Wojo After Top-15 Wins

[brewcity77]

Marquette under Wojo has now lost the next high-major game they played all 4 times they beat a top-15 team according to kenpom (at the time of the game):

• Jan. 24, 2017 -- #3 Villanova: After the victory, Marquette lost to Providence and four of their next five games.
  
• Dec. 8, 2018 -- #12 Wisconsin: Marquette beat Bucky in OT, then lost their next high-major game at St. John's; they did beat a ranked Buffalo team, but that one was of three buy games they won in that span.
  
• Nov. 13, 2019 -- #9 Purdue: Marquette rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat the Boilermakers, then promptly went out and were drubbed by Bucky.
  
• Dec. 4, 2020 -- #7 Wisconsin: Justin Lewis got the tip-in winner, but after the GB win, Marquette lost to their next HM opponent, UCLA.
  
• Dec. 14, 2020 -- #11 Creighton: Marquette beat two top-15 teams in 10 days, and followed this one with a loss to Seton Hall.

Why can this staff not sustain success? The closest they came was 2019, but that was an incredibly down year for the Big East. Aren't these games they should be winning? Why is it every time we get a massive win, a massive lift, we follow it up by puking all over our shoes?

[Galway Eagle]

What about Providence w/ Ellenson?

[LAZER]

Marquette under Wojo has now lost the next high-major game they played all 4 times they beat a top-15 team according to kenpom (at the time of the game):

• Jan. 24, 2017 -- #3 Villanova: After the victory, Marquette lost to Providence and four of their next five games.
  
• Dec. 8, 2018 -- #12 Wisconsin: Marquette beat Bucky in OT, then lost their next high-major game at St. John's; they did beat a ranked Buffalo team, but that one was of three buy games they won in that span.
  
• Nov. 13, 2019 -- #9 Purdue: Marquette rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat the Boilermakers, then promptly went out and were drubbed by Bucky.
  
• Dec. 4, 2020 -- #7 Wisconsin: Justin Lewis got the tip-in winner, but after the GB win, Marquette lost to their next HM opponent, UCLA.
  
• Dec. 14, 2020 -- #11 Creighton: Marquette beat two top-15 teams in 10 days, and followed this one with a loss to Seton Hall.

Why can this staff not sustain success? The closest they came was 2019, but that was an incredibly down year for the Big East. Aren't these games they should be winning? Why is it every time we get a massive win, a massive lift, we follow it up by puking all over our shoes?

This one doesn’t bother me that much. No doubt an incredibly frustrating game, but hung around and battled back despite off nights for a few guys. Didn’t seem like coaching was the problem.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yeah I was kind of thinking this was how the game was going to look. Ugly. Physical. Against an experienced team.

[brewcity77]

What about Providence w/ Ellenson?

Ranked #33 in kenpom at the time of the game. Finished the season #44. They were massively overranked in the polls because they beat up on a terrible non-con schedule and pulled off one quality win against Arizona.

[Silent Verbal]

That Purdue team Marquette beat also ended up being pretty mediocre. 

[jesmu84]

Didn't we just lose to a team that was preseason ranked above us with a likely POY candidate?

This team is ahead of where I thought they'd be.

Relax

[brewcity77]

Didn't we just lose to a team that was preseason ranked above us with a likely POY candidate?

This team is ahead of where I thought they'd be.

Relax

If this was a one-time thing, I'd be inclined to agree. This is meant to point out the staff has failed to sustain success on the heels of their big wins. Once is chance, twice is coincidence, five times is pretty clearly more than that.

[panda]

Wojo is able to get his guys up for the big one, but his lack of any sort of program identity hinders his teams from growing after big wins. They’re a chameleon team and very easy to game plan for.

[LoudMouth]

I don’t get why Wojo doesn’t tell the guys to make the layups and wide open threes. He really let us down tonight. Poor coaching

[cheebs09]

I don’t get why Wojo doesn’t tell the guys to make the layups and wide open threes. He really let us down tonight. Poor coaching

The way we lose year after year is remarkably consistent. Turnovers and not being able to stop people. It’s tough for me to write off as youth when it’s the same stuff an experienced Wojo team does.

[panda]

I don’t get why Wojo doesn’t tell the guys to make the layups and wide open threes. He really let us down tonight. Poor coaching

Or the offensive sets which are so predictable that they lead to turnovers 20% of possessions...

[Johnny B]

MU ranks 212th in Tuurnovers per game. 

[HutchwasClutch]

MU ranks 212th in Tuurnovers per game. 

