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Author Topic: More conference realignment talk  (Read 318292 times)

brewcity77

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2375 on: June 07, 2023, 08:09:21 AM »
And that could be, but I'm not sure BYU, UCF, or Texas Tech want to deal with getting all their non-revenue sports to and from Storrs every year.
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The Lens

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2376 on: June 07, 2023, 08:21:14 AM »
Big 12 leadership seems to be intent on leaking Gonzaga + UConn news.  I think. they are trying to apply some heat to Utah, Colorado, SDSU etc.
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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2377 on: June 07, 2023, 08:33:11 AM »
My guess is that when TAMU means "basketball only" he means "everything but football."  I could be wrong though but that's how I took it.

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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2378 on: June 07, 2023, 08:34:21 AM »
... and when all this realignment sorts itself out and they create their own basketball tournament UCONN hoops will remain relevant while the NCAA fades away.

I doubt that happens but it is a possibility which is why joining the B12 offers some security
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2379 on: June 07, 2023, 08:36:13 AM »
Do you think if the Big XII were to do this, they would stop at 1 school?

I think they would start with UConn and Gonzaga, see how it goes, then if it's successful,  add more.  I think MU would get invited in that second round

Big 12 leadership seems to be intent on leaking Gonzaga + UConn news.  I think. they are trying to apply some heat to Utah, Colorado, SDSU etc.

But i do think this is what's happening now
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Scoop Snoop

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2380 on: June 07, 2023, 09:34:30 AM »
... and when all this realignment sorts itself out and they create their own basketball tournament UCONN hoops will remain relevant while the NCAA fades away.

Really doubt that happens. Possible, but highly improbable in my opinion. March Madness appeals to the public the way it is structured, and potential Cinderella teams are an essential part of it.

Agree with others that Yormark is playing a game of poker and using UCONN. Time will tell. If offered, UCONN is gone.

While it is naive to believe that the other 10 BE schools would not consider an offer from a major conference as decisions are sometimes based only upon Big Bucks, at least we (the other 10) do not have to deal with state government officials pushing their own agenda. I think this was a large part of UCONN FB trying to become one of the Big Boys. Years ago, I saw VCU successfully fight off state legislators who were pushing hard for VCU to have a FB team.
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MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2381 on: June 07, 2023, 10:10:51 AM »
This

But also sort of this. I don't think Yormak thinks it will be more dominant than football,  but rather recognizes that they will always be a distant 3rd in football and thinks he can close the gap some by being dominant in basketball.

If UConn is added, i think it is as a basketball only school

I don't think UConn accepts in this case unless they offer some ND type of deal of (5) guaranteed football games a year or something like that and the $$$s work. 

Hards Alumni

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2382 on: June 07, 2023, 10:13:50 AM »
And that could be, but I'm not sure BYU, UCF, or Texas Tech want to deal with getting all their non-revenue sports to and from Storrs every year.

With all the new cash from those deals each of those schools would have no issues financially.

WhiteTrash

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2383 on: June 07, 2023, 10:16:43 AM »
I don't think UConn accepts in this case unless they offer some ND type of deal of (5) guaranteed football games a year or something like that and the $$$s work.
That will never happen. ND was forced to play ACC teams in football, your scenario is the mirror opposite. I can never see the Big XII being forced to surrender football games to get UCONN basketball.

Tyler COLEk

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2384 on: June 07, 2023, 10:17:44 AM »
If Big 12 is only interested in UConn as a basketball-only (or non-football) member, wouldn’t that destroy UConn’s financial incentive to join? That’s what I’m not getting. Optimistically, maybe they’d make $5-10 million more annually than what they’re pulling in now. Is that really worth a $30+ million exit fee and millions more forfeited in tournament shares? Plus the risk of future realignment leaving them high and dry (again)?

Not to mention the additional annual cash coming to Big East members with the new media rights deal soon.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2023, 10:23:37 AM by Tyler COLEk »

Shooter McGavin

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2385 on: June 07, 2023, 10:19:21 AM »
I don't think UConn accepts in this case unless they offer some ND type of deal of (5) guaranteed football games a year or something like that and the $$$s work.

