Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”

[WhiteTrash]

The numbers over the years prove it is not a classic crapshoot, but as mentioned before it is far from a guaranty that the best team will win every game. I can't think of any other tournament / playoff  in any sport that is any different.

Are the World Cup, NFL Playoffs and The Masters a crapshoot?

[brewcity77]

Because it's a crapshoot is why we could've won this. Because no team in the country was decidedly better than us.

[MU82]

The numbers over the years prove it is not a classic crapshoot, but as mentioned before it is far from a guaranty that the best team will win every game. I can't think of any other tournament / playoff  in any sport that is any different.

The NBA playoffs haven't really been crapshooty over the years, as the 3-4 teams generally considered the "best" tend to be represented in the NBA Finals. All series are best-of-7, so even if a really good team slips up a time or two and loses to a lesser team, the format favors the better team. It's been many years since the NBA champion wasn't regarded as truly one of the league's top teams going into the playoffs.

Even though the NHL playoffs are best-of-7, a hot goalie can produce a string of upsets - enough to be crapshooty in nature.

Baseball's not quite as much, though again a hot pitcher and/or couple of hot batters can carry an underdog. The way pitching goes now, it's not as easy to have a hot-pitcher scenario, though. There are more postseason games now, and pitchers only rarely work more often than every 5th day. Once upon a time, guys like Gibson, Koufax and even Viola, Morris and Randy Johnson would pitch three times in a 7-game series and work deep into games. Of course, if the stud pitcher like those named were on the best team, I guess one could hypothesize that makes things even more crapshooty now.

[Babybluejeans]

Take a look at the tourney winners ya ding dongs. A single-game elimination tournament with 68/64 teams will necessarily produce outliers. But this list forecloses any argument it's "crapshoot":

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_champions

[5DollarPitcher]

The numbers over the years prove it is not a classic crapshoot, but as mentioned before it is far from a guaranty that the best team will win every game. I can't think of any other tournament / playoff  in any sport that is any different.

Are the World Cup, NFL Playoffs and The Masters a crapshoot?

Correct

[5DollarPitcher]

Take a look at the tourney winners ya ding dongs. A single-game elimination tournament with 68/64 teams will necessarily produce outliers. But this list forecloses any argument it's "crapshoot":

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_champions

Correct

[Goose]

It is more of a crapshoot than ever. All you can do is put yourself in position for success on a regular basis. The more at bats a program gets, the better the chance for success.

[Uncle Rico]

Correct

Incorrect

[brewcity77]

Okay, so since kenpom started in 2002, we have pre-tourney champion rankings of...

• 2002: #4 Maryland
  
• 2003: #20 Syracuse
  
• 2004: #5 Connecticut
  
• 2005: #2 North Carolina
  
• 2006: #6 Florida
  
• 2007: #3 Florida
  
• 2008: #1 Kansas
  
• 2009: #3 North Carolina
  
• 2010: #2 Duke
  
• 2011: #15 Connecticut
  
• 2012: #1 Kentucky
  
• 2013: #2 Louisville
  
• 2014: #25 Connecticut
  
• 2015: #6 Duke
  
• 2016: #5 Villanova
  
• 2017: #3 North Carolina
  
• 2018: #2 Villanova
  
• 2019: #1 Virginia
  
• 2021: #4 Baylor
  
• 2022: #6 Kansas
  
• 2023: #4 UConn* (at best)

So the average kenpom rank to win the title was 5.71 with teams ranging from 1-25. The #1 overall team won the title 3 times (14.2% of the time), which is just as often as teams ranked 15th or lower won it. So I would stand by that in any given year, there are 5-10 teams that can win it, and in years like this one, that number balloons to 20-30 teams that could win it. If you are trying to crown your best team champion, this is the definition of a crapshoot.

[brewcity77]

And here are the pre-tourney ranks this year:

#4 UConn
#14 San Diego State
#25 Florida Atlantic
#39 Miami

If UConn doesn't win it, that only further reinforces the crapshoot argument.

