2023 NFL Draft/Offseason

[The Sultan of Semantics]

Lots of smoke about Lamar Jackson to the Falcons.

It's smart for the Ravens to use the non-exclusive tag. If they think Jackson is overpricing himself, let the market dictate and match. If that's still too much, you get two firsts.

So any trade is going to net them more than that.

[Pakuni]

It's smart for the Ravens to use the non-exclusive tag. If they think Jackson is overpricing himself, let the market dictate and match. If that's still too much, you get two firsts.

On the other hand, they probably could have received three 1sts in a trade.

If I'm, say, the Panthers or the Falcons, I'd much, much rather give two 1sts and a big contract to Lamar than two 1sts and additional draft capital to move up for the #1 pick and hope a guy pans out.

[JWags85]

Still need more skill players, but Lamar, Kyle Pitts, Cordarelle Patterson, and Drake London is an absurd amount of speed and weaponry to build around if the Falcons did it.

[Pakuni]

Still need more skill players, but Lamar, Kyle Pitts, Cordarelle Patterson, and Drake London is an absurd amount of speed and weaponry to build around if the Falcons did it.

Yep.
And Tyler Allgeier was really, really good the second half of the season as well.
Also, Atlanta trails only the Bears in available cap space. They can absorb a $50+ million hit on Lamar if they need to.

[Uncle Rico]

Still need more skill players, but Lamar, Kyle Pitts, Cordarelle Patterson, and Drake London is an absurd amount of speed and weaponry to build around if the Falcons did it.

Never underestimate desperate owners

[cheebs09]

Yikes. Not a great story for Mixon. No word yet if he was the one who shot the gun or even home.

[The Sultan of Semantics]

Lots of smoke about Lamar Jackson to the Falcons.

Or not.

https://twitter.com/diannaESPN/status/1633200049009176577?s=20

[Uncle Rico]

Or not.

https://twitter.com/diannaESPN/status/1633200049009176577?s=20

That’s because the Packers are getting him

[Jockey]

Yikes. Not a great story for Mixon. No word yet if he was the one who shot the gun or even home.

I miss the good old days when punching women was where he drew the line.

[WhiteTrash]

As someone who does not like the Giants, the Jones deal is awesome!! Well done NY. 

[muwarrior69]

As someone who does not like the Giants, the Jones deal is awesome!! Well done NY. 

https://nypost.com/2023/03/07/daniel-jones-giants-agree-to-contract-before-tag-deadline/

It should also help with keeping Barcley as well. I think the Giants will draft a receiver, but their main emphasis will be looking at offensive lineman.

[JWags85]

As someone who does not like the Giants, the Jones deal is awesome!! Well done NY. 

Not sure why you think so.  He's proven himself to be a capable starting caliber QB and its a pretty reasonable deal.  Especially with only $80MM guaranteed.  Its gonna look exceptionally inexpensive when Herbert, Lawrence, Burrow, not to mention Lamar, sign.

[wadesworld]

I like Jones. He’ll never be a top 5 QB. But he’s solid.

[JWags85]

I like Jones. He’ll never be a top 5 QB. But he’s solid.

Agreed, and he's not getting paid like one.  Its a cheaper deal than Dak got 2 years ago and he's younger without an injury history like when Dak got paid.  Considering there were rumors or vague buzz about him wanting $50MM a year, this is great for the Giants.

[Pakuni]

Not sure why you think so.  He's proven himself to be a capable starting caliber QB and its a pretty reasonable deal.  Especially with only $80MM guaranteed.  Its gonna look exceptionally inexpensive when Herbert, Lawrence, Burrow, not to mention Lamar, sign.

Daboll worked miracles with the Giants' offense this year, which improved despite Jones, not because of him.
Warren Sharp did a deep/analytics dive into Jones' season a couple weeks ago, and it's not pretty. He's worse than you might expect.
Sharp basically found that the Giants' offensive improvement was largely the result of a huge leap in red-zone efficiency, and the primary reasons for that were playcalling and a heavier reliance on the run game. In many areas, Jones was actually worse in 2022 than 2021.
From the article:

Out of 47 QBs last year, Jones ranked:

44th in percentage of throws to travel beyond the first down marker (only 37%)
42nd n YPA (6.0)
41st in target depth (7.1)
39th in completion rate (56%)
33rd in first down conversion rate (31%)
26th in EPA/att (-0.16)

Jones posted career lows on first-down passing and on third/fourth-down passing, and was a bottom-10 QB out of 47 qualifying passers in multiple efficiency metrics on these downs.
These are shockingly bad numbers.

