MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Herman Cain on November 06, 2022, 08:58:43 PM
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Big East Poll Rankings as of October 25,2022
AP
9. Creighton
16. Nova
Others Receiving Votes:
U-Conn, X
Coaches
9. Creighton
17. Nova
Others receiving votes:
U-Conn, Cooley& Company, X
NET comes out later in year
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Big East Poll Rankings as of November 14,2022
AP
10. Creighton
25.U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
Nova , X, The Hall
Coaches
9. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
U Conn , Nova , X
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Big East Poll Rankings November 21, 2022
AP
10.Creighton
20. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
X ,Nova
Coaches
8. Creighton
22.U Conn
Others receiving Votes
X, Nova, MU
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Big East Poll Rankings November 21, 2022
AP
7.Creighton
8. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Johnnies
Coaches
6.U Conn
7.Creighton
Others receiving Votes
X, The Johnnies
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Big East Poll Rankings November 21, 2022
AP
7.Creighton
8. U Conn
Last Poll Appearance By Team:
Creighton, November 28, 2022
Connecticut, November 28, 2022
Villanova, October 17, 2022
Providence, March 14, 2022
Marquette, February 7, 2022
Xavier, February 7, 2022
Seton Hall, January 10, 2022
Butler, March 18, 2020
St. John's, January 7, 2019
Georgetown, March 16, 2015
DePaul, November 20, 2000
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Last Poll Appearance By Team:
Creighton, November 28, 2022
Connecticut, November 28, 2022
Villanova, October 17, 2022
Providence, March 14, 2022
Marquette, February 7, 2022
Xavier, February 7, 2022
Seton Hall, January 10, 2022
Butler, March 18, 2020
St. John's, January 7, 2019
Georgetown, March 16, 2015
DePaul, November 20, 2000
In other words, DePaul hasn't been ranked since 5 years before it joined the Big East. How time flies!
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In other words, DePaul hasn't been ranked since 5 years before it joined the Big East. How time flies!
Rebate?
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Purdue vaulted to No. 5 in the AP poll - one spot ahead of Baylor.
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Purdue vaulted to No. 5 in the AP poll - one spot ahead of Baylor.
That’s quite the poll vault.
It a long season, but if they keep this up I was way off that they are an 8-10 seed type team.
I wasn’t extremely impressed by their young guards and Marquette looked better than them most of that game, but as Shaka said Painter is a wizard
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That’s quite the poll vault.
It a long season, but if they keep this up I was way off that they are an 8-10 seed type team.
I wasn’t extremely impressed by their young guards and Marquette looked better than them most of that game, but as Shaka said Painter is a wizard
Samsies. I thought they would be a team that earned a 6-10 seed but was playing like a 4 seed by the end of the season. Keep this up and they'll be a 1 or 2 seed.
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Samsies. I thought they would be a team that earned a 6-10 seed but was playing like a 4 seed by the end of the season. Keep this up and they'll be a 1 or 2 seed.
Maybe he’ll make a Final 4
Wonder how scoop would view Painter’s tenure at Purdue with the same results at Marquette without a Final 4
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Big East Rankings as of Games of December 4, 2022
UConn 2
Creighton 33
Marquette 37
Xavier 48
Butler 63
St. John's 71
Seton Hall 121
Providence 145
Villanova 160
DePaul 161
Georgetown 250
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Big East Poll Rankings December 5, 2022
AP
5. U Conn
21. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
MU,X
Coaches
5. U Conn
21. Creighton
Others receiving Votes
MU,X
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 5, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
32 33 Creighton
37 37 Marquette
46 48 Xavier
62 63 Butler
71 71 St. John's
119 121 Seton Hall
144 145 Providence
160 161 DePaul
165 160 Villanova
248 250 Georgetown
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 5, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
32 33 Creighton
37 37 Marquette
46 48 Xavier
62 63 Butler
71 71 St. John's
119 121 Seton Hall
144 145 Providence
160 161 DePaul
165 160 Villanova
248 250 Georgetown
Hey alright Georgetown! Positive movement!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 5, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
32 33 Creighton
37 37 Marquette
46 48 Xavier
62 63 Butler
71 71 St. John's
119 121 Seton Hall
144 145 Providence
160 161 DePaul
165 160 Villanova
248 250 Georgetown
Yikes
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we only dropped 1 spot after last night. whew.
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This really is a 4 bid max league this year eh?
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This really is a 4 bid max league this year eh?
I would say 6 is the absolute max (without a surprise BET champ) but a lot would have to break correctly in conference play. I think it ends up being a 4-5 bid league
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I would say 6 is the absolute max (without a surprise BET champ) but a lot would have to break correctly in conference play. I think it ends up being a 4-5 bid league
Marquette has been about as bad as you can possibly be in Big East Tournaments as a whole. This team has a feel of a team that could get hot enough in a 3 to 4 day period to actually make some noise for once.
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Marquette has been about as bad as you can possibly be in Big East Tournaments as a whole. This team has a feel of a team that could get hot enough in a 3 to 4 day period to actually make some noise for once.
Might be playing must win games by then, hey?
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Might be playing must win games by then, hey?
You are obsessed with negatively commenting on everything I post. Strange but true.
And yes. If this team loses games like the ND game then the Conference Tournament games will be must win.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 6,2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
31 32 Creighton
38 37 Marquette
43 46 Xavier
56 62 Butler
73 71 St. John's
126 119 Seton Hall
150 160 DePaul
151 144 Providence
163 165 Villanova
241 248 Georgetown
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This really is a 4 bid max league this year eh?
I'd place the over/under at 4.5 right now. 3-6 are all possible, with the high end being most likely if Villanova is a massively different team with Whitmore and Moore back or if an unexpected BET winner emerges.
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You are obsessed with negatively commenting on everything I post. Strange but true.
And yes. If this team loses games like the ND game then the Conference Tournament games will be must win.
AKA Notre Dame is not a must win game. Thank you.
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AKA Notre Dame is not a must win game. Thank you.
Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)
The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.
Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.
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Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)
The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.
Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.
But that isn't a must win game. Must win, means you can't lose.
If we lose to ND, and somehow go 14-6 in conference play, then the ND game wasn't "must win".
No game before March is "must win".
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Well, hopefully we don't have a must win game until the NCAAT
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No game before March is "must win".
False. 97.3% false.
If we are to join Indiana, North Carolina, UCLA and San Francisco in the blue blood territory of being undefeated all season long, which better be everyone's desire and expectation for Marquette basketball, then every single game is a must win.
Wake me up next year, when we start our run again.
To the extent you mean no game before March is a "must win" now that we have already lost and the season is irreparably broken with only the slight consolation prize of maybe making the tournament left, then maybe I agree, thus the adjustment in the 97.3% false figure above.
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Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)
The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.
Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.
You just laid out exactly how it's not a must win game.
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It's a must win IF we don't want to have to win 11-12 games in Big East play and/or win the BET in order to make the NCAAT. Which of course means that it isn't a true must win, just a conditional one.
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Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)
The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.
Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.
If you lose to ND but win 2 or 3 games against Creighton and UConn, you are OK.
If you beat ND and lose all 8 games against Creighton, UConn, Xavier and Nova, you are likely not OK.
Win totals don't matter as much as who you are beating.
Have a bubble record and NET rating, they will look to see who you beat. Creighton, UConn and X are much more attractive than a win at ND.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 7, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
31 31 Creighton
42 38 Marquette
44 43 Xavier
58 56 Butler
60 73 St. John's
122 126 Seton Hall
128 151 Providence
151 163 Villanova
166 150 DePaul
229 241 Georgetown
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I’m a day late, but UW moved into Q2 and Baylor moved into Q1.
Mississippi State and Purdue are still in the top 5.
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Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)
The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.
Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.
Is the notre dame game must win or can’t lose ?
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Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.
At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.
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Is the notre dame game must win or can’t lose ?
Yes
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Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.
At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.
Amen.
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Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.
At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.
I guess we can all stop watching for the rest of the season if they lose Sunday since there will be no chance of making the tourney, right?
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I guess we can all stop watching for the rest of the season if they lose Sunday since there will be no chance of making the tourney, right?
RGV
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If you lose to ND but win 2 or 3 games against Creighton and UConn, you are OK.
If you beat ND and lose all 8 games against Creighton, UConn, Xavier and Nova, you are likely not OK.
Win totals don't matter as much as who you are beating.
Have a bubble record and NET rating, they will look to see who you beat. Creighton, UConn and X are much more attractive than a win at ND.
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We need road wins and the first one is hard to get.
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Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.
At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.
MOPE
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Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.
At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.
100% true Notre Dame is winnable.
But.... That stat is a purposeful dilution of data in a small sample size sport to propagate some type of agenda to make this game seem bigger than it is. Shaka was 6-3 in games "away from MKE" before that ten game stretch. 7-12 away from home is a perfectly reasonable record.
Additionally, this years team is 1-2 away from home, but the 2 loses are against teams who are Top 5 in the NET. Those loses were by a combined total of 8 points.
Lastly, the notion that tempo plays a roll in wins or losses is ridiculous. In 2021-22, Marquette's Tempo was slower in wins than it was in losses. And it was within 0.1 when you turn Creighton's OT game into a 68 possession game.
The reason why Marquette's 2022-23 loses are in slow games is because the good teams we have played, play slow. No other reason. If we played @Arizona and against Illinois and lost would you say its because "Arizona and Illinois play fast"?
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100% true Notre Dame is winnable.
But.... That stat is a purposeful dilution of data in a small sample size sport to propagate some type of agenda to make this game seem bigger than it is. Shaka was 6-3 in games "away from MKE" before that ten game stretch. 7-12 away from home is a perfectly reasonable record.
Additionally, this years team is 1-2 away from home, but the 2 loses are against teams who are Top 5 in the NET. Those loses were by a combined total of 8 points.
Lastly, the notion that tempo plays a roll in wins or losses is ridiculous. In 2021-22, Marquette's Tempo was slower in wins than it was in losses. And it was within 0.1 when you turn Creighton's OT game into a 68 possession game.
The reason why Marquette's 2022-23 loses are in slow games is because the good teams we have played, play slow. No other reason. If we played @Arizona and against Illinois and lost would you say its because "Arizona and Illinois play fast"?
If tempo doesn't matter then why is Shaka and Nevada Smith predicating it in their offensively philosophy? And trying to limit it defensively? Odd observation if I read it right.
As to my agenda it's the same as other coaches once MU made it through the Big East the first time: SLOOOW MU down and make them play in the half court. Shaka's counter jab is to do the opposite (worked vs GT and Baylor).
With no yet established Alphas (Kam getting close), MU needs to win these close away games, not go 1-9. For the record, I am a COLE knowing full well this saw-toothed start was to be expected. However, Scoop making excuses before this game is an interesting take from the Intelligencia. It's always attack the poster here versus understanding what opposing coaches are trying to do.
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If tempo doesn't matter then why is Shaka and Nevada Smith predicating it in their offensively philosophy? And trying to limit it defensively? Odd observation if I read it right.
As to my agenda it's the same as other coaches once MU made it through the Big East the first time: SLOOOW MU down and make them play in the half court. Shaka's counter jab is to do the opposite (worked vs GT and Baylor).
With no yet established Alphas (Kam getting close), MU needs to win these close away games, not go 1-9. For the record, I am a COLE knowing full well this saw-toothed start was to be expected. However, Scoop making excuses before this game is an interesting take from the Intelligencia. It's always attack the poster here versus understanding what opposing coaches are trying to do.
Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”. And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).
But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.
Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.
Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.
Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.
Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.
There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.
As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.
I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).
Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)
As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.
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Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”. And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).
But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.
Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.
Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.
Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.
Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.
There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.
As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.
I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).
Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)
As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.
Good board discussion. Thanks for the in-depth response as that adds to the discussion.
That said, I was reacting to below and we will continue to disagree. I hope I am proven wrong Sunday.
Lastly, the notion that tempo plays a roll in wins or losses is ridiculous.
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But that isn't a must win game. Must win, means you can't lose.
If we lose to ND, and somehow go 14-6 in conference play, then the ND game wasn't "must win".
No game before March is "must win".
It may be irrelevant to actually making NCAA tournament. Assuming we get a bid either way it is a must win for seeding. The ultimate goal is to be relevant again in the NCAA tournament, which means actually winning games in tournament. Seeding matters.
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It may be irrelevant to actually making NCAA tournament. Assuming we get a bid either way it is a must win for seeding. The ultimate goal is to be relevant again in the NCAA tournament, which means actually winning games in tournament. Seeding matters.
I'm going to buy you a slide rule.
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Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”. And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).
But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.
Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.
Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.
Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.
Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.
There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.
As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.
I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).
Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)
As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.
See attached
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Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.
At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.
The whole "must win" thing ends up feeding a war of semantics, and I'll let others continue to have fun with that.
Otherwise, I agree with what you're saying here.
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Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”. And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).
But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.
Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.
Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.
Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.
Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.
There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.
As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.
I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).
Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)
As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.
This is such a fantastic post. Thank you.
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Big East NET rankings as of games December 8, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
32 31 Creighton
42 42 Marquette
44 44 Xavier
60 58 Butler
64 60 St. John's
116 122 Seton Hall
127 128 Providence
153 151 Villanova
172 166 DePaul
229 229 Georgetown
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See attached
Correction: "total game tempo has little to no causation as to the results of Marquette Games"
Also look at last year
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Great post jfp61. Nice breakdown and good follow up with the distinction that causation and correlation are ≠
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Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”. And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).
But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.
Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.
Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.
Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.
Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.
There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.
As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.
I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).
Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)
As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.
Great post. jfp61 is a Scoop MVP.
Dr. Blackheart also is a high quality poster. Good discussion
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https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1715228-kem-pomeroys-new-stat-affirms-that-quick-offense-is-good-offense.amp.html
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Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”. And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).
But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.
Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.
Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.
Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.
Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.
There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.
As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.
I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).
Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)
As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.
TL;DR
Can I get the tempo-free post?
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There are websites that do they must win for you https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2023
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https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1715228-kem-pomeroys-new-stat-affirms-that-quick-offense-is-good-offense.amp.html
Offensive tempo is 100% good for offensive efficiency. Dunks, Layups, and Open threes are good. BUT,
Adjusted individual game tempo doesn't matter. Otherwise there would be a correlation between Adjusted Tempo and a Teams Adjusted Efficiency Margins. (Bartorvik uses BARTHAG instead of Efficiency Margin, AND of the analytical sites Bartorvik favors Offense over Defense more than most.)
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(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/OcQQ56BAPQo/maxresdefault.jpg)
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My folks had one of those that I drove. Piece o junk.
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See: Virginia (ugh, and occasionally uw-Madison).
End.
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Offensive tempo is 100% good for offensive efficiency. Dunks, Layups, and Open threes are good. BUT,
Adjusted individual game tempo doesn't matter. Otherwise there would be a correlation between Adjusted Tempo and a Teams Adjusted Efficiency Margins. (Bartorvik uses BARTHAG instead of Efficiency Margin, AND of the analytical sites Bartorvik favors Offense over Defense more than most.)
As JB alluded to with Virginia, Wisconsin and ND, there is no strong correlation as teams pick different styles of play. MU tries to play the style (fast offense, slow defense) referenced in that Pomeroy article. All styles can be successful.
The question in my mind to be answered is can MU win consistently against match ups who try to counter Shaka's philosophy (which as a fan, I love)? I still feel Buzz was the master in adopting and adjusting, season to season, game to game. Thus, so many one possession games with mostly success.
The good news: We will find out Sunday (which back to topic, makes me feel this is a must win heading into conference... right before Shaka's third round against BE teams).
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There are websites that do they must win for you https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2023
According to this Bart guy and his computer, Marquette should be the favorite to win the next 7 tips.
How about that
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Just the tips, just for a second, just to see how it feels.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 9, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
33 32 Creighton
42 42 Marquette
45 44 Xavier
60 60 Butler
64 64 St. John's
114 116 Seton Hall
123 127 Providence
150 153 Villanova
170 172 DePaul
227 229 Georgetown
December 10,2022 Team Sheet MU is number 42
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 10, 2022
New Old
1 2 UConn
39 45 Xavier
43 42 Marquette
44 33 Creighton
51 60 Butler
70 64 St. John's
103 123 Providence
115 150 Villanova
119 114 Seton Hall
156 170 DePaul
242 227 Georgetown
December 11 Team Sheet . MU is 43
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
30 43 Marquette
40 39 Xavier
46 44 Creighton
51 51 Butler
70 70 St. John's
89 119 Seton Hall
103 103 Providence
112 115 Villanova
150 156 DePaul
240 242 Georgetown
December 12 Team Sheets . MU is 30
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
30 43 Marquette
40 39 Xavier
46 44 Creighton
51 51 Butler
70 70 St. John's
89 119 Seton Hall
103 103 Providence
112 115 Villanova
150 156 DePaul
240 242 Georgetown
December 12 Team Sheets . MU is 30
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
That's a pretty bad looking resume for the Big East. I trust KenPom most and the NET rankings are a pretty big departure from KenPom for other Big East teams besides UCONN and MU
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2022
New Old
240 242 Georgetown
A Syracuse "bump"...
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That's a pretty bad looking resume for the Big East. I trust KenPom most and the NET rankings are a pretty big departure from KenPom for other Big East teams besides UCONN and MU
Hopefully Providence and Nova can get below 100. Less opportunities for big wins and more opportunities for bad losses this year. Marquette will have to take care of business with the lower-rated teams.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
30 43 Marquette
40 39 Xavier
46 44 Creighton
51 51 Butler
70 70 St. John's
89 119 Seton Hall
103 103 Providence
112 115 Villanova
150 156 DePaul
240 242 Georgetown
December 12 Team Sheets . MU is 30
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
I’d be more than a little surprised if Villanova actually finishes 9th.
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Just the tips, just for a second, just to see how it feels.
Haha
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I’d be more than a little surprised if Villanova actually finishes 9th.
Cam Whitmore is a major difference maker. As he rounds into form, Nova will be a lot better going forward.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of December 12, 2022
AP
3. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
MU,X, Creighton
Coaches
3. U Conn
Others receiving Votes
MU, Creighton ,X
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Big East Poll Rankings as of December 12, 2022
AP
3. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes
MU,X, Creighton
Coaches
3. U Conn
Others receiving Votes
MU, Creighton ,X
That's just sad.
Hopefully, we'll get another team in there next week.
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Cam Whitmore is a major difference maker. As he rounds into form, Nova will be a lot better going forward.
In 3 games he has a 122 ORtg on 30% usage; big DR%, high stl%, low TOs, doesn’t foul.
First game was bad. Last two amazing. No need to round into form - he’s next level right now
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Mississippi State is 6th in the Net rankings. No team they have played so far, has scored as many points against them as Marquette did. And that number is 55.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 12, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
31 30 Marquette
41 40 Xavier
50 46 Creighton
51 51 Butler
70 70 St. John's
89 89 Seton Hall
102 103 Providence
111 112 Villanova
152 150 DePaul
244 240 Georgetown
December 13 Team Sheets . MU is 31
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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In 3 games he has a 122 ORtg on 30% usage; big DR%, high stl%, low TOs, doesn’t foul.
First game was bad. Last two amazing. No need to round into form - he’s next level right now
I'd be OK with him declaring early and leaving immediately, a la Chones.
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Big East East NET rankings as of games of December 13, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
33 31 Marquette
42 41 Xavier
48 50 Creighton
51 51 Butler
69 70 St. John's
90 89 Seton Hall
100 102 Providence
112 111 Villanova
149 152 DePaul
245 244 Georgetown
December 14 Team Sheets. MU is 33 https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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245 244 Georgetown
This is just sad. I know Ewing is a legend, but how long can Georgetown let this go on? Can the rest of the Big East have an intervention with Lee Reed?
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This is just sad. I know Ewing is a legend, but how long can Georgetown let this go on? Can the rest of the Big East have an intervention with Lee Reed?
Georgetown is currently in its Bob Dukiet phase
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Rick Pitino should be call #1, 2 and 3,
Then I call TJO,
Then Billy Donovan.
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Rick Pitino should be call #1, 2 and 3,
Then I call TJO,
Then Billy Donovan.
Pitino may say yes. The others would laugh and hang up.
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Rick Pitino should be call #1, 2 and 3,
Then I call TJO,
Then Billy Donovan.
As everybody knows, ya gotta at least call Billy Donovan!
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He has a job now... he didn't before...
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Hopefully Providence and Nova can get below 100. Less opportunities for big wins and more opportunities for bad losses this year. Marquette will have to take care of business with the lower-rated teams.
Just win it is the only stat that counts.
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Georgetown is currently in its Bob Dukiet phase
I get what you're saying, but Marquette only tolerated Dukiet for three years:
- 1986 - 16-13
- 1987 - 10-18
- 1988 - 13-15
- Total: 39-46 (.459)
The Hoyas are into year six of the Ewing debacle:
- 2017 - 15-15 (5-13)
- 2018 - 19-14 (9-9)
- 2019 - 15-17 (5-13)
- 2020 - 13-13 (7-9)
- 2021 - 6-25 (0-19)
- 2022 - 5-6 and counting
- Total: 73-90 (.448) (26-63) (.292)
One could argue that Ewing wishes he had the success that Dukiet had at Marquette.
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I get what you're saying, but Marquette only tolerated Dukiet for three years:
- 1986 - 16-13
- 1987 - 10-18
- 1988 - 13-15
- Total: 39-46 (.459)
They Hoyas are into year six of the Ewing debacle:
- 2017 - 15-15 (5-13)
- 2018 - 19-14 (9-9)
- 2019 - 15-17 (5-13)
- 2020 - 13-13 (7-9)
- 2021 - 6-25 (0-19)
- 2022 - 5-6 and counting
- Total: 73-90 (.448) (26-63) (.292)
One could argue that Ewing wishes he had the success that Dukiet had at Marquette.
Those are some sobering numbers.
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Those are some sobering numbers.
Damn straight. Good freaking grief.
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I get what you're saying, but Marquette only tolerated Dukiet for three years:
- 1986 - 16-13
- 1987 - 10-18
- 1988 - 13-15
- Total: 39-46 (.459)
They Hoyas are into year six of the Ewing debacle:
- 2017 - 15-15 (5-13)
- 2018 - 19-14 (9-9)
- 2019 - 15-17 (5-13)
- 2020 - 13-13 (7-9)
- 2021 - 6-25 (0-19)
- 2022 - 5-6 and counting
- Total: 73-90 (.448) (26-63) (.292)
One could argue that Ewing wishes he had the success that Dukiet had at Marquette.
Good thing they don't need basketball.
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Those are some sobering numbers.
Indeed. Since moving to the Big East in 2005, Marquette has had two losing seasons (13-19 in 2014 and 13-14 in 2020) and four seasons with with a conference record below .500 (4-14 in 2014, 8-10 in 2015, 8-10 in 2019, and 8-11 in 2020). Ewing matched those numbers in his first five years - including last year's total sh*t show. JT3 got fired after posting two consecutive losing seasons. I'm not sure how long Ewing is going to be able to keep cashing those BET Championship checks. If he wasn't a Georgetown legend, he'd surely be out of there by now.
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Ewing is a cautionary tale for both hiring famous alumni and putting any stock in tournament runs (after a disappointing regular season).
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Ewing is a cautionary tale for both hiring famous alumni and putting any stock in tournament runs (after a disappointing regular season).
So was Mullin but at least he got them one above average season
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Those are some sobering numbers.
7 years to judge
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So was Mullin but at least he got them one above average season
He also bowed out gracefully to spare St. John’s the angst of firing a favorite son.
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He also bowed out gracefully to spare St. John’s the angst of firing a favorite son.
Ewing's pay day won't allow him to do the same.
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I can say that I was at Marquette from 86-90—perhaps some of the darkest years ever for Marquette Basketball. Only three years of Dukiet but it felt much, much longer at the time.
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Ewing is a cautionary tale for both hiring famous alumni and putting any stock in tournament runs (after a disappointing regular season).
Yeah, take out that inexplicable run in the BET and the Hoyas would have been 10-13 in 2020-21 (assuming they played to their seed at the BET and still beat Marquette -- ugh!).
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Ewing's pay day won't allow him to do the same.
Yeah, he's making almost four mil a year at Georgetown, but he earned almost $120 million playing basketball. It's not like he needs the money.
Although he once famously told us that he spends a lot, so he needs to make a lot.
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Yeah, he's making almost four mil a year at Georgetown, but he earned almost $120 million playing basketball. It's not like he needs the money.
Although he once famously told us that he spends a lot, so he needs to make a lot.
Cut the $120m down for taxes and paying agents to at least half.
He last played basketball 22 years ago.
Is your suggestion that he should voluntarily give up his paycheck at Georgetown? Why? He's absolutely cooked as a future head coach at college or pros. The best that he can hope for is being stashed on the bench of a pro team, or just call it a career.
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I get what you're saying, but Marquette only tolerated Dukiet for three years:
One could argue that Ewing wishes he had the success that Dukiet had at Marquette.
True. Georgetown has decided to give their Dukiet Years an extended run.
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Cut the $120m down for taxes and paying agents to at least half.
He last played basketball 22 years ago.
Is your suggestion that he should voluntarily give up his paycheck at Georgetown? Why? He's absolutely cooked as a future head coach at college or pros. The best that he can hope for is being stashed on the bench of a pro team, or just call it a career.
Yeah, I'm suggesting that he steps down to stop embarrassing his alma mater. He should be able to comfortably enjoy retirement. He's 60. That's not too young to retire if you are financially able to.
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Cut the $120m down for taxes and paying agents to at least half.
He last played basketball 22 years ago.
Is your suggestion that he should voluntarily give up his paycheck at Georgetown? Why? He's absolutely cooked as a future head coach at college or pros. The best that he can hope for is being stashed on the bench of a pro team, or just call it a career.
There's a million basketball related careers he could be stashed away in with his connections. Then there's always TV/radio which while not a ton would certainly be some nice supplemental income.
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There's a million basketball related careers he could be stashed away in with his connections. Then there's always TV/radio which while not a ton would certainly be some nice supplemental income.
I don't disagree, but those roles probably aren't getting him 4m a year.
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I don't disagree, but those roles probably aren't getting him 4m a year.
Yeah that's definitely true. I guess it comes down to how much he cares about Georgetown. I know if it was me I'd probably have stepped down for MU by now
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There are plenty of embarrassing things that people can earn lots of money doing. It's not always the right thing to take the highest possible money offer out there if it's going to put a giant stain on your legacy. Also, again, it's different to walk away from a $4 million a year gig when you don't already have tens of millions in the bank.
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Yeah that's definitely true. I guess it comes down to how much he cares about Georgetown. I know if it was me I'd probably have stepped down for MU by now
For me, it was would depend on what my current and future financials were looking like.
I'd hate to be such a huge embarrassment, but on the other hand... I'd hate being bankrupt more. ;D
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There are plenty of embarrassing things that people can earn lots of money doing.
Dentist?
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There are plenty of embarrassing things that people can earn lots of money doing. It's not always the right thing to take the highest possible money offer out there if it's going to put a giant stain on your legacy. Also, again, it's different to walk away from a $4 million a year gig when you don't already have tens of millions in the bank.
I don't think there are very many people who are looking at Patrick Ewing any different than they would if he was still sitting around on an NBA bench. And why wouldn't he make as much as he can? It's not on him to make the decision for Georgetown. That's on the administration at Georgetown, particularly in the athletic department.
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I don't think there are very many people who are looking at Patrick Ewing any different than they would if he was still sitting around on an NBA bench. And why wouldn't he make as much as he can? It's not on him to make the decision for Georgetown. That's on the administration at Georgetown, particularly in the athletic department.
WWCMD?
What would Chris Mullen do?
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Dentist?
website moderator
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It's not on him to make the decision for Georgetown. That's on the administration at Georgetown, particularly in the athletic department.
I agree with this entirely. I would hope that Georgetown would initiate the process, but then Patrick would gracefully step down. I've always suspected that this is what happened at SJU.
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For me, it was would depend on what my current and future financials were looking like.
I'd hate to be such a huge embarrassment, but on the other hand... I'd hate being bankrupt more. ;D
Lol if you were spending at the rate that going from 4m to a few hundred K in an NBA office would bankrupt you then maybe it's time to head to H&R Block for some financial planning advice
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Lol if you were spending at the rate that going from 4m to a few hundred K in an NBA office would bankrupt you then maybe it's time to head to H&R Block for some financial planning advice
When you've earned so much money over such a long period of time, you probably get used to living a certain way. When that's dropped by 85% that makes a big difference, even if you're still earning a lot of money and have a lot of money in the bank. If I were approaching my 60s and had kids, I'd probably want to make every penny to make sure my kids and their kids are set for life.
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website moderator
(https://media.tenor.com/XQJ6rBfiOrsAAAAd/laying-down-money.gif)
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When you've earned so much money over such a long period of time, you probably get used to living a certain way. When that's dropped by 85% that makes a big difference, even if you're still earning a lot of money and have a lot of money in the bank. If I were approaching my 60s and had kids, I'd probably want to make every penny to make sure my kids and their kids are set for life.
I mean, I’d assume he’d have adjusted in the FIFTEEN years after he stopped being a highly paid pro and was only making a few hundred K on an NBA bench.
I’m not suggesting he resign from GTown cause he doesn’t need the money or some nonsense, but there is no way he was living from age 40-55 living a “certain way” on the assumption he’d be getting a inflated Alma Mater salary down the road.
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(https://media.tenor.com/XQJ6rBfiOrsAAAAd/laying-down-money.gif)
Now we know who paid Wojo's buyout!
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When you've earned so much money over such a long period of time, you probably get used to living a certain way. When that's dropped by 85% that makes a big difference, even if you're still earning a lot of money and have a lot of money in the bank. If I were approaching my 60s and had kids, I'd probably want to make every penny to make sure my kids and their kids are set for life.
Patrick Ewing made over 112 million before he was 40, 211 million adjusted for inflation.I don’t know exactly what you mean by “living a certain way” but that’s generational wealth unless one throws it away.
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Patrick Ewing made over 112 million before he was 40, 211 million adjusted for inflation.I don’t know exactly what you mean by “living a certain way” but that’s generational wealth unless one throws it away.
Which sometimes young rich people do. Not to mention he had to pay an agent and taxes and was living in NYC. I don’t know how he spent his money, but he wouldn’t be the first person to lose a lot of money when you had a lot of it as a young famous person living in a big market.
I also don’t think it’s in many people’s DNA to just decide to go to their boss and say, “you know what? I stink at this job. I’m going to go back to my old job where I made 15% of what I make now. Sorry for what I did to your company!”
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Like most of us, rich people don't usually walk away from becoming more rich.
I mean, he may be miserable and would do it for his happiness, but he isn't doing it just because.
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Like most of us, rich people don't usually walk away from becoming more rich.
I mean, he may be miserable and would do it for his happiness, but he isn't doing it just because.
I can't think if any reason that he would simply walk away form his job. Loyalty to his alma mater? That's crazy talk. People who have a dream job making tons of money don't typically just walk away. They either get pushed out, or they stay and keep cashing checks. In my first post on this topic I suggested that the Big East have an intervention with Georgetown's AD because the only way Patrick leaves that job is if he's forced out. My point has been that I hope he handles it gracefully when the time comes and steps down instead of making Georgetown actually pull the trigger.
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I think the BE presidents need to have a conversation with their colleague at Georgetown. Remember they still have that goofy structure where the basketball coach reports directly to the president, which worked at a unique time and place 40 years ago, but is just not how you run a modern athletic department.
They have a TV contract negotiation upcoming and I think it would serve everyone's interests to fix that program.
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I think the BE presidents need to have a conversation with their colleague at Georgetown. Remember they still have that goofy structure where the basketball coach reports directly to the president, which worked at a unique time and place 40 years ago, but is just not how you run a modern athletic department.
They have a TV contract negotiation upcoming and I think it would serve everyone's interests to fix that program.
Now that you mention it, I do recall hearing that at some point; I had forgotten. Yes, something needs to be done. It's not good for the Big East for Georgetown to be so shockingly bad.
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I think the BE presidents need to have a conversation with their colleague at Georgetown. Remember they still have that goofy structure where the basketball coach reports directly to the president, which worked at a unique time and place 40 years ago, but is just not how you run a modern athletic department.
They have a TV contract negotiation upcoming and I think it would serve everyone's interests to fix that program.
Yep. This contract negotiation is huge for the stability of the Big East going forward. Georgetown is a major brand and needs to turn this around for the long term health of the league.
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Do they also have an intervention with DePaul's AD? I mean don't want to single out one school with them being able to point at the other and say "well what about them?!"
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Do they also have an intervention with DePaul's AD? I mean don't want to single out one school with them being able to point at the other and say "well what about them?!"
They got rid of their longtime AD and are at least trying. Same with St. John's.
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I think the BE presidents need to have a conversation with their colleague at Georgetown. Remember they still have that goofy structure where the basketball coach reports directly to the president, which worked at a unique time and place 40 years ago, but is just not how you run a modern athletic department.
They have a TV contract negotiation upcoming and I think it would serve everyone's interests to fix that program.
They needed to have that conversation last spring. Negotiations are already in progress. Unless they fire him today and convince Pitino to jump midseason, that ship has sailed.
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Do they also have an intervention with DePaul's AD? I mean don't want to single out one school with them being able to point at the other and say "well what about them?!"
It couldn't hurt, but I don't think it's nearly as important. I think it would be great for the Big East if DePaul had a successful program. But I don't think that a basement dwelling DePaul is nearly as harmful to the Big East's brand as when Georgetown sucks. Georgetown is an OG Big East program and has always been one of the conference's marquee teams. I think it's much more harmful to a conference's brand when a marquee program sucks. We all look at how many teams are ranked each year and how many teams make the tournament. Nobody has expected DePaul to be one of those programs since they entered the Big East. If DePaul were to do that, it'd be gravy; great for the conference, but gravy. With Georgetown, I think they are expected to be in the mix and when they're not it's bad for the conference.
Comparable situation: if Ohio State or Michigan completely sucked, it would hurt the Big Ten's brand far more than Northwestern's continued ineptitude does.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 14, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
32 33 Marquette
40 42 Xavier
47 48 Creighton
50 51 Butler
71 69 St. John's
84 90 Seton Hall
100 100 Providence
109 112 Villanova
159 149 DePaul
244 245 Georgetown
December 15 Team Sheets . MU is 32
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It couldn't hurt, but I don't think it's nearly as important. I think it would be great for the Big East if DePaul had a successful program. But I don't think that a basement dwelling DePaul is nearly as harmful to the Big East's brand as when Georgetown sucks. Georgetown is an OG Big East program and has always been one of the conference's marquee teams. I think it's much more harmful to a conference's brand when a marquee program sucks. We all look at how many teams are ranked each year and how many teams make the tournament. Nobody has expected DePaul to be one of those programs since they entered the Big East. If DePaul were to do that, it'd be gravy; great for the conference, but gravy. With Georgetown, I think they are expected to be in the mix and when they're not it's bad for the conference.
Comparable situation: if Ohio State or Michigan completely sucked, it would hurt the Big Ten's brand far more than Northwestern's continued ineptitude does.
Please define a marquee team in the league outside Villanova and UCONN.
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It couldn't hurt, but I don't think it's nearly as important. I think it would be great for the Big East if DePaul had a successful program. But I don't think that a basement dwelling DePaul is nearly as harmful to the Big East's brand as when Georgetown sucks. Georgetown is an OG Big East program and has always been one of the conference's marquee teams. I think it's much more harmful to a conference's brand when a marquee program sucks. We all look at how many teams are ranked each year and how many teams make the tournament. Nobody has expected DePaul to be one of those programs since they entered the Big East. If DePaul were to do that, it'd be gravy; great for the conference, but gravy. With Georgetown, I think they are expected to be in the mix and when they're not it's bad for the conference.
Comparable situation: if Ohio State or Michigan completely sucked, it would hurt the Big Ten's brand far more than Northwestern's continued ineptitude does.
While I don't disagree with what you're saying let's play devils advocate. Most of Georgetowns brand was born around Ewing and Irverson with a little from Mourning and Mutombo. I don't think that those fairweather fans necessarily have stuck around waiting for Georgetown but rather hopped on what is perceived as the next "cool" program. DePaul on the other hand has the largest alumni base in the big east by a decent bit and the second largest market by a decent bit. If they got their act together it's draw wayyyyy more eyes than Georgetown. Yes, Georgetown has a stronger "return to glory" story than DePaul but that doesn't mean DePaul wouldn't have a similar headline plus bring hundreds of thousands of fans with it. There's a reason Loyola went from the Horizon to the A10 in a blink of an eye.
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It couldn't hurt, but I don't think it's nearly as important. I think it would be great for the Big East if DePaul had a successful program. But I don't think that a basement dwelling DePaul is nearly as harmful to the Big East's brand as when Georgetown sucks. Georgetown is an OG Big East program and has always been one of the conference's marquee teams. I think it's much more harmful to a conference's brand when a marquee program sucks. We all look at how many teams are ranked each year and how many teams make the tournament. Nobody has expected DePaul to be one of those programs since they entered the Big East. If DePaul were to do that, it'd be gravy; great for the conference, but gravy. With Georgetown, I think they are expected to be in the mix and when they're not it's bad for the conference.
Comparable situation: if Ohio State or Michigan completely sucked, it would hurt the Big Ten's brand far more than Northwestern's continued ineptitude does.
This is ridiculous.
The Big East brand has been extremely strong since restructuring, despite the fact that Georgetown has been mostly absent from the headlines over that time. And today's success is not based on the success of the "OG" teams from 40 years ago--the contributions that Xavier, Butler, Creighton and MU bring to the table should not be discounted.
The world has moved on since 1984--Georgetown isn't a marquee team anymore and hasn't been for a long time.
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Please define a marquee team in the league outside Villanova and UCONN.
I'm not sure if you're asking what makes a marquee team or if you're asking who I think are the marquee teams in the Big East are.
On the first point, I'd answer that the marquee teams are the ones that first come to mind when the average fan thinks of the conference. I think that for the Big East, that would historically have been UCONN, Georgetown, Syracuse, and Villanova. St. John's would be right on the edge of that group in my mind.
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This is ridiculous.
The Big East brand has been extremely strong since restructuring, despite the fact that Georgetown has been mostly absent from the headlines over that time. And today's success is not based on the success of the "OG" teams from 40 years ago--the contributions that Xavier, Butler, Creighton and MU bring to the table should not be discounted.
The world has moved on since 1984--Georgetown isn't a marquee team anymore and hasn't been for a long time.
I think that you're probably right. I also think that hurts the Big East's brand. My point in this thread is that Georgetown absolutely sucks and that's bad for the Big East.
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Please define a marquee team in the league outside Villanova and UCONN.
marque(tt)e
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Which sometimes young rich people do. Not to mention he had to pay an agent and taxes and was living in NYC. I don’t know how he spent his money, but he wouldn’t be the first person to lose a lot of money when you had a lot of it as a young famous person living in a big market.
I also don’t think it’s in many people’s DNA to just decide to go to their boss and say, “you know what? I stink at this job. I’m going to go back to my old job where I made 15% of what I make now. Sorry for what I did to your company!”
Stop saying agent fees. The average agent takes 3%. The most the NBAPA allows them to take is 4%.
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I also don’t think it’s in many people’s DNA to just decide to go to their boss and say, “you know what? I stink at this job. I’m going to go back to my old job where I made 15% of what I make now. Sorry for what I did to your company!”
No disagreement with this, especially as it pertains to people in “regular jobs”. But Patrick Ewing was a world class athlete and my impression is he’s a pretty proud man - deservedly so. And he knows things aren’t working. It might be good for everyone involved if he let his alma mater off the hook.
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Stop saying agent fees. The average agent takes 3%. The most the NBAPA allows them to take is 4%.
3% is over $3M.
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Big East Team NET rankings as of games of December 15, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
32 32 Marquette
40 40 Xavier
47 47 Creighton
49 50 Butler
71 71 St. John's
84 84 Seton Hall
100 100 Providence
111 109 Villanova
157 159 DePaul
245 244 Georgetown
December 16 Team Sheets . MU is 32
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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3% is over $3M.
But to squander 122 MM is because of a series of horrendously bad decisions, agent fees have nothing to do with that. Every NBA player pays taxes & agent fees. Not every NBA player goes broke, so it is a very lazy excuse to cite those.
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It couldn't hurt, but I don't think it's nearly as important. I think it would be great for the Big East if DePaul had a successful program. But I don't think that a basement dwelling DePaul is nearly as harmful to the Big East's brand as when Georgetown sucks. Georgetown is an OG Big East program and has always been one of the conference's marquee teams. I think it's much more harmful to a conference's brand when a marquee program sucks. We all look at how many teams are ranked each year and how many teams make the tournament. Nobody has expected DePaul to be one of those programs since they entered the Big East. If DePaul were to do that, it'd be gravy; great for the conference, but gravy. With Georgetown, I think they are expected to be in the mix and when they're not it's bad for the conference.
Comparable situation: if Ohio State or Michigan completely sucked, it would hurt the Big Ten's brand far more than Northwestern's continued ineptitude does.
Georgetown has a higher Big East Q rating than even Villanova. The Big East GOATS were Georgetown, Syracuse and eventually UConn. St. John's would be a notch below followed by Nova. ESPN etc lost their mind when Georgetown won the BET. It's like Tiger winning a major now or the Cowboys or Yankees. They are a brand that very few can match. Not a blueblood but a brand.
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Let’s not forget Ewing is an accomplished actor in the critically acclaimed Space Jam. He’s had some endorsement money too I’m sure.
I feel he wouldn’t want to step down more for pride than money reasons. I feel like coaches are confident enough people to think they have the skills to turn it around. Heck, we saw it with Wojo.
However, he could also say, “I’ve got too much money to deal with this crap,” and go enjoy retirement somewhere.
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ESPN etc lost their mind when Georgetown won the BET. It's like Tiger winning a major
No.
But I do get what you're saying.
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But to squander 122 MM is because of a series of horrendously bad decisions, agent fees have nothing to do with that. Every NBA player pays taxes & agent fees. Not every NBA player goes broke, so it is a very lazy excuse to cite those.
Right. Everyone spends money in different ways. That's exactly the point. Would everyone who made "$112M" many years ago need to make money today? No. But would some people? Yes.
Yes he "made" $112M. But after taxes and agent fees he (generously) saw $60M of that at best. He also played in the most expensive market in the US. Of course $60M SHOULD be plenty of money for anyone to live on, even in NYC. But when you're young, famous, and rich, sometimes it goes quickly! Do I know that Patrick Ewing is hurting for money, or was before he got $4M/year from Georgetown? No. Do I think he was/is? No. But do I think it's easy for people not making $4M/year to say, "The guy made a lot of money already. Why can't he just give it up and take an 85% pay cut?!" YUP!
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Georgetown's prez gets asked about the program and goes on a tangent about the NCAA...
https://hilltophoops.substack.com/p/jack-degioia-comments-on-georgetown-basketball?sd=pf
Question: I have to ask about the basketball program. [Crowd laughter] So please, tell us the state of the basketball program. And this is coming from a person who grew up in New York, and loves Patrick Ewing to death. He is an idol.
Jack DeGioia: He’s still worthy of your love. Truly he is. And he’s doing everything in his power to try and turn around the program.
[Long Pause]
[Crowd Laughter]
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Georgetown has a higher Big East Q rating than even Villanova. The Big East GOATS were Georgetown, Syracuse and eventually UConn. St. John's would be a notch below followed by Nova. ESPN etc lost their mind when Georgetown won the BET. It's like Tiger winning a major now or the Cowboys or Yankees. They are a brand that very few can match. Not a blueblood but a brand.
Operative word: Were.
I don't get this notion that the key to success for the Big East is to roll back the clock 40 years.
Saying that Georgetown's brand today is as strong as it was in the 1980s is akin to saying that Cadillac is still the Automotive Standard of the World, or that Beirut remains the Paris of the Middle East. You can't just cherry-pick the best parts of something and say that's its brand--it's based on the whole package. Georgetown's brand contains just as much DNA from last season's 0-19 record as it does from the 1984 championship.
