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Spotcheck Billy

Quote from: WellsstreetWanderer on April 07, 2022, 06:05:33 PM
if there were programs that were efficient and worked nobody would object but they seem ineffective and
money holes .  Meanwhile crime is rampant and serial offenders are apprehended and released.  A neighbor just had the catalytic convertor stolen despite a lock. Second loss this year for them. i see where there are daily violent attacks in NYC, dozens of car break-ins in SF for example. This is not the definition of a civilized society. I'm just hoping to see the reintroduction of Common Sense. Plenty of room for compassionate treatment under the law but civil society exists for the protection and betterment of the  law abiding

Those perps need a life sentence

Lennys Tap

Quote from: Spotcheck Billy on April 07, 2022, 03:02:38 PM
That's what auto insurance is for.

Sure, insurance is the answer. Criminals break into your home and steal your stuff?...homeowners insurance. Criminals assault you and put you in the hospital, maybe knock a few teeth out?...medical and dental insurance. Criminals beat you to the point that you're unable to ever work again?...disability insurance. Criminals murder you in cold blood?...life insurance.

Criminals aren't the problem - the problem is the victims are under insured.

Lennys Tap

Quote from: Pakuni on April 07, 2022, 07:15:14 PM
I literally just listed three types of programs that are proven to reduce crime.
In the meantime, there may be no government money holes this side of the defense budget larger than the prison system.

Crimes per 100,000 in the U.S.

1965 = 2,449.0
1970 = 3,984.5
1975 = 5,298.5
1980 = 5,950.0
1985 = 5,207.1
1990 = 5,820.3
1995 = 5,274.9
2000 = 4,124.8
2005 = 3,900.5
2010 = 3,350.4
2015 = 2,885.1
2020 = 2,346.0

Can we stop with the silly, and easily proved false, claims that crime is suddenly "rampant" and "out of control." Crime rates are at their lowest levels since the mid 1960s, and half what they were through the 80s and 90s.
Yes, crime has ticked up slightly over the past few years (hint: pandemic), but we're still significantly safer than we've been at any time in the past 50 years.

Sources:
https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/home

Crime is down but an awful lot of cities are breaking records for murders.

rocket surgeon

Quote from: WellsstreetWanderer on April 07, 2022, 06:05:33 PM
if there were programs that were efficient and worked nobody would object but they seem ineffective and
money holes .  Meanwhile crime is rampant and serial offenders are apprehended and released.  A neighbor just had the catalytic convertor stolen despite a lock. Second loss this year for them. i see where there are daily violent attacks in NYC, dozens of car break-ins in SF for example. This is not the definition of a civilized society. I'm just hoping to see the reintroduction of Common Sense. Plenty of room for compassionate treatment under the law but civil society exists for the protection and betterment of the  law abiding

  hey!!  a voice of reason is a breath of fresh air in this world they have you believe our air is dirty and our water unclean, but i digress...perception is reality and i don't give a rats posterior what the numbers say, violent crime is up.  in certain areas of milwaukee, stop signs have become very optional with no regard for speed limits or pedestrians and, other vehicles.  anyone have the numbers on that one?  car jackings have skyrocketed (for one instance)and they have become increasingly more violent if one tries to defend their own property.  the "young-ens" recruited to carry out said acts have no fear of retribution nor incarceration. 

  so by jes-mans reasoning, we should just write checks out and/or buy cars for any of those wandering around with nothing else to do?  pay them for not carrying a piece?  what next?  pay them for going to school? 

  what price can you put on NOT having anyone get raped, killed, having our car stolen??  how much would you pay not to have to go thru a day of any type of violent crime upon you or someone you know? 

and yes clareeza, we do "deserve" to live safely
felz Houston ate uncle boozie's hands

The Sultan

Quote from: rocket ALM surgeon on April 08, 2022, 09:33:13 AM
perception is reality and i don't give a rats posterior what the numbers say, violent crime is up.

