Post-COVID downtowns.. / mass transit

[mu_hilltopper]

I read this article about how COVID has changed NYC .. and the author's musings on its future.

https://jamesaltucher.com/blog/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why/

I think every downtown area has been hit hard, and it's .. awful to think of their futures.    They're all ghost towns .. all the white collar people are working from home.   Sure, some businesses will slowly come back in 2021  -- maybe. 

I gotta figure a boatload of cubicle farms will get downsized and commercial real estate will be plummeting as huge chunks of the formerly downtownites will WFH going forward.

So many ramifications beyond real estate office space .. I mean, so much of every mass transit system is designed for commuting, bringing people downtown.   NYC's mass transit is down -75% compared to last year's numbers.   I imagine that's the same everywhere. -- It won't stay -75% but .. maybe -50%?   

Not to mention all the roads that we've built.  I think I've bought two tanks of gas in the past 5 months.

[🏀]

You might wanna put some Seafoam in the gas tank then.

Vaccine and downtowns come back. No doubt honestly.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I don’t know if this will happen since the demographic that owns NYC property is not feeling a liquidity crunch, but if it does go south, I would seriously consider buying. 

[Not A Serious Person]

30% of the workforce can work at home. The other 70% must be in a workplace (think waitress and surgeon).

The fear was the 30% could not work well from home.  Four months later and we learned that is not the case.  Further, the 30% really like not having to go into the office for eight hours a day, five days a week.

The other 70% are loving not having the 30% clogging up their daily commute.

So, what is the future of the office?  Those big buildings in the city center full of people.  Tell me that and you answered the future of the city. (I'm not arguing the office completely goes away.  It will not.  But does it fundamentally change?  How?)

Remember, having employees stay at home saves a ton of money.  Those that think everyone must return full-time will have to compete with lower cost comeptitiors that think they can do it without the expense of a large office and support staff for that office.  Many of the most talented might like the idea of a less stressful and free work environment of working at home and ditch the commute, and/or the most expense city neighborhoods to reduce that commute, for those companies.

So, I ask again ... Post COVID what is the purpose of the office?  Has it changed?  Is it still the place you are expected to be at 40 hours a week (again, if you're among the 30%)?

------------------

Two things ... this artcle from today's FT:

If you can do your job anywhere, can anyone do your job?
Trusting people to work well from home is one skill managers now have to learn
https://www.ft.com/content/fe5a7907-14b9-4e61-9938-ec3dd9d06831

And this passage from the Altucher post above ...

F) OK, OK, BUT NYC ALWAYS COMES BACK

Yes it does. I lived three blocks from Ground Zero on 9/11. Downtown, where I lived, was destroyed, but it came roaring back within two years. Such sadness and hardship and then quickly that area became the most attractive area in New York.

And in 2008/2009, there was much suffering during the Great Recession, again much hardship, but things came roaring back.

But… this time is different. You’re never supposed to say that but this time it’s true. If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient, I hope you’re right.

I don’t benefit from saying any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I’ve lived there forever. I STILL live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back.
But this time is different.

One reason: Bandwidth.

In 2008, average bandwidth speeds were 3 megabits per second. That’s not enough for a Zoom meeting with reliable video quality. Now, it’s over 20 megabits per second. That’s more than enough for high-quality video.

There’s a before and after. BEFORE: No remote work. AFTER: Everyone can work remotely.

The difference: bandwidth got faster. And that’s basically it. People have left New York City and have moved completely into virtual worlds. The Time-Life Building doesn’t need to fill up again. Wall Street can now stretch across every street instead of just being one building in Manhattan.

We are officially AB: After Bandwidth. And for the entire history of NYC (the world) until now, we were BB: Before Bandwidth.

Remote learning, remote meetings, remote offices, remote performance, remote everything.

That’s what is different.

