
It's death by a thousand cuts. One cut was Mitsubishi in Normal. Another is Chrysler in Belvidere. And Sears (failing), Citadel, Caterpillar, Allstate (moving more of its jobs elsewhere), Boeing, American scaling back its hub at ORD and, well, you get the drift.
My wife and I are testing something this year -- we're doing AirBnB in Lincoln Park from July to September. If it's nice, we'll come back. But if the crime is what it's alleged to be, perhaps not.
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Thanks for the info, dg.
I'll let you wax poetic about what the mayor does or doesn't need to do.
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And that's before Brandon Johnson!!!!!
Hope you're not getting your Brandon Johnson info from Fox "News."
The morning of Mayor Brandon Johnson’s inauguration, “Fox and Friends” aired a live segment from a Naperville diner featuring two Black men whom Fox’s correspondent said happened to be from Chicago. The correspondent, Gianno Caldwell, presented the segment as a spontaneous interview about Johnson being sworn in as mayor.
Except the two men didn’t just happen to be at the diner. Both men told The TRiiBE they were invited to appear on the segment by Caldwell, but that Caldwell told them the interview would be about violence, not Johnson.
One of the men, Lavondale “Big Dale” Glass, is an assistant director of violence prevention for Project H.O.O.D., a nonprofit whose founder endorsed Vallas. The other man, Andre Smith, was paid more than $10,000 by Vallas‘s campaign committee, and told The TRiiBE he ran field operations for the campaign.
https://thetriibe.com/2023/05/fox-and-friends-staged-naperville-interview-criticizing-mayor-brandon-johnson/
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At least they weren't bribed to pose as homeless veterans in order to buttress another made up story.
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From the story above.
Most of these cities never had more than 1 million in population. This is factually incorrect.
——
The 10 most populous cities — those with more than 1 million residents at the start of the pandemic — did the best, with nine out of 10 showing demographic improvement. (Only Philadelphia did not.) The turnarounds spanned the country, with the largest in San Francisco, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, New York City, San Jose, Dallas and Milwaukee, according to an analysis of the data by William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution.
The problem is your reading comprehension. The article states the 10 most populous cities did the best. Those 10 cities are not listed in the portion posted by MU82, but they would be NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, and San Jose.
Many of the cities listed (San Fran, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, Milwaukee) were between 500,000 and 1,000,000. It's clear from what was posted. Try reading it again.
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Rural America Lost Population Over the Past Decade for the First Time in History
https://carsey.unh.edu/publication-rural-america-lost-population-over-past-decade-for-first-time-in-history
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The problem is your reading comprehension. The article states the 10 most populous cities did the best. Those 10 cities are not listed in the portion posted by MU82, but they would be NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, and San Jose.
Many of the cities listed (San Fran, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, Milwaukee) were between 500,000 and 1,000,000. It's clear from what was posted. Try reading it again.
Or it is a horribly written paragraph reflecting the poor state of mainstream journalism.
And everything about this story is suspect.
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I expect the long term population trends toward cities to continue. It is an arch that goes back centuries and really picked up with the Industrial Revolution. Covid will force adjustments from commercial towards more residential. But people aren’t moving back to tiny rural towns because they can work from there as people predicted. Some people, sure, older people to save money, sure. Educated younger people want to be in cities. The trend to the south will continue. These trends are long term and history is our guide for the future.
Cities like Chicago see residential populations increasing in more expensive nicer areas, the downtowns, etc. Declines in poorer neighborhoods.
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Declines in poorer neighborhoods.
Because of the black on black crime.
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Because of the black on black crime.
Also poop on the sidewalks and a sea of used needles. Just ask anyone gullible dentist.
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Datz watt happens wen citizens (can ya say citizens here) keep votin' in da same kind of politicians, aina?
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From today's WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/progressive-cities-population-decline-census-bureau-chicago-new-york-san-francisco-e803562c
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From today's WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/progressive-cities-population-decline-census-bureau-chicago-new-york-san-francisco-e803562c
Just to be clear, this is from the WSJ Opinion Page, not the news department.
One is a group of highly respected professionals doing some of the best work in journalism today. The other is clown car of partisan hacks.
Needless to say, the former despises the latter.
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Hope you're not getting your Brandon Johnson info from Fox "News."
No, I'm not.
As a reasonably educated (MU grad) person, I tend to read the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, Apple's news digest and the JSOnline almost every day. Because I stream, I also get all four network Chicago television stations every night (the Lovely Allison 10 Minute Digest, aka NBC5's nightly news digest, spares me the angst of watching the whole newscast, 12.5 minutes of crime and public safety news with the lovely Natalie up to her ankles in victim's blood).
There's enough goofiness going on in Chicago (AKA Defund the Police, reparations, ridiculous pension obligations with no way to pay them, problem teachers etc.) that Fox News doesn't need to tilt it one way or the other. Just play the story straight down the middle!
As to the WSJ editorial, What's wrong about it? What fact was misstated? What part of the editorial bleeds "partisan hack?" Where's the Clown Car?
Inquiring minds want to know!
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No, I'm not.
As a reasonably educated (MU grad) person, I tend to read the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, Apple's news digest and the JSOnline almost every day. Because I stream, I also get all four network Chicago television stations every night (the Lovely Allison 10 Minute Digest, aka NBC5's nightly news digest, spares me the angst of watching the whole newscast, 12.5 minutes of crime and public safety news with the lovely Natalie up to her ankles in victim's blood).
There's enough goofiness going on in Chicago (AKA Defund the Police, reparations, ridiculous pension obligations with no way to pay them, problem teachers etc.) that Fox News doesn't need to tilt it one way or the other. Just play the story straight down the middle!
Could you please provide some evidence that the Chicago Police Department has been or is being defunded? Or that reparations are being paid or planned?
Honestly, Brother dgies, you hurt your credibility when you post right-wing talking points that lack basis in reality?
Pensions? Teachers? Are these somehow problems unique to Chicago? Are there no problem teachers in Dallas? Or Mobile? Or Las Cruces?
Are there not other states with underfunded pension obligations - in some instances, worse than Illinois?
One more thing about schools ... Chicago Public Schools have improved massively over the past decade. You're living in the 90s, my friend.
https://cepa.stanford.edu/news/new-analysis-leading-education-expert-cps-students-are-learning-and-growing-faster-96-students-united-states
As to the WSJ editorial, What's wrong about it? What fact was misstated? What part of the editorial bleeds "partisan hack?" Where's the Clown Car?
Sorry, but I'm not paying to read an opinion piece from an editorial page that has, in recent years given us:
- the argument that Silicon Valley Bank collapsed because it has a Black person on its board of directors.
- declared that reports of a 10-year-old rape victim who had to leave her home state for an abortion were a hoax (they weren't)
- published - and then defended - election conspiracies they knew at the time were false
- published a false piece claiming that Joe Biden had cut and profited from a deal with a Chinese energy company. Who proved this false? The Wall Street Journal newsroom.
- published a piece claiming there would be no second wave of COVID (there was, and it was worse).
Is that Clown Car enough for you, or should I cite more examples?
If that's what you think is great journalism, so be it. I choose to spend my money elsewhere.
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One more thing about schools ... Chicago Public Schools have improved massively over the past decade. You're living in the 90s, my friend.
17 percent of African American High School Juniors are performing at grade level math and 11 percent of Hispanic students performing at 11th grade level match.
If you're rich or politically connected or gifted and can gain admission to a Magnet School, maybe. But CPS is a joke despite spending twice as much per pupil as the average for Illinois.
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17 percent of African American High School Juniors are performing at grade level math and 11 percent of Hispanic students performing at 11th grade level match.
How does this compare with large, urban school districts elsewhere?
Heck, how does it compare with small, rural districts? Districts in middle-class suburbs
Context, please.
But CPS is a joke despite spending twice as much per pupil as the average for Illinois.
Where do you get this figure?
According to Illinois State Board of Education data, CPS spent $17,107 per pupil in the 2021-22 school year. The state average was $16,029.
Links provided.
https://www.illinoisreportcard.com/district.aspx?source=profile&Districtid=15016299025
https://www.illinoisreportcard.com/State.aspx?source=environment&source2=perstudentspending&Stateid=IL
Of course, no serious person would try an apples-to-apples cost comparison between Chicago and, say, Shelbyville or Dixon, would they?
And while you're at it, what about that police defunding and reparations you were talking about?
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How does this compare with large, urban school districts elsewhere?
Heck, how does it compare with small, rural districts? Districts in middle-class suburbs
Context, please.
Where do you get this figure?
According to Illinois State Board of Education data, CPS spent $17,107 per pupil in the 2021-22 school year. The state average was $16,029.
Links provided.
https://www.illinoisreportcard.com/district.aspx?source=profile&Districtid=15016299025
https://www.illinoisreportcard.com/State.aspx?source=environment&source2=perstudentspending&Stateid=IL
Of course, no serious person would try an apples-to-apples cost comparison between Chicago and, say, Shelbyville or Dixon, would they?
And while you're at it, what about that police defunding and reparations you were talking about?
OK, Chicago's wonderful. All is well.
It's because of the Progressive Leadership of Brandon Johnson, Lori Lightfoot, Mike Madigan, the Eddies, JB Pritzker and the honest as the day is long Chicago City Council that everything in Chicago is wonderful. The schools are turning out Rhodes Scholars and the graduation rate is 99.25 percent because of enlighten educational policies and hard work of America's finest educators -- the CTU!. Chicago has the most college graduates of any big city in America because of the CTU. Everyone is going to and graduating college causing industry and commerce to beg for new sites to make investment, create jobs and spread wealth across the state.
Suburban Superintendents in Illinois are flocking to Chicago to study the CTU's methods to apply them in such substandard districts as New Trier, Glenbrook, Stevenson, Naperville, Hinsdale and Highland Park.
Citadel just announced it made a huge mistake moving to Miami. Yeah, they said, the weather is nice, but who needs nice weather when you can have enlightened government like they've had for more than a century in Illinois. Ken Griffin said last week when he announced, "just kidding" that "that goofy Ron DeSantis -- cripe, what's he going to get the Florida legislature to do to me? Make me alligator food because I don't like Cubano sandwiches? I'll take JB anytime!"
Oh, and the ads that the City of Chicago placed in the Dallas Morning News urging business to flee a low-tax, low regulation state like Texas for Illinois because Illinois offers reproductive freedom appear to be paying off. I guess I missed the announcement that Toyota is closing their New Braunfels, Texas assembly plant for a new site on the West Side of Chicago. Even Caterpillar is moving back to Illinois because, for some strange reason, nobody wants to live in Dallas.
Those 1,000 police jobs that aren't and can't be filled, that's just a made-up fiction from Fox News. Natalie Martinez from Channel 5 stands on the west and south side almost every night not in a pool of blood but in a pool of milk and honey flowing down from above, where it covers the streets paved in gold. The residents of the City of Chicago all gave up their guns and bullets -- voluntarily no less -- because the allegations of crime in Chicago are yet another fiction created by Fox News. There's no crime in Chicago and all this hubhub about carjackings, murder, assault and rape -- eeeh, jealous conservatives!
In fact, at the next City Council meeting, Aldermen are expected to pass a resolution blaming Fox News for being a Nattering Nabob of Negativity and requiring cable operators, many of whom are regulated by the City of Chicago, to drop Fox News in favor of a new network -- Good News Tonight, where anchor Allison Rosati kisses babies, lauds the wonder of prairie living and talks about her 15-year-old dog.
Look, I lived in Illinois for 44 years, 40 of which were in Metropolitan Chicago. I have a graduate degree from Loyola and my wife and I were active both in our suburb and in the city itself. I still love the region and, living in Florida, I truly miss it. Chicago and Illinois should be driving the regional and national economy with their access to water and natural resources, transportation lines, educated workforce, great universities and agricultural leadership. It's one of the few places where we could have grown both as people and as professionals as we did.
But the opportunity my wife and I had beginning in the 1980s is fleeing. You and I can argue until the cows come home as to why but the industry and commerce that should be coming to my long-time home of Chicago is instead going to places like my earlier hometown, Nashville. And Brother MU's hometown of Charlotte. Even companies that invested on the west side 10 years ago are rethinking their investment. Yeah, remote work is causing part of that, but so too is Chicago's problems that too many just simply refuse to acknowledge.
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So, rather than defend your questionable claims or answer my questions, you offer snark and straw men.
Literally nobody here has suggested Chicago is without its problems, often serious problems. Nobody here has sung the praises of Lori Lightfoot or JB Pritzker or Mike Madigan. Nobody here has praised the CTU.
Some are just tired of the often-exaggerated - and just as often false - narratives pushed by people like you, Heisey and your friends at Fox News. And it's an agenda not driven by any actual concern for Chicago or its citizens or any desire to make things better, but by a boring political agenda (among other agendas).
There's tons of room for serious, genuine discussion about problems in Chicago and other American cities, and how they can best be addressed. You're not here for that.
As Logan Roy said, "You are not serious people."
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You can disagree with him politically or think his arguments are flawed/disingenuous use of statistics, but I don't think its at all fair to frame Dgies as someone who doesn't care about Chicago or only talks about its ills to push a political agenda. He's got a litany of posts to disprove that. Thats just unnecessarily broad brushing someone in the opposite political camp, just like automatically bucketing someone right of the aisle as a Fox News enthusiast.
We can all agree that Dgies is just a distasteful and misguided pretty boy, not because of anything in that post, but because he fervently supports the Cardinals.
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You can disagree with him politically or think his arguments are flawed/disingenuous use of statistics, but I don't think its at all fair to frame Dgies as someone who doesn't care about Chicago or only talks about its ills to push a political agenda. He's got a litany of posts to disprove that. Thats just unnecessarily broad brushing someone in the opposite political camp, just like automatically bucketing someone right of the aisle as a Fox News enthusiast.
You're right about dgies being better than that, Wags. We often find a lot of insight in his comments. That's why it was disappointing that all he did was spout misleading and/or inaccurate talking points from the usual suspects.
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You can disagree with him politically or think his arguments are flawed/disingenuous use of statistics, but I don't think its at all fair to frame Dgies as someone who doesn't care about Chicago or only talks about its ills to push a political agenda. He's got a litany of posts to disprove that. Thats just unnecessarily broad brushing someone in the opposite political camp, just like automatically bucketing someone right of the aisle as a Fox News enthusiast.
We can all agree that Dgies is just a distasteful and misguided pretty boy, not because of anything in that post, but because he fervently supports the Cardinals.
Wags,
Dgies has brought a ton of interesting and insightful comments here over the years and I'm sure I've learned from him.
But not when it comes to the topic of Chicago. On that, he trades in all the usual tropes and talking points, regardless of whether they're actually, you know, true. It wasn't so long ago that in this very thread he argued that Chicago teachers don't actually care about students. Does that sound reasonable?
He's also made inaccurate statements about school spending, police funding and reparations. He's overstated the corporate losses (ICaterpillar taking 240 jobs from Deerfield apparently is awful for Chicago) yet never mentions the gains (Chicago added 441 relocations and expansions in 2021, the most in the nation). Does this sound evenhanded?
Dgies is a great poster and probably a great guy, but on this particular topic he seems most interested in pushing a narrative.
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san francisco, chicago, seattle, portland used to be really neat cities. i miss chicago and san fran especially. won't be going back very soon. not worth the risk considering the costs...too bad
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san francisco, chicago, seattle, portland used to be really neat cities. i miss chicago and san fran especially. won't be going back very soon. not worth the risk considering the costs...too bad
I’m sure the population is devastated by this development
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san francisco, chicago, seattle, portland used to be really neat cities. i miss chicago and san fran especially. won't be going back very soon. not worth the risk considering the costs...too bad
I was in San Francisco last month and it was fantastic as usual. Will be in Chicago in a couple of weeks and am expecting the same.
Too bad you allow your fears to be manipulated and you miss out on good times.
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You can disagree with him politically or think his arguments are flawed/disingenuous use of statistics, but I don't think its at all fair to frame Dgies as someone who doesn't care about Chicago or only talks about its ills to push a political agenda. He's got a litany of posts to disprove that. Thats just unnecessarily broad brushing someone in the opposite political camp, just like automatically bucketing someone right of the aisle as a Fox News enthusiast.
We can all agree that Dgies is just a distasteful and misguided pretty boy, not because of anything in that post, but because he fervently supports the Cardinals.
Brother Wags:
Thank you, especially the pretty boy part! When you get to be my age and someone calls you a pretty boy, you head gets big! LOL!!!!!!
Given the choice of being derided for my politics or choice of baseball team, the well educated clearly knows that my choice of baseball fandom is far more rooted in factual success than just about anything this side of my Marquette support!
Being a Cardinals fan isn't a liability. It's a joy that few Cubs fans will ever experience! ;D
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I was in San Francisco last month and it was fantastic as usual. Will be in Chicago in a couple of weeks and am expecting the same.
Too bad you allow your fears to be manipulated and you miss out on good times.
I can maybe understand coastal or Southern people that have never been who have this wild vision of Chicago as mid-80s Beirut, but for Midwesterners with any familiarity with Chicago, I don't know how this continues to take hold, regardless of your news source.
Yes, there are terrible parts of the city and they continue to get worse. And yes, I would even be willing to grant someone that the spread is a bit further into random incidents in "nicer" areas than 10-15 years ago. But the idea that there is any meaningful inherent "risk" in going to Chicago for anything as a visitor is just absolutely preposterous.
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I can maybe understand coastal or Southern people that have never been who have this wild vision of Chicago as mid-80s Beirut, but for Midwesterners with any familiarity with Chicago, I don't know how this continues to take hold, regardless of your news source.
Yes, there are terrible parts of the city and they continue to get worse. And yes, I would even be willing to grant someone that the spread is a bit further into random incidents in "nicer" areas than 10-15 years ago. But the idea that there is any meaningful inherent "risk" in going to Chicago for anything as a visitor is just absolutely preposterous.
First off, I'll be living in Lincoln Park from July through September. It's my annual "back home extravaganza."
Second, there's a huge difference between visiting a city and living there. Visiting a city usually means spending time in its more elegant places, staying in hotels that usually are cleaned daily and eating in very nice, locally notable restaurants. If you do something, it's going to be cultural, social or athletic events that represent the best of a city.
Living in a city means putting up with everything from 10 mile back-ups on the Kennedy into town (30 mile back-ups if you're on the 405 outside Los Angeles), homelessness, social problems, crime, taxes, schools and everything else a visitor doesn't think of. It's means taking ownership of it if you're invested in a city. Sometimes, these worlds intersect. Mostly, they don't.
Frankly, if you're afraid of Chicago, you've watched too much TV news!
I'll admit journalists love crime stories. Scaring people is an innate characteristic of newspapers and there's no better way to do it than write a greasy crime story.
But another problem is people popping off, on both sides. The Bud Light thing is one example. Either you like the beer or you don't. But that doesn't change because they sent a can with a transgendered person's face on it to that person. Likewise, I get that millions of folks don't like what our governor down here has done. But to suggest Florida is hostile to black folks is just, well, not the truth. Floridians see only one color when it comes to our millions of visitors -- green! And, I don't mean Martians!
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I can maybe understand coastal or Southern people that have never been who have this wild vision of Chicago as mid-80s Beirut, but for Midwesterners with any familiarity with Chicago, I don't know how this continues to take hold, regardless of your news source.
You are underestimating the power of propaganda, particularly long-term relentless repetition.
Sprocket has heard literally hundreds of times that San Francisco and Portland are burning HellZones. He is no longer open to learning otherwise nor would he even believe his own eyes if they contradicted the dross he has willingly, gratefully swallowed.
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Sultan,
Addressing Sultan because of his post on recent visit to SF, but really meant for everyone.
One of my best friends is 75y gay, very liberal man that has lived in SF for 25 years and has always defended the city and all of it's glory. He lives in a condo downtown, does not own a car and lives life everyday throughout the city and surrounding area and is a sound, sane voice in my life. That said, over the past two years he has routinely told me about the decline in SF, from homeless people, crime and quality of life. He actually is saddened about what SF his become and considering a possible move overseas.
My daughter who is 27y and very liberal lives in Portland and has for the past several years and loves that part of the country. While she is less gloom than my SF friend, she definitely has stated her concern about the city of Portland. She lives in area similar to Brady St. or Bay View in MKE and has had multiple bikes stolen as well as her car. She is far from an alarmist and says her level of comfort and safety has changed since she moved there.
I state both of these examples because they come from people I love and respect and have 1000% different take on many topics, especially politics, crime, safety and certain social issues. Both have surprised me because of their candid comments on their cities. Three years ago, I tried to get in disagreements over the greatness of both places and they both should have been hired for the tourism commission in their cities and now I am hearing similar words from them.
To sum it up, I think dgies is spot on with two of comments, visiting vs. living in a city and green. My SF is upset that is condo has lost value, even though he paid $250k for it 25y ago and it is still worth $1.2m and my daughter struggles to find affordable rent in a safe area. I think the only way you can truly know a city is by living there and then can make a fair judgement.
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You are underestimating the power of propaganda, particularly long-term relentless repetition.
Sprocket has heard literally hundreds of times that San Francisco and Portland are burning HellZones. He is no longer open to learning otherwise nor would he even believe his own eyes if they contradicted the dross he has willingly, gratefully swallowed.
I work in downtown Portland and it has its problems no one seemingly wants to deal with (theft, drugs, etc which is common across our entire country), but last week I went on a nice beautiful 3 mile walk across the city, encountering zero trouble. However, I do take the time to snap a picture of the skyline from my desk on nice days and crudely draw flames on the buildings to send to my relatives who text me worried about antifa. Some were legitimately worried to come to my wedding over that.
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First off, I'll be living in Lincoln Park from July through September. It's my annual "back home extravaganza."
Second, there's a huge difference between visiting a city and living there. Visiting a city usually means spending time in its more elegant places, staying in hotels that usually are cleaned daily and eating in very nice, locally notable restaurants. If you do something, it's going to be cultural, social or athletic events that represent the best of a city.
Living in a city means putting up with everything from 10 mile back-ups on the Kennedy into town (30 mile back-ups if you're on the 405 outside Los Angeles), homelessness, social problems, crime, taxes, schools and everything else a visitor doesn't think of. It's means taking ownership of it if you're invested in a city. Sometimes, these worlds intersect. Mostly, they don't.
Frankly, if you're afraid of Chicago, you've watched too much TV news!
Cool. But this -- especially your last line -- seems to run counter to your earlier posts.
Have a great time in LP. I'll be surprised if you don't.
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ZaLin
I have been to Portland many times, mostly years ago because Nike was a big customer of ours in the 1990's and loved it. I have no problem with my daughter living there, especially because is a very active outdoors person and runs, hikes and skis all over the area. I was just somewhat surprised her change of heart about Portland. Granted, she is not looking to move away, and her SUV being stolen when she unloaded her skiing gear has influenced her to some degree. That said, she definitely has a slightly different opinion today vs. three years ago.
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Sultan,
Addressing Sultan because of his post on recent visit to SF, but really meant for everyone.
One of my best friends is 75y gay, very liberal man that has lived in SF for 25 years and has always defended the city and all of it's glory. He lives in a condo downtown, does not own a car and lives life everyday throughout the city and surrounding area and is a sound, sane voice in my life. That said, over the past two years he has routinely told me about the decline in SF, from homeless people, crime and quality of life. He actually is saddened about what SF his become and considering a possible move overseas.
My daughter who is 27y and very liberal lives in Portland and has for the past several years and loves that part of the country. While she is less gloom than my SF friend, she definitely has stated her concern about the city of Portland. She lives in area similar to Brady St. or Bay View in MKE and has had multiple bikes stolen as well as her car. She is far from an alarmist and says her level of comfort and safety has changed since she moved there.
I state both of these examples because they come from people I love and respect and have 1000% different take on many topics, especially politics, crime, safety and certain social issues. Both have surprised me because of their candid comments on their cities. Three years ago, I tried to get in disagreements over the greatness of both places and they both should have been hired for the tourism commission in their cities and now I am hearing similar words from them.
To sum it up, I think dgies is spot on with two of comments, visiting vs. living in a city and green. My SF is upset that is condo has lost value, even though he paid $250k for it 25y ago and it is still worth $1.2m and my daughter struggles to find affordable rent in a safe area. I think the only way you can truly know a city is by living there and then can make a fair judgement.
Oh I agree with you completely. I was responding specifically to rocket saying its not work the risk to even VISIT Chicago or San Francisco. I am also not saying that crime isn't a problem - its ebbs and flows constantly in cities.
In the end I doubt I will be living in either one though.
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The difference between SF and Chicago is that in Chicago, for the most part, the "bad areas" are still, for the most part, away from the tourist areas. Yes, teens occasionally ransack Michigan Ave, but that is (for now) the exception
SF has addicts and homeless people living everywhere, including the tourist areas. Crime is everywhere. (My BIL is in law enforcement in SF).
No doubt 🐷🐷 will claim that SF's poop spraying squads are invented by Fox News, but they exist and should be tripled. Parts of SF smell worse than a slaughteryard or a tannery, except the smell is coming from humans.
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Need Harry Callahan to make SF great again!
Settle down...just kidding.
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Cool. But this -- especially your last line -- seems to run counter to your earlier posts.
Have a great time in LP. I'll be surprised if you don't.
Brother MU:
I've never been afraid of Chicago. I know just about every inch of the city and really am not afraid of much of anything.
Brother Goose:
One of my best clients and a really great business referral source is in Portland, so I've been out there a lot over the years. I love the city but the inability to deal with its problems is causing it to lose its luster. It isn't Antifa -- as a visitor I don't care what a city's politics are as long as I can walk or drive to where I'm going without being killed and that I feel welcome.
What's causing Portland problems is the homelessness and inability to humanely deal with it. Homelessness is a particular problem on the west coast because of the cities' temperate climate. The homeless problem has spilled over into the tourist areas. With the de-retailing of downtown Portland, it's not as appealing as it once was.
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Ziggy
Watch it. My family owned a tannery near MU campus, and I miss that smell.
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Ziggy
Watch it. My family owned a tannery near MU campus, and I miss that smell.
It's still in my nostrils from 25 years ago, Goose.
Similar to diving through Kimberly when the paper plants are in full swing. "The smell of money."
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Ziggy
Watch it. My family owned a tannery near MU campus, and I miss that smell.
You always knew which way the wind was blowing on the Marquette campus by the smell.
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South, tannery
West, Miller
ENE, Pabst.
SE, the lake
Just north of due east, Ambrosia
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Guys
A couple of little known facts on the smells in MKE. The meatpackers south of campus were worse than tanneries and Red Star Yeast was in the middle of three tanneries, including my Dad's, and that added a great deal to the mix.
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South, tannery
West, Miller
ENE, Pabst.
SE, the lake
Just north of due east, Ambrosia
I believe the west smell was the yeast plant, not Miller.
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You are underestimating the power of propaganda, particularly long-term relentless repetition.
Sprocket has heard literally hundreds of times that San Francisco and Portland are burning HellZones. He is no longer open to learning otherwise nor would he even believe his own eyes if they contradicted the dross he has willingly, gratefully swallowed.
i've been to both a few times and chicago many times. loved them years ago. it's really unfortunate what has happened to them i choose not to spend my money there. is that ok with you jack wagon? i would much rather spend my time and money where i feel it's worth my while. go ahead and join your buddys in the chit holes they've made for themselves.
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i've been to both a few times and chicago many times. loved them years ago. it's really unfortunate what has happened to them i choose not to spend my money there. is that ok with you jack wagon? i would much rather spend my time and money where i feel it's worth my while. go ahead and join your buddys in the chit holes they've made for themselves.
I’m not moving to Arizona
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I’m not moving to Arizona
excellent! we've all seen how you guys have f'd up enough of our cities as it is.
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excellent! we've all seen how you guys have f'd up enough of our cities as it is.
I like cities with water
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I like cities with water
Arizona has plenty of water.
But, enjoy Portland, hippy.
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Arizona has plenty of water.
But, enjoy Portland, hippy.
Good luck with that.
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i've been to both a few times and chicago many times. loved them years ago.
Yes, before Faux News made them culture war item #752, and you mindlessly, gleefully, swallowed every lie and asked for more.
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I’m sure the population is devastated by this development
This is why the dental conference is in nice, safe and quiet Fond du lac.
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I like cities with bong water
clarification
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clarification
Rico uses tranq.
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ZaLin
I have been to Portland many times, mostly years ago because Nike was a big customer of ours in the 1990's and loved it. I have no problem with my daughter living there, especially because is a very active outdoors person and runs, hikes and skis all over the area. I was just somewhat surprised her change of heart about Portland. Granted, she is not looking to move away, and her SUV being stolen when she unloaded her skiing gear has influenced her to some degree. That said, she definitely has a slightly different opinion today vs. three years ago.
Fair enough, there is some extra vigilance needed around car security for sure.
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I was in San Francisco last month and it was fantastic as usual. Will be in Chicago in a couple of weeks and am expecting the same.
Too bad you allow your fears to be manipulated and you miss out on good times.
My wife and I stay in downtown Chicago about once a quarter. Amtrak down and find a hotel in the city...dinner, sometimes a show...late nights and brunch before a train back. I'm amazed at people that think its dangerous or really even changed. It's Chicago. It's a city. And its way better than anything we have in Wisconsin (and most of America if I'm being honest).
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My wife and I stay in downtown Chicago about once a quarter. Amtrak down and find a hotel in the city...dinner, sometimes a show...late nights and brunch before a train back. I'm amazed at people that think its dangerous or really even changed. It's Chicago. It's a city. And its way better than anything we have in Wisconsin (and most of America if I'm being honest).
Yep.
We get to Chicago often because our son and his family still lives there. It's a bummer that they moved to the burbs a couple years ago, but we still get into the city at least once or twice every trip. Always enjoy it, never feel threatened.
Our secret (shh-don't tell anyone!): We avoid the bad areas, most of which have been bad for decades.
BTW, our son didn't move to the burbs because of crime or any other macro reason. They loved living in the city and wanted to raise their family there (just as we raised our family there). At the time, they simply couldn't find a house in their price range in their favorite neighborhoods.
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san francisco, chicago, seattle, portland used to be really neat cities. i miss chicago and san fran especially. won't be going back very soon. not worth the risk considering the costs...too bad
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate
Educate yourself, you silly old man.
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My wife and I stay in downtown Chicago about once a quarter. Amtrak down and find a hotel in the city...dinner, sometimes a show...late nights and brunch before a train back. I'm amazed at people that think its dangerous or really even changed. It's Chicago. It's a city. And its way better than anything we have in Wisconsin (and most of America if I'm being honest).
Yup
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Ziggy
Watch it. My family owned a tannery near MU campus, and I miss that smell.
You're probably the only one! :P
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You're probably the only one! :P
I wouldn’t say I miss those smells. The yeast, tannery or chocolate but it did give the city an unique character
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate
Educate yourself, you silly old man.
if i choose not to go some place whether it's little chute or saigon, it's my prerogative if that's ok. i'm not going to spend my money or time in a place i don't feel it's worth it whether that be because of safety or value.
i'm not going to make fun of you and others who feel otherwise but that's just your immaturity coming out-no surprise
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if i choose not to go some place whether it's little chute or saigon, it's my prerogative if that's ok. i'm not going to spend my money or time in a place i don't feel it's worth it whether that be because of safety or value.
i'm not going to make fun of you and others who feel otherwise but that's just your immaturity coming out-no surprise
Not a single person has suggested otherwise. It's a strawman argument to pretend that people have tried to dictate where you do or do not go.
What's laughable is your mindless repetition of the propaganda you've heard that cities are living hellscapes. Fear and outrage -- the Murdoch business model, much copied but never equaled.
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if i choose not to go some place whether it's little chute or saigon, it's my prerogative if that's ok. i'm not going to spend my money or time in a place i don't feel it's worth it whether that be because of safety or value.
i'm not going to make fun of you and others who feel otherwise but that's just your immaturity coming out-no surprise
Irony thy name is rocket.
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Irony thy name is rocket.
Isn’t ur nickname at the bathhouse “Little Chute”?
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Not a single person has suggested otherwise. It's a strawman argument to pretend that people have tried to dictate where you do or do not go.
What's laughable is your mindless repetition of the propaganda you've heard that cities are living hellscapes. Fear and outrage -- the Murdoch business model, much copied but never equaled.
🐷🐷
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate
Educate yourself, you silly old man.
Look at what happens when you get a bunch of Cardinals fans in one city.
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Isn’t ur nickname at the bathhouse “Little Chute”?
Your not ur
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Not a single person has suggested otherwise. It's a strawman argument to pretend that people have tried to dictate where you do or do not go.
