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Author Topic: Fouling up 3. Again  (Read 2194 times)

tower912

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Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Pakuni

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2022, 08:36:28 PM »
https://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-study-about-fouling-when-up-3/

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/

https://c510383.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/ath/mbasket/images/up3.pdf

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/intentionally-fouling-up-3-points-the-first-comprehensive-cbb-analysis/

Nearly a push.    Statistics show it works slightly better to not foul.     

MU got bit.   

Except that Harvard study (and I believe KenPom's also well) is misleading, in that it includes teams that fouled on three-point shots in the "chose to foul" group. Obviously no one here is suggesting Marquette should have fouled a shooter.
Take away those situations, and foul before the shot is the clear winner.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2022, 08:38:41 PM by Pakuni »

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2022, 08:53:07 PM »
It matters where the ball is in bounded. No brainer foul if they’re 70 feet from the basket.

Sidelines OB is a tough decision as fouling a guy in the process of shooting is a real possibility.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2022, 08:58:26 PM »
Panda and Tower, do us a favor.  Roll over and whisper in Shaka's ear and tell him Scoop still loves him.

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2022, 08:58:46 PM »
It matters where the ball is in bounded. No brainer foul if they’re 70 feet from the basket.

Sidelines OB is a tough decision as fouling a guy in the process of shooting is a real possibility.
You can foul a guy off the ball. Your scenario doesn’t have to foul the potential shooter. A team can take the shooter out of the equation. Not that difficult.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2022, 09:01:30 PM »
You can foul a guy off the ball. Your scenario doesn’t have to foul the potential shooter. A team can take the shooter out of the equation. Not that difficult.

Refs don’t always see/call the obvious foul away from the ball. They’re either not looking at it or they’re not rewarding it.

lostpassword

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2022, 09:03:57 PM »
The problem with those studies/links is that they consider a much broader range of situations than what we saw today (3.3s remaining).

The Kenpom article (1st link) looked at "all possessions at the end of the second half or overtime period where a team trailing by 3 took possession of the ball with between five and 12 seconds left."

The Ezekowitz article (4th link and referenced in 1st link) simply looked at "instances where a team held the ball down three points during their last possession of a period (either the end of the 2nd half or an overtime period".  Time remaining when those possessions started not factored in and that's acknolwedged in the comments below the article by the author.

Shaka went against his own stated philosophy today (foul up 3 under 6s per the Homer post-game).  He was expecting catch-and-shoot without an opportunity to foul without it being on the shot.  It cost him.

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2022, 09:06:34 PM »
Refs don’t always see/call the obvious foul away from the ball. They’re either not looking at it or they’re not rewarding it.
Again…….your reaching.
Alexander was right in the refs field of vision.

lostpassword

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #8 on: January 01, 2022, 09:08:23 PM »
Except that Harvard study (and I believe KenPom's also well) is misleading, in that it includes teams that fouled on three-point shots in the "chose to foul" group. Obviously no one here is suggesting Marquette should have fouled a shooter.
Take away those situations, and foul before the shot is the clear winner.

I think this is incorrect.

Ezekowitz:
I went back using game stories and video (where I could find it) for these eight cases and determined to the best of my ability that four of these cases were intentional, three were not, and one was unclear. To be conservative, I called the unclear case “not-intentional.”

Pomeroy:
Foul-3 represents cases where a team was fouled on a three-pointer and shot three free throws. I’ve broken these out in the table above, but like John, I went back and determined which cases occurred as the result of trying to foul, and which cases occurred when trying to honestly defend.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2022, 09:09:14 PM »
Again…….your reaching.
Alexander was right in the refs field of vision.

Ok so you foul off the ball and the ref calls an intentional foul. Then what?

And I’m not reaching - these are all real possibilities in end of game situations.

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2022, 09:12:56 PM »
Ok so you foul off the ball and the ref calls an intentional foul. Then what?

And I’m not reaching - these are all real possibilities in end of game situations.
Here is an idea……you coach your team to foul…..wait for it…..but not conduct a flagrant foul. It is amazing that this actually happens all the time in college basketball.
How often is the team leading by 3 with 3 seconds to go called for an intentional/flagrant foul??
Extremely rare….you are reaching in all of your scenarios.

Pakuni

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2022, 09:13:18 PM »
I think this is incorrect.

Ezekowitz:
I went back using game stories and video (where I could find it) for these eight cases and determined to the best of my ability that four of these cases were intentional, three were not, and one was unclear. To be conservative, I called the unclear case “not-intentional.”

Pomeroy:
Foul-3 represents cases where a team was fouled on a three-pointer and shot three free throws. I’ve broken these out in the table above, but like John, I went back and determined which cases occurred as the result of trying to foul, and which cases occurred when trying to honestly defend.

What do you think is incorrect?

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2022, 09:20:25 PM »
Here is an idea……you coach your team to foul…..wait for it…..but not conduct a flagrant foul. It is amazing that this actually happens all the time in college basketball.
How often is the team leading by 3 with 3 seconds to go called for an intentional/flagrant foul??
Extremely rare….you are reaching in all of your scenarios.

Trusting a college referee to make the appropriate call is dicey.