LOL.  The crime "eye-test?"
"I am one of those who think the best friend of a nation is he who most faithfully rebukes her for her sins—and he her worst enemy, who, under the specious and popular garb of patriotism, seeks to excuse, palliate, and defend them" - Frederick Douglass

wadesworld

Quote from: rocket ALM surgeon on April 08, 2022, 09:33:13 AM
  hey!!  a voice of reason is a breath of fresh air in this world they have you believe our air is dirty and our water unclean, but i digress...perception is reality and i don't give a rats posterior what the numbers say, violent crime is up.  in certain areas of milwaukee, stop signs have become very optional with no regard for speed limits or pedestrians and, other vehicles.  anyone have the numbers on that one?  car jackings have skyrocketed (for one instance)and they have become increasingly more violent if one tries to defend their own property.  the "young-ens" recruited to carry out said acts have no fear of retribution nor incarceration. 

  so by jes-mans reasoning, we should just write checks out and/or buy cars for any of those wandering around with nothing else to do?  pay them for not carrying a piece?  what next?  pay them for going to school? 

  what price can you put on NOT having anyone get raped, killed, having our car stolen??  how much would you pay not to have to go thru a day of any type of violent crime upon you or someone you know? 

and yes clareeza, we do "deserve" to live safely

So your solution is to lock everyone up, yet you say these people aren't afraid of being locked up.  Seems to suggest that your solution is not effective at all.

Pakuni

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 08, 2022, 09:30:10 AM
Crime is down but an awful lot of cities are breaking records for murders.

I'm sure that has absolutely nothing othing to do with the proliferation of guns.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 08, 2022, 09:30:10 AM
Crime is down but an awful lot of cities are breaking records for murders.

Is that true? Do you have any data that supports that? What I've seen is that there was a small spike during the pandemic that seems to be regressing to the mean already.
Quote from: Goose on January 15, 2023, 08:43:46 PM
TAMU

I do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.


Spotcheck Billy

Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 08, 2022, 09:15:06 AM
Sure, insurance is the answer. Criminals break into your home and steal your stuff?...homeowners insurance. Criminals assault you and put you in the hospital, maybe knock a few teeth out?...medical and dental insurance. Criminals beat you to the point that you're unable to ever work again?...disability insurance. Criminals murder you in cold blood?...life insurance.

Criminals aren't the problem - the problem is the victims are under insured.

FFS, my comment was regarding car break-ins, ALM was staying awake at night worried his Benz would get a broken window.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

Quote from: rocket ALM surgeon on April 08, 2022, 09:33:13 AM
perception is reality and i don't give a rats posterior what the numbers say, violent crime is up.

Glad to know perception is reality. My perception is that violent crime is significantly down from past generations and has leveled after a small spike during the pandemic. So by your logic, that's the reality!

Quote from: rocket ALM surgeon on April 08, 2022, 09:33:13 AM
  so by jes-mans reasoning, we should just write checks out and/or buy cars for any of those wandering around with nothing else to do?  pay them for not carrying a piece?  what next?  pay them for going to school? 

  what price can you put on NOT having anyone get raped, killed, having our car stolen??  how much would you pay not to have to go thru a day of any type of violent crime upon you or someone you know? 

So in one sentence, you criticize someone for wanting to spend money on crime prevention...but the next you say that you can't put a price on preventing crime. Which is it?

You seem to be resistant to the idea that crime can be prevented. Your only solutions involve waiting for a crime to be committed. You don't see a problem there?
Quote from: Goose on January 15, 2023, 08:43:46 PM
TAMU

I do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.


MU82

Quote from: Clarissa on April 08, 2022, 09:34:10 AM
LOL.  The crime "eye-test?"

roQQet's just channeling his inner Giuliani: "Truth isn't truth."

Speaking of criminals who should be locked up to protect society.
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

TSmith34, Inc.