What's laughable is your mindless repetition of the propaganda you've heard that cities are living hellscapes. Fear and outrage -- the Murdoch business model, much copied but never equaled.
no one has dictated anything to me smith. what's laughable is you thinking you hold court here with "CW" trying to sound astute. i pose no argument. so tell me then what hardy is trying to convey with his wikipedia crap about cities and crime rates. mindless repetition of what?
so tell me smith, how are things really in san francisco? seattle? portland? oakland? what do your girls on the view tell you? you continue to try to throw cover for the cities your people have continued to F-up over the past half century or more
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no one has dictated anything to me smith. what's laughable is you thinking you hold court here with "CW" trying to sound astute. i pose no argument. so tell me then what hardy is trying to convey with his wikipedia crap about cities and crime rates. mindless repetition of what?
What? Is there an English translation available?
so tell me smith, how are things really in san francisco? seattle? portland? oakland? what do your girls on the view tell you? you continue to try to throw cover for the cities your people have continued to F-up over the past half century or more
Thatta boy!
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What? Is there an English translation available?
Thatta boy!
can someone help out the "MU alum" here?
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Look at what happens when you get a bunch of Cardinals fans in one city.
They're driving out the Cub fans the way St. Patrick drove out the snakes from Ireland.
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no one has dictated anything to me smith. what's laughable is you thinking you hold court here with "CW" trying to sound astute. i pose no argument. so tell me then what hardy is trying to convey with his wikipedia crap about cities and crime rates. mindless repetition of what?
so tell me smith, how are things really in san francisco? seattle? portland? oakland? what do your girls on the view tell you? you continue to try to throw cover for the cities your people have continued to F-up over the past half century or more
9.5 out of 10
So glad The View has returned
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What? Is there an English translation available?
Thatta boy!
🐷🐷
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Or it is a horribly written paragraph reflecting the poor state of mainstream journalism.
And everything about this story is suspect.
So your counterpoint is that the writer is the problem and not your reading ability? It was written fine, you just tried to project what you wanted to see in it to attack a viewpoint you disagree with, and did so poorly.
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🐷🐷
(https://images2.imgbox.com/3c/85/wjbbpH8W_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/wjbbpH8W)
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(https://images2.imgbox.com/3c/85/wjbbpH8W_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/wjbbpH8W)
🙄
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So your counterpoint is that the writer is the problem and not your reading ability? It was written fine, you just tried to project what you wanted to see in it to attack a viewpoint you disagree with, and did so poorly.
The best newspapers generally aim to write for a 10th grade reading level.
For some people, that's a little steep.
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san francisco, chicago, seattle, portland used to be really neat cities. i miss chicago and san fran especially. won't be going back very soon. not worth the risk considering the costs...too bad
I had an Investment Banking client that was making a deal with a large video retailer headquartered in Oregon. We used to stay at a great old school hotel in Portland called The Benson.
A little ways down the street from The Benson was an excellent little hole in the walk establishment called Mary’s Club. Our client loved going there .
There is a fancy liberal arts college in Portland call Reed College. Some of the Reed Girls used to covertly work Marys Club to make a little coin on the side. The Club had a jukebox on stage and the girls would get coins from the audience to play the songs they would dance to.
Sometimes the girls would come out and chat with the audience on all sorts of topics ( for example philosophy or their upcoming internships)when their shift on stage was done. Was very surreal .
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(https://images2.imgbox.com/3c/85/wjbbpH8W_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/wjbbpH8W)
4.2/10
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What? Is there an English translation available?
Thatta boy!
i probably should rephrase CW(wisdom) to CDA(dumb a$$)
you reap what you sow and sow have you ever
i'll save reek oh the troubles...that's a 10.0 baby!! boo yah!
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4.2/10
But way more clever than simply replying with pig emojis for months on end.
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4.2/10
Hypocrite scale 12/10, which is merely par for you
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Oh, the irony.
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Hypocrite scale 12/10, which is merely par for you
🐷🐷
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Oh, the irony.
Words: Learn the meaning of them before you try to use them
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🐷🐷
(https://images2.imgbox.com/41/f5/y40Ds7JH_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/y40Ds7JH)
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Words: Learn the meaning of them before you try to use them
x2
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I had an Investment Banking client that was making a deal with a large video retailer headquartered in Oregon. We used to stay at a great old school hotel in Portland called The Benson.
A little ways down the street from The Benson was an excellent little hole in the walk establishment called Mary’s Club. Our client loved going there .
There is a fancy liberal arts college in Portland call Reed College. Some of the Reed Girls used to covertly work Marys Club to make a little coin on the side. The Club had a jukebox on stage and the girls would get coins from the audience to play the songs they would dance to.
Sometimes the girls would come out and chat with the audience on all sorts of topics ( for example philosophy or their upcoming internships)when their shift on stage was done. Was very surreal .
I’m happy that you had great times at Portland’s oldest strip club!
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Isn’t ur nickname at the bathhouse “Little Chute”?
Now now, you don't need to defend rocket. He's a grown man.
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no one has dictated anything to me smith. what's laughable is you thinking you hold court here with "CW" trying to sound astute. i pose no argument. so tell me then what hardy is trying to convey with his wikipedia crap about cities and crime rates. mindless repetition of what?
so tell me smith, how are things really in san francisco? seattle? portland? oakland? what do your girls on the view tell you? you continue to try to throw cover for the cities your people have continued to F-up over the past half century or more
My point was naming those cities is your bias talking rather than your knowledge.
Chicago isn't even in the top 10 for violent crime rate per capita.
As I've said, time and time again... educate yourself. Do the work, find the information, and verify it. Don't just flip on your TV, radio, or favorite podcast and take their word for it.
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Isn’t ur nickname at the bathhouse “Little Chute”?
Nah, he's Grand Chute.
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Nah, he's Grand Chute.
Ah, you know me too well. See you tomorrow!
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Interesting map of post pandemic migration
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/05/24/map-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out/?utm_email=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&g2i_eui=DXnb0FExXdjV0PYVr3%2fI0%2fzz4E3F40VX&g2i_source=newsletter&lctg=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&active=no&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.mercurynews.com%2f2023%2f05%2f24%2fmap-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out%2f&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-wednesday-morning-report-nl&utm_content=manual (https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/05/24/map-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out/?utm_email=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&g2i_eui=DXnb0FExXdjV0PYVr3%2fI0%2fzz4E3F40VX&g2i_source=newsletter&lctg=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&active=no&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.mercurynews.com%2f2023%2f05%2f24%2fmap-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out%2f&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-wednesday-morning-report-nl&utm_content=manual)
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Interesting map of post pandemic migration
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/05/24/map-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out/?utm_email=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&g2i_eui=DXnb0FExXdjV0PYVr3%2fI0%2fzz4E3F40VX&g2i_source=newsletter&lctg=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&active=no&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.mercurynews.com%2f2023%2f05%2f24%2fmap-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out%2f&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-wednesday-morning-report-nl&utm_content=manual (https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/05/24/map-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out/?utm_email=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&g2i_eui=DXnb0FExXdjV0PYVr3%2fI0%2fzz4E3F40VX&g2i_source=newsletter&lctg=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&active=no&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.mercurynews.com%2f2023%2f05%2f24%2fmap-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out%2f&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-wednesday-morning-report-nl&utm_content=manual)
Interesting data
They say my neighborhood/zip has had a net migration of -11,000 (about -15% of the population in my neighborhood). That would be very noticeable, and is highly unlikely.
Interesting way to estimate, though, based on US Postal Service change of address forms.
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Interesting map of post pandemic migration
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/05/24/map-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out/?utm_email=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&g2i_eui=DXnb0FExXdjV0PYVr3%2fI0%2fzz4E3F40VX&g2i_source=newsletter&lctg=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&active=no&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.mercurynews.com%2f2023%2f05%2f24%2fmap-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out%2f&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-wednesday-morning-report-nl&utm_content=manual (https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/05/24/map-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out/?utm_email=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&g2i_eui=DXnb0FExXdjV0PYVr3%2fI0%2fzz4E3F40VX&g2i_source=newsletter&lctg=74367572843174AE64F084CEF8&active=no&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.mercurynews.com%2f2023%2f05%2f24%2fmap-how-did-the-pandemic-exodus-impact-your-hometown-search-this-u-s-map-to-find-out%2f&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-wednesday-morning-report-nl&utm_content=manual)
Not really a great method for evaluating . The town I used to live in and the town I moved to are both 100 percent occupied at all times. Address changes are just timing differences
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The biggest office-to-residential conversion project in the US is underway
Gabriela Riccardi
Tue, May 23, 2023 at 6:00 AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-office-residential-conversion-project-100000473.html
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The biggest office-to-residential conversion project in the US is underway
Gabriela Riccardi
Tue, May 23, 2023 at 6:00 AM EDT
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-office-residential-conversion-project-100000473.html
I've talked to a number of Manhatten developers about conversions, and what they say is best captured in the final few paragraphs of this story
---
Shifting office floors into living spaces is an expensive endeavor. Reconfiguring the rooms on a floor can resemble a series of puzzles, with architects tasked to create up-to-code units with separate layouts and plumbing. Most challenges are structural: While office windows don’t have to open, apartment windows do; while office restrooms are communal, you’d be hard-pressed to find tenants who’d share a shower. Units need to be arranged around a building’s perimeter so each unit has access to natural light, leaving the center of large towers unusable. Call it a renovation Rubik’s cube.
The larger issue may not be the cost for renovators, but for renters and buyers. Developers want to convert buildings into luxury apartments, rather than more modest digs. But in a country contending with shortages in affordable housing, there isn’t a demand for luxe living.
Last year, an analysis by Moody’s called office-to-apartment conversions a “fringe trend at best,” finding that just 3% of the New York offices it tracked were feasible candidates.
“It’s much easier to theorize about office-to-residential conversions than to execute and profit on them,” the report wrote.
Why Office-to-Apartment Conversions are Likely a Fringe Trend at Best
https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-trends/office-to-apartment-conversions/
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In my travels I stay at several hotels that were former office buildings.
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In my travels I stay at several hotels that were former office buildings.
Staying at the S&M Marriott, aina?
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Another interesting article from the WSJ for those with access.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-cities-are-starting-to-thrive-again-just-not-near-office-buildings-d839798f?mod=hp_lead_pos10
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https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/taylor-swifts-chicago-soldier-field-concerts-break-chicago-hotel-record/3157392/
Don’t write Chicago off just yet….
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Only one entity was.
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Homicides Are Falling in Major American Cities
https://www.wsj.com/articles/homicides-are-falling-in-major-american-cities-7b0bd906?mod=djemwhatsnews
Homicides in some of America’s largest cities are falling after soaring during the first two years of the pandemic.
So far this year, killings are down 12% overall in nine of the 10 most populous cities compared with the same time frame last year, according to local government data.
Homicides are down in six of those cities, including 27% in Los Angeles, 22% in Houston, and 16% in Philadelphia. In Texas, the cities of Dallas, San Antonio and Austin reported slight upticks. San Diego didn’t provide data.
The 2023 data available from the cities had different end dates, ranging from April to this week.
Local officials and criminologists say conditions that drove the violence up in 2020 and 2021, such as rise in domestic disputes and a pause in gang-violence prevention programs during the pandemic, as well as a pullback in police enforcement after racial-justice protests over the murder of George Floyd, are receding.
Last year, the number of killings dropped 5% in 70 of the largest U.S. cities from 2021, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association, which represents police chiefs from large cities.
“Obviously, things got so bad, we’re slowly chipping away at it,” said Danielle Outlaw, Philadelphia’s police commissioner.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation isn’t expected to release national crime figures for 2022 until later this year. Murders rose 4% in 2021 after spiking by nearly 30% in 2020, according to the agency’s most recent data.
Some criminologists argue that the reduction in violence is tied most closely to the receding effects of the pandemic.
John Roman, a senior fellow in the Economics, Justice and Society Group at NORC at the University of Chicago, said Americans were disconnected from schools, churches, mentors and counseling, which resulted in more deadly conflicts. He said that any impacts on policing from the protests weren’t widespread.
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Homicides Are Falling in Major American Cities
https://www.wsj.com/articles/homicides-are-falling-in-major-american-cities-7b0bd906?mod=djemwhatsnews
Homicides in some of America’s largest cities are falling after soaring during the first two years of the pandemic.
So far this year, killings are down 12% overall in nine of the 10 most populous cities compared with the same time frame last year, according to local government data.
Homicides are down in six of those cities, including 27% in Los Angeles, 22% in Houston, and 16% in Philadelphia. In Texas, the cities of Dallas, San Antonio and Austin reported slight upticks. San Diego didn’t provide data.
The 2023 data available from the cities had different end dates, ranging from April to this week.
Local officials and criminologists say conditions that drove the violence up in 2020 and 2021, such as rise in domestic disputes and a pause in gang-violence prevention programs during the pandemic, as well as a pullback in police enforcement after racial-justice protests over the murder of George Floyd, are receding.
Last year, the number of killings dropped 5% in 70 of the largest U.S. cities from 2021, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association, which represents police chiefs from large cities.
“Obviously, things got so bad, we’re slowly chipping away at it,” said Danielle Outlaw, Philadelphia’s police commissioner.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation isn’t expected to release national crime figures for 2022 until later this year. Murders rose 4% in 2021 after spiking by nearly 30% in 2020, according to the agency’s most recent data.
Some criminologists argue that the reduction in violence is tied most closely to the receding effects of the pandemic.
John Roman, a senior fellow in the Economics, Justice and Society Group at NORC at the University of Chicago, said Americans were disconnected from schools, churches, mentors and counseling, which resulted in more deadly conflicts. He said that any impacts on policing from the protests weren’t widespread.
I blame climate change.
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https://nypost.com/2023/06/08/work-from-home-and-empty-offices-leading-to-doom-loop-for-nyc/
A friend of mine works for New York Life Insurance and use to commute to the city every day. The company relocated his department to Princeton which is only a 10 minute drive from his home. He said about half the workforce at the company no longer work in Manhattan. He said he has saved about 300 dollars a month just for parking and train fare. He still has to go into city about once a month for inter department meetings.
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More policing helps
Feds arrested 45 known gang members in the Twin Cities in early May.
They had known to be committing violent crimes, including murders. Let them run free for years. That’s helped with murders
Of course, assaults are up. Downtown and uptown both in rough shape.
No hope of return.
#LastDays
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More policing helps
Feds arrested 45 known gang members in the Twin Cities in early May.
They had known to be committing violent crimes, including murders. Let them run free for years. That’s helped with murders
Of course, assaults are up. Downtown and uptown both in rough shape.
No hope of return.
#LastDays
#FakeNews
Violent crime in Minneapolis began to decline last fall, and that trend has continued into 2023.
According to MPD data, carjackings are down 46% year-to-date, robbery has dropped 34%, gunshot wound victims declined nearly 38% and assaults are down 7%.
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2023/04/05/violent-crime-falling-minneapolis-police-say
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More policing helps
Feds arrested 45 known gang members in the Twin Cities in early May.
They had known to be committing violent crimes, including murders. Let them run free for years. That’s helped with murders
Of course, assaults are up. Downtown and uptown both in rough shape.
No hope of return.
#LastDays
They had been known to be committing violent crimes, including murders.
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#FakeNews
Violent crime in Minneapolis began to decline last fall, and that trend has continued into 2023.
According to MPD data, carjackings are down 46% year-to-date, robbery has dropped 34%, gunshot wound victims declined nearly 38% and assaults are down 7%.
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2023/04/05/violent-crime-falling-minneapolis-police-say
#FakeNews #Lies
Thanks for a random article Re: 2023 from over two months ago, lol
https://www.minneapolismn.gov/government/government-data/datasource/crime-dashboard/
Data through 6/8 shows assaults are up
Not to mention car thefts about double
-
From the Wall Street Journal:
Homicides Are Falling in Major American Cities
https://www.wsj.com/articles/homicides-are-falling-in-major-american-cities-7b0bd906?mod=djemwhatsnews
Homicides in some of America’s largest cities are falling after soaring during the first two years of the pandemic.
So far this year, killings are down 12% overall in nine of the 10 most populous cities compared with the same time frame last year, according to local government data.
Homicides are down in six of those cities, including 27% in Los Angeles, 22% in Houston, and 16% in Philadelphia. In Texas, the cities of Dallas, San Antonio and Austin reported slight upticks. San Diego didn’t provide data.
The 2023 data available from the cities had different end dates, ranging from April to this week.
Local officials and criminologists say conditions that drove the violence up in 2020 and 2021, such as rise in domestic disputes and a pause in gang-violence prevention programs during the pandemic, as well as a pullback in police enforcement after racial-justice protests over the murder of George Floyd, are receding.
Last year, the number of killings dropped 5% in 70 of the largest U.S. cities from 2021, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association, which represents police chiefs from large cities.
“Obviously, things got so bad, we’re slowly chipping away at it,” said Danielle Outlaw, Philadelphia’s police commissioner.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation isn’t expected to release national crime figures for 2022 until later this year. Murders rose 4% in 2021 after spiking by nearly 30% in 2020, according to the agency’s most recent data.
Some criminologists argue that the reduction in violence is tied most closely to the receding effects of the pandemic.
John Roman, a senior fellow in the Economics, Justice and Society Group at NORC at the University of Chicago, said Americans were disconnected from schools, churches, mentors and counseling, which resulted in more deadly conflicts. He said that any impacts on policing from the protests weren’t widespread.
Crime is up 40% to 50% since the Pandemic. Then guess what? This winter got colder than last winter, so crime dipped a few percent in 1H 2023. Now that it is getting warmer, crime is getting worse. Crime is still up 30% since the Pandemic.
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The premise of this thread is the upper Midwest's population is declining. What does this mean for MU? How does MU keep applications flowing for future freshman classes and continue to attract students to meet its enrollment goals?
One way is for MU to transcend the plight of the upper Midwest and become a truly national school, like Wash U in St. Louis (St. Louis might be worse than Detriot right now). Interestingly, no one has yet to answer this question. Is this because no one thinks MU can become a national university that can attract from across the country (like ND, NW, or Wash U)? Therefore it is stuck with the same problems as Depaul.
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The population MU pulls from is shrinking. The second post in this thread quotes the mayor of Milwaukee that notes the future of the City rest on its arresting its downward spiral of population loss.
A few-month dip in crime when it is 10 degrees outside is not fixing this.
And neither is Brandon Johnson.
May 3, 2023
Chicago metropolitan area population decline being addressed through revitalization projects
This Chicago metropolitan area, which includes Naperville and Elgin, saw nearly 300,000 people leave in just the last five years.
https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/
The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.
"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.
The MacArthur Foundation and UIC have studied this and found ...
June 2022
MacArthur Foundation/UIC data report analyzing Chicago Metro population trends
https://uofi.app.box.com/s/rgf5h8oc8bnjq9ua2463oolvdj23qyun/file/970584591836
Excerpts from its conclusion
If individuals vote with their feet, Chicago is losing. As we noted at the beginning of this report, Chicago is the slowest growing major city in the U.S. Thousands of Chicago residents have left the city to seek better opportunities elsewhere. In this report, we’ve documented these trends, starting from the period of massive population growth in 1920 to its dramatic decline a century later.
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Speaking of the Future of Cities ...
June 12, 2023
Hotel Owners Start to Write Off San Francisco as Business Nosedives
City’s lodging business has been squeezed by crime and other quality-of-life issues
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hotel-owners-start-to-write-off-san-francisco-as-business-nosedives-e84c64ef
San Francisco’s once thriving hotel market is suffering its worst stretch in at least 15 years, pummeled by the same forces that have emptied out the city’s office towers and closed many retail stores.
Hotel owners in New York and Los Angeles are filling nearly as many rooms this year as they did in 2019, according to hotel-data firm STR. Their revenue per available room exceeds what it was before the pandemic.
But in San Francisco, hotels are still struggling badly in both occupancy and room rates compared with before the pandemic. Revenue per available room was nearly 23% lower in April compared with the same month in 2019.
The city’s lodging business has been squeezed by crime and other quality-of-life issues that have kept many convention bookers away. Tech companies’ embrace of remote work also undercuts business travel to the city and hotel activity.
Now, a growing number of San Francisco hoteliers are signaling they may be ready to give up. In recent months, the owner of the city’s Huntington Hotel sold the property after facing foreclosure and the Yotel San Francisco hotel sold in a foreclosure auction. Club Quarters San Francisco, which has been in default on its loan since 2020, may also be headed to foreclosure, according to data company Trepp.
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And this is now one of the largest industries in the US
June 10, 2023
Retail CEOs Signal Rising Alarm as Theft Eats Away Billions in Sales
Executives and analysts discuss shrink at record rate But CEOs fear they’re largely powerless to stop shoplifting
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-10/retail-ceos-signal-rising-alarm-as-theft-eats-away-billions-in-sales
Retail executives are sounding the alarm on in-store shoplifting as theft burns a multibillion dollar hole in their balance sheets. While most are vowing to fight back, they’re also expressing fears that they may be largely powerless to stop the problem.
Shoplifting Has Become A $100 Billion Problem For Retailers
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jiawertz/2022/11/20/shoplifting-has-become-a-100-billion-problem-for-retailers/?sh=e1d105f2d624
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Crime is up 40% to 50% since the Pandemic. Then guess what? This winter got colder than last winter, so crime dipped a few percent in 1H 2023. Now that it is getting warmer, crime is getting worse. Crime is still up 30% since the Pandemic.
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The premise of this thread is the upper Midwest's population is declining. What does this mean for MU? How does MU keep applications flowing for future freshman classes and continue to attract students to meet its enrollment goals?
One way is for MU to transcend the plight of the upper Midwest and become a truly national school, like Wash U in St. Louis (St. Louis might be worse than Detriot right now). Interestingly, no one has yet to answer this question. Is this because no one thinks MU can become a national university that can attract from across the country (like ND, NW, or Wash U)? Therefore it is stuck with the same problems as Depaul.
---
The population MU pulls from is shrinking. The second post in this thread quotes the mayor of Milwaukee that notes the future of the City rest on its arresting its downward spiral of population loss.
A few-month dip in crime when it is 10 degrees outside is not fixing this.
And neither is Brandon Johnson.
May 3, 2023
Chicago metropolitan area population decline being addressed through revitalization projects
This Chicago metropolitan area, which includes Naperville and Elgin, saw nearly 300,000 people leave in just the last five years.
https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/
The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.
"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.
The MacArthur Foundation and UIC have studied this and found ...
June 2022
MacArthur Foundation/UIC data report analyzing Chicago Metro population trends
https://uofi.app.box.com/s/rgf5h8oc8bnjq9ua2463oolvdj23qyun/file/970584591836
Excerpts from its conclusion
If individuals vote with their feet, Chicago is losing. As we noted at the beginning of this report, Chicago is the slowest growing major city in the U.S. Thousands of Chicago residents have left the city to seek better opportunities elsewhere. In this report, we’ve documented these trends, starting from the period of massive population growth in 1920 to its dramatic decline a century later.
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Nads disagrees just because he loves Chi-town.
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Nads disagrees just because he loves Chi-town.
I love Chicago too, but you cannot argue with what's happening there. The blue collar growth that fueled the city from the arrival of the railroads until the 1960s is largely gone. The jobs either moved overseas, went south or were replaced with automation (the last option being the most significant factor). Whole plants closed because they simply weren't needed.
Cities are, in many ways, living organisms. They go through cycles of growth, sputtering and decay. Unless they are periodically re-energized, they become Rockford, Flint, Youngstown, Detroit, etc. Even San Francisco which, if you told me 25 years ago would have the issues it is having, I would have laughed, is decaying. It takes innovative political leadership coupled with a firm commitment from the private sector, to make a city grow.
San Francisco's decay, like that of Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and even Milwaukee, begins and ends with corporate commitment. When millions of square feet of office spaced is empty, corporate commitment wanes. The willingness to do something and participate in civic life gives way because, frankly, corporate leaders don't encounter problems every day if they don't go into an office.
The commitment isn't something that comes from taxation to regulation. It comes from a voluntary commitment to be and do better.
As a final thought, my biggest understanding of the public/private partnership arose from employment in Milwaukee with a firm headquartered there. Our company was a huge supporter of the United Performing Arts Fund ("UPAF") and pushed for both Miller/AmFam Park and the Bradley Center. Their argument was that Milwaukee was competing against Chicago, New York, Minneapolis, Dallas and a host of other major cities for talent. Without an MLB team, without the Bucks or without the civic and cultural opportunities Milwaukee offers, people won't come there to work, build a career and invest in their future.
I could not agree more.
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The Chicago metro increased in population between 2010 and 2020. I'm sure it will do the same in 2030.
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The Chicago metro increased in population between 2010 and 2020. I'm sure it will do the same in 2030.
This is the wrong metric and largely irrelevant.
Every single metro area in the country has increased between 2010 and 2020. But which one grew the slowest? See the MacArthur link/conclusion above ... it was Chicago.
Further, the worry is more about the post-pandemic period, not what happened 13 to 3 years ago.
Chicago lags behind every other metro area in the country. Chicago is falling behind every other metro area in the country.
This is a major problem.
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This is the wrong metric and largely irrelevant.
Every single metro area in the country has increased between 2010 and 2020. But which one grew the slowest? See the MacArthur link/conclusion above ... it was Chicago.
Further, the worry is more about the post-pandemic period, not what happened 13 to 3 years ago.
Chicago lags behind every other metro area in the country. Chicago is falling behind every other metro area in the country.
This is a major problem.
Not really
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This is the wrong metric and largely irrelevant.
It actually is the right metric and completely relevant. But you don't want to use it because it doesn't support your point. People are acting like the entire area is in some sort of decay. It isn't. It will likely continue to grow because it is a vibrant area with a diverse economy. (Unlike Rockford, Flint and Youngstown.)
Is it growing as fast as others? No. Will it fall behind places like DFW in the next couple of decades? Perhaps.
But these are the same dire predictions people made when LA passed up Chicago a few decades ago - and yet here Chicago remains with nearly 10 million people in the metro.
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I love Chicago too, but you cannot argue with what's happening there. The blue collar growth that fueled the city from the arrival of the railroads until the 1960s is largely gone. The jobs either moved overseas, went south or were replaced with automation (the last option being the most significant factor). Whole plants closed because they simply weren't needed.
Cities are, in many ways, living organisms. They go through cycles of growth, sputtering and decay. Unless they are periodically re-energized, they become Rockford, Flint, Youngstown, Detroit, etc. Even San Francisco which, if you told me 25 years ago would have the issues it is having, I would have laughed, is decaying. It takes innovative political leadership coupled with a firm commitment from the private sector, to make a city grow.
San Francisco's decay, like that of Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and even Milwaukee, begins and ends with corporate commitment. When millions of square feet of office spaced is empty, corporate commitment wanes. The willingness to do something and participate in civic life gives way because, frankly, corporate leaders don't encounter problems every day if they don't go into an office.
The commitment isn't something that comes from taxation to regulation. It comes from a voluntary commitment to be and do better.
As a final thought, my biggest understanding of the public/private partnership arose from employment in Milwaukee with a firm headquartered there. Our company was a huge supporter of the United Performing Arts Fund ("UPAF") and pushed for both Miller/AmFam Park and the Bradley Center. Their argument was that Milwaukee was competing against Chicago, New York, Minneapolis, Dallas and a host of other major cities for talent. Without an MLB team, without the Bucks or without the civic and cultural opportunities Milwaukee offers, people won't come there to work, build a career and invest in their future.
I could not agree more.
I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.
But who is extolling the city's virtues... a bunch of suburbanites who would never consider living or raising their families there.
To them, Chicago is Wrigleyville, Bears games, and neat eateries. They encourage their college graduate children to move to "Disneyland" for a few years after college to "have fun."
But when it is time to get serious, that is, get married and have kids, they move out of the city.
The key is to make the city livable for the middle class. The massive de-population is telling you it is not. The metro Chicago area is growing slower than any place in the country is telling you it is not either.
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And all of this flows back to MU as a problem.
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I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.
But who is extolling the city's virtues... a bunch of suburbanites who would never consider living or raising their families there.
To them, Chicago is Wrigleyville, Bears games, and neat eateries. They encourage their college graduate children to move to "Disneyland" for a few years after college to "have fun."
But when it is time to get serious, that is, get married and have kids, they move out of the city.
The key is to make the city livable for the middle class. The massive de-population is telling you it is not. The metro Chicago area is growing slower than any place in the country is telling you it is not either.
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And all of this flows back to MU as a problem.
Not really
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Sounds like an opportunity.
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Sounds like an opportunity.
Some people see opportunities, some people dwell in the negative.
Some people see solutions, some people search for more problems
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I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.
But who is extolling the city's virtues... a bunch of suburbanites who would never consider living or raising their families there.
To them, Chicago is Wrigleyville, Bears games, and neat eateries. They encourage their college graduate children to move to "Disneyland" for a few years after college to "have fun."
But when it is time to get serious, that is, get married and have kids, they move out of the city.
Nothin's gonna change if those in da city keep votin' in da same weak, lame ass, brainless politicians who are content to ram der sorry agendas up everyone's tuchus, aina?
The key is to make the city livable for the middle class. The massive de-population is telling you it is not. The metro Chicago area is growing slower than any place in the country is telling you it is not either.
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And all of this flows back to MU as a problem.
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It actually is the right metric and completely relevant. But you don't want to use it because it doesn't support your point. People are acting like the entire area is in some sort of decay. It isn't. It will likely continue to grow because it is a vibrant area with a diverse economy. (Unlike Rockford, Flint and Youngstown.)
Is it growing as fast as others? No. Will it fall behind places like DFW in the next couple of decades? Perhaps.
But these are the same dire predictions people made when LA passed up Chicago a few decades ago - and yet here Chicago remains with nearly 10 million people in the metro.
empty words
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Some people see opportunities, some people dwell in the negative.
Some people see solutions, some people search for more problems
not really
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empty words
"I have no response because of my predetermined point of view."
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I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.
But who is extolling the city's virtues... a bunch of suburbanites who would never consider living or raising their families there.
To them, Chicago is Wrigleyville, Bears games, and neat eateries. They encourage their college graduate children to move to "Disneyland" for a few years after college to "have fun."
But when it is time to get serious, that is, get married and have kids, they move out of the city.
The key is to make the city livable for the middle class. The massive de-population is telling you it is not. The metro Chicago area is growing slower than any place in the country is telling you it is not either.
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And all of this flows back to MU as a problem.
Oh my God...people are moving out to the suburbs to buy a house and raise a family? Since when??? How long has this been happening????
And no...it's hardly a problem for Marquette.
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Cities having problems in 2023.
Rural America having problems in 2023.
Suburbs having problems in 2023.
Stunning developments.
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I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.
Move out to Idaho and bunk with Chico. A win/win.
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Move out to Idaho and bunk with Chico. A win/win.
No room. Hoopaloop and at least three others are already there
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This is the wrong metric and largely irrelevant.
Every single metro area in the country has increased between 2010 and 2020. But which one grew the slowest? See the MacArthur link/conclusion above ... it was Chicago.
Further, the worry is more about the post-pandemic period, not what happened 13 to 3 years ago.
Chicago lags behind every other metro area in the country. Chicago is falling behind every other metro area in the country.
This is a major problem.
Your supposed premise for this thread is that Chicago is allegedly dying and that will result in MU being hurt because they won't be able to pull as many students from Chicago metro.
If that's the premise, why wouldn't total population growth be the correct method? As far as I am aware, Marquette is not attempting to significantly grow its undergrad population. So if the amount of students Marquette needs to recruit is static, and it's largest recruiting ground is growing (though at a slower rate than other metros), how does that spell doom for Marquette? It sounds like there will be more students to recruit for the same number of spots.
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I thought the premise was that Chicago wasn't growing at all?
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No room. Hoopaloop and at least three others are already there
this is outstanding. However, they can all co-exist in very limited physical space, so not really a problem.
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The Chicago metro increased in population between 2010 and 2020. I'm sure it will do the same in 2030.
On what planet? Or, how how do you define growth?
Since 1970, the country has added about 130 million citizens. In that time, the City of Chicago has at best flattened out at between 2.8 million and 3.0 million residents and the Metro Area at between 7.5 million and 8.0 million. The comparative lack of growth has cost Illinois dearly in terms of Congressional delegation and political influence.
The fact that Chicago and Illinois no longer have a viable Republican party also is killing it whenever the GOP takes control of the federal government.
Ya'll can sit there an argue statistics. While you do, Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas-Ft.Worth, Houston, Charlotte, Miami and Orlando are all increasing in population at levels at or above the national average. When I was young and in Nashville, for example, Davidson County ahd 444,600 people and the MSA had about 650,000. There's about 2.4 million people living in the Nashville-Davidson MSA now. Chicago hasn't grown like that in more than 100-years despite having better transportation, more natural resources, far more water and strong corporate citizens.
What Nashville has that Chicago and Illinois don't is an accommodating government, low taxes and a right to work state.
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On what planet? Or, how how do you define growth?
It is factually correct that the Chicago Metropolitan Area had more people in 2020 than it did in 2010. That's not "arguing statistics." That's a fact.
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On what planet? Or, how how do you define growth?
Since 1970, the country has added about 130 million citizens. In that time, the City of Chicago has at best flattened out at between 2.8 million and 3.0 million residents and the Metro Area at between 7.5 million and 8.0 million. The comparative lack of growth has cost Illinois dearly in terms of Congressional delegation and political influence.
