Big East 2024 Offseason

[brewcity77]

It does not matter as long as Marquette has no losses after Apr 8th.

I mean...we definitely won't have any losses after April 8th. At least not until next season. I can say that with 100% certainty.

[StillAWarrior]

I mean...we definitely won't have any losses after April 8th. At least not until next season. I can say that with 100% certainty.

Don't discount the possibility that the zombie apocalypse caused by the eclipse could delay the championship game by a few days.

[MuggsyB]

I assume we want Creighton and St.John's?

[ATL MU Warrior]

I can’t ever root for Seton Hall so Creighton for sure.

On a side note, Bediako for the Hall looks like the offspring of Sweetums and Animal from the Muppets.

[PGsHeroes32]

Yeah Like I said, we wanted Hall. Wasnt gonna happen.

But yeah insane to rather play Creighton

And now the Hall metrics gonna take a curb stomping.

[PGsHeroes32]

Butler gonna wind up falling to Q2 and Q3

[wisblue]

Four big blowouts in the BE tonight.

[Herman Cain]

Excellent win for Creighton.Looking forward to our battle with The Blue Jays

[PointWarrior]

Yes, the “excellent win”.   What were Sam Hauser’s stats tonight?

Excellent win for Creighton.Looking forward to our battle with The Blue Jays

[DoctorV]

UConn playing like dung, super undisciplined fouling everywhere.

Butler the next BE team to be in trouble after Nova and StJ as I predicted.

Problem is, they all seem to be following suit of “being in trouble”

I’d say that SH, with their 5 Q1s, 10 conference wins and Butler, Nova, DePaul left at home have to be sitting in the best shape despite the worst of the metrics. They have closed the gap on the metrics with the other bubble fodder.


After that Villanova might’ve gotten themselves back into it with 3 Q1s, the best metrics, and 3 “winnable” Q1s left (@Uconn a loss) @Providence, SH and v Creighton last 3 of the season.
I don’t trust their coach to make it happen though.

-I’ll call StJ done without an autobid, they are in shambles.
-X would need to sweep Marquette to get in the convo.
-Butler only has @SH left as a Q1 and their big road wins @MU+Creighton probably won’t be enough.
-Providence has @X&MU, v Nova and UConn so they’ve still got a path with a solid finish.

If I had to handicap right now I’d say that Seton Hall gets the 4th BE bid and Providence forces their way into a play in game.
I think those two squads, although not the most talented “of the rest” and with currently the worst metrics of the rest, are the two toughest squads in that group and have played the best.

Villanova has it there for the taking but from what I’ve seen I don’t think they will take it.

Update…

Nailed it on Butler. They were the next to crash and burn after Villanova and StJ- who went from 5-8 seed territory to out in the span of a month.

Valiant effort by Coach Matta but that the end of the day it won’t matta unless he wins the BET, if you catch my drift.

The thing about several teams crashing and burning is that the victors of those spoils rise from the ashes to find life again- so, Villanova and StJ back in play.

I stand by my claim that SH gets the 4th bid. I think even if they lose the next two and beat DePaul sitting at 12-8 in a round robin BE, with 5 Q1s will be enough. I know conference record no matta they say, but neither did conference and conference tourney titles, until the committee decided they did… (they always have).

Despite dung metrics SH will only sweat if they only beat DePaul and lose the rest of their games including BET first game, in which case I think they still get Dayton.

StJ becomes interesting because of recency bias in whooping that Butler arse on the road, along with the hoopla that is Pitino, but as Brew pointed out it’s quite thin. 3-10 in Q1 with the wins at Nova and at Butler (possible non tourney teams) and versus Creighton. Hardly a tournament resume.

Brew- how does their metric and predictive average compare to past tourney inclusion? While you’re at it, can you remind me what is used to find those averages and how I readily find them? I should know that but I seemingly always forget.
Hard for me to look being that crappy Q1 record for the Johnnies.

Villanova at Providence and then at SH in the next two is great, that’ll clear things up. I still believe Providence, despite tonight, will make a push for that last spot that goes to Dayton from the BE. I’m eyeing that last home game against UConn as a great way to punch that ticket for them, that’s a tough place to win at and they will have all the motivation in the world.

Also, a BET game of StJ versus Providence or Villanova would be a great elimination type of game. Unfair towards the StJ opponent via home field advantage but a nice way for Rick to pack his bags on the season and try again next year.

As a whole, BE still currently closer to 4 than 6 bids but I’m hoping for 5 with the last one in Dayton. I think SH and Providence have S16 chops this year if they get in, despite getting a nice lesson in getting owned tonight.

[1SE]

Unless someone loses to DePaul, the BE will have 5 in. 2 of SJU,Nova,PC,Butler,SH will be in. Gotta get to 68. But I agree it could pretty mich be any of those 5 (although Butler probably need BET finals at this point)

[Herman Cain]

https://nypost.com/2024/02/28/sports/st-johns-bashes-butler-to-revive-ncaa-tournament-hopes/amp/

[tower912]

Beating Creighton in Omaha is going to be difficult.   

[Its DJOver]

Yeah Like I said, we wanted Hall. Wasnt gonna happen.

But yeah insane to rather play Creighton

And now the Hall metrics gonna take a curb stomping.

