Post-COVID downtowns.. / mass transit

[Pakuni]

If both were to leave (again if) it blows a hole in Chicago's finances.

If you understood how municipal finances work, or where cities like Chicago get their revenue, you wouldn't be peddling this.
To be clear, the city could rather have people like Griffin as residents than not. But their tax contributions are far down the list of why. The truth is if Griffin were to pack up and leave tomorrow, the impact on Chicago's finances would be a drop in the Lincoln Park Lagoon.

Cities get their revenue from two primary sources: property taxes and consumption-related taxes/fees, i.e. sales taxes, tourism/entertainment taxes, motor fuel taxes, vehicle fees, water/sewer bills, etc.
Griffin does pay a huge property tax bill - $1.3 million - but most of that doesn't go to the city, and the amount that does is infinitesimal to the overall property tax levy. And if Griffin splits town tomorrow, he still has to pay that property tax bill until he sells the home to someone else ... who will then pay that property tax bill. So Griffin bailing really doesn't effect city's property tax base at all.
As for other revenue sources, unless Griffin smokes 75 packs a day, owns a fleet of 300 vehicles, buys his Grey Goose by the truckload, rents a floor at the Peninsula every night and has toilets that never stop running, his consumption-related taxes aren't vastly greater than those of any other city resident.

To reiterate, Chicago would rather have Griffin than not. But if he leaves, it won't be anything close to the financial ruin you're trying to sell.
There's been nothing stopping Griffin from leaving for the last 20 years. He hasn't because he doesn't want to. He likes the city and the outsized influence he has on it.

[Not A Serious Person]

If you understood how municipal finances work, or where cities like Chicago get their revenue, you wouldn't be peddling this.
To be clear, the city could rather have people like Griffin as residents than not. But their tax contributions are far down the list of why. The truth is if Griffin were to pack up and leave tomorrow, the impact on Chicago's finances would be a drop in the Lincoln Park Lagoon.

Cities get their revenue from two primary sources: property taxes and consumption-related taxes/fees, i.e. sales taxes, tourism/entertainment taxes, motor fuel taxes, vehicle fees, water/sewer bills, etc.
Griffin does pay a huge property tax bill - $1.3 million - but most of that doesn't go to the city, and the amount that does is infinitesimal to the overall property tax levy. And if Griffin splits town tomorrow, he still has to pay that property tax bill until he sells the home to someone else ... who will then pay that property tax bill. So Griffin bailing really doesn't effect city's property tax base at all.
As for other revenue sources, unless Griffin smokes 75 packs a day, owns a fleet of 300 vehicles, buys his Grey Goose by the truckload, rents a floor at the Peninsula every night and has toilets that never stop running, his consumption-related taxes aren't vastly greater than those of any other city resident.

To reiterate, Chicago would rather have Griffin than not. But if he leaves, it won't be anything close to the financial ruin you're trying to sell.
There's been nothing stopping Griffin from leaving for the last 20 years. He hasn't because he doesn't want to. He likes the city and the outsized influence he has on it.

If you understood city finances you'd understand what utter garbage this post is.

Earlier you promised to stop trolling.  So live up to it and go away for good this time.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

If you understood city finances you'd understand what utter garbage this post is.

Earlier you promised to stop trolling.  So live up to it and go away for good this time.

Uh....he's right.  Per usual, you are not.

[Not A Serious Person]

Landlords in NYC are getting worried that NYC is dying .... and they are going bankrupt.

New York Landlords Press Finance Bosses to Speed up Return-to-Work and Save City
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/nyc-landlords-press-finance-bosses-to-speed-return-and-save-city

A loose coalition of New York’s top property owners and managers is busily working the phones, pressing many of the city’s biggest employers -- including powerhouses like Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and BlackRock -- to speed up the return of workers. Their argument: It’s safe, and the eateries and shops that make Manhattan special can’t hold out much longer. Some are calling it the patriotic thing to do.

“I’ve been really pushing the CEOs to bring people back into the office,” said Jeff Blau, the head of Related Cos., the developer behind the Hudson Yards project. “I’ve been using a little bit of guilt trip and a little bit of coaxing.”

The reaction for now has been lukewarm.

