Wojo After Top-15 Wins

[brewcity77]

You can better understand a poster's bias when you do some digging into their posts, and this is a good example.


1 - Upset then #1 Villanova.  Next game they do lose to Providence.  By 1 point.

A team we had never lost to at home and were clearly better than. That was a bad loss.

2 - Beat #12 Bucky.  The "lose their next high major game".  Hmmm.  That "next high major game" came 24 days later against SJU.  And by the way, in between those games, you know, where we didn't keep any momentum?  We won 3 games including a drubbing of then #12 Buffalo.  So two wins vs. #12 teams.

Media rankings rarely reflect actual team quality. Buffalo wasn't ranked that highly in kenpom and was ranked #12 because they beat a massively overrated in the preseason West Virginia team & a mediocre Syracuse team. They were a good mid-major. And this was generally our best response to a big win, but that "best response" was still winning three buy games.

3 - Beating Bucky this year and then going out west for our first road game and losing by 9 to UCLA.

If you're going to build program momentum, those are games you should win. See also...

4 - Beating Creighton this year and losing by 7 to SHU.

...this game, where we were at home with the talent and momentum advantage, and were clearly outplayed for 35 minutes before realizing "oh maybe we should show up now."

So I don't know what you mean by "puking all over ourselves" but the examples you gave clearly aren't good ones at all.  Yes, we would like the team to be able to put a string of big wins together (and you omitted and example of where they did), but your point isn't valid based off your examples.

What top-15 kenpom win did we follow with a string of big wins? Because I went through 7 seasons of data to find others. Unless you can provide something that doesn't seem to be there, maybe better just to accept that Wojo's greatest consistency is following his biggest successes with letdowns.

[Its DJOver]

The OP was mostly to refer to how we always seem to have a quick come-down after we get the big win. After this week's win over Creighton, yesterday felt inevitable, even though we were at home, with momentum, and have arguably the better talent.

Is this true though?  Again, I'm not sure why you picked the arbitrary cut off point of top 15 kenpom, when IMO a more accurate barometer would be the quadrant system that the committee uses.  The 18-19 season was brought up.  We started that season 0-2 in Q1 games and both were extremely frustrating and way worse than last night IMO.  We then rattled off a neutral court win over 23rd ranked kenpom Louisville, 20th ranked kenpom and future B12 champions K-State, 16th ranked kenpom Madison, and 22nd ranked kenpom and 30 game winner Buffalo. A 4-0 stretch of Q1 wins, and there was really about 6 weeks between the 2nd half of Kansas, and StJ where we were playing good, and consistently good ball.  How that season ended is another question that has been discussed before, and I'm sure again, but if you are trying to make the argument that we can't get up for consecutive big games, that sstretch is a poor example IMO. 

[brewcity77]

Is this true though?  Again, I'm not sure why you picked the arbitrary cut off point of top 15 kenpom, when IMO a more accurate barometer would be the quadrant system that the committee uses.  The 18-19 season was brought up.  We started that season 0-2 in Q1 games and both were extremely frustrating and way worse than last night IMO.  We then rattled off a neutral court win over 23rd ranked kenpom Louisville, 20th ranked kenpom and future B12 champions K-State, 16th ranked kenpom Madison, and 22nd ranked kenpom and 30 game winner Buffalo. A 4-0 stretch of Q1 wins, and there was really about 6 weeks between the 2nd half of Kansas, and StJ where we were playing good, and consistently good ball.  How that season ended is another question that has been discussed before, and I'm sure again, but if you are trying to make the argument that we can't get up for consecutive big games, that sstretch is a poor example IMO.

Because kenpom tells us where those teams were at the time. And using the NCAA metric would require using RPI for more than half the seasons, which is a trash metric. Kenpom is the best tool for a consistent argument. If someone prefers T-Rank or another comparable metric, fine, but I don't think you'll find significantly disparate results.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I disagree. Here are our turnover rankings in Big East play:

2015: 10th
2016: 9th
2017: 4th
2018: 7th
2019: 7th
2020: 6th
2021: 6th (out of 7 teams)

So we've been in the bottom half of the league in turnovers (including this year) 6/7 seasons under Wojo. That's a year-over-year problem.

