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Author Topic: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets  (Read 129669 times)

wisblue

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #475 on: February 01, 2023, 09:07:01 AM »
Beat the teams you're supposed to be by the margins you're expected to win by and you'll stay where you're at. Beat them by more and you'll move up. Beat them by less and you'll move down. It really isn't that hard.

It may not be quite that simple because you have to take into account what the teams around you do.

Using the UConn-Kansas situation as an example, UConn basically did what they were supposed to at DePaul, but Kansas did something better and jumped past them.

I’m not convinced that margin of victory makes as much of a difference as some seem to think it does, though maybe I’m wrong. But, regardless of the margins, beating Kansas State adds more to the resume than beating DePaul, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Kansas moved up.

The other message should be that movements of a spot or two in the NET shouldn’t get anyone too excited. There will be a lot more shuffling in the weeks ahead, and it’s not as if the NCAA seedings perfectly reflect the NET. Kansas was already significantly ahead of UConn in everybody’s seed list.


jficke13

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #476 on: February 01, 2023, 09:13:40 AM »
I think margin of victory is an easy to observe proxy for offensive and defensive efficiency, and that it fairly well correlates with exceeding expectations (or falling short of expectations).

Ie, it's not the fact that a 12 point win is worth less than a 20 point win, its that a 20 point win is more likely to be produced via better offensive and defensive efficiency levels, and if the "expected" outcome was a win by a tighter margin, then to produce a larger winning margin would likely mean exceeding the offensive and defensive efficiency predictions.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #477 on: February 01, 2023, 09:31:00 AM »
It may not be quite that simple because you have to take into account what the teams around you do.

Using the UConn-Kansas situation as an example, UConn basically did what they were supposed to at DePaul, but Kansas did something better and jumped past them.

I’m not convinced that margin of victory makes as much of a difference as some seem to think it does, though maybe I’m wrong. But, regardless of the margins, beating Kansas State adds more to the resume than beating DePaul, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Kansas moved up.

The other message should be that movements of a spot or two in the NET shouldn’t get anyone too excited. There will be a lot more shuffling in the weeks ahead, and it’s not as if the NCAA seedings perfectly reflect the NET. Kansas was already significantly ahead of UConn in everybody’s seed list.

Huh??

Kansas beat Kstate by 12.

In your scenario. Both Uconn and Kansas won by double digits.

How bad you beat teams definitely matters. But Kansas beat the metrics margin of victory soundly against a team that was 16 in the NET. While Uconn be their margins soundly against #163.

Without knowing the exact NET forumla. Its still pretty simple to see how to have a good NET.

1. Beat good teams
2. If you lose lose to good teams
3. When you win cover the spread as much as possible.
4. When you lose dont lose by a lot/cover when youre a dog.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

wisblue

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #478 on: February 01, 2023, 09:57:23 AM »
Huh??

Kansas beat Kstate by 12.

In your scenario. Both Uconn and Kansas won by double digits.

How bad you beat teams definitely matters. But Kansas beat the metrics margin of victory soundly against a team that was 16 in the NET. While Uconn be their margins soundly against #163.

Without knowing the exact NET forumla. Its still pretty simple to see how to have a good NET.

1. Beat good teams
2. If you lose lose to good teams
3. When you win cover the spread as much as possible.
4. When you lose dont lose by a lot/cover when youre a dog.

The point still remains how much each of those things matters.

I think everyone agrees that number 1 is by far the biggest factor.

Covering the spread as much as possible suggests that winning by 50-60 points helps more than winning by a mere 15-20 points and coasting in. I’m skeptical about that.

To the extent that big victory margins help with some of the metrics, it begs the question of how much of a factor those metrics are in the NET formula itself,  or whether they are included just included on NET team sheets to give the Selection Committee some additional input to help identify teams that may be better or worse than suggested by their NET ranking.

On the Kansas-UConn example, everyone would agree that beating Kansas State is more impressive than beating DePaul. For all we know, Kansas might have jumped UConn if they had won by 2 while UConn won by 25.

If someone knows exactly what the NET formula is and how much impact any one factor has, that hasn’t been publicized.



UWW2MU

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #479 on: February 01, 2023, 12:35:52 PM »
I think margin of victory is an easy to observe proxy for offensive and defensive efficiency, and that it fairly well correlates with exceeding expectations (or falling short of expectations).