Agreed.  Hopefully the new Big East deal will be projected to be as much as the scraps they’d be willing to give UConn and Gonzaga for basketball only.  Each Big 12 football school making $40 million and UConn gets $4 million for example?  That wouldn’t do a ton for UConn.

I think football would have to be part of the deal for it to make sense.

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2386 on: June 07, 2023, 05:47:35 PM »
If Big 12 is only interested in UConn as a basketball-only (or non-football) member, wouldn’t that destroy UConn’s financial incentive to join? That’s what I’m not getting. Optimistically, maybe they’d make $5-10 million more annually than what they’re pulling in now. Is that really worth a $30+ million exit fee and millions more forfeited in tournament shares? Plus the risk of future realignment leaving them high and dry (again)?

Not to mention the additional annual cash coming to Big East members with the new media rights deal soon.

It would definitely depend on money. I don't know what UConn could make per year in the B12 with just basketball. If it is $5-10 million more a year than what they could earn in the Big East's new media rights deal, I think they 100% would go for that. They would pay off the exit fee in 3 to 6 years and then be making $5-10 million more per year from then on. They'd lose two years worth of tournament credits but keep in mind those are split amongst the conference, so it's not as large of a number as you might think. Maybe make it 5-8 years to recoup their losses before they start making 5-10 million more a year in perpetuity.

The bolded is where I think you might be wrong. I think the B12 is more stable moving forward than the Big East is. The only two conferences powerful enough to pull from the B12 are the SEC and B1G. They are both already likely approaching their saturation points and will likely only be able to poach a few more schools each. Looking at what's out there, I think the likely targets for their next round of realignment all come from the ACC and P12. Maybe one or two schools in the B12 could be poached but their properties simply aren't as valuable as the best remaining properties in the P12 and ACC. So if the B1G and SEC fill up on ACC/P12 teams and reach saturation, I don't think the B12 has to worry about realignment anymore.

The Big East on the other hand is really only safe because the future P3 (SEC, B1G, and B12) have never targeted basketball only schools before. What if that changed? We are already hearing rumblings of the B12 targeting Gonzaga and whispers of them targeting schools like Villanova, Marquette, Georgetown, and St. John's. What if after the P3 finish carving up the ACC and P12, they decide they don't want there to be a fourth power conference in basketball? They'd have money to burn and having larger basketball conferences is easier than having larger football conferences. I don't think they'd have any issues poaching the BEast's top programs if they wanted to (which is a big if).

This also doesn't even address the (remote IMHO) possibility of the P3 deciding they want to split from the NCAA. Even if that remote possibility happens I think they take along enough basketball schools to field a quality March Madness but that's far from a guarantee. You risk being left in a second tier of college athletics that no one outside of their alumni will pay to watch.

TLDR, it sucks for us fans, but if Marquette (or any other BEast school) gets offered more money to join the B12 (or SEC/B1G), I think they take it and run.
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muwarrior69

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2387 on: June 07, 2023, 07:42:28 PM »
It would definitely depend on money. I don't know what UConn could make per year in the B12 with just basketball. If it is $5-10 million more a year than what they could earn in the Big East's new media rights deal, I think they 100% would go for that. They would pay off the exit fee in 3 to 6 years and then be making $5-10 million more per year from then on. They'd lose two years worth of tournament credits but keep in mind those are split amongst the conference, so it's not as large of a number as you might think. Maybe make it 5-8 years to recoup their losses before they start making 5-10 million more a year in perpetuity.

The bolded is where I think you might be wrong. I think the B12 is more stable moving forward than the Big East is. The only two conferences powerful enough to pull from the B12 are the SEC and B1G. They are both already likely approaching their saturation points and will likely only be able to poach a few more schools each. Looking at what's out there, I think the likely targets for their next round of realignment all come from the ACC and P12. Maybe one or two schools in the B12 could be poached but their properties simply aren't as valuable as the best remaining properties in the P12 and ACC. So if the B1G and SEC fill up on ACC/P12 teams and reach saturation, I don't think the B12 has to worry about realignment anymore.

