Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

As already stated in the previous thread, you're taking the definition of crapshoot too literally.

He's taking one definition of crapshoot too literally (after saying definitions would not be provided meaning people are free to use whatever definition they want).

something (such as a business venture) that has an unpredictable outcome

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/crapshoot

Informal. anything unpredictable, risky, or problematical; gamble.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/crapshoot

a risky and uncertain venture

https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/crapshoot

a situation in which you do not know what will happen

https://www.macmillandictionary.com/us/dictionary/american/crapshoot

something that could produce a good or bad result — usually singular

https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/crapshoot



The funny thing is that I think he and most others agree on the actual meat and potatoes of the argument. They are just squabbling over vocabulary.

[Uncle Rico]

He's taking one definition of crapshoot too literally (after saying definitions would not be provided meaning people are free to use whatever definition they want).

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/crapshoot

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/crapshoot

https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/crapshoot

https://www.macmillandictionary.com/us/dictionary/american/crapshoot

https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/crapshoot



The funny thing is that I think he and most others agree on the actual meat and potatoes of the argument. They are just squabbling over vocabulary.

Think about the 1976 tournament from a Marquette standpoint.  Number 2 team in the nation gets stuck in the Mideast against an undefeated juggernaut in Indiana and has to play the regional final in South Bend. 

A year later, they get UNC-Charlotte in the Final 4.  Very good team but they avoid playing the team that was number 1 entering the tournament, Michigan, who Marquette had closed the season losing to by a point.  The Final 4 that year included the 4th, 5th, 7th and 17th ranked teams.

[4everwarriors]

It's a crapshoot

Sew, ur Chicos, aina?

[4everwarriors]

Think about the 1976 tournament from a Marquette standpoint.  Number 2 team in the nation gets stuck in the Mideast against an undefeated juggernaut in Indiana and has to play the regional final in South Bend. 

A year later, they get UNC-Charlotte in the Final 4.  Very good team but they avoid playing the team that was number 1 entering the tournament, Michigan, who Marquette had closed the season losing to by a point.  The Final 4 that year included the 4th, 5th, 7th and 17th ranked teams.

Wrong, that Mideast regional was played in Baton Rouge. Eye wuz der, hey?

[PointWarrior]

Asking for a friend...

Do pompous ass fans of a team running the vibe of the tourney make it more or less of a crapshoot?

[Uncle Rico]

Wrong, that Mideast regional was played in Tuscaloosa. Eye wuz der, hey?

I stand corrected.  Was it Tuscaloosa?  Records say it was Baton Rouge

[rocky_warrior]

Ruh roh... I think you have exceeded your post quota in this thread.

Yeah, I didn't think anyone else would get involved to take over for Rico.  Apparently I underestimated our users desire to see more replies from five$.

I can only try to help you all out - the rest is up to you.

[Lennys Tap]

I stand corrected.  Was it Tuscaloosa?  Records say it was Baton Rouge

76 was Baton Rouge - I was there. Don't know about 77.

[Uncle Rico]

76 was Baton Rouge - I was there. Don't know about 77.

Believe OKC

[MU82]

The funny thing is that I think he and most others agree on the actual meat and potatoes of the argument. They are just squabbling over vocabulary.

Wait ... so you're saying that Scoopers would have a multiple-page argument based on interpretations of semantics?

That's ridiculous! (Or not. Depends on how one defines ridiculous.)

[tower912]

Wait ... so you're saying that Scoopers would have a multiple-page argument based on interpretations of semantics?

That's ridiculous! (Or not. Depends on how one defines ridiculous.)

And how one defines semantics.

[4everwarriors]

I stand corrected.  Was it Tuscaloosa?  Records say it was Baton Rouge

Ur wright, Petrocelli, after ya got it rong ta begin wit. Nundaless, eye wuz at boat, hey?

[Uncle Rico]

Ur wright, Petrocelli, after ya got it rong ta begin wit. Nundaless, eye wuz at boat, hey?

Cool.  Would have been awesome to be at

[brewcity77]

What you're doing here is weighting the dice in the NCAA tournament field to reflect the fact that better teams are much more likely to go far than worse teams. And worse teams have a virtual 0% chance to go far.

This would be equivalent to acknowledging the tournament not a crapshoot, but rather a large field with a very focused group that actually has a chance to win.

If the argument is that the tournament is a crapshoot ONLY amongst the top 20-25 teams - I would actually agree with that. But that's not the argument people are making. People are saying the NCAA tournament, on the whole, is a crapshoot. Which is neither mathematically or logically true.

