If restaurants open in May (for dine-in), are you going/taking your family?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Interesting data...I dont know how to insert a non-linked Jpeg picture, but here is something to think about on managing the pandemic. 

Germany bookings at restaurants ("seated diners - via Open table") is back to prior year level as of the week of 5/31.  US, Australia, Canada, UK, Down 80% - 100% (US the best of that bunch). 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I was just reading about the restaurant industry this morning.  Rolling Stone talks with a top NYC Chef and discusses how the restaurant business was probably unsustainable as it was before the pandemic and how there is an opportunity for restaurants to change going forward.  The restaurant pandemic fallout statistics cited in the article are brutal.

Can the Restaurant Industry Be Saved?
Daniel Humm ran a three-star Michelin kitchen. Now, it’s a commissary for frontline workers — and he just may keep it that way

By RYAN BORT

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/can-the-restaurant-industry-be-saved-995037/

[warriorchick]

I was just reading about the restaurant industry this morning.  Rolling Stone talks with a top NYC Chef and discusses how the restaurant business was probably unsustainable as it was before the pandemic and how there is an opportunity for restaurants to change going forward.  The restaurant pandemic fallout statistics cited in the article are brutal.

Can the Restaurant Industry Be Saved?
Daniel Humm ran a three-star Michelin kitchen. Now, it’s a commissary for frontline workers — and he just may keep it that way

By RYAN BORT

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/can-the-restaurant-industry-be-saved-995037/

It is interesting that they chose a place that charged hundreds of dollars per plate as their example. Restaurants will survive.

The economy has a tendency to rebalance itself.  If all the restaurants close because they can't afford rent, guess what?  Landlords will have tons of empty space, and they will be forced to lower their rent. That space can't all be filled by vape shops and nail salons.

Going out to eat isn't disappearing any time soon.  We are social animals, and meeting for a meal is probably the most popular social activity there is.  We are also very mobile (Covid-19 notwithstanding) and if we aren't at home at mealtime, we are going to need to find a place to eat.

Also, the concept of restaurants having a "catering shift" to feed hungry people is intriguing.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

The economy has a tendency to rebalance itself.  If all the restaurants close because they can't afford rent, guess what?  Landlords will have tons of empty space, and they will be forced to lower their rent. That space can't all be filled by vape shops and nail salons.

I think this has to and will happen too.  A lower rent is better than no rent.  Just makes sense.

[JWags85]

It is interesting that they chose a place that charged hundreds of dollars per plate as their example. Restaurants will survive.

The economy has a tendency to rebalance itself.  If all the restaurants close because they can't afford rent, guess what?  Landlords will have tons of empty space, and they will be forced to lower their rent. That space can't all be filled by vape shops and nail salons.

Going out to eat isn't disappearing any time soon.  We are social animals, and meeting for a meal is probably the most popular social activity there is.  We are also very mobile (Covid-19 notwithstanding) and if we aren't at home at mealtime, we are going to need to find a place to eat.

Also, the concept of restaurants having a "catering shift" to feed hungry people is intriguing.

Economic rebalancing applies to so much of the overreaction (IMO) to COVID. Off the top of my head, beyond just restaurants...

-Offices will become a relic, vast amounts of people will WFH
-Business travel is dead, people can just Zoom/Teams
-Vacation industry will shrink cause people will be scared to travel
-Social distancing will shrink capacity at sporting events, concerts, bars, etc...

People are quick to extrapolate things that very well may be true the next 3/6/9 months into these vast sea changes for the rest of time. Call me skeptical cause we’ve seen how fast society bounces back and returns to normal

[wadesworld]

Economic rebalancing applies to so much of the overreaction (IMO) to COVID. Off the top of my head, beyond just restaurants...

-Offices will become a relic, vast amounts of people will WFH
-Business travel is dead, people can just Zoom/Teams
-Vacation industry will shrink cause people will be scared to travel
-Social distancing will shrink capacity at sporting events, concerts, bars, etc...

People are quick to extrapolate things that very well may be true the next 3/6/9 months into these vast sea changes for the rest of time. Call me skeptical cause we’ve seen how fast society bounces back and returns to normal

Depends on if we come up with a successful treatment or vaccine for the virus. If we do things will get back to normal. If not I think your list will be pretty true.

