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Author Topic: Fouling up 3. Again  (Read 2191 times)

tower912

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Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Pakuni

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2022, 08:36:28 PM »
https://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-study-about-fouling-when-up-3/

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/

https://c510383.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/ath/mbasket/images/up3.pdf

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/intentionally-fouling-up-3-points-the-first-comprehensive-cbb-analysis/

Nearly a push.    Statistics show it works slightly better to not foul.     

MU got bit.   

Except that Harvard study (and I believe KenPom's also well) is misleading, in that it includes teams that fouled on three-point shots in the "chose to foul" group. Obviously no one here is suggesting Marquette should have fouled a shooter.
Take away those situations, and foul before the shot is the clear winner.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2022, 08:38:41 PM by Pakuni »

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2022, 08:53:07 PM »
It matters where the ball is in bounded. No brainer foul if they’re 70 feet from the basket.

Sidelines OB is a tough decision as fouling a guy in the process of shooting is a real possibility.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2022, 08:58:26 PM »
Panda and Tower, do us a favor.  Roll over and whisper in Shaka's ear and tell him Scoop still loves him.

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2022, 08:58:46 PM »
It matters where the ball is in bounded. No brainer foul if they’re 70 feet from the basket.

Sidelines OB is a tough decision as fouling a guy in the process of shooting is a real possibility.
You can foul a guy off the ball. Your scenario doesn’t have to foul the potential shooter. A team can take the shooter out of the equation. Not that difficult.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2022, 09:01:30 PM »
You can foul a guy off the ball. Your scenario doesn’t have to foul the potential shooter. A team can take the shooter out of the equation. Not that difficult.

Refs don’t always see/call the obvious foul away from the ball. They’re either not looking at it or they’re not rewarding it.

lostpassword

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2022, 09:03:57 PM »
The problem with those studies/links is that they consider a much broader range of situations than what we saw today (3.3s remaining).

The Kenpom article (1st link) looked at "all possessions at the end of the second half or overtime period where a team trailing by 3 took possession of the ball with between five and 12 seconds left."

The Ezekowitz article (4th link and referenced in 1st link) simply looked at "instances where a team held the ball down three points during their last possession of a period (either the end of the 2nd half or an overtime period".  Time remaining when those possessions started not factored in and that's acknolwedged in the comments below the article by the author.

Shaka went against his own stated philosophy today (foul up 3 under 6s per the Homer post-game).  He was expecting catch-and-shoot without an opportunity to foul without it being on the shot.  It cost him.

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2022, 09:06:34 PM »
Refs don’t always see/call the obvious foul away from the ball. They’re either not looking at it or they’re not rewarding it.
Again…….your reaching.
Alexander was right in the refs field of vision.

lostpassword

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #8 on: January 01, 2022, 09:08:23 PM »
Except that Harvard study (and I believe KenPom's also well) is misleading, in that it includes teams that fouled on three-point shots in the "chose to foul" group. Obviously no one here is suggesting Marquette should have fouled a shooter.
Take away those situations, and foul before the shot is the clear winner.

I think this is incorrect.

Ezekowitz:
I went back using game stories and video (where I could find it) for these eight cases and determined to the best of my ability that four of these cases were intentional, three were not, and one was unclear. To be conservative, I called the unclear case “not-intentional.”

Pomeroy:
Foul-3 represents cases where a team was fouled on a three-pointer and shot three free throws. I’ve broken these out in the table above, but like John, I went back and determined which cases occurred as the result of trying to foul, and which cases occurred when trying to honestly defend.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2022, 09:09:14 PM »
Again…….your reaching.
Alexander was right in the refs field of vision.

Ok so you foul off the ball and the ref calls an intentional foul. Then what?

And I’m not reaching - these are all real possibilities in end of game situations.

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2022, 09:12:56 PM »
Ok so you foul off the ball and the ref calls an intentional foul. Then what?