Wojo doesn’t care.  If he did they’d improve. But year after year, it’s a recurring issue. And so many unforced, just plain sloppy. Wojo needs to light these guys a$$ up, but it’s just a blank stare after they happen.  So what’s the message to the players? It’s ok to give possessions away. They’re almost never yanked because of a turnover either. No consequence to it happening

[panda]

Wojo doesn’t care.  If he did they’d improve. But year after year, it’s a recurring issue. And so many unforced, just plain sloppy. Wojo needs to light these guys a$$ up, but it’s just a blank stare after they happen.  So what’s the message to the players? It’s ok to give possessions away. They’re almost never yanked because of a turnover either. No consequence to it happening

Maybe he should pop more balloons

[brewcity77]

I don’t get why Wojo doesn’t tell the guys to make the layups and wide open threes. He really let us down tonight. Poor coaching

The turnovers, the wide open looks, and the inefficient player rotations are year-over-year problems. So yes, it's poor coaching.

[BM1090]

Didn't we just lose to a team that was preseason ranked above us with a likely POY candidate?

This team is ahead of where I thought they'd be.

Relax

With this specific team, I agree. This year in isolation I think Wojo has done a fine job. The turnovers being an issue for the 3rd consecutive year is a concern, though.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The turnovers, the wide open looks, and the inefficient player rotations are year-over-year problems. So yes, it's poor coaching.

I wouldn't say turnovers have been a year-over-year problem. While they certainly weren't a strength last year, they weren't a weakness. We had a TO% of 18.6% which was ranked 176th or right in the middle of Division 1. It just seemed like we had an absurd amount of turnovers because we played at such a high tempo. The year before that they were a problem, but the two years before that we were top 100 in TO%.

I don't know how to compare how many wide-open looks we give up to other teams numbers wise, but from my personal eye test, I think we give up less than most. The difference is that wehn we do give up wide open shots, they are three pointers instead of layups. Wojo's defense this season values protecting the paint and we have a tendency to give up the corner three. I think this is mostly freshmen not understanding how to double and cut off passing lanes at the same time. Coaches need to work on that.

Inefficient player rotations were a problem last season. I'm not convinced they are a problem this season.

[jesmu84]

If this was a one-time thing, I'd be inclined to agree. This is meant to point out the staff has failed to sustain success on the heels of their big wins. Once is chance, twice is coincidence, five times is pretty clearly more than that.

Didn't we just beat a top 10 team 2 games after beating a top 10 team? Sure seems like that's what happened

Look, I fully acknowledge the flaws in this team this year.. But they're still playing well and playing better than I thought to this point

[brewcity77]

I wouldn't say turnovers have been a year-over-year problem. While they certainly weren't a strength last year, they weren't a weakness. We had a TO% of 18.6% which was ranked 176th or right in the middle of Division 1. It just seemed like we had an absurd amount of turnovers because we played at such a high tempo. The year before that they were a problem, but the two years before that we were top 100 in TO%.

I disagree. Here are our turnover rankings in Big East play:

2015: 10th
2016: 9th
2017: 4th
2018: 7th
2019: 7th
2020: 6th
2021: 6th (out of 7 teams)

So we've been in the bottom half of the league in turnovers (including this year) 6/7 seasons under Wojo. That's a year-over-year problem.

I don't know how to compare how many wide-open looks we give up to other teams numbers wise, but from my personal eye test, I think we give up less than most. The difference is that wehn we do give up wide open shots, they are three pointers instead of layups. Wojo's defense this season values protecting the paint and we have a tendency to give up the corner three. I think this is mostly freshmen not understanding how to double and cut off passing lanes at the same time. Coaches need to work on that.

The last point is what stands out, and why I have so little faith in this staff. Look at the rather scathing Athletic article that Marquette clearly granted access to. "This defensive mindset that Coach has been trying to inspire guys to have the last few years is finally starting to (translate) to how we play and how we show up on a nightly basis," John says. Seriously? They are just starting to do what the coaches have asked after FOUR YEARS in the program? So what, we should start looking ahead to the 2022-23 or 2023-24 seasons as the ones where we finally break through, assuming everyone sticks around that long?

Inefficient player rotations were a problem last season. I'm not convinced they are a problem this season.

In our last two losses, we saw Justin nailed to the bench against UCLA for the last 9 minutes when he was our most efficient offensive player on the night, whereas last night it was Theo who couldn't get back out there at the end even though he had been doing very well against the SHU bigs (Lewis out there in the final minute with a 31.3 eFG% on the night while Theo was on the bench at 72.2).