This isn't a bad argument, but it doesn't convince me. One, I honestly don't give a crap about years 1 and 2. Roster was expected to be bad and it was bad. Second, I don't care that much about conference rankings in statistics for the same reason I don't care what place we finish in the conference standings. Conferences are unbalanced, sometimes finishing in 7th in the Big East would mean finishing 3rd in another high-major conference. Looking at our raw numbers, turnovers have been a weakness in 2 seasons, 18-19 and this season (so far). They were meh last season and they were more positives than negatives in 16-17 and 17-18.

The last point is what stands out, and why I have so little faith in this staff. Look at the rather scathing Athletic article that Marquette clearly granted access to. "This defensive mindset that Coach has been trying to inspire guys to have the last few years is finally starting to (translate) to how we play and how we show up on a nightly basis," John says. Seriously? They are just starting to do what the coaches have asked after FOUR YEARS in the program? So what, we should start looking ahead to the 2022-23 or 2023-24 seasons as the ones where we finally break through, assuming everyone sticks around that long?

I'm not going to automatically believe in some mythical defensive improvement when I see the same slow rotations, inadequate efforts to contest shots (the hand-waving in the vague direction of the opponent's chest as they reach the peak of their jump is infuriating), and repeated wide open outside looks.

Come on Brew this is weak for you. You are using a quote where a player off handedly uses a cliche in an interview as proof that the coaching staff doesn't know how to teach defense? There is undeniable objective evidence that the staff has made massive defensive improvements over the last three years.

As for the second paragraph here, honestly I think you are seeing us do some of these things 3 or 4 times a game and saying "see it's still a problem" when other teams do those same things 8 or 9 times a game. I think the defense last night was very good...other than when we doubled Mamu in the post. We got burned every time we did that and that was an adjustment that failed to happen.

In our last two losses, we saw Justin nailed to the bench against UCLA for the last 9 minutes when he was our most efficient offensive player on the night, whereas last night it was Theo who couldn't get back out there at the end even though he had been doing very well against the SHU bigs (Lewis out there in the final minute with a 31.3 eFG% on the night while Theo was on the bench at 72.2).

And in between those games we saw Wojo ride a red-hot Elliott against Creighton  for 32 minutes before wisely sitting an inefficient Elliott against Seton Hall. Maybe you saw something different last season, but my recollection is that Wojo didn't have a problem riding a hot hand last season, it was that he stuck with his main lineup of Howard, McEwen, Anim, Bailey, and John down the stretch when it was clear that it wasn't working. Maybe that will happen this season but we've already seen Wojo make changes to the starting lineup and seen guys minutes fluctuate greatly from game to game. I think it's early in a season with a bunch of new players and little practice time so the staff is still playing with the rotations to see what works best...like every coach in America is doing right now.

For me, we are at the "show me" point with this coaching staff. I'm not going to believe because they pound on cupcakes or even get 1-2 big wins. Show us you can string wins together. Show us you can compete every night. Last night we got outplayed, outworked at home for the better part of 35 minutes before trying to eke out a win with five minutes of effort. We were lucky to even be in that game last night considering how badly we were outplayed from the opening tip.

That's your right but I think you need some context for your "show me" expectations. This is a down year, we graduated everybody. We've got one guy in our 8.5 man rotation who has ever averaged more than 21 minutes a game in a full season. Expecting a team with that makeup to be consistent and string big wins together is a tall order in a normal season, let alone this year with limited practice time.

All that being said, I'm in "show me" mode too for the coaching staff. The difference is, I want the coaching staff to show me that they can make a team better than the sum of their parts. So far, I think they have, though only slightly. We will see if that continues. If this team makes the tournament, even if it's in the first four, I will be encouraged. Expectations will raise greatly for next season.

[CountryRoads]

Wojos tenure has always been a bit of a ruined orgasm which extends beyond games that follow a top 15 opponent. A few that come to mind are: the team falling apart days after receiving a #2 pre season ranking, the late season collapses at the end of the last two years after over achieving early, Henry going pro after one season, etc.

Always seems to get some good promising momentum going in the program either on the recruiting trail or on the court only to have it kind of fall apart and not quite get there. So, I understand the frustration of the OP.

[Its DJOver]

Because kenpom tells us where those teams were at the time. And using the NCAA metric would require using RPI for more than half the seasons, which is a trash metric. Kenpom is the best tool for a consistent argument. If someone prefers T-Rank or another comparable metric, fine, but I don't think you'll find significantly disparate results.