On this planet.
In 1970, the Chicago Metro Area had ~7,106,000 people
In 2010, the Chicago Metro Area had ~8,616,000 people (net gain of ~1,490,000 people from 1970)
In 2020, the Chicago Metro Area had ~8,865,000 people (net gain of ~249,000 people from 2010)
This was all Sultan stated. No one has disputed that the city of Chicago has lost population or that the metro area is growing at a slower rate than most other metropolitan areas. What is disputed is how much of a problem this is for MU.
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What Nashville has is an accommodating government, low taxes and a right to work state.
Any sources to back up your assertion that the above is what's driving Nashville's population growth?
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It is factually correct that the Chicago Metropolitan Area had more people in 2020 than it did in 2010. That's not "arguing statistics." That's a fact.
And according to ABCTV data team, it has lost 300,000 people since.
The population was the slowest growing in the country, now it is reversing.
So to quote you... Take the L so that everyone will stop dunking on you.
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On this planet.
In 1970, the Chicago Metro Area had ~7,106,000 people
In 2010, the Chicago Metro Area had ~8,616,000 people (net gain of ~1,490,000 people from 1970)
In 2020, the Chicago Metro Area had ~8,865,000 people (net gain of ~249,000 people from 2010)
This was all Sultan stated. No one has disputed that the city of Chicago has lost population or that the metro area is growing at a slower rate than most other metropolitan areas. What is disputed is how much of a problem this is for MU.
You do realize their was an event called a pandemic in 2020 and it changed a lot of things. Including working from home, crime and population migration.
Sultan is using historical stats that no longer apply. He is doing it on purpose.
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And according to ABCTV data team, it has lost 300,000 people since.
The population was the slowest growing in the country, now it is reversing.
So to quote you... Take the L so that everyone will stop dunking on you.
You do realize their was an event called a pandemic in 2020 and it changed a lot of things. Including working from home, crime and population migration.
Sultan is using historical stats that no longer apply. He is doing it on purpose.
2020: ~8,865,000
2021: ~8,877,000 (~increase of 12,000)
2022: ~8,901,000 (~increase of 24,000)
2023: ~8,937,000 (~increase of 36,000)
https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22956/chicago/population#:~:text=The%20current%20metro%20area%20population,a%200.14%25%20increase%20from%202020.
You've brought up the ABC article before. I'd need to see how exactly they collected their data. Examining change of address forms doesn't seem like the most accurate method for determining actual growth (For example this only accounts for people moving in and out of the metro area, not new people being born/dying inside the metro).
If the Chicago metro area has actually lost close to 300K people in 5 years (that start actually predates the start of the pandemic and the 2020 census) than that could be a problem for MU if that trend continues. I'm skeptical that this is a true figure.
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And according to ABCTV data team, it has lost 300,000 people since.
The population was the slowest growing in the country, now it is reversing.
So to quote you... Take the L so that everyone will stop dunking on you.
Lol. I’m quoting facts. You make sh*t up.
Sorry the truth is difficult for you to manage.
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Any sources to back up your assertion that the above is what's driving Nashville's population growth?
Look it up dude.
I know the answer because I lived there. Maybe you will learn something!
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Look it up dude.
I know the answer because I lived there. Maybe you will learn something!
Lol.
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Look it up dude.
I know the answer because I lived there. Maybe you will learn something!
A liberal city in the South? A perfect recipe for growth. And yes, the city government is accommodating, as opposed to state gov't.
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A liberal city in the South? A perfect recipe for growth. And yes, the city government is accommodating, as opposed to state gov't.
Don’t worry, the state government of Tennessee is doing everything they can to slow that growth down in Nashville
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A liberal city in the South? A perfect recipe for growth. And yes, the city government is accommodating, as opposed to state gov't.
I'm making the assumption his reference to "accommodating government" is not about the city since he says right to work "state" in the same statement.
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Look it up dude.
I know the answer because I lived there. Maybe you will learn something!
You made the claim. Just looking for some data or source behind the claim.
If it's your opinion or anecdotal, no problem.
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I appreciate Heisy's challenge to our thinking about cities. I think he omits climate change from his factoring. Where is all the fresh water? Who will control it? When the sea level impacts New York, DC, Florida, NOLA, Houston, where will they go? When Phoenix is uninhabitable, where will they go?
Those traditional rust belt cities will look pretty good.
Also, demographics are about to change. The boomers are going to die. What do Y,Z, and Millenials want? What are they going to do about their debt?
So, thanks, Heisie. I don't think your analysis factors everything.
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I appreciate Heisy's challenge to our thinking about cities. I think he omits climate change from his factoring. Where is all the fresh water? Who will control it? When the sea level impacts New York, DC, Florida, NOLA, Houston, where will they go? When Phoenix is uninhabitable, where will they go?
Those traditional rust belt cities will look pretty good.
Also, demographics are about to change. The boomers are going to die. What do Y,Z, and Millenials want? What are they going to do about their debt?
So, thanks, Heisie. I don't think your analysis factors everything.
Shocking.
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I'm making the assumption his reference to "accommodating government" is not about the city since he says right to work "state" in the same statement.
I figured he was praising the state when he talked about government. That is why I specifically mentioned Nashville politics.
Good to see I read the post the same way as you and Unc.
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2020: ~8,865,000
2021: ~8,877,000 (~increase of 12,000)
2022: ~8,901,000 (~increase of 24,000)
2023: ~8,937,000 (~increase of 36,000)
https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22956/chicago/population#:~:text=The%20current%20metro%20area%20population,a%200.14%25%20increase%20from%202020.
You've brought up the ABC article before. I'd need to see how exactly they collected their data. Examining change of address forms doesn't seem like the most accurate method for determining actual growth (For example this only accounts for people moving in and out of the metro area, not new people being born/dying inside the metro).
If the Chicago metro area has actually lost close to 300K people in 5 years (that start actually predates the start of the pandemic and the 2020 census) than that could be a problem for MU if that trend continues. I'm skeptical that this is a true figure.
Macrotrends uses UN population projections.
https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf
They base this on a model of birth/death and known migration patterns for 1758 population units.
At the top level, it is very accurate, that is, world or country-level population. After that, it can miss badly on the subsets (such as Chicago metro data) and can be missed by as much as 6%.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2011/01/how-accurate-are-population-forecasts.html
And this is key; these estimates are made using pre-covid data.
And they already have the estimate out to 2037, as your link shows. So, if that is to be believed as accurate, we already have the next 15 years done now.
So, no one was counted for these estimates. It was just apportioning the world estimate down to country and metro areas.
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Regarding the ABC Data ...
https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/
The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.
"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.
Florida and Texas are top destinations. Black residents are mostly heading to Georgia.
"The rent burden of the Black community is, for example, very high. They are paying a lot more than 30% of their income on rent," Arenas said.
Moore's former Auburn Gresham neighborhood was hit particularly hard, losing the most residents in recent years: 17,000 Black residents from 1990 to 2020. About one-third have left in the last 10 years.
Another study shows that Cook County lost 68,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, according to recent US Census estimates. Only Los Angeles County in California saw a bigger population decline.
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Sultan mocked the idea that people leave the city when they get married and start having kids. He is correct that has been the case for 50 years.
But what has changed is the highlighted part. They are not leaving for the suburbs; they are leaving the state.
And this is the key., It is middle-class and poor minorities that are leaving.
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Macrotrends uses UN population projections.
https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf
They base this on a model of birth/death and known migration patterns for 1758 population units.
At the top level, it is very accurate, that is, world or country-level population. After that, it can miss badly on the subsets (such as Chicago metro data) and can be missed by as much as 6%.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2011/01/how-accurate-are-population-forecasts.html
And this is key; these estimates are made using pre-covid data.
And they already have the estimate out to 2037, as your link shows. So, if that is to be believed as accurate, we already have the next 15 years done now.
So, no one was counted for these estimates. It was just apportioning the world estimate down to country and metro areas.
--------
Regarding the ABC Data ...
https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/
The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.
"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.
Florida and Texas are top destinations. Black residents are mostly heading to Georgia.
"The rent burden of the Black community is, for example, very high. They are paying a lot more than 30% of their income on rent," Arenas said.
Moore's former Auburn Gresham neighborhood was hit particularly hard, losing the most residents in recent years: 17,000 Black residents from 1990 to 2020. About one-third have left in the last 10 years.
Another study shows that Cook County lost 68,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, according to recent US Census estimates. Only Los Angeles County in California saw a bigger population decline.
----
Sultan mocked the idea that people leave the city when they get married and start having kids. He is correct that has been the case for 50 years.
But what has changed is the highlighted part. They are not leaving for the suburbs; they are leaving the state.
And this is the key., It is middle-class and poor minorities that are leaving.
Cool
-
President Lovell has already stated that MU is being hurt by the de-population of the Midwest.
It is a serious problem and thankfully those is charge are taking it seriously.
=======
https://eu.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2020/12/01/marquette-layoffs-enrollment-declines-raise-questions-diversity/6180047002/
Many universities had a broken business model — raising tuition with one hand, then slashing it through financial aid discounts with the other. Schools facing enrollment declines and other challenges were merging or closing entirely. Students were taking on more debt while questioning if college was worth the cost. In April 2019, the polling firm Gallup declared "a crisis in confidence in higher ed."
"Higher ed was ripe for disruption," said Michael Lovell, president of Marquette University.
This fall, Lovell announced that the financial strains caused by the pandemic combined with projected future enrollment declines had left the university with a $45 million budget hole beginning in 2022 and beyond.
The university needed to "right-size" for a future in which, experts predict, there will be fewer high school graduates to recruit.
Marquette would need to be smaller, Lovell said. The university would need to invest more in online education, high-demand programs like health sciences, data and computer science and some business programs, and partnerships with local employers and other universities.
The estimated loss translated to the potential layoffs of 225 to 300-plus employees — numbers that rattled the school's 2,811-person workforce.
The debate over Marquette's future is a case study on the difficult questions universities face in today's environment.
----
Marquette — which as Wisconsin's largest private college enrolls 11,550 students — this fall saw its smallest freshman class in more than two decades, according to university data. The class has 1,647 students, 350 students fewer than the university had expected. The decline is in line with a 16% decline among first-year students nationwide.
"To think that there is an easy way to get out of this, other than structurally changing, I believe is not realistic," Lovell said. "We are going to do everything we can to preserve who we are and what we do, but we also have to deal with the realities of what's happening in our industry."
---
Much of the debate over future enrollment declines at Marquette has centered around a 2018 book called "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education" by Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe.
The book predicts regional enrollment declines by analyzing birth rates, migration patterns and other factors that might determine if people will attend college, such as gender, race, family income and whether students' parents went to college.
Grawe predicts the Midwest could see a 15% enrollment decline starting around 2026. That's because, beginning around 2008, many families who would have sent their children to college delayed having kids, resulting in a decline in high school graduates in the near future.
At Marquette, the debate is less around the reality of Grawe's predictions than it is about what to do in response. Should the university expand its reach? Shrink in size? Or some combination of the two?
"These are really challenging questions," Grawe said. "Neither of them have obvious answers, certainly not answers that are going to be true for every institution."
At Marquette, faculty are raising fundamental questions about what it really means to say there will be fewer "traditional" college students to recruit from. Many point out that — despite recent diversification — most of Marquette's student body is white and the university recruits heavily from middle- and upper-class Chicago suburbs.
----
No easy answers
Much of the debate at Marquette comes back to questions of what type of institution the university can and should aim to be.
Who are the students it should recruit? What types of programs and majors should it offer? How should it embody its Jesuit, Catholic mission?
Marquette's Jesuit community weighed in recently on the last question, encouraging Lovell's team and the board of trustees to consider the university's mission alongside the need to reduce costs.
In an open letter, the Rev. Gregory O'Meara, rector of the university's Jesuit community, described the university's mission through the type of graduate Marquette should aim to produce: Those with a holistic education of the physical and spiritual subjects, who pose big, difficult questions the the wider world and who "have a heart for those who suffer in this world."
Key to all of this, O'Meara wrote, is a grounding in the humanities — subjects like philosophy, literature, law, history and cultural studies — that teach them about human society and culture.
"At its fundamental level Marquette cannot simply figure out how much money it has and then decide where to spend it," he wrote. "Rather, it must articulate robust values rooted in the history of the Society of Jesus and in Marquette's own founding documents."
Lovell and his team say maintaining that mission is at the forefront of their deliberations, and a commitment to the university's Catholic, Jesuit roots is critical to efforts to distinguish the university among other choices for prospective students.
On the question of improving the diversity of the student body, Lovell noted that even with this fall's enrollment decline, Marquette has seen strong numbers of students of color and first-generation students enroll. They made up 30% and 22% of this fall's freshman class, respectively.
In fall 2019, 14% of Marquette's undergraduate student body was Hispanic/Latino, 4% was Black, 7% Asian and 68% white, according to data from the U.S. Department of Education.
The university gave out $33 million in scholarships to Hispanic students this year, Lovell said, as it works toward achieving the threshold — 25% of the student body — that is necessary to qualify as a "Hispanic-Serving Institution," a federal designation that unlocks additional grants for the university and its students.
Lovell said Marquette must raise more funding for scholarships and invest in support services that help students of color and first-generation students thrive in college and graduate within four years.
The current financial challenges, he said, are slowing progress down.
"It's easy for people to say that maybe you're backing away from (diversity efforts), but I can tell you that when you're in a crisis, there are a lot of things that you're worrying about," Lovell said. "Those things are still important to us, but sometimes you have to react to the things that are right in front of you."
Sergio González, who came to Marquette three years ago as the school's first professor of Latinx studies, said the basis of the argument for downsizing doesn't match up with the commitment to expand the university's reach into underserved communities.
"There's this cognitive dissonance that we're saying we can't reach the students that we need to make Marquette what it needs to be, while at the same time the university is talking about how it wants to diversify its student population to be more representative of the community in which we live," he said.
-
President Lovell has already stated that MU is being hurt by the de-population of the Midwest.
It is a serious problem and thankfully those is charge are taking it seriously.
=======
https://eu.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2020/12/01/marquette-layoffs-enrollment-declines-raise-questions-diversity/6180047002/
Many universities had a broken business model — raising tuition with one hand, then slashing it through financial aid discounts with the other. Schools facing enrollment declines and other challenges were merging or closing entirely. Students were taking on more debt while questioning if college was worth the cost. In April 2019, the polling firm Gallup declared "a crisis in confidence in higher ed."
"Higher ed was ripe for disruption," said Michael Lovell, president of Marquette University.
This fall, Lovell announced that the financial strains caused by the pandemic combined with projected future enrollment declines had left the university with a $45 million budget hole beginning in 2022 and beyond.
The university needed to "right-size" for a future in which, experts predict, there will be fewer high school graduates to recruit.
Marquette would need to be smaller, Lovell said. The university would need to invest more in online education, high-demand programs like health sciences, data and computer science and some business programs, and partnerships with local employers and other universities.
The estimated loss translated to the potential layoffs of 225 to 300-plus employees — numbers that rattled the school's 2,811-person workforce.
The debate over Marquette's future is a case study on the difficult questions universities face in today's environment.
----
Marquette — which as Wisconsin's largest private college enrolls 11,550 students — this fall saw its smallest freshman class in more than two decades, according to university data. The class has 1,647 students, 350 students fewer than the university had expected. The decline is in line with a 16% decline among first-year students nationwide.
"To think that there is an easy way to get out of this, other than structurally changing, I believe is not realistic," Lovell said. "We are going to do everything we can to preserve who we are and what we do, but we also have to deal with the realities of what's happening in our industry."
---
Much of the debate over future enrollment declines at Marquette has centered around a 2018 book called "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education" by Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe.
The book predicts regional enrollment declines by analyzing birth rates, migration patterns and other factors that might determine if people will attend college, such as gender, race, family income and whether students' parents went to college.
Grawe predicts the Midwest could see a 15% enrollment decline starting around 2026. That's because, beginning around 2008, many families who would have sent their children to college delayed having kids, resulting in a decline in high school graduates in the near future.
At Marquette, the debate is less around the reality of Grawe's predictions than it is about what to do in response. Should the university expand its reach? Shrink in size? Or some combination of the two?
"These are really challenging questions," Grawe said. "Neither of them have obvious answers, certainly not answers that are going to be true for every institution."
At Marquette, faculty are raising fundamental questions about what it really means to say there will be fewer "traditional" college students to recruit from. Many point out that — despite recent diversification — most of Marquette's student body is white and the university recruits heavily from middle- and upper-class Chicago suburbs.
----
No easy answers
Much of the debate at Marquette comes back to questions of what type of institution the university can and should aim to be.
Who are the students it should recruit? What types of programs and majors should it offer? How should it embody its Jesuit, Catholic mission?
Marquette's Jesuit community weighed in recently on the last question, encouraging Lovell's team and the board of trustees to consider the university's mission alongside the need to reduce costs.
In an open letter, the Rev. Gregory O'Meara, rector of the university's Jesuit community, described the university's mission through the type of graduate Marquette should aim to produce: Those with a holistic education of the physical and spiritual subjects, who pose big, difficult questions the the wider world and who "have a heart for those who suffer in this world."
Key to all of this, O'Meara wrote, is a grounding in the humanities — subjects like philosophy, literature, law, history and cultural studies — that teach them about human society and culture.
"At its fundamental level Marquette cannot simply figure out how much money it has and then decide where to spend it," he wrote. "Rather, it must articulate robust values rooted in the history of the Society of Jesus and in Marquette's own founding documents."
Lovell and his team say maintaining that mission is at the forefront of their deliberations, and a commitment to the university's Catholic, Jesuit roots is critical to efforts to distinguish the university among other choices for prospective students.
On the question of improving the diversity of the student body, Lovell noted that even with this fall's enrollment decline, Marquette has seen strong numbers of students of color and first-generation students enroll. They made up 30% and 22% of this fall's freshman class, respectively.
In fall 2019, 14% of Marquette's undergraduate student body was Hispanic/Latino, 4% was Black, 7% Asian and 68% white, according to data from the U.S. Department of Education.
The university gave out $33 million in scholarships to Hispanic students this year, Lovell said, as it works toward achieving the threshold — 25% of the student body — that is necessary to qualify as a "Hispanic-Serving Institution," a federal designation that unlocks additional grants for the university and its students.
Lovell said Marquette must raise more funding for scholarships and invest in support services that help students of color and first-generation students thrive in college and graduate within four years.
The current financial challenges, he said, are slowing progress down.
"It's easy for people to say that maybe you're backing away from (diversity efforts), but I can tell you that when you're in a crisis, there are a lot of things that you're worrying about," Lovell said. "Those things are still important to us, but sometimes you have to react to the things that are right in front of you."
Sergio González, who came to Marquette three years ago as the school's first professor of Latinx studies, said the basis of the argument for downsizing doesn't match up with the commitment to expand the university's reach into underserved communities.
"There's this cognitive dissonance that we're saying we can't reach the students that we need to make Marquette what it needs to be, while at the same time the university is talking about how it wants to diversify its student population to be more representative of the community in which we live," he said.
Cool
-
Macrotrends uses UN population projections.
https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf
They base this on a model of birth/death and known migration patterns for 1758 population units.
At the top level, it is very accurate, that is, world or country-level population. After that, it can miss badly on the subsets (such as Chicago metro data) and can be missed by as much as 6%.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2011/01/how-accurate-are-population-forecasts.html
And this is key; these estimates are made using pre-covid data.
And they already have the estimate out to 2037, as your link shows. So, if that is to be believed as accurate, we already have the next 15 years done now.
So, no one was counted for these estimates. It was just apportioning the world estimate down to country and metro areas.
--------
Regarding the ABC Data ...
https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/
The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.
"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.
Florida and Texas are top destinations. Black residents are mostly heading to Georgia.
"The rent burden of the Black community is, for example, very high. They are paying a lot more than 30% of their income on rent," Arenas said.
Moore's former Auburn Gresham neighborhood was hit particularly hard, losing the most residents in recent years: 17,000 Black residents from 1990 to 2020. About one-third have left in the last 10 years.
Another study shows that Cook County lost 68,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, according to recent US Census estimates. Only Los Angeles County in California saw a bigger population decline.
----
Sultan mocked the idea that people leave the city when they get married and start having kids. He is correct that has been the case for 50 years.
But what has changed is the highlighted part. They are not leaving for the suburbs; they are leaving the state.
And this is the key., It is middle-class and poor minorities that are leaving.
To be clear, Macrotrends uses UN Projections for future years. It uses UN estimates for current and past years. Those are two different processes, and as you can imagine, estimates are more accurate than projections.
As for the ABC study again I would need to analyze their method before drawing any conclusions. Looking at post office change of address forms is an incomplete way of measuring population change. If a net of 300,000 people moved away but a net of 300,001 people were added via birth/death rate within the metro, the metro area grew and that's just one limitation of that methodology.
I am very familiar with Grawe's work, he's actually been talking about this a lot longer than his 2018 book. I was hearing about him back in grad school in 2013. He is very focused on demographic changes but also speaks a lot about how cost of college has far outpaced wages and that being a driving factor for less people going to universities, specifically private ones. Pay more to earn less. If you had titled your thread "the future of the Midwest" we probably would have had a lot more common ground. I think Marquette is well aware of future challenges and has taken appropriate steps to mitigate them. All without moving their campus to another city.
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On what planet? Or, how how do you define growth?
Since 1970, the country has added about 130 million citizens. In that time, the City of Chicago has at best flattened out at between 2.8 million and 3.0 million residents and the Metro Area at between 7.5 million and 8.0 million. The comparative lack of growth has cost Illinois dearly in terms of Congressional delegation and political influence.
The fact that Chicago and Illinois no longer have a viable Republican party also is killing it whenever the GOP takes control of the federal government.
Ya'll can sit there an argue statistics. While you do, Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas-Ft.Worth, Houston, Charlotte, Miami and Orlando are all increasing in population at levels at or above the national average. When I was young and in Nashville, for example, Davidson County ahd 444,600 people and the MSA had about 650,000. There's about 2.4 million people living in the Nashville-Davidson MSA now. Chicago hasn't grown like that in more than 100-years despite having better transportation, more natural resources, far more water and strong corporate citizens.
What Nashville has that Chicago and Illinois don't is an accommodating government, low taxes and a right to work state.
It was either the Atlantic or Rolling Stone that had a related article on Sun Belt growth a decade or so ago. Three key things were air conditioning and space and cars plus inexpensive gas. The Sun Belt has space to keep expanding the suburbs which keeps prices down on the outer ring because there is competition with new housing being built growing into the open space and so on. Inexpensive gas means people will live farther away from the city center for less expensive newer housing.
The other part was it's cheaper to build infrastructure new. Roads, sidewalks, sewer, water. It doesn't need major maintenance and overhaul for 30 years+. Builders prefer to build new because it's less expensive for them to put in as part of a development rather than refurbishing to construct.
The Northeast, for example, has no space left for large developments and the infrastructure is often a century plus old so more expensive to repair and replace. Less competition with new housing so prices go up.
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Marquette has already been planning for the demographic decreases. It is smaller, and more focused on high net tuition programs like engineering, nursing and business. The size of your enrollment class isn't the only thing that matters. Any college or university can be smaller, but if those who are enrolled pay pretty well and/or you have the endowment to fund financial aid considerably, they can actually be in better fiscal shape then when they were larger.
Smaller enrollment means less pressure on your infrastructure, your academic and student services, instruction, etc. A lot of schools are resetting their fiscal expectations at a smaller enrollment figure and getting their costs in line to match it.
That's probably a way better route for Marquette to follow than trying to become more of a national university to retain enrollment size. That's an expensive proposition. Not only do you have to recruit more nationally, but you are going to have to get way more competitive on the financial aid side. I'm not sure that's a sustainable model - and I think Marquette agrees.
Marquette, as well as any college or university with any sort of long-range plan, has been preparing for this for years now. Certainly long before Heisey started posting on the topic here.
-
Marquette has already been planning for the demographic decreases. It is smaller, and more focused on high net tuition programs like engineering, nursing and business. The size of your enrollment class isn't the only thing that matters. Any college or university can be smaller, but if those who are enrolled pay pretty well and/or you have the endowment to fund financial aid considerably, they can actually be in better fiscal shape then when they were larger.
Smaller enrollment means less pressure on your infrastructure, your academic and student services, instruction, etc. A lot of schools are resetting their fiscal expectations at a smaller enrollment figure and getting their costs in line to match it.
That's probably a way better route for Marquette to follow than trying to become more of a national university to retain enrollment size. That's an expensive proposition. Not only do you have to recruit more nationally, but you are going to have to get way more competitive on the financial aid side. I'm not sure that's a sustainable model - and I think Marquette agrees.
Marquette, as well as any college or university with any sort of long-range plan, has been preparing for this for years now. Certainly long before Heisey started posting on the topic here.
But you spent 18 pages telling us there was no demographic decrease.
gaslighting
-
But you spent 18 pages telling us there was no demographic decrease.
gaslighting
I absolutely did NOT do that. I stated the fact that there was no decrease in the Chicago metropolitan area between 2010-20.
Illiterate.
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But you spent 18 pages telling us there was no demographic decrease.
gaslighting
Heisey, you are trying to conflate two separate issues. One is the future of cities which you seem to believe is bleak. The other is a demographic shift specifically in high school graduates likely to go to college in the midwest and northeast.
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I absolutely did NOT do that. I stated the fact that there was no decrease in the Chicago metropolitan area between 2010-20.
Illiterate.
You did. And when you get caught you get mad and insult.
More gaslighting
It actually is the right metric and completely relevant. But you don't want to use it because it doesn't support your point. People are acting like the entire area is in some sort of decay. It isn't. It will likely continue to grow because it is a vibrant area with a diverse economy. (Unlike Rockford, Flint and Youngstown.)
Is it growing as fast as others? No. Will it fall behind places like DFW in the next couple of decades? Perhaps.
But these are the same dire predictions people made when LA passed up Chicago a few decades ago - and yet here Chicago remains with nearly 10 million people in the metro.
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Lol. Now you are mixing up college aged students with total population. You can’t even keep your points straight.
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June 20, 2023
Wall Street Sours on America’s Downtowns
The pessimism from investors who bet on office buildings and mass transit can be seen in market signals that are flashing red
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cities-real-estate-bonds-taxes-c6736f8b
Investors are paying less for bonds linked to New York subways and buses. Downtown-focused real-estate investment trusts trade at less than half their prepandemic levels. Bondholders are demanding extra interest to hold office-building debt.
Downtowns have been a mother lode for American cities over the years, providing billions of dollars in tax revenue along with their distinctive skylines. In turn, investors who bet on downtown office towers, or on the trains and buses delivering workers to them, could generally trust they held a winning hand.
Now, with white-collar workers spending more time in their home offices, a phenomenon that shows few signs of ending, investments linked to downtowns are trading at falling prices in volatile markets.
“You could see this as a slow-motion change or as the beginning of a slow-moving train wreck,” said Richard Ciccarone, president emeritus of Merritt Research Services, a municipal credit-analysis firm. “I hope it’s not a train wreck, but it could be.”
Investors’ dimming view of downtowns isn’t good news for cities’ finances, nor for their residents. It puts under strain some of city governments’ traditional ways of extracting wealth: collecting property taxes on office buildings, taxes on wages earned within city limits, and fares from office workers’ commutes.
-
June 20, 2023
Return to Office Enters the Desperation Phase
The next stage of getting workers back at their desks includes incentives like $10 to the charity of their choice — and consequences like poor performance evaluations if they don’t make the trek in.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/business/return-to-office-remote-work.html
For tens of millions of office workers, it’s been three years of scattershot plans for returning to in-person work — summoning people in, not really meaning it, everybody pretty much working wherever they pleased. Now, for the umpteenth time, businesses are ready to get serious.
----
These new policies come as business leaders accept that hybrid work is a permanent reality, with just over a quarter of full workdays in the country now done at home, and offices still at half their prepandemic occupancy. (Though that 50 percent occupancy metric combines Tuesdays and Wednesdays, when offices are bustling, with Fridays, when they tend to be ghost towns.)
-
Migration is the most telling statistic about the desirability and health of an area.
People are moving in = good area.
People are moving out = bad area.
---------------------
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-census-2022-update-chicago-area-population-change-by-place-20230518-b3jwit6wvrfyhbzwlxl4ojcf74-story.html
New estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Chicago lost about 81,000 people, or just under 3% of its population, from 2020 to 2022.
Chicago’s population as of July 1, 2022, was estimated at 2,665,039, with changes calculated from the estimated base of April 1, 2020.
The census also estimates that Illinois lost more than 230,000 people, or about 1.8%, in that time. Much of the reported decline — about 176,000 — came in the Chicago metropolitan area, which covers 14 counties including Cook and the collar counties, and extends into Indiana and Wisconsin.
The population of Cook County on July 1, 2022 was 5.1 million, a decrease of 3.2% since 2020.
The population of DuPage County on July 1, 2022 was 920,901, a decrease of 1.3% since 2020.
The population of Kane County on July 1, 2022 was 514,182, a decrease of 0.5% since 2020.
The population of Lake County on July 1, 2022 was 709,150, a decrease of 0.7% since 2020.
The population of Will County on July 1, 2022 was 696,757, an increase of 0.1% since 2020.
The population of McHenry County on July 1, 2022 was 311,747, an increase of 0.5% since 2020.
The population of Kendall County on July 1, 2022 was 137,254, an increase of 4.1% since 2020.
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June 20, 2023
Return to Office Enters the Desperation Phase
The next stage of getting workers back at their desks includes incentives like $10 to the charity of their choice — and consequences like poor performance evaluations if they don’t make the trek in.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/business/return-to-office-remote-work.html
For tens of millions of office workers, it’s been three years of scattershot plans for returning to in-person work — summoning people in, not really meaning it, everybody pretty much working wherever they pleased. Now, for the umpteenth time, businesses are ready to get serious.
----
These new policies come as business leaders accept that hybrid work is a permanent reality, with just over a quarter of full workdays in the country now done at home, and offices still at half their prepandemic occupancy. (Though that 50 percent occupancy metric combines Tuesdays and Wednesdays, when offices are bustling, with Fridays, when they tend to be ghost towns.)
People have been rushing to deem "the new normal" of office and/or hybrid work since 2021. And they keep constantly shifting. There is plenty still to be determined and worked out. One solution won't work for all job functions and industries.
I was just at a major trade show and talked to colleauges of mine. Two companies in very similar functions and spaces in the industry, both implementing expanded WFH programs. One was raving about how well it was working. The other talked about the struggles and challenges and how it would simply not work without more concessions back to the "old" way of working. And neither were wrong or unreasonable and both have good culture/employee retention.
Where did all the thinkpieces go about "the end of business travel"? Probably the same place as the large contract of a supplier to one of my oldest customers in HK. Traditionally, they had trimester meetings and sales teams were in HK 5-6 times a year. The supplier said post-COVID they had de-emphasized business travel and wanted to do more teleconferencing, even as HK was now open. Proposed annual meetings and bi-annual sales trips with more frequent video calls. My customer expressed their disinterest in it. Supplier stood firm, contract was not renewed. Now suddenly the supplier is saying they will travel more ::)
Bit of a tangent, but felt applicable.
-
People have been rushing to deem "the new normal" of office and/or hybrid work since 2021. And they keep constantly shifting. There is plenty still to be determined and worked out. One solution won't work for all job functions and industries.
I was just at a major trade show and talked to colleauges of mine. Two companies in very similar functions and spaces in the industry, both implementing expanded WFH programs. One was raving about how well it was working. The other talked about the struggles and challenges and how it would simply not work without more concessions back to the "old" way of working. And neither were wrong or unreasonable and both have good culture/employee retention.
Where did all the thinkpieces go about "the end of business travel"? Probably the same place as the large contract of a supplier to one of my oldest customers in HK. Traditionally, they had trimester meetings and sales teams were in HK 5-6 times a year. The supplier said post-COVID they had de-emphasized business travel and wanted to do more teleconferencing, even as HK was now open. Proposed annual meetings and bi-annual sales trips with more frequent video calls. My customer expressed their disinterest in it. Supplier stood firm, contract was not renewed. Now suddenly the supplier is saying they will travel more ::)
Bit of a tangent, but felt applicable.
The thing I read about WFH is the significant different influences, outside of the businesses themselves. Commerical real estate developers/investors want return. City leaders are also desperate for return.
So many different factors at play
-
The WSJ had an interesting piece on downtowns in major cities and it sure seems that the smart money guys are not betting on a resurgence of downtowns anytime soon. The article had a graph on cell phone activity in downtowns and several were under 35% of pre pandemic activity. The scary part of the story was the lost money in commercial real estate.
I also try and follow the smartest people, and most are running from major cities. I have no idea what will happen long term but I do not see any reason why anyone would be bullish on any big downtown.
I will say it makes me sad because I have always loved the action of being in the heart of a big city. While MKE is far from a big time city, I love having my office in a great location in the heart of the city and now am debating renewing my lease.
