[Cracked Sidewalks] Who Will Score?

[brewcity77]

Today we dig into the question of "Who Will Score?" at Marquette now that Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell are gone. To begin, we look back at the past 24 years of Marquette history to determine if there is any link between losing volume scoring, like Marquette just did, and a decline in offensive efficiency. The bottom link will be the most recent article.

Preview: https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/coming-soon-who-will-score.html

Part I: Marquette https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-i-marquette.html

Part II: Shaka Smart https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-ii-shaka-smart.html

Part III: The Leading Candidates https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-iii-leading.html?m=1

Part IV: The Dark Horses https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/07/who-will-score-part-iv-dark-horses.html

Part V: Calculating eFG% https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/07/who-will-score-part-v-calculating-efg.html

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Nobody.  We'll be lucky to score 50 ppg.

[tower912]

MU will have an easier time scoring next season than last.   Should be fun.

[GoldenEagles03]

Is it Justin Lewis?

That would be my guess for the trivia question.

[rocky_warrior]

A: our opponents off of rebounds

[bilsu]

Kam Jones will be our leading scorer.

[NCMUFan]

Maybe the question is:  Will we score enough?

[Lennys Tap]

Maybe the question is:  Will we score enough?

Isn’t that always the question?

[Newsdreams]

Maybe the question is:  Will we score enough?

We just need to score 1 more point than the other team.

[mileskishnish72]

I think you nailed it, 03. There were no big scorers at VCU or TX. Justin gets my vote.

[brewcity77]

Today we dig into the question of "Who Will Score?" at Marquette now that Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell are gone. To begin, we look back at the past 24 years of Marquette history to determine if there is any link between losing volume scoring, like Marquette just did, and a decline in offensive efficiency.

Part I: Marquette https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-i-marquette.html

[GoldenEagles03]

I think you nailed it, 03. There were no big scorers at VCU or TX. Justin gets my vote.

I couldn't think of any big scorers. Maybe Kerwin Roach at Texas? Justin is still my guess.

[brewcity77]

I couldn't think of any big scorers. Maybe Kerwin Roach at Texas? Justin is still my guess.

The answer will be in Part II, which focuses on the same topic as the Part I, but through the lens of Shaka's career

[Hards Alumni]

[muwarrior69]

Didn't we ask that question last season?

[brewcity77]

Today we look back at Shaka Smart's history of replacing scoring, then compare all that data with Marquette's data from the previous article as we look at 37 seasons of aggregated data. We also answer the trivia question posed earlier. Spoiler...someone already got it right

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-ii-shaka-smart.html

[Norm]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I have less confidence about next year's team after reading these articles. They almost reinforce that Shaka is living off the one Final Four run. Justin Lewis is the highest scoring player ever for Shaka? At 16 pts a game? Yikes.

I think MU's roster next year does not match up with the top half of the Big East and I'm not very impressed with Shaka's recruiting thus far. I honestly do not understand the excitement others have here with MU basketball's chances next year or in the near future. If Shaka is concentrating on building the right culture, fine. But the the recruiting needs to improve or it won't matter if MU has the best culture in the world but we can't compete on the court.

.

[brewcity77]

Individual points scored don't guarantee good offense. Shaka's two best offenses at Texas (2019 & 2021) were both top-30 and while neither had a 15 ppg scorer, they both had six players average 8+ ppg. He also had multiple NBA players on those teams that he developed into that from outside the top-50.

It won't look the same, but that doesn't mean the results won't be fine.

[Newsdreams]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I have less confidence about next year's team after reading these articles. They almost reinforce that Shaka is living off the one Final Four run. Justin Lewis is the highest scoring player ever for Shaka? At 16 pts a game? Yikes.

I think MU's roster next year does not match up with the top half of the Big East and I'm not very impressed with Shaka's recruiting thus far. I honestly do not understand the excitement others have here with MU basketball's chances next year or in the near future. If Shaka is concentrating on building the right culture, fine. But the the recruiting needs to improve or it won't matter if MU has the best culture in the world but we can't compete on the court.

.

COLE

[tower912]

I am more optimistic than I was a year ago.

[Shooter McGavin]

I am more optimistic than I was a year ago.

Tower are there specific players you are excited about that back up your optimism?  Is it just the year to year development of the team in general?  Is it the style of play? 

Just curious why you have more optimism this year. 

[tower912]

Development.  A year ago was a blank slate.   Now we have an idea what the returnees can do.   I had no expectations a year ago because there were no knowns.   

[The Equalizer]

Today we dig into the question of "Who Will Score?" at Marquette now that Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell are gone. To begin, we look back at the past 24 years of Marquette history to determine if there is any link between losing volume scoring, like Marquette just did, and a decline in offensive efficiency. The bottom link will be the most recent article.

