More conference realignment talk

[The Sultan]

I think it will stop (at the levels that matter) in the next 15-20 years I think. SEC and B1G will hit their saturation points and no one will be able to touch them. I think the B12 will settle in as the third power conference and will also reach saturation. Big East will be the fourth power conference in basketball. ACC/P12 will either not exist or be AAC/MWC level. Lower levels will continue to realign but few will notice.

Big question for the BEast will be if the SEC/B1G/B12 decide to start taking on basketball only schools. If they do, BEast will be gowne.

I think the next big issue is going to come up when the ACC grant of rights expires in 2036.  Even prior to then, ACC schools are going to see the relative GOR cost decrease the closer they get to 2036.

[Herman Cain]

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2023/07/26/colorado-nearing-move-to-big-12

[WhiteTrash]

I think the next big issue is going to come up when the ACC grant of rights expires in 2036.  Even prior to then, ACC schools are going to see the relative GOR cost decrease the closer they get to 2036.

The ACC is very unstable. Seems like some school don't like the ACC, some schools don't like other schools and distrust all around. Not the best recipe for a stable future. 

[forgetful]

Oregon to Big 12??

If there is an Oregon move, I'd bet on it being to the Big10.

Oregon and its Nike ties are a reasonably valuable asset and one the Big10 has looked at. If they thought it might be imminent that Oregon moves to the Big12, they may jump at them now.

[The Sultan]

If there is an Oregon move, I'd bet on it being to the Big10.

Oregon and its Nike ties are a reasonably valuable asset and one the Big10 has looked at. If they thought it might be imminent that Oregon moves to the Big12, they may jump at them now.

Oregon is valuable, but are they valuable enough to increase everyone's piece of the pie?

[muwarrior69]

The ACC is very unstable. Seems like some school don't like the ACC, some schools don't like other schools and distrust all around. Not the best recipe for a stable future.

Karma!

[muwarrior69]

I think it will stop (at the levels that matter) in the next 15-20 years I think. SEC and B1G will hit their saturation points and no one will be able to touch them. I think the B12 will settle in as the third power conference and will also reach saturation. Big East will be the fourth power conference in basketball. ACC/P12 will either not exist or be AAC/MWC level. Lower levels will continue to realign but few will notice.

Big question for the BEast will be if the SEC/B1G/B12 decide to start taking on basketball only schools. If they do, BEast will be gowne.

If the NCAA tournament is still around, with these leagues dissolving will there be fewer auto bids and more at large bids?

[SaveOD238]

If the NCAA tournament is still around, with these leagues dissolving will there be fewer auto bids and more at large bids?

I doubt we see leagues fully dissolve and give up their auto-bid.  But we might see a VERY watered down Pac12 with schools moving up from D2 or D3 to backfill the WAC/MVC.

[WhiteTrash]

If there is an Oregon move, I'd bet on it being to the Big10.

Oregon and its Nike ties are a reasonably valuable asset and one the Big10 has looked at. If they thought it might be imminent that Oregon moves to the Big12, they may jump at them now.

I 100% agree. Oregon could, would and should go to the B10 if invited. The possible thought processes is the B10 passed on Oregon already and the B10 is holding spots for ACC targets. Oregon may see the B12 as the best fall back option if/when the PAC12 fails and does not want to be left in the MWC if AZ, AZ ST and Utah take the final B12 spots. But who knows?

[forgetful]

Oregon is valuable, but are they valuable enough to increase everyone's piece of the pie?

Depends on if Phil Knight/Nike are willing to make it worth it.

Also, with Colorado leaving, it's hard to believe at least 1 more school won't leave.

That likely leaves the PAC12 inviting San Diego State and SMU. Their market viability isn't looking pretty.

[WhiteTrash]

If this was Colorado leaving the PAC12 of USC, UCLA and a media deal of $30mil per school, nobody would care. CU's absence would not move the needle.

CU leaving at this time is the extremally troubling news. Trying to get a media deal w/o LA teams and now w/o a top 15 market of Denver. Plus trying to nail down Oregon and UW to a GOR. I don't know how any broadcaster can make the PAC9 happy or vice versa.

[DFW HOYA]

Big question for the BEast will be if the SEC/B1G/B12 decide to start taking on basketball only schools. If they do, BEast will be gowne.

Big East is not going anywhere. Besides, with its eclectic mix of 30 sports, disparate funding, and facilities, I couldn't see another conference even considering schools like Georgetown at this point.

[Florida Warrior]

I don't see the point of the Big Ten keeping Northwestern. What's the point anymore? Just boot them out. They can't compete with the larger schools and now with the latest scandal, it will even be tougher. Keeping them around for tradition? That went out the window eons ago when schools like Rutgers got an invite and USC and UCLA bailed the Pac. Same thing with Vanderbilt in the SEC. Are they concerned about overall GPA or something? It's a new world. I don't like it, but schools like Rutgers, NW, Vanderbilt - they just can't compete in those power leagues.

[source?]

I don't see the point of the Big Ten keeping Northwestern. What's the point anymore? Just boot them out. They can't compete with the larger schools and now with the latest scandal, it will even be tougher. Keeping them around for tradition? That went out the window eons ago when schools like Rutgers got an invite and USC and UCLA bailed the Pac. Same thing with Vanderbilt in the SEC. Are they concerned about overall GPA or something? It's a new world. I don't like it, but schools like Rutgers, NW, Vanderbilt - they just can't compete in those power leagues.

As far as I know no conference has a mechanism for expelling members. They're in until they choose not to be.