I'm using kenpom's final numbers from the season, not the in progress number where he has said that they're not as accurate until about 10 games into the season (4 out of the 5 games given as evidence in the OP were from the opening 10 games of the season).  We beat 23, 20, 16, and 22 kenpom ranked teams in a row.  According to your arbitrary top 15 cut off, that's 1 top 15 win.  If you broaden the scope even a little, it is much more impressive.

Edit:
https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2019
The final (more accurate) numbers actually show us with zero top 15 wins, but 4 top 23 wins in a row.  To me, that shows the ability to get up for multiple big games in succession.  I'm sure it's not always the case, but to say that we always seem to have a quick come down is a mistake IMO.

[brewcity77]

Then look at Sam Hauser's comments about how the difference between Marquette and Virginia is that Bennett held players to a different level of accountability. Or how if he wanted to play at Virginia, he had to play defense. Those aren't exactly rousing endorsements of our staff, or should we also going to dismiss the comments of star players who left?

And again, we have 3 seniors starting, two more rotation players with multiple years in the system, and are middle of the pack in experience and minute continuity. This isn't a neophyte squad, we're actually pretty average in that regard.

[IrwinFletcher]

Then look at Sam Hauser's comments about how the difference between Marquette and Virginia is that Bennett held players to a different level of accountability. Or how if he wanted to play at Virginia, he had to play defense. Those aren't exactly rousing endorsements of our staff, or should we also going to dismiss the comments of star players who left?

And again, we have 3 seniors starting, two more rotation players with multiple years in the system, and are middle of the pack in experience and minute continuity. This isn't a neophyte squad, we're actually pretty average in that regard.

So you pluck a random quote from a disgruntled former player to prove your point?

[panda]

So you pluck a random quote from a disgruntled former player to prove your point?

Izzo called Joey one of his toughest players. What changed from MU to MSU?

[tower912]

Then look at Sam Hauser's comments about how the difference between Marquette and Virginia is that Bennett held players to a different level of accountability. Or how if he wanted to play at Virginia, he had to play defense. Those aren't exactly rousing endorsements of our staff, or should we also going to dismiss the comments of star players who left?

And again, we have 3 seniors starting, two more rotation players with multiple years in the system, and are middle of the pack in experience and minute continuity. This isn't a neophyte squad, we're actually pretty average in that regard.

I watch how Izzo is keeping Joey on a tight leash.   I hear Sam's quote.    My biggest gripe about Wojo was that he coddled the Hauser's too much.    He has a tendency to do the Duke star system.     And, if the letter story is even close to accurate, my absolute hugest problem with Wojo was that he allowed them to stay on the team.     

Defensively, if you have slow forwards and small guards.... there really isn't a good defensive scheme for that.   

[Silent Verbal]

I watch how Izzo is keeping Joey on a tight leash.   I hear Sam's quote.    My biggest gripe about Wojo was that he coddled the Hauser's too much.    He has a tendency to do the Duke star system.     And, if the letter story is even close to accurate, my absolute hugest problem with Wojo was that he allowed them to stay on the team.     

Defensively, if you have slow forwards and small guards.... there really isn't a good defensive scheme for that.

Wojo allowed Markus to go back to Arizona during the summer and train with his family while the rest of the team had to be in Milwaukee.  But yeah, he definitely coddled the Hausers.

[brewcity77]

So you pluck a random quote from a disgruntled former player to prove your point?

I pluck quotes from our players and our past players because those are the relevant quotes. You can choose to ignore those, but when the words in those quotes are born out in year after year results, I'm not sure why you'd be surprised that others choose to believe what they hear and see rather than the rosy narrative that doesn't seem to comport with this reality.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Wojo allowed Markus to go back to Arizona during the summer and train with his family while the rest of the team had to be in Milwaukee.  But yeah, he definitely coddled the Hausers.

Markus had a mental health breakdown and was allowed to go home and get well. If that is coddling, then any player or their family with a problem with that can go pledge allegiance to another program. Wojo's response there was pioneering and actually helped land DJ.

[GOO]

Three things I've learned from Scoop:

1.  Wojo needs a longer leash.  He pulls players too quickly for mistakes and they play tight. He needs to let players play and play though mistakes.  Let them run and get in the flow and improve.  How are they going to get better if they don't play through mistakes.

2. Wojo needs a shorter leash. Players won't learn otherwise . Who cares if the players tighten up and play afraid of making mistakes and looking over their shoulders.  It just means the players aren't tough enough or Wojo doesn't care or doesn't know how to coach. He needs to hold people accountable for mistakes.