For me, we are at the "show me" point with this coaching staff. I'm not going to believe because they pound on cupcakes or even get 1-2 big wins. Show us you can string wins together. Show us you can compete every night. Last night we got outplayed, outworked at home for the better part of 35 minutes before trying to eke out a win with five minutes of effort. We were lucky to even be in that game last night considering how badly we were outplayed from the opening tip.

I'm not going to automatically believe in some mythical defensive improvement when I see the same slow rotations, inadequate efforts to contest shots (the hand-waving in the vague direction of the opponent's chest as they reach the peak of their jump is infuriating), and repeated wide open outside looks. Some of those turnovers, we may as well have put the ball down at half-court for them considering how easy we made it to take it away. And in crunch time, we're watching Wojo ride the cold hand in real time.

For 5-1/2 years, I tried to put faith in this staff. While they showed the occasional flash of inspiration, they could never sustain that. We have seen our program fall from being consistently considered one of the top-20 programs in the country to...what...maybe top-50? Maybe? Yeah, the Wisconsin win was nice, but we followed it up with two lackluster efforts. The entire second half of the Creighton game felt like we were lucky to be ahead as they missed the wide open shots they had been making in the first half but they just happened to run out of time.

I like this team. I like the players. I like the pieces. But I'm wholly uninspired when it comes to expectations because we've repeatedly seen the inability to string together results. I mean...we sometimes wax nostalgic about that 2019 team, but they had exactly one top-50 win in Big East play and still managed to lose the worst league since realignment. I want to get excited, but when I keep seeing the same mistakes in the same clothing, it's tough.

[MU82]

Marquette under Wojo has now lost the next high-major game they played all 4 times they beat a top-15 team according to kenpom (at the time of the game):

• Jan. 24, 2017 -- #3 Villanova: After the victory, Marquette lost to Providence and four of their next five games.
  
• Dec. 8, 2018 -- #12 Wisconsin: Marquette beat Bucky in OT, then lost their next high-major game at St. John's; they did beat a ranked Buffalo team, but that one was of three buy games they won in that span.
  
• Nov. 13, 2019 -- #9 Purdue: Marquette rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat the Boilermakers, then promptly went out and were drubbed by Bucky.
  
• Dec. 4, 2020 -- #7 Wisconsin: Justin Lewis got the tip-in winner, but after the GB win, Marquette lost to their next HM opponent, UCLA.
  
• Dec. 14, 2020 -- #11 Creighton: Marquette beat two top-15 teams in 10 days, and followed this one with a loss to Seton Hall.

Why can this staff not sustain success? The closest they came was 2019, but that was an incredibly down year for the Big East. Aren't these games they should be winning? Why is it every time we get a massive win, a massive lift, we follow it up by puking all over our shoes?

Your opinions are your opinions, and I'm not going to try to change them. Your response to TAMU clearly shows your frustration, which comes out of your love for Marquette hoops as well as your correct observations about the program's failings under Wojo. I am on board with many if not most of those thoughts.

However, I don't think this OP really proves much -- your later comments, especially the response to TAMU, makes your point a lot better.

The OP does a lot of cherry-picking. For example, in 2018, they DID beat a very highly regarded (and ranked) Buffalo team that many thought would get to the S16 or beyond; it shouldn't be dismissed as casually as you dismissed it. They also won 15 of their next 17 games. I think all of us would take 15-2 any time as a "response" to a big win over Madison. To claim what they did after Madison was somehow less than good wasn't one of the stronger points of your Scoop career.

Yes, we lost at Madison after Purdue; we also then won 9 of our next 11, including very good wins over USC, Kansas State and Nova.

And finally, after beating Madison this year, we beat a bunny, lost a road game to a very good UCLA team and then scored an impressive road win over Creighton. I don't think that shows the post-Madison response to be wanting. Again, I think looking at only a one-game sample really doesn't say much about Wojo or anything else; the points you made to TAMU were much stronger.

Heck, there are many who would argue that how a team responds to a big loss is a better barometer of a coach's effectiveness. Maybe Wojo sucks in that regard; I'm too lazy to do the research looking at his entire career. This season, though, I'm certainly happy with the responses after OSU and UCLA ... last season, I was happy with the response after Madison ... and in 2018-19, I was overjoyed with the response after Kansas (but definitely not overjoyed that we couldn't avoid the losing streaks at the end of the last two seasons). By saying all that, I of course am guilty of a little cherry-picking, too.

But I get it. You're frustrated and disappointed and rightly so, and the OP was your way to get into your point -- a point you made very well later in this comment stream.

We Are Marquette!