[warriorchick]

Economic rebalancing applies to so much of the overreaction (IMO) to COVID. Off the top of my head, beyond just restaurants...

-Offices will become a relic, vast amounts of people will WFH
-Business travel is dead, people can just Zoom/Teams
-Vacation industry will shrink cause people will be scared to travel
-Social distancing will shrink capacity at sporting events, concerts, bars, etc...

People are quick to extrapolate things that very well may be true the next 3/6/9 months into these vast sea changes for the rest of time. Call me skeptical cause we’ve seen how fast society bounces back and returns to normal

This. I remember after 9/11 when everyone was predicting the permanent end of non-essential travel.

Assuming the virus runs its course, long-term we will be fine.

[MU82]

Economic rebalancing applies to so much of the overreaction (IMO) to COVID. Off the top of my head, beyond just restaurants...

-Offices will become a relic, vast amounts of people will WFH
-Business travel is dead, people can just Zoom/Teams
-Vacation industry will shrink cause people will be scared to travel
-Social distancing will shrink capacity at sporting events, concerts, bars, etc...

People are quick to extrapolate things that very well may be true the next 3/6/9 months into these vast sea changes for the rest of time. Call me skeptical cause we’ve seen how fast society bounces back and returns to normal

Totally agree.

I remember friends telling me they'd "never fly again" after 9/11. Within 6 months, they were back to doing all the travel they had ever done before, and more.

We want to do stuff. We want to spend money on experiences, and we will.

I do think there will be some businesses in which there is a lot of working from home where there was little or none before the pandemic, but I guess we'll see how that shakes out.

[pbiflyer]

This. I remember after 9/11 when everyone was predicting the permanent end of non-essential travel.

Assuming the virus runs its course, long-term we will be fine.

There were however, very permanent changes to travel. Mostly negative, mostly annoying. TSA comes to mind, but there were more.
I see the same thing happening post virus, but hopefully more positive, better cleaning of planes, hotels. But I also see some potentially negative - temperature checks for flying. End of amenities like club lounges  in hotels, less service in the airport ones.
Will be interesting to see what lasting effects there are from this.


Edited to add: I could see the restaurant industry disappearing.....if they got rid of alcohol.  As long as there is a place to drink, there will be restaurants. People who drink get hungry.

[Chili]

This. I remember after 9/11 when everyone was predicting the permanent end of non-essential travel.

Assuming the virus runs its course, long-term we will be fine.

It took 5 years for air travel to get back to pre-9/11 levels. And that was a singular event not a prolonged event epidemic.

[JWags85]

Depends on if we come up with a successful treatment or vaccine for the virus. If we do things will get back to normal. If not I think your list will be pretty true.

Disagree. Look at the reactions in many places already. Over time, regardless of vaccine or treatment, people are going to go back to normal.  People aren’t going to completely put their lives on hold forever, they just won’t. There are plenty of infectious diseases out there far more deadly that people just accept. Better cleaning/sanitization and personal hygiene practices perhaps, but even without a vaccine, people won’t let this hold them down forever.  And that’s not even talking potential immunities like happened with the Spanish Flu years ago.

It took 5 years for air travel to get back to pre-9/11 levels. And that was a singular event not a prolonged event epidemic.

VERY different IMO.  Flying didn’t kill directly people in this case.  It’s not less “safe” than a train, or a bus, or a ride share.  Not to mention there is an inherent fear with flying due to lack of control that a major terrorist event exacerbated.  You can look at how fast air passenger travel is bouncing back. In April it was around 4-4.5% of normal volume in the US.  Sunday was already back to 15% of comparative volume. And it’s been increasing steadily not wildly volatile. I’d imagine we’d be at 20-25% of normal volume by July 4th.  There may be a “new norm” due to airline/route consolidation and some changes in corporate travel. But if a normal day was around 2.5MM air passengers domestically, I don’t see us getting into 2021 with under 1.5MM daily without a SEVERE second wave that cripples the country again, and that sets up for back to “normal” levels mid next year

[wadesworld]

Disagree. Look at the reactions in many places already. Over time, regardless of vaccine or treatment, people are going to go back to normal.  People aren’t going to completely put their lives on hold forever, they just won’t. There are plenty of infectious diseases out there far more deadly that people just accept. Better cleaning/sanitization and personal hygiene practices perhaps, but even without a vaccine, people won’t let this hold them down forever.  And that’s not even talking potential immunities like happened with the Spanish Flu years ago.

