Next 3 games

[Dickthedribbler]

I say we beat Butler at Fiserv.

DePaul is playing really well lately and is on the verge of kicking someone's ass and good. If we continue to insist on doing incredibly stupid things at inopportune times at the end of games, we could easily lose.

St. John's a toss up.

[PointWarrior]

Huge Shaka fan, but the team needs to win the next three games (against inferior opponents) and at least one in the BET else:

1) the February Fade crowd will have a field day
2) the January 5-2 gauntlet record appears to be more of a "fart in the wind" with each loss

I say we beat Butler at Fiserv.

DePaul is playing really well lately and is on the verge of kicking someone's ass and good. If we continue to insist on doing incredibly stupid things at inopportune times at the end of games, we could easily lose.

St. John's a toss up.

[MUfan12]

Feels like 1-2. Beat Butler, lose the next two.

Hard to describe how much of a cliff they have fallen off defensively.

[Newsdreams]

Huge Shaka fan, but the team needs to win the next three games (against inferior opponents) and at least one in the BET else:

1) the February Fade crowd will have a field day
2) the January 5-2 gauntlet record appears to be more of a "fart in the wind" with each loss

If we win the next 3 BET no matta.

[MuggsyB]

I think we win out.  In fact I would be shocked if we didn't. 

[Norm]

They way MU is playing they could easily lose all 3 too.

MU needs to regroup and get back to what got them through the gauntlet. Play hard and play for each other.

[PointWarrior]

Yep, they could lose all 3 and it would put them back as a bottom feeder in the BE despite a good run in Jan. 

They way MU is playing they could easily lose all 3 too.

MU needs to regroup and get back to what got them through the gauntlet. Play hard and play for each other.

[MU82]

Huge Shaka fan, but the team needs to win the next three games (against inferior opponents) and at least one in the BET else:

1) the February Fade crowd will have a field day

This is your #1 concern? Who cares what a bunch of interwebs mopes think?

Marquette needs to win because winning always beats losing. 3-0 is not just doable but likely. I almost feel sorry for Butler.

[Goose]

IMO, all that matters is how they do in March. It is a long season and they played a difficult schedule and a ton of intensity for over a month takes a toll. This is a time to get three wins and get as many guys PT as possible.

[jesmu84]

IMO, all that matters is how they do in March. It is a long season and they played a difficult schedule and a ton of intensity for over a month takes a toll. This is a time to get three wins and get as many guys PT as possible.

Everyone else in the league also plays a difficult schedule and a long season with a ton of intensity.

Some of those teams are handling things better at the end of the season than MU

[Daniel]

DePaul has Freeman-Liberty back and they are a nuisance,   Will be a tough game.    Butler.... We should win that one.   St John's is playing well - tough matchup.   We will have our hands full with the last three games.

Need to get back to sharing the ball more, attacking the basket, crashing the boards, and better shot selection.   And our defense needs to be productive. 
Go Marquette!

[Goose]

jesmu

I am not sure who had a tougher Jan schedule, but I will give them a pass for a bit of letdown. Honestly, I am disappointed with the Butler loss, but UConn and Creighton are far from cupcakes on the road. Losing sucks and no one likes it, but I think Shaka has been wiggle room to try different things and lineups over the past few games. Now it is time to clean things up and move onto bigger things in upcoming weeks.

[Scoop Snoop]

I think we win out.  In fact I would be shocked if we didn't.

Agree with your first sentence. Disagree on your second (I think I would be mildly surprised, not shocked). Even without the losses to Creighton and Butler, the here and now of it all is that St. Johns and DePaul have shown that, despite their overall performances/records, they are capable of occasionally playing very solid games.

We no longer have the #4-5 BET seed in our pocket. I would like to see us be the #4-#5 and have a chance for revenge vs. Creighton. Win and play either Nova or Providence. I'm good with that. If we end up #6, we face GT, win, and then... probably UCONN. I'm NOT good with that. Do well in the BET and we reap benefits in NCAAT seeding.