And it's hard to take a comparison of the Yankees brand (winner 27 of 118 World Series) to that of Georgetown (winner of 1 of 80 NCAA tournaments) seriously.
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I'm not sure if you're asking what makes a marquee team or if you're asking who I think are the marquee teams in the Big East are.
On the first point, I'd answer that the marquee teams are the ones that first come to mind when the average fan thinks of the conference. I think that for the Big East, that would historically have been UCONN, Georgetown, Syracuse, and Villanova. St. John's would be right on the edge of that group in my mind.
You might be right. I was watching the Maryland/UCLA game and during the first half FS1 was advertising the Georgetown/Xavier game. I only watched the first half so I don't know if they also highlighted our game against Creighton later in the broadcast.
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Wow. Those “ comments “ from the
Georgetown Prez were quite the filibuster! Zzzzzzzz
They went 0 - 19 in the BE last year.
Anyone other than Ewing would have been fired.
Like DePaul, it seems they don’t care at
all about the BBall program.
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I have lived and worked in both metropolitan Chicago and the DC area - each for several years. I an honestly tell you that, in Chicago, DePaul basketball is virtually invisible, even among DP alum. Loyola draws much more interest these days. I cannot imagine that viewership of DePaul games is great around Chicago, though the metro area provides a lot of potential viewers to Fox. My guess is that Chicago viewership for other BE games is far better than for DePaul games. GT, on the other hand, seems to have a much more interested alumni base, though I am not sure how much longer that can last with Ewing as coach.
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You might be right. I was watching the Maryland/UCLA game and during the first half FS1 was advertising the Georgetown/Xavier game. I only watched the first half so I don't know if they also highlighted our game against Creighton later in the broadcast.
It has nothing to do with who the teams are and everything based on timing.
If they can get a casual fan tuned in for a game at 6:30 (eastern), there is a good chance they'll stick around for the 8:30 game. That game (Xavier/Georgetown) will be filled with ads and promos to keep people tuned in for the later Marquette/Creighton game
If they had promoted the 8:30 game during UCLA/Maryland and people missed the 6:30 game, they've lost those potential viewers forever
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I have lived and worked in both metropolitan Chicago and the DC area - each for several years. I an honestly tell you that, in Chicago, DePaul basketball is virtually invisible, even among DP alum. Loyola draws much more interest these days. I cannot imagine that viewership of DePaul games is great around Chicago, though the metro area provides a lot of potential viewers to Fox. My guess is that Chicago viewership for other BE games is far better than for DePaul games. GT, on the other hand, seems to have a much more interested alumni base, though I am not sure how much longer that can last with Ewing as coach.
popular?
Can confirm as a person in Chicago.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 16, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
30 32 Marquette
38 40 Xavier
47 49 Butler
48 47 Creighton
70 71 St. John's
84 84 Seton Hall
101 100 Providence
107 111 Villanova
156 157 DePaul
250 245 Georgetown
December 17 Team Sheets . MU is 30
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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I have lived and worked in both metropolitan Chicago and the DC area - each for several years. I an honestly tell you that, in Chicago, DePaul basketball is virtually invisible, even among DP alum. Loyola draws much more interest these days. I cannot imagine that viewership of DePaul games is great around Chicago, though the metro area provides a lot of potential viewers to Fox. My guess is that Chicago viewership for other BE games is far better than for DePaul games. GT, on the other hand, seems to have a much more interested alumni base, though I am not sure how much longer that can last with Ewing as coach.
DePaul has made the NCAA tourney 4 times since the 1980's, and just twice since the early 19990's. Georgetown has made the NCAA Tourney 17 times since the 1980's.
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DePaul has been good twice and relevant once.
All it took was Al retiring and Pat Kennedy not having a salary cap.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 17, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
28 30 Marquette
37 38 Xavier
47 48 Creighton
60 47 Butler
73 70 St. John's
83 101 Providence
95 84 Seton Hall
107 107 Villanova
179 156 DePaul
245 250 Georgetown
December 18 Team Sheets. MU is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Didn't appreciate that (currently) ND is only a Q3 win
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Didn't appreciate that (currently) ND is only a Q3 win
On the road? That does not sound correct. I think it is a Q2 win.
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On the road? That does not sound correct. I think it is a Q2 win.
Not right now.
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Not right now.
ND is terrible. Our blow out was expected and appropriate. Would have been a really bad loss. That was not rivalry ND. That was a 200 Kenpom defense. Glad MU took care of business. Hopefully Brey can coach them up to a Q2 win.
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Not right now.
Yeah. They are way lower than I thought. Have to think by end of year that would be a quad 2.
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ND is terrible. Our blow out was expected and appropriate. Would have been a really bad loss. That was not rivalry ND. That was a 200 Kenpom defense. Glad MU took care of business. Hopefully Brey can coach them up to a Q2 win.
Wonder how the Sparty fans are feeling?
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Wonder how the Sparty fans are feeling?
Stop it!!
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Speaking of ND, what the hell happened to the ACC? It's not just a one year dip. Is it the rise of SEC basketball? ACC visions of 11-14 bids per year look silly now.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 18, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
27 28 Marquette
36 37 Xavier
47 47 Creighton
54 60 Butler
73 73 St. John's
84 83 Providence
95 95 Seton Hall
105 107 Villanova
178 179 DePaul
244 245 Georgetown
December 19 Team Sheets . MU is 27
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Speaking of ND, what the hell happened to the ACC? It's not just a one year dip. Is it the rise of SEC basketball? ACC visions of 11-14 bids per year look silly now.
They had two teams in the Final Four last year--I'd love for the Big East to have that kind of multi-year dip.
The biggest problem with the ACC is that they are too balanced--the bottom teams in the league are winning too many games, which has the effect of stealing bids from those in the middle.
In 2017, when the ACC got 9 bids, 10 teams finished .500 or better and the teams below .500 combined for 24 wins. In 2022, when the ACC received only 5 bids, only 8 teams finished .500 or better, and teams below .500 combined for 44 wins.
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They had two teams in the Final Four last year--I'd love for the Big East to have that kind of multi-year dip.
The biggest problem with the ACC is that they are too balanced--the bottom teams in the league are winning too many games, which has the effect of stealing bids from those in the middle.
In 2017, when the ACC got 9 bids, 10 teams finished .500 or better and the teams below .500 combined for 24 wins. In 2022, when the ACC received only 5 bids, only 8 teams finished .500 or better, and teams below .500 combined for 44 wins.
Here are the ACCs RPI going back:
2022-2023 #6
2021-2022 #7
2020-2021 #8
2019-2020 #6
2018-2019 #3
2017-2018 #4
2016-2017 #1
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RPI!?!?
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RPI!?!?
I'm not selecting tourney teams. RPI goes back before NET and is still a decent representation overall. Is there another rating that shows the ACC #1 or #2 I should be using?
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I'm not selecting tourney teams. RPI goes back before NET and is still a decent representation overall. Is there another rating that shows the ACC #1 or #2 I should be using?
Here's the ACC's KenPom rank:
22-23: 6th
21-22: 5th
20-21: 5th
19-20: 4th
18-19: 3rd
17-18: 2nd
16-17: 2nd
15-16: 2nd
14-15: 3rd
13-14: 3rd
12-13: 6th
11-12: 5th
10-11: 3rd
09-10: 2nd
08-09: 5th
07-08: 3rd
06-07: 1st
05-06: 3rd
04-05: 1st
03-04: 1st
02-03: 1st
01-02: 3rd
They've been down before but this has been their longest down stretch ever
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They had two teams in the Final Four last year--I'd love for the Big East to have that kind of multi-year dip.
The biggest problem with the ACC is that they are too balanced--the bottom teams in the league are winning too many games, which has the effect of stealing bids from those in the middle.
In 2017, when the ACC got 9 bids, 10 teams finished .500 or better and the teams below .500 combined for 24 wins. In 2022, when the ACC received only 5 bids, only 8 teams finished .500 or better, and teams below .500 combined for 44 wins.
The bottom of the ACC is terrible, not sure what you mean by this. The last 4 years for the ACC has been rough. They clearly have premier programs at the top, but the middle and bottom of the conference have been on a slide.
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The bottom of the ACC is terrible, not sure what you mean by this. The last 4 years for the ACC has been rough. They clearly have premier programs at the top, but the middle and bottom of the conference have been on a slide.
I the The Equalizer is going to need Billy Packer to back him up here.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 19, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
28 27 Marquette
36 36 Xavier
47 47 Creighton
58 54 Butler
73 73 St. John's
86 84 Providence
94 95 Seton Hall
100 105 Villanova
176 178 DePaul
247 244 Georgetown
December 20 Team Sheets. MU is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings as of December 19
AP
2. U Conn
24.MU
Others receiving votes
X
Coaches
2. U Conn
25.MU
Others receiving votes
X
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The bottom of the ACC is terrible, not sure what you mean by this. The last 4 years for the ACC has been rough. They clearly have premier programs at the top, but the middle and bottom of the conference have been on a slide.
My point is consistent with the bid maximizing formula to to concentrate as many losses as possible in the smallest number of teams at the bottom, and the most possible teams .500 or above.
In 2017, the ACC did just that, with only 5 teams below .500, and those five combined for just 24 wins. They concentrated a ton of losses across a small number of teams and wound up with 9 bids--their most ever.
In 2022, the ACC violated this formula and saw 7 teams finish below .500, and those teams combined for 44 wins. They only got 5 bids.
Consider the same situation from a Big East perspective: Last year Xavier was 8-11 in the conference (plus a loss to Butler in the BET). DePaul beat them once, and St. Johns beat them twice. Xavier took three losses to sub .500 teams. If Xavier wins those three games, they're 11-8 and in all likelihood in the NCAA tournament, giving the Big East an extra bid.
On the other hand, if Georgetown was a bit better, they may have taken wins from Marquette and Seton Hall knocking them out of the NCAA tournament. 4 wins for Georgetown would have still kept them in last place, but if 2 were agains Seton Hall, and 2 were against Marquette, both teams would have been 9-10 instead of 11-8, and both teams likely would have been left out.
Compare the bottom of the Big East to the bottom of the ACC. NC State was terrible, but they still won 4 games, including one over Virginia Georgia Tech was terrible, but they still won 5 games, including one over Wake Forest. BC was terrible, but they still beat Wake in the ACC tournament. The bottom of the ACC was better than the bottom of the Big East, which is why the middle of the Big East was better than the middle of the ACC.
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My point is consistent with the bid maximizing formula to to concentrate as many losses as possible in the smallest number of teams at the bottom, and the most possible teams .500 or above.
In 2017, the ACC did just that, with only 5 teams below .500, and those five combined for just 24 wins. They concentrated a ton of losses across a small number of teams and wound up with 9 bids--their most ever.
In 2022, the ACC violated this formula and saw 7 teams finish below .500, and those teams combined for 44 wins. They only got 5 bids.
You are correct. But the ACC accomplished this by the top/middle getting worse rather than the bottom getting better. The conference as a whole has been down for the past 4 years.
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My point is consistent with the bid maximizing formula to to concentrate as many losses as possible in the smallest number of teams at the bottom, and the most possible teams .500 or above.
In 2017, the ACC did just that, with only 5 teams below .500, and those five combined for just 24 wins. They concentrated a ton of losses across a small number of teams and wound up with 9 bids--their most ever.
In 2022, the ACC violated this formula and saw 7 teams finish below .500, and those teams combined for 44 wins. They only got 5 bids.
Consider the same situation from a Big East perspective: Last year Xavier was 8-11 in the conference (plus a loss to Butler in the BET). DePaul beat them once, and St. Johns beat them twice. Xavier took three losses to sub .500 teams. If Xavier wins those three games, they're 11-8 and in all likelihood in the NCAA tournament, giving the Big East an extra bid.
On the other hand, if Georgetown was a bit better, they may have taken wins from Marquette and Seton Hall knocking them out of the NCAA tournament. 4 wins for Georgetown would have still kept them in last place, but if 2 were agains Seton Hall, and 2 were against Marquette, both teams would have been 9-10 instead of 11-8, and both teams likely would have been left out.
Compare the bottom of the Big East to the bottom of the ACC. NC State was terrible, but they still won 4 games, including one over Virginia Georgia Tech was terrible, but they still won 5 games, including one over Wake Forest. BC was terrible, but they still beat Wake in the ACC tournament. The bottom of the ACC was better than the bottom of the Big East, which is why the middle of the Big East was better than the middle of the ACC.
The old Sigmoid Curve
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You are correct. But the ACC accomplished this by the top/middle getting worse rather than the bottom getting better. The conference as a whole has been down for the past 4 years.
First off, the top 2 teams both made the Final Four. Not a sign of being down. That leaves only the middle and bottom to consider.
Based on bids received, I don't see the conference as a whole being down for the past 4 years
2014: 6 bids
2015: 6 bids
2016: 7 bids
2017: 9 bids
2018: 6 bids
2019: 7 bids
2021: 7 bids
2022: 5 bids
At best, you could say 2022 was below average--but it was the lowest bid total over the last decade. The prior two year the ACC received the 2nd most bids over the same timeframe.
At best, you could say 2022 was a bad year, and certain teams were down.
But comparing the two outliers shows a significant difference in the number of games won by the teams at the bottom, which can directly impact how many bids a league earns. We'll never know for sure, but I'm willing to assume that had Wake Forest not lost to BC or Louisville or Clemson or Georiga Tech last year, they would have made the tourney and increased the number of bids to 6.
And, yes, I saw your posting of Ken Pom averages--but in scoop vernacular, averages no matta.
1. We don't know if the difference in the underlying data is statistically significant. You're assuming the difference between the #1 and #6 ranked conference is meaningful, but in reality, the difference could be statistically insignificant noise.
2. You're willing to assume that because the ACC fell from, say, 4th to 5th in a particular year, it can only be explained that they got worse. But you didn't control for the possibility that the previous 5th-place leaguge improved while the ACC stayed consistent (or even improved slightly, but not as much as the previous 5th-place league).
3. An average is meaningless when it comes to evaluating individual teams. The average rank of UConn and IUIPI right now is 182, which is mathematically correct but tells you nothing useful about either team.
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First off, the top 2 teams both made the Final Four. Not a sign of being down. That leaves only the middle and bottom to consider.
Two teams making a tournament run doesn't mean the entire top of a 15 team conference isn't down.
Based on bids received, I don't see the conference as a whole being down for the past 4 years
2014: 6 bids
2015: 6 bids
2016: 7 bids
2017: 9 bids
2018: 6 bids
2019: 7 bids
2021: 7 bids
2022: 5 bids
At best, you could say 2022 was below average--but it was the lowest bid total over the last decade. The prior two year the ACC received the 2nd most bids over the same timeframe.
At best, you could say 2022 was a bad year, and certain teams were down.
What was said was last four years including this season not last 4 NCAA Tournaments. This year, the ACC is projected to have 5 bids at the moment (http://bracketmatrix.com/). This is obviously just a projection but if it holds it would be two years in a row of the lowest bids of the decade for the ACC. In 2020, the NCAAT was cancelled but the ACC was projected to have 5 bids going into the ACC tournament (http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2020.html). This is obviously not official but it is an accurate and objective predictor at that point in the season. You'll notice that no ACC teams that weren't already in the field received votes from 97 different bracketoligists, so it's not like any team was perceived as being close to becoming an at large.
So the last 4 years have looked more like:
2020: 5 bids
2021: 7 bids (The highest bid received by the ACC was a 4 seed which is very atypical for them)
2022: 5 bids
2023 (so far) : 5 bids
So 3 years of lowest bids in the past decade and one year of average but with no top 3 seeds.
But comparing the two outliers shows a significant difference in the number of games won by the teams at the bottom, which can directly impact how many bids a league earns. We'll never know for sure, but I'm willing to assume that had Wake Forest not lost to BC or Louisville or Clemson or Georiga Tech last year, they would have made the tourney and increased the number of bids to 6.
Wake Forest was a 2 seed in the NIT. They would have needed to at least move up 5 spots on the S-Curve. That's probably more than one game they needed to make up but like you said, we don't know. However, Wake Forest won 13 games in the ACC that year. The fact that a 13-7 ACC team was left out of the NCAAT should tell you how the strength of the ACC was perceived. Wake was 3 games over .500 and they were still left out. Also Wake didn't lose to Georgia Tech that year.
And, yes, I saw your posting of Ken Pom averages--but in scoop vernacular, averages no matta.
1. We don't know if the difference in the underlying data is statistically significant. You're assuming the difference between the #1 and #6 ranked conference is meaningful, but in reality, the difference could be statistically insignificant noise.
2. You're willing to assume that because the ACC fell from, say, 4th to 5th in a particular year, it can only be explained that they got worse. But you didn't control for the possibility that the previous 5th-place leaguge improved while the ACC stayed consistent (or even improved slightly, but not as much as the previous 5th-place league).
Okay. Instead of rank, I'll use the actual score.
22-23: 10.72
21-22: 10.69
20-21: 13.22
19-20: 11.45
18-19: 15.33
17-18: 15.71
16-17: 16.02
15-16: 16.70
14-15: 13.61
13-14: 13.04
12-13: 11.09
11-12: 10.02
10-11: 13.16
09-10: 16.34
08-09: 14.85
07-08: 14.29
06-07: 17.06
05-06: 14.07
04-05: 15.85
03-04: 20.32
02-03: 14.12
01-02: 13.61
You'll notice the 4 year average for the past 4 years is lower than any other 4 year period since 2002
3. An average is meaningless when it comes to evaluating individual teams. The average rank of UConn and IUIPI right now is 182, which is mathematically correct but tells you nothing useful about either team.
I'm not evaluating individual teams. I'm evaluating the top to bottom strength of a 15 team conference so averages absolutely apply.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 20, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
36 28 Marquette
37 36 Xavier
51 47 Creighton
58 58 Butler
74 73 St. John's
79 86 Providence
90 94 Seton Hall
105 100 Villanova
181 176 DePaul
224 247 Georgetown
December 21 Team Sheets . MU is 36
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 20, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
36 28 Marquette
37 36 Xavier
51 47 Creighton
58 58 Butler
74 73 St. John's
79 86 Providence
90 94 Seton Hall
105 100 Villanova
181 176 DePaul
224 247 Georgetown
December 21 Team Sheets . MU is 36
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Biggest problem with this years installment of the BE numbers wise-
A close loss on the road to a good BE team will drop you 6-8 spots in NET. Of course it wouldn’t be as drastic later in the season, but the StJ, Providence, SH, Nova numbers are so low that it affects you more negatively than it should.
Imagine losing to one of them in a blowout.
Conversely, it’s becoming evident that outside of beating UConn those teams not only need to continue to win, but they will need to win some games against good teams very convincingly
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Biggest problem with this years installment of the BE numbers wise-
A close loss on the road to a good BE team will drop you 6-8 spots in NET. Of course it wouldn’t be as drastic later in the season, but the StJ, Providence, SH, Nova numbers are so low that it affects you more negatively than it should.
Imagine losing to one of them in a blowout.
Conversely, it’s becoming evident that outside of beating UConn those teams not only need to continue to win, but they will need to win some games against good teams very convincingly
Miss. ST. Losing to Drake didn't help.
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Miss. ST. Losing to Drake didn't help.
That helps Bradley, though, and if it helps Bradley, it’ll make Brian Wardle that much better a candidate
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 21, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
34 37 Xavier
35 36 Marquette
51 51 Creighton
53 58 Butler
76 79 Providence
90 74 St. John's
93 90 Seton Hall
97 105 Villanova
179 181 DePaul
228 224 Georgetown
December 22 Team Sheets . MU is 35
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 22, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
33 34 Xavier
34 51 Creighton
35 35 Marquette
67 53 Butler
76 76 Providence
91 90 St. John's
94 93 Seton Hall
98 97 Villanova
176 179 DePaul
229 228 Georgetown
December 23 Team Sheets . MU is 35
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 23, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
35 33 Xavier
36 34 Creighton
37 35 Marquette
67 67 Butler
75 76 Providence
90 91 St. John's
91 94 Seton Hall
98 98 Villanova
176 176 DePaul
231 229 Georgetown
December 24 Team Sheets . MU is 37
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 25, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
34 36 Creighton
35 35 Xavier
37 37 Marquette
67 67 Butler
75 75 Providence
89 90 St. John's
91 91 Seton Hall
98 98 Villanova
176 176 DePaul
230 231 Georgetown
December 26 Team Sheets . MU is 37
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 25, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
34 36 Creighton
35 35 Xavier
37 37 Marquette
67 67 Butler
75 75 Providence
89 90 St. John's
91 91 Seton Hall
98 98 Villanova
176 176 DePaul
230 231 Georgetown
December 26 Team Sheets . MU is 37
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
I swear I’ll never understand NET - Creighton beats DePaul at home and moves up 2 spots? 😳
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I swear I’ll never understand NET - Creighton beats DePaul at home and moves up 2 spots? 😳
The metric likely expected Creighton to win by 10-12 points. They won by what, 15? Outperforming the metric will do that. Or it could be impacted by what happens to teams around them. Sometimes it's less a team moving up and more the teams around them moving down.
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The metric likely expected Creighton to win by 10-12 points. They won by what, 15? Outperforming the metric will do that. Or it could be impacted by what happens to teams around them. Sometimes it's less a team moving up and more the teams around them moving down.
Most likely the metric factor as there were only a handful of games played on Christmas Day none of which would seem to have an impact on Creighton’s NET….
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Big East Poll Rankings December 26,2022
AP
2.U Conn
22. X
Others receiving votes
MU, Cooley & Company
Coaches
2. U Conn
25. X
Others Receiving Votes
Cooley& Company, MU
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Don't look now, but T-Rank has us in at #10.
5th best offense in the country.
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Don't look now, but T-Rank has us in at #10.
5th best offense in the country.
Kenpom is similar, at #8 offense, but then in conference only games, #5 in conference- hah. Of course, Nova is #1 in conference only defensive efficiency, but I've heard they can't guard their own shadows :)
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Don't look now, but T-Rank has us in at #10.
5th best offense in the country.
I get lost in all the ranking systems…
I know TRank is highly regarded, but is it one of those predictive types that projects forward sort of deal? I don’t think they make the actual committee teamsheets right? Just KPom, Sagarin, and one more (unless that’s TRank?)
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I get lost in all the ranking systems…
I know TRank is highly regarded, but is it one of those predictive types that projects forward sort of deal? I don’t think they make the actual committee teamsheets right? Just KPom, Sagarin, and one more (unless that’s TRank?)
Trank is a little offensive heavy, and favors the last 10 games more than the whole season. So basically it has this game and the baylor game weighed heavier. Not on committee sheets.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 25, 2022
New Old
1 1 UConn
34 36 Creighton
35 35 Xavier
37 37 Marquette
67 67 Butler
75 75 Providence
89 90 St. John's
91 91 Seton Hall
98 98 Villanova
176 176 DePaul
230 231 Georgetown
December 26 Team Sheets . MU is 37
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
I like this gap from Marquettes perspective from the top 4th to 5th in the BE.
MU should improve and pass up CU and XU.
Stay in that top 4 crunch of NET and become a lock.
Let the others fight for that one spot in a First 4 game in Dayton- I’ll say it’ll be between Providence, StJ and Nova to get themselves in position for that bid. I think Butler falls off with SH.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 27,2002
New Old
1 1 UConn
30 37 Marquette
34 34 Creighton
37 35 Xavier
67 67 Butler
75 75 Providence
89 89 St. John's
95 91 Seton Hall
98 98 Villanova
177 176 DePaul
230 230 Georgetown
December 28,2022 Team Sheets MU is 30
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 27,2002
New Old
1 1 UConn
30 37 Marquette
34 34 Creighton
37 35 Xavier
67 67 Butler
75 75 Providence
89 89 St. John's
95 91 Seton Hall
98 98 Villanova
177 176 DePaul
230 230 Georgetown
December 28,2022 Team Sheets MU is 30
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
And that's what double digit wins do for you. DONT PLAY THE WALKONS
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Kenpom is similar, at #8 offense, but then in conference only games, #5 in conference- hah. Of course, Nova is #1 in conference only defensive efficiency, but I've heard they can't guard their own shadows :)
Not sure if you are joking or not, but Villanova has only played 1 conference game and it was against the current 7th ranked offense in the conference. So their #1 conference rating is based on 1 good defensive game against a subpar (by BE standards) defense. If they maintain that ranking after UConn tonight, maybe you're on to something.
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177 176 DePaul
230 230 Georgetown
Must-see TV Thursday night. Is this the lowest rated pairing of two Big East teams ever?
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 28, 2022
New Old
2 1 UConn
26 37 Xavier
29 30 Marquette
35 34 Creighton
66 67 Butler
76 75 Providence
89 98 Villanova
93 95 Seton Hall
96 89 St. John's
176 177 DePaul
230 230 Georgetown
December 29 Team Sheets. MU is 29
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Must-see TV Thursday night. Is this the lowest rated pairing of two Big East teams ever?
Marquette has to sweep DePaul and Georgetown this season.
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Marquette has to sweep DePaul and Georgetown this season.
Just don't wake a sweeping giant.
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Marquette has to sweep DePaul and Georgetown this season.
Sweep the corners.
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Sweep the leg, Johnny
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Sweep the leg, Johnny
Jesus swept
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Marquette has to sweep DePaul and Georgetown this season.
Agreed.
Unfortunately with DePaul Ill believe it when I see it. Always our slip up.
Really, really cant let this year be one of those years.
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#SleepingGiants
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Georgetown vs DePaul tonight in the Battle for None of the Marbles!
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MU jumped from 29 to 24 last night. Providence beat down last night makes that loss a Q1 now. Not sure how much it helped, but Central Michigan’s win over Michigan probably didn’t hurt either.
MU also up to 23 in Kenpom. A win tomorrow and I’m expecting them to be back in the AP Top25.
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I missed that Providence Butler game. Providence was up 46-18 at the half!
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Prov absolutely dominated Butler from the opening tip. Butler looked lost on both ends of the court. Bates was invisible in the first half, but largely due to Prov defense. I had not seen Butler play this year, and I was shocked at how bad they looked.
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MU jumped from 29 to 24 last night. Providence beat down last night makes that loss a Q1 now. Not sure how much it helped, but Central Michigan’s win over Michigan probably didn’t hurt either.
MU also up to 23 in Kenpom. A win tomorrow and I’m expecting them to be back in the AP Top25.
Thank You for posting awesome news Marquette up to #24 in NET
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 29, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
24 29 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
34 35 Creighton
65 76 Providence
78 66 Butler
88 89 Villanova
93 93 Seton Hall
96 96 St. John's
171 176 DePaul
222 230 Georgetown
December 30 Team Sheets MU is 24
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Georgetown vs DePaul tonight in the Battle for None of the Marbles!
23rd straight conference loss for Hoyas - closing in on Depaul's record of 25. Woof.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 30, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
25 24 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
35 34 Creighton
64 65 Providence
81 78 Butler
89 88 Villanova
91 93 Seton Hall
96 96 St. John's
174 171 DePaul
216 222 Georgetown
December 31 Team Sheets MU is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 29, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
24 29 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
34 35 Creighton
65 76 Providence
78 66 Butler
88 89 Villanova
93 93 Seton Hall
96 96 St. John's
171 176 DePaul
222 230 Georgetown
December 30 Team Sheets MU is 24
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Thanks, Central Michigan.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 30, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
25 24 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
35 34 Creighton
64 65 Providence
81 78 Butler
89 88 Villanova
91 93 Seton Hall
96 96 St. John's
174 171 DePaul
216 222 Georgetown
December 31 Team Sheets MU is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Georgetown's fault
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Up to 23 in KenPom, 9th on offense. Not sure I saw a top-10 KenPom offense coming into the season
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Up to 23 in KenPom, 9th on offense. Not sure I saw a top-10 KenPom offense coming into the season
That's ok, we need to keep expectations really low here. Winning a close game on the road against a good team can only hurt us.
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That's ok, we need to keep expectations really low here. Winning a close game on the road against a good team can only hurt us.
I agree with this analysis
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That's ok, we need to keep expectations really low here. Winning a close game on the road against a good team can only hurt us.
That game was only 62 possessions. So Marquette lost the game on tempo.
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That game was only 62 possessions. So Marquette lost the game on tempo.
Well now the win doesn't matter and you've ruined my NYE.
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I agree with this analysis
I say elite analysis
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Up to 23 in KenPom, 9th on offense. Not sure I saw a top-10 KenPom offense coming into the season
If our defense can come around to 30th as Shaka's teams historically have performed we'd be a KenPom Top 10-15 team overall.
Don't think anyone saw Top 10 Ken Pom Offense coming into the year..
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If our defense can come around to 30th as Shaka's teams historically have performed we'd be a KenPom Top 10-15 team overall.
Don't think anyone saw Top 10 Ken Pom Offense coming into the year..
Top 30-ish defense ups the ceiling, too
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Top 30-ish defense ups the ceiling, too
Ha! top 10 offense and a top 30 defense is a legitimate national title contender. Let’s get er done!
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Ha! top 10 offense and a top 30 defense is a legitimate national title contender. Let’s get er done!
Final Four. Think only two title winners in the KenPom era outside the top 20 in either.
Anyway you cut it, it’s a GREAT discussion to have about Marquette
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Shooter
This team is built for the long haul. Last year I was a bonus season based off of guys being part of a new program, led by a charismatic HC. This year is different and they need to keep going full speed ahead. This team was light years ahead of last season one game into the season.
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Final Four. Think only two title winners in the KenPom era outside the top 20 in either.
Anyway you cut it, it’s a GREAT discussion to have about Marquette
Love it!
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Final Four. Think only two title winners in the KenPom era outside the top 20 in either.
Anyway you cut it, it’s a GREAT discussion to have about Marquette
But we better win the close games
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Shooter
This team is built for the long haul. Last year I was a bonus season based off of guys being part of a new program, led by a charismatic HC. This year is different and they need to keep going full speed ahead. This team was light years ahead of last season one game into the season.
I agree Goose. Lots of upside to a team that already is legitimate. There aren’t really too many teams that are head and shoulders above the rest this year. MU could be in a really good position at the end of the year. Hell, we already gave the number one team in the country a run for their money on their home court. Who knows? Just keep winning.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 30, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
25 24 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
35 34 Creighton
64 65 Providence
81 78 Butler
89 88 Villanova
91 93 Seton Hall
96 96 St. John's
174 171 DePaul
216 222 Georgetown
December 31 Team Sheets MU is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
I noticed that the weasel/rodents are 50 NET.
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I noticed that the weasel/rodents are 50 NET.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 30, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
25 24 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
35 34 Creighton
64 65 Providence
81 78 Butler
89 88 Villanova
91 93 Seton Hall
96 96 St. John's
174 171 DePaul
216 222 Georgetown
December 31 Team Sheets MU is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Marquette’s NET ranking went up to 28 today.
Baylor and Georgia Tech losing did not help.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 31, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
20 26 Xavier
28 25 Marquette
36 35 Creighton
57 64 Providence
82 81 Butler
83 91 Seton Hall
91 89 Villanova
101 96 St. John's
181 174 DePaul
219 216 Georgetown
January 1 Team Sheets . MU is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Marquette’s NET ranking went up to 28 today.
Baylor and Georgia Tech losing did not help.
Baylor and Georgia Tech losing did not help, but more importantly, the NET wouldn't like that we only won by 2 against #89 Villanova. Numbers don't always take into account context so all the NET formula sees is that Nova has a .500 record with some good wins but also some headscratching losses. That will adjust assuming Villanova continues to play well the rest of the way. Also keep in mind that what we see is not the NET score but rather the ranking. So it is possible that our score went up but others right behind us went up more. For example, both Xavier and Iowa State jumped us because they both had huge wins against #2 UConn and #24 Baylor. I can't remember if San Diego State was above or below us but they got a 9 point road win over #67 UNLV which at this point would be more impressive to the NET formula so that could have caused them to jump as well.
Conference play is starting all around the country now. The NET numbers will rapidly start to normalize over the next few weeks.
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Baylor and Georgia Tech losing did not help, but more importantly, the NET wouldn't like that we only won by 2 against #89 Villanova. Numbers don't always take into account context so all the NET formula sees is that Nova has a .500 record with some good wins but also some headscratching losses. That will adjust assuming Villanova continues to play well the rest of the way. Also keep in mind that what we see is not the NET score but rather the ranking. So it is possible that our score went up but others right behind us went up more. For example, both Xavier and Iowa State jumped us because they both had huge wins against #2 UConn and #24 Baylor. I can't remember if San Diego State was above or below us but they got a 9 point road win over #67 UNLV which at this point would be more impressive to the NET formula so that could have caused them to jump as well.
Conference play is starting all around the country now. The NET numbers will rapidly start to normalize over the next few weeks.
Why don't we see the score as well as the ranking?
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Why don't we see the score as well as the ranking?
(https://media.tenor.com/Cu8g7dpaP7EAAAAC/cars-filmore.gif)
In all seriousness, the NCAA has never released the scores or the "secret sauce" that goes into the NET formula and no one has been able to replicate it/it has never been leaked which after 5+ years is surprising to me. I assume they don't release the scores to make it harder for people to replicate the formula. Why they don't want people to know the formula? You'd have to ask the NCAA.
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They also didn't release the RPI formula for a long time. Once they did, everyone figured out how to game the system. By keeping NET secret, they delay teams figuring out ways to game it.
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(https://media.tenor.com/Cu8g7dpaP7EAAAAC/cars-filmore.gif)
In all seriousness, the NCAA has never released the scores or the "secret sauce" that goes into the NET formula and no one has been able to replicate it/it has never been leaked which after 5+ years is surprising to me. I assume they don't release the scores to make it harder for people to replicate the formula. Why they don't want people to know the formula? You'd have to ask the NCAA.
Because you won't have talking heads criticizing the formula if no one knows what the formula actually is. And I'm serious about this - the NCAA as an organization has never had "transparency" as one of its core values. You aren't supposed to know that the sausage might made from lips and a$$holes.
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Baylor and Georgia Tech losing did not help, but more importantly, the NET wouldn't like that we only won by 2 against #89 Villanova. Numbers don't always take into account context so all the NET formula sees is that Nova has a .500 record with some good wins but also some headscratching losses. That will adjust assuming Villanova continues to play well the rest of the way. Also keep in mind that what we see is not the NET score but rather the ranking. So it is possible that our score went up but others right behind us went up more. For example, both Xavier and Iowa State jumped us because they both had huge wins against #2 UConn and #24 Baylor. I can't remember if San Diego State was above or below us but they got a 9 point road win over #67 UNLV which at this point would be more impressive to the NET formula so that could have caused them to jump as well.
Conference play is starting all around the country now. The NET numbers will rapidly start to normalize over the next few weeks.
I understand all this … and yet it still seems weird that Nova’s NET went down by only 2 while ours went down by 3.
But thank goodness we didn’t win by 15, or else we’d still be 0-4 in close games.
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I understand all this … and yet it still seems weird that Nova’s NET went down by only 2 while ours went down by 3.
But thank goodness we didn’t win by 15, or else we’d still be 0-4 in close games.
Can marquette win close games? They should have won by 1 IMO. Would have unlocked a new skill.
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Can marquette win close games? They should have won by 1 IMO. Would have unlocked a new skill.
The only problem with winning too many close games is that everyone will start calling us lucky.. double edged sword imo
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(https://media.tenor.com/Cu8g7dpaP7EAAAAC/cars-filmore.gif)
In all seriousness, the NCAA has never released the scores or the "secret sauce" that goes into the NET formula and no one has been able to replicate it/it has never been leaked which after 5+ years is surprising to me. I assume they don't release the scores to make it harder for people to replicate the formula. Why they don't want people to know the formula? You'd have to ask the NCAA.
Get Elon Musk to purchase the NCAA!!! Then will know.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 31, 2022
New Old
2 2 UConn
20 26 Xavier
28 25 Marquette
36 35 Creighton
57 64 Providence
82 81 Butler
83 91 Seton Hall
91 89 Villanova
101 96 St. John's
181 174 DePaul
219 216 Georgetown
January 1 Team Sheets . MU is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Marquette stays at 28 in the NET today. Maryland moved behind Marquette but Kansas State moved ahead of Marquette.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 1, 2023
New Old
2 2 UConn
21 20 Xavier
28 28 Marquette
34 36 Creighton
48 57 Providence
69 82 Butler
83 83 Seton Hall
92 91 Villanova
102 101 St. John's
197 181 DePaul
242 219 Georgetown
January 2 Team Sheets MU is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings as of January 2, 2023
4. U Conn
18.X
Others Receiving Votes
MU, Cooley & Company , Creighton
Coaches
5. U Conn
18. X
Others Receiving Votes
Cooley & Company, MU
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Big East NET ranking as as of games of January 2, 2023
New Old
2 2 UConn
21 21 Xavier
28 28 Marquette
32 34 Creighton
48 48 Providence
70 69 Butler
83 83 Seton Hall
92 92 Villanova
101 102 St. John's
195 197 DePaul
241 242 Georgetown
January 3 Team Sheets . MU is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Damn you, Rutgers.
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Damn you, Rutgers.
Let's be honest. We're jealous. It coulda shoulda woulda been us that took them down on their home court if if if.
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The only problem with winning too many close games is that everyone will start calling us lucky.. double edged sword imo
Better to be good than lucky.
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What are the chances are NET still drops after that Miss State game?
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What are the chances are NET still drops after that Miss State game?
I thought it was predictable they were going to turn out to be a fraud. Even said as much after the game. Think they finish around 9th in the SEC.
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What are the chances are NET still drops after that Miss State game?
It won’t help, that’s for sure.
I’ve mentioned before that part of Marquettes super high early ranking was it’s opponents starting off unsustainably hot.
Mississippi state will be a good example of that.
All Marquettes do indeed reach equilibrium.
I’d expect Miss St, Purdue to some extent, UW, and Baylor to struggle once they hit conference play, and their numbers to drop.
That will affect Marquettes numbers, so they just have to keep doing what they did tonight- win and win by bigger margins than expected.
Easy peasy right?
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Miss State is just an abomination offensively.
Tough size match up for us. But we should have had it.
With the offense in rhythm now we would win that game easy
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What are the chances are NET still drops after that Miss State game?
It should drop to Q2. St. Johns will just stay in Q2 on the road. Mu's efficiency will still increase. It will be similar.
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It should drop to Q2. St. Johns will just stay in Q2 on the road. Mu's efficiency will still increase. It will be similar.
Quadrants only matter come selection Sunday yes? I’m terms of overall efficiency I would think that’d hurt more than our game would help, but I’m not as well versed as some in the advanced stats.
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It should drop to Q2. St. Johns will just stay in Q2 on the road. Mu's efficiency will still increase. It will be similar.
Hopefully one of Nova or StJ ends up as a Q1 road win by seasons end.
Nova seems more likely if they can right the ship, maybe slide into the top 75
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Hopefully one of Nova or StJ ends up as a Q1 road win by seasons end.
Nova seems more likely if they can right the ship, maybe slide into the top 75
Creighton is going to Q1 tonight. I'll take it.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 3, 2022
New Old
3 2 UConn
22 21 Xavier
25 28 Marquette
28 32 Creighton
46 48 Providence
70 70 Butler
89 83 Seton Hall
92 92 Villanova
107 101 St. John's
196 195 DePaul
242 241 Georgetown
January 4 Team Sheets . MU is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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random question, someone on this board had previously been posting a "snippet" from another site that outlined Marquette's chances of making the ncaa tournament + a little bit of commentary . i thought it was in this chat thread, but not i cant find it. I know it also hasn't been posted in a few weeks.
Can some one help me out? haha
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random question, someone on this board had previously been posting a "snippet" from another site that outlined Marquette's chances of making the ncaa tournament + a little bit of commentary . i thought it was in this chat thread, but not i cant find it. I know it also hasn't been posted in a few weeks
Can some one help me out? haha
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=63731.0
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https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=63731.0
Thank you!!!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 4, 2022
New Old
3 3 UConn
23 25 Marquette
26 22 Xavier
28 28 Creighton
33 46 Providence
71 70 Butler
86 92 Villanova
90 89 Seton Hall
107 107 St. John's
193 196 DePaul
253 242 Georgetown
January 5 Team sheets . MU is 23
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 4, 2022
New Old
3 3 UConn
23 25 Marquette
26 22 Xavier
28 28 Creighton
33 46 Providence
71 70 Butler
86 92 Villanova
90 89 Seton Hall
107 107 St. John's
193 196 DePaul
253 242 Georgetown
January 5 Team sheets . MU is 23
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Thanks For Posting
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 5, 2023
New Old
3 3 UConn
23 23 Marquette
25 26 Xavier
27 28 Creighton
32 33 Providence
67 71 Butler
87 86 Villanova
88 90 Seton Hall
109 107 St. John's
196 193 DePaul
248 253 Georgetown
January 6 Team Sheets . MU is 23
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 6, 2023
New Old
3 3 UConn
22 23 Marquette
26 25 Xavier
27 27 Creighton
33 32 Providence
68 67 Butler
87 87 Villanova
88 88 Seton Hall
109 109 St. John's
195 196 DePaul
249 248 Georgetown
January 7 Team Sheets . MU is 22
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of
January 7, 2023
New Old
3 3 UConn
19 26 Xavier
22 22 Marquette
25 27 Creighton
34 33 Providence
73 68 Butler
75 88 Seton Hall
91 87 Villanova
104 109 St. John's
193 195 DePaul
251 249 Georgetown
January 8 Team Sheets . MU is 22
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of
January 7, 2022
New Old
3 3 UConn
19 26 Xavier
22 22 Marquette
25 27 Creighton
34 33 Providence
73 68 Butler
75 88 Seton Hall
91 87 Villanova
104 109 St. John's
193 195 DePaul
251 249 Georgetown
January 8 Team Sheets . MU is 22
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Being almost 60 slots lower than DePaul is quite an achievement.
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3 3 UConn
18 19 Xavier
21 22 Marquette
24 25 Creighton
34 34 Providence
73 73 Butler
74 75 Seton Hall
91 91 Villanova
102 104 St. John's
191 193 DePaul
247 251 Georgetown
December 10 Team Sheets . MU is 21
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings January 9, 2023
AP
6. U Conn
12. X
19. Cooley & Company
25 . MU
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton
Coaches
7. U Conn
11. X
19. Cooley & Company
23. MU
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 9, 2023
3 3 UConn
18 18 Xavier
20 21 Marquette
24 24 Creighton
34 34 Providence
73 73 Butler
74 74 Seton Hall
91 91 Villanova
102 102 St. John's
192 191 DePaul
247 247 Georgetown
January 10 Team Sheets . MU is 20
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 10,2022
New Old
3 3 UConn
19 18 Xavier
22 20 Marquette
26 24 Creighton
34 34 Providence
71 74 Seton Hall
78 73 Butler
90 102 St. John's
93 91 Villanova
176 192 DePaul
258 246 Georgetown
January 11 Team Sheets . MU is 22
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 11,2023
New Old
4 3 Conn
17 22 Marquette
19 19 Xavier
27 26 Creighton
33 34 Providence
71 71 Seton Hall
80 78 Butler
90 90 St. John's
92 93 Villanova
171 176 DePaul
251 258 Georgetown
January 12 Team Sheets . MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Huge Day for us
We rose 5 spots to 17 while getting a Q1 win
Baylor won on the road so they went from 30 to 23. Now giving them some Q1 breathing room.
Creighton hung with X so they only dropped 1 spot and remain Q1
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Huge Day for us
We rose 5 spots to 17 while getting a Q1 win
Baylor won on the road so they went from 30 to 23. Now giving them some Q1 breathing room.
Creighton hung with X so they only dropped 1 spot and remain Q1
A good day indeed PGHeroes.
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Yeah baby!
Can't wait to see where we are after beating X on Sunday!
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Huge Day for us
We rose 5 spots to 17 while getting a Q1 win
Baylor won on the road so they went from 30 to 23. Now giving them some Q1 breathing room.