Ie, it's not the fact that a 12 point win is worth less than a 20 point win, its that a 20 point win is more likely to be produced via better offensive and defensive efficiency levels, and if the "expected" outcome was a win by a tighter margin, then to produce a larger winning margin would likely mean exceeding the offensive and defensive efficiency predictions.

Refreshing to know you're not the only one in the room that understands this.

jficke13

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #480 on: February 01, 2023, 12:44:00 PM »
The point still remains how much each of those things matters.

I think everyone agrees that number 1 is by far the biggest factor.

Covering the spread as much as possible suggests that winning by 50-60 points helps more than winning by a mere 15-20 points and coasting in. I’m skeptical about that.

To the extent that big victory margins help with some of the metrics, it begs the question of how much of a factor those metrics are in the NET formula itself,  or whether they are included just included on NET team sheets to give the Selection Committee some additional input to help identify teams that may be better or worse than suggested by their NET ranking.

On the Kansas-UConn example, everyone would agree that beating Kansas State is more impressive than beating DePaul. For all we know, Kansas might have jumped UConn if they had won by 2 while UConn won by 25.

If someone knows exactly what the NET formula is and how much impact any one factor has, that hasn’t been publicized.

It's been a minute since I was in a physics class, so engineer people feel free to correct me. (fwiw I 100% recall a teacher telling me this, but whether it's nonsense I leave to others, it makes the point). But we figured out how gravity works in a way that can be mathematically modeled because the math always worked so long as the Gravitation Constant was applied to the formula. Perhaps with knowing "exactly what the [gravitational mechanics are'" we wouldn't need that constant to fudge the numbers, but it doesn't really matter does it? We can still drop a ball off a lab table and predict how long it will take to hit the floor.

I say that because it's not strictly speaking *necessary* to know *exactly* how the NET formula is because there's sufficient observation of how different outcomes move teams in NET rankings. We can *accurately* describe what it takes to improve one's NET even if we can't *precisely* say what factor moved it by what margins.  Drive your ppp up, limit the ppp you allow, and doing that more than you're predicted to, and your NET will improve.

Do that, and you'll win games, and by big margins too.

The rest is kinda noise.

As to how the committee uses NET or other metrics, I'll leave that to Brew to expound on. I don't even play a bracketologist on internet message boards.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #481 on: February 01, 2023, 03:13:16 PM »
Covering the spread as much as possible suggests that winning by 50-60 points helps more than winning by a mere 15-20 points and coasting in. I’m skeptical about that.

People have suggested that the NET should adopt a model with diminishing returns where the more you beat a team by, the less it matters, but based on actual results, that doesn't seem to be the case. Every year there are teams with high NET scores that can only be explained by the 30-50 point beatings they put on their cupcakes because the rest of their resume is poor.
TAMU

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Newsdreams

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #482 on: February 01, 2023, 05:15:57 PM »
It's been a minute since I was in a physics class, so engineer people feel free to correct me. (fwiw I 100% recall a teacher telling me this, but whether it's nonsense I leave to others, it makes the point). But we figured out how gravity works in a way that can be mathematically modeled because the math always worked so long as the Gravitation Constant was applied to the formula. Perhaps with knowing "exactly what the [gravitational mechanics are'" we wouldn't need that constant to fudge the numbers, but it doesn't really matter does it? We can still drop a ball off a lab table and predict how long it will take to hit the floor.

I say that because it's not strictly speaking *necessary* to know *exactly* how the NET formula is because there's sufficient observation of how different outcomes move teams in NET rankings. We can *accurately* describe what it takes to improve one's NET even if we can't *precisely* say what factor moved it by what margins.  Drive your ppp up, limit the ppp you allow, and doing that more than you're predicted to, and your NET will improve.

Do that, and you'll win games, and by big margins too.

The rest is kinda noise.

As to how the committee uses NET or other metrics, I'll leave that to Brew to expound on. I don't even play a bracketologist on internet message boards.
Sort of on gravity, but won't go into details because Dr. Blackheart will beat me up because I'm a nerd. By the way his house remodeling sucks.
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MarquetteMike1977

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #483 on: February 02, 2023, 07:26:40 AM »
Marquette’s Net Is 11 Thursday

CountryRoads

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #484 on: February 02, 2023, 07:28:50 AM »
Marquette’s Net Is 11 Thursday

Thanks. Doesn’t help that we woke up with our first Q3 loss.