I'll leave it up to Brew to sift through the ramifications of our regular season end, but I think parceling out the next three games, BET and NCAAT for discussion is a mistake.

I will be leaving my house soon and not be back until late afternoon to reply. 

[CountryRoads]

Do well in the BET and we reap benefits in NCAAT seeding.

Don't get me wrong, the BET is one of my favorite sporting events of the year, but I'm not sure conference tournaments really have much impact on the bubble or seeding. As far as the NCAA tournament goes, I'm not sure the games mean much. I think with all of the logistics and constraints required to produce the bracket, Marquette (and most others) will be slotted in their spot on Thursday or Friday before Selection Sunday. I imagine the committee would just scramble or have contingency plans if really crazy things started happening in the conference tournaments.

[MuggsyB]

Agree with your first sentence. Disagree on your second (I think I would be mildly surprised, not shocked). Even without the losses to Creighton and Butler, the here and now of it all is that St. Johns and DePaul have shown that, despite their overall performances/records, they are capable of occasionally playing very solid games.

We no longer have the #4-5 BET seed in our pocket. I would like to see us be the #4-#5 and have a chance for revenge vs. Creighton. Win and play either Nova or Providence. I'm good with that. If we end up #6, we face GT, win, and then... probably UCONN. I'm NOT good with that. Do well in the BET and we reap benefits in NCAAT seeding.

I'll leave it up to Brew to sift through the ramifications of our regular season end, but I think parceling out the next three games, BET and NCAAT for discussion is a mistake.

I will be leaving my house soon and not be back until late afternoon to reply.

I fully expect to win out s-snoop.  There is a zero % chance we lose to Butler at home.  My general take is that we should fear no one in the BET and have lost a number of games because we beat ourselves.  I believe we will learn from this one and get things back on track. 

Now there's no denying yesterday sucked, and there's a lot of blame to go around.  Something that has not been talked about enough are the turns and how they were committed and are correctable. 

Our three primary players that handle the rock cannot commit 13 turns.  And what's most disturbing about them s-snoop is that most were on the dribble and being completely out of control or forcing one on one.  This must be addressed imo.  Part of the problem with Lewis is not recognizing when to pass when the double comes,  or being worried the double is coming and playing too fast.  Slow down and value and control the basketball.  Have to play better fundamental basketball.

[cheebs09]

Don't get me wrong, the BET is one of my favorite sporting events of the year, but I'm not sure conference tournaments really have much impact on the bubble or seeding. As far as the NCAA tournament goes, I'm not sure the games mean much. I think with all of the logistics and constraints required to produce the bracket, Marquette (and most others) will be slotted in their spot on Thursday or Friday before Selection Sunday. I imagine the committee would just scramble or have contingency plans if really crazy things started happening in the conference tournaments.

I think this is pretty accurate. Unless a bubble team gets crazy hot and wins the whole thing, I don't think the Conference Tourneys matter as much as we think.

It sounds like the framework of the bracket is pretty well-established by the time the weekend hits.

[rgoode57]

The last three regular season games are all certainly winnable, but, as has been noted, Butler is playing a lot better recently, DePaul is dangerous, and StJ is a potential problem. If we lose two,  there may not be a tournament spot for us. I don't know the ins and outs of the metrics, but, say we lose two remaining games, a 17-12 overall record and a 10-9 conference record does not exactly scream "tournament team" - especially since there will be surprise teams that have to be accommodated on Selection Sunday.

[GoldenEagles03]

Marquette in February and March have been very difficult to follow since 2013.

This team included. I'm struggling to separate this new group from the past groups even though it should be easy because they are completely unrelated.

Maybe it is because my confidence in the program is still low because of the past few years, but I actually think Butler will beat Marquette on Saturday.   Is Marquette more talented? Yes. But Butler didn't look flustered by anything Marquette threw at them.

Hopefully the home crowd makes a difference!

[MU82]

I actually think Butler will beat Marquette on Saturday.

I actually think you're insane!