Creighton hung with X so they only dropped 1 spot and remain Q1
And another huge opportunity on Sunday at X.
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Brew this is probably a better question after Sunday, but when is the top 16 reveal?
Early February?
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Brew this is probably a better question after Sunday, but when is the top 16 reveal?
Early February?
I'm not Brew, but the revel is usually mid Feb. Last year was 19th, 2021 was the 13th. I'd guess the 18th this year since they do it on Saturdays.
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Huge Day for us
We rose 5 spots to 17 while getting a Q1 win
Baylor won on the road so they went from 30 to 23. Now giving them some Q1 breathing room.
Creighton hung with X so they only dropped 1 spot and remain Q1
Agree Huge Day For Us moving to 17. Happy We passed Rutgers too who beat NW on the road. Awesome Day For Marquette.
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I'm not Brew, but the revel is usually mid Feb. Last year was 19th, 2021 was the 13th. I'd guess the 18th this year since they do it on Saturdays.
It's typically the Saturday after Super Bowl Sunday. So this year, February 18th should be correct.
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Definitely gonna hop OSU.
Even if they come back down 11 with 5 minutes left. Cant imagine a close win at home vs Minny is gonna be good for the NET
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10 full games until then, looong way to go.
8-2 stretch (22-6, 14-3) should all about lock up a fun Saturday afternoon with a Marquette sighting.
7-3 stretch might even do it.
Let’s start that on Sunday
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10 full games until then, looong way to go.
8-2 stretch (22-6, 14-3) should all about lock up a fun Saturday afternoon with a Marquette sighting.
7-3 stretch might even do it.
Let’s start that on Sunday
We might be a 2 seed if we go 8-2 to that point.
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I’d love to find out
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Big East NET rankings as of game of January 12
3 4 UConn
16 17 Marquette
19 19 Xavier
27 27 Creighton
32 33 Providence
69 71 Seton Hall
79 80 Butler
88 90 St. John's
92 92 Villanova
167 171 DePaul
253 251 Georgetown
January 13 Team Sheet. MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 13, 2023
New Old
4 3 UConn
16 16 Marquette
19 19 Xavier
26 27 Creighton
33 32 Providence
68 69 Seton Hall
77 79 Butler
88 88 St. John's
95 92 Villanova
167 167 DePaul
253 253 Georgetown
January 14 Team Sheets . MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Thanks for posting these each day Herman.
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Will we see Villanova with a hundo next to them? WHo would have though that would happen?
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Will we see Villanova with a hundo next to them? WHo would have though that would happen?
Jay?
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https://media.tenor.com/dfI73tkfAJ4AAAAC/jason-pritchett.gif (https://media.tenor.com/dfI73tkfAJ4AAAAC/jason-pritchett.gif)
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Thanks for posting these each day Herman.
+1 ty
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 14, 2023
New Old
5 4 UConn
16 16 Marquette
17 19 Xavier
24 26 Creighton
36 33 Providence
67 68 Seton Hall
80 77 Butler
89 88 St. John's
96 95 Villanova
171 167 DePaul
252 253 Georgetown
January 15 Team Sheets . MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Marquette’s NET is 18 today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 15, 2023
New Old
7 5 UConn
17 17 Xavier
18 16 Marquette
24 24 Creighton
37 36 Providence
64 67 Seton Hall
78 89 St. John's
81 80 Butler
97 96 Villanova
171 171 DePaul
255 252 Georgetown
January 16 Team Sheets . MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 15, 2023
New Old
7 5 UConn
17 17 Xavier
18 16 Marquette
24 24 Creighton
37 36 Providence
64 67 Seton Hall
78 89 St. John's
81 80 Butler
97 96 Villanova
171 171 DePaul
255 252 Georgetown
January 16 Team Sheets . MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Thanks Herman. Not bad. Let’s go get the dence
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Big East Poll Rankings January 16, 2023
AP
8. X
15.U Conn
20. MU
22. Cooley & Company
Others Receiving Votes :
Creighton
Coaches
8.X
14.U Conn
18. MU
20. Cooley & Company
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UW Madison is really close to becoming a Q3 loss, but @St. John's is really close to becoming a Q1 win.
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UW Madison is really close to becoming a Q3 loss, but @St. John's is really close to becoming a Q1 win.
I am totally fine with the Bucky ship continuing to sink even if it results in a Q3 loss for us.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 16, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
16 17 Xavier
18 18 Marquette
24 24 Creighton
37 37 Providence
64 64 Seton Hall
77 78 St. John's
81 81 Butler
102 97 Villanova
169 171 DePaul
252 255 Georgetown
January 17 Team Sheets. MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Will we see Villanova with a hundo next to them? WHo would have though that would happen?
Apparently, yes.
Big East NET rankings as of games of January 16, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
16 17 Xavier
18 18 Marquette
24 24 Creighton
37 37 Providence
64 64 Seton Hall
77 78 St. John's
81 81 Butler
102 97 Villanova
169 171 DePaul
252 255 Georgetown
January 17 Team Sheets. MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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The two teams that have surprised me most this year are Villanova and Providence. Definitely did not think Villanova could be this bad. Thought Jay left more there and that someone would emerge as a viable PG, even if not a star. Providence I didn't think could come together this fast, and they certainly look better than last year to me. Cooley won NCOY last year, but I think he's been better this year. SHU is the other mild surprise. Their defense is good enough that if they get any level of offensive output, they can stay close to the top of the league.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 17, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
17 16 Xavier
19 18 Marquette
21 24 Creighton
36 37 Providence
65 64 Seton Hall
78 77 St. John's
86 81 Butler
101 102 Villanova
167 169 DePaul
251 252 Georgetown
January 18 Team sheets . MU is 19
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 18, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
18 19 Marquette
20 21 Creighton
22 17 Xavier
38 36 Providence
61 65 Seton Hall
78 78 St. John's
87 86 Butler
101 101 Villanova
155 167 DePaul
250 251 Georgetown
January 19 Team Sheets . MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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The two teams that have surprised me most this year are Villanova and Providence. Definitely did not think Villanova could be this bad. Thought Jay left more there and that someone would emerge as a viable PG, even if not a star. Providence I didn't think could come together this fast, and they certainly look better than last year to me. Cooley won NCOY last year, but I think he's been better this year. SHU is the other mild surprise. Their defense is good enough that if they get any level of offensive output, they can stay close to the top of the league.
These next two games could be our trap games. Never under estimate your opponent, especially on their home court.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 18, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
18 19 Marquette
20 21 Creighton
22 17 Xavier
38 36 Providence
61 65 Seton Hall
78 78 St. John's
87 86 Butler
101 101 Villanova
155 167 DePaul
250 251 Georgetown
January 19 Team Sheets . MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
muwarrior69 is 76 today. Unfortunately my NET rank keeps going up.
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Looking down at the grass, not up at it. Celebrate, brother!
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These next two games could be our trap games. Never under estimate your opponent, especially on their home court.
You can't have two trap games in a row. Part of the trap game definition is that the better team is looking past their next game because the next game is a big one. MU isn't looking past Seton Hall because they are excited about taking on DePaul.
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Warrior69
Happy Birthday!! I hope you hit 100 on the Net down the road.
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You can't have two trap games in a row. Part of the trap game definition is that the better team is looking past their next game because the next game is a big one. MU isn't looking past Seton Hall because they are excited about taking on DePaul.
Really glad SHU beat UConn and we have a week off after. Nothing to focus on other than beating the Pirates.
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Warrior69
Happy Birthday!! I hope you hit 100 on the Net down the road.
...and see a NCAA Championship banner or two; you gotta believe!
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You can't have two trap games in a row. Part of the trap game definition is that the better team is looking past their next game because the next game is a big one. MU isn't looking past Seton Hall because they are excited about taking on DePaul.
When you are my age every game is a big game, but point taken.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 18, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
18 19 Marquette
20 21 Creighton
22 17 Xavier
38 36 Providence
61 65 Seton Hall
78 78 St. John's
87 86 Butler
101 101 Villanova
155 167 DePaul
250 251 Georgetown
January 19 Team Sheets . MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Did NET stop updating UConn's ranking?
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Did NET stop updating UConn's ranking?
Methinks there is something rotten in that special sauce.
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Did NET stop updating UConn's ranking?
That’s a good observation. They’ve lost 5 of 6 and their NET has barely budged. Them losing has been great for the Big East.
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warrior69
I am not saying that MU can win a national championship this season, but I am not saying they cannot.
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“trap games” are COLE at it’s best. There may have to be new name for using “two trap games in a row”
These next two games could be our trap games. Never under estimate your opponent, especially on their home court.
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warrior69
I am not saying that MU can win a national championship this season, but I am not saying they cannot.
Neither was I. I was just saying, God willing, that if I reach my NET of 100 a NC or two may be in the works by then.
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That’s a good observation. They’ve lost 5 of 6 and their NET has barely budged. Them losing has been great for the Big East.
They are still 15-5, four of their losses are to top 50 KenPom teams. They beat five top 50 teams in non-conference, all by double digits. They had some cushion. If they lose a few more, they'll start to drop.
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warrior69
I know you were not saying that, but I wanted to get that out there in print.
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warrior69
I am not saying that MU can win a national championship this season, but I am not saying they cannot.
I'd love to see this happen, but no team outside the top 30 in KenPom defensive efficiency has EVER won a natty. We're #90 (but #1 offense). Would love for Shaka and the guys to prove me wrong though.
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SaveOD
The Golden State Warriors changed the NBA and MU's style might be changing the old rules of who can win and who cannot win.
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I'd love to see this happen, but no team outside the top 30 in KenPom defensive efficiency has EVER won a natty. We're #90 (but #1 offense). Would love for Shaka and the guys to prove me wrong though.
Entering the tournament, the lowest defense ranking was 39. But plenty of Final Four teams have made it with lower defensive rankings. I think the key is to get us, Arizona, Xavier, and Baylor into the Final Four. Then a sub-40 defense is certain to win.
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It's so much fun to be even talking about Final Fours and national titles!
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Entering the tournament, the lowest defense ranking was 39. But plenty of Final Four teams have made it with lower defensive rankings. I think the key is to get us, Arizona, Xavier, and Baylor into the Final Four. Then a sub-40 defense is certain to win.
Being outside the top-20 in either offense or defense is an outlier
I think covid and the portal changes the equation a bit — maybe. We’ll have more data points in a year or two
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SaveOD
The Golden State Warriors changed the NBA and MU's style might be changing the old rules of who can win and who cannot win.
You never know what's going to happen era to era as style of play changes, but the Warriors defensive rankings in their four title years were:
2015 - 1st
2017 - 2nd
2018 - 11th
2022 - 1st
They won with defense as much as they did with offense. Since 2013, their 2018 team is the only team to win the NBA title while ranking outside of the top 10 in defense. It's possible for MU to make a run, but the defense will likely have to improve.
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BM1090
I still think our defense is far better than the ranking shows. There is not a game that we are not forcing the opponent to make tough shots. The second chance points have hurt the cause. First shot possessions they are making teams work hard more often than not.
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BM1090
I still think our defense is far better than the ranking shows. There is not a game that we are not forcing the opponent to make tough shots. The second chance points have hurt the cause. First shot possessions they are making teams work hard more often than not.
While this is true, the ranking is low because of what happens when giving up second chance points. At this point, it’s part of who they are.
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BM1090
I still think our defense is far better than the ranking shows. There is not a game that we are not forcing the opponent to make tough shots. The second chance points have hurt the cause. First shot possessions they are making teams work hard more often than not.
We agree there. The first shot defense is just fine. Improving marginally on the glass is probably the easiest way to fix the defense.
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Expecting the defense metrics to improve a bit the rest of the way.
Avg kenpom offense rank of BE opponents:
First 9: 53.3
Last 11: 84.4
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...and see a NCAA Championship banner or two; you gotta believe!
I just turned 77 so maybe that's an omen for this year. 8-)
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Marquette's offense is up to #1 in KenPom Offense after Purdue just finished up with Minnesota.
Unbelievable.
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Marquette's offense is up to #1 in KenPom Offense after Purdue just finished up with Minnesota.
Unbelievable.
Wow. It's also interesting that our two best % 3pt shooters come off the bench.
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Did NET stop updating UConn's ranking?
Losing to a top 65 team on the road doesn't really hurt you. This doesn't go into NET calculations, but at Seton Hall is a Q1 loss.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 19, 2023
New Old
8 7 UConn
17 18 Marquette
18 20 Creighton
22 22 Xavier
38 38 Providence
63 61 Seton Hall
78 78 St. John's
86 87 Butler
101 101 Villanova
154 155 DePaul
251 250 Georgetown
January 20 Team Sheets. MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Thanks, Herman. Very much appreciate you updating this post on a regular basis, especially when the number looks good for MU.
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Thanks, Herman. Very much appreciate you updating this post on a regular basis, especially when the number looks good for MU.
Surprised he is not calling them “Excellent” rankings.
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Point
Herman can call anything he wants excellent as far as I am concerned. We need more Hermans on scoop.
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Thanks, Herman. Very much appreciate you updating this post on a regular basis, especially when the number looks good for MU.
Agree. Always like seeing these from 9-9-9.
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Surprised he is not calling them “Excellent” rankings.
Once they're Elite he will post accordingly
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 19, 2023
New Old
8 7 UConn
17 18 Marquette
18 20 Creighton
22 22 Xavier
38 38 Providence
63 61 Seton Hall
78 78 St. John's
86 87 Butler
101 101 Villanova
154 155 DePaul
251 250 Georgetown
January 20 Team Sheets. MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Not sure I get the love for Creighton - is it because of their margin of victory in the games they are supposed to win?
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Not sure I get the love for Creighton - is it because of their margin of victory in the games they are supposed to win?
Margin of victory
We are their largetst loss at 11.
Arkansas is aging poorly but still a top 30 neutral court win OOC
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Creighton lost close games to good teams and played a difficult OOC schedule. With Kalkbrenner healthy, I expect them to show why they were ranked so highly in the preseason.
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Point
Herman can call anything he wants excellent as far as I am concerned. We need more Hermans on scoop.
Goose - A bit of a joke - see Herman calls all his articles "Excellent article..." Now MU actually has excellent Net numbers...
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Point
I love his excellent articles.
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nm
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Goose - I though dry January meant giving up alcohol, not humor...
Point
I love his excellent articles.
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Point
Herman can call anything he wants excellent as far as I am concerned. We need more Hermans on scoop.
You want Scoop to be TWD??
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 20, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
17 17 Marquette
18 18 Creighton
22 22 Xavier
39 38 Providence
63 63 Seton Hall
83 78 St. John's
86 86 Butler
91 101 Villanova
155 154 DePaul
250 251 Georgetown
January 21 Team Sheets. MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Wow, Villanova’s win at St. John’s moved them 10 spots up?
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Wow, Villanova’s win at St. John’s moved them 10 spots up?
lot easier to move up the further down you are
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Marquette’s NET is 15 today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 21, 2023
New Old
7 8 UConn
15 17 Marquette
19 18 Creighton
25 22 Xavier
40 39 Providence
70 63 Seton Hall
81 83 St. John's
86 86 Butler
91 91 Villanova
153 155 DePaul
248 250 Georgetown
January 22 Team Sheets . MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Marquette’s NET is 15 today
9-9-9 has to get up earlier to scoop you!
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Honestly b thought we may have knocked the Hall out of Q1 status
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Radford, our first opponent of the season, just jumped up from a Q4 win to a Q3 win.
Maybe that's why Marquette developed so fast. While most of the other Power Conference schools were easing their way in with Q4 games in game 1, Marquette scheduled a respectable Q3 and accelerated their development.
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Marquette’s NET is 14 Today
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No wonder the fear for facing Radford at that time.
Radford, our first opponent of the season, just jumped up from a Q4 win to a Q3 win.
Maybe that's why Marquette developed so fast. While most of the other Power Conference schools were easing their way in with Q4 games in game 1, Marquette scheduled a respectable Q3 and accelerated their development.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 22,2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
14 15 Marquette
20 19 Creighton
25 25 Xavier
40 40 Providence
68 70 Seton Hall
79 81 St. John's
89 91 Villanova
97 86 Butler
152 153 DePaul
248 248 Georgetown
January 23 Team Sheets. MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings January 23 , 2023
AP
13. X
16. MU
19. U Conn
23. Cooley & Company
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton
Coaches
12. X
15. MU
20. U Conn
21. Cooley & Company
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton
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Marquette’s NET Is 15 Tuesday
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 23
New Old
7 7 UConn
15 14 Marquette
20 20 Creighton
25 25 Xavier
40 40 Providence
68 68 Seton Hall
79 79 St. John's
87 89 Villanova
97 97 Butler
152 152 DePaul
246 248 Georgetown
January 24 Team Sheets . MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 23
New Old
7 7 UConn
15 14 Marquette
20 20 Creighton
25 25 Xavier
40 40 Providence
68 68 Seton Hall
79 79 St. John's
87 89 Villanova
97 97 Butler
152 152 DePaul
246 248 Georgetown
January 24 Team Sheets . MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Badgers loss dropped us a spot.
Baylor win was good for us.
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Badgers loss dropped us a spot.
Baylor win was good for us.
Both of those work for me.
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Generally speaking, where in the NET rankings do you draw the line for in vs out of the ncaa tournament? 68?
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Generally speaking, where in the NET rankings do you draw the line for in vs out of the ncaa tournament? 68?
Not a hard, fast number. Top-20 is virtual lock. Top-30 is likely in. Top-40 is a good bet for high majors. 41-75, depends a lot on resume, other metrics, but with the odds declining as you go down.
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Not a hard, fast number. Top-20 is virtual lock. Top-30 is likely in. Top-40 is a good bet for high majors. 41-75, depends a lot on resume, other metrics, but with the odds declining as you go down.
What we want to know Brew is whether Wisky could be out of the NCAA tournament with their current trajectory?
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Rutgers made the First Four with a NET of 78. They also needed 7 Q1 wins to make it with that low of a NET.
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What we want to know Brew is whether Wisky could be out of the NCAA tournament with their current trajectory?
Could be with current trajectory? Of course, cause that would mean that they keep losing.
Right now? No chance. Not even sweating the play in.
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Badgers loss dropped us a spot.
Baylor win was good for us.
And this is why I simply cannot understand the scoopers who say they want to see UW lose despite the fact that it may hurt us come Selection Sunday. Every little bit counts. After Selection Sunday? Hell yes, I hope they get embarrassed on the court, assuming they are in the tourney.
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Could be with current trajectory? Of course, cause that would mean that they keep losing.
Right now? No chance. Not even sweating the play in.
Well it isn't Feb yet. Hopefully they continue to lose and miss the tournament.
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And this is why I simply cannot understand the scoopers who say they want to see UW lose despite the fact that it may hurt us come Selection Sunday. Every little bit counts. After Selection Sunday? Hell yes, I hope they get embarrassed on the court, assuming they are in the tourney.
If MU takes care of business, it won't matter. 23-8 (Big east tourney omitted) and a Badger toilet spin is completely meaningless. MU can't get into single digits without running the table. So to me, the difference between a NET of 14 vs 15 is a talking point but ultimately irrelevant.
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And this is why I simply cannot understand the scoopers who say they want to see UW lose despite the fact that it may hurt us come Selection Sunday. Every little bit counts. After Selection Sunday? Hell yes, I hope they get embarrassed on the court, assuming they are in the tourney.
Scoop Snoop,
That unfortunate defeat when they shot out of their asses won't matter. We control our own destiny.
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What we want to know Brew is whether Wisky could be out of the NCAA tournament with their current trajectory?
Scoop has gone from roiling its fingers from Marquette's bubble chances under Wojo to now worrying about Bucky's. Refreshing as a mountain stream.
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MU is Waaaay beyond needing the help of UW re: our NET.
I … like most MU fans … want to see
UW lose every game. I hope MD takes them out tomorrow
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Muggsy
My interest in how UW does is that same level as my interest in how Bradley finishes out the year, which is zero interest level. MU is in control of their destiny and that is all they could ask for going into the season. Get a win at UConn or Creighton and what Bucky does will have little impact on the Warriors.
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Excuse my ignorance but I don't gamble other than skins with my buddies on occasion. What exactly are MU's F4 odds right now or Championship odds? What does +4000 mean? Ty.
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Muggsy
My interest in how UW does is that same level as my interest in how Bradley finishes out the year, which is zero interest level. MU is in control of their destiny and that is all they could ask for going into the season. Get a win at UConn or Creighton and what Bucky does will have little impact on the Warriors.
Exactly right Goose. It only impacts my enjoyment of them losing and the trolls being mia on Scoop. :)
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Muggsy
If that is accurate, if you bet $100 on MU making the FF you get $4000 if they make it. I did see the odds of MU winning NC has moved from 80-1 to 60-1 over the past ten days.
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Muggsy
If that is accurate, if you bet $100 on MU making the FF you get $4000 if they make it. I did see the odds of MU winning NC has moved from 80-1 to 60-1 over the past ten days.
My personality isn't suited towards gambling but that seems like a good F4 bet.
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Keep in mind peeps that MU is #129 in 3pt percentage and yet have the most efficient offense in the country. I truly believe we can elevate our accuracy from downtown.
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And this is why I simply cannot understand the scoopers who say they want to see UW lose despite the fact that it may hurt us come Selection Sunday. Every little bit counts. After Selection Sunday? Hell yes, I hope they get embarrassed on the court, assuming they are in the tourney.
The Baylor win over Kansas helped the Bears jump from 15 to 13 in NET. That dropped Virginia to 14 and Marquette to 15.
The Badgers losing by 3, when predicted to lose by 4, had minimal impact.
*Corrected the margin of defeat and predicted margin of defeat. I originally had them reversed.*
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I will sacrifice a seed line to see the Badgers crater. Not even a question.
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My personality isn't suited towards gambling but that seems like a good F4 bet.
Incorrect odds. Marquette is +800 to make the final four.
I.e bet 100 to win 800. Winning the whole tournament is 100 to pay 4000
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I will sacrifice a seed line to see the Badgers crater. Not even a question.
I's be happy to see them go 0-for the rest of the decade.
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I's be happy to see them go 0-for the rest of the decade.
Me, too, but the obsession over them here is little brother-ish
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Their rivals. In general, I root for rivals to lose.
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I will sacrifice a seed line to see the Badgers crater. Not even a question.
Absolutely. This is consistent with my oft-stated (although unoriginal) position that my two favorite teams are Marquette and whoever is playing Wisconsin.
I suppose I would see it differently if MU was really sweating it out on the bubble in a given year. But if we're talking about a possible difference between a 5/6, 4/5 or 3/4...yeah, I want to see the Badgers get pounded.
Just. Keep. Winning.
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I will sacrifice a seed line to see the Badgers crater. Not even a question.
Same here. Besides, the Badgers sucking would just be a minuscule factor in dropping MU a seed line anyway. With all of the logistics that go into scheduling the tournament games and seeding the teams, we would never know if that specific game is what dropped MU a seed line (or if they dropped a seed line at all).
Regarding UW, it does bother me how much tournament success they’ve had in the last 10 years versus us and I would definitely love to see that script flipped. Once it has been flipped, then I think I’ll join the others on here and not care much about UW. Just my feelings and I also respect the folks who couldn’t care less about UW.
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The Baylor win over Kansas helped the Bears jump from 15 to 13 in NET. That dropped Virginia to 14 and Marquette to 15.
The Badgers losing by 4, when predicted to lose by 3, had minimal impact.
This is the correct answer, the Baylor game had significantly more impact than the UW game. Further, despite them leapfrogging us with the win, it helps solidify them as a q1a win rather than a q1b win. The cutoff is 15, had they lost they would have dropped below that threshold and been q1b.
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The Baylor win over Kansas helped the Bears jump from 15 to 13 in NET. That dropped Virginia to 14 and Marquette to 15.
The Badgers losing by 4, when predicted to lose by 3, had minimal impact.
Yep. I always cheer for the Badgers to lose by 1. It piles up the Ls for Bucky while having a minimal impact on our computer numbers.
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Generally speaking, where in the NET rankings do you draw the line for in vs out of the ncaa tournament? 68?
The NET isn't really used that way. It's a way to sort your resume, not really reflected on your own probability of making it. Thus, we would use the NET rating of our opponents to sort our own resume for evaluation, but having the NET ranking of 15 itself isn't actually used. However, that's not to say there is no correlation between the two, since winning/losing and how well you play affect both your resume and your NET.
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Incorrect odds. Marquette is +800 to make the final four.
I.e bet 100 to win 800. Winning the whole tournament is 100 to pay 4000
I laid a wager at 150-1 right before the season tipoff, then a few more on 12/17 and 1/7 at 100-1, and then another that I got at 60-1 Sunday night before the odds shifted down to 40-1.
My site offers to cash you out of bets as their risk level goes up. They've already offered to double my money on the 150-1 bet made November 2nd. As MU advances in the tourney the cash out offers will increase substantially. I'd estimate a run to the Elite 8 would generate an offer of roughly $10k to avoid the $28,850 payout they'd have to make if MU won it all. The total of my 4 wagers is $370.
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I laid a wager at 150-1 right before the season tipoff, then a few more on 12/17 and 1/7 at 100-1, and then another that I got at 60-1 Sunday night before the odds shifted down to 40-1.
My site offers to cash you out of bets as their risk level goes up. They've already offered to double my money on the 150-1 bet made November 2nd. As MU advances in the tourney the cash out offers will increase substantially. I'd estimate a run to the Elite 8 would generate an offer of roughly $10k to avoid the $28,850 payout they'd have to make if MU won it all. The total of my 4 wagers is $370.
That seems high to me. The guy who bet $5 on the four leg parlay to win $72K only had the option of cashing out for ~$1.5K after the first three legs hit.
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Yep. I always cheer for the Badgers to lose by 1. It piles up the Ls for Bucky while having a minimal impact on our computer numbers.
Plus it tears their collective hearts out to lose close games. Win,win,win.
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Their rivals. In general, I root for rivals to lose.
They’re…….not to all JB but..
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Their rivals. In general, I root for rivals to lose.
They’re rivals, so I wants us to beats them, but some rivals I can root for when they’re not playing us (Villanova, Xavier for example). Wisconsin? Never.
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Marquette’s NET is 16 Wednesday
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Big East Net Rankings as of games of January 24, 2023
New Old
6 7 UConn
16 15 Marquette
21 20 Creighton
25 25 Xavier
39 40 Providence
68 68 Seton Hall
79 79 St. John's
88 87 Villanova
97 97 Butler
155 152 DePaul
240 246 Georgetown
January 25 Team Sheets . MU is 25
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Well it isn't Feb yet. Hopefully they continue to lose and miss the tournament.
Their goal has to be .500 or better in the Big 10. 10-10 gives them a good shot, 11-9 and I think they're a lock. They have a ton of winnable games, but that's mostly because the Big 10 is the bubble conference this year. Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State, and Northwestern are all in the bubble mix (and UW's first three February opponents) while Michigan (twice in February) is close to that conversation. They also get Rutgers and Purdue at home.
Gard always seems to find a way, so I'm not betting against them just yet.
Annoying Bucky note...according to Shot Quality, Chucky Hepburn should have scored 0.74 points per shot against us. It was his worst game of the season in terms of shot selection. But instead, he averaged 1.9 points per shot, a career high. You can't guard luck, and that was the most rabbit out of his ass performance Hepburn has ever had.
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Marquette’s NET is 16 Wednesday
Because of the remaining schedule, MU might be close to its NET ceiling. Unless they win at least 2 of the 3 remaining Quad 1 games, and avoid losing any of the others, I expect that NETto drift down slightly.
It’s also going to be hard for MU to rise above the 4 seed line unless some of the teams currently above them fall on hard times. Those 6 Big 12 teams currently in the top 17 are going to have a lot to say about MU’s landing spot as they battle with each other.
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Because of the remaining schedule, MU might be close to its NET ceiling. Unless they win at least 2 of the 3 remaining Quad 1 games, and avoid losing any of the others, I expect that NETto drift down slightly.
It’s also going to be hard for MU to rise above the 4 seed line unless some of the teams currently above them fall on hard times. Those 6 Big 12 teams currently in the top 17 are going to have a lot to say about MU’s landing spot as they battle with each other.
Depends on the margin of victory on those expected wins.
Of all those B12 teams, I’d assume the committee would try to not match up too many potential 2v3 B12 matchups, which could play in Marquette’s favor if they are neck and neck for the 3 line with one of the B12 squads.
Those teams will cannibalize each other quite a bit as well, so a few should fall some.
It’ll take a monumental effort to move up to the 3 line, but I don’t think Marquette can only lose 1 game to get there.
They can afford 2 more Ls imo, especially if they still win the BE and if the metrics stay around the top 15 or better
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Depends on the margin of victory on those expected wins.
Of all those B12 teams, I’d assume the committee would try to not match up too many potential 2v3 B12 matchups, which could play in Marquette’s favor if they are neck and neck for the 3 line with one of the B12 squads.
Those teams will cannibalize each other quite a bit as well, so a few should fall some.
It’ll take a monumental effort to move up to the 3 line, but I don’t think Marquette can only lose 1 game to get there.
They can afford 2 more Ls imo, especially if they still win the BE and if the metrics stay around the top 15 or better
I don’t think we really disagree much, if at all.
It should be easy enough to separate the Big 12 teams to avoid 2-3 matchups in the third round. They likely aren’t all going to end up in the top 16, and if 4 of them are in the 2-3 seed range they can all be put into separate regions.
I’m also not sure how much impact margin of victory has in the overall scheme of things. I don’t think it helps as much as another Quad 1 win.
Selfishly, I’m less interested in MUs seed (as long as they stay in the 3-6 range) than where they are located. I’m going to be in Orlando visiting one of our alumni daughters that week and we would love to see MU play there.
Because the current highest seeds would likely be placed in other locations, it is looking like Orlando will have no 1 or 2 seeds, and maybe no 3 seeds. As of today, Albany and Orlando look like the most likely destinations for an MU team with a 4 seed.
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Yea when I typed that I wasn’t sure if it made a ton of sense but I hit post anyway.
We can agree on one thing though- Orlando placement would be great!
I’d definitely travel to spend the first weekend there.
Last season Brew did some nice work with potential/likely destinations for Marquette.
As it gets closer I will be looking out for that and probably book hotels ahead in the 3/4 most likely locations and then cancel the ones that don’t hit.
I’ve never traveled for a Marquette tourney game, this is the year
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Because of the remaining schedule, MU might be close to its NET ceiling. Unless they win at least 2 of the 3 remaining Quad 1 games, and avoid losing any of the others, I expect that NETto drift down slightly.
It’s also going to be hard for MU to rise above the 4 seed line unless some of the teams currently above them fall on hard times. Those 6 Big 12 teams currently in the top 17 are going to have a lot to say about MU’s landing spot as they battle with each other.
I am sure someone on this board can model the end NET result for each of the possible 1024 W/L combinations of our remaining 10 games and report back the high, low, and median NET result for the boards viewing pleasure.
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I am sure someone on this board can model the end NET result for each of the possible 1024 W/L losses combinations of our remaining 10 games and report back the high, low, and median NET result for the boards viewing pleasure.
It's impossible to say because NET takes factors other unpredictable data points such as offensive and defensive efficiencies, other teams' performances, etc. to come up with the NET ranking.
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It's impossible to say because NET takes factors other unpredictable data points such as offensive and defensive efficiencies, other teams' performances, etc. to come up with the NET ranking.
He's not being serious
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He's not being serious
Sure, but Torvik actually provides tools to do such a thing...High (win out) 7, Low (lose out) 94, Median (do about what's expected) 14.
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He's not being serious
I assumed he was kidding about running over 1000 iterations, but I see so many people who don't really understand what the NET is that I thought he might have really thought it was calculable. Had to be sure! Who knows what might have happened if I was wrong! :D
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I assumed he was kidding about running over 1000 iterations, but I see so many people who don't really understand what the NET is that I thought he might have really thought it was calculable. Had to be sure! Who knows what might have happened if I was wrong! :D
Great, now I don't know ball, or NET. Not sure how I'll survive.
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Sure, but Torvik actually provides tools to do such a thing...High (win out) 7, Low (lose out) 94, Median (do about what's expected) 14.
They do...but it's not an actual calculation. It's a rough guess. There are too many factors that go into NET (not to mention that we don't know everything that goes into NET) to calculate out like that.
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Great, now I don't know ball, or NET. Not sure how I'll survive.
You could always follow pro golfing?
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They do...but it's not an actual calculation. It's a rough guess. There are too many factors that go into NET (not to mention that we don't know everything that goes into NET) to calculate out like that.
Right. But at this point in the season, It'd be hard to deviate from the 7-94 range, even with the millions of variables from other teams performance. And even doing what's expected should still land us at 14 or 15. Not sure why y'all want to act like it's inconceivable to estimate right now.
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Great, now I don't know ball, or NET. Not sure how I'll survive.
I've never known ball. I'm still standing. You'll be alright.
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Right. But at this point in the season, It'd be hard to deviate from the 7-94 range, even with the millions of variables from other teams performance. And even doing what's expected should still land us at 14 or 15. Not sure why y'all want to act like it's inconceivable to estimate right now.
It's not about it being inconcievable to estimate. It's that PointWarrior didn't make the post to actually ask for an estimate. He made it as part of his "computer rankings are dumb" schtick. Unless I misinterpreted in which case, mea culpa
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Just to be clear, we're only having this conversation because they decided to not schedule a game until Saturday and we don't know how to discuss anything else in the meantime, right??
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Hah, ok. Regardless of seriousness of the question/proposal, I was curious about the answer, and found the results interesting.
Additionally, I was curious what the minimum MU could win and still make the tourney (theoretically), as long as they win Butler & DePaul @ home, and @ GTown...they could still make the tourney. I don't expect that, or want to test the theory, but it's interesting. NET would be ~37 by going 3-7 in the last 10 with those Ws.
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Hah, ok. Regardless of seriousness of the question/proposal, I was curious about the answer, and found the results interesting.
Additionally, I was curious what the minimum MU could win and still make the tourney (theoretically), as long as they win Butler & DePaul @ home, and @ GTown...they could still make the tourney. I don't expect that, or want to test the theory, but it's interesting. NET would be ~37 by going 3-7 in the last 10 with those Ws.
If we have an NET of 37 on selection Sunday, we won't even be close to the bubble so likely means we could even lose one or two more. We're pretty much a lock but agreed, let's not test that theory.
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Right. But at this point in the season, It'd be hard to deviate from the 7-94 range, even with the millions of variables from other teams performance. And even doing what's expected should still land us at 14 or 15. Not sure why y'all want to act like it's inconceivable to estimate right now.
I was kidding about someone on scoop running a 1024 outcome simulation. But it is cool that Torvik does predictors...
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If we have an NET of 37 on selection Sunday, we won't even be close to the bubble so likely means we could even lose one or two more. We're pretty much a lock but agreed, let's not test that theory.
Maybe his predictor is bunk, but if you flip any of those 3 to a loss, NET drops from ~37 -> ~63. So...lets win those 3, and a lot more :)
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Maybe his predictor is bunk
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/de/Bunk_Moreland.jpg)
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Because of the remaining schedule, MU might be close to its NET ceiling. Unless they win at least 2 of the 3 remaining Quad 1 games, and avoid losing any of the others, I expect that NETto drift down slightly.
It’s also going to be hard for MU to rise above the 4 seed line unless some of the teams currently above them fall on hard times. Those 6 Big 12 teams currently in the top 17 are going to have a lot to say about MU’s landing spot as they battle with each other.
Barring some big results, I agree. Especially as our predictive metrics are likely peaking. I think we can get to a 3, and if some of those ahead of us slip that will be just as helpful, if not more, than us doing our part. Win out and there's an argument we can play our way up to a 1, but digging into our resume I think a 1/2 is highly unlikely, even if we win all the way to MSG.
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I mean if they keep blowing out top 100 teams by 20 on the road the sky is the limit. Get that sweet sweet Houston style NET
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 25, 2023
New Old
7 6 UConn
16 16 Marquette
20 21 Creighton
22 25 Xavier
35 39 Providence
67 68 Seton Hall
84 79 St. John's
89 88 Villanova
102 97 Butler
155 155 DePaul
242 240 Georgetown
January 26 Team Sheets. MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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What’s keeping UConn’s NET so high? Close losses?
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What’s keeping UConn’s NET so high? Close losses?
IIRC they were number 1 for a while. It might not seem like it, but they've likely fallen quite a bit. All we see the NET rank, we don't see the actual NET score. So the distance between #1 and #7 in NET could actually be larger than the distance between #10 and #100 (unlikely it's that big but there is likely a lot of separation between each of the top 10).
As for why their NET is so high, it's because of how dominant they were to start the season. They literally each of their first 13 games by double digits including beating Alabama (#3 in NET currently) by 15 and Iowa State (#9) by 18 on neutral courts.
As the season goes on, each individual game means less and less. When they beat Florida by 20 on the road, that game was worth 10% of their NET score. Now when they lose to Xavier by 3 at home that game is only worth 4.2% of their NET score. As the season goes on, each individual score is going to change their overall NET less and less.
Finally, they only have 1 bad loss (by 11 at home to SJU). Their other 5 have all be Q1 losses and 3 of them have been by 6 points or less. Their early season dominance balances that out.
All that being said, UConn looks broken. I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 500 or worse in conference.
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What’s keeping UConn’s NET so high? Close losses?
They won their first 13 games by double digits, including teams that have proven to be elite like Alabama and Iowa State. That props them up a ton.
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Thanks TAMU and Brew for the insight. I know I'm bias but it just feels like they should be lower than 7 with 6 losses.
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They won their first 13 games by double digits, including teams that have proven to be elite like Alabama and Iowa State. That props them up a ton.
If will be interesting how they will use the NET in their case for seeding if that holds.
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Thanks TAMU and Brew for the insight. I know I'm bias but it just feels like they should be lower than 7 with 6 losses.
I was expecting that St Johns loss to ding them pretty good but like the others have mentioned, they must have had a decent enough cushion.
NET is by no means perfect, but I think it’s actually a good metric and if you look at a team’s schedule you can usually diagnose why their ranking is what it is.
I get a kick out of people on Twitter trashing the NET because they think their team is ranked too low and then you look at their schedule and it’s… 2 point win in a buy game, 5 point win in another buy game, 12 point loss at home vs mid major, etc.
We’ll see how it plays out but I think the committee will take UCONN’s NET ranking at face value and not chalk it up as an aberration like they possibly would with one or two other teams.
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And this is why I simply cannot understand the scoopers who say they want to see UW lose despite the fact that it may hurt us come Selection Sunday. Every little bit counts. After Selection Sunday? Hell yes, I hope they get embarrassed on the court, assuming they are in the tourney.
I rarely post, but NO.
I dont give 2 sh!ts about Badger losses hurting us. F&%'em to the moon and back.
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TAMU has it right. Cheer for them to lose every game by 1 so they are always Q1 or Q2 but rarely make the tournament.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 26,2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
16 16 Marquette
19 20 Creighton
23 22 Xavier
35 35 Providence
67 67 Seton Hall
85 84 St. John's
92 89 Villanova
102 102 Butler
158 155 DePaul
244 242 Georgetown
January 27 Team Sheets . MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East MET rankings as of games of January 27, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
16 16 Marquette
19 19 Creighton
23 23 Xavier
35 35 Providence
66 67 Seton Hall
85 85 St. John's
92 92 Villanova
101 102 Butler
158 158 DePaul
245 244 Georgetown
January 28 Team Sheets. MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 28, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
12 16 Marquette
18 19 Creighton
27 23 Xavier
58 66 Seton Hall
86 85 St. John's
90 92 Villanova
111 101 Butler
166 158 DePaul
245 245 Georgetown
January 29 Team Sheets . MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 28, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
12 16 Marquette
18 19 Creighton
27 23 Xavier
34 35 Providence
58 66 Seton Hall
86 85 St. John's
90 92 Villanova
111 101 Butler
166 158 DePaul
245 245 Georgetown
January 29 Team Sheets . MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 28, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
12 16 Marquette
18 19 Creighton
27 23 Xavier
58 66 Seton Hall
86 85 St. John's
90 92 Villanova
111 101 Butler
166 158 DePaul
245 245 Georgetown
January 29 Team Sheets . MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Providence has left the BE? Herman?!? wtf?
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Thanks Herman
That’s a nice jump!
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Thanks Herman
That’s a nice jump!
Who knew a win over mighty DePaul could catapult us to new heights?!?!
(I know it was stuff that happened in other games, but still ... )
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Providence has left the BE? Herman?!? wtf?
Correction noted ( I was distracted by my beautiful bride getting ready for church lol)
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Correction noted ( I was distracted by my beautiful bride getting ready for church lol)
God Bless you, Herman!
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Who knew a win over mighty DePaul could catapult us to new heights?!?!
(I know it was stuff that happened in other games, but still ... )
Exactly, a surprisingly fun jump on DePaul day.
Don’t underestimate how clutch that 2H blowout was, a close win woulda cost MU a few spots
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Love to see it
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So, it looks like we knocked DePaul off the bubble. :D
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Exactly, a surprisingly fun jump on DePaul day.
Don’t underestimate how clutch that 2H blowout was, a close win woulda cost MU a few spots
Yep. margin of victory, especially compared to expectation, is a big thing with NET, unfortunately.
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Big game at the Wachovia Center this morning.
I’d like to see Providence drop one today and drop to 8-3 because coach Ed and those guys have a lot of Moxie when it comes to getting big wins when they need them.
I’d like to see them drop further behind in the chase for the BE title.
As for NET purposes, Providence is currently at 34, 4 spots away from becoming a quad 1 win at home.
Nova is at 90, 15 spots away from the top 75 cutoff for a road Q1.
Their end of the season schedule is brutal
Providence, @MU, @Creighton next 3 and still have @Providence, @X, @SH, v Creighton and v UConn left.
That’s an insane gauntlet to end the season for an already underachieving 10-10 Villanova squad.
Itll be tough to find a way to finish above .500 in Neptunes first season
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Marquette’s NET is 12 Monday
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Big game at the Wachovia Center this morning.
I’d like to see Providence drop one today and drop to 8-3 because coach Ed and those guys have a lot of Moxie when it comes to getting big wins when they need them.
I’d like to see them drop further behind in the chase for the BE title.
As for NET purposes, Providence is currently at 34, 4 spots away from becoming a quad 1 win at home.
Nova is at 90, 15 spots away from the top 75 cutoff for a road Q1.
Their end of the season schedule is brutal
Providence, @MU, @Creighton next 3 and still have @Providence, @X, @SH, v Creighton and v UConn left.
That’s an insane gauntlet to end the season for an already underachieving 10-10 Villanova squad.
Itll be tough to find a way to finish above .500 in Neptunes first season
Cannot believe they only played 9 conference games with 11 to go. Who ever made that schedule screwed them big time.
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Cannot believe they only played 9 conference games with 11 to go. Who ever made that schedule screwed them big time.
Or helped then but putting a many of them as delayed as possible so that Moore could play in as many games as possible
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 29, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
12 12 Marquette
18 18 Creighton
27 27 Xavier
32 34 Providence
57 58 Seton Hall
87 86 St. John's
90 90 Villanova
110 111 Butler
163 166 DePaul
241 245 Georgetown
January 30 Team Sheets. MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Exactly, a surprisingly fun jump on DePaul day.
Don’t underestimate how clutch that 2H blowout was, a close win woulda cost MU a few spots
Surprised at the bump, as well. Strange in that I seem to recall that X did not drop or only dropped one when it lost at DePaul.
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Surprised at the bump, as well. Strange in that I seem to recall that X did not drop or only dropped one when it lost at DePaul.
I don't follow it closely enough but it might have been more due to the Miss St. win over TCU or other teams around us moving down or a combination of both.
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Yep. margin of victory, especially compared to expectation, is a big thing with NET, unfortunately.