Everyone has spent the past five months adapting to a new lifestyle. Nobody wants to fly across the country for a two-hour meeting when you can do it just as well on Zoom. I can go see “live comedy” on Zoom. I can take classes from the best teachers in the world for almost free online as opposed to paying $70,000 a year for a limited number of teachers who may or may not be good.

Everyone has choices now. You can live in the music capital of Nashville, you can live in the “next Silicon Valley” of Austin. You can live in your hometown in the middle of wherever. And you can be just as productive, make the same salary, have higher quality of life with a cheaper cost to live.

G) And what would make you come back?

There won’t be business opportunities for years. Businesses move on. People move on. It will be cheaper for businesses to function more remotely and bandwidth is only getting faster.

Wait for events and conferences and even meetings and maybe even office spaces to start happening in virtual realities once everyone is spread out from midtown Manhattan to all over the country.

The quality of restaurants will start to go up in all the second- and then third-tier cities as talent and skill flow to the places that can quickly make use of them.
Ditto for cultural events.

And then people will ask, “Wait a second, I was paying over 16% in state and city taxes and these other states and cities have little to no taxes? And I don’t have to deal with all the other headaches of NYC?”

Because there are headaches in NYC. Lots of them. It’s just we sweep them under the table because so much else has been good there.

NYC has a $9 billion deficit. $1 billion more than the mayor thought it was going to have. How does a city pay back its debts? The main way is aid from the state. But the state deficit just went bonkers. Then is taxes. But if 900,000 estimated jobs are lost in NYC and tens of thousands of businesses, then that means less taxes unless taxes are raised.

(Revenue sources for NYC are all going down but the deficit is going up)
Next is tolls from the tunnels and bridges. But fewer people are commuting to work. Well, how about the city-owned colleges? Fewer people are returning to college. Well how about property taxes? More people defaulting on their properties.

What reason will people have to go back to NYC?

I love my life in NYC. I have friends all over NY. People I’ve known for decades. I could go out of my apartment and cross the street and there was my comedy club and I could go up onstage and perform. I could go a few minutes by Uber and meet with anyone or go play PingPong or go to a movie or go on a podcast and people traveling through could come on my podcast.

I could go out at night to my favorite restaurants and then see my favorite performers perform. I could go to the park and play chess, see friends. I could take advantage of all this wonderful city has to offer.

[Not A Serious Person]

What is the market's opinion of the questions I pose above?

Total market value of all US airlines
$68.2 billion

Total market value of Zoom communciations alone
$69.1 billion

(Remember in additon to Zoom, we also have Skype, Webex, GotoMeeting, Google Hangout, etc etc.)

[D'Lo Brown]

I have worked from home for 2+ years. In spite of what you'd think I'd say, I do not believe most people in jobs that could work from home, will continue to.

The people suddenly arguing for it... Are largely the people that have been granted access to WFH since the pandemic began & think it's the greatest thing that ever happened to them. And are hunting for any possible story out there that WFH is clearly the best.

Meanwhile, their managers notice a downtrend in output, a downtrend in comradery (important in order to get people to want to put in 50-60-70 hr weeks when needed), & overall a difficulty in bringing up new hires/filling gaps.

People on the internet that love their newfound WFH will only mention the positives... And there are many. I believe in some industries, there will continue to be a desire for it especially when the cost savings are dramatic (such as paying for weekly travel, hotel, food). There will also continue to be a desire for it in truly prohibitive areas such as SF & NYC, where orgs can save 25-50% FTE salaries (you can barely live in SF on $100k, but you're a king in Alabama). Not for the whole workplace, but some. All of those trends were already in existence.

I would bet against there being a broad shift that causes entire or large parts of workplaces to WFH. Most businesses cannot sustain that, now or any time soon. It will rot them from the inside & they would start to be out-competed by others.

[forgetful]

Watching a concert, play, or opera is not the same over zoom. Same with museums.

Schools and education is not the same over zoom. Neither are conferences.

They suffice in a pinch, but the human element is extremely important. You'll see that people are more likely to make a deal with someone they've interacted with in person, than over zoom. That means the business that makes the effort for an in person meeting will outperform.