-
San Fran now ... every other city next
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June 19, 2023
With Commuters Staying Home, Transit Agencies Try to Reinvent Themselves
In California, Bay Area Rapid Transit has suffered so much that it needs a state bailout — and possibly a new business model.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/us/bart-san-francisco-california.html
Three years after the pandemic began, remote work endures as a way of life for many office workers, and few major transit systems in the United States have suffered worse than Bay Area Rapid Transit. The 131-mile network depends heavily on suburban residents who commute daily into San Francisco and less than other transit systems on local passengers trying to get across town.
Weekday ridership on BART is down to 32 percent of what it was before the pandemic began, punctuating a desperate moment for San Francisco. Without daily foot traffic, major retailers are abandoning downtown, and analysts believe the city core has yet to bottom out. Homeless encampments and open drug use have further discouraged visitors, while passengers have complained about safety and a lack of cleanliness.
BART officials are starting to come to terms with a future that no longer revolves around a downtown work culture. They are considering whether to pivot toward serving more concertgoers and sports fans on nights and weekends.
Across the United States, transit systems that have relied for decades on office workers are scrambling to avoid financial collapse as commuters stay home. Many systems are asking their local governments for bailouts as federal pandemic relief runs dry, but they are also racing to reinvent themselves.
Kansas City, Albuquerque and Boston have experimented with eliminating fares. Dallas is offering subsidized Uber rides to transit users. The Washington Metro is investing in housing and retail shops at dozens of its stations.
“If anyone says that they know the way out of this difficult situation, they’re fooling themselves,” said Brian D. Taylor, the director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Los Angeles. “This is a really challenging time.”
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People have been rushing to deem "the new normal" of office and/or hybrid work since 2021. And they keep constantly shifting. There is plenty still to be determined and worked out. One solution won't work for all job functions and industries.
I was just at a major trade show and talked to colleauges of mine. Two companies in very similar functions and spaces in the industry, both implementing expanded WFH programs. One was raving about how well it was working. The other talked about the struggles and challenges and how it would simply not work without more concessions back to the "old" way of working. And neither were wrong or unreasonable and both have good culture/employee retention.
Where did all the thinkpieces go about "the end of business travel"? Probably the same place as the large contract of a supplier to one of my oldest customers in HK. Traditionally, they had trimester meetings and sales teams were in HK 5-6 times a year. The supplier said post-COVID they had de-emphasized business travel and wanted to do more teleconferencing, even as HK was now open. Proposed annual meetings and bi-annual sales trips with more frequent video calls. My customer expressed their disinterest in it. Supplier stood firm, contract was not renewed. Now suddenly the supplier is saying they will travel more ::)
Bit of a tangent, but felt applicable.
I'm on a short business trip the next two days. The market intelligence I just learned from the customers today was irreplaceable. If I didn't meet them in person I certainly would not have learned via videoconference.
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The WSJ had an interesting piece on downtowns in major cities and it sure seems that the smart money guys are not betting on a resurgence of downtowns anytime soon. The article had a graph on cell phone activity in downtowns and several were under 35% of pre pandemic activity. The scary part of the story was the lost money in commercial real estate.
I also try and follow the smartest people, and most are running from major cities. I have no idea what will happen long term but I do not see any reason why anyone would be bullish on any big downtown.
I will say it makes me sad because I have always loved the action of being in the heart of a big city. While MKE is far from a big time city, I love having my office in a great location in the heart of the city and now am debating renewing my lease.
Simple. People want to LIVE downtown. Convert the commercial high rises into livable spaces until there is a balance.
The cost of living in an urban center is extremely high, and a wise investor should consider converting while prices are high to maximize ROI.
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Simple. People want to LIVE downtown. Convert the commercial high rises into livable spaces until there is a balance.
The cost of living in an urban center is extremely high, and a wise investor should consider converting while prices are high to maximize ROI.
Not simple ... it is incredibly difficult and expensive to convert commercial/office to residential, and only a small percentage of current buildings in most city centers are viable for such conversion.
One big problem ... modern office buildings have huge footprints. No one wants an apartment/condo without a window. What do you do with the vast interior space? Also, ask Tower; converting these big buildings to residential is against most existing building and fire codes. All that means is another dump truck of money to bring them into compliance, meaning these are not affordable housing units but more units for the wealthy.
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/11/upshot/office-conversions.html
The idea, however, is less like a sweeping fix and more like a set of intricate puzzles — a different one for each building. Each one must solve for local rules that say what counts as a bedroom, for structural columns and elevator shafts that shape where walls go, for construction costs and land prices that affect rent rolls. And they must solve, above all, for access in every unit to fresh air and sunlight.
For many offices, this puzzle may be unsolvable, at least for now.
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June 21, 2023
Untangling the Urban Doom Loop
As superstar cities struggle to fill vacant offices and pandemic boomtowns try to contain rising costs, both must double down on density, argues Bruce Schaller.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-21/to-break-the-urban-doom-loop-build-housing-and-transit
As pandemic-era migrations and behavioral shifts continue to play out, the precarious condition of America’s downtowns has emerged as an increasingly urgent refrain. Office attendance and transit ridership in many cities remain stalled at severely diminished levels, fueling much talk among urban scholars and pundits of an “urban doom loop” — a cycle of unstoppable collapse whereby tumbling property tax revenue forces cities to slash spending, speeding the flight of residents and businesses and triggering a rise in crime and disorder. As dynamism has shifted from unaffordable coastal “superstar cities” to inland insurgents in the Sun Belt, many have speculated that an entirely new geography of the American economy is taking shape.
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Not simple ... it is incredibly difficult and expensive to convert commercial/office to residential, and only a small percentage of current buildings in most city centers are viable for such conversion.
One big problem ... modern office buildings have huge footprints. No one wants an apartment/condo without a window. What do you do with the vast interior space? Also, ask Tower; converting these big buildings to residential is against most existing building and fire codes. All that means is another dump truck of money to bring them into compliance, meaning these are not affordable housing units but more units for the wealthy.
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/11/upshot/office-conversions.html
The idea, however, is less like a sweeping fix and more like a set of intricate puzzles — a different one for each building. Each one must solve for local rules that say what counts as a bedroom, for structural columns and elevator shafts that shape where walls go, for construction costs and land prices that affect rent rolls. And they must solve, above all, for access in every unit to fresh air and sunlight.
For many offices, this puzzle may be unsolvable, at least for now.
It's only as difficult as you choose to make it. Sure, it would cost a lot to retrofit, but it also costs a ton to tear down and rebuild. Tax incentives, long term empty commercial taxes, Public housing, etc. This isn't an unsolvable problem, it is an opportunity to change urban living.
Also, if you're saying that a lot of these buildings would only be affordable for the wealthy, there are obvious problems with that argument. Require that a certain number of units are required for different income levels. Not to mention the downward pressure that more housing overall puts on housing prices.
Your solution is what, exactly?
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It's only as difficult as you choose to make it. Sure, it would cost a lot to retrofit, but it also costs a ton to tear down and rebuild. Tax incentives, long term empty commercial taxes, Public housing, etc. This isn't an unsolvable problem, it is an opportunity to change urban living.
Also, if you're saying that a lot of these buildings would only be affordable for the wealthy, there are obvious problems with that argument. Require that a certain number of units are required for different income levels not to mention the downward pressure that more housing overall puts on housing prices.
Your solution is what, exactly?
New buildings with large footprints were never designed to be converted into residential units. Estimates are it would cost about $200/foot to cover in most urban cities. (the plumbing alone for kitchens and bathrooms would be a massive undertaking) And that is on top of $100/$300 foot to acquire the building.
So a typical 1200 square foot 2 bedroom would have $240,000 in conversion costs. Add in the building costs; that condo would need to go for at least $500k to break even.
What is the market for $500+k two-bedroom condos in a place like Milwaukee?
What is my solution? Not pretending the unworkable is workable.
Again, conversion works for many older low-rise buildings with small footprints. It does not work for large modern office buildings with big footprints, which is the majority of office space in most city centers.
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It's only as difficult as you choose to make it. Sure, it would cost a lot to retrofit, but it also costs a ton to tear down and rebuild. Tax incentives, long term empty commercial taxes, Public housing, etc. This isn't an unsolvable problem, it is an opportunity to change urban living.
Also, if you're saying that a lot of these buildings would only be affordable for the wealthy, there are obvious problems with that argument. Require that a certain number of units are required for different income levels. Not to mention the downward pressure that more housing overall puts on housing prices.
Your solution is what, exactly?
He doesn’t have one. Just move to Fredonia
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I'm on a short business trip the next two days. The market intelligence I just learned from the customers today was irreplaceable. If I didn't meet them in person I certainly would not have learned via videoconference.
Did you meet in your customer's office in a conference room? Or did you take them out to lunch/dinner or another event to get one-on-one time (golf or a baseball game)?
Do you need an office with a conference room to accomplish this?
It sounds like you can get this without ever visiting another office again.
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He doesn’t have one. Just move to Fredonia
Try reading about six or seven posts above ....
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“If anyone says that they know the way out of this difficult situation, they’re fooling themselves,” said Brian D. Taylor, the director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Los Angeles. “This is a really challenging time.”
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Try reading about six or seven posts above ....
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“If anyone says that they know the way out of this difficult situation, they’re fooling themselves,” said Brian D. Taylor, the director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Los Angeles. “This is a really challenging time.”
Oh, well then nothing, I guess. This one guy says so. So it must be!
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New buildings with large footprints were never designed to be converted into residential units. Estimates are it would cost about $200/foot to cover in most urban cities. (the plumbing alone for kitchens and bathrooms would be a massive undertaking) And that is on top of $100/$300 foot to acquire the building.
So a typical 1200 square foot 2 bedroom would have $240,000 in conversion costs. Add in the building costs; that condo would need to go for at least $500k to break even.
What is the market for $500+k two-bedroom condos in a place like Milwaukee?
What is my solution? Not pretending the unworkable is workable.
Again, conversion works for many older low-rise buildings with small footprints. It does not work for large modern office buildings with big footprints, which is the majority of office space in most city centers.
You're doing back of the napkin math and making a ton of assumptions regarding a complex issue. Good job, good effort.
There are a lot more small/medium size commercial buildings in downtown Milwaukee that can be repurposed. I never suggested taking the US Bank building and loading it with condos. Curious that you chose Milwaukee instead of SF. But you probably did that because you checked zillow and noted that there were over 400 results for condos over $500k with 2+ bedrooms. But I understand why you'd choose Milwaukee. It better fit your claims.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_Milwaukee
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_East_Wisconsin
Between 2016 and 2023, several of the building's major tenants announced that they would be vacating their spaces. A number of these businesses moved up Water Street to the newly opened BMO Tower (Milwaukee). In 2023, Klein Development and developer and investor John Vassalllo purchased the building and announced plans to convert the building into 350 luxury apartments by 2026. The buildings small floorplates make it unattractive to modern office use, but the high quality of construction, views and location make it appealing to residential conversion.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/real-estate/commercial/2023/03/10/100-east-office-tower-conversion-to-350-apartments-to-happen-by-2026/69994734007/
I guess someone already had the idea to swap to luxury apartments in Milwaukee. Oh shoot, I thought that idea was all mine!
Perhaps instead of listening to what one doomer says, perhaps look to what the investors and banks have actually decided was a good idea. Might there be problems or financial woes? Yes, of course, but that is investing. Your solutions seems to be to throw your hands up in the air and say, "Nothing to be done! Sky is falling folks!"
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His business model is boosted by uncertainty.
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You're doing back of the napkin math and making a ton of assumptions regarding a complex issue. Good job, good effort.
It's a Heisey specialty.
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Since this thread has veered significantly since Page 1, here's something related -- a NYT piece on many major tech companies trying everything they can to lure workers back to the office because they think it fosters creativity and accountability:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/business/return-to-office-remote-work.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20230622&instance_id=95727&nl=the-morning®i_id=108420427&segment_id=136436&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
Now that tech hiring has stagnated -- with the likes of Microsoft, Apple, Google, Salesforce, Meta, etc, actually freezing or even reducing their workforces -- maybe the companies finally have leverage to bring people back in, at least on a hybrid basis? I guess we'll see.
+++
Manny Medina, the chief executive of a Seattle-based artificial intelligence sales company, doesn’t mind repeating himself. It comes with the territory, after all. That tolerance proved convenient this year as he faced the same question innumerable times.
Wait, so why was it you wanted us back in the office?
The engineers reminded him of their commutes. The working parents reminded him of school pickup times. Mr. Medina replied with arguments he has delineated so often that they have come to feel like personal mantras: Being near each other makes the work better. Mr. Medina approached three years of mushy remote-plus-office work as an experiment. His takeaway was that ideas bubble up more organically in the clamor of the office.
“You can interrupt each other without being rude when you’re in person,” said Mr. Medina, whose company, Outreach, is now in the office on a hybrid basis. “In a Zoom conversation, you have to let somebody finish their thought.”
For tens of millions of office workers, it’s been three years of scattershot plans for returning to in-person work — summoning people in, not really meaning it, everybody pretty much working wherever they pleased. Now, for the umpteenth time, businesses are ready to get serious.
A wave of companies called workers back to the office this spring and summer: Disney said four days a week, Amazon swung with three (prompting a walkout from corporate workers), Meta and Lyft are aiming for September deadlines for many of their employees. Others devised new tactics to ensure their return-to-office policies stuck. Google, which has asked most workers to be in the office three days a week, announced that performance reviews could take into account lengthy unexplained absences from the office, and badge records could be reviewed to identify those consistent absences, said Ryan Lamont, a company spokesman.
Google employees will be granted the ability to work remotely only on an extremely rare basis. “We want to see Googlers connecting and collaborating in person, so we’re limiting remote work to exception only,” Mr. Lamont said.
These new policies come as business leaders accept that hybrid work is a permanent reality, with just over a quarter of full workdays in the country now done at home, and offices still at half their prepandemic occupancy. (Though that 50 percent occupancy metric combines Tuesdays and Wednesdays, when offices are bustling, with Fridays, when they tend to be ghost towns.)
Salesforce, the business software behemoth, announced that for a 10-day period, it will give a $10 charitable donation per day on behalf of any employee who comes into the office (or for remote employees who attend company events). A spokeswoman said it was only natural the company would want to find moments for “doing well and doing good.” But to some employees, it might feel like a tonal shift, given that the company’s previous workplace plans were announced with fanfare for a future in which much of its staff could be fully or partially remote forever. (The company emphasized that this remains the case.)
“An immersive workspace is no longer limited to a desk in our Towers,” the company wrote in a February 2021 memo. “The 9-to-5 workday is dead.”
It was very much alive on a recent Monday at Salesforce Tower in New York, as a hum of activity filled the 41-story building looming over Bryant Park. Desks and conference rooms were filled with employees, some of them visiting from San Francisco for the company’s A.I.-focused day. In the top-floor lounge, workers stood in line waiting for coffee, as Salesforce’s catering team prepared shrimp tacos for an office event that week.
Scattered throughout the office were the company’s animal mascots. Brandy the fox represents marketing. Astro the astronaut sat behind a piano in the 41st floor lounge. Codey the bear stood guard near the developers.
“It’s the impromptu-ness of in-person — so for example, I was at the office and there was somebody from Chicago, she was in the San Francisco office — ‘Oh do you have time to go and chat and have a meeting about a strategy that we’re rolling out?’” said Nathalie Scardino, Salesforce’s global head of talent strategy. “Inevitably, as a high-tech company, you have to keep changing to meet the needs of the business, of the customer.”
It’s not often that the entire white-collar business world gets thrown into an impromptu experiment — executives left to discern how to make multimillion-dollar decisions in between bursts of “you’re on mute,” employees figuring out how to forge friendships and nudge mentors for advice while sitting next to piles of their laundry.
And for the last three years, some office decision-making has come to feel like parents scrambling to impose rules on an unruly home: “Do this.” “Why?” “Because I said so.” But now some business leaders say that the results of their remote work experiment are in. They feel emphatically that they need some in-person time. After months of layoffs, especially in tech, their next business moves feel particularly consequential.
“When the economy was warm, executives thought, ‘I’d really like to have people back but it’s OK because I have this margin of error,’” said Mark Ein, chairman of Kastle, the security firm whose “back to work barometer” made it a pandemic celebrity. “Now that things are tougher, they want to hunker down and have their people in the office.”
DocuSign, which has more than 6,500 employees spread across the globe, became a poster child for the lurching back-and-forth over return-to-office planning. The company had hoped to call employees back in May 2020, then August 2020, then October 2021, then January 2022. Then the plans disintegrated altogether.
But this month, much of the company finally came back to the office. Since February, executives have evaluated every role at the company and decided roughly 70 percent were hybrid, meaning people would be partly in the office and partly remote, 30 percent were fully remote and under 1 percent were fully in the office. Jennifer Christie, the company’s new chief people officer, absorbed dozens of questions from concerned employees.
“This can be a very polarizing subject,” she said, adding that she views this summer as a period of experimentation in which she and other company leaders will evaluate what parts of their hybrid plan need changing. “We’re running water through pipes that haven’t had water run through them in a long time. So where are there going to be leaks?”
But Docusign’s leaders were ready, she added, to stop talking about how to get people back in the office and start making their plans real. “We could debate it forever, we could speculate about what’s going to happen forever, but the best way for us to understand how this will impact our culture and productivity and collaboration is to just start doing it.”
It’s been a long period of choose-your-own-adventure style workplace planning, and the shift companies have made toward firmer deadlines has taken some recruiters by surprise. Jasmine Silver, who runs a recruitment firm specializing in mothers hoping to re-enter the work force, found that in the last few months, many of her clients transitioned abruptly from fully remote to either hybrid or entirely in-office work. The transition was jarring for some workers, especially those who had moved far from their offices, or had become attached to new work-from-home habits.
And it’s healthy for people to be able to express those frustrations, psychologists said.
“What appears to be a grumbling or complaint is in many cases a request for understanding,” said Tracy Maylett, an organizational psychologist. “When you look at change, the most dangerous people are people who are quiet, because you don’t know what they’re thinking. You can’t address their concerns.”
The period of hand-wringing also tends to be temporary, judging by those companies now settled in their hybrid routines. Asana, for example, the productivity software firm, asked employees to come in at least on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays starting in 2022.
For months, return to office, or R.T.O., was a big topic of office conversation. Everybody had questions, and they were all directed toward Anna Binder, the head of human resources.
“Before we R.T.O.’d — I love that that’s now in the Webster Dictionary — it was a topic of conversation because R.T.O. was theoretical, and being on the other side of the pandemic was theoretical,” Ms. Binder said. “Most people came, returned and are here. Some people tried it, decided, ‘It’s not for me,’ and they left.”
Now, Ms. Binder continued, the issue doesn’t really come up. Return to office isn’t a hypothetical scenario. It’s their reality. And they have so much else to talk about.
“Somebody on my team just recently fell in love with somebody, and she came in one day and it was like, ‘What is going on with you?’” Ms. Binder said. “She got so red and she was like, ‘My whole life has changed.’ To share that moment with another human being — it was really emotional.”
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You're doing back of the napkin math and making a ton of assumptions regarding a complex issue. Good job, good effort.
There are a lot more small/medium size commercial buildings in downtown Milwaukee that can be repurposed. I never suggested taking the US Bank building and loading it with condos. Curious that you chose Milwaukee instead of SF. But you probably did that because you checked zillow and noted that there were over 400 results for condos over $500k with 2+ bedrooms. But I understand why you'd choose Milwaukee. It better fit your claims.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_Milwaukee
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_East_Wisconsin
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/real-estate/commercial/2023/03/10/100-east-office-tower-conversion-to-350-apartments-to-happen-by-2026/69994734007/
I guess someone already had the idea to swap to luxury apartments in Milwaukee. Oh shoot, I thought that idea was all mine!
Perhaps instead of listening to what one doomer says, perhaps look to what the investors and banks have actually decided was a good idea. Might there be problems or financial woes? Yes, of course, but that is investing. Your solutions seems to be to throw your hands up in the air and say, "Nothing to be done! Sky is falling folks!"
I spent time trying to invest in conversion and gave up when I realized it was not that lucrative.
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Oh, well then nothing, I guess. This one guy says so. So it must be!
And that one guy is more credible than you.
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Since this thread has veered significantly since Page 1, here's something related -- a NYT piece on many major tech companies trying everything they can to lure workers back to the office because they think it fosters creativity and accountability:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/20/business/return-to-office-remote-work.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20230622&instance_id=95727&nl=the-morning®i_id=108420427&segment_id=136436&te=1&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
Now that tech hiring has stagnated -- with the likes of Microsoft, Apple, Google, Salesforce, Meta, etc, actually freezing or even reducing their workforces -- maybe the companies finally have leverage to bring people back in, at least on a hybrid basis? I guess we'll see.
See the story above, they have been trying to get everyone back for three years, this is the umpteenth time that companies have tried this. Why will it work now?
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Perhaps instead of listening to what one doomer says, perhaps look to what the investors and banks have actually decided was a good idea. Might there be problems or financial woes? Yes, of course, but that is investing. Your solutions seems to be to throw your hands up in the air and say, "Nothing to be done! Sky is falling folks!"
This is about investing in office conversion. The math does not work (except in specific buildings which are a small minority of the buildings in a city center).
Other things can be done besides money-losing uneconomic conversions.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_East_Wisconsin
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/real-estate/commercial/2023/03/10/100-east-office-tower-conversion-to-350-apartments-to-happen-by-2026/69994734007/
I guess someone already had the idea to swap to luxury apartments in Milwaukee. Oh shoot, I thought that idea was all mine!
Perhaps instead of listening to what one doomer says, perhaps look to what the investors and banks have actually decided was a good idea. Might there be problems or financial woes? Yes, of course, but that is investing. Your solutions seems to be to throw your hands up in the air and say, "Nothing to be done! Sky is falling folks!"
This article makes my point, conversions are incredibly expensive and result in high-end apartments/condos. They are not the way to solve the affordable housing problem.
And note that will take 3+ years ... it would take less time to build a similar building from an empty lot ... because conversions are that complicated.
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See the story above, they have been trying to get everyone back for three years, this is the umpteenth time that companies have tried this. Why will it work now?
It's already working now for some companies, including Google and Microsoft, which have massive workforces in expensive cities. It's not working as well for some others. It's too early to make a declaration - for me, anyway. If you want to take the extreme view and call it a done deal, that's your prerogative.
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And that one guy is more credible than you.
I should hope so, but despite what he says the reality is that he's wrong. There are developers renovating buildings.
That's the reality. I'm sorry it hurt your feelings to be proven wrong so easily.
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This article makes my point, conversions are incredibly expensive and result in high-end apartments/condos. They are not the way to solve the affordable housing problem.
This may be your belief but it is incorrect. Building high end RE solves the affordable housing problem.
Private developers/capital are inherently risk averse. They build high end RE/condos or convert buildings in dense desirable neighborhoods because there is already demand.
Now, if that demand isn't met by new high-end development you know what people like me do? Snap up affordable housing and gut-reno it to make it high end housing, problem solved for me and problem created for others.
More supply is always the answer. Expanding a city’s housing supply exerts downward pressure on market rents. It's obvious, and here's a study - https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1334&context=up_workingpapers
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This article makes my point, conversions are incredibly expensive and result in high-end apartments/condos. They are not the way to solve the affordable housing problem.
And note that will take 3+ years ... it would take less time to build a similar building from an empty lot ... because conversions are that complicated.
Any housing additions puts upward pressure on supply, and therefore downward pressure on demand, thereby decreasing prices.
Unless you're trying to refute basic economic theory.
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It's already working now for some companies, including Google and Microsoft, which have massive workforces in expensive cities. It's not working as well for some others. It's too early to make a declaration - for me, anyway. If you want to take the extreme view and call it a done deal, that's your prerogative.
Kasltle is the largest key card security system in the country. They have been offering a metric on office usage since 2020. It is the generally accepted measure on returning to the office.
It has stalled at 50% for about 18 months. In other words, about 2.5 days a week in the office and 2.5 days at home.
It suggests that we are not returning to the office, no matter how many times their is a demand to return.
And the reason is simple ... pay more to come to the office and less to stay at home. Very few companies are doing this.
Until they start paying premiums to return every day, it is not happening.
(https://www.kastle.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Kastle_dashboard_separate-2_6.20.23_v2.jpg)
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Any housing additions puts upward pressure on supply, and therefore downward pressure on demand, thereby decreasing prices.
Unless you're trying to refute basic economic theory.
Before you make up more stuff ... read this.
(again, conversions will happen. But it is not the big solution you keep insisting it is. It only works for selected niche buildings.)
April 27, 2023
https://www.brookings.edu/research/myths-about-converting-offices-into-housing-and-what-can-really-revitalize-downtowns/
Myths about converting offices into housing—and what can really revitalize downtowns
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I should hope so, but despite what he says the reality is that he's wrong. There are developers renovating buildings.
That's the reality. I'm sorry it hurt your feelings to be proven wrong so easily.
You should just take the L and stop.
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Before you make up more stuff ... read this.
(again, conversions will happen. But it is not the big solution you keep insisting it is. It only works for selected niche buildings.)
April 27, 2023
https://www.brookings.edu/research/myths-about-converting-offices-into-housing-and-what-can-really-revitalize-downtowns/
Myths about converting offices into housing—and what can really revitalize downtowns
Over recent decades, numerous cities have provided public support and subsidies for office-to-residential conversion, and evidence suggests that these interventions produced a public benefit. In
post-9/11 New York, the conversion of 20 million square feet of office space into housing was part of doubling the residential population of Lower Manhattan. Downtown Los Angeles experienced a renaissance after the passage of an
“Adaptive Reuse Ordinance” in 1999 that allowed conversions of older commercial buildings without adding parking, resulting in the direct creation of over
12,000 units of housing over 20 years. More direct financial subsidy includes the recent
Calgary incentive program that provides $75 per square foot to convert offices into housing, or Philadelphia’s prior
10-year tax abatement that converted 8.2 million square feet from over 40 office buildings, increasing the Center City neighborhood’s population by 54% between 2000 and 2020. These experiences demonstrate the potential of adaptive reuse. But they vary considerably in their exact details, which merits careful consideration.
So what I'm saying, works. Thanks.
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You should just take the L and stop.
Probably some self-reflection on your part would mitigate the continued embarrassment.
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This may be your belief but it is incorrect. Building high end RE solves the affordable housing problem.
Private developers/capital are inherently risk averse. They build high end RE/condos or convert buildings in dense desirable neighborhoods because there is already demand.
Now, if that demand isn't met by new high-end development you know what people like me do? Snap up affordable housing and gut-reno it to make it high end housing, problem solved for me and problem created for others.
More supply is always the answer. Expanding a city’s housing supply exerts downward pressure on market rents. It's obvious, and here's a study - https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1334&context=up_workingpapers
You forgot that rich white people that now live in expensive properties in the city will not sit by and allow their market to get swamped with supply leading to their home values going down.
That will place restrictions on it via building codes and limiting tax abatements.
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You forgot that rich white people that now live in expensive properties in the city will not sit by and allow their market to get swamped with supply leading to their home values going down.
That will place restrictions on it via building codes and limiting tax abatements.
Aren’t rich people leaving cities? Now they’re staying?
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Aren’t rich people leaving cities? Now they’re staying?
I said the exact opposite ... it is the poor and middle class that are leaving.
It is privileged white people like you defending them (while you live far far away).
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I said the exact opposite ... it is the poor and middle class that are leaving.
It is privileged white people like you defending them (while you live far far away).
That’s true. I live in a gated community to stay away from people like you
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That’s true. I live in a gated community to stay away from people like you
Minimum security prison does not equal gated community.
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Minimum security prison does not equal gated community.
Listen here pal, as a member of the law and order party, we make sure there ain’t no prisons near us
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Charlotte isn't in the Rust Belt or Midwest, but we also have a situation where everyone was working remotely for a couple years. Now, many of our largest corporations are demanding employees come back uptown (which is what the folks here call downtown; ain't that homey?). Talking about Bank of America, Duke Energy, Honeywell, Wells Fargo, Truist, Atrium Health, etc.
Still, there is a lot of vacant office space -- nowhere near pre-pandemic occupancy.
Despite this, Charlotte continues to grow, and people are falling all over each other competing to live uptown or in neighborhoods within a mile or two of uptown. Houses, condos and apartments in the area are fetching serious bucks and many small businesses are being cannibalized by larger ones that can afford the rent.
Some office space already has been converted to multi-use -- housing, entertainment, restaurants, smaller offices. Many companies are keeping their space as they wait to see what the landscape will be in the next few years. It will be interesting to watch.
Like any major city, Charlotte has less-safe areas, ones we avoid. Like any major city, some of our safest, priciest areas have crimes committed there. That's life.
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What should be done? The Mayor of SF has an idea ...
June 22, 2023
San Francisco Mayor Floats Razing Mall in Crisis-Ridden Downtown
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/san-francisco-mayor-sees-downtown-where-stadium-replaces-mall
San Francisco Mayor London Breed called on investors to redevelop the city’s struggling downtown core by converting or even demolishing empty buildings to make way for new growth.
“I think we have to start re-imagining what the downtown can be,” Breed said at the Bloomberg Technology Summit in San Francisco on Thursday.
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This comes back to the major economic and cultural change in the wake of the pandemic that should now be viewed as permanent, remote work, and work from home. We can argue all we want, whether it is good or bad, it has already happened, and we are not going back.
Out this morning ...
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/isP2llUHfVvQ/v1/800x-1.jpg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-23/commercial-real-estate-reset-is-causing-distress-from-san-francisco-to-hong-kong
The creeping rot inside commercial real estate is like a dark seam running through the global economy. Even as stock markets rally and investors are hopeful that the fastest interest-rate increases in a generation will ebb, the trouble in property is set to play out for years.
--
What PGIM analysts have called “the great reset” of values is likely to be agonizingly slow. It took six years for US office prices to recover after the 2008 financial crisis, even though that episode was centered on residential real estate. “This time we think it’ll take 10 years,” says Richard Barkham, global chief economist for CBRE Group Inc.
Commercial real estate’s woes will add to the stress on a financial system that’s already reeling from this year’s crisis in regional banks. And as the downturn deepens, it stands to have a transformational impact on some cities as they contend with empty buildings and lower property tax revenue.
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Conclusion:
Shaka won't be able to field a team before his new contract is up.
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Conclusion:
Shaka won't be able to field a team before his new contract is up.
c'mon, you can do better than this.
Try again
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This comes back to the major economic and cultural change in the wake of the pandemic that should now be viewed as permanent, remote work, and work from home. We can argue all we want, whether it is good or bad, it has already happened, and we are not going back.
Out this morning ...
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/isP2llUHfVvQ/v1/800x-1.jpg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-23/commercial-real-estate-reset-is-causing-distress-from-san-francisco-to-hong-kong
The creeping rot inside commercial real estate is like a dark seam running through the global economy. Even as stock markets rally and investors are hopeful that the fastest interest-rate increases in a generation will ebb, the trouble in property is set to play out for years.
--
What PGIM analysts have called “the great reset” of values is likely to be agonizingly slow. It took six years for US office prices to recover after the 2008 financial crisis, even though that episode was centered on residential real estate. “This time we think it’ll take 10 years,” says Richard Barkham, global chief economist for CBRE Group Inc.
Commercial real estate’s woes will add to the stress on a financial system that’s already reeling from this year’s crisis in regional banks. And as the downturn deepens, it stands to have a transformational impact on some cities as they contend with empty buildings and lower property tax revenue.
I don't disagree with any of this. Also, I thought I read a while back that commercial real estate was undergoing some credit default swaps... I could be misremembering though.
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I don't disagree with any of this. Also, I thought I read a while back that commercial real estate was undergoing some credit default swaps... I could be misremembering, though.
Office Real Estate is arguably the single worst stock market sector.
I cannot think of anything worse.
And if the stock market is a forward-looking indicator, and office properties have reversed a generation of gains, it speaks volumes about where the market thinks office real estate is and where it is going.
(https://www.edwardconard.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Office-REIT-Index-.jpg)
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I have been bemused by much of the discussion on downtowns and returns to work. I'm the first to admit I find the diversity of opinion interesting but I think you are all missing it.
The reality is that if work from home takes off, the dynamic of American life will change so much that my (so far unborn) grandchildren would not recognize life as it exists today. We live around cities because they were places where commerce, industry and government came together in one place. A farmer could ship his/her goods to say, Chicago, for transshipment to the west or east coast. The bankers, traders and lawyers were there to facilitate commerce. Industry came because it was along the major transportation lines and it had access to bankers and lawyers.
If we don't need interpersonal contact, we don't need cities. A place like Dubuque, Iowa, long a tribal outpost for German and Irish Catholics, becomes an attractive option for folks who like river living in a hilly, natural setting. Carbondale IL offers the same options as does everyplace from Dickson, TN to Pagosa Springs Colo.
Without a concentration of attractive cities, where does the culture come from? Can sports teams as we know them survive? Does a geographically diverse America change the complexion of our interpersonal relationships? Do we now become a nation of hermits with arranged marriages? Asking for a friend.