If people better understood the NET, it wouldn't be "unfortunate"
This is a case of correlation, not causation. The NET is partly based on O and D efficiencies. If you play better than your team's O/D efficiency rating, then you're going to improve your NET. Similarly, "expected" margins in a game are often predicated on teams' analytics, aka their O/D efficiency ratings. So if the analytics say it should be a 5 pt game b/c of the probabilities based on metrics, but one team plays better than their metrics, then you'll see a NET jump above the normal boost you'd get for the win/loss.
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A simplified way to look at it is game lines/spreads.
Those usually mirror metrics data like KenPom.
If your team “covers the spread” and wins by more than Vegas predicted they would, the net improves. If your team is predicted to win by 15 and wins by 5, the net worsens
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Big East Poll Rankings January 30, 2023
AP
14. MU
16. X
17. Cooley & Company
24. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes:
Creighton
Coaches
12. MU
15. X
17. Cooley & Company
23. U Conn
Others Receiving Votes:
Creighton
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Creighton will join this group soon enough, possibly next Monday, to the surprise of no one here.
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Creighton will join this group soon enough, possibly next Monday, to the surprise of no one here.
Will UConn still be there?
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Will UConn still be there?
A week from now? Yes. Two weeks out? Uncertain, the future is.
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Yep. margin of victory, especially compared to expectation, is a big thing with NET, unfortunately.
How would we know how big a thing it is? There are apparently so many things that go into the NET formula that, even though margin of victory in a particular game might be a factor, it might have minimal impact.
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If people better understood the NET, it wouldn't be "unfortunate"
This is a case of correlation, not causation. The NET is partly based on O and D efficiencies. If you play better than your team's O/D efficiency rating, then you're going to improve your NET. Similarly, "expected" margins in a game are often predicated on teams' analytics, aka their O/D efficiency ratings. So if the analytics say it should be a 5 pt game b/c of the probabilities based on metrics, but one team plays better than their metrics, then you'll see a NET jump above the normal boost you'd get for the win/loss.
Can you really say what makes a team’s NET go up or down a couple of spaces without knowing the details of the formula that goes into it?
I assume that there is some complex formula that crunches a number of factors and comes up with some kind of number with a few decimal places that might be called an “NET Index”. Then the teams are ranked in order based on that index.
All we see is the NET ranking but not the index number that ranking is based on. it’s inevitable that the gap between two teams ranked consecutively will not always be the same.
MU going up a few spots after last weekend suggests to me that the teams in the 12-16 range are pretty tightly bunched.
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If people better understood the NET, it wouldn't be "unfortunate"
This is a case of correlation, not causation. The NET is partly based on O and D efficiencies. If you play better than your team's O/D efficiency rating, then you're going to improve your NET. Similarly, "expected" margins in a game are often predicated on teams' analytics, aka their O/D efficiency ratings. So if the analytics say it should be a 5 pt game b/c of the probabilities based on metrics, but one team plays better than their metrics, then you'll see a NET jump above the normal boost you'd get for the win/loss.
Are margin victory of early season games weighted less than games later in the season. There can be a lot of surprising results (or bad predictions in early season games).
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We don't know the NET and we shouldn't. For years, no one knew exactly what went into RPI. Then it got figured out, we saw teams start to game the RPI system, and within a couple years it was completely broken. Not saying the RPI was ever the best answer, but once people could calculate it for themselves, it was borderline useless.
NET clearly weighs efficiency margins heavily. As past efficiency margins are generally the best predictor of future results that we have so far, I'm perfectly fine with that as the dominant metric. As we see the importance of non-NET resume metrics in selection and non-NET predictive metrics in seeding, it feels like the Selection Committee is willing to use the NET as a guideline and then bring in numerous other factors in decision making. I may not always agree with those decisions, but I feel the process that brings them about is generally sound.
It's better that we don't know the NET, and honestly, when I hear people like Terrence Oglesby crying "Clemson won and went down in the NET, the system stinks" it makes me want to cram a bullhorn in their eardrum and start screaming. Beat the teams you're supposed to be by the margins you're expected to win by and you'll stay where you're at. Beat them by more and you'll move up. Beat them by less and you'll move down. It really isn't that hard.
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We don't know the NET and we shouldn't. For years, no one knew exactly what went into RPI. Then it got figured out, we saw teams start to game the RPI system, and within a couple years it was completely broken. Not saying the RPI was ever the best answer, but once people could calculate it for themselves, it was borderline useless.
NET clearly weighs efficiency margins heavily. As past efficiency margins are generally the best predictor of future results that we have so far, I'm perfectly fine with that as the dominant metric. As we see the importance of non-NET resume metrics in selection and non-NET predictive metrics in seeding, it feels like the Selection Committee is willing to use the NET as a guideline and then bring in numerous other factors in decision making. I may not always agree with those decisions, but I feel the process that brings them about is generally sound.
It's better that we don't know the NET, and honestly, when I hear people like Terrence Oglesby crying "Clemson won and went down in the NET, the system stinks" it makes me want to cram a bullhorn in their eardrum and start screaming. Beat the teams you're supposed to be by the margins you're expected to win by and you'll stay where you're at. Beat them by more and you'll move up. Beat them by less and you'll move down. It really isn't that hard.
It makes it sound like the NET is created by Vegas, not the NCAA.
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It makes it sound like the NET is created by Vegas, not the NCAA.
No Vegas now follows the NET, Kenpom
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No Vegas now follows the NET, Kenpom
<tinfoil at on> that's what they want you to believe.
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Big East NET ranking as of games of January 30,2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
11 12 Marquette
18 18 Creighton
27 27 Xavier
32 32 Providence
57 57 Seton Hall
88 87 St. John's
90 90 Villanova
110 110 Butler
163 163 DePaul
242 241 Georgetown
January 31 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Thank You Herman 11 Nice!!
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It makes it sound like the NET is created by Vegas, not the NCAA.
The NET is designed to determine the best teams. I have infinitely more faith in the NET doing that than a strict resume metric like RPI.
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Big East NET ranking as of games of January 30,2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
11 12 Marquette
18 18 Creighton
27 27 Xavier
32 32 Providence
57 57 Seton Hall
88 87 St. John's
90 90 Villanova
110 110 Butler
163 163 DePaul
242 241 Georgetown
January 31 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
If anyone is interested in the official NCAA NET team sheets, see here:
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/29868/teams/542200/team_sheet
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/29868
There is a little more info on the Warren Nolan, but the NCAA shows future opponents and where they sit in the quadrants.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 31, 2023
New Old
8 7 UConn
11 11 Marquette
17 18 Creighton
28 27 Xavier
35 32 Providence
57 57 Seton Hall
87 88 St. John's
90 90 Villanova
111 110 Butler
163 163 DePaul
243 242 Georgetown
January 31 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 31, 2023
New Old
8 7 UConn
11 11 Marquette
17 18 Creighton
28 27 Xavier
35 32 Providence
57 57 Seton Hall
87 88 St. John's
90 90 Villanova
111 110 Butler
163 163 DePaul
243 242 Georgetown
January 31 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Lol - so after all the chatter about UConn staying at 7 despite losing several games, all it took was a win at DePaul to knock them down a spot. 😊
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Lol - so after all the chatter abou7t UConn staying at 7 despite losing several games, all it took was a win at DePaul to knock them down a spot. 😊
In reality, Kansas jumped Uconn. The Jayhawks beat Kansas State by 12, which is a much better win than UConn beating DePaul by 14.
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Beat the teams you're supposed to be by the margins you're expected to win by and you'll stay where you're at. Beat them by more and you'll move up. Beat them by less and you'll move down. It really isn't that hard.
It may not be quite that simple because you have to take into account what the teams around you do.
Using the UConn-Kansas situation as an example, UConn basically did what they were supposed to at DePaul, but Kansas did something better and jumped past them.
I’m not convinced that margin of victory makes as much of a difference as some seem to think it does, though maybe I’m wrong. But, regardless of the margins, beating Kansas State adds more to the resume than beating DePaul, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Kansas moved up.
The other message should be that movements of a spot or two in the NET shouldn’t get anyone too excited. There will be a lot more shuffling in the weeks ahead, and it’s not as if the NCAA seedings perfectly reflect the NET. Kansas was already significantly ahead of UConn in everybody’s seed list.
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I think margin of victory is an easy to observe proxy for offensive and defensive efficiency, and that it fairly well correlates with exceeding expectations (or falling short of expectations).
Ie, it's not the fact that a 12 point win is worth less than a 20 point win, its that a 20 point win is more likely to be produced via better offensive and defensive efficiency levels, and if the "expected" outcome was a win by a tighter margin, then to produce a larger winning margin would likely mean exceeding the offensive and defensive efficiency predictions.
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It may not be quite that simple because you have to take into account what the teams around you do.
Using the UConn-Kansas situation as an example, UConn basically did what they were supposed to at DePaul, but Kansas did something better and jumped past them.
I’m not convinced that margin of victory makes as much of a difference as some seem to think it does, though maybe I’m wrong. But, regardless of the margins, beating Kansas State adds more to the resume than beating DePaul, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Kansas moved up.
The other message should be that movements of a spot or two in the NET shouldn’t get anyone too excited. There will be a lot more shuffling in the weeks ahead, and it’s not as if the NCAA seedings perfectly reflect the NET. Kansas was already significantly ahead of UConn in everybody’s seed list.
Huh??
Kansas beat Kstate by 12.
In your scenario. Both Uconn and Kansas won by double digits.
How bad you beat teams definitely matters. But Kansas beat the metrics margin of victory soundly against a team that was 16 in the NET. While Uconn be their margins soundly against #163.
Without knowing the exact NET forumla. Its still pretty simple to see how to have a good NET.
1. Beat good teams
2. If you lose lose to good teams
3. When you win cover the spread as much as possible.
4. When you lose dont lose by a lot/cover when youre a dog.
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Huh??
Kansas beat Kstate by 12.
In your scenario. Both Uconn and Kansas won by double digits.
How bad you beat teams definitely matters. But Kansas beat the metrics margin of victory soundly against a team that was 16 in the NET. While Uconn be their margins soundly against #163.
Without knowing the exact NET forumla. Its still pretty simple to see how to have a good NET.
1. Beat good teams
2. If you lose lose to good teams
3. When you win cover the spread as much as possible.
4. When you lose dont lose by a lot/cover when youre a dog.
The point still remains how much each of those things matters.
I think everyone agrees that number 1 is by far the biggest factor.
Covering the spread as much as possible suggests that winning by 50-60 points helps more than winning by a mere 15-20 points and coasting in. I’m skeptical about that.
To the extent that big victory margins help with some of the metrics, it begs the question of how much of a factor those metrics are in the NET formula itself, or whether they are included just included on NET team sheets to give the Selection Committee some additional input to help identify teams that may be better or worse than suggested by their NET ranking.
On the Kansas-UConn example, everyone would agree that beating Kansas State is more impressive than beating DePaul. For all we know, Kansas might have jumped UConn if they had won by 2 while UConn won by 25.
If someone knows exactly what the NET formula is and how much impact any one factor has, that hasn’t been publicized.
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I think margin of victory is an easy to observe proxy for offensive and defensive efficiency, and that it fairly well correlates with exceeding expectations (or falling short of expectations).
Ie, it's not the fact that a 12 point win is worth less than a 20 point win, its that a 20 point win is more likely to be produced via better offensive and defensive efficiency levels, and if the "expected" outcome was a win by a tighter margin, then to produce a larger winning margin would likely mean exceeding the offensive and defensive efficiency predictions.
Refreshing to know you're not the only one in the room that understands this.
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The point still remains how much each of those things matters.
I think everyone agrees that number 1 is by far the biggest factor.
Covering the spread as much as possible suggests that winning by 50-60 points helps more than winning by a mere 15-20 points and coasting in. I’m skeptical about that.
To the extent that big victory margins help with some of the metrics, it begs the question of how much of a factor those metrics are in the NET formula itself, or whether they are included just included on NET team sheets to give the Selection Committee some additional input to help identify teams that may be better or worse than suggested by their NET ranking.
On the Kansas-UConn example, everyone would agree that beating Kansas State is more impressive than beating DePaul. For all we know, Kansas might have jumped UConn if they had won by 2 while UConn won by 25.
If someone knows exactly what the NET formula is and how much impact any one factor has, that hasn’t been publicized.
It's been a minute since I was in a physics class, so engineer people feel free to correct me. (fwiw I 100% recall a teacher telling me this, but whether it's nonsense I leave to others, it makes the point). But we figured out how gravity works in a way that can be mathematically modeled because the math always worked so long as the Gravitation Constant was applied to the formula. Perhaps with knowing "exactly what the [gravitational mechanics are'" we wouldn't need that constant to fudge the numbers, but it doesn't really matter does it? We can still drop a ball off a lab table and predict how long it will take to hit the floor.
I say that because it's not strictly speaking *necessary* to know *exactly* how the NET formula is because there's sufficient observation of how different outcomes move teams in NET rankings. We can *accurately* describe what it takes to improve one's NET even if we can't *precisely* say what factor moved it by what margins. Drive your ppp up, limit the ppp you allow, and doing that more than you're predicted to, and your NET will improve.
Do that, and you'll win games, and by big margins too.
The rest is kinda noise.
As to how the committee uses NET or other metrics, I'll leave that to Brew to expound on. I don't even play a bracketologist on internet message boards.
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Covering the spread as much as possible suggests that winning by 50-60 points helps more than winning by a mere 15-20 points and coasting in. I’m skeptical about that.
People have suggested that the NET should adopt a model with diminishing returns where the more you beat a team by, the less it matters, but based on actual results, that doesn't seem to be the case. Every year there are teams with high NET scores that can only be explained by the 30-50 point beatings they put on their cupcakes because the rest of their resume is poor.
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It's been a minute since I was in a physics class, so engineer people feel free to correct me. (fwiw I 100% recall a teacher telling me this, but whether it's nonsense I leave to others, it makes the point). But we figured out how gravity works in a way that can be mathematically modeled because the math always worked so long as the Gravitation Constant was applied to the formula. Perhaps with knowing "exactly what the [gravitational mechanics are'" we wouldn't need that constant to fudge the numbers, but it doesn't really matter does it? We can still drop a ball off a lab table and predict how long it will take to hit the floor.
I say that because it's not strictly speaking *necessary* to know *exactly* how the NET formula is because there's sufficient observation of how different outcomes move teams in NET rankings. We can *accurately* describe what it takes to improve one's NET even if we can't *precisely* say what factor moved it by what margins. Drive your ppp up, limit the ppp you allow, and doing that more than you're predicted to, and your NET will improve.
Do that, and you'll win games, and by big margins too.
The rest is kinda noise.
As to how the committee uses NET or other metrics, I'll leave that to Brew to expound on. I don't even play a bracketologist on internet message boards.
Sort of on gravity, but won't go into details because Dr. Blackheart will beat me up because I'm a nerd. By the way his house remodeling sucks.
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Marquette’s Net Is 11 Thursday
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Marquette’s Net Is 11 Thursday
Thanks. Doesn’t help that we woke up with our first Q3 loss.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 1, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
11 11 Marquette
17 17 Creighton
26 28 Xavier
36 35 Providence
53 57 Seton Hall
89 90 Villanova
96 87 St. John's
110 111 Butler
165 163 DePaul
243 243 Georgetown
February 2 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Thanks. Doesn’t help that we woke up with our first Q3 loss.
Not yet according to the Warren Nolan data, but the Badger game is teetering on the brink.
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Thanks. Doesn’t help that we woke up with our first Q3 loss.
I am fine with that.
As an aside, ran across this explanation of NET
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium)
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Villanova moved up a spot by losing to MU. MI was never going to get a big boost unless they won by >15.
11 is fine.
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I am fine with that.
As an aside, ran across this explanation of NET
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium)
Same, but such an important win last night. Resume would have taken a big hit adding 2 in one night.
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I am fine with that.
As an aside, ran across this explanation of NET
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium)
I think this might be the original NET. It was revised a couple of years ago and eliminated some of these factors.
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I think this might be the original NET. It was revised a couple of years ago and eliminated some of these factors.
You are correct. Found this:
The 2021-22 men's basketball season marks the fourth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. In May 2020, the NCAA announced there will be changes made to the NCAA Evaluation Tool to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two.
The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home.
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Villanova moved up a spot by losing to MU. MI was never going to get a big boost unless they won by >15.
11 is fine.
This game was all about not dropping. And as we see, we avoided doing that.
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Yup.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 2,2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
12 11 Marquette
17 17 Creighton
26 26 Xavier
35 36 Providence
51 53 Seton Hall
91 89 Villanova
94 96 St. John's
112 110 Butler
164 165 DePaul
242 243 Georgetown
February 3 Team Sheets . MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Saint Mary's beat San Francisco last night but it wasn't pretty. The close win at home dropped them significantly in KenPom score (not rank). We're now closer to 7th than we are to 9th and there's a pretty clear break between the top 6 and the rest of the field.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 3, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
12 12 Marquette
17 17 Creighton
26 26 Xavier
35 35 Providence
52 51 Seton Hall
89 91 Villanova
94 94 St. John's
111 112 Butler
164 164 DePaul
242 242 Georgetown
February 4 Team Sheets . MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Marquette’s NET is 14 Sunday
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 4, 2023
New Old
7 8 UConn
14 12 Marquette
16 17 Creighton
24 26 Xavier
37 35 Providence
51 52 Seton Hall
91 89 Villanova
98 94 St. John's
112 111 Butler
163 164 DePaul
238 242 Georgetown
February 5 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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The net rankings never cease to amaze me. Marquette drops 3 spots from 11 to 14 in the course of 2 days because they beat a bad butler team by 8 instead of 15 but Uconn hasn't played a good game since the end of December, losing 6 games since January but has only dropped 6 spots.
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The net rankings never cease to amaze me. Marquette drops 3 spots from 11 to 14 in the course of 2 days because they beat a bad butler team by 8 instead of 15 but Uconn hasn't played a good game since the end of December, losing 6 games since January but has only dropped 6 spots.
They really need to adjust the weight given to margin of victory. I’m pretty sure we lost points earlier in the year when Shaka was emptying the bench at the 4 minute mark.
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With games at UConn and at Creighton sandwiching a home game vs. X, Marquette will have plenty of chances to move up nicely in the NET ratings over the next couple of weeks.
All 3 are winnable.
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They really need to adjust the weight given to margin of victory. I’m pretty sure we lost points earlier in the year when Shaka was emptying the bench at the 4 minute mark.
They took out the margin of victory component a couple years ago. Efficiency margins matter, which somewhat mirrors victory margin, but the up to 10 boost was effectively a double advantage for teams that won by 10.
And there's nothing wrong with the NET. Beat the teams you're supposed to beat in the fashion you're supposed to beat them and you will be fine. Do better and you move up. Do less and you move down. It's also really important, really really important, to understand the difference between rating and ranking.
As far as UConn, the NET seems to have similarities to kenpom, where UConn has fallen from 1st to 6th. But the reason for that is because they were so far ahead of the bulk of the field when they were ranked first. On December 18, UConn was ranked #1 at kenpom with an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +31.22. They are now ranked 6th with an AdjEM of +24.42. Had they dropped that overnight on December 18, they would've fallen from #1 to #7, so a similar drop. But while that 6.80 decline is the difference between then-first and now-sixth, it's also the difference between now-sixth and now-twenty-eighth. It's also the difference between now-twenty-eighth and now-seventy-first.
UConn has dropped a ton in terms of rating, but because of the equity they built up early and the wider margins at the top they haven't fallen as perceptibly far in terms of ranking.
NET is better than the terrible RPI system. Here are a few standout RPI numbers if that were still in effect:
8) Nevada (34)
11) Florida Atlantic (18)
12) San Diego State (23)
19) Utah State (32)
25) Marquette (14)
26) North Texas (58)
40) Creighton (16)
44) TCU (17)
47) Hofstra (92)
No system will be perfect, but the NET is a good sorting tool that better reflects team quality than the old system did.
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Marquette’s NET is 14 Monday
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 5, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
14 14 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
24 24 Xavier
36 37 Providence
53 51 Seton Hall
90 91 Villanova
99 98 St. John's
112 112 Butler
159 163 DePaul
236 238 Georgetown
February 6 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings as February 6, 2023
AP
10.MU
13. X
20. Cooley& Company
21. UConn
23. Creighton
Coaches
10. MU
15. X
17.Cooley&Company
21. UConn
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 6, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
14 14 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
24 24 Xavier
38 36 Providence
53 53 Seton Hall
91 90 Villanova
99 99 St. John's
112 112 Butler
159 159 DePaul
233 236 Georgetown
February 7 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 7, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
15 14 Marquette
17 16 Creighton
25 24 Xavier
36 38 Providence
54 53 Seton Hall
91 91 Villanova
100 99 St. John's
111 112 Butler
159 159 DePaul
233 233 Georgetown
February 8 Team Sheets. MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 7, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
15 14 Marquette
17 16 Creighton
25 24 Xavier
36 38 Providence
54 53 Seton Hall
91 91 Villanova
100 99 St. John's
111 112 Butler
159 159 DePaul
233 233 Georgetown
February 8 Team Sheets. MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Devastating loss last night
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Devastating loss last night
Yep, our NET fell the same number of spots as Creighton's and Xavier's did. Doomed!
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Devastating loss last night
Team is going to be too distraught to focus on Georgetown Saturday after this precipitous slide.
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Team is going to be too distraught to focus on Georgetown Saturday after this precipitous slide.
I hope that we do not forfeit the game, as the tickets my wife and I have for the game will be worthless, just like a lot of the criticism of our team.
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I hope that we do not forfeit the game, as the tickets my wife and I have for the game will be worthless, just like a lot of the criticism of our team.
Wait, you paid for tickets for a game at Georgetown?
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Wait, you paid for tickets for a game at Georgetown?
Right? At this point I assume they hand out free tickets and Georgetown gear to get people in the stadium.
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Wait, you paid for tickets for a game at Georgetown?
My wife and I had a "senior moment". Cut us some slack, will ya?
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Right? At this point I assume they hand out free tickets and the opposing team’s gear to get people in the stadium.
FIFY
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My wife and I had a "senior moment". Cut us some slack, will ya?
;D
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 7, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
15 14 Marquette
17 16 Creighton
25 24 Xavier
36 38 Providence
54 53 Seton Hall
91 91 Villanova
100 99 St. John's
111 112 Butler
159 159 DePaul
233 233 Georgetown
February 8 Team Sheets. MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
The same number of point we lost by, go figure.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 8, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
15 17 Creighton
16 15 Marquette
25 25 Xavier
39 36 Providence
58 54 Seton Hall
88 91 Villanova
101 100 St. John's
113 111 Butler
162 159 DePaul
230 233 Georgetown
February 9 Team Sheets. MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 23, 2023
New Old
6 7 UConn
15 15 Creighton
16 16 Marquette
25 25 Xavier
39 39 Providence
59 58 Seton Hall
85 88 Villanova
101 101 St. John's
112 113 Butler
167 162 DePaul
231 230 Georgetown
February 10 Team Sheets . MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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St Mary’s at 7 with 2 quad 3 losses? 🧐
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St Mary’s at 7 with 2 quad 3 losses? 🧐
They are up there because they blowout good mid/low majors:
42 point win over #158 Portland
30 point win over #56 North Texas
29 point win @#195 Pepperdine
28 point win over #92 Hofstra
27 point win over #223 San Diego
26 point win over #131 Vermont
20 point win over #141 Missouri State
19 point win over #90 Santa Calra
18 point win over #236 Southern
17 point win @#118 San Francisco
14 point win over #93 LMU
13 point win over #188 New Mexico State
12 point win vs. #199 Wyoming
The also have yet to lose a game by more than 5 points (and that was to #1 Houston on a neutral court).
That's why their NET says their a 2 seed but bracketmatrix says they are a 5 seed (and that will go down as more brackets factor in their latest loss).
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They are up there because they blowout good mid/low majors:
42 point win over #158 Portland
30 point win over #56 North Texas
29 point win @#195 Pepperdine
28 point win over #92 Hofstra
27 point win over #223 San Diego
26 point win over #131 Vermont
20 point win over #141 Missouri State
19 point win over #90 Santa Calra
18 point win over #236 Southern
17 point win @#118 San Francisco
14 point win over #93 LMU
13 point win over #188 New Mexico State
12 point win vs. #199 Wyoming
The also have yet to lose a game by more than 5 points (and that was to #1 Houston on a neutral court).
That's why their NET says their a 2 seed but bracketmatrix says they are a 5 seed (and that will go down as more brackets factor in their latest loss).
Couple things come to mind right away.
1. Randy Bennett can’t win close games
2. They’re bad test takers
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They are up there because they blowout good mid/low majors:
42 point win over #158 Portland
30 point win over #56 North Texas
29 point win @#195 Pepperdine
28 point win over #92 Hofstra
27 point win over #223 San Diego
26 point win over #131 Vermont
20 point win over #141 Missouri State
19 point win over #90 Santa Calra
18 point win over #236 Southern
17 point win @#118 San Francisco
14 point win over #93 LMU
13 point win over #188 New Mexico State
12 point win vs. #199 Wyoming
The also have yet to lose a game by more than 5 points (and that was to #1 Houston on a neutral court).
That's why their NET says their a 2 seed but bracketmatrix says they are a 5 seed (and that will go down as more brackets factor in their latest loss).
This is why I think the net needs to have a diminishing returns factor on margin of victory. The curve should start to flatten out around 20. Not a hard cap, just a much slower rise.
The difference between a 1 point win and a 20 point win is huge, but the difference between a 20 point win and a 40 point win is really immaterial.
That would lessen the impact of these outlier blowouts and improve the NET''s functionality.
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This is why I think the net needs to have a diminishing returns factor on margin of victory. The curve should start to flatten out around 20. Not a hard cap, just a much slower rise.
The difference between a 1 point win and a 20 point win is huge, but the difference between a 20 point win and a 40 point win is really immaterial.
That would lessen the impact of these outlier blowouts and improve the NET''s functionality.
I seem to recall them putting a cap on scoring margin differential at 10 points. However, it's the efficiency numbers that continue to get aided by larger blowouts.
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I seem to recall them putting a cap on scoring margin differential at 10 points. However, it's the efficiency numbers that continue to get aided by larger blowouts.
The goal would be to have a weighted efficiency. With only ~35 games in a college season, each game is about 3% of the season. A handful of outliers can make a huge impact on efficiency numbers.
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This is why I think the net needs to have a diminishing returns factor on margin of victory. The curve should start to flatten out around 20. Not a hard cap, just a much slower rise.
The difference between a 1 point win and a 20 point win is huge, but the difference between a 20 point win and a 40 point win is really immaterial.
That would lessen the impact of these outlier blowouts and improve the NET''s functionality.
I could be a fan of that. The downside to that is that it would lead to a slight advantage for slower paced teams and disadvantage for fast paced teams.
We use margin of victory because it is easy to understand and quantify but margin of victory does not equal efficiency. A 10 point win in a 55 possession game is more efficient than a 15 point win in an 85 possession game. The differences in a single game can be negligible but added up over 30 game season and the results could be more significant.
So if we base the start of the diminishing returns on margin of victory (say 20), it is more likely that a fast paced team would hit that point sooner than a slow paced team, even if the slow-paced team is being more efficient than the fast-paced team.
Again, that's not a reason to not do it, but I think the reason they have it the way it is now is because it theoretically evaluates all teams equally, regardless of pace.
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I could be a fan of that. The downside to that is that it would lead to a slight advantage for slower paced teams and disadvantage for fast paced teams.
We use margin of victory because it is easy to understand and quantify but margin of victory does not equal efficiency. A 10 point win in a 55 possession game is more efficient than a 15 point win in an 85 possession game. The differences in a single game can be negligible but added up over 30 game season and the results could be more significant.
So if we base the start of the diminishing returns on margin of victory (say 20), it is more likely that a fast paced team would hit that point sooner than a slow paced team, even if the slow-paced team is being more efficient than the fast-paced team.
Again, that's not a reason to not do it, but I think the reason they have it the way it is now is because it theoretically evaluates all teams equally, regardless of pace.
Good points. So, instead of margin of victory, we have to use a more complicated input. Margin of victory divided by possessions (efficiency) and then figure out what values are in the outlier range.
Then, the outliers can be weighted less.
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It's difficult for me to get behind any system that rewards a coach for keeping his starters in with a 30-point lead and 3 minutes to go.
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It's difficult for me to get behind any system that rewards a coach for keeping his starters in with a 30-point lead and 3 minutes to go.
Not me. Humiliating your opponent rules
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It's difficult for me to get behind any system that rewards a coach for keeping his starters in with a 30-point lead and 3 minutes to go.
The walk ons who practice hard get penalized with current system. That is one big drawback. They don’t make it in games much at all
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It's difficult for me to get behind any system that rewards a coach for keeping his starters in with a 30-point lead and 3 minutes to go.
I'll be honest, at the college level, I don't give two craps about running up the score. I know I'm in the minority but I find it more insulting for an opponent to pull their punches. Don't elongate the game, but I'd rather see my opponent run through the finish line instead of goofing around during the home stretch.
What I don't like is that the walk-ons really do get screwed on playing time. They put in so much work to the team and even before the NET, they got rewarded with precious few on the court minutes. Would love if in a true blowout the coach's could come to some sort of gentleman's agreement for both them to empty their bench for the last few minutes.
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I'll be honest, at the college level, I don't give two craps about running up the score. I know I'm in the minority but I find it more insulting for an opponent to pull their punches. Don't elongate the game, but I'd rather see my opponent run through the finish line instead of goofing around during the home stretch.
What I don't like is that the walk-ons really do get screwed on playing time. They put in so much work to the team and even before the NET, they got rewarded with precious few on the court minutes. Would love if in a true blowout the coach's could come to some sort of gentleman's agreement for both them to empty their bench for the last few minutes.
Imagine how the walkons would feel if they cost the team a seed line or two. Playing a 4 v 13, versus of 5/12 or 6/11.
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I'll be honest, at the college level, I don't give two craps about running up the score. I know I'm in the minority but I find it more insulting for an opponent to pull their punches. Don't elongate the game, but I'd rather see my opponent run through the finish line instead of goofing around during the home stretch.
What I don't like is that the walk-ons really do get screwed on playing time. They put in so much work to the team and even before the NET, they got rewarded with precious few on the court minutes. Would love if in a true blowout the coach's could come to some sort of gentleman's agreement for both them to empty their bench for the last few minutes.
I don't care about running up the score, either. If you want to keep a team from running up the score, stop them.
What I care about is that we talk about guys playing a lot of minutes ... but then we keep playing them in a blowout just to chase some metric. Wouldn't it be horrible if one of our starters got hurt because he was playing while a little tired and our team is up 30, or if an opposing player is ticked off that he's losing by 35 and commits a hard foul that concusses one of our guys?
Plus yeah, it's a shame the walk-ons don't get to play.
It's just stoopid to have a 40-point win "count" for more than a 26-point win IMHO.
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I seem to recall them putting a cap on scoring margin differential at 10 points. However, it's the efficiency numbers that continue to get aided by larger blowouts.
The margin cap was removed because it effectively gave double credit for the winning team up to 10, since they already get the benefit of the efficiency margin.
I'd like to see the efficiency model be regressive, but also think it would be beneficial to have a game control measure built in. Haslam's model uses that and it would give more credit to a team that won by 10 but led by double digits the whole game than a team who trailed most of the game, made a late run, then bolstered their lead with free throws in the final minute.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 19, 2023
New Old
6 6 UConn
15 15 Creighton
16 16 Marquette
27 25 Xavier
38 39 Providence
59 59 Seton Hall
85 85 Villanova
100 101 St. John's
106 112 Butler
168 167 DePaul
231 231 Georgetown
February 11 Team Sheets . MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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The margin cap was removed because it effectively gave double credit for the winning team up to 10, since they already get the benefit of the efficiency margin.
I'd like to see the efficiency model be regressive, but also think it would be beneficial to have a game control measure built in. Haslam's model uses that and it would give more credit to a team that won by 10 but led by double digits the whole game than a team who trailed most of the game, made a late run, then bolstered their lead with free throws in the final minute.
Let’s make games in February count more than games in November while we’re at it.
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Let’s make games in February count more than games in November while we’re at it.
Definitely not. It would create far too much bias in the system, so I imagine you'd be strongly against that.
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Definitely not. It would create far too much bias in the system, so I imagine you'd be strongly against that.
So why are certain minutes of a game more important than others, but certain games in a season are not more important than others?
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Let’s make games in February count more than games in November while we’re at it.
That would just kill Marquette. They might even call it the Marquette February Fade Rule.
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So why are certain minutes of a game more important than others, but certain games in a season are not more important than others?
Two big reasons for me. The first is that the goal of the NET and the goal of the selection committee are different. The NET's is try to objectively rank who the best teams actually are. The selection committee's goal is to rank teams by what they actually earned on the court.
The second one is that I can see an argument for why playing in blowout could impact a team's (or their opponent's) efficiency. I don't think the same applies for the time of year. Teams let up the intensity in a blowout. They don't let up intensity because it's November.
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So why are certain minutes of a game more important than others, but certain games in a season are not more important than others?
Game control doesn't make certain minutes more important, it does the opposite. Under the current system, the only minute that effectively matters is the final one, because it only looks at the final score.
For instance, Team A beats Team C 77-70 in 65 possessions. However, Team A opened the game with a 20-3 run and never led by fewer than 15 until the final minute, when Team C hit a trio of threes against just one made FT for Team A. Team B also beat Team C 77-70 in 65 possessions. However, they trailed most of the game, fought back to take their first lead with 2 minutes to play, and bolstered their final margin with made FTs when Team C fouled in the final minute. Whose performance against Team C was more impressive? The NET would recognize both as the same exact result, but Team A dominated until the very end while Team B struggled until the very end.
Game control would adjust for that. The current system does not. As a result, it would make all of the minutes matter, not just the score at the end of the last one.
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Game control doesn't make certain minutes more important, it does the opposite. Under the current system, the only minute that effectively matters is the final one, because it only looks at the final score.
For instance, Team A beats Team C 77-70 in 65 possessions. However, Team A opened the game with a 20-3 run and never led by fewer than 15 until the final minute, when Team C hit a trio of threes against just one made FT for Team A. Team B also beat Team C 77-70 in 65 possessions. However, they trailed most of the game, fought back to take their first lead with 2 minutes to play, and bolstered their final margin with made FTs when Team C fouled in the final minute. Whose performance against Team C was more impressive? The NET would recognize both as the same exact result, but Team A dominated until the very end while Team B struggled until the very end.
Game control would adjust for that. The current system does not. As a result, it would make all of the minutes matter, not just the score at the end of the last one.
I guess it depends on where the games are played. But I’d agree with the net. Both teams won by 7. Both teams end up with 1 win and 0 losses for that day, and for their records.
I’d rather be a team that wins 6 straight 1 point games coming from behind in the NCAA Tournament than a team that wins 5 games by 15+ and then loses by 1 at the buzzer in the national title. One had a more dominant NCAA Tournament run. The other won a national championship.
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I guess it depends on where the games are played. But I’d agree with the net. Both teams won by 7. Both teams end up with 1 win and 0 losses for that day, and for their records.
I’d rather be a team that wins 6 straight 1 point games coming from behind in the NCAA Tournament than a team that wins 5 games by 15+ and then loses by 1 at the buzzer in the national title. One had a more dominant NCAA Tournament run. The other won a national championship.
The NCAA Tournament isn't a valid comparison. The NCAA metric is designed to determine the best teams for inclusion to the tournament. Once the tournament starts, the NET has no bearing nor influence. It only matters until Selection Sunday.
The NET exists for at-large selection. Which means the results of a league regular season title (since plenty of league champs are left out every year) or a conference tournament title (their selection is determined regardless of NET) have absolutely zero bearing on what the NET should be evaluating. The best team is the one that controls their opponent the best, and that will be a better predictor than simply end of game margin. If the NCAA can do better (and they certainly can) then they should.
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Wisconsin lost! It may hurt MU's NET! Who cares?
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Wisconsin lost! It may hurt MU's NET! Who cares?
The badgers are only on the bubble because they beat a very highly ranked and currently first place big east team.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 11, 2023
New Old
9 6 UConn
13 15 Creighton
15 16 Marquette
26 27 Xavier
43 38 Providence
60 59 Seton Hall
85 85 Villanova
99 100 St. John's
108 106 Butler
170 168 DePaul
232 231 Georgetown
February 12 Team Sheets. MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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I just looked at the NET and did not see Wisconsin in the top 75. Is there an NET cut-off line NCAA/NIT tournament?
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I just looked at the NET and did not see Wisconsin in the top 75. Is there an NET cut-off line NCAA/NIT tournament?
Rutgers made the First Four last year with a NET of 75. They also had 7 Q1 wins. That's the best resumé comparison for the Badgers.
Wisconsin has a NET of 80 and 5 Q1 wins. (USC is no longer Q1 after 2 straight losses dropped their NET to 62.) Badgers need to go 4-2, likely needing one win over Rutgers or Purdue, to have a shot.
It might come down to how much the committee values Q1 wins vs computer metrics like NET and Kenpom. And if the eye test is a factor, that definitely hurts the Badgers. ;D
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I just looked at the NET and did not see Wisconsin in the top 75. Is there an NET cut-off line NCAA/NIT tournament?
I break down Wisconsin's resume on Cracked Sidewalks today. Their NET hurts, but they have more Q1 wins & fewer bad losses than anyone on the bubble. I was talking to a number of bracketologists last night and this morning, and it seems the consensus is they are still in, but I lean just out at the moment. Not beating their cupcakes by 40 is taking a toll.
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I break down Wisconsin's resume on Cracked Sidewalks today. Their NET hurts, but they have more Q1 wins & fewer bad losses than anyone on the bubble. I was talking to a number of bracketologists last night and this morning, and it seems the consensus is they are still in, but I lean just out at the moment. Not beating their cupcakes by 40 is taking a toll.
Any chance the committee looks at certain teams like Ohio State for instance and totally disregards them as a Q1 win because they are terrible?
I say that only half jokingly. Them sitting at 11-13 counting as a Q1 win is the real joke.
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Any chance the committee looks at certain teams like Ohio State for instance and totally disregards them as a Q1 win because they are terrible?
I say that only half jokingly. Them sitting at 11-13 counting as a Q1 win is the real joke.
Yes, they take that into consideration
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I break down Wisconsin's resume on Cracked Sidewalks today. Their NET hurts, but they have more Q1 wins & fewer bad losses than anyone on the bubble. I was talking to a number of bracketologists last night and this morning, and it seems the consensus is they are still in, but I lean just out at the moment. Not beating their cupcakes by 40 is taking a toll.
Alright, ty Brew. I assume people will be glued to their tv's when they play Minny.
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Alright, ty Brew. I assume people will be glued to their tv's when they play Minny.
Sure, and those people are called Wisconsin fans.
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What are the chances Villanova can Crack the to 75? Conversely X drops out of the top 30?
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 12, 2023
New Old
9 9 UConn
13 13 Creighton
15 15 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
43 43 Providence
61 60 Seton Hall
85 85 Villanova
99 99 St. John's
107 108 Butler
170 170 DePaul
232 232 Georgetown
February 13 Team Sheets . MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Sure, and those people are called Wisconsin fans.
Masochists as well.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of February 13, 2023
AP
11. MU
16. X
18. Creighton
20. U Conn
24. Cooley & Company
Coaches
10. MU
16. X
19. Creighton
21. Cooley & Company
23. U Conn
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Marquette’s NET is 15 Today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 13,2023
New Old
8 9 UConn
14 13 Creighton
15 15 Marquette
27 26 Xavier
42 43 Providence
62 61 Seton Hall
85 85 Villanova
99 99 St. John's
107 107 Butler
172 170 DePaul
231 232 Georgetown
February 14 Team Sheets. MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 14, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
14 14 Creighton
15 15 Marquette
25 27 Xavier
41 42 Providence
66 62 Seton Hall
84 85 Villanova
98 99 St. John's
111 107 Butler
173 172 DePaul
228 231 Georgetown
February 15 Team Sheets . MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Marquette is back up to 11 in kenpom, leapfrogging Creighton, which is now 12. Also, MU's offense ticks up a spot to #3, behind only Baylor and Gonzaga.
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Looking at who is in front of us - winning out w a run to the BET Final should give us a realistic shot at a 2 seed.
63% of 2 seeds make S16 vs 52% of 3s.
Let's get it done.
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Looking at who is in front of us - winning out w a run to the BET Final should give us a realistic shot at a 2 seed.
63% of 2 seeds make S16 vs 52% of 3s.
Let's get it done.
I’m excited about the team grinding out a win last night! But, we HAVE to find our offensive rhythm, or we won’t be making any type of a run. Last night’s shooting numbers are dreadful and again I thought there was too much 1-on-1, especially at the end of the game.
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I’m excited about the team grinding out a win last night! But, we HAVE to find our offensive rhythm, or we won’t be making any type of a run. Last night’s shooting numbers are dreadful and again I thought there was too much 1-on-1, especially at the end of the game.
Probably wrong thread, but I agree, too much standing around and watching one on one, particularly in the first half.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 15, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 14 Creighton
14 15 Marquette
25 25 Xavier
41 41 Providence
65 66 Seton Hall
83 84 Villanova
99 98 St. John's
110 111 Butler
174 173 DePaul
229 228 Georgetown
February 16 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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I’m excited about the team grinding out a win last night! But, we HAVE to find our offensive rhythm, or we won’t be making any type of a run. Last night’s shooting numbers are dreadful and again I thought there was too much 1-on-1, especially at the end of the game.
There's no doubt it's a bit of a concern. We could have easily been blown out of the gym in the first half after the first 13 mins. We were fortunate the lead never swelled. Mitchell really kept us afloat. I saw a combination of things when it comes to rhythm and offensive flow:
It was a pretty physical game. Early on we were very hesitant and passive and did not play with the necessary force. Kam and Jop were thinking too much out there on their wide open triples. Rise, fire, knock 'em down.
I thought out footwork was all over the place yesterday off the dribble and we didn't adjust to their deep sagging. Oso essentially isn't being guarded from the 20-10 foot area. He has to play with much more force and decisiveness, use his ability to handle and pass, shot fake at the rim, and be stronger with the basketball in general. He can either take his time backing in and surveying the floor or attack by changing direction. He was essentially dribble hand-offing in lieu of being aggressive.
OMAX was completely out of sorts with his footwork as well. And often playing too fast and out of control. He must have fallen down 10 times, didn't plant and take the simple 7 footer and didn't move the basketball when help came. We are a much better team when we move the ball.
Kam had probably his worst game of his career and hesitation and simple overthinking were the main culprits. I think he'll be fine but he and Shaka need to discuss where he's most effective attacking the paint. He had a nice dime to Oso but generally took tough shots because he was tight and over penatrated. Stop, plant, rise, mince the mesh, make everybody happy. If help comes moves the rock.
Hesitation is death in the NCAA tournament. When MU plays their game, shares the basketball, and plays with supreme confidence they are an excellent basketball team. I expect Shaka to have a counter for sagging squads and for us to get our offense back in gear.
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Agreed Muggsy.
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There's no doubt it's a bit of a concern. We could have easily been blown out of the gym in the first half after the first 13 mins. We were fortunate the lead never swelled. Mitchell really kept us afloat. I saw a combination of things when it comes to rhythm and offensive flow:
It was a pretty physical game. Early on we were very hesitant and passive and did not play with the necessary force. Kam and Jop were thinking too much out there on their wide open triples. Rise, fire, knock 'em down.
I thought out footwork was all over the place yesterday off the dribble and we didn't adjust to their deep sagging. Oso essentially isn't being guarded from the 20-10 foot area. He has to play with much more force and decisiveness, use his ability to handle and pass, shot fake at the rim, and be stronger with the basketball in general. He can either take his time backing in and surveying the floor or attack by changing direction. He was essentially dribble hand-offing in lieu of being aggressive.
OMAX was completely out of sorts with his footwork as well. And often playing too fast and out of control. He must have fallen down 10 times, didn't plant and take the simple 7 footer and didn't move the basketball when help came. We are a much better team when we move the ball.