We'll see a good deal more work from home, but we are not going to see a sea change across the entire economy. The human element is too important.

[JWags85]

I have worked from home for 2+ years. In spite of what you'd think I'd say, I do not believe most people in jobs that could work from home, will continue to.

The people suddenly arguing for it... Are largely the people that have been granted access to WFH since the pandemic began & think it's the greatest thing that ever happened to them. And are hunting for any possible story out there that WFH is clearly the best.

Meanwhile, their managers notice a downtrend in output, a downtrend in comradery (important in order to get people to want to put in 50-60-70 hr weeks when needed), & overall a difficulty in bringing up new hires/filling gaps.

People on the internet that love their newfound WFH will only mention the positives... And there are many. I believe in some industries, there will continue to be a desire for it especially when the cost savings are dramatic (such as paying for weekly travel, hotel, food). There will also continue to be a desire for it in truly prohibitive areas such as SF & NYC, where orgs can save 25-50% FTE salaries (you can barely live in SF on $100k, but you're a king in Alabama). Not for the whole workplace, but some. All of those trends were already in existence.

I would bet against there being a broad shift that causes entire or large parts of workplaces to WFH. Most businesses cannot sustain that, now or any time soon. It will rot them from the inside & they would start to be out-competed by others.

Very well said. I’d further pose that, empirically, many of the people I know newly WFH and raving about it, have had decreased workloads from a variety of reasons.  So yea, when you only have 20-25 hours of real work to do from home, as opposed to a standard 35-40+, it’s great.  But otherwise, it gets to be a lot. A good friend of mine is a brand manager with a big CPG. Very meeting heavy role. He said it’s exhausting and horrible to be on Zoom conferences 8 hours a day in a way that meetings were not, and also finds that a meeting that would typically be slotted for an hour but would adjourn after 30-35 min in the normal world, is taking that full hour if not more in Zoom, which sucks.  The “team” element of many work functions would implode if WFH became the norm.

They suffice in a pinch, but the human element is extremely important. You'll see that people are more likely to make a deal with someone they've interacted with in person, than over zoom. That means the business that makes the effort for an in person meeting will outperform.

We'll see a good deal more work from home, but we are not going to see a sea change across the entire economy. The human element is too important.

I’ve mentioned it early in this whole pandemic, but people championing this as the “end of business travel” are either academics with little real world business experience, or people with vested interest in a significant decrease in business travel, be it “green“ reasons or tech.  The human element for deal making is IMMENSE, domestically but even more so across international and cultural lines.

I’m currently working on a few projects internationally, as is my normal business. One ongoing in Belgium has been in the works for 6 months. Even factoring in the COVID slowdown, this would have been wrapped up months ago cause I would have hopped on a flight to Brussels, sat with people in Antwerp over a few days and hashed it out. Instead it’s deprioritized emails and calls and the occasional video conference and things lack urgency. But when they know someone is flying in from overseas, there is a priority and respect paid and schedules are cleared or rearranged.

On a relationship basis, I have customers from Singapore I’m quite close with. We text and chat often, but our big convos about business have always been in person and what truly move things forward. We’ve done a few Zooms but it’s largely brief and a normal 2 hour in person discussion gets spread over 3-4 different calls cause the conversation can halt. And these are people I will sit on a 2 hour flight with and chat nonstop.  It’s just a different relationship cadence

[D'Lo Brown]

Very well said. I’d further pose that, empirically, many of the people I know newly WFH and raving about it, have had decreased workloads from a variety of reasons.  So yea, when you only have 20-25 hours of real work to do from home, as opposed to a standard 35-40+, it’s great.  But otherwise, it gets to be a lot. A good friend of mine is a brand manager with a big CPG. Very meeting heavy role. He said it’s exhausting and horrible to be on Zoom conferences 8 hours a day in a way that meetings were not, and also finds that a meeting that would typically be slotted for an hour but would adjourn after 30-35 min in the normal world, is taking that full hour if not more in Zoom, which sucks.  The “team” element of many work functions would implode if WFH became the norm.

