[Cracked Sidewalks] Who Will Score?

[brewcity77]

Today we dig into the question of "Who Will Score?" at Marquette now that Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell are gone. To begin, we look back at the past 24 years of Marquette history to determine if there is any link between losing volume scoring, like Marquette just did, and a decline in offensive efficiency. The bottom link will be the most recent article.

Preview: https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/coming-soon-who-will-score.html

Part I: Marquette https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-i-marquette.html

Part II: Shaka Smart https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-ii-shaka-smart.html

Part III: The Leading Candidates https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-iii-leading.html?m=1

Part IV: The Dark Horses https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/07/who-will-score-part-iv-dark-horses.html

Part V: Calculating eFG% https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/07/who-will-score-part-v-calculating-efg.html

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Nobody.  We'll be lucky to score 50 ppg.

[tower912]

MU will have an easier time scoring next season than last.   Should be fun.

[GoldenEagles03]

Is it Justin Lewis?

That would be my guess for the trivia question.

[rocky_warrior]

A: our opponents off of rebounds

[bilsu]

Kam Jones will be our leading scorer.

[NCMUFan]

Maybe the question is:  Will we score enough?

[Lennys Tap]

Maybe the question is:  Will we score enough?

Isn't that always the question?

[Newsdreams]

Maybe the question is:  Will we score enough?

We just need to score 1 more point than the other team.

[mileskishnish72]

I think you nailed it, 03. There were no big scorers at VCU or TX. Justin gets my vote.

[brewcity77]

Today we dig into the question of "Who Will Score?" at Marquette now that Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell are gone. To begin, we look back at the past 24 years of Marquette history to determine if there is any link between losing volume scoring, like Marquette just did, and a decline in offensive efficiency.

Part I: Marquette https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-i-marquette.html

[GoldenEagles03]

I think you nailed it, 03. There were no big scorers at VCU or TX. Justin gets my vote.

I couldn't think of any big scorers. Maybe Kerwin Roach at Texas? Justin is still my guess.

[brewcity77]

I couldn't think of any big scorers. Maybe Kerwin Roach at Texas? Justin is still my guess.

The answer will be in Part II, which focuses on the same topic as the Part I, but through the lens of Shaka's career

[Hards Alumni]

[muwarrior69]

Didn't we ask that question last season?

[brewcity77]

Today we look back at Shaka Smart's history of replacing scoring, then compare all that data with Marquette's data from the previous article as we look at 37 seasons of aggregated data. We also answer the trivia question posed earlier. Spoiler...someone already got it right

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-ii-shaka-smart.html

[Norm]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I have less confidence about next year's team after reading these articles. They almost reinforce that Shaka is living off the one Final Four run. Justin Lewis is the highest scoring player ever for Shaka? At 16 pts a game? Yikes.

I think MU's roster next year does not match up with the top half of the Big East and I'm not very impressed with Shaka's recruiting thus far. I honestly do not understand the excitement others have here with MU basketball's chances next year or in the near future. If Shaka is concentrating on building the right culture, fine. But the the recruiting needs to improve or it won't matter if MU has the best culture in the world but we can't compete on the court.

.

[brewcity77]

Individual points scored don't guarantee good offense. Shaka's two best offenses at Texas (2019 & 2021) were both top-30 and while neither had a 15 ppg scorer, they both had six players average 8+ ppg. He also had multiple NBA players on those teams that he developed into that from outside the top-50.

It won't look the same, but that doesn't mean the results won't be fine.

[Newsdreams]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I have less confidence about next year's team after reading these articles. They almost reinforce that Shaka is living off the one Final Four run. Justin Lewis is the highest scoring player ever for Shaka? At 16 pts a game? Yikes.

I think MU's roster next year does not match up with the top half of the Big East and I'm not very impressed with Shaka's recruiting thus far. I honestly do not understand the excitement others have here with MU basketball's chances next year or in the near future. If Shaka is concentrating on building the right culture, fine. But the the recruiting needs to improve or it won't matter if MU has the best culture in the world but we can't compete on the court.

.

COLE

[tower912]

I am more optimistic than I was a year ago.

[Shooter McGavin]

I am more optimistic than I was a year ago.

Tower are there specific players you are excited about that back up your optimism?  Is it just the year to year development of the team in general?  Is it the style of play? 

Just curious why you have more optimism this year. 

[tower912]

Development.  A year ago was a blank slate.   Now we have an idea what the returnees can do.   I had no expectations a year ago because there were no knowns.   

[The Equalizer]

Today we dig into the question of "Who Will Score?" at Marquette now that Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell are gone. To begin, we look back at the past 24 years of Marquette history to determine if there is any link between losing volume scoring, like Marquette just did, and a decline in offensive efficiency. The bottom link will be the most recent article.

Preview: https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/coming-soon-who-will-score.html

Part I: Marquette https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-i-marquette.html

Part II: Shaka Smart https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-ii-shaka-smart.html

Curious as to why you chose "AdjO Rank" and "Change in AdjO Rank" as your comparison metrics instead of just AdjO  and Change in AdjO?

It seesm to me that a team could decline in AdjO but still improve in rank (and vice versa). For example, let's say your AdjO was 111.0 in 2019, ranking you 58th. If your performance fell in 2020 to 110.0, you would still show an improvement in rank from 58th to 46th, even though your Offensive Efficiency got worse. 

An offensive efficiency rating of 110.0 could rank as poor as 92nd and as good as 46th, depending on what year it was.

Or am I missing someting as to why Rank is more accurate than comparing offensive efficiency year over year?

[brewcity77]

Curious as to why you chose "AdjO Rank" and "Change in AdjO Rank" as your comparison metrics instead of just AdjO  and Change in AdjO?

It seesm to me that a team could decline in AdjO but still improve in rank (and vice versa). For example, let's say your AdjO was 111.0 in 2019, ranking you 58th. If your performance fell in 2020 to 110.0, you would still show an improvement in rank from 58th to 46th, even though your Offensive Efficiency got worse. 

An offensive efficiency rating of 110.0 could rank as poor as 92nd and as good as 46th, depending on what year it was.

Or am I missing someting as to why Rank is more accurate than comparing offensive efficiency year over year?

Two reasons. Mainly because it's easier for readers to contextualize. If I dig into the adjusted numbers, it requires more explanation, and explaining the significance of the difference between say 110.0 adjusted (#52 nationally last year) and 108.0 adjusted (#80 last year). 2 points per 100 possessions seems like a small margin, particularly when games are typically 60-75 possessions, but it's a significant jump. Easier to just provide the rank, which everyone can easily contextualize.

Second, less important reason, because of that 92nd to 44th rank, which is a pretty big disparity. The rank number shows where your team comes in compared to the other peer teams in the same season. At the end of the year, there's a significant difference between being a top-50 offense and in the 90s.

It was something I thought about, and this just seemed liked the easier route, especially when these were already feeling like lengthy articles that were getting pretty far into the statistical weeds.

[Shooter McGavin]

Thanks for the work Brew!