Kam had probably his worst game of his career and hesitation and simple overthinking were the main culprits. I think he'll be fine but he and Shaka need to discuss where he's most effective attacking the paint. He had a nice dime to Oso but generally took tough shots because he was tight and over penatrated. Stop, plant, rise, mince the mesh, make everybody happy. If help comes moves the rock.
Hesitation is death in the NCAA tournament. When MU plays their game, shares the basketball, and plays with supreme confidence they are an excellent basketball team. I expect Shaka to have a counter for sagging squads and for us to get our offense back in gear.
Well said. The sagging D off Oso is preventing the slashing and back cuts that we were getting earlier in the year. Oso developing a 15 footer would make a big difference, even though MU avoids the mid-range. It would create space for the cutting to happen. Curious as to why Oso pushes his shots, even from 10 feet, rather than flicking his wrist like a normal shot. Has to be perfect with a pushed knuckleball shot. I have no doubt he will come back a different player in that regard next year.
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There was a lot of "oso with his back to a defender who has sagged 5 feet" last night. There's something to exploit there for sure and I have faith the coaches are going to talk about what that looks like over the week in preparation for Creighton.
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Post defenders are taking away Oso's turn to his left shoulder. So sagging to take away passing lanes and then taking away his left shoulder. He needs a counter back to his right shoulder.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 16, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
26 25 Xavier
40 41 Providence
67 65 Seton Hall
83 83 Villanova
98 99 St. John's
111 110 Butler
175 174 DePaul
230 229 Georgetown
February 17 Team Sheets. MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 17, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Creighton
15 14 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
40 40 Providence
68 67 Seton Hall
83 83 Villanova
98 98 St. John's
111 111 Butler
175 175 DePaul
229 230 Georgetown
February 18 Team Sheets . MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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I don't expect today's NET changes to impact the Top-16 at all, but MU fell to 15 & saw the Wisconsin loss yoyo from Q2 to Q3.
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NCAA tournament's early top 16
South Region
1.Alabama
2.Baylor
3.Virginia
4.Indiana
West Region
1.Kansas
2.Arizona
3.Kansas State
4.Gonzaga
Midwest Region
1.Houston
2.Texas
3.Tennessee
4.Xavier
East Region
1.Purdue
2.UCLA
3.Iowa State
4. Marquette
Ranking of Seeds
1 Alabama
2 Houston
3 Purdue
4 Kansas
5 Texas
6 Arizona
7 Baylor
8 UCLA
9 Tennessee
10 Virginia
11 Iowa State
12 Kansas State
13 Indiana
14 Marquette
15 Gonzaga
16 Xavier
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NCAA tournament's early top 16
South Region
1.Alabama
2.Baylor
3.Virginia
4.Indiana
West Region
1.Kansas
2.Arizona
3.Kansas State
4.Gonzaga
Midwest Region
1.Houston
2.Texas
3.Tennessee
4.Xavier
East Region
1.Purdue
2.UCLA
3.Iowa State
4. Marquette
Ranking of Seeds
1 Alabama
2 Houston
3 Purdue
4 Kansas
5 Texas
6 Arizona
7 Baylor
8 UCLA
9 Tennessee
10 Virginia
11 Iowa State
12 Kansas State
13 Indiana
14 Marquette
15 Gonzaga
16 Xavier
When did they announce it?
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When did they announce it?
espn had it at HT of Indiana/Illinois game.
( I thought we’d be a 3.)
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espn had it at HT of Indiana/Illinois game.
( I thought we’d be a 3.)
Live was CBS 11:30 CT
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 18, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Creighton
14 15 Marquette
26 26 Xavier
38 40 Providence
69 68 Seton Hall
84 83 Villanova
97 98 St. John's
112 111 Butler
170 175 DePaul
231 229 Georgetown
February 19 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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At what point do we start blaming Notre Dame if we get a 4 or 5 seed. NET of 194...wtf...try to schedule a difficult True road win and much closer to being a quad 4 game than a 2 or one that would have been historically projected.
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Can't be controlled how bad ND, GTech, or Wisconsin turned out to be. 21-6 is pretty good.
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Can't be controlled how bad ND, GTech, or Wisconsin turned out to be. 21-6 is pretty good.
A voice of reason. Go away!
We should be proud of where Shaka has taken the us. He has absolutely no control over what our former opponents do. And Hell yes, 21-6 is pretty good.
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A voice of reason. Go away!
We should be proud of where Shaka has taken the us. He has absolutely no control over what our former opponents do. And Hell yes, 21-6 is pretty good.
But is it good enough ?
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Good enough for what?
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But is it good enough ?
21-6 is damn good for a team that coaches of the conference picked to be on final step to cellar. Shaka has the team overachieving from expectations. If we can beat Creighton on their floor(a very tough task) then we should be regular season champs--a far cry of the Wojo years as regular season chumps.
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21-6 is damn good for a team that coaches of the conference picked to be on final step to cellar. Shaka has the team overachieving from expectations. If we can beat Creighton on their floor(a very tough task) then we should be regular season champs--a far cry of the Wojo years as regular season chumps.
Sadly, McDermott owns Shaka
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During the live reveal show on CBS, Jay Wright was quick to talk about the Big East, making a push for Creighton to be in the top 16 with the other Big East schools.
The committee chair, Chris Reynolds, AD at Bradley, who was on the show, made it clear that teams winning games on the road against good teams mattered.
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Well … MU was awful v Creighton last year, as I recall. This season may be different…
And, I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see MU winning at Creighton.
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Marquette is beyond due for a good shooting game might as well be against creighton
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During the live reveal show on CBS, Jay Wright was quick to talk about the Big East, making a push for Creighton to be in the top 16 with the other Big East schools.
The committee chair, Chris Reynolds, AD at Bradley, who was on the show, made it clear that teams winning games on the road against good teams mattered.
Definitely a valid criticism of MU’s resume. We don’t have any wins away from home that are of any significance. The teams ahead of us all have a few good road/neutral wins.
Tuesday is a great opportunity in that regard as is the BET. Though I’m 99.99% convinced we will be locked in with our seeding and matchup before BET play starts anyway. Way too many logistics go into the selection process to make many changes at that point imo.
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Well … MU was awful v Creighton last year, as I recall. This season may be different…
And, I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see MU winning at Creighton.
In my recollection all our games last year against Creighton were pretty close—and last year doesn’t matter anyway. This year we are 1-0. Let’s make it 2-0 and we are in great shape.
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During the live reveal show on CBS, Jay Wright was quick to talk about the Big East, making a push for Creighton to be in the top 16 with the other Big East schools.
The committee chair, Chris Reynolds, AD at Bradley, who was on the show, made it clear that teams winning games on the road against good teams mattered.
If Wardle can’t talk his AD into a better seed for MU, he doesn’t deserve to be our coach in the future.
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If Wardle can’t talk his AD into a better seed for MU, he doesn’t deserve to be our coach in the future.
Maybe Wardle's upset Marquette hired Shaka instead of him and he did the opposite.
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If Wardle can’t talk his AD into a better seed for MU, he doesn’t deserve to be our coach in the future.
Talk will simply not do it. Buzz's 9-page letter last year almost worked, right?
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Marquette’s NET is 14 Today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 19, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
25 26 Xavier
38 38 Providence
71 69 Seton Hall
84 84 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
122 112 Butler
167 170 DePaul
220 231 Georgetown
February 20, 2023 MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings February 20, 2023
AP
10. MU
16. X
18. U Conn
19. Creighton
20. Cooley & Company
Coaches
9. MU
15. X
18. Cooley & Company
19. Creighton
23. U Conn
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WOW
1) https://twitter.com/CBBAnalytics/status/1627768115600805907?t=h0R51VU_MV89N9NlLAnY7A&s=19
2) https://twitter.com/CBBAnalytics/status/1627768117651820553?t=qloodLJf4UilM-fm5O8yMA&s=19
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So, don't go beyond the 6th man.
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Kind of surprised to see Joplin up there. A shorter rotation in the tournament should help us, assuming they can keep up that level of production with more minutes.
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So, don't go beyond the 6th man.
Ross is a stud. He totally messes with the flow of the opposing team.
Keep the starting 5 with fresh legs with putting in Gold and Sean Jones for a couple of minutes. Will need everyone to put out 120% any time on the court in the tournament. Not to mention keeping everyone out of foul trouble.
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Kind of surprised to see Joplin up there. A shorter rotation in the tournament should help us, assuming they can keep up that level of production with more minutes.
Only 105 minutes and mostly due to the game @ DePaul.
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Only 105 minutes and mostly due to the game @ DePaul.
Can't imagine they change anything about their current rotations. Joplin first off the bench, Ross and Sean get early run to see if either are on their A game and work from there.
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Gold needs to play more
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Gold needs to play more
He could be huge tomorrow if he comes in and drains a few threes to mess with Kalkbrenner.
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He could be huge tomorrow if he comes in and drains a few threes to mess with Kalkbrenner.
Shaka talked about Gold being a matchup problem in the preseason and as I recall, alluded specifically to Kalkbrenner, or maybe it was how Creighton defended us. I definitely think they will try to use Gold's shooting and Oso's passing to pull Kalkbrenner away from the basket.
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Great. Key to the game is a frosh averaging less than 8 mins per game
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Ross is a stud. He totally messes with the flow of the opposing team.
Keep the starting 5 with fresh legs with putting in Gold and Sean Jones for a couple of minutes. Will need everyone to put out 120% any time on the court in the tournament. Not to mention keeping everyone out of foul trouble.
I should have used teal. I prefer it when the bench is being utilized and productive. I have said that ad nauseum. So, essentially, we agree and shame on me.
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Great. Key to the game is a frosh averaging less than 8 mins per game
You’re only allowed one key to the game? 👀
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You’re only allowed one key to the game? 👀
Only if it’s keys to the game
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 20, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
25 25 Xavier
38 38 Providence
71 71 Seton Hall
84 84 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
123 122 Butler
166 167 DePaul
220 220 Georgetown
February 20 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 20, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
25 25 Xavier
38 38 Providence
71 71 Seton Hall
84 84 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
123 122 Butler
166 167 DePaul
220 220 Georgetown
February 20 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Will Marquette finally pass Creighton with a win tonight?
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Will Marquette finally pass Creighton with a win tonight?
Who cares. Saturday made it obvious that NET plays no role in seeding. Just ask Mick Cronin or Saint Mary's or even #76 Wisconsin.
I honestly think NET is less relevant than the Coaches' poll and I could not care less. Just more click-bait for CBB junkies, nothing more, nothing less.
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Who cares. Saturday made it obvious that NET plays no role in seeding. Just ask Mick Cronin or Saint Mary's or even #76 Wisconsin.
I honestly think NET is less relevant than the Coaches' poll and I could not care less. Just more click-bait for CBB junkies, nothing more, nothing less.
You're confused
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Who cares. Saturday made it obvious that NET plays no role in seeding. Just ask Mick Cronin or Saint Mary's or even #76 Wisconsin.
I honestly think NET is less relevant than the Coaches' poll and I could not care less. Just more click-bait for CBB junkies, nothing more, nothing less.
Makes a difference in Big East standings, though. If Creighton wins tonight & neither Marquette nor Creighton lose any other games, the team that's higher in the NET will be the 1-seed at MSG. New tiebreaker rule they added.
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Makes a difference in Big East standings, though. If Creighton wins tonight & neither Marquette nor Creighton lose any other games, the team that's higher in the NET will be the 1-seed at MSG. New tiebreaker rule they added.
Hadn’t seen this confirmed. NET comes into play after the usual head-to-head and opponent record comparisons, right?
I think using NET for even a tertiary tiebreaker is silly, but I suppose so was a coin flip.
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Hadn’t seen this confirmed. NET comes into play after the usual head-to-head and opponent record comparisons, right?
I think using NET for even a tertiary tiebreaker is silly, but I suppose so was a coin flip.
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=64269.0
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https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=64269.0
Thanks!
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Makes a difference in Big East standings, though. If Creighton wins tonight & neither Marquette nor Creighton lose any other games, the team that's higher in the NET will be the 1-seed at MSG. New tiebreaker rule they added.
Well then I change my mind, I do care about NET now, but just for the BE tie-breaker.
For the record, I don't think NET is flawed. I choose to ignore it just like the NCAA does in choosing or seeding teams, which is their right. Might as well be the Sacramento Bee sports section's power rankings.
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Helped us get a BE win.
But that X L was not ideal for the resume.
They dropped 9 spots out of Q1(gonna be tough to get back in TBH).
While Nova only rose 1 spot with the W. So still only at 83, need to be 75 for our road win there to be Q1.
X plays SHU now, who is hanging on for dear life as a Q1 win for us
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Helped us get a BE win.
But that X L was not ideal for the resume.
They dropped 9 spots out of Q1(gonna be tough to get back in TBH).
While Nova only rose 1 spot with the W. So still only at 83, need to be 75 for our road win there to be Q1.
X plays SHU now, who is hanging on for dear life as a Q1 win for us
I think we're fine PG.. Isn't the NET just one component as far as seeding?
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I think we're fine PG.. Isn't the NET just one component as far as seeding?
Im talking Q1 wins which do matter some.
I am not worried about MU's net and where it ends up for seeding.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 21,2023
New Old
9 8 UConn
13 14 Marquette
14 13 Creighton
34 25 Xavier
38 38 Providence
70 71 Seton Hall
83 84 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
123 123 Butler
167 166 DePaul
220 220 Georgetown
February 22 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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I know I asked this before, but how is St Mary's NET so high?
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I know I asked this before, but how is St Mary's NET so high?
Other than beating Gonzaga, I think it’s from blowing out bad teams.
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Well it's only fitting that we passed Creighton.
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Big East NET ranking as as of games of February 22, 2023
New Old
7 9 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
35 34 Xavier
40 38 Providence
71 70 Seton Hall
82 83 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
120 123 Butler
171 167 DePaul
220 220 Georgetown
February 24 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET ranking as as of games of February 22, 2023
New Old
7 9 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
35 34 Xavier
40 38 Providence
71 70 Seton Hall
82 83 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
120 123 Butler
171 167 DePaul
220 220 Georgetown
February 24 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Wisconsin up 4 sports to 72. So now a Q2 loss.
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Wisconsin up 4 sports to 72. So now a Q2 loss.
Messes with our Q1+Q2 record!
Nice to not have a Q3 loss though, I suppose.
The big takeaway from the reveal was big road dubs.
It’s only one, but Marquette now has theirs.
Hopefully regular season conference success, although not an official metric, plays a role in the minds and feelings inside that room.
Win the next 3, win game 1 at the garden and play UConn close if they are the next opponent and I’ll be very hopeful for a 2 seed.
Beat UConn in that game and I’d be VERY surprised if Marquette stayed on the 3 line.
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Wisconsin up 4 sports to 72. So now a Q2 loss.
If I was on the committee and watched Wisky/Iowa last night I would be inclined NOT to put Wisconsin in the field and have serious reservations about Iowa as well.
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If I was on the committee and watched Wisky/Iowa last night I would be inclined NOT to put Wisconsin in the field and also have serious reservations about Iowa as well.
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If I was on the committee and watched Wisky/Iowa last night I would be inclined NOT to put Wisconsin in the field and have serious reservations about Iowa as well.
How a team looks in a single game is irrelevant. Tourney bids are about what teams earned them, not about which teams are the best. Iowa has all but earned their bid already. Wisconsin still has work to do to earn theirs.
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How a team looks in a single game is irrelevant. Tourney bids are about what teams earned them, not about which teams are the best. Iowa has all but earned their bid already. Wisconsin still has work to do to earn theirs.
This exactly. Honestly, eye test is your worst friend when it comes to evaluating teams for inclusion/exclusion/seeding. It's also why I don't put much stock in Marquette's H2H win over Baylor. Better to just say "win over #12 NET team at home" while Baylor's best home win is over #6. It's just a data point, nothing to make too sweeping of conclusions from.
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How a team looks in a single game is irrelevant. Tourney bids are about what teams earned them, not about which teams are the best. Iowa has all but earned their bid already. Wisconsin still has work to do to earn theirs.
Evan Flood starting the bus early on blaming NET.
https://twitter.com/evan_flood/status/1628790501141872640?s=46&t=tRLaBO22ebdPBXW4cxGEqw
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Evan Flood starting the bus early on blaming NET.
https://twitter.com/evan_flood/status/1628790501141872640?s=46&t=tRLaBO22ebdPBXW4cxGEqw
Tell me you don’t know how NET works without telling me you don’t know how NET works.
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Evan Flood starting the bus early on blaming NET.
https://twitter.com/evan_flood/status/1628790501141872640?s=46&t=tRLaBO22ebdPBXW4cxGEqw
kpom has Bucky at 64 and Buckeyes at 63. Those early NC wins for tOSU must count for a lot
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Tell me you don’t know how NET works without telling me you don’t know how NET works.
Eh…both teams suck.
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Eh…both teams suck.
Bucky media knows they need to start beating the drums now
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Bucky media knows they need to start beating the drums now
The only surprise is he beat Potrykus. I’m sure there’s a few teams behind the Badgers that could do a similar comparison.
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Evan Flood starting the bus early on blaming NET.
https://twitter.com/evan_flood/status/1628790501141872640?s=46&t=tRLaBO22ebdPBXW4cxGEqw
Dude doesn't understand how the NET is used, gets upset when people try to explain it saying he knows, but then continues to show he doesn't know. Isn't it his JOB to understand?!
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Dude doesn't understand how the NET is used, gets upset when people try to explain it saying he knows, but then continues to show he doesn't know. Isn't it his JOB to understand?!
He's a content farmer. He just shotguns out stuff to get badger fans to hate click or love click. He's not doing any critical thinking on his best day, and this one isn't his best day.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 23, 2022
New Old
8 7 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
33 35 Xavier
40 40 Providence
69 71 Seton Hall
82 83 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
120 120 Butler
172 171 DePaul
220 220 Georgetown
February 24 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 23, 2022
New Old
8 7 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
33 35 Xavier
40 40 Providence
69 71 Seton Hall
82 83 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
120 120 Butler
172 171 DePaul
220 220 Georgetown
February 24 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
ok, does uconn's win over alabama back on nov. 25 (82-67) when they were ranked #18 bring their net higher than ours by 5-6 spots? we split our season series although the margins of victory were significant
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ok, does uconn's win over alabama back on nov. 25 (82-67) when they were ranked #18 bring their net higher than ours by 5-6 spots? we split our season series although the margins of victory were significant
Thats not how net works
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Thats not how net works
The NET's "special sauce" is leaving a bad taste in the mouth for many fans.
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The NET's "special sauce" is leaving a bad taste in the mouth for many fans.
It's really not all that complicated. Beat quality teams, especially away from home. Try to outscore them as much as possible. Hope your out of conference opponents do the same. Don't have bad losses.
UConn's NET is a reflection of their OOC wins at the beginning of the year. Beating Oregon, Alabama and Iowa State on a neutral floor, plus a win in Florida and a home win v. Oklahoma State is really good work. They are ranked ahead of Marquette because our OCC included a home and neutral floor loss.
Yes they had some bad losses that Marquette has avoided in conference, but their positive upside way outshines that downside.
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It's really not all that complicated. Beat quality teams, especially away from home. Try to outscore them as much as possible. Hope your out of conference opponents do the same. Don't have bad losses.
UConn's NET is a reflection of their OOC wins at the beginning of the year. Beating Oregon, Alabama and Iowa State on a neutral floor, plus a win in Florida and a home win v. Oklahoma State is really good work. They are ranked ahead of Marquette because our OCC included a home and neutral floor loss.
Yes they had some bad losses that Marquette has avoided in conference, but their positive upside way outshines that downside.
They also did a whole lot of that outscoring as much as possible in the non con.
Uconns high NET is def not a mystery.
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Thats not how net works
Yep. Let's be Big Boys and accept the NET that we have. it's not like there is anything we can do about it except perhaps win the BET. Oh, and hope those above us on the reveal screw up.
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Yep. Let's be Big Boys and accept the NET that we have. it's not like there is anything we can do about it except perhaps win the BET. Oh, and hope those above us on the reveal screw up.
Amen. The die is cast. MU has had a phenomenal year.
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After the reveal was revealed…..isnt the NET irrelevant for the remainder of the year? What ever your NET is at this point got you the seed that you now have….if your a top four seed. What matters is IU, ISU, KSU, BAY etc. who are directly in front of and directly behind us to continue to lose. Which as of late, has happened.
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After the reveal was revealed…..isnt the NET irrelevant for the remainder of the year? What ever your NET is at this point got you the seed that you now have….if your a top four seed. What matters is IU, ISU, KSU, BAY etc. who are directly in front of and directly behind us to continue to lose. Which as of late, has happened.
It still matters. Take Virginia for example. They are 2-1 since the reveal but their NET has fallen by 5 spots (which is significant movement this late in the season). Most seem to a agree that they've fallen from 2nd 3 seed to the 4 seed line, maybe even the back half of it
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The other thing about the NET is a lot of people freak out about it.
But to this point its become pretty clear that its a tool of reference especially for determining quality of wins. But its far from a be all end all when seeding teams.
Hence why we are ahead of Uconn in all brackets.
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It's really not all that complicated. Beat quality teams, especially away from home. Try to outscore them as much as possible. Hope your out of conference opponents do the same. Don't have bad losses.
UConn's NET is a reflection of their OOC wins at the beginning of the year. Beating Oregon, Alabama and Iowa State on a neutral floor, plus a win in Florida and a home win v. Oklahoma State is really good work. They are ranked ahead of Marquette because our OCC included a home and neutral floor loss.
Yes they had some bad losses that Marquette has avoided in conference, but their positive upside way outshines that downside.
I was not complaining about MU's NET, but commenting on all the complaints in the article (Rico's link). It may not be complicated but no one knows how they come up with those numbers, thus the "whining" why my team is not higher/lower.
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I was not complaining about MU's NET, but commenting on all the complaints in the article (Rico's link). It may not be complicated but no one knows how they come up with those numbers, thus the "whining" why my team is not higher/lower.
Well the NCAA has chosen to not reveal the formula because they don't want schools playing to it.
But again, it's really not that hard to figure out what the NCAA is rewarding.
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It still matters. Take Virginia for example. They are 2-1 since the reveal but their NET has fallen by 5 spots (which is significant movement this late in the season). Most seem to a agree that they've fallen from 2nd 3 seed to the 4 seed line, maybe even the back half of it
I guess its the chicken or the egg question.
In those games you referenced:
Close win @ Louis
Close win vs ND
Loss @ BC.
If most believe that they have slipped in seeding is due to how they have played OR exclusively due to their net drop.
Has IU slipped in seeding (to most) because they've lost recently….or because the effect those losses have had on their net?
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I guess its the chicken or the egg question.
In those games you referenced:
Close win @ Louis
Close win vs ND
Loss @ BC.
If most believe that they have slipped in seeding is due to how they have played OR exclusively due to their net drop.
Has IU slipped in seeding (to most) because they've lost recently….or because the effect those losses have had on their net?
No one ever has made an argument that NET exclusively mattered. It's one factor among several that go into a team's resume. All of those factors still matter at this point in the season.
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No one ever has made an argument that NET exclusively mattered. It's one factor among several that go into a team's resume. All of those factors still matter at this point in the season.
Don’t waste your time
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I still for the life of me cannot figure out net rankings. Can someone with better understanding of how a team gets its net explain how Marquette and Creighton are 13 and 14.
1 spot separates the two teams despite the fact that Marquette has 4 more wins and with that obviously Creighton 4 more losses.
Marquette 22-6 Top 4 Wins ( @ Creighton, Uconn, Creighton, Xavier)
Creighton 18-10 Top 4 Wins ( Uconn, Providence, Xavier, Arkansas)
I know losses factor into the formula so Texas and Arizona being close losses help somewhat but they still lose the game.
I fail to see how these resumes are even remotely close yet they are 13 and 14 in net.
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I still for the life of me cannot figure out net rankings. Can someone with better understanding of how a team gets its net explain how Marquette and Creighton are 13 and 14.
1 spot separates the two teams despite the fact that Marquette has 4 more wins and with that obviously Creighton 4 more losses.
Marquette 22-6 Top 4 Wins ( @ Creighton, Uconn, Creighton, Xavier)
Creighton 18-10 Top 4 Wins ( Uconn, Providence, Xavier, Arkansas)
I know losses factor into the formula so Texas and Arizona being close losses help somewhat but they still lose the game.
I fail to see how these resumes are even remotely close yet they are 13 and 14 in net.
NET is not a ranking takes "all body" of work into account. My best guess is look a the difference of SOS specially noncon SOS, stop just looking at net win/loss, depends on how those you beat and lost to do.
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NET is not a ranking takes "all body" of work into account. My best guess is look a the difference of SOS specially noncon SOS, stop just looking at net win/loss, depends on how those you beat and lost to do.
A lot of it has to also do with the offensive and defensive efficiency algorithms. Hard to gauge how they affect things.
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I still for the life of me cannot figure out net rankings. Can someone with better understanding of how a team gets its net explain how Marquette and Creighton are 13 and 14.
1 spot separates the two teams despite the fact that Marquette has 4 more wins and with that obviously Creighton 4 more losses.
Marquette 22-6 Top 4 Wins ( @ Creighton, Uconn, Creighton, Xavier)
Creighton 18-10 Top 4 Wins ( Uconn, Providence, Xavier, Arkansas)
I know losses factor into the formula so Texas and Arizona being close losses help somewhat but they still lose the game.
I fail to see how these resumes are even remotely close yet they are 13 and 14 in net.
The following is a response often posted on Twitter, when this question arises:
“ the NET is most heavily reliant on efficiency metrics that measure how efficient a team is at scoring on their offensive of possessions and preventing scores on the defensive positions, adjusted for their strength of schedule. These efficiency measures are then used to predict How a team will perform in any given game, based on their season efficiency. In this example Tennessee is, according to KenPom, the most efficient team defensively by a considerable margin and the 72nd most efficient team offensively, (which is merely OK) which tallies up to be in the 6th most efficient team in division one.
With this focus on efficiency/predictive metrics in mind, the NET’s main purpose is not to rank teams based on how they’ve performed, but to rank teams based on how they’re expected to perform in order to build the quadrant system. In this regard it is a very good tool for building a base line on determining which teams you should beat which teams you shouldn’t.
The main misconception around the NET is that it is supposed to be this God-like ranking of all 363 Division I college basketball teams and that is just not true. This selection committee knows it because they have said this many times in the past when discussing tournament resumes, and the net is merely a starting point For seating discussions. “
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A lot of it has to also do with the offensive and defensive efficiency algorithms. Hard to gauge how they affect things.
Yes, correct. Just that he keeps looking at win/loss record.
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I still for the life of me cannot figure out net rankings. Can someone with better understanding of how a team gets its net explain how Marquette and Creighton are 13 and 14.
1 spot separates the two teams despite the fact that Marquette has 4 more wins and with that obviously Creighton 4 more losses.
Marquette 22-6 Top 4 Wins ( @ Creighton, Uconn, Creighton, Xavier)
Creighton 18-10 Top 4 Wins ( Uconn, Providence, Xavier, Arkansas)
I know losses factor into the formula so Texas and Arizona being close losses help somewhat but they still lose the game.
I fail to see how these resumes are even remotely close yet they are 13 and 14 in net.
The short answer is that because they are close to equally efficient as we are. The main "symptoms" you are looking for in cases like this are usually close losses to great teams and huge wins over bad teams.
In Creighton's case they get credit for:
Only losing by 5 @#9 Texas
Only losing by 2 against #11 Arizona on a neutral court
Only losing by 3 @#33 Xavier
Beating #48 Texas Tech by 11 on a neutral court
Beating #69 Seton Hall by 13 on the road
Beating #33 Xavier by 17
Beating #69 Seton Hall by 22
Beating #120 Butler by 21 on the road
Beating #97 St. John's by 28
Beating #120 Butler by 22
Beating #136 UC Riverside by 29
Beating #175 DePaul by 15
Beating #289 North Dakota by 35
Beating #335 Holy Cross by 29
Meanwhile we get dragged down by things like
Losing by 15 @#8 UConn
Losing by 3 to #42 Mississippi State on a neutral court
Losing by 3 to #70 Wisconsin at home
Only beating #120 Butler by 8 at home
Only beating #184 Radford by 10 at home
Only beating #277 Chicago State by 14 at home
Now obviously we have plenty of things that boost us up and they have things that drag them down otherwise we wouldn't be ranked ahead of them. Just illustrating the positives and negatives that go into NET. Overall W/L no matta to NET.
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Big East NET ranking as as of games of February 24, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
25 33 Xavier
40 40 Providence
78 69 Seton Hall
83 82 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
120 120 Butler
172 172 DePaul
220 220 Georgetown
February 25 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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thats a big jump for X for just 1 game
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And a big drop by SH.
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thats a big jump for X for just 1 game
Trashed a Q2 team away by 22 pts. They were like only 1.5-2 pt favorites I believe. Anyway they way over performed.
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As predicted. We swapped Q1 and Q2 wins last night.
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After the reveal was revealed…..isnt the NET irrelevant for the remainder of the year? What ever your NET is at this point got you the seed that you now have….if your a top four seed. What matters is IU, ISU, KSU, BAY etc. who are directly in front of and directly behind us to continue to lose. Which as of late, has happened.
A team's own NET ranking doesn't really matter. NET is just a sorting tool that determines which quadrant your opponent goes in. The NET pushback and pot stirring comes from people like Flood that think they understand it but don't and want to use it to generate controversy among their followers.
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thats a big jump for X for just 1 game
X had a big drop earlier in the week after losing to Villanova.
My takeaway from that is that the teams in that range are pretty tightly bunched.
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X had a big drop earlier in the week after losing to Villanova.
My takeaway from that is that the teams in that range are pretty tightly bunched.
Think the same... though blowing out a top 80 team on the road tends to move the needle
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The only slightly odd thing with it is
When X lost to Nova...X had a big drop but Nova only went up 1.
But now when X pummels SHU...Both teams have big drop/rise.
So guess there must be much more seperation in the 80s than arund the top 30 and top 70s
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 25, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
16 14 Creighton
24 25 Xavier
39 40 Providence
78 83 Villanova
79 78 Seton Hall
97 97 St. John's
122 120 Butler
166 172 DePaul
222 220 Georgetown
February 26 Team Sheets . MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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A team's own NET ranking doesn't really matter. NET is just a sorting tool that determines which quadrant your opponent goes in. The NET pushback and pot stirring comes from people like Flood that think they understand it but don't and want to use it to generate controversy among their followers.
A+ job on taking it to Flood in his Twitter rant. He has no clue.
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Looking at the team sheet today it seems to me that Marquette fans should become pretty big Villanova and Seton Hall fans over the next few weeks.
Sitting at 78 and 79 respectively, if either or both move up to 75 or better by selection/seeding time Marquettes Q2 road win turns into Q1 and their Q3 home win turns into a Q2.
Every little bit helps.
Problem is they play each other @SH on Tuesday, so best case scenario is that only one of the 2 gets into the top 75
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Looking at the team sheet today it seems to me that Marquette fans should become pretty big Villanova and Seton Hall fans over the next few weeks.
Sitting at 78 and 79 respectively, if either or both move up to 75 or better by selection/seeding time Marquettes Q2 road win turns into Q1 and their Q3 home win turns into a Q2.
Every little bit helps.
Problem is they play each other @SH on Tuesday, so best case scenario is that only one of the 2 gets into the top 75
Of the two, Villanova is the one trending in the right direction.
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Marquette’s NET is 13 Monday
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Looking at the team sheet today it seems to me that Marquette fans should become pretty big Villanova and Seton Hall fans over the next few weeks.
Sitting at 78 and 79 respectively, if either or both move up to 75 or better by selection/seeding time Marquettes Q2 road win turns into Q1 and their Q3 home win turns into a Q2.
Every little bit helps.
Problem is they play each other @SH on Tuesday, so best case scenario is that only one of the 2 gets into the top 75
Honestly, four teams not in the field could determine the 2-seed line. NET #73 Colorado, #75 Washington State, #78 Villanova, and #80 Seton Hall.
Currently, Arizona has a Q1 and Q2 win against the first two and a Q2 loss. UCLA has a 4-0 record in Q1+2. Marquette is also 4-0, but they are Q2+3 games. If the Pac-12 teams fell outside the top-75, it would drop those games a quadrant and if Villanova and Seton Hall climbed into the top-75 they would all move games up a quadrant. The biggest drawback is Villanova and Seton Hall play each other this week, so they are more relying on other teams to fall (Drake, UCF, and Virginia Tech bear watching) than being able to both climb up with a single result.
Here's the current and possible Q1+2 records:
Current UCLA: 7-4 Q1 / 14-4 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2
Current Arizona: 7-2 Q1 / 13-5 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2
Current Marquette: 5-5 Q1 / 9-6 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2
And if the P12/BE teams flipped...
Possible UCLA: 5-4 Q1 / 12-4 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2
Possible Arizona: 6-2 Q1 / 12-4 Q1+2 / 1 loss outside Q1+2
Possible Marquette: 7-5 Q1 / 11-6 Q1+2 / 0 losses outside Q1+2
It might not be enough to move Marquette ahead of them, but it certainly puts the resumes on more level footing,
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 26, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
25 24 Xavier
37 39 Providence
78 78 Villanova
80 79 Seton Hall
97 97 St. John's
124 122 Butler
166 166 DePaul
227 222 Georgetown
February 27 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 26, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
25 24 Xavier
37 39 Providence
78 78 Villanova
80 79 Seton Hall
97 97 St. John's
124 122 Butler
166 166 DePaul
227 222 Georgetown
February 27 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
C’mon Nova!!!
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C’mon Nova!!!
And Seton Hall. Would be great to get both as Q1 road wins and Q2 home wins.
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And Seton Hall. Would be great to get both as Q1 road wins and Q2 home wins.
Agreed but I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Hall.
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There’s a few routes here.
1- Pre BET:
They play each other in Jersey, then SH at Providence and Nova hosts UConn.
A) for the extremely hopeful we would want a close non-needle moving game on Tuesday when they play each other and then both teams win as underdogs on Saturday and they would BOTH likely get into the top 75.
B) for the less hopeful crowd you’d want one of them to win in blowout fashion on Tuesday and then win again Saturday or just keep it close.
Either way, in scenario B if one team wins in a blowout on Tuesday they are the only one likely to get into the top 75 so root for them.
2- in the BET:
They are essentially locked into the 6/7 seeds so they play bottom feeders DePaul and Gtown in rd 1, must win game for both in the hope for top 75 as well as keeping their season alive.
Then they get the 2 and 3 seed so a win there would probably do it as well.
Pre BET seems more important here, because remember we’ve discussed that most of the seeding happens earlier in the week for the protected seeds so things could be locked in place by Thursday next week.
We’ve discussed when the committee meets before but I need help from Brew here since I don’t recall.
Brew, can you go thru the process as you know if with regards to day the committee meets and the order they go through selection, seeding, etc.
that’s always insightful data
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Big East Poll Rankings February 27, 2023
AP
6. MU
14. U Conn
19.X
20. Cooley & Company
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton
Coaches
6. MU
17. X
18. U Conn
20. Cooley & Company
23. Creighton
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There’s a few routes here.
1- Pre BET:
They play each other in Jersey, then SH at Providence and Nova hosts UConn.
A) for the extremely hopeful we would want a close non-needle moving game on Tuesday when they play each other and then both teams win as underdogs on Saturday and they would BOTH likely get into the top 75.
B) for the less hopeful crowd you’d want one of them to win in blowout fashion on Tuesday and then win again Saturday or just keep it close.
Either way, in scenario B if one team wins in a blowout on Tuesday they are the only one likely to get into the top 75 so root for them.
2- in the BET:
They are essentially locked into the 6/7 seeds so they play bottom feeders DePaul and Gtown in rd 1, must win game for both in the hope for top 75 as well as keeping their season alive.
Then they get the 2 and 3 seed so a win there would probably do it as well.
Pre BET seems more important here, because remember we’ve discussed that most of the seeding happens earlier in the week for the protected seeds so things could be locked in place by Thursday next week.
We’ve discussed when the committee meets before but I need help from Brew here since I don’t recall.
Brew, can you go thru the process as you know if with regards to day the committee meets and the order they go through selection, seeding, etc.
that’s always insightful data
For anyone who is interested in details on how the Selection Committee operates, I would recommend this item from the NCAA website:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-11-07/how-field-68-di-mens-teams-picked-march-madness-each-season
The text on this page is accompanied by four videos that describe (1) the general principles guiding the committee, and the various data that the committee receives for its consideration, (2) how the Committee selects the 36 at large teams that join the 32 automatic qualifiers in the NCAA field, (3) how the Committee develops the seed list that ranks the 68 teams from 1-68, and (4) how the teams are placed from the seed list into the bracket, taking into consideration the bracketing principles that require things like separating teams from the same conference so they don’t meet too early in the tournament, and placing teams as close as possible to their natural home areas.
The videos are generally pretty dry, but they do help to understand the specific steps the committee follows.I especially enjoyed the step by step example of how teams are placed from the seed list into the bracket. It serves as a reminder that, when geographic and conference factors are taken into account, teams are not placed in the bracket precisely as they would be if the seed list were followed blindly.
I didn’t catch from the videos any specific dates on which the Committee completes selection and seeding. But they do say that preliminary seed lists are developed before the field is final, but that placing teams in a bracket is not done until late Saturday or Sunday.
One broad takeaway I got from this is a reminder that, when all is said and done, the final selections and seedings are done by humans and not by computers. While the Committee members get a lot of data about teams being considered (including information from members that monitor and gather information from conferences and report that information to the committee) there does not appear to be any mandate to the members about how they apply that data in ranking teams.
Committee members are left to decide for themselves which are the “best” teams when voting on selection and seeding. Bracketologists do their best to predict how the Committee will seed teams based on what they have done in the past but it is impossible to determine whether one factor will carry more weight than another.
One specific aspect of the seeding process that I find interesting is the “scrubbing” of the seed list that the Committee does before it is made final. The process is described in detail in the Seeding video, but the essence of it is to go through the list one by one to ensure that the Committee is satisfied the two teams should not be flipped. This seems to be the process in which a head to head game between two teams might become a significant factor in placing one team over another (eg, Marquette over Baylor) if the teams land on consecutive places on the seed list.
When I look at this whole process with all of the layers of voting that involve members rating teams from 1-8 based on who they think are the “best” teams, I am even more convinced that some of the minutiae that fans can obsess over, like whether a particular game falls into Quad 1 or Quad 2, or the margin of victory in a particular game, really has extremely little impact when the members vote. If a member wants to put weight on the fact that a team won a conference championship, there is nothing stopping them from doing that.
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Thanks Blue. That makes sense especially in light of the early reveal. Clearly NET does not move the needle much.
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Marquette’s NET is 13 Tuesday
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 27, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
25 25 Xavier
37 37 Providence
78 78 Villanova
80 80 Seton Hall
97 97 St. John's
123 124 Butler
166 166 DePaul
226 227 Georgetown
February 28 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 27, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
25 25 Xavier
37 37 Providence
78 78 Villanova
80 80 Seton Hall
97 97 St. John's
123 124 Butler
166 166 DePaul
226 227 Georgetown
February 28 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Dammit - why aren’t we moving up????? 👀🙄
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Dammit - why aren’t we moving up????? 👀🙄
Because the NET hates us
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Algorithm specifically designed to hate MU.
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Algorithm specifically designed to hate MU.
Everybody hates us!!! 😤
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/wypKXPQggwaCA/giphy.gif)
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 28, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
15 16 Creighton
25 25 Xavier
38 37 Providence
76 78 Villanova
84 80 Seton Hall
98 97 St. John's
128 123 Butler
166 166 DePaul
225 226 Georgetown
March 1 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 28, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
15 16 Creighton
25 25 Xavier
38 37 Providence
76 78 Villanova
84 80 Seton Hall
98 97 St. John's
128 123 Butler
166 166 DePaul
225 226 Georgetown
March 1 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
So Nova is now 1 spot away from being another Q1 win.
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So Nova is now 1 spot away from being another Q1 win.
Come on Nova!! We really need them to upset UConn on Saturday!
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Come on Nova!! We really need them to upset UConn on Saturday!
Don’t even need an upset. Just to play better than expected.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 1,2023
New Old
7 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 15 Creighton
19 25 Xavier
40 38 Providence
76 76 Villanova
85 84 Seton Hall
98 98 St. John's
129 128 Butler
173 166 DePaul
231 225 Georgetown
March 2 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 1,2023
New Old
7 8 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 15 Creighton
19 25 Xavier
40 38 Providence
76 76 Villanova
85 84 Seton Hall
98 98 St. John's
129 128 Butler
173 166 DePaul
231 225 Georgetown
March 2 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Nice to see Creighton get rewarded for pummeling a beyond awful Georgetown team. 🧐
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Nice to see Creighton get rewarded for pummeling a beyond awful Georgetown team. 🧐
I mean they won by 40. 40 point wins against high majors are always at least a little impressive
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 2, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
19 19 Xavier
39 40 Providence
76 76 Villanova
85 85 Seton Hall
99 98 St. John's
129 129 Butler
171 173 DePaul
230 231 Georgetown
March 3 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 3, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
19 19 Xavier
39 39 Providence
76 76 Villanova
85 85 Seton Hall
98 99 St. John's
128 129 Butler
170 171 DePaul
231 230 Georgetown
March 4 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Marquette’s NET is 13 Today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 4 2023
New Old
6 7 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
22 19 Xavier
51 39 Providence
74 85 Seton Hall
79 76 Villanova
97 98 St. John's
131 128 Butler
172 170 DePaul
235 231 Georgetown
March 5 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Seton Hall Q1!!!
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So is that 7 total Q1 wins, or does only the away game at Seton Hall count as a Q1 win?
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So is that 7 total Q1 wins, or does only the away game at Seton Hall count as a Q1 win?
Only the away game. Was also hoping Villanova could upset UConn as well to move that road win into Q1 but it didn’t happen.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 5, 2023
New Old
6 6 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
22 22 Xavier
51 51 Providence
75 74 Seton Hall
80 79 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
131 131 Butler
172 172 DePaul
235 235 Georgetown
March 6 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Ranking March 6, 2023
AP
6. MU
11. U Conn
15. X
24. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Cooley & Company
Coaches
6. MU
14. U Conn
15. X
22. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Cooley & Company
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 6, 2023
New Old
6 6 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
22 22 Xavier
52 51 Providence
75 75 Seton Hall
80 80 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
131 131 Butler
173 172 DePaul
235 235 Georgetown
March 7 Team Sheets . MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 7. 2023
New Old
7 6 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
22 22 Xavier
53 52 Providence
75 75 Seton Hall
80 80 Villanova
97 97 St. John's
130 131 Butler
172 173 DePaul
237 235 Georgetown
March 8 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 8, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
13 13 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
23 22 Xavier
53 53 Providence
72 80 Villanova
78 75 Seton Hall
98 97 St. John's
133 130 Butler
169 172 DePaul
242 237 Georgetown
March 9 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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I feel like we have been sitting at 13 for so long. Makes me wonder what a loss or two would have done to our Net?
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Stupid Seton Hall.
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Redundant.
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I feel like we have been sitting at 13 for so long. Makes me wonder what a loss or two would have done to our Net?
Depends on the loss. Turn our 26 point win over Baylor into a 1 point loss? Probably drop several spots. Turn our 2 point win at Creighton into a 1 point loss? Probably still at 13
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 9, 2023
New Old
7 7 UConn
12 13 Marquette
13 14 Creighton
25 23 Xavier
55 53 Providence
74 72 Villanova
78 78 Seton Hall
98 98 St. John's
133 133 Butler
164 169 DePaul
242 242 Georgetown
March 10 Team Sheets . MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Baylor in the NET rear view, hopefully in the S Curve rear view as well!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 10, 2023
New Old
8 7 UConn
12 12 Marquette
16 13 Creighton
19 25 Xavier
56 55 Providence
75 74 Villanova
80 78 Seton Hall
99 98 St. John's
133 133 Butler
163 164 DePaul
243 242 Georgetown
March 11 Team Sheets. MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Question for the numbers guys. Why are Marquettes defensive metrics as low as they are?