Grabbing someone away from the play when the ref knows what you’re doing can lead to an intentional foul.

lostpassword

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2022, 09:29:31 PM »
What do you think is incorrect?

Unless I'm not reading this as intended, this part is incorrect: it includes teams that fouled on three-point shots in the "chose to foul" group

Pomeroy starts with this table:
         W    L   OT   Win%   Cases
Foul    122   5    8   93.3    135
Defend  589   2   75   94.1    666
Foul-3    9   0    4   84.6     13

He then individually analyzed the 13 cases of "fouling the 3 point shooter" and situationally moved them into the foul (3)  vs. defend (10) categories:

         W    L   OT   Win%   Cases
Foul    122   5   11   92.0    138
Defend  598   2   76   93.5    676

...so 3 times of 138 "defend" situations had a mess up and the foul was on a 3 pointer.

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #14 on: January 01, 2022, 09:30:26 PM »
Trusting a college referee to make the appropriate call is dicey.

Grabbing someone away from the play when the ref knows what you’re doing can lead to an intentional foul.
Give it up. You can sprain your ankle getting out of bed in the am……..best to stay in bed that way it can never happen, aina?

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2022, 09:32:05 PM »
Give it up. You can sprain your ankle getting out of bed in the am……..best to stay in bed that way it can never happen, aina?

You’re just ignoring legitimate risks that contradict your opinion.

Aina?

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #16 on: January 01, 2022, 09:34:31 PM »
You’re just ignoring legitimate risks that contradict your opinion.

Aina?
You’re impossible. The thinking you are defending a and promoting cost us a W today.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #17 on: January 01, 2022, 09:35:56 PM »
You’re impossible. The thinking you are defending a and promoting cost us a W today.

Poor shot selection in overtime was much more the culprit than a deep contested three falling.

But ignore the full picture and just focus on one play.

Aina?

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #18 on: January 01, 2022, 09:56:11 PM »
Haha. Overtime? Whatever poor shots that were selected put us in a spot to be up by 3 with 3 seconds left. That team wins 90+% of games in that situation. Continue to make all the excuses you need.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #19 on: January 01, 2022, 10:12:17 PM »
Haha. Overtime? Whatever poor shots that were selected put us in a spot to be up by 3 with 3 seconds left. That team wins 90+% of games in that situation. Continue to make all the excuses you need.

The truth is not an excuse. Aina?

Newsdreams

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2022, 10:12:54 PM »
Poor shot selection in overtime was much more the culprit than a deep contested three falling.

But ignore the full picture and just focus on one play.

Aina?
It wasn't a deep 3 and it was not really contested, a defender from the side not in front of shooter is a bad defended shot, and the "bad" shot selection is what Shaka wants all game long. Shaka wants shooters to be aggressive.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #21 on: January 01, 2022, 10:19:33 PM »
It wasn't a deep 3 and it was not really contested, a defender from the side not in front of shooter is a bad defended shot, and the "bad" shot selection is what Shaka wants all game long. Shaka wants shooters to be aggressive.

I understand the concept and was on board with it, but i'm very quickly falling out of favor with that approach. I was of the mind that we couldn't possibly be this bad from behind the arc and a regression to the mean would come, but I just don't see that happening.

Playing in the midrange with this roster will be our best bet at improving things on the offensive end. Kolek, Morsell and Lewis all are much better players when working inside out. Taking a marginal three pointer instead of a ball fake, getting into the lane or skip pass is just not working. Inside out play will open up things so much more for this team.

MU82

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2022, 10:39:29 PM »
You can foul a guy off the ball. Your scenario doesn’t have to foul the potential shooter. A team can take the shooter out of the equation. Not that difficult.

It's expressly against the rules to foul a guy away from the ball. It's putting a lot of trust in a ref to not call an intentional there. And there was no need to do something that risky in this situation, as there was a perfect opportunity to foul the guy with the ball.

As you know from our past discussions, I am a "take each case on its own merits" guy. In this particular case, I was calling for us to foul, especially as soon as O'Connell put the ball on the floor.

In the end, I'm disappointed but not as outraged as some are. As I said in a different thread, I've noticed lots of coaches not fouling up 3 this season.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

GoldenEagles03

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #23 on: January 02, 2022, 12:36:18 AM »
Haha. Overtime? Whatever poor shots that were selected put us in a spot to be up by 3 with 3 seconds left. That team wins 90+% of games in that situation. Continue to make all the excuses you need.

They played a great 4:30 of overtime.

Lewis took an awful jumpshot up 3 points with 36 left in 1OT and clanked it.  The screen and roll with Kolek and Oso was working so well and they went away from it.

Following that clank by Lewis, O'Connell clanked a 3 of his own and Morsell failed to get the rebound and fouled O'Connell in the process. Brutal sequence and even after all that Marquette still should've won. One of the worst collapses I can recall a Marquette team having.

All a part of learning how to win. A young team has to do stupid things to learn not to do them.
VIOLENCE!

The Lens

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #24 on: January 02, 2022, 12:50:42 AM »
Panda and Tower, do us a favor.  Roll over and whisper in Shaka's ear and tell him Scoop still loves him.

Kings stay king 👑
The Teal Train has left the station and Lens is day drinking in the bar car    ---- Dr. Blackheart

 

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