Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets

[mugrad_89]

Looking at the team sheet today it seems to me that Marquette fans should become pretty big Villanova and Seton Hall fans over the next few weeks.

Sitting at 78 and 79 respectively, if either or both move up to 75 or better by selection/seeding time Marquettes Q2 road win turns into Q1 and their Q3 home win turns into a Q2.
Every little bit helps.

Problem is they play each other @SH on Tuesday, so best case scenario is that only one of the 2 gets into the top 75

Of the two, Villanova is the one trending in the right direction.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Marquette's NET is 13 Monday

[brewcity77]

Looking at the team sheet today it seems to me that Marquette fans should become pretty big Villanova and Seton Hall fans over the next few weeks.

Sitting at 78 and 79 respectively, if either or both move up to 75 or better by selection/seeding time Marquettes Q2 road win turns into Q1 and their Q3 home win turns into a Q2.
Every little bit helps.

Problem is they play each other @SH on Tuesday, so best case scenario is that only one of the 2 gets into the top 75

Honestly, four teams not in the field could determine the 2-seed line. NET #73 Colorado, #75 Washington State, #78 Villanova, and #80 Seton Hall.

Currently, Arizona has a Q1 and Q2 win against the first two and a Q2 loss. UCLA has a 4-0 record in Q1+2. Marquette is also 4-0, but they are Q2+3 games. If the Pac-12 teams fell outside the top-75, it would drop those games a quadrant and if Villanova and Seton Hall climbed into the top-75 they would all move games up a quadrant. The biggest drawback is Villanova and Seton Hall play each other this week, so they are more relying on other teams to fall (Drake, UCF, and Virginia Tech bear watching) than being able to both climb up with a single result.

Here's the current and possible Q1+2 records:

Current UCLA: 7-4 Q1 / 14-4 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2
Current Arizona: 7-2 Q1 / 13-5 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2
Current Marquette: 5-5 Q1 / 9-6 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2

And if the P12/BE teams flipped...

Possible UCLA: 5-4 Q1 / 12-4 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2
Possible Arizona: 6-2 Q1 / 12-4 Q1+2 / 1 loss outside Q1+2
Possible Marquette: 7-5 Q1 / 11-6 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2

It might not be enough to move Marquette ahead of them, but it certainly puts the resumes on more level footing,

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 26, 2023
New  Old
8   8   UConn   
13   13   Marquette   
16   16   Creighton   
25   24   Xavier   
37   39   Providence   
78   78   Villanova   
80   79   Seton Hall   
97   97   St. John's
124   122   Butler   
166   166   DePaul   
227   222   Georgetown   
February 27 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[mugrad_89]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 26, 2023
New  Old
8   8   UConn   
13   13   Marquette   
16   16   Creighton   
25   24   Xavier   
37   39   Providence   
78   78   Villanova   
80   79   Seton Hall   
97   97   St. John's
124   122   Butler   
166   166   DePaul   
227   222   Georgetown   
February 27 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

C'mon Nova!!!

[cheebs09]

C'mon Nova!!!

And Seton Hall. Would be great to get both as Q1 road wins and Q2 home wins.

[mugrad_89]

And Seton Hall. Would be great to get both as Q1 road wins and Q2 home wins.

Agreed but I don't have a lot of confidence in the Hall.

[DoctorV]

There's a few routes here.

1- Pre BET:
They play each other in Jersey, then SH at Providence and Nova hosts UConn.
  A) for the extremely hopeful we would want a close non-needle moving game on Tuesday when they play each other and then both teams win as underdogs on Saturday and they would BOTH likely get into the top 75.
  B) for the less hopeful crowd you'd want one of them to win in blowout fashion on Tuesday and then win again Saturday or just keep it close.

Either way, in scenario B if one team wins in a blowout on Tuesday they are the only one likely to get into the top 75 so root for them.

2- in the BET:
They are essentially locked into the 6/7 seeds so they play bottom feeders DePaul and Gtown in rd 1, must win game for both in the hope for top 75 as well as keeping their season alive.
Then they get the 2 and 3 seed so a win there would probably do it as well.

Pre BET seems more important here, because remember we've discussed that most of the seeding happens earlier in the week for the protected seeds so things could be locked in place by Thursday next week.

We've discussed when the committee meets before but I need help from Brew here since I don't recall.
Brew, can you go thru the process as you know if with regards to day the committee meets and the order they go through selection, seeding, etc.
that's always insightful data

[Herman Cain]

Big East Poll Rankings February 27, 2023
AP
6. MU
14. U Conn
19.X
20. Cooley & Company
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton

Coaches
6. MU
17. X
18. U Conn
20. Cooley & Company
23. Creighton

[wisblue]

There's a few routes here.

1- Pre BET:
They play each other in Jersey, then SH at Providence and Nova hosts UConn.
  A) for the extremely hopeful we would want a close non-needle moving game on Tuesday when they play each other and then both teams win as underdogs on Saturday and they would BOTH likely get into the top 75.
  B) for the less hopeful crowd you'd want one of them to win in blowout fashion on Tuesday and then win again Saturday or just keep it close.

Either way, in scenario B if one team wins in a blowout on Tuesday they are the only one likely to get into the top 75 so root for them.

2- in the BET:
They are essentially locked into the 6/7 seeds so they play bottom feeders DePaul and Gtown in rd 1, must win game for both in the hope for top 75 as well as keeping their season alive.
Then they get the 2 and 3 seed so a win there would probably do it as well.

Pre BET seems more important here, because remember we've discussed that most of the seeding happens earlier in the week for the protected seeds so things could be locked in place by Thursday next week.