[HutchwasClutch]

 Look at the rather scathing Athletic article that Marquette clearly granted access to. "This defensive mindset that Coach has been trying to inspire guys to have the last few years is finally starting to (translate) to how we play and how we show up on a nightly basis," John says. Seriously? They are just starting to do what the coaches have asked after FOUR YEARS in the program?

This is an alarming indictment.  Solid coaches do not have issues and need years for their players to buy in!! Thank you Theo for pointing out the utter incompetence you’ve been playing under even though his intent was the opposite.

All the excuses for last nights loss, refs,  youth, etc. are just that.  As Brew has pointed out and supported very well, it is the same issues year after year after year under Wojo.   The team make up doesn’t matter.  It is so clearly problems at the top in execution of many basic things that continue plague this program. 

A change is needed so badly. 

[Its DJOver]

'17 was bad and has been beaten to death here.
'18, K-State and Buff might not have been kenpom top 15 teams, but there were good teams and iirc ended up being Q1 wins (if we're setting arbitrary cut off points, why not go with the one that the committee uses?)
'19 losing to bucky always hurts, but losing first true road game is not just an MU problem.
'20 first true road game again, plus a bad frustrating loss.

Consistency is a problem, yes, but I think it may be slightly overblown here.  If it's back-to-back games like '17 and last night, motivation can be pointed out as a problem, but when the games are three weeks apart (beat bucky Dec 8th 2018, lose to StJ Jan 1st 2019), I think you may be stretching a bit.

[IrwinFletcher]

Marquette under Wojo has now lost the next high-major game they played all 4 times they beat a top-15 team according to kenpom (at the time of the game):

• Jan. 24, 2017 -- #3 Villanova: After the victory, Marquette lost to Providence and four of their next five games.
  
• Dec. 8, 2018 -- #12 Wisconsin: Marquette beat Bucky in OT, then lost their next high-major game at St. John's; they did beat a ranked Buffalo team, but that one was of three buy games they won in that span.
  
• Nov. 13, 2019 -- #9 Purdue: Marquette rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat the Boilermakers, then promptly went out and were drubbed by Bucky.
  
• Dec. 4, 2020 -- #7 Wisconsin: Justin Lewis got the tip-in winner, but after the GB win, Marquette lost to their next HM opponent, UCLA.
  
• Dec. 14, 2020 -- #11 Creighton: Marquette beat two top-15 teams in 10 days, and followed this one with a loss to Seton Hall.

Why can this staff not sustain success? The closest they came was 2019, but that was an incredibly down year for the Big East. Aren't these games they should be winning? Why is it every time we get a massive win, a massive lift, we follow it up by puking all over our shoes?

You can better understand a poster's bias when you do some digging into their posts, and this is a good example.


1 - Upset then #1 Villanova.  Next game they do lose to Providence.  By 1 point.

2 - Beat #12 Bucky.  The "lose their next high major game".  Hmmm.  That "next high major game" came 24 days later against SJU.  And by the way, in between those games, you know, where we didn't keep any momentum?  We won 3 games including a drubbing of then #12 Buffalo.  So two wins vs. #12 teams.

3 - Beating Bucky this year and then going out west for our first road game and losing by 9 to UCLA.

4 - Beating Creighton this year and losing by 7 to SHU.

So I don't know what you mean by "puking all over ourselves" but the examples you gave clearly aren't good ones at all.  Yes, we would like the team to be able to put a string of big wins together (and you omitted and example of where they did), but your point isn't valid based off your examples.

[brewcity77]

But I get it. You're frustrated and disappointed and rightly so, and the OP was your way to get into your point -- a point you made very well later in this comment stream.

We Are Marquette!

The OP was mostly to refer to how we always seem to have a quick come-down after we get the big win. After this week's win over Creighton, yesterday felt inevitable, even though we were at home, with momentum, and have arguably the better talent.

I also feel we spend as much time making excuses such as "we're young" when it's really not true. Our rotation includes three senior starters with 13 years of D1 experience & 10 in the program. We have two guards, one redshirt junior & one sophomore, that spent their entire careers here.

We really only have three newcomers, two of whom came in as top-40 recruits. Per kenpom, our experience is #179 & minute continuity is #161, so right around the middle of the pack, not where we were years ago when the "young" excuse was apt.

But yes, it's disappointment and frustration because we keep seeing this narrative play out and I'm also tired of the Cubs-fanesque way we try to convince ourselves this time will be different or how much better we'll be in a year or two when we've seen no tangible evidence that this staff is capable of making either of those things a reality.