The Big East on the other hand is really only safe because the future P3 (SEC, B1G, and B12) have never targeted basketball only schools before. What if that changed? We are already hearing rumblings of the B12 targeting Gonzaga and whispers of them targeting schools like Villanova, Marquette, Georgetown, and St. John's. What if after the P3 finish carving up the ACC and P12, they decide they don't want there to be a fourth power conference in basketball? They'd have money to burn and having larger basketball conferences is easier than having larger football conferences. I don't think they'd have any issues poaching the BEast's top programs if they wanted to (which is a big if).

This also doesn't even address the (remote IMHO) possibility of the P3 deciding they want to split from the NCAA. Even if that remote possibility happens I think they take along enough basketball schools to field a quality March Madness but that's far from a guarantee. You risk being left in a second tier of college athletics that no one outside of their alumni will pay to watch.

TLDR, it sucks for us fans, but if Marquette (or any other BEast school) gets offered more money to join the B12 (or SEC/B1G), I think they take it and run.

Back in 50s and 60s the NIT and NCAA were the two major tournaments with the NIT some would argue being the better tournament. To day the NIT is an after thought. I could see the NCAA fading over time. It has pretty much abrogated most of its ruling authority to the individual sports authorities already. The contract for the basketball tournament ends in 2032. Other than that what purpose does the NCAA really serve any more. I'll be in my mid 80s by then so I hope MU can snag a title by then.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2023, 07:44:28 PM by muwarrior69 »

Tyler COLEk

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2388 on: June 07, 2023, 09:04:10 PM »
It would definitely depend on money. I don't know what UConn could make per year in the B12 with just basketball. If it is $5-10 million more a year than what they could earn in the Big East's new media rights deal, I think they 100% would go for that. They would pay off the exit fee in 3 to 6 years and then be making $5-10 million more per year from then on. They'd lose two years worth of tournament credits but keep in mind those are split amongst the conference, so it's not as large of a number as you might think. Maybe make it 5-8 years to recoup their losses before they start making 5-10 million more a year in perpetuity.

The bolded is where I think you might be wrong. I think the B12 is more stable moving forward than the Big East is. The only two conferences powerful enough to pull from the B12 are the SEC and B1G. They are both already likely approaching their saturation points and will likely only be able to poach a few more schools each. Looking at what's out there, I think the likely targets for their next round of realignment all come from the ACC and P12. Maybe one or two schools in the B12 could be poached but their properties simply aren't as valuable as the best remaining properties in the P12 and ACC. So if the B1G and SEC fill up on ACC/P12 teams and reach saturation, I don't think the B12 has to worry about realignment anymore.

The Big East on the other hand is really only safe because the future P3 (SEC, B1G, and B12) have never targeted basketball only schools before. What if that changed? We are already hearing rumblings of the B12 targeting Gonzaga and whispers of them targeting schools like Villanova, Marquette, Georgetown, and St. John's. What if after the P3 finish carving up the ACC and P12, they decide they don't want there to be a fourth power conference in basketball? They'd have money to burn and having larger basketball conferences is easier than having larger football conferences. I don't think they'd have any issues poaching the BEast's top programs if they wanted to (which is a big if).

This also doesn't even address the (remote IMHO) possibility of the P3 deciding they want to split from the NCAA. Even if that remote possibility happens I think they take along enough basketball schools to field a quality March Madness but that's far from a guarantee. You risk being left in a second tier of college athletics that no one outside of their alumni will pay to watch.

TLDR, it sucks for us fans, but if Marquette (or any other BEast school) gets offered more money to join the B12 (or SEC/B1G), I think they take it and run.

Even if UConn were to make $5-10 million more in the B12 as a non-football member, that differential is likely to shrink considerably with the new Big East media deal. And it really seems like $5 million more would be a best case scenario for a non-football invitee. How much are the full football members really going to sacrifice to attract a UConn? My guess would be little to none. But would love to hear from an expert on what’s realistic there.

I think my main disagreement with your reply is in the stability of the Big 12 moving forward. We’ve had nothing approaching stability in the NCAA for decades now. It always feels easy to think this is the time things are finally settled. I personally am not betting on it. I think the Big 12 is already a ragtag group of schools with very little tying them together. Maybe media cash will be enough to keep them together. I’d bet something will break them up within 10-12 years.

But it’s a fair point about the relative stability of the Big East. Perhaps UConn thinks an implosion is relatively imminent — that would help explain this for me. I do hope the Yormark is right about the trajectory of the value of basketball programs. Greater valuation of bball would help stave off a worst case scenario for Marquette.