Butler gonna wind up falling to Q2 and Q3

So neither SH or BU really fell all that much.  When there's already 27 data points, that 28 can't really move the needle all that much.  Only way BU actually falls to Q2/Q3 is if they lose to DePaul, and if you lose to DePaul you kinda deserve it.

[PGsHeroes32]

So neither SH or BU really fell all that much.  When there's already 27 data points, that 28 can't really move the needle all that much.  Only way BU actually falls to Q2/Q3 is if they lose to DePaul, and if you lose to DePaul you kinda deserve it.

Butler fell 5 spots. That’s a ton.

[Its DJOver]

Butler fell 5 spots. That’s a ton.

Not when all we need them to do is stay top 75.  They would need to drop almost as much after each of their final two games, which I don't see happening.

[StillAWarrior]

Beating Creighton in Omaha is going to be difficult.

Beating any Big East team not named DePaul or Georgetown on the road is difficult. But you are correct -- Creighton will be particularly difficult.

Road wins have been unusually hard to come by in all the major conferences this season.

[PGsHeroes32]

Not when all we need them to do is stay top 75.  They would need to drop almost as much after each of their final two games, which I don't see happening.

8 more spots in 3 games. And that assumes other teams don’t climb.

Nova is up like 8 or 9 spots from 2 days ago.

There’s plenty of room to tank or rise. If Butler continues to show no pulse they can fall.

As for Hall, every spot matters for their overall metrics not necessarily their quad.

[Its DJOver]

8 more spots in 3 games. And that assumes other teams don’t climb.

Nova is up like 8 or 9 spots from 2 days ago.

There’s plenty of room to tank or rise. If Butler continues to show no pulse they can fall.

As for Hall, every spot matters for their overall metrics not necessarily their quad.

Yes, but look at who they're playing.  They have a bye this weekend and then close with an X team whose season is just as over as theirs.  Even then, it would likely take another StJ type blow out in NY for them to drop out of the top 75.  Possible sure, but I don't see it happening.  There's nothing better for a losing streak than playing DePaul.

[PGsHeroes32]

Yes, but look at who they're playing.  They have a bye this weekend and then close with an X team whose season is just as over as theirs.  Even then, it would likely take another StJ type blow out in NY for them to drop out of the top 75.  Possible sure, but I don't see it happening.  There's nothing better for a losing streak than playing DePaul.

Yes if they do their job vs DePaul they should be ok.

But god forbid they only win by like 15. It opens it for two more blow outs.

[Its DJOver]

Yes if they do their job vs DePaul they should be ok.

But god forbid they only win by like 15. It opens it for two more blow outs.

Teal?

I'm sure Mr. N will tell us, but I would only expect the line to be around 10. I don't remember our NET dropping that much when we only won by 13 in Chicago.  Really, it would take a loss there for me to actually be worried about BU, there's just not enough time left IMO.

[PGsHeroes32]

Teal?

I'm sure Mr. N will tell us, but I would only expect the line to be around 10. I don't remember our NET dropping that much when we only won by 13 in Chicago.  Really, it would take a loss there for me to actually be worried about BU, there's just not enough time left IMO.

X won by 34 and went up 2

Butler winning by 15ish is just going to hold serve.

Where again, if they continue to blow against teams with a pulse can see them drop 8 spots quite quickly

[Its DJOver]

X won by 34 and went up 2

Butler winning by 15ish is just going to hold serve.

Where again, if they continue to blow against teams with a pulse can see them drop 8 spots quite quickly

But all we need is them to hold serve, they don't need to climb anywhere to get to Q1/Q2, just stop the fall.  When  DePaul hosted Nova the line was 10.5. PC, 8.5. SH, 10.5. X, 13.5. If BU only wins by 10, their ranking will likely not change at all. Then, as long as they either win, or keep it close against X, their ranking will only marginally move. Then do it again (most likely against X) in NY. They could easily go 1-2 to close the year and still finish with an NET better than 75.

[PGsHeroes32]

But all we need is them to hold serve, they don't need to climb anywhere to get to Q1/Q2, just stop the fall.  When  DePaul hosted Nova the line was 10.5. PC, 8.5. SH, 10.5. X, 13.5. If BU only wins by 10, their ranking will likely not change at all. Then, as long as they either win, or keep it close against X, their ranking will only marginally move. Then do it again (most likely against X) in NY. They could easily go 1-2 to close the year and still finish with an NET better than 75.

Correct. And it’s why they probably are fineS

But again, the issue is if they just hold service vs DePaul. With the way they are playing vs everyone else. Staying at 68ish has them toeing the line.

The danger is catching X when all 3 guards are great. Best thing they have going for them is it would have to likely be the same team X that crushes them twice. Rather than two diff teams.

[Its DJOver]

Correct. And it’s why they probably are fineS

But again, the issue is if they just hold service vs DePaul. With the way they are playing vs everyone else. Staying at 68ish has them toeing the line.

The danger is catching X when all 3 guards are great. Best thing they have going for them is it would have to likely be the same team X that crushes them twice. Rather than two diff teams.

How they are playing vs "everyone else" isn't quite accurate though, it's just the blowout.  When they lost to us by 6 (the line was 3.5), their NET didn't move.  When they lost @SH by 12 (the line was 5.5) their NET dropped by one.  As long as they don't have a CU or StJ type blow out they'll be fine.  Also, considering that X has one non DePaul win since Jan I think the chances that they blow BU out in Indy are slim.  Again, it would take them losing to DePaul to actually be worried about them.