Shaka fails.his first test.

[axaguy]

Going to stop reading/following these threads for my own sanity. Funny how the "coaches" here have all the answers and know everything. I'll bet they couldn't undergo such scrutiny by the public at their own jobs.
Hey, this team is young, learning and fun watching. Some recently past teams appeared dead in the water. We've been in games and still need to learn to "finish."  Both, games and on trips down the floor. We have collectively left tons of points on the floor in the way of I'll advised, chucked threes and blown bunnies within two feet of the basket but we keep playing at both ends of the floor. No NBA wanna bees or big ego guys on this squad as far as I see. A couple of those missed bunnies or made 2s instead of missed threes could have won us a couple more games.
Today's team appears to have an upside, desire to improve and excitement about them... The coach doesn't shoot, pass or rebound. I like what I've seen so far and am NOT discouraged about our position or future. Feel much better than with any of Wojo's teams at this point. I'm not giving up, not even an alumni but season ticket holder, no less. And POSITIVE fan!!! Giving up on YOU guys here, not the team or coach.

[Mu8891]

Panda ... u think that was a 30 footer ?
LOLLLLL ... it's a clean look from just beyond the arc.  Was he wide open ? No, but it's a shot that's made 35 % (?) of the time

And ... BUZZ level success??  No Chance.  None.   I'm happy to wager. 

[The Sultan]

Yep - a closely guarded, off the dribble fade away 30 footer is a great look.

https://twitter.com/ejsilvaBB/status/1477358427202633730?s=20

He most definitely was NOT fading away.  He was moving to the side, but again, no one in front with shoulders square is definitely a good look given the situation.

And the more I look at that, the more maddening it is.  Osa is standing right there, and he just dribbles around him.  Just grab him!!!

EDIT:  Put it this way - if McDermott knew that was the look he would be getting, he would have been thrilled. 

[Mu8891]

Right !!

Terrible!!! Oso had two chances to grab him.  Take the damn foul and take your chances

[DoctorV]

I agree that this one is on the coach, and it's ok to say that.

If Shaka calls a foul on that inbounds play, what are the odds MU wins that game?

I would put it at upwards of 97% if I had to make a guess.

Of course there could be an immediate toss to the basket for 3 free throws, but that's still no guarantee all three are made. There could be a first make and then a miss with a tip back, or there could be two males and a steal on the inbounds.

Definitely some ways to still blow the three point lead but again I'd say you're looking at a very high likelihood of victory if you call a foul there

[4everwarriors]

Der kould also bea a female orr a shemale, hey?

[panda]

Right !!

Terrible!!! Oso had two chances to grab him.  Take the damn foul and take your chances

Or let him shoot a deep guarded three and take your chances.

Foul and you are giving one of the best offensive rebounders in the country in kalkbrenner a chance to win the game.

[tower912]

It wasn't unguarded.   He made a shot.    Kudos.   

[The Sultan]

It wasn't unguarded.   He made a shot.    Kudos.   

Who is saying he was unguarded?  It was a great look given the situation.  And he made MU pay for it.

[panda]

Who is saying he was unguarded?  It was a great look given the situation.  And he made MU pay for it.

It's a low percentage shot no matter what situation it is.

[Pakuni]

It's a low percentage shot no matter what situation it is.

It's much higher percentage than no shot at all.

[Uncle Rico]

Did Davidson choke?

[panda]

It's much higher percentage than no shot at all.

What about an offensive rebound and a shot half a foot from the basket ? What are the percentages on that?

[The Sultan]

It's a low percentage shot no matter what situation it is.

Why do you keep defending a defense that didn't actually work? 

[The Sultan]

What about an offensive rebound and a shot half a foot from the basket ? What are the percentages on that?

Much slimmer than that three pointer. Not even close.

[NolongerWarriors]

How did Creighton get a better look at the game tying shot than MU did trying to win in regulation with more than double the time on the clock?

[panda]

Why do you keep defending a defense that didn't actually work?

I guess I'll take my chances on a career 35% 3 point shooter shooting a closely guarded deep three.

Sometimes coaches make the right decision and it doesn't work out.

[Pakuni]

What about an offensive rebound and a shot half a foot from the basket ? What are the percentages on that?

Way lower.

[Pakuni]

I guess I'll take my chances on a career 35% 3 point shooter shooting a closely guarded deep three.

Sometimes coaches make the right decision and it doesn't work out.

The math says you're woefully wrong. Just like Shaka was.
The odds of 1. Making the first free throw, 2. Successfully missing the second but still catching rim 3 Getting an offensive rebound and 4. Hitting a shot off the rebound in roughly 1.5 seconds are tiny compared to hitting a three point shot with no one in your face.

[panda]

The math says you're woefully wrong. Just like Shaka was.
The odds of 1. Making the first free throw, 2. Successfully missing the second but still catching rim 3 Getting an offensive rebound and 4. Hitting a shot off the rebound in roughly 1.5 seconds are tiny compared to hitting a three point shot with no one in your face.

That's not math genius. Those are just statements.

[CountryRoads]

That's not math genius. Those are just statements.

Make first free throw: 80%
Miss second and hit rim: 100%
Get offensive rebound: 30%
Make the basket: 75%

The chance of all of those occurring is only 18%. I think some of those percentages are generous too, but they are about what oconnell (free throw) and kalkbrenner (put back) shoot.

It was the wrong call to not foul and also some poor execution on MUs part (multiple guys inside arc)

[panda]

Make first free throw: 80%
Miss second and hit rim: 100%
Get offensive rebound: 30%
Make the basket: 75%

The chance of all of those occurring is only 18%. I think some of those percentages are generous too, but they are about what oconnell (free throw) and kalkbrenner (put back) shoot.

It was the wrong call to not foul and also some poor execution on MUs part (multiple guys inside arc)

Looks like you did a ton of research coming up with those percentages.

[mileskishnish72]

Panda, you've picked a strange hill to die on. If you think it really was a long, fadeaway 3, you're delusional. But you for some reason have a strong opinion here. It's true what you said that the odds of making/missing were on MU's side but Pakuni hit the nail on the head on the odds issue.

Shaka ain't gonna be perfect. Face it.

We've already seen some posts about matching his O to his personnel, now we have a lot of people questioning his game coaching. And I'm almost forgetting the posts about how the "press" has led to many easy hoops for MU opponents.

I'm still a Shaka fan. I'm hoping today was a hiccup. But I'm notoriously impatient. So I'll keep rooting and see how things go. Still feel crappy about how hard our guys played only to have a game that was all but won peed away.

[panda]

Yep - wide open. Basically a lay up.

[Pakuni]

That's not math genius. Those are just statements.

Here's your math:
About 10 years ago, the Harvard (University) Sports Analysis Collective reviewed every game from the 2009-10 season for situations in which a team trailing by three had possession at the end of the game. They found 443 such instances.
Of those 443, they found 52 instances in which the leading team fouled to send the other team to the line. Of those 52, the shooting team was able to get an offensive rebound and score only three times, i.e. about 5.7 percent of the time.
Is it your belief that O'Connell had less than 5.7 percent chance of making that basket?

https://deadspin.com/up-three-time-winding-down-do-you-foul-harvard-smart-5621868