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People don’t just congregate to cities due to commerce. And I doubt WFH will make your grandchild “not recognize” life today. That’s hyperbolic nonsense.
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I have been bemused by much of the discussion on downtowns and returns to work. I'm the first to admit I find the diversity of opinion interesting but I think you are all missing it.
The reality is that if work from home takes off, the dynamic of American life will change so much that my (so far unborn) grandchildren would not recognize life as it exists today. We live around cities because they were places where commerce, industry and government came together in one place. A farmer could ship his/her goods to say, Chicago, for transshipment to the west or east coast. The bankers, traders and lawyers were there to facilitate commerce. Industry came because it was along the major transportation lines and it had access to bankers and lawyers.
If we don't need interpersonal contact, we don't need cities. A place like Dubuque, Iowa, long a tribal outpost for German and Irish Catholics, becomes an attractive option for folks who like river living in a hilly, natural setting. Carbondale IL offers the same options as does everyplace from Dickson, TN to Pagosa Springs Colo.
Without a concentration of attractive cities, where does the culture come from? Can sports teams as we know them survive? Does a geographically diverse America change the complexion of our interpersonal relationships? Do we now become a nation of hermits with arranged marriages? Asking for a friend.
Nope. Cities will continue to grow. People move to cities for work. All kinds of work. There aren't jobs in the sticks and we are no longer an agrarian society. Something like 2% of Americans are involved in Ag. There aren't new factories popping up in rural America. Could SOME WFH people move around? Sure, but my guess is that companies will figure out a way to pay their WFH people less, or figure out a new pay scale for the WFH folks.
No doubt the world is changing, but we are certainly not going to be moving away from urban settings in the future.
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No doubt the world is changing, but we are certainly not going to be moving away from urban settings in the future.
JP Morgan Asset Management just published a 70-page report on the implications of the shutdown/restart of the economy around COVID in 2020.
In short, this event will probably be the biggest economic event the economy will have faced in our lifetime.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/siag-post-covid-world-final.pdf#page=6
Chapter 6 - The urban commuter economy
COVID reshaped the daily lives of millions of workers overnight and in the process shattered a commuter ecosystem that had served major urban cores for decades. While the pieces are being put back together, the system remains fragile. Costly, capital-intensive mass transit systems have been starved of the fare revenue needed to maintain service, potentially rolling those costs up a level to the municipal or state fiscal authorities.
State and municipal entities, although able to weather the storm of COVID fairly well, can ill afford to shoulder the burden of money-losing mass transit systems. The lagged effect of property tax declines may add
pressure to cut costs and services, raising the specter of a downward spiral in economic activity, further population loss and declining property values. We can take some hope from the fact that previous downturns
have proven the resiliency of the urban model, but caution is warranted. The need for cities to serve as a hub of large office populations is being questioned as never before.
Chapter 7 - Work and home life after the Pandemic
In the coming years, employers and employees will renegotiate how we live and work across the physical and virtual worlds. The need to commute to an office, for generations accepted as a given, is now subject to the question, How much do we really need commutes, or offices? It will be impossible to “unring the bell” and return to pre-COVID work patterns as if nothing has changed.
For the costly and capital-intensive sectors of the economy that served the pre-COVID workforce, the prospects are challenging – particularly mass transit systems and marginal urban offices. Supply exceeds demand and may for quite a while as prices slowly adjust and assets are repurposed to the extent possible.
On the flip side, there is too little logistics infrastructure to serve the evolving e-commerce marketplace and too little residential real estate to serve the population of young families. In these sectors, favorable supply and demand characteristics will deliver strong returns on capital over the long term.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
So if we refrain from the MUscoop tactic of way over ANALysing the precise wording of every post, causing everyone to get lost in the trees constantly, and instead look at what the message being conveyed is, dgies is correct.
10, 20, or 30 years from now, there will be a place with many people called "Milwaukee" or "Chicago." The real question is, why do people choose to live there? If the answer is no longer to be close to an office, this means a tectonic change for the city and the lifestyle of living in a city. And if this is the case, what becomes of the large buildings in the city center? See my post above; the stock market already wiped out the last 27 years of office real estate gains as it fears the true value of those buildings.
Restated, cities have to remake themselves. And they will. But first, we have to "blank slate" everything we know about a city and re-think its purpose and goals. In other words, this entire debate is about whether this is still true. At the very least, it can no longer just be said, as done here, as if it is stating a fact. We don't know if it is a fact anymore.
People move to cities for work. All kinds of work. There aren't jobs in the sticks and we are no longer an agrarian society.
The JP Morgan report has made it clear we will not beat people with a stick to return to a pre-covid world. So, I'm afraid that's not right either.
Sure, but my guess is that companies will figure out a way to pay their WFH people less, or figure out a new pay scale for the WFH folks.
Finally, we have to stop with the obvious incorrect statement that leads to wildly incorrect worldviews.
Nope. Cities will continue to grow.
Milwaukee's population peaked with the 1960 census at 741,324. The Census Bureau puts Milwaukee's 2022 population at 563,305, a decline of 26%
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/milwaukeecitywisconsin
Chicago's population peaked with the 1950 census at 3,620,962. The Census Bureau puts Chicago's 2022 population at 2,665,039, a decline of 28%
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/chicagocityillinois
I assume Hards is not over 70, so this statement that cities continue to grow stopped being the case before he was born, and repeating this falsehood over and over and over will not make it true.
As noted in previous posts, if he means the metropolitan areas, they also stopped growing in the last five years, largely driven by the tectonic changes caused by COVID. JP Morgan's report clearly states we are not returning to all those big buildings in the city centers like we did pre-pandemic. So, if you don't have to go to that building anymore, do you really want to live on the commuter lines in the metropolitan area?
Do not underestimate what shutting down and restarting the global economy did in 2020. It changed the trajectory of everyone's lives.
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JP Morgan Asset Management just published a 70-page report on the implications of the shutdown/restart of the economy around COVID in 2020.
In short, this event will probably be the biggest economic event the economy will have faced in our lifetime.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/siag-post-covid-world-final.pdf#page=6
Chapter 6 - The urban commuter economy
COVID reshaped the daily lives of millions of workers overnight and in the process shattered a commuter ecosystem that had served major urban cores for decades. While the pieces are being put back together, the system remains fragile. Costly, capital-intensive mass transit systems have been starved of the fare revenue needed to maintain service, potentially rolling those costs up a level to the municipal or state fiscal authorities.
State and municipal entities, although able to weather the storm of COVID fairly well, can ill afford to shoulder the burden of money-losing mass transit systems. The lagged effect of property tax declines may add
pressure to cut costs and services, raising the specter of a downward spiral in economic activity, further population loss and declining property values. We can take some hope from the fact that previous downturns
have proven the resiliency of the urban model, but caution is warranted. The need for cities to serve as a hub of large office populations is being questioned as never before.
Chapter 7 - Work and home life after the Pandemic
In the coming years, employers and employees will renegotiate how we live and work across the physical and virtual worlds. The need to commute to an office, for generations accepted as a given, is now subject to the question, How much do we really need commutes, or offices? It will be impossible to “unring the bell” and return to pre-COVID work patterns as if nothing has changed.
For the costly and capital-intensive sectors of the economy that served the pre-COVID workforce, the prospects are challenging – particularly mass transit systems and marginal urban offices. Supply exceeds demand and may for quite a while as prices slowly adjust and assets are repurposed to the extent possible.
On the flip side, there is too little logistics infrastructure to serve the evolving e-commerce marketplace and too little residential real estate to serve the population of young families. In these sectors, favorable supply and demand characteristics will deliver strong returns on capital over the long term.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
So if we refrain from the MUscoop tactic of way over ANALysing the precise wording of every post, causing everyone to constantly get lost in the trees and instead ook at what the message being conveyed is, dgies is correct.
10, 20, or 30 years from now, there will be a place with many people called "Milwaukee" or "Chicago." The real question is why do people choose to live there? If the answer is no longer to be close to an office, this means a tectonic change for the city and the lifestyle of living in a city. And if this is the case, what becomes of the large buildings in the city center? See my post above; the stock market already wiped out the last 27 years of office real estate gains as it fears the true value of those buildings.
Restated, cities have to remake themselves. And they will. But first, we have to "blank slate" everything we know about a city and re-think its purpose and goals. In other words, this entire debate is about whether this is still true. At the very least it can no longer just be said, as done here, as if it is stating a fact. We don't know if it is a fact anymore.
The JP Morgan report has made it clear we will not beat people with a stick to return to a pre-covid world. So, I'm afraid that's not right either.
Finally, we have to stop with the obvious incorrect statement that leads to wildly incorrect worldviews.
Milwaukee's population peaked with the 1960 census at 741,324. The Census Bureau puts Milwaukee's 2022 population at 563,305, a decline of 26%
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/milwaukeecitywisconsin
Chicago's population peaked with the 1950 census at 3,620,962. The Census Bureau puts Chicago's 2022 population at 2,665,039, a decline of 28%
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/chicagocityillinois
I assume Hards is not over 70, so this statement that cities continue to grow stopped being the case before he was born, and repeating this falsehood over and over and over will not make it true.
Now if he means the metropolitan areas, as noted in previous posts, they also stopped growing in the last five years, largely driven by the tectonic changes caused by COVID. JP Morgan's report clearly states we are not going back to all those big buildings in the city centers like we did pre-pandemic. So, if you don't have to go to that building anymore, do you really want to live don't the commuter lines in the metropolitan area?
Do not underestimate what shutting down and restarting the global economy did in 2020. It changed the trajectory of everyone's lives.
I’m not reading that.
But I’m very happy for your success or very sad for your misfortune
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People don’t just congregate to cities due to commerce. And I doubt WFH will make your grandchild “not recognize” life today. That’s hyperbolic nonsense.
Yes, they congregate in cities for more than commerce. But commerce drives the tax base, and living close to the city center is the largest driving force for why people pay to live in a city in the first place.
What happens when a significant number of the city's residents are no longer required to live near the office?
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I’m not reading that.
But I’m very happy for your success or very sad for your misfortune
Your ignorance of many things you comment about has has long been established. It is not necessary to tell us you prefer to stay this way.
May God have mercy on your soul.
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Your ignorance of many things you comment about gas has long been established. It is not necessary to tell us you prefer to stay this way.
May God have mercy on your soul.
God isn’t real
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God isn’t real
And this statement, combined with the falling populations in Milwaukee and Chicago, is why this is happening to the Jesuit University in Milwaukee.
https://eu.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2020/12/01/marquette-layoffs-enrollment-declines-raise-questions-diversity/6180047002/
Marquette — which as Wisconsin's largest private college enrolls 11,550 students — this fall saw its smallest freshman class in more than two decades, according to university data. The class has 1,647 students, 350 students fewer than the university had expected. The decline is in line with a 16% decline among first-year students nationwide.
"To think that there is an easy way to get out of this, other than structurally changing, I believe is not realistic," Lovell said. "We are going to do everything we can to preserve who we are and what we do, but we also have to deal with the realities of what's happening in our industry."
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And this statement, combined with the falling populations in Milwaukee and Chicago, is why this is happening to the Jesuit University in Milwaukee.
https://eu.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2020/12/01/marquette-layoffs-enrollment-declines-raise-questions-diversity/6180047002/
Marquette — which as Wisconsin's largest private college enrolls 11,550 students — this fall saw its smallest freshman class in more than two decades, according to university data. The class has 1,647 students, 350 students fewer than the university had expected. The decline is in line with a 16% decline among first-year students nationwide.
"To think that there is an easy way to get out of this, other than structurally changing, I believe is not realistic," Lovell said. "We are going to do everything we can to preserve who we are and what we do, but we also have to deal with the realities of what's happening in our industry."
Cool. Sounds like they understand the problem and are working on coming up with a plan to attack it.
Good for them. That’s smart.
Hopefully, they don’t become the next NFL
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Yes, they congregate in cities for more than commerce. But commerce drives the tax base, and living close to the city center is the largest driving force for why people pay to live in a city in the first place.
What happens when a significant number of the city's residents are no longer required to live near the office?
They will still live in cities because cities are cool.
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Cool. Sounds like they understand the problem and are working on coming up with a plan to attack it.
Good for them. That’s smart.
Hopefully, they don’t become the next NFL
LOL...exactly. Being smaller isn't worse. It's a strategic decision.
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LOL...exactly. Being smaller isn't worse. It's a strategic decision.
Will Marquette have to move because local cities are smaller?
No, they’ll readjust how they do things and acclimate to a changing climate.
21 pages of Heisey raging against the decline of cities because lord knows why
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Will Marquette have to move because local cities are smaller?
No, they’ll readjust how they do things and acclimate to a changing climate.
21 pages of Heisey raging against the decline of cities because lord knows why
He's an intellectual.
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Marquette — which as Wisconsin's largest private college enrolls 11,550 students — this fall saw its smallest freshman class in more than two decades, according to university data. The class has 1,647 students, 350 students fewer than the university had expected. The decline is in line with a 16% decline among first-year students nationwide.
This is old information.
There are 1923 students enrolling in the class of 2027.
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This is old information.
There are 1923 students enrolling in the class of 2027.
Yes, the brilliant futurist picked out a 3-year-old article showing that enrollment was down in the midst of COVID.
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Nm
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LOL...exactly. Being smaller isn't worse. It's a strategic decision.
The Mayor of Milwaukee thinks the exact opposite of this decision.
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Here's how Milwaukee can reach Mayor Cavalier Johnson's ambitious goal to grow to 1 million people
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/solutions/2023/03/08/whats-path-for-milwaukee-to-reverse-population-decline-grow-again/69959649007/
Today, some cities in the south and southwest are seeing their populations soar. But more than a few proud American cities are shrinking, shedding thousands of residents. Milwaukee is one of them.
Mayor Cavalier Johnson hopes to reverse that trend. More than 100 years after Daniel Burnham’s exhortation, Johnson is making big plans of his own.
He wants Milwaukee to grow. A lot.
During his campaign for mayor, Johnson raised a few eyebrows when he talked about the city increasing its population to one million people, nearly twice its current size.
It is not just that Johnson wants Milwaukee to grow. He needs population and business growth to help relieve enormous pressure on the city’s long-term finances.
But you sense that Johnson’s moonshot for Milwaukee is about more than aspiring to grow; it is about inspiring a city to reimagine itself, to think differently about its future.
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Milwaukee is t growing to 1 million. That’s just nonsense. Regardless I was talking about Marquette’s enrollment.
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JP Morgan Asset Management just published a 70-page report on the implications of the shutdown/restart of the economy around COVID in 2020.
In short, this event will probably be the biggest economic event the economy will have faced in our lifetime.
Brother Heise:
It is a question of who is more authoritative:
JPMorgan Asset Management and its army of accountants, developers and financial analysts who know real estate, infrastructure and urban investment?
Or...
MU Scoop commentators?
Let's put it this way: I'm not making investment decisions based on the banter of MU Scoop Commentators.
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Brother Heise:
It is a question of who is more authoritative:
JPMorgan Asset Management and its army of accountants, developers and financial analysts who know real estate, infrastructure and urban investment?
Or...
MU Scoop commentators?
Let's put it this way: I'm not making investment decisions based on the banter of MU Scoop Commentators.
Is it surprising Covid is the biggest impact economically in our lifetimes? Don’t think I needed JP Morgan to tell me that
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A successful conversion of an office tower was done in the mid 90s of the former Gulf & Western building in Columbus Circle. The building had severe structural issues and when Gulf & Western moved out the building went into bankruptcy .
GE was the lender and decided to address the structural issues and convert the building to a hotel and residential. GE brought in Trump who promoted the building heavily, using Barbara Corcoran of Shark Tank fame, among others as brokers . They ending up selling all the condo units and it was successful conversion.
I am confident all these years later, there are enough talented and motivated people to process many of these vacant office buildings .
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Brother Heise:
It is a question of who is more authoritative:
JPMorgan Asset Management and its army of accountants, developers and financial analysts who know real estate, infrastructure and urban investment?
Or...
MU Scoop commentators?
Let's put it this way: I'm not making investment decisions based on the banter of MU Scoop Commentators.
I'll bite.
Sultan, 🐷🐷, Rico. Pakuni, Hards, et al are all bigger experts on, well, everything. Especially when compared to industry experts, analysts, and other smart people.
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I know I trust them.
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It is a question of who is more authoritative:
JPMorgan Asset Management and its army of accountants, developers and financial analysts who know real estate, infrastructure and urban investment?
Or...
MU Scoop commentators?
Let's put it this way: I'm not making investment decisions based on the banter of MU Scoop Commentators.
I can't speak for any of our fellow Scoopers on either side of this fun back-and-forth ... but personally, I don't claim to know more than JPMorgan's top people do, and I will gladly defer to them:
++ JPMorgan is not leaving cities. Indeed, America's largest bank has actually doubled down on both NYC and DC with expensive new digs. Apparently, the army of accountants, developers and financial analysts who know real estate, infrastructure and urban investment are making huge bets on big cities.
++ JPMorgan management requires workers to show up at the office or face harsh consequences. To the small percentage of employees who have grumbled, management's response has basically been: "OK, there's the door."
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I'll bite.
Sultan, 🐷🐷, Rico. Pakuni, Hards, et al are all bigger experts on, well, everything. Especially when compared to industry experts, analysts, and other smart people.
https://twitter.com/nocontexthumans/status/1672632840004026371?s=46&t=el-XnIMOEDcxAw3lmg3L5A
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I'll bite.
Sultan, 🐷🐷, Rico. Pakuni, Hards, et al are all bigger experts on, well, everything. Especially when compared to industry experts, analysts, and other smart people.
I didn’t listen to the experts when it came to covid. I listened to scoop
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I'll bite.
Sultan, 🐷🐷, Rico. Pakuni, Hards, et al are all bigger experts on, well, everything. Especially when compared to industry experts, analysts, and other smart people.
Someone doesn’t understand shifting goalposts.
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https://twitter.com/nocontexthumans/status/1672632840004026371?s=46&t=el-XnIMOEDcxAw3lmg3L5A
🤣🤣🤣
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Milwaukee is t growing to 1 million. That’s just nonsense. Regardless I was talking about Marquette’s enrollment.
Again with the scoop tactic of over ANALyzing precise wording.
He’s saying the most important metric for a city is its population.
If it's growing, it's healthy
If it is not growing, it's not healthy.
The city of Milwaukee stopped growing in 1960, Chicago in 1950.
Now, thanks to the shut down/restart, this trend is accelerating. And now the entire metro area of Milwaukee and Chicago are have stopped growing.
Below is just made up words to say the opposite, because that is what happens here.
No serious person in a city thinks this, and would ever think this.
LOL...exactly. Being smaller isn't worse. It's a strategic decision.
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Again with the scoop tactic of over ANALyzing precise wording.
He’s saying the most important metric for a city is its population.
If it's growing, it's healthy
If it is not growing, it's not healthy.
The city of Milwaukee stopped growing in 1960, Chicago in 1950.
Now, thanks to the shut down/restart, this trend is accelerating. And now the entire metro area of Milwaukee and Chicago are have stopped growing.
Below is just made up words to say the opposite, because that is what happens here.
No serious person in a city thinks this, and would ever think this.
He wasn’t talking about Milwaukee. He was talking about Marquette.
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++ JPMorgan management requires workers to show up at the office or face harsh consequences. To the small percentage of employees who have grumbled, management's response has basically been: "OK, there's the door."
JP Morgan (along with Goldman Sachs) have been the two biggest outliers in forcing everyone back into the office.
So, how's or been going?
Like clockwork every year the demand everyone return, and every year this then happens.
We await the completion of the 2023 cycle.
JPMorgan loosens return to office rules for some workers after pushback: report
https://nypost.com/2022/04/27/jpmorgan-loosens-return-to-office-rules-after-pushback/
JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon is among those pushing workers to get back to the office – though he acknowledged in his annual shareholder letter last month that “working from home will become more permanent in American business.”
In the letter, Dimon predicted that some 50% of the bank’s overall workforce would likely need to work on site full-time in the future, while 40% would adopt a hybrid model and about 10% would be allowed work remotely full time.
During a Wall Street Journal event the previous summer, Dimon said the bank was “getting blowback about coming back internally, but that’s life.”
Business Insider reported last week that JPMorgan has a “general expectation” that hybrid workers across the bank will work at least three days per week in the office, according to leaked internal documents.
Demanding return-to-office plans are a source of friction on Wall Street – especially among junior employees.
As The Post reported earlier last month, some junior staffers at Goldman Sachs have grumbled that they are being “bullied” into working on site five days a week.
“In GS, the top management says it’s employees’ choice but internally they track which team has most in office attendance,” one Goldman employee wrote on the corporate message board Blind.
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He wasn’t talking about Milwaukee. He was talking about Marquette.
Still applies
Show me a major university that is shrinking enrollment and closing schools (because that is what happens when you shrink) that is becoming more desirable?
And why is this happening? 40% of MU incoming classes are from metro Chicago, 30% from metro Milwaukee.
The pool is shrinking.
The area’s population growth and the school’s size are the same thing.
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Still applies
Show me a major university that is shrinking enrollment and closing schools (because that is what happens when you shrink) that is becoming more desirable?
And why is this happening? 40% of MU incoming classes are from metro Chicago, 30% from metro Milwaukee.
The pool is shrinking.
The area’s population growth and the school’s size are the same thing.
And Marquette’s leadership as you’ve already posted has recognized the future will be different and are adapting.
Cities are adapting and planning for the future.
The idea Marquette or cities may look different in the future or will change how they thrive in the future is a daily battle and has been for their entire existences.
You’re wasting a lot of energy pretending what’s said on scoop somehow equals what leaders at these places understand and are/will do.
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Still applies
Show me a major university that is shrinking enrollment and closing schools (because that is what happens when you shrink) that is becoming more desirable?
And why is this happening? 40% of MU incoming classes are from metro Chicago, 30% from metro Milwaukee.
The pool is shrinking.
The area’s population growth and the school’s size are the same thing.
Not only have you engaged in extreme goalpost shifting throughout these topic, you are also conflating multiple issues.
And again, it's nonsense to suggest that a University's health is solely tied to the quantity of its enrollment. Colleges and universities strategically decide to get smaller. Focusing on high net tuition programs (engineering, business, nursing) is a must lower cost option than trying to increase the geographic footprint of the university.
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JP Morgan (along with Goldman Sachs) have been the two biggest outliers in forcing everyone back into the office.
So, how's or been going?
Like clockwork every year the demand everyone return, and every year this then happens.
We await the completion of the 2023 cycle.
JPMorgan loosens return to office rules for some workers after pushback: report
https://nypost.com/2022/04/27/jpmorgan-loosens-return-to-office-rules-after-pushback/
JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon is among those pushing workers to get back to the office – though he acknowledged in his annual shareholder letter last month that “working from home will become more permanent in American business.”
In the letter, Dimon predicted that some 50% of the bank’s overall workforce would likely need to work on site full-time in the future, while 40% would adopt a hybrid model and about 10% would be allowed work remotely full time.
During a Wall Street Journal event the previous summer, Dimon said the bank was “getting blowback about coming back internally, but that’s life.”
Business Insider reported last week that JPMorgan has a “general expectation” that hybrid workers across the bank will work at least three days per week in the office, according to leaked internal documents.
Demanding return-to-office plans are a source of friction on Wall Street – especially among junior employees.
As The Post reported earlier last month, some junior staffers at Goldman Sachs have grumbled that they are being “bullied” into working on site five days a week.
“In GS, the top management says it’s employees’ choice but internally they track which team has most in office attendance,” one Goldman employee wrote on the corporate message board Blind.
I wrote about JPMorgan because that's who dgies mentioned. And most of JPMorgan's work force is back in the office most of the time.
I'm not claiming that's a nationwide trend, or something GS or anyone else will follow. Because, unlike you, I don't smugly (your own word to describe yourself) constantly claim that I know what the future holds.
dgies mentioned JPMorgan's people as authorities on this subject, and I merely pointed out that the majority of its employees are required to work in office and that the company has doubled-down on its commitment to big cities.
It seems odd that people as intelligent and wired-in as JPMorgan's management team would decide to spend beau coup bucks on huge, new office buildings in NYC and DC if they felt the commercial future of those cities was doomed. But who knows? Maybe Dimon & Co. are fools, too.
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Again with the scoop tactic of over ANALyzing precise wording.
He’s saying the most important metric for a city is its population.
If it's growing, it's healthy
If it is not growing, it's not healthy.
The city of Milwaukee stopped growing in 1960, Chicago in 1950.
Now, thanks to the shut down/restart, this trend is accelerating. And now the entire metro area of Milwaukee and Chicago are have stopped growing.
Below is just made up words to say the opposite, because that is what happens here.
No serious person in a city thinks this, and would ever think this.
Didn't you post a source earlier that said Chicago IS growing, just not as fast as others?
Edit:
June 2022
MacArthur Foundation/UIC data report analyzing Chicago Metro population trends
https://uofi.app.box.com/s/rgf5h8oc8bnjq9ua2463oolvdj23qyun/file/970584591836
Excerpts from its conclusion
If individuals vote with their feet, Chicago is losing. As we noted at the beginning of this report, Chicago is the slowest growing major city in the U.S. Thousands of Chicago residents have left the city to seek better opportunities elsewhere. In this report, we’ve documented these trends, starting from the period of massive population growth in 1920 to its dramatic decline a century later.
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There is a huge difference between one company back in the office and whole downtowns coming back. Jamie Dimon (bless his heart, I agree with him), wants everyone back.
The rest of the world will fight this, especially out west where housing constrained people fled California for more habitable, house friendly and tax-friendly (read, cost of living friendly) areas. The fact that California lost a Congressional seat after almost doubling its delegation for the past 50 years, should be a warning. California's population loss isn't in the Central Valley, it's in LA and San Francisco MSAs.
And it's going to continue as long as California leads the nation in goofiness. As beautiful as that state is, the coastal part of the state is almost uninhabitable unless you are a 1 percenter, like Brother Rico, who lives in his gated community!
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There is a huge difference between one company back in the office and whole downtowns coming back. Jamie Dimon (bless his heart, I agree with him), wants everyone back.
The rest of the world will fight this, especially out west where housing constrained people fled California for more habitable, house friendly and tax-friendly (read, cost of living friendly) areas. The fact that California lost a Congressional seat after almost doubling its delegation for the past 50 years, should be a warning. California's population loss isn't in the Central Valley, it's in LA and San Francisco MSAs.
And it's going to continue as long as California leads the nation in goofiness. As beautiful as that state is, the coastal part of the state is almost uninhabitable unless you are a 1 percenter, like Brother Rico, who lives in his gated community!
The best part of being a 1% is not paying taxes, brother!
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There is a huge difference between one company back in the office and whole downtowns coming back. Jamie Dimon (bless his heart, I agree with him), wants everyone back.
The rest of the world will fight this, especially out west where housing constrained people fled California for more habitable, house friendly and tax-friendly (read, cost of living friendly) areas. The fact that California lost a Congressional seat after almost doubling its delegation for the past 50 years, should be a warning. California's population loss isn't in the Central Valley, it's in LA and San Francisco MSAs.
And it's going to continue as long as California leads the nation in goofiness. As beautiful as that state is, the coastal part of the state is almost uninhabitable unless you are a 1 percenter, like Brother Rico, who lives in his gated community!
You're the one who brought up JPMorgan, my friend. And it's their "army of accountants, developers and financial analysts who know real estate, infrastructure and urban investment" who have worked together to commit well over a billion bucks of their company's money on buildings for employees to work in NYC and DC.
As for Cali, I'm sure they'd rather keep gaining congressional seats in perpetuity vs. losing one of them. Now they only have one more than Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Arkansas combined! And now there's a small handful of nations with a GDP larger than California's.
I agree with you that much of California has a housing and cost-of-living crisis for all but the 1%. I also agree with Rico!
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And now there's a small handful of nations with a GDP larger than California's.
No. There is not.
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Business Insider published the most depressing piece I have read on this subject.
June 22, 2023
Middle America's 'doom loop'
Work from home is crushing Midwestern downtowns
https://www.businessinsider.com/midwest-america-cities-downtown-crisis-office-apocalypse-urban-doom-loop-2023-6
But Midwestern cities are also facing a crisis of their own — struggling to attract workers, residents, and visitors to their downtowns. And while many coastal metros experienced a "golden age" in the decade before the pandemic, cities in America's heartland have been struggling since well before COVID came around.
In order to pull out of their tailspin, economists and urban planners say many Midwestern cities need to get serious about improving amenities and boosting quality of life in their downtowns. Instead of being places where people are forced to go to work, leaders need to make their center cities into a destination that people actually want to visit.
"What I really think it comes down to in these places is that there's nothing special about any of the downtowns in any of these cities that would be attractive to new residents," Michael Hicks, a professor of economics and business research at Ball State University in Indiana, told Insider. "The cities just don't have the fundamental amenities that would attract people."
Hollowed out
A good way to gauge just how much trouble Midwestern cities are in is to take a look at how many people their downtowns are actually attracting. Standing in the middle of the city square and counting people can be a bit tough though, so researchers at the University of Toronto have been analyzing anonymized cellphone data for the past few years to track the number of people physically present in central business districts each day. The granular, individual-level data provides a fuller picture of downtown vitality — both before and after the pandemic — than other measures such as office vacancy rates and mass-transit ridership. The conclusion the study draws for the heartland is bleak. Five of the bottom 10 cities in the tracker's most recent data, which measured the period from December 2022 to March 2023, were in the Midwest: St. Louis, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Cleveland, and Kansas City, Missouri. Nine of the 13 Midwestern cities tracked in the study were in the bottom half of the rankings.
Other indicators of central business district health — from office workers to vacant real-estate space — are similarly stark for many of these cities. Jacob Frey, the mayor of Minneapolis, recently said he expects his city's downtown workforce will max out at about 75% of its pre-pandemic numbers, and a recent study showed that 21.2 million square feet of office space in the city is sitting vacant. In April, Salesforce announced it would give up one-quarter of its office space in the Indianapolis Salesforce Tower, Indiana's tallest building. The Midwest as a whole has also struggled to attract new residents and hold onto its existing residents in recent years. Between April 2020 and July 2022, the region saw a net decline of more than 400,000 residents. And things could get even worse for downtowns if they fall into the so-called "urban doom loop." Commercial property taxes make up a large chunk of many city budgets, so as office vacancies rise, the decreased revenue could force leaders to curtail municipal services or make cuts to key programs. Declining services and quality of life in turn pushes residents out, leading to a self-reinforcing exodus. Without serious changes, these midsize cities in the middle of the country could be quietly sliding into oblivion.
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Business Insider published the most depressing piece I have read on this subject.
June 22, 2023
Middle America's 'doom loop'
Work from home is crushing Midwestern downtowns
https://www.businessinsider.com/midwest-america-cities-downtown-crisis-office-apocalypse-urban-doom-loop-2023-6
But Midwestern cities are also facing a crisis of their own — struggling to attract workers, residents, and visitors to their downtowns. And while many coastal metros experienced a "golden age" in the decade before the pandemic, cities in America's heartland have been struggling since well before COVID came around.
In order to pull out of their tailspin, economists and urban planners say many Midwestern cities need to get serious about improving amenities and boosting quality of life in their downtowns. Instead of being places where people are forced to go to work, leaders need to make their center cities into a destination that people actually want to visit.
"What I really think it comes down to in these places is that there's nothing special about any of the downtowns in any of these cities that would be attractive to new residents," Michael Hicks, a professor of economics and business research at Ball State University in Indiana, told Insider. "The cities just don't have the fundamental amenities that would attract people."
Hollowed out
A good way to gauge just how much trouble Midwestern cities are in is to take a look at how many people their downtowns are actually attracting. Standing in the middle of the city square and counting people can be a bit tough though, so researchers at the University of Toronto have been analyzing anonymized cellphone data for the past few years to track the number of people physically present in central business districts each day. The granular, individual-level data provides a fuller picture of downtown vitality — both before and after the pandemic — than other measures such as office vacancy rates and mass-transit ridership. The conclusion the study draws for the heartland is bleak. Five of the bottom 10 cities in the tracker's most recent data, which measured the period from December 2022 to March 2023, were in the Midwest: St. Louis, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Cleveland, and Kansas City, Missouri. Nine of the 13 Midwestern cities tracked in the study were in the bottom half of the rankings.
Other indicators of central business district health — from office workers to vacant real-estate space — are similarly stark for many of these cities. Jacob Frey, the mayor of Minneapolis, recently said he expects his city's downtown workforce will max out at about 75% of its pre-pandemic numbers, and a recent study showed that 21.2 million square feet of office space in the city is sitting vacant. In April, Salesforce announced it would give up one-quarter of its office space in the Indianapolis Salesforce Tower, Indiana's tallest building. The Midwest as a whole has also struggled to attract new residents and hold onto its existing residents in recent years. Between April 2020 and July 2022, the region saw a net decline of more than 400,000 residents. And things could get even worse for downtowns if they fall into the so-called "urban doom loop." Commercial property taxes make up a large chunk of many city budgets, so as office vacancies rise, the decreased revenue could force leaders to curtail municipal services or make cuts to key programs. Declining services and quality of life in turn pushes residents out, leading to a self-reinforcing exodus. Without serious changes, these midsize cities in the middle of the country could be quietly sliding into oblivion.