Preview: https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/coming-soon-who-will-score.html

Part I: Marquette https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-i-marquette.html

Part II: Shaka Smart https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-ii-shaka-smart.html

Curious as to why you chose "AdjO Rank" and "Change in AdjO Rank" as your comparison metrics instead of just AdjO  and Change in AdjO?

It seesm to me that a team could decline in AdjO but still improve in rank (and vice versa). For example, let's say your AdjO was 111.0 in 2019, ranking you 58th. If your performance fell in 2020 to 110.0, you would still show an improvement in rank from 58th to 46th, even though your Offensive Efficiency got worse. 

An offensive efficiency rating of 110.0 could rank as poor as 92nd and as good as 46th, depending on what year it was.

Or am I missing someting as to why Rank is more accurate than comparing offensive efficiency year over year?

[brewcity77]

Curious as to why you chose "AdjO Rank" and "Change in AdjO Rank" as your comparison metrics instead of just AdjO  and Change in AdjO?

It seesm to me that a team could decline in AdjO but still improve in rank (and vice versa). For example, let's say your AdjO was 111.0 in 2019, ranking you 58th. If your performance fell in 2020 to 110.0, you would still show an improvement in rank from 58th to 46th, even though your Offensive Efficiency got worse. 

An offensive efficiency rating of 110.0 could rank as poor as 92nd and as good as 46th, depending on what year it was.

Or am I missing someting as to why Rank is more accurate than comparing offensive efficiency year over year?

Two reasons. Mainly because it's easier for readers to contextualize. If I dig into the adjusted numbers, it requires more explanation, and explaining the significance of the difference between say 110.0 adjusted (#52 nationally last year) and 108.0 adjusted (#80 last year). 2 points per 100 possessions seems like a small margin, particularly when games are typically 60-75 possessions, but it's a significant jump. Easier to just provide the rank, which everyone can easily contextualize.

Second, less important reason, because of that 92nd to 44th rank, which is a pretty big disparity. The rank number shows where your team comes in compared to the other peer teams in the same season. At the end of the year, there's a significant difference between being a top-50 offense and in the 90s.

It was something I thought about, and this just seemed liked the easier route, especially when these were already feeling like lengthy articles that were getting pretty far into the statistical weeds.

[Shooter McGavin]

Thanks for the work Brew!

[bilsu]

I am more worried about us on the defensive end than I am on the scoring end.
I expect improved scoring out of several returning players.
I think Kuath is a huge loss on the defensive end. Oso was a very good backup center. Oso will be a good starter, but I do not know how we will do if he does not have an effective backup. The big unknown is Iterje.

[jfp61]

I am more worried about us on the defensive end than I am on the scoring end.
I expect improved scoring out of several returning players.
I think Kuath is a huge loss on the defensive end. Oso was a very good backup center. Oso will be a good starter, but I do not know how we will do if he does not have an effective backup. The big unknown is Iterje.

I’m more worried about every other position defensively (minus Omax.).

The bigger problem at the end of last year was the guard defense. Mitchell was the only Rapm  negative guard in the past few games of the season. Kolek defense took a major downturn late. Morsells defense was questionable all year for his pedigree. And kam was lost. Now Joplin or a freshman in gold will have to play more defense. Joplin was probably our worst defender last year.

Oso and Keeyan will be fine vs most bigs minus Kalkbrenner and Sanogo. But Kur struggled against them too.

[brewcity77]

Looking at Smart's history, I'm less worried about his defense. Look at his first three years ranks at both VCU and Texas:

VCU: 98 / 78 / 23
Texas: 40 / 21 / 12

None of our guys had played in his system before. Clearly the defense took a downturn late, but I think another year in the system and more athleticism overall will help us on that end of the floor. Darryl was a great defensive quarterback, but his individual defense definitely came up short sometimes, and Justin's biggest weakness was on that end of the floor. There are obviously no guarantees, but guys like Kam and Tyler have the tools to be good defenders. We were so young last year, I can't help but think having our key players older and more experienced in the system will help significantly.

[Nukem2]

Looking at Smart's history, I'm less worried about his defense. Look at his first three years ranks at both VCU and Texas:

VCU: 98 / 78 / 23
Texas: 40 / 21 / 12

None of our guys had played in his system before. Clearly the defense took a downturn late, but I think another year in the system and more athleticism overall will help us on that end of the floor. Darryl was a great defensive quarterback, but his individual defense definitely came up short sometimes, and Justin's biggest weakness was on that end of the floor. There are obviously no guarantees, but guys like Kam and Tyler have the tools to be good defenders. We were so young last year, I can't help but think having our key players older and more experienced in the system will help significantly.