[DFW HOYA]

I don't see the point of the Big Ten keeping Northwestern. What's the point anymore? Just boot them out. They can't compete with the larger schools and now with the latest scandal, it will even be tougher. Keeping them around for tradition? That went out the window eons ago when schools like Rutgers got an invite and USC and UCLA bailed the Pac. Same thing with Vanderbilt in the SEC. Are they concerned about overall GPA or something? It's a new world. I don't like it, but schools like Rutgers, NW, Vanderbilt - they just can't compete in those power leagues.

Northwestern can certainly compete--more so than, say, Rutgers or even Indiana. It has nine NCAA championships across its sports, and fully funds its athletic programs.

Remember, Northwestern has been to been to the same number of Rose Bowl games as Minnesota and Purdue, and one more than IU. Maryland, Rutgers, and even Colorado have never appeared there.

[muwarrior69]

I doubt we see leagues fully dissolve and give up their auto-bid.  But we might see a VERY watered down Pac12 with schools moving up from D2 or D3 to backfill the WAC/MVC.

Isn't counter productive to have the same number of auto bids and all the schools that are moving to these mega conferences with just one auto bid? Many may not make the cut for an at large bid.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Big East is not going anywhere. Besides, with its eclectic mix of 30 sports, disparate funding, and facilities, I couldn't see another conference even considering schools like Georgetown at this point.

Youre probably right. But you're thinking in terms of right now not what may be in 10, 20, 30 years.  I dont see conferences growing beyond 24 football teams (and even that's a stretch). So once they hit football saturation, will they just stop growing? History says no. I think basketball conferences could be larger than football conferences so one way to grow would be to add basketball only schools.

[The Sultan]

Depends on if Phil Knight/Nike are willing to make it worth it.

Also, with Colorado leaving, it's hard to believe at least 1 more school won't leave.

That likely leaves the PAC12 inviting San Diego State and SMU. Their market viability isn't looking pretty.

I think Phil Knight and Nike could have played a role back in the day, but these are big numbers.

[DFW HOYA]

I think basketball conferences could be larger than football conferences so one way to grow would be to add basketball only schools.

Who is a "basketball-only" school? When your athletic department fields 20, 25, 30 or more sports, those are not insignificant investments.

If the NCAA allowed schools to field a minimum of one sport (e.g., basketball), would Marquette do this?  No.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Who is a "basketball-only" school? When your athletic department fields 20, 25, 30 or more sports, those are not insignificant investments.

If the NCAA allowed schools to field a minimum of one sport (e.g., basketball), would Marquette do this?  No.

A basketball school only school is a commonly used term for schools with a basketball program but no football program. I assume you know this.

Im aware its a significant investment. I chums see a future where the top 3 conferences are willing to make it.  Theres also no guarentee that the rules will be the same in 10-30 years

[pbiflyer]

The Pac-12 trying to keep schools in the conference.

https://twitter.com/BenScottStevens/status/1684697323442503680?s=20

[DFW HOYA]

A basketball school only school is a commonly used term for schools with a basketball program but no football program. I assume you know this.

It also applies to a school where basketball is the only sport a school federates (e.g., joins) in a conference, much as Navy is "football only" in the AAC but has a full collection of other programs elsewhere. There are no schools that I am aware of play only basketball within the confines of one Division I conference and park its other sports elsewhere.

[MU82]

The Athletic is reporting that while the Big 12 is still courting Pac-12 schools, what commissioner Brett Yormark "wants to sell his members on is UConn."

In UConn, Yormark sees something that other Big 12 leaders don't. They think football first and have their doubts that UConn football can become relevant. The recent track record — 27-83 since 2013 — is hard to ignore. They see the success in men's and women's basketball as undeniably attractive, but it's less easy to get them to buy the pitch that UConn adds value for this league, in part because these presidents, chancellors and ADs have spent the past year locked in on trying to land Power 5 football schools.

But Yormark sees an entry point into New York City. He sees a dominant basketball conference and big-time events at Madison Square Garden. He sees a future in which the Big 12 makes more money down the road by decoupling its media rights package and selling its basketball rights separately. Conference sources say he sees a sort of buy-low opportunity here, a bet that the Big 12 investing in UConn over the rest of the decade will drive up the conference's value. For him, there's no hesitation. There's real conviction.

[WhiteTrash]

The Athletic is reporting that while the Big 12 is still courting Pac-12 schools, what commissioner Brett Yormark "wants to sell his members on is UConn."

In UConn, Yormark sees something that other Big 12 leaders don't. They think football first and have their doubts that UConn football can become relevant. The recent track record — 27-83 since 2013 — is hard to ignore. They see the success in men's and women's basketball as undeniably attractive, but it's less easy to get them to buy the pitch that UConn adds value for this league, in part because these presidents, chancellors and ADs have spent the past year locked in on trying to land Power 5 football schools.

But Yormark sees an entry point into New York City. He sees a dominant basketball conference and big-time events at Madison Square Garden. He sees a future in which the Big 12 makes more money down the road by decoupling its media rights package and selling its basketball rights separately. Conference sources say he sees a sort of buy-low opportunity here, a bet that the Big 12 investing in UConn over the rest of the decade will drive up the conference's value. For him, there's no hesitation. There's real conviction.

I can follow the logic. I also know commissioners don't always get what they want, like in the Big10. School presidents make the calls and ADs have the loudest voice in the president's ears.

[The Sultan]

I get what they are thinking, but I just don't think UConn give you that entre to New York. Mostly because their football is so brutal.