My take:  The most effective coaching is actually positive coaching pointing out and encouraging the positives, what one is doing right, while limiting the negative responses.  I believe this has pretty much been established.  You want people focusing on the positive what they do right and not focusing on "not to do it wrong."  There is certainly a balance here, of course, but the old yell at every mistake is not the way to coach.  Yes, historically some coaches have succeeded with the negative coaching, but this ignores that this is how everyone else coached as well. And it might just be that some negative coaches succeed despite themselves or at least their teams succeed despite them based upon talent.  Is Izzo an example, I don't know, but the Bobby Knights of he world may not have been as good at their job as we once thought.   

My take: So Wojo knows not to focus on the mistakes.  Yes point them out, yes try to correct them.  But also don't have players playing to not make mistakes.  Balance is needed and with younger players who have not played together, a lot of patience is needed on his part. 

My take:  Wojo knows the emotional make up of his team and players a lot better than we do.  He seems patient this year and has learned from the above.

My take:  If Wojo wanted to be a traditional "punishment" coach, he really can't be as you need quality backups to put in if you start pulling players a lot, etc.  And then Scoop in its genius would say:  Too short a leash, let them play through mistakes!

3.  After a big win, we lose too often, and this is because Wojo can't get the team up to play the next game.  This is bad coaching. 

My take: This ignores logic.  It's called regress to the mean. We aren't losing to Prairie View. If we play above our weight and then lose to a quality opponent is that great coaching that we won the big game or bad coaching that we won the big game an then lost to a quality opponent.

My take: UCLA, Seton Hall, not games I expected us to Win.  Creighton and UW, definitely not games I expected to win.  We are ahead. Way ahead.    I'll take this coaching.

My take:  Most teams, especially college teams (versus veteran pro teams) might see some emotional let down.  But, a more logical way of looking at it is that when a team over achieves by winning against a highly ranked team and then plays at or near their expected level the following game, this is simple stats/logic.

Stats/logic dictate a regression unless the big win is the standard instead of the exception. 

[GOO]

Duplicate

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I mean yeah.  Tony Bennett and Tom Izzo are better coaches than Wojo.  I don't think anyone is going to dispute this.

The real questions are:  Is Wojo improving?  Is he learning from his mistakes?

And my answer would be that, while he has improved as a coach from his first couple of years, that improvement has been pretty marginal.  This is what a B+ recruiter and C+ coach gets you.  Some days they are going to look good.  Like Monday.  Some days they will look completely out of sorts and lost.  Yesterday was one of those days.

[GOO]

I'd say Wojo has learned a lot. His coaching style now reflects that of a positive coach rather than the traditional punishment coach. He needs patience with this team and he is showing it.  I like this team. He recruited it well.  Many pieces.  Too bad it is a Covid year, as I am looking forward to seeing how they play in March, even with freshman who often burn out - another reason not to be a traditional "punishment" coach with this team.

For my above post, here is the top google search on regression to the mean:

https://www.squawkpoint.com/2013/01/regression-to-the-mean/

Which makes me wonder, did Lewis play bad after UW or did he play as expected?  We all know the answer to that one.

[MarquetteDano]

I mean yeah.  Tony Bennett and Tom Izzo are better coaches than Wojo.  I don't think anyone is going to dispute this.

The real questions are:  Is Wojo improving?  Is he learning from his mistakes?

And my answer would be that, while he has improved as a coach from his first couple of years, that improvement has been pretty marginal.  This is what a B+ recruiter and C+ coach gets you.  Some days they are going to look good.  Like Monday.  Some days they will look completely out of sorts and lost.  Yesterday was one of those days.

Concise and pretty much sums it up.  I think my issue is that Wojo does not appear to be improving enough each year to make a big difference.  He is better than year 1,  but the progression has been too slow.

[MUfan12]

It's like the program is allergic to sustaining success.

16-17: Beat #1 Nova, lose 4 of 5
17-18: Beat #13 Hall by 20, lose 6 of 8
18-19: One game from league title, lose 5 of 6
19-20: Beat #19 Butler, lose 6 of 7

Four years in a row a big win (or chance at a title) has been followed by a tailspin. This is why everyone is rightly skeptical.

Young teams though, hey?

[MU82]

The OP was mostly to refer to how we always seem to have a quick come-down after we get the big win. After this week's win over Creighton, yesterday felt inevitable, even though we were at home, with momentum, and have arguably the better talent.