The whole article is here. I suspect it'll make anyone who reads it much less bullish on Danny Dimes. He's a bottom 10 QB.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/is-daniel-jones-worth-a-huge-financial-committment-analytics-say

[wadesworld]

Daboll worked miracles with the Giants' offense this year, which improved despite Jones, not because of him.
Warren Sharp did a deep/analytics dive into Jones' season a couple weeks ago, and it's not pretty. He's worse than you might expect.
Sharp basically found that the Giants' offensive improvement was largely the result of a huge leap in red-zone efficiency, and the primary reasons for that were playcalling and a heavier reliance on the run game. In many areas, Jones was actually worse in 2022 than 2021.
From the article:

Out of 47 QBs last year, Jones ranked:

44th in percentage of throws to travel beyond the first down marker (only 37%)
42nd n YPA (6.0)
41st in target depth (7.1)
39th in completion rate (56%)
33rd in first down conversion rate (31%)
26th in EPA/att (-0.16)

Jones posted career lows on first-down passing and on third/fourth-down passing, and was a bottom-10 QB out of 47 qualifying passers in multiple efficiency metrics on these downs.
These are shockingly bad numbers.

The whole article is here. I suspect it'll make anyone who reads it much less bullish on Danny Dimes. He's a bottom 10 QB.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/is-daniel-jones-worth-a-huge-financial-committment-analytics-say

Interesting numbers. But that’s kind of what I think about him. He’s not someone who will have success in any offense in the league. But he can use his legs and if he has the right system he can be successful, which he was this year.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Daboll worked miracles with the Giants' offense this year, which improved despite Jones, not because of him.
Warren Sharp did a deep/analytics dive into Jones' season a couple weeks ago, and it's not pretty. He's worse than you might expect.
Sharp basically found that the Giants' offensive improvement was largely the result of a huge leap in red-zone efficiency, and the primary reasons for that were playcalling and a heavier reliance on the run game. In many areas, Jones was actually worse in 2022 than 2021.
From the article:

Out of 47 QBs last year, Jones ranked:

44th in percentage of throws to travel beyond the first down marker (only 37%)
42nd n YPA (6.0)
41st in target depth (7.1)
39th in completion rate (56%)
33rd in first down conversion rate (31%)
26th in EPA/att (-0.16)

Jones posted career lows on first-down passing and on third/fourth-down passing, and was a bottom-10 QB out of 47 qualifying passers in multiple efficiency metrics on these downs.
These are shockingly bad numbers.

The whole article is here. I suspect it'll make anyone who reads it much less bullish on Danny Dimes. He's a bottom 10 QB.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/is-daniel-jones-worth-a-huge-financial-committment-analytics-say

As I hear constantly on NYC sports talk, DJ is throwing to 3rd & 4th string receivers.  Also he has 7 rushing TDs.

[JWags85]

Interesting numbers. But that’s kind of what I think about him. He’s not someone who will have success in any offense in the league. But he can use his legs and if he has the right system he can be successful, which he was this year.

Further, I find it hard to believe that Daboll and Kafka didn't have significant input into whether or not Jones was retained for a sizeable extension.  And if they felt he could get it done, then there is something to be said for that.

[Pakuni]

Interesting numbers. But that’s kind of what I think about him. He’s not someone who will have success in any offense in the league. But he can use his legs and if he has the right system he can be successful, which he was this year.

Here's where we (and the analytics) differ.
There's no empirical case for believing Jones was successful last season. As Sharp's analysis points out, his numbers were bottom tier and the Giants' offense got better in spite of Jones' performance - largely by relying on him less - not because of it.

If you want to make the case that wins-losses is all that matters, that's OK. I would argue you could find many QBs who aren't costing you $82 million guaranteed to produce similarly.

[MU82]

The Giants made the playoffs this past season. Their only goal should be to win the Super Bowl the next couple of years. Will Daniel Jones help them do that? That's all that matters, and we'll have to see. There are no participation ribbons in pro sports.

[lawdog77]

Well, the Gians were top 5 in the league in passes dropped. They had horrible receivers, so maybe throwing downfield was not part of the gameplan.

The stats I see show Daniel Jones completing 67.2% of his passes. Only 5 INT's for the year.6th in QBR He's no Patrick Mahomes, but he's decent.

[WhiteTrash]

If Jones can double his numbers to become a top 10-15 QB, then the Giants did well.

I would not be surprised if the Giants drafted a QB relatively high in the next couple of years. 

[Uncle Rico]

Bears have traded first overall pick to Carolina!

[DegenerateDish]

Great trade, getting DJ Moore with all those picks is outstanding.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

And that, Packers fans, is why Bears fans were very happy with how the season turned out.