Behind the desperation lies fear of a vicious spiral. The longer commuters stay home, the more local businesses will disappear, and the less reason there is for anyone to return. Executives and firms who’ve made a fortune developing and owning the city’s towers are facing the prospect of a significant slump in demand and prices for offices and residential units. But the ramifications extend to all New Yorkers, Blau said.

“I am watching the city decay as nobody is here,” he said. “Now is not the time to abandon the city and expect it to be in the same way you wanted it when you get back in a year from now.”

[Hards Alumni]

NYC is not going to die... not even close what a stupid line of thinking.

And I get called a doomer 

[4everwarriors]

Another option:

Don't allow uber-wealthy to occur in your society. Have a more even distribution of wealth across all classes. Then you don't have to make the upper end pay a larger share of taxes. Maybe focus on labor as opposed to capital.

You reap what you sow, hey?

[Hards Alumni]

You reap what you sow, hey?

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, hey?

[Pakuni]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, hey?

Iz wut it iz, aina?

[Hards Alumni]

Iz wut it iz, aina?

That dog won't hunt.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Very well said. I’d further pose that...move things forward.  And these are people I will sit on a 2 hour flight with and chat nonstop.  It’s just a different relationship cadence

Pretty much agree with everything you outlined Wags.

[jesmu84]

You reap what you sow, hey?

Care to expand?

[Not A Serious Person]

NYC is not going to die... not even close what a stupid line of thinking.

And I get called a doomer 

Depends on what you mean by "die"

I think they mean they need NYC to be so disirable that companies will willingly pay over $100/sq foot in rent and recent college graduates will pay $4k/month in rent just to live in the city.

So ... when does NYC return to this level of desirability for both companies and employees?

(to head off a question, if you read the article, or talk to anyone in Manhattan, it is not remotely close to this level of desirability now.)

[JWags85]

Depends on what you mean by "die"

I think they mean they need NYC to be so disirable that companies will willingly pay over $100/sq foot in rent and recent college graduates will pay $4k/month in rent just to live in the city.

So ... when does NYC return to this level of desirability for both companies and employees?

(to head off a question, if you read the article, or talk to anyone in Manhattan, it is not remotely close to this level of desirability now.)

Who are you speaking to? Cause when life returns to semi normalcy, it’s still gonna be one of the worlds great and most famous cities and all the pull that brings.

 And it’s WAYYY premature to talk about desirability when government still has restrictions on everything.  Talking about people about their perceptions and feelings about NYC into the future while we are still in the grips of a pandemic is like making assessments on the city’s future while the rubble at Ground Zero was still smoking.

The people that are eager and ready to leave/not return usually didn’t want to be there to begin with (parents with kids often) but were forced to due to professional situations. FWIW, I know dozens of kids that moved to NYC post college, all parts of Manhattan over the last 5 years, and none of them are paying $4K for rent. My GF is in a gorgeous studio+ in a new build in Hell’s Kitchen for $3200. Not to pretend NYC isn’t expensive as hell, but ridiculous exaggerations don’t help.

And NYC could experience an “exodus” that leads to a 10-15% correction in rents and would be just fine

[Hards Alumni]

Depends on what you mean by "die"

I think they mean they need NYC to be so disirable that companies will willingly pay over $100/sq foot in rent and recent college graduates will pay $4k/month in rent just to live in the city.

So ... when does NYC return to this level of desirability for both companies and employees?

(to head off a question, if you read the article, or talk to anyone in Manhattan, it is not remotely close to this level of desirability now.)

When?  I'm not sure has dropped off.  What you're describing seems like empty housing, and a bottoming out of the real estate market.

My estimation is that people will always want to live in NYC, and the market will continue to trend upward instead of downward.  Will Covid cause a small blip?  Sure, but I'd lay dollars that in 1 year we will see ATH's for home prices and rent in NYC.

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/new-york-real-estate-market/

[tower912]

The key to any return to normalcy is to break up with Rona.    When that happens, expect occupancy rates in NYC to return to normal.   Why?   Because it is NYC.

[4everwarriors]

Waitin' on dat sustainable livable wage check from Uncle Suga, hey?

[Mutaman]

Landlords in NYC are getting worried that NYC is dying .... and they are going bankrupt.