That hard to dig out of a hole from the early season struggles?
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Question for the numbers guys. Why are Marquettes defensive metrics as low as they are?
That hard to dig out of a hole from the early season struggles?
Pace was way higher early in the season and gave up a lot of points/more points than expected.
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Question for the numbers guys. Why are Marquettes defensive metrics as low as they are?
That hard to dig out of a hole from the early season struggles?
1. Defensive rebounding. We give up an absurd amount of offensive boards.
2. Allowing teams, specifically bad offensive teams, to have good shooting games against us. Our defense had the tendency to play down to the quality of opponent. We stymied a lot of really good offensive units (for example, Xavier x3). But we allowed teams like St. John's, Wisconsin, and DePaul to have really good shooting games against us.
3. We foul more than we should on defense though we've cleaned that up in the second half of Big East play.
We counter that with an elite ability to turn teams over. You can give up a 3 or an offensive board if they never get a shot off in the first place!
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1. Defensive rebounding. We give up an absurd amount of offensive boards.
2. Allowing teams, specifically bad offensive teams, to have good shooting games against us. Our defense had the tendency to play down to the quality of opponent. We stymied a lot of really good offensive units (for example, Xavier x3). But we allowed teams like St. John's, Wisconsin, and DePaul to have really good shooting games against us.
3. We foul more than we should on defense though we've cleaned that up in the second half of Big East play.
We counter that with an elite ability to turn teams over. You can give up a 3 or an offensive board if they never get a shot off in the first place!
Good summary.
#2 stands out in my mind as the main reason the metrics are lower than they should on D.
There was a recently written great piece that Marquette plays down to the competition defensively, and plays up against good Q1 opposition.
In the end it kind of makes sense. Marquette is a squad that has been drive by that chip on its shoulder all season.
It’s easy, versus poorer competition, to get a bit softer defensively when you’ve got a lead, and or don’t really have that extra motivational edge to really get after it defensively.
That’s why the biggest game of Shakas Marquette tenure is the next one.
Win game 1
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our D on kenpom jumped 20 spots ronight5
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Agreed DocV. I read that article too and came to the same conclusion. Our defense is undervalued.
our D on kenpom jumped 20 spots ronight5
That's what happens when you hold a team that on the season shoots an eFG% of 55.6% (11th best in the country) to 38.5% eFG% (that would be last in the country by almost 5%)
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 13, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
12 12 Marquette
17 16 Creighton
22 19 Xavier
55 56 Providence
76 75 Villanova
78 80 Seton Hall
98 99 St. John's
131 133 Butler
164 163 DePaul
243 243 Georgetown
March 14 Team Sheets. MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Woo-hoo. Winning the BET raised MU's NET a whole spot.
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Woo-hoo. Winning the BET raised MU's NET a whole spot.
And still a spot behind St Mary’s - what a joke.
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If only we could have somehow proven that we're better than UConn -- maybe a neutral-site game (that actually was on UConn's de facto home court) between the teams could have decided it.
Nah ... use the NET!
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Woo-hoo. Winning the BET raised MU's NET a whole spot.
This article by Brian Hamilton in "The Atlantic" gets into why MU is not explained statistically.
https://theathletic.com/4299093/2023/03/12/marquette-final-four-college-basketball/?source=user_shared_article
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Woo-hoo. Winning the BET raised MU's NET a whole spot.
Kind of highlighting how even 3 games out of 34 can only change things so much in the higher ranks. There is no recency bias like in the voted polls.
MU is almost certainly going to be higher on the NCAA Seed list than a few teams ahead of them on the NET list, including UConn, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, and Tennessee.
For all of the carping about what the Selection Committee does, I think it helps to have a human element instead of relying blindly on a formula.
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Looking at who is in front of us - winning out w a run to the BET Final should give us a realistic shot at a 2 seed.
63% of 2 seeds make S16 vs 52% of 3s.
Let's get it done.
Let's get it done.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 12, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
12 12 Marquette
17 17 Creighton
22 22 Xavier
56 55 Providence
75 76 Villanova
77 78 Seton Hall
98 98 St. John's
131 131 Butler
163 164 DePaul
243 243 Georgetown
March 13 Team Sheets. MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings March 13,2023
AP
6.MU
10. U Conn
13. X
Other Receiving Votes
Creighton
Coaches
4 . MU
12.U Conn
14. X
23 . Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Cooley & Company
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So, now that MU has a KenPom top 50 defense I guess championship is possible?
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So, now that MU has a KenPom top 50 defense I guess championship is possible?
In the 20 seasons KenPom as been around, the national champion has been top 40 offensively and top 25 defensively.
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wades
Is there any way to find out MU's defensive rank has been over the last 12 games? I would have to think it is quite high and shows they are playing the best defense of the year at the right time.
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So, now that MU has a KenPom top 50 defense I guess championship is possible?
Somebody posted that the combined offensive and defensive rankings had to add up to less than 50 and that MU's was 55.
To be fair, same metric said Purdue couldn't win, either.
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In the 20 seasons KenPom as been around, the national champion has been top 40 offensively and top 25 defensively.
Wasn’t it noted that these numbers are after the season ended? If so, I think 5 more MU wins would probably put us close to the top 25 defensively which would fit the parameters.
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It is after the season ends and MU is trending that way. 46 on D.
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It is after the season ends and MU is trending that way. 46 on D.
https://kenpom.com/index.php
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wades
Is there any way to find out MU's defensive rank has been over the last 12 games? I would have to think it is quite high and shows they are playing the best defense of the year at the right time.
I can’t do it on KenPom but can on Torvik. Since the day after our last loss (at UCONN) MU is 12 on offense, 26 on defense, 8 overall.
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wades
Thank you. Any family down in Columbus?
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wades
Thank you. Any family down in Columbus?
Yes! Here with my parents and one brother. Hoping the road continues into next weekend and beyond.
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wades
Keep the run rolling. Five more wins!!
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wades
Keep the run rolling. Five more wins!!
No finish line goose.
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Final Big East NET rankings as of games of April 3, 2023
New Old
3 8 UConn
12 12 Marquette
14 17 Creighton
18 22 Xavier
51 56 Providence
71 75 Villanova
74 77 Seton Hall
91 98 St. John's
125 131 Butler
155 163 DePaul
240 243 Georgetown
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Big East Final Poll Rankings April 4, 2023
Coaches Poll
1. U Conn
12. Creighton
14. MU
15. X
Others Receiving Votes
The School formerly known as Cooley & Company.
AP
No post season Poll. AP Final Poll was done at end of regular season.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of Monday October 16, 2023. Will post NET daily when they become available in December.
AP
5. MU
6. U Conn
8. Creighton
22. Nova
Others Receiving Votes
Johnnies, X
Coaches
5. U Conn
7. MU
8. Creighton
20.Nova
Others Receiving Votes
X, Johnnies
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Big East Poll Rankings as of Monday October 16, 2023. Will post NET daily when they become available in December.
AP
5. MU
6. U Conn
8. Creighton
22. Nova
Others Receiving Votes
Johnnies, X
Coaches
5. U Conn
7. MU
8. Creighton
20.Nova
Others Receiving Votes
X, Johnnies
First In Season Polls come out next Monday
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Looking forward to seeing MU move up.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of Monday November 13 , 2023. Will post NET daily when they become available in December.
AP
4. MU
5. U Conn
8. Creighton
22. Nova
Others Receiving Votes
Johnnies
Coaches
4. U Conn
5. MU
7. Creighton
21.Nova
Others Receiving Votes
X, Johnnies
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Big East Poll Rankings as of Monday November 20 2023. Will post NET daily when they become available in December.
AP
4. MU
5. U Conn
8. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
Coaches
4. U Conn
5. MU
7. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
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Big East Poll Rankings as of Monday November 27,2023. Will post NET daily when they become available in December.
AP
3. MU
4. U Conn
15. Creighton
18. Nova
Coaches
3. MU
4. U Conn
14. Creighton
15. Nova
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Big East Poll Rankings as of Games of December 3, 2023
New Old
4 Creighton
9 UConn
10 Marquette
38 Butler
50 Villanova
61 Providence
68 Xavier
75 St. John's
81 Seton Hall
221 Georgetown
267 DePaul
December 4 Team Sheets. MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Notre Dame at 228 is a buy level opponent Saturday. And not a good one either.
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Big East Poll Rankings as of December 4, 2023
AP
5.U Conn
8. MU
10. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
Coaches
5. U Conn
7. MU
11. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Providence , Nova
Nova
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Bog East Poll Rankings as of December 4, 2023
AP
5.U Conn
8. MU
10. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
Coaches
5. U Conn
7. MU
11. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
Are we the Bog East now because DePaul and Georgetown lower our rankings so much?
Also, pretty sure I saw PC receiving some votes
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 4 , 2023
New Old
5 4 Creighton
8 10 Marquette
10 9 UConn
38 38 Butler
50 50 Villanova
61 61 Providence
68 68 Xavier
75 75 St. John's
81 81 Seton Hall
224 221 Georgetown
267 267 DePaul
Dec 5 Team Sheets . MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 5 ,2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton
8 10 UConn
9 8 Marquette
55 50 Villanova
61 38 Butler
63 61 Providence
77 81 Seton Hall
82 75 St. John's
89 68 Xavier
227 224 Georgetown
272 267 DePaul
December 6 Team Sheets . MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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The big east has been absolutely brutal in non conference outside of the top 3. If the tournament started right now, only 3 teams would be a lock and Nova/Providence would probably be last team in/play in game.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 5 ,2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton
8 10 UConn
9 8 Marquette
55 50 Villanova
61 38 Butler
63 61 Providence
77 81 Seton Hall
82 75 St. John's
89 68 Xavier
227 224 Georgetown
272 267 DePaul
December 6 Team Sheets . MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
Did Butler really drop 23 spots for beating Buffalo by “only” 13?
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Did Butler really drop 23 spots for beating Buffalo by “only” 13?
I'm sure FAU and Michigan State losing convincingly didn't help either.
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Did Butler really drop 23 spots for beating Buffalo by “only” 13?
See what Brew said, also yeah. This isn't a Nate Oates Buffalo team. Buffalo is one of the 30 worst teams (out of 362) this season. A supposed top 40 team should be blowing them out by 20-30
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Jayzus, we could have 4 q4 games on our BE schedule.
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Jayzus, we could have 4 q4 games on our BE schedule.
Yeah TBH if Depaul and Gtown both get covid outbreaks during our games vs them, wouldnt be the worst thing
Only benefit in playing them is winning by about what we are tonight
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Marquette really helped themselves in the NET tonight, even though the -9 in the last four probably cost a few spots
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 6, 2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton
7 8 UConn
9 9 Marquette
55 55 Villanova
56 61 Butler
59 82 St. John's
65 63 Providence
85 77 Seton Hall
90 89 Xavier
220 227 Georgetown
272 272 DePaul
December 7 Team Sheets. MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 7, 2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton
7 7 UConn
9 9 Marquette
55 55 Villanova
56 56 Butler
59 59 St. John's
64 65 Providence
85 85 Seton Hall
91 90 Xavier
221 220 Georgetown
269 272 DePaul
December 8 Team Sheets . MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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All this net is showing me is that we should go 10-0 at home and 7-3 minimum on the road.
I don’t think this is going to be like last year either where we count on UConn losing to the likes of Xavier , St. John’s etc. We need to go 17-3 minimum if we want to win the conference.
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I'm calling it now....we go 4-0 against UCONN this year 😜
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I'm calling it now....we go 4-0 against UCONN this year 😜
Ill give you $5,000
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Ill give you $5,000
I'll take it...but yeah, the odds on that parlay would be pretty high!
And if that happened, Hurley would be seeing golden eagles in his sleep for a long time!
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All this net is showing me is that we should go 10-0 at home and 7-3 minimum on the road.
I don’t think this is going to be like last year either where we count on UConn losing to the likes of Xavier , St. John’s etc. We need to go 17-3 minimum if we want to win the conference.
UConn had a 2-6 stretch last season. If that happens to Marquette, folks here will go absolutely bat-shyte (as did UConn fans last season).
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UConn had a 2-6 stretch last season. If that happens to Marquette, folks here will go absolutely bat-shyte (as did UConn fans last season).
And as fans of any team with high aspirations would.
I’m always amused at the suggestions that MU fans as a group are somehow more fragile or volatile than fans of any other team.
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It’s really too early to give the NET anything more than a cursory look.
A lot of things will change significantly once the conference seasons get going and the schedule strengths of teams in the major conferences stabilizes. And some of the teams that currently have high NET ratings (like Princeton) will be seeing their NET fall even if they keep winning in their conferences.
The best thing is that MU has put itself in good position because of the Maui tournament and other OOC games against strong teams. I’m confident that UCLA and Texas will move up as the season progresses and some of the other conference teams will too.The teams that are downgraded now are ones that have lost their only games against good opponents and have beaten a number of really bad ones.
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It’s really too early to give the NET anything more than a cursory look.
A lot of things will change significantly once the conference seasons get going and the schedule strengths of teams in the major conferences stabilizes. And some of the teams that currently have high NET ratings (like Princeton) will be seeing their NET fall even if they keep winning in their conferences.
The best thing is that MU has put itself in good position because of the Maui tournament and other OOC games against strong teams. I’m confident that UCLA and Texas will move up as the season progresses and some of the other conference teams will too.The teams that are downgraded now are ones that have lost their only games against good opponents and have beaten a number of really bad ones.
Plus, the St. Thomas game will be huge by the end of the year
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 8, 2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton
8 9 Marquette
9 7 UConn
55 55 Villanova
59 56 Butler
60 59 St. John's
65 64 Providence
82 85 Seton Hall
87 91 Xavier
222 221 Georgetown
267 269 DePaul
December 9 Team Sheets. MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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MU SOS: 5 8-)
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MU SOS: 5 8-)
Unfortunately playing Notre Dame will not be helping that.
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But they are more fragile. What other schools have COLE?
And as fans of any team with high aspirations would.
I’m always amused at the suggestions that MU fans as a group are somehow more fragile or volatile than fans of any other team.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 9, 2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton Big East
7 9 UConn
8 8 Marquette
51 55 Villanova
52 60 St. John's
54 65 Providence
59 59 Butler
70 87 Xavier
98 82 Seton Hall
234 222 Georgetown
264 267 DePaul
December 10 Team Sheets.MU is 8
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11,2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton Big East
7 7 UConn
9 8 Marquette
48 51 Villanova
56 54 Providence
60 59 Butler
67 70 Xavier
70 52 St. John's
116 98 Seton Hall
231 234 Georgetown
257 264 DePaul
December 11 Team Sheets . MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 19, 2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton Big East
7 7 UConn
9 8 Marquette
48 51 Villanova
56 54 Providence
60 59 Butler
67 70 Xavier
70 52 St. John's
116 98 Seton Hall
231 234 Georgetown
257 264 DePaul
December 11 Team Sheets . MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
The NET really needs to make an adjustment for blowing out horrible teams. From what I can tell, that’s the only reason Creighton and Iowa St are in the top 10.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 19, 2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton Big East
7 7 UConn
9 8 Marquette
48 51 Villanova
56 54 Providence
60 59 Butler
67 70 Xavier
70 52 St. John's
116 98 Seton Hall
231 234 Georgetown
257 264 DePaul
December 11 Team Sheets . MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
I'm very impressed that you know the NETS for 12/19. ;D
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You just simply do not have to worry about net too much this early in the season. Everyone's schedules are crazy unbalanced, and even at decision time the selection committee looks a lot more at impressive wins over top competition than margin of victory over bad teams, and seeds accordingly. The numbers will make more sense the more games that get played, any outlier preformances weigh heavy right now. I don't think Texas is only 1 point better than Louisville, for instance. But that is one of only 9 data points you can look at for Texas, so its gonna look real bad til there is more data available.
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I'm very impressed that you know the NETS for 12/19. ;D
Correction Noted
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Big East Poll Rankings December 11, 2023
AP
5. U Conn
7. MU
8 . Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Providence
Coaches
5. U Conn
7. MU
8 . Creighton
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 11, 2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton
7 7 UConn
9 9 Marquette
47 48 Villanova
56 56 Providence
60 60 Butler
69 70 St. John's
70 67 Xavier
118 116 Seton Hall
230 231 Georgetown
258 257 DePaul
December 12 Team Sheets. MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 12, 2023
New Old
5 5 Creighton
7 7 UConn
9 9 Marquette
47 47 Villanova
57 56 Providence
59 60 Butler
68 69 St. John's
69 70 Xavier
110 118 Seton Hall
242 230 Georgetown
259 258 DePaul
December 13 Team Sheets . MU is 9
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 13, 2023
New Old
6 7 UConn
8 9 Marquette
9 5 Creighton
46 47 Villanova
57 59 Butler
58 57 Providence
67 68 St. John's
68 69 Xavier
111 110 Seton Hall
240 242 Georgetown
265 259 DePaul
December 14 Team Sheets. MU is 8
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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How big a drop?
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Huge..
How big a drop?
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How big a drop?
Almost as big as a loss
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 14, 2023
New Old
6 6 UConn
8 8 Marquette
9 9 Creighton
46 46 Villanova
56 57 Butler
59 58 Providence
67 67 St. John's
68 68 Xavier
113 111 Seton Hall
240 240 Georgetown
265 265 DePaul
December 15 Team Sheets. MU is 8
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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OMG WE PLAYED SO HORRIBLY IT WILL DROP US SO MUCH
Big East NET rankings as of games of December 14, 2023
New Old
6 6 UConn
8 8 Marquette
9 9 Creighton
46 46 Villanova
56 57 Butler
59 58 Providence
67 67 St. John's
68 68 Xavier
113 111 Seton Hall
240 240 Georgetown
265 265 DePaul
December 15 Team Sheets. MU is 8
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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So Providence is either outright good or overachieve. At their place is such an important game. If we are really good, really tough, really top 5, we win it.
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So Providence is either outright good or overachieve. At their place is such an important game. If we are really good, really tough, really top 5, we win it.
And if UCONN was really good, really tough, really top 5 last year, they beat St. John’s at home.
It’s college basketball. Good teams lose games against teams they’re better than. First conference road game is always tough. Weird things always happen at Providence. If we lose it doesn’t mean we aren’t really good or really rough or really top 5.
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Wait ... is this true?
We were favored to beat a team at home by 20+, only beat them by 5 ... and we didn't drop even a single spot in NET?
I didn't really think we'd go from 8 to 40 or something crazy like that, but I admit I thought we'd drop some. I guess I just don't understand how it works.
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Wait ... is this true?
We were favored to beat a team at home by 20+, only beat them by 5 ... and we didn't drop even a single spot in NET?
I didn't really think we'd go from 8 to 40 or something crazy like that, but I admit I thought we'd drop some. I guess I just don't understand how it works.
They don't publish raw NET scores, just your rank. So you have no idea how far behind or in front of another teams metrics you are before the game. There might be a big drop off right after us that closed the gap due to the non-ideal result.
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The formula also probably weighs wins and losses more than we think. A loss may have dropped us significantly even with the same efficiency metrics.
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Wait ... is this true?
We were favored to beat a team at home by 20+, only beat them by 5 ... and we didn't drop even a single spot in NET?
I didn't really think we'd go from 8 to 40 or something crazy like that, but I admit I thought we'd drop some. I guess I just don't understand how it works.
As stated it was more so probably our gap closed on teams behind us. But just look whose behind us. Its Creighton who just got beat badly to a poor team and fell from 5-9 only. Gonna be hard to drop a ton when you win like we did.
Also even in Kenpom we only dropped two spots from 5 to 7. With Kenpom/NEt having different formulas all the metrics seem to be evening out now. The effecency is still there even if yesterday hurt it a bit.
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Wait ... is this true?
We were favored to beat a team at home by 20+, only beat them by 5 ... and we didn't drop even a single spot in NET?
I didn't really think we'd go from 8 to 40 or something crazy like that, but I admit I thought we'd drop some. I guess I just don't understand how it works.
Agree NET surprised me too. Saint Thomas went from 185 to 165. And Marquette went from a tight 8 to a looser 8. Haha.
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Agree NET surprised me too. Saint Thomas went from 185 to 165. And Marquette went from a tight 8 to a looser 8. Haha.
The freshman 15, so to speak
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The freshman 15, so to speak
LOL yes Saint Thomas lost their Freshman 15 so to speak and probably should have changed Marquette was a solid lock 8 to a not a lock 8 haha.
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4 days for a hard look in the mirror. They’ll tighten it back up for conference play
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4 days for a hard look in the mirror. They’ll tighten it back up for conference play
Ah yes agree!!
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Or else they’ll hear about it from their mothers over Christmas break
Okay I’ll stop..
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Thanks for the info, folks.
In the past few days I've learned that computers cream their pants and that a "bad win" often isn't all that bad to the sex-crazed machines.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 15, 2023
New Old
6 6 UConn
8 8 Marquette
9 9 Creighton
46 46 Villanova
55 56 Butler
58 59 Providence
67 67 St. John's
68 68 Xavier
112 113 Seton Hall
237 240 Georgetown
266 265 DePaul
December 16 Team Sheets. MU is 8
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 16, 2023
New Old
5 6 UConn
7 8 Marquette
11 9 Creighton
42 46 Villanova
51 55 Butler
63 67 St. John's
67 68 Xavier
69 58 Providence
113 112 Seton Hall
203 237 Georgetown
274 266 DePaul
December 17 Team sheets . MU is 7
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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I haven't looked but bump probably due to Baylor falling off a cliff.
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Why did Providence fall 11 points?
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Why did Providence fall 11 points?
Failed to cover against Sacred Heart (22-point favorites), but also because teams behind them had notably better than expected results: SMU, Texas Tech, St. John's, Iowa, Texas for example. It's not just about what you do, but what the teams around you do.
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Thanks. I still find the NET confusing. We did t get dinged for failing to cover against St Thomas. I guess those behind us didn’t over perform.
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Thanks. I still find the NET confusing. We did t get dinged for failing to cover against St Thomas. I guess those behind us didn’t over perform.
Except that's likely not true. I have no doubt our NET took a significant hit because of that result. But because you only see the rank number, it may not look that way. You have to think of it like kenpom, where the number that matters is the Adjusted Efficiency Margin, not the rank. Using 30 as a completely arbitrary cap, NET could've looked like this before and after the St. Thomas game:
1) Arizona 30.00
2) Houston 29.85
3) Purdue 29.65
4) BYU 29.20
5) Baylor 27.80
6) UConn 27.75
7) Iowa State 27.70
8) Marquette 27.50
9) Creighton 25.25
10) Tennessee 25.20
11) Alabama 25.15
12) Indiana State 24.90
So imagine the St. Thomas result was a massive hit to their rating. Marquette wins, but loses a full 2 points in the NET. You have the following next day rankings and ratings (we'll assume none of the others changed since none of them played 12/14):
1) Arizona 30.00
2) Houston 29.85
3) Purdue 29.65
4) BYU 29.20
5) Baylor 27.80
6) UConn 27.75
7) Iowa State 27.70
8) Marquette 25.50
9) Creighton 25.25
10) Tennessee 25.20
11) Alabama 25.15
12) Indiana State 24.90
Marquette's rating changed massively, but because of the gap they had built in, their rank didn't change at all. The two aren't automatically linked. But it's very possible you could have big gaps like that. Look at some of the Pomeroy disparities between positions:
1) Houston +31.21
4) Arizona +29.55
5) BYU +25.07
8) Auburn +23.25
21) Kentucky +20.37
38) Florida +15.89
143) Longwood +1.83
205) Chattanooga -2.66
In this case, the gap between 1-Houston and 4-Arizona (1.66) is pretty similar to the gap between 5-BYU and 8-Auburn (1.82), but the one-rank gap between 4-Arizona and 5-BYU (4.48) if applied further down is a 16-rank gap between 5-BYU and 21-Kentucky (+4.70) and another 17-rank gap if applied again to 21-Kentucky and 38-Florida (4.48).
We only have a ranked picture of NET because they don't share the formula, but there are almost certainly gaps like this where the disparity between two teams might be one in rank, but the gap further down the rankings would equate to 15, 20, or more spots. Look at the 78-rank gap between Longwood and Chattanooga (4.49). That's a titanic difference in ranks for virtually the same efficiency difference as 4/5 have.
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Thanks Brew. This is extremely helpful.
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Thanks Brew. This is extremely helpful.
My favorite moments on Scoop :)
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My favorite moments on Scoop :)
I give your post a C. I expected and received detailed insight from you.
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Great explanation, brewski.
I will say I’m still getting a kick out of the fact that even though our only game this past week was a sh1tshow win over St. Thomas, we actually moved up from 8 to 7 in the NET.
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I give your post a C. I expected and received detailed insight from you.
I try to keep my target to meeting expectations. The less people expect, the less you disappoint them ;D
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Except that's likely not true. I have no doubt our NET took a significant hit because of that result. But because you only see the rank number, it may not look that way. You have to think of it like kenpom, where the number that matters is the Adjusted Efficiency Margin, not the rank. Using 30 as a completely arbitrary cap, NET could've looked like this before and after the St. Thomas game:
1) Arizona 30.00
2) Houston 29.85
3) Purdue 29.65
4) BYU 29.20
5) Baylor 27.80
6) UConn 27.75
7) Iowa State 27.70
8) Marquette 27.50
9) Creighton 25.25
10) Tennessee 25.20
11) Alabama 25.15
12) Indiana State 24.90
So imagine the St. Thomas result was a massive hit to their rating. Marquette wins, but loses a full 2 points in the NET. You have the following next day rankings and ratings (we'll assume none of the others changed since none of them played 12/14):
1) Arizona 30.00
2) Houston 29.85
3) Purdue 29.65
4) BYU 29.20
5) Baylor 27.80
6) UConn 27.75
7) Iowa State 27.70
8) Marquette 25.50
9) Creighton 25.25
10) Tennessee 25.20
11) Alabama 25.15
12) Indiana State 24.90
Marquette's rating changed massively, but because of the gap they had built in, their rank didn't change at all. The two aren't automatically linked. But it's very possible you could have big gaps like that. Look at some of the Pomeroy disparities between positions:
1) Houston +31.21
4) Arizona +29.55
5) BYU +25.07
8) Auburn +23.25
21) Kentucky +20.37
38) Florida +15.89
143) Longwood +1.83
205) Chattanooga -2.66
In this case, the gap between 1-Houston and 4-Arizona (1.66) is pretty similar to the gap between 5-BYU and 8-Auburn (1.82), but the one-rank gap between 4-Arizona and 5-BYU (4.48) if applied further down is a 16-rank gap between 5-BYU and 21-Kentucky (+4.70) and another 17-rank gap if applied again to 21-Kentucky and 38-Florida (4.48).
We only have a ranked picture of NET because they don't share the formula, but there are almost certainly gaps like this where the disparity between two teams might be one in rank, but the gap further down the rankings would equate to 15, 20, or more spots. Look at the 78-rank gap between Longwood and Chattanooga (4.49). That's a titanic difference in ranks for virtually the same efficiency difference as 4/5 have.
Excellent Analysis.
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But Providence had a solid win over Sacred Heart….0
Failed to cover against Sacred Heart (22-point favorites), but also because teams behind them had notably better than expected results: SMU, Texas Tech, St. John's, Iowa, Texas for example. It's not just about what you do, but what the teams around you do.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 17, 2023
New Old
5 5 UConn
7 7 Marquette
9 11 Creighton
47 42 Villanova
53 51 Butler
64 63 St. John's
65 67 Xavier
71 69 Providence
95 113 Seton Hall
196 203 Georgetown
270 274 DePaul
December 18th Team Sheets . MU is 7
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings December 18. 2023
AP
5. U Conn
6 . MU
12. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Providence
Coaches
5. U Conn
6. MU
14. Creighton
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 18, 2023
New Old
5 5 UConn
7 7 Marquette
9 9 Creighton
46 47 Villanova
53 53 Butler
63 65 Xavier
66 64 St. John's
70 71 Providence
95 95 Seton Hall
199 196 Georgetown
271 270 DePaul
December 19 Team Sheets. MU is 7
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 19, 2023
New Old
5 5 UConn
8 9 Creighton
13 7 Marquette
45 46 Villanova
52 53 Butler
54 70 Providence
63 63 Xavier
71 66 St. John's
92 95 Seton Hall
210 199 Georgetown
272 271 DePaul
December 20 Team Sheets. MU is 13
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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So … from a 2 to 3 or 4 seed ? Yikes
* yes … I know… long way to go.
Gotta win the next two.
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https://bracketologists.com/conferences/
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 20, 2023
New Old
6 5 UConn
10 13 Marquette
13 8 Creighton
36 45 Villanova
52 52 Butler
57 54 Providence
58 71 St. John's
72 63 Xavier
77 92 Seton Hall
207 210 Georgetown
272 272 DePaul
December 21 Team Sheets. MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 21, 2022
New Old
6 6 UConn
11 13 Creighton
12 10 Marquette
41 36 Villanova
51 52 Butler
53 58 St. John's
54 57 Providence
72 72 Xavier
81 77 Seton Hall
203 207 Georgetown
271 272 DePaul
December 22 Team Sheets. MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 22, 2023
New Old
7 6 UConn
11 12 Marquette
13 11 Creighton
41 41 Villanova
52 51 Butler
55 53 St. John's
56 54 Providence
73 72 Xavier
81 81 Seton Hall
209 203 Georgetown
268 271 DePaul
December 23 Team Sheets. MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of December 23, 2023
New Old
8 7 UConn
11 11 Marquette
12 13 Creighton
31 41 Villanova
50 55 St. John's
52 56 Providence
55 52 Butler
60 73 Xavier
88 81 Seton Hall
208 209 Georgetown
284 268 DePaul
December 24 Team Sheets. MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 24, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
11 11 Marquette
13 12 Creighton
31 31 Villanova
51 50 St. John's
53 52 Providence
55 55 Butler
60 60 Xavier
88 88 Seton Hall
205 208 Georgetown
284 284 DePaul
December 25 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings December 25 ,2023
AP
5. U Conn
10. MU
22. Creighton
25 . Providence
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
Coaches
Have not released this weeks poll. Will update when available
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Big East Poll Rankings December 25 ,2023
AP
5. U Conn
10. MU
22. Creighton
25 . Providence
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
Coaches Poll December 26, 2023
5. U Conn
8. MU
20. Creighton
25. Providence
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 27, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
11 11 Marquette
13 13 Creighton
31 31 Villanova
52 51 St. John's
53 53 Providence
55 55 Butler
60 60 Xavier
88 88 Seton Hall
205 205 Georgetown
284 284 DePaul
December 28, Team Sheets. MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 27, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
11 11 Marquette
13 13 Creighton
31 31 Villanova
52 51 St. John's
53 53 Providence
55 55 Butler
60 60 Xavier
88 88 Seton Hall
205 205 Georgetown
284 284 DePaul
December 28, Team Sheets. MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
so just on the surface of it...does BigEast get 8 teams in the field of 68?
I know we'll beat each other up and a chunk of the 68 are auto-bids that push out some good teams....but these numbers arent so bad for a conference.
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so just on the surface of it...does BigEast get 8 teams in the field of 68?
I know we'll beat each other up and a chunk of the 68 are auto-bids that push out some good teams....but these numbers arent so bad for a conference.
No
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so just on the surface of it...does BigEast get 8 teams in the field of 68?
I know we'll beat each other up and a chunk of the 68 are auto-bids that push out some good teams....but these numbers arent so bad for a conference.
https://barttorvik.com/tranketology.php
T-Ranketology projects BE with 6 and Butler/X vaguely knocking on the door. Unlikely, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility
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https://barttorvik.com/tranketology.php
T-Ranketology projects BE with 6 and Butler/X vaguely knocking on the door. Unlikely, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility
Scoop told me 3 bids for the BE this year.
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What part of scoop? Those that know ball? or one of the rest of us that don't know ball?
Scoop told me 3 bids for the BE this year.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 28, 2023
New Old
8 8 UConn
11 11 Marquette
13 13 Creighton
30 31 Villanova
51 52 St. John's
53 53 Providence
56 55 Butler
60 60 Xavier
87 88 Seton Hall
204 205 Georgetown
284 284 DePaul
December 29 Team Sheets. MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 29, 2023
New Old
9 8 UConn
12 11 Marquette
15 13 Creighton
29 30 Villanova
49 51 St. John's
57 53 Providence
59 56 Butler
63 60 Xavier
89 87 Seton Hall
202 204 Georgetown
282 284 DePaul
December 30 Team Sheets. MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 30, 2023
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 12 Marquette
16 15 Creighton
28 29 Villanova
49 57 Providence
50 49 St. John's
57 59 Butler
61 63 Xavier
88 89 Seton Hall
203 202 Georgetown
277 282 DePaul
December 31 Team Sheets. MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 30, 2023
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 12 Marquette
16 15 Creighton
28 29 Villanova
49 57 Providence
50 49 St. John's
57 59 Butler
61 63 Xavier
88 89 Seton Hall
203 202 Georgetown
277 282 DePaul
December 31 Team Sheets. MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
Thanks Herman Cain....when I find myself curious the day after a game where MU stands, this is where I go since you faithfully post this list. Nice service for scoop.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 31, 2023
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 10 Marquette
14 16 Creighton
26 28 Villanova
49 49 Providence
50 50 St. John's
60 57 Butler
61 61 Xavier
90 88 Seton Hall
204 203 Georgetown
276 277 DePaul
January 1 Team Sheets. MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings January 1, 2024
AP
4. U Conn
7. MU
23. Providence
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton Nova
Coaches
Did not release today. Will post when they release
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Big East NET rankings as of games of December 31, 2023
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 10 Marquette
14 16 Creighton
26 28 Villanova
49 49 Providence
50 50 St. John's
60 57 Butler
61 61 Xavier
90 88 Seton Hall
204 203 Georgetown
276 277 DePaul
January 1 Team Sheets. MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
DePaul, JFC
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 1, 2024
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 10 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
26 26 Villanova
50 49 Providence
51 50 St. John's
59 60 Butler
61 61 Xavier
90 90 Seton Hall
203 204 Georgetown
277 276 DePaul
January 2 Team Sheets. MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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I think DePaul is way too high at 277 …
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Big East Poll Rankings January 1, 2024
AP
4. U Conn
7. MU
23. Providence
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton Nova
Coaches
Did not release today. Will post when they release
Big East Poll Rankings January 1, 2024
AP
4. U Conn
7. MU
23. Providence
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton, Nova
Coaches
4. U Conn
7. MU
23. Providence
Others Receiving Votes
Creighton, Nova
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So how does MU get back to the top 4? I have a feeling that "just keep winning" won't do it until UConn. And our first one with them is away.
I know winning the BE regular season and BET will do it right? Top 4? Or do we need 3-4 teams to lose 3-4 games?
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So how does MU get back to the top 4? I have a feeling that "just keep winning" won't do it until UConn. And our first one with them is away.
I know winning the BE regular season and BET will do it right? Top 4? Or do we need 3-4 teams to lose 3-4 games?
Top four in NET or top four in AP/Coaches poll?
Top four in NET, win by more than you're expected to. The wider the margin the better. Lose by less than you're expected to (if all all hopefully). The narrower the margin the better.
Top four in AP/Coaches poll, don't lose + teams in front of you lose.
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Top four in NET or top four in AP/Coaches poll?
Top four in NET, win by more than you're expected to. The wider the margin the better. Lose by less than you're expected to (if all all hopefully). The narrower the margin the better.
Top four in AP/Coaches poll, don't lose + teams in front of you lose.
Top 4 as in a 1 seed?
I would think Marquette has a real shot at that if they win the Big East again. Better wins in the NonCon this year compared to last and they snatched that 2 seed pretty convincingly last year.
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Top 4 as in a 1 seed?
I would think Marquette has a real shot at that if they win the Big East again. Better wins in the NonCon this year compared to last and they snatched that 2 seed pretty convincingly last year.
Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how many wins it takes to win the Beast as well as how other top teams do. A Beast champion is not guaranteed a 1 seed.
I'll also say it now since I'm sure it will be coming once bracketology starts to ramp up, a top 4 ranking in an AP/Coaches poll does not guarantee a 1 seed. A top 4 NET ranking does not guarantee a 1 seed.
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Top four in NET or top four in AP/Coaches poll?
Top four in NET, win by more than you're expected to. The wider the margin the better. Lose by less than you're expected to (if all all hopefully). The narrower the margin the better.
Top four in AP/Coaches poll, don't lose + teams in front of you lose.
Sure that's basically how you move up and down. But my question is of threshold. Ultimately what gets us in that top 4 (of whatever) that gets us squarely in the conversation of a 1 seed.
Last year the 1s had 3,5,5,7 losses with Kansas being that 7. The 2s had 5,6,6,8 losses. So obviously no magic number. But you can get an idea that you generally need to be in that <6 loss group to be comfortable with a 1 seed. So what gets us there...lose 2 more regular season...maybe 1 more in BET? is that too much "losing". What if UConn wins the BE? 17-3 and we're 16-4?
Just speculation. 1 seeds are such a high bar. And personally I don't mind a 2 like last year. BE and BET champs defines a successful season, not a NAT, but being a fan is hoping for it all.
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Sure that's basically how you move up and down. But my question is of threshold. Ultimately what gets us in that top 4 (of whatever) that gets us squarely in the conversation of a 1 seed.
Last year the 1s had 3,5,5,7 losses with Kansas being that 7. The 2s had 5,6,6,8 losses. So obviously no magic number. But you can get an idea that you generally need to be in that <6 loss group to be comfortable with a 1 seed. So what gets us there...lose 2 more regular season...maybe 1 more in BET? is that too much "losing". What if UConn wins the BE? 17-3 and we're 16-4?
Just speculation. 1 seeds are such a high bar. And personally I don't mind a 2 like last year. BE and BET champs defines a successful season, not a NAT, but being a fan is hoping for it all.
You seem so close to being able to grasp it. It depends on what other top teams do. If Purdue runs the table, Kansas runs the table, and Tenn runs the table, our margin of error is extremely small. All of that happening is extremely unlikely IMO. Win by more than we're expected to, avoid non Q1 losses and things will end up just fine.
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So how does MU get back to the top 4? I have a feeling that "just keep winning" won't do it until UConn. And our first one with them is away.
UConn already lost to Seton Hall by 15 points, and quite possibly they'll lose several other Big East games, especially while Clingan is sidelined. They lose even once and we keep winning, we'll move ahead of them (or perhaps more correctly, they'll fall behind us) the week they lose.
Of course, we could lose a time or 3 as well. We gotta go to Seton Hall in just a few days.
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Sure that's basically how you move up and down. But my question is of threshold. Ultimately what gets us in that top 4 (of whatever) that gets us squarely in the conversation of a 1 seed.
Last year the 1s had 3,5,5,7 losses with Kansas being that 7. The 2s had 5,6,6,8 losses. So obviously no magic number. But you can get an idea that you generally need to be in that <6 loss group to be comfortable with a 1 seed. So what gets us there...lose 2 more regular season...maybe 1 more in BET? is that too much "losing". What if UConn wins the BE? 17-3 and we're 16-4?
Just speculation. 1 seeds are such a high bar. And personally I don't mind a 2 like last year. BE and BET champs defines a successful season, not a NAT, but being a fan is hoping for it all.
Teal?
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Teal?
I'm going to show my scoop ignorance here
Words in Teal have a special meaning?
So what is that? Forgive me please.... :-[
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You seem so close to being able to grasp it. It depends on what other top teams do. If Purdue runs the table, Kansas runs the table, and Tenn runs the table, our margin of error is extremely small. All of that happening is extremely unlikely IMO. Win by more than we're expected to, avoid non Q1 losses and things will end up just fine.
You're grasping my lack of grasping and making some good points. Thanks ;)
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I'm going to show my scoop ignorance here
Words in Teal have a special meaning?
So what is that? Forgive me please.... :-[
Teal means you’re being sarcastic
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 2, 2024
New Old
9 9 UConn
11 10 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
27 26 Villanova
46 51 St. John's
50 50 Providence
61 61 Xavier
62 59 Butler
89 90 Seton Hall
211 203 Georgetown
283 277 DePaul
January 4, Team Sheets. MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 2, 2004
New Old
9 9 UConn
11 10 Marquette
14 14 Creighton
27 26 Villanova
46 51 St. John's
50 50 Providence
61 61 Xavier
62 59 Butler
89 90 Seton Hall
211 203 Georgetown
283 277 DePaul
January 4, Team Sheets. MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
2004's going to be a rough year for our NET soon. Surprised we're that high with ND being the only big win.
How are we doing in 2024?
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2004's going to be a rough year for our NET soon. Surprised we're that high with ND being the only big win.
How are we doing in 2024?
Correction Noted.
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Thanks for posting these each day Herm……I check it everyday, and wouldn’t otherwise.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 3, 2024
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 11 Marquette
13 14 Creighton
30 27 Villanova
46 46 St. John's
59 61 Xavier
62 50 Providence
63 62 Butler
77 89 Seton Hall
210 211 Georgetown
282 283 DePaul
January 4 Team Sheets . MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 3, 2004
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 11 Marquette
13 14 Creighton
30 27 Villanova
46 46 St. John's
59 61 Xavier
62 50 Providence
63 62 Butler
77 89 Seton Hall
210 211 Georgetown
282 283 DePaul
January 4 Team Sheets . MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
So I compared this to the Dec 19 Nets just before conference play and you can really see the effect of the BE beating each other up. The numbers are compressing for the top 8. If the quality wins don't age well, and the collective beat down continues, might not see anyone under 10 by the end. Someone has to really stand out (MU?)
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So I compared this to the Dec 19 Nets just before conference play and you can really see the effect of the BE beating each other up. The numbers are compressing for the top 8. If the quality wins don't age well, and the collective beat down continues, might not see anyone under 10 by the end. Someone has to really stand out (MU?)
Sure, but look at last year. We were #25 at this time and finished #12. If we have a similar season to last year, we'll move up to at least the middle of the top-10. I strongly suspect BYU and ISU won't be there at the end of the year. The B10 and SEC currently both have two top-10 teams, I doubt they both do at the end of the year. My guess is Purdue, Houston or Kansas, and Arizona are all going to be in that top-10 mix. But the rest of it is pretty wide open.
As much as people don't believe it, NET doesn't have much impact on a team's seeding. The biggest question will be if we have a top-4 or top-8 resume, which any top-10 NET is good enough to warrant if the non-con ages well and the conference performance is adequate. To be assured a 1-seed, we need to win 16-18 games in conference play. At this point, I would say 16 is a 2 at worst, possible 1, 17 is right on the edge of the 1/2 line, and 18 is a certain 1-seed. Basically, we need to not slip up for the next 2 months.
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So I compared this to the Dec 19 Nets just before conference play and you can really see the effect of the BE beating each other up. The numbers are compressing for the top 8. If the quality wins don't age well, and the collective beat down continues, might not see anyone under 10 by the end. Someone has to really stand out (MU?)
Everyone's kind of in the same boat. I don't think the B12 will be able to keep 4 teams in the top 11, BYU and ISU certainly don't strike me as teams that will be able to sustain their metrics into conference play (BYU has 10 Q3+Q4 games that have all been blow outs, ISU has 10 Q3+Q4 games with only one having a margin in the single digits). Illinois could stumble out of the top too depending on how the Shannon situation progresses (also 9 Q3+Q4 games that were all at least double digit wins). Really all it takes is a few bad data points to significantly hurt your NET. Win by more than you're supposed to, lose by less than you're supposed to and everything will end up just fine.
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Bama is also high in the NET with 5 losses and not a lot in terms of wins other than blow outs.
Solid chance they fall out too even if they are better than a typical 5 loss team.