I’ve mentioned it early in this whole pandemic, but people championing this as the “end of business travel” are either academics with little real world business experience, or people with vested interest in a significant decrease in business travel, be it “green“ reasons or tech.  The human element for deal making is IMMENSE, domestically but even more so across international and cultural lines.

I’m currently working on a few projects internationally, as is my normal business. One ongoing in Belgium has been in the works for 6 months. Even factoring in the COVID slowdown, this would have been wrapped up months ago cause I would have hopped on a flight to Brussels, sat with people in Antwerp over a few days and hashed it out. Instead it’s deprioritized emails and calls and the occasional video conference and things lack urgency. But when they know someone is flying in from overseas, there is a priority and respect paid and schedules are cleared or rearranged.

On a relationship basis, I have customers from Singapore I’m quite close with. We text and chat often, but our big convos about business have always been in person and what truly move things forward. We’ve done a few Zooms but it’s largely brief and a normal 2 hour in person discussion gets spread over 3-4 different calls cause the conversation can halt. And these are people I will sit on a 2 hour flight with and chat nonstop.  It’s just a different relationship cadence

Not to mention that meetings are much less productive remote, especially when they involve more than 2 or 3 attendees. The diffusion of responsibility & lack of anyone observing your behavior means that the majority of attendees are probably hardly listening, & the meeting involves 1 or 2 people simply reciting what they already knew.

The people hardly listening think it's great since they were able to play Minecraft the whole time (& maybe post on Twitter about the greatness of WFH).

The value of meetings & meeting structure are for another thread, but, we aren't getting rid of them... It is entrenched in society. And people are always going to schedule them for either 30 minutes or (usually) an hour. Further, certain people WFH lose their ability to perceive that they are wasting anyone's time when the meeting is meant to be an hour long, as opposed to being meant for some purpose.

[Hards Alumni]

What I think will be the most interesting thing to come of all of this is that the 40 hour work week contains a LOT of wasted time.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

What I think will be the most interesting thing to come of all of this is that the 40 hour work week contains a LOT of wasted time.

I think it contains a lot of "social time," which isn't necessarily bad.

I found myself losing focus at home after about the Fourth of July.  Have been back in the office the last couple of weeks and its been great!  We are only keeping the offices half full through at least October.

[GBPhoenix1993]

Let's just say that after this pandemic is over, large urban downtowns only 80% of all the workers "come back" to commuting downtown.  Here's to hoping that if that is the case, that whatever buildings turn out to be no longer needed, that some sort of environmentally sound solution can take the place of whatever can be demolished.  Maybe more parks, or some other type of environmentally positive type thing can begin to help in the battle vs. climate change. 

I realize that since that type of thing won't help bring $$$ to the cities it probably wouldn't happen.  But hey. let's try to look at turning a negative into a positive in some fashion.

[GooooMarquette]

I agree with much of what has been said here - I doubt there will be a huge move to WFH. Maybe a few percent above pre-COVID levels.

That said, I suspect we will see far more 'flexible' work schedules, where maybe people go into the office a few days a week - the days where they have meetings or other activities for which in-person contact is needed - but work from home on those days when they need to do more solitary work. I have done this for years, and I suspect many other 'high-level' people here have as well. IMO - we will probably see this trickling down to mid- and lower level employees as well post-COVID.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Very well said. I’d further pose that, empirically, many of the people I know newly WFH and raving about it, have had decreased workloads from a variety of reasons.  So yea, when you only have 20-25 hours of real work to do from home, as opposed to a standard 35-40+, it’s great.  But otherwise, it gets to be a lot. A good friend of mine is a brand manager with a big CPG. Very meeting heavy role. He said it’s exhausting and horrible to be on Zoom conferences 8 hours a day in a way that meetings were not, and also finds that a meeting that would typically be slotted for an hour but would adjourn after 30-35 min in the normal world, is taking that full hour if not more in Zoom, which sucks.  The “team” element of many work functions would implode if WFH became the norm.