Quote from: rocket ALM surgeon on April 08, 2022, 09:33:13 AM
perception is reality and i don't give a rats posterior what the numbers say
This perfectly encapsulates how your "brain" works.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

Warriors4ever

Perception is reality only because in the past, certain areas had the lion's share of the more serious crime. Now it's moved into areas where people didn't see it before. So they think it's increased because to their perception, it has. I've seen this exact discussion in neighborhood online groups.
I go to my neighborhood beat meetings, so I see the actual numbers.

The Sultan

Quote from: Warriors4ever on April 08, 2022, 11:42:44 AM
Perception is reality only because in the past, certain areas had the lion's share of the more serious crime. Now it's moved into areas where people didn't see it before. So they think it's increased because to their perception, it has. I've seen this exact discussion in neighborhood online groups.
I go to my neighborhood beat meetings, so I see the actual numbers.


No perception is reality because they have been told that's reality.
"I am one of those who think the best friend of a nation is he who most faithfully rebukes her for her sins—and he her worst enemy, who, under the specious and popular garb of patriotism, seeks to excuse, palliate, and defend them" - Frederick Douglass

MU82

"They're gonna take away our guns!"
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

rocket surgeon

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 08, 2022, 10:07:20 AM
This perfectly encapsulates how your "brain" works.

  why don't you go fu#* yourself smith!!  sick and tired of your bullschiff man!!
felz Houston ate uncle boozie's hands

Jockey

I haven't checked this thread in a while. Do I still need to be scared of black people?

Uncle Rico

Quote from: rocket ALM surgeon on April 08, 2022, 05:51:39 PM
  why don't you go fu#* yourself smith!!  sick and tired of your bullschiff man!!

10 of 10

Great work!
Guster is for Lovers

ZiggysFryBoy

Quote from: TSmith34 on April 08, 2022, 10:07:20 AM
This perfectly encapsulates how your "brain" works.
Sunday?

🐷🐷

Lennys Tap

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on April 08, 2022, 09:51:34 AM
Is that true? Do you have any data that supports that? What I've seen is that there was a small spike during the pandemic that seems to be regressing to the mean already.

TAMU

From CNN.com: 10 Of the country's most populous cities set homicide records in 2021

From The Hill:Chicago's 797 homicides in 2021 are the highest in 25 years.

From Fox: At least 16 major US cities set homicide records in 2021.

Lots more information available for anyone interested enough to do a simple Google search.

pacearrow02

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on April 08, 2022, 09:51:34 AM
Is that true? Do you have any data that supports that? What I've seen is that there was a small spike during the pandemic that seems to be regressing to the mean already.

Just a small pandemic blip.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/12-major-us-cities-top-annual-homicide-records/story%3fid=81466453

TAMU, Knower of Ball

#296
Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 08, 2022, 09:36:06 PM
TAMU

From CNN.com: 10 Of the country's most populous cities set homicide records in 2021

From The Hill:Chicago's 797 homicides in 2021 are the highest in 25 years.

From Fox: At least 16 major US cities set homicide records in 2021.

Lots more information available for anyone interested enough to do a simple Google search.

Quote from: pacearrow02 on April 08, 2022, 10:30:26 PM
Just a small pandemic blip.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/12-major-us-cities-top-annual-homicide-records/story%3fid=81466453

I've done the google searches Lenny, I just read more than the headlines and actually look at the data that their reporting on. Yes, several cities have set all time highs in TOTAL homicides. But not homicide rates (maybe some cities have, I'm not personally aware of them). Take Austin, Texas for example. The population of the Austin Metro area in 1984 was 444,800. There were 59 murders that year (previous record) for a rate of 1 murder per 7,539 people. In 2021 the population of Austin was 2,117,000 so with 88 murders that makes a murder rate of 1 murder per 24,057 people, over 3x less.

News outlets are very good at finding scary/exciting/sexy sounding numbers and trumpeting them out. You have to take the extra step of actually understanding what the numbers mean.

