Next 3 games

[bilsu]

Both Depaul and St. John's were hurt by covid at start of Big East play. They are better than their records.

[brewcity77]

I understand that much of the decision making is firming up by conference championship time, but it seems that there is still an opportunity to move up (or down) in overall ranking. Depending on where a team is on a seed line, I would think that they could be bumped up/down a line.

Calling Brew. Come in please.

You don't play your way in during Championship Week, but a bad loss can keep you out. If you take a bad loss (Xavier to DePaul last year) and there are bid thieves, that's a dangerous combination.

There's more evidence of teams moving a line or two up the bracket than on the bubble. A conference title can move a team up a line, though more typically it's like 2019, where MU was a 5, lost early, and stayed a 5 while Nova was a 6, won the conference tourney, and stayed a 6.

Championship Week is exciting, but has little impact on the bracket, no matter what the talking heads (that want you watching all those games) say.

[Scoop Snoop]

You don't play your way in during Championship Week, but a bad loss can keep you out. If you take a bad loss (Xavier to DePaul last year) and there are bid thieves, that's a dangerous combination.

There's more evidence of teams moving a line or two up the bracket than on the bubble. A conference title can move a team up a line, though more typically it's like 2019, where MU was a 5, lost early, and stayed a 5 while Nova was a 6, won the conference tourney, and stayed a 6.

Championship Week is exciting, but has little impact on the bracket, no matter what the talking heads (that want you watching all those games) say.

Thanks Brew.

[BM1090]

I think there's a pattern within the Big East that shows where historically the tournament has been a difference maker.

Finishing a full game over .500 is strongly correlated with getting an NCAA a bid, regardless of what happens in New York.  Since realignment, 13 teams finished 1 game over .500 (all of them prior to UConn joining, so all 10-8 in conference.  Nobody finished 11-9 yet).  12 of those teams made the BET, regardless of their performance in the BET (for the record, 7 won at least one game, 5 lost their BET opener). 

However, a .500 record has historically meant that a win the BET is needed to make the NCAA tournament. Since realignment, no Big East team with a .500 record has made into the NCAA field without also winning at least one tournament game.  Furthermore, winning a game in the BET is necessary, but insufficient.  Three .500 teams won their opener, and still missed the NCAA tournament.

All three teams .500 teams that won two BET tournament games made the NCAA tournament

In the data, I included the three teams from 2021 that played an odd number of games and were 1/2 game off a .500 record. (St. Johns and Seton Hall went 10-9, and Providence was 9-10).  Given that each team could have finished .500 had they played all their games, I included them with the .500 teams.  None of the three made the tournament.

Year	Team	Standings	Make NCAA?	At Least One BET win	Notes
2014	Marquette	.500	N	N
2015	Xavier	.500	Y	Y	Won 2 games, lost BET Championship
2016	Creighton	.500	N	N
2017	Xavier	.500	Y	Y	Won 2 games, lost in semis
2018	Butler	.500	Y	Y	Won first game, lost in semis
2018	Marquette	.500	N	Y
2019	Seton Hall	.500	Y	Y	Won 2 games, lost BET Championship
2019	Xavier	.500	N	Y
2019	Creighton	.500	N	N
2019	Georgetown	.500	N	N
2021	St. Johns	.500*	N	N
2021	Seton Hall	.500*	N	Y
2021	Providence	.500*	N	N

So if you're keeping score over the next three games--if we win 2 or 3 to finish 11-8 or 12-7, we're looking good for an NCAA bid regardless of what happens in New York.

If we drop two of the next three, we're likely going to need a win or two in the BET.

We should be fine as long as we win one of the next three. We might drop to a 9 or 10 seed due to overall win/loss record, but there should be enough quality there to get us in with room to spare.  Torvik projects MU as a 7 seed with a 2-1 finish but a 9 with a 1-2 finish. Huge tumble from a protected seed but not close to missing entirely.


If we go 0-3, we're in a lot of trouble even if we end up winning a few in the BET.

[1SE]

Win the next one and we're in. No Q3 or 4 losses and a slew of Q1 wins.

Let's get that next one and then the next two.and make sure we're on the 6 line - huge jump in probability of winning the first round.game moving from 7, 8, 9 or 10 to 6.

[mileskishnish72]

Was playing with the standings trying to visualize how we could get up to fourth. Basically, as far as CRT is concerned, we'd have to win 2 and they would have to lose out. Given that we're on a 2-4 tear, it got me to looking at who is nibbling at our heels. Even if we win 2, it isn't impossible that one of the 7-8 teams (SHU, SJU, and Xav could win out and be sitting at 11-8. In that scenario, they could be tied with MU and CRT. We have the edge against the Hall, and CRT has it on us. If Xav is the team to do it, we'dd need PC to fall behind Nova. MU vs. SJU head-to-head is TBD.

So a Wed. MSG game is not yet definitively ruled out. If we only win one more CRT can't be caught
and we're in the same situation with the others as above, but they'd only have to win 3, and if one of them does win out, we're on in NYC for Wed.

The solution is simple - win out!

[brewcity77]

I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.

[Viper]

I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.

...and Stevie Mitchell is not a one game solution, at least not against CU.