And I’m not reaching - these are all real possibilities in end of game situations.
Here is an idea……you coach your team to foul…..wait for it…..but not conduct a flagrant foul. It is amazing that this actually happens all the time in college basketball.
How often is the team leading by 3 with 3 seconds to go called for an intentional/flagrant foul??
Extremely rare….you are reaching in all of your scenarios.

Pakuni

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2022, 09:13:18 PM »
I think this is incorrect.

Ezekowitz:
I went back using game stories and video (where I could find it) for these eight cases and determined to the best of my ability that four of these cases were intentional, three were not, and one was unclear. To be conservative, I called the unclear case “not-intentional.”

Pomeroy:
Foul-3 represents cases where a team was fouled on a three-pointer and shot three free throws. I’ve broken these out in the table above, but like John, I went back and determined which cases occurred as the result of trying to foul, and which cases occurred when trying to honestly defend.

What do you think is incorrect?

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2022, 09:20:25 PM »
Here is an idea……you coach your team to foul…..wait for it…..but not conduct a flagrant foul. It is amazing that this actually happens all the time in college basketball.
How often is the team leading by 3 with 3 seconds to go called for an intentional/flagrant foul??
Extremely rare….you are reaching in all of your scenarios.

Trusting a college referee to make the appropriate call is dicey.

Grabbing someone away from the play when the ref knows what you’re doing can lead to an intentional foul.

lostpassword

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2022, 09:29:31 PM »
What do you think is incorrect?

Unless I'm not reading this as intended, this part is incorrect: it includes teams that fouled on three-point shots in the "chose to foul" group

Pomeroy starts with this table:
         W    L   OT   Win%   Cases
Foul    122   5    8   93.3    135
Defend  589   2   75   94.1    666
Foul-3    9   0    4   84.6     13

He then individually analyzed the 13 cases of "fouling the 3 point shooter" and situationally moved them into the foul (3)  vs. defend (10) categories:

         W    L   OT   Win%   Cases
Foul    122   5   11   92.0    138
Defend  598   2   76   93.5    676

...so 3 times of 138 "defend" situations had a mess up and the foul was on a 3 pointer.

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #14 on: January 01, 2022, 09:30:26 PM »
Trusting a college referee to make the appropriate call is dicey.

Grabbing someone away from the play when the ref knows what you’re doing can lead to an intentional foul.
Give it up. You can sprain your ankle getting out of bed in the am……..best to stay in bed that way it can never happen, aina?

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2022, 09:32:05 PM »
Give it up. You can sprain your ankle getting out of bed in the am……..best to stay in bed that way it can never happen, aina?

You’re just ignoring legitimate risks that contradict your opinion.

Aina?

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #16 on: January 01, 2022, 09:34:31 PM »
You’re just ignoring legitimate risks that contradict your opinion.

Aina?
You’re impossible. The thinking you are defending a and promoting cost us a W today.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #17 on: January 01, 2022, 09:35:56 PM »
You’re impossible. The thinking you are defending a and promoting cost us a W today.

Poor shot selection in overtime was much more the culprit than a deep contested three falling.

But ignore the full picture and just focus on one play.

Aina?

We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #18 on: January 01, 2022, 09:56:11 PM »
Haha. Overtime? Whatever poor shots that were selected put us in a spot to be up by 3 with 3 seconds left. That team wins 90+% of games in that situation. Continue to make all the excuses you need.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #19 on: January 01, 2022, 10:12:17 PM »
Haha. Overtime? Whatever poor shots that were selected put us in a spot to be up by 3 with 3 seconds left. That team wins 90+% of games in that situation. Continue to make all the excuses you need.

The truth is not an excuse. Aina?

Newsdreams

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2022, 10:12:54 PM »
Poor shot selection in overtime was much more the culprit than a deep contested three falling.

But ignore the full picture and just focus on one play.