SHU with a huge jump almost to a q1 road game. X went up even with their loss so they are still comfortably Q1 road even with 7 Ls(tho we dont play them til the end there)
Nova just hanging on to being a Q1 home for us
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Two more spots and SHU on Saturday would have been our 7th Q1 game this season so far.
The only other team with 7 at this point is... Wisconsin.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 3, 2004
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 11 Marquette
13 14 Creighton
30 27 Villanova
46 46 St. John's
59 61 Xavier
62 50 Providence
63 62 Butler
77 89 Seton Hall
210 211 Georgetown
282 283 DePaul
January 4 Team Sheets . MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
What's the worst any Big East team has finished in RPI or NET? DePaul approaching 300 is despicable
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Hoping we knock SH down to comfortably Q2 Saturday.
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What's the worst any Big East team has finished in RPI or NET? DePaul approaching 300 is despicable
(https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/5csAAOSwUUNk1chl/s-l800.jpg)
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 4 , 2024
New Old
9 9 UConn
10 10 Marquette
13 13 Creighton
29 30 Villanova
45 46 St. John's
57 59 Xavier
61 62 Providence
62 63 Butler
79 77 Seton Hall
208 210 Georgetown
281 282 DePaul
January 5 Team Sheets . MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Hoping we knock SH down to comfortably Q2 Saturday.
Or beat them by 1 and they move up to Q1!
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Did some research using Kenpom's data... this DePaul team is indeed the worst-ranked computer team in the history of the Big East back to 1999, only rivaling 2001 Virginia Tech and Ewing's Georgetown swan song last year.
Even worse than their own epic stretch of futility from 2009-2011 when they won a combined *TWO* conference games over a span of three seasons.
They need another complete overhaul. Stubbs so very clearly ain't it (as if the mic'd up huddles on FS1 weren't evidence enough). They are embarrassing the conference even worse than usual. At least Georgetown made a huge move hiring Cooley so they have hope after the last two years. Val Ackerman needs to step in if Peevey doesn't. With the portal and NIL, major conference teams that are serious about men's hoops should be able to make a turnaround to be at the very least competitive in relatively short order. Despicable!
Season Team Rank W
2024 DP 243 ?
2023 GT 219 2
2022 GT 175 0
2021 DP 141 2
2020 DP 94 3
2019 DP 118 7
2018 DP 99 4
2017 DP 183 2
2016 SJ 211 1
2015 DP 150 6
2014 DP 183 3
2013 DP 174 2
2012 DP 150 3
2011 DP 197 1
2010 DP 170 1
2009 DP 206 0
2008 RG 183 3
2007 RG 208 3
2006 SF 171 1
2005 RG 141 2
2004 SJ 200 1
2003 VT 141 4
2002 WV 192 1
2001 VT 234 2
2000 PV 162 4
1999 BC 181 3
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De Paul is a dumpster fire, but I doubt the Big East is in anyway embarrassed by them. They're just highly irrelevant.
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De Paul is a dumpster fire, but I doubt the Big East is in anyway embarrassed by them. They're just highly irrelevant.
It'd be very interesting to be a fly on a wall during meetings. Do you think any of the other ADs take Peevy seriously on basketball stuff? I mean it'd be hard to even justify having an opinion.
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I think conference meetings are almost entirely about business.
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Not sure what some folks expect the Big East - or Val Ackerman - to do about DePaul.
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DePaul has been awful for a while and the conference has been fine. I feel confident that the conference will continue to be fine if DePaul continues to be awful. Every conference has their bottom dweller.
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Not sure what some folks expect the Big East - or Val Ackerman - to do about DePaul.
I half seriously suggested a buyout, but I think Sultan's reply was that he did not see any way that would be make $ sense. I guess as the concept of the NBE was forming, we needed even a team like DP to start with 7 before adding 3 more.
They're not going away and realistically? The rest of the BE is stuck with them. I have mixed feelings about expansion, but if that happens....DP's alleged "bball program" would be diluted as a drag on the BE.
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I think conference meetings are almost entirely about business.
Wouldn't the Chicago market potentially caring even a little bit about Big East basketball be good for business?
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Has there ever been an instance where a conference kicks a school out due to poor performance of a program? I sure can't think of one.
Any my guess is that the other 10 coaches don't mind DePaul on their schedule twice a season. Gives you a chance to play others down the roster and work on some things.
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English premier league relegation model with the A-10. The problem with that is the Big East ends up trading DePaul and Georgetown for Dayton and St. Louis
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Has there ever been an instance where a conference kicks a school out due to poor performance of a program? I sure can't think of one.
Any my guess is that the other 10 coaches don't mind DePaul on their schedule twice a season. Gives you a chance to play others down the roster and work on some things.
We did. The Big East is the only conference to kick a team out in my lifetime. The BEast kicked out Temple (football only member) in 2004. The only other example I know of is Marshall getting kicked out of the MAC for recruiting violations. Only reason i know that one it's because the plane crash happened the following season
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 5, 2024
New Old
7 9 UConn
10 10 Marquette
13 13 Creighton
29 29 Villanova
45 45 St. John's
57 57 Xavier
61 61 Providence
67 62 Butler
79 79 Seton Hall
204 208 Georgetown
281 281 DePaul
Janauary 5 Team Sheets . MU is 10
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 6, 2024
New Old
7 7 UConn
14 13 Creighton
16 10 Marquette
31 45 St. John's
32 29 Villanova
53 57 Xavier
57 61 Providence
63 67 Butler
73 79 Seton Hall
211 204 Georgetown
286 281 DePaul
January 7 Team Sheets. MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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All the panic after last night and the 1st bracketology I see while scrolling Twitter still has Marquette as the Top 3 seed.
Purdue- 1 seed
Kansas- 1 seed
UConn- 2 seed
UW-Madison- 2 seed
Creighton- 5 seed
Illinois- 5 seed
Nova- 7 seed
St. Johns- 8 seed
Providence- 10 seed
Seton Hall- 12 seed play in
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That's not Twitter, that's NKY Bracketology. General consensus is still in the 7-9 overall seed range.
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That's not Twitter, that's NKY Bracketology. General consensus is still in the 7-9 overall seed range.
If you reread carefully, I said first bracketology I saw while scrolling Twitter.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 7, 2024
New Old
7 7 UConn
14 14 Creighton
16 16 Marquette
33 31 St. John's
34 32 Villanova
52 53 Xavier
57 57 Providence
63 63 Butler
73 73 Seton Hall
213 211 Georgetown
287 286 DePaul
January 8 Team Sheets. MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings January 8, 2024
AP
4. U Conn
11. MU
22. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, Johnnies, Providence
Coaches
4. U Conn
12. MU
20. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, Johnnies , Providence , Nova
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 8, 2024
New Old
8 7 UConn
14 14 Creighton
16 16 Marquette
33 34 Villanova
34 33 St. John's
52 52 Xavier
56 57 Providence
63 63 Butler
73 73 Seton Hall
212 213 Georgetown
286 287 DePaul
January 9 Team Sheets. MU is 16
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 9, 2024
New Old
8 8 UConn
14 14 Creighton
17 16 Marquette
32 33 Villanova
35 34 St. John's
53 52 Xavier
54 56 Providence
63 63 Butler
74 73 Seton Hall
208 212 Georgetown
294 286 DePaul
January 10 Team Sheets . MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 10, 2024
New Old
8 8 UConn
15 14 Creighton
19 17 Marquette
33 32 Villanova
34 35 St. John's
48 63 Butler
54 54 Providence
60 53 Xavier
75 74 Seton Hall
204 208 Georgetown
292 294 DePaul
January 11 Team Sheets. MU is 19
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 10, 2024
New Old
8 8 UConn
15 14 Creighton
19 17 Marquette
33 32 Villanova
34 35 St. John's
48 63 Butler
54 54 Providence
60 53 Xavier
75 74 Seton Hall
204 208 Georgetown
292 294 DePaul
January 11 Team Sheets. MU is 19
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
Thank You Herman. Marquette #19 in the NET is not too bad.
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Thank You Herman. Marquette #19 in the NET is not too bad.
Considering MU was 10 5 days ago I would say it is bad.
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Considering MU was 10 5 days ago I would say it is bad.
And considering the trend it’s likely to drop further unless and until MU finds a way to compete with its new rotation.
Because NET treats all games equally regardless of when they were played, it does not reflect the trend.
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And considering the trend it’s likely to drop further unless and until MU finds a way to compete with its new rotation.
Because NET treats all games equally regardless of when they were played, it does not reflect the trend.
I mean, it kind of does. MU has played bad recently, thus they have dropped in the NET rankings.
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I mean, it kind of does. MU has played bad recently, thus they have dropped in the NET rankings.
It definitely doesn’t reflect MU losing 2 players from its 8 man rotation and the fact that the team is not playing well now as compared to November.
If I were betting I would say they are much more likely to drop further than rise significantly.
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And considering the trend it’s likely to drop further unless and until MU finds a way to compete with its new rotation.
Because NET treats all games equally regardless of when they were played, it does not reflect the trend.
LOL you don't know how it's supposed to work? Does not treat all games equally matches against competition and expectations. And other algorithms that are not even known.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 12, 2024
New Old
8 8 UConn
15 15 Creighton
21 20 Marquette
32 33 Villanova
33 34 St. John's
50 50 Butler
55 54 Providence
61 60 Xavier
76 77 Seton Hall
202 203 Georgetown
291 291 DePaul
January 13 Team Sheets . MU is 21
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as if games of January 13, 2024
New Old
9 8 UConn
14 15 Creighton
22 21 Marquette
34 33 St. John's
35 32 Villanova
43 61 Xavier
62 50 Butler
66 76 Seton Hall
69 55 Providence
197 202 Georgetown
288 291 DePaul
January 14 Team Sheets. MU is 22
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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That Butler loss continues to sting. Let’s beat the crap out of Villanova and get some mojo back!
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Big East NET rankings as if games of January 13, 2024
New Old
9 8 UConn
14 15 Creighton
22 21 Marquette
34 33 St. John's
35 32 Villanova
43 61 Xavier
62 50 Butler
66 76 Seton Hall
69 55 Providence
197 202 Georgetown
288 291 DePaul
January 14 Team Sheets. MU is 22
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
Marquette is falling fast.
But Providence has to be pretty concerned. They might be more bubbly than they ended up being last year.
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Marquette is falling fast.
But Providence has to be pretty concerned. They might be more bubbly than they ended up being last year.
I think Providence is likely done. They were a comfortable tourney team with Hopkins, but they aren't remotely the same without him. Maybe someone emerges to stem the bleeding, but based on recent returns, I'm not sure Garwey Dual or Corey Floyd are capable.
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I think Providence is likely done. They were a comfortable tourney team with Hopkins, but they aren't remotely the same without him. Maybe someone emerges to stem the bleeding, but based on recent returns, I'm not sure Garwey Dual or Corey Floyd are capable.
If it comes down to splitting hairs at the end...does the committee take an injury like Hopkins into consideration when deciding between Providence and another team?
As in..."they don't have Hopkins, let's put Florida in instead." for example.
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If it comes down to splitting hairs at the end...does the committee take an injury like Hopkins into consideration when deciding between Providence and another team?
As in..."they don't have Hopkins, let's put Florida in instead." for example.
Hopkins is probably missing too many games for the committee to take that into consideration if they even would otherwise?
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If it comes down to splitting hairs at the end...does the committee take an injury like Hopkins into consideration when deciding between Providence and another team?
As in..."they don't have Hopkins, let's put Florida in instead." for example.
If it was NCAA football’s committee Providence could win every game they played and be left out because of the Hopkins injury.
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If it comes down to splitting hairs at the end...does the committee take an injury like Hopkins into consideration when deciding between Providence and another team?
As in..."they don't have Hopkins, let's put Florida in instead." for example.
Injuries really only come in (and sporadically at that) when the player is going to return. If Providence had a 2-8 stretch while he missed 10 games, then they rattled off 7 straight and a BET final appearance, maybe they get a boost above what their resume indicates. But he's done. They would have to significantly turn it around to be in the conversation come March.
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Injuries really only come in (and sporadically at that) when the player is going to return. If Providence had a 2-8 stretch while he missed 10 games, then they rattled off 7 straight and a BET final appearance, maybe they get a boost above what their resume indicates. But he's done. They would have to significantly turn it around to be in the conversation come March.
Yes agreed if anything they'd discount numbers from before Hopkins' injury
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 14,2024
New Old
10 9 UConn
13 14 Creighton
21 22 Marquette
31 35 Villanova
34 34 St. John's
45 43 Xavier
62 62 Butler
66 66 Seton Hall
68 69 Providence
190 197 Georgetown
288 288 DePaul
December 15 Team Sheets. MU is 21
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East Poll Rankings January 15, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
17. MU
18. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, Johnnies , Nova
Coaches
1. U Conn
15. Creighton
18.MU
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, Nova , Johnnies
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 15, 2024
New Old
10 10 UConn
13 13 Creighton
18 21 Marquette
32 34 St. John's
35 31 Villanova
45 45 Xavier
61 62 Butler
66 66 Seton Hall
67 68 Providence
187 190 Georgetown
291 288 DePaul
January 16 Team Sheets. MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 16, 2024
New Old
9 10 UConn
11 13 Creighton
17 18 Marquette
34 35 Villanova
37 32 St. John's
38 45 Xavier
58 66 Seton Hall
64 67 Providence
66 61 Butler
188 187 Georgetown
291 291 DePaul
December 17 Team sheets . MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of January 17, 2024
New Old
9 9 UConn
15 11 Creighton
18 17 Marquette
33 34 Villanova
35 38 Xavier
36 37 St. John's
53 64 Providence
55 58 Seton Hall
64 66 Butler
189 188 Georgetown
309 291 DePaul
January 18 Team Sheets. MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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DePaul at 309 ….
Wow. Just wow
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 18, 2024
New Old
7 9 UConn
16 15 Creighton
18 18 Marquette
34 33 Villanova
36 35 Xavier
37 36 St. John's
53 53 Providence
54 55 Seton Hall
64 64 Butler
189 189 Georgetown
311 309 DePaul
January 19 Team Sheets. MU is 18
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 19, 2024
New Old
7 7 UConn
16 16 Creighton
17 18 Marquette
34 34 Villanova
36 37 St. John's
43 36 Xavier
53 53 Providence
54 54 Seton Hall
64 64 Butler
172 189 Georgetown
311 311 DePaul
January 20 Team Sheets . MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 20, 2024
New Old
8 7 UConn
11 16 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
38 34 Villanova
41 36 St. John's
43 43 Xavier
57 53 Providence
60 54 Seton Hall
66 64 Butler
175 172 Georgetown
309 311 DePaul
January 21 Team Sheets . MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 20, 2024
New Old
8 7 UConn
11 16 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
38 34 Villanova
41 36 St. John's
43 43 Xavier
57 53 Providence
60 54 Seton Hall
66 64 Butler
175 172 Georgetown
309 311 DePaul
January 21 Team Sheets . MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU wins at the number (at the time) 36 team in regulation and doesn’t move in the NET. Creighton wins at the (at the time) number 54 team in triple overtime and moves up 5 spots.
Lol.
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MU wins at the number (at the time) 36 team in regulation and doesn’t move in the NET. Creighton wins at the (at the time) number 54 team in triple overtime and moves up 5 spots.
Lol.
Tell me you don't know how the NET works without telling me you don't know how the NET works.
It's a bit tongue in cheek, but because we only see rankings and not ratings, that movement doesn't really tell you much. The NET's closest analogue is kenpom, see this post from December after St Thomas:
Except that's likely not true. I have no doubt our NET took a significant hit because of that result. But because you only see the rank number, it may not look that way. You have to think of it like kenpom, where the number that matters is the Adjusted Efficiency Margin, not the rank. Using 30 as a completely arbitrary cap, NET could've looked like this before and after the St. Thomas game:
1) Arizona 30.00
2) Houston 29.85
3) Purdue 29.65
4) BYU 29.20
5) Baylor 27.80
6) UConn 27.75
7) Iowa State 27.70
8) Marquette 27.50
9) Creighton 25.25
10) Tennessee 25.20
11) Alabama 25.15
12) Indiana State 24.90
So imagine the St. Thomas result was a massive hit to their rating. Marquette wins, but loses a full 2 points in the NET. You have the following next day rankings and ratings (we'll assume none of the others changed since none of them played 12/14):
1) Arizona 30.00
2) Houston 29.85
3) Purdue 29.65
4) BYU 29.20
5) Baylor 27.80
6) UConn 27.75
7) Iowa State 27.70
8) Marquette 25.50
9) Creighton 25.25
10) Tennessee 25.20
11) Alabama 25.15
12) Indiana State 24.90
Marquette's rating changed massively, but because of the gap they had built in, their rank didn't change at all. The two aren't automatically linked. But it's very possible you could have big gaps like that. Look at some of the Pomeroy disparities between positions:
1) Houston +31.21
4) Arizona +29.55
5) BYU +25.07
8) Auburn +23.25
21) Kentucky +20.37
38) Florida +15.89
143) Longwood +1.83
205) Chattanooga -2.66
In this case, the gap between 1-Houston and 4-Arizona (1.66) is pretty similar to the gap between 5-BYU and 8-Auburn (1.82), but the one-rank gap between 4-Arizona and 5-BYU (4.48) if applied further down is a 16-rank gap between 5-BYU and 21-Kentucky (+4.70) and another 17-rank gap if applied again to 21-Kentucky and 38-Florida (4.48).
We only have a ranked picture of NET because they don't share the formula, but there are almost certainly gaps like this where the disparity between two teams might be one in rank, but the gap further down the rankings would equate to 15, 20, or more spots. Look at the 78-rank gap between Longwood and Chattanooga (4.49). That's a titanic difference in ranks for virtually the same efficiency difference as 4/5 have.
So Creighton may have moved up more rank spots, but that doesn't mean they actually moved up further. It likely just means the rating gap between 11-16 was smaller than the rating gap between 16-17. Just because it's only one spot in the ranking doesn't mean their moves weren't comparable.
Creighton moved past three teams that lost (Kansas, Baylor, Duke) and two inactive teams (Illinois, Wisconsin). Those teams were likely very tightly bunched in the rating. Marquette moved ahead of Duke, but because Dayton blasted Rhode Island on the road, they moved ahead of us. Most likely, all the teams from 11-17 are still closely bunched. Go beat DePaul by more than their average margin of defeat in Big East play (24.4) and we might easily move up to 11 ourselves.
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Tell me you don't know how the NET works without telling me you don't know how the NET works.
It's a bit tongue in cheek, but because we only see rankings and not ratings, that movement doesn't really tell you much. The NET's closest analogue is kenpom, see this post from December after St Thomas:
So Creighton may have moved up more rank spots, but that doesn't mean they actually moved up further. It likely just means the rating gap between 11-16 was smaller than the rating gap between 16-17. Just because it's only one spot in the ranking doesn't mean their moves weren't comparable.
Creighton moved past three teams that lost (Kansas, Baylor, Duke) and two inactive teams (Illinois, Wisconsin). Those teams were likely very tightly bunched in the rating. Marquette moved ahead of Duke, but because Dayton blasted Rhode Island on the road, they moved ahead of us. Most likely, all the teams from 11-17 are still closely bunched. Go beat DePaul by more than their average margin of defeat in Big East play (24.4) and we might easily move up to 11 ourselves.
That’s the part of NET I’m not crazy about, the margin of victory playing the factors that it does. One thing Creighton is really good at is blowing out the teams they should which helps their ranking.
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That’s the part of NET I’m not crazy about, the margin of victory playing the factors that it does. One thing Creighton is really good at is blowing out the teams they should which helps their ranking.
The main thing to remember about the NET is it's a sorting tool, not a metric that really impacts seeding or selection. People overstate its importance.
Ultimately, NET is telling you how good on average a team is on a give night. So yes, the blowouts help because that's one end of the spectrum, but over the course of the season it will balance against the close results in conference play. And for Marquette, the NET of teams like Kansas, Illinois, Purdue, and Butler are more important than our own NET is because that's where the quality of your wins and losses is judged.
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The main thing to remember about the NET is it's a sorting tool, not a metric that really impacts seeding or selection. People overstate its importance.
Ultimately, NET is telling you how good on average a team is on a give night. So yes, the blowouts help because that's one end of the spectrum, but over the course of the season it will balance against the close results in conference play. And for Marquette, the NET of teams like Kansas, Illinois, Purdue, and Butler are more important than our own NET is because that's where the quality of your wins and losses is judged.
I agree with you - it’s nothing worth getting too worked up about during the season. Almost like in-season bracketology projections.
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I agree with you - it’s nothing worth getting too worked up about during the season. Almost like in-season bracketology projections.
Yup. This time of year, there's so much that will change that projections have little meaning. Late February, early March is when they first start to be close to accurate. Right now, the main point of brackets is bracketologists gaining familiarity with the field and practice.
I'm actually working on a new S-Curve right now, should have it out by tomorrow morning, but while I'll have Marquette placed in a region with a path ahead of them, it's not likely to look close to what we'll see on Selection Sunday.
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brew, as of right now, how many Q1 wins and losses to we have? And if you wouldn't mind breaking them down, I (and I'm sure others) would be interested in seeing how each of our Ws and Ls is currently classified. If you don't have the time or interest, I fully understand.
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brew, as of right now, how many Q1 wins and losses to we have? And if you wouldn't mind breaking them down, I (and I'm sure others) would be interested in seeing how each of our Ws and Ls is currently classified. If you don't have the time or interest, I fully understand.
Big East NET rankings as of games of January 20, 2024
New Old
8 7 UConn
11 16 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
38 34 Villanova
41 36 St. John's
43 43 Xavier
57 53 Providence
60 54 Seton Hall
66 64 Butler
175 172 Georgetown
309 311 DePaul
January 21 Team Sheets . MU is 17
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
Click on Link at bottom. Has all teams resumes Q1 etc Go to 17 for MU
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brew, as of right now, how many Q1 wins and losses to we have? And if you wouldn't mind breaking them down, I (and I'm sure others) would be interested in seeing how each of our Ws and Ls is currently classified. If you don't have the time or interest, I fully understand.
We are 4-4 in Q1 and 2-1 in Q2
Really need Butler to stay Q2. Big thing with our resume is we have no Q3/4 losses and also we didnt get fat on a lot of those games. We have only 7 total Q3/4 games so far(trash can Depaul hurts that) which I believe has to be among the best
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brew, as of right now, how many Q1 wins and losses to we have? And if you wouldn't mind breaking them down, I (and I'm sure others) would be interested in seeing how each of our Ws and Ls is currently classified. If you don't have the time or interest, I fully understand.
Sure...
Quadrant 1 (4-4)
H: 1-30 / N: 1-50 / A: 1-75
W: 11-Creighton (H), 12-Illinois (A), 14-Kansas (N), 41-St. John's (A)
L: 2-Purdue (N), 13-Wisconsin (A), 57-Providence (A), 60-Seton Hall (A)
Quadrant 2 (2-1)
H: 31-75 / N: 51-100 / A: 76-135
W: 38-Villanova (H), 59-Texas (H)
L: 66-Butler (H)
They are further subdivided, so we are 3-2 in Q1A and 1-2 in Q1B.
For context, only 4 programs have more Q1 wins than we do: Purdue (7), Connecticut (6), Arizona (5), and Wisconsin (5). Purdue and Arizona are the only two programs with more Q1A wins than we have. That's the reason I expect us to still be a solid 3-seed when I update (working on the S-Curve now). Our quality wins are about as good as they come right now.
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Sure...
Quadrant 1 (4-4)
H: 1-30 / N: 1-50 / A: 1-75
W: 11-Creighton (H), 12-Illinois (A), 14-Kansas (N), 41-St. John's (A)
L: 2-Purdue (N), 13-Wisconsin (A), 57-Providence (A), 60-Seton Hall (A)
Quadrant 2 (2-1)
H: 31-75 / N: 51-100 / A: 76-135
W: 38-Villanova (H), 59-Texas (H)
L: 66-Butler (H)
They are further subdivided, so we are 3-2 in Q1A and 1-2 in Q1B.
For context, only 4 programs have more Q1 wins than we do: Purdue (7), Connecticut (6), Arizona (5), and Wisconsin (5). Purdue and Arizona are the only two programs with more Q1A wins than we have. That's the reason I expect us to still be a solid 3-seed when I update (working on the S-Curve now). Our quality wins are about as good as they come right now.
Thanks, sir. You da man.
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Thanks Brew. We are in much better shape than I thought. Appreciate the very easy to understand format.
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Thanks Brew. We are in much better shape than I thought. Appreciate the very easy to understand format.
The strong November is gonna hold up well all season.
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The strong November is gonna hold up well all season.
Sean Jones game winner vs UCLA was one of the most important shots of the season.
The ensuing win against Kansas was probably worth a seed line or two.
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Sean Jones game winner vs UCLA was one of the most important shots of the season.
The ensuing win against Kansas was probably worth a seed line or two.
I stated that within a week of that clutch J.
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I stated that within a week of that clutch J.
And that importance continues to grow.
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Type “2024 NET Ranking and Quad Wins” and click on Marquette or any other team.
It’s a great breakdown of whom we’ve played and their respective quadrant. Then scroll down and see where your teams’ future scheduled teams fall in the Quadrants as of today.
Sorry if this has been posted before. Just a very easy-to-read tool.
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Much appreciated, GFAW.
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Thanks Brew. We are in much better shape than I thought. Appreciate the very easy to understand format.
I will still have us on the 3-line in the morning (spoiler) but I remember last year getting some grief over keeping Marquette as a 3 when we ended up with a 2-seed on Selection Sunday. In a group chat with other bracketologists today, I saw some others bumping Marquette back up to the 2-line and asked them why they had to make me look bad to my people.
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Honored to be one of "brew's people."
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Marquette’s NET is #17 Today
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I will still have us on the 3-line in the morning (spoiler) but I remember last year getting some grief over keeping Marquette as a 3 when we ended up with a 2-seed on Selection Sunday. In a group chat with other bracketologists today, I saw some others bumping Marquette back up to the 2-line and asked them why they had to make me look bad to my people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nhcIXgcnWk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nhcIXgcnWk)
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Type “2024 NET Ranking and Quad Wins” and click on Marquette or any other team.
It’s a great breakdown of whom we’ve played and their respective quadrant. Then scroll down and see where your teams’ future scheduled teams fall in the Quadrants as of today.
Sorry if this has been posted before. Just a very easy-to-read tool.
To add to that, the Warren Nolan site has an “NET Nitty Gritty” chart that shows various information for all teams. That makes it very easy to see at a glance any team’s information and compare it to others.
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-nitty
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I will still have us on the 3-line in the morning (spoiler) but I remember last year getting some grief over keeping Marquette as a 3 when we ended up with a 2-seed on Selection Sunday. In a group chat with other bracketologists today, I saw some others bumping Marquette back up to the 2-line and asked them why they had to make me look bad to my people.
It’s important to remember that, while people focus on the seed LINE the bracket is built off a seed LIST, which ranks all teams in the field from 1 to 68.
When it came down to Selection Sunday last year after the conference tournaments, the consensus among bracketologists seemed to be that Marquette and Baylor were the contenders for spots 8 and 9 on the seed list. That’s the last 2 seed and first 3 seed. The Selection Committee placed MU at number 8.
So, if you had MU as number 9 and Baylor 8 you didn’t look bad. You just didn’t look like a shameless homer. I was following a mock selection being conducted by some bracketologists (including Bracket Guy Dave, who is one I follow) and they were divided on the Baylor/Marquette placement.
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https://bracketville.wordpress.com/seed-list/
This is one of my favorite sites for following bracketology.
Dave updates his seed lists and brackets every few days, and his updated seed list today has Wisconsin at 8 and Marquette at 9, so again right on the edge of the 2 and 3 seed.
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I usually keep these to their own thread, but I went deep on why the NET rankings aren't what most fans think they are and why their flaws don't actually matter because the rankings aren't used the way people think they are:
Forget About NET (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2024/01/bracketology-forget-about-net.html)
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 21, 2024
New Old
9 8 UConn
12 11 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
38 38 Villanova
41 41 St. John's
43 43 Xavier
58 57 Providence
60 60 Seton Hall
66 66 Butler
176 175 Georgetown
310 309 DePaul
January 22 Team Sheets :
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 17:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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I usually keep these to their own thread, but I went deep on why the NET rankings aren't what most fans think they are and why their flaws don't actually matter because the rankings aren't used the way people think they are:
Forget About NET (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2024/01/bracketology-forget-about-net.html)
Very good explanation. Marquette is blessed to have one of the top analytics minds around. Your MU-centric work stands on its own national merits, but I’m grateful that your examples always include Marquette. It keeps MU always at the forefront of discussions on NCAA metrics.
Also, many of your team examples have subtle Marquette lore references, like your using Wardle-coached Bradley to illustrate how a 3 point efficiency metric jump further down the NET corresponds to a much higher placeholder move in the overall NET.
Have you ever been approached by a college for an analytics-related team staff position? What about a teaching position either in business statistics or mathematics? Just curious.
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I know my limitations and while I'm decent with advanced stats and understanding it, people like Andrei Greska (Paint Touches) and Rob Lowe (Cracked Sidewalks) would be better suited for that. I'm more of a statistician hobbyist, those guys are the professionals. 8-)
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I will still have us on the 3-line in the morning (spoiler) but I remember last year getting some grief over keeping Marquette as a 3 when we ended up with a 2-seed on Selection Sunday. In a group chat with other bracketologists today, I saw some others bumping Marquette back up to the 2-line and asked them why they had to make me look bad to my people.
"Who leads the nation in wins against at-large teams?
Marquette (6)
Purdue, UConn and Arizona each have 5"
https://twitter.com/Brad_Wachtel/status/1749433099799200090?t=92-UAV-p4xkV0Ucc4OfOcQ&s=19
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"Who leads the nation in wins against at-large teams?
Marquette (6)
Purdue, UConn and Arizona each have 5"
https://twitter.com/Brad_Wachtel/status/1749433099799200090?t=92-UAV-p4xkV0Ucc4OfOcQ&s=19
I guess this was assumed but that’s just the non-con only.
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I usually keep these to their own thread, but I went deep on why the NET rankings aren't what most fans think they are and why their flaws don't actually matter because the rankings aren't used the way people think they are:
Forget About NET (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2024/01/bracketology-forget-about-net.html)
Thanks Brew! Good stuff.
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Forget About NET (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2024/01/bracketology-forget-about-net.html)
With that title, I think most people would assume the article is about MU's recent 3pt shots :P
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Big East Poll Rankings January 22, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
14. MU
17. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
Coaches
1. U Conn
15. MU
16. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
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Big East NET rankings as of Games if January 22, 2024
New Old
8 9 UConn
12 12 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
37 38 Villanova
41 41 St. John's
43 43 Xavier
57 58 Providence
60 60 Seton Hall
66 66 Butler
176 176 Georgetown
309 310 DePaul
January 23 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 17:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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To really move the needle I think we have to sweep thru up to UCONN. I think we can do it!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 23, 2024
New Old
8 8 UConn
12 12 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
36 37 Villanova
41 41 St. John's
42 43 Xavier
60 57 Providence
61 66 Butler
62 60 Seton Hall
190 176 Georgetown
309 309 DePaul
January 24 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 17:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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To really move the needle I think we have to sweep thru up to UCONN. I think we can do it!
And the Creighton road game, too. 2-1 in those 3 games would move the needle a bit.
3-0 would move the needle a ton!
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And the Creighton road game, too. 2-1 in those 3 games would move the needle a bit.
3-0 would move the needle a ton!
3-0 and we're in contention for the top line, depending on the other results.
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3-0 and we're in contention for the top line, depending on the other results.
3-0 isn't happening. I am not sure 2-1 will happen.
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3-0 isn't happening. I am not sure 2-1 will happen.
soft.
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3-0 isn't happening. I am not sure 2-1 will happen.
COLE
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And the Creighton road game, too. 2-1 in those 3 games would move the needle a bit.
3-0 would move the needle a ton!
Maybe I'm missing something....when I said " win thru up to UCONN" I was thinking winning 6 games from now up to UCONN.....with at Villanova the real tough one.
@.DP
v.SH
@.VN
@.GT
v.SJ
@.BT
...
then @UC
When you say "3" games you mean the 2 UConns and 1 @Creighton? if so I would hope 2-1
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Maybe I'm missing something....when I said " win thru up to UCONN" I was thinking winning 6 games from now up to UCONN.....with at Villanova the real tough one.
@.DP
v.SH
@.VN
@.GT
v.SJ
@.BT
...
then @UC
When you say "3" games you mean the 2 UConns and 1 @Creighton? if so I would hope 2-1
Yes, that's what I meant.
I misread. I thought you said "sweep UConn."
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Big East NET ranking as of games of January 24, 2024
New Old
9 8 UConn
12 12 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
36 41 St. John's
40 36 Villanova
41 42 Xavier
49 60 Providence
60 61 Butler
68 62 Seton Hall
194 190 Georgetown
303 309 DePaul
January 25 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 17:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 25, 2024
New Old
9 9 UConn
11 12 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
36 36 St. John's
40 40 Villanova
41 41 Xavier
53 49 Providence
60 60 Butler
70 68 Seton Hall
193 194 Georgetown
304 303 Depaul
January 26 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 17:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East Net rankings as of games of January 26,2024
New Old
9 9 UConn
12 11 Creighton
17 17 Marquette
36 36 St. John's
40 40 Villanova
41 41 Xavier
53 53 Providence
60 60 Butler
70 70 Seton Hall
194 193 Georgetown
304 304 DePaul
January 27 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 17:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 27, 2024
New Old
8 9 UConn
12 12 Creighton
15 17 Marquette
36 36 St. John's
40 41 Xavier
43 40 Villanova
53 53 Providence
54 60 Butler
75 70 Seton Hall
182 194 Georgetown
301 304 DePaul
January 28 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 15
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 28, 2024
New Old
5 8 UConn
13 12 Creighton
16 15 Marquette
35 36 St. John's
43 43 Villanova
51 53 Providence
52 54 Butler
53 40 Xavier
74 75 Seton Hall
183 182 Georgetown
301 301 DePaul
January 29 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 16:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 28, 2024
New Old
5 8 UConn
13 12 Creighton
16 15 Marquette
35 36 St. John's
43 43 Villanova
51 53 Providence
52 54 Butler
53 40 Xavier
74 75 Seton Hall
183 182 Georgetown
301 301 DePaul
January 29 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 16:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
Moved up one spot in a week despite all the loses of teams ahead of MU.
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Failing to cover against a sub 300 NET team will do that. I would also imagine that the gaps between teams around us is shrinking despite us only moving up one. Last week we were 17 and Kansas was 16. They're up to 12 despite a 1-1 week. Makes me think that 2-0 with 2 covers could see us jump multiple spots. Teams ahead of us failing to cover would certainly help too.
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Failing to cover against a sub 300 NET team will do that. I would also imagine that the gaps between teams around us is shrinking despite us only moving up one. Last week we were 17 and Kansas was 16. They're up to 12 despite a 1-1 week. Makes me think that 2-0 with 2 covers could see us jump multiple spots. Teams ahead of us failing to cover would certainly help too.
Curious - does the net take cover into the equation?
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Curious - does the net take cover into the equation?
NET takes offensive and defensive efficiency into account.
Which is basically where spreads reached by Vegas.
So routinely covering spreads is usually a good sign for your NET
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NET takes offensive and defensive efficiency into account.
Which is basically where spreads reached by Vegas.
So routinely covering spreads is usually a good sign for your NET
Good to know, thanks!
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Curious - does the net take cover into the equation?
Yes and no. PG hit the nail on the head and is correct, but I could have explained it better.
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Is having the Hall stay in top 75 important? Is it better to have a Q1 loss or a Q2 loss? Someone who is not looking to closely might look and feel that 4-3 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q2 "looks" better than 4-4 and 3-1?
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Is having the Hall stay in top 75 important? Is it better to have a Q1 loss or a Q2 loss? Someone who is not looking to closely might look and feel that 4-3 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q2 "looks" better than 4-4 and 3-1?
We def want them in the top 75.
That also makes Saturdays game a Q2 win rather than Q3
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Def want SH in the top 75. Also want to keep PC and BU there, seems likely now, but they were close to dropping earlier in the season, worth keeping an eye one IMO. Less significant but still worth monitoring are UCLA and ND. After their 15 point road win, UCLA jumped like 15 spots, still a ways to go to get up to Q2 but not impossible. At one point ND was one spot away from jumping into Q3. 2 straight losses has drop them about 10 spots, getting them top 160 could help (probably minimally) too.
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Big East Poll Rankings January 29, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
9. MU
13. Creighton
Coaches
1. U Conn
10. MU
13 . Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
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Coaches hate MU
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 29, 2024
New Old
5 5 UConn
12 13 Creighton
16 16 Marquette
35 35 St. John's
43 43 Villanova
51 51 Providence
53 52 Butler
54 53 Xavier
74 74 Seton Hall
183 183 Georgetown
300 301 DePaul
January 30 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 16:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET ranking as of games of January 30,2024
New Old
4 5 UConn
14 16 Marquette
15 12 Creighton
35 35 St. John's
49 43 Villanova
51 51 Providence
52 54 Xavier
54 53 Butler
64 74 Seton Hall
181 183 Georgetown
311 300 DePaul
January 31 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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So mad at Marquette for scheduling two games against a 300+ NET team!
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Damn wasn't rider supposed to win their conference?
Looks like Texas could get back up to Q1 which would be nice.
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Damn wasn't rider supposed to win their conference?
Looks like Texas could get back up to Q1 which would be nice.
They were: https://maacsports.com/news/2023/10/4/rider-picked-as-favorites-in-mens-basketball-preseason-coaches-poll-mervin-james-named-preseason-player-of-the-year.aspx
NIU was also picked in the top-half of the MAC, but since beating DePaul to get to 5-1 (only loss at the time to Marquette) they are 0-12 in D1 games. I thought they both had Q3 upside, but even Southern is closer to that than they are now.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of January 31, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
14 14 Marquette
15 15 Creighton
38 35 St. John's
48 52 Xavier
51 49 Villanova
53 51 Providence
54 54 Butler
65 64 Seton Hall
181 181 Georgetown
310 311 DePaul
February 1 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 1, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
14 14 Marquette
15 15 Creighton
38 38 St. John's
48 48 Xavier
51 51 Villanova
54 53 Providence
56 54 Butler
66 65 Seton Hall
184 181 Georgetown
312 310 DePaul
February 2 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Rankings no matta
Seeds MATTA!
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 2, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
14 14 Marquette
17 15 Creighton
38 38 St. John's
45 56 Butler
48 48 Xavier
53 51 Villanova
55 54 Providence
66 66 Seton Hall
183 184 Georgetown
312 312 DePaul
February 3 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Marquette’s NET Ranking is # 12 Today
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 3, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
12 14 Marquette
16 17 Creighton
43 38 St. John's
47 48 Xavier
48 45 Butler
51 53 Villanova
53 55 Providence
66 66 Seton Hall
193 183 Georgetown
315 312 DePaul
February 4 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 12:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Marquette is back in Top 10 in National Championship Odds on FS1 Ticker coming in at #10
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Shame Texas couldnt seal the deal in the Houston game earlier this week, theyd be a Q1 win.
Up to 32 in the NET so still close to being one. Need them to beat ISU on Tuesday.
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Couple of borderline teams to watch. Texas, 2 spots away from being Q1. Creighton, 1 spot away from being Q1A. St. Johns, 3 spots from being Q1A.
UCLA has been rapidly climbing towards Q2 status as well
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Couple of borderline teams to watch. Texas, 2 spots away from being Q1. Creighton, 1 spot away from being Q1A. St. Johns, 3 spots from being Q1A.
UCLA has been rapidly climbing towards Q2 status as well
Thats one that would be big getting that into Q2. Hopefully they can keep beating up on trash Pac 12 teams. Shame they blew the Zona game
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Our Kenpom Adjusted O is on the move this week. Up from mid 30s to mid 20s in a week. D went from 14 to 11 too!
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Our Kenpom Adjusted O is on the move this week. Up from mid 30s to mid 20s in a week. D went from 14 to 11 too!
That’s what happens when you trick the computers by beating a brutal team by 34 instead of 15.
See BYUs schedule and results.
NET 7, KenPom 9.
3-5 in Q1 and then this
W 110-63 Home (344) Houston Christian
W 105-48 Home (291) Southeastern La.
W 93-50 Home (343) Morgan St.
W 85-56 Neutral (222) Fresno St.
W 96-55 Home (184) Evansville
W 90-74 Home (216) Denver
W 86-54 Home (238) Georgia St.
W 101-59 Home (313) Bellarmine
They’ve just beat complete garbage arse squads by 30,40, or 50 and have completely jobbed the system.
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That’s what happens when you trick the computers by beating a brutal team by 34 instead of 15.
See BYUs schedule and results.
NET 7, KenPom 9.
3-5 in Q1 and then this
W 110-63 Home (344) Houston Christian
W 105-48 Home (291) Southeastern La.
W 93-50 Home (343) Morgan St.
W 85-56 Neutral (222) Fresno St.
W 96-55 Home (184) Evansville
W 90-74 Home (216) Denver
W 86-54 Home (238) Georgia St.
W 101-59 Home
They’ve just beat complete garbage arse squads by 30,40, or 50 and have completely jobbed the system.
Great point Dr.V.
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Great point Dr.V.
That’s why I’m not a fan of margin of victory being a part of NET.
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That’s why I’m not a fan of margin of victory being a part of NET.
It's not.
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It's not.
(https://media1.tenor.com/m/fVtcUsX--ZsAAAAC/correct-futurama.gif)
But in general, the bigger the margin of victory, the more efficient the win. Margin of victory is an easier concept for fans to understand.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 4, 2024
New Old
3 4 UConn
12 12 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
43 43 St. John's
45 51 Villanova
47 47 Xavier
49 48 Butler
59 53 Providence
66 66 Seton Hall
192 193 Georgetown
315 315 DePaul
February 5 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 12:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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(https://media1.tenor.com/m/fVtcUsX--ZsAAAAC/correct-futurama.gif)
But in general, the bigger the margin of victory, the more efficient the win. Margin of victory is an easier concept for fans to understand.
But there's a common misconception that margin of victory is a factor, and there was a margin of victory limited to 10 included in the original formula. Dauster & Oglesby spent about 15 minutes talking about it on their podcast last week, and pretty much everything they said was wrong, and it largely focused on the 20-point margin of victory cap, not realizing the cap was never that big and was removed years ago.
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But there's a common misconception that margin of victory is a factor, and there was a margin of victory limited to 10 included in the original formula. Dauster & Oglesby spent about 15 minutes talking about it on their podcast last week, and pretty much everything they said was wrong, and it largely focused on the 20-point margin of victory cap, not realizing the cap was never that big and was removed years ago.
I know. My comment wasn't for you, but for others
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I know. My comment wasn't for you, but for others
I get it. I just listened to that whole segment in rage as TO again and again had no clue what he was so definitively talking about.
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I get it. I just listened to that whole segment in rage as TO again and again had no clue what he was so definitively talking about.
Did you break anything? If you're gonna rage, baby, go all the way!
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But there's a common misconception that margin of victory is a factor, and there was a margin of victory limited to 10 included in the original formula. Dauster & Oglesby spent about 15 minutes talking about it on their podcast last week, and pretty much everything they said was wrong, and it largely focused on the 20-point margin of victory cap, not realizing the cap was never that big and was removed years ago.
Potatoes pohtatoes though.
My main point is that beating brutal teams by 40+ is a cheat code when it comes to jobbing the algos and enhancing your computer profile.
As you’ve said before no system is perfect, and this one is much better than the RPI, but sooner rather than later they will have to adjust to limit the efficiency value of margin of victory based on quality of opponent.
Beating a top 50 team by 20 shouldn’t hold less value that beating a team in the 300s by 45.
The committee should leave BYU out to prove a point!
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Potatoes pohtatoes though.