I’ve mentioned it early in this whole pandemic, but people championing this as the “end of business travel” are either academics with little real world business experience, or people with vested interest in a significant decrease in business travel, be it “green“ reasons or tech.  The human element for deal making is IMMENSE, domestically but even more so across international and cultural lines.

I’m currently working on a few projects internationally, as is my normal business. One ongoing in Belgium has been in the works for 6 months. Even factoring in the COVID slowdown, this would have been wrapped up months ago cause I would have hopped on a flight to Brussels, sat with people in Antwerp over a few days and hashed it out. Instead it’s deprioritized emails and calls and the occasional video conference and things lack urgency. But when they know someone is flying in from overseas, there is a priority and respect paid and schedules are cleared or rearranged.

On a relationship basis, I have customers from Singapore I’m quite close with. We text and chat often, but our big convos about business have always been in person and what truly move things forward. We’ve done a few Zooms but it’s largely brief and a normal 2 hour in person discussion gets spread over 3-4 different calls cause the conversation can halt. And these are people I will sit on a 2 hour flight with and chat nonstop.  It’s just a different relationship cadence

My international business has been busy lately.  India - China & Singapore

In a weekly call thios morning the company Chinese salesman brought up some story of China invading Taiwan before the end of the year. 

[Not A Serious Person]

I agree with much of what has been said here - I doubt there will be a huge move to WFH. Maybe a few percent above pre-COVID levels.

That said, I suspect we will see far more 'flexible' work schedules, where maybe people go into the office a few days a week - the days where they have meetings or other activities for which in-person contact is needed - but work from home on those days when they need to do more solitary work. I have done this for years, and I suspect many other 'high-level' people here have as well. IMO - we will probably see this trickling down to mid- and lower level employees as well post-COVID.

Goo, you described a massive change in the highlight part above without realizing it.

If this happens, office vacancy in city centers to to 30%/40%, buildings go bankrupt and the ecosystem around them (lunch places, shopping, gyms, etc) disappear.

Then going into the office becuase less desirable, because city centers are uneconomic and lose their appeal.

So, I ask the question again, what is the purpose of the office? (again, for the 30% that can WFH)  Post-pandemic, WHEN IT IS SAFE TO RIDE MASS TRANSIT AT PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS, why are you going back to the office after a year of WFH?

Let's just say that after this pandemic is over, large urban downtowns only 80% of all the workers "come back" to commuting downtown.  Here's to hoping that if that is the case, that whatever buildings turn out to be no longer needed, that some sort of environmentally sound solution can take the place of whatever can be demolished.  Maybe more parks, or some other type of environmentally positive type thing can begin to help in the battle vs. climate change. 

I realize that since that type of thing won't help bring $$$ to the cities it probably wouldn't happen.  But hey. let's try to look at turning a negative into a positive in some fashion.

80% means one day a week at home. Maybe two.  That is at least a 20% reduction in office space need, maybe more. This is an economic depression for city centers.  They are severly hurt with this big a loss.

Demolish buldings and turn them into parks are you have worsened the experience of downtown. If you turn city centers into versions of suburbs, why are people wasting time and effort to go there.

Not to mention that meetings are much less productive remote, especially when they involve more than 2 or 3 attendees. The diffusion of responsibility & lack of anyone observing your behavior means that the majority of attendees are probably hardly listening, & the meeting involves 1 or 2 people simply reciting what they already knew.

The dirty little secret is they were equally as unproductive in the office.  They were their physically but were really updating facebook and watching netflix on their phones when no one was watching.  Their has been little to no OVERALL loss of productivity moving to WFH.