Marquette will crush Butler, just as St. John's did a few days ago.

[GoldenEagles03]

I actually think you're insane!

Marquette will crush Butler, just as St. John's did a few days ago.

I hope you're right, though against St. John's, Butler played without Hodges and with an injured Nze.

Also they got Bolden back who can shoot it.

[Scoop Snoop]

I think this is pretty accurate. Unless a bubble team gets crazy hot and wins the whole thing, I don't think the Conference Tourneys matter as much as we think.

It sounds like the framework of the bracket is pretty well-established by the time the weekend hits.

I understand that much of the decision making is firming up by conference championship time, but it seems that there is still an opportunity to move up (or down) in overall ranking. Depending on where a team is on a seed line, I would think that they could be bumped up/down a line.

Calling Brew. Come in please.

[We R Final Four]

I understand that much of the decision making is firming up by conference championship time, but it seems that there is still an opportunity to move up (or down) in overall ranking. Depending on where a team is on a seed line, I would think that they could be bumped up/down a line.

Calling Brew. Come in please.

Paraphrasing from Brew's podcast.......a team is more likely to drop down than move up based upon conference tournament results. That being said......even that doesn't happen much. There is not as much movement as it seems that you may think that there is.

[mileskishnish72]

January MU goes 3-0.
February MU probably goes 1-2.

Hoping they get pissed off and focused after the last one. The first gift to CRT set them on fire. Let's win 7 in a row again. That would pretty well get us off the 7-line.

[Mu8891]

I will say they go 2 - 1.  If they somehow lose to an inferior Butler team, on NMD, in front of a sell out... when
owing them big in a revenge game...
It's time get the life boats.

[The Equalizer]

Paraphrasing from Brew's podcast.......a team is more likely to drop down than move up based upon conference tournament results. That being said......even that doesn't happen much. There is not as much movement as it seems that you may think that there is.

I think there's a pattern within the Big East that shows where historically the tournament has been a difference maker.

Finishing a full game over .500 is strongly correlated with getting an NCAA a bid, regardless of what happens in New York.  Since realignment, 13 teams finished 1 game over .500 (all of them prior to UConn joining, so all 10-8 in conference.  Nobody finished 11-9 yet).  12 of those teams made the BET, regardless of their performance in the BET (for the record, 7 won at least one game, 5 lost their BET opener). 

However, a .500 record has historically meant that a win the BET is needed to make the NCAA tournament. Since realignment, no Big East team with a .500 record has made into the NCAA field without also winning at least one tournament game.  Furthermore, winning a game in the BET is necessary, but insufficient.  Three .500 teams won their opener, and still missed the NCAA tournament.

All three teams .500 teams that won two BET tournament games made the NCAA tournament

In the data, I included the three teams from 2021 that played an odd number of games and were 1/2 game off a .500 record. (St. Johns and Seton Hall went 10-9, and Providence was 9-10).  Given that each team could have finished .500 had they played all their games, I included them with the .500 teams.  None of the three made the tournament.

Year	Team	Standings	Make NCAA?	At Least One BET win	Notes
2014	Marquette	.500	N	N
2015	Xavier	.500	Y	Y	Won 2 games, lost BET Championship
2016	Creighton	.500	N	N
2017	Xavier	.500	Y	Y	Won 2 games, lost in semis
2018	Butler	.500	Y	Y	Won first game, lost in semis
2018	Marquette	.500	N	Y
2019	Seton Hall	.500	Y	Y	Won 2 games, lost BET Championship
2019	Xavier	.500	N	Y
2019	Creighton	.500	N	N
2019	Georgetown	.500	N	N
2021	St. Johns	.500*	N	N
2021	Seton Hall	.500*	N	Y
2021	Providence	.500*	N	N

So if you're keeping score over the next three games--if we win 2 or 3 to finish 11-8 or 12-7, we're looking good for an NCAA bid regardless of what happens in New York.

If we drop two of the next three, we're likely going to need a win or two in the BET.