We've discussed when the committee meets before but I need help from Brew here since I don't recall.
Brew, can you go thru the process as you know if with regards to day the committee meets and the order they go through selection, seeding, etc.
that's always insightful data

For anyone who is interested in details on how the Selection Committee operates, I would recommend this item from the NCAA website:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-11-07/how-field-68-di-mens-teams-picked-march-madness-each-season

The text on this page is accompanied by four videos that describe (1) the general principles guiding the committee, and the various data that the committee receives for its consideration, (2) how the Committee selects the 36 at large teams that join the 32 automatic qualifiers in the NCAA field, (3) how the Committee develops the seed list that ranks the 68 teams from 1-68, and (4) how the teams are placed from the seed list into the bracket, taking into consideration the bracketing principles that require things like separating teams from the same conference so they don't meet too early in the tournament, and placing teams as close as possible to their natural home areas.

The videos are generally pretty dry, but they do help to understand the specific steps the committee follows.I especially enjoyed the step by step example of how teams are placed from the seed list into the bracket. It serves as a reminder that, when geographic and conference factors are taken into account, teams are not placed in the bracket precisely as they would be if the seed list were followed blindly.

I didn't catch from the videos any specific dates on which the Committee completes selection and seeding. But they do say that preliminary seed lists are developed before the field is final, but that placing teams in a bracket is not done until late Saturday or Sunday.

One broad takeaway I got from this is a reminder that, when all is said and done, the final selections and seedings are done by humans and not by computers. While the Committee members get a lot of data about teams being considered (including information from members that monitor and gather information from conferences and report that information to the committee) there does not appear to be any mandate to the members about how they apply that data in ranking teams.
Committee members are left to decide for themselves which are the "best" teams when voting on selection and seeding. Bracketologists do their best to predict how the Committee will seed teams based on what they have done in the past but it is impossible to determine whether one factor will carry more weight than another.

One specific aspect of the seeding process that I find interesting is the "scrubbing" of the seed list that the Committee does before it is made final. The process is described in detail in the Seeding video, but the essence of it is to go through the list one by one to ensure that the Committee is satisfied the two teams should not be flipped. This seems to be the process in which a head to head game between two teams might become a significant factor in placing one team over another (eg, Marquette over Baylor) if the teams land on consecutive places on the seed list.

When I look at this whole process with all of the layers of voting that involve members rating teams from 1-8 based on who they think are the "best" teams, I am even more convinced that some of the minutiae that fans can obsess over, like whether a particular game falls into Quad 1 or Quad 2, or the margin of victory in a particular game, really has extremely little impact when the members vote. If a member wants to put weight on the fact that a team won a conference championship, there is nothing stopping them from doing that.

[WhiteTrash]

Thanks Blue. That makes sense especially in light of the early reveal. Clearly NET does not move the needle much.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Marquette's NET is 13 Tuesday

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 27, 2023
New  Old
8   8   UConn   
13   13   Marquette   
16   16   Creighton   
25   25   Xavier   
37   37   Providence   
78   78   Villanova   
80   80   Seton Hall   
97   97   St. John's
123   124   Butler   
166   166   DePaul   
226   227   Georgetown   
February 28 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[mugrad_89]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 27, 2023
New  Old
8   8   UConn   
13   13   Marquette   
16   16   Creighton   
25   25   Xavier   
37   37   Providence   
78   78   Villanova   
80   80   Seton Hall   
97   97   St. John's
123   124   Butler   
166   166   DePaul   
226   227   Georgetown   
February 28 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

Dammit - why aren't we moving up?????  👀🙄

[Newsdreams]

Dammit - why aren't we moving up?????  👀🙄

Because the NET hates us

[tower912]

Algorithm specifically designed to hate MU.   

[mugrad_89]

Algorithm specifically designed to hate MU.

Everybody hates us!!!  😤

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 28, 2023
New Old
8   8   UConn
13   13   Marquette   
15   16   Creighton   
25   25   Xavier   
38   37   Providence   
76   78   Villanova   
84   80   Seton Hall   
98   97   St. John's
128   123   Butler   
166   166   DePaul   
225   226   Georgetown   
March 1 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 28, 2023
New Old
8   8   UConn
13   13   Marquette   
15   16   Creighton   
25   25   Xavier   
38   37   Providence   
76   78   Villanova   
84   80   Seton Hall   
98   97   St. John's
128   123   Butler   
166   166   DePaul   
225   226   Georgetown   
March 1 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

So Nova is now 1 spot away from being another Q1 win.

[goldeneagle91114]

So Nova is now 1 spot away from being another Q1 win.

Come on Nova!! We really need them to upset UConn on Saturday!

[cheebs09]

Come on Nova!! We really need them to upset UConn on Saturday!

Don't even need an upset. Just to play better than expected.

[Herman Cain]

 Big East NET rankings as of games of March 1,2023
New  Old

7   8   UConn   
13   13   Marquette   
14   15   Creighton   
19   25   Xavier   
40   38   Providence   
76   76   Villanova   
85   84   Seton Hall   
98   98   St. John's
129   128   Butler   
173   166   DePaul   
231   225   Georgetown   
March 2 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

[mugrad_89]

Big East NET rankings as of games of March 1,2023
New  Old

7   8   UConn   
13   13   Marquette   
14   15   Creighton   
19   25   Xavier   
40   38   Providence   
76   76   Villanova   
85   84   Seton Hall   
98   98   St. John's
129   128   Butler   
173   166   DePaul   
231   225   Georgetown   
March 2 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus

Nice to see Creighton get rewarded for pummeling a beyond awful Georgetown team.  🧐

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Nice to see Creighton get rewarded for pummeling a beyond awful Georgetown team.  🧐

I mean they won by 40. 40 point wins against high majors are always at least a little impressive