VERY different IMO.  Flying didn’t kill directly people in this case.  It’s not less “safe” than a train, or a bus, or a ride share.  Not to mention there is an inherent fear with flying due to lack of control that a major terrorist event exacerbated.  You can look at how fast air passenger travel is bouncing back. In April it was around 4-4.5% of normal volume in the US.  Sunday was already back to 15% of comparative volume. And it’s been increasing steadily not wildly volatile. I’d imagine we’d be at 20-25% of normal volume by July 4th.  There may be a “new norm” due to airline/route consolidation and some changes in corporate travel. But if a normal day was around 2.5MM air passengers domestically, I don’t see us getting into 2021 with under 1.5MM daily without a SEVERE second wave that cripples the country again, and that sets up for back to “normal” levels mid next year

There's a vast middle ground somewhere between "back to normal" and "completely put their lives on hold."  For as much as the "reactions in many places" are, life is nowhere near " back to normal" still.  And we have to see what the results of the "reactions in many places" are.

If there is no successful vaccine or antibody, things will not be "back to normal," but they also won't be "completely putting their lives on hold."  You won't see packed athletic stadiums, but maybe you see partially filled athletic stadiums.  Maybe you see sport schedules move around depending on when "covid season" is.  Offices will have people working from home when possible, limiting work travel, etc.  These things wouldn't be close to "back to normal," and without a treatment or vaccine I think it's what you'll see.

Even with a vaccine and/or treatment, there will be some changes to everyday life.

[GooooMarquette]

There's a vast middle ground somewhere between "back to normal" and "completely put their lives on hold."  For as much as the "reactions in many places" are, life is nowhere near " back to normal" still.  And we have to see what the results of the "reactions in many places" are.

If there is no successful vaccine or antibody, things will not be "back to normal," but they also won't be "completely putting their lives on hold."  You won't see packed athletic stadiums, but maybe you see partially filled athletic stadiums.  Maybe you see sport schedules move around depending on when "covid season" is.  Offices will have people working from home when possible, limiting work travel, etc.  These things wouldn't be close to "back to normal," and without a treatment or vaccine I think it's what you'll see.

Even with a vaccine and/or treatment, there will be some changes to everyday life.

That is how I view it. People are not going to put off their lives forever, but I suspect “normal“ will be different.

Vacations and restaurants will take a while, but they will be back. That said, we will probably see an even faster move away from mom and pop resorts and restaurants toward chains that have the resources to weather the storm.

The most significant long-term impacts I see are businesses requiring more employees to work remotely, and more closely scrutinizing the need for work-related travel. We already had a trend in this direction before COVID, and I suspect companies will have plenty of information to evaluate which in-office employees and business trips are really necessary.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

We are going to a family run resort this weekend in central WI.  They've sent out their covid procedures and we are complely comfortable going there.

[4everwarriors]

Bee sure ta give da rest of us an updated review on Sybaris, hey?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Bee sure ta give da rest of us an updated review on Sybaris, hey?

Will do.  Glad you got permission to reopen.  Dump some chemicals in for me, aina?

[tower912]

First day open.   Dinner on an outdoor deck.    Happy birthday to me.   

[JWags85]

Was in Columbus over the weekend. Had lunch on an outdoor patio and dinner at an upscale restaurant. The patio was fairly normal as it was booths and larger tables so it was never “not socially distant”. Dinner was indoors but I’d say about 50% capacity with plenty of spacing. All staff at both were wearing masks. Felt completely safe and fairly “normal”. Wouldn’t hesitate to do it again

[MU82]

Mrs. 82 and I had our first night out with another couple since mid-March.

Sat outside, but none of the staff wore masks - not our server, not the helpers who brought out food, not the kitchen staff, not even the manager who came by and asked how everything was.

We were disappointed in that, and my wife wrote the manager an email saying we won't go back there either until the coronavirus threat has completely passed or unless they adopt a policy requiring all employees to wear masks. She cut and pasted a policy from a nearby rival restaurant and said that's what they should follow. The manager responded, saying we could have asked our server to put on a mask, but otherwise they have no policy requiring them.

We're going to the other restaurant this week. It's just as good, anyway.

[reinko]

Not surprising, but SHEESH

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1278766321610735620?s=21