Aina?
It wasn't a deep 3 and it was not really contested, a defender from the side not in front of shooter is a bad defended shot, and the "bad" shot selection is what Shaka wants all game long. Shaka wants shooters to be aggressive.

panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #21 on: January 01, 2022, 10:19:33 PM »
It wasn't a deep 3 and it was not really contested, a defender from the side not in front of shooter is a bad defended shot, and the "bad" shot selection is what Shaka wants all game long. Shaka wants shooters to be aggressive.

I understand the concept and was on board with it, but i'm very quickly falling out of favor with that approach. I was of the mind that we couldn't possibly be this bad from behind the arc and a regression to the mean would come, but I just don't see that happening.

Playing in the midrange with this roster will be our best bet at improving things on the offensive end. Kolek, Morsell and Lewis all are much better players when working inside out. Taking a marginal three pointer instead of a ball fake, getting into the lane or skip pass is just not working. Inside out play will open up things so much more for this team.

MU82

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2022, 10:39:29 PM »
You can foul a guy off the ball. Your scenario doesn’t have to foul the potential shooter. A team can take the shooter out of the equation. Not that difficult.

It's expressly against the rules to foul a guy away from the ball. It's putting a lot of trust in a ref to not call an intentional there. And there was no need to do something that risky in this situation, as there was a perfect opportunity to foul the guy with the ball.

As you know from our past discussions, I am a "take each case on its own merits" guy. In this particular case, I was calling for us to foul, especially as soon as O'Connell put the ball on the floor.

In the end, I'm disappointed but not as outraged as some are. As I said in a different thread, I've noticed lots of coaches not fouling up 3 this season.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

GoldenEagles03

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #23 on: January 02, 2022, 12:36:18 AM »
Haha. Overtime? Whatever poor shots that were selected put us in a spot to be up by 3 with 3 seconds left. That team wins 90+% of games in that situation. Continue to make all the excuses you need.

They played a great 4:30 of overtime.

Lewis took an awful jumpshot up 3 points with 36 left in 1OT and clanked it.  The screen and roll with Kolek and Oso was working so well and they went away from it.

Following that clank by Lewis, O'Connell clanked a 3 of his own and Morsell failed to get the rebound and fouled O'Connell in the process. Brutal sequence and even after all that Marquette still should've won. One of the worst collapses I can recall a Marquette team having.

All a part of learning how to win. A young team has to do stupid things to learn not to do them.
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The Lens

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #24 on: January 02, 2022, 12:50:42 AM »
Panda and Tower, do us a favor.  Roll over and whisper in Shaka's ear and tell him Scoop still loves him.

Kings stay king 👑
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MUHoopsFan2

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #25 on: January 02, 2022, 01:22:18 AM »
They played a great 4:30 of overtime.

Lewis took an awful jumpshot up 3 points with 36 left in 1OT and clanked it.  The screen and roll with Kolek and Oso was working so well and they went away from it.

Following that clank by Lewis, O'Connell clanked a 3 of his own and Morsell failed to get the rebound and fouled O'Connell in the process. Brutal sequence and even after all that Marquette still should've won. One of the worst collapses I can recall a Marquette team having.

All a part of learning how to win. A young team has to do stupid things to learn not to do them.
Lewis doesn't take bad shots on this team.

Kolek won't shoot so he did. He has as good a touch now as any player in the game. You are just saying that because he missed it. That was a good shot. It just did not go in.


MUHoopsFan2

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #26 on: January 02, 2022, 01:29:41 AM »
It's expressly against the rules to foul a guy away from the ball. It's putting a lot of trust in a ref to not call an intentional there. And there was no need to do something that risky in this situation, as there was a perfect opportunity to foul the guy with the ball.

As you know from our past discussions, I am a "take each case on its own merits" guy. In this particular case, I was calling for us to foul, especially as soon as O'Connell put the ball on the floor.

In the end, I'm disappointed but not as outraged as some are. As I said in a different thread, I've noticed lots of coaches not fouling up 3 this season.
It's simply the wrong players were on the floor, they missed fouling TWICE up by 3 late...and why were Prosper and Lewis down in the paint away from the ball on that possession!?

You needed length on that defensive stand to win the game. This was on the coach this time.