Dont know that Daryl’s individual defense came up shoort per se. A lot of that was a new system while trying to help all those new guys…?

[brewcity77]

Dont know that Daryl’s individual defense came up shoort per se. A lot of that was a new system while trying to help all those new guys…?

I do think that was part of it. And I think he was really good at getting everyone else into position, but it made his individual job harder. Overall he was good and we wouldn't have made the NCAAs without him, but I don't think he was able to lock in the way he did at Maryland or the way Justin Minaya was at Providence because his responsibilities were different here. As a team, I believe there's a good chance we'll be better for it in the long run.

[Newsdreams]

I do think that was part of it. And I think he was really good at getting everyone else into position, but it made his individual job harder. Overall he was good and we wouldn't have made the NCAAs without him, but I don't think he was able to lock in the way he did at Maryland or the way Justin Minaya was at Providence because his responsibilities were different here. As a team, I believe there's a good chance we'll be better for it in the long run.

Doing more on offense also becomes part of the equation.

[Daniel]

Looking at Smart's history, I'm less worried about his defense. Look at his first three years ranks at both VCU and Texas:

VCU: 98 / 78 / 23
Texas: 40 / 21 / 12

None of our guys had played in his system before. Clearly the defense took a downturn late, but I think another year in the system and more athleticism overall will help us on that end of the floor. Darryl was a great defensive quarterback, but his individual defense definitely came up short sometimes, and Justin's biggest weakness was on that end of the floor. There are obviously no guarantees, but guys like Kam and Tyler have the tools to be good defenders. We were so young last year, I can't help but think having our key players older and more experienced in the system will help significantly.

I think the more athletes Shaka recruits, the better the defense will be as athletic players have the tools to be good defensively if they learn them.  So, I think we will be better and better. 

[bilsu]

I like the way Shaka has his teams play defense. However, I think as the season goes on teams become better prepared to play against pressure defenses. They panic less and know how to pass the ball down court to beat the press.

[brewcity77]

Today we look at the top-3 most likely options to take the scoring leader mantle based on 2022-23 projected points. I'll admit, I wasn't overwhelmed by these projections.

That said, there's more than volume scoring to offensive quality & the subsequent pieces will provide more options and reasons for optimism.

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/06/who-will-score-part-iii-leading.html?m=1

[BM1090]

Mitchell is going to earn a lot of minutes with his defense. He started to find his offense at the end of the year too and it didn't look like a fluke. Seemed like the game started to slow down for him. He made better cuts, improved his finishing, and started developing confidence in the jump shot.

Lots of three or four guard lineups this year.

[MUfan12]

Mitchell is going to earn a lot of minutes with his defense. He started to find his offense at the end of the year too and it didn't look like a fluke. Seemed like the game started to slow down for him. He made better cuts, improved his finishing, and started developing confidence in the jump shot.

I root for all our guys, but I'd really love to see Stevie continue to grow offensively and become a mainstay. I love his energy. Seems like a great kid and teammate.

[Herman Cain]

Mitchell is going to earn a lot of minutes with his defense. He started to find his offense at the end of the year too and it didn't look like a fluke. Seemed like the game started to slow down for him. He made better cuts, improved his finishing, and started developing confidence in the jump shot.

Lots of three or four guard lineups this year.

I agree with this analysis

[brewcity77]

Mitchell is going to earn a lot of minutes with his defense. He started to find his offense at the end of the year too and it didn't look like a fluke. Seemed like the game started to slow down for him. He made better cuts, improved his finishing, and started developing confidence in the jump shot.

Lots of three or four guard lineups this year.

I think our natural set will be three guards. Kolek and Kam, then Stevie and Sean Jones the other primary rotation pieces. I think we'll see lots of two PG lineups.

[Scoop Snoop]

I think our natural set will be three guards. Kolek and Kam, then Stevie and Sean Jones the other primary rotation pieces. I think we'll see lots of two PG lineups.

I'm hoping that both and BM1090 will explain in some detail why you expect to see the different guard lineups (specifically, 2 guard vs. 4 guard please). 

Edit: how does current talent and (or maybe vs.) Skaka's system(s) enter into your expectations?

[brewcity77]

It's largely personnel and history based. Last year we played 3-guard over 60% of the time and at Texas, Shaka routinely ran out Coleman, Ramey, and Jones with Jase Febres rounding out the 4 guards for 3 spots rotation.

I think Kolek and Kam are locked into 25-30 mpg roles with two other guards (Stevie and Sean, most likely) being 20 mpg guys.

I think 4-guard will be rare, but do see some need for small ball if Itejere can't play 10-15 mpg. Maybe then we see O-Max or Wrightsil playing some 5.

[brewcity77]

The series picks back up today with a focus on returning players that could break through into those top scoring ranks, including our highest "best case" scoring output. Are you ready to get all aboard the Jopwagon?