Scoop Snoop

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2389 on: June 07, 2023, 09:07:52 PM »
Back in 50s and 60s the NIT and NCAA were the two major tournaments with the NIT some would argue being the better tournament. To day the NIT is an after thought. I could see the NCAA fading over time. It has pretty much abrogated most of its ruling authority to the individual sports authorities already. The contract for the basketball tournament ends in 2032. Other than that what purpose does the NCAA really serve any more. I'll be in my mid 80s by then so I hope MU can snag a title by then.

John Gasaway explains the emerging dominance of the NCAA's touney in great detail in his book, Miracles on the Hardwood. I really do not see your analogy at all. The NCAA owns March Madness and it has been a huge success. As I mentioned in another reply to a post by you, many people who do not watch bball during the regular season love the Cinderella factor and the David and Goliath matchups, especially when the Davids win. Do you really believe that March Madness (and the NCAA) will end after 2032? I certainly do not.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2023, 06:02:38 AM by Scoop Snoop »
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Herman Cain

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2390 on: June 07, 2023, 09:33:47 PM »
A lot of interesting analysis in this article about a possible Gonzaga and U Conn move to Big 12.

 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/inside-the-big-12s-pursuit-of-gonzaga-uconn-as-brett-yormark-aims-to-increase-leagues-basketball-dominance/

My guess is ESPN wants this scenario to happen.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2391 on: June 07, 2023, 10:26:54 PM »
Even if UConn were to make $5-10 million more in the B12 as a non-football member, that differential is likely to shrink considerably with the new Big East media deal. And it really seems like $5 million more would be a best case scenario for a non-football invitee. How much are the full football members really going to sacrifice to attract a UConn? My guess would be little to none. But would love to hear from an expert on what’s realistic there.

I said $5-10 million more than what they would make in the new Big East media deal. I have no idea how much the B12 is willing to shell out for a basketball only school but I am fairly certain that they are more likely to overpay for UConn basketball than they are to give UConn football an equal cut of the football pie.

I think my main disagreement with your reply is in the stability of the Big 12 moving forward. We’ve had nothing approaching stability in the NCAA for decades now. It always feels easy to think this is the time things are finally settled. I personally am not betting on it. I think the Big 12 is already a ragtag group of schools with very little tying them together. Maybe media cash will be enough to keep them together. I’d bet something will break them up within 10-12 years.

But what would break the Big 12 up? The only thing that has ever broken up a D1 conference is being poached by a more powerful conference. I can't see the B1G/SEC growing beyond 24 schools each and I think it's more likely they stop at 20. Once they hit that point, it would take something unprecedented to break up the B12.
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Tyler COLEk

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2392 on: June 08, 2023, 01:21:43 AM »
I said $5-10 million more than what they would make in the new Big East media deal. I have no idea how much the B12 is willing to shell out for a basketball only school but I am fairly certain that they are more likely to overpay for UConn basketball than they are to give UConn football an equal cut of the football pie.

But what would break the Big 12 up? The only thing that has ever broken up a D1 conference is being poached by a more powerful conference. I can't see the B1G/SEC growing beyond 24 schools each and I think it's more likely they stop at 20. Once they hit that point, it would take something unprecedented to break up the B12.

Using the $5-10 mil over a future a Big East deal as the theoretical figure, I don’t see any reason for the B12’s football members to be interested. I see even less reason for them to be interested in diluting their football pie by letting the Huskies in as full members.

From UConn’s perspective, I’d predict they’re only interested in full membership. I don’t think the economics of what the Big 12 will offer would work in a non-football deal. All this is to say I bet UConn stays put.

Re: NCAA D1 stability. Of course what drives change is top conferences poaching and bottom conferences losing. But the predictability of which conferences will be the powers in 10-20 years is significantly overrated. Programs change. Media landscapes change. Public preferences change. I get that as conferences coalesce there might be fewer variables, but I wouldn’t at all be confident in predicting SEC, B1G, and B12 as the undisputed powers for decades to come.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2023, 01:23:31 AM by Tyler COLEk »

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2393 on: June 08, 2023, 03:19:57 AM »
$5 to $10 million extra a year would be more than enough for UConn to jump. Especially if there would be a natural place for them to get a football invite down the line should they actually get competitive.

