More conference realignment talk

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Which begs the question, how much media money could a conference consisting of Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse and UCONN command for their football content alone. My guess would be not much, relatively speaking. UCONN would merely be jumping from one bad football conference ( AAC ) to a worse conference.

Yeah if the Pac 12 remnants can't land a decent deal, this group sure isn't.

[Scoop Snoop]

I found this:

Did you hear the other news? After losing its two marquee programs, the Big 12 will raid the ACC, leaving a void in that league that will obviously be filled by UConn.

OK, that’s just rampant speculation on social media, message boards, even from some media types.

Bottom line, that’s not happening right now. UConn officials scoff at the notion. The school couldn’t be happier to be back in the Big East, and one way it’s showed its gratitude is by agreeing to pay a whopping $30 million exit fee if it were to leave any time within its first six years in the league.

Thanks for posting "this". I thought the exit fee was reduced in fewer years. UCONN was still pursuing FB despite their huge sports deficit, which I think was due primarily to FB. Fortunately, UCONN's financial woes should be enough to at least temporarily put an end to their FB delusions.

[TallTitan34]

Would UConn accept Big 12, Power Five invitation? Athletic director calls it 'complicated' question

https://www.ctinsider.com/sports/uconn/article/david-benedict-big-east-big-12-18104155.php

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Would UConn accept Big 12, Power Five invitation? Athletic director calls it 'complicated' question

https://www.ctinsider.com/sports/uconn/article/david-benedict-big-east-big-12-18104155.php

That is a brutal decision for that athletic director. Either choice you make could look really foolish in five years or so.

[Hards Alumni]

That is a brutal decision for that athletic director. Either choice you make could look really foolish in five years or so.

And that is exactly why you give a non answer if you're him.

[DFW HOYA]

Would UConn accept Big 12, Power Five invitation? Athletic director calls it 'complicated' question

Big 12? No, but realistically the Big 12 have better candidates.
ACC with a GOR? No, because it merely makes them BC.
ACC after the seven other schools leave? Maybe.

Largely undiscussed: its football stadium is falling apart.

https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/hartford/rentschler-field-repairs-would-cost-millions-of-dollars/

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Big 12? No, but realistically the Big 12 have better candidates.
ACC with a GOR? No, because it merely makes them BC.
ACC after the seven other schools leave? Maybe.

Largely undiscussed: its football stadium is falling apart.

https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/hartford/rentschler-field-repairs-would-cost-millions-of-dollars/

Hart said renovations go beyond UConn’s gamedays. The stadium hosts 100 events each year outside of football matches.

Matches???

[Oldgym]

Matches???

fútbol

[dgies9156]

Well, I've said it before in this thread:

Val needs to put on a party dress and work the country clubs down in Durham and Winston-Salem. It would be really nice to get Duke and Wake in the BEast.

Both of their football programs suck and unlike Vanderbilt, they're not likely be in the SEC/Big Ten conferences.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/college-football/conference-realignment-rumors-7-acc-schools-reportedly-looking-into-breaking-from-media-rights-agreement/

[The Lens]

I'm not buying this Duke on the outside looking in thing.  We're going to discover that something like 10 votes can dissolve the league and void the GOR and that will give Duke leverage to attach at the hip with UNC.  Their brand won't be left behind.

[DFW HOYA]

Hart said renovations go beyond UConn’s gamedays. The stadium hosts 100 events each year outside of football matches.

Currently, only one non-UConn event is being promoted there through October.

https://www.rentschlerfield.com/events

[The Equalizer]

Largely undiscussed: its football stadium is falling apart.

https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/hartford/rentschler-field-repairs-would-cost-millions-of-dollars/

"Falling apart" might be a bit of an exaggeration. It sounds like normal wear and tear and deferred maintenance on a 20-year-old facilit, and regardless of D1 football, UConn is going to spend regardless. Nobody's suggesting a $100 million stadium is about to be demolished.

 

Big 12? No, but realistically the Big 12 have better candidates.
ACC with a GOR? No, because it merely makes them BC.
ACC after the seven other schools leave? Maybe.

I think the B12 could be a more attractive idea than you allow.

The probelm with UConn's basketball problem prior to rejoining the Big East was not a loss of traditional rivals--it was that recruiting suffered as recruits were concerned about not playing enough highly visiblie, highly ranked programs. 

The B12 isn't an unattractive home while the American was toxic to top-level recruits.  The B12 provides a competitive field that is no worse than the Big East.