Oso, Lewis and Prosper, and Greg should have been in the game and on top guarding the 3 and the guards guarding the paint. The highlights omit the 3 that sent us into the first OT so I do not recall who was on the floor then or if it was out of a timeout.

But forget the rebound or the two points...all 5 guys should have been at the 3pt line and given up the layup in that situation.

MUHoopsFan2

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #27 on: January 02, 2022, 01:34:56 AM »
Haha. Overtime? Whatever poor shots that were selected put us in a spot to be up by 3 with 3 seconds left. That team wins 90+% of games in that situation. Continue to make all the excuses you need.
Exactly...it had nothing to do with bad shots.

But they will need Kolek to be more aggressive shooting the ball. It was that defensive stance that lost it and the players he had on the floor and the positions they were in knowing Creighton is a 3pt shooting team.

He has his longest guys under the basket! FOR WHAT?? As many long-limbed stretch players as he had you put them all up at the 3pt line...have the smaller guys guard the hoop. Who cares about a 2pt basket at that stage.

You had to know they would take the 3pt shot there. They miss, MU wins a great game.

MUHoopsFan2

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #28 on: January 02, 2022, 01:41:39 AM »
You can foul a guy off the ball. Your scenario doesn’t have to foul the potential shooter. A team can take the shooter out of the equation. Not that difficult.
It has NOTHING TO DO with the foul....You all keep bringing up the foul. Forge that. To me, it was about the look you gave them and of the position and the length of the players you had on the floor and where they were!

I said that a thousand times...I cannot find that end of the gameplay of regulation so I can look at it closely. All highlights clipped that play out of the highlights! Why!?

I wanted to know if that was out of a timeout or not when Webster I think the kid's name is, hit that 3 to send it into OT? If it was, the wrong guys were on the floor and out of position for that one possession. Both teams let each other off the hook. But it was a great college game.

That would have been a BIG WIN...


« Last Edit: January 02, 2022, 01:44:32 AM by MUHoopsFan2 »

GoldenEagles03

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #29 on: January 02, 2022, 03:34:10 AM »
Lewis doesn't take bad shots on this team.

Kolek won't shoot so he did. He has as good a touch now as any player in the game. You are just saying that because he missed it. That was a good shot. It just did not go in.

I hope you're kidding. Justin Lewis takes a ton of bad shots. He is shooting 41% from the field. 25% from 3.

He's a great player but he has to be better. He's gonna have to get a whole lot better.
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TAMU Eagle

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #30 on: January 02, 2022, 04:55:29 PM »
I'm not in the you always foul up 3 camp. But when there's 3.3 seconds left,  you should be able to communicate to your team what situation to foul in and what situation not to foul in. Their best three point shooter dribbling away from the basket? You foul every time.

You also make sure your guys are guarding the three point line,  not chasing guys in the post.

It was not THE reason we lost,  but we would of won if Shaka made the right call there.
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And the wisdom to know the difference.

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We R Final Four

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #31 on: January 02, 2022, 05:16:07 PM »
I’ve heard this mentioned on here several times since the game ended. Who was chasing guys in the post?
J Lew was guarding his guy…..and when the ball was inbounded he knew there wasn’t enough time for a pass.

**won’t allow me to add pic of our 4 guys defending the 3 line and J Lew in the lane….because a pass to his man (also on the 3 point line) wasn’t going to happen.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2022, 05:19:27 PM by We R Final Four »

tower912

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #32 on: January 02, 2022, 06:01:18 PM »
One thing that really hasn't been discussed.    The play was reviewed.    Kolek kind of flops.    It was already clear that MU wasn't fouling up to that point, as they had Creighton pinned on the sidelines with less than 4 seconds to play and not going toward the basket.     A lot of moving pieces.    Draw up an in-bounds play in case the call stands.    Set up defensive assignments in case it is reversed.   If there had been more time after the call was reversed, what would have the defensive call have been?
 