A good friend of mine is a brand manager with a big CPG. Very meeting heavy role. He said it’s exhausting and horrible to be on Zoom conferences 8 hours a day in a way that meetings were not, and also finds that a meeting that would typically be slotted for an hour but would adjourn after 30-35 min in the normal world, is taking that full hour if not more in Zoom, which sucks.  The “team” element of many work functions would implode if WFH became the norm.

See the FT article I linked above.  They described this situation.  And to be blunt, they perfectly described your friend and his inflexible attitude is the thing that has to change. 

A new crop of managers that can manage people REMOTELY are going to be needed.  Sounds like he is not up to the task. (sorry)

[tower912]

It follows that this will have a negative effect on ride sharing, on taxis/Uber/Lyft, on bicycle sharing, etc.

[Not A Serious Person]

It follows that this will have a negative effect on ride sharing, on taxis/Uber/Lyft, on bicycle sharing, etc.

Those big building in city centers have an entire ecosystem around them, lunch place, shopping centers, gyms, night life (theatres), taxis, ride-share, etc.  All of this is at risk

If we do not return to near the levels, again 80% does not cut it, Milwuakee spent $1 billion putting Fiserv in the wrong place.  Maybe it should have been on the other side of the parking lot at Miller Stadium.

[Not A Serious Person]

Last week NY Gov Andrew Cuomo said the thing you are not supposed to say outloud.  1% of large city taxpayers pay 50% of the taxes.  If only some of them leave, the cities finances are in deep trouble.

The uber-wealthy are the most mobile people in the world.  They stay somewhere becuase they WANT TO, not because they HAVE TO.

Lately they are looking like they don't want to stay anymore.

---

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8595717/Cuomo-begs-wealthy-New-Yorkers-come-save-city-Ill-buy-drink.html
Gov. Andrew Cuomo is begging wealthy New Yorkers to return to the city to save it from economic ruin while fighting off calls from other lawmakers to raise their taxes - a move he fears could permanently drive the top 1 percent out of the city.

Thousands of New York City residents fled Manhattan and Brooklyn earlier this year when the city was the COVID-19 epicenter of the world.

Many flocked to their second homes in the Hamptons or upstate, while others rented or bought new properties, abandoning their expensive city apartments.

At a press conference on Monday, he said of the wealthiest residents who have long left the city: 'I literally talk to people all day long who are in their Hamptons house who also lived here, or in their Hudson Valley house or in their Connecticut weekend house, and I say, "You gotta come back, when are you coming back?" 

"'We'll go to dinner, I'll buy you a drink. Come over, I'll cook."

'They're not coming back right now. And you know what else they're thinking? If I stay there, I pay a lower income tax because they don't pay the New York City surcharge,' he said.

---

Hollywood's Apocalypse NOW: Rich and famous are fleeing in droves as liberal politics and coronavirus turn City of Dreams into cesspit plagued by junkies and violent criminals
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8631063/Hollywood-Apocalypse-rich-famous-fleeing-droves.html

---

Zillow Exposes Dramatic Exodus Out Of San Francisco Real Estate
https://www.zillow.com/research/2020-urb-suburb-market-report-27712/
According to the company’s “2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report,” home prices in the city have fallen 4.9% year-over-year, while inventory has jumped 96% during the same period, as a flood of new listings hit the market.

---

Steve Levy is the President of Sudler Property management, one of the largest property managers in the city.

Chicago looting leaves residents feeling unsafe, ready to flee city, property management company tells Mayor Lori Lightfoot - ABC7 Chicago
https://abc7chicago.com/property-management-pres-chicago-homeowners-feel-unsafe-ready-to-leave-after-looting/6367902/
A prominent property management president said the residents he represents and the company's staff do not feel safe in Chicago after the city was hit by looters again on Sunday. Sudler President Steven Levy sent a letter to Mayor Lightfoot on Wednesday to express his concern.

[rocky_warrior]

The dirty little secret is they were equally as unproductive in the office.  They were their physically but were really updating facebook and watching netflix on their phones when no one was watching.  Their has been little to no OVERALL loss of productivity moving to WFH.

