Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”

[5DollarPitcher]

The tournament is a crapshoot.  Ask the two Final Four teams who avoided playing a 1 or 2 seed on their way there. 

I admire your conviction of being wrong.  I do appreciate you making this poll, too.  It's been quite amusing

I just showed my work on how the tournament is mathematically not a crapshoot.

Your (or anyone else's) cope opinion doesn't change basic math.

[Uncle Rico]

I just showed my work on how the tournament is mathematically not a crapshoot.

Your (or anyone else's) cope opinion doesn't change basic math.

It is a crapshoot.  Avoiding 1 and 2 seeds.  Crapshoot. 

I love how you think it's coping.  You're funny.

[5DollarPitcher]

It is a crapshoot.  Avoiding 1 and 2 seeds.  Crapshoot. 

I love how you think it's coping.  You're funny.

Why don't you run the numbers through a calculator.

[Uncle Rico]

Why don't you run the numbers through a calculator.

Numbers?  Like avoiding a 1 or 2-seed?  Playing a team underseeded, overseeded?  Playing a team that's a bad matchup?  Injuries?  Team getting healthy?

Crapshoot

[5DollarPitcher]

Numbers?  Like avoiding a 1 or 2-seed?  Playing a team underseeded, overseeded?  Playing a team that's a bad matchup?  Injuries?  Team getting healthy?

Crapshoot

Crapshoot most probable outcome: 16.67%
NCAA tournament most probable outcome: 86%

L

[Uncle Rico]

Crapshoot most probable outcome: 16.67%
NCAA tournament most probable outcome: 86%

L

Crapshoot.  W.  Your math just proved it.

[5DollarPitcher]

Crapshoot.  W.  Your math just proved it.

Keep reaching kiddo!

[Uncle Rico]

Keep reaching kiddo!

I don't have to reach.  The tournament has been and always will be a crapshoot.  That's just facts.  The math proves it.  If it wasn't a crapshoot, the number one overall seed would win it every year.  Why play it?  Because it's a crapshoot, that's why. 

[5DollarPitcher]

I don't have to reach.  The tournament has been and always will be a crapshoot.  That's just facts.  The math proves it.  If it wasn't a crapshoot, the number one overall seed would win it every year.  Why play it?  Because it's a crapshoot, that's why.

But one scenario has 12 mathematically possible outcomes and the other has 68 mathematically possible outcomes.

You following yet?

[Uncle Rico]

But one scenario has 12 mathematically possible outcomes and the other has 68 mathematically possible outcomes.

You following yet?

Yes.  It's a crapshoot.  If it wasn't, the top 4 seeds would reach the Final 4 every year. 

You follow yet?

[5DollarPitcher]

Yes.  It's a crapshoot.  If it wasn't, the top 4 seeds would reach the Final 4 every year. 

You follow yet?

You're still lost!

Let's just agree on one fact at a time.

86% > 16.67%

Agree?

[Uncle Rico]

You're still lost!

Let's just agree on one fact at a time.

86% > 16.67%

Agree?

You're still lost.  The tournament is a crapshoot.  That's a fact. 

[5DollarPitcher]

Yes.  It's a crapshoot.  If it wasn't, the top 4 seeds would reach the Final 4 every year. 

You follow yet?

Anything with even 0.0000001% variability is now a crapshoot!

If the top 4 seeds reached every Final 4 for 99 years and then one year it was the top 3 seed and the 5th seed, it's now a crapshoot!

That's the logical box you've just painted around yourself!

[Uncle Rico]

Anything with even 0.0000001% variability is now a crapshoot!

If the top 4 seeds reached every Final 4 for 99 years and then one year it was the top 3 seed and the 5th seed, it's now a crapshoot!

That's the logical box you've just painted around yourself!

None of those things have happened, because the tournament is a crapshoot.

[5DollarPitcher]

None of those things have happened, because the tournament is a crapshoot.

Uh oh! Got caught - better grab those goalposts! 😂😂

You're too fun.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Uh oh! Got caught - better grab those goalposts! 😂😂

You're too fun.

Reminder the tourney is a crapshoot. 

[Uncle Rico]

Uh oh! Got caught - better grab those goalposts! 😂😂

You're too fun.

Grab what goalposts?  I haven't moved a single goal post.  The tournament is a crapshoot. 

[Uncle Rico]

Reminder the tourney is a crapshoot.

Indeed, it is. 

[5DollarPitcher]

Grab what goalposts?  I haven't moved a single goal post.  The tournament is a crapshoot.

You: "If the tournament wasn't a crapshoot all top 4 seeds would go to the Final Four every single year"

Me: proceeds to logically and mathematically explain how what you said is not the inverse of a crapshoot.

You: "doesn't matter it's never happened!"

[Uncle Rico]

You: "If the tournament wasn't a crapshoot all top 4 seeds would go to the Final Four every single year"

Me: proceeds to logically and mathematically explain how what you said is not the inverse of a crapshoot.

You: "doesn't matter it's never happened!"

The tournament is a crapshoot.  This has been proven over and over.  Math and logic prove it

[5DollarPitcher]

The tournament is a crapshoot.  This has been proven over and over.  Math and logic prove it

Math and logic actually disprove it. You saying those words without showing any work doesn't make it true.

[Uncle Rico]

Math and logic actually disprove it. You saying those words without showing any work doesn't make it true.

Math and logic actually prove it.  The numbers you've provided prove it.  History proves it.  This years tournament proves it.  This poll proves it.  Crapshoot

[5DollarPitcher]

Math and logic actually prove it.  The numbers you've provided prove it.  History proves it.  This years tournament proves it.  This poll proves it.  Crapshoot

86>17

Mathematically not a crapshoot.

[Uncle Rico]

86>17

Mathematically not a crapshoot.

Yes, it is. 

[rocky_warrior]

Seriously guys.  I'll allow you each one more reply to each other if you choose.  After that, I've got the banhammer ready.