New York Landlords Press Finance Bosses to Speed up Return-to-Work and Save City
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/nyc-landlords-press-finance-bosses-to-speed-return-and-save-city

A loose coalition of New York’s top property owners and managers is busily working the phones, pressing many of the city’s biggest employers -- including powerhouses like Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and BlackRock -- to speed up the return of workers. Their argument: It’s safe, and the eateries and shops that make Manhattan special can’t hold out much longer. Some are calling it the patriotic thing to do.

“I’ve been really pushing the CEOs to bring people back into the office,” said Jeff Blau, the head of Related Cos., the developer behind the Hudson Yards project. “I’ve been using a little bit of guilt trip and a little bit of coaxing.”

The reaction for now has been lukewarm.

Behind the desperation lies fear of a vicious spiral. The longer commuters stay home, the more local businesses will disappear, and the less reason there is for anyone to return. Executives and firms who’ve made a fortune developing and owning the city’s towers are facing the prospect of a significant slump in demand and prices for offices and residential units. But the ramifications extend to all New Yorkers, Blau said.

“I am watching the city decay as nobody is here,” he said. “Now is not the time to abandon the city and expect it to be in the same way you wanted it when you get back in a year from now.”

[Mutaman]

Landlords in NYC are getting worried that NYC is dying .... and they are going bankrupt.

New York Landlords Press Finance Bosses to Speed up Return-to-Work and Save City
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/nyc-landlords-press-finance-bosses-to-speed-return-and-save-city

A loose coalition of New York’s top property owners and managers is busily working the phones, pressing many of the city’s biggest employers -- including powerhouses like Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and BlackRock -- to speed up the return of workers. Their argument: It’s safe, and the eateries and shops that make Manhattan special can’t hold out much longer. Some are calling it the patriotic thing to do.

“I’ve been really pushing the CEOs to bring people back into the office,” said Jeff Blau, the head of Related Cos., the developer behind the Hudson Yards project. “I’ve been using a little bit of guilt trip and a little bit of coaxing.”

The reaction for now has been lukewarm.

Behind the desperation lies fear of a vicious spiral. The longer commuters stay home, the more local businesses will disappear, and the less reason there is for anyone to return. Executives and firms who’ve made a fortune developing and owning the city’s towers are facing the prospect of a significant slump in demand and prices for offices and residential units. But the ramifications extend to all New Yorkers, Blau said.

“I am watching the city decay as nobody is here,” he said. “Now is not the time to abandon the city and expect it to be in the same way you wanted it when you get back in a year from now.”

Most of the small businesses that have closed in NYC before and since the virus, have stated that its because they cannot afford their rents and that their landlords were being unreasonable in raising the rents.  So lower the rents Mr Blau. Give back a little bit of that fortune. Its the patriotic thing to do.

[Mutaman]

Equinox gym chain stopped paying their rent back in April in NYC. The CEO of Equinox's major investor is Jeff Blau. He said it was the patriotic thing to do.

https://commercialobserver.com/2020/04/equinox-wont-pay-rent-to-landlords-in-april/

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Who are you speaking to? Cause when life returns to semi normalcy, it’s still gonna be one of the worlds great and most famous cities and all the pull that brings.

 And it’s WAYYY premature to talk about desirability when government still has restrictions on everything.  Talking about people about their perceptions and feelings about NYC into the future while we are still in the grips of a pandemic is like making assessments on the city’s future while the rubble at Ground Zero was still smoking.

The people that are eager and ready to leave/not return usually didn’t want to be there to begin with (parents with kids often) but were forced to due to professional situations. FWIW, I know dozens of kids that moved to NYC post college, all parts of Manhattan over the last 5 years, and none of them are paying $4K for rent. My GF is in a gorgeous studio+ in a new build in Hell’s Kitchen for $3200. Not to pretend NYC isn’t expensive as hell, but ridiculous exaggerations don’t help.

And NYC could experience an “exodus” that leads to a 10-15% correction in rents and would be just fine

A frequent story in the news here in Connecticut is record breaking teal estate sales.  It's driven by New Yorkers moving to Connecticut.  Houses sell the day they go on the market.
In mid June the USPS reported 10,000 address changes to Connecticut from NY from the start of the pandemic.  It has only
way increased since then.
That being said I can't wait for NYC to open further so I can visit.  It's been too long.

[mu_hilltopper]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/nyregion/remote-work-coronavirus-pandemic.html

Turning office space into low income housing?    Looks pretty grim for NYC.   

[4everwarriors]

MKE ain't no trivin' metropolis now, aina?