[5DollarPitcher]

Incorrect

He was actually correct

[Uncle Rico]

He was actually correct

No, the tournament is a crapshoot.  I admire your dedication to always being wrong

[5DollarPitcher]

Okay, so since kenpom started in 2002, we have pre-tourney champion rankings of...

• 2002: #4 Maryland
  
• 2003: #20 Syracuse
  
• 2004: #5 Connecticut
  
• 2005: #2 North Carolina
  
• 2006: #6 Florida
  
• 2007: #3 Florida
  
• 2008: #1 Kansas
  
• 2009: #3 North Carolina
  
• 2010: #2 Duke
  
• 2011: #15 Connecticut
  
• 2012: #1 Kentucky
  
• 2013: #2 Louisville
  
• 2014: #25 Connecticut
  
• 2015: #6 Duke
  
• 2016: #5 Villanova
  
• 2017: #3 North Carolina
  
• 2018: #2 Villanova
  
• 2019: #1 Virginia
  
• 2021: #4 Baylor
  
• 2022: #6 Kansas
  
• 2023: #4 UConn* (at best)

So the average kenpom rank to win the title was 5.71 with teams ranging from 1-25. The #1 overall team won the title 3 times (14.2% of the time), which is just as often as teams ranked 15th or lower won it. So I would stand by that in any given year, there are 5-10 teams that can win it, and in years like this one, that number balloons to 20-30 teams that could win it. If you are trying to crown your best team champion, this is the definition of a crapshoot.

Looks like a hell of a lot of top 10 teams and a couple anomalies still in the top 25.

That's not a crapshoot.

[5DollarPitcher]

No, the tournament is a crapshoot.  I admire your dedication to always being wrong

Actually you're wrong bub

[Uncle Rico]

Actually you're wrong bub

No, I'm right.  Sorry this poll didn't work out like you thought it would. 

[5DollarPitcher]

In craps the odds of rolling a 7 (most probable outcome in a field of 12 outcomes) is 16.67%.

If we convert that, using basic math, to a field of 68 teams. The pool of most probable outcomes would be approximately the top 5.7 (call it 6) teams. (Math is 1/12 times field of 68).

Using Brew's own chart - that field of most probable outcomes occurs approximately 86% of the time (if UConn wins this year).

The tournament is factually, statistically, mathematically NOT a crapshoot. Sorry to burst anyone's bubble on that. You've been defeated.

[Uncle Rico]

In craps the odds of rolling a 7 (most probable outcome in a field of 12 outcomes) is 16.67%.

If we convert that, using basic math, to a field of 68 teams. The pool of most probable outcomes would be approximately the top 5.7 (call it 6) teams. (Math is 1/12 times field of 68).

Using Brew's own chart - that field of most probable outcomes occurs approximately 86% of the team (if UConn wins this year).

The tournament is factually, statistically, mathematically NOT a crapshoot. Sorry to burst anyone's bubble on that. You've been defeated.

No, you're wrong.  The tournament is a crapshoot.

[5DollarPitcher]

No, I'm right.  Sorry this poll didn't work out like you thought it would.

So wrong

[5DollarPitcher]

No, you're wrong.  The tournament is a crapshoot.

Math is wrong!! Agh! 😂😂

[Uncle Rico]

So wrong

No, I'm quite right. 

[5DollarPitcher]

No, I'm quite right.

Math is wrong and "Uncle Rico" (cringe movie btw) is right? I'll bet!

[Uncle Rico]

Math is wrong and "Uncle Rico" (cringe movie btw) is right? I'll bet!

You should.  You'd win if you did.

[5DollarPitcher]

You should.  You'd win if you did.

I don't bet against basic math

[NickelDimer]

How are you getting trolled this bad by Rico jfc

[Uncle Rico]

I don't bet against basic math

The tournament is a crapshoot.  Ask the two Final Four teams who avoided playing a 1 or 2 seed on their way there. 

I admire your conviction of being wrong.  I do appreciate you making this poll, too.  It's been quite amusing