[The Lens]

Geographic rivals matter to UConn. 

[Coleman]

Well, I've said it before in this thread:

Val needs to put on a party dress and work the country clubs down in Durham and Winston-Salem. It would be really nice to get Duke and Wake in the BEast.

Both of their football programs suck and unlike Vanderbilt, they're not likely be in the SEC/Big Ten conferences.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/college-football/conference-realignment-rumors-7-acc-schools-reportedly-looking-into-breaking-from-media-rights-agreement/

What happens to football? Independents like UConn?

[Coleman]

Well, I've said it before in this thread:

Val needs to put on a party dress and work the country clubs down in Durham and Winston-Salem. It would be really nice to get Duke and Wake in the BEast.

Both of their football programs suck and unlike Vanderbilt, they're not likely be in the SEC/Big Ten conferences.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/college-football/conference-realignment-rumors-7-acc-schools-reportedly-looking-into-breaking-from-media-rights-agreement/

I agree with this comment on the article:

"UNC, FSU, Clemson, and UVA can be pretty sure of making the SEC or B1G.

Miami, GT, VT, Duke, and NC State could potentially get accepted to one of them, if not they will have a place in the Big 12 and make more money.

Louisville and Pitt could also be pretty sure of a Big 12 invite.

Thats theoretically enough to end the conference. Sorry Syracuse, Wake, and BC"

I don't think Duke is going to end up in the Big East. BC and Wake? Could happen. Syracuse is less likely but possible.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I follow Matt Brown who writes "Extra Points" about the business of college athletics, and here is a part of what he had to say about UConn:

"Moving to the Big 12 would likely mean a jump in over $20 million a year in TV money, and potentially more in multimedia rights. It would also mean an increase in costs…not just in travel (substantial), but in new hires, especially on the football side. Whether or not it would be “profitable” or not is probably impossible to answer with the data that folks like you and I have offhand.

The biggest reason for that spike in revenue will come from football…and even with $20 million more, it’s hard to see how UConn football would have a pathway toward regular bowl bids. The team scratched and clawed to a 6-6 regular season record, thanks to wins over a Liberty team that had given up, UMass, FIU, Central Connecticut State, Fresno…and Boston College. The team had four wins, combined, over their other previous three seasons.

As an independent, operating in a highly limited recruiting territory, UConn can schedule games of local interest and similar competitive level, and getting to six wins on a somewhat regular basis is possible. In a world where they need to play TCU, Oklahoma State, BYU and Texas Tech every year? That might be impossible.

The UConn move to the Big East has been wildly celebrated by fans, and honestly, by many in the industry. It’s allowed UConn to play regional opponents their fans care about and helped the department focus on what they really care about (kicking ass in basketball). The Big 12 is an elite basketball conference too…but it is full of schools that UConn has no shared history or identity with.

Is that worth the money? How will fans react if, after all of these years and battles, they go back to playing UCF every year?"


He also tweeted that this might be the only case where it makes sense for a school to turn down a P5 invite.

[brewcity77]

Good stuff. UConn jumping also means predicting the future. Say they jump and net $8M per year of that $20M after added costs and expenses. That's strictly a guess, no research, just for thought experiment purposes.

So $8M/year means with their $30M Big East buyout, they don't really start to see the profits until year 5. Where will we be in 5 years? Might the SEC & B10 decide to go to 20 programs each? If so, is half of the Big 12 changing again at that point? Might UConn be left in the cold a second time, in a football conference they aren't competitive in with teams from the Carolinas, Texas, Utah, and Florida, among others?

Seems like a big gamble with a very real possibility of UConn having 2015 deja vu.

[dgies9156]

I agree with this comment on the article:

"UNC, FSU, Clemson, and UVA can be pretty sure of making the SEC or B1G.

Miami, GT, VT, Duke, and NC State could potentially get accepted to one of them, if not they will have a place in the Big 12 and make more money.

Louisville and Pitt could also be pretty sure of a Big 12 invite.

Thats theoretically enough to end the conference. Sorry Syracuse, Wake, and BC"

I don't think Duke is going to end up in the Big East. BC and Wake? Could happen. Syracuse is less likely but possible.

UNC, Clemson, Fla State and Miami will end up in the SEC.

Virginia and maybe Notre Dame will be in the BIG. I still believe this.

Louisville, Syracuse, NC State and Va Tech will be in the Big 12.

Everyone else is toast. Their football won't get them an invitation to the Vanderbilt Invitational Tournament, much less t5o a P5 conference. About the only exception could be Boston College, but I see them in the AAC or C-USA.