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/07/who-will-score-part-iv-dark-horses.html

[bilsu]

I think the small forward/ 3rd guard will be Wrightsil. The article about incoming transfers to the Big East listed Wrightsil as a guard, which surprised me.

[brewcity77]

I think the small forward/ 3rd guard will be Wrightsil. The article about incoming transfers to the Big East listed Wrightsil as a guard, which surprised me.

His role will be interesting. I feel like I've heard anything from wing to PF to backup center. Because of his knee scope, he sat out most of the workouts so far so there really hasn't been much feedback on exactly how he will fit in.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

His role will be interesting. I feel like I've heard anything from wing to PF to backup center. Because of his knee scope, he sat out most of the workouts so far so there really hasn't been much feedback on exactly how he will fit in.

I'm guessing small ball center will be his usual role. But he could be in one of those situations where he's a 5 on offense and a 4 on defense when paired with Ben Gold (who would be a 4 on offense and a 5 on defense)

[Dr. Blackheart]

I'm guessing small ball center will be his usual role. But he could be in one of those situations where he's a 5 on offense and a 4 on defense when paired with Ben Gold (who would be a 4 on offense and a 5 on defense)

Bingo. The "guard reference" talk reminded when Eddie Morrow transferred here so he could play guard. Yeah, no.

[wadesworld]

I’m all aboard the Sean Jones hype train and have been the conductor of it for months. I think if this team is going to be anything above a bubble team he will be our best player.

[bilsu]

I’m all aboard the Sean Jones hype train and have been the conductor of it for months. I think if this team is going to be anything above a bubble team he will be our best player.

I just find it interesting how posters think on this site. Jones has fallen to a 120 ranking and is going to play a lot. Chase Ross has risen to 121 and won't play. Our 2023 recruit is ranked 120 in his class and won't play.
I have no idea how much the newcomers will play, but it seems to me that players rising in rankings are the players who will keep on improving.

[brewcity77]

I just find it interesting how posters think on this site. Jones has fallen to a 120 ranking and is going to play a lot. Chase Ross has risen to 121 and won't play. Our 2023 recruit is ranked 120 in his class and won't play.
I have no idea how much the newcomers will play, but it seems to me that players rising in rankings are the players who will keep on improving.

So you think Jones is done improving?

I think much of it with position. Shaka has historically favored multiple ball handlers, which opens up more time for Jones than for someone like Ross that projects as more of a wing. It's not just watching them, but seeing who has the most clearly defined role in terms of team need.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I’m all aboard the Sean Jones hype train and have been the conductor of it for months. I think if this team is going to be anything above a bubble team he will be our best player.

I doubt he will be our best player. But I can see him in our top 5.

[Shooter McGavin]

I’m on the Jones hype train as well.  Not sure why he fell in the rankings.  The only thing I can think of is his height. People also seem to be high on him at MU and you hear the same leaks you did for Kam Jones last year.  Also,  he should get playing time as Brew said based on position alone. 

I like ultra quick athletic point guards.  Hopefully the hype train is real.

[lawdog77]

I’m on the Jones hype train as well.  Not sure why he fell in the rankings.  The only thing I can think of is his height. People also seem to be high on him at MU and you hear the same leaks you did for Kam Jones last year.  Also,  he should get playing time as Brew said based on position alone. 

I like ultra quick athletic point guards.  Hopefully the hype train is real.

Sean Jones is ranked 87th by ESPN. So when the ESPN favors us, it is legit. Otherwise, rubbish.

[Uncle Rico]

Maybe Jones is Marquette’s Trey Burke

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Sean Jones is ranked 87th by ESPN. So when the ESPN favors us, it is legit. Otherwise, rubbish.

ESPN's rankings are hit or miss, just like all the other recruiting rankings.

But when it comes to recruiting information, ESPN is woefully behind the other services.  Unless you're a blue blood.

[bilsu]

So you think Jones is done improving?

I think much of it with position. Shaka has historically favored multiple ball handlers, which opens up more time for Jones than for someone like Ross that projects as more of a wing. It's not just watching them, but seeing who has the most clearly defined role in terms of team need.

I was not commenting on how good or how much Jones will improve. I just thought there was a disparity on this site when it came to how much time similarly ranked players will play. Shaka likes multiple point guards, but he also is big on length.

[brewcity77]

Today we wrap up the Who Will Score series by using our baseline 2022-23 projections and comparing them to the top players from 2021-22 in terms of minutes. Despite our projections indicating the top scorers won't match the volume output of Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell, there are strong reasons for optimism that the offense will still be better on the whole. Let's calculate eFG%.

Part V: https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/07/who-will-score-part-v-calculating-efg.html