I also feel we spend as much time making excuses such as "we're young" when it's really not true. Our rotation includes three senior starters with 13 years of D1 experience & 10 in the program. We have two guards, one redshirt junior & one sophomore, that spent their entire careers here.

We really only have three newcomers, two of whom came in as top-40 recruits. Per kenpom, our experience is #179 & minute continuity is #161, so right around the middle of the pack, not where we were years ago when the "young" excuse was apt.

But yes, it's disappointment and frustration because we keep seeing this narrative play out and I'm also tired of the Cubs-fanesque way we try to convince ourselves this time will be different or how much better we'll be in a year or two when we've seen no tangible evidence that this staff is capable of making either of those things a reality.

I understand your frustration, share it, and agree with most of your points.

It's like the program is allergic to sustaining success.

16-17: Beat #1 Nova, lose 4 of 5
17-18: Beat #13 Hall by 20, lose 6 of 8
18-19: One game from league title, lose 5 of 6
19-20: Beat #19 Butler, lose 6 of 7

Four years in a row a big win (or chance at a title) has been followed by a tailspin. This is why everyone is rightly skeptical.

This is quite damning, and well stated. Of course, they also won 20 of 22 after a big loss to Kansas, but I get your point.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I pluck quotes from our players and our past players because those are the relevant quotes. You can choose to ignore those, but when the words in those quotes are born out in year after year results, I'm not sure why you'd be surprised that others choose to believe what they hear and see rather than the rosy narrative that doesn't seem to comport with this reality.

But they're not though when it comes to defense. We have objective statistical evidence that the defense improved greatly in the past three years. Maybe the defense tailspins in Big East play but other than the Creighton game (a top 5 offense), our defense has been very good.

As for Sam's comments about accountability, I'd buy that more than his comments about the defense. But Silent Verbal's example was a bad one. Dr. B has the correct set of facts on that one.

[GOO]

It's like the program is allergic to sustaining success.

16-17: Beat #1 Nova, lose 4 of 5
17-18: Beat #13 Hall by 20, lose 6 of 8
18-19: One game from league title, lose 5 of 6
19-20: Beat #19 Butler, lose 6 of 7

Four years in a row a big win (or chance at a title) has been followed by a tailspin. This is why everyone is rightly skeptical.

Young teams though, hey?

Are we saying that Wojo only wins the big games? 
Again, the lack of logic baffles me.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

And again, we have 3 seniors starting, two more rotation players with multiple years in the system, and are middle of the pack in experience and minute continuity. This isn't a neophyte squad, we're actually pretty average in that regard.

And only 1 of those dudes has averaged more than 21 minutes a game in a season. Adjusting from being a guy to one of the guys is not a smooth process. I've actually been impressed with how Koby, Theo, and Jamal have grown into their roles. Elliott has had highs and lows and Symir has just had lows so far.

This is not the year to expect winning at a high level consistently. It was never going to be, no matter who was coaching. It is definitely a year to expect the coaching staff to prove that they can make this team better than the sum of its parts which is something that they haven't shown in previous years. If they don't, I'll personally be ready to move on.

[MU82]

I mean yeah.  Tony Bennett and Tom Izzo are better coaches than Wojo.  I don't think anyone is going to dispute this.

The real questions are:  Is Wojo improving?  Is he learning from his mistakes?

And my answer would be that, while he has improved as a coach from his first couple of years, that improvement has been pretty marginal.  This is what a B+ recruiter and C+ coach gets you.  Some days they are going to look good.  Like Monday.  Some days they will look completely out of sorts and lost.  Yesterday was one of those days.

I agree mostly with this.

However, I don't think he looked "completely out of sorts" last night. That applies to the Oklahoma State game, for sure. Yesterday, I wish he had coached better, but I don't think it was a hot mess or anything like OSU.

It is amazing how much better he coached when we hit nearly 60% of our threes in Omaha, though!

[IrwinFletcher]

I pluck quotes from our players and our past players because those are the relevant quotes. You can choose to ignore those, but when the words in those quotes are born out in year after year results, I'm not sure why you'd be surprised that others choose to believe what they hear and see rather than the rosy narrative that doesn't seem to comport with this reality.

And you have chosen to ignore quotes from the likes of Markus Howard and Samir who likely say nothing but positive things about Wojo.

Guys who stay love the coach and the program.

Guys who leave hate the coach and the program.

Their comments will reflect that.