Good thing Marquette understands this and is addressing it.
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Good thing Marquette understands this and is addressing it.
The good news is that Milwaukee is ranked 16th best out of 63 cities on the recovery Downtown - and basically tied for 3rd among Midwest cities.
http://downtownrecovery.com/dashboards/recovery_ranking.html
There are several new residential highrises going up in Downtown, the Third Ward and the immediate surrounding area. It certainly seems to be bucking the trend.
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The good news is that Milwaukee is ranked 16th best out of 63 cities on the recovery Downtown - and basically tied for 3rd among Midwest cities.
http://downtownrecovery.com/dashboards/recovery_ranking.html
There are several new residential highrises going up in Downtown, the Third Ward and the immediate surrounding area. It certainly seems to be bucking the trend.
Milwaukee is a great city. Like any big city, it has a lot of problems. Poverty, crime, segregation, traffic/reckless driving but the potential to do something better remains.
The 7-94 debate will be worth watching.
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The good news is that Milwaukee is ranked 16th best out of 63 cities on the recovery Downtown - and basically tied for 3rd among Midwest cities.
http://downtownrecovery.com/dashboards/recovery_ranking.html
There are several new residential highrises going up in Downtown, the Third Ward and the immediate surrounding area. It certainly seems to be bucking the trend.
Nope.
Doomed. It has been decreed.
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No debate, minds already maid up. Dog and pony show two follow, hey?
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better start allowing school choice(s)...not tellin people what to do with their minds; their minds, their choice eyn'a?
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better start allowing school choice(s)...not tellin people what to do with their minds; their minds, their choice eyn'a?
School choice is a joke and horrible for society
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School choice is a joke and horrible for society
is one person's opinion and you are entitled to it
milw public schools are beyond reproach along with many others. the proficiency levels of reading, science, and math are not a joke because it's not funny
this all plays a role in the futures of our cities and it ain't pretty
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better start allowing school choice(s)...not tellin people what to do with their minds; their minds, their choice eyn'a?
I wouldn't have guessed you were so solidly pro choice! Glad to have you on the team that doesn't think government should be climbing up into the private parts of pregnant women. Thanks!
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We need city equity! All the cities doing well should pass on their taxpayers’ contributions across this great land to other cities so all can be equal.
Should also consider making successful individuals physically move from strong cities to lesser ones so they can help out where needed.
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We need city equity! All the cities doing well should pass on their taxpayers’ contributions across this great land to other cities so all can be equal.
Should also consider making successful individuals physically move from strong cities to lesser ones so they can help out where needed.
You know that already happens with tax dollars, right? Cities only keep a fraction of their dollars so that we can continue to support rural counties/states.
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You know that already happens with tax dollars, right? Cities only keep a fraction of their dollars so that we can continue to support rural counties/states.
I’m talking major city to major city. It’s only right.
Perhaps add a surcharge to taxpayers in strong cities/counties, which is Re-distributed to residents in poor performing cities.
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Again, already happening.
https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal-government/
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I wouldn't have guessed you were so solidly pro choice! Glad to have you on the team that doesn't think government should be climbing up into the private parts of pregnant women. Thanks!
you ar a funny guy there 82, but i ain't takin the bait. however, you do realize that forcing kids to go to PUBLIC schools and rather than having a choice is racism pure and simple. there are so many families in the inner city who feel trapped. they feel one of their tickets out of the cesspool the inner cities and access to the american dream is school choice. what happened to the "it's for the children' mantra?
you know the real reason-follow the money. the ole money washing machine is running on fast spin cycle. giving parents/kids a choice could help make public schools stronger if the powers that be allow it, but that's a BIG ? with those in charge. what do they have to be afraid of? failure??
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I’m talking major city to major city. It’s only right.
Perhaps add a surcharge to taxpayers in strong cities/counties, which is Re-distributed to residents in poor performing cities.
I love your idea of having blue cities stop subsidizing red rural areas.
Alas, even if enacted, your policy would be short lived as our brilliant futurist has declared that cities are doomed.
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you ar a funny guy there 82, but i ain't takin the bait. however, you do realize that forcing kids to go to PUBLIC schools and rather than having a choice is racism pure and simple. there are so many families in the inner city who feel trapped. they feel one of their tickets out of the cesspool the inner cities and access to the american dream is school choice. what happened to the "it's for the children' mantra?
you know the real reason-follow the money. the ole money washing machine is running on fast spin cycle. giving parents/kids a choice could help make public schools stronger if the powers that be allow it, but that's a BIG ? with those in charge. what do they have to be afraid of? failure??
You'll be happy that the GOP majority in my state, North Carolina, is close to passing a bill expanding school choice to the point that even the very richest people in the state can receive taxpayer subsidies so their children can attend religious or other private schools.
https://www.wral.com/story/nc-house-passes-bill-to-expand-private-school-vouchers-by-400-million-eligibility-to-all-family-incomes/20865782/
Welfare for millionaires - perfect!
And again, pregnant women who don't want the government to control their bodies are grateful for your support.
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however, you do realize that forcing kids to go to PUBLIC schools and rather than having a choice is racism pure and simple.
Lol. No it isn’t.
I’m not against school choice by any means but let’s not make up the definition of words.
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you ar a funny guy there 82, but i ain't takin the bait. however, you do realize that forcing kids to go to PUBLIC schools and rather than having a choice is racism pure and simple. there are so many families in the inner city who feel trapped. they feel one of their tickets out of the cesspool the inner cities and access to the american dream is school choice. what happened to the "it's for the children' mantra?
you know the real reason-follow the money. the ole money washing machine is running on fast spin cycle. giving parents/kids a choice could help make public schools stronger if the powers that be allow it, but that's a BIG ? with those in charge. what do they have to be afraid of? failure??
Why don't those inner city families just move to a school district with better schools?
Why should private schools receive public tax dollars?
You want to allow families/children the choice of which public school to attend? Sure, let's do that.
The other thing that would help strengthen public schools is the uber-wealthy corporations and individuals paying their fair share.
PS. The American dream died in the late 70s/early 80s
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School choice is a joke and horrible for society
🤡🤡🤡
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Why don't those inner city families just move to a school district with better schools?
easy for you to say or ask. some believe getting a better education is their ticket out of the hell holes they are stuck in
Why should private schools receive public tax dollars? why not?
You want to allow families/children the choice of which public school to attend? Sure, let's do that.
The other thing that would help strengthen public schools is the uber-wealthy corporations and individuals paying their fair share. kinda like the big guy's son, eyna?
PS. The American dream died in the late 70s/early 80s why did it die? more speed bumps?
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Lol. No it isn’t.
I’m not against school choice by any means but let’s not make up the definition of words.
no it's not funny and yes it is racist. denying inner city minorities the opportunities to choose where their children get their education only giving them ONE OPTION, a very poor one at that...let them eat cake and to hell with them
we give them options on where they can spend OUR welfare monies
jesmu cracks me up, but not laughingly-why don't they just move?? now if that ain't the elitist question of the day
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no it's not funny and yes it is racist. denying inner city minorities the opportunities to choose where their children get their education only giving them ONE OPTION, a very poor one at that...let them eat cake and to hell with them
we give them options on where they can spend OUR welfare monies
jesmu cracks me up, but not laughingly-why don't they just move?? now if that ain't the elitist question of the day
I am curious, where do all of these "seats" in private and suburban schools exist ready and willing to take inner city kids on vouchers? About 70,000 kids attend a MKE public school. If given the true opportunity to attend a suburban or private high performing school, 50-60-70% of families say yes? Let's call it 60%. Where exactly will these 40,000+ kids actually go? Your response is probably a lottery system, right? For the sake of the argument we open up 5,000 spots for inner city kids, okay...well, what about the other 65,000 still in the schools? And what about the next year, do these private and suburban schools actually have the capacity to accept thousands of kids every year. The answer is no, and you know that.
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Why should private schools receive public tax dollars? why not?
If they want to accept public tax money, they will need to accept government regulations to go along with that. Will the private schools be okay with that, ya think?
The other thing that would help strengthen public schools is the uber-wealthy corporations and individuals paying their fair share.
kinda like the big guy's son, eyna?
Sure. Weird response
PS. The American dream died in the late 70s/early 80s
why did it die? more speed bumps?
Correction. The death started in the early 70s.
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
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9 out of 10 for the Hunter Biden drop
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no it's not funny and yes it is racist. denying inner city minorities the opportunities to choose where their children get their education only giving them ONE OPTION, a very poor one at that...let them eat cake and to hell with them
It's not racist if it impacts everyone in the district equally regardless of race.
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It's not racist if it impacts everyone in the district equally regardless of race.
That’s not how this works. You’re woke, you know better.
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It's not racist if it impacts everyone in the district equally regardless of race.
it doesn't impact everyone equally
to try to answer reinko' concern-
this is not going to be corrected this year or next year or the year after that-this will take time for charter schools to fill the vacuum until public schools get with the program and change how they are trying to "teach" or more schools can be formed. note, i didn't say built because there is a lot of wasted infrastructure already in existence
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That’s not how this works. You’re woke, you know better.
Anyone who uses the word ‘woke’ seriously, vaults to the top of my list of fools.
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Anyone who uses the word ‘woke’ seriously, vaults to the top of my list of fools.
Yeah it's the strangest dog whistle
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School choice is a joke and horrible for society
Any more so than urban public school systems?
Go to Chicago, take away the Separate and Vastly Unequal Magnet schools and you end up with an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions. And now the Chicago Teachers Unions want to do to the rest of the city what they've done to the public schools.
God Help Us! Save us from ourselves!!!!!
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Another school that is dependent on the Chicago area for students ...
June 26, 2023
Western Illinois University officials look for higher recruitment, retention rates with ‘reorganization’
https://www.wgem.com/2023/06/26/wiu-officials-look-higher-recruitment-retention-rates-with-reorganization/
Effective Monday, WIU downsized the number of divisions, going from seven to six. That includes eliminating the Vice President for Enrollment Management division, which was created around 4-years ago and was most recently occupied by Amber Schultz, who came to Macomb in the fall of 2021.
In the last 10 years or so, WIU has seen its student population decline by more than 5,000 students, going from around 13,500 in 2006 to 7,643 students last fall.
Executive Director of Retention Initiatives Justin Schuch said his goal is to increase retention rates by 1% every school year.
“It’s been difficult for a number of reasons, we’re still dealing with some COVID learning loss like many of our peer institutions,” Schuch said.
Schuch said that goal first came into place when Huang first came to WIU 2-years ago, but they’ve yet to reach that goal. He believes this new reorganization is a step in the right direction.
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MU has a detailed interactive visualization of its enrollment data back to 2005. You can slice and dice the data in an endless number of ways.
https://www.marquette.edu/institutional-research-analysis/interactive-reports/enrollment-dash.php
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MU has a detailed interactive visualization of its enrollment data back to 2005. You can slice and dice the data in an endless number of ways.
https://www.marquette.edu/institutional-research-analysis/interactive-reports/enrollment-dash.php
Bottom line is, Marquette should move to Mobile
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MU has a detailed interactive visualization of its enrollment data back to 2005. You can slice and dice the data in an endless number of ways.
https://www.marquette.edu/institutional-research-analysis/interactive-reports/enrollment-dash.php
Interesting data from MU's Interactive
I looked only at undergrads.
MU has "lost" about 1,000 since 2019, its pre-COVID peak
(The measure is "Full-Time Equivalent")
Total Change From
Term' Undergraduate Peak Yr (2019)
Fall 2005 7,687 -602
Fall 2006 7,729 -559
Fall 2007 7,659 -629
Fall 2008 7,755 -534
Fall 2009 7,822 -466
Fall 2010 7,848 -441
Fall 2011 8,128 -160
Fall 2012 8,077 -211
Fall 2013 8,152 -136
Fall 2014 8,189 -100
Fall 2015 8,113 -176
Fall 2016 8,062 -226
Fall 2017 8,129 -159
Fall 2018 8,226 -63
Fall 2019 8,288 0
Fall 2020 7,818 -470
Fall 2021 7,481 -808
Fall 2022 7,299 -990 (-11.94%)
Where did they lose these 990 students?
Change from 2019 to 2022 (number and %) and 2022 term size.
By College
Arts and Sciences -200 (-8.44%) 2,172
Business Admin -158 (-9.94%) 1,428
Communications -169 (-19.48%) 697
Engineering -306 (-24.49%) 942
Nursing +57 (+9.49%) 661
Health Sciences -143 (-10.84%) 1,177
Education -72 (-24.49%) 221
By Family History
First Generation -179 (-9.81%) 1,645
Not First Generation -811 (-12.54%) 5,654
By Gender
Female -432 (-9.56%) 4,085
Male -558 (-14.79%) 3,214
(note that the 2022 term is 55% Female and 44% Male)
By Region
Wisconsin -33 (-1.28%) 2,552 (35% of 2022 term)
Illinois -565 (-16.68%) 2,823 (39% of 2022 term)
Other Midwest -165 (-16.30%) 847 (12% of 2022 term)
Other US -133 (-12.46%) 934 (13% of 2022 term)
Outside US -94 (-39.63%) 143 (2% of 2022 term)
By Race
White -768 (-13.53%) 4,908 (67% of 2022 term)
Students of Color -146 (-6.28%) 2,179 (30% of 2022 term)
International -76 (-26.33%) 2212 (3% of 2022 term)
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What do I see in this data?
MU has lost about 12% of its enrollment since 2019
Regarding college, good to see nursing has increased. Very surprised that engineering is down so much. Do not expect this from STEM. Can anyone add color here?
No surprise or comment about family history change
Also no surprise or comment about gender change
Region tells a big story ... MU has lost a ton of students from Illinois. This is not only not surprising to me, but the reason I started this thread. As much as you like to argue with me, Illinois and the Chicago area are in deep trouble. People are fleeing (think large Detroit or St. Louis). And since it is the largest region that MU draws students from, MU is feeling it.
International and outside the US are down a lot. But it is small and can be explained by the US COVID restriction from 2020 to early this year (unreasonable restrictions... ask Novak Djokovic).
No surprise or comment about race change
One encouraging sign
The 2022 Freshman class bounced back to 2,080, only down -171 (7.61%) from its pre-could peak of 2018 (2,251). I hope this continues.
What is the solution? As explained in the early pages, MU needs to transcend the trouble of its region and become a national university. Think Washington University in St. Louis.
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In the last 10 years or so, WIU has seen its student population decline by more than 5,000 students, going from around 13,500 in 2006 to 7,643 students last fall.
What a weird way to phrase that. Why say "10 years or so" when you could say 16? Why say around 13,500 for 2006 when you list the actual 2022 numbers?
Also, if this decline started in 2006, I think Western Illinois may have pre-existing issues. I am also not certain that Western Illinois is comparable to Marquette.
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What a weird way to phrase that. Why say "10 years or so" when you could say 16? Why say around 13,500 for 2006 when you list the actual 2022 numbers?
Also, if this decline started in 2006, I think Western Illinois may have pre-existing issues. I am also not certain that Western Illinois is comparable to Marquette.
Only comparable to MU in that both WIU and MU draw big from Illinois and the, especially, the Chicago Area. In both cases, as I detailed two posts above about MU, enrollment in schools that depend on getting students from these areas are seeing big declines. Also, at the beginning of this thread, I posted that Depaul was also seeing big declines in enrollment.
After that MU and WIU are not comparable.
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What a weird way to phrase that. Why say "10 years or so" when you could say 16? Why say around 13,500 for 2006 when you list the actual 2022 numbers?
Also, if this decline started in 2006, I think Western Illinois may have pre-existing issues. I am also not certain that Western Illinois is comparable to Marquette.
There is literally no good reason for any student to go to Western Illinois. Its academic reputation is mediocre at best, it has no noteworthy programs of study, it's located dead center in the least densely populated area of the state, and most decent-sized metropolitan areas in Illinois are closer to some other state university.
Out of all my friends and acquaintances in Illinois (including all of my kids' friends from high school), I only know one kid who went there, and that was because it was the only school that offered him a football scholarship.
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There is literally no good reason for any student to go to Western Illinois. Its academic reputation is mediocre at best, it has no noteworthy programs of study, it's located dead center in the least densely populated area of the state, and most decent-sized metropolitan areas in Illinois are closer to some other state university.
Out of all my friends and acquaintances in Illinois (including all of my kids' friends from high school), I only know one kid who went there, and that was because it was the only school that offered him a football scholarship.
Sister Chick:
First of all, to compare Marquette to Western Illinois is ridiculous. Marquette is a Top 100 National University. WIU is a regional university that serves the needs of Western and West Central Illinois. It's like comparing a bike to a BMW. They're both transportation but that's as far as it goes.
Second, Illinois' "directionals" are regional campuses designed to serve specific regions of Illinois. Western serves the far expanses of western Illinois, roughly from Galena to Quincy and east to Peoria. The biggest cities in the area are Peoria and the Quad Cities, from which it gets its major draw. It's an important driver to the region's economy, just as UW Platteville or UW Eau Claire are to theirs's. Thousands of people may not be able to go to college were it not for Western as well as its sister colleges in Illinois. To its credit, Western has taken over the old Black Hawk College and created a satellite campus in Moline.
My first job out of Marquette was in the Quad Cities and Western Illinois University was an important part of the region we lived in.
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Interesting data from MU's Interactive
This was a lot of words with you missing the very obvious pink elephant. Marquette reached it's peak in 2019. Then a global pandemic happened. The first class after the global pandemic was one of the largest in history. And this incoming class (which wasn't available in this dataset) is almost as large. So it's already recovering. Also in the incoming freshman class, enrollment increased in Illinois.
What is the solution? As explained in the early pages, MU needs to transcend the trouble of its region and become a national university. Think Washington University in St. Louis.
Marquette is already a national university. It is not Washington University and will never be Washington University. That's not to say that there won't be demographic challenges in the future (because there are) but they aren't the level doom and gloom (for Marquette) that you are painting it to be. It is doom and gloom for the Cardinal Stritches, Mount Mary's, Concordias, etc. of the world. Schools are Marquette's level and above will be fine. They even have the opportunity to increase their standing with the right strategy. I think Marquette's focus on programs that have a high future demand such as nursing, PT, biomed, etc. is a sound strategy.
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This was a lot of words with you missing the very obvious pink elephant. Marquette reached it's peak in 2019. Then a global pandemic happened. The first class after the global pandemic was one of the largest in history. And this incoming class (which wasn't available in this dataset) is almost as large. So it's already recovering. Also in the incoming freshman class, enrollment increased in Illinois.
Marquette is already a national university. It is not Washington University and will never be Washington University. That's not to say that there won't be demographic challenges in the future (because there are) but they aren't the level doom and gloom (for Marquette) that you are painting it to be. It is doom and gloom for the Cardinal Stritches, Mount Mary's, Concordias, etc. of the world. Schools are Marquette's level and above will be fine. They even have the opportunity to increase their standing with the right strategy. I think Marquette's focus on programs that have a high future demand such as nursing, PT, biomed, etc. is a sound strategy.
Exactly. Comparing MU’s situation (private, national university smack dag in the middle of a city) with WIU’s (rural, regional public) is, to put it lightly, an incredible stretch.
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Exactly. Comparing MU’s situation (private, national university smack dag in the middle of a city) with WIU’s (rural, regional public) is, to put it lightly, an incredible stretch.
Actually I did not compare MU to WIU. It was highlighted to note an extreme example of a school that rely on students from Illinois. Such schools are seeing larger declines than other geographic areas or factors. That is all.
The school I did compare MU against much earlier in this thread was Depaul. It has the same issues as MU but worse, as it has an even higher reliance on the Chicago area.
Again it comes back to a reality that is factual but controversial, the population of Chicago area is shrinking and schools like MU that rely on this area for students have challenges. That is a nice way for saying the will rely more on nursing and biomed, as TAMU noted, but layoffs and program closures in communications and Arts are coming.
Lastly, the secular movement of urban society will also present a challenge.
I wonder if the most progressive voices here would have picked MU if the we're 15 or 16 today.
To them Gesu is a more symbol of oppression and shame than in previous decades.
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Actually I did not compare MU to WIU. It was highlighted to note an extreme example of a school that rely on students from Illinois. Such schools are seeing larger declines than other geographic areas or factors. That is all.
The school I did compare MU against much earlier in this thread was Depaul. It has the same issues as MU but worse, as it has an even higher reliance on the Chicago area.
Again it comes back to a reality that is factual but controversial, the population of Chicago area is shrinking and schools like MU that rely on this area for students have challenges. That is a nice way for saying the will rely more on nursing and biomed, as TAMU noted, but layoffs and program closures in communications and Arts are coming.
Lastly, the secular movement of urban society will also present a challenge.
I wonder if the most progressive voices here would have picked MU if the we're 15 or 16 today.
To them Gesu is a more symbol of oppression and shame than in previous decades.
Oh look. Another strawman introduced when everyone calls your WIU comparison ridiculous. Shocking!
Anyway, I'm progressive, non-Catholic and would choose Marquette again in a heartbeat. One of my children went there. He's told his wife (not a MU alum and extremely progressive) that their kids should go their too. Oh and they live in Chicagoland and are not planning on leaving anytime soon.
So maybe stop the victimization?
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Oh look. Another strawman introduced when everyone calls your WIU comparison ridiculous. Shocking!
Anyway, I'm progressive, non-Catholic and would choose Marquette again in a heartbeat. One of my children went there. He's told his wife (not a MU alum and extremely progressive) that their kids should go their too. Oh and they live in Chicagoland and are not planning on leaving anytime soon.
So maybe stop the victimization?
But they don't live in Chicago proper? You proved Heisey right.
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He's told his wife (not a MU alum and extremely progressive) that their kids should go their too.
there*
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there*
Dammit. Got the first one right but not the second.
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This was a lot of words with you missing the very obvious pink elephant. Marquette reached it's peak in 2019. Then a global pandemic happened. The first class after the global pandemic was one of the largest in history. And this incoming class (which wasn't available in this dataset) is almost as large. So it's already recovering. Also in the incoming freshman class, enrollment increased in Illinois.
Thanks for your insights (given what you do for a living), and for providing actual facts.
Discounting the depths of the pandemic -- which wrought havoc on college enrollment at just about every university everywhere -- Marquette's last three non-pandemic incoming classes (2019, 2022, 2023) were/are among the best in school history.
This doesn't mean the future's guaranteed to be all seashells and balloons, or that Marquette's movers and shakers should avoid confronting serious issues that could (and probably will) affect the school's future. It just means that on the scale of Doomed to Darn Good, things at MU are closer to Darn Good than Doomed.
It's nice to be an alum of a university that's flourishing ... especially now that our basketball team is back on the national radar!
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^^^ per your Prez, the pandemic was still a national emergency until a couple of months ago
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Actually I did not compare MU to WIU. It was highlighted to note an extreme example of a school that rely on students from Illinois. Such schools are seeing larger declines than other geographic areas or factors. That is all.
I understand that both schools rely heavily on the Chicago metro area for enrollment and that's the connection you are trying to make. But the article you quoted indicated that WIU's decline started in 2006. That's pre-pandemic, pre-2008 recession, and I don't think there's any data to suggest that the Chicago metro area was shrinking at that time (or in the years following). I think WIU has some other pre-existing issues leading to its decline that you aren't giving proper credit to.
The school I did compare MU against much earlier in this thread was Depaul. It has the same issues as MU but worse, as it has an even higher reliance on the Chicago area.
I've been in and out of this thread and missed this part of the discussion so I would need to research more to understand what's going on with DePaul. I would hazard a guess that DePaul is likely being hit harder because they are a statistical outlier in size for a private religious university. IIRC, they were and I believe still are the largest in the world in that category. Larger enrollment is going to result in larger hits to enrollment.
Again it comes back to a reality that is factual but controversial, the population of Chicago area is shrinking and schools like MU that rely on this area for students have challenges. That is a nice way for saying the will rely more on nursing and biomed, as TAMU noted, but layoffs and program closures in communications and Arts are coming.
I don't believe your assertion that the Chicago area is shrinking is factual. The city population is shrinking but the metro area is still growing (at a slower rate than other metro areas). You can bring up change of address forms as much as you like but that's not a metric the captures overall growth in a metro area. Now what you are conflating is that there will be a demographic shift specifically in high school graduates likely to attend college in the Midwest. That is expected to hit in 2026 (18 years after the 2008 recession). That will impact universities including Marquette...but it's the smaller, less prestigious, private universities that are going to bear the brunt of the pain. We will see more Cardinal Stritches closing in the next dozen years or so.
Lastly, the secular movement of urban society will also present a challenge.
I wonder if the most progressive voices here would have picked MU if the we're 15 or 16 today.
To them Gesu is a more symbol of oppression and shame than in previous decades.
I think you are broad brushing a bit here, but you are right that the general secularization of the country will turn off some perspective students from Marquette. Personally, I think the amount will be negligible and easily replaced. Marquette is in the top 5% of universities in this country. As long as that doesn't change, I think there will always be demand. But that doesn't mean that the university shouldn't continue to improve and prepare for future challenges.
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Comparing Western makes little sense to me. Didn’t UIC student population increase over the years? Would some Chicago kids decide to go to UIC instead of Western if UIC is growing?
I’d think the overall Illinois system would have to be studied and not just western to draw broad conclusions..?
For Marquette, I am encouraged. They have upped their scholarship game a lot recently. That is the number one trend I want to see exponentially continue in that direction. Focus on net cost more than new buildings. Be competitive with Madison and Illinois. Scholarships, scholarships, scholarships.
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Also, as pointed out Western is in the middle of nowhere. Don’t kids want bigger cities? That’s my impression. Especially those with good economic futures?
Haven’t small towns and rural areas declined in population, a trend that would be in place during 2006 to now? Certainly 2006 to 2020? I’m not talking suburban rural locations (exurbs?), I mean Western Illinois Univ rural farm country?
Hasn’t DePaul failed on the net cost side. That is my impression versus Marquette.
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TAMU, I mentioned this earlier in this mess of a thread, but DePaul's budget issue at the moment is due to falling graduate-level enrollment.
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Sister Chick:
First of all, to compare Marquette to Western Illinois is ridiculous. Marquette is a Top 100 National University. WIU is a regional university that serves the needs of Western and West Central Illinois. It's like comparing a bike to a BMW. They're both transportation but that's as far as it goes.
Second, Illinois' "directionals" are regional campuses designed to serve specific regions of Illinois. Western serves the far expanses of western Illinois, roughly from Galena to Quincy and east to Peoria. The biggest cities in the area are Peoria and the Quad Cities, from which it gets its major draw. It's an important driver to the region's economy, just as UW Platteville or UW Eau Claire are to theirs's. Thousands of people may not be able to go to college were it not for Western as well as its sister colleges in Illinois. To its credit, Western has taken over the old Black Hawk College and created a satellite campus in Moline.
My first job out of Marquette was in the Quad Cities and Western Illinois University was an important part of the region we lived in.
If it is so important, why has their enrollment dropped by 40‰?
A big state school should have a better reason to exist other than to be the place to go if you are from Rock Island and didn't get into U of I.
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JP Morgan Asset Management just published a 70-page report on the implications of the shutdown/restart of the economy around COVID in 2020.
In short, this event will probably be the biggest economic event the economy will have faced in our lifetime.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/portfolio-insights/siag-post-covid-world-final.pdf#page=6
Chapter 6 - The urban commuter economy
COVID reshaped the daily lives of millions of workers overnight and in the process shattered a commuter ecosystem that had served major urban cores for decades. While the pieces are being put back together, the system remains fragile. Costly, capital-intensive mass transit systems have been starved of the fare revenue needed to maintain service, potentially rolling those costs up a level to the municipal or state fiscal authorities.
State and municipal entities, although able to weather the storm of COVID fairly well, can ill afford to shoulder the burden of money-losing mass transit systems. The lagged effect of property tax declines may add
pressure to cut costs and services, raising the specter of a downward spiral in economic activity, further population loss and declining property values. We can take some hope from the fact that previous downturns
have proven the resiliency of the urban model, but caution is warranted. The need for cities to serve as a hub of large office populations is being questioned as never before.
Chapter 7 - Work and home life after the Pandemic
In the coming years, employers and employees will renegotiate how we live and work across the physical and virtual worlds. The need to commute to an office, for generations accepted as a given, is now subject to the question, How much do we really need commutes, or offices? It will be impossible to “unring the bell” and return to pre-COVID work patterns as if nothing has changed.
For the costly and capital-intensive sectors of the economy that served the pre-COVID workforce, the prospects are challenging – particularly mass transit systems and marginal urban offices. Supply exceeds demand and may for quite a while as prices slowly adjust and assets are repurposed to the extent possible.
On the flip side, there is too little logistics infrastructure to serve the evolving e-commerce marketplace and too little residential real estate to serve the population of young families. In these sectors, favorable supply and demand characteristics will deliver strong returns on capital over the long term.
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So if we refrain from the MUscoop tactic of way over ANALysing the precise wording of every post, causing everyone to get lost in the trees constantly, and instead look at what the message being conveyed is, dgies is correct.
10, 20, or 30 years from now, there will be a place with many people called "Milwaukee" or "Chicago." The real question is, why do people choose to live there? If the answer is no longer to be close to an office, this means a tectonic change for the city and the lifestyle of living in a city. And if this is the case, what becomes of the large buildings in the city center? See my post above; the stock market already wiped out the last 27 years of office real estate gains as it fears the true value of those buildings.
Restated, cities have to remake themselves. And they will. But first, we have to "blank slate" everything we know about a city and re-think its purpose and goals. In other words, this entire debate is about whether this is still true. At the very least, it can no longer just be said, as done here, as if it is stating a fact. We don't know if it is a fact anymore.
The JP Morgan report has made it clear we will not beat people with a stick to return to a pre-covid world. So, I'm afraid that's not right either.
Finally, we have to stop with the obvious incorrect statement that leads to wildly incorrect worldviews.
Milwaukee's population peaked with the 1960 census at 741,324. The Census Bureau puts Milwaukee's 2022 population at 563,305, a decline of 26%
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/milwaukeecitywisconsin
Chicago's population peaked with the 1950 census at 3,620,962. The Census Bureau puts Chicago's 2022 population at 2,665,039, a decline of 28%
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/chicagocityillinois
I assume Hards is not over 70, so this statement that cities continue to grow stopped being the case before he was born, and repeating this falsehood over and over and over will not make it true.
As noted in previous posts, if he means the metropolitan areas, they also stopped growing in the last five years, largely driven by the tectonic changes caused by COVID. JP Morgan's report clearly states we are not returning to all those big buildings in the city centers like we did pre-pandemic. So, if you don't have to go to that building anymore, do you really want to live on the commuter lines in the metropolitan area?
Do not underestimate what shutting down and restarting the global economy did in 2020. It changed the trajectory of everyone's lives.
lmao
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I'll bite.
Sultan, 🐷🐷, Rico. Pakuni, Hards, et al are all bigger experts on, well, everything. Especially when compared to industry experts, analysts, and other smart people.
Do you need me to go through Jamie Dimon's history where is famously wrong on a lot of things?
Because that would be very easy. I'd probably miss a lot of his bad takes, but he's a clown.
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What a weird way to phrase that. Why say "10 years or so" when you could say 16? Why say around 13,500 for 2006 when you list the actual 2022 numbers?
Also, if this decline started in 2006, I think Western Illinois may have pre-existing issues. I am also not certain that Western Illinois is comparable to Marquette.
He's a simple man that thinks he can get away with simple ideas around people who love to call BS.
It's just who he is.
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He's a simple man that thinks he can get away with simple ideas around people who love to call BS.
It's just who he is.
He was referring to what the article said, not what I wrote.
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Do you need me to go through Jamie Dimon's history where is famously wrong on a lot of things?
Because that would be very easy. I'd probably miss a lot of his bad takes, but he's a clown.
Hold on Heisy is a clown? Or Dimon? Cause if its the latter, that is a WILD take.
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Hold on Heisy is a clown? Or Dimon? Cause if its the latter, that is a WILD take.
Hoke knows more than Jamie.
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$100k per year salary in san francisco is now considered LOW income. i don't know where they have to go to work however?? convention bookings are way down, hotels are closing and in some instances just walking away from their secured loans of over $700 million
companies that have moved out of san francisco-
nordstrom
whole foods
saks
office depot
AT&T-closing flagship store
westfield
anthropologie
old navy
amazon go
disney
abercrombie & fitch
crate & barrel
banana republic
gap
walgreens-closed 5 stores
tech companies vacating 2.4 million sq ft of office space
block, meta, salesforce, snap, lyft, slack, airbnb, paypal, autodesk, chime
another beautiful city going right down the proverbial toilet.