Herman Cain

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #485 on: February 02, 2023, 07:32:02 AM »
Big East NET rankings as of games of February 1, 2023
New Old
8   8   UConn   
11   11   Marquette   
17   17   Creighton   
26   28   Xavier   
36   35   Providence   
53   57   Seton Hall   
89   90   Villanova   
96   87   St. John's
110   111   Butler   
165   163   DePaul   
243   243   Georgetown

February 2 Team Sheets . MU is 11
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
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wisblue

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #486 on: February 02, 2023, 07:40:12 AM »
Thanks. Doesn’t help that we woke up with our first Q3 loss.

Not yet according to the Warren Nolan data, but the Badger game is teetering on the brink.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 07:47:06 AM by wisblue »

lawdog77

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #487 on: February 02, 2023, 07:41:12 AM »
Thanks. Doesn’t help that we woke up with our first Q3 loss.
I am fine with that.

As an aside, ran across this explanation of NET
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium

tower912

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #488 on: February 02, 2023, 07:42:17 AM »
Villanova moved up a spot by losing to MU.  MI was never going to get a big boost unless they won by >15. 
11 is fine.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

CountryRoads

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #489 on: February 02, 2023, 07:45:37 AM »
I am fine with that.

As an aside, ran across this explanation of NET
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium

Same, but such an important win last night. Resume would have taken a big hit adding 2 in one night.

wisblue

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #490 on: February 02, 2023, 07:50:04 AM »
I am fine with that.

As an aside, ran across this explanation of NET
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds72JOCWwAUvPIK?format=jpg&name=medium

I think this might be the original NET. It was revised a couple of years ago and eliminated some of these factors.

lawdog77

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #491 on: February 02, 2023, 07:56:31 AM »
I think this might be the original NET. It was revised a couple of years ago and eliminated some of these factors.
You are correct. Found this:

The 2021-22 men's basketball season marks the fourth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. In May 2020, the NCAA announced there will be changes made to the NCAA Evaluation Tool to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two.

The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home.


PGsHeroes32

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #492 on: February 02, 2023, 08:03:40 AM »
Villanova moved up a spot by losing to MU.  MI was never going to get a big boost unless they won by >15. 
11 is fine.

This game was all about not dropping. And as we see, we avoided doing that.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

tower912

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #493 on: February 02, 2023, 08:06:09 AM »
Yup.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Herman Cain

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #494 on: February 03, 2023, 07:37:25 AM »
Big East NET rankings as of games of February 2,2023
New  Old
8   8   UConn   
12   11   Marquette   
17   17   Creighton   
26   26   Xavier   
35   36   Providence   
51   53   Seton Hall
91   89   Villanova   
94   96   St. John's
112   110   Butler   
164   165   DePaul   
242   243   Georgetown   

February 3 Team Sheets . MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #495 on: February 03, 2023, 06:32:20 PM »
Saint Mary's beat San Francisco last night but it wasn't pretty. The close win at home dropped them significantly in KenPom score (not rank). We're now closer to 7th than we are to 9th and there's a pretty clear break between the top 6 and the rest of the field.
TAMU

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Herman Cain

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #496 on: February 04, 2023, 06:56:07 AM »
Big East NET rankings as of games of February 3, 2023
New Old
8   8   UConn   
12   12   Marquette   
17   17   Creighton   
26   26   Xavier   
35   35   Providence   
52   51   Seton Hall   
89   91   Villanova   
94   94   St. John's
111   112   Butler
164   164   DePaul   
242   242   Georgetown

February 4 Team Sheets . MU is 12
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
                       ---Al McGuire

MarquetteMike1977

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #497 on: February 05, 2023, 02:41:58 AM »
Marquette’s NET is 14 Sunday

Herman Cain

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #498 on: February 05, 2023, 06:39:18 AM »
Big East NET rankings as of games of February 4, 2023
New  Old
7   8   UConn   
14   12   Marquette   
16   17   Creighton   
24   26   Xavier   
37   35   Providence
51   52   Seton Hall   
91   89   Villanova   
98   94   St. John's
112   111   Butler   
163   164   DePaul   
238   242   Georgetown

February 5 Team Sheets . MU is 14
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/net-teamsheets-plus
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
                       ---Al McGuire

HowardsWorld

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Re: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets
« Reply #499 on: February 05, 2023, 07:32:15 AM »
The net rankings never cease to amaze me. Marquette drops 3 spots from 11 to 14 in the course of 2 days because they beat a bad butler team by 8 instead of 15 but Uconn hasn't played a good game since the end of December, losing 6 games since January but has only dropped 6 spots.