At least for everyone I know, I can agree with this. If people were productive in the office, they have actually been spending more hours on the job at home. Slackers? Still the same slackers. Just at home.

[rocky_warrior]

The uber-wealthy are the most mobile people in the world.  They stay somewhere becuase they WANT TO, not because they HAVE TO.

Lately they are looking like they don't want to stay anymore.

Also agree. Although could probably drop it down to "well compensated" instead of wealthy. Seattle is going to have a problem with Amazon employees suddenly realizing they can be anywhere and not pay Seattle rent/mortgages.  Some with SF tech workers as you alluded. 

Though on the Seattle example, Amazon is about to have a real estate problem (too much of it)

[Chili]

You may not see 100% WFH but I also don't think you'll ever see people move back to 100% in the office. It'll be a hybrid model. I don't forsee myself ever going back to an office 5 days a week every week ever again. Zero desire for all the distractions offices have. I am way more productive at home. I manage a brand portfolio that is 90% of my companies business. I see in the future being back 1-2 days a week in the office for "meeting" days. The rest of the time I'll work from home. The hardest thing has been doing new product development tastings but that can all be fixed.

Being in the office is nightmare of time sucks all around you.

For those who feel stuck on zoom meetings need to start just declining ones that are not needed. If there is no agenda, don't go. Don't blame your poor discipline or companies culture on time sucking on WFH.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

The Uber-wealthy or the well off don’t keep a place in the city for ‘work’.  They do it because it’s fun and has access to the best theater, food, etc, etc. 

If all that goes poof, then yes cities die.

I would bet on other things going poof before our cities. 

Also Chili — +1 on the hybrid.

[Not A Serious Person]

Also agree. Although could probably drop it down to "well compensated" instead of wealthy. Seattle is going to have a problem with Amazon employees suddenly realizing they can be anywhere and not pay Seattle rent/mortgages.  Some with SF tech workers as you alluded. 

Though on the Seattle example, Amazon is about to have a real estate problem (too much of it)

Several years ago, New Jersey largest taxpayer was David Tepper. He runs the hedge fund Appoloosa and is the owner the Carolina Pathers ... he fired Rivera and released Can Newton.

He left New Jersey for Florida (no state income tax in FL), and just his loss of taxes put the state into an economic crisis.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/01/business/one-top-taxpayer-moved-and-new-jersey-shuddered.html

Another dirty little secret ... Chicago largest taxpayers are Ken Griffin (hedge fund Citdel) and Sam Zell (private equity/real estate).  If just these two guys leave, and Griffin is openly talking about it, the city loses its investment grade rating and teeters on financial disaster, (FYI - Griffin, owns the two of the most expense homes in the state of Florida, a 100+ million Palm Beach Estate and a $60 million condo in Miami)

Add in Liz and Dick Uihlein and these four people, by leaving, have the ability to ruin the state of illinois by taxing their tax bill and leaving.

Every state has this problem ... remember it is easy for them to leave.  And lately they are thinking differently and seriously considering it.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

None of this is new Heise.  It’s fun to discuss but this really isn’t because of COVID.  It also isn’t a dirty little secret.  It’s pretty well known. 

Now if the vaccines don’t get things back to a new normal on 12-18 mo.  Then maybe we have something to talk about.

[Not A Serious Person]

None of this is new Heise.  It’s fun to discuss but this really isn’t because of COVID.  It also isn’t a dirty little secret.  It’s pretty well known. 

Now if the vaccines don’t get things back to a new normal on 12-18 mo.  Then maybe we have something to talk about.

Then start talking! Because they economy was built on the old normal and it sounds like we are not going back to that.  So, big changes are coming.

Chili is correct ... I just think think you (all in the collective) do not realize how big a change this represents.  It's huge! 

Yes, we will adjust over time, but they means a lot of pain first for those that need the old normal to return. And large city centers and the purpose of an office, and how it structured, and where it is put are going to have a huge change.