My main point is that beating brutal teams by 40+ is a cheat code when it comes to jobbing the algos and enhancing your computer profile.
As you’ve said before no system is perfect, and this one is much better than the RPI, but sooner rather than later they will have to adjust to limit the efficiency value of margin of victory based on quality of opponent.
Beating a top 50 team by 20 shouldn’t hold less value that beating a team in the 300s by 45.
The committee should leave BYU out to prove a point!
I mean BYU definitely deserves a tourney bid haha.
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I mean BYU definitely deserves a tourney bid haha.
They will probably go 3-7 in their last 10,
good for 19-12, 7-11.
Then they will promptly find themselves on the bubbly and steal some other teams well deserved bid because of their inflated computer numbers….
Unless the committee is onto their farce like I am! 😂
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They will probably go 3-7 in their last 10,
good for 19-12, 7-11.
Then they will promptly find themselves on the bubbly and steal some other teams well deserved bid because of their inflated computer numbers….
Unless the committee is onto their farce like I am! 😂
KenPom has adjusted his methodology to account for schedule and his data is more reflective of a current data than a pre-season data.
If BYU goes 3-7 in their next 10 games, they will fall accordingly. They’ve lost 5 games to top 40 teams and have two double-digit wins over top 30 teams.
Marquette’s offense has risen because it’s been damn efficient and hasn’t gamed the system the last 3 weeks. Making 3’s helps a lot. That offensive low point was directly because of the putrid performance against a Butler team whose defensive metrics are weak.
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BYU's computer numbers are good not just because they blew out their cupcakes, but also because they have played their Q1 games close. Single digit loss to Houston and @ Baylor, Texas Tech, and Utah do not hurt your metrics. Beating Iowa St. by 15 more than offsets the 11 point loss to Cinci (also Q1 now). The 5 seed that bracket matrix currently has them at is very fair IMO.
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BYU's computer numbers are good not just because they blew out their cupcakes, but also because they have played their Q1 games close. Single digit loss to Houston and @ Baylor, Texas Tech, and Utah do not hurt your metrics. Beating Iowa St. by 15 more than offsets the 11 point loss to Cinci (also Q1 now). The 5 seed that bracket matrix currently has them at is very fair IMO.
Ohio State got up to 9 last year in KenPom and missed the tournament. They got that high from blowing teams out and then cratered in conference. Teams eventually find the correct level
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Ohio State got up to 9 last year in KenPom and missed the tournament. They got that high from blowing teams out and then cratered in conference. Teams eventually find the correct level
^^ This.
We will see how good they are in the next few weeks but they definitely didn’t challenge themselves in the non-con.
There is also the ethical aspect of repeatedly “bludgeoning” teams as Muggs would put it.
I’m all about whoopin a team when you’re miles better than them, but it seems to me that Mark Pope is making a habit of it far too often.
I think his motto is “I’m not a Saint, I’m a Pope”
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It's important to look at all metrics.
Look at BYU's team sheet. Results based metrics: SOR 25 and KPI 29. Those numbers show BYU is tournament worthy but they also show their other metrics (NET 7, Kenpom 9, BPI 14) are inflated.
That puts BYU around a 5/6 seed as of today. Not a total fraud, but definitely not a top 15 team like their predictive metrics indicate.
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Couple of borderline teams to watch. Texas, 2 spots away from being Q1. Creighton, 1 spot away from being Q1A. St. Johns, 3 spots from being Q1A.
UCLA has been rapidly climbing towards Q2 status as well
Texas now 1 spot away from jumping up to Q1.
Butler loss now uo Q2A
Villaova jumped a spots to 45. 5 away from the road win being bumped to Q1A (with St John's being one of the five above them). Would love to get both of them ovee 40 if possible.
Not sure how much more valuable a Q3 win is over a Q4, but Notre Dame is only a few spots away from jumping up to Q3. Georgetown was close until we removed their souls on Saturday
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Texas now 1 spot away from jumping up to Q1.
Butler loss now uo Q2A
Villaova jumped a spots to 45. 5 away from the road win being bumped to Q1A (with St John's being one of the five above them). Would love to get both of them ovee 40 if possible.
Not sure how much more valuable a Q3 win is over a Q4, but Notre Dame is only a few spots away from jumping up to Q3. Georgetown was close until we removed their souls on Saturday
Dumb question. how do these quad "sub-catagories" work. I keeping seeing Q1A or Q2A
what is this?
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Dumb question. how do these quad "sub-catagories" work. I keeping seeing Q1A or Q2A
what is this?
I believe that's the top half of a quadrant. No major use other than it's probably a tiebreaker if teams are equal, but one team's wins are in the higher tier of Q1 versus lower Q1.
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I believe that's the top half of a quadrant. No major use other than it's probably a tiebreaker if teams are equal, but one team's wins are in the higher tier of Q1 versus lower Q1.
Is it real thing, or just something we made up here on scoop?
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Dumb question. how do these quad "sub-catagories" work. I keeping seeing Q1A or Q2A
what is this?
It just further parses the categories down so an away game at a NET10 team isn't in the same group as an away game at a NET70 team.
Warren Nolan does a good visualization.
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus (https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus)
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Is it real thing, or just something we made up here on scoop?
It's a real thing on the team sheets, but if it helps I was the first person to notice and amplify it nationally when the NCAA added the sub-quadrants.
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Is it real thing, or just something we made up here on scoop?
A real thing. Its part of the selection committees team sheets and helps break down the quality of Q1 and Q2 wins. It definitely comes into play for seeding.
Here are the breakdowns
Q1A: Home 1-15, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40
Q1B: Home 16-30, Neutral 26-50, Away 41-75
Q2A: Home 31-55, Neutral 51-75, Away 76-100
Q2b: Home 56-75, Neutral 76-100, Away 101-135
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Big East Poll Rankings February 5, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
7. MU
19. Creighton
Coaches
1. U Conn
7. MU
18. Creighton
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This is random but anyone have any idea why MU would post this. Like hey let’s make our students look clueless.
https://x.com/marquetteu/status/1754513212563685472?s=46
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This is random but anyone have any idea why MU would post this. Like hey let’s make our students look clueless.
https://x.com/marquetteu/status/1754513212563685472?s=46
Wrong thread for this but yeah agree this was a stupid decision. It might've worked if they consistently used obscure or way outdated logos but this makes us look stupid.
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Wrong thread for this but yeah agree this was a stupid decision. It might've worked if they consistently used obscure or way outdated logos but this makes us look stupid.
Oh whoops my bad.
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This is random but anyone have any idea why MU would post this. Like hey let’s make our students look clueless.
https://x.com/marquetteu/status/1754513212563685472?s=46
It's a play on a popular video that the Tennessee Titans put out earlier this year. A lot of teams have tried to emulate it but none are as good as the original.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=773162457801649
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This is random but anyone have any idea why MU would post this. Like hey let’s make our students look clueless.
https://x.com/marquetteu/status/1754513212563685472?s=46
Marquette Marketing Department sucks! Proof positive
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Says it’s been deleted
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 5, 2024
New Old
4 3 UConn
11 12 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
43 43 St. John's
45 45 Villanova
47 47 Xavier
48 49 Butler
58 59 Providence
65 66 Seton Hall
193 192 Georgetown
314 315 DePaul
February 6 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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It's important to look at all metrics.
Look at BYU's team sheet. Results based metrics: SOR 25 and KPI 29. Those numbers show BYU is tournament worthy but they also show their other metrics (NET 7, Kenpom 9, BPI 14) are inflated.
That puts BYU around a 5/6 seed as of today. Not a total fraud, but definitely not a top 15 team like their predictive metrics indicate.
Lost by 16 at Oklahoma.
Have Jerome Tang and Co coming to town after a big win over Kansas, uh oh.
Fell behind Marquette in KenPom which is what really matters.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 6,2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
17 16 Creighton
43 43 St. John's
45 45 Villanova
48 47 Xavier
50 48 Butler
58 58 Providence
65 65 Seton Hall
194 193 Georgetown
314 314 DePaul
February 7 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 7, 2024
New Old
3 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
19 17 Creighton
42 43 St. John's
47 45 Villanova
50 48 Xavier
51 50 Butler
56 58 Providence
66 65 Seton Hall
191 194 Georgetown
312 314 DePaul
February 8 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 7, 2024
New Old
3 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
19 17 Creighton
42 43 St. John's
47 45 Villanova
50 48 Xavier
51 50 Butler
56 58 Providence
66 65 Seton Hall
191 194 Georgetown
312 314 DePaul
February 8 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
You’ve been a day off the last couple days
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You’ve been a day off the last couple days
I think he updates in the morning before the new numbers come out so he's always a day behind
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I think he updates in the morning before the new numbers come out so he's always a day behind
Well, Herman. Wait 30 more minutes before posting.
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Well, Herman. Wait 30 more minutes before posting.
Cut him some slack, he's been dead for years. It ain't easy to post from the great beyond.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 8, 2024
New Old
4 3 UConn
11 11 Marquette
19 19 Creighton
42 42 St. John's
47 47 Villanova
50 50 Xavier
51 51 Butler
56 56 Providence
67 66 Seton Hall
189 191 Georgetown
312 312 DePaul
February 9 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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You’ve been a day off the last couple days
I think he updates in the morning before the new numbers come out so he's always a day behind
Was traveling last couple days. Everything caught up.
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Yudaman. Love the updates/links. I go down the rabbit hole with regularity when I open the team sheets. Numbers nerd.
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Cut him some slack, he's been dead for years. It ain't easy to post from the great beyond.
Correct
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 9, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
19 19 Creighton
43 42 St. John's
48 47 Villanova
50 50 Xavier
51 51 Butler
56 56 Providence
67 67 Seton Hall
189 189 Georgetown
312 312 DePaul
February 10 Team Sheets :
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 10, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
16 19 Creighton
45 43 St. John's
49 48 Villanova
50 51 Butler
52 50 Xavier
57 56 Providence
67 67 Seton Hall
199 189 Georgetown
316 312 DePaul
February 11 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Texas back up to 33. Need a little consistency for them to get to Q1
UCLA up 5 more spots to 112. They climb for a Q2 push continues
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Texas back up to 33. Need a little consistency for them to get to Q1
UCLA up 5 more spots to 112. They climb for a Q2 push continues
Thanks, opponent Quads. That might be worth a look. For everyone's edification...this from NCAA. Tho I know some on scoop have it memorized :)
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
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Notre Dame moved into Q3 yesterday. Not huge deal, but knowing we still will add a Q4 game (DePaul at home) it's nice to get that one into Q3.
Creighton also back up to #16, very close to Q1A. St. John's (#45) and Villanova (#49) aren't far off Q1A. Like to see them move in that direction.
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Thanks, opponent Quads. That might be worth a look. For everyone's edification...this from NCAA. Tho I know some on scoop have it memorized :)
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The NCAA even creates a visualization for you if you're into that sorta thing :)
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/35668/teams/560742/team_sheet
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 11, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
16 16 Creighton
42 49 Villanova
46 45 St. John's
50 50 Butler
52 52 Xavier
57 57 Providence
76 67 Seton Hall
199 199 Georgetown
316 316 DePaul
February 12 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East Poll Rankings February 12, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
4. MU
17. Creighton
Coaches
1. U Conn
4. MU
16. Creighton
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 12, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
15 16 Creighton
41 42 Villanova
46 46 St. John's
50 50 Butler
52 52 Xavier
58 57 Providence
76 76 Seton Hall
198 199 Georgetown
315 316 DePaul
February 13th Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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A number of games to watch tonight...
- Georgetown at Creighton: The Jays moved up to 15, which makes them Q1A. Hope for a 25+ point win to stay there.
- St John's at Providence: If the Johnnies can do to the Friars what they did to Villanova on the road, they could move from 46 to the top-40 & Q1A range.
- Texas A&M at Vanderbilt: The Aggies are 37, a close win or outright loss could drop them to 41, making Villanova away a Q1A win.
- Iowa State at Cincinnati: The Bearcats are 35, a big ISU win could drop them past Villanova.
- Last, in the multiple unlikely scenarios, if LSU beats Florida, Baylor blows out Oklahoma, Pitt beats Virginia, and Kentucky loses to Ole Miss, it's possible Texas could move into the top-30 and Q1 status without playing a game.
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Apparently the SEC knows how to game the system. All 3 SEC teams in the Top 10 NET have losing Q1 records
5 5 Alabama SEC 17-7 4-3 2-3 11-1 3-6 5-1 5-0 4-0
6 6 Tennessee SEC 17-6 4-3 2-2 11-1 4-5 5-1 4-0 4-0
7 7 Auburn SEC 19-5 3-4 4-1 12-0 2-4 6-1 6-0 5-0
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Jays stay at 15. Texas gets oh so close, getting to 31. Nova jumps ahead of A&M back into the top-40. St John's drops to 48, but Seton Hall back to 75.
And bonus, Marquette moves ahead of UNC to 10.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 13, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
10 11 Marquette
15 15 Creighton
39 41 Villanova
48 46 St. John's
50 50 Butler
51 52 Xavier
58 58 Providence
75 76 Seton Hall
199 198 Georgetown
316 315 DePaul
February 14 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 10:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Apparently the SEC knows how to game the system. All 3 SEC teams in the Top 10 NET have losing Q1 records
5 5 Alabama SEC 17-7 4-3 2-3 11-1 3-6 5-1 5-0 4-0
6 6 Tennessee SEC 17-6 4-3 2-2 11-1 4-5 5-1 4-0 4-0
7 7 Auburn SEC 19-5 3-4 4-1 12-0 2-4 6-1 6-0 5-0
The team I'm looking at is South Carolina. Used to live in Columbia when they were the first 2 to lose to a 15 🙄.
They have 6 Q1 games left that they could all very well win. 3-2 Q1 now and possibly 9-2 with an SEC championship...that would get a 1 no doubt... possibly displacing a potential MU.
So biggest game tonight is SC @ Auburn.
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The team I'm looking at is South Carolina. Used to live in Columbia when they were the first 2 to lose to a 15 🙄.
They have 6 Q1 games left that they could all very well win. 3-2 Q1 now and possibly 9-2 with an SEC championship...that would get a 1 no doubt... possibly displacing a potential MU.
So biggest game tonight is SC @ Auburn.
Can’t wait for the top 16 reveal. Will give us so much to unpack
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FWIW, Auburn is an 11.5 favorite against SC tonight. Definitely in marquettes interest for Auburn to cover that spread
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The team I'm looking at is South Carolina. Used to live in Columbia when they were the first 2 to lose to a 15 🙄.
They have 6 Q1 games left that they could all very well win. 3-2 Q1 now and possibly 9-2 with an SEC championship...that would get a 1 no doubt... possibly displacing a potential MU.
So biggest game tonight is SC @ Auburn.
The SEC is the best conference this year with the Big 12 a close second. You look at S.Carolina, Auburn, Alabama and Tennessee. Anyone of those teams could make the final four. I think a lot of people slept on S.Carolina because they weren't ranked up until last week and they had some massive wins on their resume will remaining unranked. Its very plausible like you said that they could win out. Tonight is their toughest remaining test so in the interest of seeing we would like to see Auburn win. There non conference schedule is probably one of worst in basketball.
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T Rank has them as underdogs in 5 of their 7 remaining regular season games, with 1 of the 2 that they're favored in being by under 1 point. There's very, very little chance they win out.
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Agreed. Going by their metrics, which are abnormally bad for an SEC team that is 21-3 (44th in Kenpom), them going 1-6 down the stretch is far more probable than them going 7-0
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The SEC is the best conference this year with the Big 12 a close second. You look at S.Carolina, Auburn, Alabama and Tennessee. Anyone of those teams could make the final four. I think a lot of people slept on S.Carolina because they weren't ranked up until last week and they had some massive wins on their resume will remaining unranked. Its very plausible like you said that they could win out. Tonight is their toughest remaining test so in the interest of seeing we would like to see Auburn win. There non conference schedule is probably one of worst in basketball.
I like Tennessee, but I'm not sold on the rest of the SEC. Very skeptical of Alabama, Auburn, and SC as legit F4 contenders.
-
UCLA plays 35 Net Colorado tomorrow.
Stay hot and win that, they are really gonna be a Q2 contender
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 14, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
10 10 Marquette
16 15 Creighton
40 39 Villanova
47 48 St. John's
49 50 Butler
57 51 Xavier
58 58 Providence
67 75 Seton Hall
198 199 Georgetown
321 316 DePaul
February 15 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 10:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Notre dame up 3 more spots. Giving them a little breathing room to stay Q3
-
Clemson looked like they were going to drop below 30 last night and turn Texas into a Q1 win when the Tigers were trailing Miami 57-53 with 7 minutes left. But they went on a 24-3 run to end the game and ended up moving up instead of down.
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The team I'm looking at is South Carolina. Used to live in Columbia when they were the first 2 to lose to a 15 🙄.
They have 6 Q1 games left that they could all very well win. 3-2 Q1 now and possibly 9-2 with an SEC championship...that would get a 1 no doubt... possibly displacing a potential MU.
So biggest game tonight is SC @ Auburn.
If South Carolina is being looked at as a threat for a 1 or 2 seed, those hopes took a pretty big hit with a 40 point loss to Auburn. That game made a marginal resume look even weaker.
Some of the obvious holes;
1. Their NET was already 45 and that game dropped it to 51.
2. Their metrics, especially the predictive metrics like Pomeroy (where they are at 50) are not great.
3. They are only 3-3 in Quad 1 games and one of those wins is against Grand Canyon. The teams challenging for the top seeds generally have more Q1 wins than that. The top SEC teams are generally lower than the top teams from the other power conferences.
4.Their overall strength of schedule is 281, reflecting a very weak OOC schedule.
I suspect that their AP ranking of 11 is a lot higher than they would appear on the NCAA seed list. There isn't a lot of meat there to back up the road win over Tennessee.
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If South Carolina is being looked at as a threat for a 1 or 2 seed, those hopes took a pretty big hit with a 40 point loss to Auburn. That game made a marginal resume look even weaker.
Some of the obvious holes;
1. Their NET was already 45 and that game dropped it to 51.
2. Their metrics, especially the predictive metrics like Pomeroy (where they are at 50) are not great.
3. They are only 3-3 in Quad 1 games and one of those wins is against Grand Canyon. The teams challenging for the top seeds generally have more Q1 wins than that. The top SEC teams are generally lower than the top teams from the other power conferences.
4.Their overall strength of schedule is 281, reflecting a very weak OOC schedule.
I suspect that their AP ranking of 11 is a lot higher than they would appear on the NCAA seed list. There isn't a lot of meat there to back up the road win over Tennessee.
They were a 5 seed on Bracket Matrix yesterday. So the bracket guys know they were over-ranked.
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Friendly reminder Jon Rothstein has South Carolina ranked ahead of us on his AP ballot.
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We've litigated the SC thing already but feel free to pile on. I'm a fan and hope the go somewhere in the madness of March.
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feel free to pile on.
Ok.
Scoop is littered with piss poor takes and people being wrong. Myself included. PTM's Scoop signature is an homage to my stupidity.
But the magnitude of wrongness (40 point blowout) and speed of which you were proven wrong (mere hours) is something I don't think I've ever seen on here before.
On the flip side they could still do quite well from here on out and prove you right. I don't think they will but it could happen!
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But the magnitude of wrongness (40 point blowout) and speed of which you were proven wrong (mere hours) is something I don't think I've ever seen on here before.
In the hours and minutes before tip-off of last season's game vs. Baylor, there were plenty of Scoopers who said Marquette had absolutely no chance.
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But the magnitude of wrongness (40 point blowout) and speed of which you were proven wrong (mere hours) is something I don't think I've ever seen on here before.
This is one of the best things I've seen on 'Scoop in quite some time.
Don't sweat it, FairWeatherEagle...everyone knows "fan" is short for "fanatic." You just let the SC fan in you use your computer for a couple hours. It happens to the best of us.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 15, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
10 10 Marquette
15 16 Creighton
38 40 Villanova
46 47 St. John's
49 49 Butler
55 57 Xavier
57 58 Providence
68 67 Seton Hall
194 198 Georgetown
320 321 DePaul
February 16 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 10:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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There is a chance that Marquette's Team Sheet could take a MASSIVE boost this weekend.
Win against UConn is an obvious Q1 Win.
UCLA is at NET 106 and Texas is at NET 31. UCLA can get inside the Top 100 with a win Sunday against Utah and Texas can move up 1 spot into the Top 30. UCLA would move from Q3 to Q2 and Texas from Q2 to Q1.
There is a scenario where Marquette picks up 2 Q1 Wins and a Q2 Win this weekend.
Would be:
Q1: 8-4
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 5-0
That's a no-doubt-about-it 1 seed.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 16, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
10 10 Marquette
18 15 Creighton
34 38 Villanova
46 46 St. John's
49 49 Butler
55 55 Xavier
56 57 Providence
68 68 Seton Hall
204 194 Georgetown
320 320 DePaul
February 17 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 10:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 16, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
10 10 Marquette
18 15 Creighton
34 38 Villanova
46 46 St. John's
49 49 Butler
55 55 Xavier
56 57 Providence
68 68 Seton Hall
204 194 Georgetown
320 320 DePaul
February 17 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 10:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
Nova not too far away from becoming a Q1 home win. Not sure how likely it is they can move up another 4 spots, though.
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Nova not too far away from becoming a Q1 home win. Not sure how likely it is they can move up another 4 spots, though.
Gotta blitz a couple more teams.
Def win the Creighton home game
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 17, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
13 18 Creighton
14 10 Marquette
34 34 Villanova
45 46 St. John's
54 55 Xavier
56 49 Butler
58 56 Providence
68 68 Seton Hall
203 204 Georgetown
317 320 DePaul
February 18 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 18, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
13 13 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
35 34 Villanova
51 45 St. John's
54 54 Xavier
57 56 Butler
59 58 Providence
63 68 Seton Hall
203 203 Georgetown
317 317 DePaul
February 19 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East Poll Rankings February 19, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
7. MU
15. Creighton
Coaches
1. U Conn
8. MU
15. Creighton
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Big East Poll Rankings February 19, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
7. MU
15. Creighton
Coaches
1. U Conn
8. MU
15. Creighton
Coaches hate MU
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Coaches hate MU
Coaches are dung ! ! ! 8-)
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Coaches are dung ! ! ! 8-)
Agree
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Big East NET rankings as of games of February 19, 2020
New Old
4 4 UConn
13 13 Creighton
15 14 Marquette
35 35 Villanova
51 51 St. John's
55 54 Xavier
58 57 Butler
60 59 Providence
63 63 Seton Hall
202 203 Georgetown
317 317 DePaul
February 20 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 15:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Texas went up 12 late after the Dai Dai Ames ejection. Pretty poor end to the game for them and beat KSU by 6. Missed chance to bump up to the top 30 maybe.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 20, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
9 13 Creighton
14 15 Marquette
34 35 Villanova
49 51 St. John's
54 55 Xavier
60 60 Providence
61 58 Butler
64 63 Seton Hall
203 202 Georgetown
317 317 DePaul
February 21 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 21, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
9 9 Creighton
13 14 Marquette
33 34 Villanova
51 49 St. John's
55 60 Providence
60 54 Xavier
61 61 Butler
65 64 Seton Hall
199 203 Georgetown
318 317 DePaul
February 22 Team Sheets
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Who says playing DePaul is a net negative?!?!
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Seton Hall's NET is so crazy - two of the best wins in all of college basketball this season (@MU and @UCONN), 5-5 in Q1, one of the best "losses" (3OT @ Creighton). I guess the computers must really hate Rutgers.
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Seton Hall's NET is so crazy - two of the best wins in all of college basketball this season (@MU and @UCONN), 5-5 in Q1, one of the best "losses" (3OT @ Creighton). I guess the computers must really hate Rutgers.
The loss to USC is brutal on their resume.
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Seton Hall's NET is so crazy - two of the best wins in all of college basketball this season (@MU and @UCONN), 5-5 in Q1, one of the best "losses" (3OT @ Creighton). I guess the computers must really hate Rutgers.
I think the biggest issue is your geographic confusion
Those games vs us, UConn and Creighton you reference were all home games
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 22, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
9 9 Creighton
13 13 Marquette
34 33 Villanova
50 51 St. John's
56 55 Providence
61 60 Xavier
62 61 Butler
65 65 Seton Hall
200 199 Georgetown
319 318 DePaul
February 23 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 23, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
9 9 Creighton
13 13 Marquette
34 34 Villanova
50 50 St. John's
56 56 Providence
61 61 Xavier
62 62 Butler
65 65 Seton Hall
198 200 Georgetown
318 319 DePaul
February 24 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 24, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
10 9 Creighton
14 13 Marquette
39 34 Villanova
49 50 St. John's
55 56 Providence
59 61 Xavier
62 65 Seton Hall
63 62 Butler
198 198 Georgetown
320 318 DePaul
February 25 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 25, 2024
New Old
3 4 UConn
11 10 Creighton
12 14 Marquette
38 39 Villanova
44 49 St. John's
55 55 Providence
61 62 Seton Hall
62 63 Butler
64 59 Xavier
198 198 Georgetown
320 320 DePaul
February 26 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 12:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East Poll Rankings February 26, 2024
AP
3. U Conn
5. MU
12. Creighton
Coaches
2.U Conn
5. MU
12. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
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Marquette is 25-1 in their last 26 conference home games.
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Marquette’s NET ranking is #12 on Tuesday
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Big East NET Rankings as of February 26, 2024
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
12 12 Marquette
38 38 Villanova
44 44 St. John's
54 55 Providence
61 61 Seton Hall
62 62 Butler
64 64 Xavier
198 198 Georgetown
320 320 DePaul
February 27 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 12:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 27, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
12 12 Marquette
13 11 Creighton
34 38 Villanova
44 44 St. John's
54 54 Providence
61 61 Seton Hall
63 62 Butler
64 64 Xavier
205 198 Georgetown
318 320 DePaul
February 28 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 12:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 28, 2024
New Old
4 3 UConn
11 12 Marquette
12 13 Creighton
32 34 Villanova
40 44 St. John's
56 54 Providence
62 64 Xavier
64 61 Seton Hall
68 63 Butler
207 205 Georgetown
319 318 DePaul
February 29 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 29, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
12 12 Creighton
32 32 Villanova
40 40 St. John's
56 56 Providence
61 62 Xavier
64 64 Seton Hall
69 68 Butler
207 207 Georgetown
319 319 DePaul
March 1 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games if March 1, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 11 Marquette
12 12 Creighton
32 32 Villanova
39 40 St. John's
56 56 Providence
61 61 Xavier
64 64 Seton Hall
69 69 Butler
206 207 Georgetown
319 319 Depaul
March 2 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 11:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
-
G'Town moving up one slot overnight. Great for the conference and our NET
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Marquette’s NET is #14 today
-
Nova (26) and Texas (27) have both moved to Q1 home wins as of now.
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Villanova up to 26, Texas up to 27.
Those home wins moved to Q1, putting Marquette at 8 Q1 wins.
St. Thomas moved up to 154, putting that win back into Q3.
Notre Dame comfortably in Q3, with a NET of 125.
UCLA remains stuck in Q3 at 114 NET. Don't think they will get to Q2. The Bruins started with too deep of a hole after nonconference.
Overall, great day for Marquette's resumé.
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Those last 5 minutes killed any thin one seed hopes. Had we pulled that out, it's down to us or Tennessee, but we're pretty well locked into a 2 now.
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How many quad 1 wins does Marquette have? Is it 6 or 8? How much of a difference does that stat make?
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 2, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 12 Creighton
14 11 Marquette
26 32 Villanova
39 39 St. John's
61 61 Xavier
62 64 Seton Hall
63 56 Providence
68 69 Butler
203 206 Georgetown
321 319 DePaul
March 3 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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How many quad 1 wins does Marquette have? Is it 6 or 8? How much of a difference does that stat make?
8 now that Villanova and Texas are top 30 NET.
How much the committee values Q1 wins might vary from year to year, but it's better to have more than less.
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Houston, Purdue, UConn with 10
Marquette and Arizona with 8
Creighton, Kansas, Baylor with 7
What’s with Auburn at 1-7 in Q1?
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Houston, Purdue, UConn with 10
Marquette and Arizona with 8
Creighton, Kansas, Baylor with 7
What’s with Auburn at 1-7 in Q1?
The NET is broken.
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Texas at Baylor and home vs Oklahoma.
Nova at the Hall and home vs the Jays.
What are their chances of staying top 30?
Assuming Oso is back and no TK this week I see us going 1-1. Would love to have 9 Q1s going into the BET.
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Those last 5 minutes killed any thin one seed hopes. Had we pulled that out, it's down to us or Tennessee, but we're pretty well locked into a 2 now.
Locked into a 2 - period - or locked into a 2 at best (meaning we still could fall to 3)?
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Locked into a 2 - period - or locked into a 2 at best (meaning we still could fall to 3)?
The second one
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Texas at Baylor and home vs Oklahoma.
Nova at the Hall and home vs the Jays.
What are their chances of staying top 30?
Assuming Oso is back and no TK this week I see us going 1-1. Would love to have 9 Q1s going into the BET.
Who they play doesnt really matter for NET. It matters how they play.
This is not exact, but it general if you beat the KenPom spread your NET seems to go up. If you don't, it seems to go down.
So if Texas can lose by less than 7 to Baylor and win by more than 4 against Oklahoma their NET score should go up.
Novas remaining spreads are each 1 point so it's pretty much win and their score should go up lose and it should go down. How much they win/lose will determine the degree.
Also keep in mind that we don't see teams NET scores, just their ranks. So they could theoretically be tied with 8 other teams right now for 26th place and could be easily leapfrogged.
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The second one
Unacceptable answer. I prefer the first one.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 2, 2024
New Old
4 4 UConn
11 12 Creighton
14 11 Marquette
26 32 Villanova
39 39 St. John's
61 61 Xavier
62 64 Seton Hall
63 56 Providence
68 69 Butler
203 206 Georgetown
321 319 DePaul
March 3 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
Brew-
What’s the highest ranked NET team to ever miss the dance?
With Villanova on that cut line I wonder how much, if any, that inflated NET plays into consideration.
How about KenPom? They are 24 there.
As always, thanks for your service, the mods will mail ya a check 😂
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 3, 2024
New Old
3 4 UConn
11 11 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
26 26 Villanova
39 39 St. John's
61 61 Xavier
62 63 Providence
67 68 Butler
68 62 Seton Hall
202 203 Georgetown
321 321 DePaul
March 4 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East Poll Rankings March 4, 2024
AP
2. U Conn
8. MU
10. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
Nova
Coaches
2. U Conn
9. MU
10. Creighton
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 4, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
26 26 Villanova
38 39 St. John's
61 61 Xavier
62 62 Providence
67 67 Butler
68 68 Seton Hall
202 202 Georgetown
321 321 DePaul
March 5 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 5, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
25 26 Villanova
34 38 St. John's
61 61 Xavier
62 62 Providence
66 67 Butler
67 68 Seton Hall
203 202 Georgetown
322 321 DePaul
March 6 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Don't look now but 4 straight blow out wins has StJ within shouting distance of being a Q1 home win. Have to blow out Gtown this weekend and will need at least one in the BET to get there but between them and our remaining schedule, double digit Q1 wins is a real possibility. Hit that with only 1 Q2 loss (Butler is safer by the day of staying top 75) and we'd be a lock for a 2 seed regardless.
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Don't look now but 4 straight blow out wins has StJ within shouting distance of being a Q1 home win. Have to blow out Gtown this weekend and will need at least one in the BET to get there but between them and our remaining schedule, double digit Q1 wins is a real possibility. Hit that with only 1 Q2 loss (Butler is safer by the day of staying top 75) and we'd be a lock for a 2 seed regardless.
SJU gets to Q1 by boat racing us at the Garden.
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SJU gets to Q1 by boat racing us at the Garden.
Wouldn't be the worst scenario. I'd rather draw StJ/Nova and another guaranteed Q1 game in the QF.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 6, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
29 25 Villanova
36 34 St. John's
61 62 Providence
62 61 Xavier
63 67 Seton Hall
65 66 Butler
204 203 Georgetown
321 322 DePaul
March 7 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Nova hanging on as a Q1 by the skin of their teeth.
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Nova hanging on as a Q1 by the skin of their teeth.
A Nova home win over Creighton would be delightful.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 7, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
31 29 Villanova
37 36 St. John's
61 61 Providence
62 62 Xavier
63 63 Seton Hall
65 65 Butler
205 204 Georgetown
321 321 DePaul
March 8 Team Sheets :
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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So we unequivocally want 'Nova over Creighton Saturday right?
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So we unequivocally want 'Nova over Creighton Saturday right?
Unequivocally.
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If we lose Sat and Hall takes care of Depaul, who wins the tiebreaker between Seton Hall and Marquette?
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If we lose Sat and Hall takes care of Depaul, who wins the tiebreaker between Seton Hall and Marquette?
I believe Seton Hall, because they have a win over UConn.
Creighton also has win over UConn, so they have the tie breaker over us.
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I believe Seton Hall, because they have a win over UConn.
Creighton also has win over UConn, so they have the tie breaker over us.
Thanks. Makes Saturday fairly important both in terms of avoiding UCONN but also not playing day games.
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If we lose Sat and Hall takes care of Depaul, who wins the tiebreaker between Seton Hall and Marquette?
Two way tie, Seton Hall. Head to head is tied, Seton Hall wins second tiebreaker since they beat UConn once and we didn't. Marquette becomes the 4 seed.
Three way tie with Creighton involved, it goes to a mini-conference (record against all tied teams). Creighton 3-1, Marquette 2-2, Seton Hall 1-3. Marquette becomes the 3 seed.
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Thanks JAM. Appreciate putting in the work I was too lazy to do.
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Let’s just take care of business tomorrow and finish either 2nd or 3rd.
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Here's the MU BET seeding what if scenarios:
Marquette wins AND Creighton loses, Marquette is the 2 seed.
Marquette and Creighton both win OR both lose, Marquette is the 3 seed.
Creighton wins AND Marquette loses AND Seton Hall loses, Marquette is the 3 seed.
Creighton wins AND Seton Hall wins AND Marquette loses, Marquette is the 4 seed.
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Here's the MU BET seeding what if scenarios:
Marquette wins AND Creighton loses, Marquette is the 2 seed.
Marquette and Creighton both win OR both lose, Marquette is the 3 seed.
Creighton wins AND Marquette loses AND Seton Hall loses, Marquette is the 3 seed.
Creighton wins AND Seton Hall wins AND Marquette loses, Marquette is the 4 seed.
Just to add - Seton Hall should easily win vs DePaul. So, it really comes down to our game at X and/or Creighton at Nova, both of which are complete toss up games. (I think both spreads may be 1.5 or closer)
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Who cares about the seed? I don’t. A two or a three is irrelevant to me. Give me a four. I don’t care who we play. The Golden Eagles will beat any other team on the court and they will advance. And if they don’t win they go home. You win and you win and then you face the biggest boys in the country. Bring it on. Oh by the way, the whole team is playing well.
I saw senior night. Tyler and Oso. That’s what pride looks like. It felt so good to see. Two guys who love to play basketball and are determined to get an education along the way. Both of them will graduate, and Oso will earn a master’s degree after four years. And I saw Oso wearing a Ben Gold tee crap last week. He is such special team mate. That’s funny.
Alright, so some of you people are feeling a little numb. And you're wondering if this team can win. I tell you what. When you walk onto a court you expect to win. You prepare along the way. You believe. It’s what the game is all about. I don’t care who we play. Go Marquette.
And when Tyler comes back (and don’t worry about that) things will get even better.
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Big East NET rankings as of games of March 8, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
14 14 Marquette
31 31 Villanova
37 37 St. John's
61 61 Providence
62 62 Xavier
63 63 Seton Hall
65 65 Butler
204 205 Georgetown
322 321 DePaul
March 9 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Sorry- I meant Oso wore a Ben Gold tee shirt.
The lowest seed to win March Madness? #8 Villanova 1985
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 9, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
13 14 Marquette
32 31 Villanova
38 37 St. John's
61 63 Seton Hall
64 61 Providence
65 62 Xavier
66 65 Butler
197 204 Georgetown
322 322 DePaul
March 10 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Texas up to 25 in the NET.
I wonder if Nova could move back up to Q1 if they beat DePaul badly enough. Of course, we play them next and could knock them right back to Q2.
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Texas up to 25 in the NET.
I wonder if Nova could move back up to Q1 if they beat DePaul badly enough. Of course, we play them next and could knock them right back to Q2.
Thats whats nice about getting nova first game
We are getting a Q1 win added to our resume regardless
And if we lose its a Q1 loss with the added Q1 win
TK aint playing unless hes in top form
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Thats whats nice about getting nova first game
We are getting a Q1 win added to our resume regardless
And if we lose its a Q1 loss with the added Q1 win
TK aint playing unless hes in top form
This is the kind of sh*t with NET/Team Sheets/Computers that drives me nuts - we can lose a game and it still might end up being a net positive to our resume.
NET is COLE.
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This is the kind of sh*t with NET/Team Sheets/Computers that drives me nuts - we can lose a game and it still might end up being a net positive to our resume.
NET is COLE.
It's not a net positive. It just mitigates the negative
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 10, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
13 13 Marquette
33 32 Villanova
39 38 St. John's
62 61 Seton Hall
64 64 Providence
65 65 Xavier
66 66 Butler
198 197 Georgetown
322 322 DePaul
March 11 Team Sheets
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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This is the kind of sh*t with NET/Team Sheets/Computers that drives me nuts - we can lose a game and it still might end up being a net positive to our resume.
NET is COLE.
NET King COLE
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Big East Poll Rankings March 11, 2024
AP
2. U Conn
8. Creighton
10. MU
Coaches
2. U Conn
6. Creighton
10. MU
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Anyone have an idea what our Strength of Schedule would be if DePaul had a net of say 200-225? That 322 is so so so so BAD! We would be all over the schedulers for putting 2 300+ teams on our schedule and they put 0 on.
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Anyone have an idea what our Strength of Schedule would be if DePaul had a net of say 200-225? That 322 is so so so so BAD! We would be all over the schedulers for putting 2 300+ teams on our schedule and they put 0 on.
This was the basis of my reply to a scooper questioning why an improved DP would be good for everyone in the BE. He was happy with them being an easy win twice per season. They're like another cupcake x 2 on the schedule. Porter Moser, C'mon down!
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This was the basis of my reply to a scooper questioning why an improved DP would be good for everyone in the BE. He was happy with them being an easy win twice per season. They're like another cupcake x 2 on the schedule. Porter Moser, C'mon down!
Listening to pods...everyone is harping on SOS...ours is 7 which is great...but still those 322 gameS are crazy bad. They still would/should be an easy win if they were in the low 200s.
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7 is enough. Celebrate what the team has accomplished.
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7 is enough. Celebrate what the team has accomplished.
I'm mourning those 2 wins over DePaul even while celebrating what the team accomplished.
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!0. MU
Not zero. Nice.
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7 is enough. Celebrate what the team has accomplished.
Eight is enough. Seven is a bonus.
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Not zero. Nice.
Correction Noted.
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 11, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
13 13 Marquette
32 33 Villanova
39 39 St. John's
62 62 Seton Hall
63 64 Providence
64 65 Xavier
65 66 Butler
198 198 Georgetown
322 322 DePaul
March 12 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Not zero. Nice.
Too bad, MU would be before 1
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 12, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
13 13 Marquette
33 32 Villanova
39 39 St. John's
62 62 Seton Hall
63 63 Providence
64 64 Xavier
65 65 Butler
199 198 Georgetown
322 322 DePaul
March 13 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Anyone have an idea what our Strength of Schedule would be if DePaul had a net of say 200-225? That 322 is so so so so BAD! We would be all over the schedulers for putting 2 300+ teams on our schedule and they put 0 on.
KenPom has MU with the 9 overall SoS with a Non-Conference SoS of 21. DePaul is actually sitting at 10 overall with a NC-SoS of 164. Xavier is next at 11 overall with NC-SoS of 70.
Considering DePaul's overall SoS isn't burdened by having to play DePaul twice during the season, and that their non-conference slate was considerably softer than both MU and Xavier, the impact appears to be insignificant.
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KenPom has MU with the 9 overall SoS with a Non-Conference SoS of 21. DePaul is actually sitting at 10 overall with a NC-SoS of 164. Xavier is next at 11 overall with NC-SoS of 70.
Considering DePaul's overall SoS isn't burdened by having to play DePaul twice during the season, and that their non-conference slate was considerably softer than both MU and Xavier, the impact appears to be insignificant.
True...but Marquette doesn't get to play number 13 Marquette twice as well...argument cuts both ways.
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True...but Marquette doesn't get to play number 13 Marquette twice as well...argument cuts both ways.
11 SoS Xavier got the benefit of playing 9 SoS MU twice and they're two spots lower in overall KenPom SoS than MU...and also behind DePaul, who gets the best of both worlds by not having to play themselves while also playing the top 3 teams in the conference twice.
NET has (SoS rankings):
Xavier 5 overall, 34 NC
MU 8 overall, 18 NC
DePaul 9 overall, 122 NC
So maybe it matters a spot or two at the absolute most? Insignificant.
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Big East NET Rankings as of gamea of March 13, 2024
New Old
3 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
13 13 Marquette
39 39 St. John's
40 33 Villanova
62 63 Providence
63 64 Xavier
64 62 Seton Hall
66 65 Butler
203 199 Georgetown
320 322 DePaul
March 14 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Really surprised to see Villanova drop 7 spots with a loss to Creighton and narrow (ugly) win to DePaul.
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So much for being able to get a Q1 win outta a Q1 loss to Nova tonight.
They torpedoed their metrics with that debacle.
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So much for being able to get a Q1 win outta a Q1 loss to Nova tonight.
They torpedoed their metrics with that debacle.
Yep. Last night was the worst possible outcome. If they werent going to blow out DePaul, at least give us the entertainment of losing.
Now were just hoping Villanova can stay in the top 40 to keep three road win Q1A
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So much for being able to get a Q1 win outta a Q1 loss to Nova tonight.
They torpedoed their metrics with that debacle.
Yep. I told my wife that if Nova lost, Neptune might be called into the AD's office today for a final little chat.
They won, but my GAWD.
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Last night was the worst possible outcome.
Not according to a Scooper whom I won't name. (But it rhymes with Schluggsy.)
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 14,2024
New Old
2 3 UConn
11 11 Creighton
13 13 Marquette
32 39 St. John's
39 40 Villanova
57 62 Providence
62 63 Xavier
65 64 Seton Hall
66 66 Butler
204 203 Georgetown
320 320 DePaul
March 15 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Marquette has the 5TH Most Quad 1 Wins in the Country by themselves behind Houston UConn Purdue and Baylor
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 15, 2024
New Old
2 2 UConn
11 11 Creighton
12 13 Marquette
34 32 St. John's
40 39 Villanova
57 57 Providence
63 62 Xavier
66 65 Seton Hall
67 66 Butler
204 204 Georgetown
320 320 DePaul
March 16 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 12:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 16, 2024
New Old
2 2 UConn
11 11 Creighton
13 12 Marquette
32 34 St. John's
41 40 Villanova
57 57 Providence
64 63 Xavier
67 66 Seton Hall
68 67 Butler
205 204 Georgetown
320 320 DePaul
March 17 Team Sheets
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 13:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East NET Rankings as of games of March 17, 2024
New Old
2 2 UConn
11 11 Creighton
14 13 Marquette
32 32 St. John's
41 41 Villanova
58 57 Providence
64 64 Xavier
67 67 Seton Hall
68 68 Butler
205 205 Georgetown
320 320 DePaul
March 18 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 14:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette
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Big East Poll Rankings March 18, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
8. MU
11. Creighton
Coaches
1. U Conn
8. MU
11. Creighton
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Big East Poll Rankings April 9, 2024
AP
1. U Conn
12. MU
13. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
Coaches
1. U Conn
10. Creighton
11. MU
Other Receiving Votes
The Hall