The dice are weighted toward the better teams just like the dice in craps are effectively weighted toward the most likely results (rolling something in the 5-9 range). Here's the argument I made earlier in the thread:

So I would stand by that in any given year, there are 5-10 teams that can win it, and in years like this one, that number balloons to 20-30 teams that could win it.

If the #1 team always won it, or even usually won it, then it wouldn't be a crapshoot. But typically there's a number of teams that could win it, many of whom aren't that consensus "best" team going in, and sometimes there are major outliers that win it. There's a limit to how far out that range goes (I don't think we'll ever see a 13-16 seed win, and think it's highly unlikely for double-digit seeds in general) but when you play one-off scenarios, it becomes random enough that teams like FAU or Miami could win it, even though they are well into the "crapshoot" range.

[5DollarPitcher]

If the #1 team always won it, or even usually won it, then it wouldn't be a crapshoot.

Except this is not the logical inverse of a crapshoot, regardless of the definition you use.

[5DollarPitcher]

The dice are weighted toward the better teams just like the dice in craps are effectively weighted toward the most likely results (rolling something in the 5-9 range).

The dice in craps are not "effectively weighted". There are more combinations of outcomes that make a 7 in a field of 12 than any other result. That's not "effectively" the same thing as weighting the dice.

The probability of the national champion coming from tier 1 in a field of 12 tiers is 86% - not close to a crapshoot.

[Uncle Rico]

The dice are weighted toward the better teams just like the dice in craps are effectively weighted toward the most likely results (rolling something in the 5-9 range). Here's the argument I made earlier in the thread:

If the #1 team always won it, or even usually won it, then it wouldn't be a crapshoot. But typically there's a number of teams that could win it, many of whom aren't that consensus "best" team going in, and sometimes there are major outliers that win it. There's a limit to how far out that range goes (I don't think we'll ever see a 13-16 seed win, and think it's highly unlikely for double-digit seeds in general) but when you play one-off scenarios, it becomes random enough that teams like FAU or Miami could win it, even though they are well into the "crapshoot" range.

Precisely, the tournament has been and always will be a crapshoot.  Some people need coping mechanisms to handle other fans not being as mad as they are their team lost.  It's weird but at the end of the day, the tournament is a crapshoot just like coaches say it is

[MU82]

The dice are weighted toward the better teams just like the dice in craps are effectively weighted toward the most likely results (rolling something in the 5-9 range). Here's the argument I made earlier in the thread:

If the #1 team always won it, or even usually won it, then it wouldn't be a crapshoot. But typically there's a number of teams that could win it, many of whom aren't that consensus "best" team going in, and sometimes there are major outliers that win it. There's a limit to how far out that range goes (I don't think we'll ever see a 13-16 seed win, and think it's highly unlikely for double-digit seeds in general) but when you play one-off scenarios, it becomes random enough that teams like FAU or Miami could win it, even though they are well into the "crapshoot" range.

Yep. And double-digit seeds don't need to win it to turn the tournament on its head. When they win in the first round -- which happens several times every year -- it changes the dynamic of the event. Suddenly, for example, 5 seeds that might not really be among the best teams in the field get better roads to advancing because the 13 beat the 4 in their region.

Even if one doesn't want to admit that the tournament is always a crapshoot, can one seriously look at what happened in 2023 and deny that this year was the ultimate crapshoot? Or would they argue that the cream rose to the top because San Diego State, Miami, Florida Atlantic and UConn really are the nation's 4 best teams?

[Judge Smails]

I'd say they are the 4 best teams, for the past two weeks. They're the only teams that are undefeated the past couple of weeks.

[Uncle Rico]

I'd say they are the 4 best teams, for the past two weeks. They're the only teams that are undefeated the past couple of weeks.

And the Badgers

[Judge Smails]

And the Badgers

further qualification: the only teams that are undefeated the past couple of weeks against good competition

[5DollarPitcher]

further qualification: the only teams that are undefeated the past couple of weeks against good competition

Qualification wasn't really necessary.

Only reason to include the Badgers would be if you also try to collect money from the craps table when you're dealt a 7 in Blackjack.

[Uncle Rico]

further qualification: the only teams that are undefeated the past couple of weeks against good competition

The NIT is a crapshoot, too.

[VegasWarrior77]

And the Badgers

When Wiscy won at Oregon recently Oregon played without their starting PG, SG and Center.

[Uncle Rico]

When Wiscy won at Oregon recently Oregon played without their starting PG, SG and Center.

Exactly.  Crapshoot