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San Francisco will be just fine. Anyway there is a huge reverse commute issue to Silicon Valley and other parts of the area.
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Yeah maebea once dey get da human dung off da sidewalks, hey?
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Hoke knows more than Jamie.
I didn't say that.
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San Francisco will be just fine. Anyway there is a huge reverse commute issue to Silicon Valley and other parts of the area.
no they won't-the out flow is still going on as we speak...it'll take years to turn that ship around. large conventions are going elsewhere. not until they have a fundamental change in ideology and leadership they can trust.
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no they won't-the out flow is still going on as we speak...it'll take years to turn that ship around. large conventions are going elsewhere. not until they have a fundamental change in ideology and leadership they can trust.
What are you proposing? Jailing the homeless? Cutting social services?
You really should listen to this:
https://twitter.com/MMBrussell/status/1673785438358601730?s=20
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Marquette probably won’t move to San Francisco
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San Francisco will be just fine. Anyway there is a huge reverse commute issue to Silicon Valley and other parts of the area.
??? There has been a tech recession and Market Street has gone from thriving to the Wild, Wild West. BART and MUNI are collapsing and the Billionaire Tax movement has created corporate migration to the South. With it goes investment, real estate, conventions, innovation and all other associated commerce. Real Estate transfer taxes, a big source of revenue, have a been falling with devaluation. It will be a steady, downward death spiral for a long time IMO.
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Seriously, San Fran looks pretty effed.
Although -- trying for a ray of sunshine here -- many said the same of NYC in the '70s.
But yes, like pbiflyer, I'd like to hear some proposed solutions. I sure as heck don't have any.
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Seriously, San Fran looks pretty effed.
Although -- trying for a ray of sunshine here -- many said the same of NYC in the '70s.
But yes, like pbiflyer, I'd like to hear some proposed solutions. I sure as heck don't have any.
IMO that's the big risk with single-industry towns. Detroit suffered when the auto industry got disrupted. SF is being disrupted now during the growth/tech sector disruption.
Cities come back, some faster than others. It's also what makes places like Chicago and NYC more resilient, having diversity of industry.
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San Francisco will be just fine. Anyway there is a huge reverse commute issue to Silicon Valley and other parts of the area.
"Detroit and StL will be just fine."
-Sultan in 1977 and 2008.
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"Detroit and StL will be just fine."
-Sultan in 1977 and 2008.
Said neither. But San Francisco will be just fine.
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"Detroit and StL will be just fine."
-Sultan in 1977 and 2008.
"New York City is dying"
- Everyone, 1970s
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"New York City is dying"
- Everyone, 1970s
For those Scoopers not yet born...
https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/new-york-photos-1970s-vergara/
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Cities come back, some faster than others. It's also what makes places like Chicago and NYC more resilient, having diversity of industry.
What industry?
Chicago:
Steel -- Gone -- moved overseas or to Gary/Northern Indiana, where costs were lower
Electronics -- Gone
Auto manufacturing -- Ford still runs its Chicago Assembly Plant on the South Side. GM components plant in Willowbrook, Gone. Chrysler plant in Belvidere -- on life support
Food Processing -- Brach has moved some of its work to Mexico. Some still exist.
Appliances -- Gone
Railroad Cars -- Gone
Slaughterhouses and Beef/Pork Processing -- Gone
Locomotives -- Electromotive, I believe, is gone.
Bicycles -- Gone
Printing -- If not gone, it will be soon.
Pharma -- Abbott still has a big presence in Waukegan/Lake Bluff but Searle and others are gone.
Chicago is a transportation hub and warehousing center. Ditto for New York. But manufacturing is going, going, gone.
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What industry?
Chicago:
Steel -- Gone -- moved overseas or to Gary/Northern Indiana, where costs were lower
Electronics -- Gone
Auto manufacturing -- Ford still runs its Chicago Assembly Plant on the South Side. GM components plant in Willowbrook, Gone. Chrysler plant in Belvidere -- on life support
Food Processing -- Brach has moved some of its work to Mexico. Some still exist.
Appliances -- Gone
Railroad Cars -- Gone
Slaughterhouses and Beef/Pork Processing -- Gone
Locomotives -- Electromotive, I believe, is gone.
Bicycles -- Gone
Printing -- If not gone, it will be soon.
Pharma -- Abbott still has a big presence in Waukegan/Lake Bluff but Searle and others are gone.
Chicago is a transportation hub and warehousing center. Ditto for New York. But manufacturing is going, going, gone.
Industry in the broader sense, a grouping of companies based on their business activities. Not the antiquated manufacturing sense.
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Seriously, San Fran looks pretty effed.
Although -- trying for a ray of sunshine here -- many said the same of NYC in the '70s.
But yes, like pbiflyer, I'd like to hear some proposed solutions. I sure as heck don't have any.
Nothing changes until you change leadership. Do you think anything will change in Chicago with their newly elected mayor? Keep voting the same knucklehead types and you get the same chitty results, aka garbage in, garbage out, aina?
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Industry in the broader sense, a grouping of companies based on their business activities. Not the antiquated manufacturing sense.
So like Boeing, Citadel, Caterpilar, Tyson Foods? All their high-paying corporate jobs are instantly transferable to the sunbelt.
I loved my time in Chicago, but I need to see a single quantitative trend that favors that city. I’m concerned about what it will look like in 10 years.
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So like Boeing, Citadel, Caterpilar, Tyson Foods? All their high-paying corporate jobs are instantly transferable to the sunbelt.
I loved my time in Chicago, but I need to see a single quantitative trend that favors that city. I’m concerned about what it will look like in 10 years.
Ask ye shall receive ....
March 1, 2023
Chicago broke its record for luring corporate relocations and expansions last year, according to a ranking from a relocation industry journal, making it the nation’s top metropolitan area for investment for the 10th year in a row despite some high-profile headquarters defections.
...
Major Chicago investments include California-based tech company Google’s agreement to buy and hire thousands of workers in the formerly state-owned James R. Thompson Center in the Loop business district, in an expansion from the company’s already large Midwest headquarters west of there in the Fulton Market district, and Michigan-based cereal giant Kellogg’s plans to spin off into three companies, the largest of which will be based in Chicago.
Other notable investments in the city include Virginia-based candy maker Mars’ ongoing construction of what will become its largest research and development hub on Goose Island, Canada-based BMO Financial’s move to anchor a new 52-story office tower near Union Station and Dutch cold storage logistics firm NewCold’s office expansion in the 40-story office tower at 500 W. Madison St.
Southwest of Chicago, Canadian electric truck and bus maker Lion Electric opened a large plant in Joliet, Illinois. West of Chicago, Ace Hardware signed a huge headquarters lease to anchor a redevelopment of the former McDonald’s headquarters in Oak Brook, Illinois, which the fast-food giant left behind when it moved to Chicago’s Fulton Market district in 2018.
https://www.costar.com/article/203048637/despite-headquarters-defections-chicago-keeps-title-as-top-spot-for-investment
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Ask ye shall receive ....
March 1, 2023
Chicago broke its record for luring corporate relocations and expansions last year, according to a ranking from a relocation industry journal, making it the nation’s top metropolitan area for investment for the 10th year in a row despite some high-profile headquarters defections.
...
Major Chicago investments include California-based tech company Google’s agreement to buy and hire thousands of workers in the formerly state-owned James R. Thompson Center in the Loop business district, in an expansion from the company’s already large Midwest headquarters west of there in the Fulton Market district, and Michigan-based cereal giant Kellogg’s plans to spin off into three companies, the largest of which will be based in Chicago.
Other notable investments in the city include Virginia-based candy maker Mars’ ongoing construction of what will become its largest research and development hub on Goose Island, Canada-based BMO Financial’s move to anchor a new 52-story office tower near Union Station and Dutch cold storage logistics firm NewCold’s office expansion in the 40-story office tower at 500 W. Madison St.
Southwest of Chicago, Canadian electric truck and bus maker Lion Electric opened a large plant in Joliet, Illinois. West of Chicago, Ace Hardware signed a huge headquarters lease to anchor a redevelopment of the former McDonald’s headquarters in Oak Brook, Illinois, which the fast-food giant left behind when it moved to Chicago’s Fulton Market district in 2018.
https://www.costar.com/article/203048637/despite-headquarters-defections-chicago-keeps-title-as-top-spot-for-investment
Love to see it. Poorly worded on my side… was referring to tax base and expenditures. But certainly this is related.
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Nothing changes until you change leadership. Do you think anything will change in Chicago with their newly elected mayor? Keep voting the same knucklehead types and you get the same chitty results, aka garbage in, garbage out, aina?
Yup, look at Mississippi
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Nothing changes until you change leadership. Do you think anything will change in Chicago with their newly elected mayor? Keep voting the same knucklehead types and you get the same chitty results, aka garbage in, garbage out, aina?
Yep, the reasons for the struggles in the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia have been the bad governors. There couldn't possibly be any other reasons or macro factors.
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Yep, the reasons for the struggles in the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia have been the bad governors. There couldn't possibly be any other reasons or macro factors.
Indiana as a state actually has been booming for some time. They attracted a Toyota plant near Vincennes, have wildly successful pharmaceutical plans and have a very pro-business climate. Gary/Lake County, Muncie and Seymour have been hurting but the state as a whole is prosperous. It's government is conservative and runs a surplus year in and year out.
Potential investors in property, plant and equipment don't look at the state, hold their nose and wonder how they are going to be soaked to pay off a $300 billion-plus pension shortfall.
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Indiana as a state actually has been booming for some time. They attracted a Toyota plant near Vincennes, have wildly successful pharmaceutical plans and have a very pro-business climate. Gary/Lake County, Muncie and Seymour have been hurting but the state as a whole is prosperous. It's government is conservative and runs a surplus year in and year out.
Potential investors in property, plant and equipment don't look at the state, hold their nose and wonder how they are going to be soaked to pay off a $300 billion-plus pension shortfall.
Can Marquette get potential students from there or is that not allowed? Indianapolis is a nice city to recruit from. Or is it doomed? I think cities are doomed? Seems like Indy is doing well?
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But yes, like pbiflyer, I'd like to hear some proposed solutions. I sure as heck don't have any.
I'll try, to get the debate refocused:
1) Solve the pension problem. Illinois and Chicago have a $300 billion public pension deficit. That's the actuarial shortfall of pension obligations of the State and Chicago compared to the amount of available assets to meet the obligation. Unless Chicago and Illinois invest in "the next great thing" with outlandish returns (think Amazon in the early 1990s), this actuarial cash flow shortage will become real. Everybody, beginning with the governor and legislature, wants to pretend this doesn't exist. It does and it isn't going away. The fear of any corporate location specialist or investor is that over a 30 to 40 year PPE life, Illinois will monetize the shortfall through higher personal and corporate taxes. Pension guarantees are in the state constitution, so this isn't easy. But something has to be done.
To his credit, Governor Pat Quinn tried to deal with this. He was taken out to the woodshed and politically beaten. Government is big business in Illinois and any effoert to curb it will be an uphill struggle.
2) Shift the Property Tax Burden. In most of suburban Chicago, as well as many neighborhoods in the city, the property tax burden on homeowners is oppressive. It's so bad it becomes a game. I for one challenged my property assessment every year for 12 years running. I never lost. Illinois needs to equalize educational spending (which is the major burden of the property tax), probably by increasing the income tax. But, in the process of increasing the income tax, property taxes need to be reduced, frozen and increases eventually capped. It's candidly obscene in Illinois to have North Shore schools with two full-time make-up artists while downstate schools struggle to provide basic education. There needs to be a state funding formula that's fair to everyone and reduces the property tax burden.
3) Get Rid of Governments. As the Chicago Bears have found out, every Illinois taxing body wants their hand in your back pocket. Illinois has more units of government than any other state in the union. Why, for example, do we need townships in urban counties? In my little former suburb of 21,000 persons, we had five school districts touch it. By contrast, most southern cities have one per county. Special districts in Illinois run rampant. They are everywhere. Get rid of them and get rid of the administrative costs.
4) Demand More. The biggest single problem in suffering neighborhoods of Chicago is people's willingness to put up with crapola. Parents of students should demand better! They're paying for it. Same for police. It's nice to sit and cry about gunfire, murders and assaults on the NBC 5 News with the Lovely Natalie up to her ankles in blood. It's another thing to rise up and do something about it. I see a lot of the former. Not a lot of the latter. When my children were being shafted by the local schools, my wife and I were over there in our best war paint. The teachers and the administrators openly admitted they were afraid of us. Not because we were armed or belligerent, but because we challenged them, knew the law and would not accept "no" for an answer. They didn't like someone, in a formal meeting where minutes were being kept, calling them out because they didn't do their job. There's no reason the locals in Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis can't do the same. And, if people won't listen, there's always the ACLU.
This is just a start and designed to encourage a good conversation!
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Indiana as a state actually has been booming for some time. They attracted a Toyota plant near Vincennes, have wildly successful pharmaceutical plans and have a very pro-business climate. Gary/Lake County, Muncie and Seymour have been hurting but the state as a whole is prosperous. It's government is conservative and runs a surplus year in and year out.
Potential investors in property, plant and equipment don't look at the state, hold their nose and wonder how they are going to be soaked to pay off a $300 billion-plus pension shortfall.
Indiana receives $1.37 in federal funding for every tax dollar paid, which makes up 33% of state revenues. Sounds like socialism to me.
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dgies,
Thanks for the good conversation starter. You make some excellent points. But I do have to quibble with a few (because, of course I do).
1. I agree that the pension shortfall is a significant issue but it's a) not unique to Illinois, b) not as dire as often portrayed (no, the state's not going bankrupt) and c) not impacting corporate relocations as you suggest and c)
In fact, as I posted earlier, Chicago for 10 straight years has led the nation in corporate relocations and expansions, despite these very well publicized issues.
As for Pat Quinn ... he proposed a pension fix that he knew would fail - because it was clearly unconstitutional - to make it appear as if he tried something and then could wash his hands of it. Proposing legislation that's sure to fail doesn't deserve credit. It was a profile in political cowardice. All Quinn did was kick the can down the road.
Though, I admit, he did less damage than Bruce Rauner, whose sole solution was to sit on the state budget for two years - far deepening the crisis while creating new ones - in a doomed-from-the-start attempt to bust the unions.
2. Agree.
3. Agree 99%. Illinois has way too many local governments, though in reality it's a bigger issue downstate with single-school districts and the like, than it is with urban townships. Where you're wrong is with the Bears. What's happening there is very much about the team trying to use its leverage to screw over the school districts and other local governments. That they want the property's assessment frozen at its current level (pre-$5 billion redevelopment) for the next 40 years - 40 years! - is madness and the school districts and municipalities would be doing their existing taxpayers a huge disservice to not to push back against that. The need for government services to that property is going to rise exponentially, but the Bears are arguing they should pay no more for those (via property taxes) than they would for a vacant piece of land.
4. This is all sounds well and good, but in the real world it's easier said than done. And, frankly, pretty misleading. Their are literally thousands of Chicagoans involved in anti-violence initiatives across the city. Your implication that they sit back and take it is plainly wrong.
But beyond that, saying they should "rise up and do something about it" is a fine platitude, but what does that mean. What are some actionable steps you suggest?
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dgies,
Thanks for the good conversation starter. You make some excellent points. But I do have to quibble with a few (because, of course I do).
1. I agree that the pension shortfall is a significant issue but it's a) not unique to Illinois, b) not as dire as often portrayed (no, the state's not going bankrupt) and c) not impacting corporate relocations as you suggest and c)
In fact, as I posted earlier, Chicago for 10 straight years has led the nation in corporate relocations and expansions, despite these very well publicized issues.
As for Pat Quinn ... he proposed a pension fix that he knew would fail - because it was clearly unconstitutional - to make it appear as if he tried something and then could wash his hands of it. Proposing legislation that's sure to fail doesn't deserve credit. It was a profile in political cowardice. All Quinn did was kick the can down the road.
Though, I admit, he did less damage than Bruce Rauner, whose sole solution was to sit on the state budget for two years - far deepening the crisis while creating new ones - in a doomed-from-the-start attempt to bust the unions.
2. Agree.
3. Agree 99%. Illinois has way too many local governments, though in reality it's a bigger issue downstate with single-school districts and the like, than it is with urban townships. Where you're wrong is with the Bears. What's happening there is very much about the team trying to use its leverage to screw over the school districts and other local governments. That they want the property's assessment frozen at its current level (pre-$5 billion redevelopment) for the next 40 years - 40 years! - is madness and the school districts and municipalities would be doing their existing taxpayers a huge disservice to not to push back against that. The need for government services to that property is going to rise exponentially, but the Bears are arguing they should pay no more for those (via property taxes) than they would for a vacant piece of land.
4. This is all sounds well and good, but in the real world it's easier said than done. And, frankly, pretty misleading. Their are literally thousands of Chicagoans involved in anti-violence initiatives across the city. Your implication that they sit back and take it is plainly wrong.
But beyond that, saying they should "rise up and do something about it" is a fine platitude, but what does that mean. What are some actionable steps you suggest?
Thank you Brother Pakuni.
A couple of thoughts in response:
1) You are right, it's not unique to Illinois. But states with the same problem are facing problems with investment. I'm curious as to how you think the matter will be resolved. Do you expect the federal government to bail Illinois and like states out? Possible but you get to states without the problem and this will be a mess.
2) This is idealistic and I admittedly am a Republican, but it needs to happen to ensure equality of opportunity.
3) As to the Bears, both sides are leveraging their position. Having fought tax assessments and valuations for 12 years, I tend to side with the Bears because of personal experience, but I appreciate your position.
4) About 70 years ago, the same thing was said about segregation in this country. Then a true leader in Doctor King stepped up and the country took heed of the inequality and anti-American nature of segregation. We changed. What it means is that there needs to be a grass-roots commitment to change. Demand more from your schools, just like Chicago did in the 1960s when they demanded the end to Willis Wagons and neighborhood apartheid. Stand up and if nothing else do what Curtis Silwa and the Guardian Angels did in New York, walk the streets and protect the innocent. Demand that people who are illegally in possession of a weapon be sent to prison. Expect your children to be home at night. Period.
That's a start. It begins in the neighborhoods and works out. Not vice versa.
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Indiana as a state actually has been booming for some time.
Indiana's population growth has all but stalled -- up 0.29% in 2022, up 0.36% in 2021, etc. And apparently that's all that matters in determining that Marquette is doomed.
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https://www.wpr.org/tourism-counties-rural-wisconsin-population-growth-migration
An excellent article
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Indiana receives $1.37 in federal funding for every tax dollar paid, which makes up 33% of state revenues. Sounds like socialism to me.
Source?
Here's what I found:
https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal-government/ (https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal-government/)
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https://www.wpr.org/tourism-counties-rural-wisconsin-population-growth-migration
An excellent article
My parents did exactly what the article suggests -- migrated from Chicago to Douglas County in 1991.
That said, the article is misleading. When you start from a very low base, which most of those counties do, a small gain begets a large percentage gain. The ability to sustain that over the next decade is key.
The big problem in some of those counties is access to geriatric medical care. That became a real issue for my Dad as he hit his late 70s. Fortunately Superior and Duluth were not far away but in time, he had to move to Duluth from rural Douglas County because of distance. Hayward, Bayfield and Minocqua are even worse.
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Source?
Here's what I found:
https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal-government/ (https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal-government/)
I am way too lazy to dig into what goes in to "Dependency Score". Strikes me as odd, though, that Rhode Island is ranked 20th despite only getting 77 cents on the dollar back (i.e., they are a giver, not a taker).
Other than that, I bet the correlation is extremely high with states that are "rural"...which is also a pretty good proxy for states that vote red.
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I am way too lazy to dig into what goes in to "Dependency Score". Strikes me as odd, though, that Rhode Island is ranked 20th despite only getting 77 cents on the dollar back (i.e., they are a giver, not a taker).
Other than that, I bet the correlation is extremely high with states that are "rural"...which is also a pretty good proxy for states that vote red.
This whole thing is sort of nonsense. Here's why:
1) The government has to do certain things. Defense is one -- and most of the bases to defend our country are along the coast. The Air Force has bases in places that have all weather flying conditions, like New Mexico and Arizona. Ft. Campbell, Ft. Benning, Ft. Hood and other places have been there forever.
2) Highways -- States like Illinois, Texas, California, Florida, Michigan have thousands and thousands of miles of federal highways. They're essential to move the nation. Yeah, Illinois get more highway miles than say Rhode Island, but do you really want to leave maintenance funding of Illinois highways to the Illinois legislature? I hope not.
3) Regulation -- Regulatory offices are in large cities. The SEC is in NYC and Washington. They're also where there is need. Do we want oilfield regulators in Minnesota? I hope not!
4) Boonedoogles -- Can we say S-o-l-y-n-d-r-a ? Those go in politically well-connected states.
If Illinois gets 64 cents backs on each dollar of federal spending, it's probably because the state has only major military bases -- Scott Air Force Base near St. Louis and Great Lakes Naval Training Center. Both probably should be closed and moved to a coastal community. Military component expenditures probably followed the state's manufacturing to other states.
Gang, one of the many reasons why Amtrak is a complete and total clusterf**k is that its routes were designed to pass through as many Congressional districts as possible and that led to some weird routings and trains that simply shouldn't exist, like most of the long distance network.
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Sometimes you make sense, dgies, and other times you make posts like this that have no basis in fact and then gratuitously throw in a nonsense point like Solyndra. It's a Friday leading into a long holiday weekend so I'll chalk it up to day drinking.
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Good story about how incredibly difficult it is to convert office buildings to housing units (rentals or condos). Easy to say this is the solution, incredibly hard to make it happen.
July 4, 2023
American Cities Have a Conversion Problem, and It’s Not Just Offices
Piles of regulations, or “kludge,” and a culture of “no” are limiting the ability to turn building blocks into something new.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html
The cumulative effect today, if you want to turn an office into an apartment, or even turn your back porch into an enclosed home office? The building code says no. Or the zoning does. Or the neighbors do. Or a phrase in a decades-old state law does. Or the politicians asked to change that phrase decline to.
“What a mess we’ve created for ourselves,” said Emily Talen, a professor of urbanism at the University of Chicago who has studied zoning, or “the mother lode of city rules.”
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Good story about how incredibly difficult it is to convert office buildings to housing units (rentals or condos). Easy to say this is the solution, incredibly hard to make it happen.
July 4, 2023
American Cities Have a Conversion Problem, and It’s Not Just Offices
Piles of regulations, or “kludge,” and a culture of “no” are limiting the ability to turn building blocks into something new.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html
The cumulative effect today, if you want to turn an office into an apartment, or even turn your back porch into an enclosed home office? The building code says no. Or the zoning does. Or the neighbors do. Or a phrase in a decades-old state law does. Or the politicians asked to change that phrase decline to.
“What a mess we’ve created for ourselves,” said Emily Talen, a professor of urbanism at the University of Chicago who has studied zoning, or “the mother lode of city rules.”
So change the code. It isn't written in stone.
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So change the code. It isn't written in stone.
I guess you’ve never tried this … it is almost impossible. Too many vested interested that use the code to their advantage.
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So change the code. It isn't written in stone.
No, but the deals the politicians have with the trade unions might as well be.
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I guess you’ve never tried this … it is almost impossible. Too many vested interested that use the code to their advantage.
Capital will be behind rapid changes to code if that's what they need to not lose their shirt on their RE investments.
Per WCs point, the trade unions will see dollar signs with all the conversion work.
My bet is that code changes will happen quickly if they are actually a blocker. Who says no?
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So change the code. It isn't written in stone.
Dude, you live in Madison, the land of the NIMBYs. Changing codes and zoning is damn near impossible, especially with all of the "stakeholders".
(Geu, hur, boomers, gur, hur.)
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Dude, you live in Madison, the land of the NIMBYs. Changing codes and zoning is damn near impossible, especially with all of the "stakeholders".
Not to mention that that every structure more than 20 years old is always deemed to have some grand historic importance that makes it too much of a landmark to be replaced.
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Capital will be behind rapid changes to code if that's what they need to not lose their shirt on their RE investments.
Per WCs point, the trade unions will see dollar signs with all the conversion work.
My bet is that code changes will happen quickly if they are actually a blocker. Who says no?
Beat me to it. If there is money to be made, and there is a problem that needs to be addressed, the code will be changed.
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Dude, you live in Madison, the land of the NIMBYs. Changing codes and zoning is damn near impossible, especially with all of the "stakeholders".
(Geu, hur, boomers, gur, hur.)
I know, and they're trying to fix it, and there are plenty of people trying to change the codes and zoning laws.
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Not to mention that that every structure more than 20 years old is always deemed to have some grand historic importance that makes it too much of a landmark to be replaced.
I have a friend who doesn't live on Willy St in Madison crowing about how they're knocking down the 'Historical Neighborhood' to put up a four story 'high rise'.
I really offended her when I said that most of the old places on Willy Street were ugly, run down, and nothing special historically.
The developer bought the land got permits and THEN the people started complaining. The building went up all the same, just as it should have.
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Perhaps the death of the Chicago region has been greatly exaggerated.
Among Site Selection magazine's top counties for current economic development projects are:
2nd = Cook (tie with Harris Co., Texas)
9th = DuPage
14th = Kane (tie with Cuyahoga Co., Ohio)
16th = Will (tie with Hamilton Co., Ohio)
RIP, Lake and McHenry.
https://siteselection.com/issues/2023/july/heroes-of-the-heartland-cover.cfm
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Beat me to it. If there is money to be made, and there is a problem that needs to be addressed, the code will be changed.
So, office conversion mean money will be made.
So those that worry about environmental impact, health considerations, gentrification of neighborhoods, reduction in market value from excess supply, congestion, changing demographics, and all other like issues will be summarily stream rolled for that profit.
Keep talking like this and you'll be invited to get interviewed on Fox News.
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So, office conversion mean money will be made.
So those that worry about environmental impact, health considerations, gentrification of neighborhoods, reduction in market value from excess supply, congestion, changing demographics, and all other like issues will be summarily stream rolled for that profit.
Keep talking like this and you'll be invited to get interviewed on Fox News.
LOL. Brother, they always have been, what makes you think we would magically swap away from Capitalism to a system with actual planning, efficiency, and equality?
Society can achieve all of those 'problems' but chooses not to. Why do you suppose that is? Greed. It's a sin to you Catholics, but often ignored.
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LOL. Brother, they always have been, what makes you think we would magically swap away from Capitalism to a system with actual planning, efficiency, and equality?
Society can achieve all of those 'problems' but chooses not to. Why do you suppose that is? Greed. It's a sin to you Catholics, but often ignored.
Greed as a sin to Catholics?????? Is that in the Bible? I’ve heard we have to live our lives and be governed by the word of the Bible?
I don’t believe that greed is ever mentioned in the Bible
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Matthew 19:24. It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.
#Jesuswaswoke
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Matthew 19:24. It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.
#Jesuswaswoke
Jesus needs to get a job, imo. Been told fast food places need bodies. Flip those burgers, hippie
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Best customer service employee ever. Always loving his neighbor as himself.
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Best customer service employee ever. Always loving his neighbor as himself.
I ordered water from the guy and walked out with a buzz!
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Jesus needs to get a job, imo. Been told fast food places need bodies. Flip those burgers, hippie
He fed 5,000 people with five loaves and two fishes. For free.
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He fed 5,000 people with five loaves and two fishes. For free.
Yeah, that’s no bueno. Handouts are never free.
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Yeah, that’s no bueno. Handouts are never free.
If Jesus walked into an Evangelical Christian today gathering he'd be crucified for his beliefs.
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He fed 5,000 people with five loaves and two fishes. For free.
I know a guy that runs a fast food restaurant. He got crushed that day. Laid off all his employees. #ThanksJesus
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If Jesus walked into an Evangelical Christian today gathering he'd be crucified for his beliefs.
All that for a guy who rarely had a cross word for anyone until the very end.
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You guys are thinking of New Testament Jesus.
New New Testament Jesus is anti-immigrant, pro-gun, anti-socialism, pro-capitalist, anti-poor, anti-conservation.
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You guys are thinking of New Testament Jesus.
New New Testament Jesus is anti-immigrant, pro-gun, anti-socialism, pro-capitalist, anti-poor, anti-conservation.
That’s the good Jesus
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ2L-R8NgrA
Never actually realized that GOP Jesus looks so much like Ted Cruz…
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ2L-R8NgrA
Never actually realized that GOP Jesus looks so much like Ted Cruz…
Naah, GOP Jesus looks like Donald Trump without the weight. Otherwise, he'd be too heavy to hang on a cross.
Only problem is the real Jesus would never be caught dead with red hair and a comb-over!
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Interesting bit on climate change and how it is having an unexpected impact in large cities.
Underground Climate Change Is Weakening Buildings in Slow Motion
Hotspots beneath cities deform the ground, causing important infrastructure to crack under stress
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/underground-climate-change-is-weakening-buildings-in-slow-motion1/
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Here's a chart from a University of Toronto study about how North American cities' downtowns have (or haven't) recovered from the pandemic:
https://downtownrecovery.com/charts/rankings
There are many expected results: San Francisco ranked dead last of 63 downtowns, with only 32% of its pre-pandemic activity having returned. Portland, Seattle and Minneapolis also sit at well under 50%, while Salt Lake City actually has significantly more DT activity now than before the pandemic
But I was a little surprised by a few of the findings, such as:
++ Two California cities -- Bakersfield and Fresno -- also have significantly more activity in their downtowns than before the pandemic. San Diego, Sacramento and San Jose also are faring much better than the North American norm.
++ Only 1 Texas downtown (El Paso) has recovered even as much as 70% of its pre-pandemic activity.
++ Raleigh, which has been considered a fast-growing city, has had a worse downtown recovery than Chicago, Seattle, Philadelphia and Oakland.
++ Baltimore (87%) and Milwaukee (78%) are well ahead of the likes of Phoenix, San Antonio, Fort Worth and Denver.
++ By and large, Canada's major downtowns are also struggling.
I make no conclusions, and I have no idea if the methodology is good or bad because I'm no expert in this field. Just found it pretty interesting.
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Here's a chart from a University of Toronto study about how North American cities' downtowns have (or haven't) recovered from the pandemic:
https://downtownrecovery.com/charts/rankings
There are many expected results: San Francisco ranked dead last of 63 downtowns, with only 32% of its pre-pandemic activity having returned. Portland, Seattle and Minneapolis also sit at well under 50%, while Salt Lake City actually has significantly more DT activity now than before the pandemic
But I was a little surprised by a few of the findings, such as:
++ Two California cities -- Bakersfield and Fresno -- also have significantly more activity in their downtowns than before the pandemic. San Diego, Sacramento and San Jose also are faring much better than the North American norm.
++ Only 1 Texas downtown (El Paso) has recovered even as much as 70% of its pre-pandemic activity.
++ Raleigh, which has been considered a fast-growing city, has had a worse downtown recovery than Chicago, Seattle, Philadelphia and Oakland.
++ Baltimore (87%) and Milwaukee (78%) are well ahead of the likes of Phoenix, San Antonio, Fort Worth and Denver.
++ By and large, Canada's major downtowns are also struggling.
I make no conclusions, and I have no idea if the methodology is good or bad because I'm no expert in this field. Just found it pretty interesting.
"Downtown" is defined as the highest employment area at a zip-code level. Interesting data to keep an eye on.
For Chicago that's the loop. Chicago needs that commercial tax base to remain in tact, otherwise it's going to put significant pressure on the taxes generated from commercial/residential outside of the sky scraper district.
Here's the outline from a link on their Methodology page.
(https://i.imgur.com/uyq0HzZ.png)
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Thanks, Ska. Agree that the Loop is vital to the city's recovery.
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Magnificent Mile / Rush Street is not in Chicago's downtown? Not part of "highest employment area?"
Surprising to me.
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Magnificent Mile / Rush Street is not in Chicago's downtown? Not part of "highest employment area?"
Surprising to me.
Mag Mile is an outdoor mall, and Rush is the viagra triangle so mostly old restaurants catering to an older crowd. Neither are really neighborhoods. The neighborrhods are Streeterville on the East and River North on the West.
Northwestern Medical employs a lot of people in Streeterville, farther West in River North there are a lot of companies in the Merch Mart and surrounding areas, but nowhere close to the number of companies housed in the loop. Streeterville and River North have a ton of residential compared to the Loop. Same with the South Loop and West Loop, tons of residential towers.
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All these years I thought Bob Newhart worked in downtown Chicago. Oh well, you learn something new every day.
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Housing market shortage is so acute and the office glut is so big that Boston will offer 75% tax breaks on office-to-residential conversions
BYALENA BOTROS
July 13, 2023 at 1:15 PM EDT
https://fortune.com/2023/07/13/boston-housing-market-shortage-commerical-real-office-glut-pilot-program/
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Housing market shortage is so acute and the office glut is so big that Boston will offer 75% tax breaks on office-to-residential conversions
BYALENA BOTROS
July 13, 2023 at 1:15 PM EDT
https://fortune.com/2023/07/13/boston-housing-market-shortage-commerical-real-office-glut-pilot-program/
Where one sees doom, one sees opportunity. Interesting dichotomy
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I think it really depends on the city. Some of the buildings in Midtown Manhattan that are empty could make sense as residences, especially if they are pied a terre type apartments. But I'd HATE to live in a converted building in the Loop that is a ghost town on the weekend or after 6 PM. So cities that have blended areas like River North make sense, but more business centric districts don't.