I honestly don’t even think it would be a question.
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21Jumpstreet

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2394 on: June 08, 2023, 06:15:37 AM »
$5 to $10 million extra a year would be more than enough for UConn to jump. Especially if there would be a natural place for them to get a football invite down the line should they actually get competitive.

I honestly don’t even think it would be a question.

You might be right about the money, but who would take just UConn football, even if they become even a little competitive, without the money maker that is UConn bball?

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2395 on: June 08, 2023, 06:47:35 AM »
You might be right about the money, but who would take just UConn football, even if they become even a little competitive, without the money maker that is UConn bball?

Maybe no one. But at least getting in the door to a BCS conference gives you a chance. Way better chance than the BE does.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2396 on: June 08, 2023, 07:19:39 AM »
Using the $5-10 mil over a future a Big East deal as the theoretical figure, I don’t see any reason for the B12’s football members to be interested. I see even less reason for them to be interested in diluting their football pie by letting the Huskies in as full members.

From UConn’s perspective, I’d predict they’re only interested in full membership. I don’t think the economics of what the Big 12 will offer would work in a non-football deal. All this is to say I bet UConn stays put.

Again, I was just responding to your assertion that you didn't think $5-10 million more a year would be enough for UConn to jump. I have no idea if the Big 12 would be willing to offer that or not, I tend to think not. But if they did offer that theoretical number, I think UConn would jump without hesitation.

Re: NCAA D1 stability. Of course what drives change is top conferences poaching and bottom conferences losing. But the predictability of which conferences will be the powers in 10-20 years is significantly overrated. Programs change. Media landscapes change. Public preferences change. I get that as conferences coalesce there might be fewer variables, but I wouldn’t at all be confident in predicting SEC, B1G, and B12 as the undisputed powers for decades to come.

Um...when was the last time the SEC and B1G weren't on top? And when was the last time that the B12, P12, and ACC weren't the next three right below them? Since then, all that has happened is that those five have put even more distance between them and the rest and the SEC/BIG have distance themselves from the other three. Until college sports die or the conference model dies, the SEC and B1G will always be on top. No one is coming to usurp them. There's a little more doubt about the B12 being number 3, but the most obvious places for the B1G and SEC to expand are the ACC and P12. They won't recover by adding MWC and Sun Belt schools to replace what the B1G/SEC are eventually going to take.
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The Lens

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2397 on: June 08, 2023, 07:29:46 AM »
Yormack is running a tier two property that seems to be getting the attention of writers and no one else.

He clearly enjoys the microphone.

He can speculate all he wants on “basketball only” or “basketball specific”.  He has less brands than the PAC 12. They just have some discretion with their blather.

The fact of the matter remains he has the same view of the Big Ten & SEC as we do.  He’s just elected to talk more. If UConn is interested in jumping to his carnival, God Bless ‘em. But they’re just moving sideways.
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Herman Cain

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2398 on: June 08, 2023, 09:56:57 AM »
Had dinner the other night with a big SMU booster. They are furiously trying to lobby for a PAC-12 or Big 12 invite.

Their basic strategy is to keep upping NIL dollars to improve performance on the football  field and basketball court.
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Tyler COLEk

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Re: More conference realignment talk
« Reply #2399 on: June 08, 2023, 10:00:44 AM »
Um...when was the last time the SEC and B1G weren't on top? And when was the last time that the B12, P12, and ACC weren't the next three right below them? Since then, all that has happened is that those five have put even more distance between them and the rest and the SEC/BIG have distance themselves from the other three. Until college sports die or the conference model dies, the SEC and B1G will always be on top. No one is coming to usurp them. There's a little more doubt about the B12 being number 3, but the most obvious places for the B1G and SEC to expand are the ACC and P12. They won't recover by adding MWC and Sun Belt schools to replace what the B1G/SEC are eventually going to take.

You contradicted your central point when getting back to the conference actually under discussion. Truly anything could happen with the Big 12 in the next 5-20 years. That should factor into UConn’s decision.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2023, 10:06:56 AM by Tyler COLEk »