That leaves Wake and Duke. Hello Big East!

[brewcity77]

Why would the Big 12 want Syracuse? Their football has been to 2 bowl games in the last decade, they haven't been in a post-December bowl game in 25 years, and their basketball is rapidly losing relevance.

No one will want that travel and none of their programs are good enough to demand inclusion. Their best case scenario feels like following UConn, but going to the American or some other mediocre conference feels most likely. They've lost their cachet.

[DFW HOYA]

The probelm with UConn's basketball problem prior to rejoining the Big East was not a loss of traditional rivals--it was that recruiting suffered as recruits were concerned about not playing enough highly visiblie, highly ranked programs. 

The B12 isn't an unattractive home while the American was toxic to top-level recruits.  The B12 provides a competitive field that is no worse than the Big East.

UConn in the Big 12 is Boston College. They will lose the Eastern recruiting edge and subject their fans to divisional games with the likes of UCF, Houston, Iowa State, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State.

On the other hand, very few Big East schools have options. I can't think of any conference who would extend Georgetown a lifeline if it came to that. CAA, maybe?

[Coleman]

UNC, Clemson, Fla State and Miami will end up in the SEC.

Virginia and maybe Notre Dame will be in the BIG. I still believe this.

Louisville, Syracuse, NC State and Va Tech will be in the Big 12.

Everyone else is toast. Their football won't get them an invitation to the Vanderbilt Invitational Tournament, much less t5o a P5 conference. About the only exception could be Boston College, but I see them in the AAC or C-USA.

That leaves Wake and Duke. Hello Big East!

Duke won't be left behind. It is too good of a brand and academic institution. I don't know where they will land, but it won't be the Big East.

I still maintain Wake and BC are the most likely to land in the Big East.

[The Equalizer]

UConn in the Big 12 is Boston College. They will lose the Eastern recruiting edge and subject their fans to divisional games with the likes of UCF, Houston, Iowa State, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State.

BC in the Big East is DePaul.  With five national championships and a long track record of success, UConn is not BC in any major conference.

Recruiting at a program like UConn is not regional based--it's quality of competition and TV visibility based.  Look at this year's incoming class for UConn  Only one of five players is from Big East country.  Two from Virgina (ACC land), one from Washington State (Pac 12 territory), one from Georgia (SEC domain).  Only one from New York.  Some local recruiting edge there.

Frankly, UConn lost their recruiting edge because a) Kevin Ollie and b) the American isn't filled with marquee programs and highly visible TV coverage.  Top players don't mind traveling out of region to Kansas and Baylor when every game is on a major network. They won't get excited about road trips to East Carolina or Tulsa or finding that most games can't be seen back home. 

Just look at MU's roster.  We have guys from Texas, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Arizona, New Zealand, Montreal.  Would you say that we've lost our "Midwest recruiting edge?"  Or is it simply that location doesn't matter.

Bottom line is that the Big East passes the smell test for quality competition as does the B12.  The American doesn't.  If you're a top-level prospect coming out of IMG or Montverde or

[WhiteTrash]

Duke won't be left behind. It is too good of a brand and academic institution. I don't know where they will land, but it won't be the Big East.

I still maintain Wake and BC are the most likely to land in the Big East.

My gut reaction is you are correct about Duke. But I have been surprised in the past about this stuff and the fact that Duke is a non-factor in football is very relevant.   

[WhiteTrash]

I just heard a reporter on the radio, who is at the ACC meetings, who said that some of the ACC ADs refused to sign "a letter of solidarity".  Ouch!

[DFW HOYA]

BC in the Big East is DePaul.  With five national championships and a long track record of success, UConn is not BC in any major conference.

Not competitively, but culturally. BC has nothing in common with Clemson, with NC State, with Georgia Tech. The Tomahawk Chop  and The Tiger Rag is foreign to people in Boston who ride the T and who think winter is for hockey, not basketball.  So to with UConn in the AAC...er, Big 12. What do their fans share with Iowa State, UCF, or now BYU? When Texas Tech fans say "Guns Up!" it's a sign of welcome. Do that in Hartford and someone's calling 911.

Another example: Maryland in the Big 10. Does anyone care in Madison or Champaign when the Terrapins come to town? Maryland football attendance has actually decreased since joining the B10--an announced average of 39,848 a game last season, its lowest in 42 years. Maryland will make money but they will never be nationally competitive anymore: that's the Faustian bargain of these moves.