 


 
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panda

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #33 on: January 02, 2022, 07:07:10 PM »
Louisville up 3 doesn’t foul and win. Chris Mack = genius.

79Warrior

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #34 on: January 02, 2022, 07:15:08 PM »
Louisville up 3 doesn’t foul and win. Chris Mack = genius.

Yep. Just think if this was the @Creighton game a few years ago when MU scored 5 in last two seconds to tie game. This board would have gone nuts.

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #35 on: January 02, 2022, 07:22:46 PM »
Yep. Just think if this was the @Creighton game a few years ago when MU scored 5 in last two seconds to tie game. This board would have gone nuts.

The Creighton inbounder could have tossed the ball to the Warrior guarding him and they still would have won.
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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #36 on: January 02, 2022, 07:33:04 PM »
Thank you Chartouny for missing your first wide open layup. Play of the game.
With more time on the clock we would have fouled and lost.

wisblue

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #37 on: January 02, 2022, 07:59:02 PM »
I'm not in the you always foul up 3 camp. But when there's 3.3 seconds left,  you should be able to communicate to your team what situation to foul in and what situation not to foul in. Their best three point shooter dribbling away from the basket? You foul every time.

You also make sure your guys are guarding the three point line,  not chasing guys in the post.

It was not THE reason we lost,  but we would of won if Shaka made the right call there.

This has always been my opinion too.

Whether or not to foul up by 3 is heavily dependent on the specific situation, and I’m often in the opposite site of the argument when there is more time left and no timeout to make sure the defense knows what to do.

But yesterday was one where I thought fouling was the right thing to do.

tower912

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #38 on: January 02, 2022, 08:09:18 PM »
Penn St doesn't foul up 3.  IU got two looks.  Genius.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

MU82

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #39 on: January 02, 2022, 09:00:00 PM »
I didn’t see either the Penn State or Louisville situations, and I have no idea if they were even remotely similar to ours. Not that it matters- in OUR situation, Shaka shoulda fouled.

But FWIW, it does seem that fewer coaches are automatically fouling up 3 this season. I hope kenpom or somebody is doing some kind of study on it.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

lostpassword

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #40 on: January 02, 2022, 11:53:31 PM »
Penn St doesn't foul up 3.  IU got two looks.  Genius.

If we can trust the ESPN play by play, here's some context. 

Penn State:
13s left, first 3 taken with 5s

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay/_/gameId/401364356

Louisville:
8s left, 3 taken with 2s.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay/_/gameId/401369900

I find both of these less clear cut than 3.3s compounded by catch-and-dribble vs. catch-and-shoot.  Penn State and Louisville very well made the best decisions today.  That doesn't mean Shaka/MU shouldn't have fouled.

wisblue

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #41 on: January 03, 2022, 06:53:21 AM »
IMHO it is quite different trying to foul up 3 when the other team has possession of the ball with in a live ball situation in the front court with 5 or more seconds left.

In those situations there’s a lot more risk that the guy with the ball can anticipate the foul and draw 3 FTs or, even worse, get fouled while heaving in a desperation shot. And, if you foul too early, there’s enough time for other things to happen.

Sunday to me was a classic opportunity to plan for and execute a foul with only 3 seconds left and little or no risk of committing a shooting foul.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 04:56:44 PM by wisblue »

brewcity77

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #42 on: January 03, 2022, 07:07:01 AM »
The studies I've seen regarding fouling up three looks at giving the foul between 5-12 seconds. At 3.3 it's a no-brainer. Shaka made a mistake. I'm still bullish on the staff and the long term outlook, but that was a mistake and if this team can rally to the bubble, not fouling with 3.3 seconds (which is radically different than 13, 8, or even 5) may be the difference between the NCAA and NIT, or NIT and no postseason at all.
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Jay Bee

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #43 on: January 03, 2022, 10:34:23 AM »
No problem with not fouling as a plan in that situation, but would have told the guys to tackle if someone got loose

I thought Oso had an opportunity to grab long before the shot went up and should have because AO was getting loose