[MUfan12]

I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.

MU just went into their gym and scored 82. We can keep banging on about their PNR defense, but that wasn't the issue Sunday.

If MU doesn't get their own house in order defensively, they'll be playing Wednesday night.

[panda]

MU just went into their gym and scored 82. We can keep banging on about their PNR defense, but that wasn't the issue Sunday.

If MU doesn't get their own house in order defensively, they'll be playing Wednesday night.

They effectively changed the way we play in the half court. Even though Morsell dominated, not letting our facilitator get into the rhythm of the game and thusly play down the stretch, came back to bite us. 

[MUfan12]

I'd argue the fouls took Kolek out of the flow of the game more than Creighton's defense.

Agree to disagree, but I'm not worried about the offense at this point. They'll find ways to score. It's the defense that has killed them this month.

[panda]

I'd argue the fouls took Kolek out of the flow of the game more than Creighton's defense.

Agree to disagree, but I'm not worried about the offense at this point. They'll find ways to score. It's the defense that has killed them this month.

Fair enough-either way he was out of the rhythm of the game and apparently wasn't comfortable enough to play down the stretch 🤷🏻‍♂️

[MU82]

I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.

Eh, we've played two one-possession games against them and gave away both. In the last one, they threw in 10 prayers at the shot-clock buzzer. I'll call it pretty much even-steven, and say we're due!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I feel like Creighton on Thursday is a near certainty. Considering we got them short-handed and coming off a brutal stretch of games and still couldn't beat them Sunday, I don't like our chances in that one. Their pick and roll defense is too good. Any team that can render Kolek unplayable is going to be tough for us to deal with.

Posted this in another thread, but also relevant here:

Ran through some scenarios using T-Rank's projected scores.  If the favored team wins (obviously won't happen all the way thru), final standings would be as follows:

PC 14-3
Nova 16-4
UCONN 14-5
Marquette 12-7
Creighton 11-8
SJU 10-9
Seton Hall 9-9
Xavier 9-10
Butler 6-14
Depaul 4-16
Gtown 0-20

Worst case scenario SJU wins out including beating MU at home (which isn't impossible vs. CU, @DP, vs. X, @MU), and Creighton wins more than 1 game rest of the way in their gauntlet (@SJU, @PC, vs. UCONN, vs. Hall), I believe MU slides down to the 6 seed at 11-8 losing the three way tie breaker with Creighton and SJU at 0-3.

I believe all other realistic scenarios of MU winning 2/3 we still get the bye.

Moral of story: root for Creighton to beat SJU tonight.  And then in general root against those 2 the rest of the way (not that rooting matters!). Also, if MU just takes care of business and wins the games they're supposed to win (all of them rest of the way), should wrap up the 4 seed and face Creighton Thursday in NYC.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Brew is right that their ability to shut down Kolek makes them a bad matchup...but MUFan12 is correct that Shaka adjusted and found a way to beat their defense handily. It was our defense that was the problem, and has been a problem for the past 4 games. We've only given up 80+ points in 5 games this season, all losses. 3/5 of those have come in the last 4 games and the 4th game was to Georgetown.

[brewcity77]

MU just went into their gym and scored 82. We can keep banging on about their PNR defense, but that wasn't the issue Sunday.

If MU doesn't get their own house in order defensively, they'll be playing Wednesday night.

We had 8 assists on 35 made baskets and our PG played a season low in minutes. They completely changed how our offense functions. They were also missing a starter and playing their 4th game in 9 days, which should have given us even more of an advantage, at full strength and better rested. They're a bad matchup for us.

Can we beat Creighton? Sure. Almost did twice. But I would have much rather seen Xavier or Seton Hall as the lead-in to a rubber match with Providence.

[MU82]

I'm fine with anybody but UConn.

Let's just win these 3 effen games. I think we will.

[willie warrior]

I think we win out.  In fact I would be shocked if we didn't.

Prepare to be electrocuted, Muggsy

[Goose]

I am fine with any team we play in the BE tourney or NCAA.

[MU82]

I am fine with any team we play in the BE tourney or NCAA.

Yeah, I'll amend mine to that too. And it's not like we get a choice!

[rocky_warrior]

Between CRT and the 'Dence I don't even know who our BE foes are anymore.

[GoldenEagles03]

For anyone looking for a little positivity as we head into a little bit of a stressful stretch of MU Hoops I urge you to go back to YouTube and watch the mini series WhoWeAre.

I just watched all 8 episodes (theres another coming out soon) and it was really cool to see how far this team has come since day 1. https://youtu.be/leEMw5KsQNQ

Not only that but it is cool to see this guys having fun off the court as well.  Fun team that has come a long way and deserves the fans full attention the rest of the way.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Between CRT and the 'Dence I don't even know who our BE foes are anymore.

When did Critical Race Theory join the Big East?

[MUfan12]

When did Critical Race Theory join the Big East?

I can't believe no one here attended that school board meeting.

[brewcity77]

When did Critical Race Theory join the Big East?

It's been here all along, as Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Seton Hall, DePaul, Creighton, Xavier, and St. John's all have law schools, which is pretty much the only place it's taught.