Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”

[brewcity77]

Isn't this a fact?

The problem with this rationale is it wasn't true when the tourney started. Since brackets were filled out starting on March 13, the #1 team Houston, #2 Alabama, and #3 UCLA all lost.

UConn wasn't #1 and then won the tournament, they became #1 by winning the tournament. They got there because (and not until) the teams in front of them lost.

[WhiteTrash]

The problem with this rationale is it wasn't true when the tourney started. Since brackets were filled out starting on March 13, the #1 team Houston, #2 Alabama, and #3 UCLA all lost.

UConn wasn't #1 and then won the tournament, they became #1 by winning the tournament. They got there because (and not until) the teams in front of them lost.

The polls are flawed and a crapshoot.

[PointWarrior]

BREAKING NEWS: KenPom number 1 overall rated team wins crapshoot tournament

KenPom is a crapshoot.

[brewcity77]

The polls are flawed and a crapshoot.

What polls? No one is talking about polls.

[WhiteTrash]

What polls? No one is talking about polls.

I think I lost track of the thread. Humor gone bad.

[5DollarPitcher]

The problem with this rationale is it wasn't true when the tourney started. Since brackets were filled out starting on March 13, the #1 team Houston, #2 Alabama, and #3 UCLA all lost.

UConn wasn't #1 and then won the tournament, they became #1 by winning the tournament. They got there because (and not until) the teams in front of them lost.

So they played basketball games at such a high level that they became statistically the best team in the country and also won the tournament?

Doesn't sound like a crapshoot. Sounds like they were just better than everybody else.

[lawdog77]

So they played basketball games at such a high level that they became statistically the best team in the country and also won the tournament?

Doesn't sound like a crapshoot. Sounds like they were just better than everybody else.

UConn avoided Bill Self and Kansas. Thats a shot of the craps right there.

[MU82]

Were the NCAA tournament not a crapshoot, to win the title UConn would have had to beat the #1 in its own West Region, the #2 in its own region, the #1 in the Midwest, and either the #1 in the East or the #1 in the South.

But because of the crapshooty nature of the NCAA tournament, UConn got to avoid having to play any #1 or #2 seed en route to the championship.

Hurley and his team sure are thankful that the tournament is a crapshoot.

[brewcity77]

So they played basketball games at such a high level that they became statistically the best team in the country and also won the tournament?

Doesn't sound like a crapshoot. Sounds like they were just better than everybody else.

Your argument completely falls apart when you get past UConn though. Because either it's not a crapshoot, and thus Houston, Alabama, and Tennessee were in the Final Four, or it is a crapshoot, which allowed SDSU to reach the final despite finishing #14 at kenpom, when if they were really the second best team they would have become that by playing games at such a high level.

Quite simply, you've painted yourself into a corner of wrongness and can't get out.

[MU82]

Your argument completely falls apart when you get past UConn though. Because either it's not a crapshoot, and thus Houston, Alabama, and Tennessee were in the Final Four, or it is a crapshoot, which allowed SDSU to reach the final despite finishing #14 at kenpom, when if they were really the second best team they would have become that by playing games at such a high level.

Quite simply, you've painted yourself into a corner of wrongness and can't get out.

It falls apart even when UConn is included, brew. The crapshooty nature of the tournament gave them a relatively easy road to the title -- game after game after game.

They were fortunate they didn't have to play a top-half-of-the-Big-East caliber team in the NCAA tourney.

[5DollarPitcher]

Were the NCAA tournament not a crapshoot, to win the title UConn would have had to beat the #1 in its own West Region, the #2 in its own region, the #1 in the Midwest, and either the #1 in the East or the #1 in the South.

But because of the crapshooty nature of the NCAA tournament, UConn got to avoid having to play any #1 or #2 seed en route to the championship.

Hurley and his team sure are thankful that the tournament is a crapshoot.

Higher seed has to win every game or else crapshoot - good logic.

[MU82]

Higher seed has to win every game or else crapshoot - good logic.

If only I had said that.

But don't worry, nobody ever expects you to admit you're wrong. You're one of the handful of Scoopers who never do, no matter how wrong you are.

[5DollarPitcher]

Your argument completely falls apart when you get past UConn though. Because either it's not a crapshoot, and thus Houston, Alabama, and Tennessee were in the Final Four, or it is a crapshoot, which allowed SDSU to reach the final despite finishing #14 at kenpom, when if they were really the second best team they would have become that by playing games at such a high level.

Quite simply, you've painted yourself into a corner of wrongness and can't get out.

The argument you and so many others continue to make is based on illustrating how the tournament is "not not a crapshoot". You say that if it wasn't a crapshoot, the top 4 KenPom teams would be in the Final Four every single time. Or the higher seed would win every time and there'd be a bunch of perfect brackets.

You can't argue something is a crapshoot by arguing why it's not not a crapshoot. Especially if your definition of "not a crapshoot" is as absurd as implying virtual 0% variability.

Again - the focused pool of the very top top teams wins the tournament and/or goes to the Final Four at rates like 80% and 90%+. Those percentages are not consistent with any definition of crapshoot.

[Uncle Rico]

The NCAA Tournament is a crapshoot.

What isn't a crapshoot?  The result of this poll

[Lennys Tap]

Okay, so you agree?

That life and everything about it isn't 100% predictable? Sure. That the NCAA tournament is less beholden to math science and the laws of probability than other events? No.

But if the odds against Houston winning the NCAA were 7-1 and the odds against the Bucks (or whoever is favored in the NBA playoffs) are 8-5, of course it's more likely that the favorite wins under the latter circumstances. Given that, the NBA playoffs are by definition more predictable.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

The argument you and so many others continue to make is based on illustrating how the tournament is "not not a crapshoot". You say that if it wasn't a crapshoot, the top 4 KenPom teams would be in the Final Four every single time. Or the higher seed would win every time and there'd be a bunch of perfect brackets.

You can't argue something is a crapshoot by arguing why it's not not a crapshoot. Especially if your definition of "not a crapshoot" is as absurd as implying virtual 0% variability.

Again - the focused pool of the very top top teams wins the tournament and/or goes to the Final Four at rates like 80% and 90%+. Those percentages are not consistent with any definition of crapshoot.

Accept your well-deserved defeat and let this thread die a merciful death.

[5DollarPitcher]

Accept your well-deserved defeat and let this thread die a merciful death.

Nah

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That life and everything about it isn't 100% predictable? Sure. That the NCAA tournament is less beholden to math science and the laws of probability than other events? No.

But if the odds against Houston winning the NCAA were 7-1 and the odds against the Bucks (or whoever is favored in the NBA playoffs) are 8-5, of course it's more likely that the favorite wins under the latter circumstances. Given that, the NBA playoffs are by definition more predictable.

So you agree

[WhiteTrash]

Since there is no definition of 'crapshoot', this argument is akin to arguing what is a better color, purple or red.

[brewcity77]

Since there is no definition of 'crapshoot', this argument is akin to arguing what is a better color, purple or red.

The answer is obviously purple. Unless you're a Badger fan.

[#UnleashSean]

Since there is no definition of 'crapshoot', this argument is akin to arguing what is a better color, purple or red.

Better dead then red guy.

[lawdog77]

Since there is no definition of 'crapshoot', this argument is akin to arguing what is a better color, purple or red.

vikings or badgers. neither