Its DJOver

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #44 on: January 03, 2022, 11:42:46 AM »
I’ve always said that it depends on personnel. We’re still not a good rebounding team and we have no one shooting above 85% from the line ourselves (should the game even get extended that long). Throw in the side OB rather than the full length, and I’m okay with the decision. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. It’s a learning experience, so as long as we learn from it it’s not the end of the world.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #45 on: January 03, 2022, 12:50:29 PM »
I didn’t see either the Penn State or Louisville situations, and I have no idea if they were even remotely similar to ours. Not that it matters- in OUR situation, Shaka shoulda fouled.

But FWIW, it does seem that fewer coaches are automatically fouling up 3 this season. I hope kenpom or somebody is doing some kind of study on it.


Yep. It's not as if every situation is identical. You have to factor location on court, time left at the time of inbound and other things. In our game, Shaka whiffed. So be it. He's still a good coach and I'm happy he's at MU. But he whiffed on that one...

MUINGB

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #46 on: January 03, 2022, 01:26:11 PM »
Thanks MU 82, great information,,,,,,,  end of that discussion.

MU82

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #47 on: January 13, 2022, 11:08:22 PM »
Oregon coach Dana Altman did not foul UCLA up 3 tonight.

Juzang missed a pretty decent look, and Oregon won at Pauley.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

ATWizJr

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #48 on: January 14, 2022, 02:33:21 AM »
Except that Harvard study (and I believe KenPom's also well) is misleading, in that it includes teams that fouled on three-point shots in the "chose to foul" group. Obviously no one here is suggesting Marquette should have fouled a shooter.
Take away those situations, and foul before the shot is the clear winner.

ATWizJr

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #49 on: January 14, 2022, 02:34:12 AM »
Except that Harvard study (and I believe KenPom's also well) is misleading, in that it includes teams that fouled on three-point shots in the "chose to foul" group. Obviously no one here is suggesting Marquette should have fouled a shooter.
Take away those situations, and foul before the shot is the clear winner.
Clearly.

Pakuni

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #50 on: January 14, 2022, 07:14:07 AM »
Oregon coach Dana Altman did not foul UCLA up 3 tonight.

Juzang missed a pretty decent look, and Oregon won at Pauley.

When you're up 3 at the end of the game, chances of winning are always strongly in your favor, regardless of which strategy you use. The question is which strategy maximizes those chances. I would argue that allowing a pretty decent look is not the best strategy.

MU82

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #51 on: January 14, 2022, 07:50:23 AM »
When you're up 3 at the end of the game, chances of winning are always strongly in your favor, regardless of which strategy you use. The question is which strategy maximizes those chances. I would argue that allowing a pretty decent look is not the best strategy.

Fair. And I neither argued any differently nor gave any opinion at all, just said what happened. Had Altman fouled up 3, or had Juzang made the shot, I would have reported either of those outcomes as well.

Opinion: Altman would have been criticized, and rightly so, had Juzang made that shot. It actually was a better look than O'Connell got in the MU-Creighton game -- Juzang had nobody on him -- and Juzang is not only 10x the player O'Connell is, but also a better 3-point shooter.

Also, kudos to Cronin for drawing up a play to get such a good shot for such a good player. I was quite surprised Oregon didn't foul Juzang in the backcourt. Seemed like a good spot to do so.

As I said earlier in the thread ... it seems more coaches are rolling the dice and not fouling this season. I don't know why. I don't even know if it's true because I don't have the data. Just from what I've noticed.

I wish The Athletic or some other sports outlet would do a study on this. I find it to be an extremely interesting topic, one that's often debated, and it's a little surprising that nobody has done a thorough study of it for years.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

bilsu

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Re: Fouling up 3. Again
« Reply #52 on: January 14, 2022, 04:44:43 PM »
Yep. Just think if this was the @Creighton game a few years ago when MU scored 5 in last two seconds to tie game. This board would have gone nuts.
I am pretty sure the board went nuts over that game.