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I think it really depends on the city. Some of the buildings in Midtown Manhattan that are empty could make sense as residences, especially if they are pied a terre type apartments. But I'd HATE to live in a converted building in the Loop that is a ghost town on the weekend or after 6 PM. So cities that have blended areas like River North make sense, but more business centric districts don't.
If more people lived in the Loop, it wouldn't be a ghost town anymore. And you can walk or take a quick Uber to plenty of entertainment choices from the Loop.
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If more people lived in the Loop, it wouldn't be a ghost town anymore. And you can walk or take a quick Uber to plenty of entertainment choices from the Loop, including the Theater District, which is actually within the Loop.
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Where one sees doom, one sees opportunity. Interesting dichotomy
You investing?
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Housing market shortage is so acute and the office glut is so big that Boston will offer 75% tax breaks on office-to-residential conversions
BYALENA BOTROS
July 13, 2023 at 1:15 PM EDT
https://fortune.com/2023/07/13/boston-housing-market-shortage-commerical-real-office-glut-pilot-program/
Conversion might be the hardest thing to do in all of Real Estate. And, if successfully done, they are high-end condos/apartments, not "affordable" housing, and are many years away from completion (like 3 to 5 years).
So, a good idea in theory but hard to execute in practice.
Finally, what problem are conversions solving? The housing shortage problem or the office glut problem? If the housing shortage, they don't get at the affordability problem. If they are solving the office glut problem, converting a desolate downtown to a residential does not automatically mean people want to move in. It is sterile and lacks any character of a real neighborhood.
Conversions might work if the driving reason is to reduce the commute to the office. But the reason for conversions is offices are empty because of remote work—a circular problem.
Simply offering a tax break is nice. But as this story says, Boston will take applications for a year. So, developers have one year to ask for the tax break and then start. So, realistically, these are near 2028 to 2030 completions if any of them get done. This alone tells you Boston developers will not be running down to city hall to get this tax break as they are daunting, difficult problems, and everyone involved in real estate knows it.
A New York Property Developer Explains Why Converting Offices to Apartments Is So Complex
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-06/why-converting-new-york-city-offices-to-apartments-is-so-complex?sref=SgYAAa0L
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This week's cover story
(https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/ba2/519/23cf209fff80e4faa51ad4290b919068f5-1523Cov4x5-OFFICE-SPACE-PKG.w710.jpg)
https://nymag.com/press/2023/07/the-panic-and-pivot-of-manhattans-office-megalandlords.html
The July 17–30 cover package for New York Magazine, with an anchor story by features writer Andrew Rice, examines the impending crisis resulting from historically high post-pandemic office vacancy rates in New York City, the impact it may have on the economy and the city at large, and how landlords and government officials are trying to solve the problem. In a fascinating deep dive, RXR CEO Scott Rechler candidly opens his books for Rice, going through his portfolio and dishing on which buildings can be saved — and what made one building so worthless that it had to be given back to the bank.
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Conversion might be the hardest thing to do in all of Real Estate. And, if successfully done, they are high-end condos/apartments, not "affordable" housing, and are many years away from completion (like 3 to 5 years).
So, a good idea in theory but hard to execute in practice.
Finally, what problem are conversions solving? The housing shortage problem or the office glut problem? If the housing shortage, they don't get at the affordability problem. If they are solving the office glut problem, converting a desolate downtown to a residential does not automatically mean people want to move in. It is sterile and lacks any character of a real neighborhood.
Conversions might work if the driving reason is to reduce the commute to the office. But the reason for conversions is offices are empty because of remote work—a circular problem.
Simply offering a tax break is nice. But as this story says, Boston will take applications for a year. So, developers have one year to ask for the tax break and then start. So, realistically, these are near 2028 to 2030 completions if any of them get done. This alone tells you Boston developers will not be running down to city hall to get this tax break as they are daunting, difficult problems, and everyone involved in real estate knows it.
A New York Property Developer Explains Why Converting Offices to Apartments Is So Complex
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-06/why-converting-new-york-city-offices-to-apartments-is-so-complex?sref=SgYAAa0L
You're once again ignoring the very simple rule of supply and demand.
Adding to the supply of housing with drive down demand... which in turn puts downward pressure on prices.
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You investing?
Sure am but my investments are very diverse. That’s why I live in a gated community
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You're once again ignoring the very simple rule of supply and demand.
Adding to the supply of housing with drive down demand... which in turn puts downward pressure on prices.
So, city housing is doomed.
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So, city housing is doomed.
Put it on the list! (Or was it already on it? I lose track.)
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So, city housing is doomed.
Quite the opposite.
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Sure am but my investments are very diverse. That’s why I live in a gated community
Ewe live at da Graybar Hotel, hey?
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Ewe live at da Graybar Hotel, hey?
No, the ‘Quon
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Quite the opposite.
Depends on the city. SF is doomed
Portland , one of my favorite cities , a foodie paradise, is forever changed. Don’t see either coming back soon
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Depends on the city. SF is doomed
Portland , one of my favorite cities , a foodie paradise, is forever changed. Don’t see either coming back soon
Portland is fine besides central downtown, which wasn’t as much the foodie area anyway. Overpriced chains there. East side is thriving
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-27/us-office-space-is-on-track-to-shrink-for-first-time-on-record
Office buildings are poised to set records for a bad reason this year: The amount of office space in the US is declining for what is likely the first time in history.
A lack of new construction and a plethora of aging office space being repurposed or destroyed will lower the amount of office space, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. Less than 5 million square feet (465,000 square meters) of new offices broke ground in the US so far this year, while 14.7 million square feet has been removed, often to be converted into buildings for other uses.
That would mark the first net decline in data going back to 2000, JLL reported, adding that it’s most likely the first ever.
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What is the old saying? A conservative is a former progressive who has been mugged.
It sounds like Portland has been mugged too much.
July 29, 2023
Fighting for Anthony: The Struggle to Save Portland, Oregon
The city has long grappled with street homelessness and a shortage of housing. Now fentanyl has turned a perennial problem into a deadly crisis and a challenge to the city’s progressive identity.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/us/portland-oregon-fentanyl-homeless.html
This city of 635,000, home to the world’s largest bookstore and majestic views of snowcapped Mount Hood, has long grappled with homelessness. But during the pandemic this perennial problem turned into an especially desperate and sometimes deadly crisis that is dividing Portland over how to fix it.
While other cities in the West, like San Diego and Phoenix, face similar issues, the suffering on Portland’s streets has dealt a singular challenge to the city’s identity as a liberal bastion that prides itself on embracing transplants from across the country.
In 2022, Portland experienced a spate of homicides and other violence involving homeless victims that rattled many in the community: a 42-year-old homeless woman shot in the face by two teenagers who were hunting rats with a pellet gun; a 26-year-old homeless woman stabbed in the chest outside her tent; another homeless woman, 31, fatally shot at close range by a stranger.
The search for answers points in many directions — to city and county officials who allowed tents on the streets because the government had little to offer in the way of housing, to Oregon voters who backed decriminalizing hard drugs and to the unrest that rocked Portland in 2020 and left raw scars.
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In November 2020, amid the national reckoning over policing and criminal justice, Oregon voters by a wide margin approved a ballot measure that lowered the penalties for possessing small amounts of drugs like meth and opioids.
While an increasing number of states no longer criminally charge people for using marijuana, Oregon took the bold step of decriminalizing the possession of “hard drugs.”
When the police in Oregon see someone using these drugs, they can hand out a $100 ticket and a card listing a hotline for addiction treatment.
Known as Measure 110, the law was meant to focus the government’s efforts on treating addiction, not on arresting users.
At the same time, it allocated millions of dollars in additional funding for addiction services across Oregon. But the new money was slow to roll out.
Sergeant Cioeta, who oversees a bike squad that patrols downtown Portland, believes Measure 110 is fueling more drug use by sending the false message that “all drugs are legal.”
In 2020, the year voters approved the measure, 69 people in Multnomah County fatally overdosed from synthetic opioids, mainly fentanyl, according to the county health department.
Last year, such overdoses killed 209 people in the county, and the drug is smoked openly on Portland’s downtown streets.
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What is the old saying? A conservative is a former progressive who has been mugged.
It sounds like Portland has been mugged too much.
July 29, 2023
Fighting for Anthony: The Struggle to Save Portland, Oregon
The city has long grappled with street homelessness and a shortage of housing. Now fentanyl has turned a perennial problem into a deadly crisis and a challenge to the city’s progressive identity.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/us/portland-oregon-fentanyl-homeless.html
This city of 635,000, home to the world’s largest bookstore and majestic views of snowcapped Mount Hood, has long grappled with homelessness. But during the pandemic this perennial problem turned into an especially desperate and sometimes deadly crisis that is dividing Portland over how to fix it.
While other cities in the West, like San Diego and Phoenix, face similar issues, the suffering on Portland’s streets has dealt a singular challenge to the city’s identity as a liberal bastion that prides itself on embracing transplants from across the country.
In 2022, Portland experienced a spate of homicides and other violence involving homeless victims that rattled many in the community: a 42-year-old homeless woman shot in the face by two teenagers who were hunting rats with a pellet gun; a 26-year-old homeless woman stabbed in the chest outside her tent; another homeless woman, 31, fatally shot at close range by a stranger.
The search for answers points in many directions — to city and county officials who allowed tents on the streets because the government had little to offer in the way of housing, to Oregon voters who backed decriminalizing hard drugs and to the unrest that rocked Portland in 2020 and left raw scars.
----
In November 2020, amid the national reckoning over policing and criminal justice, Oregon voters by a wide margin approved a ballot measure that lowered the penalties for possessing small amounts of drugs like meth and opioids.
While an increasing number of states no longer criminally charge people for using marijuana, Oregon took the bold step of decriminalizing the possession of “hard drugs.”
When the police in Oregon see someone using these drugs, they can hand out a $100 ticket and a card listing a hotline for addiction treatment.
Known as Measure 110, the law was meant to focus the government’s efforts on treating addiction, not on arresting users.
At the same time, it allocated millions of dollars in additional funding for addiction services across Oregon. But the new money was slow to roll out.
Sergeant Cioeta, who oversees a bike squad that patrols downtown Portland, believes Measure 110 is fueling more drug use by sending the false message that “all drugs are legal.”
In 2020, the year voters approved the measure, 69 people in Multnomah County fatally overdosed from synthetic opioids, mainly fentanyl, according to the county health department.
Last year, such overdoses killed 209 people in the county, and the drug is smoked openly on Portland’s downtown streets.
I work downtown in that exact area 3-4 days a week. There’s a lot of drugs around (this is a US major city problem), along with a lot of homeless people who are suffering, but the idea that it is a lawless no go zone is preposterous. The national media has been fear mongering the city for quite awhile so it’s nothing new. But don’t take my word for it, take it from the source that you so often decry as unreliable just because this times it fits your narrative of a place you don’t practically experience. As I said before, there is a portion of downtown that needs help and investment, But the city’s neighborhoods are thriving.
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I work downtown in that exact area 3-4 days a week. There’s a lot of drugs around (this is a US major city problem), along with a lot of homeless people who are suffering, but the idea that it is a lawless no go zone is preposterous. The national media has been fear mongering the city for quite awhile so it’s nothing new. But don’t take my word for it, take it from the source that you so often decry as unreliable just because this times it fits your narrative of a place you don’t practically experience. As I said before, there is a portion of downtown that needs help and investment, But the city’s neighborhoods are thriving.
What’s the matter with Portland? Shootings, theft and other crime test city’s progressive strain
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-02-10/whats-the-matter-with-portland-urban-ills-tests-citys-progressive-strain
Long hailed as a model of conscientious urban planning and civic engagement, Portland is facing a crisis of confidence. Nearly three years after pandemic lockdowns emptied out the city’s core and protests against police brutality turned a few downtown blocks into a battleground, this city of about 641,000 is dealing with skyrocketing numbers of homeless people, soaring crime and strikingly high levels of public dissatisfaction with what the city is doing about it.
Over the last three years, the number of unhoused people in the metro area has jumped from about 4,000 to at least 6,600. Shootings in the city have tripled. Homicides climbed from 36 in 2019 to 97 last year — a record. Lower-level crimes have spiked too: More than 11,000 vehicles were stolen in 2022, up from 6,500 in 2019.
“You don’t have to watch Fox News to look around Portland and say, ‘This is not cool,’” said City Commissioner Mingus Mapps, a Democrat and former political science professor at Brandeis University.
———
respond.
“‘Progressive’ means something different now than when it did when I was growing up,” the longtime Democrat said. “Now, when I think of progressive, I think of extremism.”
Portland still has many of its charms: towering firs and giant sequoias, efficient light rail and bike lanes, microbreweries and craft markets, and views of snow-capped Mt. Hood.
But downtown, some buildings remain boarded up.
The unhoused roll shopping carts of stuffed trash bags down empty streets as construction crews erect a glossy 35-story Ritz-Carlton, the city’s first five-star hotel. A recent study showed Portland ranks about average compared with 40 other cities when it comes to homicide, assault and robbery rates. But the surge in crime has resulted in an identity crisis.
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Your second article more or less agrees with my rebuttal to you. But it’s not worth arguing with you. It’s like engaging with the old yahoo comment section
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From the WSJ's "The Number":
79,535
The number of people Miami-Dade County lost through net migration to other parts of Florida or other states between 2020 and 2022, the Brookings Institution said. The 2019-2022 population decline was the region’s first such loss over a multiyear period since at least 1970, according to the St. Louis Fed. Surging housing costs and a fickle labor market are sending many people packing.
From this it would appear that major southern metro areas aren't immune from the problems that most cities face.
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How many of those were COVID deaths?
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From the WSJ's "The Number":
79,535
The number of people Miami-Dade County lost through net migration to other parts of Florida or other states between 2020 and 2022, the Brookings Institution said. The 2019-2022 population decline was the region’s first such loss over a multiyear period since at least 1970, according to the St. Louis Fed. Surging housing costs and a fickle labor market are sending many people packing.
From this it would appear that major southern metro areas aren't immune from the problems that most cities face.
And so the great migration north to escape the extreme weather begins. As it was written.
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Trouble in paradise?
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/leprosy-may-be-endemic-florida-cdc-rcna97567
Cases of leprosy have increased in Florida and the southeastern United States over the last decade, according to a new report.
Leprosy, officially called Hansen’s disease, is a rare type of bacterial infection that attacks the nerves and can cause swelling under the skin. The new research paper, published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, found that reported cases doubled in the Southeast over the last 10 years.
Central Florida in particular has seen a disproportionate share of cases, which indicates it might be an endemic location for the disease, meaning leprosy has a consistent presence in the region's population rather than popping up in the form of one-off outbreaks.
"According to the National Hansen’s Disease Program, 159 new cases were reported in the United States in 2020; Florida was among the top reporting states," the report said. "Central Florida, in particular, accounted for 81% of cases reported in Florida and almost one fifth of nationally reported cases."
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Trouble in paradise?
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/leprosy-may-be-endemic-florida-cdc-rcna97567
Cases of leprosy have increased in Florida and the southeastern United States over the last decade, according to a new report.
Leprosy, officially called Hansen’s disease, is a rare type of bacterial infection that attacks the nerves and can cause swelling under the skin. The new research paper, published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, found that reported cases doubled in the Southeast over the last 10 years.
Central Florida in particular has seen a disproportionate share of cases, which indicates it might be an endemic location for the disease, meaning leprosy has a consistent presence in the region's population rather than popping up in the form of one-off outbreaks.
"According to the National Hansen’s Disease Program, 159 new cases were reported in the United States in 2020; Florida was among the top reporting states," the report said. "Central Florida, in particular, accounted for 81% of cases reported in Florida and almost one fifth of nationally reported cases."
shut'er down, mask up, shelter in place until we "flatten the curve" we can do this together ::)
doc fettucine picked a fine time to retire...we are doomed i say
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shut'er down, mask up, shelter in place until we "flatten the curve" we can do this together ::)
doc fettucine picked a fine time to retire...we are doomed i say
8 of 10
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Trouble in paradise?
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/leprosy-may-be-endemic-florida-cdc-rcna97567
Cases of leprosy have increased in Florida and the southeastern United States over the last decade, according to a new report.
Leprosy, officially called Hansen’s disease, is a rare type of bacterial infection that attacks the nerves and can cause swelling under the skin. The new research paper, published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, found that reported cases doubled in the Southeast over the last 10 years.
Central Florida in particular has seen a disproportionate share of cases, which indicates it might be an endemic location for the disease, meaning leprosy has a consistent presence in the region's population rather than popping up in the form of one-off outbreaks.
"According to the National Hansen’s Disease Program, 159 new cases were reported in the United States in 2020; Florida was among the top reporting states," the report said. "Central Florida, in particular, accounted for 81% of cases reported in Florida and almost one fifth of nationally reported cases."
We talked about it during COVID, but LOVE when news articles use percentage increases to gain clicks. 15 cases in Florida, END TIMES ARE HERE.
But of note, these were mostly in Brevard County. Home of the Kennedy Space Center. Can't rule out alien influence here.
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We talked about it during COVID, but LOVE when news articles use percentage increases to gain clicks. 15 cases in Florida, END TIMES ARE HERE.
But of note, these were mostly in Brevard County. Home of the Kennedy Space Center. Can't rule out alien influence here.
+1
Context is always important.
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We talked about it during COVID, but LOVE when news articles use percentage increases to gain clicks. 15 cases in Florida, END TIMES ARE HERE.
But of note, these were mostly in Brevard County. Home of the Kennedy Space Center. Can't rule out alien influence here.
In 2023, I would think one case of leprosy in a major U.S. metro area would be eye-opening.
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As soon soon as a way is found to connect it to teenage boys getting vaccinated for COVID, or a way is found to blame it on the rainbow.community, Florida will be all over it.
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As soon soon as a way is found to connect it to teenage boys getting vaccinated for COVID, or a way is found to blame it on the rainbow.community, Florida will be all over it.
Only a matter of time before Florida starts shipping its lepers to Martha's Vineyard.
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Leper Caye has a nice ring to it
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In 2023, I would think one case of leprosy in a major U.S. metro area would be eye-opening.
The politically correct name is Hansen's disease. Except for Hansen, of course.
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The politically correct name is Hansen's disease. Except for Hansen, of course.
Mmmmmmm pox....
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“The 15 cases ... within a couple of days is gonna be down to close to zero.”
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Zoom, of all companies, is requiring employees to return to the office.
Staff who live within 50 miles of a Zoom workplace must now be there at least two days per week. HQ is in San Jose.
"We believe that a structured hybrid approach - meaning employees that live near an office need to be onsite two days a week to interact with their teams - is most effective for Zoom," a company spokesperson told Business Insider. "As a company, we are in a better position to use our own technologies, continue to innovate, and support our global customers. We'll continue to leverage the entire Zoom platform to keep our employees and dispersed teams connected and working efficiently."
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3998019-remote-work-zoom-tells-employees-to-return-to-office?lctg=60ab95209838154d2d2b6636&mailingid=32317080&messageid=wall_street_breakfast&serial=32317080.29583&userid=1115549&utm_campaign=wsb_08_07_2023&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=wall_street_breakfast
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All employees should be working in office, factories, schools, etc. Absolutely no reason to work remotely, aina?
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Only a matter of time before Florida starts shipping its lepers to Martha's Vineyard.
OK, time for a reality check.
Few, if any of us, on the Republican side are opposed to immigration. We embrace the things that make our country special. Immigration is one of those things.
As much as you guys hate Governor DeSantis, even he favors legalized immigration. So do I, as my family was built on it.
But what many of us have concerns about is uncontrolled, unfettered immigration. When you throw the doors open with no regulation and no management of the process, a country ends up with problems. Drugs, for one, get in. Criminals too end up here. If we just throw the doors open, we'll have a billion people here in 30 or 40 years. You think we have environmental problems now, just wait until we try to feed, clothe, house, educate and create economic opportunity for a population three times our current size.
Look, I have real problems with what our Governor did last year in Martha's Vineyard. It's failing to respect human dignity. But I understand the frustration of our governor, the Governor of Texas and other states over the immigration issue. Up until recently, Florida, Texas and Arizona have borne the brunt of the illegal immigration costs.
And lest you think this is a GOP only issue, Mayor Johnson in Chicago is proposing to move migrants to community centers across the city. The outrage is substantial from many of the residents whose elected officials voted to make Chicago a sanctuary city. New Chicago motto: "Do as I say, not as I do."
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But what many of us have concerns about is uncontrolled, unfettered immigration. When you throw the doors open with no regulation and no management of the process, a country ends up with problems.
Good thing that isn't happening.
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Few, if any of us, on the Republican side are opposed to immigration. We embrace the things that make our country special. Immigration is one of those things.
Simply untrue.
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OK, time for a reality check.
Few, if any of us, on the Republican side are opposed to immigration. We embrace the things that make our country special. Immigration is one of those things.
As much as you guys hate Governor DeSantis, even he favors legalized immigration. So do I, as my family was built on it.
But what many of us have concerns about is uncontrolled, unfettered immigration. When you throw the doors open with no regulation and no management of the process, a country ends up with problems. Drugs, for one, get in. Criminals too end up here. If we just throw the doors open, we'll have a billion people here in 30 or 40 years. You think we have environmental problems now, just wait until we try to feed, clothe, house, educate and create economic opportunity for a population three times our current size.
Look, I have real problems with what our Governor did last year in Martha's Vineyard. It's failing to respect human dignity. But I understand the frustration of our governor, the Governor of Texas and other states over the immigration issue. Up until recently, Florida, Texas and Arizona have borne the brunt of the illegal immigration costs.
And lest you think this is a GOP only issue, Mayor Johnson in Chicago is proposing to move migrants to community centers across the city. The outrage is substantial from many of the residents whose elected officials voted to make Chicago a sanctuary city. New Chicago motto: "Do as I say, not as I do."
As far as I can tell, nobody here favors "uncontrolled, unfettered immigration." And, as Sultan notes, that isn't happening.
In fact, I can't think of any notable political figure who supports that. Can you name some? Or are you just throwing out red herrings?
It's true that some of us aren't fans of the demonization of people for the "crime" of seeking a better life for themselves at their family. These are, in fact, the same motivations that brought all of our families here. And we're definitely not fans of using people - through deception, no less - as political props.
Florida bears the brunt of illegal immigration costs? My dude ... DeSantis had to send his people to Texas to find illegal immigrants for his stunt. And yet somehow California, which bears a far greater burden than any other state, can manage its frustrations without dehumanizing people.
Drugs? The reality is the vast majority of illegal drugs are brought into this country by American citizens at legal crossing points.
Crime? An illegal immigrant is far less likely to commit a serious crime than a citizen or a legal immigrant.
As for Chicago, there's no "substantial outrage," and what controversy that exists is over procedure, not the fact the city is trying to accommodate migrants.
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OK, time for a reality check.
Few, if any of us, on the Republican side are opposed to immigration. We embrace the things that make our country special. Immigration is one of those things.
As much as you guys hate Governor DeSantis, even he favors legalized immigration. So do I, as my family was built on it.
But what many of us have concerns about is uncontrolled, unfettered immigration. When you throw the doors open with no regulation and no management of the process, a country ends up with problems. Drugs, for one, get in. Criminals too end up here. If we just throw the doors open, we'll have a billion people here in 30 or 40 years. You think we have environmental problems now, just wait until we try to feed, clothe, house, educate and create economic opportunity for a population three times our current size.
Look, I have real problems with what our Governor did last year in Martha's Vineyard. It's failing to respect human dignity. But I understand the frustration of our governor, the Governor of Texas and other states over the immigration issue. Up until recently, Florida, Texas and Arizona have borne the brunt of the illegal immigration costs.
And lest you think this is a GOP only issue, Mayor Johnson in Chicago is proposing to move migrants to community centers across the city. The outrage is substantial from many of the residents whose elected officials voted to make Chicago a sanctuary city. New Chicago motto: "Do as I say, not as I do."
Other than where you are expressing your own personal opinions, literally nothing you say here is accurate.
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All employees should be working in office, factories, schools, etc. Absolutely no reason to work remotely, aina?
I thought cities where a large chunk of offices are aren’t safe? Why are you dooming us to be victims of violence?
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Good thing that isn't happening.
Completely divorced from reality.
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As far as I can tell, nobody here favors "uncontrolled, unfettered immigration." And, as Sultan notes, that isn't happening.
In fact, I can't think of any notable political figure who supports that. Can you name some? Or are you just throwing out red herrings?
It's true that some of us aren't fans of the demonization of people for the "crime" of seeking a better life for themselves at their family. These are, in fact, the same motivations that brought all of our families here. And we're definitely not fans of using people - through deception, no less - as political props.
Florida bears the brunt of illegal immigration costs? My dude ... DeSantis had to send his people to Texas to find illegal immigrants for his stunt. And yet somehow California, which bears a far greater burden than any other state, can manage its frustrations without dehumanizing people.
Drugs? The reality is the vast majority of illegal drugs are brought into this country by American citizens at legal crossing points.
Crime? An illegal immigrant is far less likely to commit a serious crime than a citizen or a legal immigrant.
As for Chicago, there's no "substantial outrage," and what controversy that exists is over procedure, not the fact the city is trying to accommodate migrants.
Also, the majority of illegal immigrants do not cross the border illegally. They cross legally then overstay their visa whether student or visitation. I knew of several illegal immigrants and none spoke Spanish. After staying here, they spent 10-15 years and 10s of thousands $ applying for legal status which they eventually obtained.
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Completely divorced from reality.
??? It is legal to come to the United States to request asylum. Applicants may stay in the United States, and even work, until their application is heard. My understanding is that the people sent to Martha's Vineyard had already requested asylum and that some had work permits as well.
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https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/border-crisis-cbp-s-response (https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/border-crisis-cbp-s-response)
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https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/border-crisis-cbp-s-response (https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/border-crisis-cbp-s-response)
So, as I said, the vast majority of migrants come to the country and request asylum. Which is perfectly legal and neither "uncontrolled" nor "unfettered."
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https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/border-crisis-cbp-s-response (https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/border-crisis-cbp-s-response)
I see your backing sultan's point again
They were pushed by the threat of violence and by economic hardships. They were pulled in by the chance at a good job in a booming U.S. economy. They were lured by smugglers dangling a false promise that if they bring their children, they will get to stay in the U.S.
Also from 10/18-9/19. I think a great wall was being built then. Musta beena surplus of ladders!
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I see your backing sultan's point again
Also from 10/18-9/19. I think a great wall was being built then. Musta beena surplus of ladders!
Cherrypicking a single sentence out of an entire report. Do you know how stupid that makes you look?
It's also the most recent report available. Things have gotten worse since Sleepy has been in office, despite your lame joke about the wall.
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Cherrypicking a single sentence out of an entire report. Do you know how stupid that makes you look?
I actually read the whole thing, and I'm confident your grey mush just can't comprehend it.
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I actually read the whole thing, and I'm confident your grey mush just can't comprehend it.
Ooohhh...someone attended Hards' Internet Tough Guy tm seminar this weekend.
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Ooohhh...someone attended Hards' Internet Tough Guy tm seminar this weekend.
I think you misspelled Internet "correct" guy. The tough guy would post an article with no commentary that proves correct the guy that he's arguing against, then then say it makes someone else look dumb for pointing it out.
I think you best stick to pig emojis, more your speed.
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OK, time for a reality check.
Few, if any of us, on the Republican side are opposed to immigration. We embrace the things that make our country special. Immigration is one of those things.
As much as you guys hate Governor DeSantis, even he favors legalized immigration. So do I, as my family was built on it.
Example 2,438,541 of how Republicans embrace immigration...so long as the immigrants are the white, errrrr "right" kind.
https://twitter.com/laurenwitzkede/status/1688753613856739328
(https://images2.imgbox.com/24/88/Br8GMIs5_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/Br8GMIs5)
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Example 2,438,541 of how Republicans embrace immigration...so long as the immigrants are the white, errrrr "right" kind.
https://twitter.com/laurenwitzkede/status/1688753613856739328
(https://images2.imgbox.com/24/88/Br8GMIs5_o.png) (https://imgbox.com/Br8GMIs5)
another insane partisan asinine response-racist much? this is NOT how republicans view legal immigration.
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this is NOT how republicans view legal immigration.
That tweet came from the Republican nominee for a U.S. Senate seat from
Delaware in 2020. How much more Republican does it get?
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another insane partisan asinine response-racist much? this is NOT how republicans view legal immigration.
LOL
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That tweet came from the Republican nominee for a U.S. Senate seat from
Delaware in 2020. How much more Republican does it get?
regardless, this is not emblematic of republicans belief in the illegal immigration system. by your thinking, ho boy, we could have a field day with that broad brush-you wanna go first?
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Any y'all able ta name da 9 wonders of da world, hey?
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Any y'all able ta name da 9 wonders of da world, hey?
8) Hunter's septum
9) grand canyon
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Any y'all able ta name da 9 wonders of da world, hey?
yellow school buses
community banks
heels up's headboard
venn diagrams
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regardless, this is not emblematic of republicans belief in the illegal immigration system. by your thinking, ho boy, we could have a field day with that broad brush-you wanna go first?
You sure about that?
Nearly half of Republicans want the US to reduce legal immigration.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-republicans-talk-about-immigration-they-dont-just-mean-illegal-immigration/amp/
And when he entered office, Trump's stated goal was to reduce legal immigration by 63 percent. He didn't quite get there, but he wasn't far off.
https://www.cato.org/blog/president-trump-reduced-legal-immigration-he-did-not-reduce-illegal-immigration
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regardless, this is not emblematic of republicans belief in the illegal immigration system. by your thinking, ho boy, we could have a field day with that broad brush-you wanna go first?
Of course it is. This fantasyland where you live is delusional.
Trump opened his campaign calling Mexicans rapists (every accusation is an admission, indeed) and proceeded to claim that the people screaming "Jews will not replace" were "very fine people". The MAGAts love him because he made it acceptable to say out loud all the racist things they couldn't previously say.
What do you think The Great Replacement theory is all about? You know, the one Tuckems liked to promote endlessly. Bannon, Ingraham, Kirk, and Nazi dead ringer Stephen Miller amongst many others touted the Great Replacement theory frequently.
Immigrants are just one of the many scapegoat groups Republicans like to focus their perpetual resentment and outrage towards.
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Of course it is. This fantasyland where you live is delusional.
Trump opened his campaign calling Mexicans rapists (every accusation is an admission, indeed) and proceeded to claim that the people screaming "Jews will not replace" were "very fine people". The MAGAts love him because he made it acceptable to say out loud all the racist things they couldn't previously say.
What do you think The Great Replacement theory is all about? You know, the one Tuckems liked to promote endlessly. Bannon, Ingraham, Kirk, and Nazi dead ringer Stephen Miller amongst many others touted the Great Replacement theory frequently.
Immigrants are just one of the many scapegoat groups Republicans like to focus their perpetual resentment and outrage towards.
how do you guys live in a perpetual state of anger? there is more to this issue than reducing "legal" immigration by the repubs, but regardless, another broad brush smith. you make it sound like he said ALL mexicans are rapists. he did NOT.
“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. […] They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people”
you guys sit breathless watching for any little crack you can get in your digs. we are not getting any of the countries best. what happened to the standards we set for immigrants to be allowed in? asylum? that is one helluva blanket. then, that app is a joke. what are we doing about those who don't show up for their hearings? what about those who came without even setting up a hearing?
oh, btw, there are many the biden syndicate are holding in cages in the 113 degree Az heat at the border...haven't seen sandy down there crying recently
there is quite the chasm between the free flow we are experiencing and an orderly flow knowing who comes in and who doesn't
the so called sanctuary cities can't handle a few thousand of the people they supposedly welcomed with open arms...until they showed up. while the border cities are getting hammered with tens of thousands each day.
where is the money coming from to support these people when we can't even take care of our own legal citizens including veterans
the remnants of the wall that we paid for left lay rusting away would have worked. where is all of this electronic surveillance that was supposed to be better? why not a combination of the two? as of now, they are "bum" rushing, overwhelming our system and it's NOT working
this is out of control mayhem that cannot end well whenever that is
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Oh, he didn't call ALL Mexicans rapists? That's totally different then. ::)
Standards, asylum, hearings...the fantasyland that Fox feeds you ("out of control mayhem", "bum rushing" "free flowing") is not reality, but it is very effective at keeping you perpetually fearful of anyone not white and Northern European...you know, "countries best".
Now, tell me, why is the The Great Replacement theory spouted by so many Republicans?
EDIT: The idea that Trump's border wall "lay rusting away" a mere 2 1/2 years later sounds just about right for him.