Don't get me wrong, homicide rates raising at all is a problematic trend and one we should work to reverse. But catastrophizing it while simultaneously falsely praising the safety of the good old days is not helpful and can be quite problematic and toxic.
Quote from: Goose on January 15, 2023, 08:43:46 PM
TAMU

I do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.


Lennys Tap

#297
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on April 08, 2022, 11:31:01 PM
I've done the google searches Lenny, I just read more than the headlines and actually look at the data that their reporting on. Yes, several cities have set all time highs in TOTAL homicides. But not homicide rates (maybe some cities have, I'm not personally aware of them). Take Austin, Texas for example. The population of the Austin Metro area in 1984 was 444,800. There were 59 murders that year (previous record) for a rate of 1 murder per 7,539 people. In 2021 the population of Austin was 2,117,000 so with 88 murders that makes a murder rate of 1 murder per 24,057 people, over 3x less.

News outlets are very good at finding scary/exciting/sexy sounding numbers and trumpeting them out. You have to take the extra step of actually understanding what the numbers mean.

Don't get me wrong, homicide rates raising at all is a problematic trend and one we should work to reverse. But catastrophizing it while simultaneously falsely praising the safety of the good old days is not helpful and can be quite problematic and toxic.

C'mon, TAMU - you're cherry picking with one (Austin) extremely fast growing city. How many others mentioned fit that profile? Chicago isn't growing but homicides are through the roof. The same is true with many other US cities. Bottom line? You made assumptions that fit what I'm sure is a preferred narrative. They don't square with the data.

You say from "what I've seen, there was a SMALL BLIP during the pandemic that is already reverting to the mean". Where did you see this? What's your source?

TAMU, Knower of Ball

#298
Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 09, 2022, 12:01:44 AM
C'mon, TAMU - you're cherry picking with one (Austin) extremely fast growing city. How many others mentioned fit that profile? Chicago isn't growing but homicides are through the roof. The same is true with many other US cities. Bottom line? You made assumptions that fit what I'm sure is a preferred narrative. They don't square with the data.

You say from "what I've seen, there was a SMALL BLIP during the pandemic that is already reverting to the mean". Where did you see this? What's your source?

No Lenny, I'm really not. I'm being honest and analyzing the data that you presented. You are the one who cherry picked a scary sounding headline that matched your narrative. I picked Austin because one of the articles you mentioned linked to another article focused on the homicide record in Austin. To show I'm telling the truth, I'll do the same exercise with the city you picked out, Chicago.

First, 2021 wasn't a record for total homicides in Chicago, that belongs to 1970, so unless Chicago shrunk (it didn't) it's already going to be a lower homicide rate.
1970: 974 murders for 7,106,000 people = 1 murder for every 7,295 people
2021: 797 murders for 8,877,000 people = 1 murder for every 11,138 people

And again, this isn't to minimize what's happening in Chicago and other cities. Any rise in homicide rate is bad and we should be working to reverse that trend. But the narrative that cities today are a war zone and cities back in the good old days were sunshine and rainbows doesn't help the discussion and in many cases derails it and gets in the way of actual progress.

Honestly, your response is a microcosm of how problematically dualistic our society has become. I presented you with data and rather than analyzing it and countering it with data of your own or a logical argument, you just assumed that I was pulling a fast one and accused me of fudging the numbers. We don't care about the truth anymore, we just care about our political team being correct. No one said it better than Rocket "I don't care what the numbers say, perception is reality". The statement is just profoundly sad
Quote from: Goose on January 15, 2023, 08:43:46 PM
TAMU

I do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.


The Sultan

Lennys just a reads the headline but not the entire article? 

Again, more like Chicos than he would like to admit.
"I am one of those who think the best friend of a nation is he who most faithfully rebukes her for her sins—and he her worst enemy, who, under the specious and popular garb of patriotism, seeks to excuse, palliate, and defend them" - Frederick Douglass

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